EP 40: Russia Provided Targeting Data for Houthi
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Summary: In this episode we detail Russia's alleged provision of targeting data to the Houthi rebels in Yemen, enabling them to launch attacks on Western ships in the Red Sea. This assistance highlights Russia's efforts to undermine the U.S.-led global order and destabilize regions where its partners are engaged in conflicts with the U.S. and its allies. We also discuss the potential consequences of Russia's involvement, including the heightened risk of escalation and the potential for the Houthis to acquire more advanced weaponry. Questions to consider as you read/listen:  1. How has Russia’s support of the Houthis impacted the stability of the Middle East and global trade? 2. What are the implications of Russia’s growing military partnerships with Iran and North Korea for global security 3.What are the potential consequences of Russia’s involvement in the conflict between the Houthis and the United States and its allies? Long format:  Russia Provided Targeting Data for Houthi Assault on Global Shipping Per the Wall Street Journal. Russia provided targeting data for Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier this year, helping the Iranian-backed group assault a major artery for global trade and further destabilizing the region. The Houthis, which began their attacks late last year over the Gaza war, eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes, said a person familiar with the matter and two European defense officials. The data was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen, one of the people said. The assistance, which hasn’t been previously reported, shows how far Russian President Vladimir Putinis willing to go to undermine the U.S.-led Western economic and political order. Russia, in this case, supported the Iran-backed Houthis, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist group, as they carried out a series of attacks in one of the world’s most heavily traveled shipping routes. More broadly, Russia has sought to stoke instability from the Middle East to Asia to create problems for the U.S., analysts say. The widening conflict in the Middle East, triggered by last year’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, has absorbed resources and attention at a time when Washington has sought to focus on the threatsfrom Russia and China. “For Russia, any flare up anywhere is good news, because it takes the world’s attention further away from Ukraine and the U.S. needs to commit resources—Patriot systems or artillery shells—and with the Middle East in play, it’s clear where the U.S. will choose,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a think tank based in Berlin. A spokesman for the Russian government didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. A Houthi spokesman declined to comment. Moscow has sought to build tighter military partnerships with autocracies, pulling Iran and North Korea deeper into its Ukraine war effort. The countries have provided ammunition, drones and missiles, and North Korea sent 3,000 troopsto train in Russia in recent weeks, according to U.S. and South Korean officials. The assistance gives battlefield help to Russia, which is running short on manpower and materiel, but it also serves Moscow’s strategic aims by destabilizing two regions where its partners are facing off against the U.S. and its allies. South Korea, a top U.S. ally in East Asia, has expressed increasing concern at the prospect that North Koreans could gain battlefield experience through their exposure to the Ukraine war. South Korea is one of the world’s fastest-growing weapons manufacturers, and Seoul has warned it would take measures in response, including potentially sending lethal aid to Ukraine. While South Korea has sent weapons to countries supporting Ukraine, it has declined to send arms directly. In the Middle East, the Russian assistance underscores a tectonic shift in its strategy. Putin has strengthened ties with Iran, while turning a cold shoulder to his longstanding relationship with Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel has engaged in a growing conflict with Iran and the militias it backs in the region, such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Putin has criticized the U.S. and Israel over the Gaza conflict. On Thursday, he said the region was on the brink of a full-scale war. The Houthis began launching their attacks in the Red Sea, where ships travel to and from the Suez Canal, late last year in protest against Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza, and continued them through the first months of this year. In total, the militants have attacked more than 100 ships since November 2023, sinking two and hijacking another. The attacks caused major disruptions to global trade, as shippers diverted vessels for a period south around the Cape of Good Hope, a longer and more expensive voyage. Almost 1-in-10 barrels of oil shipped every day worldwide transit through Bab al-Mandab, the strait that separates the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean. The tanker traffic through that route was 77% lower in August 2024 compared with October 2023, according to Windward, a maritime-intelligence company. The U.S. vowed to protect the international shipping lanes, and in December of last year launched a multinational naval coalition to escort ships traveling through the strait. By April, the U.S. had spent some $1 billion on munitions to knock out Houthi drones and missiles and protect shipping in the Red Sea. The U.S. has since gone further and earlier this month sent B-2 Spirit bombers to strike Houthi arsenals. The U.S. has been concerned that Russia could escalate the situation further by providing the Houthis with Russian antiship or antiair missiles that could threaten the U.S. military’s efforts to protect ships in the region, but there is so far no evidence that Russia has done so. Earlier this month, Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who had recently been released from a U.S. prison in a prisoner swap with Moscow was trying to broker the saleof about $10 million worth of automatic small arms to the Houthis, The Wall Street Journal has reported. It was unclear whether the sale had been initiated or blessed by the Kremlin. Since the Houthis started attacking vessels connected to Israel and its allies almost a year ago, most vessels undertaking the dangerous crossing near their territories have started switching off their radio signals, complicating efforts to track them. Once a vessel goes dark, its live movements can only be continuously accessed through high-quality satellite imaging. Commercially available satellite services tend to suffer gaps in coverage and delays in transmission. Tankers carrying Russian oil cargoes, including by Kremlin-connected Rosneft, have been attacked by the Houthis on several occasions. But these shipments are carried out through a so-called ghost fleetowned by shell companies to evade sanctions whose Russian connection is only known by a close circle of Russian oil officials and market players. ——/// My take on it is this is major revelation. If this assistance can be linked to the June 2023 Houthi attack where the Houthi’s launched a barrage of missiles that got with 200 meters of the multi billion dollar US aircraft carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower and the Similar close calls were reported, including a January incident involving a missile that nearly struck the USS  Gravely(DDG-107), this is pretty big.  Now the administration did attack the Houthis by way of a B2 strike on hardened bunkers and missile facilities on October 16, 2024 Sources: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3937640/statement-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-on-us-airstrikes-in-houthi/) https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/just-200-meters-away-houthi-missile-nearly-struck-navy-aircraft-carrier-213258) https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-provided-targeting-data-for-houthi-assault-on-global-shipping-eabc2c2b) Get full access to GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack at geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe)