Julia's US Election Special with Amy Walter

2024/10/8

A Podcast of One's Own with Julia Gillard

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Amy Walter

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Amy Walter: 本次美国总统大选，女性选民比男性选民更倾向于支持民主党候选人，这一性别差距是长期存在的现象，本次大选的关键在于这一差距会扩大到什么程度。此外，经济问题和移民问题是本次大选的关键议题。特朗普在经济和移民问题上更占优势，但其优势正在缩小，因为哈里斯专注于降低生活成本，例如药品和住房成本，而特朗普则更关注宏观经济政策。生殖权也是一个关键议题，对哈里斯有利，可能影响选民投票率。选举人团制度决定了总统选举结果，少数几个摇摆州对选举结果至关重要，其中宾夕法尼亚州是关键州。在摇摆州中，亚利桑那州的移民问题、内华达州的经济状况、佐治亚州的黑人选民投票率、北卡罗来纳州的飓风灾害以及威斯康星州和密歇根州的人口结构变化和劳工历史等因素都会影响选举结果。宾夕法尼亚州的选举结果将受到选民对哈里斯的熟悉程度、费城的投票率以及对水力压裂法的看法等多种因素的影响。哈里斯作为首位竞选总统的有色女性，其受到的待遇与希拉里·克林顿不同，性别和种族对其公众形象的影响方式也有所不同。虽然哈里斯已经巩固了拜登的大部分选票，但她能否在最后几天巩固所有选票仍是未知数。特朗普则似乎正在争取那些一直支持他以及一些其他工薪阶层的有色人种选民。 Julia Gillard: 作为主持人，Julia Gillard主要负责引导话题，提出问题，并对Amy Walter的分析进行总结和回应，没有提出自己独立的政治观点。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What makes the 2024 US presidential election historically significant?

The 2024 US presidential election is historically significant due to several unprecedented events: two assassination attempts on Republican nominee Donald Trump, Trump becoming the first US president convicted of a felony, and President Joe Biden withdrawing from the race after a disastrous debate performance, leading to Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the first woman of color to run for the White House.

How does the US Electoral College system work?

The US Electoral College system allocates a certain number of electoral votes to each state based on its population, with a minimum of three votes per state. A candidate needs 270 out of 538 electoral votes to win the presidency. The system was designed by the founding fathers to temper the passions of voters, with elites ensuring the right person is chosen. The popular vote does not determine the president; instead, electoral votes from each state do.

What are the key swing states in the 2024 US election?

The key swing states in the 2024 US election are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. These states are evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans and will likely determine the outcome of the election due to their combined 70+ electoral votes.

Why is Pennsylvania considered a critical state in the 2024 election?

Pennsylvania is critical in the 2024 election because it holds 19 electoral votes, making it a key state for both candidates to reach the 270-vote threshold. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by 68,000 votes, and Biden won it in 2020 by 80,000 votes, highlighting its narrow margin of victory. The state's urban-rural divide and its historical labor union influence make it highly competitive.

How is the issue of reproductive rights influencing the 2024 election?

Reproductive rights are a central issue in the 2024 election, especially after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. States have since legislated varying levels of abortion access, with some imposing near-total bans. Kamala Harris has made reproductive rights a key part of her campaign, while Trump has tried to distance himself from the Dobbs decision. The issue is expected to drive voter turnout, particularly among women and younger voters.

What role does gender play in the 2024 US election?

Gender plays a significant role in the 2024 election, with Kamala Harris being the first woman of color to run for president. Polls show a notable gender gap, with women more supportive of Harris (54%) than men (44%). Historically, women have voted more consistently for Democrats, while men lean Republican. The election will reveal whether this gap widens further, especially among Black and Latino voters.

How is the economy shaping voter sentiment in the 2024 election?

The economy is a major issue in the 2024 election, with Trump emphasizing his past economic performance and criticizing Bidenomics for rising inflation and cost-of-living pressures. While Trump leads on economic issues in polls, Harris has narrowed the gap by focusing on affordability, such as lowering prescription drug and housing costs. Voter sentiment remains mixed, with some feeling less pessimistic about inflation as wages catch up with living costs.

What impact could abortion referendums have on the 2024 election?

Abortion referendums in states like Arizona and Florida could significantly impact the 2024 election by driving voter turnout. In 2022, abortion referendums increased turnout and benefited Democrats. This year, similar referendums aim to expand reproductive access, potentially motivating voters who prioritize reproductive rights over other issues, even if they support Trump on other matters.

How is immigration influencing the 2024 election?

Immigration is a key issue in the 2024 election, with Trump focusing on record numbers of migrants at the US border and their impact on cities like New York and Chicago. Polls show Trump leading on immigration, though Harris has narrowed the gap. The issue resonates with voters concerned about border security and the strain on city services, making it a critical part of Trump's campaign strategy.

What are the potential outcomes of the 2024 US election?

The 2024 US election is expected to be extremely close, with Pennsylvania likely determining the outcome. Polls show 95% of voters sticking with the same party they supported in 2020, leaving a small percentage of undecided or third-party voters to decide the race. If polling is slightly off, the election could result in a landslide, but current trends suggest a narrow margin similar to 2016 and 2020.

Chapters

This chapter explains the basics of the American electoral system, focusing on the Electoral College. It clarifies how the electoral votes are distributed among states and the significance of swing states in determining the election outcome. The concept of "safe seats" and "marginal seats" is also introduced, setting the stage for a discussion on the key swing states.

The US presidential election is determined by the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
Each state has a certain number of electoral votes, and a candidate needs 270 to win.
Swing states, which are evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, play a crucial role in determining the election outcome.

Shownotes Transcript

It’s been arguably the most eventful US Presidential campaign in history and the stakes couldn’t be higher, not just for the United States, but for the world.

There’s been two assassination attempts on Republican nominee Donald Trump, who became the first US President to be convicted of a felony over hush money payments to an adult film star.

We've seen President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden sensationally withdraw from the race after the most disastrous presidential debate performance in history and replaced by America’s first woman of colour to run for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris.

In this special US election episode, Julia sits down with American political analyst, Amy Walter from The Cook Political Report, for a deep dive on each swing state, the current state of play, how gender and reproductive rights are influencing the campaign and what we can expect when voters head to the polls on November 5.

Show notes:

To learn more about the electoral college ratings, go to: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-president/)

To learn more about the states where abortion is on the ballot, go to:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/abortion-ballot-measures/)

Bruce Wolpe is an expert on US and Australian politics, having worked in the US Congress during President Barack Obama's first term and as a senior advisor to A Podcast of One’s Own host, Julia Gillard, when she was Prime Minister. His book, Trump’s Australia, is published by Allen & Unwin:

https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Bruce-Wolpe-Trump's-Australia-9781761068096) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy) for more information.

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