cover of episode Best of: Computation cracks cold cases

Best of: Computation cracks cold cases

2024/11/1
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The Future of Everything

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Lawrence Wein
R
Russ Altman
Topics
Russ Altman: 本集讨论了如何利用数学模型和算法分析家系数据库中的DNA数据,从而帮助执法部门侦破冷案。即使犯罪嫌疑人不在数据库中,也可以通过分析其亲属的DNA数据来缩小侦查范围。 Lawrence Wein: 法医基因家谱学(FGG)通过分析家系数据库中的DNA数据,帮助侦破悬而未决的案件。在无法通过直接DNA比对找到犯罪嫌疑人时,可以利用第三方数据库(如GEDmatch和Family Tree DNA)寻找嫌疑人的亲属,从而缩小侦查范围。家谱学家利用这些信息构建家谱,最终确定犯罪嫌疑人。 该团队开发了一种数学模型,旨在优化家谱构建过程,提高效率。该模型将家谱构建过程分为两个阶段:向上追溯祖先和向下追溯后代。通过比较传统方法和该团队提出的算法,发现该算法在效率上高出传统方法10倍以上。 该算法是一个纯算法过程,不需要人工干预,但可以与家谱学家的工作相结合,提高效率。家谱学家仍然在法医基因家谱学中发挥重要作用,他们利用地理位置、种族等信息辅助算法进行分析。 法医基因家谱学涉及伦理和隐私问题,例如目标测试(target testing)。目前执法部门已经开始进行目标测试,但缺乏对该方法的伦理和隐私影响的评估。该团队的研究旨在为伦理学家和政策制定者提供信息,帮助他们做出明智的决策。 Lawrence Wein: 法医基因家谱学(FGG)的出现,解决了传统方法难以侦破冷案的问题。通过利用公开的家谱数据库,结合数学模型和算法,可以高效地分析DNA数据,找到犯罪嫌疑人的亲属,最终确定嫌疑人。 该团队提出的算法,通过优化家谱构建过程,显著提高了效率。算法将家谱构建分为向上追溯祖先和向下追溯后代两个阶段,并通过计算概率来选择最有效的搜索路径,从而避免了传统方法中存在的低效和错误。 虽然算法可以独立运行,但家谱学家的专业知识仍然至关重要。家谱学家可以利用地理位置、种族等信息,辅助算法进行分析,提高准确性和效率。 法医基因家谱学也带来了一些伦理和隐私问题,例如目标测试。在目标测试中,执法部门会直接联系到数据库中未登记的嫌疑人亲属,要求提供DNA样本,这涉及到个人隐私和知情权的问题。 该团队正在研究如何改进算法,以减少对目标测试的依赖,并正在研究如何评估目标测试的伦理和隐私影响,为相关政策制定提供参考。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is forensic genetic genealogy and how does it help solve cold cases?

Forensic genetic genealogy uses DNA traces to identify criminals by analyzing partial matches in third-party ancestry databases. It involves matching DNA from crime scenes to relatives in databases like GEDmatch, then using genealogists and mathematical algorithms to build family trees and identify suspects.

How does the mathematical algorithm improve the efficiency of forensic genealogy?

The algorithm optimizes the process by focusing on potential ancestors of the target, prioritizing matches that are more likely to lead to the criminal. It reduces the workload by avoiding false leads and inefficient tree expansion, solving cases up to 10 times faster than traditional methods.

What are the ethical concerns surrounding the use of genetic data in forensic genealogy?

Ethical issues include privacy violations for individuals whose DNA is collected without consent, especially when law enforcement knocks on doors to request DNA samples. There are also concerns about the long-term storage and potential misuse of genetic data, as well as the broader implications for family members whose DNA is indirectly included in the database.

How do genealogists contribute to the process alongside the mathematical algorithm?

Genealogists use their expertise in tracing family trees, often relying on geography, ethnicity, and historical records that the algorithm doesn't consider. They act as a complement to the algorithm, helping to resolve complex cases and providing insights that the mathematical model cannot capture.

What is the role of third-party DNA databases in forensic genealogy?

Third-party databases like GEDmatch and Family Tree DNA provide lists of potential relatives based on DNA matches. These databases are crucial for identifying distant relatives of the suspect, which helps genealogists and algorithms narrow down the family tree to find the perpetrator.

Why did the Golden State Killer case become a landmark for forensic genetic genealogy?

The Golden State Killer case marked the first high-profile use of forensic genetic genealogy to solve a decades-old cold case. It demonstrated the potential of combining DNA analysis with family tree research to identify a previously untraceable suspect, even when the suspect's DNA was not directly in the database.

How does the algorithm handle the complexity of building family trees?

The algorithm uses a two-stage process: ascending to find ancestors and descending to trace descendants. It prioritizes matches that are more likely to be related to the target, minimizing unnecessary work by avoiding overshooting or undershooting in the tree construction.

What is the significance of the centimorgan value in DNA matching?

The centimorgan value measures the amount of shared DNA between individuals, indicating how closely they are related. It helps in determining the likelihood of a match being a distant relative, which is crucial for building accurate family trees and identifying suspects.

What is the current status of DNA databases and law enforcement access?

Databases like GEDmatch have transitioned to an opt-in system, where users must consent to allow law enforcement access. This change was prompted by privacy concerns after the Golden State Killer case, but only about 30% of users currently opt in.

How does the algorithm interact with human genealogists in practice?

The algorithm provides recommendations for which matches to investigate next, based on mathematical optimization. Genealogists then perform the actual research, such as looking up marriage records or birth certificates, and feed the results back into the algorithm to refine the search.

Chapters
This chapter explores the use of forensic genetic genealogy (FGG) in solving cold cases. It explains the process of using DNA from crime scenes, comparing it with third-party databases like GEDmatch, and employing mathematical models to build family trees and identify potential suspects.
  • Forensic genetic genealogy uses DNA from crime scenes and third-party databases to identify suspects.
  • Mathematical models help streamline the genealogy process.
  • The Golden State Killer case is used as an example of a successful FGG investigation.

Shownotes Transcript

Halloween may be behind us in the US but here at The Future of Everything we’re not quite done with spooky season. If you’re pairing your trick-or-treat haul with some scary movies, we invite you to revisit with us a conversation Russ had with Lawrence Wein) a couple years ago about the work he’s doing in forensic genetic genealogy to crack cold cases. Professor Wein shares how he’s using math to catch criminals through traces of their DNA. It’s both haunting and hopeful, and we hope you’ll take another listen.

Have a question for Russ? Send it our way in writing or via voice memo, and it might be featured on an upcoming episode. Please introduce yourself, let us know where you're listening from, and share your quest. You can send questions to [email protected]).

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Chapters:

(00:00:00) Introduction

Russ Altman introduces guest Lawrence Wein, professor of management science at Stanford University.

(00:02:18) Forensic Genealogy Explained

Forensic genetic genealogy and its impact on solving unsolved crimes.

(00:04:31) Third-Party Databases in Genealogy

Insight into databases that allow law enforcement to search for criminal suspects.

(00:08:23) Math Models in Genealogy

Using mathematical models to streamline genealogy work.

(00:11:31) Components of the Genealogy Algorithm

The algorithm's methods, including ascending and descending family trees.

(00:14:12) Algorithm Efficiency and Comparison

Comparing the new algorithm's effectiveness to traditional genealogy strategies.

(00:16:53) Algorithm in Practice

Role of human input alongside the mathematical algorithm in genealogy cases.

(00:20:42) Role of Genealogists

Genealogists’ insights on balancing human skill and mathematical algorithms.

(00:22:45) DNA Databases and Ethics

The ethical and privacy concerns related to using genetic data.

(00:27:01) Background and Interest in Forensic Genealogy

Lawrence’s journey from operations management to forensic genealogy.

(00:30:16) Conclusion

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