Wall Street, tech and energy during Trump’s second term
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Last week, american voters picked Donald trump to be the country's next president after four years under president. Show bin this signals that there's likely going to be a lot of changes ahead become january twenty, twenty five.

It's still early days and there are a lot of unknown, but to get a Better picture around how things might check out, I wanna to speak with some of my colleagues to try and understand how a second trumpet administration will impact a few key sectors in corporate america. So today on the show, we're gonna through each of those, starting with wall street, then the tech sector and then energy. We're not going to talk about how these industries are adJusting to the next trump administration, who said to succeed a and struggle over the following four years. So let's get down to IT. I'm michelin dera from the financial times, and this is behind the money.

To get IT off, I wanna talk about wall street. So to do that, i'm joined here in new york by the F, T, U, S. Financial editor book masters.

Hi, break. welcome. hi. okay. So we will get to what to expect under a second trumpet administration. But first, let's review a bit. The last four years on wall street, you know, markets have certainly been doing pretty well.

I mean, markets have been relatively strong, so it's been okay. But the bite administration in two ways has made what should feel very constraint. First knew they had a very tough attitude towards deals because of their competition regulation.

So they just meant there were less deals and lots of deals didn't go through. So everybody on all street who makes their money off buying and telling companies to each other hates that. The other thing that happened was at the banking and security regulators, there was a definite clampdown. The banks, particular after the two thousand twenty three regional banking crisis, were under much tougher scrutiny, and there were proposals to gradually increase the amount of capital they had to hold, particularly for the largest banks.

Bozzle three and game.

yeah, the bozzle three end game, which the banks have spent a year and a ton of money fighting. And then the other thing that happens, the security's exchange commission was LED by gary gangs. Or and on a absolute regulatory blitz, you pumping out new rules all the time, many of them the industry probably could have lived with, but all piled together just created a sense of absolute fury. And so they started showing to stop him in a relations with the industry were bitter and angry.

So overall, the biden administration has been seen as a significant drag on the industry. So what was the immediate reaction to trump went last .

week as an industry, everybody was guilty. I mean, bank stocks shot up ten percent. There's a general sense that deal making is back, that life will be easier for banks. Private equity is excited. I mean, it's definitely in a party time on wall street right now.

So then what are your sources telling you will be the biggest changes that wall street can expect under a trump two point o presidency?

Well, I think the first big changes, the bozzle in game effort to put more capital requirements, ments is dead. The banks are deciding whether to make a big fight to try comines the trap administration to actually lose some things. So that's a big question whether that will happen on the S, C, C side.

Gangers going to be gone. Whoever is heading the C, C, their general instinct will be less regulation. And when they do do regulations to work more closely with the industry, the industry folks I talk to aren't expecting a huge deregulation taking away. All the things canceled did. But even if they can stop what they see as an unwarranted piling up, that a big improvement for them.

Now, on trumps economic policies, two things that he campaigned on, our tax cuts, and an also some pretty aggressive Terry fs, how will those measures impact wall street? Well.

obviously, lower taxes means people have more savings, which they have more money to invest in the markets, which and IT s just great for money managers, and in general means companies have more money to invest. They can do more deals. It's all good for wall street.

Um terriers are more complicated and actually tabs are potentially inflationary because I put Prices up high. Inflation is not too good for wall street because that means interest rates to get higher. So I think there is some concern that if it's overdone and the tabs are done badly, that could particularly the sub sort of economic downturn or to run away inflation, that's bad. So they are hoping, I think, that the trump administration doesn't go overboard with some of the more radical ideas.

So as you say, the terrace are definitely a long term risk for the economy, an impact that they could have on markets. Um but one other risks, should we be thinking about what I think one .

thing is this question of how much power ty land mask is gonna have and whether there are really is going to be kind of a bond fire of the federal government where they are going advantages of people and try to really push their look I mean said they're going to IT is never clear how much truth means and how much if IT is retaliate that would be a big change.

right? Elan must contributed more than one hundred million dollars to approve trump s super pack during the campaign has been talk of a role for him in the administration. What do you think could happen if he is allowed to fire a bunch of people in the government?

So if you drive people out of the government, you end up having non experts and not very confident people working in your regulators. It's very easy to miss risk, is also possible to deregulate too much. One example people have brought up to me recently is in two and nineteen, the trump s.

Administration reduced some of the oversight and capital requirements for large ish but not huge banks. They said, you know what actually have been to mean to those banks will reduce some of their requirements. Some of those banks then failed in twenty twenty three and caused the regional banking crisis. And there's a pretty direct line there. So know poorly thought out regulation, particularly when coupled with A D scaling of the regulatory agencies who change for trouble, can be a disaster.

What about an area like crypto? You know, certainly, now that elon mosques tied very closely to trump, what's the outlook for the crypto space is possible .

if republic control both dozens of congress that theyll be able to put together an actual plan to regulate cyp. To cause a problem with crypto is IT doesn't neatly fit in to the existing regulatory structure. The sec has been using its enforcement power to go after people.

And with a more ecri pto friendly administration, there may be less enforcement, but there might also actually just be a law that says this is how we're onna regulate crypto, which I think the crypto to industry would in some is very much like because i'd like some rules of the road. It's only there will be no enforcement. It's just that it's certains opening the door to having more crypto you available to ordinary retAiling investors in a form that's relatively palatable to them.

Uh so changing years a bit here um under a new triumph presidency, who do you expect to be the biggest winner on wall .

street private equity? I think because as long as interest rates don't get too high, because they'll be able to do lots of deals and roll things up and not have to worry about any trust scrutiny.

Yeah and under a trump presidency, who would you expect on wall street to be the biggest loser.

biggest loser from trump? But I think if there's a backlash because and something goes wrong, then the whole industry gets in trouble. But otherwise, I suppose the other group that could be at risk is if you are a well behave bank that has invested heavily in compliance and gotten ready to comply with all these rules and you now have competitors who don't have to, you may be struggling. So some of the sort of stayed boring banks that have just tried to be good could face new chAllenges from other players.

Rock, thanks for being here.

Thanks for having being.

Next step, let's jump over the california where I went to welcome the F T. Send to scope reo chief s Stephen Morris. Stephen leads reporting coverage of the world's biggest tech companies in vidia OpenAI microsoft. Hey, Stephen, how are you?

Yeah, i'm good. Thank you. Has been busy few days.

Yeah, I am sure. So starting off, broad strokes here describe for me how things have been going for big tech over the last four years under the big administration.

From a share Price and performance standpoint, it's been an extraordinary period of success for some of america's biggest tech companies. Google, microsoft and video meter. Tesla have seen year their market valuation skyrocket.

Times have been good, but it's been evident for a while that these tech companies have formed monopoly and then acted pretty aggressively to ensure that they stay at top of the food chain, in search, in apple stores, in e commerce, in chip making. So the flip side of the biden years has been that the democrat half pursued a more activist, empt, I trust, agenda, and a more activist regulatory investigation agda. So you have these companies that record stock Prices argument, the apex of their power, but still at the same time facing existential threats from anti trust officials. So it's really you that the situation is both incredibly powerful, incredibly precarious. But the election of trump I would take kind of definitively changes this, right?

So what kinds of opportunities do you think silicon values seeing for themselves? You know, entering a new trumpet administration.

I think the big area for them is policy, policy towards regulation, policy towards anti trust, policy towards M A N deal making.

right on those things. I mean, there is an expectation the deal makings is going to increase and the anti trust and regulation burns will be lighten some. So what does all that mean for attack? If more deals .

are allowed in tech sector will will see the big players stopped to get even bigger, will also see venture capture list and private equity firms leaking their lips at the prospect of selling some of their portfolio companies to the fall. Mention big tech ones or to each other. Since the explosion of deal making in twenty twenty one, it's really been a quiet time.

Could remember. It's not just deals being blocked, is the fear of deals being blocked. You know of these things are very expensive.

They take a long time to put together with lawyers and advises and you're not going to embark that if you think the ftc, D O J or somebody else is just going to put the ability on IT after you've worked on IT for six months. But now the threat of that has been substantially lifted. So i'm told by lawyers out there that, you know, the conversations are already starting in board rooms .

with regulation. Trumps promise to cancel binton executive order on artificial intelligence, which know some of the things that were part of that were requiring developers of A I systems to share information with the U. S. government. What does that sort of mean for the future of A I industry?

Yes, mean, obviously the very top end generative A I systems have the potential to be incredibly powerful, are uncertain people, including a must think, incredibly dangerous in terms of the future of humanity. So there are arguments going on about how this technology should be regulators and whether any laws should come in. Now obviously, IT moves so quickly, it's very hard to do this.

And there are very few people in in washington or elsewhere who actually understand how this technology works and how best to control IT. So I think that's one of the top things on the agenda. But how this all shakes out in the incredibly fast moving world of ai remains to be seen. But I think is gonna a be much more interesting from both a competitive perspective within the U. S, but also globally.

But what about something like trust plans in in tariff? S, I mean, won't that have a negative impact on a lot of hardship? Manufacturer.

well, the X A very interesting in tourists in a number of areas. It's not just electric vehicles. It's every part of the tech supply chain, from apple and its ubiquitous iphones to and video in the way that IT makes GPU. Trump caused a lot of issues on this and was very unpredictable in his first term. So everyone, we keeping IT extremely close eye on how trump approaches trade tariff s trade war with china in his second term and that could have severe impacts on some of these big tech companies and how they build their are hardware so terrible be an area of big importance.

So we mentioned earlier elon mask and his role in the trumpet administration, and you've been reporting on him quite a Better. Can you tell me more just what is musk hoping to do with this new file relationship with trump?

Well, mosques made extraordinary, unprecedented intervention into the election is very clear that mask, at least that the moment has no plans to leave politics, had this floated role of the year ahead of the department of government efficiency, did he spoken pretty freely about wanting to slash two trillion dollars from the U. S.

Budget, firing thousands of people from the vast federal bureaucracy and eliminating a wide range of regulations, which he blames for stiffing american innovation, putting them at a disadvantage against their enemies such as russia in china. But let's not overlook the very concrete self interest and business interest here. Must runs tesla, worlds largest element c vehicle maker.

He runs space x, which pretty much runs the us. Space program. At this point, starling, which is growing into a legitimate chAllenger to why a brobson around the world and then because x the social media platform, all of these companies face significant regulatory probes, um legal chAllenges uh and obstacles to growing and becoming more profitable and powerful. Having the year of the president is an excEllent position for us to be in to unblock some of those chAllenges and become even more powerful and wealthy himself.

And what would you say that all means for silicon valley more broadly?

So IT looks like after really decades of silicon valley in the tech sector are almost kind of trying to ignore dc and the political scene. We're going to see a much, much more active period from them spearheaded by musk, who for as long as he and Donald trump remain in sanon and each others friends will likely play a very influential role in the direction of the government. And how would approaches things like regulation .

and deal making under a tram presidency in tech? Who would you say would be the biggest winner?

Elon mk.

what about the biggest loser.

anyone elon musk takes against?

Um Steven, thanks for your time.

Thank you so much.

What's two of a security on cracking? Let's say i'm captaing my soccer team and we're up by a goal against, I don't know, soda springs fc, do we relax no way time to create an extra line of events and protect that lead that's like to have they on cracking a sure fire way to keep what you already have safe and sound. Go to crack in dot com and see what. Credu be.

Next step we're going to talk about the energy sector, oil, gas, fracking, renewables, all of IT. So to do that, i'm joined by Jamie smith, the F, T, U, S. Energy editor here in new york. Hey Jamie, how are you 去了？

没 看 了。

okay. So to start off, I wanted talk about the energy sector under the by administration, how things been going over the last four years. Just give me a temperature check.

So the oil and gas sector, really viewed by the as a threat to their industry, you know he had a very strong regulatory hit, a lot of climate policies, and he was also willing to attack the industry publicly. He famously accused axon of making more money than god after russia's invasion of ukraine when the Price of oil went through the roof. So it's no surprise that the oil energy was among the top donors to trumps campaign.

Now a major theme in britten's presidency was the surge in Green energy investments. He passed the inflation reduction act, his flagship climate law, and that is attracted four hundred and fifty billion in investments into solar, wind, low carbon tech. And you've begun to see the beginning of U. S. Supply chains being built up to help grow these industries.

Yeah, you mention that oil and gas company executives are some of trump s big donors to his campaign. So what was the immediate reaction among the energy sector to trump win?

Well, the oil and gas companies are celebrating a haliburton and Williams chief executives on last week's earnings calls were really upbeat there, saying this is gonna be a huge boon for their industry. In contrast, we're seen in the renewable sector share Prices diving after trumps factory, sun power was done to thirty percent, plug power was done twenty percent. So you know, they're very worried.

What are your sources telling you could be the biggest changes for the energy sector over the next four years once trump takes office? What are you seeing as the big themes?

So trump on the campaign trail put out a huge laundry list of things that he wanted to achieve in these areas of energy and climate. And I think we're going to see a lot of them put into place. So for example, bindon's regulatory agenda is gonna unpicked.

You know, I think you're gone to see the tough median emissions rules, the power plant emissions rules, which he put in place. I think they're gonna scrapped, particularly if trump gets full control of the house, he's gone to withdraw the U. S.

From the palace climate agreement and potentially he's gonna a withdraw the U. S. From the U.

N. Framework as well, which makes that really difficult for the U. S. To get back in. You can expect trump to open up federal lands for drilling.

You can expect them to open up the elastic wilderness for drilling for oil. You can see, uh, far more leases being offered in the gulf of mexico for offshore drilling. But I think it's unclear if we're actually gonna see an increase in oil and gas production because IT takes time to drill.

And critically, oil Prices of the minute are for because of weak global demand. So the last thing that industry wants to do is drill, baby drill, is trump as suggesting, which could crash Prices and hit their profits. So I think that's one caveat that we have to mention here.

One area of the energy sector that made some big games this year is nuclear power. So i'm curious what is trumps position on IT?

So nuclear is one of the very few areas and energy and climate policy where you get by parties an agreement that nuclear expansion is a good thing. So both the republicans and the democrats are in favor of nuclear park. The democrats have put in a huge amount of federal investment into the sector.

So I think under trump, there would be that continuation of supportive policies, but potentially, there might not be as many tax dollars flowing into the sector. There's huge public subsidies pushed into the nuclear. If that scaled back, then there's gonna less avenues for the nuclear sector to tap into.

So under a trump presidency, uh, looking at the energy sector, who you expect to be the biggest winner.

I think the oil and gas industry is certainly the biggest winner. You're onna have a lot more freedom to get their hands on lies and permits, so they are undoubtedly the winners.

Who do you expect to be the biggest loser?

I think certainly the biggest losers probably gonna be the renewable sector, in particular offshore wind, which trump has targeted as a sector that he particularly does not like. I think solar and wind will continue to grow because there's no stopping the energy transition. But IT could grow at a slower at pace because there's gonna be less money around to subsidize.

Well, Jimmy, thanks for stopping by.

Thank you very much.

Behind the money is hosted by me. Mica and the Sophia f med is our producer. Sound designed mixing by C M G of vino and jos sato to for forests is our executive producer.

Cherry romney is the global head of audio. Original music is by hand Brown, thanks for listening. See you next week.

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