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Okay, I am joined by Rick Gaiman of CBS Sports, founder of rickrungood.com, host of the First Cup podcast. He does an odds checker video as well with my good friend Jeff Feinberg. Rick, I am so happy to be joined by you. I don't know if you remember this, but I'm so happy to be joined by you.
But about a year ago, before I started this podcast and I was kind of trying to decide what to do with my life, I sent you an email telling you how much I appreciated your content and if there is any advice or anything you had for someone like me who wanted to get into the space. And you actually responded very quickly and you followed me on Twitter when I maybe had six Twitter followers.
And I will always remember that because you didn't have to do that. I was a complete nobody at the time. And I will never forget that, man, because you really gave me the motivation and laid out the blueprint or so to speak of how to do it. And now here we are, man, people shockingly listen to this podcast and pay me to write and talk about golf. And I have to say, I owe a lot of that to you, my man. Isn't it amazing that people listen to things that we say? Andy, listen, thanks for having me. I'm
Always a big proponent of, you know, people talking about their passions, people doing what they enjoy. I get, I don't get a lot of emails like, hey, I want to get into this. And my usual feedback or my big thing is always like, just start, just start and just start doing it and see what happens and don't stop doing it. You know, for the first six months of what I was doing years ago, I know not a single person heard a word that I said because there was no one was listening.
And I was just talking into the empty internet, right? And it's a little bit tough and demoralizing. So yeah, if I can kind of nudge people and provide some encouragement and say, just keep going, like I like to do that. Well, Rick, I know that there are a lot of people that listen to you now and you have a lot of stuff on your plate. So I will not take any more of your time than we need to. Let's jump right into the Wyndham Championship, my friend. Okay.
Sedgefield Country Club. This is the final event of the regular season. The playoffs start next week at the Northern Trust. So after the completion of this event, only the top 125 in the standings will advance. There are many players such as Ricky Fowler, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Francesco Molinari, just to name a few that will need to play well this week to extend their season. They will be headed to a course where they will need to make birdies. As I mentioned, it is a
par 70 measuring 7,127 yards. It's a Donald Ross design, Bermuda grass greens, Bermuda fairways, Jim Herman won last year at 21 under, and it has consistently ranked Rick as one of the easier courses on tour last year, 30 players finished at 10 under par or better. When you think of central country club, Rick, is there a specific skillset that comes to mind? What are you looking at statistically in terms of what you think might be important at this course?
There certainly is a specific skill set. And the good news about Sedgefield is, number one, we've seen it every year since 2008. So we have a lot of really strong data. Number two, you generally get a similar field every single year. And number three, it's in the same time slot every single year. So the data is really, really strong.
So when I start to go back and look at this and the way that I run the numbers is I do them year by year. Andy, you know, I don't look at, I don't go back to last year's Wyndham championship and say, oh, wow. You know, Jim Herman gained five strokes putting, I don't know if he did, but for example, gained five strokes putting, you have to be a good putter here. It's like, well, no, not really. I mean, he's like the guy who putted well or played well, won the golf tournament. It's not that big of a surprise. So I try to do it like year by year.
So when I start to run my models, you can start to see types of golfers that generally have success at the Wyndham Championship, at Sedgefield, and driving accuracy was the number one most correlated stat to success, which makes a lot of sense. You have to play out of the fairway at Sedgefield. If you do, you have an opportunity to take dead aim. It is a lot. It is certainly not...
It's impossible, but it's a lot more difficult to make birdie out of the rough. And we know you're going to have to make a lot of birdies. Birdie or better percentage was number two and strokes game putting was number three. So I think that passes not only the data test, but it also passes the eye test a little bit for me. When you're thinking about what types of golfers are going to be able to rack up birdies and bunches are going to be able to get to 20, 21 under par are going to be able to find that level of success. And I always love it when the data backs up the eye test as well.
I completely agree. The only other thing that I would throw out too is one thing that really jumped out to me is that there are eight par fours that measure between 400 and 450 yards. So we are getting a lot of the same approach shot distances from a lot of these guys. I noticed that 28% of approach shots come from that 150 to 175 range, which does not sound
like a lot on the surface but when you put that in context with you know the tor average is below 20 or right around 20 you're just getting a lot of eight and nine irons here and if you want to uh increase that sample size out to kind of
anything between like 125 and 175 or 125 to 200. You're just, it's a lot of wedges and eight and nine irons for these guys. So I really tried to hone in on players that were excellent with their wedges that are more comfortable in easy scoring conditions. As you mentioned, I think there's a certain type of player that when they go to a birdie fest, they're
more excited for that versus a person, a players whose game, maybe like a Matthew Fitzpatrick suits more of a grinded out style, of course, and Bermuda putting, as you mentioned, these are champion Bermuda grass greens. We don't see champion too often, but we did see them last week at TPC Southwind Eastlake is another course with champion Bermuda Jackson country club is another one as well. So that is what I'm kind of looking at as well.
Let's get into the odds board, my friend. So I'm going to give you all of the guys on BetUS that are 30 and below. And as always, Rick, feel free to give out any numbers that you have found. I always encourage my listeners to shop around. But here are the guys that
I have at 30 and below. Webb Simpson at 12 to 1. Hideki Matsuyama at 14. Louis Oosthuizen at 18. Patrick Reed at 22. Zala Torres at 25. Brian Harmon at 28. And Jason Kokrak at 28. Rick, is there anyone in that range that catches your attention?
So I might be at the way that I'm constructing my card. I'm probably avoiding all of this, which is uncharacteristic for me. You know, I, I generally would like to get one of these guys, maybe get somebody in the thirties, then somebody in the fifties, somebody in the 8,100, that rounds out my card and it's very well balanced this week. You know, I run a lot of simulations. They're
wasn't a huge standout. The big standout stars, of course, Webb Simpson. He's 12 to one at BetUS. And the issue with Webb is right now you're buying his stock at the highest price available. Jeff Feinberg, you mentioned at the top, I recorded with him on Monday and he said something to me like, no one would be surprised if Webb won. No one would be surprised if he won by multiple strokes and it might not even impact his Ryder Cup chances. And I'm like,
If that's what everyone's thinking, you're not getting a good number on Webb Simpson. As much as I love the guy, it's just, it's probably not an investable number. There is a case to be made about Louis Oosthuizen. I think that he continues to prove he's been the best player in this field since the start of 2021. That's going on eight months. He's been putting himself in position. Winning is hard. Winning is a bit lucky. It's a bit random. I've not bet him and I've avoided thus far the entire range of golfers that you've mentioned.
I have as well. There's actually two guys, one at 30 and one at 35 that we can just jump right to now. But I actually had some, and I haven't pulled the trigger yet, Rick, but the guy that I'm most heavily considering at 30 is actually Sung J.M. And I look at Sung J.M. and I'm
He's had a very up and down season. He's been a very difficult player to gauge this year. For somebody like me and you that spends a lot of time looking at the numbers and trying to find trends and angles in the data, Sung Jae-im has been a very, very difficult player for me to figure out. There's actually been many times this year where I've kind of thrown my hands up in the air and been like,
I don't know what's going on with Sung Jae. One week is putter is the problem. The next week is irons are the problem. There hasn't been a lot of consistency from Sung Jae. But I look at a guy who –
He got the Olympics out of the way. And it's hard to tell, this is an unquantifiable narrative, but it's hard to tell how much that was weighing on him throughout the PGA Tour season. That is done. Now Sung Jae Im can go back to doing what he does best, which is obliterating short Bermuda courses. He's finished 6th and 9th.
at Wyndham in his only two appearances here. Obviously, he won earlier last year on another short Bermuda course at the Honda Classic. And the ball striking actually did start to come back, Rick, last week at the FedEx St. Jude's. He lost 6.2 combined strokes putting in around the green, which is the only reason why he finished at the middle of the pack. So I was very encouraged by that. I think I like Sungjae the most.
So I generally feel very similar about Sungjae as you do. I've not pulled the trigger on him yet, but I'm staring long and hard at his name. I don't think it's a great case to be made. I think it's a good case to be made. And you mentioned it. The 4.6 strokes that he lost putting specifically in Memphis is the second worst putting performance of his career.
which is rare considering one, he's generally great on Bermuda. He's generally a much better putter and leading into Memphis. He had gained strokes in, in five consecutive events on the green. So I think that we can really say that's an outlier. It is unlikely that that happens again. So if we get him back to his baseline or his Bermuda baseline, which is gaining about a half a stroke per round on Bermuda, and we combine it with some of these gains that we're seeing off the tee on approach, we combine that with the good quote,
vibes and the good course history. We combine that with the weaker field. You can see the narrative and you can see the story that can be built around Sung Jae Im if he just kind of gets back to normal Sung Jae status. So I haven't pulled the trigger on it yet, but that is the first name that I've certainly circled and I'm going to end up making a decision on it.
Me too. I have not pulled the trigger yet on him. The guy that I have pulled the trigger on is right below him, Rick, at 35 to one. And that is Russell Henley. Now, Russell Henley is a guy that I wrote up very early. I tend to do a lot of my research for these tournaments a little bit ahead of time before the, even the odds or the DraftKings pricing comes out. And I was kind of locked into Russell Henley very early when I started my research. Unfortunately, it
looks like he is going to be a very popular draft Kings choice, but I have still bet him at 35 to one Rick. And I look at, I look at a guy like Hadley and he's played well on, he's played well in Bermuda grass greens. He's number one in this field, actually an average strokes game per round and easy scoring conditions.
you want to talk about wedges. Well, Russell Henley has been second in approach over his last 36 rounds, second in proximity from 125 to 150 and seventh in that key proximity distance that we met that we mentioned earlier of 150 to 175.
I think he just makes a lot of sense at this course, bar none. And I'm trying not to overthink it, and it's so hard. I become so enamored with these guys' iron play, and Russell Henley just consistently gains that.
over six strokes on approach casually. And it's not like he's a terrible putter either. It's not like he's a member of team no putt either. We just have to get that approach week paired up with one of those putting weeks. And I think Russell Henley will be in the mix.
Yeah, this is going to be great content where we're just going to agree with each other for the entirety of it. No, I mean, I think you're absolutely right. You nailed everything. The fact that he missed the cut at the Open Championship, that's the last time we saw him. He's not top of mind for everybody, but I think the DFS players are starting to figure it out. The three starts before that were all top 20s. We know he was in the mix at the U.S. Open before he kind of faltered a little bit late there. You mentioned those ranges, which, you know, candidly,
The, the buckets, 100, 100 to 125 yards, 125 to 150, all that. I think they're a little bit flawed. I think they tell a story, but you know, you know, these guys don't forget how to hit the ball when they get to 99 yards instead of a hundred. But to your point, there's a big gap. There's a big range for Russell Henley, uh, from once 100 to 125, he's 29 from 125 to one 50. He's third on tour this season.
From 150 to 175, he's 17th. So that is a hundred yards to 175 yards where he's basically a top 30 player. That's a big range. So that's good to know, especially at a course where you are going to be wedging this to death. Yeah, this is on paper, the guy who is, you know, the advanced metrics guy, the putting surface guy, the proximity guy, he checks off all of those boxes.
Well, I would be surprised if you agree with me completely as we get into some of these longer shot guys, because I get a little bit stranger as we go farther down the board. But I want to open this up, Rick, and ask you, once we get into some of these guys in the 40s, like a Seamus Power, a Tommy Fleetwood, a Siwoo Kim, an Adam Scott, a Gary Woodland, a Matthew Wolfe,
a Kevin Na, Robert McIntyre, Kevin Streelman. And then all the way up, once you start getting into the Ricky Fowlers of the world and the Kevin Kisner's and the Brant Snedeker's and the Bubba's and the Eric Van Ruyen's and the Justin Rose, is there anyone kind of in that range in that mid tier from kind of the 40 to the 70 range that has your attention as well?
Yeah, there's a lot. You mentioned Seamus Bauer, who I think it's going to be a tough ask for him to go to win two events in a row. He won a couple of weeks ago. He's had a couple of weeks off. He won at Barbasol. He has been on an unbelievable trend. He's a ball-striking machine. He played out at the Corn Fairy Tour here at Vegas. I went inside the ropes. I walked with him. He was phenomenal. He was absolutely phenomenal, and he has not stopped since then. But I don't think I can bet him at 40, which is what he's at on BetUS.
Charles Schwartzel, though, is a guy that I've made a bet on here for a couple of reasons. If you just look at his advanced metrics, he is ball striking the hell out of it. He has not lost strokes or he's gained strokes off the tee in every event dating back to the Masters. He has gained strokes on approach in all but two events dating back to the Masters. He has figured something out with the putter. Remember, he went through that stretch where he was lost. He was trying all these wacky putters that looked like spaceships and he couldn't figure anything out. He's fixed that.
He's been better over his last eight and it's turning into results, Andy. Like a lot of times, some of these guys put together metrics that I, that I rattle off and I'm like, Oh, he's been great. He's been great. A bunch of T26s. Like that's, that's not really the case. I mean, he finished runner up with the three I've opened. He finished third at the Byron Nelson, him and Louie lost the playoff at the, at the Zurich. I mean, this has been a sustained stretch of golf where Schwartzel has seen himself near the top of the leaderboard. And I don't see anything in the metrics that makes me believe that's going to stop anytime soon.
That's interesting. I was looking at Swartzel very closely too. He has historically, he's been very good on Bermuda as well. He obviously finished second at the three and open where he gained strokes in all four categories. Sure. It was mostly putting, but I look at kind of how he's done in his career coming off spike putting weeks. And he's a good enough putter for you to believe that it's not really a flash in the pan. And it's not like the
ball striking has been slacking on him either. So that's very interesting to me. I do like Carl Schwartzel, the guy that kind of stuck out to me and I'll tell you my reasoning for this, Rick, but I feel like we might be stealing just a little bit with a guy like Kevin Strillman because I look at, so I,
And I use this reasoning a lot to try and help me kind of determine DFS plays, but I think it works in the betting market as well. I look at a guy like Kevin Strillman, and I feel like the public perception of him might be just a little bit off this week, and you might be able to be catching a better number on him than I think he deserves. He was, I believe he was 25 to one at the John Deere Classic and around 30 to one at
the Travelers Championship. Now, Strillman was a very popular selection at both of those events. He rewarded players who bet on him and players who rostered him with two missed cuts as a very popular selection and a guy in the 25-31 range.
Then he went to the Open Championship, finished top 20 at the Open Championship. There's no stats for the Open Championship. It was a very quiet top 20. And now we have him sitting here at 60-1. I got him at 60-1. He's 50-1 at a lot of places.
I just think that it's a pretty good number on a player that rated out very well for me model-wise. And I think the public perception on Kevin Stroman just may be a little bit off. So I had some interest on him at 60 to 1.
Yeah, I think it's fair. I mean, you look at the summer that he's had from Wells Fargo to the U.S. Open. He was great. I mean, he was piling up top 25 finishes. Then he had those two big miscuts that you mentioned, Andy, and then he follows it up, gets back on track with the top 20 at the Open Championship. I always do wonder about the sheer winning opportunity.
upside of a guy like Kevin Strelman. Certainly. It's plenty of top 10 equity, plenty of top 20 equity. I wonder about winning, but listen, winning's hard. Winning's random. Winning comes down to getting lucky at some times and not getting unlucky in other times. So he definitely is the type of player with the ball striking capabilities, the savvy veteran. But
Believe it or not, the Wyndham championship is not going to be a stage too big for Kevin Strillman or anything like that. Like I, this is, he is right at home in these events.
I want to get your take on some of these guys like a Kisner or a Snedeker or a Siwoo Kim that have very strong history at this event, but the recent form, well, I shouldn't say that with Brant Snedeker. He's been playing all right. But any of those guys like Siwoo Kim or Kevin Kisner or Brant Snedeker where with a guy like Kisner and a guy like Siwoo,
The ball striking numbers from the FedEx were just so God awful with those guys. But you can also chalk that up to, well, maybe their round got off the rails a little bit early. They were out of contention. They hit a few balls in the water. That's really seeming to juke their stats. How much stock are you putting into that this week?
So Siwu is a very, very specific case because what he did last week was jarring and historic, right? So he lost 10 strokes. I'm trying to pull it up in front of you. I think he lost 10 strokes on approach on Sunday's round alone. Now we know a lot of that was five balls into the water on 11th.
I'm willing to throw out five balls in the water on 11 on a Sunday at a no cut event at a WGC that you're not in contention. I don't care about that one single bit. What I do care about is he was hemorrhaging strokes on approach for the first three rounds as well. He basically seven strokes there. He has not,
particularly struck it well for, I don't know, dating back to the U S open, maybe even further than that. If you want to go to Byron Nelson, he's losing probably more often than he's gaining these. These are more concerning things for me than just the fact that he put five balls in the water on 11. And then the putter has been, I mean, the putter has been horrible for, for Siwu. Now you mentioned at the top,
Sung Jae is kind of hard to handicap for me. Siwoo is the most difficult guy. I never get him right. I can't figure him out. He seems to buck every single trend, but I'm not going to have much exposure to Siwoo this week. You mentioned Snedeker and Kisner. I think they're fine. Kisner, I think...
I always think it's tough for a guy to just flip a switch and magically start hitting the ball while going back to a place that they've had success at. Snedeker has at least shown flashes of brilliance at times in the past couple of weeks or past couple of months, and now he's going back to a place. So none of these guys are going to be making my betting card, but I'd probably rank them Snedeker, Kisner, Siwu in that order.
I'm with you. And I kind of had the same thoughts with, with Kisner and Siwoo where it's like, yes, I'm absolutely willing to write off one bad round where it kind of went off the rails when they were in contention, but it's not like their first three rounds were good either. Like Kisner's ball striking numbers through the first three rounds of St. Jude's were not good at all. And I,
understand the course history thing. But the problem with that is for a player to fit correctly at the course history, you have to model out what he's doing right now as well. And so was Kevin Kisner in 2019 or 2018 or whatever you may have a fantastic fit at Sedgefield because he was hitting his mid irons fantastically? Well, right now he's 134th in that
key proximity range of 150 to 175 yards. Now, as you mentioned that proximity ranges in general are flawed, but course fit is actually kind of tailored by recent form in a way, because that's kind of, you have to look at how they are rating out in those key metrics lately. And Kevin Kisner just hasn't been hitting the ball very well. So I'm with you. I'm a little bit, uh,
cooler on some of those players that may have had some very good past success at Sedgefield. Before we get into that 60 to 100 range, I wanted to throw out Taylor Gooch. I don't know, I didn't get a chance to watch your video with Feinberg yet, but me and Feinberg have been DMing about this guy all Monday morning. We are completely enamored by Gooch. He is a player that
I think, and I've mentioned this a couple times before, I think a Max Homa-esque trajectory for Taylor Gooch is very reasonable in the next year or so. I think he's an extremely talented player. There's nothing particularly about Sedgefield that screams Taylor Gooch to me, but it's just a player that I'm very high on long-term, and I'm probably going to keep betting and rostering, hoping that it works out for me.
Yeah, it's funny you compare him to Max Homa because those guys are good buddies. And you can certainly see that, right? It was kind of a slow burn for Max and trying to figure it out and just constantly improving. Gooch has a couple of things going for him. The fact that he's a great approach player is number one. You can throw anybody on any course who can dial in their second shot and they're going to start finding a lot of success. The other thing, and I wish this is quantifiable, Andy, because I love that, his peers love him.
And his peers are constantly talking about how good he is. When you talk about, when you get quotes from guys who played with Gooch, it's always about how impressive he is or he's going to be a breakout guy. And when you start getting your peers talking about you like that, generally it's a really, really good sign because they don't like to necessarily heap praise on one another too liberally. So yes, I think that Gooch has a lot of stuff going for him in both the advanced metrics and the narrative base of it.
You're right. There's nothing that stands out about Sedgefield that you're like, this is the perfect fit because I think that's to Gooch's credit. I think there's going to be a lot of courses where he's a pretty good fit. He might not be a great fit anywhere, but there's going to be like 30 courses that he's a pretty good fit because of how well he hits it on a second shot.
Absolutely. And I look at kind of what he's done on Bermuda. I look at kind of what he's done on shorter versus easier courses. Again, it's he just kind of plays well everywhere. And he's made 13 of 16 cuts this season. He's made seven cuts in a row. And I try and look at how some of these lesser known players have done in major championships.
as a barometer to see maybe if they are a little bit better than we think they are. And I mean, he quietly finished 33rd at the open and his first open ever finished 44th at the PGA. He doesn't have a ton of experience in that tournament as well. And of course, earlier this season, he finished fifth at the players as well. So I just think that Gooch is a player that might be, I think he's a candidate for somebody that we're looking back
in six months from now and saying, oh my gosh, you got Taylor Gooch at 60 to one, similar to how there were 150s on Cameron Davis and 150s on Sam Burns. Once we break it open into that kind of 60 to 100 range, Rick, I'm not going to list all of these players, but is there anyone a little bit farther down that you are kind of targeting in that 60 to 100 range?
Yeah. So the one, the first one is a bet. Us has JT posted at 75 to one. And I am not, I'm not a posting guy. I I'm not. The argument is that he is one of the best putters on the planet. Number two in strokes game putting this year, and he doesn't do much else. Well, so I usually avoid that type of situation, but what we're starting to see is, uh,
He gained three strokes on approach at Barbasol, which is an event that he probably should have won. Remember, they had to pull out the string and see if his ball was OB on the second nine there on Sunday. It was out by a fraction. It's this slow motion car wreck for Poston, and he ends up finishing second. And then he gained strokes again, four of them, at the 3M Open. So when I see this, Andy, I see...
something that's very investable at 75 to one. I see a golfer who has a baseline putter. That is one of the best on, on the planet. And then I see a guy that for two consecutive events has gained strokes on approach, uh, in the threes and fours. Now,
This goes one of two ways. He either goes back to being regular JT Poston and he loses four strokes on approach and it's a very small investment and it doesn't matter. And that's fine. It's 75 to one, or he's building on something or he found something with his ball striking and he marries that with the putter and he is motivated to get back near the winner's circle after the close call at Barbasol.
And you get a 75 to one payout or at least a sweat at one. I mean, I think that the risk reward of this is so minimal that I can try to be early on post in and not be all that upset if he just misses the cut and is terrible.
I think that's so funny. The reasoning that you use for JT Poston, because I actually have the same reasoning for Zach Johnson. I look at, I look at a player who has, I mean, what do guys like Zach Johnson and JT Poston hang their hat on? It's obviously the flat stick. Zach Johnson is the number one Bermuda putter in this field over his last 24 rounds. He has won on Bermuda four times before. Um,
But he hasn't been putting that great recently. What he has been doing that great recently is that he has gained over 4.5 strokes on approach in back-to-back starts. That is not very much like the Zach Johnson that we know. The only reason that he's only been able to parlay those two starts into a 25th and a 34th place finish is because he's been a field average to slightly below average putter.
I think that we will see some positive regression with Zach Johnson's putter. I think it is a fair guess to make that somebody that has played very well on champion Bermuda last time he was on champion Bermuda at the Wells Fargo, he gained 5.8 strokes putting. He doesn't play this tournament often, but he finished fifth in 2013 and seventh here last year. So I'd
I love those types of guys, Rick, where they're not maybe doing what they do best right now, but they are doing something better. So you can kind of say, okay, this is a little bit abnormal for JT Poston or Zach Johnson to be hitting the ball this well. Maybe they found something with the ball striking. I feel so much more comfortable assuming that the putter is going to come back.
Yeah, it makes complete sense. These guys have, they have weapons, they have flaws, they have things that they, yeah, lean on over the course of four days. And when, when you can just assume that they go back to their baseline, right? Like that's the assumption. That's, that's a very safe assumption to make.
if they can marry some of the small gains that they've made in other areas with their baseline, now you're talking about a golfer that starts to pop. So I agree, especially down in this range. These are the guys that I'm targeting. It's a small investment for a big return, and it's not that much to ask of them.
There are a couple of guys, Rick, once we get closer to that 100 that I have some interest in. Joel Damon was a guy that I was mulling over. I haven't pulled the trigger yet on him, but he's coming off a T7 at the Barracuda. I think he makes some sense. The ball striking has been pretty good. Prior to that, he gained 3.2 strokes off the tee and 2.1 strokes on approach in his last start.
at the 3M. Model-wise, he checks a lot of boxes for me. Decent in that proximity distances. Gets a lot of opportunities. Makes a lot of birdies. Obviously does well in easy scoring conditions. Has finished well here before in the past.
Is there anyone kind of close to that 100 range or even a little bit farther up that has your attention? And once we start getting into these guys, Rick, even just players that maybe you don't have interest in pulling the trigger with outright, but just guys that you think might be undervalued and you'd be comfortable rostering in DFS or playing in the finishing position market.
Yeah, the finishing position market is where we're starting to get into down here. So I think there's a couple of guys. Roger Sloan, 100-1, has been doing it in a way that is super consistent. He's been piling up decent finishes. But the one that kind of sticks out to me is Rory Sabatini. He's 90-1. He was hard.
Horrible leading into the Olympics, and then he finds a way to get hot and put it together for a silver medal. And now you take maybe the good vibes and what he could potentially found in Tokyo, the ability to get hot, the ability to fire off and go to one of his favorite regions. This southeast region is generally where Sabatini thrives in. He has two top six finishes overall.
at the Wyndham in his last four starts. That is someone that I think, again, we're, we're, I'm looking at a small sample size of one start in Tokyo. Maybe he found something, compare that with some recent form and it becomes interesting. And then other than that, so don't, don't throw shoes at me or anything like that, but yeah,
there's a pretty strong case to be made. And I think this is more maybe in a DFS market to go right back to Jim Herman. You know, he, he's, he is more expensive. Everyone was kind of on him last week. And it's not that he played particularly poorly. He lost three strokes off the tee finished T 46. He outpaced his, uh, his, his price on your favorite daily fantasy site, but this is continuing a stretch of pretty decent golf for Jim Herman. And now he gets to go back to the place that he won at,
last year, which is obviously going to be a good spot for him. So I do wonder if most people jumped a week early on Herman and there's not a stronger case to be made to run him back again this week.
I like that a lot. Herman was a very popular guy last week and he got off to a really hot start and caught a lot of people's attention and then obviously faded over the weekend. Now I try and play off the public perception thing as well. If Jim Herman kind of reversed that and started out slow and came on strong over the weekend, maybe the sentiment surrounding Jim Herman would be a lot different this week. The two guys that I kind of wanted to throw out as well, and we are getting into some, uh,
more certainly more in the dart throw category but I actually had some interest in Brendan Todd at 100 to 1 now he kind of fits into that same bucket as JT Poston or Zach Johnson where he's missed three straight cuts but I thought what we saw out of him at the 3m open was surprisingly encouraging he gained 1.2 strokes off the tee that's his best off the tee week since
April and 1.9 strokes on approach. Now he missed the cup because he'd lost 4.2 strokes putting. If you are at all familiar with Brendan Todd, you know that Brendan Todd losing 4.2 strokes putting is not a very normal occurrence. He is an excellent Bermuda putter. So I'm very confident that Brendan Todd can get things going again with the flat stick. If he can continue to hit the ball this well, and he's a guy that's going to be like,
4% on DraftKings. I don't think anyone is going to use him. And then the final guy that I want your take on is I actually bet Mark Hubbard at 170 to one this week. And this is kind of an unquantifiable narrative, Mark. So I mean, or Rick, so I don't Mark, Mark Hubbard, there we go. So I don't, I don't want to put too much stock into this, but I think that there's a certain type of player like Mark Hubbard where we're
when he goes to, there are about four tournaments a year that he has circled on his calendar and says to himself, okay, I can really win here. We're not at Torrey Pines anymore. And I look at the Brant Snedekers of the world, the JT Postons of the world, the Webb Simpsons of the world, the Zach Johnsons of the world. And I think Mark Hubbard can compete here. And I think he's licking his chops. He needs to do a lot of work to get himself in the FedExCup playoffs. And
If you're noticing a theme here, Mark Hubbard has been hitting the ball exceptionally well and putting below his baseline. So I probably don't have a strong take on Hubbard, so I'll leave that to you. It sounds all good. But Brendan Todd is super interesting because he was probably my number one course fit. Like when I ran all the numbers and was like, what type of player...
should play well here. Everything pointed to Brendan Todd. And then you start to get scared because you look at, you know, the four cuts in his last five starts. But I will say, even over his last five missed cuts, Andy, they've been by one stroke
or two strokes, which I think, I think matters, right? You know, the idea that he's shooting 71, 72 and missing the cut is a big difference between shooting 77, 78 and missing the cut. It's a huge difference. And we have seen, you know, these results, it,
one or two strokes in either direction. If instead of missing five of his last nine cuts, he has made seven of nine and they were like T 52. Like it would look a lot better, even though in reality, it's not that much better. You know what I mean? Like it's really not that much better, but it would look a lot better. And I think people would be more interested. So yes, I think there is, you have to dive into it a little bit further, but I think there is a, a fairly short,
Strong case to be made about Brendan Todd not having the second worst putting week in my database back to 2013, which is what he did for 3M Open, getting back to being a great putter, getting back to being a great putter on Bermuda, and just maybe getting a little lucky, right? I mean, that could also be the case for some of these missed cuts.
And Rick, you bring up such a good point. And that is the beauty of sites like your site, rickrunga.com and the Fantasy Nationals of the world is that you look at Brendan Todd's PGA Tour page or you look at Brendan Todd's official World Golf Ranking page and you see three missed cuts in a row, but you don't see how those missed cuts have happened. You don't see how many strokes he's lost to the field. You don't see
what categories that he lost those strokes in. So I completely agree. That is really what I try and look at as well as, is there a difference in perception between what people see at the end of the week on the results card versus what actually happened and how they accumulated that result? Is there anyone else, Rick, that we have not mentioned, um,
In this kind of range that you believe is either undervalued, you will be giving a hard look at in DFS or in the betting market that we haven't touched on yet.
Good question. I don't think so. A part of me always keeps one eye on Sam Ryder because I know what the upside might be, but I have not pulled the trigger and I'm not particularly sprinting to the window to get access to him. So I think that the bottom of my card looks like
Brendan Todd, the bottom of my DFS pool looks like someone like a Jim Herman when I'm looking at the board on BetUS. So I don't think so. It would not shock me if a Matt Jones contended and won this or a Michael Thompson just because of how wide open I think this is. But I'm not going to be finding these guys on my card down here at the bottom.
Just a quick strategy question, Rick. We talked about this. We alluded to this a little bit at the top. I didn't give the prices of the winners that have won here, but it has been a lot of long shots. And obviously when you get into a situation with one of the easier courses, you're going
it brings a lot more players into play than you would maybe at a US Open where there's just a lot of easy cross-offs. Is this a week where you're probably more inclined to find a lot more players at the bottom and kind of structure your card that way?
Yeah, I mean, I can't remember the last time I've skipped the 30s and shorters to load up on the 50s to 80s. And it's for those exact reasons. These are PGA Tour players. And I know they might be ranked 200th in the world, but the 200th ranked player is...
is very, very, very, very good at golf. And what they're usually very good at is taking advantage of easy courses and hitting their wedges. That is usually what they thrive in. It is why the Corn Ferry Tour, I mean, you see just unbelievable scoring seemingly every single week on the Corn Ferry. And those guys are just trained to go low, like six under every single... I got to go low. I got to go low. And it's starting to...
you know, matriculate up into the PGA tour where this is the mindset that you get in some of these weaker field events where you don't get a lot of the stars and you don't get difficult setups. So yes, living between 50 and 100 is what I'll do this week. And I believe that the data and the setup backs that up for such fields.
I completely agree. The only two other guys that I will throw out there that I had some interest in before we do a little bit of a recap, but I think 300 to one is an awfully big number on Russell Knox, who's won a WGC before, and he's
played here five times and he hasn't played very well here before but he missed a cut on the number at the barracuda he's now missed three consecutive cuts but the irons have not gone away whatsoever he just cannot putt he is actually second for me over his last 36 rounds in that key proximity range of 150 to 175 yards so if you want to get extremely specific and just say to yourself i'm
I'm going to take a chance on somebody that has the exemplary skill set that I'm looking for, even if he is extremely flawed in a number of other areas. I think you get a very elite wedge player in Russell Knox at 300 to one where you can prey on the putter and who knows.
And similar to Knox, the only other guy that I was looking at, I think Jason Duffner is playable, uh, at this course. I'm not going to bet him at, at 250 to one, but he is somebody that I'm using heavily in draft Kings at 6,700. He's just been hitting the ball, uh,
very well he's he won the pga championship in 2013 on a donald ross course at oak hill he's played well here in the past he's coming off three top 30 finishes um so i think jason duffner is playable in that range again based on the ball striking he's shockingly first in opportunities gained over his last 36 rounds so he's hitting his irons and his wedges really well
Before we get out of here, Rick, let's do a little bit of a recap of our favorite guys. So I think I am deciding between Sungjae, if I'm going to add Sungjae in at the top at 30, but I have pulled the trigger on Russell Henley. I have pulled the trigger on Kevin Streelman. I have pulled the trigger on Taylor Gooch. And I'm mulling over that Brendan Todd and Zach Johnson kind of range. And I have pulled the trigger on Mark Hubbard at 171.
All right. So for me, I've pulled the trigger on Henley and Schwartzel. That's the first two names on the board. I also went or I've posted. I will bet for sure because that's a small investment into a potential big opportunity. I will probably convince myself on Brendan Todd. And I cannot stop looking. This is...
a flaw at Rory Sabatini. So I'll probably, I'll probably light my money on fire there as well, but it's, it's, it's a very interesting board that is going to, I believe, allow a lot of these guys to be live at numbers that, you know, listen, golf's the only sport in the world that you can get a 55, a hundred to one ticket to cash over four days. There's, there's nothing like it.
Rick, I could pick your brain all day and talk your ear off about a number of things, but I know you are an extremely busy guy. So before we get out of here, man, why don't you tell everybody where they can find you over the rest of the week?
Uh, sure. So basically Twitter is probably the best place. Cause I tweeted all out. It's at Rick run good data and tools and analysis and all that stuff coming from Rick run good.com. Um, I'm on CBS sports, uh, daily golf podcast. It's called the first cut couple of live chats on YouTube. So it's Rick, it's youtube.com slash Rick run good. Just wherever you might see me see my face pop up or hear my voice pop up.
Rick, thank you so much one more time for joining me. And I'm sure we will do it again soon, my friend. Have a great rest of your week, buddy. Thanks, Eddie. That's it for the show, guys. I will be back Sunday afternoon previewing the Northern Trust at Liberty National Tournament. I will be attending in person. Cheers.
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