WGC- FedEx St. Jude with Rob G.
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Great show today talking WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational with Rob G. DFSRCguilt on Twitter. He's the host of Monday Night DFS School. Just a really smart guy. He looks at things very similar to the way that I look at things and

I've been wanting to talk to him for a while. As soon as I found his show, I knew I had to have him on. So I think you'll really enjoy that conversation. But before we get to the show, I want to talk about BetUS. BetUS is an online legal sportsbook in all 50 states. They have the best numbers on the marketplace all the time. I could not imagine not having BetUS in my arsenal. I love it, not just because of the golf odds that will hang, but also because of the fast, secure, and easy payouts. So make sure to go to BetUS.com and use promo code PICKTHEPUP

That is the important part. Use promo code PICKTHEPUP for a 125% bonus on your first deposit at BetUS.com. Let's get to the show.

All right. I'm joined by my buddy, Rob DFS, RC guilt on Twitter. Rob, thank you so much for joining me, man. I'm very excited to talk to you. I caught wind of your show a couple of weeks ago. I'm a big fan and I've wanted to talk to you for quite some time, man. So thank you so much for joining me.

Yeah, I'm super excited to be on here. First time, long time. I like always wanted to say that. But yeah, I've been listening to your stuff every week. And we were kind of speaking before we hit record there about all the great content you're kind of churning out. So super appreciate the invite. Glad to be here. And it's always fun to talk golf with a buddy like you. So let's get rolling. So...

Before we get to the odds board, Rob, I want to let you plug your show a little bit because I have so much respect for your DFS knowledge. I'm a little bit newer to the game. I was introduced to this industry through betting and I always dabbled in DFS, but I didn't really spend a ton of time dissecting it strategy-wise and really trying to get better at it until recently I got

hired to do DFS primarily for Roto Baller and some of the stuff I do for Golf WRX is DFS focused and then contributing on Mayo Show as well and stuff like that. So I kind of just totally caught the bug, man. And I'm so fascinated by it. And I'm

I've become really obsessed with the strategy behind it and kind of done a lot of reading and really tried to educate myself, which includes listening to your show. And it's been working great since I've kind of devoted the time to get better at it. Nothing like you. I haven't won $50,000 or anything like that. Not yet. It's definitely been a profitable endeavor for me so far. So why don't you just tell...

the listeners kind of what your goal is with this show, because I think you kind of approach things from a different way, which is what I, which is what really drew me in.

Yeah, and I appreciate you giving me the time. I won't take all the time, but really it's just intended to, especially specifically related to DFS PGA, how to help people make money. Because DFS is tricky, especially as more information is out there. The kind of edge has kind of shrunk a little bit. And so...

I've just noticed, not to be contemptuous or act like I'm an expert, but just see some of these common mistakes people make when they're, you know, we're just chatting online or on Twitter or whatever. And so I want to think, gosh, what'd be great if, gosh, we could have a collaborative show where we're just educating on strategy. You know, there's so many great stuff, including your show. You know, the dimension is, you know, we've got so many great stuff where we're having like picks and that's great.

but also like, gosh, the strategy is maybe not important as the picks, but we do something to kind of consider definitely when we're making kind of our, our lineups. And I kind of noticed it because I was always, I'm a big fan boy with the PGA tour. I love it. I've been following for so long. So that's, that's kind of how I got into, to DFS. Cause where I live in Kentucky, betting wasn't legal. We had to go across the river now, but,

I always loved it, but wasn't wasn't succeeding at it. And so I started kind of researching it and I found all the like poker players who went professional and, you know, we're actually great DFS players. I'm like, gosh, well, that opens a whole can of worms. So I started researching it and that the game theory strategy is so valuable and it's never really talked a lot or hasn't really been talked a lot before about, you know, in DFS, you know, in the Twitter sphere.

So long winded. But yeah, I just wanted to throw that out there. And again, there's so many different ways to make money in DFS. So I'm not saying my way is the best way. And that's why I like having these guests kind of like what you do is, you know, there's many ways to look at it. And so just being collaborative, work together and developing a strategy that helps people make money, which is the main goal.

Well, I seriously beat it, man. I'm actually, I'm pretty picky with the content that I consume and I don't end up consuming a lot. I actually listen to way more basketball and football podcasts than I do golf podcasts. I listen to my friends because I love my guys and I want to support them and always be loyal to them, but I don't always really care to know where everyone else is at.

all the time. But I enjoy your show so much because I think you thread this line that is not very easy for people to do where you educate without talking down to people and the way that you articulate your ideas with

kind of randomness and how you differentiate. I think about things very similarly. So I'm done with the ass kicking. We're ass kissing. We can get to St. Jude's, but I just wanted to give you an opportunity to talk about it a little bit because I hope more people find it and tune into your show. And you're talking to one of my good buddies, John, tonight, I believe, correct? Yeah, that's right. So looking forward to that. But I appreciate the good energy and yeah, I'm excited. And

But yeah, let's get on to St. Jude. Let's do it, buddy. Okay. So TPC Southwind, Rob, it is a par 70 measuring 7,244 yards. Eight of these holes have water hazards. They're champion Bermuda grass greens, zoysia fairways. I've already done a pretty extensive breakdown on the course myself. So I'll just kick it to you, Rob. What kind of stands out to you when you're kind of trying to dissect TPC Southwind?

Yeah, so the first thing is you've already mentioned, I think that 12 and 18 are in the top 10 of the most water balls on the PGA Tour. And obviously there's water, I think you said, on eight of the course. So that definitely sticks out. And it's funny because I think I've been to TPC Southland twice, not to play, just been to the FedEx St. Jude. And I think 12, the water...

along the fairway on the right and 18 is definitely on the left for your driver and on your approach. So it's like, sometimes I like to look at it of a course, does it play a draw or a fade? Is there like a bias or advantage there? And TPC Southwind, it really doesn't. What I have noticed is that the, I think it's

I think it was 25% of the shot. So second shot, so pro shot, come from 150 between 175 yards out. And the tour average, I think it's just around 20%. So 25%, so a little over here. Yeah, more weight maybe needs to be considered here. But definitely a driving course. The rough is usually thick. This is Memphis in August. So it's going to be hot as hell. The humidity and it's bledding, it's bluegrass. Or no, it's zoia. You know what kind of rough?

rough it is. Yeah, it's Bermuda grass rough. Blue Bermuda grass. So it's going to be sticky. Yeah. And it's going to be long.

just with how, how well it grows with the humidity down there. So big advantage if you can kind of obviously drive it straight, but also kind of far too, because there's a couple holes, I think like 11, um, where if you cut the corner over the tree, you have like 90 yards in. So just kind of rambling now, but if I had to shrink it, it's definitely the, uh, off stroke chain off the tee who's kind of trending that way. And then, um, you know,

on top of whatever the approach and ball striking, maybe kind of highlighting a few golfers that can hit it well from 150 to 175. I looked at kind of the same thing. I found it fascinating that 67% of the approach shots come from that range between 125 and 200. Now, 75 yards, that sounds like a giant range, right? But it's really just for pros, the difference between like a gap wedge and a seven or eight iron. So if you can really hone in on who is the best

in the world with those types of clubs. And I kind of talked about this a little bit in my rotoballer article, where if you look at a very large sample size, of course, at this point now, Morikawa has just lapped everybody and everything. But if you look at a large sample size, like Brooks and JT and Berger, they are also good with those kinds of scoring irons in their hands. So it's not a huge surprise that those are the types of players that kind of succeed here.

I am right there with you, my friend. Should we get into the favorites?

Let's do it. All right. So I'm going to give you the guys that are 20 and below on betus.com. But Rob, as always, I always tell my guests, feel free to throw out any other numbers. I always encourage listeners to shop around. And yeah, so let's do it. So I'm looking at a 12 to 1 on Brooks Koepka right now, 14 on Colin Morikawa, 14 on Xander, 16 on Spieth, 16 on Justin Thomas.com.

18 on Dustin Johnson, although I've seen 20s and 18, 18 on Rory McIlroy. Let's stop there, man. Who in that range, if any, by the way, kind of has your attention, both from a betting and a DFS perspective. I know that it is incredibly early with ownership projections and stuff like that. So I'm just looking at the very earliest stuff with fantasy national, but who kind of stands out to you in that range the most?

Sure. And I don't want to state the obvious because he's the, I think the top guy on the board, but

besides Colin maybe, but Brooks, he measures out so well for this course. I know he has a great course history, so everyone's going to be thinking it and it's, we're going to have to decide what we want to do with, with DFS. But 12 is still just too short on me to take really anyone, even, even Colin. But I do want to highlight, I'm really big on, on finding ball striking trends. So a lot of people look for trends that, uh, okay, maybe they're trending, you

you know, in a good direction with their placing finishes in a tournament. But I really look at a ball striking and Brooks is actually one of the best in the field with that within my model. And that's some of the stats that you've had in your article and that we just talked about. So I just had to mention Brooks because he's actually ranks number one in the last four, eight, and he's like third and last 12 rounds.

So he's coming in really hot. But if I were to look for value, I think it would be for the beginning with Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson. So I know DJ is at 20 in some places. I think you mentioned he's at 18. JT is 18 on DK. I think you mentioned 16. And so I'm not a big fan of getting into these unquantifiable narratives. So like jet lag.

And so that doesn't scare me a little bit. So I just maybe want to get your opinion because I value that. Are you afraid at JT at all coming up from Tokyo to the play to come to Memphis? You worried about that at all? That's a great question. So I am a big Justin Thomas fan and I've actually been very critical of him over the past couple of weeks. He was popular last week and I said,

I've been watching and I'm telling you, I'm not sure if he's there yet. Now, to be honest with you, I thought he actually looked a lot better at the Olympics than he has in a while. I think the irons came back. He was good off the tee. And while it did feel like he missed every single putt over the first two days, I'm

I didn't feel like I was getting a JT is lost on the green sense. I saw him burning a lot of edges. And then you saw over the weekend, he ended up shooting 68, 65, and it kind of looked like it was starting to come together. Um,

I'm with you. I have a very difficult time when I try and quantify stuff like that. Another thing that we can talk about a little bit is like the FedEx Cup and the Comcast Business Top 10. I was thinking about that a little bit and all this external motivation stuff that we don't, that there's no numerical data that we have on it. Right.

To give you the very short answer, whenever I look too much into it, I always get burned. Yeah, yeah. And I just want to point out, JT, you're exactly right. Data backs off, and you probably kind of saw the data too, but his strokes gain stat, especially approach, is not what it usually is for JT, especially in the last 12 rounds. He's actually trending in a terrible direction. And I'm not going to bet, JT, and maybe –

maybe won't bet DJ. I just don't like that, you know, those numbers considering how they're per recent form. But what does give me hope is that, yeah, that final round or last two rounds in Tokyo at the Olympics did kind of

maybe give you a little glimpse of a possible upside. And if there is someone, I mean, JT won it last year. We know how well he can do here. But if there is anyone that can maybe kind of turn it on pretty quickly, you know, outside of Rahm and Brooks, you know, JT is right there. And then DJ's the same way. DJ's a little trickier. He was trending in a bad way kind of before the open and the 3M, and then he missed the cut in the 3M. We didn't know that Austin wasn't on the bag, his caddy.

but he finally got his, his approach numbers back, which was a little encouraging. And so you don't usually get DJ at 18 or 20. And so I just wanted to mention, mention him, but you know,

Before I keep going, what are your thoughts on DJ? He's the guy I keep eyeing. I think that Dustin and Bryson are both the clear drifters this week in terms of their odds. I look at someone like DJ, and I know he hasn't been playing that great, but now he's 20-1 in a field with 60 players on a course that he's won at twice.

It's giving me very Rory at quail vibes where he drifted because the forum hasn't been good, but now he shows up to a course that he's had loads of success at, but a lot of people are still gun shy because the forum just hasn't been great. I think this is the same situation. So as much as I love JT and, and,

I love Spieth too, who we haven't, I'd like to get your thoughts quickly on him. But I think in terms of betting, DJ is the guy at 20 that I'm probably going to gravitate to.

Yeah, and I think with DJ, so there he did show a little sign of life at the 3M. Even though he lost a, I think it was a stroke off the tee, you know, that was due to a lot of balls in the water. Correct. Yeah, and so that kind of sways it a little bit. But he is showing life. And I really think from the Traveler to the U.S. Open to the Palmetto, he has really underperformed

just considering on how he's finished the tournament based on what his stats say, even at the Valspar back in May, I just have it up. He finished 48, but he gained a three, 3.7 off the tee 1.7 approach. He just lost some putting. So what's even crazier, I know I'm rambling, but at the travelers, he had five strokes game total. He was, you know, had five shakes game total and kind of lit up across the board. So, you know, even though he hasn't been finishing the normally D,

DJ way is his number say he's not that far off. And yeah, like at 18 to one, how often are you going to get that for a player like DJ?

Rob, I first just want to say, if you're a listener to my podcast, you know that you should never have to apologize for rambling about useless statistics that no one may be interested in. You never have to apologize for that. But the last thing that I wanted to get your take on before we put a bow on this range and move down the board a little bit, I know it's early, Rob, but I'm looking at the fantasy national ownership projections. Brooks is 32% right now.

And I thought it was going to be high. I write the Roto Baller article usually on Saturday, and I said, I think that Brooks will be the most expensive player on the slate, if not Colin, and I think he will be close to the highest owned as well. I don't think that we should overthink this one. I'm going to give you a two-part question. The first part of my question is,

Would you still feel comfortable going to Brooks? Cause I know we briefly, we didn't go deep on Brooks, but we briefly touched on how kind of perfect it is for him. And how do you feel about a guy like speed? Because I'm looking at speed sitting right below him at $200 cheaper and I

I think this is just an absolutely perfect course for him, man. And I know he's only played here twice and both times he played, he wasn't in good form at all, but he still managed to finish 12th and 30th. And, you know, it's extremely early, but I just feel like if 30% of the people are playing Brooks, even though he's $200 cheaper, like give me a 13% speed, like 10 times out of 10.

Yeah, a hundred percent. And just to go back to Brooks kind of for the listeners, the reason we didn't spend much time on them and just assume is because, you know, we're just making the assumption that you'll, everybody knows that he's early side up that he's kind of the top dog right now. So if you just look at pull up any strokes, games data, Brooks's record speaks for himself with the recent form, but also how he's played here. So yeah. So we just wanted to throw that out there, but speed is right. So you're using a little bit of game theory. You're, you're looking at the,

the ownership projections, which they currently, you had them at, I think 30% or over at Brooks. And you're saying, okay, you know, if you want to roster Brooks, that's okay. We're not, I mean, I'm not going to argue with that. I still may. Yeah. But if you do, you have, you have to utilize how you're going to own them. This is one of the biggest mistakes people do in DFS is if you make a hundred lineups and Brooks is a 30% owned in the field, a lot of people match them.

So like, and so in my hundred, my hundred, I'm going to have 30 lineups or I'm just gonna go somewhere near there where you're not creating any sort of leverage. And so if you're, if you're leveraging,

love Brooks, well then you have to be overweight on him to get some serious leverage. And so I would recommend if you're making 100 lineups and adjust it to 20, 10, however the listeners are making. But if you're making 100 lineups and Brooks is 30, I would make them, and if you love him, I would make them 60 to 70% just to get that leverage. But I

So I'm kind of leaning with you is, do I think Brooks can win? Of course. Am I going to play him? I don't know. But Josh Spieth is a $200 less with the ownership discount and knowing the caliber of a player that Spieth is, it just seems like an attack spot.

I'm with you. And I feel like it'll get a little bit lower. I don't think that Brooks will finish the week at 32%. I think people will see that once the fan share projections come out. And, and I think maybe I he'll probably end up hovering somewhere around the high twenties, like 28 or something like that. But, you know, we're talking about, this is kind of the point that I raise to people all the time is it's like, yes, is, is Brooks,

probably a better play than Spieth this week? Sure. But is he double a better play than Spieth this week? Is he two times more likely to outperform Spieth this week? Maybe he's 1.3 times more likely to outperform Spieth this week. But if he's 28% and Spieth is 14%, you're basically saying that Brooks is double more likely to outperform Spieth. And that's just something that

I have a hard time with, but there's a lot of guys to talk about, man. So I want to jump right into the next range. If you don't mind, I just want one more guy. And cause he, I am going to place an outright on him and it's, and it's Rory. Oh my gosh. Okay. No, I want to hear the case. I'm so sorry, by the way. No, no, that, that, that, that's, that's okay. I know we have to keep, keep moving and get cooking, but, uh, so I am,

really, really drawn to Rory's recent trend, especially with driving the ball. It was so much better at the Olympics, where especially when the rough was wet, how much better he did. So at the Open, he finished 40-46. We don't really get much strokes gained out of it from that. But before that,

He gained strokes off the tee since the beginning of May. And so the driver, you know, when Rory's the best, he's the best driver of the golf ball in the world. You know, back on the early 20 teams. But I really love the approach numbers. And he did that again well last week. I posted on my Twitter page the –

you know, top strokes game guys that are play that play last week and this week and Roy popped and everything. But just to give you an example, he gained 4.4, 4.1, 4.3, 5.3 in his last four tournaments. There were strokes games data is registered. So I love the trend progression, but really this is the, it's almost like a Wells Fargo experience. Rory back up to around 20, 20 to one. The,

I think he was around that number at the Welsh Fargo. So it was just another opportunity to buy low on Rory because we just seen is upside and everything that I have in my little trend progression model. It says, God, Rory, Rory's going in the right direction. And at 20 to one and for his type of caliber, uh,

I think he's coming in better than DJ. I think he's coming in better than Speed. I think he's coming in better than JT. We get that little bit of a pricing discount on him. He's going to be one of my big plays. Thank you for letting me talk about Rory there. No, I'm glad you did because you made me think of something interesting with Rory. Then, I promise, we'll move on. I

I know we literally just talked about how we're a little bit lower on narrative angles than most because it's very difficult to quantify, but I'm going to go ahead and give you a narrative angle on Rory anyway. Both of us are huge fans of golf and, you know, study the game. I know you play, I play a lot and, and really just outside of the whole betting and DFS world, we really just kind of love and respect the game. I, I got, I,

the sense from Rory at the Olympics that, that may just reading through all of the quotes, that something may have ignited him there at the Olympics. And I, the no laying up guys do such a great job talking about, you know,

Talking about Rory and how much harder it gets when you get older and you have children and kind of your innocent love for the game that maybe a Morikawa or a Hovland has. It's just harder to keep up.

I heard and quotes can go either way. So you could, you know, there's, I wouldn't recommend reading too much into them, but I really did get the sense that, you know, something, he caught the Olympic bug. And I think I got the sense from everything I've read from Rory, that something kind of clicked with him this past week. And it felt like he, he may have kind of ignited his love for the game. I was really shocked.

surprised and fascinated to hear how big of a deal that was for him and how much he cared and how honored he was to be there and how he kind of did this 180 throughout the week. And maybe, maybe he builds that momentum going forward. And it was kind of just what he needed to fall in love with the game again, but that's, you know,

Yeah, and I'll just say with that, Rory is brutally honest, even to his fault sometimes. Look how he talked about the Olympics five years ago. Look how he talked about the honesty that trying to chase distance like Bryson and how he kind of... So Rory isn't one of those golfers that will just bullshit you and say, yeah, I love it now. It's all great. So Rory, I think, you know, you can't put a number on this either, but going off those quotes, Rory's honest. He's not bullshitting that. And so it sounds like, yeah, maybe he's

He's in the right headspace to kind of go into the FedEx Cup playoffs in this tournament and kind of have a nice end of the year.

Strokes gain perspective, baby. All right. Let's, let's talk about these, uh, this 20 to 50 range here, Rob. So you have Louie at 22 Bryson at 22, Patrick Cantley at 25 Hovland at 25 Hideki at 25 burger at 28, Scotty Scheffler at 28, Matt Fitzpatrick at 30, Paul Casey at 33, Tony Finau at 35, Patrick Reed at 35. And I guess we can cut it off there, man. In

In that range, it's a pretty big range with a lot of great players. Who has your attention here? So I know everyone, I kind of already seen on Twitter, is going to be talking about Scottie and, you know, why not Scottie, especially he drives the ball well. I just tweeted something about him right before we went on. Oh, did you? Yeah. So what did you say? So I was digging into Scottie and I was fascinated to see

the dichotomy between how he's performed in big events versus bad events. So it's almost Patrick Reed ask where he's, he's 54th at the Valero 47th at the Byron Nelson misses the cut at colonial 47th at the travelers, but then he gets to the hard tournaments and he goes, Oh,

Fifth and second at the two WGCs, third at the Memorial, which is the best field for a non-major or WGC, and 18th, 8th, 7th, and 8th at all the four majors where he can't even crack the top 40 at the Byron Nelson. Yeah, great point. So I found that fascinating. So this may be the time to play Scottie.

I think so. I mean, I like him, dude. I wrote him up in the Rotoball article. He immediately popped out to me, and I'm curious what you think because, you know,

He's played so well in the other WGCs this year. And as I mentioned, he just kind of shows up right out of the gate at these majors and he keeps knocking and knocking and nothing really stands out to me statistically about why this course would be particularly good for him versus other courses. But I just think we're in a zone where,

with him where he consistently puts himself in the mix in these very strong fields. And I was kind of joking with, with Feinberg this morning about how this may just be a hello world week for me, where I just say, okay, Vic. Okay, Scotty, it's time.

Mm hmm. And it very well could be. And so I'm with you on Scotty. It's hard to to not like, you know, obviously, when you're looking at whether it's DFS or betting, you're kind of making sense of why a player could win and maybe why a player could not win. And if you're not doing that, please do it, because there's something called confirmation bias that.

We tend to only – if I'm in love, let's just say, with Tony Finau, like one week, well, I just naturally begin to look at only stats that support that. And so it's, you know, play devil's advocate with yourself. So with that point, it's just hard to find some things wrong with Scottie and definitely Hovland. It's, you know, Hovland is –

lights up the board, almost everything. So maybe to give you a guy that's not maybe being talked a lot about right now, and if he is, forgive me, but that's Anser. Anser, in one of my models, ranks out second. And speaking of lighting up, he's top 10, and par

par fours from 400 to 450, six and bogey avoidance and just ball striking. He's a proximity from those, those numbers that we talked about at the beginning of the show. He's three, he's a three and fairways gained. He's trending. Well, look, just look at his stats from, um, I think he was second in the field of the Olympics from, from driving accuracy. So, and you're going to need to keep it in the fairway here. So, so answer, um,

He has my eye. I am a little worried because answer, I think overperforms within this last year or two. And I think his talent actually give them, and I could be totally wrong with that. And so I think there's his recent struggles have been maybe him just returning to the kind of golfer he is, but his is the ball striking stats. Don't lie. And so at 8,300 on draft Kings and I, I, what is he on a,

50 to one. He's as high as 50 to one. You can find him. He's in the forties at a lot of places too. Yeah. So, so answer I'm, I'm kind of big on answer this week. I haven't been on on that much lately just because of that thought he's, he kind of had that regression that was expected, but this, this might be the time for that. I buy back in on them. What, what do you think?

You know, that's interesting. I was actually really high on answer last week and he was fine. He kind of did what answer does. He was pretty good at everything. He gained off the tee. He gained on approach. He gained a little around the green and he, he gained strokes putting. I think the thing with answer is people, I, I, I'm, I have a difficult time finding, he rated out incredibly well for me, most,

model wise he was actually right up there with call more kawa as the best player in the field i think i have you have a difficult time finding leverage with an answer situation because people are still always going to play him no matter what because the thing is as you mentioned and this is such a key point like the general public is getting so much smarter with their addition with their

the access to fantasy national and fan chair and all this great content that you, you put out and people like me and you that's free and widely accessible. If we're seeing answer with all of these things, then,

it we're not a lot of other people are probably seeing it too as they should um right and and the you know i i'm looking again super early with with the fantasy national stuff but you know if if answer's 20 and and cam smith is seven percent i'm gonna play cam smith oh you have to yeah yeah uh but i understand i and and that's the other thing with answer that's tough is it's like

Well, if you're super high on answer, then you should play answer. If he's your guy, then you should play answer and be overweight on answer. But the problem I have is the win equity thing with answer there too, is it's like, do I like him better as a DFS play or a bet? Because I kind of have a difficult time with both.

Yeah. And you bring up a great point. This is, you know, this is early in the week, so we don't have all the ownership. So, you know, our, our pivots and who we go to can actually, actually change. And so that with that said, maybe I'll might try to find guys that I, that I'll key in DFS or betting and,

You know, so I won't, I'll just give you a few names real quick. And so Hideki matches out really well for this course. We all know Berger, you know, probably going to be really overwhelmed on Berger or overweight, excuse me. But I will talk about one guy and that is Shane Lowry. And so I haven't looked at any sort of ownership with Shane, but he actually ranks out 20 and then at the top 15 in a couple of my models. But one thing he does really well, and I say really well, this is in the last 36 rounds,

is great from the par fours, the 400 to 450, which we find. He's great on approach. We know that. Good bogey avoidance. The 11th in 150 to 175. But what I really love about Shane Lowry is his trend progression with the ball striking stats.

I think he led or a second in the field last week at the Olympics in approach, just couldn't punt, and he also couldn't drive it very well. So if Shane can somehow keep it in the fairway this week, he could win. And that's a big if because he didn't do that last week, and he hasn't done that recently. But if he could, if he does find the fairway often this week, I think he has a good –

good win upside. And I think he's at 45 DK has him at 45 to one right now. And if he's low owned, especially on draft Kings, he could be, I could be a very overweight on him.

Well, I'm right there with you, man. He, I, I bet him at the Olympics and it was pretty disappointing because he was right. He was right there. And then, and then he shot a 71 on Sunday, which is like shooting a 78. But you know, what was so fascinating to me about Lowry at the Olympics was, and I don't know how much I'm supposed to trust these strokes gain stats. I don't know who compiled them on the Olympic website, but I'm just going to go ahead and trust him. But anyway, he was, he was God.

awful off the tee. So he lost 4.1 strokes off the tee. That's third worst in the entire field, but he was unbelievable on approach. So he gained 5.6 strokes on approach. Um, and he was pretty neutral around the green and putting. So we're talking about a guy that was third worst in the entire field of 60 off the tee and third best in the entire field of 60 on approach. Um,

I don't know what to do with that, but I tend to embrace volatility like that. You don't win golf tournaments by being 20th and everything. You win golf tournaments like Shane Lowry has showed us. He's won a WGC. He's obviously won a British Open. He has that high-end upside that we look for, both from a betting and DFS perspective, and

I look at Lowry and it's like the irons have been firing. This is a good course for him. He finished six here before. And yeah, I'm a hundred percent with you on, on Shane Lowery. He is somebody that I'm heavily considering both in DFS and betting. Yeah. And one thing I love to look at is look at long-term stats versus recent performance within the strokes gained data. So off the tee, we look at, yes, gosh, last week was terrible.

And even at the U.S. Open, he lost three strokes off the tee. Really, really bad. And so recency bias may kick in and say, gosh, well, he's going to be bad again this week. But if we zoom out and look at his total career, and so Fantasy National has the last 113 rounds over Shane Lowry.

well, he's gained a stroke off the tee and tee to green, two actually, tee to green over his whole career. And so what that just, and even if you look at shorter, the last 50, 20, 10, on average, he gains, he does well off the tee. And so we can expect some positive regression with the off the tee stats and maybe expects a heavy word, but we should bet because there's upside there to what you're talking about. It's volatile,

And we can maybe take advantage of that because if they're, if in the, what am I trying to say? If the positive regression actually happens. I follow. I know exactly what you're saying. Yeah. I think the same way. So I just think it's a great opportunity. So if he's low owned and drafting, so maybe the narrative of coming over to, you know, after the Olympics and play, people might not be, or they might be scared away at that. I think I'll jump on that, but I'm definitely going to bet him at 45 to one.

Can I ask you about, we'll kind of open this up now to include all of these guys in kind of, because the odds board is very strange this week, the way that WGCs work, where there's a lot of top end talent and then it gets very, it gets to be very slim pickings. It's the bottom of the board. But when we open it up to guys like Fleetwood and Cam Slater,

Yeah.

The guy that stood out to me as like the most mispriced guy, both in DFS and in betting is like Tyrell Hatton's the 13th ranked player in the world. I've seen him as high as 66 to one and he's $7,400 on DraftKings.

I think you have to play him provided that he's not 25% owned, but he's just so mispriced to me, man. And, and I actually usually fade those guys. Daniel Berger was very mispriced at the open and I didn't bite. And Sam Burns was very mispriced at the open and I didn't bite on that either, but I don't know. I look at a player like Hatton and,

I don't think a lot of people are going to have that opinion that he's incredibly mispriced. I don't think, I don't know if people are as high on Hatton as maybe I am. But, you know, I kind of tried to dig into it a little bit because I was like, am I right on Hatton? Because I feel like my perception on Hatton is way higher than a lot of people's perception on Hatton. And

Listen, I mean, he takes that like he wins and he's taken down some really respectable fields in Europe. And I know he missed the cut at the U S open in the British, but literally three starts ago, he finished second at the Palmetto and gained 12 strokes ball striking. I know that's a weak field, but like he can play. So when you see somebody like that, where he doesn't, his price is so off from your price, what are your thoughts?

Yeah. And so first we just want to know that, okay, DraftKings or even odds are just assumed value to a player. And so we shouldn't take that as gospel. That's because he's, you know, 7,400 or whatever he is to win. It doesn't mean that like if you're, yeah, I think he's 55 on DK outright. But yeah, just because DraftKings has him at 45 or at 7,300, is that what he's at?

7,400. Yes. 7,400. So just because he's at 7,400, we don't have to take on that. He's a 74 caliber. And so basically I always recommend this is when you're starting your draft Kings lineup, start with somewhere in the middle. Don't work top down because 99% of the people do that. So if you kind of really, really value and think there's value in hat, which I agree that there is, uh, start with your lineups right there.

and then work around it because we do have so much possible upside because maybe because of the mispricing with DK, but they kind of give you some, you know, hopefully some information about why Hatton can be a great play. You know what? Well, I'll ask you not to put you on the spot, but when you think of Terrell Hatton as a player, like what, what do you think is best like ability or what comes to mind? Irons. Yeah. I think irons. Yeah.

And I would say like putting too. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Irons and putting. And so we look at, speaking of positive regression, I think people are going to see the two MCs of the open and the US open and be scared away. It's probably how he's priced, how he is.

It's cheaper than Brian Harmon, Rob. Yeah, and he's lost. He lost three and a half, almost three and a half at the U.S. Open. And he's lost strokes putting three of the last four. That is not normally Carroll Hatton. And so it's a great, again, buy low opportunity because of the possible positive regression that gives us the opportunity for upside there. So I completely agree. And to back you up, he has some of the best strokes gained approach numbers over this last year.

career than anybody. And it just hasn't been there the last two tournaments, but we're not going to fall under recency bias because we know how quick that switch can flip. So we have an opportunity to take advantage of that. I'm glad you brought him up.

And a lot of the stuff that we're looking at too, it's not even counting in how prolific he's been on the European tour as well, where he's won a bunch of tournaments over there. I want to open it up to you and give you the opportunity to throw any other guys out here in this middle to lower end range before I give you one or two guys closer to the bottom that I have some interest in.

I have two guys who I really love at the bottom, so I'm excited to talk about that. I'll just say Cam Smith, Jason Kokrak, they're great plays. Kokrak seems like a great play, but you're going to read a lot about that this week, so I'm not going to talk about him much. I do want to talk about two guys, and one of them might be my favorite play, and that's Sergio Pena.

I know what he does with the putter. And yes, that scares me. He's not a good putter. So there's no positive regression coming with that. He's never been a good putter. But gosh, the way he's trending with the irons and he's great off the tee. He's a great driver.

And this won't be a birdie fest. You know, TPC Southlands, it's not the hardest course, but it's not the easiest either. And so Sergio does better at difficult courses where there's not a heavy dependency on how well you're putting. And so,

Sergio has the ability to ball strike a course to death. And so he gained seven strokes or over seven strokes on approach at the 3M. And he hasn't lost strokes on approach since mid-May. Even before that, we know what he did at the players and whatever. But he's trending the highest in my model than anybody out there. And I'm willing to say, you know, screw it with his putting and just hope that he has a

okay weak putting because his off the tee and strokes gained approach numbers are just so key. Yeah, what do you think? Okay, so he's going to be very trendy, Rob. He probably is, yeah. I haven't gotten a chance to listen to anything, but just talking to the people that I talk golf with,

there's a lot of Sergio interest. There's a lot of Sergio love. I know Feinberg's in on it and a couple other guys that I've just talked to are in on him as well. My problem with Sergio is...

If Sergio is going to be, and I'm talking now more about DFS. I think Sergio, given his upside is always a very fine outright bet, but you know, I look at Sergio at, at probably, I think 15% on Sergio seems about right. I know it's early, but I think from what I've seen, a lot of, a lot of people will be interested in Sergio and Sergio,

I think I'd rather play a 1% Justin Rose and take the chance. I'm so glad you brought... That was my other guy. Okay, yeah. I'm so glad you brought up Rose. Okay, so here's my thing with Rose is I get the Sergio. I get the Sergio love. But...

First of all, Rose legitimately needs to play well this week to qualify for the FedEx Cup. Sergio's comfortably at Rose's 134th in the standings. And you could say the same thing about Fleetwood and you can say the same thing about Scott. But Rose is 134th in the standings right now.

I don't think that there is Ryder Cup drama for Sergio. I think he's on that team. I think he has to be on that team, even if he doesn't do anything down the stretch. I think there's got to be an understanding that he's on that team. He should be on that team. But Justin Rose, what has Justin Rose done to earn any Ryder Cup love? Does Justin Rose, like today, does Justin Rose get picked as a captain's pick over Bobby Mack today?

I don't think so. Yeah, likely not. I mean, the only thing Justin Rose has done is just buy bigger shades of sunglasses recently. I mean, but I'm so glad you mentioned Justin Rose because, yeah, we'll get him. Again, I haven't looked at ownership projections, but we'll get him under 5%. And so I have my thoughts on Justin Rose. But, yeah, maybe what do you like about Justin?

So statistically with Rose, it's a little bit of a crapshoot. There's a lot going on. It's hard to find too many trend lines. And if there is one trend line, then if you want to be negative about it, you could say that the only reason that he's had any of his high finishes at the Masters and the PGA Championship is because of his putting. And I get that. I totally get that. That's fair. But

He's still a really good wedge to mid iron player over a larger sample size. He's finished 11th here in his only appearance. He's done some really good work on shorter Bermuda courses where you have to hit your irons and it's not like a total birdie fast. He was in, he was contending actually at the Arnold Palmer and rotational another Bermuda course. And then he just, he like shanked a ball out of the bunker in the middle of the third round and with drill. So we don't have the stats from that either.

but no one's going to play him, Rob. And I think this week where it's, it's a no cut event and there's so many guys to like at the top. And then once you get close down to this range in real,

Rose and even below in the low sevens and sixes. And I like Billy Ho too. There are some good players down here for sure. But I look at someone like Rose and I just, I think he's very undervalued and betting too. I think Justin Rose, Justin Rose at 80 to one, like I get it, but I mean, I, I found him to be extremely undervalued and I don't think that us saying anything about him. I'd be very surprised if, if he gets a lot of run this week.

Yeah. And, and so I'm going to, I'm going to throw out a humble brag. And so when I won that 50 K at, at here last year, I got Phil Nicholson at, at under 5% owned very similarly to what Justin Rose has kind of been showing now. And it doesn't, it's, this is not all black and white. It's, you know, it's just a coincidence. So just take it with a grain of salt, but with, with how he has been trending within kind of my model, uh,

It's not great and not in the great in the sense of his last four. He ranks the last four rounds. He ranks 35th. His last eight ranks 60 last 12 ranks 59. So it's, it's not great. But one thing with finding these guys in the seven K range or lower, you're wanting to identify not just the ceiling. That'd be great, but also just a little bit of an upswing on a trend toward the ceiling because at seven K you're,

He doesn't have to win, but he has huge equity. If you do want to bet him to win an 80 to one at a such great value, we know his win equity. But, but he actually is, he jumped some of the most in the last 12 to four rounds in that trend and ball striking numbers. And so he, he gained one or almost two at the open and this is not, there's not no red data behind it, but I kind of played him a little bit at the open and kind of

followed his round as much as I could, and he seemed to be hitting the ball better, finished 46. But as a traveler, we saw a little bit of life with him where he gained three and a half on approach. He gained two tee to green. Yeah, we just saw some life with him. And I was glad to see him do kind of

OK, at the open and this with his price and with his odds, this just has. OK, we're going to catch him possibly on that uptrend as he heads maybe toward a ceiling and maybe the narrative of the Ryder Cup and FedEx like we're talking about plays into that. But I'm going to play Justin Rose and largely going to be very overweight on him this week.

I'm with you. I'm going to play Justin Rose. I'm going to bet him at 80 to one too. Yeah. He's 14 to one for a top five. I may throw some on that too. Yeah. Yeah. And, and what it does is, and you, you mentioned it with Phil too, for me, I had the same situation where I did, I was able to do so well at, at Torrey Pines because I played a 1% Molinari at the same price. And

If you like a lot of the popular guys at the top, which I do, finding somebody like this, finding someone like this, like a Justin Rose, like a 1% Justin Rose, and you're right, he'll probably be closer to 5%, but it allows you to have so many more options because now you just get into a situation where it's like if everyone's going to play Sergio, think about how much advantage you can get if Rose beats Sergio.

Maybe Sergio beats Rose, but does Sergio beat Rose 15 times out of 16, the way some people are saying he's going to be Rose? Like, I, I just don't know. So I think it, I think there's so much, I think there's so much leverage there, but I want to now we're kind of in the range of just anyone. So tell me about the kind of more of the bargain bin guys that you wanted to talk about at the bottom. Yeah.

Sure. You know, Sam Burns, this is the time to jump back in on Sam Burns. Fits great for this, you know, great for this course. And I think we'll get some positive regression with the putter. Really, I want to, I'll give you a few names, but I'm interested to see what you say about Cameron Champ. I kind of like him.

what I'm seeing. I think there's some consistency there. I think this is a Max Homa week. This course seems like it would fit Max Homa. Everyone's talking about KH Lee, so I'm not going to touch there. My biggest guy that I think he's 150 to 1. No, he's 500 to 1 right now on DK is Jim Herman.

And so on DK, he's six. He's a minimum price, Jim Herman. He's minimum price. And there's no long-term stats they're going to jump out at you, except that he hits fairways. And he's kind of great with those mid to long irons. But one thing that Jim Herman does is he pops on my trend model in between almost Brooks and Louie and Sergio and Cates Lee and Victor Hovland. Herman is right in the middle of that.

And so for the last four rounds, he ranks fourth. Last grade, he ranks fifth. Last 12, he ranks ninth. So this is what my model is telling me. Last 12 rounds through four rounds,

He's playing like the fifth best guy in the field, which is incredible. And so you're getting at minimum price or 500 to one on DK. And he's probably going to be less than 2% on. But let me just tell you off the tee. He's been incredible since June. He gained half a stroke, 4.3, 3.5, 2.9 at the Barber stall off the tee. And he's gained approach in all those same tournaments, except the Memorial where he finished 26th.

So he's had top 30 in the last four tournaments, gained on every single possible stroke except for a round of green. And he's minimum price in 500 to one. Throw him in top tens, top 20, top 40. Admin price on DK, go overweight on him. Jim Herman could be a smash spot for me.

I love it. I am going to play Jim Herman. He was already on my radar, but I didn't really... I just pulled him up when you were talking about him, and I didn't realize how consistent he's been. Yeah, it's wild. It's been pretty unbelievable. The guy that I was looking at, too, and I wrote him up in the Roto Baller article, but I was very impressed with Martin Laird, with what I saw with Martin Laird. Yeah, yeah. And I...

I know that guys like Martin Laird and Jim Herman, they're only in this field because he won the, you know, I think Herman won Wyndham and Laird won the Shriners in October. But if you look at it, like Laird's hitting the ball great right now. And he's gained both off the tee and on approach in four consecutive starts. And the putter's been bad, but it kind of looks like he found something again in his most recent start where he

He gained 2.8 at the John Deere. So, you know, we're talking about a guy that, and I still don't even believe this number, but he gained 11.7 strokes at the PGA championship. Like I thought that was a typo. Like I felt weird typing that in an article that I wrote. Cause I was like, there's no way that's correct, but we know that he can get absurdly hot with his irons. And, you know, he also,

hits a lot of fairways and he's a better ball striker than Herman and Laird are both better ball strikers than a lot of these guys priced below them that you know

There's a lot of guys that you don't have a ton of data on either, and you've actually seen at least at the very minimum with these guys that they're able to produce some pretty solid ball-striking numbers against PGA Tour competition. So I'm right there with you on Laird and Herman. Is there anyone else? I have like one or two more guys that I can throw out, but I'm with you like...

Laird is my guy at that price that I'm going to use a lot of similar to how you're talking about with Herman. I'm going to use them both now because you kind of sold me on Herman. But man, if you find a guy like that, it just gives you so many options. Yeah. And I'm right there with you on Laird. I had him start

And so I'm going to let you speak because you have such great info, but I'll just give you two other names. I think I already mentioned Ryan Palmer. I'm going to be, I'm going to like him a lot this week. And then Lucas Glover, he can't putt either, but he can hit a lot of fairways and he kind of can knock it close to the hole, but it'll just four putt. But I like Palmer. And then I'm going to come back to Max. That's another big Max home a week, but I'll shut up and listen. So who are the guys, two other guys that you mentioned you really like?

Well, you know, what was interesting to me, Rob, is, and I try and look at this a lot. It was kind of my reason for, for playing Scott Stallings, the other, I think it was at the 3M or something like that, but it's always so fascinating to me how perception on, on people changes based on such a tiny sample size. So like, for example, at the John Deere Stallings was,

70 to one and 7,500 on draft Kings and like 14 or 15%. Like people loved Scott Stallings at, um, at the John Deere and he finished 55th and lost strokes putting. And then he is like,

$400 cheaper, double the odds, 150 to one and like 3% owned. And I was like, what changed guys? He had a bad putting week. He still made the cut. Like what, what changed? And Stallings did fine. Whatever. Bob McIntyre is like 9,100 at the 3m. He misses the cut because he loses three strokes putting and,

I don't know. I don't have a ton on Bobby Mack, but I just found it fascinating that the guy finishes eighth at the open. He's everybody's darling at the 3M. He's $9,000. I know it's the 3M, but still, he just misses the cut because he loses strokes putting. And I get this is a much better field, but now he's $6,600 and he doesn't exist. Everyone loved this guy.

Yeah. And here's why I love how you're conceptualizing all that. And here's why you're one of the greatest at what you do is, you know, you give the rationale behind, you know, your kind of leans or your bets or your plays. And so that and I love when you do that because it helps people learn. And so they can kind of do it, too. And when they tell you or they kind of do their own thing, because that is exactly right. You're taking advantage of.

the recency bias that people's minds will naturally give them. Oh gosh, Bobby Mac, you know, hasn't done so well. And that type of inconsistency, especially in DFS, makes people kind of lose consistently. And so you're saying, no, I'm going to zoom out and look at not just the recency bias, but I'm just going to zoom out and see, you know, over the course of, you know,

You know, I'm not saying I'm going to use the course of a season and say, gosh, okay, I'm getting opportunity to buy low because just a couple weeks ago he was chalky and this price and now we're getting a huge discount with them. And so you just conceptualizing it that way is so key and it's just so helpful. I think I hope for everybody listening to remind them that, you know,

your mind's gonna naturally wanna go to recency bias, but really zoom out and do what you just did, Andy, and see, okay, maybe this recency bias, we can kind of take advantage of for profit.

Does that make sense? It makes total sense. And look, as I mentioned, like I don't have a, I don't have, I'm not looking at European tour strokes gain data. I don't have as much on Bobby Mac as I would like, but you look at someone like that in that situation and who knows, maybe he was mispriced at the three app, but you'd look at a situation like that. And I think you're right. It's so,

It's so easy to capitalize on something like that based on how quickly people change. And you kind of almost have to have like short-term memory loss in this. And I hear people use the term blacklist all the time. Oh my gosh. I'm like, I think you're looking at it wrong. I really do. I think you're looking at it wrong. And I say that in the nicest way, but trust me, there's...

There's nothing that any golfer could ever do to be put on my blacklist if the price and the situation is right. Nothing. For better or worse. I hope people are like, I see that often too. And it's a pet peeve. And I know some of them are kidding, but some aren't.

But just to make meaning behind it, there's this thing called loss aversion that, okay, if I rostered Tony Finau and he was my highest priced golfer and he missed the cut and I got five of six, gosh, I'm so mad. I lost money. It hurts. And it's not fun at all. So then loss aversion comes in to say, okay, I have to –

I have to do whatever I can not to lose money that same way. And so we look at the solution is, oh, we blame Tony Finau. He was the problem. So the solution is not play him at all. And that's loss aversion. It will just make you more consistent or the fear will kick up and make you not invest or play or do your strategy how you should because you're getting swept in emotionally. And that's one thing you really have to be mindful, especially with DFS. Yeah, great point.

Alright, Rob. Well, is there anyone else that you want to touch on? I know you've got another show right around the corner that I'm excited to tune into. But is there anyone else that we missed that that you want to touch on before we head out of here?

Yeah, I'll just say Stewart Sink should not be $6,500. He's won twice, once this and once in the fall swing, I think. I know recently he missed cut at the opening at 3 a.m., but he's still playing really well. He should not be that price. That's all I got. Okay, I like that. Well, let's do a little recap of kind of our favorite plays and bats.

for me rob outright wise i think it's going to be dj at 20 hovland at 25 scheffler at 31 and the the only other guy i'm committed to is is rose at 80 so i kind of have room in that in that

40 to 60 range where I'm kind of still trying to decide between Lowry, as you mentioned, and Smith and Hatton. But the guys that I'm pretty locked into as of this moment are DJ and Hovland and Scheffler and Justin Rose.

I love it. And I'm locked in. I got Rory at 20 to one, uh, big on him. I haven't laid anything down yet, but probably we'll go, go to Scotty big on Lowry. Like we talked about. Um, and then my only one as of right now is I'll do something with Jim Herman, you know, top 25 to one for a top 10. So I'll throw some in there, but yeah, I'll probably, I'll probably do max max is 150 to one. Um,

But yeah, that's about four or five. Leaves me the opportunity to do maybe one or two more depending on the price. But that's where we're at as of Monday evening. All right, man. Well, before we get out of here, I know we talked a little bit about it at the beginning, but why don't you plug your show one last time and tell everybody where they can find you for the rest of the week?

I appreciate you. So yeah, every Monday night, usually around seven to seven 30, you have a little just DFS educational school and not that I'm like a teacher or anything. It's just a bunch of guests and I, and people listening, share collaborative ideas to help better and maybe sharpen our tools, the DFS industry, especially related to, to golf, to PGA. So if you're interested in that sort of thing, come, come check me out on Monday nights.

Rob, thank you so much, my friend. And we will do this again, I'm sure many times in the future, buddy. I appreciate your time, man. Thank you. That's it for me, guys. I will be back next week. Pretty big guess next week for the window. Potentially. We'll see. I'm not going to reveal it, but it might be a good show. So have a great rest of the week and I'll catch you next time.

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