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Okay, so I'm recording this at 11 a.m. Pacific time on a Sunday morning. First of all, I want to say happy Father's Day. Shout out to all the dads out there. Happy Father's Day to my dad. I wish I could be watching the golf with my dad today. He's on the East Coast right now, and I am on the West Coast, but I'll be back on the East Coast soon enough. I think...
Part of what makes the U.S. Open my favorite tournament is the fact that the Sunday falls on Father's Day. I think it just adds an extra element to what makes this tournament so special. So I just wanted to start by saying happy Father's Day to all the dads out there. Enjoy the golf today. It's a really fun day. As most of you know, I got the chance to spend the last two days at Torrey Pines. I drove back
after the end of yesterday's round last night. Before we get into the Travelers, I want to share just a few observations. So I'll be honest, I pretty much only watched Xander. I got a little bit of Brooks. I got a little bit of Justin Thomas, a little bit of Rory, and a lot of Phil and Homa because they were paired with Xander on Friday and all of Scheffler's round on Saturday because he was paired with Xander as well.
I know that I'm biased and I probably wouldn't talk about this stuff if I was working for a CBS or a golf channel and I had a media credential. Right. But, you know, I, I like talking about this stuff on my platform because I,
I'm a fan of golf. I have been my entire life. I think a lot of people in this industry, golf gambling, that is, were introduced to golf through gambling. And I wasn't. I was introduced to gambling through golf.
So I don't need money on players to root for them. I'm going to root for the players that I'm a fan of because I just love this game so much and I love watching it. And if the players that I have money on win, that's great. But I treat that completely separately. And I wanted to watch Xander and I had a blast. I had an absolute blast.
And I'll tell you what my takeaway is. And it's not going to be a Xander love fest. I was really disappointed with some stuff, but he hit the ball so damn well.
And I have context, right? Like I've been going to golf tournaments my whole life. I've been lucky enough to go to eight majors. I've played against guys that are now on the Corn Fairy Tour. It's not like I'm coming in saying, wow, this guy hit the ball so great, right? Because if you go into a golf tournament and have never really seen live golf before, everyone hits the ball so great, right? Everyone flushes everything, right?
Because they're just at such a different level. And the sound of the ball is so crisp. And it's almost hard to differentiate if you haven't watched a lot of golf videos.
before a lot of live golf that is before like who really is hitting the shots that they want to hit who really is in control of their game and who's not in control of their game because like i said everybody hits the ball on the center of the clubface almost every time that's not really the way that i judge who's playing well or not i was just so impressed with what i saw out of zander
And I've seen him a bunch before. You know, the last time I saw him was at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, and he contended in that tournament. There's in fact, there's a pretty good chance he finishes better in that tournament that he does in this one. Like I said, I don't know. It's a Sunday morning. I'm recording this on a Sunday morning. I want to get this out to you guys as soon as the U.S. Open ends.
So I have no idea what's going to happen on Sunday, but he's probably not going to win. He needed to make that putt on 18 to have a real chance to get in at two under. I think he's probably not going to win. He is so much better now than last time I saw him. And I went to check the numbers and
after to see. And sure enough, he's led the field in strokes gain ball striking. Second in strokes gain off the tee, 10th in strokes gain approach, only player to rank inside the top 10 in both strokes gain off the tee and strokes gain approach. He has gained so much distance. He was out driving Scheffler on every hole, sometimes by 15 or 20 yards. And Scheffler's long. He was out driving Phil and Phil is long. Xander's small, by the way. He's not a big dude.
His short game has improved so much. He gained 1.5 strokes around the green through three rounds, and he'll be the first to tell you that is normally his biggest weakness of his game. It's the reason he didn't win in Phoenix earlier this year. It's the reason he missed the cut at Kiowa. His short game was incredible this week.
His short game was unbelievable this week. Some of the shots he hit when he was short-sighted out of bunkers and thick rough. I don't know if strokes gained around the green accounts for a degree of difficulty on some of these chips, but some of the shots that Zander hit greenside were some of the best and most confident I have seen him around the greens. I was really, really impressed. No one in the top 20 through three rounds has putted worse.
Now, I've heard the take a lot that the arm locking was a mistake. It ruined him. He shouldn't have done it. I just think that's lazy. I think it's a really lazy take to say that because he didn't putt well this week. He changed to this arm locking less than a month ago. He implemented it at the Memorial, right? This is his second real week of doing it. And the putts didn't fall this week.
They didn't fall this week. I got a chance to watch him grind on the putting green with his coach. Incredibly nice guy. I was able to share a brief exchange with his putting coach. And he said, listen, it's all there. It's all there right now. Everything is how it should be. Sometimes they don't drop. And he just couldn't buy a putt this week. But the idea that the arm locking was a mistake, you know, he ruined his putting stroke. He ruined his mojo.
It's just lazy. It's been two real tournaments that he's implemented this. And he's a really smart guy, as all professional golfers are. All these guys are really smart. They don't just shoot from the hip, right? Anytime they make a change, there's a lot of thought put into it. These guys have incredible teams around them.
Right. I know Xander's team is incredible because I walked 36 holes with them, not talking to them, not with them. But you know what I mean? I was right there. And did I eavesdrop a little bit? You bet I did just a little bit. Right. And so the idea that this was this giant mistake is lazy. It's lazy because you have no idea what goes into that.
What goes on with these guys and the decisions that they make? I have no idea, right? I just think that I have a little bit more trust in what these guys are doing than maybe the person that is panning Xander for the arm locking. And I get it. It is a disappointment. Listen, if the take is he should have waited until after the US Open to make a change, I can kind of get behind that. I understand that.
I understand the thinking with this is an incredibly important tournament to him. He's been waiting for it his entire life. Let's not make a change until you have this stretch of golf, you know, later in the summer. But at the same time, the issue with that is if not now, when, right? Like the British opens in a month. Xander cares about the Olympics, right?
The Olympics is soon, right? The Olympics are really important to Xander too. There's a ton of important tournaments coming up, the FedEx Cup playoffs too. So if not now, when? He put a lot of thought into making this change. And it's been bumpy at the beginning, as all changes are. Anyone that has played golf and has made a change with their swing,
or a change with their putting, grip, whatever. It's worse before it gets better. It is always worse before it gets better. And the worst thing that you can do as a golfer, and let me tell you, I have done this and made really stupid mistakes with swing changes before, is bail because you're not seeing the results fast enough. So to expect Xander to gain momentum
I don't know, have one of the best putting weeks of his life or one of a better putting weeks of his life or just in general, not struggle. I think it's a lazy way to look at it. I think it's a really lazy way to look at it. He's going to be fine. He's going to be fine. I trust his camp. I trust his team. Just like I trust Bryson's camp. Just like I trust Bryson's team, right?
These guys, it's just their life, right? They put a lot of thought into this. So I think that Xander's putting is going to be fine. They didn't fall this week. He burned a ton of edges. I counted four or five lip outs on short ones too. I think he's going to be fine. All right, let's get to the Travelers Championship. This is a fun tournament that I really like.
Uh, it is being held at TBC river Highlands. It's been held there since 1984. It's in Cromwell, Connecticut, right where I went to boarding school, shout out Hotchkiss. It's a really beautiful area of the country, that Northwest corner of Connecticut. It's been the week after the U S open since 2007 with one exception, I believe, um, when it played in August because of the Olympics. But you know, this event is always the second most attended on the PGA tour right behind Phoenix. Uh,
So it will be interesting to see how many fans they let in this week. I believe it's going to be around 10,000 because the fans are often what makes this tournament so great. In 2002, they set an attendance record with 400,000 fans that week.
So former winners of this tournament, Dustin Johnson won here at 19 under. Chez Revy won here in 2019 at 17 under. Bubba at 17 under. Jordan Spieth at 12 under. Russell Knox, 14 under. Bubba Watson at 16 under. Kevin Strillman at 15 under. Ken Duke in 2013 at 12 under. Mark Leishman at 14 under. Wide variety of winners, right? Just...
On first glance, in a total vacuum, you see Dustin and then Chez Reavy and then Bubba Watson, right? By the way, Kevin Strillman finished second to Dustin Johnson. It's jarring, right? You have two bombers and some of the shorter hitters on tour as well. The reason for that is, and I've thought a lot about TPC River Highlands over the past two days. In fact, I skipped out on...
The morning of Saturday, I didn't go to the U.S. Open on Saturday morning at all. I only went when Xander teed off in the afternoon because I wanted to get enough research on TPC River Highlands to really have a feel for this course, for this podcast. And my biggest takeaway on TPC River Highlands, I just think that this is a putting contest.
And, you know, top 10 finishers have gained an average of close to four strokes putting this week. You know, that's more than approach. It's around double off the tee. It's more than double around the green. I know you could say that every event on the PGA tour is somewhat of a putting contest. I think this is different. So let me explain what I'm talking about.
I understand that putting is a variable statistic, right? And there are a lot of people that don't look at putting at all in their models. I think you'd be kind of silly not to look at putting here. I know it's volatile, but at the same time, there are good putters and there are bad putters over a large sample size. It really helps if you are a good putter here.
Or you could just try and catch the guy who gets hot this week. That's certainly in play too. Bubba Watson isn't necessarily known as a great putter, but he always putts well here, right? Even DJ last year. How did DJ win? Well, the way that DJ always wins, he dominates off the tee and is good with his irons.
No, that's actually not what happened. DJ actually gained zero strokes off the tee and gained six strokes putting. DJ gained zero strokes off the tee last year and gained six strokes putting. That's how DJ won the Traveler's Championship. That's how everyone wins the Traveler's Championship, right?
There were zero players in the top 10 last year that lost strokes putting, but multiple players in the top 10 that lost strokes off the tee and lost strokes on approach. Mackenzie Hughes, for example, finished third in this tournament, losing three strokes on approach. Very, very rarely do you ever see a player finish in the top three of a PGA Tour tournament losing three strokes on approach.
It just never happens. The point I'm trying to illustrate is that's how you play well here. It's not that hard. Everyone is going to hit these fairways. Everyone is going to hit these greens. It just comes down to who's going to make the most putts. And that makes it a very difficult event to handicap, right? Because this tournament is completely wide open, completely wide open. There are a few players in this field that,
that I could definitively tell you, like, that's a terrible pick. Because you could basically say about everyone, well, he can catch a hot putter. Look at this time he got hot with the putter. Look, he gained seven strokes putting a couple weeks ago. It's wide open. So I'm going to still look at all this stuff, and I'm going to tell you what I think you should be looking at to help whittle down your player pool. But at the end of the day,
If you're feeling someone, go for it. Because putting is so difficult to predict. I think the sentence, and I've used it before, his putting is trendy. I've gotten burned so many times thinking that way. I don't really know if I believe in the idea of a trending putter. I think it's a bit of a fallacy. I've spent so much time looking at this stuff. And the amount of guys that go from losing three strokes putting one week
to gaining three strokes putting the next, to back to losing two strokes putting, to back to gaining two strokes putting. If anything, it often flip-flops more so than it builds. So what I think you could maybe do is you could maybe look at someone that just putted poorly. A lot of times guys follow up really bad putting weeks with really good ones.
Even if they're just, you know, if they're just generally okay putters. I'm not talking about someone like Hideki where, you know, it can really, really get going in the wrong direction and spiral. But guys like Hovland, guys like Finau, on the higher end, guys like Spieth too, they tend to follow up good putting weeks with bad ones and vice versa.
Does that have to do with the idea that maybe some of these players that are proven ball strikers, when they have a bad putting week, they maybe tend to spend more time focusing on their putting week and then follow it up with a spike putting week? Who knows? That theory makes sense on paper. But as someone who stares at the numbers way longer than I would ever recommend anyone doing,
I have come to the conclusion that it is next to impossible to predict putting, which by the way, you know, these tournaments are fun, but you're going to drive yourself absolutely nuts trying to figure out who's going to putt the best this week. Right. Because at the end of the day, it's just too volatile of a statistic to predict, but we'll do the best that we can.
I still do believe that there are a lot of edges that we can find. So let me get into the key stats that I think you should weigh. I'm throwing a little strokes gain par fives in there at a small weight. I understand that this is a par 70 with only two par fives on the course. But you know, guys who have played well here have just absolutely dominated the par fives. They've gained double in relation to the field what they have on the par threes. So I'm going to put a small weight on par fives.
I'm not going to be looking at greens and regulation gained. I'm not going to be looking at sand saves gained. I'm not going to be looking at fairways gained. I'm not going to be looking at good drives gained. I just couldn't find really any positive correlation whatsoever from those statistics. And guys that have played well here, I just don't think that those are things that you want to really look at this week.
You know, greens and regulation percentage and driving accuracy percentage, both way easier here than the tour average. So I just don't really know if that's the right stuff to look at this week. I think everyone's going to be hitting fairways in green. I think I never want to say that ball striking is mitigated, but I think that it's mitigated more so here than most other courses.
I'm not going to kill anyone for looking at par four scoring between 400 and 450 yards because there are seven par fours on this course in that yardage range. So I'm absolutely going to be looking at that just a little bit at those guys that play those medium length par fours well. I still don't think that it is something that you should really live and die by or put a huge heavy weight on because a lot of that is just random.
It's hard to say like these guys are definitively the best in the world at playing medium length par fours. A lot of that can end up being randomness. So, you know, it's worth looking at, but I wouldn't put a ton of stock into it either.
proximity wise, I'm looking at three ranges. I think you want to look at 125 to 150, 150 to 175 and 200 yards plus. And you may say, well, why proximity from 200 yards plus? Well, despite this course being short, 21% of the approaches still come from 200 yards plus. And the reason for that is there's still two par fours over 450 yards plus.
Both of the par fives are reachable and two of the par threes are over 200 yards. It's really that 175 to 200 range where there's nothing really there. But proximity from 150 to 175 yards, 25% are coming from that range. That is huge. To put that in perspective, tour average is 20%.
Now, that may not sound like a huge difference, but it's a pretty sizable one. So many of the approach shots this week are coming from that 125 to 175 yards range, you know, because it's not a very long course. So that kind of gap wedge to eight iron, you really want to find players that are best with a short iron in their hands. And even if they aren't great at that, they have to make a million putts.
I know that sounds very oversimplified, but that's really what it comes down to. There's nothing sneaky or hard to figure out about this course. Hit your wedge as well and make putts.
The other two things kind of in that same vein that I'm going to be looking at that I do think really matters is opportunities gained and birdies are better gained. Opportunities gained is basically the amount of birdie looks inside 15 feet that a player gives himself. That is going to be absolutely huge this week. Obviously, you have to make those putts, but I really want guys that are giving themselves the most opportunities to score.
You know, I'm not saying that this course is like super easy or a joke. There have been years when it's played more difficult and the wind picks up. But, you know, last year the cut was three under. Usually it's around one under. In the last three years, you had to get to 17 under. At least. DJ won at 19 under last year. So I'm looking for guys that can make birdies. Birdies are better gained and opportunities gained. I think those are two really, really great stats to look at this week.
strokes gain total courses under 7,200 yards. Now you may say like, why are you going to look at that? That seems kind of random. The guys that have played well on short courses. Yes. And no, I think that there is a certain player profile that does play well on the Harbor town, the Y lie, the colonial, uh,
TPC Sawgrass is another shorter Pete Dye course that you can throw in there. I think there are a lot of players that kind of
They just, they're guys you want to target on these shorter courses. Daniel Berger was one of the guys that stuck out to me. He's actually number one in this field over his last 24 round on strokes gained total on courses under 7,200 yards. And looking at his results this year, it makes a ton of sense. He played well at TPC Sawgrass. He played well at Harbortown. He played well at Colonial. He played well at Wiley.
You know, I don't think all that stuff is random. I think there are some players that they see one of these courses that are a little bit shorter, that place a greater emphasis on approach and putting, and they just jive with that, right? They just jive with that more, just like on longer courses. I'm going to look at strokes, gain ball striking on courses over 7,400 yards, but
On shorter courses, I'm going to look at players that play well on kind of these shorter tracks like a Harbortown, like a Colonial, like a Wiley, even a Honda Classic a little bit, even a TPC Sawgrass a little bit. And that doesn't mean that you should only play shorter players. Bryson plays great on short courses, right?
Right. He is actually, I believe, second to Daniel Berger in strokes gain total on courses under 7,200 yards. That's just because Bryson is one of the five best players in the world. He plays well on any course, right? There's no real Bryson courses. He's going to be good anywhere. So Bryson,
This doesn't just mean like, oh, play shorter guys. But I do think that there is a certain type of player that when you get onto these shorter courses, they're feeling a little bit more confident. There may be a little bit better with their wedges, with their short irons, and they can hold a lot of putts too, because the shorter the course is,
It usually means the less emphasis on ball striking and the more emphasis on wedge play and putting. So I do think it's important to look at strokes gain total on courses under 7,200 yards, or at least I am strokes gain total on Pete died courses as well. Again, I think Pete die. He has a lot of the same design elements with a lot of his courses. There are a lot of very similar features to beat die courses and there are players. Abraham answer comes to mind again,
Bryson is actually another guy that comes to mind. Dustin Johnson, too, as well. Even Berger a little bit, too, are all guys that just tend to perform really well on Pete Dye courses. His kind of courses fits their eyes. Now, if you wanted to get really kind of sneaky here, you could put Pete Dye courses under 7,200 yards. You could filter it that way, right? Because
TPC River Highlands is not a great comp for Kiowa Island or Whistling Straits, right? So not all Pete Dye courses are created equal. Those 7,600-yard Pete Dye courses are a lot different than 6,800-yard Travelers. So I'm not saying that you should live and die by this by any means, but I do think it's something I always look at any time we are on a Pete Dye course. And then Strokes game putting on POA as well.
This is East Coast POA, not West Coast POA, like we have seen at Torrey Pines. I'm still a little dubious on how much of a giant difference that actually is. So I'm okay just looking at strokes gained putting on POA in general, but I
Again, like I'm really looking more so at long-term putting splits and who is a good putter just in general and kind of who has spike putting weeks. You're going to kind of need a spike putting week to win this tournament. So I know there's not a stat to measure this, but I'm kind of looking at how many times a guy has gained like over four strokes putting in a given year. Like what's the percentage of,
that a guy goes nuclear with their putter, right? Because there are a lot of guys that basically gain a stroke putting every single week and rank 30th in strokes, gain putting. There's also a lot of guys that lose three strokes, putting some weeks and gain four strokes, putting the next week. And they have the same overall ranking as the steady guys, right?
I like playing the volatile guys because I want the guys that have that hot one in their bag. I'd rather have you be losing strokes, putting and gaining strokes, putting than just kind of steady, because I think you have to get really hot with your putter to win this tournament. So that's kind of something I'm looking at with putting. But like I said before,
It is so difficult to predict putting. You are going to absolutely drive yourself crazy trying to find putting trends and angles because it just goes back and forth and flip-flops so many times. So, you know, you kind of have to do your best. And I think this tournament, it's a lot of feel because I think it's wide open. It's so much of it is about who's going to putt the best. So like I've already mentioned, I don't think...
It's a terrible strategy to go more based on who you're kind of just feeling this week because of the volatility involved with a tournament like this where it basically just turns into a putting contest. So I weighed all of those statistics, and over the last 36 rounds, the top 10 in my model were Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Max Homa, Dustin Johnson, Charlie Hoffman, Paul Casey, Abraham Anser, Bryson DeChambeau, Scotty Scheffler, and Patrick Cantlay.
No real surprises at the top there. Um,
I think seeing, you know, Homa and Hoffman are guys that are going to continue to rate out well in my model, despite not being the elite player that a Brooks or a DJ or a Bryson or even a Paul Casey or Patrick Cantlay are. But they do check a lot of boxes for this course, and they're probably going to continue to rate highly in my model. Doesn't mean I'm going to go there, though.
So let's talk about some of the elites real quickly at the top. This is a good field. Tony Finau, Abraham Anser, Scotty Scheffler, Joaquin Neiman, Paul Casey, Cam Smith, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Scott, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Rose. They're all playing this week. Now,
This tournament has a high likelihood to see some withdrawals based on like if Bryson wins the U.S. Open or if Dustin wins the U.S. Open or if Scotty Sheffield wins the Open or if Paul Casey wins the U.S. Open. Those are all guys that are within five strokes back. If one of those guys wins the U.S. Open, I think...
They're probably likely to withdraw. I also believe that even if one of these guys contends, they may withdraw. I was surprised to see that Bryson, DJ, and Brooks are in the field. So watch out for the Monday WDs.
If they do post those odds, and they probably won't because they're squeamish and afraid of getting burned, but if they do post those odds, if you have a strong lean, it might not be a terrible idea to get in on someone pretty early because I do think this tournament has high withdrawal potential from the top. I was a little surprised to see guys like DJ Bryson and Brooks
and Cantlay, I guess, although he always kind of plays here and has played really well here in the past. So let's go Brooks, Bryson, and DJ are kind of flight risks a little bit, in my opinion. I kind of think I'm going to start my card somewhere in the Scheffler and Neiman range. I really like both of those guys. I think Finau
If this is a week that everyone is off Finau because of the miscut, he was very popular at the U.S. Open. This might be a decent spot for Finau. The problem is that he had just putted so badly that
And then at the U.S. Open, he actually putted OK and hit the ball so badly. But if this is a week where it seems like people really have soured on Finau because he's been so popular the last couple of weeks and just hasn't really been playing that well, this might be the type of week that I hop back on Finau. Answer's going to get mushed to death.
Uh, you know, he checks every box for me. That's great. Amazing on Pete die. Great course history here. He's coming off a miscut where he gained six strokes on approach. You know, maybe, maybe if, uh,
People are afraid to play him coming off a miscut at the U S open. He was popular there too. He's popular every week, but I highly doubt it. The Abraham answer is so synonymous with this course that he's probably going to be mushed to death and unplayable on draft Kings and come in at way overinflated odds. I will probably abstain from that. All those guys like Kevin Streelman, Brian Harmon, uh, Keegan, probably still Charlie Hoffman, uh,
All those guys, they're going to be really, really, really popular this week as well. I think I will probably end up pivoting, as I usually do, and look to find some other guys that I think could have success here. I think at the top, and I do think that they will be pretty popular overall,
As well, we'll see what the odds come in as. But like I said, I really like Scheffler. I watched him all day on Saturday because he was playing with Xander, and he just really impressed me. I think he's a really great player. I think he's very close to a win. I think a lot of people will probably bet him this week. I hope the odds aren't too overinflated, but Scotty Scheffler is just really good. And...
I kind of hope he sucks on Sunday at the U S open. So we maybe can catch a little bit of a price break, but Scotty Scheffler, walking Neiman, Daniel Berger too. He's having, it looks like he's starting out hot already at the U S open are some guys I'm probably interested in at the top. This isn't really a week where I could see myself betting Brooks or DJ or Bryson or even Patrick Cantlay or even Patrick Reed, uh,
or even Paul Casey. I mean, maybe, but I just think it's such a volatile course. I think it's such a volatile tournament that anyone could win that I'm a little bit hesitant to pay up for one of these top guys when, you know, the advantage that they have at Torrey Pines on a U.S. Open course or a long course where ball striking is so important. I just don't think that they possess that much of an advantage this week. I think ball striking is kind of unbeatable
all normalized here in a sense. I think everyone's going to be hitting these fairways. Everyone's going to be hitting these greens. It's just going to come down to who can make the most putts. So I have a harder time kind of wanting to pay up for some of these guys when I think it's kind of a wide open tournament. I'll tell you the guys that I probably am...
Absolutely going to bet. I know for a fact that I will be betting Taylor Gooch. I think Taylor Gooch is a smart play this week. I know he's played the Travelers twice. He's missed the cup both times, but the volatile nature of this event doesn't have me too concerned about the course history. I think Gooch can really succeed here. Over his last 36 rounds, he's 11th in approach, 19th in opportunities gained, 19th in birdie or better gained opportunities.
I just really like what I've been seeing with Gooch. I think he's really, really good. I firmly believe that he is close to breaking through. He's made 12 of 14 cuts this year, including five in a row. Finished 21st at the Amex. That's a shorter Pete Dye course. 12th at Riviera, Poa Green's.
Fifth at the players, that's another short Pete Dye course. 14th at Colonial, that's another short approach and putting course. And 26th at Quail Hollow and 18th at Mirafield Village. Those are all not similar courses to Travelers, but just really strong fields. And he's finishing in the top 25 of them. Finished fifth at the players. I just think Gooch is really good. He's the one guy that I can tell you I don't really care what the odds are going to be on him. I'm going to bet Taylor Gooch this week. He's gained over 4.5 strokes on approach.
four different times this season, including his two most recent starts. He can get hot enough with the putter as well to win an event like this. He's gained over two strokes putting on six separate occasions this week. Like I just think he's good. I think it's a really sharp play. I'm really interested in Griot. I don't know how popular Griot has going to be. He's been a little chalky for my liking and I haven't done a lot of Griot just recently. I
Uh, but I, you know, maybe coming off the Memorial, he'll be less popular. This is a field where you get your Hoffman's your Kirk's and your Tringales and your Varner's all back in the mix. And I think Rio is really the best option out of all of those guys. And by my number. So, you know, maybe I can get a little bit of a break on Griot because like I said, this is such a great field and I do like Griot the best here. Uh,
He's just been hitting the ball so well over his last 36 rounds, fourth and approach six in proximity from one 50 to one 75 yards. First in par four scoring on those medium length par fours, fifth and opportunities gained in seventh and birdies are better gained. Here's the thing that I like about grill. And obviously we know what he can do on approach. He's gained over six strokes on approach four times a season. He had kind of a down approach week at the Memorial and only gained 2.1 strokes putting and,
or sorry, only gained 2.1 strokes on approach. He actually gained 1.3 strokes putting in four of his last six starts. You know, he's been really, really solid rebounding off of bad putting weeks lately. You know, he lost strokes putting at the Farmers. He came back the next week and gained 2.8 strokes in Phoenix. He lost strokes putting at the Genesis Farmers.
came back the next week and gained 0.9 strokes putting at the API, lost strokes putting at the players, came back the next week and gained strokes putting at Corrales, lost strokes putting at the Valspar, came back the next week and gained 3.4 strokes putting at the Wells Fargo. So Griot's really improved.
with the putting and kind of like I've said with that zigzag approach, he's been really good coming off of bad putting weeks and he lost strokes putting at the Memorial. And every time he's lost strokes putting this year, he's rebounded really nicely when he loses to it's, it's not been as much of a disaster as it used to be either. You know, he's only had one tournament all season where he's lost over two strokes putting and
I think that he can get hot enough to win, win this tournament. I think, um, he's so good on approach that, you know, if he has one of his plus seven approach weeks, which he's been doing routinely recently, he may not need to have one of those crazy putting weeks. He could probably pair that with a plus three putting week, which, you know, he does that routinely now and win this tournament. I'm,
I'm not concerned about his short game. I'm not concerned about him off the tee. He's good on shorter approach courses. He ranks 10th in strokes game total on courses, measuring under 7,200 yards over his last 36 rounds already finished eighth at colonial this year. Second at heritage. I really think he could win this week. I'm 99.9% in on griot. That's probably it in terms of like strong early leans. Um,
I want to see where the wind blows with Ricky Fowler. I've been kind of watching him like a hawk, and I'm very curious to see what his DraftKings ownership is, what his odds are. You know, he has not played this event since 2014. He's finished 13th twice at this event, but it was back in kind of the early 2010s.
He's now coming off back-to-back top 12 finishes on good courses and hard fields. Both weeks, he gained over 1.6 strokes on approach, and both weeks, he gained over 3.9 strokes putting. That's pretty much the formula this week. If you're picking a course for Ricky Fowler to succeed at based on what he's doing well, this is probably it.
I just don't know if I trust it yet. Right? Like the last time that Fowler had back-to-back top 12 finishes was the first two events of the 2020 seasons. That was 18 months ago. I think he's on my radar for the first time in a while. And I'm very curious to see what the odds are. I'm very curious to see what the DraftKings price is and what the ownership is as well. I think that's probably it in terms of strong early leans. Like I said, I,
At the top, my kind of lean is to a guy like Scheffler or Neiman, maybe Finau, doubtful on answer in Casey, maybe Cam Smith, maybe Berger, but I'm probably leaning towards one of Scheffler or Neiman or both. I am 1000% betting Taylor Gooch.
I already read him up in the Rotoballer article that I did today, and I am 99.9% there on Emiliano Grillo as well. Farther down the board, I'm probably looking closer at guys like Brendan Steele, Lanto. Lanto's been really good to me. I think Streelman's going to get mushed to death. I think Henley's probably going to get mushed to death.
I think Wolf is probably going to get mushed to death. Maybe Molinari. He's been good to me this week. Played a 0.79% Molinari on like all of my DraftKings lineups. Unfortunately, I paired every Molinari lineup with Justin Rose. Um, and, but Molinari has been playing really, really good this week and he's going to hopefully looks like he's going to cash a top 40 bet for me. So I may have some interest in Molinari here. Uh,
Carlos Ortiz as well, who did let me down very much this week and miss the cut. But I do kind of like Ortiz maybe coming off the missed cut. I'm not afraid to go back to him. Kisner's playing a little bit better, so I probably have some interest in Kisner. I think a guy that's going to be very popular is a player that I love by the name of Doc Redman coming off a top-tier
to finish. I think he finished runner up at the Palmetto and hit the ball. Great. So I don't think Redmond is going to be catching anyone by surprise. I don't know if I'm going to get there yet. I could see him being a very, you know, when Redmond was on his run, he was a very, very popular guy because he was mispriced. So I
I don't know if I'm there yet with Redmond either in DraftKings or for an outright bad. I think I probably just how I do it. I'll probably lean more so with like the Kisner's if I dig into his numbers at Torrey. That's it. That's a big deal for Kisner to make the cut at Torrey. Right. And he has been he's been I've been following him. I've kind of been monitoring him and he's playing a little bit better.
Right. And I always try and find these guys that no one's really paying attention to a little bit like I did with Molinari before the U.S. Open. Right. That, you know, on the surface, their form may not be very good. But upon deeper dive, they're kind of showing they're starting to show some stuff like Brendan Steele is another guy that I think.
is a pretty good play this week, depending on odds and ownership. He's played really well at the Travelers Championship. He was kind of a popular guy in the 6,000 range at the US Open, and obviously he missed the cut. I think this is a pretty good spot for Brendan Steele. But that's about it, guys. I will be back on Tuesday morning.
with my full betting breakdown with my pal Chris Powers from the Be Right podcast, writer at Golf Digest. Great guy. I love Chris Powers. You probably know him from his tweets of Brooks funny videos this week and Jordan Spieth kind of twisting his arms, sending fear into the entire Twitter community this
Chris is a really fun guy to talk to. I love the Be Right podcast. He's one of the co-hosts of that with the guy Stephen Hennessey and Alex Myers. Those guys are always great and a great lesson every week. So I'm super excited to talk to Chris about this week's tournament, the Travelers Championship. And I know he's an East Coast guy, so he'll probably have some good perspective on it as well. But yeah,
That's it for me guys. That's what I've got for now. Once again, happy father's day to all the dads out there and enjoy the final round of the U S open. Hopefully either Rory, Dustin or Casey, uh, can cash a bet for us, even though, you know, I,
I hope Xander ends up being the one lifting the trophy. There are a lot of great players in the mix that I know a lot of guys has bet. I know there's a lot of guys that have exposure to Bryson, a lot of guys that have exposure to Brooks, a lot of guys that have exposure to Rom. So it should be an incredible Sunday. I'm super excited to watch.
Once again, I will see you guys on Tuesday for my betting preview of the Travelers Championship. Happy Father's Day and have a great rest of the weekend. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are
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