TOUR Championship Betting & DFS Preview
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I love fantasy football. I'm more of a season long than a DFS guy, but my fantasy draft for my home league is tomorrow night. And we've had the league for five years and each year we've increased the buy-in by $100. So now it's up to $500. Now here's the thing.

All of these guys, all my Duke friends and high school friends from the city, they all work on Wall Street now. So to them, that's whatever. But to me, that's a lot. That's serious. But even though it's gotten way out of my price range...

I still think it's a worthy investment because I'm better than those guys at fantasy football. I say that without having ever won the league in the last five years, but I've come in second twice and made the playoffs every single year. And I really think this is the year I've been grinding out on Roto Ballers draft kits, looking at their projections, doing a lot of mock drafts.

I'm feeling good. I'm feeling good. So if you want to win your fantasy league too, and get all of these tools for basically no money, head on over to rotoballer.com, sign up for Rotoballer's NFL premium pass and use promo code Andy. Okay, let's get to the show. All right. I'm recording this at 8 p.m. Eastern on Sunday night, right after the BMW playoff just finished.

I just played 126 holes of golf over the past four days. My best friend, Fruin, from Oklahoma for the weekend. I hadn't seen him in eight months because he moved back to Oklahoma for a job. So that was awesome. And we have the best golf matches. I'm a two and he's a 14. So I give him 12.

And through 126 holes match play, I beat him by four holes and neither had seen each other or played with each other in nearly a year. So neither of us had any idea where the other person's game was at.

For some reason, if I'm playing well, he'll rise to the occasion and vice versa. And if one of us is playing like shit, he'll will just kind of sink to the other's level. So it always ends up being close no matter what. But I say all this because I did not watch or keep up with one second of this golf tournament until I got home this afternoon to watch the playoff. Azinger is unbearable, by the way.

I will say this from a quick glance at the scores throughout the week. I will totally eat some crow as the driver of the, from what I'm seeing on paper, this course should be a little harder than people might think bandwagon. Nope, nope, not even close.

Should have looked harder at the amount of rain that area had been getting because when it's soft like that,

It's open season and length of course is not what makes courses difficult for pros. It's firm and fast conditions, winds and difficult pin positions and the tour making an active effort to curb some of the scoring. And none of that happened this weekend, which is fine. If I knew it would play this easy, I don't know how much I would have

uh, changed the players that I ended up betting in hindsight, maybe I wouldn't have bet Brooks, but I don't, I don't even know who I would have subbed him in for in that spot. Maybe Justin Thomas, I would have bet if, uh, over Brooks, if I knew it was going to be this easy, but I think regardless of whether this tournament was going to be won at 25 under or 15 under, uh,

All it took was one glance at this course and Bryson should jump off the page for absolutely everyone, which it did clearly. So I, like everyone else who spent one fraction of a second thinking about this course, bet and played Bryson DeChambeau immediately, literally before I got out of bed on Monday morning. And then...

And then on top of it, DraftKings hung a downright stupid number on him. And so you didn't even have to connect the dots with the course or do any research. You still probably ended up betting him because that was a ridiculous number on a player of that caliber at any course, let alone a course that felt like it was built for him.

So I mentioned in last week's episode that as soon as I completed my research, and this was Thursday of Northern Trust Week. So they hadn't even played the Northern Trust yet. And I joked that Bryson's got to win the BMW. Thought we had it there for a second. That was brutal. I've

I'm kind of immune to it now. I've had a lot of tough ones this year. Finau at Riviera, Zander at Phoenix, Henley at Wyndham, just to name a few. This one was pretty tough. I begrudgingly hedged on to Cantlay when he was 160. Enough for it to still be a very nice week, but...

Not enough for me to feel any form of satisfaction from this. I'm glad the playoff finally ended. I have no further thoughts on it at all. The playoff was the only part of this golf tournament that I watched, and it's been a really long week. So I really just wanted to record this and get it out at a reasonable hour. So, okay, let's turn the page.

So I wasn't going to do this episode. I wasn't going to do this episode because like I said, my buddy came into town, played 126 holes of golf in the last four days. I knew I was going to have zero time to do any research or so I thought, but I figured I still had to do the Roto Baller article, which ends up being the same research that I do for the podcast. So I found a way.

late nights to get all of my Eastlake stuff done over the past couple of days. So we're going to do this one. But what will probably end up happening is that I don't think I'm going to do a pick show this week for two reasons. Reason number one, me and Kenny Kim just keep playing schedule tag. He has a busy schedule and a day job. Tomorrow night, I have my huge fantasy football draft. And then

We were going to try and do Tuesday, but all day Tuesday, I'm flying cross country from New York to LA. So I think I'm just going to have Kenny Kim on for the Fortinet. And maybe I'll get Mark or Luke or John to do like a last second Eastlake pig show with me at some point Monday afternoon, but probably not.

Because, and this is a good segue to start talking about the tour championship. This is probably the least compelling betting and DraftKings week of the year. There's 30 guys in the field.

Two thirds of them do not have a legitimate chance to win. DraftKings is a mess this week. It's all just game theory because everyone's playing the same guys. So I thought it would probably be more meaningful to do this show and I'll probably take my Tuesday show off. And then next week,

I'm actually workshopping something. So there's an episode. There should be an episode during the off week. And then boom, we are right back into the fall swing. Shortest off season in sports. I love it. Okay. Tour championship.

Tour Championship. Here's everything you need to know about the Tour Championship because it's a little complicated if you are unaware. So starting in 2000, it became, I think 2000, it became the final event of the four tournament FedEx Cup playoffs with...

obviously only the final 30 in the FedExCup standings qualifying. From 2019 onward, the playoffs got shrunk to only three events. So this tournament is now in August. And since 2004, we have been going to Eastlake, which is an awesome course. I'll talk about Eastlake in a second. I want to go over the format first. So beginning in 2019, the

The tournament adopted a new format in order to ensure that the winner would also be the FedExCup champion. So the player with the most FedExCup points leading into the tournament starts at 10 under par. The player with the second most starts at 8 under, the third at 7 under par.

Four in the standing starts at six under fifth in the standing starts at five under players ranked six through 10 begin at minus four, 11 through 15 begin at minus three, 16 through 20 begin at minus two, 21 through 25 begin at minus one and 26 through 30 begin at even.

For purposes of world ranking points, only aggregate scores are taken into account. So last year, Xander had the best score through three rounds, but he started at minus four. I believe he was ranked seventh and DJ started at minus 10, which

You give an informed DJ a six-stroke head start, it's going to be tough. And there you go. DJ wins the tour championship. Rory McIlroy, however, in 2019, he actually did start in fifth place. And he overcame a five-shot deficit to win. So it's not impossible. But if you aren't starting at minus five or higher,

It's going to be tough. You really need the dude starting at 10, which is going to be Patrick Cantlay now, to kind of gag it, which is certainly possible. But like I said, it's going to be tough.

Dustin Johnson won here, as I mentioned, in 2020. He won at 21 under, which means that he shot 11 under on his own. The lowest score was Zander at 14 under that week. So I'm saying this in the context of what the winning score here has been, so you can kind of get a sense of how Eastlake tends to play in terms of difficulty. 2019, Rory McIlroy shot 13 under. That was the best over Zander Shoffley.

came in second. 2018 Tiger Woods shot minus 11.

2017, Xander Schauffele, one shot minus 12 over Justin Thomas. That's my dream exacto box for this week and every week. Xander likes this place. I'm not sure if you can tell. 2016, Rory McIlroy shot 12 under and won. 2015, Jordan Spieth shot nine under and won. 2014, Billy Horschel shot 11 under and won. 2013, Henrik Stenson shot 13 under. 2012, Brant Snedeker shot 10 under. 2011, Bill Haas shot eight under.

So what can we learn from that? Well, first of all, Eastlake is pretty hard. The winning score the last 10 years between 14 under and eight under. That's a pretty stern test for these guys. Tiger Woods shot 23 under here in 2007.

The next year, Vajegas won this tournament at seven under. So unless you're Tiger Woods, it's pretty tough. And player-wise, in terms of the types of guys that play well here, it's kind of a mixed bag. Like Snedeker, Haas, Stenson, Billy Horschel, Spieth, all really good putters and really

you know, pretty great iron players too, for the most part. I don't know if I'd call Horschel a great iron player, but none of those guys are particularly long off the tee, but they're all good iron players and good putters. Tiger was pretty good at both of those things too. Rory and Xander and DJ, on the other hand, who have also been awesome here, they are super dominant.

off the tee. I guess Andrew's a little bit of everything, but those guys are longer, they dominate off the tee, and they definitely have a little bit of a different skill set than a Snedeker or a Haas or a Stenson or a Horschel or a Spieth for that matter. So I know I said this with Liberty National, and I know it's kind of a cop-out, kind of, but I think there are just a lot of different ways to succeed here, which...

I will elaborate on fully once we dig into the course, but first let's take a quick break. Thrive Fantasy app. Come prop up on Thrive Fantasy this football season. Thrive Fantasy is a daily fantasy sports and e-sports app for player props. With Thrive, you can eliminate countless hours of research and focus only on the top tier athletes that have the biggest impact on the game you get to choose in

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app on the Apple store and use promo code Andy for a 100% instant match on your first deposit. Let's get back to the show. Okay. The course Eastlake golf club. It is about five miles East of downtown Atlanta. It opens in 1904 and it is the oldest golf course in the city of Atlanta home course of Bobby Jones.

It's a Donald Ross design, or rather it was designed by Tom Bendelow in 1908. And then Ross came in in 1913 and made changes. It has also been renovated by Reese Jones in both 1995 and 2008. It's a par 70 measuring 7,346 yards, Bermuda grass greens, Bermuda grass rough,

Zoysia fairways. Love me some Zoysia fairways. Greens are around 6,000 square feet on average. That's big, but not massive. And fairways average 28 yard wide, which is narrow, but not crazy narrow. They're about the same width on average as Sedgefield, another Donald Ross course that we just talked about for the window. So I've talked a lot about Donald Ross, especially, uh,

recently for the Wyndham, but he's also designed Detroit Golf Club, Pinehurst No. 2, Oak Hill, and as I previously alluded to, Sedgefield, amongst others. He's known for his undulating greens, which...

can really place an emphasis on approach play, actually, and three-putt avoidance. Because if you're putting from the wrong quadrant on a Ross green, you could be staring at bogey right in the face. The greens aren't at Eastlake. The greens aren't as menacing as they are at Pinehurst, for example. Three-putts here have actually been kind of right around tour average. So I don't necessarily think that the greens here are the...

hardest part of Eastlake per se, but they're still very fast. You do not want to be putting from above the hole here. And there are some very tight runoff areas and gnarly Bermuda grass rough around the greens as well. But what really stood out to me most was how hard it is or how hard it's been to hit the fairways here at Eastlake, despite them not being

incredibly narrow on paper. So driving accuracy here is 54% compared to the tour average of 62%. That's a wide margin. That's right up there as the hardest you are going to see on tour all season. So I think typically you will see this sometimes with Ross courses, both on the

they will be kind of turtle backed in nature and balls will kind of fall off if they aren't hit directly in the center. That's part of the reason these fairways are way harder than normal to hit. And this is,

This is from the great Steve Bamford, new listener and friend, Steve Bamford. I would highly encourage you to check out his previews every Monday. They are the best in the business, in my opinion. Honestly, one of the reasons this podcast exists, he really pioneered the research side of golf and golf courses and certainly helped me learn how to do all this stuff. Anyway, I digress. Nine of the last 12 winners have been in the top nine in fairways hit and

And I will get into what I think about off the tee very shortly when I talk about the stats. But just to put a bow on the course before we get into the next section, Eastlake is a fun team.

challenging, old school, traditional Donald Ross course with narrow fairways and nasty Bermuda rough and undulating greens. It's pretty unique on the PGA Tour, in my opinion. There are definitely a lot of comps you can make, Sedgefield for obviously the Donald Ross thing, but

It's a lot harder than that. There are some difficult Bermuda courses on the Florida swing like PGA National and Innisbrook that kind of have a little bit of the same flavor. I do think Innisbrook is pretty fair as a comp, but I think what separates...

East Lake is it's more traditional. It's more tree lined. The rough is a little more of a problem. So it's not just a pure iron slash second shot golf course like some of the other shorter Florida courses off the tee definitely matters. And it has a really nice.

blend of different golf holes. You have a couple of short par fours, a couple of medium length par fours, solid amount of long par fours, a short par three, a couple of medium length to long par threes, and a really, really long par three as well. So honestly, the more that I think about it, I kind of like TPC Southwind.

best as far as a comp because you have to be good off the tee there too. You got those same Zoysia fairways and same kind of gnarly Bermuda rough. So that's not bad. I think that's a, that's a solid one, but I digress. Here's the last thing I want to mention about the course before I go through the stats and the things I think you should be looking at. So one of the things that

that I really like to try and do, and I recommend to get kind of a good sense of what kind of the roadmap to success is at different courses is, I will go through past leaderboards to look at how the top 10 or top 20 guys got it done. What did they do that was good that propelled them to the top of the leaderboard? And here's what was interesting to me about Eastlake.

So in 2020, last year, every single one of the top 10 guys were really good off the tee. Dustin, JT, Xander, Rahm, Scheffler, all those guys were really, really good off the tee. And honestly, nothing really that special on approach or putting. JT came in second, losing 3.2 strokes putting. DJ won, losing strokes on approach. Xander actually had the best score of the entire tournament, and he lost strokes on approach.

So you look at that leaderboard and say, okay, off the tee is absolutely what we have to focus on here. But then you look at 2019, it's a totally different story. Rory, Xander, Brooks, Adam Scott, they were all dominant on approach. Nine of the top 10 players also gained strokes around the green. So like short game kind of popped that year. Whereas

half of the top 12 players in 2019 lost strokes off the tee. And then you go to 2018 and it's like, oh, this place is, it's just a total iron fast where every single one of the top 10 gained on approach off the tee, not so much around the green, not so much in putting really not so much either. The reason I bring all of this up

is to illustrate my earlier point. I think there are a ton of different ways to get it done at Eastlake, which is what you want in a golf course, right? That is the sign of a really good course where clearly there are a bunch of avenues and it doesn't necessarily cater to one specific skill set. I think there are some things that are way more important than others this week, but

Where last week where I was like, I think you should just load up on off the tee and more specifically distance. This week, I do think there is a clear number one most important thing at Eastlake, but not overwhelmingly so to the point where you just want to take players that are good at that thing. I think you want to look more for kind of a balanced and well-rounded skill set. Okay, let's run through the stats.

Let's start with off the tee because I've already alluded to it a bunch. By the way, I did this last week.

And I think it's going to be a better way of doing this going forward just to try and get more organized. But I think I'm going to go through the four major categories like off the tee approach around the green and putting and talk about how important I think each one is and talk about the ancillary statistics related to them together. So it's a lot more organized and,

and I can talk about all the off the tee stuff at once. And then I can move on to the approach stuff and the proximity stuff and talk about those together and so on and so forth. So I'm not just completely all over the place telling you guys about a bunch of random numbers in no particular order. I think that will work better. Okay. So off the tee. So the most

I think it's the most important thing, as I alluded to, if I had to pick one. If there was a gun to my head and you told me you have to pick the number one most important thing at Eastlake, I would probably say driving accuracy. I think off the tee, accuracy off the tee,

is really important here for a couple of reasons. So I weighed a combination of strokes gained off the tee and added fairways gained at a little over 25%. And here's why, as I mentioned,

It's really hard to hit these fairways. 54% is really low, and it's not like there isn't a penalty for missing them. You don't want to be in the Bermuda grass rough. Every single player will tell you that in their quote. So it's not like a bombing gouge situation where you have narrow fairways, and it actually kind of like last week, and it plays into the bomber's hands because they

You can get out of the rough. This Bermuda grass rough is, it's not ideal. It's not a situation where you can just bomb away and not try and hit these fairways. You really do want to be in these fairways. And I think that is because,

Bermuda grass rough. Most players will tell you that they actually think Bermuda rough is tougher than Kentucky or some of the rough that you see in the Northeast because there's just a lot more guesswork involved and randomness involved. So I'm really looking for guys that hit a ton of fairways and generally gain off the tee.

I'll give one more shout to my pal Steve Bamford for this one. Here's how the last 10 winners have ranked in strokes gained off the tee that week. DJ was fourth, Rory first, Tiger sixth, Xander first, Rory first, Spieth third, Horschel seventh, Stenson sixteenth, Snedeker fifth.

So I think off the tee is really important here. I'm not really concerned with distance. As I mentioned, I mean, distance never hurts, but I really think accuracy is what you want to be honing in on, which is why I added fairways gained and have put a pretty heavy weight for me on off the tee this week compared to what I normally do. That was just the one consistent through line I found from all of the quotes I read is every single player said,

I'm not going to read you all the quotes. Go check out Steve Bamford's article from 2020, and he'll probably do the same one this year with a lot of the same quotes. Every single player said some form of, you got to hit the fairway, you got to hit the fairway, you got to hit the fairway. So I think that's huge. I think off the tee and hitting the fairway is really, really important at Eastlake. Approach. I still do have all of my approach stuff

kind of right up there with off the tee. They're neck and neck there. It's hard to find a course, honestly, in my opinion, from all, from all of the numbers that I kind of look at where you can definitively say that off the tee is more important than approach. It's just, that is, I don't, that's very rare, but Eastlake is, is one of the closer ones where, where I do, I do feel that strongly about off the tee, but I,

Listen, I've been saying it's a ball striker's course. Every course is a ball striker's course, but there are levels to it. And you look at the top 10 finishers and they've all still averaged slightly more strokes on approach than off the tee. And as I've mentioned with any Donald Ross course, approach is always really important because if you're in the wrong quadrant of these greens, you are in trouble. And if you miss the green here,

scrambling percentage is lower here too than tour average greens, greens and regulation percentage as well, lower than tour average. So I want guys that pound greens.

I think greens and regulation gained is a good stat to look at. I want accurate approach players. And to be honest, it's hard to kind of decipher slash specify what are the most important proximity distances here. I think it's pretty evenly spread out just looking through the holes. But

They don't have proximity distances here on Fantasy National for Eastlake for some reason. So as a way to kind of substitute more of the proximity stuff that I would usually look at, I'm just adding more greens and regulation gain because I just think that I want to be able to identify the most accurate iron players and guys who pound greens. It's just, it's really important here. And this is the type of course that,

in my opinion, where ball striking is just really, really important. It's not a birdie fest. It's not a putting contest. It's not easy. It's harder to scrape by here by just sinking a ton of putts. That just hasn't been the formula from what we've seen at Eastlake yet, or any course that is as difficult as Eastlake for the most part. You got to be on point with the irons. And if there was one proximity distance that...

I think you probably would maybe want to be overweight on. It would be 200 yards plus. I did look at that a little bit just because the par threes measure 204, 237, 220 yards.

Both par fives are reachable. There's a 477 yard par four, a 486 yard par four and a 460, a 461, a 521 yard par four and a 460, another 462 par four. So compared to tour average, uh,

You're probably getting more long iron approaches here. 7,400 yards for a par 70 is a lot. Eastlake is pretty long. It's one of the longest par 70s that we've seen all season. So if you want to hone in on approach even more, I would probably prefer really good long iron players. Okay, around the green. Always, always, always important on a more difficult course where guys are going to be missing green. Short game here.

I don't think it's incredibly relevant, but I don't think it's one of those weeks either when it's a birdie fest and around the green play is just completely meaningless. I just haven't seen that from the numbers. Like I mentioned, I think you got to have a really well-rounded game here. Plus that Bermuda grass rough around the greens, as I mentioned, it's never fun. And scrambling percentage is bad.

below tour average here for a reason. Here's a quote from Rory. It's the only quote I'll do. You don't hit fairways, and with this Bermuda rough, you have no control of your golf ball. You're sort of guessing whether it's going to come out soft. Puts even more credence to what I was talking about with hitting the fairway. So you need your scrambling boots on this week.

According to Rory, you need your scrambling boots on. I like that. So yeah, I'm going to look at scrambling just like I do anytime we have a tougher course. And I think the only other supplemental stat I would look at, or I think is worth looking at is bogey avoidance. I just think that

Scrambling and bogey avoidance, they are very good at helping me identify players who are really good at manufacturing scores on more difficult courses, which is what I'm kind of looking for. I'm not really looking at sand saves, but I think sand saves is fine too. There's definitely some buggers here. And then putting.

definitely strokes game putting on Bermuda. These are fast undulating Bermuda greens. You don't want to be putting from above the hole. So strokes game putting Bermuda. I like it. All right.

So I put all of this stuff together, you know, driving accuracy and greens and regulation gained and fairway and bogey avoidance and all the stuff that I think is going to be really important here. And here are the top 10 guys that spit out over the last 36 rounds. Now, keep in mind, these aren't accounting for the numbers from the BMW and it's only 30 players in the field anyway.

But John Rahm, number one, Louis Oosthuizen, number two, Abraham Anser, number three, Colin Morikawa, number four, Victor Hovland, number five, Patrick Cantlay, number six, Daniel Berger, number seven, Justin Thomas, number eight, Corey Connors, number nine, Jordan Spieth, number 10. No real huge shocks there. Rahm is kind of just operating statistically, at least on a different level right now. We've had...

three relatively different courses for the FedExCup playoffs, three relatively different models for me as well. And he has been the number one guy for me all three weeks, which is a pretty scary proposition. But I'm really not surprised that

to see answer up there. I'm really not surprised to see Morikawa up there. I'm, I'm really not surprised to see Corey Connors up there. I'm, I'm really not surprised to see Cantlay, Berger, or, or Louie up there as well. All of those guys hit a ton of fairways and a ton of greens. And for that reason, they don't make a lot of bogeys either. And they all tend to play really well on par 70 courses, et cetera, all that stuff.

But I also, I ran a second, a separate one just to kind of try and identify and single out good Bermuda putters and guys who've played well at Eastlake and

a little bit of TPC Southwind, some Innisbrook, and some Sedgefield. I just wanted to identify the players that have already experienced success on Bermuda at Eastlake, at other difficult Bermuda par 70 courses. So I kind of like comparing between all my course history and comp course stuff with just the pure number stuff and kind of trying to cross-reference to see what players kind of fit the mold the best and

And the players that rated out the best for me there were number one, Billy Horschel.

Number two, Jordan Spieth. Number three, Sam Burns, Mr. Bermuda. He's one of Dennis Brooke. Number four, Dustin Johnson. Number five, Xander Shoffley, King of Eastlake, only player in the field, averaging over two strokes per round at Eastlake. Harris English, number six. Number seven, Abraham Anser. Number eight, Louis Oosthuizen. Number nine, Bryson DeChambeau. Number 10, Rory McIlroy.

So really the guys that were coming up for the most part for me were Spieth, Answer, and Louie.

were actually the only guys to be in the top third of every model that I ran. So that's interesting to keep in mind. Spieth, Anser, and Louis. I never really bet any of those guys. So we'll see where I end up. Again, similar to last week, it's hard to have any early leans. This golf tournament just ended, the BMW, and I really want to get this podcast up so

So I haven't had time to go through all of the strokes gained data from the BNW. And as you guys know, I like having all that data at my disposal before I make any strong commitments to anyone. But I can tell you, like I did last week with, I think the guys I gave out were Bryson, Hovland, and Casey. Those were the three players I think I identified last week that were showing up everywhere for me.

Spieth, Anser, and Louis are definitely showing up a lot. But we'll see. This is so dependent on the staggered scoring and the odds and all of that. I looked very briefly at the numbers from the BMW during the playoff.

And I think I'll probably end up betting Justin Thomas, who will be starting at four under. He's probably too far back. But if I can get a good number on him, I like how he's trending statistically. So that is probably a guy that I'm leaning towards right off the bat. But I will...

I will dig far more into it as the week goes on. I will fully bet this tournament just like it's any other tournament. I don't know if I'm going to play DraftKings. I'm going to write about DraftKings, though, for Rotoballer. I already have that article almost finished up, and you can find that tomorrow morning. So,

That will do it for me. Let's get out of here. It's been a long week. Special thanks to Roto Baller. Special thanks to Thrive Fantasy. You can follow me on Twitter at ADPWaxSports. And don't forget to follow Inside Golf Pod on Twitter as well. That's InsideGolf underscore pod. Stay tuned for my upcoming schedule. I don't know where I'll be, but I will keep you all posted on Twitter and

And I'll catch you next time.

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