The Ryder Cup with Steve Bamford
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All right, it is Ryder Cup week and I have Steve Bamford of the Golf Betting System, the Golf Betting System podcast, joining me for a special Ryder Cup discussion. This was an absolute blast for me. Steve is one of the largest reasons why this podcast exists and a real bucket list guest for me. So I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did. We break down the course, we talk about pairings, we talk about the prop markets, we give our predictions.

Everything you need to know about the Ryder Cup, it is all here. But before we get to my conversation with Steve, let's talk about Roto Ballers NFL Premium Pass. Win big in 2021 with Roto Ballers NFL Premium Pass. Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league? Well, Roto Ballers NFL Premium Pass includes draft kit rankings, drafts,

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All right. I'm being joined by the great Steve Bamford this morning of the Golf Betting System, the Golf Betting System podcast. He's Bamford Golf on Twitter. Steve, we were just talking a little bit offline about how you were one of the founding fathers of this podcast, whether you knew it or not. So I am so excited for you to join me this week on Ryder Cup Week. How's it going, my friend? It's brilliant.

Ride a cup weight. You just can't beat it, can you? It's just got that extra edge to it. Am I in your Mount Rushmore then? Oh, 100%. I would say you, for me, in terms of inspiration of there's actually some merit in maybe me quitting my job and trying to do this, I would put you, you, Mayo, and Gaiman on the, Rick Gaiman on the Mount Rushmore.

That's high esteem. Very high esteem.

I know. And I've actually, I've gotten to become close with Pat and, and Rick over the past couple of months. So you are the final check Mark for me. I've been joking with our mutual friend Nagels. And I told him, I said, I said, Steve Bamford is currently my white whale for the podcast. I've gotten on literally every single other person that,

that I wanted to get on in this industry on the podcast, except Steve Bamford. Actually, you know what? I've just developed a recent friendship with Ben Coley and he hasn't come on yet, but you two tapping into the European side of it has been, the UK side of it has been what I have, kind of what I've been hoping for a little bit because I think, I love the way that you guys approach things. We have, we,

Clearly, you're United States-focused. Pat's up in Canada. I know that you've had Jeff Feinberg on here as well. Of course. I kind of group Pat and Jeff together. Yeah. I kind of group Jeff and Pat together, of course. They are. They're like the two amigos. Over here in the UK, we have a thriving betting market. Golf's probably third, fourth highest.

sport when it comes to turnover of golf bets. It's very, very popular. We have an ever-growing DraftKings playership over here as well. All of the content that you guys pull together over in the United States and North America, we listen to it in ever-growing amounts over here. It's a cross-Atlantic situation. And it's an absolute pleasure to be on the show.

Okay, I appreciate that very much. And what you kind of just said dovetails into the first question that I'm really curious to ask you about. Just to set the stage a little bit, to me, this is a top five weekend of the year. It's right up there with the majors. I think I enjoy this more than I enjoy the players. And this specific year, not just because I'm going, I feel like there's a little bit more buzz going

around this Ryder Cup now. Now, I'm not sure whether that's because it's been three years that we've had to wait instead of two. I'm not sure if it's because of some of the drama that is surrounding the U.S. side regarding the Brooks and Bryson thing and the Bryson Long Drive thing and Brooks' big interview with Golf Digest. I'm sure we can touch on all of those things, Steve. But the first thing I wanted to ask you is,

First of all, what's your relationship to the Ryder Cup over the years? What is kind of how meaningful is this event to you? And then as a follow-up question, what is the vibe in England this week? How are people feeling about the team? Are they optimistic? Are they confident? What's kind of the buzz where you are and how do you feel specifically about the Ryder Cup as an event?

I think the Ryder Cup as a sporting event has to be up there with the biggest events in sport globally.

I think it's an event from a golfing perspective that actually attracts non-golf viewers. Completely agree. I'll give you an example. My father is 80 years of age. He would never watch any golf tournament at all, but I'll often go around there after the Ryder Cup and my mother will say to me, oh, your dad was watching the Ryder Cup all three days. I couldn't drag him away from the TV. It's that kind of event, isn't it?

um it's the crowd there's the history behind it and of course what we what we've had in you know recent renewals a very uk word renewal um clearly the competitive side of things where it used to be dominated by america and then we went through the iterations of europe getting closer and eventually winning

and then there's been this kind of, I won't say you, it's been a lot tighter and there's been almost no limit of Euro domination of late. Yes. I just think that makes it even bigger over here. From a betting perspective, personally, I find it difficult, you know, when we're trying to find the winner in a 156-man field like we had at the Fortinet last week. That, to me, being kind of...

in the industry since 2009 and it's always, you know, basically we focus on tournament straight betting. That to me is my bread and butter but Ryder Cup,

if you're going to be lumping on america this week i know that i know that feinberg's mentioned that he's going to try and get us he's going to try and make as much money out of the team usa for the rider cup and making a profit from it to take him to his trip to las vegas that's quite deep that's that's deep stakes really and that kind of now i prefer 33 to 1 rather than 2 to 1 on it has to be said but

There are kind of elements to it that you can get looking to. There's the top points combined markets, the top Euro, top American markets. Maybe you could look at some of the rookie markets. There are ways and means. I never get into score betting. That to me doesn't attract so far too technical. From a confidence perspective over here in the UK and Europe, I wouldn't say we're as confident as we have been in the past.

I think it's becoming ever more obvious that the advantage of playing at home is so big. Yes. That was clearly brought home at the Gulf National in 2018, which was set up to be as technical, as tough, as non-American as possible. So that actually hitting fairways and hitting greens was a real priority, especially hitting the fairway.

I don't think it's going to be anything like that this week. Although there are some, I know we're going to talk about the course, there are some interesting tweaks. Now whether Kerry Hay of the PGA of America has decided, because I've seen some interviews wherein we said, well, some captains let me set the course up, other captains tell me exactly what they want. So what camp Steve Strick is in, not sure. We'll probably find out post-event. But in terms of confidence, no.

I wouldn't say there's a confidence over here that we will win this. However, I do think in terms of the odds and looking potentially at the weather forecast, I think some of the elements will soon be Europeans coming up. I agree with what you just said. I think that...

I think that obviously the U S has a talent advantage on paper. That is, that is not very disputable, but always. Um, and even you could probably make the argument that this year, most or more so than previous years, that it is a particularly strong United States team in terms of talent. Now, not all of those players on the team are coming in playing their best golf. There's obviously pretty large concerns, uh,

uh around Colin Morikawa and whether he's still uh battling that lingering injury that he suffered at the Olympics Brooks Koepka obviously had a it was a pretty gnarly wrist injury I remember watching that live at at Eastlake and listen for him to withdraw from that event like they give out a lot of money for finishing 20th at Eastlake so so for him to withdraw out from that event I

I think that was pretty significant. Obviously, Dustin Johnson hasn't been playing his best golf recently. Scotty Scheffler had an underwhelming playoffs. Harris English has kind of cooled a little bit as well. So, you know, I think what you kind of mentioned a little bit about the

price and from a gambling perspective, it's a little tricky because I personally think that I don't want to say that the US side is unbettable and I won't end up getting there by the week, but it does kind of seem to me like more of the value is on the European side. And that price for the US, it still feels high to me.

It still feels a little bit just like we are penciling these guys in because of the talent advantage. And I'll kind of use this as a segue to allow you to start talking about the course a little bit with the weather. When I look at Whistling Straights on paper, I do believe that there is an advantage to the US side, but I don't know if it's as great as people want to make it.

Yeah, I personally think the price, there's too much of a gap. I've already backed Team Europe. I backed them with my cohort of the Golf Betting System podcast, Barry O'Hanram. We backed them on Saturday morning. We were just having a Skype chat. We got on at 9 to 4, which we thought was the top of the market in terms of price.

I know Barry, he backed it with fixed odds. He's also had a proportion on over here, Betfair Exchange, which is where effectively you can back and lay money over here without using a bookmaker and it's just a commission. So you can actually trade on there as well. So you can hedge out. Because what you tend to see and what this could very much happen is, say...

say the morning session on Friday, Europe win 3-1, or it's 2.5, 1.5, all of a sudden these prices flip very quickly. Yes. So you could actually see that the Americans then are then actually, you know, Europe go odds on and the price on the Americans gets deeper. Let's talk about the... So, yeah, so I mean, I'll state right here, right now, I'm on board Team Europe at 9-4 over here, which is just a snitch over 2-1.

The course is interesting. It's the straights course, whistling straights course, Kola Vids concept. Now, Pete Dye Design, so many courses on the PGA Tour now and in the majors, Pete Dye Design. I know. It's frightening, really. Now, I categorize this as coastal. Of course, you know, people could throw a load of abuse at me, I'll see, you know. But when you actually look at it, you know, it's on Lake Michigan, is it? Did you know it's the largest lake by area in one single country?

Amazing, but true. It's amazing what you can find on Wikipedia. It's clearly virtually like the sea, isn't it? It's a huge, huge body of water. So let's bear that in mind. Pete Dye also designed it as a coastal golf course. So the way, the direction of the holes, it plays best when there is wind as a feature, right? First point of note, they're playing this as Par 71 this week.

Now, the PGA Championship that they played in 2015 at Jason Day one, that was played as a par 72. They've knocked 100 yards off the golf course as well. So they're actually playing this, as per the Ryder Cup website, as a 7,390-yard par 71. So we're looking now at three par fives rather than four. And the hole that they've changed is the 11th.

which the pga plays a 563 yard par five it's playing as a 513 yard par four so stretching powerful they're just interesting elements i know for a fact i watched them though laying up um videos and um they've been doing so i love those guys it's fantastic stuff

And that golf course can play up to 7.7, is it? Or 7.8 to the tips? Almost 7,800 yards when it's a par 72, yeah. So clearly, the decision has been made, right? We're not playing it to the tips, which I thought probably suit the Americans anyway. We're going to knock 400 yards off the golf course and play it as a par 71. Now, whether that's because...

They've looked at the landing areas and that works well in terms of having the broadest landing areas for the Americans. It's already been placed out there that the rough length for the 2015 PGA was four to six inches. Well, this time around, it's being quoted as two and a half to four inches, which you would expect, which you would expect, wouldn't you? So, you know, the rough's going to be down.

But I just think they're interesting dynamics, what's clearly being done with the course. Scoring average in 2010 here when Kyma won, 72.92%.

So that was just almost a stroke over par on the average. Scoring average in 2015 when Jason Bay won 72.76, which was just three courses of a stroke over par, which for a major championship course is not that stretching. We've had US Opens and the like and PGA Championships playing two, two and a half, three strokes over par. I don't think it's an owner. It's not an onerous course effectively.

It's gettable. And of course it's a Ryder Cup. We want to see birdies, don't we? We want to see eagles. We want to see birdies. And so that's kind of what they've done to the course in terms of the actual agronomy of the golf course.

We're looking at fairways which are a bent grass mix with fine fescue and poana. The rough is fine fescue and as I said, it's looking at being two and a half to four inches long, which isn't overly taxing. The greens are on average seven and a half thousand square feet. So they're pretty large greens and they feature Providence bent grass.

So no quoted Poana in the actual green surfaces themselves. It's a peat dye design. It's stretching. There's only one hole that actually features water in play. So not a lot of water in play, bearing in mind... That first kind of strange par five called Snake, I remember. I think it's like six or something like that is the one with water. Masses and masses of long fescue, masses and masses of bunkers, masses and masses of these...

What do you call them? These sand traps, which aren't bunkers. And, you know, Dustin Johnson clearly got called out in 2010. But yes, it's a visually intimidating golf course. But when you read the player quotes from 2010, 2015, it is very much a typical golf.

United States golf course where you've got to attack an area. There's not really any links element to it at all. Okay. So you touched on many things that I wanted to do a little bit of a follow-up on. The first thing that you mentioned is the length of the course. Yeah. I think leading into this, I was...

I kind of assumed that it would play the seven par 72, 7,800 yards. The fact that it is a, now a par 71 playing closer to 7,400 yards, I've kind of gone back and forth on whether I need to

kind of reconsider why they decided to do that and if I need to kind of reconsider how much I think that driving distance and length off the tee kind of matters on this course because that is kind of the huge prevailing narrative that you're going to hear this week. If you do the, I don't know if you're familiar at all with data golf, but they do kind of have this course fit tool where it kind of compares a

to other PGA Tour courses. And you look at whistling straights and in terms of relative importance to driving accuracy and iron play and around the green play, driving distance at whistling straight actually completely sticks out as something that is incredibly important. Now, that's not to say that shorter hitters can't compete.

Pete here, just a quick scan over the leaderboards from the 2004, 2010, and 2015 PGA. And you'll see that many players close to the top of the leaderboard were not particularly bombers off the tee by any means, but it does seem like there is a large advantage if you are long off the tee at whistling straights. I think what's kind of

interesting about that is do you still feel that way that distance is going to be very important here even though it's playing as a par 71 now and is close to 400 yards shorter because again to bring up the no laying up guys again I think they made a pretty good point when they said it still is distance still matters here a ton because the way that whistling straights is set up now is the

It's a lot of very long holes and a lot of very short holes. So there are over six par fours, I believe, that are over 450 yards, and I think three or four of them that are over 500. And then they've moved the tee up a little bit on some of the par fours to make them drivable. So to me, and I'm curious to get your take on this, that almost favors distance even more than if it was set up

at 7,800 yards just based on the way these holes are being set up because you look at some of the holes that normally they would be a 390-yard par 4, and now they're a 330 or a 340-yard par 4. And now a player like Bryson can drive that hole, whereas a shorter player might have kind of an awkward 50-yard pitch shot. So to me, it was Steve Stricker playing

What he did sneakily by shortening the course almost even played more into longer hitters' hands. Does that make sense, what I'm getting at there? I think that's the play, isn't it? It's actually shortening some of these holes so that they're virtually drivable. And in the cases of a DeChambeau or DJ, probably are drivable.

I think that's the game plan, isn't it? I mean, you've just got to look at the 2010 and 2015 leaderboards here. I know clearly Martin Keimer isn't the longest driver on the planet, but what Martin Keimer in his pomp and prime was, was long enough and straight enough. So excellent total driver, excellent strokes going off the tee driver.

But not pure power. But Bubba Watson was second in 2010. Rory McIlroy in the top three. Clearly DJ was up there in fifth. Yes, there were Zach Johnsons, there were Jason Duffners.

But to me, I mean, Jason Day was also in the top 10, big, big hitter. You then go to 2015, Jason Day clearly was the winner and won by a margin. But Justin Rose was up there. Brooks Koepka was up there. Back in 2015, Koepka was just making himself, you know, hitting kind of the world of gold. Not many people knew too much about Brooks back in 2015.

Dustin Johnson was up there. So there's some big, big – Tony Finau, first ever top ten at a major. Big hitters. I genuinely think it's a bomber's golf course. And that kind of comes through in what we saw in that no-laying-up presentation. It just comes through looking at the numbers. And as you say, when you've got par fours, I think the closing par four is over 500 yards. If you can get your drive 350 –

a 360, you're coming in with a much shorter club than say an Ian Poulter would. I was going to say Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he's sneakily long these days. But yes, I think power is a real value to the Americans. They clearly will have that within their statistical matrix as one of their advantages off the team.

And that's clearly what was reined in at the Golf National back in 2018. Make a golf course as tight, the rough as penal as possible, so that actually driving distance was, in a way, a negative at the Golf National in 2018. I think this, you know, in 2021 at Whisking Straits, I think it will be an advantage to quite a degree in those terms. The other thing we've got to bear in mind as well, Andy, is the weather. Yes.

Now, I would assume, not that I've ever been to Wisconsin and I've never been there in the fall. Over here, we call the fall the autumn. But I'm just looking. I always use Windfinder as one of my really key weather indicators. And I'm at the local weather centre to the golf course at Winston Straits.

And they're saying that Friday, it's going to be 20 degrees Celsius with 68 Fahrenheit. There could be 20 to 30 mile an hour winds in the morning. And that was still 15 to 20 in the afternoon. So that doesn't, you know, for the northern United States, I hope, put it this way, what days are you going?

I'll be there every day. I would wrap up with some layers, Andy. There's your my fatherly advice to you. Saturday, 17 degrees Celsius looks like it's going to be the...

the peak in the afternoon, that's 63 degrees Fahrenheit, up to 20 mile an hour gusts in the morning, slightly less in the afternoon. And on Sunday, 16 degrees Celsius, 61 Fahrenheit, gusting 15 miles an hour. Now, for me sitting over here just outside London in the UK,

They see numbers that you don't typically get clearly in the summer or even in Florida, the Florida swing. That's particularly cold. Now, that to me feels very Northern European type weather, especially throw in some gusting winds. I mean, it's early, it's Monday over here, so we know...

In a way, you can't gauge anything until the day before, but you get a view. If that stays true, that to me is a real advantage to the European team, those weather conditions.

I think you're right. Can you speak on that a little bit more? I'm just really curious because I think this is very important. A piece that we may be underrating by a lot of us kind of penciling the U.S. side in is that, you know, I do think that...

Steve Stricker is very aware of what happened in Paris. And I was reading a Davis Love quote the other day about how, you know, we got bent over a barrel in Paris. We were not prepared whatsoever. They really thought about the course setup and we didn't consider all of those factors. I mean, there were all these, you know,

Fleetwood had won at that course on the European tour. Molinari had finished runner up like three times at that course. And it's not a coincidence that Molinari ended up going five and O in those matches and Fleetwood ended up going four and one. I think the U S is very cognizant this year of how they can kind of flip the script on that and really play to the course. And I think that, uh,

It really bears true in Steve Stricker's selections. I listened to that long press conference that he did with the captain's picks, and he really thought about it this time, and he relied on analytics a little bit more than I think he usually does or the U.S. side usually does. That's another huge misconception about the European side is people think that the European side, they just pick best.

based on chemistry. The European side, they're very reliant on analytics and very thoughtful about course fit and selecting the best players that they have available, not just locker room guys, like the best players that they have available for that course. I think the US is improving at that.

And like I said, becoming a little bit more cognizant. But the one thing that they can't really control is the weather. And so if we have this course playing a little bit more like a Lynx course, a little bit windier than a player like a Tyrell Hatton, who in completely calm conditions plays.

is not maybe the best fit, you would think, for whistling straights. But Hatton is a player that's had tremendous amount of success on links courses. And there are a number of those European players like Hatton, like a Fitzpatrick, that they tend to thrive more in Europe.

difficult conditions as opposed to easier conditions. So would you say that the harder the course plays, would you agree with that sentiment that the more difficult it plays and the windier it gets, the more that actually plays into the Europeans hands and kind of just to segue into start us start talking about some of the players,

Who on the European side are you kind of looking at? Not necessarily from a betting perspective, but in terms of players that you think on the European side do kind of fit whistling straights maybe a little bit better than we would expect.

I definitely think, and Barry off the podcast, in fact, Paul, all three of us, and we're recording the podcast tomorrow morning, so that'll be out tomorrow, Tuesday. We're very on point in terms of weather. And we're pretty sure that the more technical as we classify it, the nastier the weather,

The lower, the higher the scoring, so, you know, less birdies, less eagles, the more that it suits the European. And even, I mean, let's use another Pete's Dye course as an example, shall we? Back in May, not many people thought that Phil Mickelson would win the PGA Championship. Now, that was a Pete Dye design. It was coastal. It was windy. It wasn't crazily windy, but it was 15 to 20 throughout.

and the way the course sets up you know the way that pete died designed that course the fact that everything coming back from 12 was into the wind it just stretched the world's best and just look at the leaderboard nicholson won it and then you had the likes of crazy lean board really second tied second brooks kekka tied fourth padre harrington shane lowry paul casey

There's a European feel for you. Tied eighth, Justin Rose, John Rahm. We also had up there Scotty Scheffler, Colin Morikawa. So I'm reading from that top, those top eight or top ten finishes, if you like. They were ties for eight, but...

Kevin Strelman, Ricky Fowler, they have a mate team. Tony Finau, Scotty Scheffler, Will Zalatouris, Colin Murrell-Cott. So there was only four of the PGA, of the Ryder Cup team, Team America, that got into the paying places, if you like, or towards the head of the leaderboard of that PGA Championship. On a Pete Dyer design, a long golf course in windy conditions. I know that the agronomy was completely different with the past or whatever. But it just shows you.

If that course plays more difficult, and that's one thing that Steve Stricker and the PGA of America and the organisers haven't got control of the weather. Every time I look at that, I'm looking at it right now on my screen, it's still saying that at one o'clock on Friday, that's going to be gusting 30 miles an hour.

There's no thunderstorms or boomers in the forecast. They're out to play. That, to me, is advantage Europe. It just has to be. Saturday, yeah, gusting up to 20 in the morning. But it's the temperatures as well. These are cold temperatures.

I mean, apparently when it starts at seven o'clock on Saturday, it's going to be eight degrees Celsius and it's still going to be 13, 15 degrees Celsius. So low 60s Fahrenheit, you know, late on in the morning on Saturday. So, yeah, that to me, and that to me, again, I can see why over here people are nibbling on things.

the Europe price because I think as if this weather forecast and the feel for the golf course, the feel for the weather, there's going to be wind in play.

That to me, again, just brings that gap slightly down between the Americans and the Europeans because that kind of golf, you've mentioned it, Till Hatton, the one when he had in the United States was at Bay Hill in those very, very windy. Yep, firm fast, yes. You got it. Fitzpatrick, the same. Also plays great at Bay Hill. Shane Lauer is another great example, isn't he? 2019 Open champion.

The worse those conditions get, the windier it gets, that's going to suit Shane Lowry down to the ground. Paul Casey, Paul Casey's more than absent in those kind of conditions. So, yeah, I genuinely think that helps Team Europe if that weather comes to fruition.

Are you looking at all at the kind of the top European points score and those kind of markets? Are you looking to get into that? And if so, who are some of the players that you are looking at on, well, we can either say the European or the US side, let's talk about

both. I think my thought with the European team is I actually think that in terms of elite talent at the very top with Rory, Rahm, and Hovland, their top three is right up there with the Americans' top three. If anything, you could make the argument even better based on the form that John Rahm is in.

Do you feel, and I think the biggest advantage that the US side is when it comes to depth. I think the back end of the US team is a lot stronger than the back end of the European team. But I think the thing that people sometimes forget about the Ryder Cup is, and Europe's not afraid to do this, they'll play guys only twice. If they want to hide someone, they'll be happy to hide someone. There's no rules or stipulations that you have to use all players. Have you thought at all about

Strategy-wise, what the Europeans are going to do, how often they're going to... Do you see any other players outside of Rahm and Rory playing five matches? Do you think that there is one or two players that may be utilized a little bit more than we would expect?

What are you kind of thinking in terms of how Padraig is going to trot out this European side and how that could affect potentials in the betting markets in terms of top point score and those kind of offerings? I think a situation...

I don't think Padraig Harrington will shy away from picking wild cards if he thinks that they're A, in the right level of form and B, the golf course and the conditions suit.

I'm looking historically at numbers here. Sergio Garcia across his nine Ryder Cups to this point, unbelievable but true. He's got a winning, by the way, he's got a win-loss record of six wins, three losses on the Ryder Cup. Phenomenal numbers indeed. If you actually look at the average amount of games that he's played across those nine matches, it averages out just over four and a half matches per Ryder Cup.

uh rory mcelroy averages out of 4.8 i think there was just one where they played him in four rather than five so you're guaranteed yeah the way it's going to pan out john rahm and mcelroy they're going to be played five times aren't they and when it comes to these markets when it comes to

top American, top European. I always like the top combined scorer as well. So let's lump all the players in together and we'll try and work out who's going to be top point scorer across the week. The most important thing here is to, you know, who's going to play five matches? And you can kind of work out clearly who's going to play five matches. You want players that are going to be selected for Thursday morning. Sorry, Friday morning. That, you know, that's obvious. So Friday morning,

Who's going to be in those teams, those four teams on each side? Now, in my mind, Poulter's not likely to get a start in the morning, in my opinion. But McElroy, yes. Rahm, yes. You could see a situation where they play Sergio. I think they'll definitely play Hovland. But I genuinely think, and I think there's value in Shane Lowry. I do think that.

Especially if these wind conditions and the temperature are going to be as the early forecasts are saying. I'm seeing him in the European top scorer market at 12-1. I think there's worse bets than that with Shane Lowry.

I don't see Lowry being a wild card that they hide away. I just don't see it. I really don't see it. The other thing, I know that you're aware of this, Andy. I keep strokes, gained numbers, my own analysis, and I keep it short. I keep it over eight weeks just to see who's peaking, who isn't peaking with recent form. And if you actually look in my analysis at...

Strokes gain total, so it's strokes gain current form. This goes back to the Olympics effectively and includes the Olympics. Shane Lowry

across the 24 players this week, sits in seventh place for strokes gained total in my analysis. And he also sits in the top eight for strokes gained tee to green. So I think the guy's in good nick. And I think the conditions and the course could suit him. So he's 12 to one right now in the top European point scorer market.

I'll also look at the top combined point scorer market. You can find Shane Lowry. These are clearly UK prices that I'm quoting. He's available at 25 to 1, which to me is a good price. Interestingly enough as well, this is the kind of information I know that you love, Andy. Hopefully the listeners like it. If you go top combined point scorer over the last three Ryder Cups, so I'm talking Justin Rose in 2014.

I'm talking Thomas Peters of all people in 2016. He's with Rory every time. Yeah. Unbelievable. And Francesco, who was a wild card, of course, Peters, I believe. Francesco Molinari, 2018.

The odds of those three winners were 12-1 for Rose, 50-0-1 for Thomas Peters and Francesco Molinari on a golf course that was creative for him and Tommy Fleetwood at the Golf National was a 22-1 shot to win that top point scorer market combined. It seems to be a little bit of a graveyard for the favourites and for the short prices.

Ian Poulter also in 2012 at Medina, the miracle of Medina, he was top combined point scorer and I can guarantee you he was about 20 to 1 that particular week as well. So 20 to 1, 12 to 1, 50 to 1, 22 to 1. That points me in the direction of somebody like a Shane Lowry. I'll tell you another player that I think from the American side that could go very, very well in that top point scorer or top player

uh combined point score market i don't quite understand why he's this price because i think zander and patrick can play are likely to play all five matches for the americans and i think they're going to be one of those teams especially when you look at the president's cup i think they're so close together i think that they're going to play potentially in all the matches together so i'm seeing patrick can play at 11 to 1 and i'm seeing

Xander at 16-1. And you think, well, if they're going to play all four games together in terms of their foursomes and four balls, the only difference in that price could be the singles match. So I think 16-1 on Xander in the top four

combined point score market is also a good bet. And if you're looking at him in that market, I don't think he'd be a bad shout also for the top American market as well. What do you think on Xander? For me, we've been so long with Xander being put up at very, very tight odds. And this actually looks an opportunity where, to me, there's a bit of value in his price for the Ryder Cup this week.

I think this is a good spot for Zander. I wanted to just also mention the fact that I love Lowry as well. And I think what's important about kind of when you're trying to get into these markets of top point scorers, it's very important to kind of do your best to try and figure out and speculate who they will be paired with. So a Lowry, for example, I could see Lowry playing with Rory a fair bit. And, you know, you can kind of,

If Lowry and McElroy are paired together two or three times and Lowry is at double or triple the odds as Rory as top point score, they're each getting the same amount of points for if they win a match. So I totally agree with the Lowry call. I think he was somebody that I was looking at as well. As far as Xander, I think this is a good course for Xander. He has no experience at Whistling Straits. He has no experience in the Ryder community.

cup. But, you know, he does rate out well for me when I kind of ran a bit of a statistical model. He's pretty good from 200 yards plus. I do think long iron play is going to be pretty important here. Xander's very long off the tee. He's kind of sneaky long off the tee for how non-imposing of a player he is. And he's number one in this field in sand saves as well. And if you

just from a quick glance at the course, this course is absolutely littered with bunkers as well. Very good on par five. So I think Xander is obviously a really well-rounded player and can play well anywhere. But I do think that this course specifically is a good course for him.

The player that I was looking at, and again, this is an interesting segue because I'm so fascinated to get your take on some of how people in the UK feel about the noise surrounding the US team. But Bryson is very interesting to me because I think that...

I think that there's a universe where if Bryson gets off to a hot start and Bryson is playing well, they, he has the potential to really, really, really succeed in this, on this course. And, and in this environment, I do think that like, I look at when I ran through all of the numbers, uh,

Bryson and Rahm were the two clear best players on paper for me based on the statistical analysis of how they've been playing and what the important skill sets are, in my opinion, for whistling straights. Bryson is...

over his last 50 rounds, he's first off the tee. He's first in proximity from 200 yards plus, and he's first in driving distance. First in birdies are better gained as well. So those four things, he's first in all of them in terms of this field. Off the tee, long iron play, distance, and birdies. Bryson's number one in all of those things.

So I think that if Bryson is able to get off to a hot start, he's a player that I really think that whistling straights is a tailor-made course for Bryson DeChambeau. In terms of, do you, how are you kind of, do you think, I know you already mentioned that you're on the European side, but

And this kind of goes back to my initial question about how people in the UK kind of feel about the US. I'm so fascinated to hear how you guys feel about some of the chemistry issues that we've had versus the obvious kind of level.

locker room component advantage that Europe has had over the years. I was just listening to an Ian Poulter interview the other day where he was laughing about it. And he said, on paper, on paper, on paper, you can say on paper to me all day. We still believe that we feel confident in our side. How do you kind of feel about A, Bryson and

Are you factoring into your handicap as part of the reason that you were on the European side? Is it because some of the noise that is coming out of the U.S. side with the chemistry and the Brooks and the Bryson and all of that stuff? Or do you think that stuff's a little bit overblown?

I think in terms of Team Europe, I think their chance... I generally back them on the basis I think their price is inflated. It's too big. There's a lot of rhetoric out there that the Americans are going to blow the Europeans away. And actually, if this golf course was being played in...

25, 28 degree temperature weather with no wind and they probably would. But again, if this weather gets up, it's undoubtedly going to play towards the European side. Now, I'm with you on Bryson. I mean, I'm looking at my eight-week numbers and he ranks first for off the tee. He ranks seventh against the 24 players for strokes gained approach.

He ranks second for strokes gained tee to green behind Daniel Berger, of all people. Top nine for putting. And if you actually look strokes gained total, so strokes gained current form, this includes Eastlake, includes all the strokes gained numbers from there. Number one would be Patrick Cantlay. There's no surprise in that, is there? Number two is actually Bryson DeChambeau. Three tied, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas.

Now, I was going to ask you, Andy, because clearly, you know, we don't get all of the content on the golf channel and the golf chat over in the States.

The thing with DeChambeau is, the big, big question is, does DeChambeau get to play more than three matches? Because I see a lot on Twitter about, oh, you would never have... How can Bryson be placed in foursomes? You know, who's going to play in foursomes with Bryson DeChambeau? It just can't happen. It won't happen. And that kind of has been... That's at the back of my mind. So...

Is there a world, though, where Steve Stricker, he gets off to a hot start. Are they playing four balls or foursomes in the morning on Friday? I'm not aware. Is there a world out there where actually DeChambeau starts hot

and very you know very reminiscent of mollywood back in 2018 once if a player is winning in their team then is stricken to say oh no i'll rest you for the afternoon or is he going to say well actually looking at statistics as you said this golf course suits you down to the ground you're the best driver in the whole of the rider car go out there and do your thing again

And if, you know, if Bryson DeChambeau can be in a situation where Stricker's going to be able to trust him enough to buddying him up, I personally think, and I might be talking absolute gibberish and I usually do, but I could see a DeChambeau-Tony Finau team, for example. That's exactly what I was going to say. I think they are perfect together.

yeah so you know all of this oh instantly well DeChambeau won't play all five matches because everybody hates him and that's a very easy narrative to go down the route of but I'm not so sure that's a situation that Steve Stricker would get forced into that situation if DeChambeau is performing and if he's actually

but you know placed with someone that he's going to be able to play good team golf with and tony finow to me don't bear any mind we mentioned him earlier didn't we first ever major top 10 here in 2015 way back in 2015. this course suits tony fina down to the ground and don't forget if the conditions get gnarly they get a little bit windy gusty a little bit tricky finow's got that background where he's great by the coast

Look how well he played at the Northern Trust, which was a bit blurry. There was some nasty weather around. He's done well at Open Championships in the past or Genuine Links courses. I think Finau, even if he's not playing with DeChambeau, I can see Finau having a good week. I can also see Finau and DeChambeau actually working as a partnership. I agree. I've heard some takes about...

you cannot play, you cannot have Bryson in the alternate shot, which is the foursomes. And to answer your earlier question, it's foursomes in the morning and four balls in the afternoon. I actually think that Bryson and Finau together in alternate shot in the foursomes format would work phenomenally well because I think the one

issue with Bryson right now that, that causes some concern for me is his short game has been very poor recently. It almost feels like I'm not going to say he has the chipping yips or anything like that, but he's, he's lost, uh, he's lost stroke short game in

eight straight starts, which is kind of odd for him because historically over a larger sample size, his short game has been fine. It has never been the strength of his game, but it hasn't been as bad as it has been currently. And what's been kind of fascinating and doesn't get talked about a lot with Finau is his short game has been unbelievable. Finau has an

excellent short game. So I think in, in an alternate shot situation where you have Bryson and Finau together and you know, what's great about the foursomes is it, it resets on every tee. So you can, you have the ability to have, um,

you have the ability to strategize a little bit if that makes sense. Like for example, in Colin Morikawa, if they have Colin Morikawa paired with someone else, you have the ability to say to Colin, who's an excellent iron player, hey, we're going to have you go off on the odd number hold because they're more par threes. There's more ability for you to hit irons if you go off on the odd number holes and vice versa. I think you could do the same thing with a Bryson Finau matchup where

there will be a lot of holes where Bryson can absolutely bomb it up there as far as he wants and have kind of some of those awkward pit shots that Bryson does tend to struggle with, but Finau excels with. I think they would be perfect on paper, in my opinion. So I'm seeing DeChambeau at 16-1 in that top points combined market. So it'd be fascinating to see Thursday, Thursday, you know, when they...

there'll be some entertainment they do their speeches and whatever it'd be fascinating to see if de chambeau is elected to play in those morning foursomes i think so too i i'm really curious i'd be amazed if he gets selected for foursomes on on friday and they win i can't i cannot see for the life of me they wouldn't be thrown back into the four ball i really can't

I think so too. Go ahead. Well, I genuinely think that that's something that the Americans can get better at as well. And that's something that the Europeans never shy away from. If a team's winning, it keeps playing. Simple as that, really. So, you know, I can see a scenario where Thomas and Spieth play together. And I think because they've got such strong voices in that team room, I expect they'll be allowed to.

whether they were part of the Patrick Reed scenario is all up for conjecture, but I think Thomas and a speed will play together. You can't see Zander and Cantley being split up as long as they're doing well. I could see DeChambeau and Finau working as a team. I could see DeChambeau and Finau working, working as well. And then, and then I think like,

I think Morikawa and Scheffler could be interesting together because I think Scheffler is such an... The reason why Scheffler was picked... I mean, Stricker said this exact same thing when he was asked about why he didn't pick Kevin Nyes. He wanted to select excellent drivers of the ball, and Scheffler...

awesome off the tee he's very long and he's he's very straight for how long he is as well and then obviously we know that Morikawa is the best iron player in the world I think they could be an excellent pairing together Brooks is kind of the fascinating one to me uh from a chemistry standpoint and just I I was thinking Berger because I mean they're both Florida guys um Brooks is

pretty good at everything. He's an excellent driver of the ball as well. And Berger is an extremely underrated iron player. Over the last 50 rounds, he's the number two iron player out of all these 24 players behind Colin Morikawa. I said, you know, he ranked number one tee to green last eight weeks in my analysis. That's Daniel Berger. He just couldn't buy a punt. Yeah. I think Berger and Koepka is interesting as well. And then, you know, Harris English and Dustin Johnson are

I don't know. Maybe. When you go through the names, it's a crazy deep team. How do you fit them all in? Do you think Koepka will actually play? Is that definitely going to happen? So that... Here's my thing with Brooks. And I'm almost tempted to...

I'm almost tempted to take the other side of this whole thing and say that Koepka is going to be awesome this week. Because I think what's interesting about Koepka is, as we kind of mentioned, I can't remember whether we touched on this off-air or on-air. I think it was on-air. But I think the injury was serious. I really do. And so the fact that he's playing this week...

Um, I think that it means he's in good form and he had a perfect out Steve. Like he, he, he, if he didn't want to play this week, he had the out with the wrist injury. Everyone saw that injury. It wasn't some fluke joke injury where it was like, Oh, Brooks didn't want to stay the weekend or Brooks didn't want to play this tournament. Um, cause he wasn't in contention. Like that was a real injury. And so I think, um,

I don't know if you're familiar with the Golf Digest big article that they wrote on Brooks where he had some comments that were a little bit concerning in terms of how he feels about the Ryder Cup and how he compares it to other major championships. I think Brooks will play. And I...

I say that obviously with a little bit of hesitation, but I think the chemistry thing on the United States side, I happen to be a little bit in the camp of it is a little bit overblown. And if the Europeans do win, it's not necessarily because there's all of this infighting and drama with the U.S. team. It's more because we're underrating how much whistling could play into the Europeans' hands.

if the conditions are as we presume them to be a little bit windier and a little bit more blustier and a little bit more link style than we were hoping for. So I,

I think Kepka is going to do well here again on paper. This is a great course for him. Kepka, you know, obviously he does very well on longer courses. He's an excellent driver of the ball. As you mentioned, Kiowa is a pretty good comp and he contended at Kiowa. He was great at Torrey Pines as well. So I think this is a good course for, for Kepka. And I do think that he's going to have success this week. I don't,

I don't think that, I think once they all get there, Steve, I don't think that there's going to be as much drama maybe as we expect. That's it.

I'd love to be in that team room. To be fair, I would sit and watch the live feed to the team room and pay a subscription for that just to see the dynamics, just to see the body language, someone sitting in the corner not getting spoken to. It's crazy stuff. I mean, how you fit Speed, Johnson, Koepka,

DeChambeau, JT, Finau, Zander, Morikawa, Cantlay, you don't disappoint these characters. It's a very tough task. Very, very tough task. I'm looking at my numbers. Jordan's speed averages 4.7 matches for his outings for Team America so far. So basically he's just missed one. I think he's had, what has he had?

He's played 14 or 15 maximum matches that he could have. DJ averages four. Brooks Koepka, across his two Ryder Cup outings, has averaged four. JT played every match at the Golf National, so five. And then Tony Finau and DeChambeau, they got three games each at the Golf National. Clearly, Berger, Cantlay, English, Morikawa, Zander and Scotty are making their first Ryder Cup appearances.

appearances but just looking at Cantlay and Xander at the President's Cup they played all five so I think that Cantlay and Xander will be part of Steve's master plan to play as many games as long as they're winning that's the key to all of this isn't it

Yeah. Yeah. I think it's just an abundance of riches, isn't it? It's just as an abundance of riches. And with the European side, not so much an abundance of riches. Yeah. I mean, I, when I was kind of, I kind of did a, I kind of did a little bit of a deep dive on all, on all of the players. And I was trying to kind of figure out, you know,

Fitzpatrick is not coming in playing great golf right now. Neither is Weisberger. I mean, he's playing okay, but he's not. I mean, he finished T20th at the BMW PGA, but last five starts, he had the second, and I think it was, I can't remember. It was on the Masters, Omega Masters. Correct.

but he's not, he's not coming in playing amazing. And, and Lee Westwood, obviously he had that fantastic run, uh, earlier in the season in Florida where he finished second at Bay Hill and the players, but he's really cooled, um, since then. So it,

as you mentioned, it's, it's kind of, it's really fascinating to see. And I think what is, what's it, what is all going to come down to is if the Europe, if the top end of the European team, if Rory, Rom and Hovland, if those guys have really good weeks, I,

I do think that those are all three players and maybe Sergio and, and Poulter and Casey as well. I think all, I think, and Lowry too. I think, um,

I think Sergio Poulter and Casey all play four times and Lowry as well. I think there's a situation where I wouldn't be shocked if Weisberger only plays twice and if Westwood plays twice and, and if, if yeah. And if, if Fitzpatrick and Hatton, it kind of depends. Hatton hasn't been in great form either. So I think it's going to come down. I think the X factor in this Ryder cup, in my opinion is really,

Rory, Rom, and Hovland. I think if those guys can beat the American kind of top end, I think that the European side is going to surprise some people. Steve, you've been incredibly generous with your time. I know we want to get out of here as you've had some family returning to you soon. Before we get out of here, I kind of want to just, is there anything else that we haven't touched on that you want to talk about in terms of

your thoughts, whether it be from a gambling perspective or just kind of closing thoughts on what kind of brought you. I had a feeling, Steve, I mentioned this in my last podcast that, you know, I was on

the side of the US, but that after talking to you, I might find myself warming up a little bit to the Europeans. Do you want to give a little bit of one final sell to the listeners on why you did decide to back the Europeans? I think the value is in Team Europe. And I'm sitting here on a Monday looking at a forecast that might change completely by Friday.

But if what I'm seeing even transpires to say 60, 70% in terms of the cold temperatures, the wind, I just genuinely think it suits the Europeans far more in terms of just the way that, you know, the way that the Europeans play golf and the way that we're able to grind.

And if it's more of a grind, I just think that might suit some of our players like a Hatton who's got a great short game of Fitzpatrick, a Lowry, some of the undersung players, not the big names. The other thing to point out, Sergio Garcia, 25 and a half points he's generated for Team Europe.

over his career on the Ryder Cup, which is absolutely phenomenal. It'd be interesting to see if Garcia and Rahm are going to be a team that just...

play a kind of monument team that won't get split because you know that that Spanish angle that Garcia Ram angle whenever you whenever you see an interview with Ram he always quotes Sergio as being a hero of his a motivator I think that Spanish you know that was a Spanish headline group of Garcia and Ram with Garcia's experience and a 54% win rate at the Ryder Cup um

Him and Rahm could be a phenomenal team this week. As we know with Garcia, fantastic driver of the golf ball, great in windy conditions, has had success by the coast as well. So Garcia and Rahm, if that becomes a team, I think that could be an extremely strong spearhead team for the Europeans this week. Real quick, you just made me think of something else. Who do you think they're going to pair Hovland with?

well i think they all want to play with them yeah i know i know that rory does thing is i mean you can't you know if you're if you're categorizing rahm mcelroy and hovland as your best three in the team you wouldn't really want to put mcelroy and hovland together for example you'd probably want to keep them split i could see potentially a hovland playing with

A Lee Westwood for the experience, maybe in an opening match. You could see him being linked or teamed up potentially with Paul Casey, who's got masses of experience. Because I think Hovland, being a rookie, never experienced in the Ryder Cup, and everyone talks about it, the fact that it doesn't matter how many majors you've played in, until you've stood on that first tee.

on a Friday morning, players have never been so nervous in their life. I could see Hovland actually being paired with someone with some experience. I was going to say Poulter. Yeah, potentially Poulter. Although Poulter and McIlroy have formed quite a good team over recent Ryder Cups.

And maybe that could be another spearhead team, Poulter and McElroy. And Hatton too, they're all friends. Poulter, Hatton and Rory are all pretty close, right? Poulter, 64% win rate in the Ryder Cup. That's phenomenal across his career. 14 wins, two halves and six losses.

He is a winning machine, the postman. Yeah, I could see Poulter and Hovland, potentially Poulter and McElroy, something of that ilk. I'd be surprised as well if Garcia and Rahm don't play together for at least a couple of matches. I agree. I think, yeah, I think...

I would say Rom and Garcia is a great pairing. I've heard Rom. I've heard the idea of pairing Rom and Hovland together or pairing Rom and Rory, sorry, Rory and Hovland together as kind of the Europeans answer to those US pairings that we know are going to be so deadly and Spieth and Thomas and Xander and Cantlay. But Steve, let's get out of there on that, man. I think I...

this was a fantastic conversation and we could have, I could have done it with you for another hour or two. Um, I am so excited for this Ryder cup. And before we get out of here, man, why don't you tell, uh,

Why don't you tell everybody where else they can find you this week? Are you doing, I know you mentioned you had a podcast coming out tomorrow morning as well. I already saw that you guys released your form statistics and your combined statistics. So I would encourage everybody to go check out golf betting system. Dot it's co.uk. Check out those. Are you doing an article as well?

Potentially. I think what we might do is formulate some thinking as a group tomorrow in our podcast. So yeah, Golf Bec System podcast will be out tomorrow morning.

morning for you for a stateside or lunchtime over here in the uk we've got loads of free statistics combination stats where we've got current form and how players have played at whistling straights in the past straight form stats we've got um we've got also stats there in terms of how players have performed in the combined

point scoring markets over the years. We've also got a Ryder Cup predictor model, which includes for the first time ever, we've got six months of strokes gain data in there. So strokes gain, both European tour and PGA tour combined, all completely free at Golf Betting System. So come and take a look. And yeah, the podcast will be out tomorrow, Tuesday.

And Bamford Golf on Twitter. Everybody, please give Bamford Golf on Twitter if you haven't already. Steve, once again, thank you so much for joining me, my friend. And I'm sure we will continue to stay in touch and do it again soon sometime. Much appreciated. Enjoy the Ryder Cup and enjoy your time now. I'm very jealous. Thanks so much.

That's it for the show, guys. Special thanks to Roto Baller Thrive Fantasy and of course, Steve Bamford for joining me. I will be at Whistling Straits for the Ryder Cup this weekend, so no Sunday preview for me, but I will be back on Tuesday with the guests breaking down the Sanderson Farms. Until then, I hope you enjoy the Ryder Cup as much as I will. Catch you next time.

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