The Major Report Part One
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Yo, yo, yo. What's up, friends? Welcome in. I am thrilled and frankly honored to welcome you all in to the debut, the official launch of The Major Report. I'm Joe Idoni. My partner alongside me right over there that you see is the great Andy Lack. Andy,

We made it. We made it, man. It's Masters Week. Yeah, I'm super pumped to join you on this new endeavor. Super proud of all the work that you've put in. I said this on my podcast, but I can really take no credit for this. This is your baby, and I'm just honored that you chose me to come along for the ride.

Well, the idea really started right about four months ago when you came and joined me for a round of golf over it down here in Wellington, Florida, at the Wanderers Club. We had this idea. We've stayed in communication ever since to do something really special for the majors. And I'm proud that it's sort of come to life. So what we have on tap is three plus hours.

hours of completely commercial free, ad free, me and you with the help of many guests, just golf content. And we wanted to kind of make this live from the masters, but essentially centered totally around gambling and DFS content. Excited to launch this, of course, with you, my friend. And you ready to get going? Let's do it. Let's get started, man.

Before you guys, um, we get too far into this, please jump over to the YouTube page. If you can, uh, like give this thing a thumbs up, smash that like button, retweet this, uh, share it with a friend. All of those things help to get more eyeballs on the show. And, and we would greatly appreciate that. The audio feed of this podcast will be entirely on the preferred lines and the inside golf podcast, uh, audio feeds, uh,

probably later tonight. So stay tuned for that. Andy, it's Monday. It's Masters Week. There's a certain five-time champion lurking the grounds that is expected to make a big move this week. How are you feeling coming into about 72 hours before we kick this thing off?

Good, man. I've been busy. I did a couple local radio hits earlier today. Shout out the fan in Kansas City and my guys at San Diego. But yeah, it's been busy. Major weeks are always busy. I got a lot on my plate this week, but

I love it. And I kind of front load it too, because once the tournament starts, I really get to sit back and kind of relax. So I would say this Monday through Wednesday are going to be pretty hectic. But once the tournament gets going, man, it's probably my favorite four days of the year.

It's going to be a lot of couch time. I already told my wife, she's like, do we have plans this weekend? I'm like, no, but that does not mean that I am available. I will be on the couch watching the Masters firmly for a lot of it. So here's what we got on the menu for tonight, just to give you all out there a quick little rundown. So we're going to kick things off with a course preview. We've got Steven Hennessey and John Haselbauer over. We got a little video to play for that that are going to detail some of the changes made to Augusta National, what we're looking at

this week. Then we're going to bring in the Godfather himself, Pat Mayo, to go over the top of the odds board. From there, Steve Bamford joins the show to give us a case for one Rory McIlroy this week.

We'll be right back.

Nagels Bagels to do a case on Xander Shoffley. We'll wrap things up for the show and get out of here without further ado.

Here's Steven Hennessey and John Hasselbauer on the Augusta National Course preview this week. We are joined by two of my good friends, two of the smartest minds in the industry. Steven Hennessey, the deputy editor of Golf Digest, also co-host of the Be Right podcast and oversees the Top 100 Golf Courses panel. And John Hasselbauer, who you probably know as PGA Tout on Twitter. He puts out an incredible podcast.

course preview article and does a bunch of content over there for the wines. Steve, I want to start with you. So there's been some changes recently made to Augusta National that we haven't seen yet for this year's Masters. As the resident architecture nerd like myself, I kind of want to start by getting your thoughts on some of those changes.

Yeah. They're not the most dramatic changes. Obviously we've seen a lot bigger changes in the past, but I think the tee shot on 11 in particular will change the way some of these guys, uh, approach that tee shot. You know, they've moved it back by 15 yards and to the left. So, um,

and they've taken a lot of those trees out to the right. So, you know, we, we saw a bunch of guys in masters in the past few years, just kind of bombing out to the right and they kind of had no problem, um, you know, taking that really tough part of that approach, taking it over the water that kind of took that out of play. They could bail out right very easily, um, or hit the green. So I think that's a great change, a subtle one that, that we'll see in the tournament. And then 15, they moved the tee, um,

Back pretty significantly, as Tiger said in an interview we did with him recently. You know, he didn't even know they had land back there, but Augusta finds land. And they also recontoured the fairway a little bit. I think that's in order to kind of prevent guys from being able to shape it right to left and kind of get a really dramatic roll down the fairway. So it should make that approach to 15, which was, you know, forever one of the toughest games.

shots on the golf course. And, you know, in recent years, it really hasn't been. That's kind of, you know, an automatic birdie hole down the stretch. Possibly that makes that hole a little tougher for the modern game. I feel like so many of us can just picture every hole in our minds. We don't have to go through them all. Have they done anything to the such distinct and unique green surfaces to adjust those either this year or in recent years that you think could play differently?

You know, I don't think so. It's very possible that Augusta has done something. And, you know, that's kind of the fun part of the Masters is we don't really know until the guys start playing the course, you know, on Monday and we start hearing from them. That's part of their experience, too. But.

But nothing significant in my mind, you know, really, you know, it's just how the putting surfaces play, how soft they are, or how firm and fast they are, which ideally, you know, we see kind of not like 2020. So yeah, we'll see once we start getting feedback from the players.

John, I want to loop you in here too. Do these changes that we just discussed a little bit as somebody that spends a ton of time breaking down the courses, does this change or affect in any way the way that you're kind of handicapping Augusta this year? And if not, let's start talking about some of the biggest things that you're looking for this week.

Yeah, I would say not particularly. I think if it was not the Masters under the microscope that it is, these would be negligible changes. We're adding like 15 yards on a couple holes. It does technically put it over 7,500 yards now, but again, that's not a significant change holistically when we're looking at handicapping the tournament. It's still the Masters. Maybe, I don't know, if you have middling course history and this change, maybe it's good for you, but I don't really see it that way. I'm going to continue to look at

You know, the tried and true stats that matter the most here. I think what will probably put the most premium on, at least from my standpoint looking at this, is around the green game. You have to have touch. You have to be creative. You have to have a feel around these greens where you're hitting shots that you're just not hitting in other courses. And you need to be able to be comfortable on short-sighting yourself or...

hitting into some of the firmest and fastest greens that we see on tour. So I think that's a quality that we see is pretty consistent in the list of winners we've seen over the last decade. Really, if you look at Matsuyama and Spieth and Reed and DJ, these are all guys who are reliable around the green.

So I think first and foremost, you have to be good there. And if you're not, I'm sorry, guys like Victor Hovland, but I just don't see it. And I bet Victor Hovland last year as a bit of a mystery being a young kid, we don't really know what to expect. But you're going to get exposed if you have flaws in your short game on this course. So I'm really looking for guys, first and foremost, who are crafty around the greens.

John, we talked to a guy and we'll get to it a little bit later in the show, but he let me in on something that basically the month of March, this area in Georgia in particular saw more rain than they've seen in the last 10 years. There's more expected to come, I believe, early in the week next week. Does that impact you at all and how you're looking to target players? Are you looking for guys that carry it a little longer with the driver or how does that change things in your mind if the course is playing soft from the fairways?

Yeah, definitely. I think that's what we saw at the Birdie Fest of the Century Tournament of Champions this year is if the course gets a lot of rain, there's nothing that you can do to make it more difficult. I mean, they have some of the most expensive drainage systems in the world at Augusta National State of the art as best as can be. Saw a similar thing at Sawgrass. Infrastructure-wise, it just didn't matter when you're getting that much rain. So if it is playing softer, it is...

advantage to the longer hitters you're going to get less roll out in the fairways i think it's advantage to the better approach players too i think we haven't really seen like the approach marksmen have that sort of consistent trend of winning on this course because it's more important to be more well-rounded and be great off the tee approach around the green and putting but if it's soft and you're just pin seeking it's going to be advantage to to the top approach players i would say

Steve, I think one thing that we're going to hear a ton this week is that Augusta National has the most predictive course history, where it is the number one course on the PGA Tour schedule, where year after year experience really matters.

Are you giving a chance to some of these players like a Sam Burns or a Taylor Gooch? Or are you really of the mindset that this is the one week of the year where you really want to have some experience here? Because as I think both of us know, like Augusta is a very nuanced course.

Yeah, you're right. Experience matters here more than anywhere on tour. And, you know, if you're making a decision between a few guys in your player pool, you know, good course history at Augusta, obviously huge. But I think what we're seeing, like we saw with Will Zalatoris last year, you know, some of these guys are just so good and, you know, they're used to playing a brand new course every

every week that maybe some of that is kind of, you know, negated a little bit just because of how talented these guys are. You know, I don't think it's a non-starter for someone like Sam Burns because they haven't played in the masters before. It's a disadvantage for sure.

But, you know, is he good enough to do it and win the Masters or at least contend? Absolutely. So, you know, I think that's something that maybe is a trend that we look at in five years and say, you know, maybe the course experience like that really isn't as much of a necessary factor as it had been in years past.

It's so much of a sort of underrated aspect in the team aspect of playing golf. And that what I mean by that is a player and his caddy. We've seen the impact that it's had on Scotty Scheffler recently. Obviously JT has got bones on the bag this year. I spoke to Steve Scott before and he told me something that the oldest caddy at Augusta national told him is that you don't read the greens at Augusta. You learn them. And,

How important is that sort of impact on a player to just be there early, prepare and get all the work done and have that experience if you don't have it as a player with the caddy? Totally, Joe. I mean, like these greens and this is to Andy's point, too, they are so different than any other set of greens ever.

these guys will see. I've seen the caddy books that those guys have at Augusta, some of the everyday caddies. And, you know, there's little red dots in their books that, you know, it's where Rays Creek, you know, kind of affects the putts on the greens. And

in some ways, there's no rule that you look at at Pebble Beach, the balls always roll to the water or whatever. That's not the case at Augusta with Rays Creek. Rays Creek affects things in ways that you can't really pick up unless you have the experience there. So

you know, that is absolutely a factor. And these caddies who, you know, may have only caddied here a time or two, they're doing their homework just as much as the players are. So, you know, they're seeking advice from, you know, the Joe LaCavas or the veteran caddies out here too, because, you know, they know that's such a leg up if they could guide their players to, you know, read these greens in a way that, you know, they wouldn't be able to just a couple of practice rounds in early days. Yeah.

John, you already talked about around the green as a key metric that you're looking at. We're going to get so much information over the course of the next couple of days, and it's going to be probably an information overload for a lot of people. It's really difficult sometimes to sort through what really matters and what really doesn't. Do you think there's any other key metrics or things about Augusta that maybe are flying a little bit under the radar that are kind of popping for you?

Yeah, it's interesting because it's the tournament that we care about the most and probably the tournament we talk about ad nauseum the most of any each year. But there's no stroke scan data at it. So it's hard to pull exact correlations from the stats that matter from a statistical standpoint. A lot of it is eyeballing, looking at trends and looking at the profile of the type of player that tends to

have high finishes each year. So in addition to stroke scan around the green, the five main categories that I'm looking to like start my model with, you already said course history. It's paramount here more than any other course. And I think that goes beyond what we've talked about with having the familiarity with those nuances, but it's also just the atmosphere coming here is just so different than any other tournament. Some guys relish it.

Some guys just can't really seems to like reconcile what it means to play at Augusta National. So I think there's a big difference in the guys who really embrace the course history here and the ones who are maybe a little nervous in the moment. In addition to that, we talked about driving distance as well. This is going to be 7,500 yards. It's not a must. You can get away without it.

But more often than not, it's going to help you. So I want to see players who are at least above average to the field and driving distance. Three putt avoidance. I think this is something that we've seen Tiger Woods take advantage of and his dominance on this course where if you play this course strategically, you bail out a little bit to the middle of the green and you don't short your side yourself. You take advantage of that experience. It's such an important lag putting course.

And so even Will Zalatouris, who gets a lot of flack for being a terrible putter, but he's a phenomenal lag putter. And I think that is a key to why he was able to contend his first time here. Just avoid those three putts, get away with par. It's going to go a long way here. And then lastly, par five scoring, um,

That's where you have to make your dough here. You have to take advantage of the par fives. You have to put yourself in position to make those birdies and even eagle opportunities. After those four par fives, it's very difficult to find a scoring opportunity on this course. So if you clean up on those par fives, I think you're going to really set yourself up well this week. John, I wanted to follow up. Is there a particular...

ball flight that is rewarded or preferred at Augusta? I think normally in the past, it was thought to be kind of a draw for righties. It's why we've seen a lot of the lefties who play a fade play well here. But the last couple of winners, I know DJ predominantly plays a fade. I believe Hideki does as well. Is there one that you would prefer in terms of your player type? And is that something you may factor in this week that the course sets up better for?

Yeah, I think you want to, historically, you want to see a right to left. All of these lefties, we've seen Bubba and Phil, even Robert McIntyre in his first career start last year had some success. Maybe that's a good omen for a guy like Eric Higo making his debut this week. And Patrick Reed, we know, plays that kind of power draw. So historically, yes, right to left. But as you said, Dustin Johnson always has favored that left to right kind of baby cut. So, yeah.

I'm not going to fade a guy because of the ball flight. Definitely, if I'm leaning a certain way, some of these predominantly right-to-left ball flight players might have a bit of an advantage, but it's a major. You're going to have to work it both ways. You're going to have to hit a bunch of different shot types. I would also say just a higher apex on these shots is

is going to help because you're hitting it to firm and fast grades if the conditions are not that soft, which I think ladders back to driving distance as well. If you're hitting a shorter club in, that should help you on your approach shots. Yeah, I would say to John's point, you know, what we see is,

in years past is that, you know, hitting that right to left helps, but the way this course is designed is, you know, most of the time it's a man's the opposite shape on your approach shot. And also interestingly, you know, if you overdraw it on some of these holes, like two and 13, that's where you find the trouble. However, if you play a fade and a, and a cutout to kind of the right side and kind of bail out on two, um,

you know, you do have a shot to make birdies still. So, you know, that's just one of those interesting design nuances that we've seen over time. Okay, guys, final question. I want to hear from both of you. Let's start with John, I guess, given all this information that we've talked about, is there any player to you? I know it's still a little bit early. That's kind of jumping off the page for you. There's a few, I think.

I the the like theme of the week at the Masters is creativity shot making and and Spieth and Bubba Watson are the two guys historically that have always sort of exemplified that and their history at the Masters is probably better than their history at any other course. I don't think that's a coincidence. Now, they're not in the best form this week. So those are not two guys that I'm jumping on. But that's the sort of.

quality of player that I'm looking for this week yet again. Um, Scotty Scheffler makes a ton of sense. I think he'll be a very, um, a popular play. He is the highest priced player on draft case. I think that's with good reason. He's definitely a feel sort of player. Um, and he's had pretty good results. He hasn't really, um,

you know, challenge the top of the leaderboard yet, but he's young. I expect him to do pretty well here. And I know we're both pretty high on Justin Thomas this week. I haven't bet him yet. He's, he's getting a little bit of popularity, but another guy who's just trending in all the right areas. We talk about peaking right before the masters. He's absolutely doing that. Had a great chance to win the Valspar championship.

And a guy who's, you know, as good as they get when it comes to around the green touch. So he's a guy last year who going into the players, I was like, this guy should have a player's championship by now. And that's really all it took for me to bet him. Same sort of feel. This guy should have a green jacket at some point. He's trending in all the right areas. So I think he'll be definitely a popular guy this week for 2020 Masters, 2022.

He'll be popular based off of the fact that at least three of us like him this week. I think back to last year, guys, as you'll remember, right before the rain delay, he was two shots behind Hideki. And then he comes out after the rain delay, makes that triple or quadruple, whatever he made. And then all of a sudden he was out of it. But to John's point, he has all the shots, I think. And, you know, he's proven that he could play well at Augusta National. So, yeah.

a popular pick, but he's probably mine. And then Sam Burns, you mentioned him, Andy.

I'm going to bet him. I think, you know, given the talent and given, you know, the recent form, I mean, three wins in 10 months, this is not your typical debutant here. I think the number is great on Burns. I think it's worth a shot. And, you know, if Wills Al-Torres could have done it, he played the 15th hole at even par, I think, last year. If he doesn't do that, he's got a shot over Hideki. I think Burns absolutely has a shot if he plays his game this week.

What a pleasure. Great breakdown, guys. Steven Hennessey at S underscore Hennessey on Twitter. John at PGA Tout. We're looking forward to a big week, Steve. I know that you'll be there. We're all very jealous in what hopefully some news comes soon that's going to make it maybe the most highly anticipated Masters I've ever seen. But best of luck to all of you guys this week. Thanks for joining us on the Major Report. Thanks for having me, guys. That was awesome.

Welcome back. Now that we got a little course preview out of the way, let's talk players. More specifically, let's talk the favorites. Here to do that, the one and only, the founder of Mayo MediaNet, the co-founder of FantasyNational.com. Probably, this isn't really questionable, the hardest working man in golf content. Without a doubt, the godfather himself, Pat Mayo. Welcome to the Major Report, Pat. How are you tonight?

The part about me being the hardest working person, not true. I just make it seem that way. That's the whole key. Make people think you're working hard, then you don't really have to work hard.

Well, you put out an abundance of content, including the video today. It was great. It had to be so fun. How cool was it to get Adam Schefter on the show today? It was pretty awesome. I had no idea how big of a golf fan he was until he wanted to be on the show. And I was like, all right, yes, we will. Yes, you can come on and talk for as long as you want. It's probably the most...

I mean, I had to keep it a secret for one thing. I would have promoted it, but it was like, eh, last second, he might just pull out. So it was pretty exciting. Very rarely. I know that both of you guys have been on the show and I don't want to diminish your contributions, but I was pretty excited for this one. I have to say, I was pretty impressed with how Jeff handled himself. I could have seen him asking probably 15 to 20 more Chargers questions. Which...

We had one, which I told Jeff he has room for one Chargers question, so make it count and we'll be good. Well, I thought it was excellent, man. And I know you already talked about the favorites a bunch, but I want to run through them again with you here and see if maybe as the day has gone on, you've gotten a little bit more firm on some of your stances. So I'm looking at DraftKings Sportsbook right now.

And we still have ROM at nine to one JT, 12 Scotty Sheffler, 12 Cameron Smith, 14 DJ, 16 Brooks, 20 Xander, 20 Hovland, 20 more color, 20 Rory, 20 speed, 22 can't lay 25. And then there's that big drop off before we get to Zalatoris at 35.

Of that group, who has your attention as we stand on Monday night? So I've been shifting. I didn't. I was just like Jeff and like a lot of people out there. You stare at the top 10 guys and you think to yourself, yeah, I can see those guys winning. So how do you narrow it down? Do you go with form? Do you go with history or just go with hell at that point? Who do you want to win? Who do you think is going to win? And

That always just leads me to Morikawa. No one wants to bet him this week. The form, just so terrible. It's so funny he's on such a pedestal that when he doesn't perform up to winning every single time, gaining 10 strokes on approach, all of a sudden he's not good anymore. And no one wants to bet him to win his third major in nine starts. Don't forget two and eight. Not a 25% clip in major championships. Not bad. He's one of the few guys that I trust down the stretch. And I will say that when we think about these guys at the very top,

that so many people think about the mean outcome instead of what is the 99th percentile outcome. And the 99th percentile outcome is what you need to hit a golf winner amongst all these guys.

Are Scheffler, Cam Smith, John Rahm, are they going to be more consistent? Yeah. These aren't top 20 bets. These aren't top 40 bets. I am looking for Morikawa to come out, play his best golf. And the type of golf he plays should actually set up for Augusta much better than the results have shown. Yeah, he did come to 18 last year, which I think is a pretty good result in your second ever Masters.

But if he can drive the ball well, accurately, slightly above the field average, get to the spots where he needs to hit his irons like he normally does and have just one of those weeks where Morikawa makes putts and we see enough of them that we know that they can happen. Why not call him Morikawa here? It would be my question to you.

Well, it could be any of these guys, I think, and you can make a strong case for any 10 of them right now, sub 25 to one. Well, I want to take a little different approach. I want to ask you to make a case against one of these guys. Have you read inked any of these? And is there any that you can see yourself crossing off here Monday before the Masters? Yeah. Rom, Scheffler, Thomas, Cam Smith,

DJ just based on the odds alone. Yeah. DJ is the easy one. We know what happened with DJ earlier today. Yeah, that that that that's that's a rough go for him. But like with Scheffler and Feinberg and I talked about this first time major winners under 20 to one happened very infrequently for since 2014. And listen, Cam Smith, obviously he can win. Scotty Scheffler, obviously he can win.

but I don't think that there are significantly better players, like half the odds of the guys that are double their odds. And I kind of feel that way about Rom as well. Rom is sort of on a different tier just because if he gets it going, we know he has the upside. We know he has the history. It should work out pretty well for him. But I just start looking to the second pack of guys. I am going back to the top of the board somewhere. So I have it whittled down to Vic, Brooks, Spieth, and Rory. And I had no intention of ever betting Spieth.

But now I'm starting to get sucked in just a little bit. And I shouldn't have looked at the Valero numbers. And then I did. And I was like, oh boy, if he can just do that this week, he's going to win.

Yeah, the Valero numbers with Spieth were alarming because eye test wise, it still looks like he's working through things. But I had the same reaction with Spieth. I was shocked to see the Valero numbers. Are you waiting a little bit? Like, do you see any of these guys drifting as the week goes on? You mentioned that you don't think Morikawa is going to take a lot of action. I agree with you. I think Hovland probably falls into that category as well.

Yeah, I think Hovland does. I haven't made the Morikawa bet yet because I think that number just gets better as the week goes along. I don't think it passes 30, but we could probably see a pretty strong 25. And if you play at some sites that gives you boosts on places, you can probably boost that 25 up to a 30, up to a 33, something like that, just because he's not going to take any action. And it's sort of if everyone likes Justin Thomas so much this week, why wouldn't you just play better? Justin Thomas would double the price.

That's right up Andy's alley to trigger him there on a Justin Thomas. I want to ask you about my guy sitting there right at 20-1. I don't think this number is going to move much. They don't tend to budge on him of majors. How do you stand on Brooks Koepka this week, Pat? Love Brooks. He's on the short list. Kost said he couldn't win, so that's always good news. There is something, too, that everyone I know likes Brooks and has bet Brooks already that there's just no way that can happen. Yeah.

Yeah, that's – I mean, it's Brooks and JT, right, seem to be the most popular that I've seen. I mean, JT was trending on Twitter today. I don't – yeah, because he was – people had to practice around Tiger. Okay, that makes sense. That's because Tiger is important, not so much JT. I mean, I get the JT love, but like I said –

Yes, he has a better short game to get it up and down than Morikawa. Morikawa is a better driver. Morikawa's spike putting weeks are better. Morikawa's won more majors. Morikawa's won more in the past two years. I just don't get it.

I think it's the, I think the Bones thing is a big one. I think having Bones there who, you know, obviously he knows Augusta better than everyone else. You know, he's won there three times with Phil and been Phil's caddy for two decades. So I think probably the Bones thing. And I think with Morikawa, people just don't think that he can win

33% of his majors over, but before the age of 25, I think that's kind of, it's the same way that people feel about Shuffler to a certain extent. It's like a Shuffler really going to win four times in six starts is more collar really going to win three times in his first nine majors. And we're probably going to be sitting here like four weeks from now saying Shuffler really going to win like six times in his first eight starts.

His run is very reminiscent of the 2016 Jason Day run where he's not going to keep doing this and then just he keeps doing it. It's kind of insane. Yeah. Well, one guy, Pat, that I wanted to ask you about. So in the same token that Spieth kind of maybe showed signs at the Folaro to give you a little life.

Rory had a little change up in strategy by going to the Valero, skipping the match play, went there, seemingly had no distance control from 100 to 150 yards, which would indicate a big problem at Augusta National. Are you...

Are you still a fan of that move to kind of change up the strategy here? And what do you fancy of sort of his odds right now? It looks like FanDuel has the best number to 21 to one on McElroy. Well, I've never heard of that site before, so I don't even know if it's legitimate. I probably wouldn't put my money there. I would prefer to use DraftKingsSportsBook.com.

He's on the short list for me. I fully believe in Rory. Having a bad week at Valero, in my mind, is kind of a good thing for him, where all the pressure's off. If he had come second last week, or hell, if he had won last week, the pressure goes through the roof on him. Every story is about the Grand Slam. Actually, every story is told about Tiger. And then the secondary story would be, Rory, career Grand Slam. But now, like, legit, no one is talking about Rory in terms of the media. Which...

We'll talk about him because we're talking about odds. We're talking about who legitimately has a chance to win this. But in terms of the popular culture surrounding golf, it's like, yeah, Rory's here too. Great. His odds might even drift some more. I've seen him as low as 22. You guys don't have those books, but we do up here in Canada. But I don't know if I can put him in my power. Like if I only have one of these guys to choose from, am I really going to put him ahead of Brooks right now? Probably not. Would I put him ahead of Spieth?

I don't know. It's a decision. Listen, I have two more days to make these bets. Everyone does. I think people forget that because we need to get the content out as quickly as possible. We need these firm stances and you come on and make your cases. But the weather looks absolutely horrendous. Kind of want to see what that's doing before I invest all my money into this thing.

Yeah, not only that, but I mean, this area of that area of Georgia apparently has gotten like more rainfall over the past month than it has in like the last decade. So you think Rory on a soft golf course, I mean, that's probably a great fit. The last guy I want to ask you about is Xander. I mean, I think he's

He's probably another good candidate for somebody that can drift as the week goes on. It seems like he's more fine. You don't think so, huh? No. Immediately the first thing everyone says, you know who's a sleeper this week? Xander Shoffley. I know. And then his number just went to 20 to 1. I was going to say, I heard you say that on the DraftKings show where it's like Xander's the pick that everyone thinks is sneaky that is the opposite of sneaky. Which he is. Because now people are just betting Xander Shoffley. Yeah.

Hmm. Interesting. Okay. Yeah. I mean, I see him at 20 right now on DraftKings. What about Cantlay? You want to bet Cantlay? I do. I think so. Andy, who don't you want to bet?

Well, JT and Cantlay are my guys. So my question to you about Cantlay is like, what changed? We were talking about him as potentially the best player in the world less than three months ago. He played bad at the players. Unlike Morikawa, I mean, I faded him at the players. I wanted nothing to do with him. He's been bad for two months, like legit bad. He can't hit his irons anymore.

Well, two starts, right? Like players and match play. We don't have data from, but I guess. Did you watch him at the match play? Not great. Not a ton. It's a variable tournament though. You know, I'm not putting a ton of stock into that. There are a lot of guys that were bad at the match play.

Sure. Can we go back a little bit further? Like, oh, where's, I mean, one of my favorite corollary courses, Riviera, a place where Cantley has played so well over the years, lost over two strokes on approach. Like the last time he really played well was at Phoenix. Even at Pebble Beach, he came forth, didn't really,

play all that well, kind of gagged away win against, I mean, Spieth was there and like, yeah, he and Bo Hosler, it wasn't a master's type field. So listen, he can win. We know that he won what four times in the past 16 months or something crazy like that. He won the player of the year. Shouldn't have, but he did win it. I just, at these odds, no, it's like the Xander thing. Like at these odds, no, thanks. If they want to go out and win, they'll be winning without me. I'm sure they don't care about that, but they're not getting my money.

What's the importance of these guys, Pat, do you think getting off to a really hot start on Thursday? I'm wondering if you have any indicators in the past of like showing guys who, who jumped out of the gates earlier, or do you think this is something that you can look on some of these guys, particularly at the top to sort of play in tournament live, as you may see them five or six strokes back after the first few days. That's what I, it also depends on who's at the top of the leaderboard as well. If you have three guys, if,

Smith and Rom are three clear of the field on Thursday. Chances are one of those three guys is probably going to win and keep it going. But I do, and it all depends on the scoring conditions as well, where you get, I mean, even if you're even par after the first round and the leaders at six, seven under, you're definitely not out of it by any means. You have a much horrible chance to win that. But as everyone starts coming back to the field, it just takes one or two good rounds. You just don't want to have the awful round. You don't want to have the 75,

out there because that can absolutely bury you. You need to make your bad round, round and a half, two rounds, even par one under somewhere around there and then have those super scoring rounds where you can go out and everyone at the top of this board is so capable of shooting at 65.

at Augusta. I mean, it'd be difficult to do, but they all have that potential. That's kind of what separates them from, you know, like you mentioned, there's a huge gap after Cantlay to Zalator. And then it feels like there's actually a huge gap again. I know someone like Russell Henley is 35 to one, which I assume no one in the world is going to bet, but that's the difference between like these 10, 11 guys and everyone else.

Any closing thoughts, Pat, on this top range before we get out of here? And then give us a full plug of everything you've got going on this week. I know you're a busy man this week. Well, I did find some enhanced odds. I grabbed Zalatoris at 40. I like Will Z here. Like if we're going to compare Zalatoris to Cantlight, no, they're not on exactly the same level, mind you. But for 15 points more, the guy who came second last year putted the lights out.

at Augusta, by the way. And even as we've seen him through these just horrendous putting issues, it's not like he's been non-competitive. He's been incredibly competitive. That's why we've been noticing it. And,

And if the ball striking continues, he can continue to lag putt like he did both last year and he's been doing. Will Salatoris is much better from 67 feet than he is from three feet, apparently. And the short game has wildly improved. That was the one thing I really noticed at Torrey Pines when he ended up losing the list was how good he was around the greens. And that sort of creativity, I don't think it's talked about enough with him that I think that can really come through at the Masters. So,

Going Morikawa, a little bit of Will Z, and then one of the other guys in that 20 range, I think, are how I'm going to end up building my card. But yes, Pat Mayo Experience Audio Podcast. I'm giving away some Master Swipe. I'm giving away another one of these shirts. It's a large, which wouldn't fit me, but...

What's with American sizes? Why is everything way off? I ordered myself like my normal size and I am swimming in all clothing is all American clothing, like three sizes larger than the rest of the world. Is this what's going on here?

Well, it's hard for me really to speak to the rest of the world sizing, but yeah, we've, we've seems like we've shifted a little bit, particularly in the sweatshirt realm to, you know, you need a little bit more room to breathe in there. Us Americans. It is outrageous. I ordered a small polo from the master store and it was legit two sizes too big. And it would be, I factored in like the American sizes into it. Like, Oh yeah, I'll go one down for medium. No, not even close. Yeah.

Well, like we mentioned, you churn out more golf content than just about anyone. We greatly appreciate you for hopping on and kind of supporting us here. And no one better to talk the top of the odds board. Thanks a lot, Pat. Yep. Fade Mayo. Win money. Thanks, Pat. Oh, Pat's just the best, isn't he? I remember the first time I went on his show. He'll take you on.

He'll like, like, like he's out on Cantlay. So you gotta like, you gotta come willing to, uh, to duel with him. Um, but obviously, uh, the godfather, as you said, so always great to talk to Pat. I like his case for Morikawa. He's more of like, he's more, I was thinking in more for, for draft Kings, but I really do like the fit for Morikawa as well.

Yeah, absolutely. He made a great case for him. Yeah, there's just a lot of guys there, right? It seems like who do you expect to drift, Andy? Because they're shoving, you know, 10, 12 guys like I'm used to. And I talked to our next guest, Jeff, about this. It seemed like that sweet spot for the Masters was always like 25 to say 45 to one. And there's like nobody there this week. Do you see any you see Xander can't lay Hovland more coward. You see those guys maybe moving down in that range.

My first reaction was Xander, but Pat might be right about that. I didn't get to listen to a ton today. Some of the people that I usually talk off with aren't really in on Xander, but that's a very small sample size. I could...

very much be underrating Xander's popularity. He is decently high on DraftKings. In terms of ownership, which isn't necessarily predictive of the betting market, but he's way higher than Cantlay on DraftKings. Hovland, I think, is a decent candidate because the short game is so bad. Are we overrating that?

I don't think so. I don't think so either. I was just curious of your opinion. Yeah. I don't think so. And listen, one thing I talked about a ton is I'm all in on the idea of guys that hit the ball long and high, because I think this course is going to play longer than it ever has before. And Hovland fits that bill really well. He's like top five long iron player in the world. He's plenty long off the tee.

I don't trust the short game. The short game has put him out of tournaments at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and stuff like that. You can't do it here at the Masters. I don't think you can get away with it. But if he gets to 30-ish, obviously that's super appealing.

Well, one guy we touched on briefly that I want to go a little bit more in depth on was Rory McIlroy, right? The enigma that is Rory at the Masters. We have a very special guest coming in from across the pond that's going to do our first of four player spotlight segments that we have on the major report. Let's bring him in right now, Steve Bamford, to talk his case on Rory McIlroy.

Hey, welcome into another edition of the Player Spotlight segment for The Major Report here. Now, honored to be joined by Steve Bamford. Welcome to the show. Thank you for joining us, Steve. Greetings. How are we?

We're doing wonderful. So you, my friend, have the honor as well of taking on and sort of building a case for one Rory McIlroy. Obviously, a big, important tournament for him. Little change up in strategy this year. How do you fancy his chances and what are the best odds you're seeing available at this moment a couple of days prior on Rory? Best odds this side of the pond, we're seeing 16 to 1.

So 16 to 1, that's available right now with Paddy Power. So you can get 10 places each way with that as well. So that's the big odd. I wouldn't be surprised if we see that get slightly bigger, maybe 18s, potentially even if you're lucky, 20s.

Yeah, he's worked so hard over the last course of many years and peaking for this event in particular. Something about the pressure to it. Do you think that that can affect him positively next week with a little bit of change up in strategy? I think the change up in strategy works for him. I also think that the fact that he's coming in pretty much under the radar. There's not many people talking about Rory McIlroy either. I don't think there's going to be many people talking about him within our community today.

I think he's going to be one of those ones that just bubbles under the surface slightly while other people talk about JT, John Rahm, Brooks Koepka, the usual suspects.

Do you think that, I mean, I think the issue that Rory's had, not just necessarily at the Masters, but in a lot of major championships recently is getting off to slow starts, right? Do you think that the decision to play the week before the Masters was kind of an active move to try and buck that trend and try and build some momentum and just do something different because what's been happening the past couple of years hasn't really been working for him?

Here are his numbers from last year, Andy. 2021, 60th, 39th, 11th and 48th after round one in the four majors last year. So I can also remember the PGA Championship at Keohor Island teeing off on 10, I think it was, and just slashing it straight out into the blue yonder. So he has had problems, undoubted. I think Kepka did the same, didn't he? But also Kepka clearly was then in the hunt on Sunday. Yeah.

I think the mix-up, I just don't think Rory is into the world match play. And I think he's just trying to change. He's just trying to get that X factor, isn't he? Missing out on last week, I don't see that as a negative in any way, shape or form. But I do think, and I kind of agree with you, I think a lot of this with Rory is mental. It's getting him into the right mental space where he can arrive at Augusta next week

T number one, just actually play his game rather than overthinking things, overanalyzing things.

Beyond getting off to a quick start, what's his path to winning the Masters? What does he have to do better? And are you looking for him to do really hyper successfully besides driving the ball at Augusta next week if he's going to put on a green jacket? Well, let's build. Should we build a case for Rory? Please. Let's build a little case for him. Right. Augusta experience, point number one. Top 10 finishes since 2002. Tiger Woods 10.

Joint second, Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy. So that will tell you six top tens there since 2002. Second only to Tiger. Fourth in 2015. Two fifth places, 2018 and 2020. Seventh in 2017. Then there's an eighth and a tenth thrown in there for good measure as well. Since the 2016 Masters, guys, 11 major top ten finishes. Five of those were T5s.

and going back to 2011 we've done some analysis at golf betting system he ranks sixth for mate this going back to 2011 sick the major scoring average the only five players ahead of him colin morikawa brooks kepka jordan spieth zander and victor hovland surprisingly so victor no top tens we actually look at his results very very consistent just sneaky top 15s so yeah

Yeah, the guy's clearly got the experience. He's clearly got the calibre. We also did some analysis in terms of stroke gains numbers. So, again, available at Golf Betting System. We've gone from 2019 through 2020 in terms of where stroke gain numbers are captured across PGA Tour and DP World Tour. So we're getting all of that European Tour performance in there as well. This is Rory's rankings, yeah? Yeah.

First for strokes gained on classical old-style golf courses. This is in the field rank, yeah? So first on classical courses, second for long golf courses, so over 7,400 yards on a par 72.

Third for par 72s, he's behind only John Rahm and Patrick Cantlay on that particular indication. Second for mid-score tournament total. So what I mean by mid-score, the kind of tournaments that finish 12 to kind of 16 under par, that for me is exactly where we're going to be at Augusta next week. And also top 10 for bent grass finishes across all tournaments since 2019 that he's actually appeared in. So,

Those numbers, clearly, it's elite level. The other thing I'm going to throw in for this case, and I don't know if you guys are up to speed on this. I'm sure you are. You're over much of it. I've recorded five and a quarter inches of rainfall at Augusta in March. Now, that's the highest I've ever recorded since keeping these numbers since 2014.

So 0.8 of an inch also arrived on Thursday. So Thursday pre-tournament week. So 0.8 of an inch. So that golf course has taken on board plenty of water so far. There's also a 90% chance of prolonged rain Tuesday into Wednesday. We're looking at potentially a 12-hour period. So for me, the first 1836 holes of Augusta is going to play soft.

Soft, receptive greens. In terms of ranking on soft golf courses going back five years, I've got Rory McIlroy in fifth place on soft golf courses behind Brooks Koepka, JT, Webb Simpson, I think the course is too long for Simpson, and Dustin Johnson.

Ninth for Strokes game, Tita Green at Bay Hill. Sixth at the players last time out where he putted atrociously. I was actually on board him that week. Putted really badly, but Tita Green game was absolutely spot on. So I think he's kind of lightly raced, as we alluded to earlier. And that game, Tita Green seems to be peaking. Hopefully, he gets into some more form Friday at the Valero and builds into the weekend. So that's my case for Rory.

I think that's probably the ideal scenario for him, right? I'll never forget what he did to congressional at that U S open on a soft golf course where he just absolutely blew away the field because he has such a high ball flight and such a, a long carry distance as well. So that gives him such an advantage when the golf course plays softer and longer.

and a freshly extended Augusta. Don't forget, they've added another 35 yards to the course this year. And he's already played it. I mean, he already talked about, yeah, it's a little bit of a longer hole. You have a little bit more room off the tee, but now you're hitting, now I'm hitting a six iron in. So if Rory's hitting a six iron in, you have to imagine a lot of players are going to be hitting three and four irons in. Yeah, absolutely. I don't think it's going to be Kevin Kisner's year. Put it that way.

Yeah, no kids. Love the case that you built there for Rory Steve. Fantastic stuff, man. You can get that kind of comprehensive and in-depth analysis all the time from you over at Golf Betting System at Bamford Golf on Twitter. He is clearly one of the Mount Rushmore guys in terms of the people that you should be following each and every week. Thank you so much for joining us on the Player Spotlight and building that case for Rory Steve. It was a blast, guys. Yo, yo.

Can you hear me? Yep. Awesome. Cool. We got Jeff coming in next. You got it. Awesome. Let's do it. There he is. Jeff Feinberg. How's it going, buddy? How are you? I am doing well. Ready. Master's week. Ready to lose a lot of money, I think. Yeah. It's a plan. How...

So I listened to you and Pat this morning. Would you say that you're still at the same place in terms of the betting yips or have things started to consolidate a little bit for you as we get into the evening here on Monday night? Things are consolidating, but there's not really anything in the pendings. I'm not really afraid to lose the numbers or the players I'm thinking about.

At the moment. But yeah, I'm starting to think my decisions will be final pretty soon. So let's talk about this. We already talked about a bunch of the favorites with Pat. This middle tier range, Jeff, that has actually been like...

Seven of the last 10 Masters winners have come between 20 and 70, right? So this middle tier range is one that I know all of us like to pepper on a weekly basis, right? So of this range and anyone from Zalatoris all the way down to Scott and Lowry and Hatton and Connors and Casey and Burns and Tiger, of course, I'm sure we'll talk to. You have any decisions you've made so far in there?

So I have bet will Zalatoris guys. I bet him at 40 to one. That was a bet that I, you know, as I said already today, I,

I would have made that bet already. All I needed was one win, any win. And then I kind of snapped into it today and was like, if all I needed was a win, like if all I needed was Sanderson farms or RSM or some muck muck subfield, and I'd have made this bet, then I just got to make the bet. The guy lost in a playoff at Torrey. It's great at quail hollow. It's a second place last year at the masters. Um, the,

The short putting thing, it's a real thing, but I sweat over everyone's short putts. So it doesn't really change how I'm going to take in the golf tournament. I might not be able to change the app when it says Zalatoris for three feet. Like I might need to see the par come up before, you know, some other players. And I get it. The ask is a norm. I'm asking a player to win his first major, to win his first PGA Tour event,

And it's not even a PGA Tour event. It's a goddamn major championship. It's the goddamn Masters. But it does feel like we sort of lost this tier this year. The books are kind of on to the, you know, the Brooks Koepka theory and this tier that's gotten weeded out, Andy. And you've mentioned it. It's crushed major championship at Masters. But well beyond the Masters, this has been the tier for major championships.

in no particular order uh the morikawa wins the brooks win the lowry win uh i'm sure i could keep going i'm sure there's ones on the tip of your tongue but this has just been a tier that's been very kind to not just week in week out golf better but but major championship betting

Yeah, they've totally gutted this range. I would agree with you, Jeff. But there's a couple of guys here we could still sort of talk about. I wanted to talk to you about one narrative that sort of always prevails this week, and that's course history, right? We've got a couple of debutantes or guys that have only played it once or twice. You mentioned the case for Zalatoris.

Sam Burns is here right around 50 to one right now at DraftKings Sportsbook. Joaquin Neiman is another guy that I kind of like at 65 to one who's only been here a couple of times.

How much are you holding that against them that they don't have 36 rounds at Augusta? Or do you think these young kids are just ready to show up and play golf? Okay. They've proven they're ready to show up and play just like they've proven they're ready to show up and play in the NFL and the MLB and the NBA. Like they're just built different now in all sports, or we were just lied to forever on like needing growing pains. Some of them actually don't now to your question, Joe,

You know, as Mayo reminds me all the time, half this battle is finding reasons to bet and finding reasons to not bet guys. So if you like a guy, you can overlook it. Like, you know what I mean? If you like a guy, like, you know, there's just so many things to point to. So it's just, it's kind of like a choose your own adventure. I'll have a card where some guys will have won the Masters and have great experience and some guys won't.

really have struggled, you know, at the Masters. Going deeper into the range, do I want to overrate Hatton and Berger's, you know, sub-under-70 scoring history at the Masters? No, I probably don't, because I both believe that they can handle this golf course. Am I betting them? I am not, but it's not something I totally overrate. All these guys are still so young, and I think that I don't count any of them out.

By the way, I'm currently getting texts about like Hatton 85. Oh, I've been flooded with this. Yeah, right. Yeah, Vanduul opened the floodgates. There's Hatton 95s. There's Burger 85s. Isn't that so interesting, Jeff, that it seems like they would rather drop Burger from 40 to 80 than they would Xander 20 to 28?

Yeah, I think that has a lot to do with the placings, Andy. Yeah. You know, I still think some of the guys are European friends who love the each ways. I've still seen a few of them tout Xander. And I talked to them probably. Oh, man, it comes with eight places. It's Xander.

I'm more of like outright. I go big. I go home. I make extra bodies, so I don't do each ways. I'd rather just swing for the fence. It's the Masters. But yeah, FanDuel's up to something right now. They're craving our money. My phone is exploding. I don't even have access to that website. But Berger and Hatton are guys that I have bet. I think I bet them both in all four majors last year. So it's something I'm probably going to have to...

look into but it is it is quite quite tempting as you guys know like i busted my leg i haven't gone anywhere for two months barely leave the house so all that money like all the money i saved on gas money it's going right in the masters baby all of it like overloading so i'll sign up for both those hat and and burger numbers to be honest so perfect lead-in with the busted leg there

We're eight minutes into this segment and we can't go any further, Jeff, without talking about five time champion Tiger Woods. He's going to tee it up. He's going to play. I'm of the opinion that he plays well. Now, what does well mean? That's yet to be seen. I'm not going to, to, to go too much further into it without hearing your take anywhere from 45 to one right now, you can get all the way up to 80 on some books. Um,

Where do you think they land on Tiger Woods? And what do you make of his chances at the 2022 edition of the Masters? Yeah, I don't think his chances are great, but I think he's trying to like undersell all of us people. Totally like the delaying the news. Like that just makes anything good seem that much greater.

Like he really doesn't know if he's going to play. Then therefore playing shooting even par coming T30 coming 33rd is like such an amazing accomplishment. Wouldn't it be great? I would love it at the same time, guys. I'm curious what the side tiger markets are not so much to make the cut to, you know, I'm sure you could probably shop it and play it on both sides if you've done it early enough.

But my first look at head-to-head numbers, I'm seeing Patrick Reed minus 170 over Tiger, like Tiger plus 140. I'm not laying my – like I think Reed's being disrespected this week in some respects, but I'm not laying 70 cents and picking on Tiger. Like Patrick Reed's 80-90 to one. Tiger's 50-60, and I'm laying 70 cents. So, you know, that just shows you how bad your outright number is.

You're crazy enough to bet it. That one got hit really hard. I think it opened at like minus 140 and I'm seeing it as high as read minus one 90 in some places too. So I guess the guys over in Vegas are a little more skeptical about his chances as well. Yeah. I listen. It, even the walk today, like part of me feels like that's a stage walk. Am I crazy? Yeah.

Like that doesn't look like a walk that's walking like 7,400 yards back to back days. But I think he's just so hyper where the camera's like, watch, I'm going to make them look like I walk, like walk how I'm walking right now, which is I can flex my, one of my knee only bends 30, 30 degrees. And that's, he kind of looked like me walking on the putting green. I think we're being worked. That being said, like worked into a quality, uh,

Like a showing. I'm not expecting anything. I also think his expectations could be lower than a lot of people's. I have this belief there could just be a new, maybe a different outlook. People, when I bring that up, say I'm crazy, wouldn't play if he couldn't win. I don't believe that for a second. Not one second at this week, this right now, a year after an almost amputation. I don't believe it.

We know the stickiness sort of, of course, history and how many times, you know, you got to get around here to really learn the nuances of Augusta National. There's a whole slew of guys here who have had a ton of success previously, all in this like 60 to 80 to one range, but

I'm going to rip off a couple of names. And if you can give me a thought on one or two that you may like Adam Scott, bubble Watson, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey, they all kind of just lump them all together. I don't think they quite know what to do with them. Um, which one would you give the edge to if you're going to put some dollars down there?

I've got a future on Scott at 80, so I guess we would say I wouldn't even mind it at the 60s, 66s. I just like his around-the-green game this year. His putting is around the green. Seems like it's in as good a place as it's been in some time for Scott. So he would be the guy that I would lean to of that sort of veteran international list you sort of just reeled off for me. Yeah, I think, I mean...

Did you talk about Fitzpatrick and Leishman? Did you throw those guys in there too? I've seen a lot of Leishman. No, I didn't. I would probably put Fitz and Lowry probably ahead of all of those guys. I like Lowry. They could be priced that way. I don't know. I'm really tempted for Fitz, and I haven't put red ink through his name yet, which says a lot.

But at the same time, I don't, even though I haven't put red ink through him on my, just trying to narrow down a list of like 40 players to the five to eight that I'm going to bet on five, seven, I'm going to bet on he's surviving cuts, but I still don't see myself betting him. Like in the end, push comes to shove. Although I love everything about the way he's trending as well as, as Lowry who do find themselves in this range and, and,

You know, it's sort of first time galore in that number, in that number, both those players are sitting at. Yeah. We often, Jeff, um, like to use the term elite drift in looking for guys. If we could take this back, say four months to the start of the season, two that really fit the mold here are both right around 50 to one that this number would shock you. January 1st, a decky Matsuyama and Bryson. Obviously that number is due to, to injury concerns for both.

where do you stand on the two of them? Do you see any value in those numbers? If they do indeed decide to tee it up this week, I guess I'm going to have to miss it. Hideki. Like I wouldn't even give a thought to at the moment and seeing Branson speak today. Now it's like, I'm really here against doctor's orders. I shouldn't be here at all, but I'm here. Did you hear what he said about Phil?

Yeah, he goes, he's gone dark. Is that what he said? Like someone asked if he speak to him, does Phil gone dark on us too or something? Yeah, he said, Phil's gone dark. We can't reach Phil. He's off the grid.

Yeah. And I honestly, just to spend one minute, I'm shocked. I guess it's that much worse than I perceived it to be because I can't believe Phil's not here, but whatever. So why do you think it is, Jeff? Do you think it's potentially like a swept under the rug suspension related? Do you think that people have just told him it's not a good idea? His PR team, why isn't he here? What, what,

I mean, who's left to lose? Like if you're Phil, how are you not just doing what's best for you? You've lost. I don't condone anything you said. And some of it is gross at the same time. I don't know that. I thought there would have been enough of a lifetime equity with Callaway with KPMG to, for them to, to have not like totally bailed. I don't know the answer, but for him not to be at his happiest place on earth,

It's like the same reason I'm convinced Tiger was going to play. I'm just shocked. I'm totally shocked. Phil's not at his happiest place, a place that could protect him. If he didn't want to talk to the media, he wouldn't have to.

Yeah, I don't know. It's kind of above my head at this point. And also, even if the conspiracy theory is correct that the PGA Tour did suspend him, that should have zero impact on his ability to play the Masters because the Masters is a completely different entity. Do you think we see him at the PGA to defend his title at Southern Hills?

Now I have, once he does it, like once he's decided not to play the masters, I have no idea like how much deeper this thing goes. So I, I'm, I don't know. I'm going to say yes. Cause I'm shocked. He missed the masters, but I'm less confident than I would have been when I was convinced he was playing the masters. Yeah. In terms of the four majors, Jeff,

Yeah, I'm...

I keep referring it to this week as the demarcation point, but I truly believe it exists at Augusta National. The biggest surprise you get, it's honestly like Hideki, where it's like, oh, that guy, I thought he was going to win the last four years, and he didn't. Now he wins when I'm not expecting it. That's the surprise. Sergio Garcia, a guy...

thought might have won multiples before he actually won those are the the surprise you know winners in the last few years i don't think much is going to change and what's funny is you know now fanduel lets you call burger and hatton like real big long shots i don't know what to do yeah louie's up there too is another one it went from like 40 to 1 to 85.

Yeah, they're, they're, they're, I mean, like a competition in the marketplace is an incredible thing. Now it'd be fun if another book just decides to spike for random middle of the pack offers. And then you can choose your own adventure. If you don't like the one that that book is offering at the moment. Well, all right, Jeff, give us, what do you got to plug this week? I'm sure you're a very busy man. You already have your show with Pat out, but what else you got going on this week?

I'll be joining. I do this show Tuesday, Tuesday mornings, 11 a.m. with the boys at Betzperts. Tomorrow morning, it'll be myself, Ryan Noonan, and Justin Ray. So I'm really excited about that. 11 a.m. on Tuesday morning. And my content will be up over at OddsChecker11.

along with a lot of your guys stuff throughout, uh, throughout the week. Am I allowed to make burger? Like, does that count as long shot column stuff when someone on the grids posting an 85? You know, I saw, we got that. I saw, we got that email and yeah, I think it's anyone above 50, right? Yeah. I think it's anyone on the odds checker grid that you want. Yeah.

Anyone above 50 on the odds checker grid has to qualify. So yeah, even if burgers, I mean, that's almost the point of what odd sugar is trying to do, right? Is we're trying to use the grid to help identify the best numbers. So absolutely. Props to you, Jeff, not only for coming on the show and joining us today. Yeah. For also having the self-control to not ask a ton of chargers questions to Adam Schefter today. Great work.

Listen, that was not the point of it. Mayo told me a couple times, we'll get you a question at the end. That was weird. We're not going to ask Schefter who they're going to draft. Who are they going to draft? Or what C-tier for agent are they going to sign? So I had a question. I took it very macro-wise.

uh, chargers, uh, at is what it is, but that was cool. That was fun to see how much Schefter likes golf. And it's weird when I see a person like that, they like golf so much and it makes you realize they can relate when like crazy NFL fans message them because he seems crazy about a different sport. If that makes any sense. Yeah. I think that's how him and Pat kind of, uh,

started their friendship was he like asked Pat, who should I pick for my golf pool? Yeah, no, it's very fantasy golf related. And one of Adam's top research assistants is a, is a good friend of Pat. So that's sort of how it all came through. It was a lot of fun to chat with them and boys. Thanks for, for having me on here. Absolutely. G Feinberg 17 on Twitter. Thank you, Jeff. Talk to you later, buddy. Later, bud. All the best boys.

All right, real quickly, before we get to our final player spotlight of the night, I'm going to bring in a little interview that I did with another odds checker pal of ours, Tom Jacobs, who's going to wrap for a couple seconds to hear about first round leader and prop markets for the week. Here we go.

Okay. Here to talk Masters props. A fun segment. I brought my friend Tom Jacobs is joining us now on the show to go through it for a little bit for us. Tom, how you doing, sir? Great. How are you doing? It's an honor to be here and great to talk about the Masters. It seems to have been a long time coming whilst also just coming up to us real fast.

We have finally made it. So we've already dug in the show through a lot of the odds boards, but there's a ton of props out there this week. One that I know that you're fond of and you release a great piece every week, kind of detailing some of it. How's the first round leader market shaping up for the Masters? Anything that you're looking to handicap it differently than the full tournament? Maybe one or two picks that you like this week? Yeah, I mean, look, I think for me, I've kind of focused on guys that have done it here before. And there's a really...

clear trend of people back-to-back first-round leaders. Everyone talks about Charlie Hoffsman being synonymous with first-round leader. He's actually only done it once. So it's interesting. But you have to go back to Brett Wetterich in 2007 for the last time a debutant led after the first round. So I think Cameron Young or someone like that would probably be quite popular, but just keep that in the back of your minds. Jordan Spieth has been the first-round leader here in three of his eight starts.

So I thought that was really good. He shot 64 in 2015, 66 in 2016 and 2018. And Justin Rose is four times he's been the first round leader at Augusta. Obviously famously was it seven under last year? He was four clear of the field and he went for a spell of three straight goals.

leaders here. I think it was 2004, 2007, 2008, something like that. So I think both those guys are decent value. I think Jordan Spieth was 22-1 for first-round leader. I don't think he can win. I don't think he's playing well enough to win, right? I think he's, you know, we like Spieth, we like him at Leicester. He's not putting well enough, but I think he can carry over that and

Nearly 11 strokes, gained teaser green at the Valero on Sunday. Parlay it into a first-round leader at the Masters. Everyone gets excited because Jordan Spears contending at the Masters, and then he fades away. That's my prediction. Justin Rose, I think, you know, he just does it here, right? You see these...

old guys just do it and justin rose is unfortunately now an old guy and i remember backing justin rose to win masters two or three times uh you know in a row i don't think he can probably win it this time i don't think his odds really reflect his chances but first round leader market again i think he's kind of like 50 to 1 uh for that for that range maybe 55 to 1 uh depending on where you shop that but um obviously we know where to compare all the odds and things out but um

Yeah, those would be my two guys. I think Mark Leishman as well has had some decent starts here. And Shane Lowry is another one, I think, because overall, I think the Masters in general, if you have six or seven starts at the Masters under your belt, that's a huge thing. I looked back and

Of the last 10 winners, the average starts before their first green jacket was 6.1 starts. That includes Spieth and Danny Willett winning their second start and includes Sergio winning on his 19th start. So a bit of a range there, but I think it is important. I think Shane Lowry is on his seventh start now. And I think when you look at when he's made the cut, he's always shot like a sub-70 round. He's got those kind of major credentials behind him. He was second after round one in 2016. So yeah,

I don't know if I want to play him in the outright market. I think the odds don't quite reflect his chances. But I think that just to have one good round, especially if it gets a bit windy, Shane Lowry would be there. So I think Spieth and Justin Rose for the experience, Shane Lowry for the obvious current form and major pedigree, and maybe Mark Leishman's pop-up.

Always a fun week to sort of look at the prop markets as well that they usually have enhanced offerings for Masters Week. One of the fun ones, of course, this week is sort of the story that we're all engulfed in right now on Monday before the Masters. Tiger Woods, right? Will he make the cut? Will he miss the cut? Right now, depending on the book, the odds are relatively even. I believe it's slightly in favor of him making the cut. I see your points bet has a minus 120. Do you have a take on either side there?

If I could get plus money on him making the cut, I would just take it because if he tees it up, then I think he can get through the one round. And I think that it's an easy cut to make. So I think he could just go and shoot a 70 and 74 or something and make the cut.

My concern is he can't walk, right? I'm not exaggerating. He hasn't got his Nike shoes on because they don't suit his walking. And then the next one you were going to talk about was kind of like the first round score, which is over 75 and a half. Yeah, I thought that number was kind of high. Did you think so too?

I don't know I think that's kind of reflective of the fact he hasn't played for I know 17 months you know what I mean no he hasn't played here since the the defending here and he he opened with a 68 and I think I think that's what gets people so excited and I think there's all these things I've made content this week and I've kind of said like Tiger Woods can't win and I'm waiting just for everyone to click it up and I'm gonna end up in one of those montages on CBS or whatever but um

It's not a hot take, is it? The guy is struggling. He's lucky to be playing in the tournament. And everyone's kind of take on it is that he wouldn't be here if he didn't think he could compete. And I think that's a dangerous...

take because i think that he actually just wants to be here now i think he just enjoys competition i think he's horrendously bored at home i think he's fed up of rehabbing and will just take any chance he can get to go and play golf for me when was he ever enjoyed playing golf in like the pnc and i just think he's desperate if he can go and yuck it up with justin thomas in a practice round that's great for him um do you think he's going to make the cut

Yes, I think he's going to make the cut. I think that for me, this first round one is a pretty good one. I like the under 75 and a half. It's basically giving him – he could shoot three over and still cash that. I think that as the week goes on, we may see him fade with a little bit of fatigue and we may catch some of the physical nature of Augusta catch up with him. But I think that he could start out well, which is why I also think he could make the cut. So I think the thing with that is like you hear –

especially a lot from the old times. Bernard Langer was eighth in 2014 and consistently makes cuts here, right? Yeah. And I think that's what you've got to bear in mind. I'm talking about a guy that's still young enough to contend, but broken. So it's really hard to how you handicap that compared to old age. And he shot 68 here the last time he played here in the opening round. Like, I just worry. I mean, to be honest, I still think there's a chance he doesn't play.

Do you? Yeah. And I think if so, in that case, then anything that you kind of think here can be voided. I think it's better already said avoiding it. So I guess just take the side that you feel comfortable on, because I do still think if he can't, if he plays a practice round Wednesday or nine holes and struggles with it, he might still pull out.

Well, that was a great segment. I appreciate you, Tom. Thanks for talking a little props with us. Best of luck. You can check you out on Twitter. Tell the people where they can follow you and find some more of your content. Yeah, so it's TomJacobs93 on Twitter. I'm now exclusively Odds Checker other than obviously...

uh, lost for words podcast. Thank you, buddy. Uh, and the mayor media network where we do the, the European tour show or DP world tour show, but that won't be here this week. Cause there's not enough guys to talk about in the masters, but, uh, yeah, lost for words podcast, uh, we'll be out shortly after this, uh, for draft Kings and Betty. Incredible stuff. Thanks for staying up late for me over there across the pond. We appreciate you, Tom. Anytime, buddy.

Okay. Back in. Listen, I want to say anyone checking out the show right now. Thank you so much. Go ahead and give the thumbs up. If you're on the YouTube channel, Andy and I worked extremely hard on this. Hopefully it's going somewhat smoothly for all of you. And we are here to wrap it up with an electric final segment, bringing in to sort of state the case on our next player spotlight, our good coach,

good friend and pal the one and only who else can give you a case for Xander Shoffley than Mr. Nagels Bagels how are you buddy hey Joe hey Andy how are you guys we're great man how's it going my friend

I know I'm talking to a couple of my buddies right now, but my heart is freaking pounding. I'm so like, I'm so I don't know why I've been I've been pacing. I've been watching the show. Show's been great, by the way. But I yeah, I'm like I have so much nervous energy right now. I don't know what to do with myself. So I just have to just relax and pretend we're standing on the first seat.

Right? Yeah. Well, okay. So let's talk about a comfy subject. Let's talk about a really comfy subject. So one thing that you and I had been talking about pretty much all year is the narrative on Xander Shoffley entering Masters Week. And I think you kind of had...

a grand plan, a grand hope over the course of the past couple of months. As we sit here on Monday evening of Masters Week, are you happy with where things stand? I'm thrilled. I couldn't not, it could not have gone more perfect. I know you want him to grab a victory at Phoenix or a Torrey or get on the board, as you say.

But no, I'm very content to lie in wait and just let everybody else pick everybody else. And the numbers, it was 18 and it went down to 20. So everybody's saying that it was the numbers just about right. The pricing is right where it's, ah, are we really going to do this? Is Xander going to be my pick to win? That type of thing. People are debating that. And yeah, it's working out well.

It's right in that sweet spot. We're in sweet spot range for sure. Anywhere between like 20 and 24 to 1 right now. May move a little bit, may not. But the floor is yours, my man. State the case. Why is Xander going to win the 2022 Masters? Okay. He's going to win the 2022 Masters.

For no other – I can't open with that. I have a good close to tie it all together. You know, he had a pretty – he's had two pretty tough defeats at this event. And if you – some people like to throw out your first appearance because it's – rookies don't always fare well there.

And I've actually heard some chatter about people throwing out DJ's Masters win because of the November Masters. It's not, was it really the same? So if you take those two occasions out, Xander's got a second and a third here at the Masters. That's his, that's his resume. And I'd like to believe that a lot of these close calls and quote choke jobs has just been good things.

learning experiences. And now it's time to overcome that BS narrative that he has carried with him for a long time. Andy Lack and I talked about his gold medal win and how that is discounted. That's not, that's not a real win. There's always, there's always that no cut BS following Xander around and but

But the one thing about that gold medal win was that he had a nice, comfy lead on the back nine. It was three o'clock in the morning. I'm texting Andy Lack. It's like, okay, things are going well. And then he starts leaking oil. He's leaking oil. He's leaking oil. He's getting 18. And if he makes a bogey, he's going to be in a playoff. And he saved his par from like the woods. And even though it was like a stupid gold medal win,

But it was the moment that he needed to come through in the clutch for once. Because it just seemed that since he won in Hawaii and chased down Woodland, he hasn't risen to the occasion. There's been plenty of times where he blew Colonial and he had a chance to win a playoff against JT and Reed in Hawaii. And he's had his chances and he hasn't come through.

And so the case is building Xander's a loser. He can't win. He doesn't belong with all these guys and it's time. And just two weeks ago at the match play, he was everybody's pick everybody. Oh, he's got an easy path and how he's going to lose to Finau who's in no form. And that's, he's going to coast and he's my one and done pick and Xander. Yeah, I know I was there. I heard all of it. And, and,

He screwed up and he lost to Herbert and Fina made a bunch of birdies and he was gone. But he's not in bad form. His schedule was screwed up.

from the whole Saudi Arabia trip, and he came up just short in Phoenix. He should have been in a playoff there. His form is fine. He played well at the Valspar. He never plays well in Florida. He was four under at the players when he got called off the golf course and had his first tee shot and a 40-mile-an-hour wind on 17 the next day. And yeah, he missed the cut. Tough conditions. It happens. But his form is fine. I'm not worried about his confidence. I'm not worried about

Not anything. And Tiger's there and there's all this attention on everybody else and all these shiny new toys. And Xander's got the experience. This is this is his fifth Masters. Patrick Reed won in his fifth Masters. And it's it could all happen. Not to mention, if we're just going to talk about me exclusively, why I think he's going to win.

I've gone through a lot in the last six months. I've gone through this like transformation. My soul was ripped from me last June at the U.S. Open. I flew out to Torrey Pines for three days. I'm there with Andy Lack. I met my niece. Everything was great. Xander's going to win in his home course and all that happened. And the worst possible scenario occurred. And what was me? My life sucks. Why does this happen to me?

but I've made multiple changes in my life and things are, could not have, could not be better in life. And I'm much happier. My mental health is under control. And all these great things are happening to me because I decided to change my perspective on life. And I'm nicer to people and I'm friendlier and I'm not as angry. And I mean, that may not come across, but believe me, it's true. And I, and now all these great things are happening to me. And I,

To Xander, the win the Masters, it's like, yeah, it would fit. It would make sense in my universe.

And everything is, I've had this plan since last year and it's all coming, it's all coming together. So you don't need strokes gain data for this. You don't need course history or current form or anything. It's just like, you know what? He's had a couple of tough calls and no one's paying attention to him. And yeah, it's time. It's time. It's finally time. I thought it was time last year at Torrey. I was wrong.

Now it's time. There you go. I don't know if I used all my statement. No, I have no follow-up. I have no follow-up. I thought that was an incredible, the best case I've heard for Xander so far. And you're right. I haven't heard a ton of cases for Xander so far. So I think that you're onto something in the narrative sense. I think, you know, one thing that goes, you're going to love this. He played a practice round at the Masters with JT last year and JT dropped him.

to play with Tiger. I could see Xander being like, all right, you know, you love that stuff. Like now everyone's following JT and Tiger and Xander can't lay her off on the other side of the course. Yeah. He likes, you know, he likes being left alone, being under the radar, let him do his thing, go about his business. And what's his clubs do to talk. And that's always been his, it's always been his game. Unfortunately, his, his clubs have been coming up a little bit short. So, but now I think that,

The only detraction I have is I saw my dad last week, and I was asking him who he wanted for a one and done. And my dad is kind of like a very fair representation of Joe Q public. And he's like, I think I'm going to like Shoffley at the Masters. And that just – he's like, really? So I was trying to talk him into Morikawa. So I don't know where he's actually going to go, but –

I don't know. I think I heard Mayo before. It was great. I'm not to sit here and yell at Pat Mayo at all, but I'm not trying to be cute with all nobody's playing Xander. So let me be sneaky. He picks it. I don't really think that's happening. People are waiting for the number to drop and they're,

I agree. It might, it might not, but he's not like Xander. Xander's not the pick the win. I've read all the columns that came out today. There's not, I saw one or two guys had them on their card and they got them at a higher number than 20 to one. And that's fine. But if you ask that person, it's not like, Oh, this is totally Xander's masters. Nobody's saying that I'm saying that. And I'm just hoping that I'm right. I'm if Xander,

I'm not like a thousand percent convinced it was good, but it'll be awesome. And I'll be there for it and I'll have a bet on them and I'll be on my draft Kings team because it's the masters and I'm not going to not have that. I'm going to have it. So yeah, it's all, it's all there and it might get some tough conditions, might get a little wind, maybe not 40 mile an hour winds on the, on the 17th day at Sawgrass, but could be tough.

And Xander plays well in difficult conditions and, um,

Yeah, I don't think he's as popular as the narrative is that he's popular. And the only thing that terrifies me is that everything that I just said about Xander in terms of narrative and no one's talking about him and everything else, kind of make the same case for Jon Rahm. And that is a little scary. It's like, oh, God, is he going to freaking do it to me again? So there is that element of that. I am worried about that. I'm not that stupid, but yeah.

So, yeah, that's my case for Xander. What a legit. He's great at the Masters. His form is perfectly fine.

His price isn't too bad. Cause you got, you got five guys less than 20 to one and then five guys at 20 to one. So I don't know. It's 10 guys. He's like just one of the 10. So when you're making your betting card, you have to pick one or two of those guys. You're building your draft Kings line. It's gotta be one or two of those guys. And I know you like JT and people like Brooks and they can't Smith. This might be popular. Although his number is too low. Like,

You know, there's DJ, there's other guys. And I just don't think it's like, oh, Xander's going to win. He hasn't been, he's not 40 to one where it's like, oh, how do you not? He's not in the female zone. He's, he's still, he's still up there. So I think, I think it's, I don't think it's that bad. And Joe, can I just say one more thing? I know. What's up, buddy? I listened to the fifth episode ever of preferred lines today.

And you had me on as a guest. It was for the Travelers. This was the week after Colonial and the return to golf 2020. Yes. And I kind of blame all this on you because what did I say? You had like a little Q&A segment with me and you posed the question like, can Xander be

handle the pressure and you like you hit me like wait a second people think that that's that that's the narrative now because he lost colonial that now he's a total gagger and I like open my eyes it's like wait a second my team stinks I don't want to hear that my team stinks I'm usually pretty objective I know when the Giants stink or the Mets stink or the Devils stink I don't need

I was always, and ever since, it's gained momentum and steam and snowballed and snowballed. And you had the Masters and everything else that happened since then. And I don't know. He's had some bad luck. There haven't been as many choke jobs as people would like to believe. It's not as bad. It's hard to win golf tournaments. He's been there a couple of times. There are a couple of times when, yeah, he probably should have won that.

But, you know. It's time. Like you said. He's going to have more chances and learning. And I got a message from Austin Kaiser yesterday. Yeah. Tell me about that. Everything's going to be just fine. They're ready to go. They're ready to go. I got a source on the ground. They're ready to go. It's going to be a good week. We have unfinished business. Yes, I said we. We have unfinished business. And we're going to be good.

It's time. It's fucking time, baby. Let's go. I love to hear it. What a smart and thoughtful and emotional take for Xander Shaw. When I had this vision, Nagel, of like this player spotlight thing that Andy and I came up with, like that, what you just gave us right there was exactly what was in my head. So thank you for joining us. I appreciate that. And good luck this week, my friend. I appreciate it, guys. Thanks for having me. Good luck with the rest of the show.

Thanks buddy. All right. I'll talk to you soon. That was awesome. That was fun, right buddy? That was a blast. Yeah. I, uh, I had a feeling some of that was coming with, uh, with Nagels, but he never ceases to impress me.

Well, listen, so this was part a, uh, just over an hour and a half. Like I mentioned the audio version, of course, the video will live on YouTube. The audio version, if you're a podcast guy and you want to speed us up a little bit, uh, we'll be available on both the inside golf podcast and the preferred lines podcast feeds here shortly. Part B tomorrow, same time, same place. We're going to shift focus a little bit less on

the gambling side and more over to the DFS side. We have a ton of guests lined up for that as well. I'm looking forward to doing it all again tomorrow at 8 PM, Andy.

Let's do it, man. I cannot wait. Again, thanks for including me in this fantastic master plan that you've had. It was an honor and I had a blast and I can't wait for part two, man. Thank you all. We'll see you tomorrow. Same time, same place, 8 p.m. Eastern. Thanks for checking out the major report. We'll talk to you guys later. Peace. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are

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