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Okay, I'm recording this at 11 a.m. Pacific time on a Sunday morning, right before the leaders are teeing off for the Travelers Championship. I do not have a horse in the race. Really bad week for me at the Travelers, in full disclosure. Always want to be honest.
when I miss. That's why I post my results along with my season tally every Sunday night or Monday morning. Unit-wise, it's not going to end up being that bad. I'll still be in the negative, but I have Gooch in the top 40, Adam Scott in the top 40, Chez in the top 40, so I'm not looking at a huge loss by any means, but
It's still just one of those weeks where I kind of feel like I missed based on what I expected to happen at this tournament versus what is actually happening at this tournament. So that was a little disappointing for myself. DraftKings wise, I'm going to be okay because I just played a lot of Chaz, Adam Scott and Gooch and
Those guys are fine, but I tend to fade the chalk almost sometimes to my detriment where I get too cute, but I totally faded answer. That answer spot, I just plugged in Tony Finau every single time because I could not fathom the fact that double the people were playing Abraham Answer over Tony Finau, and I'm never going to play a north of 20% Abraham Answer. I'm just not.
never going to do that. It's like against my creed. So him making the cut on the number and then playing well over the weekend, that was tough for me. Didn't play any Harris English at like 22%. The one jockey guy that I did play, I'll always have one guy where I'm like, I don't really care about the number. I tend to differentiate so much from
with all of my cheaper guys that there's always one guy that I don't care what he's coming in at. And I just think he's going to contend and play well. And that guy for me this week was Paul Casey. So the majority of my lineups were Casey and Finau. And even though my cheaper guys said, okay, that's just not really going to cut it.
The guys I'm kicking myself for are Leishman and Smith because those guys were so under-owned, so my type of play, and I was just like, no, I'm good. I'll play Joaquin Neiman and Griot instead. So disappointing week for me, but pro tip.
Tell me coming off a bad one. My bounce backs are pretty great. I do measure all that stuff, how I do performing after a negative week and stuff like that. So I tend to put in a lot more research over the weekend and a little more pressure on myself to come back strong. So I've dug in big time already to this tournament, and I feel like I have a pretty good sense of it. So let's jump right in.
All right. The Rocket Mortgage Classic. This tournament was first staged in 2019. It replaced the Quicken Loans National on the PGA Tour schedule. Former winners at this event, we only have two. Bryson DeChambeau won at 23 under over Matthew Wolfe in 2020. And then Nate Lashley won at 25 under over Doc Redman in 2019. Only have two.
two years worth of data here at Detroit golf club. It is a par 72 measuring 7,340 yards in Detroit, Michigan. It is designed by Donald Ross. It's a bent grass, POA mix on the greens, Kentucky bluegrass for the rough. We only see a Donald Ross course regularly, uh,
twice on the PGA tour. I guess it'd be three times now that you count Detroit golf club in there. But the other Donald Ross courses that we see are Sedgefield country club for the Wyndham championship and Eastlake for the tour championship, which a lot of the players in this field don't usually qualify for anyway. Um,
I don't think that either of those courses are terrible comps for Detroit Golf Club in the sense that they're similar yardages on the scorecard. And Ross tends to do kind of somewhat similar stuff with his greens, but just kind of in a vacuum part of what makes Ross
Donald Ross, such a great architect in my opinion. And bear with me if you get triggered by the architecture stuff, but I just think that he's so good at designing different types of courses. His courses seldom look alike. It's not like Pete Dye where he always likes to do the same type of similar things and kind of have that finishing stretch of like a par three and
a reachable par five and a long par four in some order and kind of route courses in the same way. Ross is way less gimmicky. It's really hard to draw a lot of similarities and common hole designs in Ross's body of work. Like the way that East Lake is designed,
normally routed, it doesn't play this way anymore for the tour championship, but it used to is it closes with a par three, which is not something a lot of designers kind of have the balls to do. The only other course that PGA tour players see that does that is the green briar, which is a CB McDonald design, who is my favorite designer. So I just think that Ross, you know, there are some things generally with the green complexes that,
Um, that we can draw some similarities. Like they do tend to be very difficult and sloping often from back to front. Like for example, Ross designed Pinehurst and Pinehurst is famous for its turtle back greens that repel shots. But, um,
Detroit Golf Club doesn't really have that, or at least certainly not as pronounced as Pinehurst. But that's a really long-winded way of saying, I know that there's a Donald Ross filter on Fantasy National, but I don't love...
Sedgefield or Eastlake as like great comps, they're fine. But, you know, different agronomy Sedgefield and Eastlake are Bermuda courses. And those areas around the greens at those courses are far more shaved, whereas at Detroit Golf Club, it's a course in Michigan. And
And there's pretty decently thick rough. It's nothing crazy, but it just doesn't look the same around the greens. The shots that you have to hit around the greens aren't kind of as similar to the shots that you have to hit off of the Bermuda shaved areas at like East Lake and Sedgefield. So I just think it's,
It's a little bit different just based on where those courses are in the country, I should say. You know what comp I do actually really like is...
Detroit Golf Club is like a much easier version of Oak Hill, which is another Donald Ross course in upstate New York that I've played before where they had the 2013 PGA Championship, which I went to also and watched Jason Duffner win. So if you can find somebody that played well at the 2013 PGA Championship that is playing this week, then sure, I can get behind that. I mean, I'll actually just tell you right now because I did luck.
Jason Day, who's in the field, finished eighth at Oak Hill. Ricky Fowler finished 19th. Hideki finished 19th. Keegan also finished 19th. Webb finished 25th. I do think that Webb...
And Donald Ross, that might be legit. That might be kind of fair because he does love Sedgefield. He's played so well there. So maybe there is something to the Webb-Donald Ross thing. Matt Jones finished 40th. Charlie Hoffman finished 40th. Scott Stallings and Chris Kirk made the cut. Gary Woodland made the cut but finished 74th. He shot an 80 on Saturday. Same thing with Phil, made the cut but shot a 78 on Saturday and finished 72nd.
Bubba missed the cut. Jason Kokrak missed the cut. Glover missed the cut. That's about it. Oh, and Jason Duffner won, of course, and he is playing this week, which kind of illustrates the point that this was eight years ago. So do with that what you will. Kind of in general, I'm just not looking at a whole lot of comp stuff. It's just not one of those weeks for me. I think what Detroit Golf Club really boils down to, and this is just what I'm doing, is
You know, I know I said this a little bit last week with the travelers, but I really just believe that you have to hit your wedges and putt. You know, we can say that Detroit Golf Club is for bombers because you look at that leaderboard and you see that Bryson finished first and Wolf finished second. But guess who finished first? Or guess who finished third? Sorry. Kevin Kisner. Guess who finished T4?
Danny Willett, Ryan Armour, Adam Hadwin, Tyrell Hatton.
Guess who finished eighth? Webb Simpson and math McNeely, not exactly a murderer's row of guys who bomb it off the tee. I really think that these shorter guys are totally in play here. The reason why Bryson and Wolf, and it's a little bit misleading because they get both of them just happened to be really long hitters. But the reason why Wolf finished first and second at this course is not necessarily because they bludgeoned it to death. Um,
It's because Bryson gained eight strokes putting and Wolf gained six strokes putting. And it doesn't matter how long you hit it. When you gain eight strokes putting and six strokes putting, there's a very good chance you're going to win and finish in the top five. So the point that I'm trying to make is I think it would be foolish to rule out short guys here. I don't think that this is a bomber's track anymore.
any more so than your average course. I mean, distance helps everywhere. So I'm not going to say it hurts, but I think short players can compete here, you know, just as good as anywhere. In fact, you know, a lot of these guys in the top 10, they were actually losing strokes off the tee and, and just putting well, like if you look at it, driving accuracy here,
It's 65% compared to the tour average of 62%. So that doesn't sound like a huge difference, but that adds up. That's a pretty big difference. And greens and regulation percentage at your average tour event, 65%. But greens and regulation percentage at Detroit Golf Club, 72%. That's a huge difference.
That's a huge difference. So it's not difficult to hit fairways here, and it's even easier to hit greens here. So more players are going to be playing from the fairway this week, and more players are going to be hitting the greens this week. The natural advantage that ball strikers have on a course like this where—
Only the best ball strikers in the world are hitting the greens. That's just not the case here. So many more guys, even if they're not as good ball strikers, are going to be hitting these greens. It's over 70% greens and regulation percentage. So a guy that is not able to hit greens at Riviera or Torrey Pines or one of those courses with really hard greens to hit and a low greens and regulation percentage is
Those guys are going to be hitting more greens here, even though they're not huge. It's just kind of a shorter, easier course. So it's not really difficult to hit the greens. And as a result, those guys that maybe aren't as elite ball strikers and are kind of
You can't really count on them whatsoever at a hard course where it's difficult to hit greens. And those guys are scrambling and putting for par. Those guys are going to have a lot more 15 and 20 footers this week. Like Wolf and Bryson,
you know, they putted the best and that's why they finished one and two, all these guys from the last two years that played well, they just gained astronomically with the putter far more so than you see at average courses, because that's what you have to do here. When more guys are in play and hitting these greens, it just places a greater emphasis on putting. So you have to make your putts. It's really that simple. Um,
I'll let me place it in context real quick. Cause I want to, this is, I think this stuff's really important. So top 10 finishers over the past two years at Detroit golf club. Again, we only have two years of data here, but they've gained an average of 4.6 strokes putting. So you basically have to get to 4.5 strokes putting on average to
content here. Now, there are players like Keegan Bradley who haven't had a putting week like that in three years. You know, now Keegan can gain 10 strokes on approach and one stroke putting like Justin Thomas did at the players and win. Of course, that's in play, but that's not really what the formula has been at Detroit Golf Club. And I think that's because it's
it's so much more easy and the advantage that Keegan has by being such a great iron player. Well, guess who else is going to hit a lot of greens this week besides Keegan? Um, say we'll say Kevin Kisner, who is not really a awesome iron player, or at least he hasn't been lately, but he's going to hit a lot more greens here than he usually does at another course. So to gain an advantage, uh,
Keegan almost has to be so good with his irons that it's like a lot of tap-ins. And even so, now he has to fend off the Kisners of the world that are draining 20-footers as opposed to chipping from off the green and trying to get up and down for par. So it just makes it that much harder for those guys.
I hope that makes sense. I hope I explained that well, because if people say like, how can you count out ball striking? I'm not counting out ball striking. Ball striking is like 80% of my model. I'm just saying the advantage that ball strikers have this week is mitigated a little bit.
You know, Bryson won here losing strokes on approach, which almost never happens. Right. They still have an advantage like they do every week. I just think that it's less so this week. So I hope I hope that makes sense.
And I'm not saying only take good putters here either. You know, you can definitely take guys that lose strokes putting. Just be wary of how they are losing strokes putting, right? So are they losing one stroke putting every single week or one week? Are they gaining five strokes putting and losing six strokes putting the next? You know, not all strokeputters.
strokes putting are created equally, right? That's the difference between a bad putter and a volatile putter. I've talked about this idea a lot in my podcast because I think it's really important, but you want to gravitate more so towards the volatile putters, meaning players that are capable of spike putting weeks, even if they are few and far between.
I don't really care if my guy loses strokes putting often. I still think he's in play here as long as I know that they can get hot with the putter on occasion. But if I see a player, for example, that like never, and a lot of these guys exist, by the way, never ever gain more than say two and a half strokes putting in, in any event. And they're just kind of consistently hovering around zero every week and
I don't know if that's the week for this, to play those type of guys based on my numbers. You're basically just making the roadmap so much harder for yourself if your guy hasn't shown the ability, at least on occasion, to heat up like that. Because that's how guys tend to finish well here, is they just have a really hot putting week. Could it happen for sure where one of those guys that hovers around neutral every week just...
gets hot. Absolutely. It could happen. Could it also happen that some guy just goes absolutely nuclear with his irons and wins this tournament gaining one stroke putting? Of course that could happen, but I'm just saying that
You're betting on something happening for the first time instead of maybe choosing guys that have shown you over the results that we have on this course that they are capable of a week where the hole just kind of looks bigger and they gain four or five strokes putting, if that makes sense. That's kind of what I'm looking for is I want my guys to show me that they're at least capable of putting
volatile week a spike week where they get hot because that's how we've seen these guys content here and be in play here at this course more so than other courses where maybe there's a greater emphasis on ball striking and a lot of these guys that are going to have 20 or 25 footers this week are
On another course where it's more difficult to hit the greens, they're like having to get up and down. Right. So I think that the putting thing, you know, I think it matters. I really do. And one more thing with the, with the Bryson and Wolf distance to like,
Top 10 finishers, they're averaging one stroke off the tee for the entire tournament, right? Just one stroke on the field through four rounds compared to four and a half times that with the putter. Now,
Your top 10 finishers and guys that finish highly in tournaments, they're always going to tend to average gaining more so with the putter than they are with off the tee. But it's not even close to as pronounced as we're seeing this week. Like top 10 guys have gained four and a half times more with their putter. Off the tee here is even lower than strokes gain off the green.
I'm not saying that it doesn't matter. I think, you know, I watched Bryson last year, so I know the fact that he could kind of bomb away helped. I'm not saying that it doesn't help. I'm just saying that,
I'm not ruling any of these guys out that, you know, they're not bombers off the tee or they're not great off the tee. I think you'd be silly to rule any of those guys out. The only guys that give me a lot of concern are guys that never spike with their putter like ever. Those are the only immediate guys that I'm a little bit worried about just right off the bat.
But let's get into the key stats here because as much as I've talked about how I think it's going to come down to putting and as you know putting is a pretty difficult statistic to predict I do think that there are some key metrics that can really help you handicap this week and go a long way like proximity proximity distances for example.
You know, I've still found a positive correlation between guys who have played well here and greens and regulation gain. But as I've mentioned, it's just not hard to hit these greens here. But you do want to be hitting the ball close. So what I would recommend doing is kind of just loading up on these proximity distances instead of like greens and regulation gained offensively.
I took a small look at everything proximity-wise from 75 to 100 yards. Even though it's only 11% of the approach shots here, like tour average is 6%. So that's basically double more of those kind of short flip wedges shots here at Detroit Golf Club than at a regular tour event. Proximity from 100 to 125 and proximity from 125 to 150.
Both way higher here than tour average. And it kind of evens out as you get higher, but that range of 75 to 150 yards, like tons of wedges this week, you know, tons of wedges this week, a hundred, I know it's 7,300 yards, but you, it's a lot of driver holes too. So even though on the scorecard, it's, it's, you know, 500 yards longer than a TPC river Highlands, um,
It almost plays as short as a TPC River Highlands, if that makes sense, because at TPC River Highlands, it's more so of a less than driver off the tee course, which is kind of Pete Dye's vibe. You kind of have to lay up a lot more. And so it says 6,800 yards on the scorecard, but some of these par fours that are 420 yards or whatever, like you have to hit a driving iron off the tee or whatever versus at Detroit Golf Club, a
you can hit more drivers here. So it almost does play as short based on what's
what these guys are allowed to do off the tee. So I really think that wedges here, um, are going to be so important, still going to look at 200 yards plus a little bit, because there are a couple of long par fours and three of the par fives are reachable in two. So you're going to have some long irons going into those par fives. If you want to reach them, speaking of par fives, you know, anytime a course has four par fives, um,
absolutely going to be looking at strokes gained par fives because at the end of the day,
The guys that tend to win every single week are the guys that can take advantage of the par fives. They PGA tour players pros will tell you that themselves. It's like what I try and do my game plan for pretty much every courses birdies on the par fives tread water the rest of the way. So when you get onto a course with four par fives, something that I'm always, always, always going to be looking at is strokes, gain par fives. And I'd recommend you do the same.
opportunities gained at birdies are better gained. Pretty self-explanatory. It's an easy course. You just have to give yourself opportunities here.
With the putting stuff, this is a bentgrass and poa mix. I'm not going to look at a ton of poa bentgrass stuff. I just figure it's the same northern poa surface that we've seen before at Mirafield Village. I'm a huge agronomy guy, as you guys know, but it can get pretty tricky once you get into these mixes. So I'm not going to drive myself crazy trying to decipher all of that stuff. It's just...
I think there's other ways to handicap this tournament than driving yourself crazy trying to figure out the guys that putt well on this specific surface. If they have good history on POA, that's great. I don't think that that is a bad argument. If somebody has putted well at, I don't know, Muirfield Village before or even on some of the West Coast courses, there is POA in these greens, as is their bank grass. I don't think that...
Either that kind of stuff should be arguments for or against really putting you on a player. It's just not something that I'm going to be looking at too much this week because I have it. I have it kind of really narrowed down to the player that I really do want, which in a vacuum.
Again, like I'm just not looking that much at strokes gain off the tee. I'm really not. I'm not looking that much at strokes gain on the green. I'm really, really looking at, can you knock it tight with your wedges?
Are you comfortable going low? Right? Like I looked at guys who have played well in easy scoring conditions. There are some guys that are more comfortable in birdie fests than they are on difficult courses and vice versa. Just like a guy like Matthew Fitzpatrick is so much more comfortable and he'll tell you the exact same thing in the interviews on a difficult course that
it works the reverse way as well. They're guys that maybe they've been grinding on the corn fairy tour forever. And like you see the setups on the corn fairy tour are just in general way easier than the PGA tour. And they're just more comfortable on easy courses where the winning score, you have to get to 20 under, you know, so,
That stuff, I think it really matters here because I see no reason to believe. I haven't really done a deep dive on the weather or the wind yet, but I see no reason to believe that
You're not going to have to get to 20 under this year, right? I don't know. Maybe it plays a little bit more difficult. You never know. But from the two years that we have, like the cut was minus four and the winner was at 23 and 25 under. So I'm really looking at guys that are kind of comfortable in those settings, in those styles of tournaments. And can you get hot with the putter? Are you capable of spike putting weeks?
That's really what I care about most. It's not a big course history event. It's not a big correlated courses event. You know, it's not a huge the Donald Ross stuff. Like, sure, if it if it if it wants if you want to use it to bolster your argument. Sure. But it's just.
Not I don't think it's the most important stuff this week, I should say. I will say that, like, if you want to look at some performance on kind of old school classical golf courses, you know, Donald Ross is a golden age designer. And a lot of these courses that were designed in kind of the.
late 19th century the 1920s the 1930s the 1940s they are uh very similar um or not i shouldn't say very similar but they're kind of of the same school of design thought so if you want to look at like old school classical golf courses um i can get down with that for sure but at the end of the day like i really just want players that are good wedge players comfortable going low and and
better at tournaments where the winning score is lower and guys that have shown me that they're capable of spike putting weeks. That's really how I'm handicapping this tournament. You may want to do it differently. Go for it if you want to look at it differently. But that's the type of profile of a player that I am really looking at this week. Loves low scoring tournaments, awesome with his wedges, capable of getting hot with his putter,
Maybe if they have some history on a classical Parkland golf course, that's a great bonus. But if not, don't really care. That's what I'm doing. That's what I'm doing. So let's talk about the early leans. Let me give you guys my early leans. I like Webb Simpson at the top. I don't think I'm going to bet like a 14-1 Webb Simpson, but...
If there's a decent number on Webb and no one's playing Webb and no one's talking about Webb, I'm going to be on Webb. I think it's a good spot for him. He finished eighth here in his only appearance. He gained 1.9 strokes off the tee and 4.6 strokes on approach here when he played here. He is better than field average in literally every single metric that I'm looking at. He's 16th in strokes gained approach.
good putter, really good proximity from 125 to 150. Such a great wedge player, really good weirdly on par fives and makes a lot of birdies. He's also second in par four scoring in 400 to 450 yards, a lot of medium length par four here. So he does everything.
everything that i'm looking for he's great with his short irons and wedges great putter really good on par five surprisingly which is probably because he has a really good short game so even if he doesn't hit the green and two he gets up and down for birdie all the time makes a ton of birdies kind of better on easier courses than he has on harder courses not afraid of a birdie fast
you know, eats up the short to medium length par fours. Like I said, I'm not huge on the Donald Ross thing, but you know, it is worth noting that he's like the King of Sedgefield, right. And he's, you know, ninth in strokes game putting on POA over his last 24 rounds. I know that, I know that it's not pure POA, but you know, seventh in this field in average strokes game per round on courses with easy scoring conditions. And again,
I just think that the perception of Webb, I mean, who knows? I get this stuff wrong all the time. Maybe everyone will play Webb and be talking about Webb. But, you know, he just hasn't played like at all this year. He's played nine times this year. There's guys that have played like 16, 17 times, like good players, right? So Webb just hasn't played this year. And, you know, for the most part, when he has played, he's been good. I hated him at the U.S. Open. I think most people did.
I'm not going to hold that against him. That was never going to be a good course for him. Of course, he's going to miss the cut at Torrey, especially if he loses 2.7 strokes putting. Right. So I don't really think that's fair to judge him off of where we last seen him at Torrey. You know,
just two starts ago for him at the RBC Heritage. He gained four and a half strokes off the tee and 5.4 strokes on approach at kind of a shorter course. So I think he's licking his chops for this week. He plays way more sparingly now. He's got four kids. And I think going forward with Webb, what you're going to see is it's basically just going to be the majors, the players championship, WGCs, and courses that Webb has
really thinks that he can win on. I'm not just making that up either. I heard his caddie say that. If Webb is playing and it's not a major or WGC, he legitimately thinks that it's a really, really good spot for him. So I like Webb at the top. He's just a guy that I like. A little farther down, I like Brant Snedeker. I like Brant Snedeker. He finished fifth here in 2019. And
he is another one of those players that kind of illustrates the point that I'm talking about here. Like when he finished fifth, he actually lost 2.5 strokes on approach and gained 7.5 strokes putting. He just rates out so well for me. Uh,
Really good putter. Fifth in proximity from 75 to 100 yards. So really good with kind of those flip wedges. 21st in proximity from 100 to 125 yards. Like Webb Simpson. He's almost like the Webb Simpson light from a statistical standpoint. So you can kind of get a sense of the guys that I'm targeting this week. But he's fourth.
in par five scoring brant snedeker is fourth in par five scoring over his last 36 rounds would not believe that 17th and birdies are better game too um so similar to web he just rates out so well on these par fives because he can just kind of knock it up close to the green and then get up and down um i think you know i don't know if i'm gonna get there on an outright but i'm gonna have a ton of him in draft kings i'm gonna play him in the top 40 market um
you know, he's made six of his last seven cuts. So he's, he's playing well. Um, he's got that six at the Valero 11th at the ballast bar 17th at the Byron Nelson in there. He's coming off a miscut at the travelers where he was kind of just neutral in every category. Um, but,
I think it's a good spot for him. I think this is like the type of course that, that Snedeker is kind of liking his chops at again. He's like, if web is the King of the Wyndham, um, Snedeker is like the Prince. Um, uh, actually, uh,
I don't know. I think Snedeker might be the king because he's actually won at Wyndham and he's actually won at Eastlake as well. So he's probably like the king of Donald Ross in general. He finished top 10 at Pinehurst too, I believe in the 2014 US Open. Made the cut at Oak Hill. Again, like I'm not sure that I totally buy into the idea of a Donald Ross specialist just based on what I know about Donald Ross as an architect. But
But I think Brandt is probably the closest to that, right? You know, he is averaging, if you just throw the filter on for Donald Ross, he's averaging a stroke on the field on Donald Ross courses over his last 24 rounds. So he's just been absolutely awesome on these setups. Really good on birdie fests. Snedeker makes a ton of birdies. It just feels like it's such a perfect setup.
for him. And, you know, he...
It doesn't feel like he's been contending as much anymore, which may keep me off him in an outright sense. But he can still just rack it in with the putter. You know, he is now lost. I love looking at these guys and playing these guys that are good putters but are coming off bad putting weeks. But he's now lost strokes putting in two straight starts. And the last time that he has lost strokes putting in back-to-back starts, in the third start, he's gone...
plus 3.4, plus 5.1, plus 1.6. So big pro tip there that has helped me out a lot. Look at good putters coming off like,
bad putting week or a couple bad putting weeks because they usually never never do it like three weeks in a row and you just see with brant like he doesn't do it often but he's got two weeks in a row now where he's slightly lost with the putter and historically in that third week he's like plus three plus 1.6 plus five so he's too good of a putter to lose strokes three weeks in a row he's
awesome putting on these Donald Ross courses. So even if you want to do the POA thing too, like again, I don't know how similar this surface is to West Coast POA, but he's won at Pebble Beach twice. He's won at Torrey Pines twice. He's six in this field and strokes game putting on POA over his last 24 rounds. So I love Brant Snedeker. I love Brant Snedeker. I hope he doesn't get too mushy.
I like Gary Woodland. You know, he's missed the cut here in his only appearance, but he hit the ball really well at the U S open. He lost a combined 2.7 strokes around the green and putting, but he gained three and a half strokes off the tee and he kind of gained on approach as well. His ball striking has been really, really, really good. He's now gained strokes on approach in four consecutive starts and he's
15th in strokes gained approach 39th in opportunities gained decent in all the proximity distances but nothing special but he's great on par fives he makes a lot of birdies great on medium length par fours plays so well on
classical parkland golf courses like already this season he's finished fifth at quail hollow and 14th at colonial it just this just feels like the type of course that suits gary's eye i think he could probably do a lot of different things off the tee here if he wanted and i think naturally people tend to look towards woodland on harder courses um right because he's won the u.s open right but he makes a ton of birdies um and i think he's a really good play this week um he's
He experienced a lot of success on POA, most notably winning the 2019 US Open at Pebble. Again, West Coast POA versus what we're dealing with now. Whatever. That's not my biggest reason for Woodland. I just think this is a good spot for Woodland. I hope that the odds are pretty decent, but he's definitely somebody that I'm going to be looking towards. And then a couple quick other guys that I'm going to spend a little bit less time on before we get you out of here, but
I have been off Tringali for like a month and a half. I played him when he first started popping for me, and he made me a lot of money earlier in the season, and then he kind of got way too mushy, and I just stopped. And I haven't played him since he finished third at the Valspar.
I think this might be a decent week that I kind of hop back on and maybe not in an outright sense, but in like the top 40 market and in draft Kings, I think this sets up so well for Tringale sell set. You know, again, it kind of depends on ownership and stuff like that. But yeah,
you know, I'm looking at what he's done recently. He's missed the cut in his last start at the travelers, but he gained 2.6 strokes on approach to the, through two rounds. And,
and lost slightly off the tee and lost 1.4 strokes putting. He was really struggling off the tee for a little bit, but now he's kind of got it back going in the right direction at the Travelers. And he had his best approach week despite missing the cut since February. And he missed a cut on the number and lost strokes putting. That's going to happen. Tringale is such a good putter. I think that's kind of what I'm looking towards here if –
Because all these guys that are going to pop in every single person's model this week are playing this week, right? Like you're getting Keegan off of two missed cuts. You're getting Griot off of two missed cuts. You're getting Tringali off of missed cuts. You're getting Hoffman, I believe, is playing, right? Chris Kirk, you know, all these guys that are going to pop in everyone's model are
If you're trying to like delineate between them, I would side with the guys that are the best putters, or I would at least side with the guys that pop with the putter the most. And Tringali is like an amazing putter. Um, he's had three weeks this season where he's gained over six strokes putting, um,
He is certainly comfortable going low. For the most part, he plays way better at birdie fest than he does on hard courses. Like he's fourth in this field in average strokes game per round in easy scoring conditions, fourth in this entire field.
is Cameron Tringali and he's finished fifth here in 2019 and 30th in 2020 so like if you're trying to delineate between like a a Griot and a Bradley um and maybe some of these guys that are decent ball striking but um maybe a little bit of better putting putter just keep in mind that like
Guys like Griot, you know, he hasn't had a week in over three years where he's scratched four strokes putting. Now, he doesn't need to. He may not need to get to that to win.
Right. But like I said at the top, his roadmap here might be a little bit harder. Right. Because now he's having to fend off guys that are hitting greens and making more 20 footers than him, whereas in the past at a more difficult course.
he is not fending off all of those guys because instead of having 25 footers for birdies, they're chipping for birdie from off the green and trying to get up and down for par. Now, those guys that are such great ball strikers, but maybe worse putters, they have to fend off all of those guys that are going to be hitting more greens and giving themselves more putts this week. So that's,
I just think it's something to keep in mind. The other guys that I think might be interesting here, Kazire, I kind of like. And I know that he's missed the cut in both appearances at Detroit Golf Club and missed three cuts in a row. But hear me out. So I think it's a perfect course for him. Like he can...
He can just get so hot with the putter. And I don't think anyone's going to play him now, which I love because he's missed three cuts in a row. But...
4.1 at the Sony, 3.5 at Phoenix, 3.6 at the Valero, 5.2 at the Valspar, 6.8 at the Byron Nelson, 3.4 at the Memorial. Like he can just really get it going with the putter. And I know it's not in Texas, but I just love him at birdie fest. You put Kazire on a course where it's easier to hit greens and he's just going to have a ton of 20 footers like all
All of his results are really, really, really easy courses. He is number one in this entire field over his last 24 rounds in average strokes gained per round on courses in easy scoring conditions. He's averaging 1.5 strokes on the field.
Per round. And he's seventh in approach and eighth in putting. Fourteenth in opportunities gained. Sixteenth in proximity from 100 to 125. So I think Kazire, I think it's like a perfect fit for Kazire this week. He's exactly the type of player that I'm looking for.
The other guys that I'll mention briefly, and then we'll get out of here. I like Glover. I think Glover's a good play. Depending on ownership, I think Chris Kirk is interesting. Again, these were guys that I think myself and a lot of other people were on earlier in the season. I know that I've taken a huge break from that kind of Tringali, Kirk, Hoffman kind of group position.
Now that they've missed a couple cuts and more people might be off them, that's where I have a little bit more interest in kind of the buyback spot on Kirk. If people kind of lay off Kirk a little bit because, you know, he was he missed a cut at the Travelers, but I don't care. He gained on approach. The ball striking got better and he can putt.
Right. Like I, I trust Chris Kirk at a birdie fest. He gained 3.9 strokes putting at the Sony 6.1 strokes putting at the Valero 2.8, the Memorial. He had that run where he went miscut, miscut 69th miscut at the PGA or yeah, miscut at the PGA or 69th at colonial and kind of lost strokes on approach, but he's kind of trending a little bit better now. So yeah,
I, I think he's a decent play depending on ownership. Again, we'll, we'll have to see if he gets too mushy, then it's probably going to know, be a no for me. And I'll, I'll pivot to guys like a moon, a Munoz, uh, who I like on a course like this. Um,
He makes a ton of birdies and he can get scorching hot with the putter. And Alex Norin, I think is a pretty smart play this week. He has become like someone that you just really want to play on easier courses. He makes a ton of birdies now. And,
And he is just as good, way better actually, at a birdie fest than he is on harder courses. And I used to think Noren was somebody you kind of wanted at grind fest because he's just such a good short game. But he is six in this field and strokes gain total in easy scoring conditions over his last 24. He's averaging 1.2 strokes per round on the field in easy scoring conditions. So I just think it's a really good spot for Noren. Once you get a little bit lower,
I think Vaughn Taylor's a pretty sharp play this week. I'm going to play Vaughn Taylor. I don't think anyone else will. I hope no one else will. He has gained over 3.6 strokes on approach and back-to-back starts. Really good putter. He can just really heat up. He's gained 8.7 strokes putting at the Memorial, 9.2 at the Valspar, 5.8, sorry, 9.8
8.7 at the Vuelo, 9.2 at the Valspar, 5.8 at the Memorial. Um, and he's actually coming off kind of same thing I said with Snedeker where he's coming off these two weeks where he lost strokes putting in his next start, he gained 8.7 strokes putting and 2.4 strokes putting. So Vaughn Taylor's a really good putter and he's coming off two bad putting weeks. So I think it's a really good spot to hop back on Vaughn Taylor. Um,
One at Pebble Beach on POA, whatever. But 24th in opportunities gained. Really, really, really good with his wedges. Like really good at all those proximity distances with his wedges. So I have a ton of interest in Varner. Nick Taylor might be kind of sharp here. Taking a look at Nick Taylor. Taking a look at Mav McNeely. I think there's a good Mav McNeely course there.
Taking a little bit of a look at Ryan armor. Um, he has finished fourth here. I think this is a pretty good spot for Ryan armor. Um, but that's about it. That's about it in terms of the guys that I'm kind of looking at more closely. And I think are pretty good plays, um, this week, Lucas Glover. Did I mention Lucas Glover? I think, I think Lucas Glover makes some sense here as well. Um,
But that'll do it for me, guys. I will be back on Tuesday morning. A couple of things this week. I'm going on Mayo's show this week. So that should be an adventure. Super excited for that. So catch me on Mayo's DraftKings show on Tuesday morning. And then my podcast, my pick show with my buddy Brian Kirshner will be out on
on Tuesday sometimes as well. Best of luck on Sunday at the Travelers. I hope that your Sunday at the Travelers is a little bit more interesting than mine and you have some form of a sweat going whatsoever. My only sweats involve the top 40 market right now. So wishing the best of luck to you at the Travelers and I will talk to you guys on Tuesday.
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