Pebble, LIV Mayakoba Recap & WM Phoenix Open Picks with Jason Sobel
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We talk a lot Pebble Beach, Live My Cobra recap, the state of golf gambling, whether or not Live will embrace gambling and data more. What should we do about the official world golf rankings? Plus Phoenix Open betting board, general golf stuff, general betting stuff. It is a great conversation. So without further ado, let's bring on Jason.

All right. Jason Sobel is here. Action Network. First time on the podcast. I've wanted to have you on for a while. We've talked a little bit in the past, mainly because we're in the same fantasy league, the same season-long fantasy league. I actually think we're playing each other. You're the Orlando Kingsman, right? I am, yeah.

I think we're playing each other this week. We got to battle. We got to battle. Okay. Before we get too far, first of all, thanks for having me on Andy. I appreciate you having me. Secondly, we have made some changes to the fantasy league this year. And what I mean by that is instead of a, a,

Not simplistic point system that was being used previously that you really had to kind of tally up and figure out what we're doing. Now we're just using essentially the money earned each week. But you could have four guys who play really well. You have four guys who are in the top 12 this week. I have the guy who wins. I'm going to make more money than your team's going to make. I'm not sure I love it.

I can't figure out whether I like it either. The other question I was going to ask you about was, and maybe I'm bitter because I had the last pick in the draft, and so I had a bit of a weird spot in the draft order. So I don't really have any superstars, although you could make the case that Justin Thomas was a steal and is about to be back on that level. But I feel like my team's really deep, and

And I feel good about my depth. How do you feel about the fact that it's only four guys every week too? I don't know if I probably didn't read the fine print on that, but now it's only four guys every single week, which I think there's some pros and cons to that as well.

I completely agree. Your roster doesn't need to be as deep. I went for guys. I kind of read the fine print. Doesn't mean you can necessarily find anyone. There's eight people in the league and everyone knows what they're doing. Everyone works in the industry. So you're not going to like uncover some guy in the ninth round that nobody knows about. I tried to find some high upside guys though. I tried to find a couple of guys that like I can throw them in for a non-signature event. And yeah, they might miss the cut, but they have a chance of winning. They have some win equity up there. So

I've got a few of those guys, but then again, if that's number five on the roster and I've got four semis, I won't call them superstars, but semi superstars, big name players, I'm probably not putting the high upside guy even in the lineup to start with because we only have a third of the team that's playing each week. So I don't know. I'm with you. I don't really know kind of what to make of it yet. I'm not really sure what the greatest strategy is, but I'm

I'm three in one. I'm three in one through four weeks. That's good, right? You're three in one. And I had a killer Xander WD this morning for me. I was getting ready to roll out like a Hideki, Xander, JT, maybe...

maybe Corey Connors for the last spot. And now no, now no Xander either, which I. JT is going to win. JT is going to win and you're going to beat me. So I can have four guys in the top 12, you know, just the, the comparison I was just making JT is going to win this week and, and you're going to beat me. It's it's, it's already written. Well, we'll, we'll get to JT later. Cause I think I agree. Oh, I thought that was the end of the pot. I thought, you know, I made that pick. No, I want to talk to you a little bit about pebble first, because I,

You were there. I was in Northern California too. I was about a little Northeaster, Northeast, an hour Northeast and Len, my girlfriend's in medical school in Davis, California. Uh,

And so I was visiting her up, up that weekend, last weekend. And I mean, we didn't have any power on Saturday in Davis, which is more inland than the coast. Like I mentioned, Gale force winds roads were closed. I mean, you were there all week. What was the experience like being there on a week where so much was up in the air with weather? And I have a lot of questions about the whole thing hand God handled, which we can get into. Yeah.

Full disclosure, I left Thursday night. I took a red eye home to Florida on Thursday night. That was always the plan, though. I was coming back Monday and the weather looks bad. I'm going to leave early. That was like I booked it three weeks ahead of time, not knowing what the weather was going to be. That was just the plan. I was there for Sirius XM doing a few radio shows earlier in the week and then just stayed for the first round because I could I could either go back.

first thing Thursday morning or take the red eye back Thursday night. And I wanted to get out there and see some golf on Thursday. So I stayed for the whole day, but yeah, so I wasn't there for the really bad weather. Wasn't there for like you said, power going out and debris all over the streets at some point, Andy. And I get that there are questions right now. I think my biggest question was why on Sunday evening, uh,

They decided to call it at that point where it could have been Sunday morning. It could have been Monday morning, but it was like this weird sort of nebulous time for them to just say, all right, you know what? That's enough. We're going to call the tournament now. That said, and I saw a lot of social media talk about this over the last few days, but

I at some point leave it to the people whose job it is to run golf tournaments and work with the PGA Tour and figure these things out. I know in today's world, everyone thinks they're smarter than everybody else and everyone wants to go. Why would they do that? They've got to play on two.

Tuesday or they've got to figure this out. Everyone wants to, you know, sound like they know more. I will leave it in the hands of the folks that do this on a weekly basis and understand things. And I haven't heard a great explanation for some of it, but I know that, I mean, it was, the ground was saturated out there when I was there walking around Wednesday and Thursday. I can only imagine.

how wet it is now, and I think it became a safety issue without power in some places around there and power lines down in the streets and things like that. I just think that it wasn't quite worth it for them. I was hoping, though, that they would do the same thing they did back in 98, which is play a few rounds, weather delay, and then come back in August.

which I really would have enjoyed the PGA tour telling 80 players like, Hey, let's do a random Monday in August before the playoffs. And you guys have to come back here. Well, I think it was a bit telling that there was a shelter in place warning in the city of Carmel before they called the actual tournament. So I think as soon as,

Like the mayor of Carmel said, don't leave your homes. I think it was a pretty safe bet that we weren't going to get any golf on Sunday, which I think is unfortunate. And I talked about this a little bit in the podcast I did before the tournament. But in my opinion, Pebble Beach is maybe the biggest asset. Pebble Beach, Riviera, Memorial, San

Maybe the biggest, I guess, TPC Sawgrass as well absolutely deserves to be in that category, but probably the biggest asset that the PGA Tour has in their arsenal. And I think in this day where everyone is so hyper-focused on...

competition and comparing with to the PGA tour. And every single thing that happens in golf nowadays has to be viewed through the microcosm of, was this a win for the PGA tour or a win for live? I just think not getting a full tournament at pebble beach when you had Ludwig potentially his coming out party, Scotty Sheffler in the mix as well.

was just a net loss for golf fans. And now maybe live was the beneficiary. Maybe live fans were the beneficiary of that. And that's a different discussion. But I think that the concept of get all the best players to pebble beach was long overdue. And I hope we continue to get that in the future.

Think about what they did over a year ago, which was the decision to flip the Farmers Insurance Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am so that Pebble would have the spotlight in between the dark week, in between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. I mean, that is like...

traditionally been a plush spot, usually for the event at Torrey Pines, especially going back to the days when Tiger Woods was in his prime and he was winning every year. And that would be like sort of the start of golf. So everyone kind of has their own start of golf season. You know, those of us who are very much entrenched in the game would say Kapalua, you know, it starts when they start. Other people say, well, it doesn't start until the spring when I see the Masters. But for a lot of people out there, it would start the week

okay, I've got no football on TV. What can I watch on Sunday afternoon? They cleared the schedule of Torrey Pines so that they could have the best of the best on the PGA Tour playing at Pebble. And then this happens. I mean, it's just really unfortunate luck for them. I know there's a big give and take having the celebs, essentially only a handful of celebs in the field this year. None of the celebs and the amateurs playing on the weekend, which,

sort of got mixed reviews at least from the people on site who are involved in this uh the players and the fans and the the locals who are going to the tournament i think a lot of them i think a lot of them like it i think the majority of the golf audience is watching on tv and probably doesn't like it as much as those who are on hand and i i think that's actually something i

I got into the other day, which we can get into if you want to, but I think the PGA Tour needs to, and really all professional golf needs to start prioritizing the 99.9% majority that views professional golf just through a box in their living room or just through a screen on their phone and doesn't attend the events. And I think that there are too many

executives, officials, players, tournament directors who are so into the game and their week in, week out,

And don't sort of understand that the majority of the people who are consuming your product on a weekly basis aren't there and are never going to be there. And so I think they have to start prioritizing what it looks like on TV, what it looks like streaming for the masses. Anyway, I'm going off on a little tangent there. But yes, this was – I mean, if we're going to count things in wins and losses –

The weather was a big loss for the PGA Tour. I thought Saturday was great. Wyndham Clark shoots 60. A lot of excitement out there. A leaderboard of, if not the biggest names, at least some exciting young names. Then Sunday was, hey, let's clear out for Liv, which is the last thing the PGA Tour ever wanted to do. And Liv actually had a pretty good event. Joaquin Neiman wins in four holes. They got lights from the scoreboard lighting up the last green, and he beats Sergio Garcia.

So that, that was what I was going to ask you next is your first Sunday for a, uh, for PGA tour golf. I mean, it's, we're not going to get too many of these in the future. I know football's ending, but this felt like obviously live could not drawn up this situation any better. So you have no PGA tour golf to worry about it anymore on Sunday. How much of, how much of live did you get an opportunity to take in of that final round at my Coba? Uh,

I had some other things going on. I mean, I would have watched the entire PGA tour final round quite honestly on Sunday, just because I had some, some family stuff hung out with friends a little bit, just had some other things, but I did watch the end of live and,

I love the fact that I'm going to have to go back and preface what I'm about to say afterwards. But I love the fact that at least we're starting to talk about live a little bit in terms of the golf. Right. Because that's the one thing that's gotten me over the last two years that, all right, so...

We've got live and everyone's kind of up and I, I like the PGA tour. I like live. I think this is better. I think that's better. No, it's actually like watching the golf, even the, uh, the live bot quote unquote, Twitter accounts who are out there. Like they never even tweet about the golf. They just tweet about like the official world golf rankings and how angry they are.

The one question I always want to ask them is like, you know, hey, what do you think of Louis Oosthuizen in Thailand last year? Like something, you know, something about the golf that I guarantee they're not actually watching. But I like to look, I love professional golf. This is what I do. I've been doing this for 20 years now and I love the game and I'd love to watch some of the best players without feeling like I'm not supposed to be watching them. And so I want to preface all this for those who, you know,

haven't listened to what I've done over the last two, two and a half years. Yes, there is more to it than this. There is a lot of tumultuousness in the game right now, so much divisiveness in the game. And I went on a little rant on my PGA Tour radio show today saying that, look, the guys on Live, not just this week, but all together, they're winners. They're winners because they're

They got the bag. You know, those guys chose to play professional golf for a living. They worked hard at it. And someone has given them an eight or nine figure salary where they are just raking it in and making lots and lots of money to play golf and playing fewer events than they were previously. They win. The guys on the PGA Tour, they win because the trickle down effect is

The PGA tour is paying them more. I'm not telling you anything you don't know, but everyone's, everyone's getting richer. Everyone's getting fatter. Everyone's getting more points. Everyone's feeling better about everything except for the fans. And I can't tell you how many fans out there.

that I know, guys I play golf with on a regular basis are like, I don't know. I kind of like some of the guys on the tour. I kind of like some of the guys on live. I don't really know who's where. And so I'm just not going to watch any of it. And it's turning people off. The greed, the arrogance in the game right now at the highest level is turning people away from the game to the point where they're going to tune in for the major championships and they're just not going to care about anything else. And I get the sense that

Whether it's the Rory's and Jordan Spieth's, whether it's the John Rahm's and Phil Mickelson's on the other side, whether it's Jay Monahan, whether it's Greg Norman, I get the sense that they either don't realize it, don't understand it, or just don't care. And I'm not even sure which one is worse.

I agree with you on, on a lot of that. I think that cause I caught a little bit of it myself, not just on Sunday. I didn't, to be honest with you, I actually didn't watch much on Sunday. I kind of had it on a second screen though, for the first two days at Pebble beach. And I'm like you, I, I, I was actually fairly excited to see John Rom on live for the first time.

Not just because he's a historically great player. I mean, he has the opportunity. What does legacy mean anymore in a fractured golf world? But I mean, I'm a bit of the golf history nerd. And like, we're talking about a guy that has the opportunity to go down as one of the 12 to 15 best golfers of all time. I'm fascinated to see what this move to a breakaway league, completely devoid of context does to one of the greatest golfers of all time. Right. And I think,

The issue that I had a little bit with live was the context issue right now. The, the main major difference for me between PGA tour and live is I can get, and I'm curious on your thoughts as this as well. Cause I know you're, uh, you're big into the gambling space as well and have been in this PGA tour gambling space, golf gambling space far longer than I have.

On the PGA tour, I cover it because I have actionable info on it. Right. And so my job for odds checker and rump your sports and golf digest is to, and this podcast is to give out information, give out my plays, talk to people in the discord about gambling. And the only reason why I feel comfortable and confident doing that chase is because I am good at interpreting strokes, gain data, uh,

I know how I know all of these PGA tour courses. Cause now I have years of breaking them down. I have data on these courses. I have experience on these courses. And so that's what I cover. That's what golf digest pays me to cover. That's what my pot. I get paid on my podcast to talk about. That's what I do for run peer sports. That's what you do. That's what you do. The majority of your content for action network too. Now,

It's not that the competition for me necessarily is worse on live. Now they're amazing players on live. It's not even that there's music necessarily in the background. Like I could get over that. It's not the broadcast. Some of it's a little hokey and weird, but I can get over, I can get over all that stuff too. The problem is, is that, um,

I still have no concept or ability of where all of the demographic that I feel like they should be playing to, right? Like the 20, 30 year olds with disposable income, the barstow crowd, like all those people that.

Love golf, love betting on golf, love playing daily fantasy. I've been so confused and I'm sure there are smart people in the live room that would give me a ton of rebuttals of why it hasn't been possible, but I've been so confused about

this resistance of investment in shot tracker. I've been so confused about this resistance of investment in leaning super hard into gambling in the broadcast that feels like so much of a part of their brand. And so I'm left sitting there with like, yeah, I can appreciate this on a second screen. Like I enjoy watching John Rom hit golf shots, but I'm going to have a hard time

really taking this thing seriously in my line of work from a coverage standpoint until I have a little bit more actionable info that I could provide to people that follow me for my info. So yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes. Okay. I had...

A conversation recently with a couple of live executives, not Greg Norman, not Yasser, but, you know, guys that you probably wouldn't even know if I said their names. But I gave them the unsolicited suggestion that you need to get

the betting community involved here. Yes. You need to, people make, the PGA Tour is, it took them 50 years to figure this out, but they figured out in the last couple of years that when somebody makes an investment in your product, all of a sudden they remain engaged for the rest of the week. Whether you're putting $5 on a long shot to win, whether you're, you know, betting, you know,

$200,000 in a weekend. Once you have that personal investment, you are going to pay more attention to the product. I told these executives, until you have the data and analytics and information that we as gamblers need, we are not going to invest in the product. And so we won't be as engaged as we need to be in it as you want us to be. They seem to understand that. I've gone as far as to say and suggest that

Essentially anything that people don't necessarily like about the PGA Tour, Liv should be doing the opposite of that. You think the PGA Tour plays too slow? Liv should have a shot clock. You think the PGA Tour should have a match play event they got rid of last year?

The day after the match play, it was announced that the match play wouldn't be on the schedule anymore. If I was a live executive, I would have sent out a press release saying, we're having a match play event. We don't know when or where yet. We'll figure it out later. But we're going to do anything that we think they're doing wrong, and we're going to do the other side of that. And so part of that is I've suggested to them not only do lean in on gambling and try to get the gambling and betting community involved and invested, but

But I've gone as far as to say, hey, if you're going to have a shotgun start after the first six holes, I want to interview players for five or 10 minutes, tell them their odds, maybe give them a stipend where they're betting against each other. I mean, let's if we're going to do this, let's go all in and do this. I completely agree. Just just to add one more thing. I've been saying this for a long time.

They should be doing this with the golf courses that they go to, right? Like half, how many golf courses on the PGA tour have no personality, right? Like, why aren't they going to tobacco road and Wolf Creek and like tricking these golf courses up to a thousand.

that's a little different because the courses don't necessarily want they're they're paying money to get to the courses if you if you follow the money here i believe live has made a sizable investment in some uh in in the ownership of some of these courses which is how they're getting to play some of those golf courses so there there's there's some behind the scenes stuff that's i i

I think more sensible than just us as fans going, hey, why don't you go play band in dunes? That seems awesome. That would be really fun to watch on TV. Go to Pine Valley. That would be really cool. Like, yes, it would be cool, but I think if you kind of follow where the paper trail is going here, you'd probably understand why and when they're going to certain places. But, yeah, lean into that stuff. Do different things. Think outside the box. And for me right now, they're not doing nearly enough of that. They have created a golf league that –

All right, so it's 54 holes instead of 72, and they wear shorts instead of pants, but it's not as different as it needs to be. If you're going to be different than the PGA Tour and say, we're younger, we're cooler, we're quote-unquote louder than the PGA Tour, whatever that means, then go be louder. Go buy into that brand and go be that. I have said, Andy, that

I I'm okay with music. I'm okay with shotgun. So I actually think the shotgun starts kind of cool for the first two days. I would love to see it like, all right, Sunday or Saturday, whatever the final round is going to be. All right, now let's get serious. We're gonna turn the music off. We're gonna be in T times and we're going to play like this. Like it's a serious final round. Um,

but you want to have a member guest for the first two days. I'm all in. I had a really good friend, uh, went with a couple of his coworkers to my Acoba last week. They play in the pro-am. They had dinner with the majestics. They hung out for the week and they're like, it was awesome. We had a great time. I do think that there's something to be said about that being perhaps a better onsite product than the PGA tour right now. Um,

Whereas, you know, if you're a PGA Tour fan, you get a ticket, you walk around, you have a couple of drinks, you have a hot dog, you're like, cool, I watched a lot of good players. I don't know that you're necessarily getting the

The full return on investment that you're putting into it. But I don't know that the live TV product is necessarily anywhere close to what the PGA Tour is right now. And I don't know if the the overall like branding of it is there yet. If I were them, I'd go like, hey, we're the renegades of golf. Let's go be renegade. Let's go figure out some different stuff to do.

Last question on this, but you got me thinking, and then I promise we'll get to Phoenix in a second. But do you think, because you do a lot of this too, do you think that if Liv did something

get a lot uh maybe they maybe this is a looks like a partnership with draft kings right or they start doing more daily fantasy contests or they do some sort of partnership with a bigger sports book lean more into gambling do the type of thing that we have been begging and asking for them to do in the gambling community do you think there's a universe where like

at Action Network, your bosses are to you like, hey, it's Jon Rahm this week and Tyrell Hatton and Cameron Smith and Brooks Koepka, TPC Las Vegas. Now that we have odds on this and daily fantasy contests, and it seems like they're leaning more into gambling and say the PGA Tours in Detroit this week for the Rocket Mortgage or John Deere headline by Brendan Todd. Do you think that

Like we would cover live. Do you think that live hat would have enough momentum at that point for us to say, look, we're going to put out content where the best players are. Right. And if there's a week where the best players are on live and you can gamble on it and bet on it, let's cover that. Or do you still think that?

The wall that they have to climb for the average better and watcher of golf is far too great in the interim. And even if we get the hypothetical example that I just gave you of like a live event versus golf,

a bottom rung PGA tour event, a John Deere rocket mortgage, one of those dog days of the summer event. Do you think that we're overvaluing our, our, our reach in the gambling community or, or do you think maybe there's some momentum there building? So we've had these conversations internally. I do think that that's,

Certainly a possibility moving forward. By the way, Liv signed with U.S. Integrity just a couple of weeks ago. It would not surprise me whatsoever to see Liv with an official betting operator at some point in the not-too-distant future. I know the PGA Tour has five or six of them, which has been a bit of a messy situation. And a lot of the questions we ask about, why don't they do this and why don't they do that? Some of that stems from having too many cooks in the kitchen there. And so I wonder if one or two of those

is not an official betting operator before too long and maybe says, hey, we like golf, though. We want to be involved and we want to make the investment in this space. And maybe they make a partnership with Liv. Personally, I've always believed that we live in a business of supply and demand.

And this is the answer that I used to give when 15 years ago, 90% of the content was about Tiger Woods. Everyone would go, why are you guys writing so much about Tiger? And I'd say, well, here's the list of the 50 highest traffic stories that we wrote last year. And 48 of them are Tiger Woods related. That's why. You guys read the Tiger content, so we will keep producing the Tiger content. For me, it's about...

look, if tomorrow it came out that there are 50% more tickets on live Las Vegas this week than there are for the WM Phoenix open, I would go, all right, well, we've got to probably change our strategy and reverse the trend a little bit, but it hasn't happened yet until it does happen.

I'm going to put my supply where the demand is. And if the demands for the PGA Tour overlive, I'm going to write more on the PGA Tour. If that changes, I'm not going to say, nope, I like the PGA Tour. I'm loyal. I'm pledging my fealty to the PGA Tour. And I'm not going to write about live. No, I'm going to go, well, okay, now the demand is for live. I will supply that content.

I agree with you completely. And I'm so curious to be honest too. Like, I think it's such a fool's errand guessing at this point where it's going to go. But I think for the first time, like,

Just perusing through Twitter on Sunday, it seemed like Liv had everybody's attention. It seemed like they had the center stage. And I'm so curious to see if they're able to parlay this into, you know, they're playing again this week in Las Vegas, going head to head with, see my transition here, going head to head with

Probably the most distinctive like personality event on the PGA tour. Would you say, I mean, you've gone to Phoenix way more. I've never been to this event before, but when I think of like, what are the events on the PGA tour that have an identity? Probably Phoenix is the number one that comes up in my mind. No doubt. No doubt. First of all, by the way, just to go back just a second, would you like me to fix golf for you in about 30 seconds? Please. I can do it.

This is easy. Quite honestly. I mean, tell me why this doesn't work. All right. PGA Tour, you get January through August. Your season ends in August. Live, you get September through December. If there are PGA Tour players who would like to play on live, they can sign them to play on live or they can choose to take four months off.

and stay home. If live players would like to play on the PGA Tour, they're more than welcome to. You can play between January and August. But if you're like, man, I just got $60 million, I'm cool. You can take the first eight months of the year off and just play your live events. Tell me how that doesn't work for everybody involved. Okay. One question. Under this new golf ecosystem, do live players get official World Golf ranking points?

Sure. Why not? I hear it. You know what? The reason, the reason why I, the reason why that was the first thing that came to mind is because I'm trying to think in my mind what players would do. And so I'm, I'm trying to, I'm trying to conceptualize like if live was paying more money and had a chiller schedule, uh,

That isn't built around. Cause I assume the major schedule is the same under this new golf ecosystem. Then what's the incentive to play on the PGA tour? I don't know. Maybe you just like your favorite golf courses, Riv and you really miss playing there and your books kept going. You're like, I'm not going to sit home for eight months. I want to go play golf. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's certainly part of it. I was going to make a point here. Now I lost my train of thought. I was going to say, yeah,

I lost it. It was going to be good though. We can come back to it. Let me know. Let me know if you, if you, I got it. I got it. We can, we can edit, right? If not, everyone's listening to us. Think you're on the pod, but the best thing about the world ranking points that I heard was about 15, 16 months ago during the RSM classic at the end of,

We had Davis Love III, who, of course, is the host of the RSM, had him on our radio show. And this is like sort of the height of all the official World Golf Ranking talk. And, I mean, we're getting callers lighting up the phone lines like, yeah, they should get ranking points because they're playing golf. And, no, they left. They knew what they were in for. And still, I mean –

Today, we still have the same conversation after Joaquin Neiman said yesterday in his first words after winning, well, I'm still not in the majors because he doesn't have the world ranking points. Davis Love III came on with us and we said, all right, hot topic. Everyone's talking about these ranking points. What do you think? Should they get them? Should they not? Should they get, you know, should they be redistributed? Should they be, you know, just partial points? What should it be? And he goes, oh, I would just don't get rid of the world ranking. And it was like, okay.

Like just mind blown. Like, wait a second. Yeah. Why are we ranking things like that? Why care? Who cares if, you know, if John Rahm is number three in the world or number six in the world, we know he's really, really good. It doesn't matter how we rank him as far as qualifications for the majors. Well, just let them all decide, right? Like they should all be their own. Yeah. They should all be their own governing bodies and just let the majors decide if the majors want to say no to live, then make, make,

let the majors do that if the pga wants to handle it differently than them they're all their own governing bodies right and that's the only use for the official world golf ranking is

qualifying for majors. The Masters is literally an invitational. They can invite me and you to play in it if they'd like to. I am an advocate for, and we've seen it in the past, they always have one, two, maybe three sponsor exemptions, or I guess tournament exemptions for the major championships. Tiger this year is not qualified for the U.S. Open. I have a feeling the USGA might give him an exemption to go play at Pinehurst if he wants to.

Why not expand that to 15 exemptions for each major championship? And then you can let in the Joaquin Neimans. And, you know, if you want to give like, okay, Lee Westwood once played well at this course, we'll give him one. Some of the other live players, maybe you identify some young talent overseas. If you say, hey, there's an 18 year old, we're going to introduce him to the world this week by letting him play in the open championship, whatever it might be.

have a different qualification process and leave yourself open to making those decisions yourself. Whether you're Augusta or the USGA, the RNA, the PGA of America, you can make those decisions on your own and say, look, this guy's really good. He's ranked 60th in the world, but he should be top 20 because he's playing here. We want him in our tournament because we want the best possible field that we can get. And I just think that would make so much sense. And the first one to do it

would endear themselves to the entire golf industry and all the golf fans out there because they understand that it would make sense. I think so too. I, I, I honestly, when you said that, I thought when you first said Davis love, I thought you were going to go into, cause he's been very, very anti live in the past, but it does. I do think about it a lot about like,

We've actually surpassed in the data community, the relevance of the official world golf rankings anyway, with data golf, right? Like you can, that's a way better measurement of who the best golfers in the world are anyway. So, you know, there, there's so many sports that do this too, where I not a massive tennis guy. So I don't, I don't want to butcher this and get this incorrectly, but I,

There's no overall governing body over Wimbledon, US Open, Australian Open. Are all the tennis majors just in charge of how players get into each of the tennis majors? I think so. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a whole other rabbit. Yeah, it's a whole other rabbit, Debra. Let's get back to Phoenix.

if, if Andy, if they said tomorrow that we're not going to have an AP ranking for college hoops anymore, I think a lot of people go like, wait, but is, is UConn or Purdue number one is UNC up there. Are they in the top five? You go, how are we going to figure it out? Well, we're going to have this big tournament at the end of the season and whoever wins, that seems like they would be the number one team. Just, I feel like it's, it's almost like a collective impatience from the public to be like, I,

want to know who's where I want to rank things.

cares. I don't care where things are ranked. I don't know. I see stuff on my phone all the time, like the 100 best albums of all time. I'm like, you know what? If you have my favorite album at 63rd, it doesn't mean I'm wrong. It just means I have a different viewpoint than you. And so I feel the same way about this. I might think Jon Rahm's the best player in the world right now, but he's not ranked number one. Am I wrong? No, not necessarily. It just means the algorithm's not in my favor.

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Let's talk about Phoenix, my friend. Let's get on to probably a golf course. You know a lot more intimately than I do. You've been going to this event. How many times have you been to Phoenix? I would say I've covered this event 15 of the last 20 years.

Okay. So real quick, big picture on the golf course in the tournament before we get into the odds board. But when you think about this golf course over the years, the things that you've seen, the things that you've observed, obviously there is a different atmospheric element to this tournament. I was thinking about, I was thinking about it this morning and it's like,

Why is this the one golf course, the one tournament on the PGA tour outside of the majors that Brooks Koepka has really had success at. And you can find the quotes and he talks about like, I actually feel engaged. Like sometimes I find myself spacing out playing a regular PGA tour set up without a ton of fans. And it doesn't, it doesn't suck me in and have that energy that maybe a major championship does. And Phoenix, uh,

while not entirely synonymous with that, it captures some of that energy in its own way. Right. And I think maybe that's why you see somebody like, why is Justin Thomas been so good in Phoenix? Does he fit the course of cozy fits of course, but like watch Justin Thomas in a Ryder cup, like that's the type of stuff that gets him up here. So I think we have a fun

it's a fun week in the gambling community because a, we could break down the golf course till we're blue in the face. But then there's also this like unquantifiable narrative of, of who is the guy that you could see walking down the 16th hole, taking his shirt off while everyone's chugging beers, you know, coming through in the clutch on Sunday afternoon. It's the players that are

calm and confident and maybe even a little cocky playing in front of big crowds. It's guys who...

traditionally loved team sports who were like, man, I would have loved to be an NFL or an NBA player in that arena with fans screaming my name and yelling against me and booing me. Like it's the guys who thrive in that environment. Now you go back and look at the list. Brooks Koepka certainly fits that bill. Justin Thomas doesn't one, but that's going to happen in a few days possibly. And he's played really well at this, uh,

golf tournament in the past, uh, seven finishes of 17th or better in nine starts. Ricky Fowler, uh, ate it up when they were all five years ago, chanting big Dick Rick, when he was coming down the stretch and he absolutely loved it. I have absolutely no explanation for Webb Simpson and how that happened over Tony Finau. Cause Tony embodies everything that you would think a Phoenix open type of player is. And Webb Simpson is the exact opposite. All I can think of is that, uh,

perhaps everyone else went to too many late night concerts of the birds nest that week. And the only guys left were, uh, Webb and Tony Scottie Shuffler is just, I don't know if Scottie's an outlier. He's just, he's just really good. And he's going to win at a place that suits his game. So I don't know if Scottie's necessarily a show him off guy, but Phil for years played really well in this one. Uh,

You know, J.B. Holmes going back and won twice. He's the guy I like to show off, big long ball hitter back in the day. So, yeah, I'm looking at guys that have a little swagger this week, guys that, you know, like showing off. And at the top of the list, you've made many allusions to Justin. So I here's.

here was my, I will walk you through my brief thought process on Justin Thomas and, and hopefully you are able to make me feel a little bit better about this. So Xander Shoffley withdraws this morning and,

And I hadn't, I had a couple of bats down in the 60, you know, 60 plus range, some long shots. I saw these, okay. These odds on JT and Homa and speed and all of these guys, they're going to crater. Let me walk in the best that I can have right now on Justin Thomas, which at the time was 11. So I kind of, I liked Justin Thomas a lot, certainly more than I liked Homa burn speed. He was my favorite of those, even though, um,

you know, you're kind of playing top of market. You weren't really getting the number you would hope for still on, on, on Justin Thomas at this point, even though he has been playing excellent golf this year. So I kind of panicked that locked in Justin Thomas at 11 to one. And I feel good about that. Other than the fact that I wish it was maybe a 14 or 16 still. My only concern, Jason, is that I was looking at the weather and,

This week, and it seems like Orlando has got our sorry, you're in Orlando. Scottsdale has gotten a ton of uncharacteristically far more rain than it has in the past. It's going to be a softer, more receptive golf course.

And I think that is going to make this play more so like an Amex than a firm and fast baked out TPC Scottsdale that I would have seen Scotty Sheffler and JT having their most extreme advantage on. And what's the biggest concern with Scottsdale?

JT right now is it's always going to be the putter. So I don't want as a JT ticket holder, I don't want more receptive greens. Like I don't want more putting variants. I don't want to hire greens and regulation presents. So I'm with you on JT, but that's my only concern is do we get a more receptive golf course that brings more

less good ball strikers back into play this week. I get that. I think this course drains really, really well. Good. I'm already feeling better. It's supposed to get some rain. Yeah. It's supposed to get some rain a little bit more later in the week, but this was not like pebble beach rain. Like we got last week. It's it's in the desert. It's not going to pour. I, I would be very surprised if it's like soggy wet, you know, like they're, they have to play ball in hand one day or something like that. I just, I don't see that happening this week. In fact, I,

I'm not sure that, like I said, I've been there 15 times probably. I'm not sure that I even remember anything.

It ever having a drop of rain out there. It gets a little cool in the mornings, cool at nights. That's about the only weather you get really coming in. Might get a beer shower every once in a while. And that's the only precipitation coming out of the sky, but well, you got the, I went back and I went back and luck just wanted to, cause I don't know if you were there this year and remember this, but if you remember, this is why I got concerned about it. If you remember the 2013 fail 28 under year, uh,

That was the last year that the golf course was softer.

That the year Phil opened up with essentially 59 and a half, he lipped out. Yeah. And he was, and he shot 28 under that year on a softer golf course. And then every single year in the past decade, it's been between 14 and 19 under par. So the only thing I'm concerned about Jason is are we do potentially for a 28 under year, which makes me a little bit, can JT's putter keep up under, under that? I,

I totally understand that. He was the first guy that I looked at, even before the odds. I guess the odds have been out for a little bit just because of the drafting's deal with the tour. But he was the first name that I was thinking, like, JT always plays well there. The convergence that we always talk about, recent form, course history, he's got everything. Look, real talk, and I don't know if this is

The right way to play it, the wrong way to play it. I'm sure people listening are like, oh, Sobley, you're an idiot. I've got two different books. In one of my books, I'm well up in that book, and the account's looking nice. And so I bet JT at plus 10.50 in that book thinking, all right, you know what? I can afford to like...

put a decent number on JT this week and not need that huge ROI coming back. The other book, not as good in that one. Let's try to play the longer shots in that one. I'm not necessarily going all the way to the bottom of the list this week, but there's some guys that I like starting at

30, 40 to one that I will play moving down the list a little bit and I'll save it for that one again. Is that the right way to do it? Is that the wrong way to do it? I don't know. I, there's one thing, you know, this is just betting theory, not necessarily about this week, but if you go by a driver, Andy, you're,

Most likely, I hope you're not just going to go into a golfer's warehouse type place, grab one off the rack. Looks pretty good. And walk out the store after you buy it. You're going to go get fitted for it. You're going to figure out the right shaft. You're going to figure out exactly which club fits you. The one that you're going to hit the best. I feel like in our industry, it's time for customization for betters.

Because I think that too often you and I and everyone in the industry will do shows where we go, I like JT. And everyone goes, okay, well, you like JT. I feel like we have to customize this for there. There are betters out there say, you know what?

It's not worth it for me. I don't bet enough. It's not worth it for me to take a guy who's 10 to one because I'm not getting as much return on that investment. So I just want to play a couple of long shots, see if I get a lottery ticket. Great. There are others who are, I'm betting a lot of money every week, whether it's a professional or just a guy that just bets a lot and says, I don't necessarily want those long shot plays, but I want something where I'm going to get

I'm going to make a 10% profit every week and keep that train going. We should not treat those two people the same way. And I feel like too often in our industry, we do that. We just sort of lump everyone in. Hey, do you like this guy? Yup, I like him. All right, let's bet him. And I do think that there are such different types of bettors out there that we need to collectively do a better job of catering to everybody. I agree. That's why I tried to start to do more...

I haven't been huge into the matchups until recently. I've always been a top 20, top 5, top 40 guy. Actually, I think it's a pretty exploitable market too. But I think it depends on the tournament, right? There's been a lot of weeks where I've struggled with... I don't know. I mean, you've been doing this...

longer than I have. Have you noticed like a bit of a deterioration in what seems like fair in the outright market? Like, and, and I, and I, I, yeah. And, and what's so confusing to me is, and I listen, maybe last week shouldn't be viewed in the same as the first couple of weeks. Cause I was lucky enough to be on Wyndham at 90 to one. I know a bunch of my followers followed me on that. You were on Wyndham at nine. So maybe they got hurt a little bit last week, but

God, don't you think they had to make a killing on the first month of golf and for them to drop that, you know, back in the day, it felt like if Scotty, if they're going to put Scotty at five to one, that's,

Let's just start the next guy at 12, right? Can we just start him at 12? And it feels like they're getting away with murder on some of these. Even the long shots market, look at the master's market right now. You get 12 guys under 25 to one. I know that'll reset, but it's like taking the futures betting aspect completely out of it. Here's the one thing I've never understood. What?

Why wouldn't a, maybe a smaller book, maybe a book that doesn't do the handle of a draft Kings or a fan duel or one of those, but why wouldn't those books? I look, this is a business. I know there's, there's licenses. I know they can't just kind of go off on their own, but,

hey we're gonna have everyone essentially like two points higher two points longer yeah than they are in all the other books and if you're a golf better and you're not betting with our book you're probably doing it wrong because you're cheating yourself if i was consulting with some some book out there i would absolutely keep like because you're not gonna get hit i mean you're not gonna get like you'll still probably win the house will still win yeah

But now we're taking in a much larger market share because we've got Jordan Spieth at 22 to one instead of 20 to one. Everyone else has him at 20. If you like him, you have to come to our book because our book has the best number. Why wouldn't you do that on a regular basis with more of the big names? I know some of them will boost odds on certain players here and there. They do things like that. But I'm talking about across the board, just having...

better odds than anybody else, and either forcing the hands of the other books to essentially fall in line with you or forcing the hands of the betters to all just start using your service instead of everybody else's.

It's our next business idea. Andy and Jason's just best golf odds. Just Venmo us and we'll be in business. There we go. Probably make more money on that side of it than the side that we're currently on. Okay. All right. We got to get out of here soon. So talk to me about a couple of guys a little bit farther down the board. We both have consensus on JT at the top. Anyone 30 plus in the 30 to 100 range, give me a guy or two, maybe a couple of names that have your attention a little bit farther down the board.

Absolutely. I'm clicking over to my preview that I wrote for Action Network today. Ben Ahn made a lot of sense at 50 to 1. He's gotten much shorter. He's between 30 and 40. Again, some of that is him getting bet down. Some of that is I wrote this on Sunday evening before Victor Hovland and Xander Shoffley withdrew from the golf tournament. So a lot of the numbers in my preview this week look a lot better than you can get right now. The second guy on my list that I always do an out

Outright winner with shorter odds and outright winner with longer odds, just because again, it's that trying to cater to two different types of betters. Thomas Dietry,

24 hours ago, you and I are taping this at 8 o'clock Eastern on Monday evening. 24 hours ago, you could have got Thomas Dietry at 150-1 at DraftKings. That is a massive number for a guy who's playing some really good golf right now. It's been cut in half, but I still think that 75-1 is not a terrible number. Figala opened at 40-1. I think he's somewhere closer to 40.

30 right now, but I do like him. Just a couple other names real quick here of guys of different kind of values here. Adam Shank is a guy that I could see playing well. Billy Horschel has a nice track record at this one. Bo Hosler is a horse that I just keep riding more on DFS and some props, but at some point he's going to win a golf tournament.

Kevin Yu, we all know the data and analytics. Kevin Yu is a ball-striking god, and so he's a guy that lives in Scottsdale, went to Arizona State, so I can see him having a really nice week as well. The only names that I'll add, I'm with you on a lot of those. The only names that I will add is this range of...

like 50 to 70 in the odds boards is really fascinating to me. You already throw out Bo Hossler, but now you have guys like Eric Cole available back at 50 to one, right? How quickly we forget about Corey Connors. Who's like, this is kind of a perfect Corey Connors golf course. Like in terms of,

Him being such an elite middle iron player and such like a accurate overall total driver of the ball, somebody that always gained strokes off the tee, but doesn't necessarily need to do it with distance. If we believe in the stickiness of course, history and the fact that like six, 60% of Phoenix opens over the last decade have been won by three guys, right? Like,

Phoenix is undeniably kind to the players that have played well in the past year. Well, you get a decade 60 to one. I know that he's all over the place right now. I, I, I was at Torrey Pines and I saw him at Torrey pie. I followed him a decent bit at Torrey Pines and,

the signs are there, right? It's just, you're either going to, he's going to finish first or, or dead last potentially. Hideki is no fly zone for me right now. Those things can change in a hurry. But I am just, I've got burned by Hideki. It's,

too often you and I started this podcast talking about our fantasy league from last year I got into the final and in the final with a six-man lineup we go to the BMW championship and Hideki withdraws I think either before the first round or middle first round um and I get zero points from him I know we're not supposed to to take what we've gotten and take our our losses from guys and carry them with us but Hideki's just still on that no play list for me uh

And again, that can change. Corey Connors, the guy, you know, that I had as my favorite play at both Kapalua, which didn't totally suit him right. But my theory at the time was, I think he's going to win. I think he's going to win something fairly big. And I think it's going to happen pretty soon. And I didn't want to be off of it when it did happen. I really liked him at the Sony where he's played well and he didn't have the greatest week there. But I do think

that Corey Connors, and I wrote in both of those previews those weeks and talked about it, that he's a guy that I think is going to win maybe not a major championship, but something bigger than a Valero Texas Open in the very near future. And I don't want to not be on it when it happens. So yeah, I'm probably with you on Connors. What do you think's a better bet right now? Fowler or Hideki or Adam Scott? Fowler? What about Adam Scott?

I can't imagine. It's still, I was hanging out with my Aussie colleague, Ben Everill, who I do a podcast with over at Action this whole past week. And we were talking about Adam. We ran into Adam at one point. The fact he is still out, not just playing golf, but like playing a lot of golf. He's really good at pebble beach. I would have thought Adam Scott,

Not only wasn't playing much golf, but like, wouldn't like no press release, no, like talking to reporters, just you'd go three months and be like, wait a second. Has anyone seen Adam Scott? And like, he just got a, I surfing down the Bahamas or something. Like you just wouldn't see him at all. I can't believe he's playing this much golf. He's on the policy board. He's really involved. He's going to hate it this week. I,

I have not looked at his record here. I don't know. He might have a decent record in Phoenix, but... Nothing much, really. He's played 38th here one time. Okay. Like, I can't imagine that Adam Scott is going to enjoy himself in Phoenix. This is the opposite of everything that Adam Scott likes in the world. And so he's not going to have a good week. Ricky Fowler, I know he's not playing well right now, but Ricky sort of puffs out his chest every time he steps on TBC Scottsdale and starts playing better golf. Yeah, I feel like...

Akshay too, in this range at 71. Are you, are you long-term buyer on Akshay? Very much. So spoke with a few players the other day who were raving about his ability to work the ball both ways. Yeah. They said like, like nobody else, you know, it doesn't mean he's the best ball striker. It doesn't mean he's going to win more than anybody else, but he's,

It was like, hey, if you got, you know, you want to hit a cut on one hole and cut it 30 yards and the next hole you want to draw it 30 yards. Nobody can pull that off the way Akshay is doing it right now. A lot of the older players are like super impressed.

with the way actually he's hitting the ball. And so, yes, he's a guy that's certainly on my list. Interesting. All right, Jason, anyone else you want to throw up before we get out of here? I know you've already been incredibly generous with your time. Any, any other names we didn't mention that you think deserve a shout before we, uh, we get out of here.

Let's see. I'll give you three more here, one from each tier. I always go top tier, middle tier, bottom tier. Top tier, Sanjay M is going to pop at some point. It kind of fell out. He missed the cut at Torrey, but he missed it on the number. It didn't play great last week, but Sanjay is going to do something really good. I still don't think we quite understand just how good Sanjay is.

And I've got him for a top five in my column this week for that mid-tier. Taylor Montgomery's guy talked to a decent amount during the offseason, working very hard on his game. The irons are starting to get dialed in. We know how good of a putter he is. Now the irons are there, I think, Montgomery. And then have you looked at the numbers from Nick Hardy recently? The results aren't really there. Yeah, I'm a huge Nick Hardy guy. I love Nick Hardy. Yeah. I still think Nick's a little...

What's the word? I feel like Nick's a little, oh, it's, I don't want to say not confident, but

But I need him to be a guy that's like, yeah, man, I got this thing. That's fair. I could see that because I was at Torrey and I got to do it for Golf Digest. So I was up there really close with him like on Saturday when nobody else was following the Nick Hardy group. And because he was a very crucial piece in a DraftKings lineup that had a real shot at one point.

And so I watched about seven holes following Nick Hardy really closely. And, you know, he was playing actually in that group with Taylor Montgomery. I think that I want to say the third player was Luke last, but what stood out to me was, I don't know if this is going to make sense, but

If you just are like an alien, just being dropped down on Torrey Pines and you just watch Nick Hardy hit the ball, you would think, oh my God, this guy is the best at golf. And then you check the scorecard at the end of the day. And it's like,

How is Taylor Montgomery beating him by like four strokes right now? And so it was kind of that experience of like, I test Hardy looks so much better than a player like Taylor Montgomery, but one player just gets the ball in the hole. And I don't know if Hardy has that get the ball in the hole yet. The way that a player like Montgomery does when I just watched them back close up together.

I think it'll come for him. Remember, he's in a trajectory that is the normal trajectory for a PGA Tour player. Like, okay, make it through the Corn Ferry Tour. You're a good college player. Make it through. Get your card. Just kind of hold on to your card as a rookie. Start doing better things. I know he won the Zurich alongside Davis Riley last year. That gives him an exemption for a few years that's massive. He doesn't have to worry about that kind of stuff. But

The outliers are the guys like Rory and Jordan and Morikawa and Oldberg who win right away and show that they can be world-class players. The other guy, I mean, I look at Nick Hardy very much like I looked at a Wyndham Clark. Like I'm looking at a Bo Hossler who's taking a little bit longer right now. But give it those three to four to five years of, okay, continue getting better. Almost a perfect example of that too. A little more confident.

Yeah. And you kind of get there. That's this is what golf used to be. I mean, this is what, you know, other than Tiger, who's the greatest outlier ever and Phil, but like, that's what you'd sort of get onto, or you weren't expected to go out and win anything as a rookie. You just kind of keep your card, you keep plugging away, you keep grinding and year three, year four, year five, it starts coming together for you. So I always like identifying those types of players that have been out for a few years and are about to reach that next level.

It's so true because guys like Morikawa and Spieth and Rory, I guess as well, have completely broken the mold. But like, I don't think Phil won a major until he was 30, right? I don't think DJ won a major until he was 30, right? And then you see somebody like Max Homa who has this really odd trajectory where he's pretty highly touted coming out of Cal, then goes through a huge downstretch. And then at 33 years old, turns into a top 12 player in the world.

Yeah. I mean, look at, you know, one of the guys I like a lot this week, Benny on, I went back and found it because I knew he had won the U S amateur, one of the amateur at a very young age. That was 15 years ago. I know. I mean, like it just happens at different intervals for different players. He's now 32 years old and we might be on the verge of Benny on being one of the better players on the PGA tour. Certainly wouldn't surprise anybody, but sometimes it just takes a long time. Sometimes it just doesn't click for a while.

All right, Jason, this has been a blast, man. Hopefully, yeah, hopefully we'll do it again a bunch more in the future. Give the listeners, what do you got to plug this week? I know you mentioned your article with Action Network is already up, but what else you got going on this week? Yeah, that stuff all over Action Network, actionnetwork.com and the app there. But you can catch my radio show, PGA Tour Radio, Sirius XM, Channel 92 with Michael Collins every day, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, called Hitting the Green, 2 to 4 p.m. Eastern time.

Awesome. It was a pleasure as always. Enjoy the golf this week. Enjoy the Super Bowl and we'll do it again soon, my friend. Absolutely. Thanks, Andy. All right. That is it for the podcast. We'll be back next week talking about my favorite non-major tournament of the year, the best non-major.

for the Genesis. I think Tiger's back. All my friends will be in town. I will be there on site. So we will have a big Sunday episode breaking down all of my thoughts about Riviera, a golf course I know very well. Until then, if you want to get more of my content, you can head on over to RumpierSports.com, promo code Andy. Best of luck with your bets this weekend. Enjoy the Super Bowl, and we will see you next time. Cheers. Cheers.

If I ventured in the slipstream Between the viaducts of your dream Where mobile steel rims crack And the dead send a back road stop

Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI. Because legal fees and time in court are just the beginning. Getting into a crash is another way that your world can be turned upside down. Your vehicle may not be the only thing that gets damaged in that crash. You can face a life altering injury or

or even death. But you're not the only one that can face those consequences. Your decision to drink and drive can permanently impact not just your world, but someone else's world as well. Whether you injure them or leave their loved ones grieving. The next time you're out drinking, call a ride share, a taxi, a sober friend,

or a designated sober driver. The only decision that will change your world for the better is the decision to call for a sober ride. Drive sober or get pulled over. Paid for by NHTSA.