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All right, great show for you guys today. I've got Chris Murphy from the Action Network on as we try and parse through this
We'll say weak field at the Palmetto championship. I do love weeks like this because I think it actually really rewards the people that are willing to do the legwork and dig into the numbers. A lot of the books, they can get kind of lazy and just have no idea with what to do with a lot of these guys. And you can really take advantage of that in that sense. So me and Chris get into a lot of players in this episode that I don't usually get to talk about, but I think are really going to have a good week.
Before we get into that, I want to tell you guys about BetUS. BetUS is an online legal sportsbook in all 50 states, and you can use promo code PICKTHEPUP, that's promo code PICKTHEPUP, to receive a 125% bonus on your first deposit. That is betus.com and promo code PICKTHEPUP. No spaces. Let's get to the show. All right, I've got Chris Murphy on the line here from the Action Network. How's it going, man? Good. Doing well. Appreciate you having me.
Absolutely. So I appreciate you joining me for such a crapshoot of a tournament. I guess we should start here, man. And I was getting into this a little bit with Rob Bolton on Twitter last night, and he works for the tour, so I know where he's going to stand. But we have such a terrible field this week, and it's getting worse by the second. I was just joking with you about how I went to go hit some golf balls this afternoon, and I was worried that more people had dropped out by the time I got back.
And the tour has no one to blame but themselves for this issue, in my opinion. And let's put the fact that this tournament is on the complete opposite side of the country. Like, let's table that. We can just completely table that. Like, I get that point. That's not even what I'm talking about.
What grinds my gears, man, is that they scheduled this course, which is awesome, by the way. It's incredible and it deserves better. They scheduled this course with no rough, these expansive giant waste bunkers, literally straight out of the Australian outback. And they're telling players, hey, go play this course. It's going to be great. This is going to be a great tune-up for Torrey.
The shots that you are going to have to hit at Torrey, which my guess will have the thickest rough that we've seen all year on tour,
are going to be so different from literally any shot that you would ever have to hit, especially around the green at Congaree. I think the differences will be the most pronounced around the greens. It's so stupid to me that they would do this. And what frustrates me the most is like, you know how the Houston opened the week before the Masters? Like they actually make a concerted effort to set that place up like Augusta. I'm not saying it's a perfect comp.
but at least they try and give players like a nice tune up. And guess what, Chris guys play it. Guys play that week. Dustin plays that week. Brooks plays that week. Phil always plays that week. Hideki plays that week. Hatton plays that week. Guess what? There are a lot of really good players, like really elite players that actually like playing the week before major. So I think they totally botched this one. And now I have to go bet Ben Martin. No, I agree with you. My biggest issue is,
I mean, I know it's a three-month lead-up. They had to cancel last minute, had to find a place to play. But you can't tell me there isn't a place anywhere on the other half of the country that could have supported this tournament. And the setup of it and trying to get it to match Torrey, that's one thing. But when guys are considering whether they're going to play the week before a major and they consider they have to go to South Carolina and play down there, then fly across the country, it's a big deal.
It's just not going to happen. They're not going – they're going to opt to, you know, work on their games, maybe go to Torrey early and check out the course there. That's my biggest thing is there's no way there wasn't somewhere else that could have supported this, made it a little bit more logistical where you don't have to – you know, we've got half the field from Memorial that's playing in Ohio. Some of them are supposed to come to South Carolina. If they qualify –
I think we see more of the withdrawals that we've already seen today as they go through the qualifiers for the US Open. It's just going to get worse and worse as it goes. But, you know, it is what it is. I think you're right. The star of the show this week is really going to be this course. It's an awesome looking course. And that's really what I'm looking forward to. And hopefully we can find some golfers that can handle it too.
Yeah, I don't want to get it. Like, I just think Congaree deserves better, man. I'm so excited for this course. All the research that I've done, everything I've heard about it, I think it's going to be awesome on TV. I hope that it's in the rotation for like years to come. I just wish that we were... I mean, like these guys are going from like Bermuda to Poa. Like, I just, I don't...
Anyway, man, it frustrates me, but we've already played that one out. Let's get into a little bit about the course. And I've already done a pretty extensive deep dive on it already on my Sunday pod. So I'll just kick it to you, man. To me, it really just seems like a combination of
Pinehurst, Shadow Creek and Royal Melbourne would be the best way that I would describe it. But what comes to mind for you when thinking of Congaree? Yeah, exactly. When I pulled it up, first thing that I thought of was Pinehurst number two, just the, the way spunkers, um, the way that it kind of, kind of rolls through the course, obviously you don't have, you know, the,
the undulations and the, um, you know, kind of turtle back greens of, of Pinehurst. I think it's a little flatter than that, but that was the first thing that came to mind for me was, was really the Pinehurst layout and how it mirrors that aspect of it. Um,
I think it's, you know, obviously the biggest thing is the length, you know, that stands up from a scorecard standpoint. I think they took one of the par fives, dropped it down to a par four. So you've got, you know, I think it's three or four that are playing over 500 yards, par fours playing to a par 71, which makes it the longest par 71 on tour. Yeah.
So that stands out, but it's made to play firm and fast to give you those run-ups, to give you the Texas wedge in hand around the greens, everything like that.
I think the challenge this week is to try not to put too much into the length. Cause I think, you know, ultimately if the weather doesn't have too much say in it, it's, it's going to play shorter than the number off the tee, but it's, it's going to be one where, you know, they're going to be able to get away with some stuff off the tee, go into some large greens. And sometimes it turns into a punting contest or if it's firm and fast, you know, it's going to be, uh,
a real challenge around the greens too. So I'm excited to see it, see it play out. Um, you know, you, you got a lot of long carries and things of that nature, but it's always fun to get a new course, get, get something else, um, insight and, you know, similar to your, from your pod last week, you know, it's one of the top courses in the nation and being able to get that, um, on this stage and have a couple of the top 15 or so players plan. It's going to be fun to see for four days.
I completely agree with you on the distance thing. Like the tour never, I mean, they rarely set up like you see 7,685 yards on the scorecard, but the tour, they do a bunch of weird things with the tee boxes. Like the same thing happened at the ocean course where everyone made a
giant, giant deal about the length. And then each day, not only because of the firm and fast conditions, but also they love doing weird things with the tee boxes and making some of the par fours drivable and making some of the par fives. They like putting the tee boxes up on that. Like there's a par five that's 645 yards or something. I'd be absolutely shocked if it played that long that day. I mean,
every single day. I think it'll probably play that long at least one day. And, you know, they have so many options with this course from what I've heard. So I'm kind of, I haven't really decided where I landed on how difficult it's going to be. Like, I think there's,
That's the thing that I'm really trying to figure out right now that is really... Would really help me narrow down my... I mean, I've made some bets already and I have some guys that I have confidence in. But if you had to take a guess...
What would you say the winning score is going to be this week? Because there's one school of thought that it's like, well, if they're smart, they'll at least try and make it somewhat difficult. So these guys don't go from the guys that are in this field playing in the US Open next week. They don't go from like 25 under to a USGA setup. But, you know, I can't really figure out if this is going to be that easy or hard.
Yeah, and I'm in the same boat. I've actually got some plays kind of in mind that kind of play the middle of the road there. Some guys that I really like, if it kind of goes one direction or the other, I can't figure out right now. I don't have a good feel. I'll be interested to see what some of the players say in interviews over the next couple of days to try to get a better feel for it if it's going to be a bit of a scoring fest or really stay challenging throughout the
But it's really hard at this stage to really get a feel for what they're expecting. And what, you know, it ultimately comes down to how firm and fast can they make it and do they want to make it? That's going to be, you know, the protection where the roll off of the greens take you into the waste bunkers or take you into a hazard or, you know, or are they going to dial it back and let these guys attack and, you know, potentially go low to come
kind of some softer putting surfaces and things like that. So it's hard to say right now if that's a, you know, really a 10 under or a 20 under. You know, it's really hard to say kind of where it falls on the realm of scoring this week.
I'm with you. And that's why I've kind of tried to bet some players that I think are agnostic of difficulty, where I think they could win a tournament where the winning score is six under. And I also think they could win a tournament where the winning score is 25 under. Let's get into the guys, man. So,
We'll do the tiers that I have here. All odds are courtesy of BetUS. Use promo code PICKTHEPUP to get 125% bonus on your first deposit with BetUS. So these numbers are BetUS, Chris. But as always, feel free to throw out any numbers that you have gotten on these guys. Yeah, sure. 25 and below, we have Dustin Johnson at 8-1, Brooks Koepka at 8-1, Tyrell Hatton at 16, Matthew Fitzpatrick at 16, Sung Jae at 20.
Tommy Fleetwood at 28. Let's, oh, and we'll throw Harris English in there at 28. We'll do a 30 and below. Have you completely far gone this range or is there somebody that you have interest in here? Because I was completely about to forego it. And then I ended up betting someone here.
Yeah, I, um, I have no interest in, in DJ or Capco. Uh, I typically don't go that low anyway, and it has to be just kind of the perfect storm scenario where I'm checking all the boxes and just had no questions about a guy. Um, clearly we've got some questions about form for DJ. Capco is notorious for not showing up. Um,
When it's not a major championship, I'm just not going that low. You know, for Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood, Fleetwood's, that number's pretty interesting for this field. I know. My problem with those three guys is that they're ball strikers and none of the three of them have had their ball striking to be able to rely on them.
They've really been inconsistent, really been missing in that aspect. So for me, the number that I'm attracted to is really Hatton at 16. I've seen some 11s and 12s out there, which is just too short. But you get to the mid-teens, mid to upper teens, I get a little more interested in Hatton. I think he can, as you kind of alluded to earlier, he can fit whether it's a grind or whether it goes low. He's got the approach play.
Around the green is strong. You know, he's long enough on off the tee, in my opinion. I think, you know, this is really the type of tournament that he typically does well at. He's he's kind of the opposite of Brooks. He hasn't shown up for many majors. So you get into these fields and these are a lot of times the tournaments where we see him contend and see him give himself a chance to win. I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but he's the one that that piques my interest in this range.
Yeah, I'm with you. Hatton, I was close with Hatton. Hatton was probably my second favorite in this range. I ended up betting Sung J.M. at 20 to 1. And...
I'll tell you why. You are right about the ball striking with Sungjae. But I did a little bit of a deep dive on this. And I know that the irons have been pretty bad. But I looked at all the times that Sungjae has lost strokes on approach and what he has done the following week. So this is over the past, like,
Every time that he's lost strokes on approach over dating back like the last eight or so months, he lost strokes on approach at Houston, came back the next week, and I don't have the master stats, but he finished second and almost won that tournament. He lost...
Three strokes on approach at the Sony, came back the next week, gained 3.1 at the Amex. Lost three at the API, came back the next week, gained on approach at the Players. Hemorrhage strokes at this year's Masters, came back the exact next week and gained 3.5 at the Heritage. He lost 3.6 strokes again at the Wells Fargo, came back the exact next week and gained another stroke at the PGA. So every single time that Sung Jae has lost strokes,
on approach, he kind of flips it quickly. And what's been so interesting to me about Sanjay, and this is my first time betting him in like at least six months, you know, he has been such a volatile player. And I've really been just, normally I would see a guy losing strokes on approach and I would be like,
immediate cross off, not for me, but you know, Sungjae and it kind of worked out for me a little bit with Adam Scott. Some of these guys that have these strokes gain whack-a-mole profile, I'm just trying to embrace more of that volatility and the numbers really do bear it out with Sungjae recently. Like he really is one of those guys that flip it quickly. I tend to think of like strokes gain approach as a way more sticky stat,
than putting where it's a lot harder to flip it on a, on a week to week basis. But some of these guys like Sungjae, they're,
It is so hard to predict. And he, he just, he completely flips it so quickly. And I want to give a quick shout out to my friend Nagels as well, who pointed out to me today, I made a huge mistake in my Sunday pod. I said that CT pan was the only other player in this field outside of DJ to have played in the president's cup at Royal Melbourne. I got confused on the Wikipedia page because Sungjae's name was in like a different color because he was a captain's pick or something.
Sung Jae rolled at the President's Cup. I think Xander and Cantlay are still having nightmares about that. He beat Xander and Cantlay twice with Adam Hadwin, and then he wiped the floor with the reigning U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland in singles. We love Sung Jae on Bermuda. I can give you a million Sung Jae Bermuda stats, and I'll tell you, Chris, here's the thing that I like the most about him. I haven't heard a peep.
No one wants a piece of, I haven't heard one peep. I say it's still early in the week, but you know, the back-to-back miscuts, I haven't heard one peep at all. So I'm in, I'm betting Sung J.M. this week.
I mean, you can never, you know, never discourage you from betting Sanjay on Bermuda. He's always in play. He's always going to tee it up. So eventually he'll come across a Bermuda course. And yeah, I mean, I can see it. Like you said, Melbourne's a good example of that as far as this course fit too. So I can see it.
Yeah, I mean, he's just one of the... Basically, if he has a decent iron week, he can win. You can't say that about a lot of these guys that we're about to talk about. Yeah, exactly. That's another thing this week is...
trying to look at these guys as we get further down the board and see who really has win equity, you'll drive yourself crazy trying to do it. So yeah, I think it makes sense to give some heavyweights to some of the guys at decent numbers up towards the top too. So moving into the 30 to 60 range, and there's some variation here with what I've seen across a couple of bucks, but
You've Gareth Higo at 30 to one. I've seen him as high as 50 to one. Keith Mitchell at 33 to one Pat Patton Kazire at 33 to one Alex Noren at 33 to one. I've seen him as low as 28 in some places in Poulter at 33 Lucas Glover at 45 Brant Snedeker at 45 Harold Varner at 50 Jonathan Vegas at 50 Ben Martin at 60 CT pan at 60 Russell Knox at 60 Kevin Kisner at 60
and no more Danny Willett. So let's stop there. This is a big range. I actually, I have bet, oh my gosh, I have bet four guys that are in this range, but only one of them is below 60 to one. So,
I bet a bunch of these guys that are, I got them at different odds at like 75 and 100, but I guess we'll just talk about them now. Who in this range piques your interest the most? Yeah, my first bet, I mean, I came into the week
you know, as I was kind of putting stuff together for Action Network last night, kind of doing my summary article, I was all ready to go on Alex Noren, ready to dive in, go that direction. First book I looked at had him at 25 to 1, and I just simply can't go there. 33 is a little closer. I still have interest. If I can find something in the 40s, I may pull the trigger. But I've
The first click I made was on Keith Mitchell. I found a 50, you know, he's similar to Sunday. He's a Bermuda guy. This is a, um, you know, it's a big course where, where distance is going to be a factor to some extent and be an advantage. Um,
You know, he... Wells Fargo and Quail Hollow aren't a perfect example, but it's the same course. It's the same champion Bermuda, though, at Quail Hollow. Correct. Yeah, it's the same Bermuda. It's a big course, large layout. He, you know, really...
Played fantastic for three days and just got beat down the stretch by Rory. But he's a guy that I have a lot of interest in. He's from the area. I can roll off a few other things from that perspective. He's fifth in my overall model.
in terms of everything that I'm looking at this week. And so at that number, he stood out. Similar from the same area, Patton Kazire was another one that I clicked on. I got a 45 on him, was pretty happy for that.
He, I think, benefits the most from the fact that these fairways are so wide. My biggest concern with Kazire is always him spraying it off the tee and just having no chance to get back. Now, I say that, and he completely derailed his memorial on the first hole with a triple bogey where he hacked it around the green like I would.
But he's a guy that can't, he has solid approach play. I think with these big greens, if they do, if they are soft, they are receptive in any way, it can become a bit of a putting contest when you get on these big putting surfaces. And he's the type of guy that on Bermuda, with this type of layout, I like his chance to bounce back off of a missed cut and to potentially put his name in contention similar to what he did a few weeks ago at Colonial.
trying not to forget that form that he had, even when he had a bad showing the prior week. I had already clicked Will It? I
I was in on Willett at 80, was pretty excited about that, both the number and the opportunity. But then about 15 minutes later, found out that he had withdrawn. So he's off the list. Another name that I came across, and maybe you can give me more background on this guy, but he seems to have come out of nowhere for me is Ben Martin. He keeps showing up in my models and on my list.
He's just a guy that seems to be producing results. It's been a little bit on corn theory and on the PGA from what I've seen. And so, you know, you tell me, what do you know about Ben Martin? What can you give me on him? I have bet Ben Martin, Chris, at 100. I bet Ben Martin at 100 to 1. I was the same with you. He just...
he rates out really well for me statistically. And, you know, I'm seeing him here at 60 to one that I would have no interest, but at a hundred to one, and I'm going to play him in the top 40 market too. I don't know if you're big into kind of the finishing position markets as well, but I think he probably is a much more suitable play in the finishing position market than he probably is as an
as an outright, I'm going to put like a very small fraction of a unit on him as an outright, but yeah, he, he was, he popped his 11th in my model this week. And, you know, he's, he's trending as well, which I'm kind of trying to pay more attention to like, you know, missing out on Cantley last week. Cantley was fine in my model, but,
as soon as the tournament wraps up, I try and go back and look at my research and see what I missed and see like, why didn't I consider Cantlay here more? Like, what was I missing here? And what I noticed with Cantlay is at the sample size that I was looking at, he was good, but nowhere near as strong as a play as Zayn.
or Finau, the two guys I did end up betting. But when you shrunk the sample size to literally the last eight and 12 rounds, Cantlay popped all the way up to the top because he had that amazing PGA where I think he almost led the entire field in strokes, gain, ball strike, and he was up there in approach. And I kind of viewed it as,
you know, that's a flat, that's a little bit of a flash in the pan. Show me a little bit more, but you know, some of these guys, like when they get hot, you just want to play them. And Martin is one of those guys, like he's 11th in my model, but you know, if you keep shrinking the sample size, you're,
he becomes the ninth ranked player over the last 12 rounds. And he actually becomes the number two golfer for me over his last eight rounds. Now, I don't think that you should ever live and die by that type of stuff. But, you know, he was a guy that if I can get Martin at a hundred to one and, uh,
at a decent plus money price to play him in the top 40 market. I do think that he's a great bet. And I mean, the fact that you see that some places have him at like 60 to one, that was kind of fascinating to me. Yeah.
Yeah, no, I agree. And I agree on your overall sentiment that this week is, and especially as we get further down the board, you know, the top 20, top 30, top 40 markets are going to be a place to kind of pepper this tournament, in my opinion, just with, you know, some of the young names that we have, some of the guys that we've kind of been waiting to make a bit of a move. This is the type of field that they can do that. But that's good to hear. I'm glad to hear that you're kind of on the same page with Martin, who's a name that just kind of
Came out of nowhere for me a little bit. By the way, quick aside, you know, I know that you write the, I think the reason that I've, I found you is because you write these great buys and fades articles mid tournament. I feel like this would be a great tournament to save some bullets until mid till, till in tournament. Is that typically your strategy from week to week where you're outright card or whatever the exposure that you have is a little bit lighter because you're always knowing that you're going to add some more guys mid tournament.
Yeah, and I've had some good success from doing that this year. It varies tournament to tournament. Last week, it was a good example. I just didn't like the numbers pre-tournament last week. We kind of had Rahm, who was way short, and obviously there was a really good reason for that. And then we had a bunch of guys kind of jumbled in the teens. I was eyeing Finau as well and just –
Really had trouble getting to him at 25 to one. So, yeah, I try to stay in tune with it during the rounds and try to make some live bets, make some overnight bets. But, yeah, no, I completely agree because we're going to have some names that we don't expect that are.
that come out and they're playing well and show it to us kind of in the first round. The books don't always make enough of an adjustment to it and you can make a good buy there. I was able to get a decent number within each way on Scheffler and that's about the only thing that I pulled out of last week. So you can find some opportunities to get a little bit better number, you know, even if a guy bogeys an early hole or something like that. So
I will be light this week on my outrights, kind of seeing how the tournament plays, seeing how some of the guys play, get a better feel for it, maybe through the first round, fire some bullets on some guys that have some opportunities to move up the board going into the second day. Is there any other guys in this range that have your attention? I've seen some...
I've seen a fair amount of love so far for Ian Poulter. I think Glover is a guy that is probably going to be quite popular because of the ambassador thing, of course. He's an ambassador to the Congaree Foundation, but he's also just playing really, really well right now. For me, I have actually... I bet Harold Varner at 50-1. You know, Varner's another guy that...
He's another player like Sungjae where you got to do the legwork a little bit with these guys because a lot of the time when they have a bad iron week and, you know, it's been really interesting to me too because I always think of Varner as like a really public, chalky play. But it seems like way more people are kind of gravitating to that Mitchell and Kazire approach.
range that you talked about. I was kind of in between a lot of these guys with like Varner and Mitchell and Keziah and Noren. And I was just going to kind of let the numbers dictate it for me. And if you had told me that Alex Noren was 50 to one and Harold Varner was 30 to one, I could have seen that. And I would have bet Alex Noren. I think these books sometimes just really react to how these guys play on Sundays. And Noren had this
awesome Sunday where he shot up the leaderboard and he was even shown on a little bit of the TV coverage and Varner kind of sucked on Sunday and finished like 50th. But, but this is like a embarrassingly nerdy thing to talk about here, but I did the legwork with Varner too, like Sungjae. This is a, but I need a girlfriend, Chris. So Varner is the same with Sungjae where he,
He lost strokes on approach at Memorial, but he's done that nine times in the last 16 months. And the week after losing strokes on approach, Varner's gained like an average of almost 2.5 strokes on approach in his next week after losing strokes on approach.
So these proven ball strikers like Sungjae and Varner, I think people are off them right now because, and who knows, Varner, everyone loves Varner. So he could end up being very popular. I just haven't heard much on him yet at the moment.
But these guys like Varner and Sungjae, people look at the missed cuts and they look at a bad iron week out of them. And they're like, these guys are playing really bad. These guys are more proof. You have to, some of these guys that are more proven ball strikers over, over a larger sample size, they actually usually flip their irons pretty quickly. DJ is a great example at the top. If you want to get really high end with it, Varner and Sungjae are kind of more middling options, but Varner,
I think Varner can win this week. Like he's contended a lot. Like a lot of these guys, they don't even taste it. And you know, I know Varner hasn't won and I know he's kind of sucked on Sundays, but I mean, the dude was in the final group with Brooks at the 2019 PGA championship. He's contended at Riviera. He's contended in FedEx cup playoffs before he's contended at the, at the players. I just like, I think he could win this week. And I,
I thought it was going to be 33 to one or something like that, but you know, at 50 to one, I think you could do way worse. No, I agree. He's, he actually is the top player in my model. Um, he, he ranks out as, as the top guy I'm this week, I'm relying more on short term form. Just looking at, uh, really the way I have it run is the last two months, which gives me mostly, you know, 18 to 20 rounds for most guys. Um,
You know, I just with with this field, I want some guys that are coming in showing some of that form. Recently, over the past couple of months, past few tournaments, there's a major in there for for a bunch of these guys. My I have not bet Varner yet. I just can't quite get there. And part of it is.
I think just seeing the number next to his name and the number that I'm used to seeing is trying to get over that aspect. It's all jarring. He's, he's, you know, he's a bad putter, but he's actually worse on Bermuda, which is a terrifying thought from, from a person that follows the, uh,
shot link from a shot-to-shot basis for DFS standpoint and sees those misses. But, I mean, I fully get it, obviously. I mean, from a stat standpoint, he's that fit. And you're right. I mean, in this field, a 50 number for a guy –
He has the upside. He's shown it. He hasn't gotten it done, but frankly, there aren't many guys that have gotten it done in here. I'm taking some shots on other guys that haven't pulled through yet. It makes a ton of sense, and it may be one that by the end of the week, I end up clicking on to it.
Let's extend to the 60 to 100 range. And we can just talk about all of these guys in a group, but you add in Martin Laird, Rafa Cabrera-Bale at 66, Pat Perez at 66, Doc Redman at 66, Scott Stallings at 70, Luke List at 75, Vincent Whaley at 75, Matthew Neesmith at 80, Eric Van Ruyen at 80, Camillo at 80, Rory Sabatini at 90, Bo Hoag at 90,
Benny on at a hundred. She must power at a hundred steps. Rock at a hundred. Any more of those guys kind of just extending into that range all the way up to 100 to one that have your attention. Yeah. And, you know, back to, to my point on HV three is me taking a shot on, on another guy that hasn't gotten it done is doc Redmond. He's, he's a Clemson guy from the area, which, which pains me as a game cock, but what I, what I've really noticed with him, um,
He seems to have found something putting. I've always thought of Redman as a ball striker, a guy that's going to get it done, tee to green, and then just kind of fall apart on the greens. And he's been a staple in my...
fades category the last few weeks when I've been writing my articles because he's been showing such good putting form and he's, you know, just over the long term isn't a good putter. But he's gained nearly two strokes or more on the greens in each of his last four tournaments. That to me is, you know, that's enough consistency over four tournaments to show, you know, some signs that some things are really turning around from a putting standpoint. And if he's going to put up some decent putting numbers, you know,
I have more faith that the ball striking is going to turn around and can be elite. He's not a guy that I typically
you know, would target for a grind type of tournament. So I think, you know, if I'm thinking that Redmond's going to be in contention, I'm expecting it to be kind of low scoring. But this feels like a place and a field where a guy like Redmond can kind of get away, similar to Kazire, get away with his off-the-tee issues that have been the biggest problem for him over the last few weeks.
and maybe put it off together to really put his name in the mix, uh, over the weekend. And he's done that really, um, a few times over the past four or five events, he's been there and had his name there. He just hasn't quite come through. Um,
but he's a guy that i believe in the town that i think it's there um that he'll he'll he'll get it done at some point and and this feels like a week that we could see something like that if you know a dj and kafka don't show up in full force so if they show up in full force you know we may be just just talking about a bunch of guys that are gonna get uh blown out of the water
But I think Redmond kind of fits that mold for me. I'm totally with you, man. You don't have to twist my arm on Doc Redmond. I've mentioned this before, but when I was first starting my website, I started it in like October, I think. And at the end of December, when golf was kind of in a little bit of a lull, I wrote an article where I made 10,
bold-ish predictions for the upcoming year in golf. And one of my predictions was that Doc Redman, because of that ball striking run that I'm sure you are aware of as well, kind of at the end of last summer and last fall, that Doc Redman would win this year and finish the year in the top 30 of the OWGR. Pretty much the season that Corey Connors is having. Right.
Is the season that I thought doc Redman was going to have. And, and obviously it hasn't worked out yet, but I'm still so bullish on him long-term. I think that's a great play, especially, especially if you can get them close to triple digits to like 66, I don't know, but I think you can, if you shop around, find something closer to triple digits for doc Redman, which I, which I love the guy that I kind of,
The guy that I was choosing between Redman with, and I ultimately landed on this guy, was I bet Johnny Vegas here. And I also bet Brant Snedeker, which we can talk about too in a second, which are kind of an interesting pair of guys to bet here. But I look at someone like Johnny Vegas, and he always tends to pop in these weaker fields. It's almost like he can smell blood in the water. And that's probably because Johnny Vegas is a good player. He's been around for a while and won like three times, but
The last time we saw him on a big and wide open golf course, he finished ninth at TPC Craig Ranch. He's fourth in this entire field in strokes game ball striking on courses over 7,400 yards. He finished second in Puerto Rico in that big wide open Fazio course too. I'm a little squeamish about the short game, which is why I kind of promptly bet Brant Snedeker right after. But, you know...
This is the thing that I run into with short game sometime on some of these courses. And, and it was the same thing at Kia where it's like Kia, where it's like, yes, on the surface, this is a really big short game course with chipping, but like,
it's more so just a lag putting in sand course right because if you're not in like you don't act if you don't want to you don't really ever have to chip on this course you just have to hit bunker shots and be a good lag putter right and that was kind of the same thing with kiowa where it was like you know everyone was talking about how it's chipping chipping chipping well you
you actually saw a lot of guys not chipping at all. If they were in those runoff areas, they would just putt. And Vegas is actually a really good lag putter. He's 35th in three-putt avoidance compared to 107th in strokes gained around the green and 109th in strokes gained putting. So I look at a guy like Vegas who on the surface, you get a little squeamish about his strokes gained around the green and his strokes gained putting, but he's actually pretty good out of the sand and he's a really good lag putter too. Yeah.
Yeah, no, I'm eyeing Vegas too. I agree with your entire sentiment there. He's got the mix that you're kind of looking for this week. You know, another guy that kind of caught my eye in this range was Luke Lips. Yeah. I tend to go when, you know,
Course record holder. Oh, yeah. Did you hear that? Yeah. So I didn't hear that. So apparently Luke less holds the course record at Congaree. Oh, perfect. All right. There's my narrative right there. No, I mean, really, yeah.
What I try to do a lot of times when we get these new courses is, you know, we talk a lot about how length is going to impact or, you know, what the layout is really going to entail and highlight or what's going to be the most important aspect. At the end of the day, it's really hard to do that without seeing the guys on the course, having no course history. So if I can lean on ball striking, that's what I'll do. You know, we know Luke Liss is a ball striker. We
We know, you know, what he can do. I'm not worried about what he did last week at the Memorial where he lost strokes. He was, you know, reeling off multiple rounds as we normally would expect from him from a ball striking, tee to green standpoint. It's always about the putter. It always is with Luke List. And you just never know when you're going to find that round where he gains 2.7 strokes or
on the greens like he did at Wells Fargo and finished at sixth. So if I can dial it in and know that I'm going to get a certain skill set out of a player, and especially when it's ball striking, when I know he's long off the tee, when he's on, he's a great approach player.
If I can happen to find the week where Luke lists rolls the ball in the hole, then, then, you know, I'm feeling pretty good about myself and 75, you know, 75 is a good number for this week for Luke lists. You can get a, I'm sure you can get a hundred. Yeah. And I, yeah, like you said, you know, just shopping books is, is such an important aspect for, for a week like this because they're all over the map, but, but yeah, Luke, Luke lists was one that, that kind of jumped out to me as well.
I'm with you. And the thing about Luke List is, you know, there's such a, there's a difference. There's a mistake that people make between like bad putters and volatile putters. Like Colin Morikawa, Colin Morikawa is not a bad putter. Colin Morikawa is a volatile putter, which means when it gets bad, it gets really bad, but he can also gain like four strokes putting as well. There's a difference between guys like that. And like, I think Doug Gimm and Sergio Garcia are bad putter.
And what that is, is like they either lose a lot of strokes putting or they gain one stroke putting as a good week for them or are around zero when it's a good week for them. But Luke Liss actually falls more into that volatile category where, you know, he has
looking at it now, he's lost over three strokes putting in six of his last eight starts. But in the starts that he does gain strokes putting, he's not, it's not neutral. Like he's actually gaining over two strokes putting. So the other is, I mean, it's, it's a pretty good outright play too, because,
you know, there's a high miscut percentage based on the fact that he's viable to lose five strokes putting, but you know, he could also win this tournament if he gains over two or three strokes putting. So I like that. I like that as well. There, there are a couple of those guys, man, that I was, I was looking at like, like Russell Knox to a lot of these guys that are really good ball strikers. My issue, my issue that,
you know, causes hesitation for me and has me looking more towards guys like Snedeker and, and a CT pan was another guy that I had some interest in is like, if these guys are going to hammered strokes on the green at colonial, are they really going to figure it out on Congaree? Like that's the issue I have. And, you know, I, I,
I've read all these articles from all of these non-professional golfers where they're like, the greens are the biggest defense. They're so undulating. They're so fast and difficult. And there's kind of two schools of thought with that is you can look at it like, okay, these greens are absolutely brutal. And you can also look at it like,
These are just regular guys that think these greens are brutal. Like how much weight do we really want to put into articles written by regular golfers? Um, are, can we say definitively that pros are going to struggle on these screens? Like, I don't know. Right.
Yeah, and that's part of what, you know, kind of going back to putting some bullets in the holster for mid-round is really kind of seeing and understanding, you know, seeing 18 holes from the entire field and seeing kind of how the course plays, you know,
That's what makes me lean on where can I lean that I'm confident that a guy like Luke List, I know the ball striking is going to be there. Let's see if he can find something else to put himself in contention this week. You mentioned Snedeker.
Give me some thoughts there. Give me some background there. Because the guy that I put in kind of a similar mold that I've been looking at, and you mentioned briefly, was Poulter. Just with the around the green aspect, the ability to play on really any course setup. And because of the way that he can do things on and around the greens, he can put himself in contention. I imagine that's kind of your mindset at a little bigger number for Seneca.
Yeah, my logic for Snedeker is this, is that I think people are going to count him out because he's not long. And I just think that that would be a mistake. I said the exact same thing about the ocean course, but you're out of your mind if you think this course is actually going to play 7,600 yards. They're going to move the tee boxes all over the place, and it's going to be one of the firmest and fastest tests that they've seen all season.
Look, I think Snedeker can compete here. I think he can navigate these tricky, undulating putting surfaces really well. He'll be able to putt from anywhere here. He's good out of the sand. He's the king of champion Bermuda. He's literally never lost strokes putting at the Wyndham in his entire career. He's played it like nine times. He's won that event. He loves these surfaces. He's weirdly number one in this field over his last 36 rounds in strokes game par five, which was...
Absolutely shocking to me. I guess that's probably because he has such a good short game and his long irons aren't really as bad as you would think. So he probably makes a lot of birdies on these par fives. Maybe I'm putting a little too much weight into the course comp thing, but I mean, he finished ninth in 2014 at,
Pinehurst at the U S open. Um, and Poulter played well there too. Poulter finished like 17th Brooks actually before Brooks was even good, finished fourth at the 2014 U S open at Pinehurst and Mitch Matthew Fitzpatrick as like a 15 year old kid finished 48th.
So that was interesting to me as well. But yeah, Snedeker finished ninth at Pinehurst. That course in 2014, I was there. I went to that tournament when I was a college student at Duke down the road. I mean, it was playing over 7,400 yards that week. I remember really clearly Keimer won by like eight strokes. And, you know, Snedeker was never really in the mix. No one was, but I think that he can compete here. I think he's good. You know, and a lot of it has to do with like,
When there's a course like this, Chris, and I can't say definitively that my projection of this course is going to be correct. I could be completely wrong. And so what I like doing sometimes is I like pairing guys like Vegas and Snedeker together because I feel like I have all my bases covered. Yeah, no, I agree with that. Yeah, and that's how I'm laying out some of my betting card.
As I get into kind of the DFS aspect, I don't know how much you do, Andy, but I'm getting there a little bit. Yeah. And I actually like to do the opposite a little bit in, in DFS where you can build some lineups, um, that are, you know, six bombers or, you know, six guys that really specialize around the green or, or something like that. Um, so that you kind of cover the bases. If, if this turns into a chip and putt, um,
Where you've got six guys that are kind of lined up and have that exact skill set kind of across the board. That's something I like to do from the DFS standpoint, especially for these tournaments where we're just kind of taking an educated guess on how it's going to play.
Do you have any more guys in... Now let's kind of open it up to 100 plus. Are there any guys above 100? I know when I sent you the outline, I didn't write all these guys out because it gets pretty dark down here. But any of these guys that have your attention, not even necessarily for outrights, but finishing position, DFS, anything? Yeah, I mean, there's...
There are a bunch of names that I probably will take some stabs at from, you know, top 40, top 20 type of standpoint. The one that stood out for me is really highly ranked and I don't really have an answer for it yet. It's Hank Leviota. Oh, me too, man. Yeah.
I'm still trying to figure out how he's sitting in the top 10 of my model, but, you know, and looking a little bit closer, you know, he's reeled off back to back rounds at Wells Fargo and Byron Nelson. He had 6.2 and 4.1 strokes gained on approach. Second and third best iron weeks of his entire career. Yeah, I would imagine so. I mean, that...
Those are the types of names where you just kind of see, hey, let's take a shot, see if he can keep it going. If he found something and can keep it rolling, he's worth a top 20 in this type of field. And you shop around, you know, and once the numbers come out, probably tomorrow morning, the top fives, top tens, top twenties, we're going to see the same variance that we've seen on a lot of these outrights in those markets.
So he's a name that jumped out to me. I've got a soft spot for some reason for Chris Ventura, and I can't really explain it. But this is the type of course where I feel like
can take advantage with length off the tee. He's a great putter, 300 to one. I just feel like these are, and I can go down the list, your Will Gordons of the world, the guys that are coming out of college, Davis Thompson, John Pack, all of those guys are going to be names that are going to have some interest because this is the type of field where you see those names
kind of finally put themselves in contention, finally put a full week together where their potential that they've shown in their career can stand out. And the only other name that I'll say that I came across today that I was a little surprised at was Kevin Chappell.
He's another long player off the tee. We know he has the talent. He's been there in majors. He had, what was it? It was a back injury, I believe. Something like that. Yeah. He did have a medical thing. I just don't remember. He had a medical thing that has set him back. He just got back, was on Korn Ferry Tour, posted a top 15 interview.
That to me, this type of week, that's some form that I can lean on for a guy that I know is talented. And I'll throw a dart and see if he can top 20, throw him in a DFS lineup or two and see if he, like I said earlier, just see if they found something, something that you can kind of point at and say, if they can hold on to this, I know they can put their name kind of towards DFS.
you know, at least the middle of the list, make a cut and see what happens on the weekend. I'll add this on Ventura too. So the Oklahoma state golf course, I, my roommate here in Los Angeles is from Oklahoma. And last summer we went on a golf trip back to Oklahoma and played a bunch of courses out there. And one of the courses that we played was the Oklahoma state golf course where, you know, Hovland and Ricky and Ventura and all of those guys played every day.
It's a 7,500-yard firm and fast Tom Fazio course.
Nice. So, I mean, again, like whatever, but it's, it's, it don't live and die by this stuff, but it's fun. Right. Yeah. And, and take something that, uh, that at least you can explain to yourself why, why you're taking it and, uh, then, then see how it plays out. What do you have in this range? What are you, anybody sticking out? So Lebiota too, you know, like a lot of the guys that I, like, I bet, uh,
Like Ben Martin at 100, I'm going to play him as a finishing position as well. I tend to, the way that I usually do it, Chris, is I usually pick like six outright guys and all of the outright guys that are above me
50 to one i'll throw a finishing position on them too i kind of like to i like to keep it man is i went through a phase earlier on where i was rolling into these weeks and i'd have the pga tour leaderboard app open and i'd have 25 guys starred and like it just wasn't even enjoyable uh so what i try and do is i try and like the six guys that i really like i i
kind of go all in on them. And I, and I hedge myself that, you know, if they're going to, you know, even if they don't win, I still kind of need them to play well. And then what I'll typically do is I'll typically add like between two and four top 40 guys that I just, they just kind of missed my outright card, but I'm going to place a bet in. So I usually have around like 10 guys that I have starred that I really need to play. Well, Lebiota is definitely going to be one of those guys that,
I gave Duff Daddy a hard look. He's having a little bit of a ball-striking renaissance right now. He's gained over 3.8 strokes on approach in three of his last five starts. He gained seven at the Wells Fargo.
The problem with Duffner, it's the same criticism I kind of have in the Luke List conversation. It's like, you know, if he's losing 7.8 strokes putting at the Valspar, is he going to figure it out here? So I'm a little squeamish with Duffner. I gave Bronson Bergoon a little bit of a look. Chappell, you're on to Chappell.
weirdly is number one in strokes, gain ball striking on courses over 7,400 yards. Like he's above Brooks. And I haven't done a deep dive to figure out what a lot of those numbers are coming from, but he popped out to me too. In that sense. I think the only other guy that I really like that we didn't talk about that I'm definitely going to have some exposure to is CT pan and CT pan is
He went two and one in the 2019 president's cup at Royal Melbourne. Both of those wins were with Hideki. So it's possible that Hideki carried that team, but I mean him and Hideki beat Patrick Reed and Webb Simpson, uh,
twice. And one of the times they dominated them, he has a really, really good short game, which is probably why he played so well at Royal Melbourne. He's 20th around the green 38th and sand saves finished second at the Wyndham on champion Bermuda 12th at Sanderson farms on champion Bermuda. And he's just one of those guys that's trending like
He ranks 45th in my model over the last 36, but you shrink the sample size a little bit to last 24 and he shoots up to 25th and then you shrink it to 12 and he shoots up to 18th. So I think he's kind of just playing a little bit better, but I mean, that's kind of it for me, man. I'm kind of like you. I think that if there's any more moves to be made, I'm not going to force it. And I'm just going to see if anyone catches my attention during the tournament.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I'm with you, and I've got Satoshi up shorter there too. I think he's 13th for me over the past couple of months, which is what I'm looking at. The only other guy that I guess I can't believe he's listed at 75-1, I overlooked it, was Whaley. Yeah, me too. Yeah, he's playing so well. Yeah, of course. He's just done – he's just made such a run over the past several tournaments that –
75 is too short, but he, he's a guy from, you know, a top 20 standpoint that, you know, you just kind of keep, keep riding them until there's a reason not to when guys are playing this well. So yeah, I like it. You know, it's, it's just a week where they're going to be a lot of darts and, and trying to find the,
the right mix and, and hopefully, you know, hitting on the key parts of the layout are going to be, you know, what can make or break the week. Yeah. I'm totally with you on Whaley. Like I know that he's going, he's going to be obviously super popular in DraftKings because he was the really chalky 6k guy and he actually delivered. So why would, why would people not want to go back to him? He, I think he's made eight consecutive cuts, but like,
from a non ownership standpoint where that stuff doesn't matter, like let's play the guy in the top 40 market or like the top 30 market. He's cashing those tickets every week. And he's actually been getting a little bit better on approach too. So I'm, I'm totally with you on that, man. Let's do a little bit of a recap. So for me, the guys that the, the guys that I'm going with is I bet Sanjay at 20 Varner at 50. I,
I haven't pulled the trigger yet on Snedeker, Vegas, or Pan, but those are probably going to be my guys. I see a 60 on Snedeker, a 75 on Vegas, and a 75 on Pan. And then I'm going to probably wrap it up with a 100 on Martin, and that's going to do it for outrights for me. And then I'll probably have some exposure to like a Lebiota or a Whaley,
I don't know, maybe a Bergoon, maybe a Pat Perez in the finishing position market, but that'll do it for me, man. What about you? Yeah, I'm in on Keith Mitchell at 50 and Pat and Kazir at 45. Those are my only two bets right now. I'm evaluating if I want to
to go anywhere up top. If I do, it'll be Hatton, but I think I'd have to see some drift there. And then, similar to you, as I get down to the bottom, I'm probably going to get there on HB3. I think if I got to the end of the week and he's even there on Sunday and he's number one in my model and I decided to pass, I'd just be kicking myself. So that's kind of one of those FOMO. I don't necessarily fully buy into him winning it, but at the number and what I'm seeing, it makes sense.
I think I'll probably get there on Redmond. And then I'm going to kind of just sprinkle the top 20, top 40 markets down below. I'll get there and do Chapel. For me, the talent outweighs it. I'll definitely do Ventura just because he's a guy that I've believed in for a while. And I think I saw 300 on him earlier today. So it doesn't take much just to take a chance. This is a week that he puts it together.
So that's where I am today. Chris, I really appreciate you joining me, man. Where can everyone find your work? Yeah, man. I appreciate you having me on. On Twitter, I'm at CS underscore Murph. I write for Action Network, do three articles during the week for them with the Strokes Games stuff. And then also Fantasy Labs doing the course preview and a DFS GPP article for them. So those three networks can get me.
Awesome, man. Well, I appreciate you coming on. This is fun, man. You're welcome on anytime. Awesome. I'd love to come back.
All right, that's it for the show, guys. I will see you guys next week for the U.S. Open, which I will be attending in person at Torrey Pines. Cannot wait for that. I usually rev up the content for majors, and this one is no different. So on my Sunday first look preview show, it's not going to be solo next week. I'm actually having a special guest on. Not going to tell you who it is now, but I'm really excited for it. I think you're really going to enjoy that episode. Until then, good luck with your bets. Later.
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