Northern Trust with Sia Nejad
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Okay, great show today with my buddy Sina Jad of the First Cut Podcast and Win Daily Sports. But before we get to the show, let's talk about Thrive Fantasy app. Thrive Fantasy app. Come prop up on Thrive Fantasy this football season. Thrive Fantasy is a daily fantasy sports and esports app for player props. With Thrive, you can eliminate countless hours of research and focus only on sports.

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boom, double your money is in your account from what you deposit. You're good to go and you can play against me to win even more money. So thrivefantasy.com, Thrive Fantasy app on the Apple store and use promo code Andy for a 100% instant match on your first deposit. Let's get to the show. All right. I am joined by Sina Jod, PGA analyst for Win Daily Sports and co-host of the First Cut Podcast.

I'm just going right back to the first cut. Well, two weeks in a row. It's not your first time on the pod, but I think it's been a while since I think it was the Valspar since you last came on. I went on yours Olympics week to discuss the putt pushing topic with our buddies, John and

Jeff, I had so much fun with that, which brings me to my first question for you, Sia. Should we just pivot from the Northern Trush and spend the next hour analyzing which pros are most likely to miss a putt to allow their friends on the bubble to continue their season? I'm sure my listeners would just absolutely love that. Oh, man. Well, you know, I thought that discussion was really cool. And I think I told you afterward. By the way, thanks for having me on the show. But like, I think I told you afterward, it's really cool when

you can come on my show. And it was very impromptu. I had messaged you and Jeff Feinberg and John, otherwise known as PGA Tout, who was very popular this week for good reason. For good reason, yeah. For you guys to have jumped on with me and Joel Schreck to talk some stuff that's related to golf, but not necessarily directly related to the actual golf that we were evaluating. It was super fun. And I really appreciate you coming on the show. And

And for the record, you know, we were talking pre-show, but I didn't really get to say this. Andy, you're such a respected person in this space. And I know you know that. Andy, I know you know that. I just feel like I need to reiterate it because I know a lot of people lean on you early in the week, throughout the week, over the weekend. Your golf acumen and knowledge is pristine. And I'm very happy to be on your show.

Well, I appreciate that, man. Thanks for saying that. Like I was just telling you off air, I've kind of leaned on people like you and Rick and Pat who kind of just gave the blueprint to me of how hard you kind of have to work to figure this stuff out.

That was literally what I was just talking about with Rick last week off air. But I appreciate you saying that, man. I feel the exact same way about you. I feel the exact same way about Spencer and Nick and all of those guys that we talk with a lot and have really smart and respected shows, in my personal opinion.

but let's dive into the Northern trust, man. Actually any closing Wyndham remarks. I hope you were unlike me and not part of the disaster. That was Russell Henley. No, I was, I was part of the Russell Henley disaster. So, and for the record, I guess it would have been the week before I was on Harris English when he completely, you know, went bananas the wrong way. So it's just one of those things. I mean, it really speaks to the volatility of golf. Like, you know, you know, in, in one minute you're thinking, wow, this is, this is Russell Henley's tournament. Yeah.

how can he lose? And then the next minute you're like, well, it feels like it was Kevin Kisner the whole time. I mean, which I'm overstating it a little bit, but you know, I'm almost referencing, you know, John's call from pre-tournament and it's just one of those things. The volatility of golf here is so extreme week to week. And so if you're, and it kind of speaks to the idea of like,

betting top 20s and top 40s really truly is the smart thing to do because you can A, sustain your bankroll, but B, and I think honestly, I think this is more important. I think you can sustain the emotional volatility that you as the better half

when you have like a first place ticket that all of a sudden falls, crashes and burns to quote, you know, fourth or fifth place. It's one of those things that like, it's a really tough pill to swallow sometimes. And I got to admit, I didn't have Henley in the top 20 or top 40 market. I wish I did, but I think it speaks to the idea of, you know, just betting these outrights. It's even head to heads. It's not necessarily the only place to bet things. I think that top 20, top 40 market is super smart. Couldn't agree more. You know, I'm a giant top 40 guy. I have had

so much. I don't want to even call it bad luck, but because it's golf, it's kind of par for the course, but I've had, like, I've had somebody in the mix on the back nine, almost, I think every single week this summer. And I,

I have hit zero of them have actually come through. It provided some nice like hedging opportunities at certain points and stuff, but you're right. It's just so volatile. And the way that I've been able to continue to build my bankroll has nothing to do with outrights. It's

all through those top 40s and top 20s that you were mentioning. So I'm with you. I completely agree. Should we dive into Liberty National? Yeah, you know, I did want to say, as far as the Wyndham is concerned, you know, and we were talking about this on the first cut last Monday during our DFS show. And, you know, there were a lot of guys like Kevin Kisner, like Siwoo Kim,

who were just completely crashed and burned the weekend before. I mean, if you recall, both those guys had some really bad days. And the conversation we were having on the first cut was, what do you ride? Do you ride recent history or course history? Now, granted, when we're talking recent history, we're not necessarily talking about one bad round or two bad rounds. We're usually talking like last 24 rounds or whatever. But there was a discussion as to

you know, do we take these course fit guys, or I should say course history guys like your Kevin Kisners, like your Webb Simpsons, like your Siwoo Kims, in spite of the fact that like some of the recent history seems a little checkered. And I think, you know, the verdict is in, at least as it relates to the Wyndham, which is these course history guys don't,

They're horses for, like that phrase, horses for the course. It's there for a reason. And it couldn't be more applicable here. You got Kevin Kisner at the top. You got Siwoo Kim tied for second. Webb Simpson is up there. There was a lot of guys up near the top that were really good course history guys. And some recent form guys too in the Roger Sloans of the world and that kind of thing. Brendan Grace had been coming on a little bit.

but really speaks to some of these courses. Course history really, really matters.

You know, you're so right about that. And I always fail to, I always underestimate that compared to recent form. I'm just far more of a recent form guy than a course history guy. But when you get to some of these places like Sedgefield, where it's an old school classical Donald Ross design, where a guy like Webb, he doesn't even have to be playing his best golf and he just understands where to mess on that golf course. I think there's a lot of merit to it.

No, I totally agree. And so it's, you know, it's one of those things. I mean, it doesn't it doesn't apply to every single tournament, every single situation. But there is something to be said. I think I think most people are writing recent history over course history, which I think is fine to do. But I think there are certain courses in certain cases and certain types of golfer that are really just going to shine at courses that they typically shine at, regardless of what their recent form is.

Well, speaking of a course, I'm working with Rick on my transitions. He's the goat. I'm never going to get there, but I'm learning. Speaking of course history,

We now enter a course, Sia, where we have a little bit of data on it. I'm speaking of Liberty National Golf Club. It's a par 71 measuring 7,353 yards. Word is that it got a little bit longer and is going to play a little bit closer to 7,400 yards. It is a Tom Kite and Robert Cup design. We got bent grass fairways. We got bent grass greens. This is a course, Sia, as I mentioned, that we've really only seen four times before.

the Northern Trust in 2009, 2013, and 2019. And I mentioned on my Sunday preview that I wouldn't really put any stock into 2009 because the course got a total face left after receiving a lot of criticism after that tournament. So we don't have a ton of data on this course and I have done

With that being said, I've done an extensive breakdown to the best of my abilities of Liberty National already on my Sunday podcast. So I will just kick it to you, C. What kind of sticks out to you about Liberty National? Yeah, I mean, what sticks out to me in terms of the golfers I'm keying in on are, first of all, I know it's kind of generic to say this, but the all-around game. I think off the tee, absolutely. It's like the first thing in my notes. Right.

Right. And I think off the tee absolutely matters. I think approach absolutely matters. The putter on bent, of course, that's going to matter. Around the green game, which I think people are more prone to minimizing, that's going to matter here as well. So I'm definitely looking for those basic metrics across the board. I mean, if we're digging deeper in terms of like maybe some

quote, secondary stats. Like I'm looking at, you know, buttery better gained. I'm looking at strokes gained par five, greens in regulation, certain proximity buckets, if you will, speaking of a term that Rick likes to use. Well, he actually doesn't like, he likes to use that term, but he doesn't actually like to use those proximities. But, you know, I'm looking at 175 to 200, 200 plus, 75 to 100. Both

Bogey avoidance I touched on a little bit and tee to green, just general strokes gained tee to green. So that's sort of like where my, I probably left a couple of things out, but that's sort of where my model has been geared to. But I mean, if you're looking super basic for me, I'm looking for the complete game. I don't think you have to be super long here. I certainly think it helps.

But I definitely think approach around the green, putting off the tee, it's all going to come into play. And just to piggyback your point, I think when you look at the leaderboards here, again, I know this is a bit of a cop-out, but I think you just need to kind of be pretty good at everything. I'm looking at guys that gain strokes in all four categories. Maybe they aren't super elite at anything, but they don't have any glaring weaknesses. I think

I think if you do have weaknesses, it's going to be exposed on this course. And if I had to pick one, I would probably want it to be putting because I do think that short game matters here a lot with these small greens. I do think that off the tee matters here as well, despite the wide fairways. If you watch, if you actually watch some of the highlights from like the president's cup,

you can really play offense on this course if you're driving the ball well, and it turns into a course where you're playing total defense if you're not driving the ball well. And then, of course, obviously, approach matters more.

always. So I'm not really looking at too many specialists per se. I kind of just want like an all around kind of solid skillset. If there was one specific skillset that I would want to highlight, it probably would be long iron play. And I talked about that in my Sunday preview. I'll shout out a tweet from my buddy, Ron PGA splits on Twitter, but in 2019, 33.5% of approach shots came from 200 yards plus that's absurd. And it's,

And it's, it's 15% more than tour average. So that would probably be something that's worth looking at, in my opinion. And I think it makes sense. If you look at some of the holes, there are a couple of holes where it doesn't really make a ton of sense to hit driver, but then you're kind of just left with this longer approach shot. And then the holes where you can hit driver, they're just pretty long anyway.

Yeah, no, I totally agree. That makes a lot of sense. I didn't know that, that stat with that specificity, but that you're right. That's a lot of shots from 200 plus. I mean, that is, that is way over your, you know, your standard PGA tournament course. So I definitely have that built into my model for sure.

Let's dig into the favorites. See, I'm going to give you all of the guys below 25 to one on bet us. We have John Rom at nine to one Dustin Johnson at 14 to one. I've seen him as high as 18 Jordan Spieth at 16 Colin Morikawa at 18 Brooks at 18.

20. Xander Shoffley at 20. Rory McIlroy at 22. Bryson DeChambeau at 25. Justin Thomas at 25 to 1 as well. There are a lot of numbers around. You can shop around with these guys. I would encourage you to throw out how many numbers that you can find on these guys. If this

tier. Is there anyone that you're betting? I gave you a lot of good guys that we could have a lot of long conversation about. So, I mean, I think most people will say, well, these numbers are too short. However, I think it depends on where you're shopping. Like I think you just said, correct me if I'm wrong, that you had, or what you're looking at now is that you have Jordan Spieth at 16 to one. Is that accurate? Correct. So I'm looking at a place where Jordan Spieth is 12 to one, which is a garbage number, but 16 to one,

Because I like Jordan Spieth this week, I'm not in love with anybody 16-1, especially with this field. I mean, it's packed. But I think if I were going to pick out a couple guys that I would at least consider either making the bet or seeking them out in matchups, it would probably be Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka. I just think, you know,

You're right that the off the tee game matters here, but I think a Jordan Spieth has been a little bit better off the tee as a lot better. Yeah, a lot better. I should say a lot better. You're right. As the months have gone by, you know, the only reason I say a little better, I think I only qualified it like that because he's still sort of not in that elite status off the tee, like compared to like a John Rahm, for example, but, but you know, you're right. It is a lot better.

And the approach game is usually there for Jordan Spieth. And then of course, the putting can get red hot and he's just kind of like a master at navigating pretty much any course. So I think Jordan Spieth is a guy I'm definitely looking at. And I'll say this, he's not normally on my radar, but I'll tell you in DFS and in betting, Jordan Spieth sticks out to me. John Rahm's number is always going to be too low. So it's just not something I'm ever going to consider. I'm curious to what you say about

because I think his number is interesting. I just wonder what his win equity is and if it's representative of his outright number. What's your thought on Xander? You know, I don't like Xander this week. I'm not playing him. I...

am not... I shouldn't say I'm not playing him because I was actually looking at the early ownership projections on Fantasy National, and I know that that is going to change. We're recording this on Monday evening for context, but

he is, he, there's been like about 1200 lineups generated so far in fantasy national and Xander Shoffley and is in 0.2% of them. Like that's just stupid. That's just absolutely stupid. So I, there's a very good chance at, and that will go up as well. But,

There's a very good chance that if Xander is hovering around 6% or 7%, of course I'm going to play Xander. It's bent grass greens. I don't think that we should overthink this one. There is a weird thing with winning recently that I get, and I think that there is some merit to maybe he's still riding a little bit high from the gold medal win. I don't

follow Xander on Instagram. I follow Xander's caddy on Instagram. I follow Xander's caddy's wife on Instagram. I follow Xander's agent on Instagram. They're having the time of their life right now. They are all pumped. They're all happy. And I think you could look at that two different ways. I think this is maybe the most confident that Xander has been in quite some time. I think that win was really, really just important to him and important for him and for his future. But

I just, from a betting perspective too, I just couldn't get there. And it wasn't as much of a knock on Xander as it was kind of how bullish I am on a few other guys in this range. Oh, interesting. So let's see. You're going to have to tell your secrets now. Okay. All right. Okay. I...

I bet Rory pretty big twice now. I bet him at 22 to one. I bet him at 26 to one. I know that some of my buddies are with me on this one. I think he's going to be a pretty popular bet. Feinberg and I were gushing about him all morning. I'm going to give you two angles with Rory Seau. One is stats-based and the other is narrative-based. I'll give you the stats one first.

He gained 12.5 strokes ball striking in Memphis. That is the best ball striking week he has had in over two years.

years. Rory is over a large sample size, one of the best ball strikers in the history of golf. And even he doesn't do that very often. It's just really, really hard to do. And I look back at some of his results in 2019 and 2017 and 2014, where he was on top of the world and he was achieving ball striking marks like that. And

It's just a lot of wins, Sia. And I think when somebody is hitting the ball that well, it takes a lot of pressure off you. You basically just need to putt okay to be in the mix. I mean, he finished 12th in Memphis, losing 6.2 strokes short game in putting. He wins that thing pretty easily if he's just okay with the putter. So that's my stats angle. Here's my narrative angle.

I think that's something at the Olympics. I don't know what it was, but this guy was moping around. Any quote from him was tinged with, wow, this guy is maybe just a little burnt out right now. Maybe golf isn't the biggest priority for him right now. He talked

about kind of being content with all the majors that he had. That freaked a lot of people out. I'm not going to rehash the whole thing. As I mentioned all the time, just listen to the no laying up guys on this topic. Not only do they know Roy personally, but they can probably articulate it way better than I can. But

Then the Olympics happens and he's awesome by the way. And it's like, whoa, I can't remember the last time I've heard Rory talk this way. He's like talking about how much this means to him and he's getting emotional. And I think maybe the Olympics and representing his country, maybe it reignited something in him because he followed it up the next week with the best ball striking week he's had in two years. Am I crazy for thinking that there might be something there?

No, no, this was a topic on the first cut, which I recorded just a couple hours ago. I think both Rick and Greg were pretty big on Rory as well. I wasn't at the time, but...

And then I took a second look. So you're right. Not only did he gain 12.35 ball striking at the WGC, but it's now six tournaments in a row where not only is he gaining ball striking, but he's gaining significantly ball striking. In fact, over those six tournaments, his worst ball striking performance was gaining four. I believe that was at the U.S. Open.

or maybe it was at the Memorial. It's 2014 Rory Sia. Yeah. I mean, it certainly looks like it because if that's his, if that's his bad ball striking moment, because the other ones are like gaining it, gaining seven, gaining, you know, almost five. So the short game, I don't think, you know, to your point, it doesn't really worry me too much. I mean, the around the green game has been a little spotty, but I,

I'm not too afraid of that. And I'm not really afraid of the putting. I thought at the Olympics, even though he gained with the putter, I thought there were a lot of like easy ones that he actually kind of missed or flat out just misread where he was just way off, you know, for some reason. And I just don't, I don't really see that being an issue with Rory. So no, I totally get it. First of all, did you say you got him at 26 to one? Because I got him at, I got him at 26 to one. I think it's William Hill, which is,

That's a first cut, right? Yeah, I was going to say something negative, but I'm going to refrain because that is a huge number for Rory. I mean, yeah, obviously they reduced it to 22 or whatever it is. I mean, I think I see it now at 20. I think it might be on drafting. So I placed the bet with my buddy in Nevada. Shout out, Luke.

And he told me that within, I did it this afternoon, and he told me that he said it was down to 18 to one at William Hill. Maybe it's 20, but I thought 26 was stupid. So I'm not surprised. No, I mean, 26 is, yeah, that's a little strange because I'm seeing...

I mean, that's like Daniel Berger territory, who I like as well. But like, that's, I mean, I see Bryson at 25 to one. This is DraftKings, mind you, but like, you know, no, Roy should not be anywhere close. Even in a field like this, he shouldn't be 26. I would think 18 to one would probably be the right number on Roy, considering all of these guys at the top, but no lower than that. That's very interesting. So-

Yeah, hopefully I can convince you on Rory because I'm all in on the guy this week. And then I kind of need your help on kind of trying to figure out the rest of this kind of section. See, and I feel like it's probably more prevalent for us to spend more time on this section than I usually do because I just look at the Northern Trust historically. And I know it's been played at different courses, but it is always –

a top guy. And I, I believe I'm pulling this stat from my buddy, Mark golf bets, one-on-one on Twitter, but I believe that no one lower than 42nd in the official world golf rankings has won this tournament in the last 10 years. Um, I there's a lot of, I'm not looking at them right in front of me, but there's a lot of, uh, correlation between guys who have won all

already, guys who are high up in the FedEx Cup, guys who have been playing well or in good form. And I really think to me that this is a week where, and I don't do this often, but the way that I have my card structured now is...

I have a big bet on Rory at 26, a big bet on Justin Thomas at 27. And then I'm deciding between kind of Spieth, DJ and Brooks for that final spot. And I have two tiny bombs over 100 to one.

So I think, I think if we're talking betting here, because Jon Rahm is prohibitive. I mean, I don't think you can bet Jon Rahm in any market, whether it's top 20, top 40. I mean, you can bet him in a matchup if you get the right one. But I think maybe if we're looking at odds that I think are favorable, I think Brooks Koepka is probably the answer. I mean, I understand that DJ may be coming on and this is around the time, you know, we really saw him coming on last year as well. Yeah.

But listen, you know, Brooks, okay, 54th at the WGC. Not very good, obviously. It was the first time, and it looks like five tournaments where he actually lost on approach. So something was clearly going on there because the four tournaments prior to that, he had gained four on approach, almost five the tournament before that, two, and then 7.81. That would have been, I believe, at the PGA Championship or the Palmetto. That's at the PGA Championship. So his approach game, you know, that's just one bad tournament.

Around the green, he was a complete disaster at the WGC. Again, that seems like an anomaly. He's not necessarily great around the green, but he's certainly never, ever this bad. So to me, for whatever reason, I'm willing to sort of do what

PGA tout did with the, with Kevin Kisner, you know, like just throw away the last, just throw away the last tournament. No, no, I'm not saying I'm going to. Okay. I was going to say, I thought you were going to like plant your flag and add to the extent that he did with, I was going to say that'd be admirable. Yeah, I would know. I don't have the confidence to do that really for anybody. But, but, but I will say this losing six around the green, losing, you know, 1.28 on approach. It just doesn't seem like the Brooks that really,

we, you know, used to know. So I'm willing to kind of throw that, that tournament out. And then I see him as a really great ball striker. It's a really important tournament. No, it's not a major, but it's certainly a major field. And if it's around the green game is like a zero, which is certainly possible. And if his putter is okay, I think he's a guy at the number that we're seeing. I think he's a guy that could absolutely win this tournament.

Okay. So I completely agree. I really like Brooks this week and I haven't heard a ton of chatter about him. And I think maybe you're right. That's because he was so bad in Memphis, but I,

I'm with you. I don't think you can put any stock into that at all. He had a bad round one and I think he might've just checked out a little bit at maybe he just didn't. I don't think Brooks when he's in a tie for 58th is going to devote the amount of time and attention to a green side chip the way that he would if he was in contention. And I think this happens often with Brooks where sometimes when he's not in a tournament, he,

won't grind for that 22nd place finish and it jukes his stats a little bit. And if you look at how Brooks has performed coming off a bad week or more specifically a bad iron week, he's awesome half the time. I think you have to ignore the numbers with him a little bit. And as long as he's healthy,

I think Liberty National sets up great for him. All the chatter about the JT number and the Rory number, and I'm one of those guys too. I'm all in on those guys. But I was just saying this to my buddy Luke this morning. I would not have blinked if Brooks was 14-1 this week. And you can find him at 24.

Right. That's the thing. It seems like the number that you're getting value out of the number. I mean, I see him here at 22 and it just, it seems too long to me. Like I think if we're being fair, I think he should probably be somewhere between Colin and Xander and he's not. So there's value there.

Okay, so let me just ask you real quick then, because I've really kind of narrowed it down between Brooks and DJ. Is there anything about DJ that is kind of, you're a little bit lesser on him, or is it just kind of a number play? Okay, so as I check out my model here, again, you know...

He hasn't been great on approach. And he has worse than all the top dogs in all of my modeling too. You're right. He just hasn't been playing to the same level that they have. Right. And so what you're doing, if you're taking DJ, whether it's DFS or betting is you're just kind of, you're just kind of assuming that DJ is going to flip the switch, which for the record, I'm totally fine with that analysis. Unless,

it's in a tournament like this where now you're having to flip the switch and be this stacked field. If you're having to flip the switch and it's, you know, the Valspar, which you mentioned earlier, like that's a different ball game because you're like, all right, well, if he flips the switch, not only does he win, but he wins by like five strokes because, you know, because of this field.

But here it's a completely different story. So I just, I don't know, even if I'm predicting the upward trajectory, it's not the Rory argument that you made. Rory, we've actually seen it. Like we see the stroke scale metrics and all of that, and it looks really good. But with DJ, it doesn't look really good. So I can't count on A, flipping the switch and B, flipping it so much that he overcomes the elite crust of this field.

Well, the only thing I would push back on just a little bit is I was encouraged by Memphis. I think what I saw in Memphis was better for him where he kind of gained strokes. And I believe he gained strokes in all four major categories. The off the tee got better and the irons continue to get better with him. His 3.2 strokes on approach. Again, here's the thing, Cia, to

harken back to your point, we're talking about DJ gaining 3.2 strokes approach and being like, oh my God, this is great. This is the best iron week that DJ's had in months when guys like Rory and JT are just casually gaining sex and don't even get me started on Morikawa. So I think it

You're right. It's kind of context matters with DJ. The only case that I would make is he's won the Northern Trust three times. I know that they were at different courses, but he clearly has an affinity for Northeast golf. I'm sure Paulino will have a lot of fun. There's a lot of shopping in the area. They'll probably get a house in the Hamptons.

He always tends to play his best golf this time of year. So this was the exact same time last year when he just absolutely caught fire and he dominated Liberty National in the 2017 president's

Cup. So I think with more DJ, he's not going to get there statistically when you match him up against some of these other guys. It's more of a, well, historically, DJ has always shown us at this time of year that he kind of catches fire on these types of courses in these types of tournaments. Yeah, no, and I agree with that. And again, I would just go back to, I believe that he can turn it on.

I just don't believe that he can turn it on and beat all of the other guys in this field. So that's the only sort of like nuance I'm incorporating there. You're right on approach that, you know, it looked pretty solid at least the last couple of tournaments, but then, you know, off the tee hasn't really looked that good in spite of the fact that prior to the last two tournaments, he'd been gaining significantly off the tee. And then all of a sudden it's, there's a drop off there. So I think the game is rounding into form. I just don't think it's rounding into form enough. Yeah.

I want to give you my JT case in a second, but before we do that, do you have any thoughts on... Is there anyone else in this range that you didn't want to talk about? We didn't really talk about Bryce in a ton. Yeah, and we didn't really talk about Morikawa either. Morikawa either, correct. You know, the thing with Morikawa that probably bothers me a little bit is the putter, but we know he can pop with the putter. I just... You know, when it comes to his price and his outright odds, I'm just not in love with it. I mean, I just...

it's just not an attractive enough number for me to be like, yeah, I want to play more Cal Bryson. Um,

I've heard, you know, I've seen on Twitter, I guess earlier today, maybe yesterday. I think there are some people on Bryson. I'm just not going to be one of those guys. I'm not a fan of him on approach in particular. I just don't think it's been a good year for him. And again, it's one thing if the field is a little watered down, but this field is not watered down. I don't think Bryson has it all figured out. If he gains off the tee, that's great. But there's a few other shots he has to take, you know, after the tee shot. So it's just one of those things where I'm not, I'm just not interested.

Yeah, I think you could make an argument for him on this course. It's definitely not a course where you can just aimlessly bomb away with no repercussions, but it does have big fairways. And I kind of watched the President's Cup highlights and Northern Trust highlights, and you're hitting driver a lot. And on the holes that maybe you can hit driver, the course is still structured, as we mentioned earlier, where you have a longer approach shot. And Bryson is second on tour in proximity from 200 yards plus.

That doesn't mean he's a good iron player necessarily. It just means that he's hitting an eight iron from 200 yards when a lot of other guys are hitting four irons. So I, yeah, I don't think I'm going to end up getting there. Just to shout out John one more time, we were talking offline about how we do not trust the New Jersey fans at all.

Right. Yeah. I've heard that comment as well. That was something we were discussing earlier today as well. That's really interesting. I mean, listen, I'm the king of building narratives that are completely meaningless, but this one might not be meaningless. I mean, it's just, I

I agree with you. It's not really impacting whether or not I'm playing him because, and for the record, you're right. He's great from 200 plus. And by the way, he's not bad from 175 to 200. So if you want to create kind of like a bigger metric and you want to go 175 to 225 or whatever, 200 plus actually, you know,

measures out to. He's really good there. The problem is on the other end of that, when you get to 75 to 100, he's just not there. So there's going to be a decent amount of shots coming from that range, 75 to 125, for example, as well. So it's just one of those things. I can't get around to it. But the New Jersey, New York narrative, maybe he crashes and burns. I don't know. Maybe a guy like Bryson, maybe that ends up motivating him. I know we think it's not motivating him now, but maybe that's

That's just sort of a result of him not playing the way we think he should be playing. Maybe he turns it around and uses it as motivation. Maybe that's the narrative we should be going with. Yeah, I could see it. I could definitely see it. I think there's just...

I think there's a lot of noise surrounding the situation right now. And, and for what it's worth since the Brooksy thing kind of started, he hasn't had a top five. Now I think that's a very flawed statistic because he was in contention at the U S open and he was in contention at Memphis with a shot to win on both of those tournaments, but he also shot a combined 82 on the back nine of both of those tournaments. And I, you know,

I don't know. Maybe there's something there. Maybe there's not. It doesn't really matter, Sia, because I would rather bet Justin Thomas at a slightly bigger number. And I want to give you the case real quick before we move on to this next range. But JT, he's probably my second favorite golfer in the world, or 1B with Xander. And I've actually been very critical of Justin Thomas, Sia, over the past couple of weeks. I think there's...

There are guys that wanted to bet him at the U S open at the British at, at, at Memphis, at the Olympics. And, and I just kept saying like, I feel like I know Justin Thomas, I've been following this guy so closely for his entire career. He just doesn't have it right now. And the stats obviously did back that up, but it was still more of an eye testing for me. He just like, he looked like he was working a lot harder than he usually does.

And that is because he was having to rely on his short game and his putter way more than he usually does because the irons just weren't there at the time. But...

They got a little bit better at the Olympics and then boom, Memphis 6.1 strokes on approach. That is the JT that we know and love. And the putting is what it is with JT. You can't get, you can't bet JT and get mad when he loses five strokes putting, because that's just part of it. And you're betting on the ceiling. And when he puts, okay, he generally wins. He's won 14 times and he's 28 years old. So, you know, like remember at the players when he drifted to 20 and everyone was all over him, um,

everyone's like, Drifty JT, it's the number play. I looked back at how he was playing right before the players, and there's actually more statistical basis in terms of positives this week for him than there was the week at the players. And this time, he's 27 to 1 in a field of 125 of the best players in the world instead of 156 players in the world. So I think you got to do it, or I had to at least.

I don't mind the argument. I mean, for me, you start to like, because I like Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka, and I love your Roy McIlroy argument, you know, at a certain point, I sort of run out of like, otherwise I'm kind of picking everybody. But I totally get it. I mean, I like how the approach game is rebounded. I mean, now if you technically...

technically if you look at it it's about i mean forgive me for kind of counting out loud here five six seven it's technically nine tournaments in a row where he's gained on approach now a few of those were like literally like 0.10 and 0.04 but the point is the approach game has come around and the putter can pop with anybody especially jt so i i don't i don't really have a problem with it i i think i think it's a fine play like for justin thomas he's the type of guy

And I might say this about Roy too, but much less so. He's the type of guy that I won't have anywhere near my DFS lineups, but I might just go ahead and hedge the complete fade with an outright ticket or a top 20 ticket or however, whatever I think the best bet is. So I like him more in the space that we're talking about rather than let's say the DraftKings or, you know, FanDuel space.

I'm completely with you on that sentiment. It was a number play for me. I haven't decided how I'm going to handle him DFS yet, but it was just a pure number play for me at 27 to one. I'm going to give you a bunch of guys in this 25 to 50 range CS. So

Now we get into Abraham answer territory at 28 to one. You've got Hideki at 30, Scotty Scheffler at 30, Daniel Berger at 33, Patrick Cantlay at 33, Webb Simpson at 33, Cameron Smith at 35, Harris English at 35, Victor Hovland at 35, Paul Casey at 40, Patrick Reed at 40, Sam Burns at 45, Joaquin Neiman at 50, and Adam Scott at 50. There's numbers everywhere.

all over the place for these guys. And we can even include like Finau and Hatton and Sungjae Im and Matt Fitzpatrick and Corey Connors in this conversation as well. But I assume since you seem to be a little bit lighter on the high-end tier than I am, you maybe have some guys in this range? Yeah, there's some guys I like in this range. I mean, you know, as far as

As far as an outright is concerned that there's a couple of guys in particular that I think probably have value. Although I, what did you say your Scotty Scheffler number was? 30. I've seen him at 33. Okay. Um, I like Hovland. I like Paul Casey. I like Scotty Scheffler. Uh,

quite a bit. I think those are worthy plays both in DFS and in the outright or again, top 20, top 40 market. Those are probably in this range, the three guys I'm focusing on. I like Berger. I think Berger is a really good top 20 guy. I don't think he's a great outright guy. So that's why I'm kind of hesitating there. But I think the three guys I mentioned are the three guys I like the most in this range.

Well, you're speaking my language with Scotty Scheffler, man. I think, again— By the way, the reason I asked you about Scotty Scheffler was because I see 28 to 1. I happen to be looking at DraftKings right now. I know I probably should be looking at William Hill. But the point is, whether it's 28 or 30, I was unpleasantly surprised at how low the number was.

So I was kind of hoping you would say, well, I see him at 35, or it sounds like he might be 33. The best I've seen is 33. Yeah, and I just don't love the number that I'm looking at. At 20, I don't even really love 30. I love him as a player to do really well. I just would have thought his number would have been closer to 35. That's all. Me too. I thought that he would still be above Hovland.

even though Scheffler has been so much better in big events. I think the number thing is really fascinating to me because you can kind of interpret it two ways where you can say,

The number being so low, it may be telling you something about how books don't want you betting this guy. But then on the contrary, that kind of kills my argument for betting JT because I thought that the JT number and even the Rory number a little bit was bigger than it should be. And thus I'm,

all in. So it's, it's kind of tricky to figure out you're right. I think my main reason for probably not being able to get there with Sheffler from an outright perspective is that I still don't think that he should have lower odds than Berger or Cantlay who have a combined four wins since the restart. And obviously Scott, he's still searching for number one. I mean, he's, he's doing pretty much damn everything besides when I, I,

I'll say the stat one more time just because I think it's such a great stat, but there have been 12 playoff events, WGCs, and majors in the last calendar year. Scottie Scheffler has not finished worse than 20th in all 12 of them. The only player to approach that level of consistency in big tournaments is Jon Rahm, and even Rahm was 11 for 20. Yeah, it's really, really incredible. And he's just one of those guys that can get really,

really hot and really just rack up the birdies. I mean, last 36 birdie or better gained. He's number two in this field. There's there's, and by the way, DK points. I mean, he's, he's 10th in this field. I actually thought he'd be higher than that, but again, this is only a 36 round sample size, but yeah,

He's the type of guy that can really kind of, A, win a tournament, even though he hasn't shown it, or win your DFS tournament. So it's just one of those things you're kind of getting him while he's continuing to be on the rise, as opposed to a guy that's sort of settled as like a top 10 guy. I think he has top 10 potential.

Can I hear your briefly here, your Hovland slash Casey thoughts? Because those were two guys that I was looking at pretty closely as well. Casey particularly, I mean, he rates out so well for me every single week.

but I think this is a really good course for him based on all of the statistics that I was kind of looking at. And same thing with Hovland too. Yeah. So Hovland's a bit more of a leap of faith for me because I'm not in love with his recent form, but Casey, but both of them grade out really well in my model for one and Casey a little bit higher than Hovland. First of all, Tita Green, he's,

what he's number two in this field last 36 rounds. I mean, he's obviously like a monster tee to green. And I don't think, I think if people were to hear that, that are listening right now, I think if I, if I had said, Hey, you know, guess what, what it is. I think they probably would have said, you know, I don't know, 12th, 15th. No, he's, he's number two again.

It depends on what sample size you want to use. I happen to be using 36 rounds this week, but DK points, he's number eight. That's something I just like to look at. It's not something that's really incorporated into my model. Strokes gain par five. He's number two. Proximity 200 plus, number one. So there's so many...

There's so many things that are sort of going for him. By the way, around the green, he's number 11. The putter, 59th. That's not terrible. It's just about average. And so he's just popping in really everywhere. The only thing that I see any sort of real deficiency is 75 to 100 proximity. He just really hasn't been good. He's certainly less than average in the field there, but...

He's just one of those guys that gets overlooked. And so therefore, he's always going to have a good price on DraftKings and he's always going to have a good outright number. Now, do I think he's going to win this tournament in this field? Probably not. But he's definitely a guy to look at if you're not looking at outright. He's definitely got to look at top 20, top 40, DraftKings, whatever you're playing, because he's just not really appreciated. Can he have a bad tournament? Yeah, that happens all the time. But like, this is a guy that clearly has value.

Can I give you a quick Webb Simpson case just as somebody that I'm not going to bet but going to play in DraftKings?

He lost strokes putting at the Wyndham and finished one stroke out of that playoff. Now, I get it. It's his home course, whatever. But he gained 8.5 strokes on approach last week. That is the best iron week of Webb Simpson's career. And I know that Liberty National doesn't feel like a Webb course. And I'm going to talk about this a little bit more with a player farther down the board that I like as well. But

I mean, it's not Torrey Pines either. Like, I think he can compete here. I never really look at distance off the tee as much as I look at long iron play because I think there's so many guys that are short off the tee but still end up competing and playing very well on long courses because they're such a great long iron player or they have such a great short game. Look at someone like Morikawa. Look at someone like Patrick Reed. And, you know, Webb's long iron play isn't elite.

by any means, but it's better than you would think. And I mean, he finished 12th here in 2019 and 15th in 2013. So I think he's a very viable option this week, in my opinion. I totally agree. And I think he is definitely on the rise. I mean, that is a name that I probably should have said because I am going to be playing him in DFS. I know that much. I like the price. I think he's $8,900.

So, you know, what's interesting about Webb is, you know, he had COVID, he had injuries, you know, during the course of this year. I heard an interview, I heard him, I think it was on Sirius XM PGA Tour radio after his round four at the WGC.

And he literally, first of all, he sounded really confident going into the window, like you think he would, but he was just not just confident going into the window at that time, but he was confident about his game. And he literally said, you know, earlier this year, you know, I had some problems with COVID and some injuries, but I'm feeling really good about my game right now. And, and,

you know, it sounded like, well, that's just something like golfers say, but you could tell the way he was saying it, he was really confident and he showed it at the window. This is a guy that, you know, earlier this season, we were talking about as like, not in a, not like a top, you know, like top tier golfer, like a top five guy, but he was certainly on the next level down. And now we've sort of relegated him to like, well, he's like a top 20, top 25 guy, you know, when we're looking at crowded fields, but

Honestly, if those things really were affecting him like it looks like they were, and if his game is coming into form, he absolutely has a chance this week. I want to open this up, Sia, to kind of anyone now here into that kind of longer shot range. And there are a lot of interesting guys in the 60s and the 70s and the 80s and the 90s.

So anyone, as we get a little bit farther down the board that kind of has your attention, you could still talk a little Hovland too. I know we didn't do a full Hovland thing yet as well. Well, Hovland, this actually segues really nicely because I like, I like Hovland and I like Jason Kokrak.

I see it 65 to one. So I don't know what William Hill has him at 80 on bet us actually 80 on bet us. That is such a beautiful thing. So the reason I think you can bring them both up in tandem is because they have one sort of major shortfall and that's the around the green game, which we have said is going to be important here. But,

But they're so good everywhere else that I think, especially in Hovland's case, it's funny when Matt Wolfe and Colin Morikawa and Hovland, when they came up, it was always like this rotation where every couple of months we were like, oh, Matt Wolfe is the guy. And then it was like, oh, Victor Hovland's definitely the guy. Morikawa's probably third. And now it's like fully rotated for like a good like four months where it's like Colin Morikawa. And we kind of forget about Victor Hovland. So

And the reason we forget about them is because the recent form isn't necessarily that great in which is what is happening to Victor Hovland. But if I told you Victor Hovland wins this tournament or comes in second and, you know, top fives, the next, you know, three tournaments or, you know, it's a bad example because it's the playoffs, but you know what I mean? All of a sudden we might be like, well,

Is it Victor Hovland actually that's the guy? We know Matt Wolfe is out of the conversation, but I just feel like we're sort of forgetting about Victor Hovland because of the emergence of so many other guys, particularly Colin Morikawa. And it wouldn't shock me at all if he just kind of emerges. He waits out so well pretty much everywhere in spite of having some recent bad play. It's just the around the green game. And the same goes for Jason Kokrak. Jason Kokrak is one of those guys that can really score. He can really rack up the birdies.

and he's good off the tee. He's good on approach. He can get really hot with the putter. He just has a struggle with the around the green game. And I'm not necessarily saying I'm overlooking it. I'm just saying if he's zero around the green, or if he happens to not really, because he's striking it so well, the around the green game doesn't come in as much for him, if that happens to be the case, then maybe I'm not too worried about it, or I shouldn't be too worried about it after all.

Yeah. So I agree with you. I do think that some of the shine might be off Hovland right now, just because he hasn't been contending as much, but you're right. The ball striking is still right there. He's never played here before, but as you mentioned, statistically, he sets up incredibly well for this course on paper. He's awesome with his wedges, unbelievable with his long arms. He's the only player in the field to be top 10 in all of the proximity distances that I was looking at correlated with Liberty national. And

Again, I don't know if I can fit him on my betting card, but man, I've been staring at that 35. I think he went off at shorter numbers in the majors. So I'm with you. I think this shines a little bit off. And what did you kind of see with Kokrak? Because the thing with Kokrak that kind of jumped out to me is

I'm not huge on comps this week. I think that Liberty National is a very weird, modern course. They moved a lot of dirt, and it was a lot of just billionaires that got together and were like, I want to build the most well-manicured course ever. And it doesn't play like a links course at all, but there is wind.

and it is like on a body of water. And it's just kind of like this unicorn of a course that every time I tried to find a comp, I was like, eh, I don't really think so. The best I could do was, it kind of feels to me like a more exposed Shadow Creek with wind and Jason Kokrak won at Shadow Creek.

I love that. And honestly, the number that you're getting on Jason, whether it's 80 or 65, anything in between. First of all, he's 18th in my model. Again, I'm using a 36 round sample size here, but 17th off the tee, 37th on approach. The proximities that we're more interested in, particularly 200 plus, he's sixth. Birdie or better gain, 13th. Strokes gain par five, 11th.

G.I.R., Greens and Regulation game, 30th. So, you know, all of these are, again, around the green, it's bad, 104th. Is there another bad stat here? I mean, bogey avoidance, he's not great at, 75 to 100. He's less than average, at least less average relative to this field.

But, again, you're looking for upside, especially when you're picking out rights or you're in GPPs, for example. And I think Jason Kokrak, we know his upside because he's proven it twice already this year. And, again, this is a different field. But I think at a number like 65 or 75 or 80 to 1 like BetUS has, I think it's worth a shot.

I'm totally with you. Okay. Before we get into everyone, because there are a couple of guys farther down the board that I just want to touch on as well, but I want to give you, I think this guy is going to be in the winning DraftKings lineup this week. I'm not going to bet him. I just don't have room for him, but

What about Sungjae? So here's my thing with Sungjae. He was great at Sedgefield. He gained 4.6 on approach and 3.2 off the tee. He lost 2.4 strokes putting. And I think you have to be a little careful with the Wyndham leaderboard. So Sungjae finished tied for 24th, but he was only four strokes outside of the playoffs and he lost 2.4 strokes putting. So Sungjae is a really good putter. If he puts anything close to his baseline, he's right there.

And I think the reason why I bring up the DraftKings angle is I was just looking at the early stuff with Fantasy National. And I think people only want to play Sungjae when he's on Bermuda or in Florida. And I totally get that. He is awesome on those shorter Bermuda courses.

But I think he's a better, I think you're selling him short if you call him a specialist. He's just, I think he's just a really good player and he could play well anywhere. He finished second at the masters on bank grass and we're getting a giant ownership discount because this isn't a Sungjae course, but this is also the most consistency that we've seen out of him all year from a ball striking perspective.

Agree on the consistency part. And it's so funny because, you know, we do consider him a bent grass, excuse me, a Bermuda guy. And, you know, we had the last two tournaments we had Bermuda. He lost 4.64 and 2.39. So he lost a total of seven strokes on this quote preferred green. And you're right.

he's shown he can putt on bent grass. So like maybe, maybe for whatever reason, Bermuda isn't really favorable for him and it really is bent grass. And if that's the case, and if he actually gains with the putter and gains something like somewhere between 2.35 and 7.76 ball striking, which is, you know, the two numbers he's had for the Wyndham and the WGC. In other words, let's say he gains five and a half strokes ball striking and he gains two or three with the putter, then,

oh, okay, this guy actually has a chance to win this thing. So, I mean, the around the green game is totally fine with Sung Jae. A couple misses, a couple... More often than not, he gains around the green. So I don't have... That's interesting. So I think I have a blind spot for Sung Jae, to be honest with you. I almost never play him

I never really lived to regret it, but that's sort of my recency bias though, because at the beginning of this year, he was pretty bad and people were playing it. I'm like, you know, I'm sorry to hear that. Like I haven't been playing him for a while, but to your point,

I mean, there was like a three-month stretch where Sanjay was like laughably bad. And it has completely rebounded, I guess, over the last like two to three months. And so I think he's a really smart play. It's funny because I wasn't going to play him in DFS. Now I'm going to play him a little bit and I get to blame you if I'm wrong. What could go wrong? I mean, this range is just chalked

This range is, I want to do a quick thing on these two guys and then, and then I'll take it back to you for kind of the longer guys. But this range is just, it's really weird to me, man. Like I look at someone like Terrell Hatton and I just think that once again, he's mispriced in DraftKings and the betting market. And I don't think that the huge perception is that he is mispriced because it doesn't look like he's still going to carry ownership. So maybe I'm in the minority by thinking he's mispriced, but yeah,

And I don't think this is a links course at all, like I said. But the guy was 30-1 a month ago at Royal St. George's, and everyone loved him. The one comp that I do like is Shadow Creek, and he finished third there and gained nine strokes on approach. So it's not like he's playing that bad either. He just finished 17th in Memphis, and he's good across the board. So Hatton has my interest. I gave a long look at Finau. I don't know.

And this is more DraftKings, but no one's going to want to touch. We're kind of touching more into the DraftKings side. But listen, if no one's going to want to touch this guy, and I get it, he hasn't been playing well, but man, this is a pretty good course for him. And he's kind of a little bit turning into Patrick Reed and Scotty Sheffer a little bit where...

Whenever he's the class of the field, he sucks. But if it's a major or a bigger event, he's good. Like he's three top 15s in majors this year. He always plays well in the FedEx Cup playoffs. And he's a fringe Ryder Cup guy too. He needs to play well if he wants to have a chance. So you could take that angle if you want as well. Any thoughts on those guys before? And then after, if no thoughts on those guys, you can toss out some longer bombs as well.

I think Hatton's interesting. Hatton's been very underwhelming this year, and I think that's why he's sort of completely off people's radar, in spite of actually being pretty decent lately, including that last tournament you referenced where he finished 17th. And frankly, the stats really aren't that bad. The proximity that we've been focused on, 200-plus stats,

He's second in this field over the last 36 rounds. I mean, that's great. That's really impressive off the tee 24th approach 19th. You know, the putter and around the green or, you know, just about average, but he's the type of guy that has plenty of upside. I don't mind hatting at all. As far as female from a DFS standpoint, he makes a lot of sense. Like you said, I mean, I would never touch him in the outright market or a head to head or top 40, but,

given his price and given his upside, if you hearken back to earlier this year or last year or his entire career, he certainly has the upside. And so I think we talked about him earlier today, actually, and it was kind of one of those things where it's like, if you're playing 10 lineups, put him in one, especially if it's like a bigger tournament, like maybe an MME or something, just go ahead and throw him in. He could be the type of guy that could win a big tournament for you because nobody just... He's just one of those names people are like...

two months ago, people were still playing it, but now people are just completely off it. You're so right. It's like a total hold your nose play. It kind of reminds me of Patrick Cantlay at the PGA Championship where Cantlay had missed four cuts in a row. And I think he was 3% ownership. No one wanted to touch Patrick Cantlay. And then he ended up finishing well at the PGA Championship and I'm sure made a lot of people a lot of money.

What about as we dig kind of deeper into this range, into the like 100 plus, and these guys see it can be in any context, maybe if it's not the outright market, but just guys you're kind of high on in DFS or in kind of top 40.

Yeah, there's a few guys that are interesting to me. One of them, and he's at 101, he's had a lot of time off for whatever reason. Hasn't really been that good lately. But if you were tracking him a couple months ago and you were building a model, he was probably number one in your model, depending on what the course was. And his name is Charlie Hoffman. Yeah.

He's one of those guys that like, it's funny, like you look at Charlie Hoffman and I think you say to yourself, like that guy probably for whatever reason, maybe you don't think this. I think this, like he's not a guy that's going to play every tournament. He just doesn't look like he's got, he's like in the shape where he'd be playing like every tournament. And I almost think his sort of fall off over the last couple of months, maybe he was just sort of getting tired or something, but we know the ball striking is there. We know, again, this is narrative building a little bit, but he hasn't played in a while. And I just think,

at 100 to 1, or if you're playing him in DFS, which he's like a flat 7,000, I just think

he's the type of guy that can pop, whether it's in a top 40. I mean, he's not going to win the tournament. Top 40, or maybe you want to take a shot at a top 20 or something. Charlie Hoffman is a guy that I think is really interesting. I mean, as we go down the board, I think you could probably say the same about Keegan Bradley, but I do have a little bit more faith in Hoffman. I see Bradley here at 130 to one. Charles Schwartzel is interesting. He broke everybody's heart last week, including mine, because I had him in

I think my biggest DFS, my most valuable, you know, highest entry DFS lineup, he was definitely in there and he was a last minute switch. I had switched him in. It's just one of those things where you regret it immediately on Thursday. You're like, oh man, you start second guessing like your entire existence. But yeah, Schwartzel is another guy. I think he has interesting odds. As I go down the board, I mean, you're really, obviously you're more looking at top 40s and head to heads, which I'll tell you,

Leviota and Luke List, Seamus Power, maybe Taylor Gooch, who I think you might be a little high on, Cameron Tringale. I think those guys in the top 40, top 20 market are very, very interesting. Okay, good. You gave a lot of good stuff there. The funniest thing that I wanted to just say on Hoffman is like...

you mentioned like, if you looked at this guy, he would be popping in your everyone's models a month ago. He's still popping in my models. Hoffman rated out like incredibly well for me. And Bradley, I'm probably a little bit higher on Keegan than you are. So I bet Keegan, I've placed two very small bets on guys above a hundred to one and Keegan Bradley at one 40 was one of them. And it's a tiny bet. And I know that this tournament is probably going to be won by an elite player, but,

But I do believe that

I think if there's anyone that could kind of weasel their way to a victory here, just based on like a plus seven approach week and maybe a plus one putting week, I think it's Keegan because three of his four wins, it's a major, it's a WGC event and it's a FedEx cup playoff event all on courses where, you know, it's not Wyndham or Detroit golf club where, you know, Keegan is never going to gain six strokes putting, but

But he's hitting the ball unbelievably well still. And I mean, people were hammering this guy at 80 to one at the PGA championship. He's hitting the ball just as well as he was then. And I think Liberty has absolutely shown us that you can kind of get by here with great ball striking and okay putting. So I do love Keegan in this spot.

Yeah, that's interesting. And by the way, if you don't think he can pull it off on a Sunday because the putter is just not going to be good enough in the top 20 market, he's plus 500. Like that's a really rich number. It's a number that honestly, now that you're talking to me about it, like I probably will be taking that. Maybe Charlie Hoffman as well, but plus 500 for top 20. Obviously, if you want to do top 40, you know, probably cut that in half and that's what you'll get. But

I like that play. I've always been a fan of Keegan. I think he's sort of been out of my consciousness a little bit, as has Charlie Hoffman. And for whatever reason, I sort of gravitated. I sort of went to Charlie Hoffman instead of Keegan. And I think it's because I trust Hoffman.

Kegan less on a Sunday than I do Hoffman for whatever reason. But with that said, I don't have to trust him if it's a top 20. You know what I mean? He can have kind of an off putting. The pressure can get to him, even though he's kind of shown us the pressure doesn't necessarily get to him and he's taking down some big events. The only other two guys, or I'll say three, I guess, but the only other three guys that I kind of have interest in down here kind of as top 40 options,

I don't think I'm going to bet this, but Johnny Vegas is playing out of his mind right now, and you can find him at 180 to one. He's totally mispriced in DraftKings too. I have no understanding why he's cheaper right now than Ryan Palmer or Emiliano Grillo or Phil or Sink. He's playing so much better than those guys.

played in the 2017 President's Cup. He finished 38th here in 2019, but lost a combined 7.6 strokes putting in around the green. He's got five top 15 finishes in his last seven starts, including two runner-ups. I know he probably won't win, but man, I don't know how you don't use this guy in DraftKings. Part of me doesn't want to say that,

But he shouldn't be a secret. I mean, he's on an absolute tear right now. The one nitpick I would have in fairness is that he always seems to play way better on easier courses than he does on harder courses.

Yeah, but you're right. I mean, the stats really jump out at you. There was a, you know, I looked at him earlier and for some reason I got off of him, but I can't, as I look at this, I can't really figure out why he doesn't, he certainly doesn't rate out poorly in my model. And really the putting has been flat out good over the last couple

four or five tournaments. I mean, he's gained in three out of four. And, you know, prior to that, he was really poor with the putter, but it looks like he sort of found something there. He's basically a zero around the green, as far as I can tell, at least in terms of recent history. And the ball striking is,

Andy, he hasn't lost ball striking since, let's see here, March 21st? March, yeah. Since the Honda Classic. Yeah, it's unbelievable. It's like if you spend a little bit of time looking at Johnny Vegas's numbers, you'd think he's Rory McIlroy. It's like crazy. The thing that we have to be careful with is he's doing it in much weaker fields.

Yeah, no, that's true. That's a good point. But still, these numbers really kind of jump out at you. It's March 21st, actually, where the Honda Classic was. But I mean, that's pretty incredible. That speaks to a guy that's clearly getting overlooked. Okay, so I'm going to give you one...

more. I think this guy is going to be in, I think this guy's going to make a lot of people, a lot of money this weekend. Hear me out on this one. So Carlos Ortiz is 200 to one. And here's what I like about Carlos Ortiz. I bet him at 200 to one. And I think I was joking with my buddy, Luke about this. We're always higher on Carlos Ortiz than I think everyone else is. I just think he's a little bit of a better player than he gets credit for. And

And statistically, he's pretty good at everything, like good wedges, but it just doesn't have a ton of weaknesses statistically, kind of in terms of just to harken back on what we were talking about at the top is you kind of want well-rounded players. And Carlos Ortiz is a volatile player, like he does miss cuts, but the ball striking has been awesome. Like he's coming off a week in Memphis where he gained five strokes ball striking and

I don't think gaining five strokes ball striking in Memphis is the same as gaining five strokes ball striking at the Wyndham. I think that's pretty impressive for Carlos Ortiz to do that with a field with all the top dogs in it. And that's been consistent with him. He's gained off the tee and three straight starts and on approach and five straight starts as well. So I'm probably getting a little ambitious with the 200 to one, but man, like 6,900, I will be there.

Yeah, I mean, the only issue I have with him, and I think it's kind of an obvious one, is that sometimes the short game isn't really there for him. So I'm kind of looking now round by round because my impression of Ortiz is that

He's prone to a bad round here and there. No, that's definitely true. And that's where he's just going to get really derailed. Like, I mean, yeah, at the Olympics round four, he must've had honestly like heat exhaustion or something. Cause he lost a total of almost 10 strokes. He was terrible at the Olympics. I remember that.

He was like there and then terrible. Yeah, but then he turns it around at the WGC and he plays just fine round one forward for the most part. But yeah, I mean, you know, again, I think if you're looking for the all-around game, he's a little bit of a tough sell. But I also think he has the talent and the upside too. If the around the green and the putter are just...

If he can just get it to average, then he's a guy that can surprise a lot of people. So as a DFS play, I think he's pretty smart. Anyone else you want to throw out here, Sia, before we do kind of a quick recap?

Yeah, I mean, I guess I probably threw it out when I was talking about the top 40 guys. I mean, I'm always going to be kind of waving the hammer and Hank Lebiota flag. I understand that now we're really dealing with a tournament where the talent level is way deeper than these tournaments where he was like top 25. But he won't be 30% anymore. So, you know.

Right. I mean, yeah, that's true. And his DraftKings price is really low. It's $6,300. He's coming off a miscut. If you wanted a top 40, Le'Veon, it's plus $350. I think that's a decent number. Again, we're talking top 40, not top 20. And then Luke List, he's one of those guys that

If you narrow the sample size, like last 36 rounds, he's been okay. Some really bad tournaments, some good ones. Last 12, though, he's really starting to come around. I'm not saying just because of that small sample size, three tournaments that he's like, quote, turned it around. But he's the type of guy that I think might be worth a play in the top 40 at plus 350. Not a guy that's going to win. But if the putter is decent, I think Luke List has a real shot to make some noise.

Okay. I think I covered all of, Oh, I have one more. And you mentioned him. I'm going right back to Taylor Gooch. He's $6,800 on DraftKings. He's 240 to one. They haven't released his top 40 number yet, but the guy gained 5.6, 5.2, excuse me, strokes ball striking last week. And he was just awful on the greens. And I,

I was talking to my buddy Rob about this too, where we may have gotten a little bit, he was high on him last week too, where we may have gotten a little bit hasty with him last week at a course like Sedgefield, whereas he actually might be a better play in these tougher field events. Like if you actually look at it,

33rd at the open 44th at the PGA 18th at Memorial fifth at the players 26 at Wells Fargo 12th at Riviera. Those are all hard, really good golf courses with really good fields. And a lot, some of those courses have some nice similarities to Liberty national. He also finished fifth at shadow Creek for what it's worth. So I will be right there one more time on Taylor Gooch.

Yeah, and I don't mind that. I have him as a top 40 play here at plus 200. I mean, I'm not as big a fan as Taylor Gooch as the industry seems to be in fairness, but I do agree with you that this might be a good setup for him. And I do agree with the sentiment that he's more talented than what he's been showing lately. I mean, although some of these finishes have been pretty solid over the last few months, but I agree that there's upside with Taylor Gooch. I just question how much upside there is.

Yeah, you're probably right. I think like 240 to one's a fat number, but he's not going to win this golf tournament. I think it's, you know, the draft Kings side of it and the top 40 side of it for me, I'll give you a quick recap Sia of where I think I'm going at this moment. I have a Rory at 26 to one. I'm in on that. I have Justin Thomas at 27 to one.

I am deciding between DJ and Brooks for that final spot still. And I think you may have talked to me closer on to Brooks. So I've seen kind of a 24 out there. I'm good. I still have to think about it a little bit more, but I think you've kind of talked to me more so onto Brooks and that's it for me. Like I said, I have two tiny wagers on Keegan at one 40 and Carlos Ortiz at 200, but I'm pretty heavy on,

on those kind of three guys below 30 to one, which isn't something I rarely ever do, but I do think that this tournament calls for it. And I probably should mention my top 40 plays because that's the only thing I went at anyway, but Bradley Ortiz, Gooch and Vegas would be the guys for me.

Yeah, I like that. I think that that looks like a good card to me. And honestly, you've convinced me on a couple of these guys because I think Oh, and Sanjay Sanjay top 40 as well. I think Sanjay Keegan and Vegas were guys that probably weren't going to make my card, but I think they deserve to be in there.

I love it, man. All right. Well, see ya. I think we covered anything. This was fun as always. Before we get out of here, man, please tell everyone where they can find you this week. You guys just finished recording First Cut, right? Absolutely. So yeah, you can find me on

on the CBS sports first cut show. So the first cut on both we're on IG and, and Twitter, just like everybody else. You can find me at wind daily sports. Of course I do our PGA show Tuesday nights. I do that with Joel Shrek, but also Spencer has been joining us a lot along with Nick Brett wish they kind of rotate in and out. I think Spencer, he was with us last week. He'll be with us tomorrow night as well. That's an elite squad.

you've got, thank you for saying that. I can't, I can't say enough about Spencer who just seems to follow me everywhere. I go like, I joined golf WRX and suddenly Spencer's at golf WRX. Like you'd say, I, I very much, it's an elite squad you got over there. So I can't speak highly enough about you guys. Well, Spencer clearly knows how to follow the town. So, but, but,

The point is he actually had some amazing calls last week. I think he was on Kevin Na, he was on Adam Scott, he was on Justin Rose. He was on a lot of these guys that like a lot of people just kind of overlooked. So he's going to join us tomorrow. We do that at 8:30 Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday nights. But also, you know,

I'm going to be doing some football stuff. So I'm doing a CBS, the CBS fantasy football today family, which I'm sure everybody knows. Anybody who does anything fantasy football related would know them. I'm doing their new DFS show with Mike McClure and Frank Stample. We're releasing our third episode tomorrow. You can find it on Apple podcasts, Spotify, their YouTube channel. So that's going to be really fun. We're going to do two shows a week throughout the NFL season. We've already gotten started. So I'll be doing some football stuff too, which I'm really happy about.

That's awesome, man. I'm actually super excited to check out your football stuff just because I'm really... As we were talking about off air, content-wise, I am just going all in on golf, but I'm obsessed with the NFL just as a fan, and I'm obsessed with fantasy football. I'm in a couple leagues with guys that are really smart guys, and we've been in them together for a really long time. I

I'm really excited to check those out. And obviously your golf content is top-notch as well. See you, Najat. Everybody see it. Thank you so much one more time for joining me. And I am sure that we will be doing this again very shortly. Sounds good. Thanks for having me, Andy.

That's it for the show, guys. Thanks to Sia one more time for joining me. And look out on Twitter this week because, as I mentioned at the top of my Sunday podcast, my big announcement is that I'm joining the Rotoballer Radio Network and changing the name of this podcast to something that, frankly, makes a lot more sense, the Inside Golf Podcast with Andy Wack.

Nothing changes whatsoever in terms of my content. I still own all of my content and am in full charge of what I want to talk about. They just pay me and I do some ad reads for them, but I'm still going to do the same shows on Sundays and Tuesdays. It's still the same podcast feed. It's still the same Twitter account. So you don't have to resubscribe to anything or follow a new Twitter account. And I'm super excited for what's to come. So

I want to thank everyone in advance one more time, and I will be back next Sunday, breaking down the BMW. Catch you next time.

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