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Okay, I'm recording this late actually on Saturday evening so I can play golf tomorrow morning. I'm in Aspen right now for my mom's birthday. So shout out mom. Happy birthday. And let me tell you, Aspen is fucking sweet. I like this place a lot.
There's like a cowboy hat thing going on with all the girls here. It's pretty great. You don't even know you're a fan of that until you see it. Just trust me on that one. The golf's great too. The ball travels in the air so far. It's just like a great vibe here. So big fan of Aspen. But anyway, a couple quick Wyndham thoughts before we get into the Northern Trust.
If you listened to this podcast last week, if you listened to my podcast with Rick, if you read my Roto baller preview or my golf WRX preview, you are aware that I was gushing over Russell Henley on every platform that I had available. Turns out everyone else was a huge fan of Russell Henley, which they should have been. I think he made a ton of sense. He jumped off the page to me when I did all of my research on,
I am still incredibly squeamish that he gets the job done tomorrow, but it's just hard to close out leads. But we got a chance, which is all you can ask for. And I will be pumped for this entire community if he can get it done tomorrow. What's so funny is that
by Wednesday afternoon, after I do all this research and I do all this content and I'm just tapped out before I have to start researching the next tournament, I was convinced that Henley was not going to play well because I just looked at it and I
It can't be that easy, right? I mean, I thought he was going to be popular, but people coming out of the woodworks left and right with this guy. And I'm trying to not get so psyched out when people agree with me. It's happened to me a couple of times recently where my research leads me to a player. I plant my flag on Sunday morning. And then when he turns out to be a popular guy, I get super squeamish. I almost talked myself out of speed at the British. Yeah.
I think there was a Johnny Vegas week too, where I just was all over him and he became really popular and ended up finishing second. So my point is, you know, without rights, you're just trying to get in the mix. And, you know, if it makes sense, it makes sense. And for better or worse, I never deviate or can be talked out of the players that I want to play.
But I also talk golf with a lot of smart people. And if they are on the same page, guess what? That's not always a bad thing. So hopefully Russ can get it done for all of us. But even if he doesn't, I am shaping up to have another really solid week in the top 40 market. What's so funny is that if you had asked me on Wednesday night, who are the two players that you are most confident in? I would have said Zach Johnson and Taylor Gooch.
And both of those guys missed the cut. But all the guys that I was a little more squeamish about, like Mark Hubbard and Brendan Todd and Chris Kirk and even Mr. Kevin Strillman, they all look like they're going to come through, which kind of just shows the
find a tight pool. For me, it's like 12 guys that I really, really like and manage your exposure. I wouldn't suggest going all in on like two guys or on the contrary, something I talked about with Rob on his podcast, just playing everyone either. Um,
but I always tend to put myself in a position where they're like nine to 12 guys that I feel really good about some more than others. And even if the guys that I feel the best about, I swing and miss on doesn't kill me. Although yes, Gooch and Johnson did prevent me from any big wins on draft Kings, but that happens and no one cares how your guys do anyway. So let's move on to the Northern trust. Actually,
Before we get to the Northern Trust, let's talk about this at the top. Big announcement regarding the future of this podcast. I am joining the Roto Baller Radio Network, which is literally going to change nothing. I still own all of my content. I get to talk about whatever I want. If I want to do 45 minutes on Xander with Nagels, I'm still going to do it for better or worse, right? Yeah.
But all it means is that I will do some ad reads for them and they pay me. But the schedule will be completely the same. I'll do this podcast every Sunday, podcast with a guest every Tuesday. So nothing changes at all in that right. However, I am changing the name of this podcast. So I started a website about 10 months ago called pickthepup.com.
And my initial conception for the website is that it would be centered around betting, NFL, NBA, and golf. And if you go to that website, you can see that I did a ton of NFL and NBA writing in the beginning. Now, with that being said, when I decided to start doing more content in podcast form instead of written form,
It was like right after the Super Bowl ended. So I was just like, perfect. I'm just going to go all in on golf right now. I'm going to make my podcast the Pick the Pup Golf Show. And then when football starts, I'll add the Pick the Pup Football Show. By the way, for those who have asked the name Pick the Pup, the conception, like I said, was a betting website. So PickthePup.
pick the underdog, pick the pup. That's kind of where it came from, but that doesn't really make any sense in the golf context. You don't really like use the term underdog the way you do in football. And I reached this point where the
The golf stuff really took off for me. And this summer I kept saying, okay, I'm going to take a week or two off from golf and dive headfirst into football. And I just never had the time. I put so much detail into my golf content and there would have been no way for me to devote that level of attention to football and have my football content be
up to snuff and as in depth as my golf content. And that's what I would want. I would want my football content to be right there with my golf content. I want, I would want the standards to be really high. And I just knew that I wouldn't be able to get there, uh, with football. I
I fucking love the NFL. I am still going to write some stuff about it for Roto baller. I'm going to tweet about it. I will tweet my picks every week. I will keep tracking my picks. I've been really successful betting wise in the NFL in the past, but in terms of like my career, uh, in terms of content, uh,
After talking to a lot of people in the industry that I really look up to, I'm taking the Rick Gaiman route and just going all in on golf. Golf is my passion. I have known since I was 10 years old that my entire career would be in the golf industry, whether that was on the PGA teaching side or on the media side. And
I just feel like I have a pretty good understanding of the game just based on the fact that I've been around the game and playing and competing since I was a kid. And I feel like I have the ability to put out pretty in-depth content around golf. Whereas when I'm watching a football game, sure, I know football well, but I've never played a meaningful down of football in my life. I can't look at the footwork of an offensive lineman and have like a take about it.
Um, and with how detailed I go into the golf stuff, I would just, I would never be able to get there with football. So anyway, very long winded way of saying that I'm all in on golf, pick the pot, make zero sense as a golf podcast. And so I'm changing the name to the inside golf podcast with Andy lack under the rotoballer radio network.
New logo that I'm going to announce next week. The pick the pup Twitter account is just going to turn into the inside golf account and I'll be promoted by Roto baller. So follow Roto baller and Roto baller PGA if you aren't already, but it is the same podcast feed. So if you're subscribed, the name's just going to change. So if you're subscribed to the pick the pup golf show, which if you're not, please do that. Nothing changes. You don't have to subscribe to a new feed.
The only thing that is going to change whatsoever is the name and the logo, which I will tweet out next week. And for the BMW, that will be the first official week where it will be the Inside Golf podcast. I would love the support if when you see that tweet next week, you could retweet it. And I may even do a giveaway to commemorate the change. But
I really, in advance, just appreciate the continued support of this podcast. It's not easy to rebrand, but long-term, I just think this makes so much more sense. Pick the Pup Golf Show makes no sense, especially if I'm just doing golf going forward. So I wanted to make the change while I'm still kind of in the growth stage of
If that makes sense. I hope that all makes sense. It makes sense to me. But if people are like, what is going on? Why did you change the name? What happened? I hope I explained it the best way that I could. And I hope you continue to listen and support this podcast because I'm really excited for where it's going to go. I keep feeling like I'm getting a little bit better at this with more time and more reps under my belt. And I'm incredibly grateful to Roto Baller
and incredibly grateful to all you guys who listen every week. Many of you who've been listening since the very, very beginning. And that is the reason why I'm able to make a career out of this.
All right, cool. Let's get to the Northern Trust. This is the first leg of the FedExCup playoffs. 125 players are in the field. I'm recording this, like I mentioned, before the completion of the Wyndham. So I don't actually exactly know who those 125 players will be. And because of that, I can't run an exact model with all the players in the field. So I just...
I had to run a model with all tour players and then kind of manually figure out who's playing. And so far, fantasy national did upload the field on Saturday, but obviously it's not the exact field because movement can still happen over the weekend and
at the Wyndham. But this really only matters, in my opinion, when assessing the bottom of the board. And I'll talk about this a lot more later, like Monday and Tuesday, once the field is finalized, I will be diving deep into the bottom of the board and for DFS purposes and maybe a couple of top 40s. But I feel pretty confident
that one of the big guys is going to take it home this week. I was looking at who has won this tournament in the past, and I know it's been at different courses, but this is a big event. It's in the Northeast always, first leg of the playoffs. So here are the former winners.
2020 last year, Dustin Johnson, 2019 Patrick Reed at Liberty national, 2018 Bryson DeChambeau, 2017 Dustin Johnson, 2016 Patrick Reed, 2015 Jason day when he was good, 2014 Hunter Mahan, when he was good as well. 2013 Adam Scott at Liberty national, 2012 Nick Watney. He was good at that time as well. I promise you. And 2011 Dustin Johnson. So DJ has won this tournament three times now.
And I like him a lot this week to make it a fourth. But all of those guys were –
premier top end guys in good form. Um, here's a stat from my good buddy, Mark. You can all give him a follow at golf. That's one on one on Twitter, but eight of the last 10 Northern trust winners have had multiple top fifteens in their last five starts. And five of the last six had at least three top 20 finishes in their last five starts. Six,
Six of the last 10 winners were top 15 in the official world golf rankings. Eight of the last 10 winners were in the top 25. No one was worse than 42nd in the world over the last 10 years to win this tournament. No one was worse than 42nd.
And I don't really expect that to change this week. I think this tournament will be won by one of the best players in the world in good form. And I will elaborate on that theory when I talk about the course. So let's dive in.
Liberty national golf club. It is a par 71 measuring 7,353 yards, fast bank grass greens measuring just 4,653 square feet on average bank grass fairways measuring 37 yard wide. So pretty open off the tee and Kentucky bluegrass rough 13 water hazards come into play here. It was designed by Tom kite and Robert cup. It is a very, uh,
open and exposed course. So wind will certainly come into play here, but it's not a links course at all. In my opinion, it's right on the New Jersey side of the Hudson river. It's a, it's a private club. A lot of money was put into this club. It only, it almost reminds me of like an East coast shadow Creek where, uh,
A couple billionaires were just like, let's move a ton of dirt and throw a ton of money at making the most well-manicured course ever. In research, I watched some of the 2017 President's Cup highlights and the 2019 Northern Trust highlights. This course is beautiful. Not a blade of grass is out of order. It has this really weird...
modern clubhouse, kind of like the bridge. I'm excited for this tournament. It should be really fun to watch. So Liberty National, it hosted this tournament in 2009, won by Heath Slocum. It hosted it again in 2013, won by Adam Scott, and it hosted it again in 2019, won by Patrick Reed. This course got a lot of negative feedback in 2009, and they made a bunch of changes.
So I personally would not put any stock into anything that happened in 2009 because the course got a total facelift. So just be wary of that. As I mentioned, it was the host, also the host of the 2017 President's Cup, which was dominated by the United States. Just a couple of quick notes on the President's Cup.
Dustin Johnson was unbelievable. He was four and oh, uh, Ricky Fowler was also really good. He was three own one, but he's not playing this week. Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth were all really good to all of them earned 3.5 points for their team.
Kevin Kisner was also on that team, and he was very good. He was 2-0-2. Daniel Berger was also on the team. He was fine. Kuchar was fine. Brooks was actually a little underwhelming, and Kevin Chappell was bad, and Charlie Hoffman was bad. On the international side, they just got wiped.
the only player that was respectable. Louie was okay here. He beat Patrick Reed in singles, but Jason Day was bad. Emiliano Grillo was terrible. Adam Hadwin was terrible. Siwoo Kim was bad. Anirban Lahiri, Mark Leishman, both were bad. Hideki was okay. He beat Justin Thomas in singles. Carl Schwartzel was bad. Adam Scott was bad. Johnny Vegas was bad. All it is, in my opinion, it
It's just more reps on this course. The international guys, I'm not going to put too much stock into the fact that they got killed because the U.S. just had a much better team.
Okay, before we get into the stats, just a quick public service announcement. There's two Fantasy National pages on Liberty National. I haven't reached out to my buddy Moose to let him know that. One of the Liberty National pages has all the stats from 2009 and 2013. The other one just has the stats from 2019.
I'm going to be looking at the 2019 one. I'll reference the other one, but the other one is basically just an average of what happened in 2009 and what happened in 2013. And like I said, I think you can throw 2009 out the window. It was a wonky course. Heath Slocum won. All the players hated it. The cut was like plus six and the winning score was minus nine. 2013 and 2019, the cut was awful.
plus one and minus one. So I cross-referenced some things from 2013, but I'm correlating most of my stats around what happened in 2019. So let's dig into it. In 2019, top 10 finishers gained an average of over four strokes on approach. That is double what they gained off the tee, over three times what they gained around the greens and about 35% more than what they've gained putting.
That is not abnormal by any means. If anything, what stood out to me is that this, contrary to what we saw last week or, you know, at a place like Detroit Golf Club, you definitely can compete at this tournament with incredible ball striking and decent putting. Abe Anser actually finished second here, losing strokes, putting three guys in the top 10 actually lost strokes, putting as well. And.
And oddly enough, if you look at, I'm just talking about 2019 right now, but if you look at how Reed and answer who finished first and second here last year, got it done. They were actually awesome off the tee and way better off the tee than on approach. I mean, Reed, it was an incredibly balanced attack for him where he gained, um, over two strokes in every category. And that's,
That was kind of the takeaway when I was looking at the leaderboard. It's just a good golf course where it's going to showcase the best players. I don't think that you can fake your way around this place. Really. 2013 was kind of the same story. Just a lot of good players that all found themselves towards the top of the leaderboard. Adam Scott won that week, gaining only 0.9 strokes, putting and Justin Rose finished second, losing 1.2 strokes, putting. So,
my biggest takeaway I think is from looking at these leaderboards and how guys have had success here, uh,
I'm probably going to focus on a smaller card where I do look a lot at some of the favorites and I'm going to look for players that are just really well-rounded and tend to gain strokes in all four major categories, like a Xander, like a John Rom, where there just aren't a lot of glaring weaknesses in your game. Spieth is one of those guys who just...
kind of eliminated off the tee as a weakness. And now he just consistently gains off the tee. So he has a really well-rounded game as well, where he gains in all four categories pretty routinely at this point. I digress. I'll talk about some of the guys I like a little bit later, but one thing to keep in mind here, it's a par 71 with three par fives and four par threes. Two of the par fives are reachable. The other one is pretty long, uh, with, uh,
par threes two of them actually are really short and the other two are pretty long and there was a very strange not strange but interesting approach shot distribution where 31% of approach shots came from 200 yards plus which
does make some sense given that three par fives are reachable five par fours over 450 yards and another par three that's 220 yards that's nine holes where your approach shot could come from 200 yards plus so i'm definitely going to be look looking at that 200 yard plus range and a little bit of 175 to 200 as well 20 percent of approach shots come from there so that's
That's well above tour average. So about 52% of approach shots come from over 175 yards here. So I definitely think you want to be looking at long iron players this week.
Pretty much no approach shots come from that 150 to 175 yard range. So kind of totally the polar opposite of Sedgefield and kind of right around tour average for 125 to 150, which again, I think makes some sense because there are some pretty short par fours as well, two short par three. So this week it's a little different than Sedgefield average.
Setshield, like I said, let's focus on wedge players and short iron players. This week, I think the focus should be on long iron players and a little bit of wedge play. But the proximity distances I think that you should look at big time would be 200 yards plus and definitely some 175 to 200 and maybe just a little 125 to 150. I couldn't find a giant correlation between fairways gained or
anything like that driving accuracy here is 67 compared to the tour average of 62
Although I am going to be looking at off the tee, as I mentioned, Reed was awesome off the tee. And there are a lot of bigger golf holes here where I understand that the fairways are pretty wide, but I still think that there's a huge advantage as we've seen by these leaderboards. If you can drive the ball, well, driving distance here is above tour average. So you can definitely hit some drivers here.
The greens, as I mentioned, are pretty small. So I will definitely be looking at greens and regulation gain. Greens and regulation percentage is only 61% here compared to the tour average of 65%. I found a pretty big correlation there. And I just think, uh,
It pays to hit greens here. Anytime you get to a little bit of a harder course, that tends to accentuate more of an elite tee to green skill set. So obviously approach stats are always going to be your friend. Nothing really popped out to me in terms of three putt avoidance. Although these greens are definitely contoured. Webb Simpson did say that these greens reminded him of Donald Ross greens or
you know, San safe percentage either. But I do think that anytime you get to a little bit of a harder course where it's a little bit harder to hit the greens short game is definitely gum going to come into play a little bit. And again, although there wasn't a huge correlation there, um,
I did want to look at around the green and scrambling here because read and answer, they were both really good around the green as well in 2019. And a lot of those guys on the leaderboard, really good short games. And like I said, I just think you need kind of a balanced attack here. So although I don't think short game is massive here, I think that you should still kind of throw it in there because I just think this is a course where if you have...
any one glaring weakness, it's going to get exposed. So like I know that scrambling percentage is right around tour average, but I think bogey avoidance might be a nice way to find players that are able to grind out parts when they need to looking at the scoring distribution, um,
There are a few holes, you know, the par fives and a drivable par four and two shorter par threes where you kind of have to make birdie. But a lot of holes where pars there are a lot of holes where pars a pretty good score. And I think you kind of have to pick your spots here and mitigate disaster.
I definitely do think wind is going to be a factor just from all of the highlights that I've watched. Now, I think looking at strokes gained in windy conditions is imperfect. There are just a lot of variables and it's really hard to statistically quantify wind play.
it's just nature and it changes a lot and there's no real consistency to it. But I think you'll maybe, uh, try, want to try and pinpoint some guys who have performed well in windy conditions. I guess you could, I guess you could call this a coastal course if you want to look at that stuff. But yes, wind will definitely be important. Uh, but if I hear that this is a links course, uh,
I'll lose my mind because this is not a Lynx course. This is like an exposed shadow Creek. It is incredibly well manicured and modern with perfect bent grass greens. And there's forced carries and a lot of manmade water hazards. And it doesn't favor the ground game at all. Like a Lynx course. It's a modern course in impeccable condition with fast bent grass greens that happens to be close to a body of water.
But I digress. Bankrupt putting, as I mentioned, definitely worth looking at too. So just to recap of what I'm looking at overall, like I said, I want...
kind of a well-rounded player who tends to gain strokes in all four categories. I don't think this is a course where you want to be looking at too many specialists, but if there is one specialty skill set that I think is most important, I would definitely say long iron play. And if they're good on bank grass and maybe have some nice experience playing in the Northeast, like a DJ or Patrick Reed or,
Bryson all come to mind and have some nice results in the wind. I think that's all definitely a nice bonus, but I think you want to lean towards pedigree guys here for the most part. Okay. Early leans.
Actually, quickly, I'll run through the top 10 of my model. Jon Rahm rated out as the number one golfer for me by a pretty wide margin. Paul Casey was number two. Charlie Hoffman was number three. Victor Hovland was number four. Colin Morikawa was number five. Brooks Koepka was number six. Daniel Berger was seven. Patrick Cantlay was eight. Jordan Spieth was nine. And number 10 was Bryson DeChambeau.
As I mentioned, outside of Charlie Hoffman there, it's a lot of just the best players in the world, which kind of doesn't surprise me for the way I kind of think this course is going to shape out. But I was really surprised at how many really just strong cases I was able to make this week for the top-end guys. Usually, I kind of...
Sometimes I forego that range and maybe there's one or two guys that I feel really, really solid about. But this week, like I think you could make a really compelling case for a lot of these top end guys. And, you know, I usually bet six outrights. Usually like one of them is above 100 to one and another one and only one of them is like below 30 to one. Last week, I didn't even have anyone below 30 to one.
This may be a week where I choose three guys under 25-1 and just place heavy wagers on them. Just because I think that there are a lot of compelling options in this top range, so I'll talk about some of them. I think Dustin Johnson...
I think he's rounding into form and he has had such an incredible history on this course at the president's cup. Um, he was so dominant and while nothing statistically kind of jumps out to me about Dustin Johnson, other than he is an incredible long iron player, DJ is top 10 on the PGA tour in proximity from 200 yards plus, um,
I just look at what he's done recently, and I do really feel like he is starting to round into form. The 10th at the WGC St. Jude might seem a little disappointing, but it was only the second time that DJ has gained strokes in all four major categories all season long.
Off the tee got a little bit better. The irons continue to get better. His 3.2 strokes on approach is his best iron week since February, and he gained marginally with the short game and putter as well. He's won plenty on bank grass. He's solid in the wind. I think this is a really good spot for him. So I like Dustin Johnson a lot. At whatever odds, he's on my short list. The other guy that is probably right up there with DJ for me, if not even more, but I'm
I was not prepared to bet Rory McIlroy at all this week. And then I looked at his ball striking numbers from the Memphis event last week. So Rory gained 12.4 strokes ball striking in that WGC event last week. He finished 12th because he lost 6.2 strokes putting in short game.
I cannot tell you how good that is to gain 12.4 strokes ball striking. It really does not happen that often for context. Like Rory is over a large sample size is one of the best ball strikers in the history of golf. And he hasn't had a performance like this in over two years.
Uh, the last time he did this was at the 2019 Wells Fargo. It's just really, really hard to gain over 12 strokes ball striking. Um, it just doesn't happen very often. And, uh,
I feel like you kind of have to ride it coming off that performance. If you kind of look back a little bit further, he's kind of been trending this way for a while now. He was really good at the Olympics. He's been unbelievable with his irons basically since the Wells Fargo, which is where he kind of really flipped a switch. And I just think when somebody is hitting the ball that well, wins come very soon.
And Rory is hitting the ball as good as he has hit it in his career. Numbers wise, I don't know if he's like as confident as he's ever been in his career or as fearless as he's ever been in his career. But just from a pure ball striking perspective, Rory is like right there with peak Rory, just numbers wise. And I think you...
I think you kind of have to ride it. I think there is some, this is an unquantifiable thing, but I really think that,
You know, there was a lot of speculation and talk surrounding Rory. The no weighing up guys talk about it a lot, but that, you know, that Rory may have lost a little bit of his fire, a little bit of his passion. He's given some quotes about how he's very content with all of the majors that he's already won and he has a new baby and all
all the stuff with Rory, just based on kind of the way he talks to the media is one of the most transparent guys you're going to find out there. And I think something might've flipped for him a little bit at the Olympics where the guy is not about it at all. And he just catches the fever and does a total one 80 and all of his quotes start sounding a little bit different. And I don't know, maybe that was, uh,
Kind of the kick in the ass that he needed or kind of the spark plug that he needed to kind of fall in love with golf again, because he came to Memphis the next week and just striped it better than he has since basically like 2017. So yeah,
Maybe there's something to that or not, but just from the numbers, I'm probably going to bet Rory because it's really hard to hit the ball that well. And like I said, wins tend to come right around the corner when somebody is hitting the ball that well. So I really like Rory this week. I really do. And he's finished six at Liberty national in 2019. This is like a perfect course for him. I think this is a great fit for him. So I think Rory's a, I think he's a really strong option at the top.
Now, the thing that's difficult for me is that like, I think you can make a great case for Brooks here. Um, I think you can make a great case for Justin Thomas here. Uh, Justin Thomas is irons are back. This is a good course for Justin Thomas. He's played really well here. Um,
he make it's, I was feeling very squeamish about JT kind of over the past couple of weeks. And, you know, while the results haven't come back yet, he's hitting the ball so much better than he was just a few weeks ago. And that's, that's kind of how his game is rounding into form. So I think you can make a great case for JT. I think you can make a great case for Brooks. Like I said, like he was really bad at, uh,
Memphis, which is definitely surprising given the fact that many people, including myself, thought he was going to contend or at least compete there. He did lose 7.2 strokes short game in putting, but at the same time,
It was his worst approach week in three months as well, which would be the concern. Now, the reason I'm not concerned about Brooks is I just don't think that you can put a ton of stock into bad Brooks approach weeks. The last time that Brooks lost strokes on approach, he came back and gained 7.8 strokes the next week. The time before that, he lost strokes on approach. He gained 6.4 the next week. So I think Brooks sometimes maybe when he's out of a tournament, he takes his foot off
foot off the gas a little bit and that will sometimes juke his stats but I think he still deserves a look regardless of form the upside is just so high with him he's still finished in the top six of six of his 13 starts this season and
Um, and then as I mentioned with, I'll just run through these guys really quickly, but this is the perfect John Rom course ever. Uh, and he was number one in my model and he finished third at Liberty national in 2019. I would expect him to destroy this course. Um, I, he's going to be at an unbettable number, probably maybe there's a little bit of a break, but he hasn't played since the British open. That was a month ago. So maybe that helps his number a little bit. Um,
I don't think Rom has lost anything, though, just because he hasn't played in a couple of weeks. His last five starts, eighth at the PGA, was steamrolling the field through three rounds at the Memorial, wins the U.S. Open, ninth at the Scottish Open, only because he couldn't putt, and third at the British Open. So...
He's really right there with Morikawa as the best player in the world right now. It's just tough because my question is how much... Rahm is going to have the worst odds of these guys. And how much more do I like Rahm over someone like...
DJ or Rory or Brooks, because I really want to play DJ and Rory. And I would like to play Justin Thomas too, but I don't know if I could fit him in. And I really, I think Bryson makes sense too. I think you can make a good case for Bryson. He finished 24th at Liberty national in 2019. I wouldn't call Liberty just a course where you can absolutely bomb away with no repercussions, but
I do think you can hit a lot of driver on this course. The fairways are pretty wide and he's number two in proximity from 200 yards plus. He continues to dominate off the tee. He's coming off a really nice approach week and a really nice putting week at the St. Jude's. His short game's been terrible, which I do think matters, but I don't think that's a deal breaker either. So I think
I think he's in play as well. And then, you know, guys like Bert, like burgers coming off a week where he gained 10 strokes on approach at, in Memphis and Hovland's ball striking has remained great. And I don't think obviously Scotty Scheffler is in this class, but I,
I'm probably going to need to find a way to continue to ride Scotty Scheffler. I think this course sets up incredibly well for him. He's above average in all of the proximity distances I'm looking at. He's excellent on par fives, and he's really just trending in the right direction. I bet him at the St. Jude's he gained two strokes off the tee and 2.9 strokes on approach, lost 0.8 strokes putting, and finished 14th.
The ball striking is there. The short game is reliable and he's definitely capable of catching fire with his putter. He gained 8.7 strokes a couple of weeks ago at the U S open. Um, okay. I'm bad and really good at the wind. Uh,
um, finished third at the Northern trust last year. So at least he's played well in the Northeast before. And I just think that he's a total big game hunter. I tweeted this out, but there's been 12 FedEx cup playoff events, uh, majors and WGCs in the last calendar year. Scotty Scheffler is the only player in the entire world to finish top 20 in all of them. And Scotty
I don't see any reason to stop backing Scottie Scheffler in these stronger field events. The ball striking is awesome. It's a good course for him. So I think I'm probably going to go right back to Scottie Scheffler. But I say all of that to kind of illustrate the point that I think that this is, for me at least in my opinion, I think I'm going to pick
like two guys at the very top that I really like at this moment, I'm leading Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy, but I think JT and Rom and Bryson are all also compelling options. And, um,
Scotty Scheffler and just place heavy bets on them. I don't think that there are a lot of guys at the closer to the bottom of the board that I really see winning this thing. I dug into, I like Keegan a lot.
I dug into Keegan and I like Keegan. I like Carlos Ortiz a lot when I dug into Carlos Ortiz, but for the most part, I just found such a huge discrepancy between how I think this course is going to play, how this tournament has played out in the past and what the elite players are doing right now. It just feels like a lot of the elite guys, like a Justin Thomas, like a Rory McIlroy, like a Dustin Johnson, like a Bryson, even they're kind of
all at the same time starting to round into form, which doesn't always happen all the time like that. So I just think that at the end of the day, that's probably how I'm going to do it. But, you know,
You're welcome to do it however you want. So that will do it for me. I, I should have said this at the top too, but I am going to this tournament on Thursday and Saturday. I will be there, uh, with other golf Twitter guys. If you are a listener and you're going, let me know, come say hi. If you can't find me, just look for Stefan Shoffley. The, uh, he's the 250%
pound dude dressed in all linen with a fedora. He will be dressed like a drug lord. You won't miss him. And I will most likely be following his lead. I'm pumped to get the team back together. I kind of miss the squad. Maya and Nico and Ross and Derek. I miss those guys. So yeah, I'll be following Xander most likely with my buddy Nagels, but I'll be all over the place. So come say hi. The funny thing is,
I don't really like Xander at all this week from a betting or DFS perspective. I mean, I shouldn't say that I don't like him at all, but there is just no avenue for me to find a way to play him with how much I really like some of the other top guys, as I mentioned. And I kind of like that vibe going into the week was Xander. Um, I had $0 on him at Torrey Pines. Um,
I didn't love his chances at Torrey Pines and I had an absolute blast following him for two days. I personally, I,
feel so much more pressure when I do think Xander is going to win. And I spend all this time talking about how he's going to win. I have no expectations for him this week. We're still riding a gold fucking metal baby. Um, would it shock me if he won? Absolutely not. He's one of the best players in the world, but my research just led me to other guys this week that I feel like I have to play based on my understanding of the course and what I think is going to happen. But, um,
Anyway, incredibly excited for this tournament. My picks podcast will drop Tuesday morning with my buddy friend of the show, Sia Najad. And then I'll be on Brian Kirshner's podcast, Tappan Birdie on Tuesday. That could go off the rails pretty quickly. Okay. All right. That'll do it. One last time.
Please look out for the tweet this week about the name change. That will happen after I handle all my stuff and get out all my content this week, probably like on Friday or something like that. And then starting next week.
Inside Golf Podcast with Andy Wack, part of the Rotoball Radio Network. Makes so much more sense. So much cleaner and a relevant name to what I talk about. And in advance, I really appreciate all of the support because I'm only able to do this and continue to do this because how many people have started listening and left ratings and reviews?
But that's enough for me. Thanks for listening and I'll catch you next time. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI. Because legal fees and time in court are just the beginning. Getting into a crash is another way that your world can be turned upside down. Your vehicle may not be the only thing that gets damaged in that crash. You can face a life altering injury or
or even death. But you're not the only one that can face those consequences. Your decision to drink and drive can permanently impact not just your world, but someone else's world as well. Whether you injure them or leave their loved ones grieving. The next time you're out drinking, call a ride share, a taxi, a sober friend,
or a designated sober driver. The only decision that will change your world for the better is the decision to call for a sober ride. Drive sober or get pulled over. Paid for by NHTSA.
