Memorial Picks, U.S. Open Qualifying Subplots & Pinehurst with Ryan Baroff

2024/6/4

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Andy and Ryan discuss the unique challenges of Muirfield Village and Pinehurst, focusing on the players who should succeed at both tracks.

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15% off, try it for a week or try it for a month because we got three major weeks coming up. We're going to do some us open giveaways, uh,

Just a signature event, a major, and then another signature event. So this is a great opportunity to get in for a month and promise you will get your money's worth with the stretch of golf that we have coming up. So runpearsports.com, promo code Andy to get you that 15% off discount. All right, coming up on this podcast, bringing on my guy, Ryan Baroff. We got a lot to talk about today. This was a good little golf chat. We talk...

U.S. Open qualifying. We talk a little Pinehurst. I cannot believe the U.S. Open is 10 days away. So we do a little preliminary Pinehurst talk as I like to do the week before a major. There's a lot to talk about with Memorial. I think it's an awesome, fun betting board to talk through.

Again, talked a little bit about some of the U.S. Open qualifying subplots from today and just a really good golf chat. I actually think it's one of the better pods I've done just in terms of the way it flowed. And Ryan was awesome. So I hope you enjoy it as much as we did. There's some there's some good stuff in there, some good memorial stuff in there, some good early stuff.

Pinehurst talking there. And like I said, really fun golf chat. So without further ado, let's bring on Ryan.

All right. Ryan Baroff is here. We finally hit record. We've been talking for about 15 minutes prior to this, but we just got to the, we just got to the U S open qualifying section of our chat. I got to say, I've really enjoyed tracking this throughout the day. What have, what have been some of your highlights from, from the longest day in golf before we, before we get into some Memorial and Piners talk? Yeah.

Yeah, it's been cool. Always a fun one to watch. You know, it's just such a nice mix of the obvious, like the touring pros playing in Canada. And there are a few other ones. You get the you get the live storylines. You have Korn Ferry storylines. You have the college kids storylines and then you have random amateurs as well. So, yeah, there's a couple left. Adam Scott and Cam Davis appear destined for college.

an Aussie two for one playoff in Ohio. So that'll be a fun one to watch. Yeah. There's kind of an interesting subplot there because I think Pinehurst is a really good golf course for our Australians. Like when I, when I broke down the golf course in December, I haven't dove deep yet into Pinehurst the week of I, I plan on, um,

doing that over the next two days. But the long shots that I gave out were like Cameron Davis and Adam Scott. So I'm pretty much eagerly anticipating what happens between those two players, because I think firm, fast, like the turf at Pinehurst is very similar to a lot of the turf out in Australia. I think one of the ethoses of Australian golf, the reason why

architecture geeks like me love australian golf so much is because they don't really believe in watering their golf courses um those golf courses play really really firm and fast and the bunkers kind of roll into the greens and you have a lot of crowned greenings i think you're going to see a lot of that at pinehurst i'm glad you said that because i i feel like the

Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, people always get these majors wrong. I think the majors are the weeks where we have the biggest sets because I actually think it's like I base I'm so architecture focused and I, I've played Pinehurst a couple of times, went to college down in the area. We'll get to Harold Varner's performance at Duke university golf club. I know that place pretty well. Um, and,

But I think with Pinehurst, I'm really curious to hear what people have to say about the golf course because it is a non-traditional US Open venue. There's not really rough on the golf course. And I think you're barking up the right tree with a player like Cam Smith because I actually –

The golf course is very long. Like Pinehurst is a long golf course, but I don't think that it's going to play super long. Like LACC was a very long golf course, but LACC had really firm fairways and the ball rolled out for miles. I think you're going to see a lot of that at Pinehurst. And I think, again, I'm subject to change this once I really dive into the golf course, but I think the name of the game is going to be like,

controlling iron shots into really firm crowned greens. And when you miss a green, being able to deploy that type of short game creativity to get yourself out of trouble. I agree. And I think just from a very obvious perspective, like you said, they took out the rough and

you know, you can be creative around those greens. Like it's just, it's just not going to play like a typical us open. And I'm definitely curious to see what people do with it. I think one comp, uh, and again, I don't want to get too much in Pinehurst that I think no one's going to talk about because we only saw it once. But if you look at the leaderboard when Colin Morikawa won that, uh,

World Golf Championship concession. He was up there. Hovland was obviously right there. And it was like Scotty Brooks. So there was something about how they set that course up that I think isolated the top players. And I think Cam Smith was 10th. I think Rory was up there. So I would look at that as a guide to how Pinehurst is going to play. Yeah. There's actually two more that I would throw out. First of all,

There is a lot of Augusta in this golf course. I do think as far as US Open venues go, this isn't a ball holla, Oak Hill, winged foot like Torrey Pines, thick, rough, narrow fairways. I do think that this is a course about long iron play and short game skill and lag putting. So I do think that a lot of those –

I think this is one of the better chances. This is not me picking Spieth. I think this is one of the better U.S. Open venues for Spieth. I think this golf course is more similar-

It's more similar to Shinnecock in Chambers Bay than, again, it is to a winged foot. And then remember Congaree, too? Yeah, absolutely. Rory, Kityama. Yeah, exactly. I think there's something a little bit there, too. I'm with you there. I also bet, not Spieth, but Spieth Light.

I bet Sahib at 90. Yes. A future. And then I bashed him all of last week. But if, you know, if there's no rough, you can kind of drive it anywhere. You need to have a really sharp, creative, short game. You have to put well on Bermuda greens.

Sam Burns? Sam Burns? Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I, I, I threw that out on my December preview. Um, I actually think I have some Sam Burns, 75 to one. I have a 75. Exactly. Yeah. Those are the only three that I have. I'll probably add, as you know, one or two more next week, but yeah, Cam Burns to hit. I think that's where I'll be living next week.

Since we're already on pioneers, there was one other question that I wanted to, let's just do the pine hearse thing now. And then there's one other topic I want to hit back on us open qualifying, and then we'll do some Memorial too. Is there a guy this week that you're really watching closely? I guess this could be on the web tour as well, but is there anybody that you have your eye on this week that,

that there's something you want to see or you're watching more closely than others because you think he's going to be a good fit at Pinehurst. Because I have an answer for this.

The very obvious one is Colin Murakawa. And I guess you could put him and Hovland in that same bucket, but I think I still trust that Murakawa has done it for more than one week. Like, obviously, I think we all loved Hovland at Pinehurst back in December. It made a lot of sense, but I would say Murakawa for sure. I would also say Tom Kim. I did bet him this week. Seems to have found something. The ball striking his back.

If he is going to hit fairways on a firm golf course, and you know, I do trust the short game. I think Pinehurst could make a lot of sense for him too. Yeah. As it pertains to both Morikawa and Hovland, two very popular bets this week. Yeah. Listen, I am all in on the Hovland Renaissance. Like I, I stuck with him at the PGA championship. Everything I've heard, I talked to one or two people that's kind of

closer to that Joe Mayo situation. And from everything I've heard, he is like all the way back in the sense that I am really confident that he is going to win a golf tournament very soon and reannounce himself as like a top five guy in the world. My issue with Pinehurst is I

I think just because you gain strokes around the green at a place like Valhalla, I don't know if I'm totally there yet on Hovland.

at a golf course around the green like pioneers, just because so many of his best around the green performances have come out of thick rough. I'm thinking about golf courses like Oak Hill, thinking about golf courses like Memorial. I'm thinking about golf courses like Bay Hill. I'm thinking about golf courses like Olympia Fields, right? Like there's this massive through line between Hovland's best around the green performances coming on courses with that graph. And that's part of the reason I liked him so much at Valhalla too. Yeah.

So I think that would be- So you're saying it's going to give us a chance to fade him next week when he wins Memorial? Well, that's kind of what I was thinking. I was like, okay, in my head as a Hovland fan, I want to see him win the US Open, but I actually think he's way more likely to win the Memorial than

than the U S well, obviously way more likely because you have the live guys in the U S open. But I think the, I think this week is actually a much better, again, not breaking any news here, but because he won it last year, but I think I don't, I guess I should say it this way. I think it's wiser to bet Hovland this week than it is next week. And if you're just in on the Hovland resurface, uh, resurgence golf course agnostic, then I would almost bet them both.

Yeah, and I did bet both Morikawa and Hovland this week. I haven't made a decision on them for next week, but I would lean Morikawa between those two. Well, the other reason why I would lean Morikawa slightly more at Pinehurst than Hovland, and this could change based on what I see this week at Memorial, but have you noticed Morikawa's short game stuff this year? Yeah. Yeah.

He's doing things around the green this year. He's gained almost every event except for API, which is interesting because I think that's a good litmus test with this week. It's going to be very similar in terms of the shots around the green, but he's done something right. That's for sure. The guy that I'm watching closely, and I bet him at Memorial, but he's

After talking to Zalatorce's caddy a little bit and getting to know him, I just think that he is built for these majors. And I remember so specifically watching him in a practice round on Tuesday at Augusta. He was playing with Hovland and Sahith.

And there was one guy in that group that looked like ready to win a major championship that looked completely relaxed, completely, completely prepared. And of course there is the golf course piece in terms of fit was out towards that major championships. Like he is a great long iron player. He's a great total driver of the ball. Like obviously he's going to play well on major championship setups, but I just think that he is, uh,

figured out these weeks, particularly us opens and, and Augusta. I think he's figured out these weeks better than a lot of players. Like, I think that he is just going to be one of those guys that consistently raises his baseline in major championships for the rest of his career. And again, like I think Joel has caddy said the same thing. So I was like, it's like, what do you think about pioneers for a while? And Joel was like, we fricking love that place.

I can see it for sure. And again, I'll always play and back sell Taurus in majors. My only concern is that

While the arm play is still good, he's not driving it well. He's lost distance this year. Lost a lot of distance. And again, he's not putting well. Not that he ever really did, but he kind of had that run in the West Coast swing where he was contending and putting well, and it's gone. So I don't know. Maybe he loves Poland now or something. But if he's not hitting fairways and he's not hitting it long and he's not putting well, I just can't get there yet.

Yeah. I guess my only counterpoint to that would be Zalatoris is like the type of player that will lose strokes, putting for six straight weeks and then lead the masters and putting like he always has that in him regardless of form. Um, what about live? Like, uh,

I don't know. I was pretty, I was pretty heavy on the web guys at, at the PGA. And I want to circle back to Neiman not qualifying for the U S open, because to me, that's the biggest, that's the biggest story of, of qualifying in my opinion is Neiman not getting there, but are you pretty pot committed to cam Smith or are you, do you have some ROM Brooks Bryson interest at Pinehurst too?

If I had to pick one from that group, I would pick wrong. Just again, sort of by the dip. What's going on there though? Because I've had him at the PGA and I've been buying the debt on ROM too. Like I, I was heavy on him at the masters and DFS. I bet him 20 to one at the PGA championship. Yeah.

There's something non-golf related. Totally. He's got either, he just had his third kid or his wife's pregnant with the third kid. Obviously I think the live stuff hasn't panned out the way that he wanted to, both he's not winning and, you know, he became a villain really quickly. And I think, I think that's not who he is at all. He always seemed to want to be the guy and be loved. And yeah, I just don't think he's comfortable in his own skin right now, but yeah,

Look, I'll never say no to Brooks. I don't love that course for Bryson. I do love Cam Smith. Honestly, I mean, Dean Burmester qualified again today.

playing so well. Now you're speaking my language. He might be a top three player right now on that tour. He was great again today. He'll probably contend in Houston. He's somebody who I definitely have a lot of interest in. Yeah. Dean Burmester was like my favorite 7K play at the PGA. I see no reason to... I guess the only reason why...

And this is going to turn into a pro Brooks argument, but ball hall was such turn your brain off driving range golf. Like you listen to some of the players talk about ball holla and it was like a pretty offensive golf course in terms of strategy. Sure. And Pinehurst is pretty antithetical to that. I think that Pinehurst is, uh,

very much a thinking man's golf course. And I think those, and as soon as, I mean, I thought Valhalla was going to be easy. I didn't think it was going to be 21 under easy. As soon as we started getting into a 21 under range, I was like, oh, Brooks is so dead. So, so dead. And I don't know if we should judge the state of Brooks Koepka right now, based on him not being able to get to 21 under at Valhalla. I

I think that there is going to be, I mean, and this is also why Sheffler will probably win by five, but I think that there is going to be a mental edge and a pacing to a golf tournament like Pinehurst that is going to play right into Brooks's hands. I agree. And I think it's, it's,

It's going to have a lot of characteristics of courses down here that he plays a lot. Again, no rough. You look at places like seminal, like a concession. We talked about like, I just think that style like Shinnecock, right. That style of golf. Um, I think he's going to feel very comfortable there. Yeah. The Bryson thing I think is going to be really, really popular. And I don't love it as much as I did at Valhalla. I really love Bryson on thick, rough courses that you can turn your brain off.

I don't necessarily believe in Bryson will be short-circuited at Pinehurst because of uneven lives. I think that's not giving him enough credit as a player. I didn't think he was going to play well at Augusta because of the elevation changes and the single-length irons. I didn't really think he was going to play well at LACC for the same reason. He was good at both. He was. So...

I'm not going to count him out just because I think there's a universe where like right now he is just a top five golfer in the world. So, um,

But I don't like this golf course for him. I don't think he's as an obvious plug and play at Pinehurst the way that he was at Valhalla. I agree. And like with Valhalla, it was so frustrating because I think that mold of Bryson, Hovland, et cetera, was such a plug and play. And I just happened to pick wrong Wyndham Clark and Taylor Pendret who all missed the cut. So like I just right process, wrong results. So.

Okay, so that's good. We got into a little Yusup and I love doing that the week before major. That was another kind of issue that I had with this scheduling was I didn't really process this until this week snuck up on me. But I think Memorial is my favorite non-major of the season. I don't.

I really do feel that way. I really have appreciated, especially with Riviera starting to give way to modern technology a little bit. I really have appreciated Jack's effort to make this stand the test of time and be an elite test of pro golf. Like can't like won this tournament at 19 under in 2019. And Jack was like,

I'm tearing this place up. Like I'm completely changing the way that this golf course plays. And I don't know. I think that this is like one of the best, this event is one of the best things that the PGA tour has in its toolbox. And I really think that this should get like a standalone spot in the middle of July in between the three M and John Deere classic.

Yeah. I mean, if Memorial Day weekend doesn't mean anything anymore. Which it doesn't because it's not the week after. Yeah.

look, the perfect spot for this is probably the traveler spot, right? It's the week after the US Open. It's really tough to go with a signature event, then a major, then another signature event. But yeah, really, really good golf course, really professional golf course, right? It's going to test like the best team players are going to be up there this weekend. There's no doubt about that. It does, you know, I do wish it wasn't the week before a major that that's always just kind of annoying, but I like the Jack Nicklaus

He understands professional golf the way it is now. Yeah, he does. Right. So he's always making changes, adding 20 yards here, adding 40 yards here, adding a bunker here. He grows out the rough, has firm greens, has small greens. Like that's the only way to challenge these guys. Now you need small, firm greens and roughly that's it. That's it. Yeah. Yeah.

Based on, uh, based on the setup that he chooses at Memorial every year, or at least plays a major role in choosing, I bet he was pretty disgusted at, at Pahala, to be honest with you. The other subplot of this, that's interesting to me is, you know,

Back in the day, and when I say back in the day, like as recently as a few years ago, it was pretty 50-50 in terms of great players choosing to play the week before a major versus taking it off. There were a lot of great players that liked to play the week before a major and a lot of great players that chose the opposite.

It's really interesting that they're not giving them a choice anymore on both tours. I don't really, I don't really know what to make of that. And I know that's been a suggested theory about ROM struggle. I don't think we have enough of a sample size yet with ROM to really come to a definitive conclusion, but players have never, like, it seems like players have,

We're trending in a direction where they actually have less control over how they prepare for major championships. Like, Memorial's freaking hard. Yeah. That is a... It's a tough walk. It's got some good elevation changes. Mm-hmm. It's not super close to Pinehurst. Like, you're...

I don't think many players are driving and it's a golf course. It's going to kick your ass. Like guys are going to shoot 76, 77 this week and then roll into probably the hardest golf course that they play all year. Meanwhile, the guys on live are going to be playing in 105 degree weather and humidity at a, some weird course in Houston. Like it's just interesting to me how we've kind of come to this. I've thought about it as well. And like my take on it is I think that 99%

percent of golfers like to play the week before a major. They just don't necessarily want to play four rounds on a hard golf course. Yeah. If there was something you could do, 36 hole event, something so I think they could play, but not really play because they want the reps and they want to play. But yeah, to grind late on a Sunday where the winning score is probably going to be what 800 par, 10 under par. I don't know. It's a lot.

I know that you're going to understand this reference because you talked to him as well. I'm getting bombarded with Cam Davis texts by our friend Kyle right now. Like we're at, like I've been getting us open qualifying updates from Kyle since I woke up at 6.00 AM Pacific time, but I'm getting, I'm getting absolutely. I assume Cam Davis is melting. So we are talking all caps, huge birdie putt.

Cam Davis is alive. Huge birdie putt. Another playoff hole free golf. We are so alive right now. Oh man. That's cool. I hope Adam Scott gets in. It seems crazy that they didn't give him an exemption, but I guess when you haven't won one, it's, it's, it's hard to do that. So I think Neiman not qualifying is the biggest takeaway. Huge. I've been a Neiman guy. I, I,

I believe in his talent. He's a lot younger than people think he is. I bet him at the PGA championship, he not to be a total live stand by any means, but like, he's been the best player on that tour all season. Yeah. He's the, one of the only guys that's like shown up for work every single week at live and produced. And I was pretty surprised that he didn't qualify because to me, like heading into the PGA championship, I was like,

talking about him as really proverbially being a top 10 to 12 player in the world. And listen, you know, every guy has a bad day, but, you know, the guys that qualified over him at the Bears Club, I mean, yeah.

Let's see. It was, it was a tough golf course. He picked one of the tougher Matt Kuchar. Well, no shame in losing to Dean Burmester, but Matt Kuchar, Daniel, Daniel Berger, who was a core play for me last week and shot 77 on Friday to miss the cut and take my DraftKings lineups and then goes eight under through his thirst. First 13 holes, three days later. And then Luke Clanton, Luke Clinton stud. Yeah.

Is he? Yeah. He was part of that Florida State team that just lost in NCAA finals. Yeah. He was probably their number one towards the end of the year. You know, I saw that Florida State team on Sunday. They were playing. A lot of those guys were out at San Francisco on Sunday morning. Yeah. Him and one of his teammates, Fred Ketcher from Denmark, he got in today too. Yeah.

Then I watched your video for a second there, but we're audio only. There you go. I'm looking at here at golf.com the notables that failed to qualify.

Ryan Armour, Luke Donald, Brandon Grace, Graham McDowell, Joaquin Neiman, Patrick Rogers, Carl Schwartzel, Peter O'Learn, and Yvonne Lahiri. So tough showing for Liv. Bad day for Liv today. Yeah. One of them is not like the other there. Neiman is a world-class talent. Yeah.

I don't like his fit at Pinehurst the way I did at Valhalla, but it's pretty surprising. Yeah, no, it sucks. He's, he's awesome. And I just feel like when he left for live, it was at the height of his powers. He was trending up, you know, as much as anybody who went over there. So it's certainly missed watching him play. Okay. Let's do some, let's do some Memorial. So we talked about the golf course a little bit. I've already spent a lot of time breaking down the golf course. I want to get right into the odds. Okay.

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So Scheffler plus 375, Rory 9-1, Zander 9-1. I know you didn't bet any of those guys, and I didn't bet any of those guys either, but I still want to stop there. And maybe you can provide some strong pushback to me, seeing as you bet –

Morikawa. Did you bet Hovland too? I did. Yeah. Okay. So you bet Morikawa. I'm not going to bet Morikawa. I am very close to betting Hovland, but I want to start with those big three. And listen, I know that nobody in our community is going to bet these guys because that's, that's not what we do. But to me,

Like when I ran my numbers for Memorial, I actually think that there is. And again, like this can change pretty quickly. If more color needs to show me a little bit more, but he's on the right track. Hovland, obviously on the right track, getting things back. Like to me, those guys statistically on this golf course are,

These are the three best guys on the PGA Tour. Obviously, there's a big gap between one, two, and three. It's Scheffler and then Rory and Xander. I actually think the way that Rory and Xander are playing right now and the way that they set up for this golf course need to be talked about in a tier higher than Hovland and Markala. My reasoning for this is

I think Memorial separates elite tee to green play better than maybe any other regular PGA tour golf course on tour. Like statistically, this is the toughest iron course on tour. You outlined why that is small firm greens, uh,

50% of shots coming from 175 yards plus. It's a toughest, it's one of the toughest short game courses on tour, right? Like if you're going to have a course with thick rough around the greens, this is about as challenging as it's going to get, right? Like the greens are small, firm undulation to them, super thick rough. And, and,

It's a, it's a really big total driving golf course too. Like this is a golf course where you can separate off the tee accuracy matters. It's not winged foot or Oak Hill bombing gouge. Like the fairways are actually wide enough where accurate players will be able to yield an advantage by hitting fairways. I just think as a total tee to green test, it's,

I don't know. A man, Scheffler? I think the two best golf courses on the PGA Tour for Scottie Scheffler's skill set are Augusta and Pinehurst. Muirfield Village might be three. I think you're right. Yeah. If I had to pick one, I would bet Scottie. He would be the only bet of the week.

He's going to be there on Sunday. His floor is six, probably. He was, what, five strokes putting and finished third last year? Yeah. He's going to be there barring he gets sick or something or he gets arrested.

With the other two, specifically Rory and Xander, and again, we're certainly nitpicky here. Xander has no top tens here in, what, eight appearances or seven appearances? Yeah, but every finish is between 11th and 18th. Sure. But again, now he's... He's never contended. Yeah, that's not going to get you anything. And Rory also, you know, plays here every year. He has one top five in the last 10 years here. So again, is Rory going to suck? No, he's probably going to finish 8th or 9th or 10th or 12th, but...

I'm going to lean on the course history a little more between these guys. And again, you're getting double the odds for Victor and for Morikawa. They've both done really well at this golf course. Both of them are in that upward trend towards a win and haven't gotten there yet. While Xander and obviously Scotty and Maury have gotten those wins. So I don't like playing the you're due for a win narrative, but they're due for a win. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. The other thing that I would just think is fair to mention with Rory and Xander, the reason why, I don't know, I just don't want to, not that anyone's sleeping on them, but I just haven't heard them be part of much discussion over the last, first of all, Rory's the best week before a major player, maybe ever. Like if you look at his strokes gained the week before a major, I mean, it's unparalleled. He's gaining like

almost three strokes per round the week before major. Obviously he won whale hollow the week before major. I find it really hard to believe that Rory is going to finish his career without a Memorial. I know that, uh,

I know that you, and that's not even like a PGA tour joke about how Rory can't win majors anymore. And he's just going to rack up wins. Like, I actually think this is a really good golf course for Rory. Like he plays really well on these golf courses. He, he is a great chipper out of thick rough. Um, he, he looked pretty amazing to me over the weekend at, uh,

at Hamilton and he's still a phenomenal long arm player. He's driving the ball pretty straight right now too. And the other piece was Xander too, that I just want to mention. I'm not a floodgates guy, but I do think the way that Xander is playing right now, like the last time that he won, uh,

He won the week after and he specifically talked in that press conference. I'm paraphrasing about like, man, I just need to see the ball go through the hoop. I do very much think it's in play that Xander just keeps playing insane golf the rest of the year. And this is just his season. So I guess this is more of a betting conversation than a DFS pod, but like, I'm curious to see if we get a situation where like,

Like everybody plays Morikawa and everyone plays Scheffler. And there's a bit of an opportunity from a DFS perspective on Rory or Xander. It could be. And I think, again, when you look at certain data golf sites, it's,

They've skewed it that way. They've leaned iron play. They've leaned accuracy. Like the top three values on data golf right now are Henley, Siwu, and Murakawa. So I think that tells you where people are going to go. I was looking. So what you said about sort of the approach shots, 175 and beyond, it's pretty bunched like in that 150 to 200 range, but the best names are all very obvious. Scotty, Zanders, Alatoris, Murakawa, Connors, et cetera.

One thing that I found interesting is if you look at the over 200 numbers, and I'm just going to sort by who's in this field, Xander is number one by such a margin. Yeah.

The margin between him and number two, who's Corey Connors in that bucket, is the same as the margin between Corey Connors and JT Poston. That's how good Xander has been with his iron, especially long iron. So maybe I am underrating Xander a little bit. By the way, there are a lot of important things at Mirafield, but if you're drafting skills,

Is long arm play probably your number one draft pick? Yeah, it probably is. I agree. Like I would put longer. Maybe my number two draft pick would be like total driving. Maybe my third would be, you know, chipping out of the rough. But I still think at the end of the day, like long arm play would be my number one draft pick. Moving on to Morikawa, my best argument against it is, is it that easy? Morikawa historically hasn't,

You can correct me if I'm wrong, because this is anecdotal. I don't have a ton of evidence. I feel like most times Morikawa wins. It's not when everyone thinks he's going to win. And now it's just like we're all deciding that at 14 to one, it's Morikawa time.

I get the course fit. I totally, totally do. So I don't think you're wrong, but I mean, all of his wins for the most part, again, he hits the shit out of the ball. All of his wins have been off of really strong trends of iron off the tee game. It's always just been, Oh, this is the week I make putts, right? Like he gains off the tee and approach every single week. It's just going to be, is he going to lose four strokes putting, or is he going to gain six strokes putting? And again,

Again, you mentioned it earlier. His short game has turned around. Specifically, his around the green game has turned around. And it might just be that easy this week. I don't know. Yeah. And the reason I kind of feel pressured to make a decision on... I'm leaning towards VAC, by the way. Because the only three bets I've made are 55, 55, and 75. So I definitely have room to add a big dog at the top. Yeah. If you actually look at these signature events...

It really is all stars. Like once you, once you get past Chris Kirk won a putting contest at the century. Okay. That shouldn't be a signature event. What a dumb golf course for, you know, right. But after that, it's Wyndham, Scheffler, Scheffler, Scheffler, Rory. Like, and at the time Wyndham was, uh,

And Matsuyama at Riviera. And Matsuyama. So I guess Windham and Matsuyama are the longer shots. And I would even argue that this golf course is the most major-like than any signature event that we've had this year. I agree. Yeah, I mean, okay, so let's move down a little bit more. Okay, so I'm going to break this down into some three balls for you. Yeah. Ludwig Cantlay JT.

Oh, man. Not Pantley. I don't care. I was looking at him. Can you can you talk me off that? Just I can't I can't find a reason to talk you on to it other than he likes the golf course and he's going to be low on. Like, I can't I can't really make any other argument. Like he's shown no upside except, again, for Harbortown, which, again, is a very gimmicky golf course that he always plays well at.

He just hasn't done it on a real golf course. Hasn't done it in majors, that's for sure. Something's up with Ludwig, the injury. I don't want to blame a bad PGA on the injury, but he didn't look right.

It was the worst he's played. So I guess by default, that means JT, who is still playing better than I think the results show. So yeah, I guess JT out of that three ball. Led the field in tee to green at the PGA championship. Has that kind of a weird history at Memorial? He should have won the one against Collin. Well, I think that's golf course can play pretty different than that year. Remember that was the easier setup.

That was the workday one? Is that? Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. I've been pretty in on the JT resurgence and it hasn't really paid off the way that I hoped it would. I still think he's going to win a golf tournament. But I don't think he's regressed though, has he? Like, I wouldn't say he's gotten worse. He's, he's been there. He's had a sneaky good season. Like I don't know. The PGA, right? Yeah. He just, he sucked at the masters. He sucked at the players. And I think that's, that's what people are.

kind of focused on. So as we dig a little bit further, I've made, I've mentioned, I've made three bets at 55, 55 and 75, which I can touch on briefly. So what were your calling and vector numbers? And did you add anyone else? I did. And probably we have some overlap because like when I first looked at this, there were five guys in that 45 to 66 range.

Connors, Keegan, Benny Ahn, Sepp Strzoka, Tom Kim. I could have bet those five and just called it a day, but I ended up cutting Keegan and Connors. As much as I love them, they don't win. So Colin at 16, that's obviously win only. Hovland at 18, win only. And then I have each ways on Benny Ahn. I think that one's 55, Tom Kim at 60, and Sepp at 66. And that's it.

Yeah, I'm not going to do the whole Benny sell again because I actually, I thought it was one of my better Sunday pod sells on Benny. I got a lot of like, oh yeah, Benny week, which means it's probably dead. But I do think that this man is very, very close. And I would like the field to be a little bit weaker, but I'm actually pretty...

I'm pretty low on putting this week. Just, just a weaker field. We got a smaller feeling. How's that? Right. Right. Right. And you know, Benny played well at Augusta this year. I know he was okay at Valhalla. He's lost in a playoff at Memorial before he either misses the cut here or top twenties. So I just, I,

I'm telling you, man, he really passes the eye test like that. You talk about bombers. You talk about, uh, high ball flight, like dude hits a dude hits it fricking high. And he didn't. So you mentioned about hollow where he played. Okay. Uh, he gained in all four strokes game categories. Like I don't care if you finish 13th or 43rd.

You're playing well if you're gaining in all four strokes in categories at a major championship. So, and that was after what fourth at the CJ cup third at the Wells Fargo. So I'm pretty offended that this guy wasn't on your short list, but what is the case against a former us open champion who won at a golf course, won a us open golf course? Yeah. Yeah. Let me give the sell.

A former U S open champion that one at a golf course that I actually think both agronomically and in terms of skillset is, is pretty similar to Muirfield village actually, who gained over a stroke in both ball striking categories at the PGA championship, who may be the best chipper out of thick rough in this entire field and has this long resume and track record of success and

at these Bay Hills, these, um, yeah. Country club of Brookline. He's got two top tens at Mirafield village, um, including a ninth place last year and a third, the year that I got really thermic firm in 2020 with John Rom. He drives the ball really well at this golf course. Like Fitz has gained over three strokes off the tee in his last three appearances here. And he's 55 to one. Yeah. Yeah.

How is that not like you're not even a little bit intrigued there? So I get I would turn it around with one question. What what has actually done well this year? I can't figure him out. I can't figure him out. I was I was the original fit stand. I pushed for this guy for years. He broke through.

he's one, I mean, I sort of lump him in with Max Homa. I cannot figure out those two any week right now. I have no idea what they do well. I have no idea when they're going to play well. Could Fitz win? Sure. Could he finish third? Sure. Could he miss another cut? Yeah. Yeah. Well, what if, like, what if that is who Fitz is, right? Like, I think that maybe coming out of the U S open, uh,

People thought that this was going to be a proverbial top 10 player in the world. And he was for a little bit. He's gone through stretches like that before. But I actually think who Fitz actually is, is like a low floor, high ceiling guy. I think he's the type of guy that is viable to miss a cut any week. Like I played him at Quail Hollow and he was horrendous, like absolutely terrible. Miss a cut at Valhalla.

But I think he's the type of player that is just going to pop up and win a big tournament every 6, 12, 18 months. And I think every time – like it's very number dependent for me. I wouldn't be betting if that's at 30-1 here. But I think if you just want to say, hey, anytime Matt Fitzpatrick is over 50-1 on a long and difficult course with that gruff, I don't think you're going to go broke. Yeah.

doing that. No, I'm with you. Yeah. Just a little too inconsistent for me. Like even I'm just looking at a scrubs game stuff.

Seems like every other week he's gaining off the tee, he's losing off the tee. He's gaining approach, he's losing approach. He's gaining around. Just hasn't put it together, except for Sawgrass. He played really well there. That was one week he seemed to put it all together. But it's a good number, right? Him, Homa, they're better players than Benion. I think 55 is a very good number. Yeah, Homa 55. That feels like a bit of an overaction to a tough two days at Colonial. I don't think I'm betting that, but...

Home of 55. Like that's another guy where, you know, I had some friends that had, um, it's

hundred to one home of masters tickets. I still think that some of these class play. And I mean, you saw more college draft to 50, 60 at the masters too. I still think that when some of these class players draft, I have a couple of friends that like exclusively bet that way. Like you just see some crazy numbers week of on players that aren't in great form. I'd

I'd monitor the Homa, the Homa situation. I, I, I don't think he always needs to show us.

Yeah. And again, anecdotally, like when I watch Max Wilmer right now, it looks like he's trying very hard. When he was at the peak of his power list for the last 18 months, a couple of years. And, you know, he really was awesome all summer, end of the year, through the playoffs. He took a trip to an African safari and one down there as well. Like it seemed like golf was easy for him. And it seems like he's trying really hard this year. The only other guy that...

Well, okay. So I bet Zalatars, we already talked to him a little bit at 75 to one that, that just felt fairly disrespectful to me. Like Zalatars is 75 in draft Kings and Denny McCarthy is 76. Now I, of course it's like 30 next week too. So, right. And, and now I understand the course history with, with Denny, but if you think that he is just going to continually gain 11 strokes, putting at the Memorial, like we're, we're,

And you're going to play him over Zalatoris on a long and difficult golf course. We do not view the way he plays. Yeah, he can't gain off the tee here. His irons aren't great. He just makes every putt. So yeah, that's going to be a hard pass for me, especially where he's priced. And for DraftKings, he's the same as Keegan and Seth and Zalatoris. He's just not that guy. Yeah.

Right. If you're telling me, like, there's the Denny roadmap is in play, I think I'd rather play Bez at, like, $800 cheaper, who's also been pretty good at Memorial. Yeah. What's surprising to me, DataGolf has Denny as the 19th best player in the world. That seems egregiously high. They also have Russell Henley as the 8th best player. Well, yeah. But he doesn't even have the iron play that Russell has. Like, that just seems...

He hasn't had a great year. It just seems egregiously high. No, I get the Russ thing. Like, I genuinely do. I am a Russell-head guy. Yeah, as a data guy, like, I fully understand the Russ thing and am somewhat culpable in talking him up. I just...

I thought about 50 to one. I do think this is a phenomenal golf course for him. I really wanted a 70 or 80 on him still. And in a signature event, I, I still, I still think you need a 70 or 80, like to be honest with you, why, why bet Ross at 50 when you can bet Zalatorris and Lowry at 75? Like why not Lowry this week?

Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense. I think people are turned off by his putting. Not that that's the most important skill here, but I think we've seen it so many times in the spotlight on a Sunday that the dude just can't putt. Yeah. Except for one day at Valhalla, apparently. That one day at Valhalla. We'll always have that 62. So the other guy that I bet that we just kind of glossed over was Seth. I think you talk about a guy who is better than Denny McCarthy.

I love that. He has turned a corner and just crushes these big boy golf courses. One on the Nicholas course at PGA has shown up in majors. Ball striking is great. He has one of the streakiest putters on tour as well. Like why can't that guy win? I don't disagree. I don't disagree. I'm a huge SEP guy myself. My only retort would be,

He is the same number as Cameron young and Tony female. Do you think he is, do you think he's the same level? I've sworn them off, but I've sworn them off. Yeah, no, I just, I actually like female more than Cam young in general. I, I just, I I'm really over the cab young thing. Really over done, done, really over it. And I bet him at least four times this year. Yeah. And if he, I'm may not be quite as much, but I've, I've gone to him at like, I,

He was awesome for me at the masters. He was in a great DFS lineup for me at the masters. I really thought he was winning the next week at the heritage. And I tracked him closer that week. I went to that heritage as it's just like, dude, what are you doing? Um, so I don't know if he beats me at even he's starting to get priced up there, but yeah, for sure.

Okay. Anyone else you want to touch on? Did we miss anyone? I kind of went through all the names. I, I wanted to, I like road and DFS a lot, I guess. Yeah. I was going to say, you want to talk to a couple of cheap guys at that same price? I'm not, I'm not done with Taylor Penderth yet. Our story is not over. Yeah.

Went to Kent State in Northeast Ohio. So obviously, you know, has played a lot of golf in this area. Big golf course, big hitter, can be a good putter. And obviously, you know, the iron play isn't great, but he's

He's playing as good now as he'll play. I'm also not done with Adam Svensson. Also got through his qualifier today. I loved him in Canada. He did okay. Yeah, I loved him too in Canada. I think this golf course fits him really well too, especially if the iron play can get cooking a little bit.

and then I would be remiss if I didn't mention college kid, Jackson Kovun. This kid is unbelievable. We'll be every bit as good of an amateur coming out as Hovland or a collar Wolf. He's a freshman, uh, just won a national championship, uh, with Auburn as a freshman as their number one, as their anchor. Uh,

I think he missed qualifying today by a shot or two. He shot like six under or seven under in Georgia. So he's going to be obnoxiously good and he's 18 years old. So I think he'll make the cut this week. There were some really, uh, deep top 20, 30, 40 numbers, uh,

early this morning, but he's going to be a star. So keep an eye on him. All right, dude. Thanks for joining me. This is a blast. Great little golf chat. You got, you got anything to plug? Not yet. No, no, just, just being a podcast pinch hitter from time to time. And we are really excited for these next, really these next four to five weeks, you know, a couple of signature events major, and then we get what Scottish open and open championships. So it's the best time. Yeah. Scottish right into the open. Yeah.

Yeah, these next six weeks are going to be awesome. Yeah. All right, Ryan Baroff. Good to see you, my man. Thanks for having me. Talk soon. All right, that's it for the podcast. Special thanks to Ryan. Special thanks to Rumpier Sports. Special thanks to The Rabbit Hole. And we'll be back on this podcast feed on Friday, breaking down Pinehurst with Steve Bamford, U.S. Open week. Until then, best of luck with your bets. And we will see you next time. Cheers. ♪ If I ventured in the slipstream ♪

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Memorial Picks, U.S. Open Qualifying Subplots & Pinehurst with Ryan Baroff