Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
All right, my COVID week. I don't think I have anything to talk about off the top, no news or announcements. So let's dive right into my conversation with Ryan Baroff of the Golflandia.
All right. Ryan Baroff is here of the Golflandia podcast, one of my all-time favorites. I was just telling him off air. I need you guys to come back soon, man. Are you guys picking it back up in January or just kind of TBD for the moment? It's probably going to be January. Matt has become the showdown king and the NHL king and the king of everything else. But I do expect we'll be back in January. I have a funny Wiley story for you.
Cool. Let's hear it. All right. Okay. So you guys did a pod in like August. I think it was, can't remember the name of the tournament. I want to say it was like the Wyndham or the BMW or, or Northern trust. There was some tournament in August and, um,
He did this rant. This wasn't the segment that you were on. So I don't even know if you've heard this. I don't know if you even listen back because it wasn't the segment. It wasn't the segment that you've done. But anyway, he does this rant. I can't remember whether it was to open or close the podcast, but he did this rant on like the oversaturation of golf DFS content in the industry. And I thought it was fucking poetic. I thought it was like,
I agreed with so many of the things that he was saying. And I'll do this sometimes when I like a podcast or something like that. I'll DM them and just be like, that was some really good stuff, man. So anyway, he goes on this rant.
I thought it was really insightful. I really enjoyed it. It was like this total like get off my lawn. I thought it was hilarious. And I actually agreed with a lot of the things he was saying as well. So I DMed him and we've never, we follow each other on Twitter, but we've never actually talked before. I DMed him and I was like,
man, that was great. Like, I really enjoyed what you were saying. I really agreed with a lot of the points that you were making. And he responded immediately. He responded really thoughtfully with like, I think I sent him like one paragraph and he responded back with like two or three. Like he had a very thoughtful response. And I was sitting there like,
All right, sweet. Like this guy that I have been following for a really long time that I really respect and look up to, he wants to have like a long-winded, insightful, thoughtful conversation with me about like the state of
golf content. This is great. Like, let's fucking go. So I responded back with something even longer and I probably went a little overboard, but I was like, I was like, oh, interesting. Like, this is what I would say to this. Like, this would be my counter to that. Like I responded back with like four or five paragraphs, right? Immediately reads it, never responds. I was like, how?
I was like, oh, I really misread this situation. Matt would be the first to tell you he's got the attention span of an ant. So that's probably what it was. I would try again. I mean, yeah. But yeah, Matt's really good people. He always wants the best for everybody. Like you said, he's not bigger than anybody. He'll give you the time of day and he can have insightful conversations on a number of topics. So that's awesome. I thought it was funny because-
I like on deeper inspection, I thought about, and I was like, oh, this is, this is truly the last thing that he wants to be doing on a Wednesday afternoon right now is having like a very long winded conversation on the state of golf content. When he just went on a rant about how he hates everyone with this guy that he doesn't even know. Like I, I really misread that one, but you're, you're right. I know. I, I, it's, I thought it was really funny. Yeah.
Yeah, no, Matt's great. So yeah, I mean, Matt runs an ad agency, right? So I'm texting with him most days, right? And we'll go back and forth for an hour. And then exactly like that, he'll just go silent for like 20 hours. I just assume that he's working or doing something, but yeah, it totally happens. All right. Well, anyway, who knows? Maybe he catches wind of this, but as you mentioned, he doesn't listen to anything. So I think we're safe.
But okay, man, should we get into this tournament? What is it? The Worldwide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, right? It sounds like a Silicon Valley retreat. It sounds like Mexico's version of TechCrunch. Well, it sounds like a Champions Tour event because they always have weird sponsors like this.
I don't, I guess it was the OHL and then they've changed it a bunch of times. You're right. We're going to refer to it as myacoba for the purposes of this podcast, but it's a full field event. There's 132 players. I believe there is a cut. Hovland won here last year at 20 under.
Brendan Todd, Matt Kuchar, Patton Gazire, Pat Perez, Graham McDowell, Charlie Hoffman, Harris English, really an eclectic group of past champions, which I think makes sense when you consider this course. It's at El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. It's a par 71 measuring 6,987 yards, past palm throughout.
Greg Norman design. So next time we're here, it might be for the Saudi masters. I've got a couple of thoughts on the course, but I'll kick it to you first. What are you looking for this week? Yeah. I mean, standard kind of short, easy resort course. I think probably going to count very well to what we saw last week, albeit an exceptionally better field this week than we had last week.
That list of winners you rattled off, I think the first thing that comes to mind is not really good drivers of the golf ball. Not that they're bad drivers of the golf ball, but like not guys who are going to gain most of their strokes off the tee. So for me, it's going to be iron play. It's going to be scrambling. And I think there are some very easy comp courses. Number one being the Sony Open. A lot of crossover between the winners here and there. So that's pretty much where I'm starting.
I like what you said about the driving accuracy because that's actually a thing that I've heard a lot already this week is that this is a course that's really, really important for driving accuracy. And I don't disagree with that. I think that's true to a certain extent, but
A lot of these guys, it's really hard to gauge statistically how accurate players are because the driving accuracy statistics that most people tend to look at are when guys are hitting driver. So when guys can hit three iron on this course and three wood on this course, which they can because it's a really short course, it kind of changes the game. So guys that are maybe super inaccurate with their driver, they're
doesn't mean there's a bad course for them because they, I mean, Patton Kazire is a perfect example of that, but I agree with that. I'm kind of honing in a little bit more on, on iron play more than, more than I normally would. And the other, the only other thing that I would add, and then we'll get into, to the odds, but I, I think past Paul and,
I think it kind of levels the playing field with putting a little bit. That's not to say that elite putters are at a disadvantage. We've had plenty of awesome putters when here, but if you look at some of the leaderboards from some of these past Palm courses, even most recently at the PGA, uh,
lot of not so great putters. And I think that's just because it's a slower, uh, thicker grainless surface and it doesn't, um, it doesn't tend to grow well on, on really undulating greens and, and these greens are pretty flat. So I think there might be, it's just another excuse to maybe buy in on some of those team no puck guys that I love. We'll get to Stanley soon. I was going to say, we'll get to Russell. Yeah. Yeah.
Okay. So let's, uh, let's do, let's do the odds, man. I'm going to give you guys the favorites. All odds are courtesy of, I think I did FanDuel this time, but you know, throw out whatever numbers you want. So, so 30 and below, these are the guys.
So we got Justin Thomas, 10 to 1, Hovland, 14, Finau, 22, Answer, 27, Scheffler, 27, Reed, 27, Brooks, 27, Hatton, 29, Wise, 29. Let's stop there and talk about those guys. What the hell is Aaron Wise doing in that group is my first question.
I know. I know. There's a couple of interesting ones. You kick us off. Who are you kind of honing in on in this range? Yeah, man. So I think the best
So of that, because I have different odds, but answer at 27 would make a lot of sense. I don't have that number, so I'm not going to go there. But of those other guys, I mean, I think Finau makes a lot of sense. Not necessarily a good course fit for him, but he's played well here. Obviously won the Puerto Rico Open. He can kind of play well everywhere, right? He drives it really well. He can club down. Like you mentioned with the putting, I think a course like this will help him. And he's dramatically improved his putting.
But honestly, what I'm waiting for is a small drift on Justin Thomas. And if he can get to 14, I think that's where I'm going to go here. Okay. I'm glad you brought up Justin Thomas because no one's been taught. I've really considering betting him. And I was looking at the 12 to 1. I just think we're due for like a JT draft.
just smash me. This is the time of the year that he smashes. And you talk about past Palom. He won in Korea twice. So, right. Exactly. Exactly. And, and I think,
You're right. You're right. So eight of his 14, I tweeted this earlier today, but eight of his 14 PGA Tour wins have come between the months of October and January. All eight of them were outside the mainland U.S. as well. So I think he's a guy that everyone's going to overlook him because his odds are too short. So they're just going to immediately rule him out. And maybe they are too short, but I think 90% of the people are going to bet answer at 20%.
20 to 1 or 23 to 1 and if you're asking me if i'd rather bet answer at 20 or jt at 12 i actually don't think it's close in my opinion i agree yeah i don't think that's a good number for answer like the 27 was okay but i feel a lot better with him kind of mid 30s so yeah if if there's anybody that i'm betting down here uh by under 40 or 35 it's certainly going to be justin thomas
Can I run by a crazy Brooks thought with you first? Because it's like I've fallen into this very unprofitable habit where I just keep staring at
at Brooks at, at all these non-majors when he's above 25 to one. And I just continue to think that once those odds start drifting up with him again, he's going to like win one of these bullshit tournaments. My, am I crazy for continuing to like give him this hard look? Because for me, if I didn't go JT, I think the guy I'd want to bet is Brooks, especially if it gets to 30. Yeah. I guess my concern with Brooks is, is, you know, what is he doing this time of year? Uh,
just doesn't seem like a guy who's going to grind it out this time of year in terms of priorities and practices and things like that. But I also just don't think it's a great course fit. You know, he tends to excel on the harder tracks. And I don't know if Brooks is the guy who's going to come out here and make 28 or 30 birdies. What do you think the over-under is on Jenna's Instagrams this week? It's got to be like nine. Yeah, I mean, they were just in Vegas. They've been all over the place. So, yeah, I mean, look, he's probably going to make the cut. He'll probably be fine. He'll probably score...
quite a bit, but I don't see him winning this week. Okay. I need to hear that sometimes. Me and my buddy Luke go, like, as soon as the odds come out, we're always like, how can we justify betting Brooks this week? But I think I have been in the, uh,
the camp of him not caring about majors or sorry, only caring about majors. I think it's like a little bit of a act that he puts on that, that take for me hasn't been aging that great. And this is like probably the most obvious Brooks doesn't care week because he's in one of the most beautiful places in the world. So I probably need to put a little bit more credence into that. I just think like,
I was talking with a couple people about that. I don't mean to shit on answer, but I just think Brooks is in a different class. And I get it. Context matters in golf tournaments. And I just think that when I see them priced next to each other, answer has one major top 10 in his entire career. One. And I don't know if they're in the same class. And I think because that dude...
he falls into this really weird Memphis win where Harris gives it away and Brooks gives it away. And Cam Smith kind of vomits all over himself too. Now it's just a green light for all the people that were betting answer at 20 to one before he won. Now it's just like, ah, you can't call me a square for betting a answer at 20 to one anymore. He's got his win. He's got pedigree now. It's like,
no, I'm never going to choose him at a shorter number than Brooks. I just think they're in a different class, but that's just me. Yeah, I agree. And I think the other thing that I'll say here about the top of the board is I think it's a great week for a live ad after round one.
uh okay because you get these short easy resort courses like if tyler duncan goes out there and shoots a 62 right and he posts a number and and these guys are now eight shots back i mean you're gonna see their odds double so if you know if you want to get brooks maybe wait around and get him at 45 or 50.
You want to talk about any of these other guys like Wise or Hatton, Scheffler or Reed? Any interest in any of these guys? Maybe not outright Wise, but are you playing any of those guys? Yes. I am likely betting Patrick Reed. I haven't decided yet. But again, he was really good last week. He putted really well. And when you get a course like this, it's windy and you got to scramble and you got to make a lot of birdies. I'd rather...
play the guy who I just saw make 25 birdies for DraftKings. I think Scottie Scheffler is going to go very, very under-owned, and I have a lot of interest in that. Yeah, me too. Me too with Scheffler as well. I also think with Aaron Wise, obviously I think we're priced out of Aaron Wise, right? I think there's like a DFS Galaxy brand situation where...
like the narrative becomes that wise is so overpriced. Maybe this happens with Billy Horschel too. I don't know, but the narrative, I think, but Horschel just won. That's the only thing, but again, if, if, if he's low owned or Sheffer's low owned, I'm just going to play guy who has the lowest ownership there.
Okay, me too, because I was looking at the wise thing and I was like, all right, yeah, I get these odds are ridiculous, but I mean, he's like a near perfect fit for this course on paper. Last time he was actually on past Palom at the PGA, he gained 3.5 strokes putting and he's coming off a fifth at the CGA Cup in a really good field. So that's his second start in a row where he's gained strokes in all four major categories and it
it just kind of seems like he's, he's found something with the putter. So I would, yeah, it's kind of ownership dependent with me on wise, but I would actually pay that price if no one else is going to him. I don't think anyone else is going. That's the thing. It gets like it, it, and we'll kind of use this to transition into some of these other guys. Like,
It starts into this thing with Wise, and I think Gooch is another good example of this, where Gooch is priced a lot higher than he normally is, both in betting and in DraftKings, where...
If, if the narrative people start tweeting like, Oh my God, Aaron wise, like 29 to one stuff like that. It's like, listen, like the odds makers, they're generally smarter than us in general. Like if, if no one's playing wise, like I'll, I'll play him. And I think, I think some of these other guys too, like I was looking at, we'll just start anyone else before we get into like the mid tier that we didn't mention that you want to touch on.
No, I mean, yeah, I think Gooch and Wise are the two. And I never play them anyways. I'm certainly not going to pay them at this price. If they burn me, they burn me. I will say both are extremely high in my model. Gooch is a little bit higher. So I guess if I had to pick one, it would certainly be Gooch over Wise.
What about sneaking into this range of, of Billy Horschel and Tringali and Shane Lowry and Fitzpatrick and, and Zalatoris, Norrin, Matt Wolf, Sergio Garcia, Rose, Bazaydenhout, Fowler. Those are, uh, uh, Neiman as well. Those are kind of all the guys 50 and below. Are you going, so you're, you're, you're thinking about JT, you're thinking about Reed. Are you kind of hitting this section too, a little bit? I,
I will probably hit one here and one in the hundreds. And I'm very torn here because my first lean was just keep betting Nito, right? At 50 or 60, whatever he is. And I'll probably end up doing that. But the other guy who I really, really like here, and I don't know what the ownership is going to be like, is Russell Hanley.
Yeah, it's going to be high. My buddy, John, who's the, yeah, because he, you know, PGA tout on Twitter. Yeah. My, I tell him every, we have like a group chat and, and his, his spotlight guys, he, he wrote, he did the, I don't know if you read his, his preview article, but he like picks one player every week and,
And those got, he like to spotlight, right. To say like, I think this guy's gonna be really good. And he like, again, it's an echo chamber, but like, so like, I really don't know how much this like actually affects ownership, but it, it, no, there's a few people who do. And, and, and it depends, you know, who retreats what, uh, it's the same for Euro. Like there aren't many Euro resources out there when Ben Coley tweets his picks, the odds crash.
Like, yeah, one guy and one website and absolutely happened. So
Okay. Well, shout out John in my little Twitter echo chamber, his, his spotlight guy, everyone seems to teams to jump on that guy. And Henley Henley is, is the guy who's looking at, but, but I cut you off. Tell me more about why you like him. Well, yeah. I mean, one, I think his, his form is a little bit underrated back-to-back top 25 to start the season plays these sorts of short windy courses really well, obviously can scramble. Well, it used to be a great putter. I don't know what's happened, but maybe he's,
got that back. And if you're looking at, at guys who have had success at the Sony open, you know, look no further than Russell Henley. Yeah. So, and I mean, the only thing that I would add to that is he just gained almost seven strokes, ball striking in a really good field at the CJ cup. The irons are just, I mean, even for him, they're really kind of firing right now. And
I think he's gained over 5.2 on approach in four of his last six starts. I think my only concern would be that since the kind of debacle at the Wyndham where he kind of really lost his putter in that final round and gave that one away a little bit, he's gone minus 6.1, minus 2.5, minus 1.3, minus 5.1. But again...
Past Palm, I think you could argue that's a pretty good get-right spot. Yeah, no, absolutely. And again, so maybe that is the guy who I end up betting if he is going to be chalky. I'll get my exposure that way, but I certainly want some Russell Henley this week.
Okay. So I want to touch on Mito too, because he, he rated out number one for me as well. And I think because he's long, I mean, people are still, still gonna, you know, do their thing with him, but I think because he's long off the tee that might kind of coincide with people thinking he's a better fit on longer courses, but he is so accurate.
too, by all my metrics. He's almost like Hovland in that sense, where I think he still has a pretty big advantage on this course. And
Again, I think if you're going to take a chance on some really bad putters, I think past palm is a decent surface to test out that hypothesis. I'll say this about Mito as well. Fantastic results in South America. These all came last year on the corn fairy tour, but, and I don't even really follow the corn fairy tour, but fourth at the Mexico championship, third at the Panama championship, first at CCD Bogota.
So he's never finished worse than fourth in South America in the last year and a half. Yeah. And I mean, he seems to play well everywhere. And I think, again, when you have a guy from the Korn Ferry Tour who gets that battlefield promotion, right? That is a prolific winner. And yes, there's a skill jump from Korn Ferry Tour up to PGA Tour. But if you win three times, you're going to win up here, right? We saw it with Wesley Bryan, who, again, is not a great player, but he won fairly quickly after he got promoted.
Agrio, when he was number one on the Korn Ferry Tour, he came out and he won right away. We saw it with Son J.M. He's been great. Patton Keziah dominated the Korn Ferry Tour. He came out and won a couple of times. I expect Mito to win a couple of times and probably a couple of times this year. What do you think about Neiman? I just think he's going to be a massive chock.
I'm not going to bet him and I'm probably not going to play him just because of where the ownership is going to lie. You're going to get Justin Rose at a third of the ownership, I would imagine. Yeah. Really half the ownership. You might get a power at half the ownership. So I'll probably just pivot there. Yeah. I actually really like Seamus power on this court. I actually think Seamus power might be really good. Yeah. Like all this stuff with Mito.
if you actually look at the numbers and the results, I'm kind of surprised that power hasn't become the guy, like the darling that everyone is, you know, he, I think he's better.
I'll tell you why, because power has been out here longer, right? And people get accustomed to him being at a lower level and they really haven't caught up yet. Mito, like I could see Mito kind of becoming like what Xander became, right? Like when Xander came out, nobody knew about him. He was like mid seven, maybe get up to 8K, had some good finishes and then he took off. And same with him. Like, I think that's where Mito is going. Do you think Mito would be as popular as he is if his name was Scott Brown? Yeah.
What's Mito's real name? I should know this, but I don't know. It's Guillermo. Guillermo, that's right. Yeah, if... Yes, no, if he went by Guillermo, he would not be quite as chalky. Yeah, well, it's not even like Seamus has a bad name either, but yeah, I don't know. I think I like Seamus because I think what sets him apart from some of these other ball strikers is that Seamus can actually really chip and putt. And again, the other thing here is...
Him and Mito have the same odds last week at Bermuda. Seamus is way better, but now he has worse odds here. He's played the course Mito hasn't. So that's where it's like, ah, maybe Seamus is the play. Yeah. And all these guys here, I mean, I love this range. Like they're all good wind players. Like you look at Power and you look at Mito and you look at Neiman, you look at Hoffman, you look at Ortiz. Like these guys are all really good wind players. What about Fowler?
I mean, not going to get there with an outright. May have some exposure. Obviously played well here. Probably, well, he should have won here, but he lost to Pat Desire. He seems like he's close to being back. So, yeah, sure. Why not? Yeah, I was actually, I'm kind of, I don't know if I'm going to get there outright-wise either, but I think I'd rather bet both Seamus and Mito over Fowler. But I actually think that...
I'm kind of buying the resurgence a little bit because if you look at the CJ Cup...
It was all ball striking. Right. And you remember what Spieth did at Phoenix last year, where he kind of came out of nowhere. And it was like number one in approach. Yeah, exactly, man. So like that, that it kind of reminds me of that where it's like you, you dig into the numbers with Spieth when he did that. And it's like, Oh wait, Spieth finished second this week because he gained six strokes on approach, not six strokes putting. And then what do you know? He,
contends the next week at Pebble Beach and goes on to have this awesome summer. I'm not saying Ricky is as good as Spieth, but I do think he is going to have a good year. I don't think that the pop-up at the CJ Cup was
smoke and mirrors situation the way that he kind of finished top 10 randomly at the PGA Championship past Palm by the way but if you if you dig into the numbers with with Ricky he is starting to clean things up a little bit so I think you can play him here and feel okay about it but yeah both of them are going to be dads soon too so that's true that'll throw a wrench in the season but yeah I think it's a partner low own play this week but I'm not going to get there for an outright
Okay, let's move right along. Oh, there's one more guy in this kind of range that I'm going to bet. Yeah.
I've been driving the Gary Woodlands resurgence bandwagon forever, and I'm finally starting to see a little payoff from that. He just finished ninth at the CJ Cup, where he gained five strokes off the tee. I still think the perception around him, he doesn't seem like a guy that people trust, but I like this course a lot for him. He's already finished second here and actually has a really good resume on these short courses.
club down positional golf courses like he's won the valspar before he finished second twice at the whatever the simb classic is i don't it's some tournament that's on past palm that on the fall or whatever but he was he was woodland was actually the first bet i made this week at 66 to 1 i'll make this very easy for you gary woodland is probably the best draft kings play on the board
let's go yeah i don't know if i can get behind him with an outright but like yeah he's gonna tie for eighth or something this week like that's the sort of week he's gonna have
I agree. I think there's certainly been a ball striking resurgence. I have no idea what happened to him, but he lost it for like nine months. Yeah. But yeah, a great course for him. He, like you said, he's historically played well on these club down courses. He's played this course quite a bit. I think at least a handful of times has a runner up finish, albeit, you know, eight or seven years ago, whatever that was. I absolutely love Gary Wooden this week. So yeah, fully on board.
All right, I'm going to open it up to kind of all these guys going up to 100. Anyone in this, I'm not going to list all of them, but anyone kind of in this 50 to 100 range that has your attention? You mentioned Knox. Yeah, there's three for me, and I haven't decided which way I'm going to go, but Knox would be one, Varner would be two, Joel Damon would be three. Wow. At this point, I'm probably going to lean –
Damon, just because his odds are the biggest. He's like 110, I think. But in a vacuum, I think Russell Knox is probably the best play of those three. A combination of fit, scores history here, and he played pretty well last week. Yeah, so that thing that people had for answer for a while before he won, I'm so guilty of it with Varner. I think that...
And it has nothing to do with the fact that he just had a baby, but I just think this is a, I think this is a perfect spot for him. And I think there's so many slightly more obvious options in this range, like Knox because of the course history, like Carlos Ortiz, like Griot and Henley. And, and I,
I actually think it's going to be one of those week where Varner doesn't pick up a lot of steam, but you finished fifth year in 2015, six in 2019. I love this course for him. He makes a lot of birdies. He keeps the ball and play off the tee pounds greens, and he just gained 6.4 strokes ball striking at the, at the CJ cup. So that's,
If you actually look at it with Varner, this is like quietly the best stretch of golf of his entire career. He's done 11th, 12th, 16th, 11th, 32nd in his last five starts. And three of them actually came in really elite fields. So I think I'm kind of in DraftKings, even 90 to one. Yeah, DraftKings for sure. And even 90 to one, like, I don't know.
Yeah, he's number six overall. I haven't tweaked my model completely, but just kind of the rough draft, he's number six. And I know it's not a super broken model because it does have JT number one. But yeah, and I think Varner is a great candidate. Like I don't do first round leaders, but yeah, I mean, kind of guy you want to bet for first round leader this week. Yeah.
Touching on Knox too, I really like Knox too. I think Knox is like, what do you think? Knox was 25% last week and he finished 12th. So that's my concern with Russell Knox. And he's been better on this course than Bermuda.
Yeah, I think he's certainly going to be popular, but I think there's enough options here. Even Gary Woodland, if you're talking about him, others are going to talk about him. Varner will obviously be popular. Guys like Poulter and Griot always pick up some ownership. Neiman's going to be chalky. So I think it'll be fairly spread out down here.
I think you're giving me way too much credit. I have, but yeah, I mean, I know a lot, you and John and yeah, I have like chamber, you know, it's out. Oh, for sure. You or Feinberg will chime in or Joel chime in and then it's, you know, it's out. I have my like,
loyal following of people that will that will that care about my opinion but yeah i think but i've been banging the woodland drum for a while and people are like you're fucking crazy i do the same week yeah i do the same thing with brooks too and people like you're out of your mind um but anyway yeah i mean i there's some other guys that you kind of mentioned here that i like i i
I think for all the reasons that we talked about, you could play Keegan. I think it's a fine spot for him. And then...
I'll say this with Ortiz too. I think Ortiz will be very popular this week, but I think he makes a lot of sense. I think my one concern with him, I bet him at the Zozo, he had a pretty good start to that tournament and then withdrew after two rounds. Anytime someone withdraws from a tournament with guaranteed money and is like sitting in 25th place after two rounds, Zozo had a sneaky big purse too. So he was walking away with a
pretty good amount of money that that would kind of be my only red flag with him i agree uh and i think again he's he's going to garner a little bit of ownership had a pretty good ball striking out in vegas and was popular at the zozo obviously he's from mexico played well here almost one last time so i think he'll still be popular but again plenty of options down here so not overly worried you know i was looking at a little bit do you think people are going to play kuchar no i
I think people have played Stimson before Kuchar. Really? Are you going to play Kuchar? No. I haven't played Kuchar in four years. No, not going to play. I would consider Kuchar if he showed a glimpse of form and we were going to Harbor Town or something. He had his best approach week at the Shriners in months. Yeah. I don't know. He'll probably finish 40th. It doesn't do it for me. Fair.
There's a ton of good options down here. I can't argue with that. Okay. All right. So you talked about Damon. I, Damon, I love, um, he's probably my favorite top 40 play of the week. He's had 23rd, 41st, 6th, 20th, keeps the ball in playoff to see excellent wedge player, makes a ton of birdies. He's coming off 24th at the Shriners where he gained, uh,
6.3 ball striking so that's his best ball striking performance in over a year won the corrales on past paul and i don't know if he can win in this field but i think he is a very beef going with home on he wants to get the win back so yeah i think yeah i like domin a lot um okay what anyone else before we dig into some of the the grime here guys
No, no, there's definitely some lower guys, but I think that's it for that kind of mid tier. Okay. So I'm looking at all the guys, a hundred plus two, and we already, we already touched on, on Damon, who you can find at some places as high as, as a hundred and I'm seeing one 10 on Damon, which, which I might be in for.
The other guy that I want to mention that's kind of in this Damon zone, I'm a huge fan of Henrik Norlander this week. I think you can get him as high as 125, but he rates out really well for me. His irons have been awesome. He makes a ton of birdies, and he's one of the most accurate drivers that you'll find. He's coming off that 18th.
the zozo where he was like seven under through his first nine holes on sunday um and i just i think he has a lot of top five upside like he may miss the cut but he's already finished fourth this year at sanderson six earlier at barbasol he's finished second and fifth before at at uh sea island we love that comp and i think he's the type of guy that
can pop up even in a good field because of the upside that he possesses with his irons. Like he, he finished second at Torrey in a better field than that. So love Norlander this week. I can get behind it. Yeah. I'm a little hesitant when I see a guy who had a really low Sunday, but again, he's been pretty good. I mean, these first handful of events and I'm a big Norlander guy and kind of play him. And he definitely is a guy who I'll focus on, on these short kind of windy, easy coastal courses.
A couple of guys, I think people are going to go to Adam Long because he is a third and a second here. I think Pat Perez, obviously, because there's the coastal resort course thing. Who else as we dig a little bit deeper? I've got two guys. The only other two guys that I would mention are both 270 to one. Yeah.
Yeah, there's definitely some options out here. So one who's just outside of that Joel Damon range, I think in most places, I'm a sucker for Chris Kirk. Yeah, sure. And like, if you're going to make comps with Sony and with RSM and with Sea Island, and he's played well here also, again, probably not a guy who can win, but a very sneaky top 10, top 20 guy who can really fill it up. So yeah, I think he's my favorite in terms of these guys for a top 20 or for DraftKings.
Okay. So the guy that at is the first guy that is 270 to one that I think is, I think he's the most mispriced player on the board is when I say mispriced, we're talking about a difference between a guy is 270 to one, I think should be a hundred to one. I already know where you're going with this. Do you want to guess?
Well, I don't play this guy, but everybody has been riding the Hudson Swofford bandwagon for a while. So I assume that's where you're going. Yeah, that's where I'm going, but I'm not one of those guys. Like I wasn't. People have been playing him for like a month. Yeah, I wasn't one of those guys. I'm not. I think the shines wore off him a little bit because he had that, the playoff thing. Yeah. Everyone was going crazy for him in the playoffs and everything.
then he's been kind of, he's been fine since then. But so the reason I actually like him, he's really accurate off the tee and he pounds a ton of greens. I think ball striking wise, like pedigree, ball striking pedigree and chops. I think he is better than a lot of people that you will find. And the thing that I like about him also is he gained 5.4 at the CJ cup in a really good field. And he's,
I think that Corrales, he's one on past Palm, also finished sixth there last year. And he's got three top tens at the Sony Open as well. So I like Swofford a lot. I think you're probably right. I probably underrated how sneaky of a play he is.
Yeah, I think the shine has worn off a little bit, but I still think he'll be owned a little bit. He's played here a handful of times. No top 40s, but he's made five of six cuts, it looks like. I'm hoping that is what, yeah. Yeah, there's a couple other guys. And again, you have to look at, when guys are this bad, I look at a very...
short sample size, kind of what they did last week or a couple of weeks ago and how they've done here or on courses that I like. I think you have to look at Brian Gay again. After last week, he got there late. He defended his title, finished 12th, skewed a little bit because he hold out for Eagle on the very last hole.
but 12th nonetheless, and obviously has played very well here historically, and he fits what we're looking for. I don't know if he's won Sony. I feel like he has. And the other guy who I like quite a bit, win player, hit a top 15 last week, is Tyler Duncan. Again, what's the upside? I don't know, but if you're looking for a top 40 for a guy who's 6,400, I think Tyler Duncan is one of my guys this week.
I like Duncan too. I was just pulling, by the way, Gay hasn't won the Sony, but he's been really good there. So yeah, now that we're kind of in this territory, I just look at the Kyle Stanley numbers every week. Me too. I'll let you do it. Yeah. So I just refuse. There's got to be like a dumb luck week where the pots fall. And
It's crazy because he's hit, like we talk about, um, we talk about the gap that Morikawa has created as the best iron player in the world. The gap that Stanley has created as the worst putter is actually like almost more impressive to me. Yeah. It's, it's historically bad and it's unfortunate because the ball striking is historically good. I mean, there's weeks where he was gaining 10 strokes, nine strokes. Missing the guy. Yeah.
No, it's incredible. I'm a sucker for Kyle Stanley, so I will probably play some. But yeah. So on the opposite end of the spectrum, down in this range, how is this not a perfect setup for Denny McCarthy? Well, that... Three or four cuts here. He was okay last week. He's played pretty well to start the year, but just seems like...
of course, where Denny's going to be there. Well, I think the thing with Denny, the reason why he didn't jump out to me initially, and I think this is like the major question that you kind of have to grapple with all week. And kind of, if you think about it from like a game theory perspective, maybe you want to fade the narrative, but I think it's the past pollen thing where it's like, is Denny's greatest advantage really going to be on a past pollen course with super slow greens?
That could be wrong. I don't think I've ever played... I play a lot of golf. I don't know if I've played past palm before. I can't... That's more of a theory and some stuff I've read. It's a little bit slower. It's pretty much like Bermuda. It's slow. It's grainy. It's flat. There's a lot of wind. I think guys who putt well on the Bermuda greens in the Southeast, I think they're fine on past palm as well. Yeah. And I mean, I think if you think about...
If you think about slow greens, it's like bad putters. And even the guys who have won here kind of reflects this too. It's either really bad putters or really good putters. And Denny obviously fits that mold. Yeah, no, for sure. I agree with that. But yeah, he's going to pop one of these weeks, so I'll probably keep riding in. And it's a pretty cheap price tag here.
I don't know if there's any, I think Stanley is yeah. Stanley's probably the guy I'm going to use the most down here. Anyone else before we kind of go over? I mean, for guys who are playing draft Kings, I think there's, I mean, there's a lot of ways you can go. Like we play a lot of steps, Straka in the mid sevens and now he's 6,100. Uh, Mullinax is down here. He's made a couple of cuts played well on the corn fairy tour finals. Like, uh,
I mean, if you're a guy making 150 lineups, there are certainly guys down here. If you want to do a stack of like Hovland plus JT, because it's viable this week.
Yeah, you know what? I played golf today, so I don't really look at the pricing until I'm really actually looking at it now. There's a lot of guys I like down here. I was super high on Camillo last week. I don't think that he was fine. He finished 30th, I think, for all the reasons that I liked Camillo last week. I think you can like him this week. Webby Oda...
has like he's missed like five cuts in a row but for some reason is still statistically does that still say he's like awesome which I don't I don't really understand and then yeah I mean I get yeah those I mean you get like you can make a case for some of these other guys but it's it's certainly doable and I don't like to give away lineups but you should enter one uh for us you know you plug in Stanley and Swofford right uh you plug in JT and Hovland and
And then you have enough for Woodland and Power. Like, why not? Like, that's a team. And I think that's how my builds are going to go this week. I mean, every team I make is going to have a couple guys over 9,500. Yeah. Most of them are going to start with JT. Yeah, both of us are playing JT. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, I think. Go ahead. Yeah, and then you just take your pick of the guys down low. Like, I might do Kirk and Straka or something. You can do Swofford and Stanley. There's a lot of ways you can go.
Yeah, it's funny. I think anytime I do one of those with Mayo, where it's like, let's make a lineup together, they just completely fall flat on their face. Yeah, well, it's hard. I mean, you just have to make a decision in terms of contest selection, like what you're doing with Chalk. I think this week, I mean, one, the obvious is, what do you do with JT, right? If you're going to play JT, I don't think he's going to be overly popular, like maybe 8% or 16%, something like that.
but then there's that chalk, you know, you look at guys like Mito and Neiman and Varner, like you just gotta, yeah, you just gotta navigate that area. Well, the, the thing with, with JT, like regarding DraftKings too, is I think people like to play the guys that they bet. And I don't think anyone's going to bet JT. And I think the one exception to that rule is Xander. Um,
because Xander is so consistent. So even if people don't want to bet Xander at his odds, they'll still play Xander, but JT can get a little shaky sometimes. So I agree. I'm with you. I agree. A hundred percent. I'm glad Xander's not here. I can't get that guy. Right. But I just, I mean, by default, I just don't play. I'm like, he's not a guy I bet. Uh, he's not a guy that I can play for 10, six or 11 K, whatever he is nowadays. Cause like you said, he's just not going to win very often. Yeah.
I've made some bad bets in my life. I think betting him at 7-1 to win the Zozo, I can't think of a worse bet I've made in the last calendar year. I bet the Lions this week. That was very bad. They lost by 40 or something. I can't bet on football. It's impossible.
I took the Chiefs minus 10 and they're up by four on the Giants right now. So anyway, that dates us a little bit. It's Monday night. Anyone else that we haven't touched on? We'll do a quick recap at the end, kind of given our guys, but anyone else you wanted to touch on that we haven't? Anyone else you think we shortchanged?
No, I mean, I do think, you know, in those ranges that we mentioned, there are some good pivots, right? Like if you think like Henley and Mito and Neiman are going to be chalk, like he can play beside dude. He's, he's totally fine. Yeah. We mentioned Scotty Scheffler up top. I think he's going to be a great pivot.
Let me just look through here. I think Zalatoris is going to be very low owned for like the first time ever. Yeah. I think people are just stale of him right now. He's still playing fine. So I think that'd be a good GPP option as well.
Yeah. And I think with Zalatoris, I think a lot of people think of him on longer courses because he's, he's a really good long arm player wedges. He's, he's not as good. So I agree with you on, on Zalatoris. I think, yeah, it's, it's, it's a now too. Like he, he was fine. He was fine last week. And, and obviously it's a, it's a much different feel, but I think those guys like Bazaid and how to, and,
I don't know if I can get there with Rose, but I don't think anyone's going to go there. What about Lucas Herbert? We didn't even mention him. Yeah, I was talking to my buddy Luke today, and he was like, I'm going right. Why is Herbert 75-1 in this field? I'm going right back to Herbert. He won some tournament in the European Tour, and then I think the next week he contended and finished third or fourth.
Yeah. And again, perfect course for him. He plays really well on the wind, obviously been in good form. He's very inconsistent. So you just never know, but obviously has winning upside. So yeah.
All right. Well, I think that covers it. On my end, I'll run through the guys that I am leaning towards. I've literally only made one bet. It's Gary Woodland at 66 to 1. But I think this is what I'm going to do. I think you've successfully talked me out of the Brooks ledge. I think what I'm going to do is I think I'm either going to bet JT
and then go like Woodland and Mido and like Domin or Norlander and call it a day or, uh,
I'm going to pass on JT and do like this giant hodgepodge of like 60 guys of like Neiman and Mito and Henley and Woodland and Varner. Yep. And, and just bet all of those guys. So I'm all for first round leaders and top 20 is in top tens. And yeah. Yeah. So I think, I think that's for me. What about you?
So as we were sitting here, I did bet Joel Damon. So yeah, Joel Damon for me, Mito for me, and then probably going to bet JT and Reed. At least one of them, probably both.
Ryan Baroff, everyone. Do you have anything to do anything to plug right now? No, Matt doesn't want to record. We'll be back. Always on Twitter. DMS are open, excited to have a short offseason, whatever we have. But yeah, it should be a great week and looking forward to getting back to the majors in the spring. That's when golf is actually fun.
Thank you so much, my friend, for joining me. When you talk to Wiley, let him know if he's ever looking for a partner in a long-winded conversation about the state of golf content and the oversaturation of DFS content in the industry. Tell him my DMs are open, but this was very fun, man. I look forward to doing it again sometime soon, my friend. Yeah, sounds good, Andy. Thanks, buddy.
All right, that is it for the show. Special thanks one more time to Ryan Baroff, and we'll be back next week breaking down the Houston Open. Cheers.
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