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John Deere Classic Picks & the Importance of Accurate Data with Ryan Noonan

2024/7/2
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Inside Golf Podcast

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Andy Lack introduces the episode discussing the John Deere Classic with Ryan Noonan, focusing on the importance of accurate golf data and betting strategies.

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This episode of Inside Golf Podcast is brought to you by The Rabbit Hole on BetsBurstGolf.com. This is where I make my models. This is where I go to aggregate and accumulate all my data. It's a very helpful resource if you are serious about betting and playing DFS golf. It has been for me at least. I credit it.

As a crucial piece in any of the success that I have been able to have. So if you want full access to the model that I make, if you want to make your own models, Betzbertsgolf.com is where you want to go. I am bringing on my colleague over at Betzberts and Ryan Noonan to talk

discuss some of the more recent updates we have over at the rabbit hole, what we've been up to over there, the importance of accurate data, why we are so passionate about providing accurate data at industry low pricing, and why it is so crucial to not get

bogged down looking at inaccurate data so we will get to a lot more rabbit hole stuff in the podcast but mainly ryan and i will be breaking down the entire betting board for the john deere classic listen i know most of us are on vacation outside with the kids playing golf i've certainly been

Been doing my fair share of golf travel recently, but let's take advantage of this week. We were close last week at the Rocket Mortgage. I still think there's a big time edge to be found from a data perspective in weeks like this. And always a blast getting to chat with Ryan about why that is. So without further ado, let's bring on Ryan.

All right. Ryan Noonan is joining me here. My colleague over at Betts Burts Golf. How we doing, my friend? Thanks for joining me this morning.

Well, Andy, I appreciate it coming on. Obviously a big fan of all that you do. I think you are one of the sharpest minds in the space. Love talking shop with you and yeah, excited to be here. I mean, like John Deere doesn't get everyone super fired up, but like opportunities to be had anytime we have a golf tournament and anytime people maybe are not dialed in as much because they think it's, hey, it's the John Deere. So there's edges to be had by doing the work.

Well, I appreciate that. I agree. I definitely believe that some of these weaker field golf tournaments, one of the weeks when a lot of folks are not really paying attention, going outside, playing some golf, going on vacation, you definitely get some laziness in terms of everybody congregating around the same plays, a little bit less content, a little bit lazier content. You see ownership decline.

kind of just, again, congregate around the same guys, which leaves some opportunities to take some chances on some less heralded players, particularly on a golf tournament that is so much based on putting variance, which is what we have here at the John Deere. We'll dive in there in a second. I want to talk to you a little bit at the top about the rabbit hole and the work that we're doing there. What has it been like

being one of the men behind the scenes, launching a new golf data, uh, program in, in 2024. I know that, uh, I I've had a little bit of a peek inside the curtain working with you guys a bunch, but, um, how things been going in, in, in year one for, for you guys? Um,

Yeah, man, it definitely doesn't feel it's probably year one to the folks on the outside because I feel like now really we really do have a, you know, like a front facing product that we feel really good about. This goes back like almost three and a half years now when I started.

You know, with other stuff that I do in the content space on the football side with four for four, we I came on there full time. And I really part of my deal and negotiations with them was like, hey, we need to branch out. We need to do more sports. I love sports.

Doing golf content. I think there are other opportunities. The schedule fits so well against the NFL schedule. So let's do some stuff. So that's actually when I came on, launched golf there, just doing content, right? No data or anything like that. And saw this, there's this new guy popped up on Twitter, just sharing these awesome data for free all the time that felt like,

I don't know if this guy understands what he's putting out there. I don't know how he should be monetizing the work that he's doing. Our guy, PJSplits101, reached out to Ron and we were doing content together over at 444 and then

Look, data is king. Data is king in the football space, in the betting space. And I don't think there's anything better in terms of data out there than golf data. And we all know the players in the space in terms of where we would go for data in other areas in a handful of years ago. And it was like, hey, how can we improve what's out there? How can we make it

more user-friendly because I think the term modeling is intimidating to some. How can we make this PGA tour data more accessible to people where they can actually manipulate it into timeframes and filters that actually make sense because we're trying to really tell a story through the data, right? When we're trying to build DFS player pools, we're trying to build betting cards.

And data, that's correct, by the way, not to interject, but I just wanted to add, because I mean, like, we are not the first website that has had the idea of like data aggregation. I think what separates the rabbit hole, why it was the data site that I chose to work with is because

You and Ron and myself and all of the folks over at BetSports actually take the time to make sure the filters are correct, right? So when you want to look at a bet, POA putting, you're not getting led down some, you know,

for lack of a better term, incorrect rabbit hole on like looking at golf courses like Torrey Pines, which have these splotchy hoa greens, West Coast poa greens that really don't play anything like the greens that you'll see at Detroit Golf Club, for example. And then suddenly you're inputting data that isn't really applicable whatsoever to

in your models. And I I've seen that across the industry for a very long time. It frustrates me. I think it's doing gamblers and DFS players, a major disservice and actually leading them down the completely wrong path where they're valuing stuff that they shouldn't actually be valuing at all. And I think like that was the main thing that initially attracted me to the rabbit hole is like, okay, not,

Just do we care about being user-friendly? We care about quality. We care about leading you down the exact right path.

It's funny you even bring it up because you wouldn't even think that it's something that we would have to discuss, right? The accuracy of the data, the actual validity of what you're trying to tell through the data. Yeah, obviously. I mean, we have to have it be accurate. And some of that, Andy, is bucketing things by hand, right? Doing things a little bit more automated until we can automate things. We have to do some of it by hand because part of it was creating filters that don't exist. We're creating filters that...

come from things that we know from the PGA Tour data versus just taking what we get from the PGA Tour. So that is definitely a huge, huge part of it because, yeah, I think that there are edges to be had by understanding the architect, all those things. Like if someone listens to your podcast, I think that they have

a different appreciation from golf as a whole, right? We're trying to like see it through the lens of betting and DFS. But I think your audience in particular, which is why it made so much sense to partner with you is that I think you have a,

smarter audience. I think they are obviously looking at golf through a lens that's maybe a little bit different than some of the other content that's out there and stuff too. So yeah, we just, we want it to be better. We want it to be easier. We want it to continue to give users ways to use data in a way that can help them

continue to get an edge because that's really why we're here right we all love the game for the mole i think a lot of us love the game love to play it love to watch it but we're investing this time in terms of you know building dfs lineups and betting cards we want to win right so we want to be able to provide users with an edge that can get them in a better spot than their peers when they get out there in the space come thursday morning yeah and i think like just to expand a

upon the point of the accuracy and the competent, the competent Ness and like the hardworking nature of what we're trying to do and particularly Ron, like a good example of this was, you know, something like the masters, for example, where

that data is not released to the PGA tour. The masters is a separate entity from the PGA tour. So like you can calculate strokes gained for the masters data golf does it, but the PGA tour is not going to do that. So a lot of the websites that work primarily with the PGA tour, they're just not going to have masters data in there. Um,

And I'm sorry if you're building your models without data from probably the biggest tournament of the PGA Tour season in terms of like,

What happens that week really matters. It's really important when it comes to live players. It's really important when it comes to predicting out future majors, because we don't have that much data or sample size already on these live players at all. So what they do in these major championships really matters.

I told Ron like, hey, in this model, we need to have master's data. We need to hand put it even if that's what it takes. But we need to have this master's data.

Within 24 hours, Ron had not just uploaded by hand all of the master's data from 2024. He had uploaded all of the master's data from like the past five years. And like a great example of that is, okay, you roll into Pinehurst, right? And Pinehurst is a really...

nuanced and singular golf course in terms of the shots that you're going to have to play around the green. Like you're chipping off of short grass a lot. You're chipping off of these tight lies to these heavily undulated greens, the around the green performance, uh, the shots that you're going to need to hit at Pinehurst around the green.

you're not going to find them anywhere else like on the PGA tour. Like a lot of that regular strokes ground gained around the green data on the PGA tour just isn't going to be applicable for pioneers. And so like some of the chipping off short grass stuff that, that you see at the masters, like just off the top of my head, a guy that like surprisingly popped in that area at the masters was Bryson and,

Having that in there is like a massive difference maker. Like I, I honestly don't know how I I've said this before a couple of times as a joke, but like,

Data is like a hostage situation, right? Like you could basically formulate it in any way that you want to fit the narrative that you have, right? And if you don't, if you aren't painting the most accurate picture of every single thing that happens in a PGA tour season, including the majors, including the golf tournaments, like, you know, Myrtle Beach, a lot of other data sites just ignored Myrtle Beach acting like that didn't happen.

Some of the data that I got on Davis Thompson when he finished T2 at Myrtle Beach, that was very helpful for me last week. These things matter, and I think it's really important that we start looking at the entire picture to paint the most full picture. I think you're not really building an accurate model if you're not looking at that type of stuff. Yeah.

Thousand percent. And I think some of that is, you know, we wanted to have access to stats that aren't readily available in the space. They'd be able to filter and put conditions on those as well.

Yeah, I bang the drum on every show. It's probably annoying for anyone that listens to our content regularly about, especially when we get into some spots. Maybe it comes up a little bit this week. We have wide fairways this week. But I think that driving accuracy is an important stat from what you're actually trying to tell through the lens of driving accuracy. But the actual stat, driving accuracy, I think is...

It's a binary yes, no stat, right? It's just telling you yes, no. It's not telling you what you're actually trying to capture by talking about accurate drivers off the tee. And that I think is much better told through the lens of distance from the edge of the fairway. That's telling you basically when you miss the fairway, are you spraying it or were you just off? We ran into this in Houston, I think was, I think one of the more prominent ones for me, when you looked at driving accuracy heading into that event,

Scotty Scheffler, I believe was like 56th in the fields in driving accuracy. He was first by margin in distance from the edge of the fairway. That's actually telling me what I'm trying to capture. I'm trying to find out, all right, are you, do you have control of your golf ball off the tee? Um,

Obviously I want to know, are you hitting fairways? But what I'm trying to get an understanding of is, are you going to keep yourself in position? Right. Cause distance from the edge of the fairway might capture the first cut, depending on where we're at like that. It's not problematic. You can't spin it and control it as much. Scotty may be able to in some scenarios, but that's what we're trying to be able to provide through this lens. Right. As you mentioned, you know, rough penalty or miss fairway penalty, like that stuff super matters. It's not,

cookie cutter across every course and be able to have an understanding and tracking that stuff by hand to be able to enter it, to make sure that we're having and telling the right story, I think really, really matters for what we're trying to do here through the data. So

That's just one example. We put a ton of conditions, like anything that we could possibly matter. I love off the tee club selection. That matters a ton, right? You have some spots where you can grip it and rip it. Club head covers coming off every single time. Or we don't know. You know what? This is a different scenario. So what I'm trying to tell you

a story from off the tee with less than drivers. I want to know what ball striking looks like in that scenario, right? I'm trying to tell the story of two shots. I want to have an understanding of when someone has to lay back a little bit. Ideally in that scenario, they're probably playing from the fairway, right? If they're taking less than driver and playing their second shot from the rough, that probably is frustrating for them. But I'm actually trying to get a story of what's going on with the second shot, right? Cause they're also laying up for a reason. They want to be able to put themselves in,

in position maybe with a driver wouldn't be able to do. So I think thinking more holistically about what we're trying to do through the data matters too. And I think that's why not just having this data set without content. I think that's why listening to your show, reading the stuff that you put out there. I think hopefully what we're doing through content as well helps people understand how to use the data to tell a better story. Right. And I think it is, I think it's actually most important

Not just on, well, I think majors, it matters a tremendous amount because we just have access to better major data and more context and nuance there. But just to transition us into the John Deere, like a lot of these weaker field events where some of the players at the bottom, like once you get past 50 to one in this field, I mean, they

They're just, you know, in basically like over a hundred players that a lot of average weekly DFS players don't have a lot of information and data on. So being able to differentiate those guys and being able to identify, okay, here are the players that specifically make the most sense on this golf course based on the advanced filters that we have. Like this happens every single week and in the rabbit hole where all

I'll create a model and there will be a player in the six or seven K range that, uh,

I identify as like, oh, if you actually filter out for like these types of golf courses with a higher Miss fairway with a lower Miss fairway, huh? Like that's interesting. Like this golfer, this golfer is doing some things on this type of golf course that we've seen in the past. Right. And so I think on the weaker field events, uh,

Um, it, it almost matters more. You almost have more of an edge there because there's a lot more uncertainty at the bottom of the board. Um, and that's kind of what we have this week at the John Deere. I mean, it,

It's a total hodgepodge, but particularly with the can't lay with the can't lay withdrawal, um, the, the top of the board. I mean, you're seeing players in the $9,000 range that, uh, you know, we typically see in the $6,000 range. So before we dive into the betting board, um,

Any overreaching thoughts on the John Deere Classic on TPC Deere Run? Anything specific you're looking at in your rabbit hole model this week or that you think is interesting about the golf course that you want to briefly mention before we get into the odds?

I would love to know. Yeah. I want to hear a little bit of your thoughts too, in the course, because I do think comparatively, right. It gets bunched up in this like Midwest birdie fest. Yeah. Right. Right. Cause it is, we've got here, I believe last 14 years, we've got to at least 18 under the last couple of winters have been 21. So like, I'm not going to paint it in another way. Like that's, it is what we have. I do think there's just more nuance to the course than say Detroit or, you know, TBC or like, you know, go up to Minnesota, like, yeah,

this place at least have some we have some elevation changes we have a little bit we have dog legs we have a little bit more nuance to the course again wide fairways so if you are you're able to still keep yourself in play you're going to score but again same thing we have a little bit of nuance with like mixed in some shave runoffs we just don't have thick aprons around and i appreciate that i know you do as well like i want to have a mix of shots i want to have

these guys, even at the top tier, it's relative. Obviously these are, they're still professional golfers, right? So they're all still very, very good at the game. I want to have them have to think about a club selection and what they want to do here. I think that there's some nuance to the course. That's a little bit interesting. It's only a little more than three hours away from me. It's a public track. We would get out there at some point. I'm on the other side of the state. I'm, you know, close by Chicago. I'm flying to Chicago tomorrow.

Nice. All right. We'll talk after. Yeah. Yeah. It's just, you know, I don't know. It's obviously going to be, and it's got a tough spot in the schedule now too, right? It used to be the lead into the open. Now you have the Scottish in there that makes a ton of sense for folks. So I think that's impacted the field. But yeah, I mean, as you mentioned, when we're getting a spot where the top of the board is with a handful of guys, sub 30, and we're just so it's, you have to kind of divorce yourself of,

preconceived notions of where that guy is typically on the betting board or DFS slips. It's harder for me. I've had a hard time reconciling some of the prices this week. So I went down the board in terms of the betting card, but I do think that there are some edges to be had. And I think you made a great point. I ran my model this week and there were definitely a couple of names where I was not expecting to have them in the top five, top 10. And that's

name the rabbit hole. It makes you lead and do a little bit more research on, okay, well, what happened here? Why is, what inputs led me to have this guy in my top 10 and that I would have necessarily not, we would just easy scroll past, you know, in any other scenario. So yeah, I would love to love to get into that. Yeah.

Yeah. Uh, it's always a little jarring when you have guys like Nate Lashley and, uh, Justin Lauer in the top 10 of your model, but, uh, that's, that's, that's what the tournament calls for this week. That's just going to happen sometimes. Um, just to expand upon your point on the golf course, um, I'll share some brief thoughts cause I didn't, I was traveling this weekend, so I didn't get to do a full Sunday course breakdown pod. And, and I don't even know if I would have been able to

to do an hour on the John Deere. But with that being said, I do agree. I think there is a little bit more intrigue and nuance than Detroit Golf Club, for example. I think what separates Detroit

John Deere, TBC Deere Run, and Detroit Golf Club, in my opinion, is that there's a bit more of a missed fairway penalty on this golf course. The fairways are still fairly wide and easy to hit, but there's a real benefit.

from playing from the fairway here. Not necessarily because you can't play out of the rough, like the golf course is short enough where you're still going to have a lot of wedges out of the rough if you're missing fairways. But if you look at the last 10 champions here, a lot of them have been really, really accurate drivers of the

right and i do think that there is a huge advantage from being able to consistently play from the fairway and and around the margins too like around the green as well it's it's a tricky difficult golf course around the green now i i still wouldn't weigh around the green play too heavily because it's such it features such a high greens and regulation percentage that you know if you're

missing greens, you're most likely not going to be in contention to win this golf tournament, but there's going to be a couple high leverage short game shots that you're going to need to execute.

at any point in your round this week at, at, at TPC deer run. So I do think that, you know, depending on when, depending on softness, um, historically, this is played like just a little bit tougher than a golf course, like, like Detroit golf club. Um,

just because again you have a couple longer par fours as well and one less par five have you guys been getting a lot of a lot of rain in the area where you guys are because that's always a big differentiating factor at a tournament like the john deere and and the rocket mortgage to like these midwest summer golf courses like rain and wind are so crucial this week you saw that

Even Detroit on Sunday, you got a little bit of some wind in the mix. You had some of those par fives playing back into the wind. It's a completely different golf course. It played two strokes harder on Sunday than it did on Saturday just because a little bit of wind. So one of the things I'm going to be looking at like vastly this week are turf conditions and wind. Have you guys been getting a ton of rain in the area?

Yeah, not a ton, a little bit, but I think we might get some here in the next 24. So yeah, that could impact a little bit. Because yeah, that's what happened in Detroit last week too, right? They got that early Wednesday, I think they got a bunch of rain and yeah, it's just, it makes that spot so soft.

Uh, so yeah, I don't think it's going to play. I don't think we have much coming up like in tournaments. So it depends on what happens. And I think it's nothing like massive this week too. So probably plays a little bit firmer, a little bit tougher than, uh, than what we saw early in the week in Detroit for sure. Yeah. I'm not seeing anything crazy weather wise in terms of like week of rain or, or in, in tournament rain, maybe a little bit before the tournament starts in the next week.

48 hours, but then once the tournament gets going, it

Looks like we should be delay free, which is always a benefit because you can get some thunderstorms in this part of the country this time of year, as I'm sure you know. Okay, let's dive into the odds board. So I'm going to break this up kind of by tier. And let's talk about the guys. There's six of them. And some of these names are pretty jarring at their current numbers. But the six guys under 25 to one are Sanjay, Sepp Straka, Aaron Rye,

Jordan Spieth, Denny McCarthy, Davis Thompson. Do any of those six names at under 25 to one have your attention this week?

I mean, I like some of the fits. I understand why they are where they are on the odds board. But I have a harder time trying to really make up from down on the gap from really the rest of the board. And that's really kind of what it comes down to in terms of betting for me. I think Davis Thompson makes a ton of sense. There's, I don't know, it's almost like there's a little bit, a couple of things that are a little different.

jarring for me in terms of where he is and like driving accuracy and distance from the edge of the fairway. Bent grass putting splits are not really for my liking either, but kind of the rest of the game, if you're looking at anything form wise over the last,

six months, three months, he's going to be popping pretty well. So it depends on how much you would weigh those stats comparatively. So look, finishing the top 10, three of the past six starts. He's probably in contention again, just considering his current form. Probably a T20 bet would be more of interest to me than having to pay the freight for him to win. But he's probably my favorite of that bunch. I think Sanjay is very interesting. He's obviously playing good golf, put together some top 10s recently after kind of a wayward stretch

early in the season at Florida stretch where we typically see him play well. Uh, he really didn't do much of anything. So he's playing better. Again, 14, like kudos to anyone, I guess that was interested early Monday morning and maybe grabbed a 20 or 22, uh, 14, uh,

No chance for me. Again, finishing position, viable DFS play for sure, but not enough of these guys up here close and win golf tournaments, and it's hard to do. Look at Aaron Rye. I mean, Aaron Rye, if we didn't have what he did at Detroit, and again, he was in contention.

all four rounds we expected like aaron rata go out on thursday play well right he's the king of uh of round one but he didn't fade until the back nine on sunday he found himself in a position where he just doesn't find himself a lot right and then all of a sudden just kind of losing it out to the left a handful of times off the team which is not what he does but

Again, this is something that we're not going to find in the mall. Winning golf tournaments is very difficult. So he's a great course fit, but man, to pay 20, sub 20 for Aaron Ryan to win a golf tournament is something I can't do.

Yeah, I was on both Aaron Rye and Davis Thompson last week, fairly happy. And I was very grateful to be on the golf course on Sunday when it seems like Davis Thompson, it seems like never really had a massive chance to win the golf tournament, kind of made a run on Sunday, whereas Rye was in prime position and kind of did what Rye does. I think if I'm choosing between going back to the two,

But two, I would agree with you in terms of Davis Thompson checks a couple more. I mean, not that Rye does it. Rye is such an accurate driver of the ball, and he's actually starting to putt a lot better, particularly on these screens. He's never played...

TPC deer run before that's not the biggest deal in the world. This golf course, you know, it has a lot of players that play well here year after year in terms of like your Zach Johnson's and your Steve Strickers. I would not get overly influenced by a couple of guys like that. Always raising their baseline here. This is not a golf course with like tremendously sticky course history. I mean, we see players come here on their debut performance and contend all

all the time two years ago bazayden out and griot like their first time ever they both finished runner-up ludwig finished top five and his first appearance here we see guys contend and win here all the time but i still think like thompson is probably the more complete player overall the better player that i trust a little bit more down the stretch so for me i mean i i

Probably my favorite at the top would be Thompson, although I'm with you. I don't see myself going there at 25 to 1. I'm a lot lower on Denny always than consensus. I don't see it with him as much as other folks do. I certainly understand it in terms of

the ability that he has with his putter. Uh, but I I'm just not as high as him this week as, as others are particular at this number. And then what do we do with Jordan Spieth, man? I mean, I, I, I just, I, I I'm kind of at a loss for, for what's going on with that guy right now.

Yeah, I mean, I was stunned when I ran my model. And again, we have obviously a very weak field. And I'm not saying my model is a perfect indication of how these players should be on the odds board or really anything like that. But he is 57th.

in my model this week in this field. And there's, you know, again, if you're building models on, on Betts versus golf through the rabbit hole, he's, there's just a lot of red on the card, you know, in the stat bucket. So like, just, there's nothing that I would go, Hey, this is other than just name, right? Pedigree that would make you think,

uh, the Jordan Spieth should be in contention this week. He's top 10 and just raw birdie or better percentage over the last, uh, six months. That's it. And he's 10th. Like that's the only thing that I have. He's even somewhat in the mix in terms of this model. Right. And again, played here once 2015 peak early Jordan and one and never came back, which again makes a ton of sense. So, um, yeah, it's, it's, it's wild. It just, there's been, um,

nothing this year consistent like the he's just been a bad approach player we know that that's going to be really hard to compete um depending i have rolling approach in my model this week and he's

In some of the longer-term stuff or short-term stuff, he's like 78th and 84th. Just real poor play. So just no interest there. I'll let some other folks chase it. I imagine some people will because when you look just in terms of his name on the board compared to some other guys, like in what world should Denny be shorter than Jordan Spieth? I understand why some people would come to that conclusion. The golf just hasn't been there for Spieth though. So it's kind of an easy fade. Easy fade in DFS and definitely not a name I'm running to on the odds board too.

Yeah, and I mean, he's won here before. He had that victory here in 2013, won again here, and I think it was either 2015 or 2017. But he's got the good vibes based on the fact that he broke onto the scene here as a teenager and won here at 19 years old in 2013. It was his first PGA Tour victory. With that being said, he's just not that player right now. I actually...

I was really interested in terms of what I saw him do at the US Open kind of sucked me back in for one more week at the Travelers, where he had a very oddly, which now looking back on it makes even less sense in the context of what he ended up doing at the Travelers. But he had a very randomly great approach performance at Pinehurst. And I said to myself, like,

okay, Spieth is Spieth's on the upswing. He's coming back now. Now he's returning to an easier golf course in TPC River Highlands that he's won at in the past. Like it's go time. And then,

It was definitively not good. Like it was, it was so bad. Like the driver even fell off a cliff for him too. He went right back to losing strokes on approach and the driver, which has been the most consistent club in his back, surprisingly all season, like completely fell off a cliff as well at,

the John Deere. So listen, I understand it maybe from an ownership standpoint, if you're playing 150 lineups and you just say based on talent alone, this is a guy that is completely under-owned. I get that argument, but he's kind of reaching his expiration date on how much more we could tout the on talent alone argument as it pertains to Spieth. Let's move a little bit farther down.

This range between 30 and 50. I'm not going to list all of these guys, but once we get past like the favorites, any interest in kind of this Heath Mitchell, Matt McNeely posted Nick Dunlop, Luke Clanton, Svensson, Bo Hossler, Eric Cole, kind of that, that mid range tier here.

Yeah, you know, I have let me down last week was one of my favorite plays as well. Yes, that was that was painful. So I feel like maybe some like flop lag on Mav. I didn't fire at this, you know, outright number. Maybe I'll get some exposure through DFS to kind of make sure I'm covering my bases there.

JT Poston, when you run, obviously he won here a couple years ago. When you run any sort of modeling that's going to capture how guys perform when scoring conditions are easier, that's where you're going to get JT Poston. Actually, he ranks tops in the field in strokes gained total in easy and very easy scoring conditions over the last couple years. So this is a spot where

I think I understand why he won here. Obviously, we know the putter can get white hot. That outright number has held a little bit too, which is interesting. I thought that it would get shorter. Some of the other guys around him did, but the post in 35 is still out there. It's actually, I think, again, value is a really strange term in terms of outright betting in golf, right? Because we know that hold on this market is insane. So it's not actually a value play.

But just compared to the fields, compared to, I think, what his baseline skill set is, I think where some of the other guys have moved with the Cantley news, Poston's still holding out there around 33, 35 in some spots, I think would be a play if I was just kind of getting into it now and I wanted some sort of top-ish of the board play. I think Poston makes a ton of sense there. Yeah, I agree with that as well. Poston's completely on my radar too. He's just...

He's one of those guys where if you get a bunch of wedges and a bunch of emphasis on putting, particularly inside 15 feet, particularly on bank grass screens, not just has he won the John Deere before he's also played well at a lot of these similar golf courses, be it TPC river Highlands, Detroit golf club, TPC, uh, twin cities post and always seems to raise his baseline on these types of golf courses. I agree with you on McNeely as well. I think it, uh,

I think it would be foolish if you are as high on McNeely as you and I were last week to just completely give up on him because he finished second.

you know, T45. I mean, for all of the reasons that we would like McNeely at Detroit Golf Club, a lot of those reasons are highly applicable as well at TPC Deer Run. I worry a touch more maybe about his driving accuracy this week, but he has been... I mean, it's just...

He has kind of these spikes in certain categories, but the reason why we're not talking about McNeely as a proverbial winner is because he really struggles to line it up all in the same week. But I'm kind of with you. I'm not ready to...

entirely give up on all of the reasons why I thought that he had a great chance to win the rocket mortgage. I just don't know if I'll get there again at the outright number of 30 to one. If I wanted to go back to the McNeely well for an outright, I would have hoped for a little bit of a drop in the odds into the 3540 zone. The guy that I'll mention kind of once we get past this group just a little bit, um,

Two guys, actually. I bet one at 80-1 and one at 70-1. The 80-1 number on Power crashed on Monday morning. That was just too high. I mean, for many of the reasons that you just talked about with JT Post in terms of the easy scoring conditions, I'm looking at that same filter in the rabbit hole. And you look at Power's performance on easier golf courses over the last couple of years. He's a

bona fide top 10 player on the shorter wedge fast back grass. He's played well at the John Deere before. I just think 80 to one is far too high of a number for the type of player that Seamus power is in the course fit that he has. Um,

And then I'm going back to Mark Hubbard, 70 to one, 70 to one on Mark Hubbard. Number one, I was back grass birdie fast. He has that approach upside. We've seen golf tournaments where Hubbard has gained seven, eight strokes on approach. He's a very above average putter as well. I think not to completely oversimplify things, but like,

That's really the, the, at the most elementary level, the formula that I'm looking for this week. Like, can you get hot with your wedges? Can you get hot inside 15 feet? Seamus power and Mark Hubbard were the, the two glaring names that stood out to me. Once you get past 50 to one.

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Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. For

$45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. Yeah, I like Hubbard quite a bit. I think that's a great call out there too. He's going to keep himself in play off the tee. We know that matters. You have to be able to run hot, as you said. Another great resource and tool as part of the rabbit hole is being able to look at the floor ceiling. You talk about all the time in DFS, like is...

you know, like it was the old Scheffler conversation. It's the old Luke list conversation. Like, Oh look, T to green. He's immaculate. Well, when he has these spike putting weeks, it's really when we can actually, you know, leverage it and he can pop. And it's like, well, what does that actually mean? How frequently does that happen? And what's the range of spike putting? That's something that we wanted to capture there too. So we can go into the rabbit hole, look at the floor ceiling, get an understanding of looking at any of the strokes, game metrics. How often is a player in,

gaining strokes putting how often is he gaining one to five strokes putting right what is the ceiling how frequently does it happen you can use that through any of the filtering um you can do that like how often is someone gaining strokes t to green and these easy scoring condition courses you can look at any of that stuff i think that's particularly from a dfs standpoint a great use of the rabbit hole because you can't add the floor ceiling stuff to your model um it just it's

the math of it is thrown off in a big way. And, you know, we've had some internal discussions on how to do that or capture it, but I feel like it's a great standalone resource as it is, even though you can't model it because it just, it tells us the story for DFS players. Like,

all right, well, what does that have? How does this work? How does this happen? Um, cause we just hear it thrown out there in terms of like spike putting weeks or, uh, just spike weeks in general. This is actually looking at the data behind it, how frequently it happens and to be able to customize it, I think is a huge resource. And yeah, that's a great application for the rabbit hole. I,

I honestly can't believe that we were the first to start looking at that thing. Like this is so essential in, uh, in tournament betting, like live betting, in my opinion, and, and also like the first round leader market, for example, I write about this.

in one of the articles that I do all the time where I particularly, where I very specifically pull from the floor ceiling tool, particularly when I get questions in the discord about like in round matchups. And I know, cause I talked to Ron about this too. And Ron crushes these two, like,

like the, um, the round three and round four matchups where I think a lot of people just look at like, Oh, this guy gained ball stroking and round one and two, like he's going to, you know, any loss with the putter, there's going to be some regression with the putter. He's playing well, like for showdown and DFS, like,

everybody's already doing that, right? Like you're not generating a large edge by just pulling up the data golf screen and seeing who gained on approach and rounds. It's very 2019. Yeah, to make your showdown lineups. Like you have to take it a level further and actually look at the player's percentage chance that he has these spike rounds, which again, I think are incredibly, incredibly important when looking at in tournament betting. Even when you're looking at...

Like after round three, heading into the final round, then you have kind of some dead outrights and you're saying to yourself, okay, who's, who's a guy that's three, four strokes back of the lead that I'm that, you know, I want to put a couple of dollars on just to give myself a sweat on Sunday. Well,

We're the only tool in the industry where you could actually look at like filter out, okay, who are the guys most likely to actually spike in a round four with their putter, with their irons? You can filter it out by course. You can filter it out by conditions. Agreed. Yeah. That's a, I don't want to make the whole pod basically just an infomercial for, for what we're doing at the rabbit hole, but it, but it, it, it actually turns out to be quite applicable to,

particularly in these tournaments when you just absolutely need to get hot with the irons or the, or the putter on this golf course. So the, the final group of players that I wanted to get your take on before we finish up with some long shots. So Luke planted Michael Thorpe, George said, Neil Shipley plans 40 to one Thorpe. George is 80. Neil Shipley's 80.

Thorpe Johnson missed a cut last week. Clanton was awesome. He kind of struggled a little bit in round four, but he had one of the best ball striking performances in the field. And Neil Shipley was awesome too. He gained over five strokes on approach. He hit the ball really well. I struggle with these guys sometimes because like, again, as you and I being so, so data backed, like we don't have as much of a sample size on them from a data perspective, but again,

I think it's hard to deny like what these, the talent level that these guys have. And, and we kind of see it every single year where like, I remember, I think it was last year or two years ago, like got her up was in a similar position and he finished top five at the John Deere classic in a weaker field. Ludwig finished top five at the John Deere classic in a weaker field when we didn't have that much of a sample size on him yet. Um,

How do you rectify like our lack of data on some of these younger guys that are traveling to like a, a very gettable golf course. And in five years from now, we may look back and be like, Oh, these guys were absolutely the best players in the field this week.

Yeah, this is a really hard thing because there's so much more nuance to it. And I think there's just, as you said, we want to have data backing our decisions here because that's really, I think, the most sound way to consistently do this and be profitable. That's why we're trying to do it. But I think you also make a great point is like there's something to be said in terms of the eye test that we have here with these kids and the pedigree coming in. And then, you know, in the case of, you know, Thor Bornstein, obviously, you know,

massive pedigree when you come in is the top, you know, PGA tour, you guy, um, when he's got a taste of actual PGA tour events, excuse me, including this one, or I think he finished, uh, T 17 last year, obviously a couple of nice showings. The last handful of years of the travelers, uh,

I mean, the stretch to where Ludwig is as a player is a really tough comp for any of these guys. But there's a lot of similarities to Thor Branson's game as Ludwig. The driver's a weapon. Yeah. Far...

and straight plays in a lot of spots. He's shown, and again, a small sample that there's some putting upside. He missed the cut on the number last week. The other putter actually, I think, let him down a little bit, but it's just kind of a bet on talent and a bet on pedigree. And one I'm kind of willing to make, it's almost like he's kind of the same point we went on Mav. You know, you're a little bit pot committed if you liked him for last week. And I liked the word we're going to last week in Detroit. I'm back in there's Fandles got a one 10.

This morning on Tuesday morning, I think 80 was fine early in the week. So I'm going back there just again, upside pedigree of where I think we might be in a spot in a couple of years thinking like, man, this guy's not going to John Deere anymore. He's kind of graduated from that and he was in contention the last time he was there. Shipley, the same thing. Like, man, the confidence you have, you play the Masters with Tiger.

Uh, you get that FaceTime with, with tiger and you finished as the low end there, you get to kind of rub elbows with Scotty as he puts on the US open. I mean, low end and masters is pretty impressive stuff. Yeah. I think just that has to have some sort of, you know,

unquantifiable confidence builder for him and i think we see that and again was in contention last week played really well not in contention per se but like was in the mix right t20 putter let him down again but the rest of it tb green was was fairly nice we have a small sample but he he's been fairly accurate off the team he's been putting himself in position that's going to play here this week as well so there's again i was my uh 110 on him uh on early monday morning that was out there i think there's still 80s out there as well just kind of a

interesting bet on talent. I want to throw something out to you too. We're workshopping horsey sauce as his nickname, right? So if you've seen the head cover, he's got the head, he's got the Arby's head cover.

um he loves the curly fries from rbs um ideally he's gonna win this week his first golf tournament on a former arabian horse farm uh he went to osu they play their games in the horseshoe i think there's just something there so if you can put it together this week we're workshopping in the discord of bethbert's golf horsey sauce is his nickname he's an absolute wagon uh of a young man so yeah i'm interested in him too like and again we're having to pay the tax on clinton because he

played so well and was you know on our tvs on sunday uh again just comparatively i don't know that he's the player necessarily or that he's like marginally better than these guys he's probably in their bucket or maybe even a little bit worse in terms of where he's been so far at florida state so yeah give me the guys that are double odds uh that we didn't see on the weekend on tv

I completely agree with you. I think that Thorpe-Jornsson is actually the best bet of the bunch. If you've shiplayed 80, Thorpe-Jornsson at 80, and Clayton at 40, I'm going Thorpe-Jornsson, actually.

10 times out of 10 out of those guys, just because you're actually like relatively speaking, buying him at a low point, you know, at least compared to the others where you're buying really high on Clanton right now, coming off a great performance. Thorpe Johnson actually like oddly models out the best for me compared to Clanton and, and Shipley. I don't know if we have like, it's just that we have a little bit more data on him than, than the two other guys. But yeah,

They're like, he's contended at TPC river Highlands before, which is like maybe my number one comp course this week in terms of the things that I'm looking at, at TPC deer run. And you're, you're getting him coming off a miscut on the number might end up being a better player than both of those guys. I'm going to take the, the buy well on Thorpe, George's and over buying high on, on Clayton or Shipley, any long shots you want to throw out to, to close us out here.

This is, again, another shout out to the model. It pops up. I had to...

Did a double take. Why is Patton Kazire popping in my model? He's 23 for me too. So you're not alone. It's the approach stuff, right? The recent approach stuff has been pretty good. We've seen him have some undoings historically when water gets in the play. He tends to find that. So hopefully that's something that he can avoid here. But yeah, I mean, like just rolling approach model, he's first in

uh he's top five in all three time frames both like looking at last 50 rounds last 24 rounds last 12 rounds uh you roll us together he's tops in there he can make birdies and bunches too which is pretty nice and again you look at it t20 last week he's got t28 or better and five of his past six starts that's an interesting one to me too the uh young japanese kid i'm gonna mess up his last name always uh ryo he said tunze yeah uh

Really nice in my model as well. Again, as any 21-year-old would be, not super consistent, but no real alarming metrics. He's kind of popping in like he's good and okay in pretty much everything. And that's put him in a nice spot in terms of where he is in my model. And we have a handful of T20s. He's been in contention and is right now going to kind of finish in

I think in spots like this where maybe accuracy distances, maybe less than an advantage, this is probably a good spot for him. So T 30 bet for me and definitely someone I'm going to look at in a DFS based off of his price there too. I mean, anytime you get into these positional putter spots, I was shocked. I'm,

bet Brendan Todd last year surprised going into it that he hadn't played really well here in the past and then T2 here last year anytime that you're going to have to put yourself in the fairway and get hot with the putter we know that Todd can do that here so he's down the board again plus 120 to T40 I like quite a bit and then you know a guy that can run some birdies up there in DFS for you so he's definitely interesting too

Yeah. The only other guys that I would throw into the mix here, I haven't, the only bets that I've made, we're recording this a little bit later on Tuesday morning. It's like 10 30 AM or almost 11 AM Eastern time. I was

playing in a golf event all day yesterday. So I didn't get to do that early Monday morning firing that I'm used to doing, which actually is at my detriment this week because I know some folks got some pretty good numbers before the can't lay WD. But a couple of the other guys that are

really popping for me in my model. Nate Lashley, I think he can be... I know he's 7.4 in Daily Fantasy. You can find Lashley all the way up to...

God. Yeah. 110 to one. Even I was hoping for more than that. This field is just so weak. I was hoping for Ashley like one 50, but yeah, Nate Lashley, 110 to one. Justin Lauer is another guy that I was on last week at the rocket mortgage. He played well, finished well.

top 30, he's 125 to one. Like both those players just tend to always pop for me on these types of golf courses because they can get hot with their wedges and they're great putters inside 15 feet. Lauer, you know, Lauer is really one of the best pound for pound putters in this entire field. Um,

But I don't know who else. Yeah, I mean, Kazire, I like as well. You threw his name out there as well. Troy Merritt was very good to us last week, although he really made me sweat over that top 20 at the end. Bridgeman, Silverman, Dylan Will, it starts...

Starts getting pretty sparse down here. So I'll probably keep it at that with Lauer, Lashley, Kazire, and Merritt, Bridgman, Silverman, Wu. I like Kazatsune too as my favorites. But all right. Okay. Who's your winner this week? One name.

Man. Yeah. I only fired at the kids and, uh, uh, and desire at one 50. So I, you know, we'll go with, uh, we're going to go with Thor Brinson getting his, uh, his debut. Yeah. I love that. I'm going with Hubbard. It's it's Hubbard's time. We've been, I've been, we've been on him for a while. He does everything that I'm looking for it at this golf course. Um, he's had a, like a very sneakily consistent season. He, it might be a better, like, uh,

just a top 20 guy in the sense that he is one of my strongest convictions to just play well this week because he has become like quietly one of the most consistent cup makers on the PGA tour. Like even if he's finishing T 50, like this guy always seems to make the cut for you. But I think he spikes, I think he spikes with the irons and, and gets it done. Any closing thoughts, uh, before we get out of here on, uh,

John Deere, Bentgrass Birdie Fest season. How's the golf game? You playing some golf right now? Golf game is trending okay. You buy some nice new handful of clubs, a new putter in the bag, a new Volke in the bag. That helps a ton. New hybrid in the bag in the last six months too. Finding fairways off the tee has been pretty nice. So yeah, playing the Scramble on Thursday.

Uh, got to play nine, uh, again on Saturday, just got, just, you know, getting the game ready for my, uh, my guy's golf trip every year. I was talking to you at the top with the, it's kind of, you know, you're old like me at this point, any of those are only things you get to look forward to. You get to, you know, take your friend's money, uh, once a year and get together. We're one of the, um, uh,

Robert Trent Jones trail in, uh, in Alabama in March, which I'm excited for. Yeah. Yeah, sure. I think we're going to play Capitol Hill courses and we're going to play, uh, grand national links. Those, uh, the four tracks we're playing. So I'm excited for that. We didn't, you know, we've done Hilton head. We did Myrtle. We did Orlando this past year, played a bunch of, uh, courses there. So yeah, I'm excited for the, uh, our first trip to the, uh, the trail.

Sweet. I'm going to Chicago, like I mentioned this weekend, to play some golf. Pretty good weather out there. We've just been getting dusted by the humidity in New York. I was playing golf all weekend in New York. I was upstate a little bit more in the western New York area, Rochester and Troy area, and

That weather is like perfect. I mean, it is 75 and sunny, but in the kind of the Westchester area right outside New York City, it gets up into the 90s with the humidity. Chicago is pretty nice right now, though, right? It's not beating down on you, but you're still in shorts weather and kind of, you know, what, high 70s?

Yeah, I think the high 70s are passing us. I think we're back into the mid 80s. Back into the mid 80s, yeah. A little bit more humid for you, but yeah. Hopefully you enjoy it. I got to get down to Bolingbrook. I want to play the live course that they're going to play here. We got to do some scouting on Bolingbrook. I can just...

Not to save you the trip or anything, but I could probably give you everything you need to know on bowling brick. But it's 65 with a cart. Like I'm blown away. Like I want to get down there just to just to see it, just to see that that where they're going to be. It's why I said you guys have an amazing wealth of golf options in Chicago. I jet. It is one of.

the best golf cities in America, like the greater Chicago area. Once you get out into, into like Wheaton and, and where Butler national is like, you have some of the best golf courses in the country, uh, in the Chicago, in the greater Chicago area. And it is a city that,

that should have a professional golf event every single year, if not a major every single year. Like I've heard wonderful things about the, the OCM renovation that Jeff Ogilvie just completed at Medina. I'm excited for them to go back to Medina in a couple of years. I've heard some rumblings about Gil hands, making some moves on Olympia fields recently. It just boggles my mind that of all the great Chicago land golf courses that

I can't imagine how many had to say no for them to get down to Bolingbroke. I'm a solid two, two and a half minute drive from Medina. My son's out there right now. Sweet. He caddies in Medina. What's he saying? I've heard awesome, awesome things on the OCM renovation. Sweet.

So it opens on the 13th. So it opens in like less than two weeks for members. So it looks beautiful. I drive like dropping them off. I drive very slowly, just pulling into the property every single time because it looks immaculate. So I'm excited. Walking only starting on the 13th. So he doesn't even understand fully what he's going to be able to experience and how I'm going to be trying to tap into him for some 2026 President's Cup stuff because that's the next time we're here. Yeah. Yeah. I mean-

It should be in the mix, man. I mean, it is a beautiful property and I'm excited to have people here in my backyard and in a year, I guess two years when we come back to the president's cup. But yeah, it opens up next, next week. Sick. That's awesome, man. I'll let you go. I know you got another show after this. We recorded this one a little bit late, so I got to get sent to the editor and get it up for these guys by at least December.

Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for joining me again, man. So what's the, what's the promo code I should be given out now? I always get confused. Is it it's it's inside golf 50 now.

They should just use your inside golf one, right? You get a year. It's not like the end of the season, right? An annual subscription gets you a full 12 months, right? So get in now. Take advantage. Get the John Deere stuff. Get ready for the Open Championship. Amy's going to have great stuff for you there. Then you get to hang with us through the swing season. We are not done. We just launched player pages. Tournament pages are coming very, very soon. Part of it, too, is we don't want you to have to go to other spots to get other information. We want to be able to have you live there.

in the Betts Birds Golf Network to be able to find all the information that you need. So yeah, use bettsbirdsgolf.com, use promo code INSIDEGOLF. Poor Andy and the content that he's doing here. Yeah, you can just get that. Again, you can use it for a week. You can use it for a month. The annual subscription is obviously the best way to get it from a bank for your buck standpoint. Obviously, it's a little bit more of a steeper journey to take your first start, but I'd be very, very surprised that you're going to come in and find it to not be a massive ad. It's like adding a Volki, you know, lob wedge to your, to your bag.

It makes you save shots. Total game changer. Yeah. And one thing that I can say about the team as well is like,

You guys are adding to it every single day. I would lock in the price now. We always pride ourselves on keeping it incredibly reasonably priced and industry low for what we're providing. But we've added tremendously in the past year. So even when I first started working with you guys in what, February,

The amount of stuff that has been added between now and February and a lot of those people that signed up in February at a lower price before we had any of the player profiles to lock that in now, not saying the price is going to go crazy up or anything like that. But what I can guarantee is we're just going to continue to add to it by the day in terms of the stuff that we're providing. So, yep, inside golf.

That's Bert's golf.com rabbit hole. We would, uh, we would love to have you. And I think one of the other things too, is like, um, I struggled this with this frustration at, at other data sites, but like you could shoot me a message or shoot Ron a message or Ryan or any of the guys like, Hey, I think it'd be cool if you add this. We listen and read every single one of those things. Like we actually care about making this the highest user-friendly experience for you. We want you in a position where you're,

It's your one-stop shop for everything. You don't have to pay for anything else. So if there's anything that you want to add to it, we're a complete open book. You can reach out to me anytime. That's actually happened. There's been a couple folks that have sent me messages, hey, you should add this. I forward the message right away to Ron or one of you guys, and you guys have it up pretty quickly. So-

Yeah. We are human. We can forget stuff, right? If there's a different way that you want to see some stuff, we can maybe talk to you about why we didn't do it that way. Or maybe that's like, Hey, that's a great idea. We should add that. And then we can implement it. Yeah. We were ever evolving. We've, you know, dev resources to continue to add, to make this the best data source out there. So great point. Sweet. Thanks, Ryan. We'll do this again. We'll do this again soon, my friend, and good luck at the John Deere buddy. Appreciate it, buddy. You too.

All right. That's it for the podcast. I'll be back next week for a Sunday show, breaking down the Scottish open. We are in open championship season, folks, British open right around the corner. I'm traveling to long Island and then Chicago to play some golf over the next few days. And then I get back.

late on Friday night and I am just going balls to the wall on Royal Troon and the Open Championship I cannot wait for these next couple of weeks I hope you guys are excited as I am enjoy your 4th of July weekends best of luck with your bets at the John Deere and we will be back on this podcast feed next week cheers

If I ventured in the slipstream Between the viaducts of your dream Where mobile steel rims crack And the ditch and the back road stop

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