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Want to talk about BetUS? BetUS is an online legal sports book in all 50 states, and you can use promo code PICKTHEPUP for a 125% all-sports bonus on your first deposit at BetUS.com. The NBA Finals is upon us. I like the Suns, by the way. The British Open is right around the corner. NFL regular season win totals are out.
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All right, I'm recording this at 10 a.m. Pacific time on a Sunday morning, a little bit before the leaders tee off in the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. I thought this was going to be a doomed week for me when Brendan Todd, Chez Reavy, and Joseph Bramlett...
combined to shoot plus seven on Friday to all go from comfort comfortably making the cut to missing the cut by a shot I don't know if that's ever happened to me just really brutal stuff but it looks like my guys kind of rallied over the weekend like Snedeker is going to finish in the top 40 Munoz looks like he's going to finish in the top 40 Kirk
is definitely going to finish in the top 40. Mav McNeely looks like he's going to finish in the top 40. Tringale is going to finish in the top 40 and Kazire is going to finish in the top 40. So really nice bounce back week for me, um, or betting at least with my guys. DraftKings though, I just played too much web and too much Revy and too much Todd father for that matter. But yeah, I had a lot of Norrin, uh, and I had a lot of Sungjae and a lot of Merritt and a lot of Kirk. So that was really good. Um,
But I didn't play any Neiman. And that one is really going to sting if he wins because I have bet him so much this year, including last week at the Travelers. And at the Travelers, I watched him very closely on Shot Tracker. He had actually his fourth best short game week of his entire career, which is, if you're familiar with Joaquin Neiman's game, you know that short game is the one thing that he typically tends to really struggle with.
And he had his like his fourth best short game week of his career. And he still didn't even sniff the top 25 of that tournament. And I just dug into some more of the numbers. And I was like, I don't know if this guy I don't know if he's the guy that maybe I think he is. And and if he's somebody that I should keep betting at, like below 45 to one, I was just like, I need to take some time off and see it.
Turns out he is that guy. Whether he wins or not, I probably should have stayed the course and played him even though I really didn't like what I saw when I was following him closely for the past couple of tournaments. He's so talented that clearly he can just turn it around pretty quickly regardless of if his ball striking is kind of trending in the wrong direction. He just...
has a ton of talent. But I'm pretty happy with where the process is at. As is tradition, I found a lot of guys lower on the board that were really good plays. And I kind of whiffed on the top of the board with Webb. But like Neiman at 18% and $500 more expensive than Sungjae at 8% was what I kind of said on the Mayo show. It's like, I'm never going to do that.
Um, I'm never going to play an 18% Neiman at $500 more expensive than an 8% Sungjae. Um, I'm going to play Sungjae 10 times out of 10. And Sungjae was a great pick too. The problem was I chose him over Neiman every single time. And I probably should have just played them both and gone lighter on Webb, but, um,
Guess what? No one cares. No one cares whatsoever. Hindsight is obviously 2020. So let's just move on to the John Deere classic. John Deere classic. Now, I love golf more than anyone you will ever meet. I love my job more than anyone you will ever meet. This is a tough one to get excited about.
This is a really tough one to get excited about. I almost thought about taking the John Deere off and doing like two full weeks of British Open stuff. I almost even thought about doing this show on the European Tour event.
this week because there's a ton of great players um playing in europe in that this week which makes sense right because they would want to get adjusted to the time difference over there um and get some reps on lynx golf uh and that's like an awesome field like rom is playing jt is playing morikawa is playing zander is playing rory is playing hatton is playing scotty scheffler is playing zalatoris even guys like billy horschel sam burns and
and Corey Connors are all going over a week early to play some links golf.
The guys who are playing this tournament, the John Deere, I mean, are all pretty much players that are not already qualified for the British Open with the exception of Daniel Berger and maybe a couple others that I am not aware of and did not really look into, to be honest with you. I believe that if they win this tournament, yes, I know that if they win this tournament, they do get into the British Open and the John Deere actually charters a play for them on Sunday night. So that's nice.
But the field is horrendous. I would say the biggest name, definitely the biggest name is Daniel Berger. He's the only player ranked inside the top 25 of the official world golf rankings in this field. Sungjae is ranked 26th. So the next best player would probably be Sungjae. And then you get into this group of Brian Harmon, Russell Henley, Siwoo, Kevin Strillman. That's your 30 to 1 and below range this week. It's just absolutely brutal. So
I thought about not even wasting my time, but you know what? I figured 4th of July weekend, a lot of people are probably going to mail it in this week. Very understandable. Or just go light on their content or betting cards. Again, very understandable. And I thought...
You know what? Maybe I could really take advantage of a week like this because I know so many of these crappy players so well that I bet I could find some mistakes in the DFS pricing and some mistakes in the betting odds, the top 40 market, and maybe really actually have more of an edge on a week like this than I do on a normal week. So I actually ended up digging into the John Deere pretty hard. So let's talk about it.
John Deere classic. It is in Silvis, Illinois, always the week before the British open. It's been a PGA tour event since 1972 started up at TPC deer run in 2000 though, former winners of this event. You have Dylan Fratelli in 2019. Russell Henley was the runner up. He won at 21 under. Then you have Michael Kim in 2018. He actually won by eight strokes. Um,
and Bronson, Bergoon, Joel Damon, Francesco Molinari, Sam Ryder. They were runner-up that year. 2017, Bryson. 2016, Ryan Moore. And then 2015, Jordan Spieth. 2014, Brian Harmon. 2013, Jordan Spieth. 2012, Zach Johnson. 2011, Steve Stricker. 2010, Steve Stricker. Steve Stricker also won in 2009. He won three years in a row. So kind of you get the sense like
Guys like Jordan Spieth, Brian Harmon, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker. We'll talk about the type of player that I'm looking for in a bit. Let's talk about the course first. So it's a par 71, 7,268 yards. It's designed by D.A. Wybring, bent grass, greens and fairways, Kentucky bluegrass, rough, 6,000 yards.
square foot greens on average. We did not get this tournament last year due to the pandemic, but in 2019, it ranked as the fifth easiest out of 51 courses on tour. It is always ranked on average over the last 10 additions as one of the top 10 easiest courses on tour. 41 yard wide fairways.
So for context, Detroit Golf Club has 34 yard wide fairways and those fairways were easy to hit. Torrey Pines, for example, has like 25 to 30 yard wide fairways. So these fairways are big. They are very easy to hit. I know that Bryson won here, but it was before he beefed up.
So just keep that in mind with the bombing gouge stuff. He barely even cracked 300 yards that week. The last five winners, Bryson was the best in driving distance, and he was 38th that week. Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harmon, Jordan Spieth again, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker three years in a row, right? Like not exactly a murderer's row of bombers. So with extremely wide and easy fairways to hit,
I believe that this is more so of an approach course. Top 10 finishers have gained an average of over 0.8 strokes on approach per round. That is over double what they have gained off the tee and almost three times what they have gained around the green and even more than what they have gained putting. Although obviously putting is still going to be really important this week because these greens are not particularly difficult to hit either. So players that have done well here, uh,
a lot of really good iron players. I found it to be way more important than off the tee here. Although it is worth mentioning that Dylan Fratelli did win this tournament in 2019 while losing strokes on approach. Now he gained a combined 12.3 strokes around the green and putting. So of course there is always a roadmap every single week where you can just make absolutely everything that you look at.
and win the tournament. And that is what Dylan Fratelli did in 2019. But if you look right below him on the leaderboard, you have guys like Russell Henley, who gained 7.7 strokes on approach and Colin Morikawa, who gained 8.9 strokes on approach. So I'm really starting to hone in on some iron players. So we talked about this last week with Detroit Golf Club, how it was so easy and ball striking is really mitigated and it just completely turns into a
I would say that this is...
somewhat similar, but a little bit less so. And I do think that being a really, really, really good iron player still gives you a really nice advantage this week. I know it gives you a nice advantage every week, but you get what I'm saying. Like, even though these greens are easy to hit, like 71% greens and regulation percentage, that is pretty massive compared to the tour average of 65%. But looking at the guys that have played well here,
It's just a lot of really good iron players who have gained a lot on approach and have putted well. That really seems to be the formula. Whereas with off the tee, these fairways are so easy to hit. Like we're talking 72% driving accuracy with 41 yard wide fairways compared to the average tour event of 62%. Like that is a 10 percentage point gap across tour average of how easy it is to hit these fairways.
That is just such a sizable gap that you don't see every day. I'm not saying that we throw off the tee out the window, but I would rather just hone in on good wedge players because I don't think that guys that are either a little bit wild off the tee or guys that are a little bit shorter off the tee, they just don't have as big of a disadvantage as they would most week. Here's a quote from Ryan Moore that I found, former champion.
The golf course has enough angles and the holes that you can force it down a little bit farther. They're pretty difficult tee shots. So guys that hit it significantly farther than me don't have a huge advantage on a golf course like this. Makes sense, right? So a player like Zach Johnson,
or Jordan Spieth for that matter, who historically rarely ever gains a ton of strokes off the tee. Like I was doing, I was doing some Zach Johnson stuff this morning and Zach Johnson's like a really successful PGA tour player with a long career. I mean, he's won two majors throughout the course of his career. Like you rarely ever, ever gain strokes off the tee. Um,
But he's so good with his wedges that this is kind of the perfect spot for those guys. Spieth, one here ranking 60th in driving accuracy. Zach Johnson, one here ranking 34th.
Stricker, one here ranking 32nd. Stricker, one here again, ranking 62nd. But all of those guys ranked inside the top 16 in proximity to the hole and in the top eight in putts per green and regulation. So that should really give you a sense of what it takes to win here.
I think that iron play is definitely a little bit more important than it was last week. But just like last week, with an easy course, you still have to putt. Like here's a quote from D.A. Points.
Again, for lack of a better term, it's a putting contest, and that's why Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson win a lot because they make everything. So there you go. It's still a week where you need putting. Anytime it's an easy course like this, I am looking at putting more so than I would on a hard course. I'm maybe not looking at putting as much as I did last week because the correlations aren't as strong as they were last week, whereas last week,
putting had like proven to be the most important correlated stack compared to any other tour course. This week, putting is still very high up there in terms of its importance, but I'm definitely not weighing it more than like strokes gain approach and just wedge play in general. So let's get into the stats that I think are going to be really important this week. And then I'll give you guys some of the guys that I am leaning towards early on.
So speaking of wedge play, I think the proximity distances are going to be really important this week. Like that 125 to 175 range range.
going to be really big, right? I mean, you're going to, of course, there are three par fives in this course, and there are a few longer par fives. So you're going to have a couple 200 yards plus, like it's not the 200 yards plus range is not by any means significantly lower here than it is at other courses. But again, it's really kind of that wedge range of like 125 to 175. And
and par fives strokes, gain par fives. I know that there are only three par fives on this course, but two of them are reachable and two. And I just really think that like, unless it's a par 70, I'm always looking at par strokes, gain par fives, because all these guys, like you look at the guys that play well in these tournaments at the end of the week, it's
always the guys that play best in the par fives. And you can, I mean, they're scoring opportunities everywhere here, but you can really score on some of these par fives. So I'm looking at strokes game par fives a little bit, not as much as I would on a course with four par fives, but it's in there a little bit.
Birdies are better gains and opportunities gained. Pretty self-explanatory. Need to absolutely make some birdies here and give yourself the maximum amount of attempts inside 15 feet. I think that's going to be huge. And then average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions. Big time thing to look at here. I looked at it last week. It helped a lot. Like it gave me some guys like Kazire and Norin where they were just popping, you
Big time in terms of how they would do on birdie fests and easy courses compared to how they would do on harder courses. And, you know, it really helped me take a deeper look at some players that I wouldn't have normally. And you just kind of want to find guys that enjoy these types of tournaments because this type of tournament, it's a very different vibe and it's a very different, it's like, it's a different brand of golf, right?
Forget the majors. Like it's a different brand of golf than even just a tournament like Bay Hill or the Honda classic. Like this course sets up a lot more like a corn fairy tour event or a course that some of these guys would see in college.
And just like learning how to grind out pars and manage your style of play on hard courses is a skill. So is maximizing your ability to go as low as possible on a really easy course. So a player like Matthew Fitzpatrick,
really really good at playing hard course as well right not very good at taking advantage of easy courses but someone like Patton Gazire really really really good at making a ton of birdies and just has like a great skill set and style of play that fits a birdie fest there's a big difference in style of play so look out for those guys short game putting bent grass sure why not I'll give it a look um
Strokes gain TPC courses. So I've talked about this a little bit before, but many of these TPC courses, even if they are designed by different designers, they are courses that are commissioned by the PGA Tour for tournament play, right? So they feature a lot of the same elements. They are courses that
are specifically designed for these types of tournaments. They'll have a lot of the same sight lines, a lot of the same gimmicks, a lot of the same types of holes. Like for example,
I talked about this with TPC Craig Ranch, right? That new course that hosted the Byron Nelson, where it was this new PGA Tour course, but the designer, Time Wisecop, was the same designer of TPC Scottsdale. And good old Craig, the guy who commissioned the tournament and the course, he basically said to Wisecop, make me a course for a PGA Tour tournament.
Sure enough, I told you that there was a strong correlation between TBC Craig Ranch and TBC Scottsdale because they were designed in the exact same vein. What do you know? A random player like KH Lee, who finished second at TBC Scottsdale...
Goes on to win at TBC Craig Ranch. Did I bet KH Lee? No, of course I didn't bet KH Lee. That would make too much sense, right? Of course I didn't bet KH Lee and not follow my own advice. But anyway, here's a quote from Zach Johnson.
If you look at TPC River Highlands, it's kind of got that sort of ingredient. He's talking about TPC Deer Run, by the way, where you have a reachable par 5, you've got a short par 4, a par 3, a lot of water, and just holes that you can either go really, really low or it can really bite you.
So I think TPC River Highlands is a pretty good comp. I am going to take a look at how players perform on TPC courses just a little bit, but it's not likely something that is going to put me on or off a player. I just think that it is something interesting to look at. And then course history, I mean...
Sure, I think there's something to the fact that the same players always tend to play well here every single year. I think it is a course that you can definitely get more comfortable with the more times that you play it. So sure, I'll look at it a little bit. In a vacuum, wedge play, spike putters, guys that are very comfortable going low.
Dylan Fratelli, Michael Kim, Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson, Mr. John Deere, Steve Stricker, Spieth. They are all awesome putters, but they are also all really, really good wedge players. And then Bryson, Sean O'Hare, Johnny Vegas, John Senden, Troy Madison, Kyle Stanley, all guys that have finished really highly here.
maybe they're not as good putters or they're more volatile at least, but really, really good with their short irons, especially that week. And they were really great with their proximity distances and they made enough putts to win. So like,
A guy like Sean O'Hare, John Senden, Harmon, Bryson, Michael Kim, Spieth, Dylan Fratelli, they all broke through with their first win here. So it can be anyone, like fucking Michael Kim won here. It's actually proven to be a pretty good breakout spot over the past couple of years. And the last thing I would say is that if your method for last week at Detroit Golf Club worked,
which mine did to a certain extent, you might not want to change it a whole lot. The biggest change that I'm making this week is
I'm tweaking some of the proximity stuff a little bit, a little bit more on approach and a little bit less on putting. And I'm adding a little bit of back grass putting stuff and some TPC course slash course history stuff. But that's basically it, right? It's, it's a very similar type of tournament in terms of what it is asking of the players and the type of skillset that you probably want to look at. Okay.
Early leads, early leads. I let's actually, you know what? I want to talk about Daniel Berger first. So Daniel Berger obviously is number one in my model. I think if he's not number, if you're making a model and Daniel Berger is not number one, I would question your model. So looking at what he's done recently, it's been pretty incredible. He is coming off a seventh place finish at the U S open where we had him bet him top 20 that week.
And he gained in all four major categories, including 6.7 strokes on approach. So this was Berger's sixth top 10 of the season in 12 starts. He has finished top 10 in 50% of his starts this year.
He's gained off the tee in 11 of 12 starts this year. He's gained on approach in 11 of 12 starts this year. And the ball striking, like it's getting better. He's actually trending positively in the ball striking department. Finished fifth here in 2017, 33rd here in 2019. And if you just look at the metrics that I'm weighing, like
Top 10 in almost everything. First in strokes gained approach over his last 36 rounds. Ninth in opportunities gained. Second in birdies or better gained. Eighth in par 5 scoring. First in proximity from 150 to 175 yards. Fourth in proximity from 175 to 200 yards. Grain on bent grass. The problem that I have with Berger is the same problem that I had with Bryson last week. And...
why I kind of had such a hard time betting Bryson at 7-1 in that tournament. You could actually make an argument that relative to field strike and how he has actually been playing, Berger should actually be a heavier favorite in this field than Bryson was last week, in my opinion. Now,
I don't know if he will be because he's not as big of a name as Bryson, but burgers played better golf than Bryson this year. And this field is way weaker than the one that we saw at the rocket mortgage. The problem is,
You want to bet heavy favorites at the majors, right? Like that is the most justifiable time to bet heavy favorites is at the majors because at a lot of the majors, a high percentage of the field is just not winning. They just aren't. It's not happening. It is not happening or it's very, very, very unlikely to happen, right?
But tournaments like the John Deere and the Rocket Mortgage where so much is dependent on putting and the very, very elite ball strikers tend to lose a little bit of their advantage. This was my big problem with why I couldn't wrap my head around the Bryson thing last week.
That's like the last place that you want to bet a favorite, right? Because this is the week that players like Mark Hubbard and Richie Rwinski, those guys are licking their chops this week. Those guys are licking their chops this week. This is like one of the five weeks all year that they know that they could actually win. They could. Dylan Fratelli won in 2019. Michael Kim won by eight strokes in 2018. So tournaments like this,
where the course is so easy and there's a greater emphasis on putting favorites are less likely to win these tournaments than they are at majors. It's just a numbers game right now. You could say that gets evened out a little bit by the fact that like in a major, there's a better field.
I totally understand that. Like a favorite in a major, yeah, he has to fend off more of the better players in the world. Whereas this week, Daniel Berger, he doesn't have to fend off as many strong players. But you kind of see what happens at these tournaments if you just look at them historically. Like you're basically asking the question of,
Would I rather bet a favorite and try and have him win a tournament where he has to fend off some of the other best players in the world? Or would I rather bet a favorite and have him fend off 155 games that guys that are legitimately live?
And the difference between a top 25 player in the world and a top 200 player in the world, the margins are so much thinner than I think people think. There's just so many guys that are good now. The PGA Tour has never been deeper ever. So if Daniel Berger brings his A game, of course he can win.
right? Like, of course he can win. Just like if Bryson brought his A game last week, of course he could win. But,
I'm pretty comfortable letting guys like that beat me at tournaments like this. And, you know, like if burgers 12 to one, I think you could argue that's value. Like I said, by my numbers, I think that burger should be a bigger favorite this week than Bryson was last week. Yeah.
And, you know, he is, if, like I said, if Berger brings his A game, he could absolutely win, but it's just not the direction I am going to go down based on how I'm handicapping this tournament. All right. So I think you're going to have the guys that I think are going to have some odds that people are going to be like, Oh man, like how can I bet these guys at 25 to one or 18 to one or 30 to one or whatever? I think Henley Harmon,
and Strielman and Sung Jane Siwoo Kim. Those guys are all going to come in at like under 30 to one. And I don't know if I'm going to get there with any of them, but I will say that the guy that I'm probably most comfortable paying up for, this was the guy that I wrote up in my rotoballer article, which will come out tomorrow, um, would be Russell Henley. Um,
So two career appearances at TBC Deer Run. He's gone 27th and second. He's averaging 2.1 strokes gained per round at TBC Deer Run.
fifth in this entire field in average strokes gained per round on TBC courses. He checks every box for me. Last 36 rounds, second in approach, 13th in opportunities gained, second in proximity from 125 to 150, 13th in proximity from 150 to 175. Incredible wedge player, second in this entire field in average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions.
I know he's going to be popular this week and it may just be a week where I just eat it because I think this is a really good spot for him to win. 13th at the US Open and 19th at the Travelers in his last two starts. He contended at both of those tournaments and the
the final results aren't really indicative of how great he has been. Like he had a really good chance to win both of those tournaments. One of them being the fricking us open. And he just had a really bad Sunday, but like at the travelers, he gained 2.4 strokes off the tee. Uh, that's his best off the tee week of the season. Uh, the approach remains awesome. He's gained over three strokes in both of his last two starts. Uh,
And he just needs that putting week, which he is certainly capable of. Like he gained nine strokes putting at the CGA Cup in October and eight strokes putting at the Honda in March. So he has that spike putting week in him. We just haven't really seen it yet. And he's still contending in these tournaments despite being slightly above average with the putter. So I think he's probably the best option of that group of that.
Harmon and Strillman and Siwoo and Sungjae group they're all gonna although Sungjae like I was on him last week and he played really really well this week so we'll see I want to look I'm gonna have to look harder at Sungjae but those guys are all gonna have odds that are going to be very unappealing to people um for the player that these people think that these guys are and um they're
A lot of people are probably going to stick their nose up at these odds and skip it entirely. I may be one of those people, but I'm just saying if I had to choose, Henley would be the guy that I would pay up for. I might get priced out of it. I'm not going to do this whole thing on Berger and Hensley.
how I don't think it makes a ton of sense to bet Berger at a really short number and then turn around and bet like Russell Henley at 18 to one. I don't think he'll be that low, but you never know. But if he's close to 30, like, and that might be wishful thinking, he would probably be the player that I'm most inclined to start my card with.
Going down a little bit deeper, there are a couple more guys that I want to talk about really briefly. I'm going to talk about three more guys that I really like. And then a lot of these guys I haven't done a ton with yet because I want to wait until the rocket mortgage is over. And I'm recording this on Sunday morning and I want to get the full strokes gained from
numbers from that tournament before I dig into, um, the rest of the field, because a lot of these guys that I'm looking at, they made the cut at the rocket mortgage and they're playing over the weekend. So the vast majority of the guys that I've really done a deep dive with are guys that either miss a cut at the rocket mortgage or didn't play in the rocket mortgage. So with that kind of player pool, Aaron wise, I really like, um,
Now he is a tricky one. He has been hitting the ball really, really well. He's gained over 1.8 strokes off the tee in four of his last five starts. He's gained off the tee in 11 of his last 12 starts this season. The ball striking is there. He's been weirdly good around the green as well. Not that I think that is going to matter a whole lot here, but he's made five cuts in a row, including a ninth at the Wells Fargo, a ninth at the Memorial and a 17th at the PGA championship. So,
All really, really great fields. So he can really play. He's really playing good golf right now. And, you know, on first glance, I look at his results and all of his better finishes, at least recently, are on harder golf courses. But, you know, he finished second at the OHL in December. That's an easy golf course. And his only win came at the Byron Nelson.
really easy golf course. Third at Bermuda, really, really easy golf course. So he can absolutely get it going in a birdie fest. He did finish 16th here in 2016. It's all going to come down to the putting, right? Like he's not a good putter. But in an outright sense, I think that's fine. That's kind of the type of player that I'm okay betting on because when the putter gets bad, it gets really bad. And I'm not going to hit that
that bad anyway and he'll just miss the cut but if he does gain strokes putting uh he usually gains over two and he's one of those guys that if he does gain strokes putting he does possess a legitimate chance to win based on how good his ball striking is um so i think he's absolutely good enough to win in this field i really like aaron wise i'll have to see what the number comes down and he tends to be a player that a lot of guys uh he tends to be popular uh right so i'll have to see
But probably what I'm seeing with Aaron Wise, a lot of other people are going to see with Aaron Wise too. I don't think he's going to be sneaky by any means, but he's somebody that I have my eye on early. And then my guy, Johnny Vegas. I love Johnny Vegas here. I absolutely love Johnny Vegas here. I bet him a couple weeks ago at the Palmetto, he three putted on the 16th hole and finished one stroke back there.
That one hurt, but I am absolutely ready to go back to my guy Vegas over his last 36 rounds. He is first in strokes gain off the tee. Sorry, I have a little bit of a cold right now. 24th in strokes gain approach. Fourth in opportunities gain. 23rd in birdies or better gained. 15th in par five scoring. Really good with those proximity distances. He's coming off two weeks in a row where he's gained three and a half strokes on approach. His irons are awesome.
Awesome right now. And off the tee, not that I think that this is a huge off the tee course, as I mentioned, but he is the best driver of the golf ball in this field. And he's coming off a week at the U.S. Open where he gained 5.9 strokes ball striking in that field, in that U.S. Open field. Johnny Vegas, 5.9 strokes ball striking, and he lost 6.4 strokes putting.
Now, same thing with Aaron Wise. This is just a classic example of what I do. I really talk a lot about how
putting really, really matters this week. And then the first two guys that I give you are guys that are just like objectively bad putters in Aaron lives and Johnny Vegas. I never follow my own advice, but anyway, Johnny Vegas is not a good putter. Um, so I can't say that we're getting a good putter coming off a bad week. Um, in the start coming off a bad putting week, it's hit or miss for him, right? Like I talk a lot about play good putters come
coming off bad putting weeks. I talk about that all the time and it really, really works out for me. When you have bad putters coming off bad putting weeks, like Johnny Vegas, like it's hit or miss, right? Um, he's always better, right? But sometimes he loses a little bit and sometimes he gains a little bit. So we'll have to see. My biggest concern with him is that
I don't know if he can get hot enough with the putter to win this tournament. Like he has not gained over 1.5 strokes putting this entire year. Uh, that is his best putting week this year is 1.5 strokes putting. That's not going to win you a golf tournament. Now he's won before, like he's won three times. Uh, coincidentally, none of those wins did he gain too many strokes putting, but he did a little bit better than 1.5. He's going to have to do a little bit better than that. Um, so, uh,
We'll have to see with Johnny Vegas. I really like him as a player. I think that all of his best results are at easy courses. He's a two-time winner of the Canadian Open. That's an easy course. Won the Amex. That's an easy course. Second at Palmetto this year. That's a really easy course. Second at Puerto Rico in February. That's a really easy course. Finished third at the John Deere in 2017. 14th in average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions. So
I just think that this is a really, really good spot for Johnny Vegas. And I'm probably going to bet him. Probably going to bet him. We're going to see what the odds are, but I'm probably going to bet him. We'll have to see. I mean, again, like it's going to be really interesting to see where they put these numbers at. Like, I think that.
Based on the projections that I have, I may be really way off and it may lead me down the path of like a completely different group of players. But Johnny Vegas and Aaron Wise are two guys that stood out to me right off the bat. And then the last guy that I want to talk about is a player by the name of Zach Johnson.
Zach Johnson, two-time major winner and the king of the John Deere. Well, Stricker's probably the king of the John Deere Classic, but Zach Johnson, his history at the John Deere Classic, he has won this tournament. He's finished in the top five four other times. So,
Not going to be catching anybody by surprise this week. Not going to be catching anybody by surprise this week. Guess what? The reason that I like Zach Johnson has nothing to do with his course history at TBC Deer Run. Okay, it has a little bit to do with his history at TBC Deer Run, but trust me, I'm not a big course history guy. If Zach Johnson wasn't doing the things that I cared about, I would not have any interest in him whatsoever.
But Zach Johnson hit the ball incredibly well at the Travelers. He gained 4.5 strokes on approach. That is his best approach week since October and lost strokes putting for the second start in a row, which he hasn't done since September of 2019. Now we get back to playing a good putter coming off a bad putting week.
He can really, really pop with that club. He's had five starts this season where he has gained over 4.5 strokes putting, and he is now coming off a bad putting week, and the ball striking is trending in the right direction as well. Like, is Zach Johnson...
Going to lose strokes putting three weeks in a row on a course where he's probably the most comfortable player in this field. Short of Steve Strecker on these screens, the number one bent grass putter in this entire field over his last 24 rounds. Just crazy.
won millions of times on back grass. That's a lie. He's not won millions of times on back grass, but he's won John Deere. He's won the masters on back grass. He loves back. He's a number one back grass putter over his last 24 rounds. And he has multiple wins on this surface. So Zach Johnson, you know, I may get priced out of really being able to play him because I think he's going to be overpriced and over owned solely because of the course history. And,
Like to me, the reason to play Zach Johnson is because the off the tee is getting better. The approach is getting better. Um, and he's coming off a bad putting week. So I think Zach Johnson is a really, really, really great play. And I tend to, um, I tend to avoid chalk, uh, almost to my detriment sometimes. And I think Zach Johnson, uh,
might be a guy that is worth paying up for. I really do. I mean, I still may get priced out of him. It still may be kind of like astronomical where it's like, is Zach Johnson like really this expensive and over 20% at that point? No, I'm not going to do it. But if you asked me like some of the questions that I get sometimes, it's like, what, what
What guys are you more comfortable with? Like the definition would be bad shock and good shock, right? And I think the easiest, shortest answer to that question is the lower price shock they are, the more higher percentage they are to be bad shock. Like Doc Redman, Sepp Straka, bad shock. Bad shock last week. Jason Kokrak, not really bad shock.
Honestly, not bad shock at all. And like, sometimes I make the mistake of not playing what is pretty good shock, like Abraham answer at the travelers, like retrospectively, like that was good shock, right? Like Joaquin Neiman, very, very popular this week, right? Like that was good shock. And so I think Zach Johnson is, is,
A really good play this week. I think he's a guy that I would be pretty comfortable paying up for. He is the number one putter in this entire field on bank grass and in general. Number one in average strokes game per round at TPC deer run. Game strokes in easy scoring conditions, game strokes on TPC courses. So I like Zach Johnson. I like Zach Johnson a lot.
um, maybe not to win, but I think Zach Johnson is going to have a really, really big week and I'm probably in on him no matter what. I think that'll do it. Um, the rest of the guys, I just want to see, I want to get a full spectrum of what they do on Sunday at the rocket mortgage. So a lot, a lot of these guys like,
I'm looking a little bit at Lucas Glover. I'm looking at Patton Kazire again. I'm looking at Seamus Power. I'm looking at Noren again. I'll probably go back to a little Alex Noren. Maybe I'll probably go back to a little Troy Merritt. Maybe maybe go back to Munoz as well. Not sure if I'll get back to McNeely, but I'm
I want to see how some of these guys do on Sunday at the rocket mortgage before I make any other huge commitments, but that will do it for me. Happy 4th of July. Have a great rest of your 4th of July weekend. Enjoy all of the golf this weekend. I'm rooting for anybody that has somebody in the mix. I think Neiman will probably take it down. So rooting for you. If you have Neiman, I got Neiman,
a couple of horses in the race that are probably just a little bit too far back. I'd probably go with Neiman. Um, and I know I have a couple people that bet Neiman this week. So, um,
Best of luck with the golf, the rest of the golf this week. Enjoy for the July. And I will be back on Tuesday for my betting preview of the John Deere Classic, talking it over with my buddy Mark Diana, GolfBets101 on Twitter. That should be really fun. Going on the Turn podcast this week on Monday night to talk DFS with my guy Joe Nicely and Andrew Putters. That should be fun. And then...
then British Open right around the corner got a great schedule of British Open content coming up as well can't wait to dive into that that'll do it for me best of luck with your bets this weekend and happy 4th of July drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are
or just the beginning. Getting into a crash is another way that your world can be turned upside down. Your vehicle may not be the only thing that gets damaged in that crash. You can face a life altering injury
or even death. But you're not the only one that can face those consequences. Your decision to drink and drive can permanently impact not just your world, but someone else's world as well. Whether you injure them or leave their loved ones grieving. The next time you're out drinking, call a rideshare, a taxi, a sober friend,
or a designated sober driver. The only decision that will change your world for the better is the decision to call for a sober ride. Drive sober or get pulled over. Paid for by NHTSA.
