Honda Classic with Twiterless Steve
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If I ventured into

Okay. Inside golf podcast, Honda classic with a Twitter list. Steve, one of my all time favorite guests, extremely smart dude. Uh, we argue about agronomy all the time. He really knows his stuff. And that's why I always, uh, love having him on. If you haven't already for a deeper dive on this golf course and a lot of the key stats that I'm looking at, check out the Sunday show, which is also on this podcast feed, Honda classic betting and DFS preview. Uh,

And I think that's it at the top. Let's bring in Steve.

All right. Steve Schirmer's here. Twitterless Steve, as I call him, co-host of the Golf Gambling Podcast. How are you this week, buddy? Good to see you. Yeah, good to see you too. We had a little bit of an interesting conversation back and forth while you were at Riviera this week, sending me some photos and videos that you couldn't put on Twitter because you would offend a certain fan base with that. I appreciate you sending that and

us having our little chat, you know, and you know, on the side. So yeah, but thanks for having me on the show. I really, I really appreciate being on. And congrats to you on the Neiman hit my friend. Thank you. Appreciate it. That's two in a row. I think I was with everybody with Scheffler at Phoenix and I have no idea how much people were on Neiman this week. I saw his number kind of get steamed a little bit up to, I think like, I think I'm one book 45 to one, but I got in early. I just had a good feeling on him and yeah, it hit and I'm ready to roll for with the Honda here.

Well, that's the beauty of talking to Twitterless Steve. He's completely oblivious of how popular these guys are. Neiman was pretty popular. So talking to you, like you have no idea. You probably don't even know who Mito Pereira is. Of course I know who Mito Pereira is. He shows really well on my stats page. Yeah, as he does with everyone. But no, I mean, that was a great hit. I...

I played him in DraftKings. Unfortunately, I paired him with Matthew Fitzpatrick, who didn't play in the tournament. So that didn't go very well for me. But other than that, it was a solid week and happy to see a lot of my buddies, you included, get in on that. He's talented as hell. I think people don't realize how young he is. Yeah. I mean, I think my premise going into last week was, I mean, like you have all these young guns who are getting the big wins. Like Shuffler just got his big win. He got Morikawa and, you know, Sungjae has got a couple of wins now and

You know, Neiman's got the one win, but it's so long ago. And it felt like he kind of got shuffled back in the pack. And when I saw the 71 number, I just realized, all right, well, did really well. Torrey, he had a good couple of finishes in the fall. I just believe in the talent. That was just a bet on that. So, so yeah, that was good. But, uh,

I think with the Fitzpatrick thing, I'm kind of wracking my brain. Like what's the solution to that for like guys in the West coast? Like, I mean, I could just, we could get like a, like a emergency phone line between us to like kind of how the Soviet union USA had tried. Kirshner tried really hard. I sent you a message too. And it's like calling me. Yeah, no, it's, and I'm an early riser too. I actually am up at six.

most mornings. The thing is, and I should probably change my schedule. Thursday's my day to like sleep in because I'm grinding so hard Monday through Wednesday. And then Thursday, it's like, okay, I play golf on Thursday. I have a golf game on Thursday. And then Friday, I'm already starting with the next tournament. So Thursday's like my day off, but I should probably change that with the last minute withdrawals, especially because I'm playing Louis this week too.

Yeah. And I think they're going to tee off here around like 6:50 at Eastern time. So, man, yeah, you might have to actually stay up late on Wednesday just to make sure everything's all good. And then they go off here because, yeah, if you are playing Louis, we have there's been many examples. I think I got caught last year, I think at Bay Hill with Louis just last minute withdraw and ruin all my lineups. And I mean, at least a lot of my preterm at bats, he was nice to do it before he teed off. So all those got no action.

All right. Well, let's dive into it, my friend. So PGA National, it was designed by George and Tom Fazio in 1981 with a couple of Nicholas redesigns in between. I've joked on my Sunday show that we've got all my least favorite designers collaborating on the same project. But I actually think this course is pretty awesome. I love hard golf courses. I love firm and fast golf courses. And the fact that water comes into play on almost every hole creates

a lot of variance that maybe makes betting this tournament a little bit more difficult, but I love it for DraftKings because I'm telling you right now, Steve, chalky guys are going to bomb this week. And that's typically what I'm able to do my best work. Oh yeah, for sure. Like I think when you look at like Ricky's like history here, like usually a pretty chalky play before he kind of fell off a cliff, but like, I think he went,

win cut second cut like you can try looking at course history but just because of how penal this place is and you just get a couple bad holes at the wrong time like it's

It stuff can avalanche and, you know, you can see a guy just bomb out completely. So I think that's kind of like, I'm trying to give myself a little bit of grace this week that while yes, like I'll look at the data, I'll look at the numbers, things look good. I'm going to make a bad call. You're going to make a bad call. Stuff is just going to kind of blow up in our face this week and just try and stay patient and not freak out. If a guy we pick starts off with a, I don't know, 73 on Friday or Saturday or on Thursday, just kind of see how things go. Yeah.

So one thing I always like talking to you about before we dig into the odds board is because we always talk about how we push back a lot, how you can, there's a big opportunity to push back on popular narratives, especially in DraftKings. Is there anyone that, is there anything that you think people are like getting wrong with PGA National? Is there anything you think people are missing? It's a lot of the same stuff every year, right? But I'm trying to think if there's like an angle that we're not thinking of here.

I don't know. I mean, I think maybe the importance of accuracy, because, like, I mean, obviously at this tournament, you have to be accurate. The problem is we're taking driver out of a lot of these guys' hands, and a lot of the, you know, the accurate stats off the tee that we look at is, well, these guys are hitting driver, but these are hitting irons, maybe hitting, you know, hybrids and stuff like that. And it's kind of hard to...

really gauge how these guys do with those clubs more in their hand off the tee than just if they're at, I don't know, like last week at Riviera or like Torrey Pines or something. So for me, I'm not so much concerned about off the tee just because I think this is just a different week.

Like, you know, and we've seen guys who have won here and been successful who just bomb it all over the place. And I think you mentioned on your Sunday show is, you know, that maybe those guys get a little bit more of an edge because they're hitting clubs that they should be a little more accurate with and they can get out a little farther and, you know, short up their approach shot distances. So, you know, there's that. And I just think like everybody kind of gloms on to, you know,

when you get to a tournament like this with a really bad field, just everyone goes to the ball strikers. And I think it's important to recognize that. Yeah. Like there's some really good ball strikers here, but you know, you might run a model that says your guy is like the 30th best ball striker in this field, but you know, relatively speaking, that might not really mean a whole lot because, you know, just in general, they might be just slightly above average. It means they have a pretty big floor. There's a realm of possibility with that. So yeah,

Yeah, I think it's kind of, for me, I'm trying to look for guys who are just riding pretty good recent form with their ball striking, with their irons coming a little bit hot with it. You know, trying to find some guys that if you do misagree, which you are going to misagree, and hopefully you don't hit a water hazard, then you get up and down for par. You know, good Bermuda putters. Yeah, I mean, and then just guys who I think...

I know that they've done really good at really hard penal golf courses. There's a lot of golf courses I can think of with a lot of water, a lot of trouble on the PGA Tour, and I can see a lot of guys in this field where I can remember, okay, yeah, top five finish, top 10 finish. There's a lot of pieces of evidence I have that maybe supports me putting a bet on them or using the DraftKings this week. Yeah, the only thing that I was kind of...

that I wanted to push back on a little bit is like the idea that this tournament's a total crapshoot. Like four of the last 10 years, a guy below 20 to one has won like favorites play well at this course. And I think that's because you have to hit like golf shots. Like there are a lot of intimidating tee shots and Justin Thomas, Ricky Fowler, when he won, he was at the top of his game. He was like 16 to one that week, Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy, like, uh,

favorites play well here. Now you also get some total bombs too, but even the bombs were like,

unproving guys that turned out to be good. Like Russell Henley, who is now a 30 to one golfer. Um, Patrick Harrington, who's like the 43rd best golfer of all time just wasn't in good form. And even Keith Mitchell, who I'm sure we'll talk about. Like, I think Keith Mitchell's good. He got his breakout win here, but I think, I think Keith Mitchell is going to win multiple times on tour. I think he's a good player. So I think I don't really have an issue with in

in terms of betting, like this isn't, this wasn't a week where I was thinking like, okay, kind of like I did at pebble beach where I was like, okay, bombs away here. And I think I didn't really have anyone below 50 to one. I think you can go in either direction. I think this week, right? Like I think,

you know, if Louie or Sungjae or Berger or Neiman for that matter, like bring their a game, they will win. Right. The question, the thing that's tricky is like, it's not the best field this week. Right. And that's sometimes plays into the reason why you have more long shots is because it's not always the best field. Right. So there's not always the best players playing in this tournament, which makes it easier for longer odds guys.

Yeah, I think for me, like looking down the odds boards too, I kind of was trying to get like, okay, who can do an impression of like Michael Thompson? Who can do an impression of Keith Mitchell? Like, you know, those types of plays, like putting them in like, all right, a cookie cutter template of what I think can win here. And then trying to find like longer odds of guys and like, you know, maybe even some guys who I've seen them actually, you know, be relatively towards the top.

you know sometime this year but yeah like you're right it seems like theoretically at a golf course where you separate yourself the most on the libra with how you hit your irons yeah well i mean the best players in this field should hit their irons better so that's why i've seen good winners so yeah like i mean i think i have a little bit of a mix as far as my betting car as far as

you know, a little bit with the top tier, a little bit of the mid-tier. I found a couple guys I liked, you know, around like 50, 60, 70 to one that I liked. And then I got, I think, one guy over 100. So, you know, just because he fit that Keith Mitchell mold. Yeah. No, it really goes both ways because I guarantee you that one of the favorites is going to miss the cut too and just get a punch in the water. So let's dig into it. Let's talk about the guys under 25 to one on DraftKings. So

I did this this morning. I'm sure these numbers may have changed a little bit. And feel free to throw out any numbers you had, Steve, on these guys. But Sung Jae Im's 10-1. Tommy Fleetwood's 14-1. Louie Usa's in 16. Billy Horschel's 18. Daniel Berger's 18-1.

Neiman's 18, Lowry's 22, Brooks is 22. On DraftKings, those are like the top guys. And then there's this drop off to Matthew Wolfe at 35. You betting any of these guys, Steve? So I really only wanted to pick one guy out of this group. And I was trying to think, you know, I was trying to go for the guys around 20. Now, Louie's number has moved up since those numbers in the morning.

I think it opened around 22 or 20 or so there, and I, there might be a 20 still out there. So it was either going to be him. It was going to be Fleetwood. It was going to be Capco who I think I can make a case for this week or Shane Lowry. And I ended up on Shane Lowry this week at 25. I got that number. And I think the benefit of, so I keep my own data. I keep my own spreadsheet. And part of the benefit of that is I can incorporate people.

the European tour strokes, gain data, uh, that you can get on data golf. And, you know, I mean, if you just look at just as PG tour results, all you see recently is the Houston open and CJ cup, nothing notable. Um,

But he's played a lot of golf since then. He had a top 10 at the Alfred Dunhill and the DP World Championship last fall. You know, those are two actually pretty strong European tour fields. Finished, I think, T12 at the Abu Dhabi, which actually had pretty difficult scoring conditions this week. He finished T12 at the Saudi as well. Again, two pretty good fields. The one thing that Lauer's been doing really well is just hitting the hell out of his irons lately. He's gained in about...

a stroke per round with his irons over his last 12 rounds. And he just has a lot of good finishes last year on just some difficult golf courses like, you know, PGA Championship at Kiowa. That's a golf course where you can't really get out of position. He has, I think, a T6 at the Memorial

Memorial, that's a Jack Nicklaus. I know that's a completely different golf course in this place, but I mean, conceptually, that's one where you can't really get out of position. It's super penal. Like you have to kind of plot around and he's got a good result there. He was T11 at Liberty National. It's a golf course with a lot of water on it. He was eighth at Sawgrass last year. He just, he's been playing a lot of solid golf for the last year. And, you know, his results here are kind of okay.

but you know, this is also a tournament where I know that, you know, the results you're there can be really mixed. And I just landed on him. I kind of like what I saw on paper with the European tour results. Uh, I'm not sure if anybody's really betting him, but yeah, I just, I was going to go Louie and I can make a great case for him. Anybody who wants to go Louie is in there, right? It's, it's a great pick, but I just, I wanted Lowry this week. Yeah. I, I love Lowry. I'm a play him in draft Kings. I went Louie in terms of betting. Um, I'd

I talked about him a lot on my Sunday show. I don't, you know, I don't know how popular he's going to end up being. I haven't listened to anything yet. I did speak to Jeff this morning and I know Jeff likes him. So I assume he'll get talked about on mail. Our friend, Brian, I don't know if you've heard this really likes Louie. Um, I,

I think all of this will matter in DraftKings, and if he becomes super popular, I'll gladly pivot to Berger or Neiman, who I also want to talk about. My first instinct on Sunday morning was, I think this all plays right into Louie's hands. We get the rare combination of a major championship-style golf course, but a weak field.

And I like how he has shaken the rust off in Phoenix. He looked really good in Phoenix, gained strokes in all four major categories. He's comfortable on Bermuda. He's comfortable in the wind. I don't know if there's injury concerns about Berger. Neiman might be tired. We never know what we're getting for the European guys that generally don't win here. I'm not as afraid of Billy Horschel and Sung Jae Im as I think others are. The door's kind of wide open for Louis right now. He should win this tournament.

I don't know if he's going to, but I think it's kind of a rare opportunity where very rarely do we see a golf course that Louis stays in is kind of perfect for. He doesn't have to deal with Morikawa and all the best golfers in the world and Rom and all those guys that also love hard scoring conditions, right? Yeah. I mean, actually, I think we have a pretty recent example of Louis's

Louis in a weak field on a golf course with a ton of water, a ton of bunkers. And that was at TPC twin cities. Yeah. Yeah. Kind of an abomination of the golf course too, but you know, he was T2 there and, you know, there's a lot of examples of him playing well at some penal golf courses, you know, a lot. And yeah, I mean, I think you're right. Like,

you know, it's, it's, I think some people have the narrative with Louie that, he'll only get up for like, you know, big events or, you know, stuff like that. But I mean, we saw it last summer. He, I think that was, wasn't that a week after the open too. And he just came over and played and he was perfectly fine. I think that,

I remember last year, I didn't like Louie because I was like, all right, he's going to be tired. And who cares about this event? And you could probably say the same narrative. All right, who cares about Honda? Maybe he's thinking about the players. But yeah, I think you're right. He definitely is a great match for this golf course. And if he is firing on all cylinders, there's maybe...

Two or three guys in this field that can equal him to beat him, really. Can I hear your Brooks case? Because I don't see it this week for him at all. So here's my case. I was off Brooks last week because he had been on record about just not liking Kikuyu. So what happened last week is just...

Whatever. I knew he wasn't going to play well in River Air just because he has admitted that he just doesn't hit the ball well there. So now he's going to get back on Bermuda. That's a service he's done well on in his career. He's been pretty good at this golf course. And he just...

contended at a golf course that he has a pretty good track record with at scottsdale you know this is going to play pretty difficult it usually does and i i didn't bet him because i was hoping the number would be like the books would kind of punish him a little bit too much it doesn't seem like they did that just because i think they left him just at 20 but i can see a path of

Maybe using him in DFS because he's not going to be owned this week. Everybody's still saying, all right, well, you know, I'm not going to use him at the Honda because again, there's the narrative. That's why I wanted you to sell me because I don't think anyone's going to play him this week. Yeah, I just think like this is going to be a golf course. He's going to be a little more comfortable on the surface, a little more comfortable. And you talked about it last night. You know, maybe the guys in Jupiter have a little bit of an edge here.

Yeah, I mean, he's one of those guys. So yeah, it would not surprise me if I don't think he's going to win, but like a T seven this week. And, you know, then we got him kind of, you know, we're chirping about him a little bit like, all right, can he finally go to the players and TPC Sawgrass and actually deliver a good performance there? You know, I can see that this week. Yeah, I was kind of thinking about

So basically I'm going, I think I'm going to do it at the top. Now shifting over to draft Kings a little bit is Louie Fleetwood and Lowry were the guys I was looking at, by the way, how's, how's Fleetwood's a Euro ball striking numbers.

Because he's actually been good too. Yeah, so he's actually doing pretty similar stuff that Lowry has been doing. Yeah, I like Fleetwood. The ball striking has been really good with him. It's just the putter that's been atrocious. And that's actually kind of been a problem for Fleetwood for the past year. His putter's been really dicey. And that's kind of, I think, why we've been seeing him. Well, I mean, Fleetwood's always been known to choke.

I know my co-host on the Golf Gaming Podcast can be very proud that I admitted that on air here. But, you know, you kind of even saw it at the Saudi where he was in position to win. And it just, I know it was really hard win conditions on the back nine. He, I think he shot a back nine 39. It just,

It's the same old story with him. And he did it exactly at this tournament too. I think before COVID, which seems like a billion years ago, he should have won that tournament. They gacked it away. I think at the Italian open last year, he had that tournament, you know, kind of under control. And I think he let that one slip away too. It just,

It's the same old thing with him. Like, I think he can play well. Like, you know, we're going to talk about another guy like, you know, that I like where, I mean, this golf course definitely favors, I think a more European style just because you're hitting a lot of mid irons, intermediate irons, more about just precision, you know, like, you know, just, you know, keeping out of trouble. And that's, you know, that's Tommy fleet was game. That's why he has, I think two top fives here, but yeah.

I didn't land on him. I mean, for DraftKings, I'm definitely not opposed to playing him just for my outright. Yeah, no. Well, the thing that's interesting is the fact that he's 14-1 at some places is

Like, yeah, I'm obviously not going to bet him at 14 to one. That is a queer message saying, Hey, we are good on your Tommy Fleetwood action. Like you can bet on other people. You can take that somewhere else guys. Cause we don't want it. Um, so I don't know. I'm going to play him in draft Kings. Listen, the best round of golf that I've ever seen in person in my entire life. I've gone to a lot of golf tournaments was Tommy Fleetwood Sunday, 65 at the U S open at Shinnecock.

better than Xander 61 and Northern trust better than some of the tiger rounds I've seen. He was like 10 strokes better than the field that day. And I just can't get that windy, hard, got to scramble, got to get up and down firm, fast, uh,

Actually, that plays right into your Brooks argument as well. Yeah, it does. I mean, he won Shinnecock, but yeah, I mean, it's, you know, you talked about, I think on your Sunday show about you like guys with good US Open success. And I mean, Tommy Fleetwood's that guy, you know, top 10 at Aaron Hills, top 10 at Shinnecock Hills. Yeah. I mean, it's- Port Rush, like Lowry too. Yep. And Lowry's another guy with some US Open good finish too with Oakmont and Chambers Bay as well. That was firm and fast. So-

So, yeah, I mean, those are the types of guys I kind of gravitated to this week, you know, just those types. Okay, quick hitters real quick. Sungjae in or out? I think I'm out on him. Yeah, me too. I know, like, it just seems like...

I just have a feeling like this is going to be one of those years where he just bombs out. Like, I guess if I'm picking knits, the irons haven't been all that great. The last three tournaments. I know he gained last, I think he gained last week, but he's been kind of yo-yoing a little bit between good performance, bad performance, the irons. I don't know. I just, I just have a feeling maybe this is just about like a bomb out week for him. Billy. Oh,

I'm always on Billy hole. I just, I can't stand that guy. No, it's, it's, it is full economic sanctions, full embargo and Billy Marshall. I just, I just never feel good having it on my betting card. And I, I, I totally get the argument. I totally understand why he would be great here. I just,

No. Yeah. He's kind of an easy fade for me, to be honest with you. Like I understand the love, but he played well at Torrey and Phoenix. He also gained 10 strokes putting over the course of those two weeks. Like I like Billy when he's between 40 and 80 and he's sneaking up on people. I don't think Billy's sneaking up on anyone right now. And I think he's overpriced. So I don't like it this week. Berger quick on Berger.

You know, I tried being cute and saying, oh, well, you know what? Maybe the back injury isn't all that great at Phoenix. You know, I'm not going to go that again. He's saying he's 16 this week. No, I'm not. I don't think I want to play that game. Yeah, me neither. So my theory was, Steve, if Berger opened up as the favorite,

than he would than I was going to play him because that would probably mean that he's completely healthy and I trust that sports books have more information on this stuff than people on Twitter and often the media and the fact that he didn't open as a favorite and he opened out like 18 to one amount that smells funky that means they that means they don't trust it either Neiman Neiman

I mean, thank you, Mr. Neiman, for last week. I don't think I'm going back to that well. Not at 16. Yeah, I don't know. I may, to be honest with you, because, listen, I think that's...

For DraftKings, right? I don't think he's going to win back-to-back. But Tom Hoagie wins Pebble Beach. Absolutely no one plays him the next week in Phoenix. He's like 6%. He's one of the best DraftKings plays on the entire board. Finishes top 10. Scotty Scheffler wins Phoenix. Absolutely no one plays him the next week at Riviera. He's like 6%. He's one of the best DraftKings plays on the entire board. Finishes top 10. Like,

Like Neiman gained nine strokes ball striking last week. And it's not like I get that he's tired thing. He's also sleeping in his own bed. He lives in Jupiter, right? So this is a perfect golf course for him and a shit field. So like, is it inconceivable that he contends again? I don't think so. Maybe like if the Louie ownership gets too crazy, I would play a little Neiman.

Okay. Now, I mean, I get that. I just, I mean, it's just a personal bias I have about guys just won the last week. I just go, you know, I'm like everybody else that just discards them and say, all right, you know, it's going to be like, that's why I was in that theory a little bit is that I'm that way too. And then you look at the guys that played Hoagie the week after he won and the guys that played Sheffler and like they won all the money. Yeah.

No, you're right. I think for DraftKings, because I did look at early ownership, no one's going on them. It's the exact same logic. So yeah, I definitely can see that. All right, let's talk about the next tier. I'm not going to list all these guys, Steve. Anywhere over 25, between 100. Who's your first guy after Lowry? So actually the first guy, the first bet I made of the week was

And it's a little unconventional because you wouldn't think this guy should be a good fit for PJ national. And he didn't play very well. The first I played was Matthew Wolf, 40, 40 to one. I, so, so here's the case I can make for Matthew Wolf. So,

everyone thinks just a bomber sprays it everywhere you know what really impressed me last fall is when he went to mayakoba and he took the driver out of his head and he was hitting driver iron over and over and just that was a week i was like all right this is not a matthew wolf week we finished i think he was leading heading into the weekend saturday got away from him but he finished i think really strong on sunday you know there were he he could have won three times last fall he was in the mix of my coba he was in the mix at shriners he in the mix of houston

And, you know, his only win came at TPC Twin Cities, a golf course with a lot of water, a lot of bunkers where you can't just spray it everywhere. And, you know, like, why can't he do something like Keith Mitchell did where he just is bomber, but, you know, he hits his irons pretty good, finds a little form of the putter, which actually he's been putting pretty well over his last 50 rounds. And he's even scrambling a little better too. So, you know, I'm always worried about, you know, he's not the best bunker player, but

It, you know, looking at some of the weather forecasts, it might not be quite as windy as what it used to be. Maybe this will be, you know, maybe that won't be quite as challenging for him, you know, as you know, maybe he'll hit a little more greens, but yeah, I mean, I, I just, I, I saw the 40 on him. I just believe in the talent and I can see like at a golf course where he's not hit half the head driver, where he can kind of just hit iron and play a little bit positional golf. I kind of like him this week.

That's a good case. It's a good case. The Mayakoba thing, it's a good point. The TPC Twin Cities thing, also a very good point. I think people probably, myself included, like he was a mess at the Amex, right? Which had a bunch of water and stuff like that too. So I think that's probably clogging people's memory. When Matthew Wolfe, I almost said Luke Wolfe, was a guy, one of my college friends. When Matthew Wolfe is on...

He is driving it long and straight, right? And we saw what he did at Wingfoot on harder golf courses. So I get it. I gravitated more quickly to Keith Mitchell, actually, because... And I talked about Mitchell a lot on my Sunday show, so I'm not going to belabor the point here. I was really bummed I missed the 40. I got a 36, which...

I don't feel great about, but I just look at the, I look at the way he's hitting the ball right now. And I think he's trending towards another win. It's kind of a, it's kind of more of a macro buy for me where I actually think Keith Mitchell's good. I look at what Keith Mitchell does and his drivers at the point where it's an absolute weapon, but he also has the combination of, he can get really hot with his putter too. Like he can putt and he has a good short game. The only thing that hasn't really clicked in his game yet is the irons. And actually that's turning around. And I think that's a good thing.

Mitchell is having these weeks where he's finishing top 10 in Phoenix when he was cursed, right? He's finishing 12th at the RSM. He's finishing top 15 every week without that spike putting week, and Mitchell has gained over 3.5 strokes putting in five of his last 13 starts, right? So when Keith Mitchell putts, and usually it's on Bermuda, he

He really pots, right? He really pots. And I think that's kind of exactly what you want to be looking for in an outright is guys that are volatile putters, but when they putt, they really do putt. So I think Keith Mitchell can win again. I really, I really do here. I love this course for him. No, I, I completely agree. I mean, and on your point with the irons, like, you know, it's, it's,

What I found just doing the research was sometimes just looking at overall strokes, gain approach numbers coming into term isn't all that predictive of who actually does well, but he's coming in, right. He's coming in riding half of the irons is gained about 0.4 strokes over the last 12 rounds. You're right with a putter. I think I remember last year, he was just complete mess for about like three or four months. He's really turned that around and he's better on Bermuda. We have, there's a lot of evidence of him really good on some hard golf courses, like a quail howl, like a TBC twin cities. Um,

Yeah, I mean, he's really good here. I wouldn't be surprised if he repeats as well, or gets another win. Okay, next guy for you. So...

I really like Alex Norton this week. Yeah, me too. Yeah. All right. Fine. First one. So, I mean, I think the case for Norton is I kind of look at PJ national and it reminds me a lot of like golf national over in France, just a lot of narrow water penal. And he's awesome there. He's got a win in two top 10s.

He's got, I think, a top five here. I keep going back to this TPC twin season, which is actually kind of like Michael Thompson won there. And then he's won here. I know Keith Mitchell is actually pretty good at TPC twin season. I think Woodland did well there last year. Like there's a little bit of a weird crossover between those two. I think it's just because it's just...

Just both. It's water. No, you're onto something. It's water. Those courts, it's a flat golf course over there too. I know it's in Minnesota, but it's a really flat golf course. No, I think you're onto something there. Yeah. Yeah. And Norton finished, I think, T3 back in 2020 at that golf course. And, you know, there's a couple other places. Like he finished T4 at Liberty National last year. That's a golf course with a lot of water too.

And this is a guy as well. There's like, if you look at the long-term stats, he's average. He's an average iron player, but he's hitting his irons really well coming in. He hit the ball. Okay. Last week. It just, he didn't seem to putt well at Riviera. Maybe that bounces back and he tends to putt pretty well in Bermuda. I like him a lot. So we, I got him at 40 to one.

I bet him to a 40 to one. He's also going to be sleeping in his own bed. He's a bears club guy. One of the guys I play with out here is, is a bears club member. And he goes out there in the winter time and plays with Norrin sometimes. And he's like, this guy lives on the driving range. Like he is such, and the stats show it too. Like he's such a grinder. And I always think that like, if Norrin hits his first tee shot in the water, like he's,

That's what I worry about a little bit with Wolf, right? That happened at the Amex, right? Noren is going to like... Because you're going to mess up. You're going to fuck up at PGA National. And I just trust that Noren's just going to keep his head to the ground and keep going. I don't know. Something about this golf course I think really, really works for him. And he's...

Another thing, same thing with Mitchell. If you look at Norrin's game at a macro level, not the best iron player. It's probably one of the weakest points of his game, if not the weakest points of his game over his career.

What is Noren doing really well right now? Like hitting his irons, right? He's actually not putting very well right now. And I trust that Noren can figure out the putter. So there we go. We're starting to agree. I mean, I always think better podcasting is when we disagree, but we're starting to agree now. Who's who, who else you got?

I went with Johnny Vegas. I actually got a good number of Vegas. I got 60 to one on him. And I mean, he's got a couple of good finishes at this tournament. I think he has a fourth back in 2017, three straight top 30 finishes. He finished T8 at Saudi a couple weeks ago, which actually I've read about Matthew Wolf actually finished T6 at Saudi. So maybe he figured things out. Steve, you're really pumping this 3M open thing. He was good there too, right? And he was good there as well. And, you know, I mean, he's...

You know, like, and I think this week too, like we've kind of been on a trend a little bit of just really good ball strikers. And we always just kind of question, well, can he make any putts? And I mean, we said that about Luke Liss at Torrey Pines and putting pretty well, Tom Hoagie's kind of been a little dicey putt. He finally made some putts at Pebble. You know, last week we were talking about Joaquin Neiman, can he putt on POA? And well, at least Thursday and Friday he could putt on POA. So yeah.

Yeah. I mean, I just, I really like him, you know, he's got some length where, you know, even though he took the driver out of his hands, like, you know, he's going to have some, some up pretty nicely. Uh, some good approaches. He just hits his irons really well. Uh, I just, I'm really digging him this week. Do we need to talk about Mito at all?

We can. I mean, like he checks every box of mine, so I'm just not betting him. I don't know. I just, I was just not feeling it this week. I don't know. I don't really know. That's all the reason you need. That's all the reason you need. You can not bet him off of principle. And I would accept that. Yeah. I mean, look like his, he has length off the tee. He is good in that good dry percentage stat. He hits his irons. Well, like he's net positive and scrambling. Like,

His putting is pretty great. Like it just, it just seems like every time we get a guy that just checks every box and especially at a golf course that is so penal. I don't know. I just feel like it's just going to go. Yeah. And this is his first time here. And I mean, I don't know, like, I mean, he could probably figure it out. Just the main goal is just don't hit it in the water here, but yeah,

I just, I don't know. I think I'm just going to pass on it. Yeah. It's interesting to me because there's some weeks where he's like 200 to one and you wouldn't even know that he existed. Right. And then there's other weeks where people just decide, uh,

time. And it's like, he's the object of everyone's desires. I actually think like he was a really good player at Riviera last week. He's under the radar. He was 6.6 K. I understand this is a worse field, but I was looking at like the guys that played Riviera and the guys that played well, uh,

Mito's price increase from 6.6 to 8.9, even the guys that played well at Revere, that's kind of a crazy increase to me for finishing 15th there. The one thing that I will say about him is, because for me, he pops from a handicapping standpoint as well.

The fact that he is overpriced, the fact that he is 8.9, maybe you can catch an ownership break, but maybe. That may be wishful thinking. If he is in the 12% to 11% range, just because the price is so high on him. Who's going to play Mito at 8.9 instead of Bez at 8K?

I don't know. I mean, if, if people love me to, again, I think they're just going to jam into a lot. Yeah. You're right. Yeah. How about, uh, how about Nikolai Hoyt guard?

What do we think about him? No. Well, I don't know if I can make a case, but I can at least make a comp for him. Do it. Go for it. He's basically doing Luke List. So, Bobber off the tee, hitting the hell out of his irons. You know, he's okay around the grade, just can't putt. I mean, the problem with, if you use data golf and look at how they calculate the sharps gained,

Basically, it's not raw strokes gained, which is good because they're playing against a lot of just jabronis over there. But they adjusted with strength of field. So if you do something really good, it doesn't quite look as good. But if you do something really bad, like, it's going to show. Like, his last tournament, they basically estimated he lost 10 strokes putting in relation to the field in two rounds, just adjusted for field strength. It's not quite as bad as what it was. But, yeah, I mean, like, he –

He bombs everywhere he hits his irons pretty good, but it's like, all right, maybe you got to prove it first. And especially if you're going to be 45, 50 to one on some books. And I don't even, what's his DraftKings price like? 7.6. Yeah. So, well, I mean, that's not as bad as what I think some of the outright prices are, but no, I'm probably just, it's more wait and see, but I can understand if you want to go for the new shiny toy on the PGR because the guy does have talent, but it just, you got to prove it first. Yeah.

I also bet Brian Harmon at 45 to one. I talked about him a bunch on the Sunday show, so I'm not, I'm not going to go super deep on him, but he's just coming off a really good ball striking performance in Phoenix. He's super accurate off the tee elite scrambler, elite Bermuda putter. One of the best putters in this field inside 10 feet. I was looking at that because I think putting in the wind is really hard and surprisingly he's

played a lot better than you would think on harder golf courses and in windy conditions. I wish the number was a little bit better, but I just look at the run that he went on last year and he's actually starting to hit the ball even better than that. We just really need the putter to come around, which I think it will. So I love Harmon this week.

You have any takes on Harmon or any other guys in this range before? There's one or two more guys that I want to talk about and ask about, but those are all the guys that I bet. Yeah, I have one more guy that under 101. I got one more guy over 101.

No, I mean, Brian Harmon, I agree. Like this is the guy who's going to keep the ball in play. You're right. He's starting to hit his irons better. He's net positive or his last 12 rounds. Now, great scrambler, pretty good putter. Trish on Bermuda does make a whole lot of bogeys. And yeah, I mean, like, I think I'm more, I think maybe looking at him at the positional market this week. I just, I don't know when I close my eyes, is he going to hold the trophy? I don't know, but I understand going for Brian Harmon. If you're looking for just,

safe, control, consistent, assuming he's hitting his irons good. Yeah, I can definitely see it. Give me the last guy that you want to bet. And then I want, there's one, there's one other guy I want to talk about in here that I want to make a weird case for. Okay. Well, I mean, so it's two guys. So number one, Chris Kirk is 75 to one. Oh, me too. All right. Well, there we go. All right. We're starting to agree. All right. There we go. Perfect.

All right. So, I mean, I think a lot of people forget he was actually in the mix last year at the Honda. He just had a really awful Sunday. I think I had a bet on him and it just, it completely fell apart on him. But, you know, that was a guy who's been hitting pretty well, the ball pretty well since coming back in the new year. But he just wasn't putting that great.

Finally, the putter kind of came around at TBC Scottsdale and he hit the ball pretty good there. Like again, like this is kind of like a like a Brian Harmon type where just not going to make a lot of mistakes off the tee. You know, you can hit yarns pretty good. You know, he's not as good of a putter as Harmon is, but he tends to do a little better on Bermuda's in his career. You know, I like I can definitely I like that play at 75 to one.

You covered everything. You laid out the case for Kirk really well, and I already talked about him a little bit on the Sunday show. So I'm going to give like – I guess this is probably a pretty bold take. I know we give some bold takes on your show. So this is my bold take of the week. I think Patrick Reed is going to play really well this week. I could just see it, man. Like –

I can make the case, but I'll let you make the case first. Okay. So here's what I was thinking with Reed. I just, I think it's a good get right spot for him. When was the only time that Patrick Reed has played well over the last six months? Bermuda. Exactly. Right. Shit field, Bermuda greens, yuck it up. Super windy course. Now I know the ball striking sucks right now,

now. But again, it's like, this is just like a yuck it up spot, right? Like there's going to be carnage everywhere. Good ball strikers are still going to be hitting it in the water. And suddenly it's like, wait, Patrick Reed is T4 right now. And it's like, yeah, what were we thinking? He's the fucking number four player in this field in windy conditions. He's the number one player in this field in scrambling. He's the number one player in this field in difficult scoring conditions, like hard golf course, shitty field, windy bunkers everywhere. Like,

I haven't made a final decision on what I'm going to do, but I can tell you one thing. He's $100 cheaper than Mito and the

early ownership is like Reed 2% and Mito 16. That's fucking stupid. That is so fucking stupid. So I, I don't know if I could fit him in on my betting card, but like, I just, this is the first week where people really, I saw the tweet, Steve, like people at Riviera really started to be like, Patrick Reed sucks. Like get this man off my television. This guy is an abomination. Like,

I could see him playing well this week. Okay. Why don't we talk about clubs and let's get into some gearhead talk right now. So, so, so what driver is Patrick Reed using right now? PXG, right? Yeah. Which is garbage. It's actually the discounted PXG. Now that's like 250 bucks. He's rocking that thing, but that's the only PXG club in his bag. And he hits it just fucking terrible. Can I swear on this show, by the way? I'm sorry. Please, please. He hits it fucking terrible.

But that's the only PXG club in his bag. I think he uses a tailor-made like three wooden hybrid. I don't recognize what the, I think it's like custom iron he uses, but I think my whole was like, all right. Cause I took the same lines thinking as you, it was like, okay, if we're putting the driver mostly in the bag this week and he's not hitting that club off, which you can do here, which you absolutely can do here.

Maybe it's not going to be so bad. I remember, I think we actually were making that argument for Adam Scott last year. He was spraying all over the place. Then we're like, okay, maybe if he just keeps the nail driver in the bag, he has to use it. So I think the problem with me, though, is he's hitting his iron so bad, too. So bad. It's so bad. Like, I was looking for just something at Riviera or what, Torrey, I think. It just...

I don't know. He shot even on day two. So he shot, he shot six over on day one and even on day two. Okay. So maybe it's just, I'd have to go look at the round by round data again. Maybe it's just the first round that kind of screwed things up. The second round wasn't much better, but it was a little better.

Yeah. I guess for me, if he starts drifting, cause he drifted last week too. I, I think before tee time, I saw him over a hundred to one. And if he starts drifting towards 75, 80, 85, like it might just be,

screw it at this point. Yeah. And I don't know if he's going to win. I see this more as like, oh, what were we thinking? Like Patrick Reed, like T7, like he's not broken guys. You know what I mean? Like he, he can still kind of scrape his round on a course that is kind of perfect for him. So I was thinking more just like,

He's 8,800 on DraftKings and he's surrounded by Cameron Young and Mito. I don't know, guys. He's an eighth of what Mito's ownership is going to be and fourth or a fifth of what Cameron Young and Aaron Wise's ownership is going to be.

I don't know. I'm just saying. Russell Knox is 15% and like $600 cheaper. That's going to go great for everybody. Anytime Russell Knox is popular, it just doesn't go well. So...

I can definitely see it. I think for DraftKings, I don't mind that play. So I think I can spend an hour. I just, man, it's so bad. It's so bad. And I want to precursor. It's like, listen, so many people have different goals in DraftKings, right? I play really aggressively. I have a really small player pool, and I'm trying to hit pretty big. If you want to...

um take a more conservative route and play more cash games and stuff like that and just try and build a bankroll week after week like yeah don't play patrick reed but the way that i view it is i look at his upside and i look at the players around him and i look at the leverage spot that we have and it's just like wow i i don't i don't know so he i we'll see my my take is he plays well this week like my take is

Cause it got to the point, like he hit a bottom where now it was like, people were tweeting about like, he is awful, awful, awful. So I think, I think when that happens, that's when it's like, all right. Okay. All right. We'll see. Um, anyone else though?

So I think the only guy over 101 I took was, again, I was trying to think of like the Keith Mitchell type of mold where just, you know, a guy without maybe even not much course history here, just maybe flying out of the rare, but I think you can do kind of similar things.

as a key Mitchell Taylor Pender at 130 to one. So he was awful last week, but listen, sometimes that happens to Riviera to some of these young guys, but before that, and he was hitting the ball really good at, he played well at Torrey played good at pebble. And, you know, we just talked about what was the only tournament that Patrick replayed? Well, it was that Bermuda tournament. Pender probably should have won that thing. Was he up like three or four? I think at some point in that tournament, yeah.

You know, I mean, course record. Yeah. I remember that. So, you know, what is Taylor Pendrith? He's a, his has, he has a lot of length. Uh, he's been hitting his irons pretty good in the short term. He puts pretty well on Bermuda. You know, his scrambling is around the green game. It's about.

average on PGA Tour, but, you know, like it's very limited sample size, but he's been playing pretty good out of bunkers. I know it's something you're looking at this week too. And, you know, I like, I just think with these, some of these rookies here that a lot of them are really talented and like your Cameron, it's going to be Cameron Young one week and then it's going to be Saheed Tagala.

And I know we had their Hayden Buckley's and, you know, I think it's going to kind of cycle around these guys all weekend, you know, in a very weak field and a guy I think is pretty talented. You know, he played pretty well at what was it? Wingfoot that us open too. And I just, yeah. So I just, I took a stab one 30 to one, just see how it goes. I like that. Cause especially cause I was, I really like usually in the six K range, um,

I have too many guys. Like there's so many guys that I like and I would play. I had a harder time with it this week. Like I don't, I don't, I just, I don't love it. I don't love what I was, what I was seeing.

I ended the last guy I bet was Kirk at 90. So the next guys I'll talk about are, are more draft Kings, but yeah, I'm always going to play Mark Hubbard. Like he's the number one bunker player in this entire field over a large sample size, elite scrambler, elite and bogey avoidance, great wedge player, great Bermuda putter. Um,

I just, I'm going to play him. Um, I, if you want to bet him at 150 to one, I don't know if I see him winning. He has, I think three top tens on the PGA tour, but he'll make the cut.

No, that's a guy I like too. Maybe we're back to seeing Doc Redman kind of be like just really good tee to green ball striker, just can't putt. I mean, his iron numbers are starting to come back and he doesn't get in too much trouble off the tee. That's another guy I could kind of see maybe making the cut. Speaking of iron play, you know whose irons have been really, really good? Who? Luke Donald. 6.4.

I know he's really good here. I think I'm going to let others just play him. Okay. So who are the guys, who are you playing under seven K then? Yeah.

You know, Ryan Armour, that's a guy who's actually been playing his irons pretty good. And I mean, I've been going back to well with his TBC Twin Cities. They even played pretty well there last year. You know, his course history just sucks, but he does have a T12. I think in his last three Honda Classics, I think he finished like T51st last year too. It's the guy who I just think that is not going to get in a whole lot of trouble off the tee. His hitting his irons pretty good. His overall Bermuda record is putting there is actually okay.

So that's probably a guy I'm going to be using a lot under 7,000 this week.

The only other guy that I wanted to talk about, I really like Kramer Hickok this week. Two appearances here, top 30 both times. Really accurate off the tee. Great short game. Fifth in this field in sand saves. 20th in scrambling. Good success on Bermuda. I trust him in the wind. He's a Texas guy. I just think he's a good play at 6.8. I mean, I was looking at Smotherman a little bit and stuff like that. But I mean, once we're down here, it's dumpster diving. And I don't have the...

I don't have the conviction that I usually do in the sixes, which probably means it's going to be a lot of Hubbard and Hickok. So that's why I was like, am I missing anyone down here? And maybe I think you've helped me a little bit out on Pendrith. Yeah. I mean, I, that was the one guy. I also looked at some other men as well, just because, I mean,

I mean, his last two appearances have been really good. The ball striking. Really good, yeah. It looks really good on paper. His around the green and putting just kind of sucks. Awful. And that's kind of like the Austin Eckrode syndrome kind of scene. Like, all right, I'm falling in love with the tee to green game, but he's a complete dope around the green. Eckrode's short game is so bad. Yeah. It is so bad. You watch it on Jaw Tracker. We joke about it in one of my group chats all the time. It's unbelievable. Like, he actually...

And this was kind of a thing with Hovland too earlier where it's a, maybe it's an Oklahoma State thing, but Hovland used to like doff chips. Like Hovland would chip in sometimes, but Hovland would also like hit a chip two feet in front of him. And he would also chip in sometimes. Eckroth like doffs chips, which is a scary point to be at.

Hopefully he figures that out because I think he's talented as hell. He just, yeah.

We'll see. Yeah, actually, I remember Hovland watching him at the U.S. Open at Pebble. I mean, he was hitting the ball great, but as soon as he got into a bunker, I think even they were saying, like, oh, he struggles in this. And, of course, he just dumped it. I think he left it in the bunker again for a second. Yeah, it's something about these Oklahoma State guys. Like, Matthew Wolfe never really had the best short game. Hovland, it's improving, at least. But even you saw it a little bit yesterday. Gooch and Norrin both have really good short games, which is –

That is true. Yes, that is very true. I think that's it, Steve.

I'm like, is there any hope on Woodland Island? Like, should I just like sell, sell, sell? I don't, I, I need something with him, but I'm, I'm starting to lose faith. I'm starting to lose a little faith on my boy. I I'm the wrong person to go to for Gary Woodland. I think your soft place to fall is my co-host over on the golf gambling podcast. He never wants to see it and give him, I just, it seems like since that hip injury, uh,

It just hasn't been the same. And I know we saw a glimpse of it at the CJ cup. He finished with T9, but just since then, it seems like every, every week it's like, all right, we're at a Woodland track. It's time to go. And he just falls flat. And yeah, he's, he's improved it. Prove it to me mode at this point. He, he misses the cut on the number a lot, which I like, but he misses the cut a lot. He misses the cut a lot. So yeah, I'm a,

TBD, but I'm starting to lose a little faith in him. Anyone else that we missed Ricky, you know, what's interesting. Like, ah, that was the problem that I had with Woodland is like, they actually, why is Woodland eight K right now? Like that's crazy to me. Um, so that makes that decision a little bit earlier, easier. Um,

I thought Fowler was going to be like 9K this week and like 40 to 1. I still don't think I could play him. He made the cut for me last week, but I don't trust him. I took a Fowler over Kuchar matchup, and let me tell you, that was a sweat, my friend. Fowler finished T55 and Kuchar finished T62. Nice pillow fight there.

Yeah, I think, I think, I think Boston capper was on the other side of that. So I'm glad you profited. Unfortunately for my cohost, he lost that. But no, I, you know, the funny thing about Fowler is if you look at his recent results, he's actually hitting the ball pretty well. He can't putt. But I think, I think that's actually like the yips putting like, like has he been changing putters like every other tournament, just trying to find something. It seems like it's been the case for the last year with him.

It's a bummer too. Cause if, if I had to, if you asked me, can you have one putting stroke on the entire PGA tour? I choose Ricky's it's so clean. He doesn't move his body or his head at all. It's just a really smooth motion. So it's a bummer to see him kind of lose his weapon, but yeah, I think we covered everyone that I want to talk about just to recap for me, Steve.

I went Louie at 20, Keith Mitchell, 36, Alex Noren, 40, Brian Harmon, 45, and Chris Kirk, 90. That's it for me. Probably a top 40 on Hubbard and Hickok and

maybe one or two more guys, but that's about it. What about you? Okay. Yeah. So I went Shane Lauer at 25 to one, Alex Noren at 40 to one, Matthew Wolfe at 40 to one, Johnny Vegas is 60 to one, Chris Kirk is 75 to one, and Taylor Penderth 130 to one. So yeah, I haven't really looked at the positional markets yet. I'll probably do that tomorrow. Once everything comes out, I can price shop a little bit, but yeah, I mean, like it's going to be interesting how I build my card this week, just because it's,

It's going to be a lot of landmines out there. So yeah, just be careful out there, boys. What are the Steve everyone where can, so you're not on Twitter. So what if people want to like talk agronomy with you? Like me, like where can, where can people find you?

Well, I mean, you get my inner circle and I can just give you my phone number and then we could just exchange messages like that. But there's a vetting process there. Like they're, they're absolutely, there's a, there, yeah, I'm, I'm not, I'm not so sure about that, but I like, I like where your head's at. Well, if, if you don't make the inner circle, then you can come join the Slack channel. It's at the bottom. The link is at the bottom of all my articles. And it's a really good group of guys. It can be like 250, 300 guys in there that we just,

we sweat each other's bets. We throw out stuff during the weekend. There's a lot of shtick that goes onto it. It's great. And you know, you can find my column every Sunday and Tuesday over at sports gambling podcast.com. I put my Sunday preview column up then, and I put my picks up on Tuesday and then Boston capper and I record the golf gambling podcast Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, we're going to be recording right after this. We're in top DFS and our outright bets right after this. And yeah. Thanks for having me on. I really appreciate it, Andy.

Anytime, buddy. We will do it again many times in the future, I'm sure. And it's good to see you, buddy. Yeah, good to see you too. Thanks.

All right, that will do it. Special thanks to Twitter list Steve Shermer. Please don't forget if you haven't already like rate review, subscribe on Apple podcast and Spotify leaving a review on Apple podcast really takes about approximately 37 seconds. And it really helps me out more than you know, especially since I'm

I want to keep everything completely free. Look out for me later this week on the scramble with Rick Gaiman round one matchups for odds checker. We'll be out Wednesday morning as well. Midway report will be out on Friday and a special deep dive on the Saudi stuff with Rick later this week on his podcast feed. Have a great rest of the week. Good luck with your picks and we'll see you next time. Cheers. Yeah.

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