Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
All right. We are back. First Sunday pod in a while. I think it's been, I don't even remember to be honest. I've been doing a bunch of traveling and this was the first week in a couple where I had the time to sit down and really grind on this course and
Of course, it's a week with a course that we have absolutely zero data on, and there's really not much you can find out about this place on the internet. I took my ass off and found some stuff, but in comparison to Caves Valley, for example, the last time we were in this position...
There's way more stuff online about caves Valley than I was able to find with this course, but we will get to that soon.
I'm recording this on Saturday. I like to spend all day Sunday watching football with my buddies. So the third round of the Shriners has just wrapped up for me. I cannot believe I got off shank. I was just joking about this with my buddy Luke. He was our favorite play for two weeks in a row. I loved him last week. We were all over this guy. And then we jump ship and here he is. So a lead.
I think there's a lesson in this. If you like a guy and you are seeing something in the numbers where you think that there's a discrepancy between what you are seeing and with a player, I mean, with what the market is seeing, especially if it's a cheapo guy,
Stay the course until the wheels fall off. I saw something in the numbers with Shank. It didn't come to fruition at the Fortinet or Sanderson, but that's way too small of a sample size. And especially if they are...
cheaper. It's a really, really small investment to make long-term. Even someone like Gooch is a good example of this. I'm consistently higher on Gooch than the market. I think he's absolutely awesome. And say that Gooch is on average 60 to one every week,
He's often a lot lower than that. Sometimes he's a little higher. So I'll say 60 to play it safe. Normally for 60 to one guy, I'd put 0.15 units to win nine, right? So if I put one point, if I put 0.15 units on Gooch every single week that he played, I
I'd have 60 tournaments before it was no longer profitable for me if Gooch won. Does that make sense? It's different than if you say, I'm high on Xander. I'm going to bet Xander at 18 to one every single week. You can't do that. That gets really expensive quickly. But on some of these cheaper guys...
And I think you could even throw Mito into this category as well, because a lot of people probably feel this way about Mito, where they're just so much higher on the guy than market. Although I got to say, the market's catching up to Mito a little bit at this point for who the guy actually is. My first foray into the Mito thing this week, he was awesome on Thursday. I was tracking him closely. He absolutely stripes it.
That is undeniable. And everyone was tweeting about him on Thursday and by Friday afternoon. He was completely irrelevant for the rest of the tournament. That tends to be how it goes. But the point still stands. Like if you are really high on Mito or Gooch or
or Adam Schenck, and these guys are 60, 70, 80. In Schenck's case, I was betting him at 160. If you see something that the market doesn't with one of those guys, you have a pretty long runway if they are at those type of odds before it becomes a very unprofitable endeavor because of how big the win will be if they do hit.
So I got to get better at staying the course with some of these guys. Sam Burns is actually another pretty good example of this. I think in general, golf Twitter was way higher on Sam Burns than the market at the beginning of last season. And tons of people were hammering him every week and saying,
Then he had like two or three tournaments in a row where he was terrible. And most people hopped off, myself included. And then he wins at 90 to one shortly after. So I think there's a lesson in that. And hopefully Matt Wolf just wins and I don't have to feel any Adam Shank pain.
Or hopefully Wolf at least just hangs around until the back nine where I have some hedging opportunity. Like I actually got to watch some of the golf this tournament. I didn't get to watch any of the Sanderson farms. Burns is playing out of his mind right now. I know that's not like a hot take, but I test wise,
He just looked like a different guy out there compared to the Sam Burns I was used to seeing. He's kind of leveling up right before our eyes. And he's just playing with so much confidence right now. The way I kind of like to think about it sometimes is like if aliens who didn't understand golf and they were just dropped in Las Vegas at TPC Summerlin and you asked them,
Who's the best at that thing that all those guys are doing hitting that little white ball? I think with no context, the aliens would be like, yeah, that Sam Burns guy is so much better at this thing than anyone else.
Um, and that's what it certainly felt like watching on Saturday. He is hitting the shit out of the ball right now. Like he easily left six strokes out there on Saturday. Shank even said it during his post route on Saturday. He was like, yeah, I know the scores won't tell you this, but Sam Burns played way better than me. He was unbelievable. Uh,
He really could be leading this tournament by five. So that doesn't make me feel incredibly optimistic about my Wolf ticket, but we'll see. Winning twice in a row is really hard. Okay, let's take a quick break and then get to the CJ Cup.
Thrive Fantasy app. Come prop up on Thrive Fantasy this football season. Thrive Fantasy is a daily fantasy sports and esports app for player props. With Thrive, you can eliminate countless hours of research and focus only on the top tier athletes that have the biggest impact on the game. You get to choose 10 out of the 20 available products.
player props to build your lineup for the NFL PGA. It's only five out of 10. Each prop is assigned a fantasy value for both the over and the under based on how likely it is to hit. If you hit the most props, you rack up the most points and you win a share of the prize pool. Thrive has over $140,000 guaranteed in prizes for every NFL game. The contest that I will be playing in every single week
is Thrive's featured 100K guaranteed contest. That is only $20 to enter and first place takes home 20K. But if you use promo code Andy, that is promo code Andy, made it very, very easy for you. When you sign up today, you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $100. So whatever you deposit,
will match you if you want to deposit 20 to enter the feature contest. An extra 20 will show up in your account because that is how we do things at Thrive Fantasy. It's very simple. They have golf. They have football. I plan on playing both, but basically you get to pick your favorite over-unders on a golfer or football players fantasy points, enter your lineup into a contest, play against people like me, and if you choose correctly, you win. It's very simple.
Easy and simple to play. And with promo code Andy, you are getting free money to play with. So once again, download Thrive Fantasy on the App Store or visit thrivefantasy.com. Make sure you type in Andy under the promo code when you sign up.
And boom, double your money in your account from what you deposit. You're good to go. And you can play against people like me to win even more money. So thrivefantasy.com, Thrive Fantasy app on the Apple Store. Use promo code Andy for a 100% instant first match on your first deposit. Let's get back to the show. All right. CJ cut.
This tournament has only existed for four years. The first three editions were played at Nine Bridges Golf Club on Jeju Island in South Korea and were won by Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, and Justin Thomas again. Then last year, because of the pandemic, it was played at Shadow Creek in Las Vegas and Jason Kokrak won. Xander came in second.
And now it's staying in Vegas, but moving to a different club, the Summit Club. And I think because it's staying in Vegas, which is a hell of a lot more convenient than being in South Korea for these guys, we have an awesome field this week. There's only 78 guys in the field. It's a no-cut event.
And I counted 23 out of the top 30 players in the world are going to be there. Rom, Cantlay, and Bryson are really the only big, big names that won't. Rom, of course, is still reeling from Scottie Sheffler kicking his ass once again, and he'd rather play in Spain against a bunch of scrubs.
Anyway, it's an awesome field, probably the best that we will see all swing season. I'm incredibly pumped. Guys like Matthew Wolfe and Matthew Fitzpatrick are alternates at this tournament, but Tom Hoagie and Keith Mitchell are in the field. That makes very little sense to me. But anyway, let's talk about the course. The Summit Club. It's a par 72 measuring 7,459 yards.
Not going to play that long because we're at altitude. It's designed by Tom Fazio in 2017. I want to start here. It is a Discovery Lands Company property, which basically means that it is an awesome place. For those that don't know, Discovery Land Company was founded in 1994 by a big time real estate developer named Mike Meldman.
And he was already this big player in investing in club communities and resorts and stuff like that. Basically, he goes into these incredible areas, whether they be Montana or the Bahamas or Las Vegas or Palm Springs or the Hamptons. They just built one in the Hamptons. And he builds these luxury residential communities where you buy a house there and then you're part of the golf club and everything's all inclusive.
I've never played a Discoveryland company course. They're very hip. They're very new money. I have a couple friends that are at the Yellowstone Club in Montana and Gaza Ranch in Idaho. DJ, by the way, has a place there. And then the Madison Club in Palm Springs.
The golf trip that you used to see Spieth and Fowler and JT go on together, that's at a Discovery Land Company property in Bakers Bay. All those guys are buddy-buddy with Mike Meldman. That's why Spieth is playing, by the way, even though his wife is incredibly pregnant and he said he was going to take the false one off. But anyway, from what I've heard from friends that have played some of these courses, they
they are all stunning pieces of property. Uh, he spends a ton of money on the golf course, usually hires Tom Fazio and you can play barefoot on the course. There's no tee times, uh,
At the Madison Club where the Kardashians have a home and Tom Brady has a home and Irving Azoff has a home, they have classic rock music playing everywhere on the course. The courses are always kept in immaculate condition. My cousin is on the groundskeeper staff for Silo Ridge in Connecticut, which is a Discovery Land Company property. And that place is just absolutely pristine. If you've got a place...
on a Discoveryland coverty property, you're probably doing something right. So it's not surprising to hear that Morikawa makes his home there. I'm sure there are definitely more famous people than Morikawa that also have a home at the Summit Club. Morikawa is just the only one that I know. But
I'm quite certain that Xander plays that course, him and Morikawa are buddies. And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Kokrak and Kevin Na and Matt McNeely and Aaron Wise and all the other Vegas guys were also pretty familiar with the Summit Club. I say all this about Discovery Land Company and Mike Meldman just to vamp a little bit because...
There's really nothing on this course online. I mean, there's a couple pictures, a couple very brief reviews that I was able to dig up, but
This isn't a situation like Caves Valley where they have this very extensive website, tons of photos, whole descriptions. It was a lot easier to get info on Caves Valley than it is on the Summit Club. Caves Valley was a private course, but their website was really good. And it just felt like a lot of people knew about the course or had played there. I was able to DM with some people and get some info there.
That's not the case with the Summit Club. And that's not to say it's some Uber exclusive course like Pine Valley or Cypress Point. If you have the money, you can belong to the Summit Club. In fact, Meldman started places like this. So new money people that maybe had wanted to be a member at some of the old money places had a place to go and spend their money. But I
I don't have a ton of uber rich friends in Las Vegas. And this company has been so, so successful that they don't need to sell you a bag of goods online. They have a great reputation. Their name does. So they don't need to over promote their golf course on the internet. So I scoured everything and there's not a lot.
And I'm sure that a ton more information will turn up on Monday and Tuesday. My buddy Chris Powers at Golf Digest is going to be there on site. Rick Gaiman, who's coming on the Tuesday podcast, will be there. More information is going to come out once the media gets there and players get there. But this is a Sunday podcast, and I know people like how it comes out on Sunday afternoon, so they can kind of get a head start.
So we're going to do our best here. I'm going to give you absolutely everything that I've got on this course. All right. So it's a Tom Fazio course, as I've mentioned. And in my opinion, Fazio is a pretty easy designer to figure out. There are a lot of through lines in all of Fazio courses. And I know I've talked about this a lot before, even recently on the Caves Valley podcast. So I'll just give the quick recap. Fazio.
Fazio has designed Congaree, which had the Palmetto Championship, Shadow Creek, which had last year's CJ Cup and is probably the most obvious comp to Summit Club. He designed Caves Valley, not a terrible comp, Kasumigaseki, where we had the Olympics, Conway Farms, and he's done redesigned work on Quail Hollow as well. So there are a lot of similarities with all of those courses and
A lot of the same players tend to pop up at all of them. I would say that his staple is kind of deep bunkers,
large undulating greens. Uh, his courses are often in just impeccable condition, very well manicured. And from all of the pictures I've seen, summit club is no different than that. The only thing that kind of sticks out to me about Fazio courses is that they often seem to favor long and accurate drivers of the golf ball, uh,
Rory McIlroy, for example, dominates on Quail Hollow, top five at Kasumi Gusecki, top five at Caves Valley, right? And I think the reason for that is Fazio courses often feature these
intricate and menacing fairway bunkers and kind of curving long par fours and par fives and kind of dogleg holes. But if one has the length off the tee to cut some of those corners and carry the fairway bunkers, it's a lot easier to play offense from there on out.
And I remember with Caves Valley, when I looked at all the pictures and read all the stuff online, I remember that I was wrong that week in thinking that it would play a little bit harder than people thought because I looked at all of the reviews and the pictures and the length and the specs of the course and
And I was like, wow, this actually looks kind of challenging. But I think what I underestimated with Fazio courses is they seem to be the type of courses that would be just fucking impossible for like amateurs and 20 handicaps, but really, really gettable for pros, if that makes sense. Now, obviously, you could say that about every course.
But I think the difference here is far more pronounced because when an amateur steps up to the tee on a Fazio course,
They're thinking about all those fairway bunkers and hazards, and it could be really intimidating off the tee if you are not a good driver of the ball or don't have a lot of length off the tee. I've played a ton of Fazio courses. Karsten is probably my favorite, where all the Oklahoma State guys played. And it's really visually intimidating if you can't carry the ball 300 yards in the air.
But it's a totally different situation, I think, on some of these courses if you can carry the ball 300 yards off the tee. And if you can, then the course actually really opens up for you. And I say all this because I have no reason to believe that this course is going to be the least bit difficult for any of these players. Of course,
Part of what happened at Caves is it was just really wet and courses that are soft tend to yield a lot of birdies. We're in the desert now, so I would expect slightly more firm and fast conditions, but very much like Shadow Creek, it's
It's more of a lush green parkland course with kind of a desert background. There's plenty of irrigated grass here and there's a lot of raised elevated greens and kind of distinct bunkering. But I think it's going to be pretty easy. Also, especially because like I've talked about,
it's a discovery land company property it's essentially a resort uh it was built for rich people to enjoy themselves not to challenge professional golfers now from the back tvs it's obviously a real golf course almost 7500 yards is you know not short by any means but still keep in mind it's at altitude uh and again caves valley was that long and two guys shot 27 under there
Um, so you're going to be able to hit driver here a lot. I think guys are going to be able to carry most of the trouble off the tee and put themselves in pretty good position. It feels to me like a 20 under event, at least, um, the CJ cup last year at shadow Creek was one at 20 under, uh, and this course has
I mean, shadow is shadows, probably the best comp. Uh, but this course looks easier than shadow Creek. In my opinion, I could be wrong. Uh, but that's what it looks like to me. If I had to guess, I would say that this plays a little bit harder than shadow Creek and maybe a little bit easier than caves Valley, uh, only because of the weather. So maybe like 22 under sounds about right. Um,
I think anywhere in that 18 to 24 range makes some sense this week. But anyway, I did make a model, but I kept it pretty simple this week. And
I relied very heavily on my Kasumi Gaseki, my Caves Valley, and my Shadow Creek models, and a little of my Quail Hollow model. I've actually had a lot of success handicapping Fazio courses. Like Quail Hollow was my biggest week of the season last year, and the Olympics were kind to us with Xander. Obviously, we had the near miss on Bryson at Caves Valley. So there's kind of a couple of things that I think you want to look at here.
Mainly driving distance, again, greens and regulation with it being kind of if you can carry a lot of the trouble off the tee, it not being that difficult off the tee. If you have some length, it really can turn into a second shot golf course.
sand saves because there's so many bunkers on these courses. Par five scoring. It's a stock par 72 and birdies are better gains again, because I think that you're going to be able to score here and you want to be looking for guys that are more comfortable and easier scoring conditions.
Mainly length off the tee and scoring stats are kind of what I'm looking most closely at. Uh, I'm not looking at any of the proximity distances because the par threes are pretty evenly dispersed. Um,
There's one really short one, a really long one, a kind of short one and a medium length one. There's only three really long par fours and the par fives are kind of long, like 14 will definitely be reachable. That one is only 552, but the sixth hole is 614 yards. Um, the third hole is 597 yards and the 18th hole is 579. Um,
It doesn't really seem like any of the par five, par four, excuse me, are drivable. Although five is three 62 and 12 is three 55. So you never know what the altitude and sometimes they like to push the tees up, but yeah,
It feels to me a little bit like Kasumi Gusecki, where you're going to have a lot of wedges and a couple long irons. But even without an accurate dispersion rate, I'm just going to target good iron players in kind of broader stats and make up for my usual proximity stuff with other approach stats like greens and regulation gained and opportunities gained.
So essentially, after going through what worked best at Caves Valley, what worked best for me at Shadow Creek, what worked best for me at Kasuma Gusecki, I'm looking for guys who are long off the tee, good iron players, dominate par fives, and make a bunch of birdies.
Fazio tends to have larger greens. The only real short game stat that I'm looking at is sand saves because there are just a ton of bunkers on this course, but I'm not super concerned with short game here or really accuracy here. I'm not necessarily saying it's bombing gouge, but the rough does not look very penal. So as long as you can keep it out of the desert, you should be fine.
So I correlated my model most similarly to what would have worked out the best at Shadow Creek, a little Kasuma Gusecki, and a little Caves Valley. And here were the top 10 guys for me that rated out the best. Brooks Koepka,
Louis Oosthuizen, Sam Burns, Xander Shoffley, Jason Kokrak, Jonathan Vegas, Rory McIlroy, Victor Hovland, Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson were the top 10 guys. No real surprises.
I mean, a little surprising to see Louis close to the very top again. He was actually at the very top of my Shriners model as well. I think he was right behind Abe Anser, but he rated out quite well for me there as well. Just looking at why, he's awesome on par fives. He hits a ton of greens, makes a ton of birdies. So even if
Louis doesn't have the length off the tee of kind of what you think of with a prototypical Fazio player. He's so solid across the board. And for the reputation that he is a better tough course player than an easy course player, Louis rates out so well in some of these scoring stats. It's actually kind of remarkable.
Brooks being number one for me, my numbers have been really high on Brooks lately, even dating back into the FedEx Cup playoffs. They were really high on him last week. I bet him last week. And although he doesn't have a ton of experience on Fazio courses, like he doesn't ever play Quail Hollow, didn't play the Olympics, fine at Caves Valley, he is the exact same
type of player that I would expect to dominate these types of courses because he's very long off the tee. And again, Brooks has a reputation for being better on difficult courses. That may be true, but I think you're fooling yourself if you think his game doesn't cater to easy scoring condition as well. He rates out so well in these scoring stats. He makes a ton of birdies, dominant on par fives, gives himself a ton of chances, and you know,
he won the CJ Cup before at 22 under back when it was in Korea so there you go I don't know if I will be back on him he did not hit the ball that great through three rounds at the Shriners and
I think when the Shriner stats get loaded in, he will drop probably below Sam Burns is my guess. I'm interested to see what he does on Sunday. But, you know, I just gave this rant at the top about how if your numbers are showing you something about a player, stay the course. The problem is betting Brooks every week at 20 to one that gets a little more expensive than throwing .05 of a unit on Adam Schenck every week.
So we'll see. But the guys that it spit back out made a ton of sense with what I imagine to be good players on Fazio courses and the summit club in general burns the way that he's hitting the ball right now should be.
Close to the top of any model, any way that you run things. And then it's a bunch of the usual suspects in terms of guys that you would think would be awesome and have been awesome on Fazio courses. Long and accurate drivers of the golf ball. I mean, seven of the top 10 are Brooks, Burns, Zander, Kokrak, Rory, Hovland, DJ, right?
that is just a murderer's row of guys that can literally tear a course to shreds if their driver is on point. And even guys like Paul Casey and Justin Thomas, who are kind of hovering right outside of the top 10, both of those guys have been incredible on Fazio courses and are still well above average in terms of their driving. Now, when I ran one with all of the Fazio courses, I
the guys who have performed the best. Um, and I gave the heaviest weight to shadow Creek and kind of did my best to estimate, estimate with Kasuma Gusecki. Um, because I still think those are the two best comps, but the guys that have been the best on Fazio courses are, um,
Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Victor Hovland, who, by the way, played a Fazio course that happens to look a lot like this one every single day in college. Sergio Garcia, Xander Shoffley, Joaquin Neiman, Jason Day, Ricky Fowler, Taylor Gooch, who was great at
at shadow and has been really good at quail as well. Again, not the least bit surprising. These are the types of players that you would expect to play well on these courses based on their skillset. The guys that, the guys that popped up for me the most in my composite, Justin Thomas, Xander Shoffley, Rory McIlroy, Victor Hovland.
Again, like Xander, Rory, Hovland, they're the most prototypical Fazio players out there. And then guys like Sergio and Neiman and Jason Day when Jason Day was good. And even Hideki and Justin Thomas. It's all the same guys and the same types of guys that are popping up. So do with that what you will. Okay, early leans.
Let's talk about Xander first. Let's get Xander out of the way because I think Xander is going to be a very popular choice this reason. This is clearly a
a fantastic course for Xander. And as a Las Vegas resident, there's probably a pretty good chance that he has played here once or twice or many times. Um, from a course fit standpoint, he's plenty long off the tee. He's one of the best far par five players on tour. And he's one of the best bunker players on tour. He won the Olympic gold medal on a Tom Fazio course. That seems very similar to this. He finished second at shadow Creek, uh,
he wasn't great at caves Valley and he hasn't been that great at quail hollow, but his game clearly fits well with Fazio courses because he drives it long and straight. Um, and you know, if the course is super easy, that's fine. He's won tournaments at 23 under before. And if the course plays harder, that's fine too. He finishes in the top 10 at every, at the U S open every single year. Um, so the last time we saw him, he was, he was awesome at the Ryder cup. Um,
I can't. And, you know, listen, I, I think that it's tough kind of analyzing some of these guys coming off the Ryder cup and coming off a month or so where they haven't played a competitive stroke play tournament. I was a little surprised to see him play this week. Um, because I know that he's playing next week at the Zozo in Japan. Um,
And I think he's going to win the Zozo. I know how much being in Japan and playing in Japan means to him because of his heritage. And I think the biggest golf bet that I will ever make, barring he looks absolutely horrendous this week, will be on Xander to win the Zozo. Can he go back to back?
Fuck yeah. He's the fifth ranked player in the world and he's coming into his own from a confidence standpoint. The win at the Olympics got the monkey off his back and that Ryder Cup experience. I know I'm being a homer right now, but he's just he's really he really became a fan favorite there. Just being there and noticing it. And I followed Xander around.
three times for two-day stretches where I watched every single shot in the last couple of months. First at Torrey Pines, then at the Northern Trust, then at the Ryder Cup. And I don't think that he necessarily played better at the Ryder Cup than he did at Torrey Pines, where he led the field in ball striking, or at the Northern Trust, where he shot a 61. But he played more confidently. And
I don't know. It's match play. I get it. And I don't necessarily know what to do with some of these guys coming off a Ryder Cup because...
In one case, you could say that I feel like this is kind of a rite of passage for these guys, and it's going to give them a ton of confidence that they belong, and maybe they'll get a little bump in the next couple of tournaments. But Harris English and Scotty Scheffler both missed the cut last week, so I guess it could go either way, where maybe I am looking at it wrong, and that first tournament back is more of a letdown spot than a bump spot.
But I'm rambling at this point. Xander's on my short list. I think you'd be silly not to consider him this week. And then it's tough this week. I think this is going to be a really good week to kind of let the odds and the pricing dictate who you are on because I like Justin Thomas a lot this week. I like Rory a lot this week. I like Morikawa a lot this week.
I think the guy that I like just a little bit more than all of them is actually DJ. Um, and DJ, um,
He fits the mold really well of a Fazio player, obviously. He's very long off the tee. He makes a ton of birdies. Incredibly underrated putter. Dominates on par fives. He's played Quail Hollow once and finished runner-up. Didn't play in the Olympics or at Shadow Creek. Sixth at Caves Valley, though, so...
He doesn't have a ton of Fazio experience, but essentially every time he's played a Fazio course, he's been unbelievable. And he's another guy where he was unbelievable at the Ryder Cup. He's coming off a 5-0 record at the Ryder Cup.
which is interesting because coming into the Ryder Cup, he was not playing well at all. He had lost over a stroke on approach in three straight starts. The ball striking was pretty terrible, and he was kind of just putting out of his mind. Like he gained 9.5 strokes putting at the Tour Championship. And DJ is a streaky putter, and he's putting really, really well right now.
He putted really well at the Ryder Cup, and we saw the ball striking come back from at the Ryder Cup as well. And when he's making putts and hitting the ball like that, you see what happens. So I still think that...
DJ ceiling, even though we haven't seen a ceiling performance from him in a stroke play tournament recently. I think it's still right up there with your ROMs and your Morikawa's and your Bryson's. I think DJ's best is still right up there with all of those guys best. And despite the fact that he had a pretty quiet season.
Um, I think he's going to have a much better season this year and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a major as well. So he's, he's on my short list as a bet this week.
Going down a little bit lower, some of the guys that I like that I think are kind of going to be in that 30 to 50 range. I like Cam Smith here, despite not being long off the tee. He actually rates out incredibly well for me because he makes a ton of birdies. He's really good on par fives, really good out of the bunkers. He was top 10 at the Olympics, middle of the pack at Caves Valley, 11th at Shadow Creek, and 34th.
at Caves Valley, as I just mentioned. Okay. But that was coming off a playoff loss where he made absolutely everything. He's coming off a huge spike putting week. So I think the fact that he finished top 11 at both Kasuma Gusecki and Shadow Creek, which I happen to believe are the most similar courses to Summit Club, I think that's something with Cam Smith. And
you know, last time we saw him, he didn't hit the ball great at the tour championship, but again, enough time has passed now that I think you kind of got to throw last season stuff a little bit out the window. He's had over a month off, um,
to figure things out. And, you know, I'm not going to, when somebody's coming off a bad ball striking week, uh, like a week ago, it's concerning. But when their last stroke play event was over a month ago, like they've been figuring stuff out, you know, their game's probably in a different place for better or worse than it was last time we saw them. Um, a month is a lot of time in golf. So, um,
I think Cam Smith is live here. He's on my short list. I'm just not sure how I want to structure my betting card because I want to be able to bet one or two of the favorites here, but I like Cam Smith a lot. Hatton is somebody I was looking at as well. He models out okay here. Nothing really stands out statistically. He's kind of slightly above average to around average at
most of the metrics I'm looking at. Obviously, the strength of his game is his irons, and he was third at Shadow Creek, where he gained 12.4 strokes ball striking. Also finished second at the Palmetto. Another Fazio course that I don't think is the best comp because it's Bermuda, and there's no rough on that course, but I think
I think it's still worth noting that he's never finished worse than third on a Fazio course in his career. Actually, I think he played Wells Fargo once and finished like 40th.
Um, but he's coming off a second place finish at the Alfred Dunhill links. That's not going to show up in, in fantasy national. And prior to that, he wasn't very good at the Ryder cup, but he seemed to find some form, um, after, and you combine that with how good his Fazio history is. And I think Hatton makes a lot of sense. It's kind of number dependent for me, but I could see myself getting there, uh, in terms of, uh,
I'm going to spotlight three kind of longer shot guys that I like a lot. And then we'll get out of here. I haven't, there are a bunch of guys playing that made the cut at the Shriners that I haven't really done dug into yet because I wanted to see how they did offensively.
on Sunday, but for what we have now, I'll give you three more guys that I think, uh, make a lot of sense at the bottom of the board and, and definitely will be a top 20 plays for me. I believe top, not can't, can't really do top 40 plays this week at, uh, if,
a tournament where there's 78 players in them. But Gary Woodland, I like Gary Woodland a lot. He models out really well for this course. He pretty much ranks above average in every metric that I'm looking at this week. He gives himself a ton of birdie looks and he's very long off the tee.
Now, he was dead last at Shadow Creek last year, but his game was not in a good place at all. He's been very good at Quail Hollow. He was fifth this year and a fourth previously in six appearances. He definitely has the prototypical Fazio skill set that I'm looking for this week. Now, he missed the cut on the number at the Sanderson Farms, but his ball striking was really good. He gained a
a stroke off the tee and .4 strokes on approach. He lost .9 around the green and .2 putting. I think Woodland has a real bounce back season this year. It's why I drafted him in my season long fantasy league. And I think this is a perfect course for him. I may even end up betting him outright because when he's playing his best, he's shown the ability to take down the best players in the world. Whereas the next two guys that I'm going to mention, who I also really like,
I don't know if they can win this tournament, but I'm in on Gary Woodland this week. Probably going to bet him at whatever odds he's at, which is hard for me to predict in this field. I really don't know what you put a player like Gary Woodland at in this field, who objectively hasn't been that good last year, but is still a major champion who's won some big tournaments before and is a good fit for this course. I think...
I think you got to give him worse odds than like Sergio. Um, Sergio has been a lot better than him. Um, he probably deserves to be in that math McNeely, Keegan Bradley, Tringali, Johnny Vegas range. And if he is Woodland would be my favorite bet.
Speaking of Johnny Vegas, Johnny Vegas rated out so well for me here, and it makes a lot of sense. He's awesome off the tee, one of the longest drivers of the ball on tour. He makes a ton of birdies, and he's awesome in easy scoring conditions.
Um, he hits a ton of greens and regulation and dominates on par fives. Um, he's 38th at caves Valley, 16th at Kasumi Gusecki, second at the Palmetto, uh, decent at quail hollow. He's made five cuts in one top 10 and seven appearances. And Vegas is another guy where we haven't seen him since the BMW, which was over a month ago. And, uh,
that's fine. I think he's still an excellent option this week. I know he's okay at the BMW, but a lot of time has passed. And I don't know if he can win this tournament in this good of a field, but I will absolutely be using him in DraftKings and have a top 20 on him because of how good the course fit is. Listen, anytime you are on a course where you need to make a bunch of birdies and you can hit driver a lot, just play Johnny Vegas. It's really not that difficult. Like
Like already this year, second at the Puerto Rico open ninth at the Byron Nelson, second at the Palmetto 11th at the John Deere second at the three I'm open. Right. So, you know, just play them on those kind of wide open birdie fests. And then the last guy I'll highlight is,
I like Matt McNeely coming off a miscut on the number last week in, in Vegas. I think a lot of people expected him to play well last week because he is a Vegas guy. Um, but I think this is a much better course for McNeely than the one we saw at the Shriners. He's great off the tee. He's plenty long. He makes a ton of birdies. Uh,
above average in pretty much every metric that I'm looking at this week. He was bad at the BMW, um, and he missed a cut at the Wells Fargo in his only appearance. But despite that poor history on Fazio courses in a very limited sample size, I still think that he has all of the tools to be an awesome Fazio player. He, he,
like I say, he missed the cut on the numbers at the Shriners, but he gained 2.1 strokes off the tee gained on approach as well. Just couldn't putt at all. And Matt McNeil is a really good putter. Um, now is Matt McNeil ready to win this type of event? Um,
I'm not sure about this event, but I certainly do feel like he's ready to win this year and that he will win this year. He's a Vegas guy, as I mentioned, so I have to assume that he has played this course before and, you know, so far in a very limited sample size in 2021.
He looks like he's improving. He already looks like he's becoming a better player right before our eyes. He finished second at the Fortinet. We had a real chance to win that tournament and miss a cut at the Shriners, but still hit the ball really well. So I think McNeely is a great option this week, both for DraftKings and a potential top 20. I think that will do it for me. Yeah, I think we talked about the main guys that I wanted to highlight and
Of course, check back in. Make sure you listen to my Tuesday pod with Rick Gaiman. Rick Gaiman will be
Rick Gaiman is walking the course on Tuesday. He will be at this tournament all week, so I'm sure that he will have a bunch of incredible insight for us. And I'm very excited for that conversation. I'll probably have things a lot more solidified. Like I said, I think a lot more stuff is going to come out about this course on Monday and Tuesday when the players get there and the media gets there.
Um, but we did the best with what I have and I I've had a lot of success handicapping these Fasio courses. So I think I'm on the right track as early as it is, and we'll see how it goes as the week progressive. But those are kind of the guys I'm looking at, at, uh, at this current moment, Xander DJ, Cam Smith, Hatton, Gary Woodland, Vegas, McNeely, um,
interested in JT, interested in Morikawa, interested in Rory, but you can't bet them all. So, all right. Special thanks to Rotoballer. Special thanks to Thrive Fantasy.
I will see you guys on Tuesday. Best of luck with your football bets tomorrow and your Shriners bets as well. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are
or just the beginning. Getting into a crash is another way that your world can be turned upside down. Your vehicle may not be the only thing that gets damaged in that crash. You can face a life altering injury
or even death. But you're not the only one that can face those consequences. Your decision to drink and drive can permanently impact not just your world, but someone else's world as well. Whether you injure them or leave their loved ones grieving. The next time you're out drinking, call a ride share, a taxi, a sober friend,
or a designated sober driver. The only decision that will change your world for the better is the decision to call for a sober ride. Drive sober or get pulled over. Paid for by NHTSA.