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the pup. That's the important part. Use promo code, pick the pup for a 125% bonus on your first deposit at betus.com. Let's get to the show. All right. I'm recording this at 10 a.m. East Coast time. I'm back in New York. Feels great to be back. Miss my family, miss my dog, miss my friends out here, missing New York and Long Island area golf. So it's great to be back, but I want to try and keep this under an hour or so because I'm on a
about seven podcasts this week. So you will have ample opportunity to listen to me if you want to. And I feel like if I'm able to make these preview shows a little bit shorter, instead of getting so deep into the weeds and telling you all about these tiny little nuggets that I found,
I'm probably going to lose some people along the way because a lot of the stuff I find, it's really interesting, but in the grand scheme of things, it does not actually really matter whatsoever. I know that most people that do listen to this or from what they have told me really do appreciate the in-depth nature that I go into. So I'm not leaving any of that behind, but I still think you can pack a lot into under an hour and still deliver that in a concise way. And I have a lot of
of stuff on the open. So I'm just going to try and give you what I think is the most important stuff. And if you have any questions, by all means, always feel free to reach out on Twitter. ADP lack sports on Twitter is my username. Shoot me a follow. If you haven't already, I always try and answer DMS even in a really busy week like this. So I'm
Let's get right into it. I'm not going to talk about the John Deere at all. I will say, barring absolute disaster today, it's going to be a very good week for me, both in DraftKings and in the betting market. Could be massive, depending on who wins today. But as I always say with this stuff, no one cares.
No one cares. I mean, I think some people that listen probably do want to know that the players I am giving out actually do well. So I guess some people probably care. I got some very nice messages saying, hey, all the players that you were talking about this week, they're all playing well. Given the amount of time that I put into this, I would hope that that happens sometimes.
It doesn't happen as much as you would think, but I guess it happens enough for it to be kind of a long-term successful endeavor for me. But no one cares. I don't want to talk about John Deere. Let's do the British Open. Let's do the British Open. Okay. So I'm going to give you the former winner. Let's start here. I'm going to give you guys the former winners of the British Open and their corresponding official world golf ranking.
Last 10 years. Shane Lowry, 2019. He was 33rd in the world. 2018, Francesco Molinari, 15th. 2017, Jordan Spieth. He was 3rd.
2016, Henrik Stenson. He was sixth, 30-1. He won that, I believe. And 2015 at St. Andrews was Zach Johnson. He was 25th in the world. 2014, Rory McIlroy. He was eighth in the world. 2013, Phil Mickelson at Muirfield. He was sixth in the world. 2012, Ernie Els.
Remember, that was that year that Adam Scott completely gagged it. He was 40th in the world. 2011 at Royal St. George's was Darren Clark. He was 111th in the world. So the only guy outside of the top 100 in the world, actually the only guy outside of the top 60 in the last 10 years happened at Royal St. George's in 2011. It was Darren Clark. And then in 2010, you had Louis Eustace at St. Andrews, who's 54th in the world.
We're going back to Royal St. George's. We're going back to Royal St. George's. This is the 14th time that Royal St. George's has hosted this tournament. Last time we saw this course, like I mentioned, Darren Clark won here in 2011. Prior to that, Ben Curtis won here in 2003. It's located in Sandwich, England.
About 32,000 fans, from what I've heard, will be on the grounds each day. It was designed by Dr. Laidlaw Purves in 1887. It's a par 70, measuring 7,189 yards around that. That's what it said on the website. I think it can get a little bit over 7,200, but in kind of that 71-80 range.
The fairways are fescue and bent grass. The greens are 40% bent grass and 60% fescue. Uh, Greg Norman, who won at minus 13 in 1993 is the only player here to win with a total lower than five under. So this is one of the harder venues on the open roto. Like Clark won here in 2011 at five under Ben Curtis, one at one under in 2003. Um,
So it's one of the harder ones pending the weather because it's right on the coast. So it is extremely open to the elements. It's on a very flat piece of land with no protection to the wind. Famous for its tall sand dunes, really deep bunkers, greens with a lot of runoff areas. It's hard. Uneven lies are par for the course here. Good looking shots can end up in trouble. It is as true as,
of a length golf course as it gets. Now, of course, all of that depends on the weather. And if it's completely benign conditions...
It's not going to play that hard. And from what I've heard on the early weather reports, and it can change obviously in an instant. So I would encourage you to keep checking back throughout the week on all of the shows that I do. I will give updated weather information on Twitter too. I will continue to check it, but it looks relatively benign. So maybe a little bit easier than we have seen in years past. But again, that can change in an instant.
I found some really interesting quotes about this place that I think really helped me get a sense of the type of players that I'm looking for. So here's one from Lee Westwood. I think more than anywhere on the open championship Rota, I think a couple of fairway out fairways out there in which you can get really bad breaks. I,
I suppose you can get good breaks as well, but I think at some point during the week, you're going to need patience. It's going to be tested strategically. It's a good golf course. You need to plan your way around it. It's not always driver off every tee downwind. There will be a few five irons and six irons off the tees out there, but at
At some point, if the wind gets up, the green might become drivable on those holes. So it makes you think constantly and adapt to the situation. So just right off the bat, what that kind of tells me is plotters, patient players. I think bogey avoidance will be huge this week. We'll get into that when I go over the stats that I think you should be looking at. Here's another quote from Luke Donald.
Very few tournaments we play where the golf is anything even similar to this.
You know, it's a different set of circumstances, different grasses, different shots. You're having to manipulate the ball a lot more, really control it. And especially when you get windy conditions like we had today, it's a challenge. It's not just standing up there and kind of swinging away. There's a lot more thought and a lot more control of the golf ball that's needed. And I think this is a tough one to win at. Okay.
So for me, that kind of puts a flag next to someone like Victor Hovland.
who is not very good at all at strategic golf. That's why he sucks on Pete Dye courses because he just likes to bomb away. And Pete Dye kind of says to that, well, I'm going to put a pop bunker in the middle of the fairway. And then we get a situation like Vic at TPC Sawgrass or Kiowa or TPC Louisiana or Austin Country Club where it's just not good. And you say, Vic, man, you got to play around those pop bunkers.
I don't know why I randomly just chose to pick on Hovland there, but that quote basically tells me that I'm looking for guys that like to work the ball both ways and
hit different types of shots, different styles of shots, and are really like thinking man's players, right? Like I think Phil has a game perfectly suited for Lynx golf actually because he's the most creative player I've ever seen. Not a shock at all that he came second here and has experienced a lot of success in British Opens in general. Here's another one from Rory.
The thing is with the wind, you're going to have to keep the ball low, but sometimes it's hard to run the ball into these greens because they're so undulating and they can go so many different ways. I think you're going to really need a very strong ball flight, especially if the wind still picks up the way it is. I don't think you'll be able to run many shots in because it can catch the wrong side of a slope and it can go 20, 30 yards away from the green and
I think this golf course is going to be all about the second shot and making sure that you get the ball in the right position on the green because the greens are so slopey that you're going to have 25, 30 footers all day. If you hit the greens, make sense, right? From everything I'm gathering,
This course is not that difficult off the tee. You just have to avoid the bunkers at all costs. And it's all about the second shot. Here's one more from Martin Keimer.
I think the tee shots, they're not so difficult because the fairways are pretty wide. You just need to avoid the bunkers. That's always a penalty if you're in the bunker. You need to chip it out and go from there. But I think the key shots this week are going to be those six to 10 footers for par. I thought that one was very interesting.
And that really gave me the sense that you don't need to be awesome off the tee by any means. You don't need to be a bomber or even incredibly accurate. You just need to avoid complete disaster, which comes in the form of those pop bunkers, which kind of leads me down the route of good drives gained, which I'll touch on in a second.
Ben Curtis. This is the last one. I promise. I thought these were like... When you're in a situation like this with the Open Championship and we get a course that we haven't seen in 10 years, just watch the British Open films. Read the quotes. That is the best way to do research on this course. I watched...
The whole final round of the 2011 British Open with Darren Clark, I read all the media diaries. That is the way that you're really going to get the – been following the groundskeeper on Twitter this week. Shout out to Bamford for giving that plug to me. So you really – that's kind of the best way when you're kind of going into the unknown world.
in a British Open on a course like this that we don't get to see very often, about once every decade. Here's the last one from Ben Curse.
You've got to be able to control your ball flight here more so than in the States. And you've got to know how much roll you're going to get after the ball lands. And that's just through a little bit of preparation and obviously course management. You've got to stay out of those bunkers. Again, we're hearing course management. We're hearing experience. We're hearing stay out of the bunkers, all the same things we're hearing over and over and over again.
back home. Some courses you can hit it in every bunker on the course and you'll be all right. But over here, almost every one you go in is not a good place to be in. So you've got to avoid those. And obviously you've got to chip and putt it really well and try and play to your strengths as well. So I hope these quotes kind of give you a better sense of what it takes to win at a course like this. In a total vacuum,
I'm looking for iron players over guys that are awesome off the tee. I'm looking for plotters, patient players that are comfortable on links golf. I'm looking for creative players, guys who like to work the ball both ways.
and shape their golf ball. Not necessarily players that are comfortable hitting kind of one kind of stock shot. Like Chris Kirk is actually someone that comes to mind. He talks all the time. If you read some of his interviews about how he's not very comfortable hitting straight shots and he really likes to shape his golf shots. So I'm kind of looking at players like that because I think there is going to, uh, this court succeeding on this course is going to take a lot of creativity, I should say. But,
Let's get into, let's specify more so the things that I think you really, really want to look at, and then we'll get to the early weans.
So I'm going to start with the obvious one. British open experience. You're going to hear it all week. You're going to hear it all week from 2011 onwards. All open championship winners had finished in the top 10 of an open at least once prior to winning Louie in 2010 at St. Andrews. He was the lone exception. You're going to hear that till you're blue in the face. Um, Lowry ninth at Liverpool before he won, uh,
Molinari had a top 10 and two top 20s before he won at Carnoustie. Spieth finished fourth at St. Andrews prior to his victory here. Stenson, three top 10s prior to his win at Troon. And the list goes on. So as I kind of already talked about with Feinberg on his show last week, and I got Feinberg coming on again tomorrow, am I putting red ink over anyone with no British Open experience or poor history here?
I think in an outright sense, yeah. Not necessarily ruling those guys out as good DraftKings plays, but I don't think that there will be anyone on my official outright betting card that doesn't at least have something here, something on Lenks golf, preferably at the British Open.
I think it really matters. I have my concerns about a player like Morikawa, who is playing in his first British Open and grew up playing California golf. I have my concerns about a player like Bryson, who has gone miscut, 53rd miscut in three British Open appearances. And let's just say he's not the best dealing with. I don't know if adversity is the right word. Let's go with situations where you have to adjust on the fly.
I mean, Bryson yells about the sand not being perfect at Bay Hill. Can you imagine how ticked off he is going to get if he gets one of those weird hops that Royal St. George's is famous for or the weather comes in and is unexpected and he gets on the wrong side of the draw and now he's going to have to do all of his calculations in the wind that he didn't expect or the rain. I think that stuff really trips him out. I think it kind of confuses him and it gets him really flustered and
You know, spoiler alert, he's not really on my shortlist. Now, if it gets to a point, I'll play anyone if they're if I see them as enough of a leverage play. Like if if the ownership I'm talking DraftKings, I'm not going to bet Bryson. I'm not going to bet more. I'm not going to bet Hovland either.
But in DraftKings, if the ownership, if no one is playing them and you could pick up some great leverage, I mean, those guys like Morikawa and Bryson, if they bring their A game, they can still play well, especially if the conditions are bad.
more benign than we think. I think that's really going to help out iron players. And suddenly the British open formula that everyone thinks about in terms of like a total grind fest where it's scrambling and, you know, very tough conditions. If the conditions are more benign, again, for lack of a better word, I know I just used that then,
In my opinion, based on all the research that I've done, the number one stat that becomes most important is strokes gain approach if the conditions are more benign and it could really turn into an iron fest. And then I think that could really play into Morikawa's hands.
But anyway, we'll talk about some guys a little bit later. Recent form is another big one. So 2019, Shane Lowry had won that year in Abu Dhabi, and he backed it up with a lot of strong finishes on the PGA Tour. Third at RBC Heritage, eighth at the PGA Championship, second at the Canadian Open. So Shane Lowry didn't just come out of the blill.
Um, that season that Shane Lowry had in 2019 prior to winning the open, like it's a lot like the season that Paul Casey is having this year. Uh, maybe a little bit worse than Casey where, but where he's just playing really well and finishing highly a lot.
So I think you're going to hear a lot this week. Well, anything can happen at the open championship. It's a bit of a crapshoot. Everyone's just going to get weird bounces. 85 year old Darren Clark one here out of the blue.
I don't know. I think that's a little bit of a cop out. Like, I think that even the players that have won this tournament, they're all really, really good golfers. Like we're still talking about, even if they're not super elites, we're still talking about really, really good players in really, really good form. And if they weren't in really, really good form, they had like tons of experience on links golf. And it made a ton of sense. Like eight of the last 10 winners were in the world's top 40.
Six of the last 10 were in the world's top 30.
Um, four of the last 10 winners were in the top 10 of the world. So I don't think that this is like as much of a crapshoot as people think it's going to be. Um, eight of the last 10 winners had posted a top 15 in one of their previous three starts. Um, eight of the last 10 winners had teed it up the week before. So you may want to look at guys that played well in Scotland. I know I certainly have, um, eight of the last 10 winners had won that season, um,
So we're looking at guys that are like super elite players or are coming in in pretty good form, like in twenty eighteen.
I already talked about Lowry, but in 2018, like Molinari was playing awesome. He won the BMW championship. He finished second at the Italian open, won the Quicken loans on the PGA tour, just finished T2 at the John Deere classic in, in 2017 speed. He just won the travelers in 2016. Stenson just won the BMW international open in 2015, Zach Johnson,
He just finished second at the John Deere the week before, and he was fifth at the Byron Nelson, sixth at the Travelers, all right before in that month, right? 2014, Rory, obviously, just won the BMW PGA. In 2013, Phil, he'd already won in Phoenix that year. He just finished second at the U.S. Open and St. Jude's. He just won the Scottish Open the week before. The list goes on, right? So we're, you know,
We're talking about guys that are playing really good golf right now is, is the guys that you want to put on your shortlist. I don't know if you want to, I don't know, take like, I I'm,
I'm not in the mindset that this is an incredibly random and difficult to predict tournament. I think there's a lot of data that we have about the types of guys that win these tournaments, and it's a lot like a lot of other majors. I would agree that it probably is the most variable of all the majors, but that's not saying that much. The majors are probably the least variable than, I don't know, we'll say the John Deere Classic, which...
where everyone's hitting greens and so much of it comes down to a putter. Yes, you're going to get some weird bounces here. Yes, there are going to be some random guys and surprises on the leaderboard. Who knows? We could get a weird one. I know that we're certainly due for one. But I also don't think that the top of the board—
and all of these data points that we have coming in about the guys that have won British Opens in the past, I think they could be really useful this week in helping us narrow it down. Like 13 of the last 20 British Open champions had won a tournament in the season prior to winning it. That's another good one. So yeah, like I said, if I had to rank the majors, there's probably more variance in the British Open compared to the other ones, but...
I think that Darren Clark and Ben Curtis wins are going to throw a lot of people off when in reality they're supreme outliers that are going to happen a handful of times every 50 or so years. If the take is,
let's just throw our hands up in the air and try not to predict this thing because anything could happen. Well, yeah, anything could happen, but the British open, like I said, it's not just some random putting contest like the John Deere classic or the rocket mortgage. I actually think tournaments like this are easier to predict than tournaments like that. So, you know, I think,
Like I said, there is, there's no red ink at a tournament like the John Deere classic or the rocket mortgage that is dependent on putting right. You can't, you can't cross anyone off at those tournaments, um, at the British open. I think you can narrow things down a lot.
I think there are a lot of edges that you can find if you do the legwork. Of course, if a monsoon comes in and your players are on the wrong side of the draw, like I was talking about this with Feinberg, do you guys remember the 2016 British Open at Troon where it was the duel between Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson and they got so far out in front of the field? Like third place finished 11 strokes back of Phil Mickelson and 14 strokes back of Henrik Stenson that week. Third place!
Third place, finished 11 strokes back of second place. The reason that happened is because one side of the draw just got completely screwed by the weather and totally wiped out. And of course, that's in play. I don't think that's a reason to just throw all process out the window and say, oh, it's British Open, Darren Clark, who knows? But of course, that's in play, right? So here are some things to think about.
On average, top three finishers at Royal St. George's ranked 40th in driving accuracy, but fourth in greens and regulation percentage. So Clark ranked 56 in driving accuracy, but second in greens and regulation percentage. This was in 2011. This was all pre-strokes game data, but Clark was second in greens and regulation. DJ was six and Mickelson was third.
So that leads me back to kind of what I was touching on before with the Rory quote. Those were the top three guys. So strokes gained approach. Everything leads me to believe that this is a second shot golf course. I know people are going to say that the greens are so huge. Okay. But all the guys that have done well here have had a ton of greens and regulation and we're kind of so, so off the tee. It's like the most obvious stat every week, right?
On golf courses that are nothing like this, but I think in a different way, this is just as much of a second shot golf course as a Harbor town or colonial. I really do. Um, especially if the weather isn't as bad as we think it is. So strokes gain approach. I think it's pretty important here. Like every week. I think it's more, more so important than off the tee. Um, okay. Sand safes.
I'm not putting like a giant weight on this, even though I saw that Justin raced out where these bunkers are absolutely devilish and like guys are getting up and down 36% of the time. Um,
I know that these bunkers are also different from what we see in the, in the U S. So, you know, it's just kind of a little bit of a different animal. I think it's probably the best we can do though. Like in, in my experience playing legs golf and I've never played in Scotland, never played in Ireland, never played in the UK, but the closest I've, I've done probably the closest thing to that in the U S which is banded. And if you're good out of the bunkers, you,
It can carry over. It's not like 180 degree difference in technique. Even though those bunkers there, I remember them being different. So I still think sand saves is worth looking at. I still want guys that can get up and down from these bunkers. And I keep hearing about how penal these fairway bunkers are. So I thought about proximity from fairway bunkers.
But that's useless because if you're in one of these bunkers, you basically just have to chip out sideways. So there's not much use in that at all. What I would focus on instead is how can we mitigate getting into these bunkers in the first place? And that brought me to good drives gained. So from everything I've heard, it's pretty forgiving off the tee. But if you do happen to be in one of the fairway bunkers, you're screwed.
Um, and I think the best way to measure this is good drives game because I'm really looking for players with some control over their golf ball. Um, remember guys who've played really well here, you know, they're not by any means accurate off the tee, but they can keep it out of trouble for the most part. Scrambling and bogey avoidance. Big ones for me. I never look at scrambling. I'd rather look at strokes gained around the green, um, which I am looking at as well, but I,
I want to look at scrambling and bogey avoidance as two stats that I think can really help me identify players that are just going to be really good at avoiding big numbers and not letting their round get derailed by one bad shot. You're going to get bad bounces on this golf course. You're going to make some bogeys.
I really wanted to try and identify players that were really good at not letting a round go completely sideways. And I think that scrambling and especially bogey avoidance, big weight on bogey avoidance for me were the best way that I could do that.
putting from five to ten feet in three putt avoidance I think players are going to have a lot of five to ten footers for par this week I think lag putting is going to be incredibly important obviously like all links courses you can putt from off the green here I
I think you're really going to want guys that are really good at putting from five to 10 feet. Number one in that is Louie, by the way. And number two is Zach Johnson, both players who have won the British open and experienced a lot of success in this tournament. Why? I think one of the reasons is that they make a lot of short putts. I don't think that's a coincidence at all. Par four scoring 400 to 450 yards.
I'm never big on these, but it is worth noting that there are 10 par fours that measure between 400 to 460 yards. So if you want to look at that, I'm not going to kill you for that. Strokes gain windy conditions is kind of the last thing I'll talk about, and then I'll give some early leans.
I think this is obviously something you want to look at. Wind stats are really tough though, right? Like there's a lot of variables that go into this. I don't really trust putting a whole lot in them. I think playing in the wind in the middle of Texas, probably a little bit different than like a coastal wind in England. I think you can get a sense of some players that might perform better or worse when it comes into play.
but not something that I would really live and die with this week. Worth looking at, though, maybe. And the last thing I'll say is keep in mind, like, I don't have a ton of Euro stats with some of these guys. Like, for the Fleetwoods and the Guidos and the Hegos, even someone like Thomas Dietry. Like, I'm not going to spend...
Or I should say this. I'm going to spend some time digging into their Euro stuff, which will be a bit of a separate exercise. But I also don't think that you should waste your time dumpster diving some of these no-name Euros just because it's the British Open.
Like Americans play well here too. I'm going to look at Euros and defer to some of the Euro experts that I trust, shout out Sky, that are locked into that tour on a week-to-week basis. But like if Matthias Schmidt or Marcus Kinholt finish in the top 40 and I miss it, like I'll survive.
I don't like tailing anyone's picks. It makes me angry if I lose. I just like doing all of my own research, and if I find some stuff that puts me on some random Euro, I'm going to play them. But I still believe that there's a lot of useful PGA Tour data out there that can really help us. I really do. In fact, with the Euro stuff, the reason why I'm recording this a little bit later is because I was trying to wait until the Scottish Open ended
ended because I wanted all of the strokes game data for the Scottish Open. I think that really, really matters. I really wanted to see what these guys were doing from a ball spike striking and putting perspective at the Scottish Open. So, you know, I think I'm going to look at everything. You got to be fungible and adaptable in this situation. Great use of fungible there. Okay, so in a vacuum, in a vacuum,
Iron players, British open history, pedigree, recent form, patience, patience, really solid over short putts and doesn't three putt. Good in the wind, creative,
Scramblers, good at avoiding bogeys and plodding along, not letting a round get away from them. Doesn't need to be anything special off the tee, but good at avoiding disaster. Experience and comfortability on Lynx golf. Maybe a low-piercing ball flight. That's what I'm looking for this week. That is what I'm looking for. Using all of that stuff, I created a model, and I'm going to give you guys a top 10 in that.
a little surprising, not chock full of favorites, but let me give you the top 10 in the model that I created using all this stuff. I had to do a little, a little bit more handmade this week because there was, there's different kinds of stuff that I want to put in, but I'll give you the top 10. Jordan Spieth is number one in my model by a, not by a wide margin, but he's number one comfortably. Number two is Xander Shoffley. Number three is Patrick Cantlay. Number four is Abraham Anser.
Number five is Webb Simpson. Number six is Cameron Tringali. Fuck that, though. I completely object. That's just that same infiltration bullshit. Like, does Tringali have naked pictures on Moose or something? Like, what does Tringali have on the Fantasy National guys? He's got something on them. But anyway, seven is Patrick Reed. Eight is Louis. Louis Eustacean, that is. Nine is Daniel Berger. And ten is Brian Hartman.
So interesting group of players there. Um, okay. Early lanes, what to do at the top. I've only made one bet so far, uh, as I alluded to in my intro, it's not at the top. Uh, I can get to that later. The player that rated out the best for me, uh, as I mentioned, not by like a landslide, but comfortably was Jordan Spieth. Uh, by all the numbers that I ran, all of the research that I did, um,
It all kept coming back to one guy. It all kept coming back to Spieth. I think he is the most likely player to win this tournament, even ahead of Rom, which we can talk about too. But for me, Spieth checks more boxes. Now, I've not pulled trigger on him. The best number that I have access to is an 18. I know he's going to be popular.
I wouldn't not bet him just because he's going to be popular. I think people mistake that I will just fade the most popular players at all costs. Yeah, and DraftKings a lot, but I'm talking primarily right now about outright bets. If I don't end up betting Jordan Spieth, it's not because I'm just zagging to zag. He is the guy that rates out the best for me. It would be more so that I just want to structure my card in a different way, and Spieth at 18-1...
That takes up a lot of ammo for me. There are a lot of guys in the 30 to 50 range that I really think can win this tournament and that I really want to bet and that I'm pretty locked into.
And I can get Spieth at 18, or I could get two different guys at 40. But I'm not just someone that bets 10 outrights. I don't ever put more than a unit total on my outrights. It's not how I make money. So I try and tend to be very...
conservative with it and really make some tough decisions. Let's not be reckless here. Like the way that has worked for me is not choosing to bet all of these guys. So I have to make decisions and I have not decided, um, if I'm going to bet anyone at the top, I may start, um, with somebody in like the 35 to 40 range and just really pepper that range. Uh, but if I did have to bet someone at the top, it would be Spieth or Zander. Um,
you know, Spieth is probably out of all of the guys outside of ROM. Spieth is probably the guy at the top that I root for the least. Um, right. Uh, whereas Xander obviously is the guy at the top that I root for the most, but at the same time, like,
I take the picks that I give out on the show incredibly seriously. I take the picks that I give out and kind of my season-long record and my tallies. I take it incredibly seriously too. So I'm just going to bet the player that I think is the best decision. Xander is a guy that I do not need to have any money on for me to be over the moon if he wins.
I spent 12 hours at the U.S. Open, and I followed the one guy that I didn't have money on for the entire time. And I had a lot of guys in the mix at the U.S. Open. I had a really good U.S. Open, and the entire time, I spent following the one guy that I didn't have money on. So I don't need to...
I don't need to bet Xander, um, to be following him along the way. Uh, if I end up betting Xander, it's because I think he's the best bet. And right now, uh, I think the two best options at the top by my numbers, I know people get very triggered, uh, about Xander outrights. Uh, but by my numbers, the guys that check the most boxes for me at the top that make the most sense for me are Spieth and Xander. Um,
and Cantlay too. Like, I guess we can throw Cantlay into that bucket because Cantlay is somebody that I'm going to be decided between as well. And I've seen as high as a 40 on him. But I think kind of the general market is closer to like 30 or 33. So at the top, I would be leaning towards someone. It would be one of the three guys that I think
are the best by my estimation that I could see myself betting would be Spieth, Zander, and Cantlay. I'm probably a little bit higher on Dustin than I expect others to be this week. So I will be using Dustin Johnson and DraftKings.
I'll be using a little bit of Rory in DraftKings as well, but they're not on my short list of guys that I'm going to bet. I don't think those numbers are great on them. So I like Dustin and I like Rory as well, but in terms of betting outright, it would be Spieth, Zander, or Cantlay at the top for me. The one bet that I've made, like I mentioned, I've made one bet for the Open so far.
I bet Patrick Reed at 46 to one, uh, on bet us. Um, so he rates out incredibly well for me in the model, uh, 21st and bogey avoidance fifth and sand saves. Uh, he's an incredible bunker player. Um,
He, where do I have the read stuff? So yeah, he's one of only five players in the field. That's averaging, um, over two strokes in the wind. Uh, the short game has been incredible. He just checks every single box for me. I don't know how popular he's going to be. I expect him to be popular. Um,
I think you'd be silly not to play him unless the ownership gets completely out of control, but I think it's an absolutely perfect course for him. I think 45-1 is a great number. Even 40-1 is a great number on Reid. I think he's a very suitable play. I think it makes a lot of sense this week to put a small wager on Patrick Reid at 45-1. So that's the one bet that I've made this week is Reid.
The other guys that I'm seriously, seriously considering, I really like Hatton. I really like Hatton. Hatton is 50 to 1 right now. One second. My dog is going crazy.
Sorry about that. So he, you know, that's just the give or take of being, being back in New York. I got a dog that I got to take care of a little bit too. So I apologize for that. Tyrell Hatton. I'm really, I really liked Tyrell Hatton this week at 50 to one. So he's a, he's a guy that I'm seriously considering. And then the other guys that I could see myself getting to,
I'm just going to keep betting Paul Casey at over 50 to one. Like I look at what Casey's doing with the irons and, you know, he's lost strokes putting.
in all of these majors and still continues to finish in the top seven um it is unbelievable uh what he's doing i think you just have to play him and hope that he putts well because the ball striking has been so elite for him he never misses cuts uh he finishes in the top five when he loses strokes putting like i think that everyone's going to be all over louis this week
I think Casey's a better play. Louie's finishing top five in these majors because of his putter. Casey's doing it because of his ball striking. And I know, like, Paul Casey, like...
I don't know. There's this thing about Paul Casey where I think people think he's this kind of square loser or whatever. I don't care. I think he's an incredibly sensible play this week. I think that, especially kind of what we talked about with Morikawa, I know he's not like awesome on Lynx Golf or in the British Open. Like, come on. He's fine. He's like...
He finished 11th in 2017. He, he has two other top tens here, 2010, 20, 2008. He finished in the top 10 as well. So he was right in it with Louie at St. Andrews in 2010. I remember watching that film as well. So I think,
Paul Casey is a great play. He is like the third or fourth best iron player in the world right now. And like I mentioned with Morikawa, I think if the conditions are a little bit more benign, I think iron play is really going to come to the forefront here. So I like Paul Casey a lot. The other guy that I like a lot is I think Cam Smith is
I think Cam Smith is, is going to have himself a week. I think it's a really good spot for Cam Smith. I liked what I saw from him at the travelers. He gained 4.6 strokes on approach. It's his best iron week since February. The off the tee wasn't great, but if there's anything that I think he can get away with here, it's off the tee. Um, he continues to putt incredibly. He's consistently good and has the occasional spite week. His short game is good. Um, I'll
Australians have a really good history on links courses and at the British open finished 20th at Royal port rush. Um, I like cam Smith this week. I think cam Smith is a really good point. I have no idea how popular these guys are going to be in draft Kings. I have no, um, I don't know. I haven't listened or, or looked at really anything like it's Sunday morning. Right. So, um, I'm just the guys right now that I like a lot are, um,
Reed, Hatton, Paul Casey, Cam Smith. All those guys are between 40 and 60 to 1. And then at the top, I'm going to decide between Spieth, Xander, and Cantlay. I looked at pretty much every player in the field this week, short of the really crazy ones. So before we get out of here, I'll give you a couple more guys that I think are very playable in the top 40 market and in DraftKings that...
I would probably play in DraftKings, but I don't think they'll make my betting card. But I think they're playable guys. I think this is a decent spot for answer. And I hate answer, and I never play answer. I think answer makes some sense here. I'm going to play a little bit of Webb. I think that Webb makes some sense here too.
I'm going to, Bazayden Hout, I think is a pretty good play this week. I fully endorse Bazayden Hout at $7,400 on DraftKings. I'm going to probably play him in the top 40 market. If there's one guy over 100 to 1 that I would maybe sprinkle on, I think Bazayden Hout is a really good spot for him.
I think I actually think Fowler is pretty, is a pretty good play. I think Fowler is a good play this week. And I, I'm, I'm not a huge Fowler guy. Uh, but when I dug into Fowler, uh, I was very impressed. Um, so I'm going to have Fowler in my player pool. I'm maybe going to play him in the top 40, but I liked what I saw with Fowler. There's a couple guys in the six thousands that I think are playable. Um,
I think Harmon at 7,100 is playable. Uh, he is, uh, he, he burned everyone at the John Deere, I guess. Um, I,
I that was a no for me I think coming off a miscut he got out of there early I think this is a pretty I you know he law I liked what I saw ball striking at John Deere he just had a really bad putting week but I think Harmon on the bounce back at 7100 I think that's I think he's in play I think that's a decent spot for him I think Stu sink at 6900 is very playable as well and I think Keegan
at 68 is playable as well. The lowest I would go would be Chris Kirk at 6400. I kind of mentioned his ball flight that I like. I think he's a guy that is
playable. And Matt Jones is the only other guy in the sixes that I would consider. He's on my shortlist as somebody that I think is rosterable in this spot would be the would be sink. Bradley Jones and Kirk are the guys I'm kind of looking at below 7000. And, you know,
Top 40 wise, I'm looking at guys like Bazayden Hout and Ricky Fowler. So that's it. That will do it for me. I am. I talked at the top about how I was going to make this under an hour. I don't think I succeeded at that. I don't know how long I've been going. I think it's been close to an hour. And I really apologize for the my dog freaking out in the middle of this podcast as well. That's.
Going to be a little bit par for the course for me when I'm in New York, but I'll try and keep my guy under control. Hopefully, you got a lot out of this episode. I am going to be back a lot this week, as I mentioned. So I'll just do a quick overview of the things where you can catch me on this week. I will be recording a betting podcast with
with Jeff Feinberg, my guy tomorrow evening. Um, that'll probably come out on Tuesday morning. So look out for that. By that time, I will have my guys completely locked in probably. Um, or I will have a much greater idea of the guys that I'm going with on Tuesday.
We're recording Monday night, but it'll probably come out like closer to Tuesday afternoon or evening. Separate DFS show with Nagels. My guy. That is going to be very fun. I'm super excited for that. Notice how I didn't talk a lot about Xander, even though I have a ton of thoughts on Xander. I'm saving it. I'm saving it. I'm saving it for that show. And.
Uh, you can catch me on tap in birdie. That's I believe I live stream on Tuesday night with my guy, Brian Kirshner. You can catch me on the hammer cast show on Monday night with my guy hammer jacks. I love doing that show. That will be live on Monday night. I'll get way more into the numbers on that show. If you know, that's,
somehow where we tend to go on shows like that. So that's a great show if you like kind of getting more so into the weeds and you're interested in some of all the weird nuggets that I found. And, oh, Jump the Sharp podcast with my guys. I can't wait. So these guys...
their sports betting podcast they kind of only talk about golf for the majors um but they're awesome man two philly guys uh i went on last time for the u.s open it was a ton of fun they invited me back we ended up talking a ton about the nba because as you guys know i'm a giant nba fan so they're bringing me on to talk the british open and little do they know that i'm coming prepared with like a million fake ben simmons traits that i want to run by them
Um, so we'll probably get at off track with those guys, but I would encourage you guys to check them out. If you just like sports gambling, uh, and you're not as much of a golf guy or, you know, if you're a Philly guy, of course, obviously, but they are a really incredible podcast. I really like those guys. I'm always excited to get into things with them. So I will be on their podcast and I'll probably come out like Wednesday night, um, or something like that. But,
Oh, my Roto Baller article. I forgot about it because I already wrote it. It's already done. It's going to be published on Monday. Pretty in-depth with the stats and stuff. That's always a fun read. Please check that out at rotoballer.com. That should be out, I don't know, whenever Joe gets to publishing it, but usually around Monday morning. And that's it, guys. Hey, if you have not...
liked rated reviewed or subscribe. I never talk about this stuff. Um, because I just feel kind of awkward asking, uh, but it means a lot. It really means a lot. Like actually, if you like the show, um, and you appreciate it, um,
If you just leave like a quick review, like, Hey, this guy's cool. I like him. I like his information. He gives out good picks. He gives out bad picks, whatever. Uh, he's entertaining. Um, I like his show.
It would, it means a lot. Like it actually means a lot in trying to grow it. Um, I've been so impressed with the support that I've gotten and how much this show has grown in a really short time. And it's why, despite that, I've already, uh,
you know, picked up a lot more work in terms of freelance writing for other golf magazines. It's why I've continued to do this show. Um, because I know that people really like it and it's a great way to start off your week in terms of research. Um, so I'm going to keep doing it despite, um, busier times ahead for myself, uh, because I love it and I love the feedback that I've gotten on it. Um, so please, please, please leave a five-star rating and review and, uh,
You will hear a lot of me this week, so I will talk to you soon. Later guys. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are
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