Bermuda Championship with Tom Jacobs
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All right, Inside Golf Podcast. I want to start off by wishing a very happy birthday to Xander Shoffley. Happy 28th to the fifth ranked player in the world, Olympic gold medalist. 28 years old today. Wasn't a highly touted amateur player. No Walker Cup teams. No Haskins Awards. No collegiate accolades. No hype. And yet...

He's finished in the top 10 of 50% of the majors that he's played in. 9 of 18. That is a stupid, stupid good start to your career. Phil Mickelson won his first major at 34. DJ didn't win his first until he was 32. So we are entering the prime of his career. It's going to be a fun couple of years. Okay, Bermuda Championship Week.

Tom Jacobs of Mayo media network odds checker, uh, loss for words podcast will be joining me in just a minute to break down this, uh, very, very, very, very ugly field this week. But listen, this is, uh, this is where the true grinders thrive. Uh, everyone that's already listening to this episode gets it. Um,

Like Pat was making the point that this is a much more intriguing tournament than the Zozo. And I'm not sure. I mean, obviously I cared more about the Zozo because my favorite player was playing, which we can address as well. But from a, from a draft Kings and betting perspective, I, I,

I kind of agree. I actually like having a cup better. I think betting in a full field is more fun, actually, believe it or not. And people will say, well, it's harder to pick a winner. Well, I don't care about picking a winner. What it does do is it brings top 40s into play. And my philosophy with making money betting on golf isn't actually dependent on finding the winner of the tournament. It's actually on finding guys that...

most people think are going to miss the cut but i think can finish 29th um so these terrible full field events uh i tend to do pretty well on them and i think i found some gems as well this week which we will get into in a moment but first as i mentioned on the last podcast um

Big career change coming. And for anyone that listens to this podcast but isn't on Twitter, I took a job at The Score to be their golf editor. And what that entails podcast-wise and just golf multimedia-wise for me in general, we're still working out. We're still brainstorming.

a lot of zoom meetings and such. So I don't have a definitive answer or understanding yet of how this podcast is going to potentially interact or relate to my day job. I will say this after getting the advice of some people that I really trust in this industry. The overwhelming sentiment from, from them was that I would be pretty foolish to

to just take the job and get rid of the podcast, even though the job is going to make me exponentially more money than I have made or probably can make doing the podcast. And I don't want to make it seem like it was an either or.

The score has been incredible so far with some of their ideas and ways to utilize me in expanding their multimedia coverage. And it's a roundabout way of saying, I don't know what the specifics are going to look like, but I will say this.

I will not be doing less content. It might be more short form stuff that is better consumable on an app. I may do another separate specific betting show that is more part of the score bet, but there should be some fun stuff ahead. The reason why it's so important for me to continue this podcast in some way, shape or form is because

Basically, I just love shooting the shit with golf, with my friends about golf. And I love being able to talk to smart people about golf. And every single person that has come on this podcast, I've truly had a great experience with. And it's allowed me to make a lot of good friends. And whatever the media stuff that I'll be doing for the score, I'm going to be doing

I don't want that to be all of me. I don't want to lose some of those friendships and, and some of those conversations. Um, like if Xander wins the masters, I want to be able to do a podcast with Nagels, right? Um, if I want to talk about golf courses with Steve Hennessy, I want to be able to do that. Right. Uh,

If I want to have Jeff on and the podcast goes off the rails because we start talking about football, then so be it. Those are the actual types of conversations that I have with those people and with my friends. And this podcast has been such a great outlet and allowed me to meet a lot of new and interesting people and learn some things and

That's why I knew when I accepted that position and I found out how real of a job it is and the responsibility that it would entail.

I knew I would have to, at least at the beginning, um, not be able to do two podcasts a week. It just was not conceivable. Um, and the reason for the time being that I've chosen to keep doing this, this one, the Tuesday show, and instead of the solo preview, even though a lot of, uh, people like the solo way more, which I completely understand by the way, it's certainly more informative. Um,

And I'll say that for sure. And, and it'll, it'll come back to, I just need to get settled in, but I want to keep doing this one, um, literally for the, the communal aspects of it. And, and,

That is what's really important to me. So again, very long way of saying this podcast will continue. I'm currently doing it completely for free. I dropped all my sponsorships that I had because of non-compete contract stuff. And I told them like, you know, even them showing interest in wanting to buy it or sponsor it.

I'd rather do it for free and make zero money off of this, but talk about the things that I want to talk about and have the guests that I want to have on. There's going to be tons of content stuff that I'll do with the score, but this particular podcast...

Um, I like being completely in control and that's not to say that it won't tie into stuff with the score. I'm sure it will. Um, but I care a lot about its integrity and, and that's why I never, I never really do giveaways or stuff like that, or really try to get people to subscribe or listen. I, I,

want people to listen. I want people to share it and tell their friends about it, but, um, it's not really about that for me. I have a job that pays me now. Great. This is, this is more of just kind of an outlet and hopefully informative to some people. Um,

And I know it helps me in my own process. So I, like, like I said, I got the job that I was looking for when I started this whole thing. Um, the only reason that I'm still doing the podcast is because I love it and I know that people care about it. And, and I want to say thank you one more time to all of the people that reached out, uh, in the DMS to congratulate me on getting that gig. I have, uh,

truly done my best to give really, uh, thoughtful answers to anyone that DMs me. I, I just think that's a good example to set and, and really important. Um, I've been getting a lot of, um, career advice questions lately, which at 26 years old, I don't know how qualified I am to be answering all those questions. Um, a couple of people asked me if they should quit their job. Um,

Uh, I don't really want to be the guy that, that tells you to do that. Um, but I will, I will close with this. So, so Nick, right. Um, you know, the Fox sports guy, he, he, he's loves LeBron and he loves the chiefs. He's got a show on FS one. I'm blanking on what it's called, but he's a pretty, um, he's a pretty famous media talking head.

And he gave this podcast interview that has always stuck with me where they asked him, what advice would you give to college kids or people in their early 20s that want to do this for a living? And he said, everyone wants to get paid to write and talk about sports.

Everybody wants my job and probably feels like they can do it better than me. Well, the only people that actually end up getting those jobs are the people that if it wasn't their job, then they would feel a deep emptiness. And I thought that was really interesting. I thought that was a fascinating and kind of vulnerable way to put it. And I

As crazy as that sounds. And he was basically like, I knew that I had to do this. There was no other option. There was no going to law school. There was no working on Wall Street. If this wasn't what I did, then I would feel incomplete. I would feel like there's a gaping hole in my life.

Um, and as sad as that sounds, that's, that's how I've, that's kind of the way that I've always felt about golf. Like if this, if this wasn't what I did, um,

Um, I know this sounds dramatic, but I don't think that I would feel fulfilled and maybe that's a deeper issue. Um, but you have to have a little bit of that in you. You have to have a little bit of that. Fuck it. I'm just going to do literally whatever it takes because there's no other option. I have to do this. Um,

And I just really, really related to that interview. And it stuck with me for years now. And it's kind of the mindset that I've had with this. So,

Anyway, I said I would try my best to provide a little context. Didn't really answer too many questions about the future of the show or what it's going to look like with the new job. But that's only because we're still figuring out ourselves. But I'm excited. Very cool stuff on the way. Enough about that. Let's get to my conversation with Tom Jacobs.

Okay. Tom Jacobs is here. We've been circling the wagons on this one for a while. I have a lot of mutual friends and colleagues, and I was just telling you offline, I've been a fan of your work for quite some time now. So I'm glad we finally got to do this. Our biggest obstacle, obviously, is the time difference. So thanks for waking up early for me, man, and welcome on.

Andy, thank you for having me. Look, you know, I come across your work thanks to Pat. You know, just the podcast you've done with him. I've been a big fan of your podcast since. Your writing's been good. Your bets are great. So even get to sprinkle some NFL in there as well, which I'm definitely clueless about. So that's nice to see. And look, man, you know, I'm sure you've been speaking about this a bit over the last week or so, but...

Just a career move you've made is outstanding and, you know, it's inspiring, really. You know, there's guys that are out there that would love to do what you do. It's not an easy jump to make and you're transitioning into it well. So congratulations to you.

I really appreciate that, man. For those who are listening to this podcast, I'll see I opened with kind of discussing a little more context a bit, but I just, the amount of support that I've received, you mentioned Pat already, who's been kind of instrumental in helping me and guiding me along the way. But yeah, the amount of support that I've received from people like you and others in the industry and others just reaching out to say, hey, I've

Really love your work. Thanks for doing what you do and super excited for you. It means a lot. So I really do appreciate you saying that. And like I said, I'm a huge fan of your work as well. Odds Checker is just... I was joking with Rick about this because Rick was on the podcast, I think, two weeks ago. And I was like, Odds Checker, they're just...

they're doing something right. They're hiring like all my favorite guys. You, Jeff, Rick. Now they've got everyone, Joe, Donnie, who I also love. Yeah. No, I'm lucky, man. They've, uh, they've brought me along and, uh, I'm there for the ride now. So hopefully we've got a good thing going there. Um, a couple of articles a week now, first round leader as well. I did two of that, which is great. But, um, look, you know, the, the hard work you put in is rewarded dude. And,

you know i think i think the best thing about this sort of community that we're in is that if you do work hard and people can see it you do generally get supported and uh and that's all you need right you know you need a need a break pat's really good at doing it just you know brings you guys out and uh gives you a platform that's that's all you it's all you really can ask for if you put the work in and and show that you know what you're doing then uh then people will help you out so that's good

Speaking of putting the work in, you and I, Tom, are part of the small percentage of society that is grinding over the Butterfield Bermuda Championship this week. I'm very excited to talk about it with you. Are you ready to jump right in?

Oh yeah, I'm ready to go. I probably spent too long on it. I know, me too. It's a little depressing. It's the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, as I mentioned. There are 132 players in this field, so we're back to a full field event. We're back to a cut. It's a full PGA Tour event, even though it looks like

an alternate field event or a quarter fairy tour event. So the winner does get 500 FedEx cup points, a full two year exemption and invite to the masters. Uh, it is being played at Port Royal golf club, which was designed in 1970 by Robert Trent Jones, not a huge Robert Chet Jones fan myself personally, but it's on a beautiful piece of land. It's only 6,842 yards and

par 71 so one of the shortest courses on tour Bermuda Rough Bermuda Fairways Bermuda Greens throughout and so Brian Gay won here last year Tom at 15 under par in a playoff over Winsome Clark and then Brendan Todd won the year before at 24 under when it was a little bit less windy but I

I think when you hear Brian Gay and Brendan Todd together as the only two winners of this event, it's very easy to draw a through line that this is one of those weeks where those types of players, the Vaughn Taylors, the Brian Stewards, the Ryan Armors, they're kind of licking their chops because it's one of those courses on the schedule that brings their style of play into mix, whereas those guys aren't going to contend at Torrey Pines.

I think those types of guys are aware that this is one of those weeks, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if a couple more of those players rose to the occasion. What are you kind of looking for this week? I think you're exactly right. I think the Brian Gay's this world. Brendan Sutter's play is a little bit more adaptable, but Brian Gay himself, he maybe circles three events a year where he thinks he can get it done.

And he generally does, right? You know, he generally competes in those events. It's pretty remarkable what he's done over his career. I mean, I spoke to Paul Zori, my podcast, you know, not so long ago, and he was saying that, you know, he was on his college team. He's exactly the same player then as he is now. And it's just remarkable how he's managed to keep that going. So very good player, very good winner when he gets in the mix. When I think of this event, I just...

I tend to dive into the correlated courses, right? And people do it all the time. And sometimes I feel like I get paralyzed by it a little bit because I've done too much digging into it.

The Mayakoba Classic jumped out to me straight away. You know, Brendan Todd and Brian Gove both won that. Bryce Garnett has got three top sevens at Mayakoba, shot a six on the final round here. Aaron Wise, third at Bermuda, tenth at Mayakoba. Sink, fourth at Bermuda, 15th at Mayakoba. Ryan Armour, fourth at Mayakoba, two eights here. So it just, it kept coming up and

It makes sense, right? There's slower greens there, short course, coastal track, and there's nothing really hidden in that. And the other one was Hawaii. That came up an awful lot as well. Brian Gay's got three top 10s there. Brendan Todd's got three top 21s. Fabian Gomez, 7th there, 7th here, sorry, and won the Sony Open. Schneiderhan's top 7s at both. Sink's top 5s at both.

So it just keeps repeating. And the one person that really stood out for me in all of this was Bo Hogg. And he has one top 10 finish on the PGA Tour, and that was at the Sony Open. His next best was 11th here. And then he had another top 20 at Maracoba. And for someone that doesn't really have a lot of top 20s, his name is quite alarming that those three courses came up.

Interesting. I love that. I was like, whoa, are we already going to dive right into Bo Hoag? I love that. Yeah, no, I totally agree. I was kind of looking at the same types of things. I would throw a little Sea Island into that mix maybe. I've heard Harbortown, which I don't really agree with just because of the trees and how positional of a golf course that is. But Pebble Beach, I kind of like. Obviously, that's a Poa West Coast course, so it's not perfect.

but I think kind of just, and even, even a little Val spar a little bit because of the Bermuda shortness, but, but even that is kind of more similar to Harbor town. So I guess I can't have both of them, but I agree with you. I think kind of these shorter coastal courses are,

typically Bermuda par seventies, par 71s, usually between 6,800 and 7,200 yards. The same type of players always tend to pop up on them. And it's really not a coincidence. So I do the same things in my research. I kind of put together all of the courses that I think are similar. I, I,

Fantasy National has such great tools that makes it easy for us. And I kind of just do a lot of comparing based on leaderboards and look for the similar names. So I'm right there with you, man. Anything else you want to talk about course-wise or anything like that before we kind of dig into the odds board? I think you mentioned RSM. That was good. Obviously, Brian Gay's won both these events. Scotty Scheffler's got top fives at both Puerto Rico, Corrales,

both the same kind of like coastal stuff. And you mentioned the heritage, and I did write that down because Stuart Sink won heritage and finished fourth here. Brendan Todd was fourth at the heritage. Schneiderhans, third at the heritage as well, and top five here. So it really did work. I think for me, it's one of those rare weeks where driving accuracy actually matters. And I say that because...

It's not the guys that have 70 or 80% of fairways that win. It's just being able to hit fairways is such a rarity here. I mean, I think the average was kind of like 54%, I think it was, in 2019, and 49%, I think, even worse in 2020 because of the win. So I do think it pays to take out that less than driver course. And that doesn't necessarily mean, you know, I made a joke about being, you know, the 50-year-old 270-yard drivers, but...

as long as the long hitters humble themselves and then take an iron off the tee or three words or whatever in places, then it's a perfect time to do that. And I think we tend to see, it wouldn't be a surprise at all. We saw one of the longer hitters win in that fashion because so often they've written off on short courses because it negates their best, you know, tool. But by the same token, they have that kind of power and easy power that they can, they can do what they normally do just with less clubs. So yeah,

I've kind of got a bit of a mix in there in terms of players like that. I think I do generally reward the accuracy, but when I look down my list a little bit more, it's certainly not made up of just people that find the fairways.

Okay. So let's dig it. You kind of gave an interesting segue to a couple things that I want to talk about that I'm sure we'll get to with some of these favorites. So I'm going to give you the favorites, Tom, on DraftKings, but feel free to throw out whatever numbers you want. I'm just using DraftKings for the tiers. So looking at the guys who are 30 and below on DraftKings, we've got Matthew Fitzpatrick at 10 to 1, Christian Bazayden out at 14 to 1, Patrick Reed at 18 to 1, Mito Pereira at

20-1. Seamus Power at 22-1. Danny Willett at 27. Hayden Buckley at 27-1. Let's stop there. We were kind of joking a little bit offline about our lack of immediate interest in the favorites, but let's talk a little bit about them. Is the reason why you don't have a ton of interest in these guys more so because of it being a

kind of a wide open event where all these different types of players can contend or you kind of you're kind of just out on the idea of a Matthew Fitzpatrick or Buzaydenhout being 10 and 14 to 1. Yeah, so I think I think for me, I would never really want to back Fitzpatrick at 10 to 1 unless it was on the European tour. So I think that that's one reason. Buzaydenhout actually played pretty well as a favorite a couple of occasions on the European tour, you know, in his homeland in South Africa.

I think there's slight concerns over him. He's had a couple of injury problems and he's just had a wedding and things like that. So there's enough for me to not worry about that. But yeah, I think the main factor, like you say, is just how wide open it is. Like everybody in the field can win and that's not...

often the case like okay you know structuring it a bit with the everything because of the alternates that are coming in and some of the guys that are out there but the the the style of golf you need to play can be played by everybody so I think once that happens it's you know we've already seen there's been 15 under and 24 under I think the weather's due to get up pretty bad over some of the days but if they can get anywhere near sort of 17 18 under it's going to come down to a bit of a putting contest and

I think, you know, people like Matthew Fitzpatrick has built his foundations on really good putting. And everyone will kind of look at that and go, look, he's a really accurate guy. He's very humble off the tee when he needs to be. And he puts really well. But these slower greens are a different concept for people like Matthew Fitzpatrick. And I think it actually negates his putting skills.

talent because whereas other people are so worried to be aggressive on these faster greens on the pj tour he he loves it like he rises to the challenge whereas get a bit sticky on the fair on the greens here and maybe that might put him off so maybe what you're saying is that that could play into mito pereira's hands it could it could it really could he was the closest guy for me so i sort of wrote up in my my ultra checker piece that

Where I've put my first pick is that Mito Pereira was considered for the spot. And his ridiculous approach numbers, all-round solid form. I think he's got the perfect game for the modern PGA Tour, right? The putting has been a concern for him. But like you say, as I've just said there, I think this brings a lot of different putters into it. For me, it was just price. I say this a lot on the show Sky for Man Media Network is that

I would just take him in a bigger field. Like, I don't think Nita Pereira needs to come into... You know, some guys think they can only win small events and, you know, you look at guys and go, they have to win at Puerto Rico or they're never going to win in their life. And I don't think Pereira is a guy like that. I think he can win in, you know, Torrey Bynes or Pebble or Phoenix or whatever if he really, you know, has a good week. So I'd rather just take him at a number where he's kind of 80 to 101. And that's kind of just...

I think I'm very much against the favourites. It doesn't work out in my favourites too often because there are favourites for a reason. But, you know, I was actually surprised, you know, there is some sort of 25 to 1 about in some places and that's not too bad. But when it was getting to 20 to 1, I was a bit kind of like, I don't need to do this this week.

Yeah. I was looking at the 25 to one as well. I agree. 20 is a little steep. I think the only concern that I would raise with what you said is I, I think he's too good that we're ever going to see him at, at too many higher numbers, unless you're right. Unless it's a, I don't know, Torrey Pines where, where you have a lot of the big guns. But you kind of spend some time looking at the numbers with this guy and it's

It's kind of crazy how much better he is than everyone else right now. It's relative, right? I'm not saying he's a better ball striker than calm more call. But in this field over his last 30 rounds, he's third and off the sea. He's first in approach. He's second in opportunities gained. He's eighth in birdies are better gained. He's 12th and fairways gained. He's ninth in proximity from 100 to 125 yards. It's 11th in proximity from 125 to one 50 12th in proximity from 200 yards plus and

So you can hit those long irons too. And there's two closing par threes that play around 235 yards that he'll be fine there. First and good drives gained again. It's not the biggest sample size and he's never, he's still yet to play in a tournament with a legitimately good field. So all of his strokes gain numbers are, are going up against jabronis, but statistically it's kind of crazy how much better he is than, than mostly everyone else in this field. And again,

I'm running into the same issue with you as I...

He's gotten to the point where he's built up such a bandwagon. And I get it, by the way. I think it's a little crazy how much people orgasm over, but I get why if you look at the numbers, he should be kind of the darling of the stat community right now. And it's all justified, but it's tough because I think that the number is he's going to be a guy that's going to be consistently overpriced. He's gotten to the point in DFS where

he's unplayable basically because of the ownership that he garners. It's tough. I'm with you. I'm kind of on the fence. I like, he was somebody that I was staring with. I haven't really made too many bets this week yet, Tom, because I was kind of waiting for the tee times. But Mito is probably like that number one guy on my short list that I keep kind of wavering on and going back and forth on. And I think for me, I kind of said on a show last night, I did that, you know,

This is the type of event where I don't really want to be value proud or whatever. If you genuinely think Pereira is the most likely to win, then take the 20-1. There's no need to wait for 25-1. There's no need to wait for the 3-1. If you genuinely think he's going to win this week...

then a 20-1 winner is much better than backing someone at 33-1 just because they have better value, right? So I think for me, I would still encourage people to bet him just for the reasons that you outlined in terms of the accuracy, in terms of the ball striking. My only slight concern is we tend to get one or two players like this a year where through the full season, after they come up on the corn ferry, they're electric, right? And their ball striking is superb. And because we don't know...

because you don't have the strokes going stats from the corn free where we can assume that that is something that he did all season long considering the amount of wins he had we don't know if it's an outlier in terms of the four or five weeks he's done or whether that's just what he's going to do going forward because to keep up the numbers that he's doing and producing are are ridiculous and it's the same with someone like hayden buckley will come on social as well but yeah you know the results have been

almost too good to be true over the last two starts and you just wonder if they're going to kind of come back to reality a little bit but it might be that Pereira is just a really really good player and he's just been on the wrong tour you know he's had that two years where everyone's not been able to make the jump and he's only 26 I think so maybe it's just you know a case that he was ready for this a couple of years ago and just couldn't get there

That's a really good point. What's interesting about Mito is I think there's this perception that Mito's like this Chilean golf prodigy. He's older than John Robb. He literally came out of left field. Neiman is...

six years younger than Mito and Mito and Neiman's been on the tour for two years right like Neiman's been the guy right and and this Mito Asen has been kind of crazy there's not a lot of precedent for it now but

That's awesome. I love players like that. That's kind of Xander's story, right? Like Xander wasn't a highly touted amateur. He wasn't a highly touted college player. And he kind of just figured it out around 23, 24 years old and became awesome. And that's kind of what we're seeing with Mito where it's hard to figure out how real it is. And it's actually like if he's going, he's gained over five strokes on approach and three straight starts.

even that, like even doing that for three straight starts, not a lot of guys that do that on the PGA tour. You really, you'd be surprised how little you see that, right? To just to gain over five, three starts in a row, you're really getting into that Morikawa JT S category of, of guys that are doing that again, I get it. They're bad fields, but I agree. It's, it's kind of a fascinating, I'm

Honestly, I'm fascinated to see where the rest of his career goes and the rest of his season goes. You brought up Hayden Buckley. I'll tell you, man, I looked at Hayden Buckley and I was like...

I'm excited about this guy. And then I thought about it a little more and I was like, what am I saying? This guy's not catching anyone by surprise this week. He was eighth and fourth in his last two starts, I think. And both of those starts, he gained strokes in all four major categories. I think the last start he gained 6.1 ball striking. So they priced him really high, both in the betting markets and DraftKings. And I'm not going to play him

But if it's a situation in DraftKings where people don't play him because he's overpriced, then I would play him because the numbers have been great with him. Digging down a little bit deeper in kind of the 30s and the 40s, are there any guys once we get into here, Tom, that kind of have your attention a little more so?

The other guy, sort of just sub 30 or on that level, was Danny Willett. I found it hard to ignore because I put him in there and for a shaker, I kind of have to predict the favourites before the odds come out because of the time difference and things like that. And I had Danny Willett kind of just behind, like, between Outreid and Fitzpatrick. And maybe that was because I was a little high on Willett myself, but...

I was surprised that Buckley and Pereira are both definitely shorter than him. And when you look back at it, his results on the PGA Tour are not fantastic outside of his Masters win. So he doesn't play an awful lot of events. When he does, he tends to be in a stronger field. So I think I looked and he's kind of had two top tens and they came like Puerto Rico and Rocket Mortgage. So it's all the corrales. I can't remember which play it was. But I think this is those type of events, right? And

Perfect for the wind. He doesn't necessarily need to hit it far off the tee, so his irons and wedges come in to the fore. Massive renewed confidence. I think that's a big thing for him. I didn't get there in the end just because of the guys that I've got coming up next, but he would probably want to be worried about the top of the market and think he could be a smarter DFS player.

Interesting. Yeah, I was talking to Jeff today. He's high on Willett this week. I see it. And he's one. Another thing that people fail to recognize sometimes is when these guys, you know, went on the PGA Tour. I mean, sorry, on the European Tour.

That the stats aren't, you know, a lot of people aren't looking at those stats. So we're, we're talking about a guy that just won on the European tour as well. Talk about some of those, those other guys, Tom reveal some of those, those guys that, that you, you were about to mention in, in kind of that, that 30 and 40 range.

So for me, the guy that pretty much everyone this side of the pond at least has been on is Adam Hadwin. And for good reason, right? You know, he's got two top tens in the Maya Cobra, which I think correlates really strongly. Also had a top 10 in WGC in Mexico, whether that's worth anything, I'm not quite sure. But he's been sixth at Bay Hill, where obviously the wind can come into play quite often. Two top eight finishes at Colonial, where it can get windy, short track. And his win at the Valspar, right? You mentioned that off the top, like...

Any short courses, I think, are relevant. They are slightly different in terms of the test. Obviously, Valspar looks nothing like a Bermuda. Neither does Harbour Town, like you said. But the same guys do well in the same places. And the Valspar was another one of those. And for me, I looked at total accuracy over the last three months. That's driving accuracy and greens regulation. And he was fifth on tour in that respect. Thirteenth in driving accuracy, seventeenth in greens regulation. So...

Given it's a weak field, there's only really a handful of guys that are actually in steady form currently. And he was sixth last time out of the Shriners, 42 at the Sands, so nothing special. But he ended with top tens at the 3M and the Wyndham last year as well. So I think just that combination of current form, accuracy off the tee, the fact that he tends to play well when accuracy matters as opposed to bombing and gouging.

I like it. It's whether he can make enough putts, I guess. And it's Adam Hadwin. You know, he doesn't win at a high rate or anything like that. But there was a period for a long time where Adam Hadwin was sort of like Corey Connors. You know, it wasn't quite the ball striking-esque as what he was, but that was the tunnel at level, right? And maybe that's just gone away off him, that the light shone off him a little bit because he's had that kind of couple of seasons out. But I think he's a good player here in this weak field.

Yeah, the other thing I'd add about Hadwin, too, is he's pretty volatile, and he's not always the best ball striker, but he does pop a lot. So he may miss a bunch of cuts, but he also possesses a lot of top 10 upside. Like, he has three top 10s in his last six starts. As you mentioned, he's won the Valspar before. He's kind of...

fits the profile of the type of player that should play well at this type of track. So I totally understand the Hadwin play for me. I bet Chad Ramey at 40 to one was the first guy on my card. We've only got 10 rounds of data on Ramey Tom. And, and, you know, I've kind of gone back and forth on this a little bit with the, the corn fairy tour guys, where when they first came on, I was very hesitant because I just basically said, Hey,

I just don't, I don't know. Like I don't, I don't have any data on these guys and that has worked out fine. I think, you know, there's been a lot of them that have been bad in their first couple of starts. And there's also been a lot of them that have been awesome. And like, if you played Saheed Tagala and Cameron Young and Hayden Buckley at the Sanderson farms and you won all of the money, right. So, and at the Shriners too, like Ramey was,

14th at the Shriners, Buckley was top 10 at the Shriners, right? So, you know, if you have kind of the cojones to take on some of these guys, if you've been getting them right, you've been doing pretty well. My thing with them is now that we have a little bit of data on them, and I understand that it's still a small sample size.

but what I'm seeing with Ramey is that he's a really good iron player. He's specifically elite from a hundred to 150. And we don't have the proximity buckets from this course, but I kind of went through hole by hole and I was like, okay, what, what are they hitting on this hole? Like what, what are they hitting on that hole? And I think you're going to get a lot of approach shots from, we'll say 75 to 150 yards. And, um,

He's a good long iron player too, so he can handle those par threes coming home. He's accurate off the tee. He's coming off a 14th at the Shriners where he gained 6.8 strokes ball striking. Every tournament that he's played in this year, he's gained over 2.2 on approach. I love the way he's hitting it right now. I thought 40 was a pretty fair number on him. I've seen him as low as 28 at some places. So

So I went with Ramey at 40. Yeah, I mean, look, Ramey was another one for me. And there's one more that I've got from these graduates instead. But, you know, when I looked into Ramey a little bit as well, because for me, when you start seeing the Buckleys and the Prairie's at the prices that they are, you tend to have to differentiate, right? And who are the other guys that have been doing what they've been doing, but maybe not quite popping as much.

And Chad Ramey for me, over the last eight weeks in terms of the approach was fifth in this field. And that is obviously because of a weak field. He's been 26th and 15th in those two starts. But that's solid, right? That's really, really good. Like you mentioned, he's getting 2.2 in most or all of the events that he's started. And I look back for his

he's gone through he starts and he's got a second in Mexico uh it's obviously a different course than the Mayakoba but I just wonder again I don't know I haven't looked as much into it as I should do but if he's got a second there I think someone like Wes Roach has played well there before played well here so I think that could that could translate into a good thing and you look for his best finishes on the OWGR there's a lot of things that say coast after it or you know if things by the sea or whatever so I think that's a that's a good sign as well and

When you look at Chad Rabian and the finish that he had to the Corn Ferry season, I mean, it was ridiculous. First 11th, 19th, 4th, 7th, 18th, 11th flight. He looks like he's going to continue that on for at least the next few weeks. And as I said about Mito Pereira, you wonder how long it's going to last, right? But it doesn't need to last for much longer. You're only playing them these events in the fall and then we can see what's going to happen in the new year when the other guys come back. So to me, I think Chad Rabian is a really sharp player. I think that

He will be overlooked in favour of the Nitos and the Hayden Buckleys. But I think, I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think with Buckley, it's more lean towards his off-the-tee game as opposed to his, you know, approach play. I think that's more prestigious and I think that's going to get taken away a little bit here. So I think I'd rather focus on the guys that are really sharp with their irons than short approaches.

Yeah, you're right. You know that I think everyone is going to gravitate to Mito and Buckley may not be very popular because I think the price increases so jarring, but I, you haven't heard, there's, there's a couple mid tier guys in here as well. Corn for HR guys that I really love. And I think, um,

And I want to hear the, I want to hear the other guy that you were talking about. Cause there's one or two more of them that I want to talk about as well, but kind of the mindset that I have this week with them is like, okay, if we're talking about outrights here, um,

Some of the guys in this price range, like I know exactly who Patrick Rogers is, right? I have hundreds and hundreds of rounds of data on Patrick Rogers, right? And I have hundreds and hundreds of examples and experiences of Rogers popping in models and not,

having a good Russell Knox is a, is a good, another good example, right. Or, or Scott Stallings, all these guys, we have hundreds and hundreds of rounds of data on these guys of them consistently showing that they win maybe once every five years or something like that. Right. There's an element of mystery and unknown with, with some of these guys. And, and I'll, I'll, I'll use it to transition to talk about the gall a little bit. Who's another guy I like, like,

the guy just shows up and contends on, on his, on his, I think second or third tournament this year, maybe he played a couple of sponsors exceptions last year, but at the Sanderson, like he really, he really tastes that one. He had a, he had a two stroke lead heading into the, to the final round. And, and I get it, you know, he wasn't great on Sunday, but I think the fact that he went through that experience at the Sanderson really early on in his career, where,

he had a legitimate chance to win and, and, you know, two stroke lead going into Sunday, obviously it didn't work out for him, but similar to Sam Burns, we, we saw him put himself in the mix a bunch. And the first couple of times he was in contention, he was bad, but he just kept putting himself in position. And I like that the gala has already done that. Like I, I look at not to pick on Russell Knox, Russell, I like Russell Knox, but you know, I look at someone like Russell Knox and I,

five years and he hasn't sniffed a win. Whereas you get a guy like the gala who you just burst onto the scene and is already in a position to win. And I think there's a chance that we look back four or five months from now and are like, remember when we had the gala and Patrick Rogers priced right next to each other, like,

wow, like Russell Knox and Patrick Rogers and Scott Salling, they've been telling us exactly who the hell they are for years and years and years. And if we're talking outright, I'd kind of rather go with the mystery. Yeah, no, I completely agree. I think in the Gardner's case as well, you mentioned obviously how he went to the Sandisons and I think that

You saw visibly that he was going to struggle. I think he gave an interview and he sort of said, how does it feel to be leading after 54 holes? And he said, well, I think it's fake. I think he was so surprised that he was in that position already. But you go back and even at the Safeway last year, he was 14. I think he was only a couple of shots off the top five. So he's already been doing it. And I say this a bit like what you said there is that, okay, they've probably...

I old a couple of times, I suppose you could call it in their early starts, you know, trying to contend. But it's all good experience. Like Patrick Rogers will have

years on tour without really tasting real contention of what it's like. We talk about someone like Cameron Tringali and they throw it away so often. He's had two 54-hour leads in his whole career. He doesn't have that many occasions where he's right in the heat of the battle. Fegala's already had one. They've probably put him here for another one before the year's out of

of a real good opportunity. Like you say, Sam Burns is a perfect example of that. He's younger than people think he is because he's been around a little bit longer than people expect. Fegala's going to be the same. Yeah, the only thing with Fegala I'm not sure is I don't really know where he's going to excel. I don't know. I think the couple of guys I've got coming up is I've got indicators of what courses will suit. And I think Fegala, I think it's a good thing because I think he can actually play anywhere, but I just don't know what it is.

Yeah, you're right. He's really well-rounded, but he's not particularly elite at anything. Talk about who were some of the guys that you had coming up because I've got one or two more of them as well.

So the first ones that he's been around a boat or for a little while was Joseph Bramlett. And the current form looks worse than I think it is. You know, he's got 42nd and 58th to start, but he's ranked seventh and eighth in strokes gain approach in that time. And he's, you know, losing a ton of strokes, putting, and as we mentioned at the top of the show, like I think that can be negated a little bit here. And when you look at,

how he's performed in opposite fields or weaker fields. You know, he's got seven for the Byron Nelson, a ninth for the Puerto Rico Open, 11 for the Barbasol, 12 for the Barracuda, 13 for the Corrales. All events generally that could link into this in some way or another. Most of them, you know, like the Byron Nelson, there's a bit of wind there.

Top 18 finishes at Pebble and Torrey Pines as well, which, you know, in much better company, by the sea, bit of wind again. I really, really like that. And I just think, you know, there's not often that you get one of the better ball strikers in the field at this price range. And I just think he's a guy that people are going to look at the fact that Joseph Bramley is not young. He's been around for a decade and, you know, we've heard his name since the early, you know, early 2010s, but he's,

He's had injuries. He's had a really bad back. It derailed his career. And when you see these guys that, I'm not saying he's a Patrick Cantlay, but that's something like Patrick Cantlay had. He was good when he first came out, then he struggled. And it generally seems to be just injuries that cause him the problem. And I think that's the case with Bramley. I think he's actually a really good player. So the concern is obviously the putting. But I think just from what he's done in the weaker field events, I think there's actually some positivity there.

Tom, I am no stranger to Joseph Bramlett. I've been riding the guy for quite some time now to middling success. You know, what I think is interesting about Bramlett is I think he almost suffers a little bit from this course being shorter and his distance. I think that there's a perception around Bramlett, and I've certainly been guilty of it, of

you want to kind of deploy him on kind of these bigger ballparks where he can bomb away with driver, which is true, right? He has been great on some of those courses and his driver certainly is a weapon, but he's also just makes a ton of birdies and is a pretty decent wedge player as well, too. He he's a,

He's a better relative to the field long iron player. Like he is literally in this field, the number one player in proximity from 200 yards plus, but it's not like he's a bad wedge player either. So I really liked the Bramlett play. I agree. He's one of those players that he's been popping a lot for me and, and kind of in my numbers and, and I'm kind of high on him long-term. I think he's going to have a big year.

I think, I guess maybe a lazy comparison would be someone like a loot list. Like you talk about long irons, you talk about a bit of power off the tee and wider ballparks. And the fact that it's not just, they're maybe not the best at just like 20 under par all the time, but they tough it out on a pebble beach and story behind. It makes me, it reminds me of someone like him. But the other guy I went to that I think,

along the lines of what he did with Chad Raimi is Nick Hardy. And me too. Yeah, he's had a great start to the season, which has been overlooked, I think, isn't it? Because of what Hayden Buckley's done, because of what Mito Pereira's done, because of what Cameron Young did when he finished second in the

when you finished 36th and 26th it doesn't pop out on anyone's radar but that's two really successful weeks to start you rank 14th and 18th in my stats and stroke scale approach on those weeks making him the fifth best over the last eight weeks

And one of my things that I found a lot of confidence in was he was 14th at the Sony Open earlier in the year when he wasn't really, you know, even at the level that he is now. He shot a second round 63 there, a pair of 66s over the weekend and actually only finished a couple of strokes outside the top seven. So,

He hasn't won on the Corn Ferry, which is maybe a negative, but he had, I think it was 10 top 10s over the last two years. The consistency was just absolutely ridiculous. And when you look at his best finish on the Corn Ferry as well, it came in the Bahamas, which, you know, another bit of island golf, bit of wind there, can certainly get up. So I think that he can cope with those conditions. And I just think that

The price difference between him and Ramey compared to Buckley and Pereira is basically just because people have seen it happen so far for Pereira and Buckley, whereas we can envisage this happening for them as well.

Yeah, I was doing a little bit of a Wikipedia dive on Nick Hardy while you were talking there. Do you know that he qualified for the US Open when he was 15 years old and then did it again when he was 16 years old? Yeah, it's ridiculous. And I think, I don't know if he made a cut in either of those two, but he has made a cut in the US Open. I think he's been to the US Open more than people have been on the team. Oh, yeah. He was, he's more in the, I mean,

I mean, he's not like a Haskins Award winner or anything like that where Morikawa, but he has some serious pedigree. He's been the best at his trade since he was nine years old. Yeah. I mean, what was that? So 2015, he played in the US Open finish 52nd. And that was, what, six years ago now? That made him 19 at the time. So he is, I guess...

probably just one of those that people haven't thought of. Because when I look back at Nick Hardy, I was like, he's actually played a decent number of tour events just when he hasn't had status. Yeah. That Sony thing was weird too. I saw that. I was like, why is he playing the Sony Open and finishing 14th? And when you look, actually, there was a little period in between. But when he first came on the PGA Tour as a young player and getting starts, I guess because of what he'd done in his college career,

He was actually making cuts and quite consistently. So I don't think it's new to him. Like he's got to the PGA Tour. This is the first time he's had a card, but I think he's been, he's had the experience of making the weekend around this kind of company. I think that's going to be a huge thing for him.

Are you familiar with, I'm going to butcher it, are you familiar with the Patrick Herring quote about innocence? This has been talked about with Rory before too. So I forgot what, this was not at the Ryder Cup, but it was, I think, in one of the interviews leading up to the Ryder Cup maybe months ago. And Rory has done a good job about talking about this a little bit as well. But I think some of these guys, the...

When you're not...

broken down and worn in and kind of have built up all of this scar tissue sometimes. I think some of these guys, they just come in so fearless and so baby-faced and so excited. And I think this is a decent week to take a shot with some of these guys. I think it was... Patrick Harrington had a great quote where he actually got technical about it and talked about how

some of, it may have been in relation to Colin Morikawa where he was like, yeah, he just hits all the shots. Like he doesn't think about it. Like Rory used to have that. And now Rory has scar tissue and he thinks about it. And it's like, these guys, they don't think about it. They just hit the shots and they, they're so in love with the game of golf. They haven't been burdened by it yet or, or, or whatever. And, and, and I think that's,

That's kind of my attitude with some of these guys. Like I know who, I know what I'm getting with Ryan armor this week. Right. I don't know what I'm getting with Nick Hardy this week. I don't know what I'm getting with Saheep Diyal this week. I don't know what I'm getting with Ramey this week. And maybe I'm wrong. And maybe Chad Ramey turns out to be Patrick Rogers. Right. It's certainly possible. And maybe Nick Hardy turns out to be Scott Stallings. Right. But I,

I don't know. I think it's worth a shot looking at the numbers. Yeah, I mean, look, it's exactly that. I think that, I mean, there's one guy that comes to the end that kind of just supposes what I'm going to say here, but Ryan Armour, Kramer Hickok, like the 8th and 8th and 8th and 15th, and there's another guy that went 8th and 8th, I can't remember, was it David Hearn maybe, that, you know, they're guys that have just gone back to back and you say, okay, well,

you know, that they're very, very consistent. But yeah, so David Hearn, Ryan Armour, both back-to-back eight play finishes, Kramer Hickok, 15th and eighth, Hank Nebioda, third and 16th. You know, he's a guy I know you like, maybe not this week, but you know what their upside has been over the past few years. And Ryan Armour's got his win. David Hearn, I think, has got a win. You know, it has happened, but...

it hasn't happened at a clip that they'd like and two eighth place finishes is worth nothing if you bet at eight outrights right you want to get a guy that's got winning upside and I think Nick Hardy's got that I just looked back through you know a bit more of his college stuff while we were talking there and he played in the Arnold Cup team in 2017 that had Norman Jong Doug Gim Sam Burns Colin Orokao Maverick McNally Sean Crocker like that's elite company to be in that was I guess what he was thought of at the time maybe not as good as those guys but

I talked a lot about people like that on the podcast. I was at the Soros at the time. I said, when you're on that World Cup team with all those guys, does that push you forward to want to reach them? Does it make you feel a little bit disappointed they've got you there first or whatever? Does it weigh on you? And it's like, no, it's just excitement that that was the level you were playing at. You're seeing these guys succeed and put a pathway out there. And Nick Hardy's got that to follow as well.

Yeah, and I don't want to make it seem like I'm only playing these guys. We'll get into some of these guys now kind of going into the 50s and 60s up all the way to 100. I'll mention a few guys, kind of do some quick hitters on guys that I really like, and then I want to kick it to you. There's two more guys that I want to talk about a little more in depth, but a couple other guys that I just wanted to mention are

I know it seems like I was shitting on Russell Knox earlier. That's just as an outright play. I think this is a fantastic course for Russell Knox. He's played well here before. Really accurate driver of the ball. Unbelievable wedge player. Really good on these short coastal courses. The El Camaleon, which we talked about, I think it was...

It was five or six years ago, but he has a second and a third there. Also a 16th and a 23rd at this tournament. Or no, not a 16th. Even better than that. Yeah, hold on. I don't have that in front of me. Anyway, he's been good at the Bermuda as well. I think my issue with Knox is I don't know if I see the upside from an outright perspective, but Knox I think is a great guy. I'm certainly using him in the top 40 market.

Duffner is another guy that I'm not going to bet outright, but I really like, and I haven't heard his name mentioned all that much. He's, he's probably one of my, my favorite top 40 plays of the week. I think this is such a good spot for Jason Duffner.

First in opportunities game, 23rd in proximity from 75 to 100. Second in proximity from 100 to 125. He's just in this field, at least an elite wedge player. And he's coming off a good ball striking week in his last start at the Fortinet. And he's just hitting the ball really well right now. He's at six top 42 finishes in a row, dating all the way back to the John Deere gain strokes off the tee in six straight starts on approach in five of six straight starts.

he's really one of the better ball strikers in this entire field. And I think even too, what sets him apart from some of the other ball strikers who can't putt is that

Duffner is such a good short game too. And, you know, similar to Knox, I'm not sure if he can win, but I'm fairly confident that both those guys can finish T16 this week, which would make me very happy. So I want to throw out those two guys as finishing position bets. And then there's, there's two more guys that I think I'm going to bet outright getting up to 100, but I'll ask you first, who, who else in this range do you want to throw out before I give you my two last guys?

Yeah, so I agree with a lot of what he said firstly on Russell Knox. I was 11th and a 16th here. And I just, I just think that maybe that's his upside and that's fine for what you want him to do. Like, you know, I've seen him in, he's been very popular and outright bets, been coldies on him, which is always a good sign. But for me, like,

he's been brilliant and if you think Russell Knott's going to get back to the level that he was at before he kind of had his little breakdown and disappeared for a little while then he's one of the better players in this field. His pedigree is very, very good. I just don't know if he's quite going to get back to that. Jason Duffner, I mean I just look through it and the consistency of Jason Duffner in terms of finishing results over the last five events is surprising, right? Yeah. The 42nd is his worst at the Fortinet in that five event stretch which is

which is brilliant. And he's got the same profile of someone like the guy I'm going to come on to later on is that he's finished 58th here on his only start, but you think he should play better. Like he's played really well in wind in Texas and places like that as well.

Just some other names around here, I guess for me, you know, I liked Austin Eckro. I thought he was someone that could... We'll talk about Eckro. I think he could come in and do well. Bo Hosler, I think, could do something. For me, it was Brian Stewart was the next guy that I put up. And you mentioned him earlier, actually, when you were talking.

By rights, he looks like a terrible play. He's played here twice and finished 51st and miscut. He's out of form. He's just missing tons of cuts. But it's been on the number or just by two or things like that in recent weeks. And even at the Fortinet where he missed it by a few, he shot an opening round 77 but bounced right back with a 68. And when you look at how he ended the season, he had four top 15s in his last five events. And the profile, if...

If my correlating courses are right, then he should be perfect for this. You know, he's got two runner-up finishes in Mexico, four top eights at the Sony, four for the Puerto Rico, two top 15s at the RSM, which you mentioned as well. Like, that's got to be perfect. Like, he's number two in driving accuracy on tour in the last three months. I think a lot of that is probably because he misses the cut often. So, you know, the percentage is skewed a little bit there, but he hits enough fairways. He's just got to sort out the rest of his game, and I think he can here.

Yeah, no, I like Stewart a lot. I think he's essentially the same guy as Ryan Armour at a much better price. Really good wedge player, super accurate. And then the guy that I'm going to talk about as well that I like even a little bit better is Mark Hubbard, and he's one of the most accurate wedge players.

drivers of the ball on tour. He's a really kind of underrated iron player, really good short game and putter, sneakily consistent. Like he makes a ton of cuts. He's made 11 of his last 12 cuts and he's coming off nearly his worst putting performance in a year. And I listened to an interview that he did after where he talked about how confident he was in his ball striking right now.

And we just need that putter to turn around for him. And I think it will. So I love Mark Hubbard this week. I definitely think that he falls into the category of guys where you start to get dubious if they can win because they just haven't had a lot of reps in contention. But I may still end up biting the bullet on Hubbard at 70 to one. That may be ambitious as an outright play, but I'm fairly confident that this guy is going to have a big week. And then Ekro.

And then, and then that growth at 75 to one, Tom, the kid, the kid can really play. And I've known about him for a while because he belongs to the same golf club as my best friend in Oklahoma. And he practices out of there along with Matt Wolfe.

And kind of the running joke that we have is that all of the members claim that Eckrode is actually better than Wolf. And whenever they play in their practice games, Eckrode usually wins. Now, I say that kind of tongue-in-cheek. I don't want to put that burden on Eckrode. I don't.

Wolf had a two-stroke lead through 54 holes at the US Open, right? So before the aggravators come for me, I'm not saying that Eckrod is better than Wolf. But I do think he is going to be really good. And if you remember with Wolf...

He won on the PGA tour in his fourth ever start. Right. And this is Eckroth seventh start. So it's not as inconceivable as you would think. And I think the fact that his odds are lower than Brian Gay, who's lost to a ground total of two people in two years and

All these proven PGA Tour veterans who have, some of them have contended recently and some of them have great course history. And Eckroth is not even one of the Corn Fairy Tour darlings either, right? He's not even a Mito or a Nick Hardy or a Ramey or a Thigala that people have been all over on the Corn Fairy Tour.

I think the fact that his odds are this low is a little telling and I'm still, I'm going to bite at 75 to one. I think, I think there's a lot of upside. Like I said, we only have 20 rounds of data on him, but,

Through those 20 rounds, fifth in approach, a great wedge player, first in proximity from 125 to 150, really accurate off the tee. And the last time we saw him on the PGA Tour, he gained 7.7 strokes ball striking at the Wyndham on a similarly short positional Bermuda golf course in a much better field. So that would be my Eckro case.

Yeah, and just to add to that, because you've made the case for me really, is that he also had that 12th place finish at Myakoba when he first came out. And I think that's massive. And he's funny at Kroger because I tend to very much focus on the eight-week span for Strokes Cain approach, just to see who's hitting it really nicely recently. When I open that up to 15 weeks, you get the two starts that Kroger had done recently, and he was 12th and 6th in those, and he suddenly becomes second in the field in terms of Strokes Cain approach.

And, you know, I think a lot of what you say, even about Matthew Wolfe and, you know, it is tongue in cheek, right? But no one's sitting there saying he's going to win a major next week or, you know, next time we do one, sorry, but it,

you know the potential is there like you know we talk about guys and people say that Smiley Coffman is really good in practice rounds and they just can't do it on the tee Ekro hasn't shown any signs of scar tissue there's no like he's really good at practice he's just got to bring it to the course he has already brought it to the course and there is there is at this moment in time no negatives around him unless of course like you mentioned that people don't think he should be 80 to 1 which is again I think if

If you're avoiding backing people at 80-1 because they're 80-1, they should be 100-1 in the field like this, then you're just wasting your time. Just back them because at the end of the week, you're going to look at it and go, I really like that guy and he's just won and he was 80-1 and I said no because he should have been

125. Like it's just pointless to do the championship. You're not asking him to win at Torrey. You're not asking him to win Genesis, whatever, you know, you just asked him to win a pretty middling, not even a middling event, a terrible event at this stage. So yeah, I think I've got all the confidence in the world that Crow can do that. He'd come out of OSU as well, which is a big thing, isn't it? Because they play on Carson Creek really tough.

Oh yeah. Of course kicked my ass. Yeah. Yeah. And, and everyone, I talked to PCU line and he said that like, he could just like for the first year or so there was a college just couldn't qualify because he couldn't deal with Carson Creek. Like, I think that that's, you know, there's always been a massive thing for guys and that, that kind of channels them. You see the guys that come out there and they're all pretty good wind players. Like you line play very well in the European. So when he came out in the wind, uh, Ricky Fowler is obviously well known for playing good golf in the wind. So

there's signs there that if the wind gets up it should suit nor nor in two norns an osu guy yeah yeah so there's just there's just repeat success from those guys because they've dealt with it um it's different wins right and it's not coastal it's just whippy wind but wind is wind you've got to flight the ball down you've got to you've got to cope with it you've got to remain patient when things are blowing in your face so it's yeah I like that I think there's there's plenty of upside in Austin

And my boy Taylor Gooch. I don't know about Gooch in the wind, but I know he's going to win six times this year. So I agree. A lot of those guys that honed their teeth on Karsten, they're just players because that golf course asked a lot of you. And it asked a lot of me when I played it and I didn't step up to the task is all I remember. But anyone else?

I have one, one and a half more guys that I would mention in, but now we're kind of in the 100 plus bomb range. What about you? Anyone else in that 100 range before I give you one or two guys that, you know, I think have a shot.

So Brian Gay was the final one just because I just like you said he's been beaten by a total of two guys like I wrote in my checker column that just be wary he might be too short in terms of in terms of price this week and then he comes out and he was he opened like 150 to one in some places yeah he's just ridiculous I know he's missed the plane he's going to have to get there today and he's I think there's a washout today so you know he's going to suffer with lack of practice round but that guy knows how to play the golf course he's finished first and third so yeah

There's three times a year where he can win. This is one of them. Back him at 100-1. So that was my kind of feelings with Brian Gay. And then the other one that I didn't quite get to...

But I'm not quite sure. I don't have any negatives as to why I didn't. It was Kurt Kitsiyama, right? He's had two really good finishes in the European Tour in wind. He won in Mauritius and he was second in Oman. He won in Oman, I can't remember exactly now. But he's played really good in the wind on the European Tour at least. We don't quite know what he's going to be like

long term on the PGA Tour because we just haven't got enough evidence yet. But there's just no real reason. Yeah, two wins, sorry, in Oman and Mauritius. So both of them in decent windy conditions. You add that again, he played one in Qatar, which is well known for that. And his standout PGA Tour finish was at Pebble Beach and he was 18th there in 2020. So

For me, there's enough evidence that he will cope with this type of play. It's just whether he steps up in. You say whether he'll step up to the PGA Tour field, but this is basically the field level that he's been used to. So I think he's a decent player. 130 to one on the draft. Interesting. Okay, you're not the first to have mentioned Kitayama. So I'm going to have to do a little bit more digging on him.

I'm going to ask you a trivia question. I put together a model where I looked at wind play. I looked at Bermuda putting. I looked at performance on short courses. I looked at course history here. I looked at

performance on the other comp courses that we talked about, kind of all of the things that kind of profile this course in terms of the types of players that I think are best suited for this type of test. Can you guess who the number one player in that model was? It's not someone we've talked about yet. Is it a similarly old man compared to Brian Gay? I'd have to look at his age. He's definitely probably considered past his prime. I'll say that.

I have no, I have no idea how old he is. I'll, I'm going to look up how old he is right now and tell you he is, he's 39 years old. So it's not, it's not where I thought we were going with it. No. Um,

I don't know. I had genuinely no idea. I'm imagining whoever you're going to throw out to me, I should probably have paid more attention to. No, there's no fault in not paying attention to him. You kind of have to really dig into a guy like this. But Camilo Villegas.

He might be my strongest top 40 in DraftKings play this week. He's an excellent wedge player, excellent on Bermuda. Looking at his best performances this year, Honda, Heritage, Valspar, they're all shorter Bermuda positional, sometimes windy golf courses. Also the RSM last fall, he popped up. I love Vajegas here and it's not like he's playing poorly either. He gained

3.1 on approach at the Shriners and finished top 40 in a much better field than this. So I think Fijegas is kind of a sleeping giant there at a little over 100 to 1 at some places. And I think 6.8 in DraftKings. He's a guy that I have targeted. I think this is kind of, and by the way, I ran it

recently too. So I didn't like, I know that the Jagus was awesome in the early aughts, right? I, I factored that out, right? He's actually even later in his career when he's kind of lost that type of play that he was before. He's still, if he's popping up, it's happening on these types of courses. So I love a Jagus this week, man.

yeah I mean look early on his career it was probably based on he's one of the gym rats wasn't he he's quite powerful and that's not him anymore like he he has had to find a different way to do it he has a lot of horrible things going on in his life which have you know caused him to have to take breaks away from golf a lot but you

You know, the 35th at the Shriners, he was 34th on the Corn Ferry towards the end of the season. They're not massive results, but as you mentioned, 11th at the Valspar, 25th at the Heritage, 17th at Valero in the wind, 8th at the Honda in the wind, 32nd at Mayakoba, 6th at RSM. There is recent results. And then you look at the fact he won at Honda. He lost in the playoff at the RSM back in, you know, not even that, not as long ago as we're talking about the early start to his career. So, yeah,

The profile's there, man. He's playing good golf at times. He's one of those perfect ones that people are going to look and go, how did you get to Camilo Villegas? And you have to do what you've done to do it. And I certainly don't think that he's going to win.

Having said that, I think he's the type. I always think of these guys that if they get in position, like if he suddenly found himself in the lead after 54 holes, could he convert? And I always think that if you've got a bank of history of doing it, even 10 years ago or 15 years ago, whatever it was,

If you've got memories of doing that and you're confident enough in your ability when it comes down to the stretch, then I think that's everything. And I think about someone like him and I think about someone like Luke Donald. They suddenly had a good week and found themselves in a position to win. I think they could get over the line.

And you guys have the each ways in, in England, right? Yeah. So he's like eight places. Yeah. He's such a, he's such a perfect each way guy this week. Donald's interesting too. Our, our buddy Steve is on him too. Um, the only last guy that I would throw out there, Von,

Von Taylor's 150 to one. And if you put Von Taylor's statistical profile right next to Ryan armor and right next to Brian Stewart, who's one is 50 and the other one's 80, I promise you, you would not be able to tell the difference between the three guys. He's a great Bermuda putter. He's won at pebble beach before finished second at the my Coba six this year at Valspar. That's another shorter Bermuda. And I just look at all the numbers and I,

I don't really get why

this is a week where I think the Vaughn tailors of the world, it's getting baked into their price, except they forgot to do it with Vaughn Taylor. And, and I think, you know, I was gonna, I was interested in all the armors and the stewards and the tailors. And I was kind of the one that I was going to hone in on as, as a staple of my draft Kings lineups and, and my betting card would, would be the one that I found at the best odds. So I was glad to find some,

Taylor at 150 to one again, winning might be a bit ambitious, but I just, I think there's a lot of value on him at that number. And I don't even like the word value. I think it's a subjective thing. I like the way he's priced. So I think I'm going to bet him and play him top 40. There's, there's a chance that he garners a lot of ownership on, on draft Kings, in which case I may pivot, but, but I think in the betting markets, he's a really great option.

I think luckily for you Andy is he had that 40th place finished on his first start here but it opened with a fourth place after round one he shot 65 and it was only a bad second day and I'm

I can't honestly remember what weather split he got in, so it could be something as simple as that. And those are the things that if you really want to get seriously into finishing positions and see what they've done, you have to look at why Vaughan Taylor went from 4th to 25th after one round and then he had a bad weekend. It's not always just a case of

He just suddenly played badly after being in a good position. So I think there's more to it than that. I think he was 12th and 32nd his last two starts in a pro show. For me, that's a good pick. I think that we've seen him win at Pebble. We've seen him do things like that, so that's always a good sign. The one real long shot for me, and this has to come with a warning because it's not going to work out great, I don't think, but Michael Kim last year. I kept trying to find the signs. I love this.

to play him right and and

Every time I tried to do it, he would get close to the cut line and maybe miss it by one. Or he got through the cut and ended up doing nothing. I think it was at Phoenix I played him and maybe the Bayern Nelson as well. But you look at what he's done in his career. So he won the John Deere Classic, as we know, shorter course. He played really well in Texas. He got a 12th at the Shell Houston Open. Bay Hill, 17th, gets windy there. 35th at the Open Championship.

20th in Hawaii which I really really like and you know more just other stuff in Texas as well that just St Jude everything like that suggests that he can play in the wind his approach numbers have been really decent you know the last three times that he's made the cut he's finished 18th 17th and 17th in the field in my numbers in approach which actually puts him 8th in the field over the last 15 weeks in approach so yeah

I think it's more he has to get off the tee. I think his off the tee is not great. You might be able to correct me if I'm wrong, but I think off the tee and his short game is pretty dire. But again, the off the tee is probably going to be negated. He hasn't got a hit driver everywhere. The putter can change at any time. And I just took a lot of hope from that sort of Sony Open finish and a lot of the Texas stuff that he can play in this sort of conditions.

Yeah, that's a good pull, man. I really hadn't done much on Kim, and I go through almost everyone. I was shocked to pull up his page and see how good the irons have been. You're right, the off the tee has been pretty dreadful, but I look at situations where he's losing eight strokes off the tee at the 3M Open and 6.2 strokes off the tee at the Barbasol Open.

Those are driver courses and those are courses with water. And he's clearly just hitting the ball in the water off the tee a couple of times around. And that's really screwing him. His irons are great. And as you mentioned, you can club down on this course and be absolutely fine. So I like that play a lot, man.

I think I covered everyone that I wanted to talk about. Man, you were pretty sharp for 7 a.m. this morning, dude. I got to say, I was impressed. I wasn't sure if we'd be able to carry an hour-long plus show about the Bermuda, but I think we did pretty well, man. Yeah.

I'm one of those people that I have a mode up and the trouble is you'll see it in my writing as well. I feel like I can't write a lot. And then suddenly I've written 3000 words about the Bermuda and suddenly I've spoken an hour at seven o'clock in the morning about the Bermuda as well. But I love it, man. Like, you know, the guys that you've dived in, I haven't even really thought about. I mean, just Milo Vajegas did not come up in my radar at all. And that's not to say you're wrong. It just means I haven't got there for whatever reason. I can't,

I can't, I don't know that there's, there was one other guy that for some reason it doesn't look like he's playing, but I think he is. It's JJ spawn. Uh,

Um, he has some, some good stuff. I mean, he, I think I'm pretty sure he's still in the odds on, on drafting sports, but where I was just looking now, um, I can pull up, I can pull up, uh, Rob Bolton's Twitter too. And there's been so many withdrawals. Yeah. It's been like 25 different people putting out, but you know, you just look for your profile just while you're doing that. He was second at the RSM. He was third at the Mayakoba sick for the heritage. Um, where else have you, you know, 21st at the Honda, um,

He's just got some really good finishes in those types of events and he just plays well in these sort of weak fields. 35th last time out at the Shriners. He was second at the Boys Open behind Grace and Sig when they were sort of playing for their cards. So when it matters, he seems to do well. I guess a lot of it is putting with JJ Spawn. It never seems to come around when you need it to and then they're not a really good person. We can tell what he was ironed, but...

Yeah, I think there's enough in JJ Spawn in his history if he is playing. I'm pretty sure he is. It's just that he may have just been taken out. It might be that sometimes... He's playing. Yeah, he's playing. I didn't want to interrupt you, but he's playing. Yeah. Yeah. Sometimes it's J.J. Spawn instead of JJ Spawn. Sometimes you just get taken off. So yeah, JJ Spawn, I think, is someone that's worth keeping an eye on as well.

Love that. Yeah. Once we start getting into some of these guys, the cases I could make for some of these guys, they get pretty interesting. But yeah, I think it's a field that I'm not, like I said, I'm not more excited for a tournament like this than a tournament with great players in it. But

I think there's real opportunity. And I think we were, um, we were able to highlight some of the reasons, uh, in our research, why some of these guys, um, that maybe we, we don't get to talk about a lot or don't get to write about a lot, why, uh, this may be a pretty good spot for them. So, um, Tom, thank you one more time so much for joining me, man. And before we get out of here, um, plug everything that you're doing this week.

Yeah, so for me, you can find me on Twitter at TomJacobs93. I've had an OddsChecker article already come out on the OddsChecker US site for my early leans. I've also got a First Round Leader article coming out as soon as the odds go live for that as well. No podcast for me, but normally Lost Words is our podcast that you can find on Apple, Spotify, wherever. And the Mayo Media Network will return with Sky next week as well, just no European tour, which has actually helped

me get enough views of them for this because if it was alongside the Portugal Open I'd probably be more focused on that but like you said man like you know am I more excited in the Bermuda Championship probably not but I think it's a tournament that you can get an edge in if you're willing to put the time in because I don't think many people are

Tom, thank you one more time so much for joining me, man. And I am incredibly excited to do this again with you, my friend. I love how I'm growing. I'm growing all these friendships in England now and I love it.

Yep. Andy, whenever you're over here, we'll treat you to a beer or whatever it is that you want to drink. And thank you for having me on. You're doing really good work and it's a pleasure to chat to you. Great golf out there too, right? Are you in London or are you kind of outside?

I'm in Kent. So I'm back out of London. So you know where the, the open championship was at Royal St. George. I'm sure. Yeah. So, uh, I'm, I'm surrounded by a lot of links golf courses. The trouble is, is I can't play golf very well. So if you do come over here to play golf, I will probably carry your bag. I might hit a few shots, but, uh, you know, I enjoy the walk as opposed to actually hitting the ball. Um,

But, you know, we're really spoiled for really good golf courses around here if, you know, we've got so many decent tracks. So if you ever get over here, I can point you in the right direction. All right, man. That sounds incredible. Yeah, I've heard the same thing. I'm a big kind of an architecture nerd, so sometimes I'll go looking and have just watched a lot of videos on kind of the golf out there, and it's definitely something that –

I want to experience it's on my bucket list. I think if we last too much longer, we're going to go into some weird Lynx Golf rabbit holes as it's way past my bedtime now. I'm getting a little delirious. We stay on for 10 more minutes and I'm going to be asking you like,

agronomy questions about Royal St. George's. Yeah, exactly that. As much as it's early for me, it's late for you. So as much as you're thanking me for coming on early, thank you for staying up. It's funny these time differences. You're there in LA and I'm here near London, England. It's amazing that we can do these kinds of things. It's nice modern technology allows it. It does mean some tired eyes and some foggy brains at times as well.

I think we did a good job though. All right, Tom. Thanks so much, buddy. We'll talk soon, my friend. All right. That's it for the show. Special thanks to Tom. One more time. We'll be back next week for the Myakoba. I'll catch you next time.

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