cover of episode American Express & Super Bowl Picks with Geoff Fienberg

American Express & Super Bowl Picks with Geoff Fienberg

2022/1/18
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Geoff Fienberg: 本期节目讨论了美国运通高尔夫赛的投注策略,重点关注赔率较低的选手,因为该赛事历史上曾出现过许多高赔率的赢家。他认为Jon Rahm虽然实力强大,但并非在所有球场上都能发挥最佳水平,因此在选择投注对象时,需要综合考虑选手的实力、球场适应性和赔率等因素。他还分析了多位选手的优劣势,例如Seamus Power和Abe Ancer等,并最终给出了自己的投注建议。在超级碗预测方面,他看好Buffalo Bills队。 Andy Lack: Andy Lack与Geoff Fienberg就美国运通高尔夫赛的投注策略进行了深入探讨。他认为人们对Jon Rahm的评价过高,其成就与Collin Morikawa相比并不存在明显的差距。他更倾向于选择赔率较高的选手进行投注,并分析了多位选手的优劣势,例如Corey Connors、Will Zalatoris和Justin Rose等。在超级碗预测方面,他看好Tennessee Titans队。

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The hosts discuss Jon Rahm's performance and perception in the golf world, comparing him to other elite players like Morikawa and Justin Thomas, and debating whether his reputation is justified by his wins and consistency.

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All right. Inside golf podcast. Great show today with Jeff Feinberg talking American express and some football picks at the end. Sorry for no Sunday preview show. We're going to be back next week for Torrey Pines.

Um, always a blast talking with Jeff. We can go on forever. So I apologize for this running a little long, but I think there's some pretty good info in there. I feel like I'm seeing the board really well right now and let's keep it going for another week. All right, let's get to the show.

All right, Jeff Feinberg is here of Mayo Media Network, FTN, my new colleague at Odd Checker. Jeff, we talk a ton, but I feel like it's been forever since we've gotten to catch up on a podcast together. How's it going, buddy? Goes well, my man. Happy to join you. I apologize if I was like diva-ed you in any way the last couple weeks. I'm normally pretty easy-minded.

It's a book. My life isn't that entertaining, but it seems like I feel bad. I've made you dance a little. Yeah, you were elusive. I kept teasing you, and then two weeks in a row, we couldn't make it work. But finally, we're here for a tournament that I would say my excitement level is at like a 5.54. Yeah, that's fair. I don't really have any issues with it. I can't stand the three-quarter...

As I say, I don't have any issues. Anytime there's a course rotation, just as a wrench that I don't really enjoy for gambling, you add in the presence of Jon Rahm and, you know, it creates a bit of a situation. But nonetheless, I don't know, full field, there's a lot of big numbers.

It's an event that has historically rewarded, you know, not to put anyone down, but not just the mid-tier, but like the higher mid-tier and job squad have ruled here historically. Like some of the biggest numbers, Long, Landry, some huge ones here, despite the presence of an occasional hyper elite. Yeah, I agree. Well, let's dive right in because I...

I want to talk about Jon Rahm, actually. But to set the scene for everyone, me and Jeff are talking about the American Express. It's three golf courses. I've actually played all of them. I've played a lot of golf in Palm Springs. They're fine, not incredibly interesting, but a lot of water. There's only shot tracker on one of these courses. So it's kind of a hard tournament to follow, as you mentioned, Jeff. We've got the stadium course, the Jack Nicklaus Tournament course, and La Quinta Country Club course.

All of them play very easy. There's a 54-hole cut this week. So Thursday, Friday, Saturday, all the players will rotate and get one round at all three. And then on Sunday, they will all play the stadium course. Like I said, Jeff, all three of these courses, they're pretty similar. They're all short, par 72, Bermuda, overseeded with POA greens. It's like a California strain of Bermuda that is a little bit different from what we see in Florida, but...

not alarmingly so they're very easy there's a fair amount of water but nearly every hole you can make birdie on and as you mentioned that we've we've gotten a real eclectic mix of winners you know a couple massive long shots including adam long at 600 to one his one here and you know

this tournament a lot will come down to who can make the most 18 to eight to 15 footers for birdie. So that's why you'll see some of the long, longer shots. When, what are you kind of, what are you kind of looking for this week, Jeff, as you approach this tournament, are you kind of taking that strategy of, because this is more of a putting contest, you're kind of looking to sprinkle a little bit farther down the board or,

Yeah, so I haven't made a bet under 50 to 1 yet. So obviously, I guess because... And that doesn't... Listen, we'll talk about it. There's a handful of guys I'm clamoring to bet. I just haven't been able to differentiate or make that decision. But yeah, I mean, as we mentioned, this is an event that's awarded over 50 to 1.

It is an event. It is a setup that I'm sure we'll talk about it because it's a theme all over my head and how I want to handle Jon Rahm events. But maybe this isn't the place to start that because this would definitely be an event where Jon Rahm is the best player in the world. Like there's no course fit for Jon Rahm. Every freaking course fits Jon Rahm.

That being said, his ultimate talents in many ways can get neutralized at a course like this. And a lot of those guys that are 50, 100 to one and above are,

they can just get so hot. Like they can get unconscious. They're professional golfers. They can get unconscious on these types of courses that are pretty much just plotted out there, fire in a wedge and roll with the putt. It's not an unfamiliar situation on tour, but it is from a betting perspective, one where, yeah, I'm definitely inclined to go start. At least my first instincts were all from farther back of the board.

So I'm of the exact same mindset. I haven't made a bet under 50 to one either, but I still want to talk about the favors. You mentioned ROM. I'm looking at odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, but I would encourage everyone to check out the odds checker golf grid to find the best odds in the marketplace. It's an extremely useful tool.

We've got Rahm at 5-1, Jeff Cantlay at 9-1, Scheffler at 16-1, Sung Jae at 18-1, Gooch at 20-1, Finau at 20-1, Corey Connors at 22-1, Anser at 25, Seamus Power at 28, and Matthew Wolfe at 28. Those are all the guys below 30 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and then there's a little bit of a drop-off after that. I want to talk about Rahm first because...

I don't know if I view him the way that you view him. I kind of want to push back a little bit on it. And I feel like people talk about Rahm like he's this world beater and he's on pace to be an all-time great. But the guy who's actually on pace to do that is Morikawa. And people don't even consider him the best player in the world. He got...

picked after Hovland in your draft. And between those two, the resumes aren't even close. But for some reason with Rom, he gets talked about in this different light. Yeah.

And I want to ask, what is it about him that you think separates him? Because I'm not seeing that gap between him and Morikawa or him and the other elite. So I want to hear your case because I know you feel strongly about this. Okay. For starters, in many ways, you are right. The guy won one time last year.

year. So for me to pivot any sort of golf betting strategy based on his appearance or any golfers, any golfer being in the field who isn't Tiger Woods in his prime, luckily enough, I was never betting golf weekly during those times, but

You're right. I do fight back on the Rom Morikawa, despite it not being there in the win column. And in many respects, maybe Morikawa is like Tom Brady and Rom is Peyton Manning. And it's just, no, my eyeballs like, yes, one is winning more, but my eyeballs tell me one is more talented. I don't want to hold to that analogy because it's probably not fair and it's probably easy to poke holes in. But

And it's in many ways for me, what I anticipate is probably going to happen with Jon Rahm as every year, every year since he's come onto the scene. No, it's not being represented in wins, but...

but you see all for a guy that's it's impossible to get better. He actually gets better. And there's things that he acknowledges he needs to work on. And every single year he gets better at those things, both mentally and physically. And then you take Hawaii. Yeah. It's a total vacation. Cam Smith was like on vacation, literally, I think a week at the place before the tournament started and he played fantastic. And Rob to me is out there for a picnic.

He's not like he's not even full go yet. And that's what you get. He's just going through the motions. Cam Smith needs an absolute ceiling. Rom just shows up. I will fight back on the Morikawa thing.

And maybe from an outright betting perspective, you could tell me just shove this up my ass, which is fair. But ROM just feels that much more consistent. Like I'm not afraid of a ROM floor. Like I guess I am afraid of a Morikawa floor. That being said, it's outright betting. So it doesn't really matter. But now that we're both here in this world where ROM exists,

is going to be six and a half to one a lot, and Morikawa is going to be six and a half to one a lot. That's a lot different than the days of Morikawa being disrespected at 30, 35, maybe even 40. And sometimes you could argue even 20. Like now that they're going to be on par from an odds perspective, I'm fully wrong, like 98 out of 100 times.

Interesting. Listen, I agree. I understand why his odds are so low. I don't have a dispute with that. I think his odds are so low for the same reason why Xander's odds are lower than they probably should be. That's not the books saying that Rahm is so much more likely to win the tournament than everyone else. They just have to protect themselves against the top 10 and the top five bets. And Rahm has the highest floor in golf. As you mentioned, he

top tens a lot just like xander and that's why his odds are lower than people think they're not lollygag top tens they're usually he's contending or at some point in the week and you're like oh shit he's gonna freaking win and he doesn't and he doesn't and he makes it impossible to live bet like credit to all the cam smith backers there last week

Andy credit to all of them. They hit it. If I am right about Rom, like they got one and they're, you know, they're laughing about it. Maybe as Rom takes down these other ones, but you couldn't eat the cash out on cam Smith. I've never seen. I know it's crazy. I was saying cash out options in a tie on Sunday.

It was simply because of John Rahm. So there's the flip side of all of this. There's the pre-tourney numbers. You know, as you mentioned here, DraftKings seems like the mean teacher set their lines this morning. I think we all kind of expect them to get a bump up. But, you know, sort of line shopping. There's two guys under 20 to one. Like, this is the tournament I love to bet. I love to bet. And while I do believe in what I feel about Rahm,

I will acknowledge this is probably not the event for me to pivot in any kind of strategy. But yeah, I guess a lot of what I feel about ROM is more so what I feel is coming as opposed to what the data would indicate has happened in many respects. Right.

I think we're going to all be screwed. Well, yeah, the data shows that he should have more wins than he already has. And the wins are coming. I just don't like, I don't see the gap, right? I think people really want to anoint players

the next guy in a post-Tiger world. And I don't know if it's because Rom is likable or something. He is likable. I think he's really well-spoken. I love the way that he handled the COVID thing at the Memorial and took it on the chin and bounced back. I really like him in interviews. I think he is articulate and thoughtful and he is an excellent, excellent goalkeeper.

golfer. But in terms of who he is as a golfer, I just think the pendulum has swung way too far with him. It reminds me a lot of, and Jeff, you'll appreciate this because you're a football guy too, but it reminds me a lot of that time when all the talking heads on first take would be like, you know who's really, really... And I've made this analogy before. You know who's really, really...

Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson should have all these MVPs. No one talks about Russell Wilson. And it's like, okay, yeah, we know. But now maybe the pendulum has swung a little too far in the other direction. Like no one thinks Jon Rahm sucks. Jon Rahm's awful.

awesome. He's just not like, let me ask you this. Do you think ROM's best day is better than Colin's best day? Like what was a better performance to you? What ROM did at Torrey or what Colin did at Royal St. George's? What ROM did at Torrey or what Bryson did at Winged Foot?

Like, I just, I don't see that gap. I don't see that like five win season coming. I just, I think there's too much parody and I think people treat it like it's a gap and I don't think there's a gap. It's a conversation. I agree. No. And this was the conversation in many ways. It sounds silly to say, but the one we had before the U S open, where it was like, we kind of all agree ROMs the best, but this gap probably doesn't feel as warranted as,

As you know, as it is, then goes on to win the U S open. I am of the belief that like, he's still the best and the gap might be too big, but he's deserving of this place. And I believe that he's better than all the guys that you mentioned.

Now, when Bryson wants to play his ceiling golf or Morikawa wants to play their ceiling golf, there's nothing even John Rahm can do unless he wants to play his ceiling. Like, there's so many good players, and winning is so hard. I will push back. I think he is that good. I am one of the people that do believe that.

he is that good and that there is a gap and that a few guys that I thought could potentially share number ones in the world. I don't think they are. I think that conversation is, is a lot smaller. It's a lot smaller. Well, it is on belief, right? Like, and you may be right. He may turn out to be really great, but it is a thing with him. The ROM thing seems to be buoyed by belief because he,

His pure resume is not close to Morikawa's. His pure resume is not close to Justin Thomas. He's one year younger than Justin Thomas and has half the wins, right? Justin Thomas is 28 and has 14 wins. Rahm's 27 and has seven. But he gets talked about like he's 100 times better than Justin Thomas now. I think he's close to almost 100 times better than Justin Thomas.

I mean, a hundred times I'm using hyperbole, but to me, there's a clear gap between those two players.

Based on what, though? Because the resumes don't add up. On the talent, on the eyeballs, on the last couple years. For me, I've been... Listen, some of these I'll be right about. Some of them I'll be wrong about. I've never feared a player like this. I haven't. I thought Jordan Spieth was overrated. And for a little bit, I was wrong. And then I ended up being right. Right.

And I was such a big DJ fan. And we had that blip, I guess, with Day One five times in a year when that mail reminded me about today. But I've never like literally thought I don't some of this stuff I don't want to get involved in because this guy's playing. Or I need to want to go look at top American markets because I don't want to bet full field. Now, again, this this tournament is probably a horrible example for me.

to introduce this. But I believe it's his world and we're going to live in it. Okay. I disagree. I mean, I think he's great. I think it's a conversation, but I don't see that eye test wise like that. I see his ceiling...

around the ceiling is is better than everybody's and when i bet on guys i bet on ceilings i like that's what you gotta do to make out right bets i was at that 60 to 1 i'm like well i'm betting that bet's probably gonna lose but i'm betting on that guy's ceiling because to win on the tour unless you're one of three guys you need your a game to win a tournament

I don't know. I, I, I like, I look at what Rom did at the U S open and I was there that week. He hit the ball out of bounds on the back nine. No one wants to talk about that. And it took an epic collapse from Louie. It took Colin three putting from eight feet on the back nine to lose the lead. It took a triple bogey from Bryson. It took a double from Rory to get out of contention. It took all these guys that just fell apart. And I look at what Bryson did at winged foot and

And I look at what Colin did at Royal St. George's to go to fucking England, never played a round of golf at links in his life. And Ron, the first thing he says after he wins the U S open is like, this is the, this is the most comfortable course for me. It's a perfect course for his game. I don't see how his ceiling is. I like, I look at what Bryson did at wing foot. I played wing foot. Like what he did that week was like,

I can't besmirch any of it. It set up perfectly in many ways for how Bryson wanted to play. That was him and Wolf back at the end there. And there were other big bombers that got knocked out of that thing, no doubt. Morikawa, like, that was amazing. That was unreal. He also got a Lynx championship that felt like a summer day in Florida. That's true. Yeah, I don't...

To have this conversation is frustrating because to frame it in different ways, it makes it like I have to put people down. No, I know. Do you know what I mean? Yeah. So I don't want to do that. Even when I'm like of the elite players, like Justin Thomas is by far my least favorite. Like, da, da, da, da. Yeah, yeah. Justin Thomas is still freaking amazing. He's the best. But, you know, if I'm asked to make arguments with Morikawa and –

then I get framed in this conversation in this light where I become anti-Justin. That's not like, no, I know. I don't think anyone thinks that by the way. No, I know. But cause you can say something that is snappable, like in a, in, in the context of the sentence, um,

And then that's what some people like throw back at you. I don't know. No. And I'm not afraid of people throwing my words back. I've been doing this in front of a microphone long enough. And yeah, maybe this is just for me, like did, did January hyperbole. We'll, we'll see. But nah, nah, he's not going to get got by like also rands anymore. You want to get John Rom. You're going to have to be one of those. Like,

Super specials, super specials. Once, once this thing gets heated up and Andy, you might appreciate this more than anybody, but to some of the guys that are like deep in it, like his peers, they admire the most about John Rom is he might have of all the elite players, maybe any player in golf.

the most, they claim he has the most like fixable on the fly swing. Like he has this simple three point approach that he can just simply go back. It's very repeatable. Fix it on the fly. He can get back into it. And some of these other top players, they're either like with it or they won't. And if they're not getting back into it requires like two hours on the range or not, you know what I mean? Like a full,

call with the coach. This guy has simplified it so much for himself. I'm impressed. And wow, Feinberg's impressed with Rom. No, I don't know. Obviously, I am expecting something huge. So that's where I come from. And just like you said with the anti-JT thing, it's not an anti-Rom thing for me. I think Rom's

I'm more anti-perception of Rom, not anti-Rom as a person or a golfer. I just want to see it. I just want to see that five-win season or that two-win season or something because you do a blind resume test with him and everyone else, and it's just not there yet. It doesn't mean it can't get there. I've been wrong many times before as well. Maybe it's Peyton.

Manning lost all the big playoff games was able to get one versus the Bears shitty Bears in the rain like or yeah yeah that's the one that he got oh he got another one with Denver that I forgot but you that was a different that was like his Phil Mickelson win like uh

On the back half. Sure. Despite Denver having an amazing. Sure. And Ron's already got a big one. Listen, the fact that I do it, the guy won one time, the guy won one time. Like people said to me, Feinberg, like you got to just keep your composure. You hit your quota. Why are you letting a guy who won one time last year, make you think you should change your approach. And then I reflect and think those guys are right. They're probably right.

And I haven't made the decisions. The bets I made already didn't include hitting the each way button as much as I thought they would. So here comes fight like, you know, and what did this week do? We got like seven guys under 30 to one. And I saw Hasselbauer's tweet say we got 100 of the 130. We pretty much got 100 over 100 to one. So that's that is, you know, to steal his comment. It's the wrong effect.

But speaking of the ROM effect, you can also make the case that the plus 650 at bet 365 compared to his nine to one to win the Masters is value. Yeah, maybe. I mean, this is a... I'm not betting it, but... Yeah. No, nine to one to win the Masters, eight to one to win the Masters, 650 to win the MX, or Cantley and then Scotty Scheffler's the next on the tout. Yeah. Yeah.

No, I get the Masters comparison in terms of weak fields. And we would argue that Masters 8-1 is just a bad number anyway, right? So that doesn't make this one a good one. Yeah. Comparing it to a number that, like, I love Jon Rahm. Yeah. And I think Masters also weeds out a lot of...

It weeds out a lot of the best players, whereas I think legitimately like 125 out of 140 players could win this tournament if they catch a hot butter. Great point. You're betting the Masters. You're pretty much taking the Brooks Koepka approach like I'm playing 30 guys here. Yeah, exactly. It's one of 30. This event, and we've seen in past history, it's a complete...

Yeah. I mean, yeah. From Andrew Landry to Patrick Cantlie and anywhere in between could be ROM's Sunday fate match. All right, Jeff. Well, I love arguing with you. That was fun. But we should probably move on to the rest of the guys in this tournament. So let me ask you this. Are you the reason you haven't made a move under 50 yet?

Who are you considering? Are you considering some of these guys like Sung Jae, a Gooch, a Finau, a Corey Connors, an Anser, a Scheffler? Do you have a Wolf I've seen a lot of steam for? Even Patrick Reed at 35-1. Who do you think would be the guy under here? Because I have a couple guys that I'm kind of deciding between. So that's always the fun and hard part of...

of this is crossing off the names. And then from that finding reasons not to play certain guys, but I could go many different ways in and of this group. I think M off a miscut, like is incredibly live, uh,

You know, Finau we saw go out in the final group last year. Although, you know, me as a Finau super fan, I like to think courses that neutralize his strengths are probably not the places I like to bet him. Corey Connors.

I bet Connor's an answer last week. And you know how tough this game of stepping, you know, you go from one week to the next and you still think guys are good fits and you bet them last week. So like, should I ride them again? Should I step off? So those are guys I'm both definitely thinking about here. Um,

I, like everybody else, am obsessed with Seamus Power. Where even last week, you know, in all the popular write-ups of him going around, you had to, like, triple-take what you were reading. Like, are these stats right? Mayo put out a stat about, you know, like...

Guy's pretty much T20, T25ing at like an 80% clip. And then you have to go look at it because you're like, maybe I've got that wrong because that doesn't sound right. You look at it like, holy shit, it's true. You saw how he putted last week. We're going to a course that you could argue is a better fit for him. And then there's Abe Anser. Like if you like your models, you Pete Dye anything, it's this guy.

It's this guy. He's got the third. He's got the playoff loss. He seems to do everything here, and he just couldn't hit a putt last week. It seemed like he struck the ball well instead of a ball that goes out of OB. So, yeah, I named a lot of players, but I'm having a hard time in this range, and for that, I might even skip it entirely if I can't make a decision, to be perfectly honest.

I think I'm probably leading Connors. Now, Connors was a really popular pick last week. I bet him last week. A lot of people bet him last week. A lot of people played him in DraftKings, and he was great. I mean, the ball striking didn't miss a beat.

It looks like he's starting to putt a little bit better. And I don't think for whatever reason, he's going to be half as popular as he was last week. I think people don't like betting the same guy two weeks in a row. I think they're going to say that his putter can't keep up in a birdie fest. He hasn't been great at this course. I don't know. I actually think he's really close and I may just keep riding him.

I was just really hoping for a 28, which is what I bet him at last week, like somewhere between 26 and 30. And I'm seeing the best I can get on him is 24. Whereas I think you can find like a 33 on answer. And I think that's fair. I think, I mean, answer, uh,

answer hit the ball really well last week too. And he has a much better history at this course. So for me, I'm kind of deciding between Connors and answer. Yep. As I kind of said to Mayo earlier today, because I probably, cause I did bet both of them last week. Those are the two that are probably staring me down the most. And it's now that tough conversation. I'll throw this at you. It's like, Oh,

oh, I love Corey Connors. I love Taylor Gooch. The next time we see Sam Burns, like you love these guys, but now to bet them, you have to stare at the guy at the exact same number beside them and be like, oh man,

like i could bet that guy yes same price yeah and that guy is you know listen we all i just did the rom thing which you pretty much put back like bro you're just buying into name value no just you know what i'm not saying you you think rom is just name value but no i think yeah like yeah of course it's

It's just, you know, now it's like, oh, man, you could bet Corey Connors for the same number as, like, Sungjae M. It's like, I love Connors, but...

Like, can I do that? Does that make sense? Like just the draft Kings number on Gooch is ridiculous. You shop it and you hope that it raises, but anywhere in this tier, you're like, I love Taylor Gooch. He's been even before Taylor Gooch became this player. We all liked and credit to Andy. Cause last year, like you officially like early in the year, you planted my flag. Yeah. Yeah.

But more from that prop market, it was great to see him win. But secretly, Guccia's been an MX guy. This is a course he's loved. Now he comes to this course with a confidence that he never had in the years that he played well here. That's an angle I always think about. When you have guys that played well at courses before they...

became different level of players and now they get to go to that course as that confidence level of player it's always something that makes me like okay well now what now what so there's that but to bet taylor gooch you're like i could bet you know i don't want to make it like tony finow some credible preeminent force but it's a top five machine guy you know so

the decisions now with some of these guys are there. They're fun, but they're, they're not fun. And they can turn Mondays into very long days, Andy. So you're not drawn to Wolf because I think Wolf is a guy that a lot of people are into this week. And I, I, I understand that, but it feels like the two names that both of us kind of glossed over quickly were Wolf and Fiat.

Finau, which is I'm surprised to hear you talk a little bit more about Connors and answer before Finau. So what are your thoughts on Finau and Wolf? You like the other guys a little bit more? Okay. Wolf. Who we got here? It's like Wolf, Scheffler. Connors, Sanjay. Wolf, Scheffler, Zalatoris are the big three that haven't played yet this year.

Finau hasn't. No, Finau played the TLC. Oh my God, you're right. He played in Hawaii. Yeah, that would be it in terms of this portion of the Oxford. And I don't know if you care about that, but Mayo pointed out to me that there is a strong clip of guys that already teed it up. It was all but one that were able to win here. That's not enough to...

move me off, but it's maybe a little... Yeah, I think it matters. I think the reps are important if you played in Hawaii, 100%. I don't know. I'm not... I get why people love Wolf

Just kind of, and this is just, the guy can absolutely, on a course where every hole feels birdie-able, like this just feels like a place where he can be unconscious. Or if I'm not watching Thursday or Friday, you just cue up the shot tracker and it's like, oh shit, Wolfe is 99% out of the gate. I'm just not there. I'd rather bet answer Connors than Wolfe. As it pertains to Finau,

Kind of alluded to it. In some respects, I feel like Finau, I want to hold myself to betting Finau at places where like long and accurate off the tee, like where his strength is not neutralized.

Like what he does absolutely best is not neutralized. And I'd argue birdie parties historically. I mean, he's contended in just about every event. I can name birdie parties where he went off very late, you know, Minnesota, this one last year. But I don't know. Birdie parties. Just, I don't know. I, I'm not, I'm not totally there. Me neither. Yeah.

What about... Let's kind of move into some of the... Like Reed, Henley, Tringale. 50 on Zalatoris is a good number. Yeah, I like that a lot. I've actually moved on that. So Reed... You could just blindly go with Reed here if you want. Yeah. I mean, my...

If the logic on betting Reed is he's a winner, you just sort of make a blind move. Yeah, it's been really bad, though. Like, I think some people think about Reed with the no form thing. Like, you go back and look. Like, he hasn't run this cold yet.

in a long time and we haven't even when he runs cold we're not like bottom of the barrel bright red on fantasy national exactly exactly like oh it's cold it's hard to replicate week to week but it's never kind of bottomed out on like the off the tee like it's never been strengths but there's levels of bottoming out that we never have experienced before so i'll acknowledge that

I don't know if I could pull the trigger because I never bet the guy and I make a lot of mistakes, but never betting Russell Henley has not been one of them. That being said,

As someone who didn't bet him last week, Andy, I don't feel the scar tissue. Listen, I acknowledge it was bad. And I think the broadcast tried to protect him a little. He shot one over on the back nine. He played way too... He changed the way he played, too. He couldn't make one birdie on the back nine at wildlife. You go into halftime...

up 20 and you get two first downs and score no points, you're probably going to lose the game. Yeah. You're probably going to lose. And it took to the very end in a playoff for Hideki to get him. And I could think of all the 15 or 10 footers on the back that just missed for Russ and that's golf. But I didn't, I don't feel the burden. So like I could look at it as this guy's playing really well. He's going to a course that absolutely suits what he does. Yeah.

It's hard for me to pull the trigger because I don't really ever bet the guy, but I don't mind it at all. I thought about it hard if I had to make an early one-and-done decision this week. I think people could be sort of scar tissue or you just sort of have that memory, but the memory is also a guy that played fantastic all but 1-9 for four days. Yeah, I actually...

My favorite player on the board this week is Justin Rose. I bet Justin Rose at 55 to one. I think Justin Rose is going to win someone a lot of money on DraftKings this week. I think he's, I think it's a good time on him to buy. He started to come around in the fall. He gained over a stroke in all four major categories at the RSM. I know that this isn't,

what you think of when you think of a Justin Rose course, but he's won at the Zurich before, before it was a team event. That's another Pete die easy par 72 where you need to make birdies. I mean, he, he finished one stroke out of the wind and play off a couple of months ago too. I, I just think you're buying low on a guy that is starting to show some real signs of

I don't think he'll ever be a top 10 player again, but I think he's got some fight left in him. And he was the guy that I was looking at at 55 to 1. I thought that was a fair number on Rose, and I normally do not bet him.

I don't really have a strong opinion on that. You could make the case there's guys farther back that bring almost the exact same. Ricky Seawill. To the table. And, you know, it's a personal preference. It's still having fun here. You got to have your personal preference. Yeah, I'm not going, despite like I've had to live up to a bit that I created many years ago. I don't really have any need for Justin Rose.

And like any golf fan, like Justin Rose is a guy I've watched my whole life.

I don't like seeing him hurt. I want to see him healthy. I want to see him contending. I do like guys just in front of him, though, a bit. Zala Torres and Bazayden Hote. Sure. Yeah, I bet Bazayden Hote last week. He was good. Yeah, so it's 60-1. You're seeing some Bazayden Hote. Seems like a really... The sort of course that he can just plot around perfectly. And despite some...

Listen, if you weren't watching, how do I put this? I didn't watch some of the golf on Friday. And then you sort of see your Twitter feed and you think he missed the cut. Yeah. Like just some, maybe it's just a few people who I follow are very like loud and boisterous. You don't say a couple of guys don't, don't go their way. I don't, I don't know. So I'm not, but yeah, no, he played quite well for a guy that seemed to,

be going back and forth a lot through the first couple days of the tournament. And Zalatoris, like I'll challenge and maybe this will bite me in the ass, but you can have your wolf at 28. Like give me Willie Zizzle at 50.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that was to me, Zalatouris was not somebody that really popped for me in my handicapping process per se, but I was probably the most surprised about his number based on what I thought his number was going to be. So I'm with you. I think he should be a lot lower than that.

in some of the offseason commentary like around the new year i did kind of make mention in a couple places i too was surprised at the number but zalatoris just for where he was a year ago probably in this talking train you know little forgotten players there's just so many young players and new guys just keep showing up or entering new tiers like a burns and it's great for them but

Zala Taurus in some ways feels like a bit of a forgotten entity and he's not a hundred to one, you know, like it's not like he's forgotten, but yeah, I jumped all over this, but sort of starting in this range, Andy, a lot of guys that have my attention. Will I pull a trigger on CWU? No, but defending champions 65 to one. I know this field, nor into very disrespectful. Norrin,

He seemed to have handled easy birdie fests a lot better. He sort of changed that perception that I had of him. Really good in easy scoring conditions. Yeah, that's changed. But Mayo brought up his metrics, and it could have been a lot of me thinking nice perception of him because he had a horrible swing season, Andy. Yeah. I think you have to give players... If they haven't played since, and I would have rather them played. I would rather...

play somebody that played the Sony Open and maybe he wasn't great than somebody that played bad. But what they did in the swing season, like there's enough time now that you have to probably assume that they figured it out. And a guy like Noren who's literally known for, you know, he's literally...

like how Tong Lee light in terms of range time, like the guy is just an animal grinder. And some say like he wears out his, his hands. Yeah. That's what I've heard. Healthy way. Like some people close to the game will say that's what he does is unhealthy. Um, but he is on a list of guys. I'm, I'm kind of looking at Carlos Ortiz. Yeah. Me too. It feels like a, a place he could totally pop at 80 to one. And I don't know.

Yeah, just a lot of guys, even as we start to flirt with the triple digits. Yeah, I have Rose at 55, and then my next bet is 150. I've got four more guys in that 150 range. So, I mean, there are some names that I might add here. I always love Gary Woodland. I'm on the record about Woodland's

resurgence this year. I didn't love him in my handicapping process as much as I would have thought, but he's a long-term buy for me, and at 100-1 in this field, I just...

that's a little high in my opinion. Mayo's all over that. Like you sort of made those off-season proclamations that Woodland. And as I filled in the gap on his comments, not that he needed me to, this isn't like you're not picking Gary Woodland to win a major. The claim was Gary Woodland is kind of being forgotten and we're going to catch him at 101 in a shitty field. So maybe this is that perfect opportunity

example of it. I'm seeing Chris Kirk a hundred. He was, he had a great run through here last year. Andy, if you remember it started in Hawaii and he continued it for quite a bit of just quality golf. So this is a sort of plotting layout that in many ways can work perfectly for Chris Kirk. And in some ways I know I could take heat for this, but you know,

He's like a poor man's Zalatoris, is he not? In what way? I think he's a better putter than Zalatoris, and I don't think he's as good of an iron player. Yeah, but just like it's all going to be... Well, I don't really consider Chris Kirk a great putter, but just a guy just going to iron... There are a lot of guys in this field that you're just hoping can iron the shit out of it. Hoagie. And putt. Hoagie's...

I that's a guy spoke about already today. I was on the hoagie wagon last week. Apparently he has nice MX history on the low pro or not so much the low pro start to analyze. I'm going right back to that hoagie approach game approach game. There's a lot of guys, uh,

Lucas Glover led the field in approaches last week, Andy. I know. I know. I'll give you... Yeah, let's just... We might as well start talking about these guys now because I've got a bunch of bombs that I want to throw out there that I think...

there's a lot of value in their outright number, but I also think these guys are going to win people a lot of money on DraftKings. I think some of these guys, you can really find some diamonds in the rough in a field and a tournament with this much variance. I'm with you on Hoagie. He's just, he's a really elite wedge player. All the reasons that I liked him last week kind of apply this week. He's actually the number one player in this field over a very large sample size from like 75 to 125 yards. So,

And you're going to have a lot of flip wedges on this course. And he's already finished six here. So I think he's a great play this week.

I love KH Lee at 125 to one. He's played well here the last two years. There's, there's the TPC narrative thing, which I don't really buy into a ton, but you look at how he's done at places like the Shriners and the Phoenix and the 3M open. And it's like, okay, maybe, you know, maybe there is something to this. You get them on an easy par 72 with some water and a bunch of par fives. And I think that is his sweet spot.

And he's another guy who hit the ball really well at the Sony Open, just couldn't buy a putt. And he played both Hawaii events. It just kind of seems like he's getting into a groove. So Cage Lee is another one I was looking about. What about you as we kind of drift into these longer guys? Yeah, well, credit, you know, love pumping up that odds checker grid because seeing some guys that...

Jeez, like Vanduul's thrown on to 160. I know. Yeah. Like Hoagie, they threw Hoagie up to 160. I'm not in one of those states, but jealous of those guys. Can't not have the conversation. You mentioned you love Justin Rose and for different reasons. We saw Jason Day at that team event about a month ago. Yeah.

130 to one just to strike the shit out of it. And I'm going back to the well with this guy. But if you look at the best results last year, Andy, he's made a home in California. He, I know where you're going. He enjoyed life of being an accomplished world-class golfer. Sure. And he moved his family and everything. But Francesco Molinari, like put a run of events in California last year. And I,

I can't not, I think, be a part of something with him this week. I think I'd rather play Hayden Buckley or Adam Svensson because I think there's an element of unknown with those guys. Like,

I thought that Buckley and Svensson were going to be really popular this week coming off really good performances at the Sony and their odds would get like slash because I remember at one tournament in the fall swing or something like Hayden Buckley had back-to-back top tens and then he was like 35 to one or something like that. I was shocked that Buckley was 160 to one in this field.

He just might be really good. He also might not be really good. We don't have enough of a sample size of statistical data. It's very good, but it's too small of a sample size. And I would rather just play the element of unknown here with some of these guys where

With guys like Hayden Buckley and Svensson, there's a chance that these guys are perennial 60-to-1 guys in a month from now, and you're just buying low. They also could be not good. I mean, we'll see. It's like...

Yeah. Someone made this example. I don't know how I could think of it to golf, but it's like when a team needs to hire a new GM. Yeah. And now they all go. It's like for football, like retread GMs. They almost don't exist. If you've been a GM and you get fired, having a second job as an NFL GM seems very hard.

At least when you compare it to coaches through the history of the sport. Sure. And it's like the owner would rather put a guy up there who doesn't have to answer for, you know, a bad Carson Wentz trade or this, or it's like, yeah, you've done nice things and you built nice teams, but like, look at those parts of the resume. You hire this, like,

Fresh face, 40-year-old from, you know, you dig him out as someone's assistant. There's no scar tissue to answer for. Like, there's nothing. It's just, you just got to be hopeful about it. And that's, I guess, you know, the Molinari versus Buckley. And in many ways, you sold me that maybe I should just, you know, bank the ceiling of some of these lesser lights. Must mention Visfensen. Very nice guy. I had breakfast beside him at a

at one of my favorite establishments in Palm Beach, one of the days leading into the Honda a few years ago. Doesn't Joe know him? Probably, just from that part of Florida. Joe probably knows like a small handful of guys in that Svensson range, just because Joe hits up all the courses and you find yourself in them. And as long as you're smart enough,

to not bet them or think that they're not good and then bet them you're doing your, your, your all right. Yeah. I think Svensson, I mean, he was, he was T seven at the Sony last week. He was on TV a bunch too during the final round. So I really thought that he would be a super buzzy name this week. Yeah. He was on TV a bunch. And so I don't know, maybe these guys end up being like chalky seven K guys when people start listening to stuff and all the podcasts,

come out. You know how it goes, but I don't know. It's just, we're recording this on Monday at like 4 PM Eastern. And I haven't really listened to anything yet or been on Twitter, but I mean, Svensson, I, I,

He's 150-1. I grabbed that. I think a lot of the guys around him are pretty proven commodities, and we know what their ceiling is. I mean, Svensson gaining 6.1 strokes on approach last week, and he's played this tournament before. He finished 18th. Really, really good wedge player from what we've seen so far. I don't know. I'm happy to roll the dice at 150. Yeah, it's one of those things, Andy. It's like...

you feel more comfortable getting a big putting week from Svensson than Luke Lister, Harold Varner. Yeah. Yeah. Because you guys also that I'm looking at maybe for DFS Varner's a guy that

You just think of how this layout works. You think it'd be perfect for him. I'd never get him right. Anytime I'm big on Harold, I get it wrong. Every time I'm off Harold seems to be the few times he plays well. I love Harold Varner too. Actually, the guy that I was playing golf with this weekend, he works at Morgan Stanley. And I guess that Morgan Stanley does a lot of it. It's one of Varner's sponsors. So he knows Varner and says he's just

you know, salt of the earth does so much for the community and charities. I, I really, I've been on Barner a ton. I really hope that he breaks through at some point. I think he's got a lot of talent. Yeah. I could see it this week. 90 to one, something like that. I think a hundred to one. Yeah. 190. Another guy in that range. I feel like sick for mentioning him, but yeah,

I don't mind. He actually was so good for me on DraftKings last week, and I hope he goes under the radar again in that respect. That would be Russell Knox. Oh, yeah. He was so good for me on DraftKings, too. Yeah. Knox was great, and he putted well last week, too. Yes.

The thing about Knox putting well is even when he putts well, I still happen to shot track the missed five-footers. They're unavoidable. He could not birdie. He was inside eight feet all tournament on that short little 10th hole. I don't think he got it one time.

Yeah, he is. With his irons, I know this is going to sound crazy, but you look at the advanced numbers with his irons, he is a top 10 iron player in the world over a five-year sample size. It's insane how much the putter holds him back. But I don't know. The putter, he has to have confidence for knock standards in the putter off last week. He could be a guy...

Could go back to, I might not make a bet under 50 to one. Yeah. Like I'll just have to watch Connors win and be angry when answer does. There's a lot of guys. I mean, I'm not going to go through the reasons for all these guys, but some of the guys like I'm going to be playing that I think are great DraftKings plays like,

I like Kazire on a wide open birdie fast. I like Andrew Putnam a lot. I like Shank Norlander was in that line. Anytime he can go somewhere and not make a double to give back the three birdies in a row. He just made, I know. And those are the events where,

I'm all in on Kazire. I can't give back all of the great work because he's so good at doing that. I know. He's a great drafting scorer. I like TPC Summerlin as a comp. He's finished second and fourth there. He's also been awesome at the Sanderson and Byron Nelson. Those are all just like easy par 72s where you have to go low. I mentioned Norlander.

I like Ryan Moore's 300 to one. He's a guy I'm going to play in DraftKings, Jason Duffner. Now we're just, I'm talking about DraftKings and top 40 guys. I hit a winner on Duffner. He hit what he saved from the rocks. Like he was in a rock bed. He probably has the, he may have the best outside of Hadwin. He may have the best course history out of any one here.

I mean, that was like when this tournament, like three names ago, because this one's been through a few. It was 2016. Yeah. Yeah. You said something that's, as we're finishing up, really rang true to me. And it's so easy to say and silly to say. But when I made those comments or the ROM comments sort of comparing the Masters odds, that like on the surface...

It's like, yeah, he's eight to one on some books to win the masters. He's plus 650 to win this. Of course, this represents value, but you did the point where like, no, the masters, like you literally are capping 30 guys. If you want to be 40, if you want to be like nice to people, like if you want to give people respect that they probably don't deserve in this moment of time.

Having this being my second conversation about this event today and the past history of this tournament, like, yeah, it does feel like there's like 115 like live bodies here, which is dangerous to say because it's going to cost me money.

Yeah, and listen, I mean, I have to do the same thing, Jeff, where people are going to come at me because they think I'm an anti-Rom guy now when I'm not at all. No, no, I think you stated that quite clear. You just said the gap isn't the gap. That's all. You're like, no, this guy is what he is. You're not disputing it. The gap isn't the gap. And I think you mentioned it perfectly about the value of playing elites better

at courses like this versus courses where that do maybe a better job of weeding out the weaker players, I guess would probably be the best way to articulate it. I still, I mean, if Ron Brinks is, Ron was number one in my model. He's number one in my model most weeks. I want to see what the ownership is. He's in my player pool right now. Like I'm going to probably play him in

DraftKings, depending on how things shake out for me. But yeah, I hear what you're saying. I think I like that he's at these odds because I think that, I don't know. It's not even the odds. You like that he's here. You feel like your chances of winning aren't that much different whether he's here or it's JT here or mix and match any of those top four or five guys, but you feel like you are getting better numbers because of it. Mm-hmm.

And again, goes back to all of us. Like who cares? Who's here? You just hit your quota. And I say this from a strictly outright betting perspective, but it's sort of what we all have to convince ourselves mentally in ways. A to just wake up the next day and make bets on these things. Andy, that's too early in the season for that sort of attitude. I'm not there yet. Trust me, but you just sort of have to convince yourself that,

of anything and whatever works for you. And for me, for the years, it's been like, don't change anything. You're going to hit your quota. Trust you're going to hit it. You might lose for the first two months. And then all of a sudden you get like white hot lightning. And there've been years where I'm like, oh shit, I'm not going to get to my quota this year. Like this sucks. And then I don't know, boom goes the dynamite. You fucking get there. I've been lucky enough to do it. So I don't know.

You know, I say ROM, but I mean a lot of these big boys. I'm so afraid of all of them. That's just the truth of it. Like I am. I think I go into every tournament thinking, oh, one of these great players is going to win. That doesn't mean I don't make my betting card filled with guys 30 to 1 and above, but

I don't know. I always have that sort of mindset. Like I have a hard time picturing them not winning despite making bets and getting lucky and winning some. Well, you're not, you're not exactly wrong. Like we haven't had a crazy winner in a while. Like you go through back, like starting in the fall swing, um,

Homer, you can catch a good number on him, but he was one of the better players in that field. Burns at the Sanderson, Sungjae at the Shriners, Rory at the CJ Cup, Hideki at the Zozo, Lucas Herbert at the Bermuda, but by the official World Golf rankings, Herbert was the eighth best player in that field.

Hovland at the Mayakoba, Koklak at the Houston, Gooch at the RSM, who at that point was in the 40s and 30-1, Cameron Smith and Hideki. So, yeah, I mean, this is...

We'll probably do for a bit of a weird one, but you're right. It's been the big dogs have showed up recently. All right. Well, let's, let's do a quick recap. All right. And then, cause I want to ask you one or two football questions. So for me, I, I'm deciding between Connors and answer at the top. If I can get like a 20, this is probably wishful thinking, but I would throw Scheffler into that mix too. I just, if I could get like a 20, my buy number on Scheffler is like 20%.

24 and i'm just not seeing that it's either forgotten elite this week or you think like he'll get talked up as we get that's a good question are you kind of referring to what happened last week with hideki well hideki in some respects was the forgotten elite and he was for years yeah has pointed out like for one and done at least if you just go forgotten elite

you should be okay. Be it in, you know, outrights its own thing, but in terms of DFS or one and done, the forgotten elite is always a lane. You kind of want to be it. It might be Cali to be honest with you. Yeah. Yeah. That's a fair. Yeah. And I made those wrong points just in terms of being fair. You see how can't we steam that thing too?

Oh, my God. He made like eight birdies in a nine-hole stretch here last year, and he loves this course, and he loves California. So maybe it's Cantlay. But, yeah, so for me – He lost to Rahm in a playoff here, right? Was he in that playoff with Rahm the year that Rahm won? Maybe. I don't remember. I want to say he was. That was the same day that –

Like the Jags had that big Steeler upset in the NFL playoffs. I'll give my picks real quick. And then while you, while you give yours, I'll, I'll look it up. But yeah,

Rose 55, Svensson 150, Kazire 150, Buckley 160, Putnam 160. I bet James Hahn at 250 to one as well. So I have room for a bunch of stuff because these are all like very small bets on guys over 150 to one. But we'll see where the wind blows. Jeff, what about you? Yeah, so the bets I've made, Zalatoris 55,

And Bizzayden Hote, 60. Those are the bets that I've made. Bets that I will be making. I'll be betting Gary Woodland 100 to 1. You've got me on Hayden Buckley. You sold me. And I'm going to be betting Tom Hoagie. Again, my exposure for Monday evening is quite low. I can go in any direction possible.

I want, I want, I could probably even fit in answering Connors if I wanted to. Yeah, me too. I'm just attracted to, like we talked up too many guys that I like, that I like and can have fun, can have fun with this week. I do like that, like 50 to a hundred potential build out. And you mentioned Tringali. Did you not?

I didn't, but I like Tringali as a DraftKings play this week. It's hard for me to endorse his outright number, but he did the things I was looking for in my research. I don't think his outright number is that bad, 50-1. Yeah, I mean, it's maybe. I think he's...

I'm not of the belief ever that guys just can't ever win. They can't break through. I think that people build muscle memory and learn about their tendencies. In fact, this is something I said about Henley on the front nine where I was like,

like, God damn, Henley looks so comfortable. And then on the back nine, it was a bit of reality check. Like, okay, maybe he's not there quite yet, but the implosion happened a little bit later than maybe it would have happened last time. So, you know, we're getting somewhere, but yeah, I think Tringali is a talented player. He,

I, he bugs the shit out of me. I'll never forget the wave that he was doing at the Zozo in the house. I remember cause I was watching it in the middle of the night. I was like, what is this guy doing? Like he's the queen of England. I got still, there was an event in season that he did that too. He was winning during somebody. I think it was three and maybe. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. I, that's, if that's his shtick, I'll never bet him. Yeah. I don't mind it. I don't think the number's horrible. I don't know why I extended it by time, but a player I'm not betting, but I do think he, he fits this ability to plot along nicely. One, ask you a quick, quick football question or two before we get out of here.

So next week, what are you feeling? For me, I slammed the Titans. I took them at minus three. I got...

kind of like a buy order from the guys that I trust and talk football with and are really good at figuring out where the numbers are going. And they told me that one is on the move. And I bet the minus three on Sunday night. And now I think it's three and a half, four. I haven't looked at it this afternoon, but the other games I'm kind of like,

I don't know, man. I think the Packers line is really fair, like really fair. Like I don't see an edge either way. And then Chiefs, Bills, I think the Bills win that game. Okay, so I would agree with your early lean on the Titans, although it's great as a football fan. Like I love seeing that there are Bengals fans in the same way people can one day be happy that maybe the Chargers do something well. And I love seeing new blood and

just get, get, get in and advance and look like they have a future. But I agree. That feels like a nice spot for, for, for them. And in many ways, you know, the Raiders, that was a nice run. They should have been exhausted. They fought their ass off. Could be a bit of a step up, you know, for the Titans, but,

That five and a half in Green Bay, those are the weirdest to me. I have a 49er future, so I'm beholden to it. So I have a rooting interest. But five and a half point spreads, it's like you don't have quite the confidence to put it up at a touchdown. But we still think a lot of you would probably lay a touchdown if we asked you to. But at the same time, there's no way we're going to make this thing at four because you guys would just come all over us.

you know, come in on all over us on this one. So that, you know, that's a sketchy one. I don't really have an opinion. I'm loyal to my future.

And I'm full wagon on the Bills, Andy. I think they win that game, actually. I don't know if they're going to win. That should be a fun game. But my rooting interest, A, from where I'm located here in southern Ontario to the fact that I've seen the Chiefs play in two straight Super Bowls. What I said about the Bengals in New Blood. I'm all for it. The Bills have my full interest.

I don't know if that means that they're the bet. They just, they got my support. I'll leave it at that. Yeah. My preseason prediction of Bill's pass.

that Packers Super Bowl is still alive somehow. And I feel the same way about that now. I think it's Bill's Packers for me. I don't know. That was the Super Bowl I picked at the start of the playoffs. Yeah, I think, well, you know, it's, I think, you know, I think it's going to be a great game, right? And I haven't made a move on that yet. It's another one where,

I don't know if it's going to get to three. If it gets to three, I'm in on the Bills. If it sticks around in two at 2.5, I may just pass and root for my future. I want the field goal. Yeah. I don't know. That one feels... Yeah, obviously, I can't dispute the value of that field goal. I don't think you're going to get it, though, Andy. You're probably right. I even heard Dan Patrick had a guest on his show today.

And they're like, who do you and his question to the football writer, like rap sheet or whoever, one of the 10 guys that go in the cycle. It was like, who do you got in the AFC? The bills are the field. And I'm sitting here like I'm the one with the bill. Like, I want to cheer for the bill. Those are the field. Like, that's where we are now with the bills. That's the field. Yeah. Get out of here, man. Like, I'm pro bills, but.

People need to also maybe chill on that. No, yeah. No, I think the Chiefs, you know, they haven't impressed me. Even what I saw last week, even when they win big, I still have reservations about them. It's weird. Yeah, but is there a team that you have more confidence in, like down two scores to come back?

No. Yeah. It's they. And that's what, you know, even when you're picking eliminators, it's like my buddy always says to me like, okay, but who do we want if we're down 10 points? Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, no, I, I, I think it's interesting for the chiefs that all three of the teams left beat them this year.

So while the Chiefs go back and they're the team to beat, they are the team to beat. Like they are the team to beat. I can't acknowledge that. I wish so badly. Well, whatever. Even if the Chargers got in the playoffs, the Bills would, what a spot. They would have just been annihilated. So I don't even need to think in that world. But,

It didn't matter who made the playoffs. To me, the Chiefs are the team to beat. That being said, what happened this year was they gave a lot of teams in football reason to not fear them.

Yeah. Anymore. The fear factor is gone. The borough beat them. You just, you saw Tennessee's had their way with them. The bills had a big off the mat game versus them. The only team that I guess should have feared them was the Raiders. And I say that like what the chiefs did after starting essentially like almost a full half without scoring and then doing what they did.

as someone that likes to compliment Pittsburgh's defense, despite its flaws, like Watt and Minka, I think in some ways we're not giving the Chiefs enough credit for the two-quarter explosion that they did. Yeah. I mean, they still have that gear. For some reason, it feels like

that gear happens maybe a little bit less frequently or sometimes when they're in the hole they're not getting back there at a higher rate but it definitely still it feels like they're capable of punting like in years past yeah it's like third down exactly matter like they'll figure it out mahomes will throw one through his legs backwards blindfolded they'll get it now on like third and seven or something you have this like party like no i can get them off the they're still the

It's still hard to get them off the field when they convert a bunch, but I, there's not this defeatist attitude. I think when it's like third and five versus them, like it used to be for three previous years. Yeah. A hundred percent. All right, buddy. Well tune into the spread pick show for more of a detailed conversation and Jeff's takes on the divisional round of the playoffs. Jeff, what else you got going on this week? My friend.

Already chatted with Mayo, so go check out my golf chat with him. Me and you are throwing it down. I'll be throwing it down with Rick Gaiman for Odds Checker. Chatting, as you mentioned, with Pat and Tim early in the week. So a lot of me like early in the week, and then I disappear. And I spend the rest of it complaining on the internet, I guess. I don't know. That's the best way to do it. I love getting everything out early and then just chatting.

chilling and watching yeah sometimes i don't know sometimes watching can be you know something in and of itself like in and of itself watching can be tilting like i'm much better i have a much healthier thursday just knowing the guy made par not knowing he missed like a six footer and made par

Yeah, it's better. I know what you mean. I had, I played 36 holes a day for three days this weekend and didn't watch any of it. And I, and this was, I had all week, I had a massive drafting sweat and it was so enjoyable not being a part of it really. And how do you, how do you put one out there on a par three, like you posted and have no club twirl there, Andy?

Oh, I know. I don't, I feel like the, like I'm already posting swing videos on Twitter. I don't know if I want to be like that guy that's,

club twirling too. When you hit it like that, I saw that ball leak over the hill. Oh yeah, it came down. Yeah, no, it really came down. Everyone I was playing with was like, that's fucking in. But no, we had a blast this weekend. Beautiful place. But all right, Jeff Feinberg, everybody. Jeff, thanks for joining me, my friend. All right, that is it for me and Jeff. You can catch me tomorrow morning at 12 p.m. Eastern on The Scramble with Rick Gaiman, and we will be back on Friday as well.

Really happy with how this show has grown in the new year. It means a lot when you guys help it grow by leaving reviews on Apple Podcasts and retweets and all that stuff. It really helps, and I really appreciate it. So in any right, I hope everyone has a great rest of the week, and we'll see you next time. Cheers.

Between the viaducts of your dream Where mobile steel runs crack

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