cover of episode A Comprehensive Guide to Valhalla with Steve Bamford

A Comprehensive Guide to Valhalla with Steve Bamford

2024/5/11
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Andy: 本期节目对2024年PGA锦标赛瓦尔哈拉球场进行了深入分析,涵盖了天气状况、球场变化、球员实力等多个方面。Andy详细分析了瓦尔哈拉球场的特点,认为其兼具公园球场和林克斯球场的风格,球道较长,果岭面积相对较小。他认为,由于近期降雨,球场可能会比2014年更软,但不会像今年大师赛那样坚硬。他比较了瓦尔哈拉球场与橡树山、贝勒里夫和缪菲尔德村球场的相似之处,并指出长打能力在该球场将比精准度更重要。Andy还分析了不同草坪类型(Zoysia)对比赛的影响,并列举了在Zoysia草坪和长草球场上表现出色的球员,例如贾斯汀·托马斯、布鲁克斯·科普卡、罗里·麦克罗伊等。他还分析了球员的推杆能力对比赛结果的影响,并指出推杆稳定性将是关键因素。最后,Andy预测了部分球员的比赛成绩,并给出了自己的下注建议。 Steve Bamford: Steve Bamford同意Andy对瓦尔哈拉球场特点的分析,并补充了更多细节。他指出,PGA官方更关注球场维护,而非控制最终得分。他分析了球场草坪类型(Zoysia)和近期降雨对球场状况的影响,并认为如果降雨量大,球场将变得非常长和具有挑战性。他还比较了瓦尔哈拉球场与其他球场的相似之处,并指出长打能力在该球场将比精准度更重要。Steve Bamford还分析了不同球员的比赛风格和实力,并列举了在类似球场上表现出色的球员,例如贾斯汀·托马斯、布鲁克斯·科普卡、罗里·麦克罗伊等。他还分析了球员的推杆能力对比赛结果的影响,并指出推杆稳定性将是关键因素。最后,Steve Bamford给出了自己的下注建议,并预测了部分球员的比赛成绩,例如布鲁克斯·科普卡和布赖森·德尚博。

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The discussion covers the preparation and analysis for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla, focusing on weather conditions, course changes, and player strategies.

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Annual major tradition. I cannot believe we are sneaking up on another major already, but it is me. It is Steve Bamford of the Golf Betting System, breaking down absolutely everything you need to know about Valhalla. I really prepared myself for this one. Usually this show with Steve that I record the prior Wednesday to the major week is a

Just my first look, but I spent a lot of time in the lab on Monday and Tuesday grinding, grinded some Valhalla tape. And while I have mixed feelings about this golf course, I've certainly changed my opinions on some aspects of it and what I am looking for next week. And we break it all down in this podcast. So without further ado, let's bring on Steve for a comprehensive look at Valhalla site of the 2024 PGA Championship.

All right, Steve Bamford is here. Second major of the year. It feels like it completely just snuck up on us. I feel like yesterday we were breaking down the masters. How are you feeling on this Wednesday afternoon? We're recording this a couple hours before the afternoon before the Wells Fargo starts. So we'll have a little incomplete information, but welcome in, your second major.

Andy, how are you? Good? I'm great. Like I said, it did sneak up on me a little bit. It feels like...

It feels like this year they're bunched together very closely. I think it's major three weeks apart, major three weeks apart, major three weeks apart. But I'm excited. I actually spent a lot of time yesterday diving into Valhalla. So I would say I'm actually more prepared for this early preview than the Masters one that we did where I felt like I was kind of scrambling. So I'm excited to get into it.

You're always well prepared, Andy. You shouldn't put yourself down like that. But it's been a bit of a strange one on the PGA Tour, hasn't it? So we had the Masters. Then they had a signature event the week after that everyone was kind of... And Scotty decided he wanted to win that one as well. Then we had a team event, which I've got no interest in whatsoever. Then we've had the Byron Nelson, which again is a bit of a birdie. Now we've got the Wells Fargo with clearly a signature level event.

And that builds perfectly for Valhalla next week. Plus, I think that we've actually seen some very meaningful live league action as well, both over in Adelaide and also, of course, last week in Singapore with a certain Brooks Koepka all of a sudden appearing and playing brilliant golf again. So it should be an interesting discussion with you.

How deep have you gone into Valhalla? Uh, I like these ones the best because, you know, with the masters, there's, oh, there's only so much information that we can provide that folks are,

aren't already aware of, but I love when we get to a place like Valhalla. It's not a first-time major venue. We saw this back a decade ago in 2014, which Rory McIlroy won, then back again, I believe, in 2000 with Tiger Woods. But what are your early impressions on Valhalla thus far?

Well, I couldn't believe just how soft that golf course was looking at the 2014 footage. My Lord. Literally, the ball was just stopping. It was very... Rory's got... Rory on a soft golf course in his prime was unbeatable. Just think Congressional, US Open. Just think Valhalla PGA Championship and you get a kind of grasp of that. But it's a...

It's a very long golf course, but it's a fascinating golf course as in it seems to be, to me, when you just look at it visually, it's a kind of mix. I'm not seeing lots of holes that are particularly tightly tree-lined. And when you actually look at the course and you take away the tree line that is there, there's a – I mean, people might shoot me down here, but you get almost a bit of a kind of lynx-y feel.

The spectators are on big mounds of earth. There's lots of thick grass, confescue everywhere. It's a mix of course. It really is. There's elements that are far more parkland and then it kind of just opens out and you get holes that are extremely long. It's difficult to tell as well, of course, if the PGA of America get their way,

we could see a PGA Championship in terms of its turf conditions that will be completely different to what we did see in 2014.

But when you do watch that coverage, a hell of a lot of driver holes. Just drive after drive after drive. Very few positional holes and some extremely daunting par threes. It's your atypical PGA Championship setup. Long, tough, hard work.

Well, I think there's two factors to this working against each other almost, which is that they did make a switch to Zoysia, which typically is a grass that does better with water sustenance, right? So Zoysia, it's easier to get a Zoysia golf course firm and fast than the previous bank grass fairway agronomy that they had. Now, the other conflicting piece of that is that I don't know if you've looked at the weather too much, but-

It's raining in Val Hall. I mean, it's the golf course in Louisville. I just checked wind finder, looked at the 10 day forecast. I mean, they're in a flood warning right now in Louisville. Oh, wow. Yeah. Oh, wow. So, and, and there's, there's,

significant rain coming Tuesday, a week of PGA. And now, from my understanding, I stand corrected if this is not the case, but I'm not seeing any information anywhere that they have a sub-air system or the type of state-of-the-art

You know, like Augusta has right where we saw a ton of rain on Wednesday and by Friday afternoon, the golf course is playing as firm and fast as ever. So that would be my concern. I just think because of the Zoysia, even if we do get a bit of rain, it's not going to play as soft as we saw in 2014. Yeah.

But I don't think Valhalla is going to play as firm and fast as what we were watching on Friday afternoon and Saturday at the Masters, where you get balls taking those big bounces off of greens. Yeah, I think it's stated that Kerry Haig, he's stating that he would like the greens to be a 13 on the stimp. Well, that doesn't sound realistic. I haven't read anything to say that they've got sub-air.

Clearly, as you say, zoysia is far more of a water-resistant grass. It was put in play to make that golf course faster on the fairways. Clearly, if there's a real... If Kentucky's having some severe weather problems in terms of rain now and into the future, clearly that's going to make that golf course particularly soft. Soft, isn't it? Clearly, the fairways will be more tolerant, but

It's going to make that golf course extremely long and extremely testing. They have lengthened it since 2014. Yep. It's now being quoted as a 7,000, you know, I said a typical PGA Championship setup, a 7,609-yard par 71.

Wow. Yeah. Which, you know, I think that the par 71 of it all is going to make this play, you know, in the past when we've had Valhalla as a major venue, we've gotten 18 under 16 under and.

11 under, which is easier by PGA standards. And I think that extra par five has a lot to do with that, right? O'Kill last year was nine under at a par 70. The prior year, Justin Thomas five under at Southern Hills par 70. I think the extra par five in there is

I would expect just on paper, I think this is a little bit of an easier golf course than Oak Hill. It's a little bit longer, but again, you have the par 71. The greens are a little bit bigger than Oak Hill, but still small greens for a very long golf course. And the green complexes themselves at Oak Hill are,

seem a bit more complex to me. These greens, I went back yesterday and watched all of Rory McIlroy's final round.

Once you get on the greens, there's not a lot of undulation to them. The greens themselves are not overly tricky. So if I had to guess, and I'm going to throw out you a couple golf courses that Valhalla really reminds me of in a second. But if I had to guess the combination of the rain and everything, I think that this actually does have the chance to be closer to

that 13 under Colin Morikawa, Harding Park, than it does five under Justin Thomas, Southern Hills. I mean, I'm subject to change this once we get a more accurate weather forecast. But if you asked me, would you take 12 under? I would take 12 under. I would. I think that's a score that I would feel comfortable about winning this event.

Yeah, the PGA of America as well. They're not the USGA, are they? They're not absolutely fascinated about and 100% focused on the winning score and trying to manage that. Kerry always says, Kerry Hague, he just wants the golf course to be in the best condition it can be and let the best players in the world play on it and do what they can on it.

So, yeah, I get that. I know the recent PGR, I mean, clearly the one that they played at on the coach with Mickelson won.

Yep. That was, that was ridiculously windy. And he won that a single digits. Was it five or six, something like that? Bell shot six under par Brooks and Louis shot four under part. Yeah. And that might've been a par 72. Yeah. It was a beast. It was 7,800 yards. Absolutely brutal. I mean, I don't think that,

Bellerive 2018 Brooks minus 16. And there's a lot of Bellerive in this golf course. Agronomically. Um, I don't think we'll get there unless we get a, a tremendous amount of rain, but you know, they lengthened the golf course by about 140 yards. Um, and,

And a decade of time has passed and driving distances has caught up. Right. So, you know, we'll see. Let me ask you this, Steve, to me, I'm going to give you three golf courses. And I feel like Valhalla is a, a weird baby of these three. If you combine these three together, it would look, your outcome would look a lot like Valhalla. I do think there's a lot of Oak Hill in this golf course.

You know, the smaller greens, the narrow fairways with thicker rough, it feels like the rough will be thicker this year than it was in 2014. And the aspect of Oak Hill that I think you might see a little bit at Valhalla is, and Rory gave this quote about Oak Hill, after a certain point, I just realized,

Drive the ball as far as I can and stop focusing on hitting, trying to hit the fairways. Now, these driving corridors seem a little bit wider than Oak Hill, but I do think watching Rory's final round, there is a tremendous advantage to be found just by hitting the ball as long as you can and having a short iron advantage.

Out of the almost the winged foot style of it. So I do think there's a lot of Oak Hill in this golf course where, you know, the penalty for missing a fairway by two yards versus the penalty for missing a fairway by 15 yards is not that different. As you mentioned, it's kind of wide open out there, which plays into the hands of bombers.

Bella Reeve, as I mentioned, agronomically, the Zoysia fairways, the backgrass greens, this part of the country, I think there's a lot of Bella Reeve in this golf course.

And then Muirfield village is this other Jack Nicklaus tree line, Parklands golf course, which is a little, little bit wider fairways, which actually emphasizes accuracy and strategy off the tee a little bit more. But what do you have to do at Muirfield village? You have to play a very controlled cut and just walking through these holes. It's like, Oh, you know, this whole sets up as particularly the closing stretch was 17 and 18. The

Those are all golf holes to me that set up better for a fade than they do a draw. So to me, Valhalla is, you know, if you combine Oak Hill, Muirfield Village and Bellarive, something like Valhalla is going to shoot out. Does that track for you?

Well, it does track and it also tracks clearly from a geographical perspective. You've got Memorial, Muirfield Village played at Ohio, which borders onto Kentucky. You've got Belle Reve, of course, over in Missouri again, another neighbouring state. So that works. Just to be clear for listeners as well, this Zoysia, these Zoysia fairways, they're

They're not exactly regular kind of looks on the PGA Tour. So if you're looking to just research golf courses that have Zoysia Grass fairways, Eastlake, of course, that's probably the most famous where they play the Tour Championship each year. We've got TPC Southwind where they play the FedEx and they played the St Jude Classic going way back. The only difficulty, of course, with those two courses is they both feature Bermuda Grass greens where these are T1 Ben Grass courses.

The exact agronomy that we see here, the only regular PGA Tour stop-off that has that agronomy, and it's actually on a completely different continent, is Narashino Country Club, where they played the Zozos. They played that in 19. That was the one Woods won, I believe. Amazingly enough, he was second at Belle Reve to Brooks Koepka.

They also played the Zozo there from 21 through 23. So that golf course there is a completely different golf course. It's small, it's tree-lined, it's claustrophobic, but the agronomy is exactly the same. But yes, I do see exactly where you're coming from with Belle Reve. I definitely see the link to Oak Hill.

If they grow the rough to where they're saying they're going to, and don't forget, of course, with all of this rain, it's going to be difficult to cut and whatever. If it's four, four and a half inches, that golf course off fairway is going to be extremely penal. And it does bring into play, just hit it as far as you can, because the guys that can only hit it 295 and are missing fairways as well, it's almost auto bogey. That's the trouble for shorter guys.

Oh, you mentioned as well, green complexes. I completely concur. They seem quite simple once you're on board. But what I found interesting in the pieces, they are quoted as 5,000 square feet on average with that T1 Ben Grass. Now let's just compare that to the most recent golf courses that we have seen on the PGA, the PGA championships. That's Southern Hills, of course, 2022 won by Justin Thomas when, uh,

when Mito Perea had the tournament in his hands on the 72nd tee. That was a 7,365-yard pass 70th

The greens were bent grass, but the green size was 5,300 square feet. So significantly shorter and slightly bigger greens. And then Oak Hill last year, 4,500 square feet on average green complexes with bent grass again.

That was just a snidge under 7,400 yards as a par 70. This year, 5,000 square feet on average green complexes, 7,609 yards, a par 71. So a very long golf course, a very stretching golf course. And for the length of the course, these greens are pretty tiny.

I told you I was prepared this week, Steve. So actually, I want to give you the best players over the last five years in strokes gain total on Zoysia. So this, as you mentioned, combines Bellarive, Eastlake, TPC Southwind, Naraschino. Some of the names, I think you won't be surprised. Number one, Justin Thomas.

who's been phenomenal at Southwind. Number two, Brooks Koepka, who's been also excellent at Southwind and also obviously won the PGA at Belle Reve. Number three, Tiger Woods, who has, as you mentioned, won Naraschino and then has also won at Eastlake, has also finished runner-up at Belle Reve. Xander Shoffley, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Will Zalatoris.

Adam, who, you know, your South wind winner a couple of years ago, Adam Scott, Alex Noren, Billy Horschel. Now I look at those names for Zoysia.

Um, and I, you know, Zoysia fairways are some players don't like them, right? You get some flyers sometimes out of that type of grass. So I found that was interesting. Those were the names that consistently popped up at Zoysia. And despite the differing agronomy on the greens, you actually do see like a decent crossover between South wind East lake and that Bellarive leaderboard. And then I looked at.

other long golf courses with thick rough. Okay. So these are going to be your Oak Hills, your winged futs, your Muirfield villages, your Olympia fields, you know, those tree land Parkland back grass, Beth page, right? Longer golf courses with thick rough. And here were the names that shot out a lot of crossover here that I don't think you'll be surprised about Rory McIlroy.

John Rahm, Will Zalatoris, Xander Shoffley, Scotty Scheffler, Victor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka. So the names that are checking both boxes on both those lists, not a huge shocker. The names that are on both lists, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris,

Xander Shoffley, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka. I mean, if you're looking at a leaderboard like that towards the end of the week, is anyone shocked? No. Two things to note there. Regulars who know me will know that I was clearly just grabbing a Post-it note and scribbling for years because I am a Post-it note guy. Number two, I was told...

Kepka's recent win in Singapore at Sentosa was on a golf course that was shod with Zorja Grass Fairways. I couldn't verify that, but I wouldn't be surprised because the

That Sentosa Golf Club has two courses, and one of them, which wasn't the one they were playing, was noted as having Zoysia grass fairways. So I can't see that the one next door wouldn't have. So just an interesting side note there. You might find that those live guys were actually playing on Zoysia last week. It actually might be a little bit of a better prep than...

Some folks are willing to give it credit for. Yeah. Yeah, I think so completely, especially on the basis that put it this way. I was far more interested personally from the on the live tournament from a PGA championship perspective than I was at the Byron Nelson. Sure. Just just because of the, you know, just the conditions and the course, it was pretty stretching as well.

But yes, there isn't many. I mean, there isn't many huge shocks are that there are they? And if you look at you take JT, for example, JT second at Muirfield Village, I believe he's come close, very, very close to winning. Now, he was also relevant at Wengtveit. That's right. Yeah, I think I think DeChambeau loves this part of the country.

I agree. Did he ever, did he ever, right. Did he ever, uh, John Deere classic? I know. Um, did he ever win at, uh, Mirafield village? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. A while ago. So Mirafield village, John Deere classic, um,

What was the BMW playoff with Cantlay? Was that Maryland, Caves Valley? Well, this is it. I looked at states that directly bordered. So Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia. Courses, of course, that feature Ben Grass or Ben Grass mixed with Poana. Of those that I looked through...

He had the most wins of anybody. 2017 John Deere Classic, 2018 Memorial Tournament, 2023 Liv Greenbrier, 2023 Liv Chicago. Yeah.

DJ as well, three wins, 2010 BMW Championship. They played that at Cog Hill. 2016 WGC Bridgestone, of course, at Firestone at Akron. And he also won the 2016 BMW Championship. I didn't go as far as those Maryland, sort of Washington DC courses, but they're very, very similar as well, which would throw Patrick Cantlay's record down

because he's got clearly two wins at Muirfield Village 2019 and 2021 memorials. He's also dominated a couple of those BMW championships around the DC area. One at Wilmington as well, wasn't there? So yeah, I think this kind of agronomy, this kind of geographical location is very, very good for Patrick Cantlay as well. Also, the other name I'd throw out there, first of all, John Rahm, fourth at Belarive. Yeah.

First in strokes gain total at Mirafield Village. Jon Rahm's averaging over three strokes total per round at Mirafield Village. Should have two wins in there. He had the COVID withdrawal. And then Jon Rahm also finishes. Did he win the BMW at Olympia Fields? The hard, firm, and fast one over DJ? I know they were in a playoff. He did, yeah. So there you go. So Jon Rahm...

well neiman was in third spot and wacky neiman's also got a bit of local because he won the 2019 greenbrier in west virginia to to the uh to the south east of where we are right so if you actually combine bellary of mirrorfield village in olympia field john rom is your number one guy that shoots out but also

Justin Thomas sex that Bellarive as well, which, which is interesting. And then you also, you think the names for Mirfield village and Olympia fields, you're getting Rory again, who's been great at Olympia fields, who's,

You're also very solid at Muirfield Village. And then you look at Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields, and you're getting Hovland, who won Muirfield Village last year, won Olympia Fields last year, and finished runner-up at Oak Hill. So this part of the country with thicker greenside rough

And these back grass tree line Parklands agronomy, it gets it's all the same guy, Steve. It's Hovland everywhere. It's ROM everywhere. It's can't lay everywhere. It's Rory everywhere. It's a lot of DJ. It's a fair amount of Xander Scheffler, you know, all by a more limited sample size. Scheffler has been phenomenal at Mirafield Village and graded Olympia Fields as well.

So I think we're looking at a very specific type of profile, right? And that can transition us into talking about the odds, but it's the same. It's the same darn names every single time. Steve, can I throw another, just another angle on this before we disappear into the odds board, please? This might be of interest. So,

Valhalla, they've had three PGA Championships here, 96, 2000 and 2013. They've had two senior PGA Championships, 2004, 2011 and of course the 2008 Ryder Cup. Now if you look at those stroke play tournaments and look at the winners, Mark Brooks won the PGA in 96, Tiger Woods in 2000, Hale Irwin won the senior PGA in 04,

Tom Watson, senior PGA in 2011. And of course, Rory won the PGA in 2014. Now I tied this all up. You've got Irwin with three majors, Watson with eight, Woods with 15 and McIlroy with four majors. That's 30 major championships between four of the five winners that have won on this golf course in total, right?

And then I see the kind of links connotation as well here with these five players. You've got Watson, Woods and McElroy who have nine Open Championships between them. Right. Hale Irwin was an Open Championship runner-up at Birkdale in 1983 amongst three career Open top tens. And Mark Brooks finished third.

at St Andrews in 95 and fifth at Lytham in 96 prior to winning his one and only major here in 1996.

So I just thought that's an interesting angle to look at. So if you looked at guys who have a little bit of open championship pedigree and tie that in with, I am absolutely... One of the key things I always look at at PGA Championship, no matter what the setup is... Well, that's not true. If it's a typical PGA Championship venue, so IA,

something that wasn't Oak Hill that Jason Duffner won at, or something that wasn't TPC Harding Park that Colin won at, which was shorter, tighter golf courses. But this kind of booming... Right. You're talking the 2023 version of Oak Hill. You're talking Beth Page golf courses like that. Yeah. So I'm just looking here at statistics, just pure driving distance, seasonal yards of the winners. So Kepka, 307 last year.

Justin Thomas, 314. Kepka in 2018 and 19 was ranking at 313 and 309. We've got Justin Thomas as well in 2017 at Quail Hollow. He was 310. You've got Jason Day going way back now, 314, 312 McElroy, 310.

If I look at the actual ranks of where those individuals were on the PGA Tour arriving at the PGA Championship, they were all, get this, all of them were in the, and this includes Jimmy Walker in 2016, they were all in the top 23 for driving distance on the PGA Tour when arriving at the golf course. The outlier, as you would expect, Phil Mickelson, even he was in the top 50 on the PGA Tour that year for driving distance.

So if you just kind of marry the two up and I'm close, live now,

completely confuses and adds a few different angles that we need to cover off. I've got these players in the field that as we sit here right now before the Wells Fargo, and the Wells Fargo will bring those numbers up because as we know, it's a very long golf course. There'll be some huge driving distances numbers last week. On the PGA Tour, I've got McElroy, Ben Arn, Wyndham Clark, Minwoo Lee, Taylor Pendrith,

Gary Woodland, Stephanie Yeager, Nikolai Heugard, Ludwig Oberg, Keith Mitchell, Jake Knapp, Ryan Fox, Tony Fienau, Justin Thomas and Patrick Rogers. They are all in the top 40 for driving distance, over 305 off the tee.

Very close to those guys. And I wouldn't be surprised if they kind of get over my low threshold would be a Kirk Kitayama, Tigala, Burns, Adam Scott, Zander, and Jordan Spieth. If I then look at, if I then look at the list. Kirk Kitayama as well, snuck up with a little top 10 at Oak Hill last year too. Yeah.

So Kurt Kitayama is the kind of player that goes well on tough golf courses where single digit scores are what you need to be competitive. So Kitayama is one of those very strong players. Bay Hill too. Bay Hill. I think they're some pretty thick rough at Bay Hill. Yeah. I look at the Live League. DeChambeau 3-1-9 off the tee this season so far.

Joaquin Neiman, Bermester, Rahm, DJ Maronk and Kepka. They're the six or the seven that have got the driving distance chops that I'm looking for. And then if I then cross-pollinate those raw numbers against decent Open Championship records, McElroy, Tony Finau,

Adam Scott, Zander, second at Carnoustie in 2018. Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, he had an eighth at St. Andrews in 2022. I've got Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, and Brooks Koepka. So there's something in there, I think. Oh, yeah. And I think you'll find this interesting, too, because I went back, as I mentioned, and watched every shot from Rory, the final round in 2014. Yeah.

So, you know, there's 14 par four par fives on this golf course. Rory hit driver on nine of the 14, three wood on four of the 14 and an iron off the T on 13, which is, you know, the little Island hole where it's basically everybody weighs up into the same spot. And then you get a little flip wedge into that Island green and,

He had 11 of 14 fairways. He had eight long irons coming in, five middle irons coming in, and five wedges coming in. Now, bear in mind that Rory...

was the longest player in the field at that PGA Championship in 2014. His distance off the tee was a, there was a greater gap between Rory's power and the rest of the field in 2014 than they will be this year, despite the fact that Rory's still a top five driver of the ball in terms of length.

It shocked me, and maybe this is the difference between a 2014 version of Rory and a 2024 version of Rory. He was so deadly accurate, Steve. I mean, Rory hit 11 of 14 fairways in that final round. Bahala, the type of golf course also where if you miss a fairway –

I don't think you're going to be penalized that heavily. Like he missed the fairway on 18 and was still able to chop a six iron out of that rough to get close to greenside on 18, the par five, because he drove the ball that far. But I think the, the aspect of Valhalla, I kind of thought about this earlier and,

Before I really dove in and I thought Valhalla was, you know, very narrow fairways, a lot like winged foot and Oak Hill where nobody is going to be able to hit those fairways. And so it just becomes a distance contest. And I don't think that's totally the case. I think it's closer actually to a Muirfield village where, uh,

Mirafield Village emphasizes total driving over distance or accuracy, right? And if you're still asking me this year at Valhalla, I'm taking distance over accuracy. I far prefer you to be long than I far prefer you to be straight. But I think the softness of the fairways and just watching how Rory attacked this golf course, it's not the pure accuracy.

Nobody is going to even bother hitting the fairways like Muirfield and, or sorry, like Oak Hill and winged foot, where those golf courses have like a 45% driving accuracy. The corridors are wide enough at, uh, at Val Hall where guys will still have, I believe above a 50% driving accuracy, unlike Oak Hill, but that combination of total driving, uh,

with more of an emphasis on distance than accuracy, I think is just going to be so massive on this golf course, Steve. Like I watched what Rory did to Valhalla in 2014 and then went back and watched some of the coverage of the early rounds and the way that Rory was able to drive the ball off the tee. I mean, he was so powerful defensively.

that in some spots he was hitting three-wood longer than some of the longer players in this field were hitting driver and finding the fairways. And so I went back and looked too and

You'll like this and then we'll get into the players. But I looked at the off the tee performance on these longer golf courses with thick rough. Okay. So who are the types of guys that raise their baseline off the tee on longer golf courses, thicker rough, these type of conditions that really accentuate off the tee play. So over the last five years, Steve, number one, Bryson DeChambeau.

Number two, Rory McIlroy. Number three, Keith Mitchell. Four, Patrick Cantlay, who's a great total driver of the ball. He doesn't get thought of for his distance and accuracy combo, but he's right there. Five, Jon Rahm. Unsurprising when you get that Mirafield Village, Olympia Fields. Adrian Maronk, Cameron Young, Xander Shoffley, Scotty Scheffler.

So it's a, it's a very specific type of driving test, right? Steve, where you kind of need to be firing on all cylinders. And those that are short and inaccurate are almost dead on arrival. And it's those same names again, Steve Bryson, Rory, Rob Xander, Scheffler, you know, Cameron Young's not going to shock anybody either. Yeah.

Yeah. Long and straight. That, that, that, that works at any golf tournament, doesn't it? But it certainly works at PGA championship. Meaning. Yeah. It works at every golf tournament, but the penalty for not having that in your arsenal, I think is aggravated here more than any other golf course. Okay. Anything else on the golf course you want to hit on quickly before we talk about the odds? I'll just throw this in there quickly. If you look at Rory's win,

3.03 strokes gained per round from Teeter Green, 73%, 1.11 putting. So 27% of his total strokes gained. Now that's, that interested me because both Victor Dubuisson, he actually turned up and played golf tournaments back then, and Jason Day were better than Rory from Teeter Green, but both putted negatively on the Greens, finishing 7th and 15th respectively. Now,

That got me thinking. And if you actually look, if you actually looked at putting well for the week, Rory, Mickelson second, Fowler third, Stenson third, Stricker seventh, and Mikko Illinen of all people was seventh. All finished in the top 10 positions and were in the top 12 for strokes gained putting at that particular PGA Championship. Only Victor de Bruysseau

putted negatively and finished in the top 10. And that to me just highlighted the progressive bent grass putting

could be very essential this week. And that kind of ties in with what you said 15, 20 minutes ago about these greens actually being quite simple once you're aboard. Yeah. I don't think it's a case of hitting greens and being negative with the putter. I think once you're on board, clearly those that are going to contend are going to be ones that can actually hold putts and can actually, you know, as we always say at majors, it's three putt avoidance from distance. Yeah.

That's going to be another key critical angle. And that's the kind of thing, when I just read numbers like that and I look at Team NoPup members and I look at players like Tony Finau, you could say, oh, this is a definite Tony Finau golf course. But the thing with Tony is you just know week after week, appearance after appearance in 2024,

we are saying this before the Wells Fargo, he's been horribly, horribly negative with the putter. Yeah. It doesn't really, if you're trying to split your players and, you know, who you're going to go with and who you aren't, that kind of angle, that negativity with the putter could actually be far more telling here, just looking at that set of statistics, than you might think it would be.

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Okay, I think we should talk a little bit more about a player named Scotty Scheffler. What do we do here, Steve? What do we do here? I personally think, and this, you know, I'm here to be shot down. I personally think that this setup is more of a negative for Scotty Scheffler than Pioneers number two will be. Agreed. So I think that Scotty Scheffler

is far more likely to win the US Open this year than he would be to win this. Purely from an agronomy perspective to a certain extent,

I've always say you look at every single victory that Scotty Scheffler has had so far and people say, oh yeah, he only wins between late February and May. Well, actually look, that's because most of the golf courses they play then are all featuring Bermuda grass, fairways and rough. And they're featuring in the main Bermuda, Bermuda overseeded, or in the case of the Masters, Bermudas.

Bermuda with bent grass on the top of it green. So when we start to move away from those Southeastern United States and Texas kind of areas, to me, that widens the scope that we might actually get someone that wins the tournament that isn't Scotty Scheffler. Well, the main piece of that for me is like,

Scottie Scheffler separates himself because he is not only the best ball striker in the world, but he also is the best short game in the world. Right. The way that Scottie Scheffler differentiates himself from a player like Rory Mackle right now is not because he hits the ball longer than Rory by any means. It's because his touch around the greens and decision-making is so world-class that

And I think Valhalla is a way easier golf course around the greens than Pinehurst, right? I think that you look at Augusta National and Pinehurst, and in my opinion, those golf courses are built for Scotty Scheffler. If I was drawing up a golf course for Scotty Scheffler, I would make it

A lot like Augusta and Pinehurst, right? Where you have these really difficult, firm, fast, challenging green complexes where touch around the greens is going to be a crucial component of success.

And I do think around the greens at Valhalla, like there's a lot of thick rough around the greens, which is somewhat similar to Oak Hill in the sense where, you know, Victor Hovland has been able to find a lot of success on golf courses where there's thicker rough around the greens. I'm talking about golf courses like Olympia Fields.

Oh, kill Miraflou village. Those are all golf courses that a player with a substandard short game has fared extremely well around the greens. Now, why is that Steve? I think it's because the, uh, the skill level in sliding your club under thick rough around the greens and just popping it out does not require as much skill as

as it does to execute these highly difficult touch shots off of short grass. Right. And I think for Scotty to separate himself, you want a lot of short grass around the greens. So it's just thinking of vacuum, like he's going to have an easier time separating himself at Pinehurst around the greens than he will at this golf course. But I mean, you look at last year and what's Scotty Scheffler's best T degree performance of the entire year. It's,

It's at Miraflown Village. But the combination of the baby, the prep time being a little bit less strong than he was coming into the Masters with only that one performance at the Heritage two weeks prior to playing the PGA Championship, awaiting the birth of his first child. I think it's fair to say that

Of the three remaining majors, now maybe there's an added wrinkle with the Open Championship with the weather concerns. Feels like certainly less so than Pinehurst, but the combination of the baby and course fit feels like the least likely major for him to win of the three coming up. So if he does it here, then...

We're on Grand Slam watch times a thousand. If he wins a round Valhalla, in all likelihood, he will be heading to the Open Championship with three majors already tucked away this year. Because I think he wins at Pinehurst. I agree. I think he could do a Martin Keimer at Pinehurst as well and literally just pull away. It could be one of the most boring majors ever when he's leading by seven shots heading into the final round.

I agree. I agree. The perfect example of Scotty Scheffler was the second hole at the RBC Heritage where he chipped in. That's just Scotty Scheffler. Yeah. See, you know, he can. I agree with you as well with Hodland. If you actually think about it, these PGA championships have almost kind of metamorphosized themselves into what we used to expect at US Opens. That big, thick rough around the greens and you can just kind of hack it out. Yep.

You can kind of see that in the fact that the scores tend to be now higher single digits or even mid-single digits, where before you could be getting 18. Remember when Jason Day won the PGA Championship back in, was it 2014?

Did he win at something like 19 under par or something? Yeah, 2015 Whistling Straits, 20 under par. And that was a bit of a warning side to the PGA because after that year, it started trending tougher again. You get Baltus Roll, which is more of a Mahala type setup. But okay, so we're not doing Scotty this week. I think we can take him on. Yeah.

Yeah, I agree. I don't feel great about it, but I agree. I feel better about our chances riding with the field than I do at Pinehurst. So who deserves our second billing, Steve? Because this next group of players, I'm going to lump Ludwig, Rory, Xander, Brooks, and Rahm. And man, Steve, if it's not Scotty...

It feels like this group, one to maybe three of them will be right there. So who probably deserves our second billing? I feel like it's Brooks. Yeah. I've been on Brooks on all three of his PGA Championship victories, and this just feels so like the fourth. I know. If you could get a golf course and build it in a Brooks Koepka mold...

This is pretty damn perfect. Bella Reeve, O'Kell, Beth Page. Yeah. And he said before the Live Singapore event that the performance that he gave at Augusta gave him the kick up the butt that he required to really get back to grinding and being professional at home.

And all of a sudden, I think he went to Adelaide and that was a really firm and fiery golf course that week. Something we don't tend to see on the PGA Tour anymore. It was, you know, plenty of roll on the fairways. Very, very, you know, greens that were releasing. He was first for greens in regulation. Over 90% of greens hit. He then goes to Singapore, hits tons of fairways, hits tons of greens and the putter starts working.

and just you know just takes the title so yeah for me it's kepka i have to say have you have you put a bet in on him yet uh i haven't i'm seeing over here in the uk 16 to 1 available we missed 20s yeah yes 20s and and it's killing me too because i actually held

the belief that Pinehurst almost like Scotty, because there's a lot of similarities in the way that Brooks and Scotty attack golf courses. They raise their baseline on very cerebral golf courses where decision-making is, is incredibly important. Right. And so to me, Pinehurst is more of a cerebral thinking man's golf course than Valhalla. And so initially coming into this week, I said, well,

Okay. I think I'm going to save Brooks for Pinehurst. And then you start digging into the thick, rough golf courses. And it's like, nah, this is Brooks is every bit as live here. If not more. I think so. I just, the missing the 20, um,

I only am holding one bat at the PGA, and there are two other players that I'm circling around, and if I was to add Brooks, then I would have to eliminate one of the other two. But of the group of Rory, Ludwig, Rom, Xander, you've got to give Brooks top billing. I just think you have to. He's head and shoulders above the rest for me.

I don't see any, anything from John Rahm watching him that gives me any confidence that he's near the top of his abilities right now. Other than the course fit other than, you know, this is the type of golf course that John Rahm should succeed at. Yeah. You did mention it. You didn't mention him in the top 10. There's always your numbers, which I thought was slightly interesting, but I know if you're, if you're looking for, if you're looking for angles, I, I don't trust Rory. Um,

Xander, I was thinking about this today. Do you know the major I think that Xander might win? Are you going Troon here? I'm thinking Open Championship, yeah. When he's over here in the UK and it's kind of a different vibe and it's...

It's just different to major golf in America. That's the kind of time I reckon Xander would just creep up, you know, and take a major. And don't forget, he won the Scottish Open at Renaissance. I know that's not a Lynx golf course, but it is in Scotland and it's got the agronomy of a Lynx golf course. And you can see the sea and there's the salt area. I just think that Xander's best chance of winning a major is at an Open Championship.

There you go. He probably wins this by six now. I don't think so. I think... I just don't think he's got the outright driving chops to win a PGA Championship on a golf course like this. Yeah. He'll be competitive. He'll be there or thereabouts as ever. He'll be there if you've got your eight places each way or your 10 places each way and you're fancying each way punt a 20 to one. He'll be there or thereabouts. But I just don't see him winning it. No.

What about Ludwig? I feel like he deserves a little bit more from us. Yeah, I don't like this. Is it knee injury that's pulled him out of the Wells Fargo? You know, it is. Or is that his actidology? Who knows? Yeah, it is, but...

And I was talking about this as it pertained to Will Zalatouris to another player I like a ton at Valhalla. I think a lot of these guys just make up some sort of excuse for the signature. That's what I think, yeah. Maybe just feel a bit tired. Yeah. Don't fancy it. But yes.

Is there any golf course that Ludwig doesn't play well on? Clearly, a golf course. I mean, I put him up this week for the Wells Fargo. He was the first man on my ticket. It didn't even need any thought process. Long, straight, high, aggressive. Quail Hollow is Ludwig Oberg. So, yeah, I could see him being a factor, undoubtedly.

i don't think the bank bent grass greens are doing any harm with with the background of you know where he grew up blah blah blah yeah i don't see many weaknesses in ludwig at all i don't see this being uh as you said i don't think this is going to be a course where you're going to need real creativity around the greens to save yourself either so i think i think that sits in a berg's wheelhouse very victor hovlandish but clearly he's got a lot more

off the tee game, if you like, just pure, pure aggression. And some of his approach play is absolutely phenomenal right now. Yeah, it's tricky because for me of that group,

The player that I'm most interested in is Brooks. And the biggest case against Brooks is it's just not that easy, right? Like it's just not that obvious for Brooks to come in and win the week before on live. And one of the things about Brooks is, is that, um,

He really, that major, that start prior to the major, if Brooks is playing well, that's a big Harbinger, right? Like that in the PGA championship, historically, you really want to be coming in playing some good golf. And that has been,

been the situation with Brooks in the past too, is that lead and start has been very, very indicative of how he's going to play. So we'll get to the next tier of the three guys that have been my, that I have had earmarked for this tournament since December. There's one player in that group that how they perform at Wells Fargo is really,

really important to me. And if I don't see any signs of life, then I think I could probably fit Brooks at 16 with my other two players. I do want to mention, I think of the remaining three majors, this is the most likely major that Rory or Ludwig would win.

I like Rory at this golf course a little bit more than I like him at Troon and Pinehurst from a course fit standpoint. And I probably say the same thing about Ludwig. I'm betting neither, but I do think of the remaining three majors, if Rory or Ludwig is going to win, it's going to come at Valhalla more likely than the other two, in my opinion. Agreed. Couldn't disagree with you on that, so...

Should we talk about Patrick Candling? Cause I know we like talking about, we like talking about Pat. So, so that's my, that's my guy this week, Steve. I've just had him earmarked here since December and it's,

It's put up or shut up time. I've, I've said before with, with this guy, like if you cannot contend at this major, a Jack Nicklaus golf course, that is very similar to a Muirfield village in many respects with your back grass greens and your tree line Parklands and this part of the country, then pick up your ball and go home. But I'm looking at a 28 at Cantlay and

And I'm curious about what he does at Wells Fargo. I'm kind of hoping for like a non-competitive T12 where he hits the ball very well, but he doesn't get folks too excited about him. You know what will happen? He'll be in the last group on Sunday. It always happens like that. Yeah.

Patrick will be there. I'll tell you what, I'm not betting Patrick Cantlay sub 20 to win a major. That sounds like a fair enough price. I'm seeing 25 over in the UK. 25 plus, I'm in. 25 plus, I'm in. I start to get a little more anxious about betting Patrick Cantlay 22 to 1 to win a major, or 20 to 1 to win a major, even if I think this is the perfect time.

golf course for him to win a major on. But that's, that's number two billing for me. The other guy we'll mention in a second, but can't wait. Can't wait to say my top three. If you go back five years on the PGA tour and just go through all of the Jack Nicklaus golf courses, Patrick Cantley has the most victories. Three.

He's also really, and also Sherwood country club. Right. He's also the best back grass putter of the elite players over the last five years. Yeah. I always think he's far better on Ben grass than he is on Bermuda personal. So yeah, I get that.

The, uh, the, the other player that's in this range who we have alluded to several times in the past in this podcast, but we haven't had a full discussion on. I know you're going to say, I know you're going to say Bryson, you're going to say, you're going to say Bryson DeChambeau 35 to one. He's on my betting card. That number has gone down a little bit. I like him all the way down to 28.

He was my pick in December. There has been nothing. Could he have played better on live this season? Absolutely. Would that have made me feel a little bit better about him? But you mentioned this part of the country, the Mirafield village, the Oak Hill of it all. I can't think of four or five players that I think are more likely to win this golf tournament than Bryson DeChambeau and, you know, to be holding a 35 to one on him, uh,

They're folks holding 60s. But if you ask me right now, 10 days out or eight days out from Tiaf on Thursday morning, who's your pick to win this major? It's Bryson for me, Steve. Yeah. He was third for driving distance in Singapore, hit 60% of fairways, top 25, top 14 for greens in regulation, couldn't putt. Who cares? Bent grass greens.

I know it's not the Midwest technically, but this kind of geographical climb. The three names that keep just jumping out to me are Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, and I'm kind of thinking Wyndham Clark potentially. Yeah, yeah. They're the three that are literally just kind of, there's a laser in the back of my head saying, you will tip these guys up.

And that's before what we see at Wells Fargo. But yes, Brian, this seems to me, I was amazed, you know, to see what he did at Augusta National. I was one of these guys that put him up for a couple of years at Augusta and watched him just flail around there, struggle and not understand the golf course at all.

But the way that he played on the Thursday and the Friday genuinely shocked me at Augusta. The fact that he seemed to be getting his head around the golf course. But I think a lot of that was the fact that that course, especially on the Thursday, and he had a beautiful draw where he had a weather window of 10 holes. The first 10 holes when it was barely a breath of wind and a soft golf course. And he took that

opportunity to its maximum and built that great score at the start. And then just as Augusta became more Augusta, all of a sudden he was starting to struggle a bit more. He wasn't moving forward anymore in the scoring. He was kind of just treading water. And that is the weakness I think he has at Augusta that was coming through towards the end of the tournament. But

If you want a guy that can hit the ball a long way that suits this golf course, putts well on bent grass, wins tournaments on bent grass and bent power in this vicinity of the United States, and is currently driving the ball well, hitting his irons well, I think Bryson Deschamps, and he is hyper-competitive at major championships,

Clearly a major champion. Don't forget, he was also in the mix last year at Oak Hill. And from memory, did he come into Oak Hill last year? Was he in great form on this then? Questions. Yeah, big time questions coming into Oak Hill. He's in better form heading into this BGA than he was last year at Oak Hill, certainly.

The fact that, you know, I'm just looking at his live record this year. It's ninth, fourth, sixth, seventh coming into the Masters, sixth. The fact that he's now 26th and 27th in Adelaide, that's given us the opportunity, I think, to be backing him at these prices, which is fantastic. So, yeah, I'm 100% committed to DeChambeau for next week, yeah.

The guy that I, like I mentioned, had earmarked in December that I'm most fascinated to watch at Wells Fargo because the Zoysia, the thick rough around the greens, the Oak Hill, the Mirafold Village, the Olympia Fields. I mean, Steve, if Victor Hovland top tens at Wells Fargo and shows us that he's not a total corpse and going through 18 different swing changes, I'm

That's my card. I mean, it's Bryson can't lay Hovland. And if Hovland still looks like he's fighting something in his swing, then I'm going to attempt to fit Brooks there. But I think I'm locked into Bryson and can't lay. And depending on what Hovland does...

At Wells Fargo, it's either Hovland at the slightly better number or Brooks for me. That's it. That's my three-pack that I feel pretty comfortable rolling into the line of fire with is those three guys. Hovland, of course.

in this segment of the betting board. I do. I think Wyndham Clark's got so much moxie about him at the moment. And if you were to tell me I prefer Wyndham more than Hovland, I couldn't make an argument against you. Yeah. On current. And then of course you've got, you've got this wacky Neiman's, you know, one of the best players on the, on the planet currently.

Can that transfer to a major? Well, if it's going to transfer to a major, I think the PGA Championship is probably the most likely. Historically, we said a few years ago down at Southern Hills there, it was JT that came from nowhere to take the title. But you had a bunch of guys there like a Cam Young and Matt Fitzpatrick was right in the mix. And of course, you had Joaquin's Chilean friend there.

There was a lot of kind of middle-ranging players that were competing at the top end of a PGA Championship leaderboard. If there is a major, I think that he does break out of, especially with this agronomy, the fact that he's got the win at the Greenbrier. He played well at that. That's a Chicago BMW they held. I think Wacky Neiman's an interesting name to try and get your head around this week.

Just slightly. I mean, it's very slight. Mine just seems to have slightly tapered off with his form, but it's still, it's still top 10 every week on live. But yeah, I'll be looking at Wacken quite closely as well. And then this other group too, I'm not going to be able to fit them in the way that I'm structuring my card, but yeah,

Justin Thomas making his homecoming to Louisville. He's had a lot of success at PGA Championships, we know, and on Zoysia. I mean, outside of unproven first-time major winners, which have actually – PGA Championship has been the major to go with those guys. Cameron Young and Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas in the 40 range –

It was like an awful good golf course for those three guys. Do you have a profits between those three? I'll throw a home in there too at 40. Don't see Homer winning a PGA championship on a golf course like this personally. Yeah, not yet. I agree. I just don't think he's got the, I just don't think he's got the, um, the pure power off the tee that you're going to need. I just don't.

I just like Cam Young and I like Will Zalatouris on major golf courses. So I always look for those two names. Personally, I'm not into JT. I'm still not into him. I think on driver-heavy golf courses where you really do need to be driving the ball long and aggressively, there's just far too much. There's still so much inconsistency. And his misses are seriously bad misses.

And I think that will come and bite you on a course like this eventually, personally. You know, you throw the same at Jordan Spieth. Do you have any longer odds players before we wrap up? I have two that I want to throw out there. Throw them. I like Sahith a lot. I don't know if he's ready to win a major yet, but he played well at Oak Hill. He's played well at Mirafield Village in the past as well.

He's developed into such a great, uh,

driver of the ball and long iron player right and you're gonna have so many long irons at Valhalla I mean I went through hole by hole and I think there's a golf course where you're looking at at least upwards of 50% of your approach shots coming from 175 yards plus with you know the three longer par threes and the drivable or sorry not the drivable the reachable par fives as well and

i just think it's a it's a damn good setup for him um and at 70 to 1 i i think he's willing to take or ready to take that next step in his career trajectory would be contending at a major um and then i you know

This one is a little, this one is a little bit more of a dart through, but you know, who's got the perfect skillset for a PGA championship like this and is playing, you know, is maybe been the best ball striker on live all season. Dean Burmester, 125 to one murders, murders the ball off the tee. Yeah. I did think Dean Burmester.

He's seriously impressive, isn't he? He was impressive on the DP World Tour without kind of stringing wins together, but it was always a very impressive player.

But yes, I like the idea of players here that are in decent form just getting into that sort of top 10 from an each-way perspective. Don't forget, over in the UK, I don't know if it's the same over there in the States, we get offers up to 10 and 12 places each way at majors. Clearly, you get reduced odds, but you can pick players

good players that are in form and build cases. I think Kurt Kitsuyama is a name we've already mentioned. He's playing some great golf from tee to green. He's just putting horribly. So Kitsuyama is one that I would definitely take a look at. I think this golf course would suit someone like a Jake Knapp as well. He's playing some phenomenal stuff right now.

I look at Knapp. I think that guy could be a real talent moving forward. He seems to have lots of game. And he's not flagrant off the tee by any means. He's pretty long. He can be pretty straight as well at times. So I think Jake Knapp could suit here. You look at Saheith as well. Everyone thinks of Saheith because we've grown up with Saheith over the years, haven't we? And we're all terrible driver of the golf ball.

But as soon as he stands over the ball in the fairway or in the rough, he becomes a real elite golfer. Don't think like that anymore, listeners. This guy, the way that he's transformed his driving to both long and relatively straight, it's pretty revolutionary, really, when you look at his numbers in 2024.

And yeah, I'm with you. You know, don't forget it was top 10 at Augusta last year, a golf course where accuracy off the tee isn't that important. But, you know, being top 10 on your tournament debut at Augusta is something that's pretty rare.

That, to me, just suggests that this guy has got the game. But not only that, the mentality to be competitive in majors moving forward. So, yeah, I've put him up for the Wells Fargo. So I would love it that he actually wins this week and goes into this at a slightly reduced price than what we're seeing at the moment. But over in the UK...

66 to one on Saheed Tagala. I'm also seeing 66 to one on Ben Arn. And that, that to me is not a conversation. You would take Tagala 10 times out of 10 at the same price. Yeah. And every single year,

There's always going to be that player that breaks the mold a little bit. Like how did Denny McCarthy almost when your field village and finished top 10 at Brookline? How did Patrick Reed contend at winged foot? You're going to get one of those guys. And I think like,

It's been really surprising and fascinating how Denny McCarthy and Patrick Reed, to a certain extent, have been able to navigate these very long, difficult, thick, rough golf courses despite being one of the shorter players on each of their respective tours.

You're going to get one of those guys in the top 10. You just will. You're going to get a guy that's going to gain seven strokes putting. And it's like, how is this guy in the mix? But I still think their pathway is that much harder. Where just give me the, give me the Kurt Kityama, Cameron Davis, even another guy who finished top 10 at Oak Hill over. Give me that roadmap to success 10 times out of 10. Anyone else you want to throw out there before we get out of here, Steve? I know you're in a time crutch. No, I'm happy with that.

More than happy. For once, I'm actually going into a major where the clouds are kind of parting and you can really see some very strong strands of players that you want to go for. And it isn't always the case by any stretch. I agree with what you said. You just want to see something at Wells Fargo.

that just says to you, yeah, that completely backs up my thoughts on that particular player and that the course is going to fit. And actually, he is doing the things we want him to be doing, heading off to Kentucky. So it's going to be an interesting watch this week, I think. One name. Who's your pick to win? Brooks Koepka. Yeah. Brooks Koepka. And I wouldn't be surprised if Bryson DeChambeau was to win either. Yeah.

Yeah. I'm going to go a repeat of the caves Valley 2022 playoff where can't lay and Bryson are squaring off.

And this time, Bryson. It was Cantlay that ended up winning that playoff. Yeah, that broke my heart. I was on DeChambeau big style that week. I was as well. I'm going to say we get a repeat of the 2022 Caves playoff, and this time Bryson takes it over Cantlay. That's my guess. Let's hope so.

All right, Steve, anything you got to plug? What do you got going on this week at Golf Betting System? The standard. We've got this week, the end of the week before the weekend of the PGA, we will have our research podcast out.

You can follow me on X at Bamford Golf. Of course, it's golfbettingsystem.co.uk. We've got masses of stats for the PGA next year, next week, including I always like the Majors Championship breakdown that we pulled together with that, which now shows, by the way, that Scotty Scheffler is now the best players in Majors. I know you'll be surprised by that. Followed by Brooks Koepka, number two. Yeah, sounds about right. And Xander in the top four, believe it or not.

Yeah, I'd imagine Rory is top 10 in like over 50% of the signatures. Yeah, I think he's third. Yeah. Amazingly enough. So yeah, just keep your eye. There'll be the usual content from me. Just follow me on X at Bamford Golf and it all gets distributed via there. Thanks for having me on. You got it. Cheers, Steve. I'll see you at Pinehurst, my friend. Cheers.

All right, that is it for the podcast. Special thanks to Steve. Special thanks to Run Pure Sports. Special thanks to Betts, Burt's Golf, and The Rabbit Hole. And we will be back on this podcast feed.

Saturday night at midnight for my PGA Championship full betting preview. I will have my model finished. I'll have my picks finalized. We'll have a lot more relevant information from the Wells Fargo Championship, and that'll be a fun one. Until then, best of luck with your bets this weekend, and we will see you next time. Cheers. ♪ If I ventured in the slipstream ♪

Between the viaducts of your dream Where mobile steel rooms crack And the Dutch and the back road stop

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