Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Okay, great show. I am joined by Eric Patterson of The Score Today, someone I've wanted to have on the pod for a while. We do a little British Open recap and then get into the 3M. But before we get to the show, I want to talk about BetUS. BetUS is an online legal sportsbook in all 50 states. They have the best numbers on the marketplace all the time. I could not imagine not having BetUS in my arsenal. I love it, not just because of the golf odds that they will hang, but also because of their fast, steady,
secure and easy payout. So make sure to go to bet us.com and use promo code, pick the pup. That is the important part. Use promo code, pick the pup for a 125% bonus on your first deposit at bet us.com. Let's get to the show. All right. I'm joined by Eric Patterson today of the score and the score bet. Eric, how's it going, buddy? Thanks for joining me.
Doing well, man. Thanks for having me. I was going to say, if you hadn't invited me on for this podcast here, I'm not sure I would have been too deep into the 3M weeds, but I'm happy you did. I'm looking forward to it. Well, we can talk a little 3M, but I think we should start with the open. Just give me your take in a vacuum. There's a lot of directions we can go with this, but just in a complete vacuum, what are your thoughts if you had to start somewhere?
I think we have to... Man, there's a lot of ways I can go. Take it anywhere. We have to stop underestimating Colin Morikawa. I think that's... He's a top five. He's cemented himself as a top five player in the world. No ifs, ands, or buts. Doesn't matter his form going in. Doesn't matter the course. It doesn't matter the field. He's a contender no matter where he goes. Betting perspective. Look, hindsight's obviously 20-20 here, but 35-1, 40-1 on Colin Morikawa is...
I mean, I thought about it early last week. There is those reports that he didn't like the way his irons were moving through the turf. I mean, that's good reporting, whatever he struggled at the Scottish Open, but my, like that,
That got to me and I'm kicking myself right now because it's just, it's so obvious. This guy's just at another tier than, you know, even his peers. I think he's a, you know, you can, you can put them past way past Hovland and all those guys, but he's, he's cemented himself as a, you know, one of the best players in the world right now. And we have to start treating them like that. I completely agree. So I want to ask you this because I'm not kicking myself as much for not betting Morikawa. I mean, I,
here's my thing. Did you think it was going to play the way that it did? Oh, I knew it wasn't really supposed to be like, you know, that open championship wind rain. I didn't think it, the core, I thought the course might've played a little more lengthy. It seemed like when they started talking, they were softening up the fairways and the, you know, the, yeah, they were just worried that it was going to get too kind of fast. So they just slowed it down. I think,
That was kind of disappointing. And maybe that played into Morikawa's irons. Like maybe the Scottish open, the turf was like super rock hard. And then he moves over here to England and it was a little bit softer. So maybe that changed things up. But yeah, I, I guess from that standpoint, maybe I didn't,
maybe I looked over Morikawa because I thought it might've played a little bit more like an open, like a, you know, one where it's, where it's howling like 2025 all the time. And it's a bit rainy, but, um, it played like kind of kind of played like, what was that tournament? He won the workday tournament where he won down in South Carolina. It kind of reminded me of that. Yeah. And Morikawa obviously won that. So, uh, yeah, maybe I shouldn't kick myself as hard as I am, but, uh,
I mean, 40 to one, 35 to one. He was what? Number four last number four in the world last week going into it. That's you have to, I should have looked harder at it, but I didn't, but yeah, he's, he's incredible. I mean, yeah,
there's so much more you can say, but he's simply remarkable. He's incredible. He's, he's so good at what he does. And I'm at no point really that I think he was going to give that away on Sunday because I saw a tweet. It's like, uh, yeah, good luck chasing a guy who hasn't missed the center of the club phase for like 130 shots in a row. Like this guy just a pure flusher and he just doesn't miss. So, uh, yeah. And then you have, you probably led the field in putting too. So it's going to be tough to beat that combination.
I think he has... So I'm the same way, man. The course did not play the way that I expected it to. I thought that it was going to be...
I know that there wasn't going to be a ton of wind, but I still thought that if this course is playing firm and fast, it's going to be a pretty big test. And kind of the things that we all talked about during the week, like you heard so much about the quirkiness of this course. I watched a bunch of the open films of the last decade, and especially the one on Royal St. George's. Like the biggest thing that stood out to me that I talked about the most on my podcast was
It's a really strange course with a lot of blind shots. And when the ball gets on the ground, you don't really know where it's going to go. And what happens is when the course gets more firm and fast like that, it makes the bunkers play a lot bigger. And I think it was a no laying up guys that tweeted this out on Sunday or something, but they're like, it feels like,
no one is hitting the ball in the bunkers. It feels like the big numbers just aren't there. It didn't feel, you touched on a good point. Like part of the reason why I thought Morikawa was going to close the deal was not just because he was flushing it, but I didn't see the landmines. Like I wasn't seeing those giant numbers all week that British Opens are kind of attuned to. Like, I think there was that one big number by Molinari made an eight on Friday, but
other than that, like if you were going to, if you were going to lose on this course, it was going to be like a slow burn of bogeys and stuff like that. I didn't think there was the treacherousness, um, that I was maybe expecting for an open. I think it played a little bit. I don't want to be core setup killer guy. I don't think that guy's fun, but I think it played a little bit.
closer to a PGA tour course and a PGA tour course is target golf. It is on a week to week basis who can hit your irons the best. And there we go. Morikawa standing there right in front of all of us, but I'm not going to beat myself up too hard because I was very, very, very surprised by the way that the course played.
Yeah. You're, you're talking about like how the bunkers played. I think it was his drive, Morikawa's drive on 17, maybe 16 was the par three, I think 17. He hit a three wood, I think, or maybe a driver, whatever the commentator said, you know, this club brings all these bunkers into play and like the ball hit the ground and it just started trickling. And like there was bums.
it, what looked like fairway bunkers everywhere. It was like, how is this ball not going into that bunker? How is it not? I know exactly the shot you're talking about. I think there was like a ridge. It went maybe like right over top of the ridge. And then it looked like it might've been able to get to the fairway bunker ahead of them. And then it just stopped. I was like, dude, you couldn't, I couldn't throw the ball any better in between these like landmine pop bunkers in the middle of this fairway. So that was, I guess, frustrating. And the other thing it was like,
that hay that like on the first tee that on the first fairway or whatever, right side of the fairway on number one. And even some of the spots more califying himself in where he was in trouble, like that,
It wasn't as gnarly as it seemed like I thought they would be losing balls and like literally chipping out sideways, but these guys were getting wedges on it. Maybe the course was just a little too short, but these guys were getting wedges on it and putting it on the green. Like DJ, there was a shot DJ played. He was literally, you couldn't see his kneecaps. And then he put the ball to like three feet. I was like, okay, that something's going on here. Why is it not? Maybe it's just, I don't know. Maybe that's not the way it was designed to be played. But anytime I'm in knee high rough, I can't even hit the ball. I was like with a sand wedge.
By the way, like me saying this, it's not taking anything away from Morikawa's win. I think it was one of the most impressive performances I've ever seen in my life. I just, it comes back to the thing that I talked about a little bit yesterday in my podcast, which is,
The greenskeeper kind of gave us a hint about this where he said, we're watering the fairways. We're watering the greens. We're not used to the rough being the way that it is this time of year. So we're going to water the fairways and greens a little bit more so. So the balls aren't bouncing as much into the rough. And next time the greenskeeper says something like that, I'm just going to pay more attention.
Yeah. I guess that's, that's the, maybe the biggest takeaway is listen to what the greens keepers saying. Yeah. I, I know they didn't want, they didn't want to like take, they didn't want to put too much fire in those fairways and literally guys might not have found the ferry with all those humps and bumps. Um,
which is what I wanted. Yeah. There was, there was one, I forget the whole, but there was a shot more a cow played from the middle of the fairway where he was literally on like the peak of like a ridge that ran right. Like a spine that went right through the fairway. I was like, how was his ball sitting up on this little ridge here? Like if there was any bit of firmness, that thing would have rolled, you know, 20 yards left or 20 yards. Right. But he was like right on the top. I was like, how did he end up here? But yeah, you're right. Like just got to pay a little bit, but at the same time, I think, um,
I read too much into the news about Morikawa struggling with his irons. That brought me off of him. So maybe are we diving too double too deep? And maybe that's the one that brought us to Morikawa. Like sometimes you just in from a betting standpoint, you see a number, you bet it. You really don't have to think about it. We did that a few times last year with DJ. It's probably happened another handful of times where it just like, why is this Brooks Capgett frigging waste management? Phoenix guys should not be 35 to one. Just bet it. Doesn't matter.
It's probably going to be a losing bet, but there's a good chance. I mean, there's a better than his odds say chance that he should win. So, yeah, you can dive a little too deep, but at the same time, you're right. You got to pay attention to the conditions, especially at the open. Those variables are a little more drastic than what we're used to on the PGA Tour. But, yeah, it is what it is. I think I'm proud that I got Spieth right. I think he gave it a good run. Like, there were so many...
you know, everything was kind of lined up for him to play while he's been playing incredible all year. He plays well at the open trending towards, you know, um, he should be contending at a major again. And then like, I'm, I guess my I'll pat myself on the back a little bit and we're not alone. He was a very popular pick, but yeah, um, I,
Spieth was just kind of destined to contend this week, and I'm glad we kind of got that little bit of a sweat out of it. And maybe there's a hedge opportunity for some people out there. But yeah, Spieth kind of showed that we weren't too far off. Okay, before we put a bow on Morikawa, because I don't want the takeaway to be like Morikawa is an undeserving champion because it was not a real British Open. That's not what I'm saying whatsoever. Like I said, it was one of the most impressive performances I've ever seen.
I post this question on Twitter the other night where I did kind of way too early predictions for 2022 majors. And every single person that commented was some form of Brooks, Morikawa and Rahm was pretty much everyone's answer. Some of them multiple, some of them Brooks every time, some of them Morikawa every time, some of them Spieth every time and some of them Rahm every time. But it was some combination of that.
Do you see, actually, let me frame it this way. Over, under majors in his career, Morikawa, I'll say five. Over or under? Five's a lot. Five's a lot. Can I go for, give me, if you give me four and a half, I'd go over. Okay. I think you might, like five seems like a good spot for him. Just on his trajectory, he's probably, he's going to slow down. He's not going to win two every frigging eight times, but.
He seems like he can win any major. I mean, he should be able to perform at Augusta. Maybe the U S open might be the only one if they keep setting the courses up the way they are, but, um,
Yeah, I think he should have no issue once he figures out Augusta. So I would go five. I would take – I don't know. You gave me a round number, so I'll take the under to be safe because it is hard to project this guy's going to win six or seven majors. I agree. I think – I'm trying not to be a prisoner of the moment. I think five sounds about right. The thing that I think scares me with him is –
he has a really, really, or what should scare everyone else. I should say he has a really, really sustainable game. Like I look at someone like Bryson and I'm not sure Bryson's game is going to age. Well, him attempting 200 mile per hour plus ball speeds at 45 years old. I mean,
maybe, but I think what Bryson's doing right now, it takes a real toll on your body when you go to hit a ball like that and hit 500 balls a day and speed training. I think he's going to have to either reinvent himself or he's going to get hurt. You should talk to Tiger about that. I mean, when you swing so violently, the injury risk is just so much greater. And I look at a player like Morikawa and it's just so smooth. And I feel like it's a game that can last deep into your forties. Like I,
You look at someone like Paul Casey and Paul Casey's 44 years old and he's a really good player. And Paul Casey continues to play well and compete into his mid forties because he has a really smooth swing and he's a good iron player. It's the only reason why Casey's able to continue to show up everywhere all the time at 45. Morikawa is like the 100,000 times version of that on steroids where you
where's the concern? Like he doesn't have to really change anything for the next 25 years. It's just clinical. You're right. He's good for all the majors. The accuracy is like a cheat code. I think it trumps distance. And like, even with the distance thing, like he had a chance to win Torrey on the back nine. And the thing with that is, is yeah, he's a shorter hitter, but that doesn't really matter with Morikawa because Morikawa's four iron is more accurate than everyone else's eight iron.
Yeah, I was going to say his long irons are illegal at this point. He just, it doesn't matter how far back he is in the fairway. He's like, give him a, yeah, give him a five iron or six iron and he'll hit it closer than your nine iron. So he doesn't need to hit it three 30. Um, and just kind of going to the sustainability, like
Jordan Spieth, when he came out, everyone kind of, you know, he won those majors quickly, racked up three, but people did have concerns that his swing or, you know, it's not as technically sound as say a Morikawa. And I don't want to get into like the video analysis here, but you could see there is, there's parts of Spieth games that were sustained by, or like, you know, he was winning some of these majors by short game and putting, which, you know, like if, if your swing leaves you sure you're, you can still putt, but I mean,
It's hard to, it's hard to recover. Like I would kind of put Morikawa closer to what Rory did and, and kind of, it shows how hard it is to keep winning these majors because Rory won four pretty quickly too, with one of the best swings we've seen, like, you know, flawless pretty much. And how many people were answering this? How many people were answering this question over under Rory majors? It was probably like eight at the time. Oh yeah. And he's still stuck on four.
Yeah. So they get just so hard to win these things. But, um, and once you lose, I guess you have to lose a few maybe, and that kind of builds up that scar tissue that might be harder to overcome. Like Brooksie Brooks is, you know, the 2019 PGA when Brooks pretty much had that thing locked up before round four, and then he let Dustin back in. I think that, um,
Maybe people are talking about it. I'm not sure. But like when that when that New York crowd was chanting for DJ, I think I think that rattled Kepka and like that kind of proved that this this guy can, you know, he hung on to win it. But at the same time, he could have easily have lost that with I think he entered with like a six stroke lead in the final round and he hasn't really been the same.
since like obviously he's contending but like he hasn't won one since and he's still stuck at at four and Rory's still stuck at four he's he's been close a couple times but it it is hard to win these I'm not going to say Morikawa is on his way to double digit major wins that's kind of
unrealistic at this point, but I do think five is, I think it's safe. I don't know. It's, it seems, um, it seems like he should be able to, he should be there for the next, you know, 10, 15 years with, with no issues. I agree. And I think if you, the last thing, and then we can put a bow on the Morikawa, but it just, the one other thing that impressed me the most is, um,
like the mental game. And there are some great articles and interviews about his mindset out there that you can find. I don't feel the need to rehash all that stuff, but I mean the stones, man, like we know that he has a talent, but he has this like intangible, uh,
It's almost robotic like mindset where he never seems to get flustered. He never seems to get too high or too low. You rarely see him show any emotion at all. And all these guys work with golf psychologists and sports psychologists, uh,
That guy deserves a raise. Whoever's working with more collar, because for a 24 year old, I think that's the reason why you have to be kind of bullish on him. Long-term is like when you compare a sustainable game like that, that is bankable at any single course and is so repeatable with the irons with that mental side. Like it's, it's, he's just so unflappable out there, man. Like you didn't, you never felt like he was really in trouble or,
or, or I never really doubted it. Yeah. I, I think this was a moment that stood out for me. I think it was around three, um, maybe 15 on the, but maybe it was 17. Again, there was that hole where, where, where speed hit driver and gave himself like 60 yards in. And then him and for telly, I think both left it short. Um,
Spieth went on to make bogey. Yeah, it was 17. Spieth went on to make bogey. Louis hit driver again. Gave himself like 50 yards. The pin was like right on top of his shelf. He didn't... I don't think he hit the green. And then Morikawa laid back to like 139. Like, why is this 24-year-old who's never played an Open Championship before outsmarting players? He laid back, hit it like... Put the... I think it was like 140, hit his wedge. Gave himself a birdie look. Like, that just...
That's just kind of like a game plan level of maturity that he's just kind of outsmarting guys who have tons of experience in Open Championships. I just, that was kind of a pivotal moment when Spieth was kind of puking on himself a little bit. And I just thought like, man, this guy is, for someone who's never played the Open, he sure knows like how to make birdies. And he figured that course out pretty quickly, which made it.
It goes back to like how good these guys are. One week, Morikawa couldn't hit an iron in Link's conditions. And next week he's winning the open championship. So we have to remember how, how quickly these guys can adapt and how good they are at, at figuring it out. Like Morikawa put in what, like five new irons and dialed those things in, in a couple of days. Like these guys are insanely good. So we got to stop reading like an iron change is not that big of a deal for these guys. They're so good.
I think there was talk about speed through change designs too. And they look at, Hey, it was two guys at the top of the leaderboard. I knew irons in the bag. So we got to stop reading too much into that stuff. It
It happens all the time. This was my defense of Xander's arm lock thing is it's like these guys change things up all the time. They tinker all the time. They, you have to be tinkering on the PGA tour. Now with how good these guys are, you have to be trying to improve your game and get ahead. You only hear about it when it doesn't work. Like, like you, the, like I was doing a show with Nagel's the other day and he's like, it's a, it's the two point conversion in football. And,
It's the best decision ever if it does work and the worst decision ever if it doesn't work. Right. And so these guys are changing things up all the time. And you, I mean,
just you have no idea whether it's going to work or not but i mean there's no reason to believe that it won't as we've just seen yeah i think we gotta yeah we gotta stop talking about the club the club change narrative even the grip change all of it yeah yeah wrong thought people thought raw might struggle then he switched to callaway i mean it's just not it's not a thing that happens with these guys so yeah um i don't really know how to wrap it up other than yeah morikawa for the masters next year who are your picks for next year's masters then
Or next year's majors, I should say. What do you got? I like JT. I try and let my nuts hang a little bit with these guys. Like every single person that responded to that tweet, they just picked all of the favorites. It's like, okay, that doesn't happen. That's not what happens every year. It's safe. Yeah. Usually it is two or three favorites and one or two guys that
Like a Hideki where they're kind of in that 30 to 60 in the official world golf ranking, like not an elite, but a semi-elite.
I went with JT at the Masters. I like JT at the Masters. I think he gets that one. You're not about it. No, he's killed me the last two Masters. I've taken him both times. Yeah, me too. I always take him at the Masters. He didn't really blow it in the November one because DJ ran away with that. But, I mean, this past April, when he came out of the rain delay in April and dunked one into the water on 13, I think that...
that took some life out of me. So I get it. JT is going to win a master's eventually. I believe that I believe Rom is also going to win a master's too. So I think, I think you can't go wrong with, uh, with JT at Augusta. And then I went, I went Xander at Brookline. I like him on those small greens and I I've got a soft spot for Xander anyway. So you take that with
with what you will. I think Brooks is going to destroy Southern Hills. I played Southern Hills in September. He's going to eat that place alive. And then I tried to go a little bit outside the box with St. Andrews.
I think that's a good spot for Paul Casey. I think he lost. He came in second there to Louie in 2010. If there's ever a spot for Casey, I think that could be it. But, you know, I tried to have a little bit of fun with it. Yes. Like Rom and Morikawa, they should be favored at every single one along with Brooks and they have the best chance to do it. But I tried to go a little bit outside the box. What would you go with?
First of all, I just want to say like the names you listed that proves how hard it is for Morikawa to keep racking these majors up. Like you just named four deserving, like four guys who could legit win a major next year, Rahman and Morikawa weren't on the list. So it just shows how tough it is. First of all, what, what about, uh, Rory or DJ or any of those guys? Yeah. What, what about Southern Hills thinks you makes you think Brooks will eat it up?
It reminds me, remember, uh, Bella Reeve at 2016 it's well, I've never played Bellary, but I just remember seeing it on TV. It's so the thing about Southern Hills is it's not extremely long by any means, but it's very fast greens sloping. The fairways are, I don't want to say they're
super narrow at all i think i think guys will be able to take advantage of that course it's in such good shape it's so well uh manicured like it's one of those places where they have the sub air systems in the green and you go there and it's like not a blade of grass is out of place it's like augusta it's like maybe the nicest golf course that i've ever seen uh maintenance wise and i
I think it's going to be an iron fest and one of those major championships that Brooks just really puts his foot on the gas and really likes a course like that. It's got that Bellary feel to it. It got it.
it's not like where it's where remember Bella Reeve at what it wasn't very hard by any means. It was one of the easier PGA championships. I think it, it, it reminded me of that place a lot. Now, of course we may look really stupid. They may do a bunch of different crazy things to trick it up between now and then, but it reminded me a lot of Bella Reeve and seeing Brooks dominate there. So that's kind of what I'm going with. All right. You want my math, maybe my majors picks. Yes. I haven't even thought about these.
I think I'll give speed the green, another green jacket. I'll go with man. U S open Victor Hovland. Why not? I like it, man. I think, I think DJ can win the PGA and I, and I'm going to go, I think a Capca gets the open.
At St. Andrews. Those are jockey. I think St. Andrews, I get, we better get wind next year. People are going to be pretty pissed with the scores at St. Andrews. If, if the conditions where they were like here, um, at, at Royal St. George's for St. Andrews, then man, we're going to have some, some people, uh, with their pitchforks. Really? Yeah. They're yes. They're like a lot of par three. I think Bryson could probably drive. If I'm remembering this correctly, there's like
seven par fours that Bryson could drive maybe. So, I mean, it's like the easiest course and all those Tiger Woods video games when there's no, you kind of imagine like when those guys can actually hit it three 50, three 60. So yeah, it's going to be without wind. It's kind of, it's going to be a bloodbath.
Okay, man. Well, let's put a bow on the major talk. Let's talk the task at hand, which is the 3M Open. We're going to the Midwest this week, Eric. It is TPC Twin Cities. It's a par 71 measuring 7,413 yards. It's an Arnold Palmer design in 2000, undergone a renovation by Tim Herron and Tom Lehman in 2018.
Bank grass fairways and bank grass greens, a lot of water on this course. It's quite easy. It's played as one of the easiest courses in both installments of this two year tournament. Wolf won in 2019 at 21 under and Michael Thompson won last year at 19 under. I've already done a pretty extensive preview for the course on my Sunday pod. So I'll kick it to you, Eric. What kind of comes to mind for TPC 20 twin cities and how you're handicapping this tournament?
I remember when this came onto the schedule, I went and looked like it a couple of years ago, I went and looked at like an aerial view of what this course looked like. And it was just water everywhere. And it reminded me what, like you see it. If you zoom out over like a community course down in Florida, I think that's what I compared it to. It just looked like a gated community golf course where there's just water anywhere you look. So I believe water's in play on 15 holes, maybe even more. It's just,
Don't find the water and you'll be in good shape. So it's, I mean, there's, it's a TPC course. There's pretty much nothing to write home about these places, but, um, and I believe it was like an old sod farm. So that'll tell you how, how flat it is. It's, uh, there's probably not that much to it. I, I remember, uh,
Remember, I was driving out to the east coast of Canada when when Bryson versus Wolf was happening. So I didn't quite remember too much from that year. And then, yeah, I do remember Fina kind of gagging away last year. But if you if you ask me to draw 18 holes, I wouldn't be able to do it. So it's it's more just look at the numbers, look at the look at the odds and go from there. Truthfully.
Well, let's get to the odds. Let's get to the favorites. So all odds are courtesy of bet us Eric, but feel free to throw out any, any other numbers that you have gotten on guys, as long as they're not completely shitting on the bet us numbers. Um,
but let's start with the 35 and below range. So Dustin Johnson at plus seven 50 Louis, I'm seeing at 14 to one. I'm also seeing female at 14 to one Patrick Reed at 18 to one Robert McIntyre at 28 to one Cameron Tringali at 30 to one and Matthew Wolf at 33 and Sergio Garcia at 33. Let's stop there. Are you betting any of those favorites?
No chance. I, yeah, me neither. Yeah. There's no chance. I love these weeks because it's almost like you get like, if DJ wins, if DJ shows up and wants to win a tournament, go for it. DJ take, take my money as losses as well, because that's just, I'm willing to eat it, but you're getting them off a major off a long trip home. I mean, what is DJ doing in Minnesota the week after playing the Brit, the British? It's just,
it doesn't make sense. So thanks for showing up because you're giving us some better odds on all these other guys. Same goes for Louie. I mean, we're back in America on a PGA tour event, like Louie 14 to one, not a major hard pass. I've, I've never been sucked into female before. So I
Again, yeah, there's just no one of interest here. The only guy I actually liked was Brian Harmon, who kind of he actually withdrew. So now it's now there's really nowhere to go. I'm not going to touch Tringali at that number. And I understand the Wolf thing. He's played well here before, but I just have no clue where that guy's games at. So, yeah, there's way too much risk at this top for the for those odds when you compare them when you drop down the board and there's some some pretty nice names.
Here's the problem that I have with Wolf. And I talked about this a little bit on my Sunday show. But Wolf practices at the same course as my best friend in Oklahoma. That's why when I played Southern Hills, it was on a golf trip visiting him in Oklahoma. And he texts me saying,
on Saturday and he's like, Wolf is on fire right now. I'm playing in the group right in front of him and his caddy. He is just absolutely striping it right now. And it's like, well, you told me that about Austin Eckrode too. And I bet Austin Eckrode at the Rocket Mortgage and that didn't work out. What he did say about Wolf though, is he said that he talked to Wolf's caddy and Wolf's caddy was like,
Wolf, he's in a phenomenal state of mind. The reason that he skipped the Open Championship had nothing to do with the prior mental health concerns or whatever that caused him to skip out on a few other events earlier in the year. He just didn't want to deal with the COVID bullshit. Yeah, I understand that. Which I totally understand. But in turn, at the same time, if Wolf's game is that good...
If you really believe that you have a chance to win the fucking British Open, like, you jump through whatever hoops you have to. Like, do you think that any of those guys, like, Morikawa and Bryson or any of those guys, like, if they have to deal with a bunch of quarantine bullshit and stuff like that, if they really believe that they can win the tournament, it's the fucking British Open. They'll do it. So that's, like, the only concern that I'm like, I don't know where to go with it. Yeah, I don't know. Like...
Wolf doesn't seem like he wants to take golf too serious right now. So flying across the world and locking down in a room without some friends and family and your coaches and like just not being able to enjoy yourself does kind of seem like a situation for hell with someone who doesn't really want to be doing that to begin with. So I, I understand him is skipping it. It sucks that he's, I mean, he's so young. We're saying he's, I was about to say he's wasting opportunities. Guy's like 21 years old. He's got plenty of,
plenty of chances to go win the Open in the future. So, yeah, take care. He's looking after himself. I can respect that.
Okay. So we're both skipping out on that range. Let's get into the mid tier. I'm not going to list all of these guys, Eric, because they're just, and the odds kind of range from a bunch of numbers all over the place. So where would you probably start? Are you starting somewhere in that 40 to 50 range? Yeah, this is, I got a few guys highlighted here. First of all being, I got, I see Baba at 40 to one.
Not generally a big Baba guy, especially on a course that he's never won at before, but he's playing really well. He played well at the rocket mortgage. He,
Should have won the travelers before he's just started making a boatload of bogeys on the last few holes. Um, he didn't make the long trip across the country across, you know, from, from the open to, to the state. So, um, I'm sure he's well rested. I think 40 to one in this field is kind of, uh, juicy. I don't know what you're seeing, even like a 35, I think would be pretty respectable on Bubba. Um,
That's definitely something I would be betting. He wins a decent amount and he's playing well. He seems to be putting better than he has for a while. So yeah, I like Bubba a lot.
I'm with you. I like Bubba too. I think he makes the most sense here. Bubba is one of the three guys that I bet. He's just playing really well right now. He's made seven cuts in a row, four top 20s. He had a chance to win the Travelers, gagged it on Sunday, but he was very candid about that and came back the next week and posted a number at the Rocket Mortgage and finished sixth. It's really the irons that have been so good, Eric, and we didn't talk a ton about this in the course preview, but if you look at the formula with how guys have had success here, it's
all irons like Morikawa and Wolf. You see at the top of the leaderboard, you see guys like Wolf and Bryson at the top of the leaderboard and you think kind of off the tee prowess. So that's not actually what happened. Like they, Bryson and Wolf had unbelievable iron weeks and obviously Morikawa too. That was also how Michael Thompson won as well. And I just look at how Bubba's hitting his irons right now. And I look at like the guys in this range that I'm seeing around him, like,
McNeely and Fowler, like, and Griot and Lucas Herbert. Like I think Bubba's game is in a much better place than all those guys. So I'm with you. I got, I got nothing to add there. You're right. This is like, this is pretty much get it in the fairway and then, and then hit it as close as you can. Cause there's not, this is a PGA tour golf. Maybe we're back to dartboard dartboard tour, just hitting stick. I think Bubba, Bubba at 40 is, I guess, you know, I always play the game. Like if,
If Bubba came out, if the odds were listed, he was 28 or 20, whatever, 22, 20. I probably would have been like, that's a fair number. But 40? Double that? I'm going to take that anytime I see it. That's just kind of the...
my process first glance, what number do I think is, you know, twice as high as it should be. And that's kind of where I go. So Bubba's, Bubba's where I'll be starting. And, um, hopefully we're not agreeing the entire way down the board, but yeah. Well, give me your next guy. Give me your next guy. You already took a little bit of a shit on him. So I don't think we'll agree here, but,
I'm going to go with Ricky Fowler. I'm typically not a Fowler guy. I talked with Feinberg about it. He loved that I was on board with Fowler because we all know what he thinks about Fowler. But I think there's just something. He's playing a lot better. There's really no denying it. Eighth at the PGA, 11th at the Memorial. I think he shot 65 to close last week. He did? Yeah. I love...
guys coming off a round where they found something, they're feeling good. I mean, I found personally, I found a 50 on him that I could see it at 40. You know, there's something going on there with Fowler. I think, again, this field is just is pretty god awful once you get too deep into it. And again, Fowler, I get not someone I bet, but I'll take it at 50 to one because I do think he's found something.
Okay. I mean, I was on, um, I was on Ricky last week at, uh, at the British, not, not to win, but I played him a lot in draft Kings and, um, I played him in the top 40 market as well. And yeah, he's a little, he had one really, really bad around on Saturday when the conditions were harder, but you're right on Sunday, it was awesome. The draft,
difficulty with the British open is there's no shot tracker at all. So, I mean, I can, I looked at greens and regulation head a little bit, but it's really hard to get a sense of, you know, how these guys did at the British open and how they kind of made their, Hey, like, is this a situation where like, I like Keegan Bradley, right?
And so I like Keegan Bradley missed the cup by one at the British. Did he miss the cut because he hit the ball incredibly well and just missed a bunch of putts like Keegan Bradley tends to do, or maybe his irons regressed and like, we don't know. You know what I mean? Like that's the difficulty with the British open and the NTT, by the way, just quick aside, like what was up with that? Like the NTT data wall.
I don't know. They need to figure out their app because it's by far the, like having no data for this is just, you're in a major championship, figure it out. I don't know about this NTD data wall thing. I saw it all over the app, but yeah, it was a nightmare to get through.
Anyway, we digress. I like Keegan. You like Ricky. I just look at the roadmap that Wolf and Morikawa gave us where they finished one, two in this tournament by just going absolutely nuclear on approach and being basically a field average putter. And I think that's good news for Keegan. I think if your irons are on point here, you can really score. So I like Keegan at 50 to one going up a little bit further. Eric, do you have a, do you have a next guy?
Well, I will go. I mean, depends on what odds you're looking at. I've been kind of clamoring for Chris Kirk for a little bit now. I like that. He just seems, again, this seems like a target golf. I mean, where did...
One of the things I look at for past winners is like, where did they play well in their past career? Like Michael Thompson, he's, I know he won the Honda. So that kind of goes, bodes well for, for Fowler, but I'm pretty sure, you know, Michael Thompson kind of dominates at these like RBC heritage, those like target golf type courses. So Chris Kirk is just,
He's kind of one of those robotic guys who just swings it down the middle, hits a green, and hopefully makes the putts. I think I got 66-1 on him, which I think is pretty nice. He came 12th at the Rocket Mortgage a couple months ago. He was 7th at the Heritage. I know this is back in April, but still, it's showing that there's something there. Even 26th at the Memorial is pretty solid for Chris Kirk. So I just...
Yeah. It's, it's not sexy. It's not a, it's not a young guy up and coming guy, but I think that's a pretty valuable number on, on Kirky there. I like Kirk. I'm a fan. He's one of the guys that I have circled. I haven't made a move yet. Um, if I don't end up getting there with an outright, I'm going to use him in DFS. I think he's a solid play here. I mean,
I don't know if this course perfectly highlights his skill set because he has such a good short game, and I feel like short game doesn't really matter here. But at the same time, the ball striking has been really good. He had his best off the tee week at the Rocket Mortgage in four starts. He's a good long iron player and really good on birdie fast. I think you're kind of right about the fit. He's played well at the Honda before as well, so I like that. The other two guys in this range that I'm kind of mulling over is...
Is Doug Gimm for the same reason that I like Keegan, where I just kind of took a stand with my research where...
I really think you could do a whole lot worse this week than just playing the best iron players in the field and hoping one of them pots well. And GIM is a top five iron player in this field. He's gay. He gained 7.7 strokes on approach at the John Deere. He's number one in proximity from one 75 to 200 yards. He's number one in weighted proximity from one 75 plus is off. The T stuff is getting better too. So I like GIM. And then the other guy, uh,
He's really underpriced in DFS, so I think he's going to be really popular. But Johnny Vegas, I haven't gotten a chance to really listen to anything today. All I've done is my own research and talk to some of the guys that I talk golf with, but
I'm feeling a Vegas vibe this week. He's underpriced in DFS. I got a quick glance at the very early Fantasy National ownership projections. I know my buddy John, who's PGA Tout on Twitter, he also wrote up Vegas in his article. I don't know. Maybe it's too obvious. He pops in my model. That means he's going to pop in other people's models. But guess who else was obvious? It was Jordan Spieth. And I...
Got to the point, Eric, on Sunday night where I do this every week, where I said, Jordan Spieth is too obvious. I am not going to do it. It's too fucking obvious. Golf betting is not that easy. And guess what? Jordan Spieth was a good play, and I'm glad I ended up doing it. He had a chance to win that tournament on the back nine. I think Vegas makes a lot of sense. I understand why people will go to him this week. And since I'm probably not going to use him in DraftKings, I like him at 70 to 1.
Yeah, 70 is a nice number. I'm seeing 50. So if you want to bet that now before the lines start moving, I'd –
tell you to go do that i think vegas was a big popular pick at the u.s open right after yeah he came second at palmetto and then everyone was kind of in on him at the u.s open he made the cup it putted like putted like crap so um yeah vegas this this does seem like a course you could probably overpower fino just you know launching at 330 out there and hitting hitting wedge into every green so i like that vegas play um what are your thoughts on uh dylan fratelli because he's
It's kind of greasy. He hits it long, but he's played well here before. I think he came... Where's the leaderboards here? But he's definitely had a solid result here in the past. I've got too many windows open, but played solid at the Open Championship, obviously playing in one of those later groups. Yeah, he came T18 at the 3M last year. I think...
For Tully, I don't know. He wanted the John Deere's kind of a shorter course where he can kind of, I don't want to say overpower it, but hit it far enough, hit enough fairways and he can get pretty hot with the putter. So what are your thoughts on for Tully? I haven't made too many other bets in this range.
You know what's fascinating about Fratelli is I just am looking at it now. His best three finishes in the last eight months are the Masters, the Players, and the British Open. Those are his only top 25s in the last six months came at those tournaments. So where does the 3M Open rank against those three tournaments? Correct. Yeah. So...
That's weird. He's risky, man. He misses a lot of cuts. Like, he misses a lot of cuts. But at the same time, this is a betting show. And, I mean, he's shown elite upside. All these... There's a lot of love on some guys that have played really well at the Barbasol, like a Luke Les, for example, who I like as well. But, like...
You know, a guy like Fratelli, he's contending at the British Open, you know? So I think that's kind of a different conversation that we're having. I just... He pops in these random tournaments and it's impossible to predict. So I have no idea what to do with him. I think, yeah, I think he probably...
I don't think I'd go at 50. If you can get like a 66, I would see it. I'm not going to back him here. I know he played pretty solid at this tournament in the past and popped a little bit last week. But yeah, you're right. He's playing...
Pretty sporadic golf at the moment. Just, uh, yeah, not as not Mr. Consistent at the moment. So I, I I'm on board with, with Gim. Um, I'm gonna have to think a little bit harder about for telly, but I do like Vegas. I have a, an 80 where I'm up here in the great white North. So I might have to nibble on that because that is, uh, you've kind of, you kind of sold me on them there.
Um, anyone else before we get into some real bombs, Eric, um, like I've got a couple guys above a hundred and there's one guy I bet above one 50 and there are a couple other guys above a hundred that I'm eyeing, but anyone else you want to throw out there in kind of the 50 to 100 range before we toss out a through bombs before we get out of here?
Yeah, I'll throw out Chez Reavy. We were on him at the John Deere. He didn't come through, but he's playing pretty well. The irons are there. He's gained, I mean, I don't have strokes gain data for last week, but five straight weeks of strokes gain approach gaining there. He gained strokes putting at the John Deere, which is nice.
I see him as low as 80. I'm pretty sure I've seen him at triple digits. Doesn't it seem like a course where, you know, Chez is just knocking in the fairway and just start heating up with the wedges? Yeah, irons are awesome right now too. Yeah, so I think, you know, this is, you brought me onto the show where you just start naming the greasiest guys in the field, but I like Chez and I am seeing,
What was Stu Sink to win the Open Championship last week? Probably 200 to 1. Okay. I thought he might have been closer to like 100, but... You could be right. It's probably 125. Yeah. 66 to 1 for a two-time winner this year at a course where... He burned everyone last week. I don't know if you saw his... 77. Yeah. You played 400 in the first round and then just fell off a cliff. So...
If you want to ride the hot hand in the PGA Tour, Sink's a winner, and he's sitting there at 66-1 on a course where he's plenty long, and he's proven that he can win before. The RBC Heritage comparison's there if that's even a thing. Michael Thompson's played there again. I keep repeating myself, but Sink at 66, not bad after everyone kind of got scorched.
You know who I didn't talk about at all that I just thought about when you mentioned Sink at 66? What about Woodland at 60? Yeah, I don't know what's going on with Gary. He was hurt, and then he was healthy, and now he's... I don't even know how well he's playing. He's kind of... I was on Woodland a few weeks ago. I forget where. Maybe I want to say maybe the Memorial or the PGA. I kind of forget, but
Yeah. He's, he's missed three of his last four cuts. I'm not, I'm not sold on Woodland. I'm not sure what's going on there. He's not really showing much consistency. The ions are there, but just kind of a little bit too sporadic for me. I get it though. I completely get it. He's a talent, but I'm just not really showing it enough for me. Yeah. It was the number that kind of popped for me. Yeah. It's not like seeing him next to Ryan Moore and Hank Webiotta and Luke West. Yeah.
Yeah. But again, this could be one of those times where it's the number there sitting beside guys that really have no business being beside them. We're interested in betting Vegas below or right around Woodland. I would argue they're two different players, but yeah, I don't know. He just doesn't quite do it for me. Okay, Eric. I'm going to give you a couple bombs that I'm eyeing. And speaking of greasy, they get...
they get a little dark, but then you give me, you can either respond to mine or throw some out as well on your own. But I'm looking hard at Joseph Bramlett at 200 to one. I like Bramlett a lot. He just hits the ball a really long way and he's a good long iron player. He,
Played well at the Byron Nelson a couple of weeks ago, which is another wide open, easy TPC course, just coming off a good finish at the Barbasol. He's a bad putter. I love bad putters, but you know, when he gains strokes putting, he kind of pops a little bit. So I think Bramlett at 200 Scott Stallings at one 50 he's been hitting the ball really well. Like,
He was really chalky at the John Deere. He was a little bit more expensive and very highly owned. He is cheaper at this tournament and has no buzz whatsoever and double the odds. He finished 50th at the John Deere, losing strokes putting. I don't really know what changed with Scott Stallings. If you liked him at the John Deere, I think you probably want to like him here. He continued to hit the ball really well. So if I can get Scott, I believe I bet Scott Stallings at 80 to one at the John Deere, like
I think he's worth a look at 150 to one here. And then just a couple other guys, uh,
That just popped for me statistically. Knox, I could see Scott Brown. I could see Neesmith on just a pure iron play. Now we're getting into more like using some guys in DFS. Keith Mitchell showed up in a couple of things for me and Bo Hoag just gained like nine strokes on approach at the Barbasol. Yeah, I was going to say Bo Hoag is probably, I'll probably bet him. I saw 125. I just, there's,
Oh man, I might've closed it, but he's played well at the 3M before here. He came 12th last year. So I like to see that. Gained a lot of strokes putting, but I mean, Hogue's, he's gained over six strokes on his approach shots in two of his last three events. So there's something, there's something clicking there. I like Hogue. I've been betting Bo Hostler a little, probably too much. I'm on all the Bo's, but...
I just, I probably won't be able to get off Hostler. He's, he's, he's showing a little bit of flash here with his, uh, with his results. I'm trying to, trying to pull them up. Probably should have had it before I started rambling about them. But, um, yeah, I just, it's not, again, not sexy, but Hostler's gained, uh,
He gained 8.3 strokes or 4.9 strokes tee to green last week. He's gained over four strokes tee to green in, uh, what four of his last five events. So something going on with Bo Hosler, which I think you can get them at one 25. Um, I kind of like that. Uh, and what about, uh, this, uh,
I'm like, yeah, I'm not, you know, you come on these, I don't do these shows often. So you come on and I start talking about dudes that I never even consider, but Cameron champ, Cameron champ, do anything for you? Yeah. Yeah. He almost, he was like around at the John Deere classic came out of nowhere. Um, I mean, if anyone can kind of,
get hot and win one of these junkie events. It's that's kind of champs. M O he, uh, his John Deere numbers are 6.2 off the tee. That's expected 0.3 with the, with his approach and 2.7 putting. So came 11th. I don't know. One, that's pretty good for someone who wins a decent amount. Like,
I mean, not a decent amount, but you know, he's, he's been one of the worst putters. I think he might be the worst putter going on like in the PGA tour right now, but gaining 2.7 in his last start, there's, there might be something there. This is, it's an easy enough course where if he hits it far enough, he can get a little hot with his irons. I think there might be something there at champ. I'm I'll have to, uh, check back with my Twitter feed to see if I go all in on champ or not.
I will. I like that. I could see that with Champ. I think you're right. The putting has been absolutely dreadful, but the off the tee never left. He's continued during this whole very difficult stretch for him, the 2021 season. He's still gained off the tee pretty much every single start. Just looking at it now, it's just the putter has been god awful. And maybe he found a little something at the John Deere. And
I think if you can compete at the John Deere, I don't think it's like the perfect comp and the most perfect comp. It's a little bit shorter, but you know, it's a TPC course that is bent grass and has pretty wide open fairways and a lot of scorable par fives and birdie opportunities. So I like that play on cam champ and he is the type of guy sometimes that you see with
Sometimes when there's any signs of life, the odds just plummet immediately with one of these guys, like we see with Matt Wolfe. And that hasn't happened with Cam Champ. Despite seeing some signs of life, you're still getting pretty big numbers on him. So that's a good call on Champ, man. Well, Eric, thanks for joining me, buddy. Where can everyone... Or actually, you know what? Before I have you plug your stuff, let's do a little quick recap. So the bets that I've made so far are...
I bet Bubba at 40. I bet Keegan at 50. And I bet Stallings at 150 were the only moves that I've made. I'm eyeing Vegas and I'm eyeing Gim both in that 70 range. What about you, my friend? So I jumped on Bubba at 40. I got Fowler at 50, but I don't hate the 40. I've also bet Kirk at 66.
And then, so I got, I've already got too big of a card and we're only on Monday, but so I got Bubba Fowler, Kirk, Gim at 80. And I will probably either add Vegas or Fratelli, probably leaving Vegas. He kind of sold me there. And then I'll probably throw on Hogue, Champ and Hostler at the, at the tail end. That's,
I mean, like I said, without doing this show, I probably would have had a light exposure week. But, you know, you do a little bit of research and you want to start. So when I when I come up empty and DJs won this thing by 10, I'm going to come knocking on your door.
Yeah, that's always in play. That's always in play with DJ, but you know, it's just, you get priced out of these guys and it's, it's kind of tough to make a case for betting DJ at plus seven 50 in a golf tournament with 156 players, but we'll see, man. Well, Eric, where can everyone find your work the rest of this week?
I would recommend everyone to download the score app. And if you're in those States where the score bet is legal, do that as well. Find me on Twitter at EPAC golf. And Andy, I do want to give you a little kudos. This is a, this is a crowded space, the golf betting space, but you know, you've,
You're making a little bit of a name for yourself here. You're cranking out content. I saw you were doing 3M shows on the weekend during the open. So hats off to you, man. Keep up the grind. I like what you're doing. I appreciate that, man. I've got a long way to go, but I've just finally reached the point where my parents don't think I'm a total idiot for quitting my job to pursue this. I'm only at that point where they're like, okay, you're not
a total, total idiot for going. They can see where it's headed. So yeah, that's, yeah, you got to prove them right a little bit. And then, yeah, it, the, trust me, the doors will start opening is when you, you know, put your, you know, start, start cranking out the content and grinding these, these long hours and these, even these 3M opens that you got to do. So yeah, man, keep, keep, keep up the good work. Eric, thanks again for joining me, man. And we'll talk again soon, buddy. Appreciate it.
That's it for the show, guys. Please remember to like, rate, review, and subscribe to the Pick the Pup Golf Show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. You can find me on Twitter at ADPLackSports. I think that's it. Oh, I'm going on Pat Mayo's show, Pat Mayo's DraftKings Picks tomorrow, so tune in. That's always fun. I don't know when that'll be out, but look out for me on that, and we will be back.
on this podcast feed next week for the Olympics. Maybe. I don't know. We'll see. Anyways, that's it. Cheers. Thank you.
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