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Let's talk Pebble Beach for a second. I'll start with what I got right. I got plenty of things wrong, Hovel and Fitzpatrick, but let's start with Winsome because this relates to my confusion about what is happening with this tournament. I talked extensively on the podcast about this last week, talked a lot about it, far more so in the Discord and in my articles, but...
My numbers have just been incredibly above market on Wyndham Clark for, for months, uh, well beyond his win at the U S open. Uh, but something in my numbers have just been continuously saying, this is a real guy. Um, he has been top five in my model, every single tournament that he's played this year. Now I run my stuff a lot differently than most people do. Um,
but it works. It works really well. And so when it identifies a player like this week after week, that's just like continually jamming into my brain right in front of my face. This guy is really good. His ability to putt inside 15 feet, his ability off the tee, his short iron plays long iron play. This guy is not going away. You have to keep hammering it. Like I have been, I've been him every single week this year. And now I'm,
do I think because my numbers are higher on market than Wyndham Clark that he's a top five player in the world? No. But do I think he is a proverbial top 20 guy on this version of the PGA Tour? Unequivocally. And he was priced at 7.4K. That's shameful, okay? 100 to 1, he was double the odds of Bo fucking Hosler.
Now, what the fuck is Bo Hosler won? And you look at Wyndham Clark, let's put his course fit aside, even though I thought this was a tremendous course fit. You know, he beat a field like this, a field better than this at Quail Hollow, check. U.S. Open in California, check. 7.4K, 100 to 1. And that's what you're paying for at Rumpure. That's hopefully what I'm sent out to do is for...
My model to identify players like this, find discrepancies in the market and capitalize on. So I'm rooting for all the other members holding that same ticket. Now, whether he wins a tournament or not, I have no idea because as I sit here recording this at 7.30 p.m. Pacific time,
or sorry, 7 30 PM Eastern time. Uh, I'm on Pacific time. I always in my head convert to Eastern time because I figure that's what most listeners are on, but I'm, I'm on the West coast. Uh, I'm actually right now at my girlfriend's place in Northern California, about an hour away from pebble beach. Uh, and it's rainy here. It's kind of dreary. Um,
Now, it could change, but you're probably listening to this podcast sometime on Sunday, Sunday morning, maybe even Monday. But as I record this on Saturday evening, as I mentioned, around 7.30 p.m. Eastern time, the PGA Tour has given no real plan on how this tournament is going to play out. Probably get out of the recording and hopefully maybe there's something. But to me, this is just coming off as...
wildly unprepared. I mean, I've been checking the weather forecast as I'm sure many people have all week. This Sunday forecast didn't just come out of nowhere. We knew that Sunday was going to be rain and 60 mile per hour wind gusts for what? Six days, five days a week. And as we sit here at 7 30 PM on Sunday night, uh,
What's the game plan? Are we done? Obviously, I'd love that for my Wyndham ticket, but this is probably the PGA Tour's biggest non-players championship event of the season at the most recognizable golf course in the world.
And if they play in 60 mile per hour wind gusts and rain at Pebble Beach on Sunday, on one hand, that could be the golf viewing experience of the year, if not the decade. But on the other hand, if players start complaining, right?
They can't get balls to stop rolling on the greens. Well, you're just playing with fire, right? And a Monday finish is terrible for TV networks. You're losing that primetime CBS Sunday window, which in terms of dollars is the biggest asset that the PGA Tour has. You're spilling into Super Bowl week. Super Bowl Monday is a big day in the sports world. Nance.
kept alluding to on the broadcast. Like, yeah, all my Superbowl stuff starts tomorrow. Okay. What happens there? If you have to call golf now on a Monday morning, when Superbowl Monday is one of the biggest, you know, ESPN first take mornings of the year and Phoenix is another really big tournament. It's not far from Pebble beach. It's not close either. And at least, uh,
Half the guys in the field, 70-ish percent of this field is playing Phoenix. That's another big, huge PGA Tour tournament week from a money-making standpoint. And so if this is spilling into Monday, Monday afternoon...
What time are players getting there? It's not a drive. It's a flight. One less day of practice rounds. They do a ton of media stuff. Tuesday pro-ams finishing on Monday is not good for players. It's not good for fans. It's not good for CBS. It's not good for the suits in Ponte Vedra beach stakeholders. It's you can do it, but it's not ideal. And again,
You look at the other options and it's like, are you going to call your biggest tournament of the year after 54 holes, lose the potential of playing pebble on Sunday? That's not a direction that seems like you want to go down social media wise, right? Point being, it just seems like,
We knew what we were getting on Sunday now with this weather forecast for a week, Monday, Tuesday. Again, I've been looking at this every day, multiple times a day. What we're supposed to get on Sunday actually hasn't really changed much over the past couple of days. And I'm not suggesting that any of this is easy, that this is an easy decision, but it just feels like
this and with many of their endeavors, the PGA tour is kind of just flying by the seat of their pants. So we'll see what happens. Um, go wind them, go wind them. Uh, all right, let's talk Phoenix.
One of the more fun events on the PGA tour schedule. I think everyone loves this one. It's been on the PGA tour schedule since 1939, formerly known as the Phoenix open and was held at Phoenix country club for years. And starting in 1987, it moved to its current home and,
TPC Scottsdale, which is a little bit outside of downtown Phoenix. So we've been coming to this course for almost 40 years. We have a lot of data on TPC Scottsdale and it features some of the most predictive course history we'll see on the PG tour. And, you know, just running through the former winners here that, you know, this is the only tournament that over the last decade,
60% of the Phoenix Open over the last decade has been won by three players. Scotty Scheffler went back-to-back 2022-2023. We were on Scotty for the first one, 2022, back when Scotty Scheffler was 25-1. I can confidently say we were there for Scotty's first win ever when he was 25-1.
Can't say I've bet a month since or been there for the ones after that. But we were there for the first one, 2022. But Scottie went back-to-back. Brooks has won this in 2021 and 2015.
And Hideki went back in 2016 and 2017. So Hideki Brooks and Scotty Scheffler have won 60% of Phoenix Opens over the last decade. Outside of that, it's been a lot of Ricky Fowler and Gary Woodland. There was a Webb Simpson year. Xander's been amazing here. Justin Thomas has been amazing here. We can talk a little bit about
these types of players have played so well here. But let's start with a little bit of the basics of the course. This is
As I mentioned in Scottsdale, Arizona designed by Jay Moorish and Tom Weiskopf in 1986 with a Weiskopf redesign in 2014. It's a par 71 measuring 72, 7,261 yards on the scorecard. Although because this golf course is at altitude, it's important to note that it plays a lot shorter than that. Um,
This has like the longest driving distance on tour. A lot of that is because of the firmness of the course, the lack of rough, the driver heavy approach that you're going to see a lot of players take. And of course, the fact that it's altitude fairways, Bermuda with perennial ryegrass and fine fescue rough Bermuda grass with perennial ryegrass and fine fescue measuring 2.5 inches on average and
Tiff Eagle Bermuda with Poa trivialis perennial ryegrass measuring 7,069 square feet on average. Some of the bigger greens on tour. So like I mentioned, it plays a lot shorter than the yardage sitting at 1,530 feet above sea level and
Uh, and wise cop has done some redesign work in 2014. Didn't change it really a ton. Um, he just made it a little bit longer and a little bit more difficult. And, you know, as you've seen since then, uh,
the winning score has been somewhere in between 14 and 19 under par every single year. So every year you kind of know what you're getting in terms of the Phoenix open. The conditions are fairly similar from year to year. There's not a lot of weather in the desert. It can certainly get windy from time to time. I've, I've played a wave advantage here a couple of times in the past. So definitely be sure to monitor the weather, but for the most part, uh,
Generally produces a winning score between 14 and 19 under par. The last decade, it is not ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring. It's not ranked in the top 10 in scoring. It generally falls right in the middle. And listeners of the podcast know I'm not a TPC guy at all. I don't like these types of courses. I think they serve better.
a purpose on the PGA tour, but architecturally they're a little gimmicky, a little lazy. In my opinion, there's basically a couple design templates that just get copied over and over again. But of the TPC courses, I actually think TPC Scottsdale is really damn good. I think it's really underrated as a golf course because,
I don't know how much money I would pay to play it, but I think if we're talking in the prism of does this serve the purpose of creating entertainment golf, entertaining golf at the pro level, I think for the purpose that it serves, what its intent is, it's really good. And I think it makes for really fun viewing. I think if they wanted to...
really bake out this course. It would be based on the risk reward aspect of it. I think there, you know, you'd want to look into improving the 18th hole for sure. But I think it'd be an amazing course for like a president's cup. If they wanted to really bake it out, I just, I,
I feel like there's some really fun risk reward holes that actually involve strategy here. It's not just about homogenous execution, right? There's some legitimate shot values and decisions that you have to make down the stretch, the drivable par four 17th, just a really good golf hole. That's a really good template for a drivable par four. So I know people think I'm tough on a lot of these PGA tour courses, but
But I really do enjoy TPC Scottsdale. I think they got this one right. It's a pretty damn good golf course, and it's good on TV too. And just looking at the guys who have played really well here, I think iron play is probably the easiest through line that comes to mind. And the fact that you don't necessarily have to be a great putter, right? A lot of Hideki, a lot of Brooks, a lot of Scottie.
anytime you have Kyle Stanley win, you have to assume that you can get away with a shaky putter, right? And for the most part,
This is a place where Brooks, Zander, Finau, Woodlands, Hideki, Bubba have all played very well. Scotty and like those guys drive the ball really, really well. Those are the types of guys who play well at major championships. Those are the types of guys that play well at Torrey Pines championships.
and Riviera. But what I think is kind of cool about TPC Scottsdale as well is you've got those guys who I do think possess an advantage on this course. I think this is a big time ball striking ball strikers course, but it's not necessarily eliminating the,
The Webb Simpsons, Brent Snedeker's, Chez Reavy's, Matt Kuchar's either. Like those guys would be, you know, maybe eliminated more so at a Beth Page or have a tougher time at Torrey, right?
And all those guys aren't necessarily incredible off the tee, but they're really good iron players. And, you know, I will explain why I think those guys have been able to find some success too as we get into the golf course. So let's talk about TPC Scottsdale. I mentioned the driving distance last year.
12 yards higher than tour average. Uh, but driving accuracy was just 54%, 4.2% lower than tour average and fairway width is 32.6, uh, yards wide, which is 1.8 yards shorter than tour average. Now, last year it ranked 27th out of 45 courses and strokes gained off the tee. And it generally ranks as one of the easier courses and off the tee difficulty. Um,
Now, I'll explain why that is. TPC Scottsdale is a driver-heavy course. And due to the fact that they are playing at altitude, it typically ranks every single year as one of the longest distance of average drives on the PGA Tour. In exchange, it featured the 10th out of 45 hardest fairways to hit, and it typically features...
some of the lowest driving accuracy on the PGA tour, despite featuring fairways that rank middle of the pack in terms of width. So how would I explain this? The firmness of the fairways and the fact that players are simply hitting a ton of drivers on this course, because the rough penalty and miss fairway penalty is typically rather low and
Basically means that this is a driver heavy course where hitting the fairway is not incredibly important. You just need to stay out of the big trouble here, which is the water and the desert. So I think this is a really good week to look at guys who are great drivers.
drivers of the ball who are just able to keep the ball on the planet. Right. So something I looked at this week was outside of overall off the tee play. Cause I think that's very important as well, but good drive percentage on heavy drive on driver, heavy courses, right? Who are the types of guys that with their driver, right?
Stay out of trouble. You don't need to have super elite accuracy. You don't need to have super elite distance. Right. But you think about what it's looked like over the years here. And Scotty Scheffler, Jordan Speed, John Rahm, they all finished superbly.
top sex ranking below average and driving accuracies. You don't have to hit all the fairways here. Wyndham Clark finished top 10 ranking nearly dead last in driving accuracy percentage, but 16 of the top 20 gained to the field and driving distance in 2022. So you look at it last year and it's like, okay,
distance is more important now 2022 five of the top eight lost to the field and driving accuracy eight of the top 20 lost in driving distance a little bit more balanced but still a little bit more driving distance 2021 six of the top 16 lost in driving accuracy six of the top 16 lost in driving distance so then it gets a little bit more balanced and
To me, this is a course that's pretty evenly weighted, maybe a little bit more importance of distance and accuracy, but pretty evenly weighted in terms of the importance of driving distance and driving accuracy. Now, being elite at either of those is non-essential, but I think you want to be above average at both, right? Like I would, I think at this golf course, I would rather have
somebody who is above average in distance and above average in accuracy than maybe somebody who's the longest player on tour but completely wild or somebody who's the shortest player on tour but hyper accurate i think this is a golf course where you just want to be good at both right you don't necessarily need to be super long but you don't want to be but you want to have plus distance and you don't want to completely spray it either and that's why guys like scheffler and
Brooks, Xander, Cantlay, Hideki, Rom. What do all those guys have in common?
All very solid, all solid overall drivers of the ball, overall total drivers of the ball that rank above average in both distance and accuracy. Now on approach, last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 7th out of 45 courses in approach difficulty, and it generally ranks middle of the pack 2 on the harder end in approach difficulty. Pretty tough overall approach course, and overall,
A bit different from what we've seen the last couple of weeks with Torrey Pines being so long iron centric and Pebble Beach being a couple long irons and a bunch of wedges. This golf course is very middle iron centric. Okay, so you've got close to 60% of shots over. I mean, close to 50% of shots, really about 45% of shots coming between 150 and 200 yards.
So you really, really want to focus on middle iron play here. And once again, if you look at the guys who have been the best middle iron players in this field, like I'm looking at it just right now, Xander, Hovland, Glover, Griot, Hoagie, Scotty Scheffler, Siwoo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Eric Cole, Sam Ryder,
Gary Woodland. Like a lot of these guys have already been incredible here. Like you look at the best middle iron players over kind of the past year by my numbers, it's Hideki, it's Woodland, it's Scheffler, it's Zander. Hovland weirdly hasn't been good here. We could talk about him a little bit later, but middle iron play and good overall total driving is,
The two most important things on this course, in my opinion. Okay. I'll talk about the third in a little bit. But the first two for me is you are automatically in consideration for me. If you are a great middle iron player and a good overall total driver of the golf ball. Now around the green here,
is not, this is kind of a middle of the pack in terms of greens and regulation percentage. You're getting right around the middle here. And in terms of around the green difficulty, middle of the road as well. The only thing that I would say, if you want to look at as an ancillary stat, just like we talked about with Pebble Beach,
very heavily bunkered course and some pretty tough bunkers at Scottsdale. So if you want to look a little bit at Sanse percentage by all means, but I would not say that this is a course you feel like you need to be super heavy on in terms of around the green play and kind of same deal with putting, right? This is neither a
Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Beth Page, major championship type, super low greens in regulation.
But it's far from a putting contest either. This is, even compared to Pebble Beach, compared to Sony, compared to the Amex, certainly compared to Century, this week I'm a lot lower on putting than I have been for some of these previous events, mainly because of the surface. We are going from...
poa which is the most difficult surface to put on and you could just see it it's just an eye testing right like so many of these players struggling struggling on the greens missing uh four i mean i can't maybe this was just the guys that i was tracking but tons of like weird three putts from five feet um
Another core, the type of golf court, the type of surface where if you're not a particularly good putter, it's so easy to lose your confidence and get going in the wrong direction. Like just watching Scotty today, it looked like the hole was so, so small and the hole can feel that way.
On Poe of Greens, and I would say compared to these greens here at TPC Scottsdale, totally different ballpark, right? It ranked bottom 15 in terms of putting difficulty, 25th out of 45 in putting inside 5 feet, 23rd out of 45 in putting difficulty from 5 to 15 feet.
13th easiest out of 45 courses of putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. It's a pretty easy putting course. These greens don't have a ton of undulation and this Bermuda overseed, um,
basically like carpet right so the biggest mistake we see people make in the past when they talk about and look at golf courses like this is they see Bermuda greens and they think about oh let me identify the players that are putting well on have putted well on grainy Bermuda greens in Florida and I
That is not these greens. These greens are Bermuda based greens overseeded every year with a velvet bent grass bow trivialis. So they're not really Bermuda grass greens at all. Um,
They are overseeded with a Poa trivialis, which again, not Poa either at all. What happens is the Poa blends in with the Bermuda and it creates this really great carpety feel that does a wonderful job with sustenance in the heat, right? And that's kind of why you see greens like this a lot in the desert. You see it sometimes too in Florida, depending on the month, right? Like
the players with where that is this time of year. Now we'll have a POA overseed. Innesbrook has a POA, POA overseed. Harbortown has a POA overseed. Uh, the Amex has a POA overseed, right? So you want to look at golf courses that have this POA overseed because the overseed, uh,
Takes out a lot of the grain from it. And like I mentioned, it's just kind of like carpet. They're really easy to read. There's not a whole lot of undulation on these greens to begin with. But, you know, you should not be looking at Bermuda. I mean, somebody there's no correlation here for if you putted well at Bermuda.
the Honda classic or even, you know, the Sony open or anything like that. These greens are nothing like this. I think you want to be looking at if you're going specifically, which I did in this Brooke players, American express really. And, and specifically mainly at, at this golf course. So let me actually give you some guys that have been particularly amazing on these types of greens. I'll give you the, the top,
five-ish and see if anyone pops out. Sam Ryder. Love Sam Ryder this week. Putting on these types of greens is not the only thing that Sam Ryder does well. He'll absolutely be a play for me. We played him last week at Pebble Beach, Stone Men. I think he's like middle of the pack. Sam Burns, not super surprising, right? He's won twice at the Valspar. He finished sixth at this tournament last year. He almost won the Amex. Sam Burns, love these greens.
Sam Ramey, Chad Ramey. Sorry, not Sam Ramey. We got another Sam coming up at some point. Billy Horschel.
Taylor Montgomery, Matt Kuchar, Alex Norin, Adam Hadwin. Makes sense, right? Kuchar's been good at those types of courses. Montgomery is a great putter anywhere. Billy Horschel has putted well at these types of courses. Hadwin is always super dangerous in the desert. He putts unbelievably at the Amex every year, and Alex Norin is just a great putter in general as well.
The name that is really most interesting here, and we can talk about this player a lot more when we get to the model, because his score in my model this week for this specific golf course is as high a player being in my model that I can remember in at least a year. This year, at least. But maybe there was someone like I'd have to go back and check my 2023 records of somebody rated this high.
But Scotty Scheffler's baseline jumps on these greens. Now, you can interpret data in a lot of ways. A lot of that is the fact that he has a couple good putting performances at this tournament, at this greens, which is doing a fair amount of the legwork. But that honestly also should matter because that's the golf course he's playing, right? And how else are we supposed to measure what greens he's comfortable with?
But Scotty Scheffler is like a top 20 Bermuda POA overseed putter in this field because he's putted well here before. I know he didn't putt great at the Amex this year, but he's actually putted well at the Amex in the past. He's putted well at the players before. Not even like super great this year, but again in the past.
He's putted well at Heritage before, weirdly too, but not a super high bar to clear for Scottie. But it is worth noting that on this specific green surface, Scottie has a pretty good sample size of being more comfortable raising his baseline, particularly on these greens in Phoenix. And then in terms of scoring stats, I looked a lot at,
TPC courses, right? Because this is a very specific type of architecture. TPC courses, it's a lot about like, there's a very specific goal in mind, right? For a lot of these TPC courses to provide. And of course there are some outliers on the super easy end. And then TPC sawgrass is, is kind of the outlier on the harder end. That's a little bit weirder than kind of your typical TPC course. But yeah,
You have to keep in mind with these TPC courses, they were designed with a very specific goal in mind to provide a course for professional golf tournaments where the winning score falls somewhere between 13 and 23 under par and...
Many of the par threes follow the same template. Many of them are over water. All of the par fives have a risk reward element to it, right? They're attempting to create these golf courses where low numbers are available. Guys can make a charge, but there's also enough trouble that there's some excitement that you can eject. And it's a certain style of architecture, right? Like I think about a golf course like TPC Twin Cities, right?
Pulls this off very well. TPC Scottsdale, again, in my opinion, succeeds at this the most. But a lot of these TPC courses, how successful they are at this, the architecture is a carbon copy of each other, right? Just look at some of the par fives, particularly like all these TPC courses, they do the exact same thing with their par fives and a lot of their closing par fours with like
the classic water, just look at the similarities between the closing hole at TPC river Highlands and TPC Scottsdale. And, um, I forgot one at the second par five at TPC river Islands and TPC Scottsdale and a couple of the holes at TPC, Craig ranch, TPC twin cities. It's,
There's the, it's the PGA tours designing these courses, but there's the same people commissioned to do the same thing. They have a goal, they have a template. So I think it's very valuable to look at players have to have succeeded on this type of architecture. Right. And we can brainstorm what those types of players would be. Right. It's probably the type of guys that, um,
are very aggressive, right? That keep the ball in play off the tee that do a good job of avoiding water hazards, but also, you know, go for the green and are good long arm players to reach those par fives. And to let me pull up and see, I have this rate written down to in my model. If I can give you some of the names that have actually been the best on these, um,
Scheffler, number one, not a huge shock there. JT Poston, Sungjae M, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, not super surprising, right? Hideki, Xander, Tom Kim, Jordan Spieth. A lot of the guys that have played well at this golf course are good at other TPC golf courses too. And you think about TPC Summerlin too, like it's
Talk a little bit about the comp courses too, but these desert golf courses aesthetically that are, you know, at elevation Summerlin's a TPC course where it's really scorable, but you have to keep the ball and play off the tee. Summerlin's a little bit, a lot, a bit easier than Scottsdale. And so is the American express, but both of those desert golf courses, the summit club is another one. A lot of the guys that live in Arizona are,
Typically tend to play well here. A lot of the Arizona State guys, right? It's like what Rom has been so unbelievable here. Phil here. Even just like an Arizona guy like Max Homa or a desert guy like Xander who lives in Vegas. You look at the best desert golfers. Xander, Sungjae, Adam Hadwin. Adam Hadwin just...
Absolutely. Just got to be a lock in the desert. I think he was top 10 at the Amex once again. Justin Thomas, Scotty Scheffler, Sam Burns, Tom Hoagie, Matthew Neesmith, Tom Kim with multiple wins at TBC Summerlin, right? And then guys like Johnny Vegas and Andrew Putnam and Keith Mitchell has been sneaky good. Matthias Schmidt, um,
So desert golf course is helpful as well. And then in terms of course history, I wouldn't put this as important for me compared to middle iron play and overall total driving of the ball. TPC Scottsdale, oddly enough, has the fifth most predictive course history on the PGA Tour. The only courses with more predictive course history are
Augusta, Wiley, Bay Hill, and Riviera. Now this is a course that we go to every single year. The weather is always perfect. There's rarely any wind. So it's basically like playing golf in a dome and a lot of the same guys always seem to have success here. So I think past performance really matters. I think past performance is really correlated with success. It's why, like I said, we've
60% of the winners over the last decade is the same three guys. It's really hard to do. You're not going to see any other golf courses like that. The closest comes is Augusta. Um, and, and this is a field with 156 guys to have the same three names account for 60% of the wins over the last decade. Um, now of course, uh,
There are players that can come here and win on debut to Brooks. One on his first appearance here. Brooks is also one of the top 20 golfers of all time, in my opinion, but Kyle Stanley won on his debut. That's weird. Rom won on almost one on his first appearance. Hideki almost won on his first appearance. Brandon Grace almost won on his first appearance. Um,
So, um, you could have guys break the mold, right? Like I, I don't think course history at Torrey Pines was as important as it is this week, but you know, I still thought it was pretty performant. You didn't, you had that stat. Everyone was talking about coming into Torrey Pines where we haven't had a first time winner or guy without a previous top 10, um,
in quite a while. And then Matthew Pavone, uh, not even like a typical Torrey Pines course, Vic comes in and, and steals the show. Right. So I wouldn't completely rule out some of the guys that, uh, have never played here before. Like I, I really like Akshay this week. Who's going to be a first timer, a little bit more lukewarm on Minwoo Lee, uh, who, who was also making his first appearance, uh, because of his middle iron play. But, uh,
You look at the guys that have played well here. There are certain guys that are just always awesome. Xander, for example. I think this is a great bounce back spot for Xander. Give us a good number on Xander because of the disappointment crew that
Now, who knows what could happen on Sunday? One of these guys could shoot a 61 or a 75. I have no idea, and I don't even know how much we should judge it anyway based on the weather conditions that we're going to get. But you get four big names lay a major egg. Four of the highest-owned players on the slate, four of the most expensive players on the slate.
Xander lays an egg, Homa lays an egg, Hovland lays an egg, Rory lays an egg. I watched a lot of those guys. Now, Hovland was the only one of them that I played. Xander was a pick for one of my two one and done. So I, but I, I, you know, I'm a massive Rory fan. So I was still watching Rory and, um,
I was still somehow watching a lot of Homa because he was like the highest owned guy in the slate. And I was kind of rooting for his demise a little bit. But I test wise of those four, I'm ranking Xander one, Rory two,
Homa three, big gap, Hovland, which we can talk about. But, you know, I think this is a good by low spot on Xander coming back at a course that he's been really, really good at. Homa, give us some lower ownership on him. Could be talking for sure. And then Hovland, we could talk about in a little bit as well. He just did not pass the eye test for me whatsoever.
But things can get changed in a week, right? Like the big not passing the eye test guy for me last week at Torrey was Colin. And he's been better this week. Like not contending. He's not going to win, but solid. Like he looked a lot better. Yeah.
I don't think even if I hadn't watched him play and he looked so bad, I would have played him in this spot. Um, but it's, you can definitely fix some things, uh, in a couple of days, but Tofflin has a lot of things to fix and no short game coach. So I don't know who's going to come in and fix them for them. Anyway, the point being, um, Xander's been awesome here. Hideki has been awesome here. Rom's been awesome here. Brooks, Bubba, Spieth, JT, um,
These guys just middle iron players that are great overall total drivers of the ball. They fit the mold. And one of the other things that Brooks talked about was how he loves the atmosphere here. The fans get them going. There's an energy here that you don't just see at other events and,
I think that's why this has been one of the very few courses outside of major championships that Brooks has had a lot of success at. This is obviously not a major, but there's a juice and an excitement here to hold his attention where he's
certain non majors at boring courses. And he's talked about this before. Maybe they just feel a little dull for him and it's harder for him to engage and feed off the atmosphere. But,
I don't know. It's a working theory. But like I mentioned, there are certain players that just absolutely love it here. They love the atmosphere. They feed off it. They seem to always play well. So that's why I think course history is more important just based off of course fit. But you want a guy that's proven they can get up for this atmosphere. And it's actually interesting. You look at the course history guys, and there's a lot of crossover in terms of
Guys that get up for a Ryder cup and play well in a Ryder cup or play well at major championships in the biggest stage and randomly get up for this event. Like you think about when JT's at his best, probably the Ryder cup PGA championships and here, you know, um,
Where does Xander play his best golf? Here and historically major champion, historically US Opens, right? Brooks, where does Brooks play his best golf? Here and major championships. Where does Ron play his best golf? Here and major championships. Where does Bubba play his best golf? Here and the Masters.
Right. So, you know, it's saying this is like a Ryder cup comp week, but I do think there are certain players that just love it here. They love the atmosphere. They feed off it. They seem to always play well. Those guys are probably ones you want to look in that direction this week. Like I mentioned, I think course history here could probably like the third big pillar for me this week. I think the three main things that,
I'm looking for is experience at this event, middle iron play and great total driving guys who are above average in distance and accuracy. And maybe the course fit thing is history thing is maybe a little bit less to do with how they actually fit the course and more to do with
With the fact that they just like playing in a more engaging atmosphere, you know, you've heard players talk about this a bunch when golf first came back from the pandemic. A lot of players really relish the fans and the atmosphere. And without it, it kind of felt like a practice round to some of them without the fans. Rory talked about this a bunch before, you know,
you know, maybe why we don't see Morikawa here this week. So I think the merit in looking in course history, there's just some players that play well here and year in and year out. And that has a lot to do, not just with the course fit, but also the fact that this is kind of this unique and singular tournament where there's a little bit more energy in the air. Okay. Let's take a quick break and then we'll run through the model real quick. Talk about a couple of guys I like and then get out of here.
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You can check out the article on Monday, but let me run through the top 20 guys for you. Number one, Scotty Scheffler by a landslide. If I was building a golf course for Scotty Scheffler, it would look a lot like Phoenix. Can he win this three times in a row? I'm going to go with the hot take of yes. Now, on the other hand, I think it is very much a fair statement.
to fade Scottie Scheffler every week. I've been doing it in Daily Fantasy. And it's worked out some weeks more than others, right? I mean, at the Amex, like I hammered Xander over Scottie because of the putting. And Scottie finished T17. And, you know, if you're taking on a 30% owned top-priced Scheffler...
Is a T17 what the faders want? What I want as a fader? Like, yeah, I will take a T17 from a 30% Scotty Scheffler at the highest price, right? And I don't know what he's going to finish this week at Pebble Beach. Played him in one and done. I thought it was a good 1% one and done guy, but I was full fade on him in DraftKings. He actually wasn't that over owned this week, but it feels like.
If Scotty putts terribly, his floor, even in a putting contest, is T17 right at the Amex. I think his floor raises even higher on a golf course like this that's more dependent on his specific skill set.
So, you know, I understand the concept of, Hey, I'm just going to fade a top price, top own Scotty Scheffler, because I don't believe that he can make putts enough putts to win this tournament or finish top five. And if Scotty finishes T 12 and the guy that I play at the top, whether that's Xander or Hovland or Homa or JT or whatever, um,
beats him than at lower ownership and at a lower price than I have more draft Kings equity. Like I understand that argument. Um, and I have employed it many recent weeks just based on the fact of, I don't think he can make enough pots to finish top five. And if he doesn't finish top five at this price and ownership, I am okay. Um,
I understand that logic, but it's, it's a, it's a dangerous game this week at Phoenix. I would just say that, uh, I haven't made a judgment call yet. I, I, as many listeners know, I struggle with, uh, chalk to begin with, even if it's the most obvious thing in the world, my numbers on Scotty this week are out of this fucking orbit. Um, so it's going to be, it's going to be a challenging one. Um,
Number two, Xander. Again, another great week for Xander. Now, I faded him in DraftKings last week, kind of hedged with a little one and done. Me and Brian and Kyle do this one and done together. We decided on Xander last week. He played well today. He really got him. He had a couple bad screw-up holes yesterday.
I'm hoping he does nothing on Sunday and we catch some lower ownership because this has been an insanely good golf course for Xander Shoffley. Great desert player has been, you know, Vegas guy has been unbelievable here in the past, done just about everything, but when here, I really like Xander this week. Number three, Victor Hovland.
Like I said, hand up because I kind of forgot to talk about it at the beginning. Just a big whiff on me with Hovland. You know what I should have really read into? And this was widely information that was out there. The breakup with the short game coach, I kind of overlooked it because he chipped fine at century this year, but...
He, he looked so lost out there on a number of different aspects. The short game was the worst. I think, uh, if you look at the strokes game, he's, he lost the most, uh, around the greens through three rounds. Uh, yeah, the short game has been the biggest issue for him, but he is barely positive off the tee. The irons have been really shaky. He has not been putting well either. Um,
So can Hovland get things fixed in a couple of days? Not sure how many days, especially if they finish this tournament on Monday. It's possible. We've seen it before. But from an eye test perspective, really tough stuff. Just like one of those bats, I'm sure every golf gambler can relate to this. One of those bats where...
You just watch him hit a couple shots on Thursday, and it's nothing like crazy terrible, but you just know immediately. You're like, oh, this is dead. He just doesn't have it this week. I don't care what the scorecard says. I don't care if he's a good player that has made runs in the past. I don't care if he's in position with a couple par fives coming up. I just watch a lot of golf. I can tell it's just not his week. It's just not his week, and I knew that.
early on Thursday morning with Victor Hovland. So we'll see. We'll see if I go back there. I will always, always play top five golfers in the world at low ownership if this happens to be the, you know, everyone get off Victor Hovland because even though he's not been very good at this course, but if we just think about in a vacuum, what is Victor Hovland best at?
Let's remove what we saw last week. Let's remove his prior history on this course. What Victor Hovland is the best at, what he separates himself with, is middle iron play and long and accurate driving. That, in a nutshell, is how you win at TPC Scottsdale. So I know the results haven't come to fruition yet, but like in a vacuum, Hovland should be unbelievable here. Hideki number four. I'm going to have to dig into Hideki, what I saw at Pebble, because...
Really bad at Pebble, really disappointing, but this has been an unbelievable Hideki spot over the years. He's won here multiple times. He remains a super elite iron player, a super elite middle iron player specifically. So I don't know. I'm going to have to look deeper into Hideki. Sam Ryder, number five, talked about Ryder a little bit. That's going to be a great guy.
It's going to be a great sub 7.5 K guy for me this week. Lucas Glover, number six, uh, again, going to have to look at the pebble numbers. I'm not really going to have any huge early leans this week because, um, I just need to see what happens with pebble on, uh,
Sunday, I need to see how that leader bait shakes out. I need to see if the tournament extends into Monday. But I'll just kind of give you from a course fit perspective and what I've seen through pebbles of now, who is kind of the guys on the short list. So Lucas Glover, Sam Ryder, I like his sleepers. Max Homa,
Really good golf course for Max Homa in theory. Has played well here in the past. Again, pretty ugly all around at Pebble. Big shock to many people. I was kind of off the Max Homa train this week. But yeah, we'll see. Maybe a good bounce back spot. Nine, JT Poston. He just keeps playing good golf. Justin Thomas, heavy on JT and DraftKings.
I liked a lot of what I saw how to Justin Thomas this week, and this could be the week. I think because Homa, Hovland, and Xander stunk, JT will be very highly owned and a very popular bet, and I don't know how much of a discount you're going to get on him. But to me, non-Scotty division, who makes the most sense of
Probably going to get a bettable number. Scottie's never really a bettable number, and it's hard to win three times in a row. And who is checking the most boxes on this golf course and is actually playing really good golf from a ball striking perspective and has played unbelievably well at this golf course. And when he's on is a great driver of the ball and an even better middle iron player. All signs point to JT.
Eric Cole, another good golf course for Eric Cole. I kind of worry about his driver a little bit more on this track. I thought Pebble Beach was a way better golf course than this for Eric Cole, but he's such a great middle iron player and has putted well on these types of greens before. Jordan Spieth, lukewarm on Spieth. Kind of...
Hit the ball pretty well. Didn't make a lot of putts. Kind of would get it going for a little bit and then miss a very short putt when it mattered. Very curious to see the price and ownership on Jordan Spieth. Definitely not a firm no. Not a firm yes either. Akshay, really like Akshay this week. Benny Ahn.
I know Benny on was very popular last week. I did not play any Benny on. He's playing. I think. Okay. Kind of middle of the pack. I like this golf course way more for Benny on than pebble beach. Um, Benny on might be a bet for me this week. Sam Burns playing well at pebble beach. Very live, probably the best putter in the world on these types of greens. Um, has played well here in the past six place, uh, six place finished last year. Um,
I think Sam Burns could win this event. In the short list of guys I would bet based on the number, Wyndham Clark, number 16, kind of lower for Wyndham than my numbers have been saying off to...
Check out on why Wyndham's not like one or two because of Scotty, but still very logical golf course for Wyndham Clark. May have to keep riding him at least from a daily fantasy perspective, although the 7.4 days on Wyndham Clark are going to probably end after this week. You're going to start pricing the U.S. reigning U.S. Open champion and a winner at Quail Hall, another signature event.
above Bo Hossler. I would, uh, I would hope so. Corey Conner, 17, kind of a, a good sneaky, quiet Corey Conner spot, 18, Gary Woodland, um,
Former winner. I love Gary. I'm going to play Gary this week. He's played enough golf now. I think the brain surgery stuff is in the rear view mirror. He, the ball striking look better at Torrey Pines. Great, phenomenal golf course for Gary Woodland. Probably hopefully coming in at low ownership still because of, you know, the old brain surgery concern, but Adam had one 19. That's going to be a pretty popular one. I liked him a lot at Pebble beach. He's playing pretty well.
probably price and ownership hike this week on a desert golf course. And Doug Gim, who was very good at the American or at Torrey Pines. Doug Gim was very good at Torrey Pines as well. So as it stands now,
I'm fascinated to see the Scheffler decision by people in the DraftKings community this week. I think this hasn't been... We haven't had as much of a... I'm not going to compare it to the ROM in Mexico stuff because...
they're really good players in this field. And it's not like on any given week, Xander can't outplay Sheffler or Hovland can't outplay Sheffler or JT can't outplay Sheffler or, or even speed or, or burns, whatever. Um, but on this specific golf course, um, it's just going to be an interesting one. I mean, who knows Scotty could win this tournament, come from behind in crazy wind conditions and wind pebble beach, um,
And throw everything for a loop, right? Or JT could maybe, right? And throw everything for a loop. And then, you know, I think if JT finishes like T4, everybody bets and play JT next week. And then, you know, JT, same with maybe Wyndham. Like if Wyndham finishes T4, he'll be higher price and higher own. But if Wyndham wins, nobody will play him. So the guys I like, Xander, JT,
Benny on Corey Connors, Woodland rider. Yeah. We'll stop there. Conservatively. All right. That will do it for me. Enjoy the golf. Uh, if we get it tomorrow at pebble beach, uh, best of luck with how your bets play out this weekend. Let's go wind them. Um,
Hopefully we get to see something fun tomorrow, right? Hopefully we get to see the best players in the world take on a pretty iconic golf course in crazy conditions. And if we don't, we've got an awesome week next week. And then we've got Riviera, right? We are hopping into an incredible, incredible stretch of golf. So if you want to join the team, if you want to join the best golf community, the best projections, the best ownership, the best info, the best discord,
Um, the ability to talk off with me 24 seven outside of the confines of listening to this podcast and with many other smart people as well, head on over to run pure sports, try us out for a week, uh, use that code Andy on that to get that 15% discount.
And shoot me a message in the discord. If you do sign up, um, love to chat golf with you. Uh, and we'd love to have you as part of that community that will do it for me. Have a great rest of the weekend and we will see you next time. Cheers.
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