2024 U.S. Open DraftKings Picks with Coby DuBose
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annual US Open preview with Kobe DuBose. We are breaking down the entire DraftKings slate from top to bottom. This might be the most excited I've been to record a podcast in as long as I can remember. And I think the reason for that is because, again, it might be the most that Kobe and I have disagreed on a golf tournament in our entire time doing this. I mean, just from the things that he's texting me,

I'm recording this intro before we record the podcast, so I have really no idea what to expect either, but I can't wait to break down this golf course. I've spoken to a ton of people.

that are at Pinehurst on the grounds today. Everybody has something a little bit different to say. I can't remember the last time we had such little consensus and I was hearing such different opinions from different people on how they think the golf course is going to play. I love that stuff. I think that actually creates a bigger edge in, in my opinion, because I think there's so many people that are on different pages of

Right. And, and looking at different guys and different skill sets. And if you happen to be the one that gets it right, um, you could be in store for an incredibly profitable week. Hopefully that's up. So, uh,

We're starting to get a pretty decent sense of how ownership is going to shake out. I am as fired up for this major championship as I have been in as long as I can remember. So without further ado, here is myself and Kobe DuBose breaking down the entire DraftKings slate for the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst.

All right, Kobe DuBose is here. We're already at the third major of the year. It's the US Open. It's the 124th US Open at Pinehurst, the cradle of golf, cradle with no vowels to some. I'm stressed out already. We were just talking offline. I've been talking to people at this golf course all day. I don't think there's ever been

A golf tournament in my recent memory where I've gotten such mixed opinions on the, on how the golf course is going to play such conflicting information, such a take fire sale in terms of, uh,

What people think is going to happen at this golf course and what actually matters, this golf course. And I actually feel like based on some of our texts, maybe we disagree for the first time in a while. Maybe not. I have no idea, but I I'm fired up to get into it, man. I think this is one of the most fascinating major championships for, for a myriad of reasons, historical context related golf course related, but Pinehurst baby, we're here.

Yeah, Pioneer's about an hour from where I grew up. I never really spent much time there as a kid. Have you played it? I have played it a couple of times. It's fun. It's a good golf course.

I think 2018 I played in November with one of my best friends from home. And then I played it more recently in the spring. So I've kind of seen it dormant, you know, cause it's Bermuda. So when you play it in the fall, you get the, it has a different look. It looks a little bit yellow, right? Cause you get the dormant Bermuda, even though you don't have dormant Bermuda rough like you would other places, but I've played it, digested it, thought about it a lot. One of those places where,

I can remember a lot of the holes and a lot of the shots I hit very clearly, which is cool, right? That's not every golf course that we play. So really liked it and just excited to see what the guys do with it. Yeah. Listen, we'll talk a little bit about the golf course. There's a few things that...

I want to get on the record about and dive into with you. But like I alluded to a little bit earlier, I think that there is not a consensus this week in terms of like what actually matters. I've heard takes ranging from, this is the most important skilled around the green golf course on the PGA tour to around the green. Doesn't matter at all. You can just put everything to, to,

They actually kind of approved this golf course at all. And you can, and, and it's, there's, it's a lot more hairier around the greens to, you know, players are actually just using three wood and hybrids around the greens too. You can have a tremendous advantage with distance here. If you just send it over all the stuff and take your chances to, this is the most accuracy biased us open venue in a while.

Uh, in terms of positioning off the tee over distance and, and stark contrast to other thick rough us open golf course that we've seen in the past, like wing foot and Torrey pines. So where do you land? We've, we've talked a little bit, but what are kind of the big things that you're, you're looking for this week as you put together your player pool? Sure. Yeah.

I think distance matters like it does everywhere. We should just be clear about that. Right. But one of the reasons it matters just because you're not, you know, I think this is still- He's got a massive grin on his face. Yeah. I think this is a, I think we've listened to some of the same content. I think this is a, uh,

It's still a place, a big boy golf course, where hitting it long and straight plays everywhere, but I think it's important here. There's a lot of just meaty par threes where guys who aren't having to pull off head covers to launch these greens are going to have a big edge. I don't know that it's a place that you just take reckless abandon off the tee and just bomb it away. I do think there are spots where aggression off the tee is rewarded. That's the interesting thing about Pinehurst is that

different holes require and demand different things so i don't think it's an oak hill where you can rory decides on friday he's just going to hit driver everywhere right that's not pinehurst and you can't also decide to to back it down everywhere either because you know you're going to have to sort of figure it out hole by hole i think i have kind of some thoughts around the greens i i

When I played it and when I've seen it and I've watched a lot – I've gone back and watched a lot of Pinehurst content. I've gone back and watched 14. I've watched a lot of people play Pinehurst on YouTube. Just, you know, you see where balls deflect and where misses go. The one thing I would say, I think you end up with less short grass shots around the green than you would think. Like if you compare it to, let's say, Augusta, where I think balls end up in Augusta in short grass a lot because –

I think Augusta greens don't deflect balls into bunkers quite as much. Bunkers aren't quite as prominent at Augusta. Even if, you know, the holes where they are prominent, they're sort of directly in front of the green, you know, and, and things of that nature. I think at Pinehurst, when you miss everything funnels, because the bunkers are massive and I think everything around the green funnels into these bunkers. And then if it doesn't funnel into bunkers, a lot of times it,

It scruffs off just like, you know, in the fairways when you get into the waste area and the wiregrass. That happens a lot around the greens. So it's one of these places where you are going to get some of these, you know, shots out of the hollows on short grass. But I think bunker play is very important too, particularly around the green bunker play and kind of scrambling out of weird areas. So to me, that de-emphasizes –

chipping a bit, right? Not entirely. But I think when people want to look at Augusta and talk about kind of the Augusta comp with short grass,

The one reason that, like I said, it's a little different is because I think Augusta, you're going to end up on short grass more often, right? Because you think about it, like when do you really see balls at Augusta deflect off into bunkers? It doesn't happen. Like people hit it into bunkers. Rarely, yeah. Yeah, right. I mean, you don't see somebody on, you know, on number nine hit one. When people spin it back off number nine, they're not spinning it into bunkers, right? They're spinning it back down the hill at Augusta. Pinehurst is a little bit different than that. So I think...

Short game is still important. Length is still important, but you kind of need to do everything well here. I think the one skill that you really have to have is precision with long irons and precision in terms of distance control and, you know, the ability to hit it to 20 or 25 feet consistently with a four iron or five iron in your hand or six iron, you know, from 198 yards. And if you can consistently do that, I think you can play well enough to compete here.

Yeah. And, you know, for the record, I think this is a pretty polarizing golf course. Like I mentioned, just in terms of some of the things I've heard it, the way people are breaking it down. And, you know, I also want to be very, very clear. Like if Kobe or I disagree with.

take on the golf course or how somebody else thinks this golf course is going to play doesn't mean that we think you're stupid or or anything like that or we disrespect your opinion we could be the ones that are wrong 100% I

I, this is like kind of the one thing in my life where I, I know that I'm really good at, but at the same time, I get things wrong about golf courses sometimes too. Um, and there are many ways to skin a cat right there. You can, you can look at different things in the way that you break down a golf course and still actually get to a similar result. So I, you know, I, I, I'm, I'm not like,

against or throwing shade at some of the takes that are flying out there about Pinehurst. To be honest with you, I'm

I'm, I'm, I'm open to, I'm open to being wrong about some things that I had initially thought and have more talking to people there over the course of the next two days to do. Um, I think one of the things that's been challenging for me is like, you know, the podcasts are one thing, right. But I think like I've spoken to people that have spent time watching golf today at Pinehurst and

And they view the golf course like wildly differently. And, you know, I think it's a testament to Pinehurst, right? Like, I think that's exactly what you want. I think that's a testament to the golf course. I think that you are going to see players like to go back to the

The, and we'll talk a little bit about short game, I guess, but I, I really want to spend most of our time breaking down the slate. Cause I've, I've spent a lot of time on the golf course already and we'll do that more in, in, in further shows and the discord and all that stuff. But the point being is.

I think there's going to be players that miss a bunch of fairways and get lucky and have an amazing week. And I also think that we're going to see a Brant Snedeker or a Brendan Todd very close to the top of the leaderboard as well. And I think that we are going to see somebody like Martin Keimer that came into that US Open

I think the way that he putted was a bit of a red herring and a little bit anomalous in terms of like that necessarily being the optimal strategy. But I think that we are going to see a putter that has really bad lead in around the green stats.

like really figure out how to use a hybrid around the green and just be freaking nasty. And like, there's no way that you can model that out whatsoever, unless you're there. That's why I'm spending so much time talking to people that are there and really figuring out what people are doing. And I also think that you're going to see a player like,

I don't know who are the best around the green players, just in terms of like what we think, like Cam Smith, Sheffler, Hideki, Spieth, maybe one of those guys is going to be at the top of the leaderboard as well. That just has all of the shots and is just able to be that one in 10 that actually has the touch to get it up and down when they get short-sighted. Yeah. I think one of the questions that we have this week is how the thing about Pinehurst is, um,

It might play wide. It might play narrow, right? A lot of that depends on how firm it is, you know, and I know we

We've seen some quotes out of guys like Wyndham Clark today. I said the greens are getting a little borderline, which is incredible. Give me all. I bet I'm going to miss the cut. It's the Jack Nicklaus quote. It's like, you know who you can eliminate. Yeah. You know who you can eliminate right off the bat. It's the guys who are complaining about the golf course. I'm talking to people there all day. The greens are fine, Wyndham. Like they're perfect. Well, they're tough for him because he's not playing good right now. And I think all greens are tough for him.

But if it plays super firm, which I think it's going to play pretty firm, those very wide fairways are not quite so wide anymore. And those are some of the questions that we have that we can kind of guess that. We thought...

LACC was going to play mega firm. And then of course we get some Marine layer nonsense. We don't have that many variables here given a Pinehurst East coast, you know, kind of firm Bermuda U S open, but you know, we're kind of guessing on how firm it's going to play actually in the tournament. We're going to have to guess at what the USGA is going to do and how much water they're going to put on the golf course and things of that nature.

You know, so those are things that we can't exactly answer, but we can make some educated guesses when we can get some information from the ground. Right. And and that's going to be important because I think Pinehurst is the kind of golf course they can play very different depending on how it's set up and how it's well, how it's conditioned.

I really hope that the USGA doesn't roll over and listen to people like Wyndham. You know, he's the defending US Open champion. But, you know, from what I've heard, like they got rain last night and the golf course was super bouncy. I think one of the changes...

One of the key changes I've talked a lot about is the Champion Bermuda, which is a lot more of a consistent and controllable surface. They have a lot more control over Champion Bermuda. It's a grass that works better in this climate. It can firm up very quickly and it stays pretty consistent throughout the day. You saw at...

Pinehurst and, and the wind's going to be very consistent, right? So I, I don't think we're going to see much of a, a true wave advantage this week, but you know, in the past, if, if you looked at it, like towards the end of the day at Pinehurst, when the greens got really burnt out, that made things really, really tough for people. And, and Bermuda is going to create a more, uh,

It's going to create more consistent green speeds throughout the entirety of the day. You know, I was, it's so interesting and I suppose this can translate us into talking about Scheffler and the top of the board, but I was talking to somebody today.

one of my friends in the corrupt golf media that was walking inside the ropes with Bryson and she was talking to Bryson a little bit and you can interpret this however way you want in terms of like whether this is a pro Bryson or an anti Bryson take but she's telling me bright and she agreed with this based on what she was seeing as well but Bryson's like it's just really random it's really it's really random out there I

And she said after, she said, you know what? I know everybody's penciling in Scheffler here. I'm kind of getting like Brian Harmon at the open vibes. Like I kind of get the sense that something really strange and off the board is going to happen. And that always does, in fairness, happen at Pinehurst. Like there's something about Pinehurst where...

There's always a very strange, it's a lot of amazing players, right? Like you go back to the 99 us open and it's tiger and pain Stewart and bill, right. And, and,

You have all these great players that have played well at, at Pinehurst, but there's always a random strange name in there. And I think a lot of that is because like, there's going to be a guy that sends it off the tee and misses a lot of fairways. And you're watching on Friday, like,

Man, this guy hit it 30 yards off the fairway and he's not in a plant again. And then this guy that just missed off the fairway by two yards is totally boned. Like how does this happen? And

You can't keep getting away with this. You can't keep getting away with this. And it's fascinating and kind of a nightmare for the hashtag data boys like me, but it's fun. It's fun. It's really, really fun stuff. I'm excited. I'm excited to see how it plays out.

Yeah, me too. And I'll say one more thing on the golf course. I think we hear a lot. I would caution people. We talk about the greens. I keep hearing about these Donald Ross greens. They're not Donald Ross greens. Have you ever played Donald Ross courses? They don't even... Ross courses are relatively simple. They have these back-to-front sloping greens that are relatively consistent and they're very classic. And I mean, if you've...

read any of the history of Pinehurst, these greens aren't even what Donald Ross did. They've been shaped over time, and that's okay. These aren't Donald Ross greens like you see at the 7,000 courses he built around the country. They're shaped by

and nature combined with just the maintenance over time. And then they'll core. Yeah, well, sure. And those guys do. Right. And they even said, I think I listened to Bill core say they couldn't figure out what Ross's greens would have been like. So they didn't, cause they wanted to restore these greens back to what Ross would have done. And they couldn't figure out exactly what they looked like when Ross did them. So they left them at this, but acknowledging that, um,

While this course is Donald Ross's, these greens aren't really what he built. And that's okay. They're just so fundamental to the Pinehurst identity that they didn't want to change it, which, you know, good choice, right? You're not going to go change it to something that you don't know. But, you know, I don't think looking at sort of Ross courses, this course could not be more different from Pinehurst.

you know, Detroit or even I keep hearing such field, right? You think of this, it could not be more different than such fields could be more different than no kill. I mean, sure, exactly. Right. And so I don't, I don't know that Ross stuff is helpful. Um, you know, and we can kind of delve into some of the court's history stuff, but,

People that are kind of trying to play those sorts of angles, what we're getting at, I think, is that Pinehurst is sort of a... Listen, I don't think any PGA Tour golf course is relevant. Well, that's right. I like Congaree. Yeah, I like Congaree, but... Sure. Pinehurst is kind of a singular golf experience. It's a little bit different. It's like when we go to some of the courses in the open road. What do you look at from your field? You don't, right? I mean, Carnoustie kind of lives in its own world, and that produces...

what you're talking about, which are the wild takes that are all over the place because people are just trying to find an angle. So let's talk about Scotty. So 13 K I've got him. It's early Monday night, recording this on Monday night. I think there's a chance he nears 50. I don't think he's going to get much over 50 and we're talking, you know, big contests. Okay. $5, $15 million maker.

whatever have you. I think there's a, I think he's probably in the 50 zone, which I think is the highest. I think that's probably the highest known player we've ever seen at major championship. I'm sure there's some way to effort that and find historical data, but yeah. Yeah. It sounds right to me. Um, the only thing I would say, um,

It's a little bit challenging in this field because the 5,000s exist, but they are a little bit, I wouldn't say ugly. I mean, we know who these guys are, but are people really lining up to play Sung Kang and Stu Haggis? But there's wild misprices in the 6,000. Oh, I get it. The 6,000. Sep Straka could be 15%.

Agree with that. You're going to see a lot of very similar builds. I think it's pretty easy to jam Scheffler, you know, because in here we've talked about this before. I think part of why Scheffler is a pretty easy click in terms of lineup construction has more to do with kind of the deterioration of the mid golfer. Like, are we really rushing to want to play Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, you know,

really even Justin Thomas at this point. I'll go a step further. Are we really rushing to play like Rahm? Sure, I agree with that. Or Will Zalatorre. Anybody feeling like they got to have Jordan's beat this week? Like you can miss, there's just this $8,000 range. Like, okay, Max Holman, a major. Do I have to have him? No. So I think it's pretty easy to go Scheffler. And then a lot of people thinking, well, you know,

What's the difference in, in Ben on and cam young, right? Like, why do I, why do I. Yeah. The key piece also that you need to add, sorry to interject here, but Colin's going to be Colin is going to be wildly. Colin is, I think a lot of people think wildly mispriced.

and he's the third favorite and he's 9,400 and Colin's going to be the second highest known player on the slate. And a Scotty Colin build is not difficult. It is not difficult. And that is the most common bill. Yes. Right. I mean, and there you go. There's your core. And then people think to themselves, well, I'll, I'll find, I'll find some other stuff. Right. Which is that's, you know, that's fine. I see it. I see the line there. I mean, I, you're going to be playing Kino and trying to,

you know, sharing your winnings with 172 other people if you're in the Millie maker, but

I think Scotty at $13,000, 50% sounds about right. I think in the Mega Millie, which is the $3,300 this week, I believe, he'll probably touch 60 or 65 in that contest. Yeah, wow. It's just insane. It's hard. I mean, I don't... This is part of the reason that you and I, when we have these conversations about Scheffler, part of my Scheffler contrarian stance just has to do with

That's the nature of these bigger contests that I plan. There's so much opportunity. I mean, you could get killed over and over and over as we've seen, you know, trying to fade Scotty Shuffler, but you're almost your, your path to victory is just so easy and clear. Um,

When you got a 65 or 70% on Scotty Shuffler. Yeah. You could also, he could also win and you could also trade him and win, which I've done before. Yeah. Yeah. My best two of my three best weeks of the season were when he finished second in Houston and when he won the heritage, when I played 0% Shuffler and I've also, I've also locked Shuffler and won nothing. Yeah.

My second best year or event of my career was the math, the masters that he won when I had Rory and 0% Sheffler at 0% Sheffler. And I, I mean, I was one Justin Thomas non streak on the back nine that Sunday away from winning the million without Sheffler. And I mean, that's insane, right? I don't think I didn't have Cam Smith either, which is crazy because he was all over that leaderboard. But at any rate,

So you're out? You're playing 0% Shuffler? I haven't made that call yet. I don't know that I'm masked entering this week, which I don't tend to do during major weeks. When we get these mega millies, I tend to consolidate and play. You do the $3,000 entry.

Yeah. I'll play seven or eight lineups in that versus maxing the little one. I mean, if I was playing 150 lineups. Yeah. Talk about, talk about, talk about what no one's doing that. That's listening to this podcast. Yeah. No, I get it. If, and if I was playing 150, you know me, I'm pretty aggressive anyway. So when I fade him, I think about it. Um, but I'm much more likely to play him if I'm playing 150 lineups or if I'm playing 50 lineups in the smaller contest, $5 contest, um,

I might have some Sheffler lineups just to, but I would certainly get super different everywhere else. Right. If I was ever going to bite that bullet and you and I have had this, we've had an ongoing text debate and look as the like resident Sheffler hater in general, just like as a person. Yeah. I'm not a fan of him either. Like I want to be made a lab, right. He's, he's a mass produced Highland park, Dallas, uh,

nice guy golfer who was made in the lab to be good at golf. I get sick of seeing stories about how his mom made such great sacrifices to help him join the nicest golf club in Dallas or whatever. Yeah. I think it's wrong. His mom is actually the

managing partner of some massive Dallas law firm. So her sacrifices that she used her home equity to buy him an initiation so he could be trained by the best people. It's like Zalator's dad's like the biggest real estate developer in Dallas.

Right. It's like Peter Uline, a real highland park kids. Seriously. And I look and I don't fault anybody. It's not your fault. Like, you know what? Like if you've got the resources, awesome and good for him for making something of it. But don't tell me that you are a rags to riches story.

This is not, you know, Tony Finau's dad having him hit balls into a mattress. So don't piss on my, you know, face and tell me that it's raining. Is that the phrase? Regardless, don't piss on my face at all. Something like that. Yeah. Something like that. So I'm not a Shepard guy personally, but I will say I did play him last week. I bet. Yeah.

We'll talk later about the case for Rory. I'm sure I will. But I have a Scheffler Memorial Rory US Open double, right? So I have hopped off the sort of personal hatred, keeping me from betting him, Vendetta, which I was a little bit on. But

I'd say the reasons that you fade him this week, if you are, you know, if you want to take that leap, starting with just the ownership, you know, just being kind of out of hand that you have so much to gain if he doesn't have his best week. I mean, I'd say the US Open has not been his best event, right? We've not – and I know he finished third last year. I get it. But it was a bit of a non-competitive third event.

I mean, I mean that, right. He got buried on Sunday, played with Rory. He got dropped from coverage. Like we, last year we were watching Ricky evaporate himself. We were watching Xander never make a run. And then, and we watched Wyndham Clark. That was like the toughest golf loss of my entire life. I could give you every hole at LACC. No, I get it. And right. But Scott, he wasn't, he was not a part of the story on that Sunday. Now he buried two holes late.

to get to seven under, but he was out of it where they were kind of dropping it from coverage. And that's with a hole out Eagle on 17 on Saturday that even got him. It was like, he was forgotten about on Saturday and then he holds out on 17 and it was like, Oh shit, he could actually do this. But you know, in terms of Sheffler, we know how high his floor is, but this is a place where,

My biggest fear if you're going to fade Scheffler is that he could just absolutely hit way more fairways than everybody else when other people are playing out of trouble and he's not. And that that's a real danger. But I do, I have less confidence in his sort of long-term Bermuda putting form. I think there's a world in which he looks very lost with the putter at this golf course. I also, he's,

He's the kind of guy occasionally when he gets on these sort of modern courses with tough greens and sort of anything different, you can see him get frustrated and get a little slumpy shoulder. We saw him at colonial where he, he, you know, pissed off about the greens. So I'm at St. Andrews where I've never seen somebody with worse body language playing that golf course. I don't know that Scotty Shuffler loves these sort of modern tests. I think he's,

He's kind of an unbelievable PGA Tour golfer, and his game sets up well for modern golf, clearly. But I don't know that it's what he loves. He feels to me like a guy who would be bitching about these golf courses if it didn't hurt his brand. So how do you explain it? How do you explain Augusta? Because Augusta is like the most cerebral, nuanced golf course out there.

I get that. I will say, I don't know how much we believe in caddies. Like the question of whether Ted Scott is guiding him magically around that place. Like he has the big, I mean, Bubba Watson's a fucking idiot. By the way, by the way, reports from the grounds is that Ted is already out there grinding.

I think that Scotty's going to have a big brain edge this week. And I don't think it's because he is Albert Einstein. I can agree. And he always does have a big brain. I think that Scotty Scheffler is kind of a big, dumb dope. I mean, look, guys who are big brainiacs don't sit around having naked Bible studies with other buddies or whatever the hell they do. This is like the podcast that thousands of people listen to. You got to save this for like the premium show.

He's not a MENSA candidate, okay? He's just a guy. But I think Ted Scott gives him an edge. And I think Scottie understands. He's almost like an idiot savant on the golf course. He understands innately how to play the game of golf. But Augusta is sort of the thing that keeps me – it's the thing that sticks in your mind, right, about him. There's some reasons why you think he wouldn't play well here, but then he dominates Augusta.

And so you have to ask yourself, how similar is Augusta and Pinehurst? And they're not, except in some ways they are. So it's a tricky thing this week with Scottie. But I don't hate anybody fading. Do you envision a non-competitive T17 out of him? Do you think that's in play? Is it in play? Yes. Do I envision it? No. Could I see him...

Finishing T8, T10, sure. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility. I think his floor is so high. I've said this before a million times. Anybody who's listened to us knows exactly what's about to come out of my mouth. The miscut equity is so small.

We say that though. And then I watched him last year, the open championship at yet another kind of weird golf course that just throws different things at you. And he needed to get up and down from a really terrible spot in the bunker to make the cut. And this is after, I mean, he has dominated and won a lot of huge golf tournaments last year and won a bunch of them. And, you know, I know the putter wasn't great, but there are times when he gets a little bit off schedule places. He hasn't really seen before, uh,

And he can wilt, right? Now, this may be a different version of Scottie, a better version of Scottie at this moment. So that's why I think his miscut equity is not zero, but it's much lower than a lot of guys that we've seen at the top of their game, which is why fading him is tough because there's not a lot to gain because he's going to be there kind of knocking around even if he plays poorly.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, listen, I think that you think about like what would have to go wrong for Scotty. And I was pretty locked in last week. I like to watch, not only do I like Memorial, but I also like to really get a sense of where everyone's games at before the majors. And the thing, the problem with Scotty is that

First of all, he just has so many outs. Okay. Like there's so many, and I've said this many times, it is very golf course dependent for me. So like, I think that there are generational opportunities to fade a 50% on Scotty Scheffler coming up, right? Like I'm probably gonna have 0% of him at the travelers. I had 0% of him at Valhalla.

I'm really not, really not sold on him at opens yet, but a lot of this is golf course dependent for me. Right. And I think a good example is Mirafield village last week. What happened? We were both really high. I said the same things about, you know, why Mirafield village is a great golf course for him. I said, it's like probably the third best golf course for his skillset on tour. But so you, you go and look at like statistically on data golf, like what's the toughest thing

What are the toughest golf courses in certain stack categories? And Muirfield Village is the toughest golf course in approach. There's another example of this at Augusta, where Augusta is the toughest golf course around the green. And

Mirafield village being the toughest golf course and approach. And, and we may, we may differ on this a little bit. Cause you brought up the Augusta putting thing, which is a whole other, I could do like three hours on, on that. That's a whole other podcast, but yeah,

In my opinion, statistically, based on all the data that I look at and all my time looking and breaking down golf courses, skill separates, right? Skill separates. And so Scottish Shuffler has gained 25 strokes on approach at Mirafield Village in the last two years. And the reason that he was able to do that is because what makes Mirafield Village a difficult approach course? Well, there's two reasons to it. First of all,

It's really long. So you're hitting long irons a lot of the time. Okay. So what happens when you have long irons a lot of the time, you're going to get a wider dispersion pattern, right? So guys are going to be hitting anywhere from 15 feet to missing the green by 20 yards. So wider dispersion pattern that makes it difficult.

And the other aspect is that the greens are really firm and small, and Muirfield Village itself is pretty damn tough around the greens too. So if you miss an iron shot, if you're marginally off by an iron shot, you're not remotely guaranteed a par, right? Like you could be in a really, really tough spot, and you could be making bogey or double. We saw it time and time again at Muirfield Village, right? And like the inverse of this is like,

Scotty's never going to be able to gain. Scotty would have to like hole out from the fairway multiple times to gain 13 strokes on approach at Valhalla. Right. Because it's, there's no way to separate like the dispersion patterns. Like if you think about how strokes gained is calculated, it's like how you gain strokes on the field. So if you hit a bad iron shot at Valhalla, so easy to get up and down for, this is like very inside baseball. I'm not getting into all that. I promise I'm going to land the plane here in a second. The point is,

that Pinehurst has the potential, in my opinion, to be the most difficult approach course on tour, right? Because I think that, and we could talk about the whole aggression thing too, that's such another interesting argument. I wish this podcast could go on six hours, but it can't. There's going to be like really massive numbers from missed long iron shots at Pinehurst. And there's going to be a lot of missed greens,

And you're going to be hitting a lot of long irons, okay, to firm, small targets. And when you have this, there are just so many other ways for people that aren't as good at Scotty Scheffler to screw up.

and ways for him to separate. And that's why at Muirfield Village, it's not a coincidence, guys. I study data all day. It's not a coincidence that that's the golf course that he's gaining 25 strokes on an approach and having his best to approach performances of his life. It's not a coincidence that Scottie is gaining 25

six and a half strokes around the green at Augusta national when there's a wider dispersion pattern in terms of what numbers you can make from bat around the green shots at Augusta national on a low greens and regulation percentage. And from a golf course perspective, Kobe, I don't even want to get into the driving because I can't be that long winded on this and just do a Scotty party. I just would argue from a data perspective, there is not a better golf course that Scotty will play all season.

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That's BlueNile.com. Okay. That's the, what's the meme about? I ain't reading all that. Happy for you or sorry that happened. What do you want me to say, right? I'm not going to sit here and argue with you about this golf course. On paper, I think it suits him.

Like I said, I think he's going to hit a lot of fairways. And I think we're going to run into a situation that if he does end up in short grass, he's obviously well-equipped. Within his DNA as a player, though, is some long-term bad Bermuda putting form. I think you talked about that. Sure.

You have to ask yourself a question of whether that's been truly excised out of his range of outcomes or not. Clearly, it's in the range of outcomes, but how likely is that to emerge? Combined with, I think the US Open will tend to produce, it's a dichotomy because it's going to produce more randomness than a typical tour stop just because of the nature. The misses can be punished in such a way that

that you could make very large numbers without- Yeah, that's better for Scotty though. Well, I agree with that, right? Because it allows skill to separate. But there's also, as you say, and you're not wrong about that, but it also creates pitfalls where you can make very large numbers and potentially-

put yourself out of this tournament. And the reason I raised that is like Scotty did at the Memorial on Saturday where it made triple and then was back. Yeah, I get that. Yeah. Like I said, I had, I had money on him at Memorial. But I think the,

when you're talking about whether or not to play or fade a guy who's going to come in at 50 or 60 or 65% or whatever, taking into account the sort of wide varied outcomes that a particular tournament can produce. And I think the open championship is the king of this, right? Producing a wider variety of outcomes. So you want to fade a high on golfer more there, right? Cause there's just more variance. The U S open, I think is, is behind the open championship in terms of variance, but I think it,

While this golf course you would think would tend to exacerbate skill, as we talked about, this is also a place where the Eric Comptons of the world somehow managed to compete, which raises the questions of how the hell does some of that happen, right? Oh, yeah. I agree. I agree. And I know how some of it happens is because the missed fairway is not evenly dispersed. There's a lot of luck out there, as Bryson said today. It's a bit of a guessing game.

Yeah. So who's next on the list? Well, the only thing that I just to put a bow on that point too, is that,

There's a better off the tee golf course for Sheffler than Augusta because Augusta is more space and more distance biased. And the thing is, it's like, well, okay, so one strategy is saying, okay, there's variability off the tee. You could send it and be completely fine and you could miss a fairway short and be completely boned. Let me just take bombers.

And it's like, well, the counterpoint to that is like, well, there's only variability if you miss the fairway. So what's the number one thing that you should focus on is find the guys that just hit the most fairways at the highest rate and are the longest off the tee because you want to have as many shorter clubs in on approach.

And if you combine distance and accuracy, Scheffler's the number one driver of the ball in the field. He's not the longest driver. He's not the straightest driver. But when you combine overall distance and overall accuracy, he's the best driver of the ball in the field. It's the old Paul Casey skill set on steroids, right? Yeah. I'm not accusing Scotty of being on steroids. But before the Twitter people come after me. But it is. It's that same skill set. It's the guy who hits it kind of...

you know, I joke with you about Scotty Shuffler not having 180 ball speed and he's not that long. Like if you watch the US seven last year, he's pretty long, man. He's okay. Okay. Compared to the, the guys though, the long dudes. Yeah. Those guys dust him, particularly on these firm golf courses. I mean, you'll see if they get

they get paired together. Rory's hitting at 25, right? But that doesn't matter if he's hitting, you know, 20% more. He's hitting four more. We saw how that pairing worked out at the masters on a tough course. I get it. I totally, I don't disagree with you. So, you know, at any rate.

Um, so here's the thing we've done 40 minutes and talked about one golfer in the golf course. It's been really good stuff. I think the Scotty conversation is like the most important thing on, on the topic of most people's minds, but here's what I'm going to suggest. People get triggered when we talk about Rory. So I actually proposed that we go down the board and talk about the other ranges and then do Rory at the end. If you're okay with that. I don't want anyone playing Rory this week. I'll be the only one that has him. So nevermind. Don't play.

We'll move on. I want to talk about him. It's not a Kobe and Andy podcast without talking about Rory at a major at the end, but let's go farther down. Okay. Let's break it down this way. Nine K and above. Like who's your favorite non Rory Scheffler play and who's most likely to miss the cut. God, I just hate this.

I hate this range because the guys you want to play are so high on. I'm not playing poofy slice man Morikawa. Like I know he's playing. I'm not playing Morikawa either. I think that's a lot of ownership, but that's a tough fade to me, man. Like I think he's, I think he should be way higher price than John Rom right now.

No, I get it. I mean, look, long-term major performances, Shoney's kind of a guy who can get it done there. You know, what, five top tens in his last six? The iron play has been immaculate. He's been really good off the tee. Like, I don't really know where this came from because he did not look good leading into the Masters and then kind of found something.

But I think Morikawa is a wide outcomes player. And if you give me a wide outcomes player at high ownership, I love the downside that he brings to this tournament.

Terrible on Bermuda, I should add. He won the concession, which I actually think is a really good comp course in fairness. But outside of winning concession, he actually really does lower his baseline on Bermuda grass, like pure Bermuda grass, not over-seeded Bermuda. But compared to- I think there's a lot of upside in fading Morikawa in a tournament where it's easy to miscut. Yeah, yeah. I'm taking him on too. I'm taking him on too. You know, I think-

I think I probably at these ownership numbers, I probably like Hovland and or Brooks, depending on where you think Brooks lands with ownership. I am happy to fade Brooks given his current form. If I sense that he's getting up 15, 16, 18, if he's more like 10, 12, I'll bite. And I like Hovland, the combination. I think kind of a,

it was nice that he fell apart at the Memorial just for his ownership, but you want to talk about good form. We're looking at,

I mean, he's gained 11 strokes on approach in the last two events. The off-the-tee stuff looks good. Around the green is obviously the huge, scary concern here. And, you know, that's a real concern. Now, if you believe that you can putt the ball from around the greens and things of that nature, then that gives you more faith and confidence in Hovland. But, you know, he's a guy who can hit long irons well and high and can do all those things. The question is, will he eject himself around?

around the greens. And that's why you're going to get an ownership discount on them, right? Those two things go together.

Um, I I'll keep it. I'll make it easy because I'm going to have a, a ton of Shaffer. I don't think I'm going to lock up. I think I'm going to lock a player at the U S open, but I think Shaffer maybe an 80% of my lineups. Um, and my Shaffer lineups are not going to play anybody in the tens or the nines. Um, I'll run through them quickly. My best bet to, um,

be really underwhelming this week, taking out can't lay and Wyndham. I don't like Wyndham at all this week. I just don't think he's playing well. He hasn't hit an iron. He hasn't had a good iron week and like two and a half months.

as much as I want to love can't lay, I think this might just be like the JT 2023 year from can't lay where we think it is going to keep happening. And then it doesn't. And by the way, I still, I'm not even ready to go that far because I do think there's going to be great opportunities to play. Can't lay down the stretch on back grass golf courses. Um,

I'm not playing him on a USGA setup on champion Bermuda. Like he's been terrible on Bermuda compared to bat and he is not driving the ball. Well at all right now, I understand the low ownership. Colin, we already talked about just really highly owned. You have to make some tough cuts.

Ludwig and Hovland. Um, I probably like Hovland a little bit more than Ludwig. I don't like players on a USGA set up their first time ever. And he didn't drive the ball well at Memorial. I think if Ludwig contends at this tournament, he needs to be driving the ball amazingly. Well, the biggest thing that killed him at the masters was he was really bad around the greens. I just USGA set up first time. What a nuance. No, thank you for me. Um,

Rory will get to later Brooks. I love Brooks. I'm playing a hundred percent. I think he's a perfect, perfect, perfect golf course for Brooks. I think he's the second most likely player to win this tournament outside of Sheffler in my non Sheffler lineups. Brooks will be my anchor and I will have a few Sheffler Brooks lineups. Um, my guy that I think is really disappointing. And then I'm going to let you briefly give your take on the two left guys and Rom and Bryson, um,

I think we're very, very due for a non-competitive T37 from Xander.

And listen, all these guys are freaking amazing. I would love to play all of them if I could. That's not how I play the game. Okay. It's, it's tougher. You got to make some really difficult cuts. His irons look really, really bad at the Memorial. And the only reason why he sniffed the top 10 was because he finished because he gained eight strokes putting right. So it's ballsy. I don't think Xander has a lot of miscut equity. He's finished top 15 and like six us opens in a row.

um, his floor is really, really high outside of chef or maybe the highest floor in golf, but I don't think he's going to pay off his price tag this week. Yeah. He's very high prices coming off his first major win. So that would be my big, big disappointment is I, I just, I got no room for Xander anywhere near my pool this week. Well, it's an easier fade when he's what the third highest price guy on the board, right? When he's normally coming in at

10 000 and he's the fifth or sixth highest price guy it's it's a lot harder but at 11 5

I think it's easy to fade him in. 11-5 and probably pretty high ownership, frankly. I don't see any good reason to play Xander, but I'm with you on that. What about Bryson and Rahm? You give me your quick takes on them. It's really tough. I think Bryson's really polarizing on this golf course. I think a lot of people don't like him on this golf course. I think there's really good reasons to not like him on this golf course. Then Rahm,

you know, well, Bryson is priced up really high. I mean, this is a Bryson was intriguing, you know, when the price tag was gave you some salary relief and when he's kind of,

you know, coming in under the radar and things of that nature. I don't love him at this price ownership combo. That's just, I don't get there. I don't necessarily hate him on this golf course. I think there's a world in which he figures it out. And I think he's obviously playing good golf. Rom to me is super interesting and,

Given his sort of ownership and price point. I mean, that long-term upside, he's been wonderful on. It could be like 4%, dude. Seriously. Oh, I easily, I probably will be a particularly in higher stakes. I'll be lower than that in his long-term sort of firm golf course form. Really strong. Yeah. We've seen him win in these crispy memorials, right? Where nobody else is under par. He's the only one who can play the golf course. And, and,

You know, we've seen him win at tough places, Olympia Fields, things like that. So, Rahm interests me. I mean, the injury –

i don't i was in houston this week i'm i'm in kiowa now but um you know i played golf on saturday sunday i played sunday i mean it was like 108 heat index when we got off the golf course it was not a pretty sight like it was one of those heat where your body begins to hurt like your muscles don't have any electrolytes left and they're just kind of leaving your body um

Uh, and he walked what four rounds this week in this horrible heat. I don't know if that withdrawal was, I'm actually hurt or whether I think it's stupid to be playing golf in Houston the week before the U S open, which it was right. And I think there's a real there to me. There's, there's, I've, I've like softened on live a lot. Like I never really bash live anymore. I think it was the dumbest event they've ever put on.

It's so stupid. If you, if you consider schedule golf course, where they played it, what they went up against time of year, I think it's the stupidest golf event they ever put on. Well, in golf club Houston redstone, as we call it, I mean, I've played that golf course 50 times. I mean, it's public. It's you can get it on golf now for 60 bucks or whatever. And it's, it's a fun golf course, go out and take a cart and, you know, have a nice time. But it,

It has nothing. It doesn't look like Pinehurst at all. Right. It's your kind of just a weird, like plays in a swamp. It is wall-to-wall Bermuda, but the greens are super flat and not interesting at all. And it just is about as plain Jane and the PGA tour used to play there like in fairness, but that's why the event sucked. It was a bad golf course still is. So it didn't prepare them at all for this, but you know,

It's just the toll that it would take on your body to play golf in Houston this weekend, all weekend. I mean, legitimately, like I know they're professional athletes, but they're not immune. Professional athletes don't typically play any sport in 100 degree weather and 108 heat index. They just don't. There's a reason Houston has a dome on its football stadium in Houston.

It's baseball stadium because that's not like livable human behavior. So I worry a little bit about that, but he did kind of eject himself from that. But to answer your question, I don't know. Are you allowed, by the way, to just be like, like, cause part of me is like, well, he was just over this shit. Like you're playing in 110 degree weather. You're not near the top of the leaderboard.

I think he said this is good. Why? I think that's like really frowned upon from like the guys that paid you $500 million. Sure. How do they know? Right. My toe hurts or whatever the hell he said. He had a cut between his toes. I mean, I don't, all evidence points to the fact that something is a little bit wrong with Rom. So if there's an actual real injury, it might would make some sense and explain a few things. He has not looked to be himself.

which concerns me. But long-term, this golf course, good US Open guy, you know, I don't know. Big Grumpy John could also totally eject and get frustrated at a place that's going to

put the screws to you a little bit like Pinehurst is going to. So ultimately on the balance of it, it's one of those things where, God, if you play him, it's going to look so pretty on Thursday morning when he's 1.8% and you're going to feel like a fucking genius. And then Friday afternoon, you might feel real, real, real dumb, you know, when it was obvious that you shouldn't have played him. So I haven't totally made the call yet, but as you might hear, I'm leaning, not eating. You're not taking that leverage because I don't know that it's worth it.

I could do like, we don't have time for it, but I think what's happening, I think the ROM discussion right now is, is super fascinating. Um, and I, I could do a whole other podcast on like what is happening right now. What, you know, whether it is more of like, was this, is this off the course related? Like, was this him really being self-conscious and insecure about, you know, reaping what he sowed a little bit? Or is this,

you know, are we kind of being too tough by cycle analyzing that point? And he's having just a little bit of golf course regression. The sample size is still to a little bit small, in my opinion, to make broad general generalizations about what is happening with Ron. But like Kobe, I wrote an article in December, uh,

About what ROM needed to do to pass savvy as like the 13th greatest golfer of all time. Like, I think it's, we forget how quickly, like it's so easy for us to forget. He had two bad majors and hasn't won on live yet. Like ROM is on pace was on pace. I don't know. It depends how you,

navigate what he does on live, like to be one of the greatest players of all time, like genuinely like his, his years, 24 through 29 was, you know, one of the best like five year stretches from a strokes gained and accomplishment standpoint that we've seen in, in the modern era. And, um,

You know, now we're having conversations about, I was talking about him potentially finishing his career as a top 12 to 15 golfer of all time. I don't know if anyone knows if he's a top 12 to 15 golfer just playing right now. So it's another podcast, but.

Yeah. Okay. 8K, I love this range. I love Tommy so much. I'm a little worried about the ownership. A lot of buzz around my guy, Tommy Fleetwood, 35 to one in the betting markets. Whoa. And then my guy Fitz, hammered him last week at the Memorial Corps play for me. I love Fitz on this golf course. I'm going to stick with it.

Big fan of Tony as well. And I understand the Hideki thing fairly significantly, but I worry about that ownership a little bit too. How would you assess the 8K range? Justin Thomas iron form intrigues me, but he's kind of a horrendous US Open player long-term. And I don't know that I love his sort of attitude on a golf course like this. I can just...

And I don't think he's going to be low on sneak it up on anybody. So I'm probably on the balance out on him. I would love to play Fleetwood, but I think in my contest, he's going to be, I think he's going to be like a, you know, a Vegas batting odds play and that people are going to, no, I know that's how you went. That's right.

I mean, Tony Finau is my favorite play in this range. I think a lot of long irons benefits him. I think he's shown the ability to kind of dial back driver. He's found, I don't say he's found something with the putting that's getting a little bit too aggressive, but he has, you know,

I mean, he's positive strokes putting at Memorial and then basically a break-even putter. I mean, for Tony Finau, when you're losing 0.2 strokes and 0.4 strokes and 0.5 strokes, that's basically break-even, and that is what we want out of Finau. If he turns that

you know, minus 1.4 into plus 0.4, just two strokes, you know, then we have a whole different ball game. So, uh, and that's not out of nowhere. He's, he stopped putting the toe of his putter up to the sky like a moron. I mean, I've talked about this on this podcast. It's, it was ridiculous what he was doing. So he's, he's made a little bit of change there with technique and it's, it's, you know, helped him become a more functional putter, uh, around the green stuff is a little concerning though. Uh,

You know, he's shown the ability to flash around the green every now and then. Approach looks awesome right now. He was incredible on approach at Valhalla, which doesn't,

It doesn't necessarily translate here, but I think he's a wonderful play and I think he'll come in a little bit under the radar. I'm not biting the Hideki bullet at that. You're not going to convince me to play a 25, whatever percent on golfer who withdraws all the time, who has just all these inherent risks. I mean, that is the most volatile golfer probably in this field. I like Hideki a lot. I find it interesting how we've kind of like decided on Hideki and Fleetwood as the guys this week though.

Sure. Well, right. I mean, I don't understand like why in the world is Hideki going to be two or three times Tony Finau's ownership? I get the Hideki love from a golf course fit standpoint, but I don't get the, yeah.

I mean, he's not in, he's in okay form, right? I mean, he's, it's fine, but it's nothing. It's nothing crazy. I know he played well at Genesis, but I, you know, I don't know. I do like fine hers for him. I don't hate it, but I don't like eating that kind of ownership with, with the decade this week. I think the, the golfer and I'm out, I'm, I'm, I'm so out. Um, I think the golfer with

The most challenging golfer on the slate to Pegas is Cameron Smith, in my personal opinion. Maybe I value Lev stats too much, and maybe I dive too deep into Lev stats.

I cannot emphasize like how bad some of the week to week golf that Cameron young plays and listen, I get it. I said this before the masters. I was like, he is so bad from a ball striking perspective right now. He finished his sex at the masters. Okay. So, um,

Totally understand it. You know, he could brick and murder me again He's playing even worse right now than he was before the Masters and I think the biggest difference between this golf course and the Masters is I think at the Masters you can be short and inaccurate and still content I don't think on any US Open venue particularly this one you can be short and inaccurate

I think cam Smith, the way that he's driving the ball and the way that he's hitting his irons could shoot 80 on this course. I would genuinely believe that. I think he could finish. I think he could finish close to DFL. Kobe. I also think he could win the tournament. Um, I, I,

There is a universe where he bunts it out there and the irons are fine and he makes everything and he shoots even par every single day and suddenly heading into Sunday, he's T-Sex.

I'm not doing it, but I think he is like, like I said, I think he might be the highest range of like, I truly cannot emphasize how bad he is driving the ball and hitting his irons right now. And yet at the same time, he might have the most win equity in the entire AK range. Yeah, I get it. You're not wrong. He's like the human version of Pinehurst. I mean,

we're not quite sure what we're going to get. And if you combine those two, I mean, God, if you like mystery, like him at Pinehurst is kind of your thing. Um, I think he's a guy who could catch a late steam. Honestly, start hearing the stories. Oh, it's like the sand belt. Let's stick this golf course in Melbourne, you know, or Melbourne. Uh,

Which, I mean, there's some merit to that, right? It's not totally wrong, but I think that's the kind of thing that could drive a late ownership surge. And if that's going to happen, I want nothing to do with it. Okay. Favorite play in the seven range and one guy you absolutely have no interest in. Smaller range. Oh, man. Favorite play in the 7K range and a guy I don't have any interest in.

If the ownership is where I think it's going to be, I don't mind Shane Lowry, who is

I think last week. Me too, kind of. He shot 85 on Sunday and really tanked my best six of six. It was some wild, wild stuff, Kobe. Playing with Rory too. Playing with Rory too. Shot 85 in front of Rory. We know that he's this guy who's got sometimes some kind of...

checkout attitude. He's a jolly guy, but if you ever watch him on the golf course, he can just kind of lose himself in a round. But we're coming off where you and I were following Kyle a little bit in his adventures two weeks ago. And at the Canadian Open, he's making runs and he was just a little bit off in that tournament. He was so close to just elevating and then he

He kind of kept Peter and out. He would make untimely bogeys, which is what he does. I mean, in fairness, that's Shane Lowry. But at the ownership, I think I'm going to get him. I'm getting a guy with pretty good kind of long term major form. You know, I like Terrell Hatton as well. I think give me kind of both of the burly boys there.

This range is a little bit underutilized, frankly, but I think Hatton will become pretty popular. Frankly, I think he'll be a live guy that people coalesce on. I think that's going to cause Shane Lowry to be a little bit less popular. You asked me for a guy I have no interest in, ceremonial golfer Dustin Johnson. Did you hear the, I think it was on Shotgun Start or something, but somebody was talking about how he liked the golf club that he practices at. He's been to like four times all year.

Sure. There's an RPS member that was on the grounds today. And he was like, DJ was on his phone the whole time? No, I mean, this is the one guy... I mean, I talk shit about a lot of people on this show, but Dustin Johnson is so...

transparently airheaded that it's almost makes me like him. What you see is what you get. He is the one guy out of all the live guys who went there and was transparent and said, I don't care about any of the stuff you people care about. Yeah. Can't really blame him. Like, I mean, he's,

Whatever. If you're so sort of dumb, he's like the caricature of like every weird thing you think about. Just this idiot who's had a bunch of money dumped in his pocket and just kind of walks through life going. And like he couldn't imagine why anyone would say no to money like what? You know, but that's OK. Like different strokes are different folks. But that's why you're seeing what you're seeing. He took money to retire from golf so that he does not have to work anymore.

Now, he still shows up because people look at him and go, Dustin, you're supposed to show up. And he's kind of asking his managers, like, why do I show up? I have money. I've I don't you know, but but that he's there. Right. And if you watch him play, it's different. He even looks different. He dresses like Zach Johnson now. He wears the saddle shoes. He does not look like back in the day. If you watch Dustin Johnson on the golf course, he looked like this panther.

Like this long, lean, athletic machine. Yeah. And that is not him today. He's a little bit, you know, just a little bit sloppier. Paulina's still rolling with the long, lean machine. She's cracked into the Ozempic trend quite a bit, which is really unfortunate because Paulina did not need to go on Ozempic.

No, no, no. There's a lot of rich people like that where this is happening, where it's like, you did not need to go on Ozempic. Like this drug is not for you. I found all the pounds you lost. Yeah. Like where, why are you doing this? Like you do not, this drug is not for you anyway. Oh, that's good. Anyway, it's Dustin. I said, I want nothing to do with him. Get him away from me. Okay. So real quick for me, just, I,

I I'm not sold that Cameron young likes golf. I love him on this, like these types of golf courses, but I saw everything I needed to see with him last week where I just can't do it anymore. There's one other very risky, uncomfortable click that there's like a gravitational pull that is asking me to do it. Um, the guy, the guy I'm not playing now, the guy I'm not playing, um,

I'm really not as high on Sahith at this golf course as a lot of people are. And I've been taking a lot of issue. I did this bet. Like it's not a bet. I feel strongly about this, a ramp, but yeah,

This thing about people touting creativity, okay? Like this thing that everybody is saying now about this guy's creative. Like I think that he can play well at Pioneers because it's a creative golf course, right? It's like, what are you actually using to measure creativity? Because all of the players that you talk about

that you think are creative, right? Who are the names you always hear? It's Cam Smith. Right. It's Cam Smith. Right. It's Cameron Smith. It's George Spieth. It's at the golf. So all you're doing is you're just picking the best players that miss the most fairways because you see them punching out of the trees all the time and hitting like a punch out of the trees that by the way, every professional golfer can do. So like somebody like Colin Marcavo that just hits every fairway,

he gets penalized in the creativity conversation. He never gets mentioned as somebody that's creative because you never see him having to hit recovery shots. There's no statistical basis on like these people that you say are creative. Anyway, I'm a little bit lower on Seth here. I want to play Spieth so badly, Kobe. Like I played him last week and it was bad play. It was a mess by me.

I really like this golf course for him. And I really like the way he's driving the ball, but he may just be hurt. And we may just have had all of the evidence that we need to know that Jordan Spieth is hurt. And, you know, kind of what Johnson Wagner said, it's like, how do you explain why he's driving the ball? Great. Because he has to hit up on the ball off a tee and he can't hit an iron right now. Cause he's digging into turf. And he is 100%. I think that explanation makes all the sense. I shouldn't do it. Like,

No, that's the question too. It's like, well, he's, he's hurt. Like we've heard he's hurt. He looks hurt. He acts hurt. He's playing hurt. He's hurt. Oh shit. He's driving them all like God.

Huh. And then you can convince yourself, well, he must not be hurt. But then when you really think about, we're talking about a wrist injury, like what is a golf swing? It's a little miniature car crash. It like go to top golf. If you don't really play golf and go hit off a mat for like an hour with your friends. And then the next day you kind of feel like you've had a bunch of just jolts to your system. Right. And eventually when you're hurt, your body, uh,

avoids pain. It changes your swing changes because it doesn't want to do the thing that hurts it. And that's, that's the perfect explanation for what's going on here. And I can't get behind the hurt golfer has such a low floor and such a low ceiling. Yeah. This isn't basketball, right? This isn't the flu game. This is,

And so I think you're for, for not a lot of gain, because I don't think Spieth is finishing top 10 in this golf tournament. You are taking on all the downside risk. Yep. Yep. That's what I needed to hear from, from somebody that loves the uncomfortable collect. That's what I needed to hear. Okay. Okay. 6k range. I'll go first. I love Harris English here.

Yeah. Oh, man. He's been starred on my board for a while now. Do you know he's finished top 10 in three of his last four US Opens? I love Austin Eckroth here. I think Austin Eckroth is really good. And I think he won a tournament already. No, no. But he's going to hit every fairway. And I think he's one of the best ball strikers in this range as well. And he's going to be 1%. And I think for the talent, I mean, how did he finish...

10th at LACC last year. Right. I think he has the modern us open skillset of he drives the ball really, really straight and is a really, really great long iron player. The Henley thing's kind of a bummer because like as a data guy, I think it's like Henley via data golf is like a top 10 player in the world. And I, I don't even like really disagree with them in terms of some of the stuff with Henley that I'm seeing statistically on this golf course. I'm not sure about the ownership. Um,

uh he'll be lower owned than sep i think sep is going to be like 15 and i'm good on that i love aaron rye too i hope he doesn't get any buzz um he hits i just love his skill set i like keegan a little bit too i'm glad he ejected um but what are your what are your thoughts on the 6k range and then we'll wrap up with rory um well i'll tell you i'm i'm out on henley i think he's

At U.S. Opens, if you're going to tell me a guy is getting this much ownership down below $7,000, I'm not going to play a little wormy squirt like Russell Henley. Give me a big, burly, strong boy. It's the whole thing. Who wins U.S. Opens? Big guys who could play football. Wyndham Clark, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Scotty Scheffler. Big boys.

And those are the guys that are master the guy right below him, the natural pivot. I love that. You know, Russell Henley, I have followed him around enough golf tournaments to know he is. Sometimes I don't think he hits it far enough to compete on some of these courses. And I don't think Pinehurst is going to be like that. I think he's going to be able to hit it far enough to compete. But I don't, there's nothing about him that inspires me enough in a major to

to play him at these ownership rates whenever there's, I think there's a lot of really good options around it. And for me, I mean, I like Brian Harmon. I think Brian Harmon has, you always like Brian Harmon. I did. And then I didn't, but I do on these kinds of golf courses. I think he's, I think Brian Harmon's got a very high floor for a guy at 6,900. Um, I don't mind Dean Burmester. Uh, you know, I, I,

I look down the board. I'm not playing Sepp Straka at those ownership numbers. I kind of like Nick Taylor. I know Bermuda is not really his surface, but we're coming off of a 27th at the Memorial. He's a guy who played well at API. He's shown the ability to pop in big fields.

He's the kind of guy I think could flash here. I know he doesn't have a lot of major form to go on, but I'm taking a little bit of a stand on Nick Taylor, particularly at a very low price point. I could get down with Aaron Rye, but I think he's going to become popular, particularly in the contest that I play. Annoying.

I mean, Adam, how is Adam have when not getting more love? What are we? Well, Baz is really mispriced. Like Baz is going to get a lot of love. And I, I, I, Baz was a huge piece for me last week. I'm a best fan. Um, but he's very mispriced coming off a fourth at, uh,

And I think the ownership will reflect that. I actually really like Akshay too. I just want to mention, like Akshay really, Akshay kind of screwed me over the weekend. I thought that that was like a mega mind play at 1% in a six to six I had where he was T3 on Saturday morning and he, he did his thing over the weekend, but I actually really, Akshay is a North Carolina guy too, for what it's worth. He's like a Raleigh guy, right? Yeah. And he's not, I don't think Akshay will be super highly owned.

Well, I think he's one of those guys that you may want to avoid because you think he's going to be highly owned, and then you look up and he's not. 4.8%. You're like, all right, I could have eaten that. I think it's kind of ugly to lower your head down this board, but there's a lot to like in the 6K range. I mean, I could get down with Lucas Glover. I don't hate JT Poston. When you get down here, you're kind of toying with guys who are –

I mean, JT Poston's coming off what? Two straight 22nd and 12th at the Schwab. The problem with some of these dudes is they just don't, they've not shown you anything in the majors, right? And that matters. It matters to some people more than others. But I think there's a lot to like. JT Poston's always played pretty well at Augusta, if you believe in that comp, compared to, you know, his sort of level. So I can get down with JT Poston.

in the spot. You can kind of go dumpster diving and you're going to need to if you're going to be playing up top. But I will not have Buzet in it. To me, I know it's a mispriced, but I don't think it's a big enough mispriced to justify him being... Because down here, if you're comparing him to a JT Poston, he's going to be 10 times more owned. Is he that much mispriced that I want to bite that bullet? We're talking about a guy who...

he's got in his DNA, bad ball striking. Like he can be bad off the tee. If you go look, I know he's more accurate than long, but he, he's got these weeks where he loses with the irons and loses just deep, deep, deep. Um,

And I know he can put the eyes out of it, right? He can just keep himself in it around the green and put the eyes out of it. But I'm not going to play him at the ownership, but I think he's going to come in at my contest. Yeah. I think there's two guys that are playable in the 5k range. One of them's David Puig, who I actually think might be really good. And this might be me overvaluing some live stuff, but you know, I fell in love with Dean B at the, at Valhalla from some of the stuff I was seeing on live and,

And Puig is younger, murders the ball off the tee, pretty highly touted amateur playing great on live right now. I think that could be a good talent upside play at 5.9. And then if you are looking for, I actually think there's a really sharp play. He's going to be in one or two of my lineups, but Chesson Hadley is 5.7 and Chesson Hadley is a North Carolina guy who qualified at the golf club of Duke and

might be like the best long-term champion Bermuda putter in this field, plays all of his golf on this Bermuda surface. And I've been hearing word that he's like the nasty, that he's like Scotty Scheffler around the green with a three wood, that he just like knows and he's been practicing for it for weeks. Like he's been...

you know, he's been, he knows how to hit this shot and he knows how to play golf in this part of the country. By the way, Zach Blair, tree farm comp, by the way, I think we don't have time for that. I will tell you one, I'll say one thing. Um, and it relates to my experience. First time I played this golf course, we played with

a guy who, God, I swear he was 80. Like he shot, he, I think he might've been 82. He definitely shot his age or beat his age. Cause we were wondering like, who is this guy? Right. So we played with him. It was me and my best friend. And we had this guy playing with us and we're like, all right, he's pretty good. He's not hitting it long. He's playing the same tees as us, 80 years old. And we hit the ball a long way. I mean, we're young.

He shot, I think, 76. And we looked up in the middle of the round and we were like, what is happening? Like, what is what's this guy's score right now? Like he keeps making pars because he got just up and down from everywhere. And you watched it and you were like, holy. I remember telling my buddy, like,

Like that guy has played this golf course before. Like he knows what the hell is going on. And there's going to be some of that this week. And if you can quantify it with a Chesson Hadley or whoever, you know, because I watched it. I saw it. This guy had no business shooting 76 or every shot. He certainly did. Oh,

I want to play Stu Hagestan at 5.2. My guy, I just don't think he's, I don't think he, I don't think this golf course is exclusive enough for him. Like, I think he'd feel more comfortable. I think he'd feel more comfortable at Seminole or LACC. He's probably like, he misses the cut on Friday. He's like taking a jet to Shinny. He's just like, I'm over this. I'm going to the Hamptons.

Okay. Give me the Rory cell. I don't have a ton of time because I've done three pods in a row. And so my computer's about to die. And the last thing that I would want is I'm uploading this episode off of Zoom and I lose all that because my computer's dead. So can you give it to me? Well, I can't because I'm hooked up to an audio device that is in the same slot of where my charger would be. Fair enough. You want the Rory cell? Yeah. Let's do it.

I'll give you the Rory sell. And we've been going back and forth on this. And I will say for the people, my Rory bet this week is juice to hell because I doubled in with Scotty last week. Yeah. And also some college baseball stuff. So effectively I'm betting Rory at roughly 18 to one this week, which if you had him at 18 to one on the board, you would play him. I don't know that I like him as much at 11 or what you can get, but,

Now, with that said, my thing about Rory, if you watch him, if you actually watch him closely in the majors, and I thought Baha was going to play a little bit more difficult than it did. That was a miss on my part. Easy majors and even the masters, which can sometimes become a little bit of a birdie fest. Rory has some real anxiety in these golf tournaments where he feels like he needs to make a lot of birdies. And you can see that moment where he doesn't birdie number two at Augusta, where he feels like he needed to. Best major over the last five years for him has been the U.S. Open.

Sure. And it starts going very fast for Rory and he starts getting just a little bit in his head. Oh my God, I made a bogey. Life is over. Like you can watch the anxiety as body language changes. That doesn't happen to him. I don't think at the U S open as much because he knows he's played enough of these to know that, you know, even par minus one, minus two, like that's all he needs to get to. So I think mentally it kind of helps Rory not do the Rory thing, which is great. Right. The other part of this is,

You and I listen to a lot of the same content, right? Andy Johnson's been beating the drum about how

Aggression may be rewarded here. We'll see if that plays out. His whole thing is that conservative shots can sometimes be punished because this golf course baits you into playing away from the pin and then rejects the shit out of you. I agree with that. There's some holes that I disagree with that. I agree with a lot of that. Well, I said earlier, it's a hole by hole basis. The question is, can Rory figure that out? He is a hyper-aggressive,

player, particularly those long irons. And if this is a golf course that's going to reward hitting it at the pin, while a lot of people think, well, we need to play conservative and they get ejected, then that plays in his favor.

And we should add, Kobe, this is just an interjection to bolster your point. His game plan at LACC was perfect until he had a chance to win the tournament. Like his game plan through the first 62 holes of LACC was like some of the best game planning I've seen from Rory in a really long time.

Sure. And that gives you some hope that he can figure out a plan to get around this place. I mean, of course, the downside to Rory is that it's Rory and he's a bit of a mental headcase midget. These events like I mean, we've all seen it.

but he's got a really high floor at US Opens. And if you know he's going to be there and he's going to be knocking on the door, you're going to get, in DraftKings terms, you're going to get a pretty big ownership discount on him off of some of the guys around him, which makes him attractive. From a betting perspective, you're going to get him at four times the odds of Scottie or somewhere close to that. The question and what you brought up is what evidence do we have that he can beat Scottie in a golf tournament? Well, you know, that's a tough question to answer, right? I mean, if you believe that

Scotty's in the field in Charlotte. He wouldn't have played as well. Like, you know, way to know about that. Right. There's no way to know. Right. Um, what evidence do we have that Brian Harmon could beat Scotty by 22 strokes or whatever at Liverpool or whatever he beat him by? Right. And it wasn't 22 strokes, but it was a bunch. Yeah. Golf's a little bit weird like that. And I think Rory, um, I've said this a million times. He'll be there at the end. He was not there at the end of the PGA. Uh, but I do think he's turned into a very, um,

A little bit of a weird golfer who likes these firm, classic golf course tests in the U.S. Open allows him to settle into a tournament without feeling so much pressure to fucking go out there and make birdies early. So the sell on Rory is that. He's also under the radar like hell this week. I don't think anybody's talking about Rory McIlroy, which is fabulous. Same thing that happened at LACC. I bet him last year at LACC. Me too. 16th place.

16 to 1. It was unbelievable. I should have won $200,000 that day if he could have made one putt. But, you know, I think we're getting a little bit of that this week. It's like the time in the summer where people sort of have given up on Rory because he let him down at the Masters and he let him down at the PGA.

And that's usually when he plays well. So there's a lot of reasons to like Rory this week. The reason not to like Rory is sitting at the top of the board with Scotty. So, you know, if you think he can beat Scotty, which he did last year at LACC, he did last year at Liverpool, right? So if you think he, that these are the kinds of majors where he can outperform Scotty, then there's a lot of reasons to like him at this particular golf course, but we'll see.

Yeah, I'm just trying to find the text of you saying that you were done with him at Valhalla. You know me, I never send that text either. I'm usually the optimist. Yeah, yeah. The Valhalla stuff. Well, I knew he was toast the minute I saw how easy the golf course was playing. I bet him and Brooks, which were both guys that I wanted to play on a tougher golf course. Yeah.

I just, I read it wrong. I thought it was going to be a place for big, big boy golfers who are needing to get to 12 or 14 under and I was wrong. Yeah. By the way, I mean, like I said this in a couple of pods, like Benny on thought, I mean, we don't need to do a whole ball hall, I think too. Um, I, I thought ball hall is perfect for Rory. There are a couple of things working in Rory's favor this week. Like I think the fact that there is no, uh,

emotional tie to this golf course is a good thing. I think that this is the first time where he's really not expected to win. I mean, he is really not expected to win. I know he is high in the odds market, but at so many of these majors, whether it be Valhalla, Oak Hill, Royal Liverpool, St. Andrews, don't get me started on Augusta,

There is this belief and emotional resonance and memories that we have with Rory that if he won, it would be so special. And that's why you kind of have people willing him and believing. And I kind of like that.

There's really none of that with Rory. I mean, he's not, it doesn't really have any ties to North Carolina. He played okay here in 2014. And, um, I don't think there's really any pressure on him this week in, in any sense of the word. Like, I don't think Rory has to prove anything this week. Like everybody kind of knows who he is. And I,

I just, it's really difficult for me. Cause I just think that there's, I just think you might be betting the nineties jazz right now, Kobe, like I, and Carl Malone, Carl Malone was a top 20 basketball player of all time. And, and,

Rory is a top 20 golfer of all time, but when you're in a Jordan stretch and there's not one, and I feel this way about Colin too. It's like, what more do you need to see? How many more Scotty Colin duels do you need to see? But I just think that Rory's never had a guy like this. Like if you go back and go through it, the best player that Rory has ever faced in his career was

bits and pieces of DJ in times, like he's gone back and forth with DJ and times and Brooks. And, and to be honest, Kobe, in fairness, like

Rory did all of his best work in major championships before Brooks became Brooks in majors. Rory hasn't beaten Brooks in a major since Brooks became Brooks in major championships. And Rory is a phenomenal golfer, one of the 20 best golfers of all time. I just need to see that one time. And hopefully it's this week. I trade back all my Scotty money. I said that on the other podcast, trade back all my Scotty money for it to happen. So you just see that one time.

Where I believe in my head that Scottie's a plus game is better than, or where is a plus game is toe to toe. This guy's better than skies, whatever. So you can see that one time in my head, uh,

Where he does it and goes toe to toe with Scotty and we just anything other, it's just wishing, right? You're just, you're wishing and hoping it can happen. Cause we have. And my computer died. What a wonderful way to end the podcast. You're just wishing and hoping on Rory. I think you can write that on Kobe and eyes tombstone, uh,

But that's it for the podcast. Special thanks to Kobi. Special thanks to Rumpier Sports. Special thanks to The Rabbit Hole.

And we will be back on this podcast feed, recapping everything that we saw at Pinehurst, talking to some travelers as well. Another signature event on the schedule. Thank you again to everyone that tuned in and supported my content this week. These are very busy weeks. I put my all into them, but very rewarding at the end of the day, especially if I know that I helped out some people and people enjoyed the content. So enjoy the golf this week at Pinehurst. I

I think it's going to be a good one. And we will see you back on this podcast feed next time. Cheers.

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