2024 Travelers Championship Preview
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I'm recording this late on Saturday evening. Watch golf all day at the U S open, had a great dinner girlfriends in town. And there's so much to talk about with the U S open. I have so many fricking takes on Bryson, on Rory, on Shuffler, on the golf course. But I'm saving it. Okay. Because I'm going to do a long Pinehurst recap pod with a media member that was there all week and,

And that's going to be coming out, you know, Monday night, Tuesday morning. So I'm going to save all the Pinehurst discussion for the recap pod. Of course, we will probably tack onto that some sort of,

emergency podcast on the, the very slim off chance. I can't emphasize very slim. Um, but on the very slim off chance that you know who wins, um, we'll, we'll get, we'll get our gang. I don't even want to speak the words, but we'll get our gang out for that one. Um, but I, I wouldn't expect that, right. That would be, that would be quite the pleasant surprise. Um,

Yeah, I'm not going to do that. I can't, I, there's like a whole emotional soliloquy. I want to talk about, um, as it pertains to, uh, our man, Rory McIlroy being in the mix at another major championship. But I thought about it. Um, I thought about talking about how well he's played and what he needs to do tomorrow and what it would mean if he did it tomorrow. I said, I'm not doing it. Can't do it. Can't do it. Um,

Can't expect it. Every time I've expected, I've gotten crushed. So no expectations, pleasant surprise if it happens. And we will talk about whatever happens because-

Whatever outcome it may be, even if it ends up being an absolute runaway where Bryson shoots 67 tomorrow and nobody else breaks par, I still think that is going to be compelling as hell. And there will be a ton to talk about. I personally think it's a two-horse race, in my opinion. I think Bryson—probably Bryson, but—

I think Rory has the chance. I don't believe in the other guys. I don't believe in the other guys. Um, and in the most likely scenario of Bryson winning, there are so much beat on that bone. Um, there will be so much to talk about there and talk about a meaningful thing for the world of golf and, uh, the sport of golf at large and even, you know, golf history, Bryson second us open. Um,

We'll get to all that in length on the recap pod, but we're going to do travelers all tonight. I'll stick with travelers, mainly because there's some stuff to talk about with the travelers. The course has actually changed a little bit, and it's another signature event, surprisingly, another big one. It's impossible to not feel like a letdown coming off of Pinehurst, coming off of

the best non-Augusta golf course that we've seen all year. Not to mention the fact that we had a great stretch, like pretty much outside of Valhalla was a stinker outside of Valhalla. The golf courses that we've seen over the last month from colonial to Hamilton, to Miraflode village, to Pinehurst have been pretty immaculate. Like I've had pretty incredible things to say about,

all four of those golf courses in a row. And, um, TPC river Highlands is kind of a snap back to reality in a lot of situations. They made some changes that the course is obsolete. As Rory said, it still is obsolete, but they made some changes that I'm, I'm cautiously optimistic about. So let's get into that. Um, firstly, it's another 70 man field signature of that. Uh, and, uh,

To my knowledge, all the big guys are there. I mean...

I think there's a pretty severe financial penalty for missing a second signature vet. And to my knowledge, Rory already skipped Kapalua. Scotty already skipped Quail Hollow. I know Hideki skipped one. I don't know if – I don't know about Ludvig or – I think Ludvig skipped Quail Hollow. That might have been for an injury. I don't know if Xander skipped one, but –

Maybe we get a WD coming off the U S open. Like I said, I, you know, it's a really grueling couple of weeks. I think the Pinehurst this week was not just a mental examination, but a physical examination. I haven't spoken to any players about the golf course. Spoken to a lot of media members that are there, some caddies, some people that are on the ground, some fans, a hundred degrees outside with, you know, pretty humid. So I,

Plus coming off of, and you got your ass kicked by the golf course. I mean, you had to be physically, mentally, emotionally engaged on every single shot. Prior to that, you probably played the second hardest golf course on the PGA tour and Mirafield village. And a lot of, there are a lot of people that played Hamilton to Rory McIlroy, for example, we'll be playing his, his fourth week in a row at, at the travelers. So yeah,

Maybe we see a withdrawal or two from some big names, but it's kind of wild that I know Pinehurst to TPC River Highlands is not that difficult of a trip to make. You're just shooting up the coast there, a pretty quick flight out of Raleigh, Durham to Hartford or any of the new York airports in a short drive. But we'll see. I think it's going to be a...

I don't want to say like I I'm only interested in players that were in contention at the U S open or miss the cut at the U S open. Um, but such a wildly different test that we will see at TBC river Highlands, both agronomically, um, in terms of the, the iron shots, like so many wedges, um,

So Pinehurst, so many like high leverage, difficult long iron shots and high leverage, difficult short game shots. TPC River Highlands, small, it's like very similar to Pebble Beach on the East Coast, like small greens, thick rough around the greens, a lot of wedges and green.

You've got to make putts on soft, bent grass greens with not a lot of slope or undulation to them. So we'll see. I wouldn't be—if somebody got their ass kicked by Pinehurst, like I kind of like Victor this week.

He almost led the field on Friday in approach play and just got killed around the greens. He got exposed around the greens at Pinehurst in a way that there's not a golf course on the planet that's going to expose you in that way that Pinehurst did. And I think TPC River Highlands is kind of sneakily difficult around the greens in some spots, but not even in the same ballpark. So the golf course.

Pete died 1982, 2016 renovation and a 2023 renovation that I want to talk about. Um, I had to look this up to find out that they got a renovation. I don't know how many pods are going to now probably they will, but, um, kind of the same thing with colonial. Um, you kind of got to find out what actually happened. Um,

Because I had a sneaking suspicion that they were going to do something to the golf course because Rory McIlroy called it obsolete. And

And it turns out they did. So I kind of just like Googled on a whim, just like I do before any regular PGA tour course, you know, changes to TPC river Highlands ahead of 2024 tournament, just in case. Cause you never know. And it turns out they completed like a pretty extensive remodeling of the golf course. It still ranks as the shortest course on the entire PGA tour.

It features the shortest set of par fours and par fives on the PGA Tour. It's 6,852 yards. Okay. Bentgrass with Poana fairways. Bentgrass with Poana greens running 12 on the stem. And last year we saw pretty wet and rainy conditions. The area had gotten a lot of rain that summer and it rained heavily.

That's the 14th easiest golf course on tour, right? Like starting to get into the zone of everything. So easy on the PGA tour. Now that anytime you rank in the top 20 out of 45 courses in scoring difficulty, you're in the 20 under plus ballpark.

And this last year was the easiest that hit had played in, in the last decade. Prior to that, it had ranked in the middle of the pack to slightly easier than middle of the pack, but we had some, you know, mix in like a 13 under winner in there. Like it could, it stood the test of time pretty well. Except last year, a confluence of factors, you know, no wind at all, softer conditions, you know,

Yielded the easiest scoring conditions that we've seen basically in tournament history, right? So the golf course has made several competitive enhancements ahead of the 2024 tournament. Keegan won last year with a record of 23 under par.

Like I mentioned earlier, Rory made the comments that the golf course was obsolete. The PGA Tour stepped in and said, okay, this is a great venue. It's a signature event. Players love coming here, so we've got to do something. And my guy, Gary Young, got a complicated relationship with Gary Young, who's a senior vice president of rules and competitions on the PGA Tour, said that

We make all of these changes based on data, okay? Shot length, which tracks every single shot that's hit during a tournament. We do a deep dive into that data. We're always looking at whether or not bunkering is still relevant. We're looking at maybe additional features that are necessary to dissuade players from taking shorter routes on certain holes, right?

So with a focus on maintaining the character of the course from an architectural standpoint, we didn't want to actually make the golf course longer. Not a single yard has been added to the 6,582 yard course. So not one added yard, which I'll get it. I'll get into what they actually do, but yeah,

Feels dubious to me that they're like, no, we don't need to add any distance to this golf course, but we'll see. Um, Gary also added, no one ever remembers the winning score or cares about it. All they know is that it was just a fantastic moment. And that's what it's about. Um,

It's all about, did we create the drama for the week in the setup of the golf course last year? I think people kind of overreacted and started saying, Oh, it must be an easy golf course. They shot 2300. Well, Gary, I mean, you're the one reacting, right? Like your guy, Rory McIlroy makes one comment about the course being obsolete and you spent how many million dollars making changes?

Anyway, I interjected with that one. He continues to say, if we have good weather this year and we don't get a lot of rain, you might see the winning score closer to 14 under, quite honestly. I'm dubious about that, Gary. It's a function of the weather to a certain extent. And you also know it's not a function of the weather at all.

Because you made changes to the goal. Like, that's what I kept hearing about Valhalla. Oh, what are they going to do? It's a soft golf course. No, the architecture of the golf course, like really matters. Like,

Certain golf courses, whether they're soft or whether they're firm, the difference is maybe three or four strokes off the winning score. By the way, Oak Hill was soaking wet. Oak Hill got the exact same weather that Valhalla did, and that golf course, which has really hard architecture, winning score was nine under. So the point with TPC River Highlands is...

Yeah. I mean, whether the golf course is soft, maybe the difference between 26 under and 23 under, but you're not really addressing the problem. And I think also what Gary is missing is that the challenge of the golf course actually affects how the leaderboard shakes out, right? Like how challenging you make the golf course is.

That's going to affect the players on top of the leaderboard. Like if you make this, if this continues down the trend towards super, super high wedge festing greens and regulation percentage, then at a signature event, you're probably going to get the most random signature event that you have all season. Like,

What is the most random signature of that? And when I say random highest greens and regulation percentage, highest amount of putting, putting variants, highest amount of wedge play with a lower dispersion pattern that inherently creates randomness. It's the opposite of inducing separation, pebble beach. Right. I mean, this is probably a little bit easier than pebble beach because at least pebble beach is kind of cold and curbs distance a little bit. So,

I understand that it's about the drama, but you do realize and about the leaderboard and nobody remembers whether this guy won at 17 under or 14 under. They remember who won, but Gary, you do realize that.

The harder the golf course is, the better of a challenge that the golf course is, the better of the way that it challenged certain players, the higher likelihood that you're going to have a better winner. You're going to have a better leaderboard. Right. So and I think they know that a little bit. They had to make it a little bit more challenging. Slash, I think they kind of just listen to what Rory says and they don't want Rory.

taken money from anywhere else. So when Rory says a golf course that they're hosting a signature event at is obsolete, they're going to at least make some changes. And I do think the changes absolutely make the golf course more challenging, how much more challenging, maybe a quarter stroke per round. Maybe you're looking at a 16 to 19 under winning score instead of 23 under winning score. I mean, I think all you're doing with these changes to this golf course

This golf course is still going to be obsolete in five years from now. You're maybe just getting like what you're hoping for with these changes is maybe getting back to mid 2010 scoring like 17 under par as opposed to the 20 plus under rage. And, you know, I think that's in play, right? To be completely honest with you, like they changed TPC, Craig ranch. They changed a par five to a par four and the score was like exactly the same.

So would I be shocked at all if this tournament was won at 23 under par again? Maybe a little shocked, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was 20 under, right? I don't think these will make it.

demonstrative difference here. First hole fairway has been narrowed by 10 yards on the left, four yards to the right. I actually think that makes a golf hole better with a increased challenge off the tee on one six hole. The fairway has been narrowed to 32 yards. Mounding has been added to the right. The mounds and thicker fescue will likely make it much more difficult to reach the green in two. That's a par five.

This takes the ability to bomb a tee shot down the right without much worry. So what I'm hearing through some of the changes so far, they're kind of trying to really curb distance here. Like they're not making the golf course any longer. They're just,

tightening it. And they're making the penalty. They're making it harder to, to hit fairways, which by the way, doesn't really always curb players decision to hit driver. Ninth hole angle on the dog leg, right? Has been moved to bring a tree line more into play, heightening the risk of a risk reward tee shot. I actually think that one is,

may prevent people from taking a super aggressive line and cutting the corner. This makes cutting the corner a lot more difficult. The size of the green has been reduced as well. 11th hole back nine section of the green has been eliminated. This is a par three, making it smaller. That just turns a short par three into, again, I think it makes the golf hole better, like a shorter, more difficult par three.

12th hole fairway now ends at 300 yards, taking driver out of a player's hands. This is one that like now actually on 12, they completely bomb and gouge proofed this one, right? Previously, many players could hope to land in a Valley further down the fairway and a flip wedge onto the green from there. Now there's rough and fescue in that area. A new rough replaces a section of the fairway about 320 yards and

from the green. The 13th hole PGA tour considered adding a third bunker to the left side of the fairway, but data showed a significant number of birdies were still being made from bunkers. Yep. Been saying that for years. My bunkers are no longer hazards for these guys. Instead, the fairway has been narrowed and mounding, um, which again will be more of a hazard

and a detriment to the players has been added behind the existing bunkers, creating the potential for uneven lies. That's going to make it harder than if they were hitting out of a flat sand bunker and making it more difficult to reach the green and two that is the par five. So overall, I think the par fives, which had become a total joke are going to get slightly more challenging, right? I mean, the par fives, uh,

13 total joke. Um, 17th, the most easiest hole in the golf course, sex, uh, easiest hole on the golf course. And, um,

I actually think what they basically did to this golf course is this has always been a golf course or what they're attempting to do this golf course. This has always been a golf course that is very kind to shorter hitters, right? In the sense that,

I mean, you look through the leaderboards. Even last year, Zach Blair, Brian Harmon's like the number one player in course history here. Your Zach Blair's, your Shez Reavy's, your Kramer Hickok's. The list goes on and on of all these shorter winners here having a ton of success. But there has been a roadmap here for...

the really aggressive, awesome bomber of the ball, right? If you really hit the ball a long way and take the right lines, the golf course is so short that you can bomb and gouge this place. I mean, the reason why you don't always see

like just bombers win here is because it's, there's some golf courses that can be bombing gouts, like wing foot, where the shorter guys are just dead. This is a golf course that could be bombing gouge, but the shorter guys are so fricking alive here. So, you know, you've been able to bomb and gouge this golf course for years. You just don't see bombing gouge winners anytime because it's so dependent on putting and it's so conducive for shorter hitters to have success here.

but like Bubba's one at this golf course three times and DJ's one as well. And I think just what they're trying to do is make that roadmap of bomb driver everywhere. Hit wedge. You're still going to be able to do it. It's just going to be difficult on a couple, a couple more holes, right? It's going to be tougher on one. One is going to take driver out of players hands. 13, nine, 10,

Yeah, of course.

If Rory has an optimal driving week, he still possesses a tremendous advantage on many of these holes if he hits the ball long and straight. But...

If Rory, the reason why Rory hasn't won this tournament, like Rory has dominated this golf course off the tee. And I think his path to dominating off the tee is going to be a little bit less because of the changes that are made. But the reason why Rory hasn't won is because he's not a good enough wedge player and he's not a good enough putter. Right. And at the end of the day, like bubble was an amazing wedge player and he put it amazing here. Right. So at the end of the day, all the changes really did is,

is they made it just a little bit harder for a guy to make that decision on every hole. Like we were getting to the point with this golf course where if you're Rory or even Ludwig or Scheffler, uh,

There's like no point in not hitting driver on all of these holes because you might as well take your chance. And there's a pretty big missed fairway penalty here. Like the Roth is pretty wet and lush, but the golf course is so freaking short that

A lot of these holes, like Rory's going to bomb driver up there 350 yards, and he's hacking a wedge out of the rough from 80 yards into some of these medium-length par fours. And I think that this just makes the decision a little bit harder. Like they took out fairway in a valley, and that's like fescue now.

They move the tee closer to a tree line, so you might be in some trees if you take the cutting the corner strategy. So I really think that all this golf course stuff, like to be honest with you, and, you know, in fairness, there's one par three that is going to require a more precise wedge shot, right? So I think if anything, all it really did is

I don't think like the way that Zach Blair plays this golf course is going to change. I think all it's going to do is maybe affect the decision-making process for a guy like it's funny. Rory talked about the golf course being obsolete and a lot of the changes that it seemed like they made to the golf course are largely going to only affect like the way that Rory McIlroy drives a golf ball. So anyway, I,

Anything else with the course that I want to talk about? I mean, because I want to get into the model and keep it brief this week, talk about some of the players. It's really stock in the required skill set that you need to succeed here. It's really balanced. I think driving accuracy is really important, particularly more so this year. I actually think that

Rory's roadmap to winning here. Now there's going to be a bunch of holes now where he has to weigh back off the tee and find the fairway, right? This golf course does have like a pretty high missed fairway penalty in terms of this rough is no cupcake, right? I mean, we've seen

a lot of shorter players succeed here. Um, but a lot of the shorter guys are, are hitting the fairway. Like a lot of those guys like Zach player, Ches Revy, Brian Harmon, some of the most accurate guy, Kevin Strelman, Ken Duke, Freddie Jacobson, like all those guys are some of the most accurate players on the PGA tour. And if you're going to be inaccurate, um,

You want to at least be pretty long. Uh, so, you know, it's a lot about wedge play. This is a stark departure. We haven't seen a golf course like this in a really long time. Um,

The closest thing that we've seen to this over this stretch is Harbortown, right? There's a lot of similarities in Harbortown, right? The peat dive at all, the sight lines. Harbortown has a bit of a missed fairway penalty. Harbortown has been a little bomb and gouge-proofed like this place is trying to do, but...

Wedge golf course where all the shots are coming from 125 to 175. There's a very small plurality of shots over 175 yards like you saw at Pinehurst and.

The degree of difficulty of the iron shots aren't overly challenging, and the amount of strokes gained that have come on approach are still below tour average. I don't think this is a second-shot golf course, really. It's kind of tricky around the greens, too. There's a lot of sneaky challenge around the greens, but it's not like short game is—

going to be wildly, wildly important like it is at a golf course like Pinehurst because the greens and regulation percentage is so high. So it's not like players are going to be missing greens here left and right. So you can't really go all that heavy on short game. And I think there's just enough challenge that I wouldn't totally call it a putting contest either, although it's reaching that level. So the point being is,

I think you want like a really balanced skill set of...

Can this guy get hot on the greens? Like, is he a great putter? Particularly on these bet pull of greens. And keep in mind, the rabbit hole is straight up the only data site with the correct putting filter for these types of greens. These are not West Coast pull of greens. Okay. I cannot emphasize that enough. So go to the rabbit hole if you want to make actually accurate models using the right type of greens. But I think it's like,

I don't care how long you are here. There's less of an advantage for being super long here now, particularly with the course changes. You just have to be a really good wedge player and putter, no matter how you slice it. And playing from the fairway is a big advantage. I want guys to be pretty straight, and there's a couple tricky short game shots around this golf course, but I'm mainly looking at

how players have performed on these types of golf courses, right? This is a big golf course for, for comp golf course. And I think people fall to, um, people fall victim to like all of these comp courses, all these short positional golf courses are the same. Not really true. Some of them, some of them are wildly different. Some of them are way more putting contests. Some of them are way more accuracy tests. Some of them are way more second shot golf courses, um,

the golf courses that are most similar to this, in my opinion, I talk about this way more in depth in the article, Harbortown, TPC deer run aesthetically, like TPC deer run is a sneaky driving accuracy course. Similar agronomy has thicker rough. It's a lot about wedge play, some elevation changes. This is so similar to TPC deer run. Like it's a little bit harder than TPC deer run just because Pete die, like designs harder golf courses, but yeah,

So much like TPC deer run. There's a little sawgrass here in some of the sight lines with Pete Dye and the short to middle iron test and the accuracy. And there's a sneaky high miss fairway penalty here. TPC Potomac is a really good one. The year that they had the Wells Fargo that Max Homa won in 2022. That's a very good,

and agronomically similar golf courses as well with a higher missed fairway penalty and a lot of wedges. It was really wet that year, and TPC Potomac's a little bit harder than this golf course. But Sedgefield too is another one. I know that one has different agronomy, but Sedgefield has kind of a higher missed fairway penalty. Sedgefield has much bigger, more undulating greens, but Sedgefield's a lot about accuracy and...

short to middle iron play. I guess the, obviously the agronomy is a little bit different, but like some of these golf courses have the ones that have a little bit of a higher missed fairway penalty and a little bit more of a balance of skillset. Some of these other like Pebble Beach, what you do off the tee does not matter whatsoever. Right. And,

Um, some of the ones like Shriners and Sea Island, those are what you do off the tee does not matter whatsoever. Um,

There's more of a Miss Fairway penalty at this golf course. And it's more of a well-rounded, balanced skill set that you want. You just want to find the guys that have played well on these golf courses in the past and you trust can get hot on the greens and are a great wedge player. We haven't had one of these golf courses in a while. I actually put together the best comp courses, in my opinion. I'll give you guys the top five.

Number one is Sungjae to Russell Henley. No shocker there. I actually think there's a really good bounce back spot for Sungjae three, Scotty Shuffler. No shock there. He's just good everywhere. He's course proof for Patrick. Can't lay five. Brian Harmon golf courses built for Brian Harmon. Some of the other guys that sneakily pop up Jason day, JT Poston, the Zayden how Denny McCarthy. I really liked Denny McCarthy and, uh,

I like Denny McCarthy and JT Poston a lot this week. It's a signature event. I don't think either of those guys can win, but I think Denny and Poston are in a really good spot this week. I think this is going to be a really soft landing for Denny and Poston and Henley and Brian Harmon. I think...

The most interesting guy to talk about is Cantlay because Cantlay went from being completely left for dead, broken at Pinehurst to putting on a really damn impressive performance at Pinehurst. Now, I thought Saturday was the crucial day for Cantlay because...

Still, through three rounds of golf, Cantlay has gained 7.3 strokes putting. Listen, don't get me wrong. He's chipping the ball great. He's hitting his irons well. He's hitting the driver okay, but Cantlay is nowhere near the top of this leaderboard without the strength of his putter, which is pretty surprising too because he is way more of a backgrass guy than a Bermuda guy. But I actually thought that

you know, rounds. Cause each of the first two days on, on Monday or sorry, on Thursday, he ranked 35th and putting first and around the green round two, he ranked 16th and putting one 31st and around the green kind of fell back a little bit. Um, and then round four, round three, he was a negative ball striker and, um,

ranked third out of all the 74 players that played on Saturday. Cantlay ranked third in putting. Okay. And if you go out through the entire week, Cantlay is 39th off the tee, solid 14th on approach, very solid 24th around the green second putting. So I don't know if Cantlay is like all the way, all the way back, but yeah,

Now he's traveling to like the best two golf courses on tour for Patrick Cantlay are probably a Harbor town and TPC river Highlands. So it's, I wonder what's going to happen with Cali this, this coming week. Like,

My spidey senses are like, oh, that's dangerous. And the other part of me is like, oh, that's like really perfect. Like, can't let him show signs of life and then goes to the best golf course for him on tour. Is it that easy that like, can't let him just going to show us something and then do it? Like, it's just going to come that quickly, which I think that's kind of like something you have to be careful about with like golf.

Victor Hovland for a while. And I made this mistake at, at the Memorial, um, like Hovland, Hovland's broken. Okay. Right. Hovland's broken. And then he contends at, at Valhalla. And it's like, Oh, perfect. Now Hovland is back and he's returning to the perfect golf course on it for him on tour. He should totally win the Memorial. Right. And then it's like, well, he's not all the way back. Right. Like we can't,

It's not going to happen necessarily that quickly. He showed us that he's got a pulse again, but it's rarely like, oh, this guy has a pulse again, then he just wins. And that's kind of my subjective concern with Cantlay. Like, okay, he's got a pulse again. He's probably going to play great at the Travelers again. But is it that easy? Is he just ready to win right now for showing signs of life? Like, trust me, don't get me wrong. If he could do it at Pinehurst,

Obviously you could do it at TPC river Highlands. Like Piners is the type of spot where Piners just is going to expose every aspect of your game. Like if you're not playing good golf at Pinehurst, it will completely expose you. Like look at JT, you know, JT finished eighth at Valhalla on serious golf course, uh,

you know, what do you shoot plus 13 at Pinehurst on a really serious golf course? Like that's, that's going to expose you. So, you know, can't really show it at Pinehurst, even if he's hitting the ball. If he was a neutral putter at Pinehurst, can't really would be like, I don't know, T 14 right now, but he's definitely got a pulse and is returning to maybe the perfect golf course for him on tour. So, um,

I already knocked out Cantlay, I guess, because that was one of the more interesting guys that I was thinking about that I wanted to talk about. But let's run through the model real quick. But first, let's take a quick break, and then we'll be back to finish up with the model.

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Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much?

I'm sorry. I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at mid mobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only taxes and fees extra speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. Okay. We are back. So top 20 in the model. Number one, Scotty Scheffler. Oh man. I don't want to do the whole, what happened to Scotty at Pinehurst thing now, but I,

I want to give credit to Kobe because one of the things that he talked about to me, both on podcasts and certainly in group chats of like, are we sure that the Scotty terrible putting isn't still there? Like, are we sure that that's just completely eradicated? You know, he had been Scotty had gained strokes putting and,

In seven straight starts. Since he won the API, he's gained strokes putting. Sometimes very marginally. Sometimes it's barely gaining strokes putting. But we haven't seen a bad Scottie putting performance since February. He's been, at the very least, a neutral putter since Riviere. So we have this three-month sample size of Scottie seeming to change who he is as a putter.

And, um, Kobe basically was like, well, is that enough of a sample size? Right. And it turns out that part of Scotty still lives in him. Right. Um, Scotty is T 42 heading into Sunday. And this is not like a.

an abnormal ball striking performance from him. Like Scotty's third and approach Scotty's sixth in T to green. Um, the only players that have been better than Scotty T to green at, at Pinehurst this week, uh,

are Rory Bryson, Hatton, Sergio, and Finau. Um, so it hasn't been a ceiling Scotty performance from T to green. He's gotten himself in some trouble off the T. I don't love the way that Scotty's driven the ball on this golf course, but, um,

You know, Scotty's not first in T-degree in every single week. He's always top seven, and he's sixth this week and dead last in putting out of all the people that made the cut. He has lost through three rounds, 5.3 strokes putting, and I still think he would have needed to do a little bit more. Like if you...

If you put him at a neutral putter, he is even par in this tournament. So that's still seven strokes back of Bryson. Bryson was better tee to green than Scottie just straight up. Not by a mile, but by enough that if you get this Bryson performance... I mean, Bryson has been putting incredibly well too, but...

Um, you know, not Scotty would be Scotty still lose this tournament. Um, if there were other concerns, like I'm not just doing the thing where, Oh, right. Peck Scotty just couldn't buy a pot. Like, no, there were concerns with Scotty that I miscalculated for sure. Um, and particularly as the week went on. And if you listen to, um,

If you listen to some of the content that I did surrounding RPS, like the stuff on the premium show and in the discord, like as we got to Wednesday, all the subs, like I started to get this bad feeling in my mouth about what happens if you can't be as aggressive on approach and

players are all kind of hitting to the same shots on approach. And it, it turns into a contest of who can get up and down the most inside 20 yards and who's the best at making six footers. Um, and the, uh,

the misses on the fairways got a little bit overblown and some of the, the bombers are not getting penalized as much as we think for, for the, for the best fairways. Um,

and scotty's long and straightness isn't as much of an advantage here he's not able to separate as much with his irons because the golf the greens are so severe that it's so hard to get close to the pin and so everybody's hitting more conservative irons to the same spot and the emphasis actually falls on um

Like how good of a chipper and a putter you are and how good you are at making 10 foot par putts. I was getting that feeling and talking about that feeling on my shows and towards the end. And that ended up, that ended up a lot of that ended up being true. It didn't get me on Bryson. Yeah.

Didn't get me on Bryson, but a lot of that ended up being true in terms of the players that I started to favor where I kind of, it's kind of paralysis by analysis, but I was kind of just like power and short game and putting right. Like power off the tee now more than accuracy. And, um,

either elite as a chipper off of tight Bermuda or elite as a lag putter and really damn good inside 10 feet. Cause you're going to have so many six footers for par and you,

Like that got me on D tree. Like I ran a model. I reran a model of like, okay, who are just the best guys on fast Bermuda, like at lag putting and getting up and down. And you know, it, it got me on D tree. It got me on Billy Horschel at, at the 11th hour. It got me on a Harris English. I was already pretty high on. And that, that,

That non-consideration, I don't know how this turned into a Pinehurst thing, but I think the Scottie thing is what happened with Scottie is so interesting to talk about this week. Far from sounding the alarm bell is like, you know, he...

he's going to be fine. I don't think he's going to win for the rest of the season. I guess that's a hot take, but my take before this was he's going to win the US Open. Then he's not going to win for the rest of the season. I don't think he's going to win for the rest of the season outside of maybe the tour championship at Eastlake. But I don't know. I think there's not a lot of accountability sometimes when you miss on something. And I've never bet that

in this industry big time. And I've never bet a guy at four to one ever in my life. And I did so largely because of the golf course fit, which is what I'm best at, right? Like that is how I've built my entire career of like course fit, like figuring out who is going to play well on certain golf courses because of, you know, the architecture and the agronomy and the conditions and,

And I thought that this was going to be a golf course where Scotty was like really, really, really going to be able to separate with his approach play here. And he is having about as good of an approach week as he can. And it doesn't matter because you can't be super aggressive on this golf course. You still have to make a ton of pots inside 10 feet and you still have to get up and down.

And, you know, I kind of missed on that, to be honest. I like I got on the set later in the week. But after talking to a million people that were there and again, can't beat myself up too much. I maybe would have gotten on this earlier in the week. Not maybe. I definitely would have if I was at the golf course.

But after talking to all of these people at the golf course and really honing in on what was happening that week and the strategy that players were taking, I really started to get this. I'm repeating myself to RPS subs, but I know there are a lot of non-RPS subs that aren't in the Discord and don't hear the premium stuff. So I'll say it on this podcast. I really start to get this foreboding sense that like,

a lot of these guys were going to take their medicine on approach and it was going to be harder to separate on approach. And there was just going to be even the great approach players like Scotty were just going to be hitting so many long irons to like 50 feet. And it was going to come down to lag putting, and they were going to hit some to 15 feet, 50 feet, and they were going to miss by two yards. And the ball was going to go roll off the green. And

And it was just, it just was going to turn into this golf course. It actually kind of made it hard to like really hit elite, elite iron shots and go out pants. Like there were not a lot of times on this golf course where you could really confidently say like, I am going at this pen, right? Like you could play away from pans and put like, I've watched, uh,

and Bryson so closely all week and not doing anything on Rory. Like, but yeah,

The only reason why Rory has a chance to win this golf tournament is because of his patient game plan. If you had concerns about Rory's being too aggressive on this golf course and this being the ultimate discipline, patience, take your medicine golf course,

because of how Rory attacks certain other golf courses. I'm just telling you right now, I don't know if you could like after the game plan that he rolled into Pinehurst with, and after the game plan that he rolled into LACC with, I don't, some of the mistakes that he made particularly on the back nine were like execution mistakes. Like he just hit really bad iron, like the two bogeys that he made down the stretch on Sunday, he hit really bad iron shots.

Rory's game plan this week has been pretty, pretty damn perfect. And it's because he realized that if he got overaggressive and got his hand stuck in the cookie jar trying to hit hero shots, then it was going to play poorly. And for a guy like Scottie Scheffler, the best way for him to separate right now is with his iron play. And he just didn't really have...

that ability to, to do that on this golf course with this iron. So you had to rely more on putting from 50 feet plus and, and,

making a lot of those six footers for park. Cause you're not going to hit all those pots to tap in range. And, um, he putted really, really damn bad, really, really, really damn bad. And, you know, even if he put it to neutral, he still would have had to drive the ball a little bit better this week. The thing with Bryson too, um,

So last thing I'm going to say on the U S open, it's just so much fun to talk about. Cause it's been such a fascinating golf course strategically. So like, this is the type of stuff that I nerd out on. Think about Bryson too, on this golf course. First of all, Bryson is amazing.

I know for, you know, many of us who've been watching Bryson for a long time have seen this, have seen them do it on difficult greens at winged foot and have seen them him do it, you know, on these these back grass golf courses where, you know, he's gained 12 strokes putting before Bryson may be the best like at distance control in the entire world. Like Bryson is really good.

genuinely a top five lag putter in the world. He really is. And obviously the statistics spread that out. He's the fucking stone nuts inside, um, inside, uh, 10 feet as well. He is, there are a few players I trust in golf and even, even missed one here on the back nine, I think on 13, but he made so many clutch six footers for par. Um,

And, you know, even on the one time that his short game, which is can still, that's still all week has been the weakest aspect of his game is sometimes the short game stuff can still be a concern. But if Bryson has the opportunity to putt,

If he has a 70 foot putt from off the green, there are a few people that I trust in the sport to read the putt better, to get closer to the hole than Bryson better. And I think another thing that we need to talk about with Bryson is he still hits the foul ball sometimes. And he got a little bit lucky in some points with like,

not getting severely penalized the way I thought that he maybe would for the loose ones. He hits so many freaking drives straight. And he has hit a lot of fairways this week. And you know what? He did that at Valhalla. He did that at Augusta. At every single major championship this year, Bryson has not just been driving the ball long. He's been driving the ball really damn straight. Really damn straight. And he hit...

Round three, yeah, he's hitting 8 of 14 fairways. Gosh, that's all you need. That's all you need on this golf course. Second round, 8 of 14 fairways. Got the first round, Bryson hit 12 of 14 fairways. Yeah, so Bryson's hit, where's my math, 28 fairways this week out of 42. So winged foot, for example, previous major, like Bryson's hitting

you know, barely 50% of his fairways. He's up over 60, 70% of his fairways, um, which is really special stuff. So, um,

Ludwig, number two. Zander, number three. Russ Henley, number four. Rory, five. Brian Harmon, six. Corey Connors, seven. Victor Hovland, eight. Hideki Matsuyama, nine. Justin Thomas, 10. Keegan Bradley, 11. Patrick Cantlay, 12. Colin Morikawa, 13. Sungjae M, 14. Siwoo Kim, 15.

Tommy Fleetwood, 16, 17, Lucas Glover, 18, JT Poston, 19, Shane Lowry, 20, Denny McCarthy. So I really need to see how Sunday plays out at Pinehurst in terms of the players that I'm interested in. I could see Ludwig. I don't think Ludwig's winning this tournament yet.

I don't think he, I think he's going to have an okay Sunday, but again, my prediction is this turns into a bit of a two horse race. And I don't think Ludwig's going to be one of those two. I could see him coming back the next week and winning on this golf course. Ludwig's an amazing putter. He's had a lot of success on shorter golf courses. Um,

And he's actually, you know, he's had a, he's sneaky good wedge player. He's, he's also had like a lot of success on bent grass greens too. The Olympics are really good putter, really good putter. And he's putting really well this week again at Pinehurst. And he would be probably in that final group. If the short game didn't do a man. I mean, that's the thing about Pinehurst. Like,

What vague short game was still an issue. The thing with Ludwig is he hit every single fairway and every single green for the first two rounds. And the one time he got himself in a precarious short game spot, he made a triple bogey and, and that was his, his tournament. Um, but Ludwig's hitting the ball so well, and he's not going to be in a position at TBC river Highlands where he can chip his way out of winning the tournament. Um,

Corey Connors, I think you've got to monitor. Something's going on with Corey Connors' short game in putting.

It happened last week at... It happened the past two weeks at Hamilton and Mearfield Village where he's just been chipping and putting better, and I still didn't believe it that it could... At Pinehurst, a guy that is so long-term historically poor with a short game and putter could succeed at this golf course. Corey Connors has gained...

over three and a half strokes putting this week and he's gaining strokes around the green at Piners. So there's like something there with him that he is put some work into that aspect of his game. It has gotten a lot better. He's obviously not going to win the US Open, but I did not. I thought that Connor's short game and putting even though it had looked better over the past couple of weeks was still going to be a serious problem here and

eye tests, stats, like he's putting and chipping the ball a lot better. He really is right now. And so you combine the approach play and the off the tee play. And I think something might be starting to happen with Connors where he's starting to fix a part of his game that was very poor for a very long time. And then,

You know, the usual suspects, Colin has been really weirdly bad at this golf course. I just want to say like as a DFS leverage play, JT finished almost DFL at LACC and then finished top 10 at the travelers the next week. So I'm not betting JT this week. Like I don't think he's close enough to win a golf tournament yet, but I also don't think he can make enough putts on this golf course to keep up. But yeah,

I would, I think Pinehurst is a golf course that can make a lot of really good players look really, really stupid. Um, and, um,

I think JT is going to play pretty good this week at the travelers. I think he's going to have like a nice sneaky little bounce back. Everyone thinks he's, I played him at the heritage on, on for the same reason. Like everyone thought JT was broken at the heritage finished T five. That was one of my best DFS weeks of the season. I think JT is going to, it's such a wildly different test. I don't think he's winning, but I think the guys I'm looking at are can't lay JT.

The Ludwig number is going to be really low. And then like the usual suspects of short, you know, short positional Mount Rushmore, right? Henley, Harmon, Connors. I generally hate Denny McCarthy. I really liked Denny McCarthy this week. I liked the way that he's playing at Piners JT Poston. I really liked JT Poston this week. I liked the way that he's playing at Piners. The way that it's been for, for signature events is like,

These guys aren't winning signature events, right? Like your JT Postons and your Denny McCarthy's and even your, your Corey Connors aren't really winning signature events. The only guy that,

who won a signature event that is that type of player was Chris Kirk the first week of the season. And that was a total, total putting contest. And this is like maybe I guess the closest we have to Century along with Pebble Beach of like the easiest signature event where you probably coming off a brutal stretch of golf, you might have the highest chance to get a surprise winner. So, you know, I could absolutely see

Poston or Denny or I really like Sungjae. Russell Henley will be popular for good reason. Corey Connors, Brian Harmon. And then I think the big decision will be at the top of, I think my favorite two at the top are Ludvig.

Ludwig's just, it's time to win. Ludwig's going to win a signature event this season or something this season. Ludwig, Hovland, off the bounce back, or Cantlay. I think those are the three guys I would bet at the top. I would choose between. I don't love any of them, though. I need to see how things look on. I really want to see...

How can't land Ludwig look tomorrow at, at Pinehurst. But all right, that'll do it for me. Enjoy the golf tomorrow. I think it's going to be a, a pretty historic and watchable day. And I say that even with the possibility that the guy leading by three closes the door on, on people early. I think Bryson, a one winged foot by three,

Bryson won winged foot by five or six. I think he won winged foot by six. This would be a great Justin Ray stat, but Bryson has the opportunity. I would imagine to win this,

I don't know how many guys have won two U S opens in five years by like multiple strokes, right? Like I think there's something for everyone tomorrow. Um, even if Bryson shuts the door early and, and if Bryson shuts the door early, that's fascinating to talk about Bryson potentially being the second best player in the world. Um, potentially, you know,

Being a historically great golfer, you win two U.S. Opens. I'm putting you on my pyramid and I'm talking about your historical context, right? Whatever happens with Rory tomorrow, like I get the terrible sense that Rory's going to play like good and not play good enough to win and.

not eject and just get beat, I guess, by Bryson or something like that. It's almost like more interesting with, I don't think Rory's going to eject. I'd be very surprised, surprised by that. I think there's a scenario where like,

Bryson shuts the door early and Rory just plays fine, but I don't think Rory is going to play badly. I just think there's a very high likelihood that he can't make up three strokes on Bryson. Like he has to play two things need to happen for Rory to make up three strokes on Bryson. Like Rory needs to have a great round. Things need to go wrong with Bryson. And I think one of those two things are happening, right? Like,

I think that, um, it's possible that things go wrong with Bryson. And I also think it's possible, um, that Bryson goes crazy. And, and in, in either one of those scenarios, um, you know, in one of those scenarios, it ain't happening anyway, if Rory plays great. And even if things go a little bit sideways with Bryson, Rory will still need to play great. And, um,

Like I said, it's almost more interesting if something terrible happens with Rory tomorrow. Like he gets really close to the finish line and then doesn't do it. But whatever happens, I think in most scenarios, again, I guess the most boring outcome is he just plays okay and gets beat. But I think in most scenarios, there's going to be something really fascinating to talk about there.

I'm so good on the Pavone thing. Like so, so good on the Pavone thing. I've got like no take, no take on him. I'm so not interested in him at all as a player, as a person, as a concept. I'm so good on that. I really hope I don't have to talk about him on my Pinehurst recap. So I just don't have any take. I'm so, I'm so, so good on that.

And, you know, can't wait. And Xander back to back me. I don't think it's going to be can't like can't like fascinating. The point being is Ludwig tail. The point being is, although I think he killed himself on that whole thing.

Point is it's going to be a phenomenal, historically relevant, fascinating day of golf. I wish I was going to be with my dad, particularly with Rory having a chance. Like that's our guy. I'm in LA. He's in New York. I'm flying back to New York for the rest of the summer on Tuesday. So we have kind of a belated father's day celebration, but call your dad, you know, hopefully you get to watch Rory.

the golf on Sunday, uh, with your dad, some of my best memories, my, my first golf memory ever, uh, with my dad on, on father's day was, Oh, wait, Torrey Pines. Um, I was 14 years old. That was the first time that I, I was a, I was a junior golfer, but that was kind of the first time I really fell in love with, with the pro game and started following the pro game, um, that Torrey Pines us open in, in Oh eight that, that tiger one. And, um, yeah,

It's my favorite Sunday of the year, I think, right? Like Master's Sunday and Father's Day Sunday, U.S. Open. And I hope all of you get to watch with your dad tomorrow or call your dad tomorrow and enjoy the golf because it's a special golf course. We got a couple special players in the mix. And I hope you enjoy tomorrow as much as I do.

So that will do it for me, and we will see you back on this podcast feed recapping everything that happened on Sunday at Pinehurst number two. Happy Father's Day. Have a great Sunday. Best of luck with your bet. Cheers.

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