2024 PGA Championship Betting Preview
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We're going to talk my bets for the PGA Championship. If you want a detailed course breakdown of Valhalla, you can find the comprehensive guide to Valhalla up on this podcast feed. Awesome episode with Steve Bamford. We dove super deep into the golf course, what types of golf courses we should be comparing Valhalla to a bunch of the players, but I recorded that on Wednesday and

Steve, uh, before the Wells Fargo even kicked off and I'm recording this episode this Sunday afternoon, right before the leaders tee off at the Wells Fargo championship. I want to post this as soon as the Wells Fargo is completed. So a lot has changed in the last couple of days. I feel a lot more confident and locked into my choices, uh,

There's still some players I'm deciding on that I want to talk through, but I've got a pretty good sense of what I'm going to do. And what ends up happening on Sunday at the Wells Fargo, it's not going to have an impact on my betting card. It will absolutely have an impact on my DFS pool. And Kobe and I will be back tomorrow night breaking down the entire DFS slate. But

I swore to myself after the Masters, I'm done betting Rory at major championships for the time being. I don't care what provocative thirst traps that he is posting the week before. I'm not going to do it. Rory looks like the best golfer on the course right now. He's first and off the tee. He's second in approach. He's first tee to green and entering the final round one stroke back of

Xander Shoffley. It will be very good for the bank account if Rory beats Xander today because he was my headline selection in DFS this week. And the reasoning was...

Rory is the best quail hollow player of the last decade. This is the best golf course for him from a ball striking perspective over his extensive career. He's the best week before a major player of the last decade. He is averaging over 2.5 strokes per round the week before a major, which is just an insane number. And the week before a major is not a major. Just a reminder, his T degree numbers are,

at the Valero the week before the Masters were also incredible. They weren't quite as good as this, but they were pretty damn good. His practice rounds at the Masters were incredible. And then something out of body, something metaphysical happened to him when he hit that first tee shot at Augusta. And he was a different player when that tournament rolled around on Thursday morning. Now, I don't think that that metaphysical force

preventing Rory from playing his best golf exists at other majors the way that it does at the Masters. I can tell you with 100% certainty that Rory will play better at Valhalla next week than he did at the Masters. He will finish better than T20 at Valhalla. You can clip this. You can lock that in. But it is not a bet for me at 10-1, despite Valhalla being better.

just about as good of a fit as you can get for Rory McIlroy skill set. And I do think whether he wins or loses to Xander today, and you could apply the same logic as it pertains to Xander's chances next week too. But I think it matters. A lot of the time, I actually don't want a player to win in his start directly prior to a major game.

I don't want him to waste a good putting performance. I don't want him to blow his low too early. But I do think whoever wins today between Rory and Xander is going to have a better PGA Championship next week. And I'll tell you why. I think this is a confidence thing. And everything next week at Valhalla needs to be viewed through the prism of whether or not you think this player can beat Scotty Scheffler over four rounds of golf. And I'm telling you right now,

Rory McIlroy and Xander Shoffley. I'd throw Wyndham Clark in that group too, even though he's not having the best week. Those three guys are the best players on the PGA tour, not named Scotty Shuffler. And they've all had really nice seasons, but they have not been able to beat Scotty or really come close to that, to be honest with you. And as it pertains to Rory and Xander in Rory's case, if he can't beat Xander tomorrow, then

I don't think you can seriously expect to beat Scottie and vice versa, right? And that's why I think the player who wins tomorrow between Rory and Xander is going to have a stronger PGA and hopefully be bolstered with the confidence that, you know, I am the closest thing to Scottie Scheffler on the PGA Tour right now. And I have effectively taken down the other biggest threat in basically a 1v1 situation.

If Rory takes down Xander tomorrow, I think that does tremendous things for his confidence heading into Valhalla. And like I mentioned, vice versa, if Xander closes the deal this afternoon, you know, how can you confidently tell anyone that Rory has the chutzpah to take down Scotty and Brooks and Rom for that matter, if he can't go toe to toe with Xander and beat him. And I know golf doesn't totally work in a vacuum like that. There's,

not some provable correlation from one tournament to the next. Each week is its own isolated event. But in most cases, I don't want a player to win the week before a major if I have interest in him the next week. But in the case of Rory and Xander, two guys that I think need a confidence boost in terms of

Their inner belief that they can beat Scottie just based on the fact that they were parents, they're paired with Scottie at the Masters and Scottie truly dog walked those guys on Friday afternoon. I mean, he really showed if you ever want a master class in why Scottie Scheffler is the best player in the world and why he's on a different level of.

Then Rory McIlroy and Xander Shoffley, you just go to masters.com and watch them play together on Friday in difficult conditions. Difficult conditions separates the men from the boys. It separates elite players from very, very good players. And that's what happened on, on full display clear as day. Last time Rory Xander and Scotty went toe to toe at a major championship. But like I said, it, you know, if,

Depending on who wins this week between Rory and Xander, I think it's a crucial stepping stone for both of them in terms of generating belief in themselves that they can beat Scottie next week. And I think that the loser will still—the loser between Rory and Xander will still have a good PGA. Both Rory and Xander are tremendous fits at Valhalla. They're the next two players in my model behind Scottie Scheffler.

I think Valhalla is an excellent golf course for Xander Schauffele as well as Rory McIlroy. But what happens today between the two will definitely affect my DFS pool, who I choose in one and done. This week, I hammered Rory in DFS and played Xander in one and done. Next week, I'm playing Rory in one and done.

Zander, presumably in DFS, if he wins, I'll definitely try and have some exposure to him, but not even sure if I like Zander more in a vacuum than Brooks or Rahm, even if he does win. And that leads me into talking about why this may end up being a very live heavy major for me. And I think the part of the reason I think there's logic in a fairly live heavy approach is

goes back to the point I stated earlier about how everything needs to be viewed through this Scottie Scheffler prism. Rory and Xander are the best players on the PGA tour right now. And they have still given us little to zero evidence that they can beat Scottie Scheffler in four rounds. There's a little bit more of an unknown factor with the live players. You know, we can confidently say that the best two players on the PGA tour are

The best three players on the PGA Tour, if you want to throw Windham in that group as well, who's come very close many times, probably can't beat Scottie. We've seen them all go head-to-head 8 to 12 times this season. I know that Windham beat Scottie through three rounds at Pebble Beach, which is about as different of a golf course as you can get compared to Valhalla, where he just...

caught absolute lightning on the greens. But, you know, we've seen these four guys, Rory, Xander, Wyndham, and Scottie go head to head eight to 12 times this season. I don't think Rory has ever beaten Scottie in a stroke play event this season. Xander's done it maybe once or twice, but at least with Brooks and Rom and Bryson, I know that all we have is the masters. And yes, none of them really came close to Scottie at the Masters, although Bryson kind of did.

Um, and I am about as in the weeds on live data as you can get. And I still think there's a possibility with those three guys, Ron Brooks and Bryson. And there's a couple other web guys that I like as well that I, I think are undervalued as well as some of those, you know, that I'll talk about a little bit later on this podcast, but as it pertains to Ron Brooks and Bryson,

I still think there's a chance that some of those guys, at least one of those guys, if not two, are closer to Scottie right now than anyone on the PGA Tour. I mean, I think if you're doing a draft of which player in a final pairing tied with Scottie heading into Sunday, you have the most confidence in to beat Scottie. Is Brooks the number one draft pick? I think he has to be.

Is Bryson the number two draft pick? He would be for me. I mean, Bryson won a U S open by five on a somewhat similar setup to Valhalla. You know, I still believe that Bryson's a game, especially because when Bryson is on his a game, he's not only the best driver of the ball in the world. He's also one of the best putters is right there with Scotty. And you look at in contention performance and final round performance, uh,

Bryson and Brooks are two of the best in contention players of the last five years from a strokes gain standpoint. And anecdotally, I don't think that that should surprise anyone. You know, on the PGA tour side, on the other hand, the two best in contention players from a strokes gain standpoint over the last five years are Morikawa and Homa. And we saw how that worked out at Augusta national when they were in contention with Scotty. None of those guys are beating Scotty next week either.

They weren't good enough. So this is good. We got the Rory discussion for the most part out of the way already. We mainly got the Xander discussion out of the way. I was able to set the stage for why I think there's value in the unknown element with the with players. So let me do one or two quick notes on this golf course that I didn't get to touch on.

in the Bamford pod. And then we'll run through the model and any bets. So in terms of the golf course, the specs are simple. We talked about this before Louisville, Kentucky, which has gotten a lot of rain. Talk about the weather a little bit too. Par 71, 7,609 yards designed by Jack Nicholas, 1986 rebuilt the greens in 2011.

Into the 2021 resurface fairways from back grass to zoysia grass. There's new teas on 1, 12, 14, and 18. The greens are 5,000 square feet, pretty small, a little bit larger than Oak Hill, but still pretty small. Water comes into play on seven holes. T1 back grass running 13 on the step meter. Zeon zoysia grass and tall fescue bluegrass mix four inches.

Um, and since 2014, when we last saw PGA championship at Valhall won by Rory McIlroy at 16 under on a soft golf course, new tee boxes have been added to the first 484 yards now to the eighth, 190 yards now to the 12th, four 94 now 14th, which is 254 yards now. And the 18th, which is 570 yards now. Um, and it's a very, um,

typical Parkland golf course. I have said, and from an architectural standpoint, I think it's the worst golf course we've seen host a major since Torrey Pines in 2021. I would say Quail Hollow, Belle Reve, Torrey Pines, Valhalla are the least interesting US major championship venues we've had in the last five years. I

I think in many ways, again, I talked about this in the Bamford pod, but I think in many ways, this is a less fun version of Oak Hill. And a lot of the architecture heads weren't a fan of Oak Hill. I thought the Oak Hill criticisms were fair. Obviously, I'm a little bit biased on the Oak Hill front. Although, you know, I can get down with the homogeneity of test when it comes to

although I can't get down with the homogeneity of Tess when it comes to professional golf. I'll stand by the fact that Oak Hill is a wonderful club and a wonderful town to host a major championship. And it's one that truly embraces its atmosphere and traditions and welcomes and caters to major championship golf. And I think that that

is just as important in selecting a major venue as the architecture of the golf course. And I think what Oak Hill lacks in architectural intrigue, it makes up for in atmosphere, in energy, in the way that the club embraces major championship golf.

And that juxtaposition is strong with a place like Los Angeles Country Club, which provides the inverse of this argument. I think Los Angeles Country Club is a top five golf course architecturally in America. I was there two days ago. It's a top five golf course I ever played in my entire life. I think it's that good. But it's not a good major venue necessarily, right?

it's undeniably a worse golf club to host a major championship than Oak Hill. And pure architecture is not what makes a golf club a good or bad major venue. So as it pertains to Valhalla,

I reserve the right to be pleasantly surprised by that atmosphere at Valhalla, by the fan turnout, by how it looks on television, by maybe the way that the town of Louisville and the membership wraps its arms around hosting a major in the same way that Rochester and Oak Hill did. Although I do think

Louisville is going to face a lot of the same predicament that Rochester Oak Hill did with the weather. Um, but if you nail the atmosphere, if you nail the energy, if you nail the fan turnout, um, that can mask some of the limitations of the golf course. Um,

But I don't think Valhalla is a good golf course. I mean, it's everything that people didn't like about Oak Hill with less interesting green complexes. You know, there are some inexplicably bad golf holes at Valhalla. I think seven's a terrible golf hole. I think 13's a terrible golf hole.

Um, there's more homogenized strategy in the way that it favors a fade off the tee. And really I'm not a Jack Nicklaus fan as an architect. I don't even think Valhalla is one of Jack Nicklaus's top 10 golf courses that he's designed. Um, and if you want to give a major championship to Jack Nicklaus, just host it at Mirafield village. That is his masterwork, you know?

This is a far less architecturally sound version of Muirfield Village. And I think that's what we can expect, right? Valhalla is like the PGA of America came to Muirfield Village and pinched in the fairways, grew out the rough, lengthened it, put the proper modifications in place to generate a single digit under par winning score and

Like I said, as a result, you get a worse version of some type of conglomeration between Muirfield Village and Oak Hill. I would put Bellarive in that mix after a long conversation with my friend Joseph Lovagna. I would throw Crooked Stick there.

host of the PGA that John Daly won in 1991 and host of the BMW that DJ won in 2016. In that mix as well, it's like if Muirfield Village and Oak Hill and Crooked Stick and Belle Reve had a baby, you'd get Valhalla. And a lot of those are some of the least popular.

advanced and thought-provoking major championship venues from an architectural standpoint that we've seen over the last decade. One more thing that I want to mention as it pertains to this golf course, specifically off the tee, because I've gotten a lot of, and I had a, again, I was talking to Joseph about this for a while yesterday, about like, is Valhalla

just total bombing gouge the way that Oak Hill was the way that, um, winged foot was, or is it closer to Mirafield village where Mirafield village actually really favors accuracy. Now,

Let's just think about how the PGA of America likes to set up its golf courses. Okay. So there's been this ever increasing trend of PGA championship setups favoring long hitters. And I would, you know, Valhalla is going to continue with that status quo, you know, since 2011, nine of the last 13 winners, top 25 and driving distance leading into their win. This is stat from my friend, Twitter list. Steve sent me the other day.

The only exceptions have been Brooks Koepka on live, who is plenty long off the tee. Phil Mickelson, certainly not short. He was 50th in driving distance. Colin Morikawa, not a bomber, but Harding Park was a non-traditional shorter setup. And Jason Duffner, which was at Oak Hill pre-Andrew Green restoration. And that pre-Andrew Green golf course was very short and positional. Now, there are two types of setups here.

that completely inhibit a bomb and gouge strategy. There's two types of setups where when I see this, I say, okay, this is all about power off the tee. This is best case scenario for guys that hit the ball far. There are golf courses like Winged Foot and Oak Hill where the fairways are so incredibly narrow and we're working with a 40 to 45% driving accuracy percentage that

That even the most accurate players lose any semblance of an advantage because they cannot hit the fairways either.

Now, in that case, the longer players don't even attempt to hit the fairway as there's little hazards in play for them off the tee. It's just to see if they're gruff and their ability to hack wedges out of thick rough reign supreme over shorter players ability to hit middle irons, middle to long irons out of thick rough.

And then you have courses like Vidanta Viarta and TPC Craig Ranch where the fairways are so wide, the rough is negligible and the missed fairway penalty is low. Thus, bombers can whale away with reckless abandon and simply have shorter clubs in. Those are the two types of setups, narrow fairways, thick rough, but no hazards like winged foot and no kill that

are good for bomb and gouge. And then wide fairways, negligible rough, no hazards like Vidanta, Vallarta, and TPC Craig Ranch. Those are the golf courses that are great for bomb and gouge. Those two types of setups. Then there's golf courses like Muirfield Village, which actually favor a combination of distance and accuracy. And how is Muirfield Village different from Oak Hill? Well, Muirfield Village is,

Still has thick rough and not a ton of hazards. It's just a sea of thick rough, but it has wider fairways. Now you're saying, why are wider fairways going to actually be better for accuracy? Because courses with wider fairway and thicker rough allow more accuracy laden players to gain back some of their advantage as more accurate players now actually have the ability to find the fairways and,

And less accurate players still won't. And short, inaccurate players at Mirafield Village still get killed. But short and accurate players actually have a chance of hitting the fairway with some consistency. You know, why did Denny McCarthy get into a playoff at Mirafield Village last year? As opposed to Wingfoot or O'Kill where, you know, finding the fairway is a coin flip for even the most precise players. And...

bringing this back to Valhalla, I think Valhalla falls somewhere in between Oak Hill, Winged Foot and Mirafield Village. The fairways at Valhalla, the driving corridors are a little bit wider than Oak Hill and Winged Foot. I think you're going to see a little bit of a, a little bit of a higher driving accuracy percentage is still going to be low, but the driving corridors are wide enough at Valhalla where finding the fairway is possible. Um,

There will be many players who simply give up on that proposition and just attempt to get as close to the green as possible, like Rory did at Oak Hill.

But the commonality on all of these golf courses, Valhalla, Oak Hill, Winged Foot, Mirafield Village, short and inaccurate is dead. And that's why I don't like guys like Cam Smith this week. And I would still far prefer the profile of a long and inaccurate as opposed to short and accurate. But with that being said, like the off the tee metric that I've created recently

For Valhalla is, you know, recent total driving with a heavier emphasis on distance over accuracy and performance off the tee on long golf courses with thick rough. So yes, I want great total drivers of the ball that are both long and an excellent form off the tee. But I also want to examine players that raise their baseline on long golf courses with thick rough Mirafield village, Oak Hill, Winged Foot, Olympia Fields, Bay Hill, Bethpage, Torrey Pines, right? So yeah,

That's players like Bryson, Rory, Keith Mitchell, who is my favorite 6K play next week because of that skill set. Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Adrian Marant, Cameron Young, Corey Connors, Andrew Shoffley, Scotty Scheffler. And even at Oak Hill, which turned into a lot more of a pure distance fest,

Off the tee was tremendously important and longer players such as Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Davis, Bryson DeChambeau were able to find their way into the top 10 on the pure strength of their power. And at golf courses such as Mirafield Village and Bay Hill where both power and accuracy are beneficial, total driving becomes even more heavily accentuated. And as previously mentioned,

Valhalla probably falls somewhere in between Oak Hill, Mirafield Village, and it's off the tee profile. So it's a long-winded way of saying you've got to drive the ball well. The last thing that I wanted to mention before we run through the model, there's not as many giant trends that I'm concerned with at the PGA Championship the way there are with Masters. But that week before performance, and that's why I waited—

A little bit later in the day to record, I wanted to get this out as soon as Quail Hall was over. So I still don't know how the tournament's actually going to finish. But I just wanted to see some of these guys like Cantlay and Hovland on Sunday morning. You look at the week before performance. This really surprised me that it was this stark. Brooks Koepka, 2023, finished fifth the week before. Justin Thomas, 2022, finished fifth the week before.

2021 Phil Mickelson breaks every trend, finished 69th, but he was the first round leader. Colin Murakawa, 20th. Brooks Koepka, 4th. Brooks Koepka, 5th. So for what it's worth, you know, Brooks does like to show us something. In his three PGA Championship wins the prior week, he's finished 5th, 4th, 5th. So obviously coming off a win and live Singapore. Jimmy Walker finished 28th.

Justin Thomas finished 28th in 2017. Jimmy Walker finished 11th. Jason Day finished 12th. Rory McIlroy won the prior week before winning at Valhalla in 2014. And if you go back even farther, of the last 18 winners of the PGA Championship, 16 of 18 finished top 25 the prior week before.

9 of 18 finished top 5 the prior week. 3 of 18 won in their prior start. So, you know, how is that applicable? 16 of 18 finished top 25 the prior week. Will Zalatoris, T60 this week at Quail Hollow. Shot an 80 in the final round. Tony Finau, T52 this week at Quail Hollow. Patrick Cantlay.

T32 the week before. Victor Hovland, T28 the week before. Kurt Kityama, or why do I care about Kurt Kityama? I just had him start on my leaderboard. Matt Fitzpatrick, T52. Wyndham Clark, T45. Justin Thomas currently T25. So he's hanging right on that fringe. It's just, you know...

You got to be playing good golf. You got to, got to be playing really, really good golf heading in here. So, you know, that's why I talked a lot about Victor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay in the Steve Bamford podcast I do. And, you know, those, those guys were my picks in December. Just,

a lot of discussion around the course fit element for Patrick Cantlay and Victor Hovland. And I still think when Victor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay are playing their best golf, it is a tremendous, tremendous course fit for both of those players. And both of them did play a lot better on Sunday for what it's worth. In fact, Victor Hovland on Sunday, Victor Hovland on Sunday, uh,

So far, you know, the leaders are kind of right now on their fourth hole right now. Victor Hovland first and tee to green at Quail Hollow on Sunday. First in approach play, 10th off the tee, 62nd in putting. He putted terribly today, 29th in around the green play. And if you want to take a very optimistic view of Hovland,

He was 65th in around the green play in round one, 64th in around the green play in round two, 14th in around the green play in round three, 29th in around the green play in round four. So, you know, the around the green play got a lot better for Hovland over the weekend. But guess what? It did right before the Masters, too. And I got tricked into that.

Actually, I didn't get tricked into that. I thought I was going to bet Victor or play Victor Hovland. And then I watched him at the practice run. I said, no, thank you. But I just wanted to call attention to how important it is to be playing good golf and how I'm kind of mechs now on can't lay in Hovland heading, you know, these two guys that I thought were absolutely going to be staples of, of my betting card, uh,

I haven't made a decision on those guys yet. I just don't, I don't think either are sharp enough to, I think if they're low owned, I'm very still interested in DFS based on the course fit. Do I see Cantlay or Hovland beating Brooks Koepka, John Rahm, Scotty Scheffler, even Rory or Xander? Like, I don't even think Hovland and Cantlay are on the same level as Rory or Xander right

That doesn't mean that they can't outperform Rory or Xander right now. But right now, based on their baseline, if you played the PGA Championship a thousand times, Victor and Cantlay aren't beating Rory and Xander upwards of 20-25% of them. If you just ran a sim on that right now. So I know there are better numbers on both of those guys. So you're buying the off chance that it happens, but...

You got to be playing well. You got to got to be playing well. And that's why I said Hovland and Cantlay were the two players I was most curious in watching this week. And I left feeling kind of meh on both of them. Like Hovland Sunday was awesome.

And like, that is enough for me to say, okay, I'm still, you know, probably maybe in on DFS, but to win T28, to win can't lay Sunday to like can't lay his ball striking this week was, um,

a little bit worse than Hovland's can't lay, um, did hit the ball very well on Sunday. He was sixth, uh, in this field and approach play, but overall can't lay, you know, a slight loser in both ball striking categories. Um, so, uh,

We'll see on both of those guys. They're both going to be in the 30 to 35 range. And depending on how I construct my betting card, both those guys are just now on the outside looking in for me. So let's run through my model. But first, let's take a quick break. Okay.

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Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. For

$45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. We are back. Let's run through the model. So this is all up on Betzberts.com, Betzbertsgolf.com. Code INSIDEGOLF to get access to my full breakdown of the model. I also break it down a lot more extensively in my Run Pure Sports article, which

One of the most in-depth RPS articles I've ever done. So be sure to check that out on runpeersports.com. But let me give you guys the top 20. Now I did my best with some of the live stuff. It's a little hit or miss, but I did a very, like some of these models that just aren't even looking at any live data. Like one of the great things about Bettsports too is like we have the data from the masters. A lot of sites are just punting on the data from the masters.

But if you're looking at some of these models and they don't have the lifts, if you're building on another site with no live data, with no master's data, I don't really know how you could accurately feel good about using that with any predictive value. But here we go. I feel very good about this one. I feel very, very good about my Valhalla course breakdown. So it's not going to be much of a surprise at the top. Scotty Shuffler, number one.

And let's have the Scottie conversation now. I suppose I'll talk through these players as I go through them in the model because I kind of already had the Rory conversation. Cardi kind of already had the Xander conversation, had the can't like conversation, had the Hovland conversation. I've spoken a lot about Bryson and Brooks kind of already had those conversations as well. But I haven't devoted much time to Scottie at all. And here's what I'll say about Scottie.

I still believe of the three remaining major championship venues, this is his least likely to win. I think it is going to be way easier for him to separate at Pinehurst than it is at Valhalla. Not that this isn't a tremendous golf course fit for Scotty Scheffler. But the combination of the fact that a player like Rory and Bryson can just turn their brain off...

And like Rory and Bryson are still, you know, better drivers of the ball than Scotty Scheffler. Um, Scotty Scheffler is just way more complete and has a much higher floor and a way better short game than both of those guys. And I think short game, I think one of the easier aspects of Valhalla, particularly compared to other PGA venues, um,

Valhalla is pretty easy around the greens. Like, and it's pretty easy on the greens. Like the degree of difficulty of the short game shots at Valhalla and the potting at Valhalla is way easier than Oak Hill. I mean, just mapping out this golf course, like the green complexes at Oak Hill. I mean, those are obviously Donald Ross greens with an Andrew green restoration, Jack Nicholas, uh,

does not come close to being able to design green complexes with the subtle nuances and complexity of a Donald Ross and Andrew green. So I think Valhalla is very easy compared to other PGA venues on and around the greens. And I think the golf courses where Scotty has the biggest advantage are not just the golf courses that are the toughest from a ball striking perspective, but also the golf courses that are toughest around the greens and,

That's why Scottie's so good at Augusta. And that's why I think he's going to be so good at Pinehurst because Pinehurst and Augusta are so challenging around the greens. And like, how did Scottie win the masters this year? He gained eight strokes around the green. Right. And I don't think that ability to separate is,

around the greens on Valhalla where guys with a substandard short game are just dead. That's part of the reason why I initially really liked Hovland at this golf course because I think it's pretty forgiving around the greens. He's not going to be able to separate with a short game on this golf course the way that I think he would have at Augusta or that I think he will at Pinehurst. Now, the baby piece, he just had his baby about, Meredith had the baby about

What, two days ago? I played Sam Burns this week at Quail Hollow, who had his baby, I think, what, a week before playing Quail Hollow. And Sam Burns has been bad leading in to Quail Hollow. And he just had a baby and is about to finish top 10 at Quail Hollow.

So I think Sam Burns, who is playing bad golf and just had a baby, kind of market corrects the argument of Scottie can't play well if he just had a baby. If Sam Burns in bad form can have a baby and then top 10 at Quail Hollow, I think Scottie could probably play well at Valhalla as well. But the odds are plus 400-ish.

He's 13.2 and DK 1200 clear of Rory. Um, I'm saving it for Pinehurst. Uh, and I was incredibly heavy on Scotty from a DFS perspective at Augusta. Um,

incredibly heavy on a DFS perspective at a lot of golf courses. I'm not an anti-Scotty guy. I hammered him at the players from a DFS perspective. I hammered him at the API from a DFS perspective. I hammered him at the Masters in DFS. I also...

Faded him in Houston in DFS. I faded him in Heritage at DFS. And guess what? The two weeks that I faded Scottie at Heritage in Houston, I actually had better weeks than playing him. And that's because the Scottie conversation cannot be viewed simply in the prism of,

I play Scotty. Scotty play well. I win money. If you still think it works that way, then please join my contest because I have been beating people that don't understand that. Kobe has been beating people that don't understand that all year and we will continue to. Scotty is a 13.2 golfer.

And yes, the pricing goes down deeper into the fives this week at Valhalla. But the question that you need to ask yourself is,

is at Valhalla. And, and, you know, I, the only reason I'm talking about Scotty from a, from a DFS perspective is because I think we can all agree. We're not going to bet Scotty this week at four to one. And although I, you know, I don't think Scotty at four, it's easy to say this in hindsight, but like I, I would going into the masters. I said this, if you're just a casual better, uh,

and are like i want to throw a hundred bucks on scotty chef on you know a hundred bucks to bet the masters what should i do i i said at the masters just throw it on scotty if i'm getting asked the same question by a casual golf better i don't think i'm answering throw it on scotty this week i think i'm giving you a couple guys you know top tier guys that aren't scotty to

parse out that $100. I wouldn't do it this week. I don't think I would. I get it. I mean, I think it'll be highly relevant. But the piece that you need to ask yourself from a DFS perspective is, can I build the best lineups with Scotty as my anchor? Okay, can I build the best lineup starting at 13k? And maybe the answer is yes, depending on how much you like the 5k range. I don't like it much at all this week. But

Like I'm going to be very heavy, presumably on some combo of Rory Brooks and ROM in DFS with zero with probably 0% Scotty, unless something changes over the next couple of days. And I even am, you know, thinking, should I go more balanced than that? Because I love Brooks this week. I love Rory this week and I love ROM this week. And even that it's,

You get kind of tricky with a stars and scrubs approach, which I did at the Masters, right? Like I played Scotty heavy at the Masters and did stars and scrubs at the Masters, but

And I had a fine DFS week. Like I'm in cash. Now I faded Scotty at the heritage and I faded Scotty at the Houston open. And I went super balanced at the Houston open and at the heritage. And those are my two, two of my best DFS weeks of the season was fading Scotty who finished first and second and playing super balanced and building these amazing

awesome lineups where like, you know, Akshay was my fifth man in at Houston, you know, and, and you, you can't do that with Scotty. If you want to, you know, if you want, I'll just give an example. I really liked Terrell Hatton this week. Terrell Hatton's not your fifth man in, in a Scotty lineup. You could build non Scotty lineups where Terrell Hatton's your fifth man in. Terrell Hatton's the second to worst guy in your, in your lineup. Yeah.

And you can't do that if you build with Scottie. So, you know, it's not just in a vacuum, Scottie, play well, I win money. And I hope DFS players understand that as well. If you don't, then that's why the edge still exists for us. But no Scottie for me this week, I don't think. Xander, Rory, 2-3 in the model, kind of already talked about them. Pretty heavy interest in Daily Fantasy. Rory will be a one-and-done play, obviously.

Can't bet them, not betting them. 10 to 1, 14 to 1, not betting them. Rom is interesting, and I'll hand up this one big time. Rom's number four in my model. I'll hand up this one big time. I got Rom really, really wrong at the Masters. Thinking that Rom was going to play great at the Masters was one of my bigger whiffs of the season. And...

I don't know what to do with him this week. I, it's another thing I was talking to a friend about yesterday about how, you know, Rom might've felt a little uncomfortable at the masters. You know, the, the masters is very anti live in terms of the establishment there. And maybe it was what a bit weird for him to show up at his first major championship after going to live. I don't know how much I totally buy into that. I think he's going to play a lot better this week.

I think if he creeps up to 17, 18 to one, I have heavy, heavy interest. So I'm thinking about what to do in daily fantasy as well. I still think that there is a universe where John Rahm and Scotty Scheffler are a lot closer than people think. And all he has done on live all year is finish top 10.

he's gained over two strokes, ball striking every single start on live. And you look at these types of golf courses, Mirafield village, Bell or Eve Olympia fields. He's the number one player in this field and strokes gain total at Mirafield village. You want to talk about hitting a controlled cut off the tee, you know, it's wrong. So, uh, second in this field, long golf courses with thick rough third and difficult scoring conditions. Um,

He's just had a lot of success on these types of tracks. And then five Hideki. I think it's an interesting leverage play. I think it's a great golf course for a decade. Just withdrew from Quill Hall. Six Patrick Cantlay talked about him. Great course fit. Don't know if he has it. Seven Shane Lowry. I think that's a kind of a sneaky DFS play this week. Eight Victor Hovland.

Talked about him already. Nine, Tony Finau. Don't know what to do with the guy. My numbers are... I got to adjust. My numbers are... I've had some good success on Finau this weekend. He was like the key to me winning a ton of money at Houston, but I was super heavy on Finau at the Masters, and I was, in full disclosure, very heavy on Finau this week at Quail Hall, and he murdered me. So I may have to readjust on Finau. I don't know why my numbers always love him. Ten, Morikawa.

I know he doesn't have that power, but really great on Nicklaus golf courses, like amazing at Mirafold Village, amazing at golf courses like Brookline. Good spot for Morikawa. 11, Corey Connors. Again, like sneaky, just one of those guys that breaks the mold and played very well at O'Kell. I love his ball striking. He's playing well at Quail Hollow. It's very heavy on him at Quail Hollow.

I think he can play well again this week. 12, Terrell Hatton. Love Terrell Hatton this week. He's been very, very, very solid from a ball striking perspective on live all year. Only two guys in this field to finish top 20 at Bell or Eve and Oak Hill. Brooks Koepka, who won both of them. Terrell Hatton.

13 Adam Scott, 14 Cameron Young, 15 Matt Fitzpatrick. Do not know what the heck happened with Matt Fitzpatrick this week. That was another miss by me in DFS. He did have a great Sunday. 16 Stephan Jaeger, who is just a great fit for these longer golf courses. Torrey Pines, Vedanta Veyar to TBC Craig Ranch, Houston Open, Memorial Park, long golf courses, driver-heavy golf.

Long irons. Stefan Jaeger is a great play on those. Wyndham Clark, 17. Sahith the Gala, 18. Ludwig O'Bear, 19. Will Zalatouris, 20, who I'm starting to really reconsider. I was kind of thinking about swimming around a 45 to one on Zalatouris. He shot 80 this morning at Wells Fargo. So a little bit back to the drawing board with him as well. Now,

The two bats, I've made one bat, Bryson 35-1. Made that a while ago, and I've talked about Bryson extensively. I still think that Bryson is, you know, he's still my pick to win this tournament. Wins at winged foot, one by five at winged foot, fourth at Oak Hill.

Um, Mirafield village one at Mirafield village. He's the best driver of the ball and live this year. He's gained over 1.5 off the tee and seven straight starts 7.3 off the tee at the masters. He's first in this field and driving distance first off the tee on long golf courses with thick rough. You know, these types of golf courses are completely Bryson's jam. It's a perfect setup for Bryson 27th that live Singapore. Not great.

That's probably the biggest concern is that he doesn't even fit the top 25 trend on live. Not great, but whatever. It's live Singapore. Six at the masters and this will, you know, six at the masters. I'm putting a little bit more stock into, to how Bryson performed at a live Singapore and Adelaide, which I don't think we're, you know, remotely as good golf courses for him, but still my pick.

As of now, I feel pretty good about a 35 to one. I think that number is going to settle in the 25 to 30 range. And I'm still cool with that. I'm still rolling with Bryson as my pick to win. Now, where I'm going after Bryson is where things get a little bit interesting for me. And the main conversation point for me is to Brooks or not to Brooks. Okay. Now,

Brooks, I'm seeing the best is 14-1. I don't even see any 16s right now. And 14-1 is a tough pill to swallow for me, even on Brooks. Even if in my head I think he should be the second favorite to Scheffler, just the fact that he was 20, 22, 18, 16, and I just—

sat with you know sat with my hands in my pocket just like an idiot while that number dropped and now i'm sitting here thinking about how he makes the most sense on the board and i don't want to swallow the 14 but i may end up doing it begrudgingly but the case for brooks is very simple okay bellarive o'kill beth page black bellarive he wins out on zoysia um

O'Kill, he wins at. Like I've said many times, this is like Memorial, Bellarive, O'Kill. Shades of Bethpage in there. He wins at Bethpage. He just won at Live Singapore on Zoysia. He's the number two Zoysia player in this field behind Justin Thomas. He's won at St. Jude's on Zoysia against Singapore, also Zoysia.

He's starting to putt better. He gains 3.8 off the tee at Live Singapore, 1.8 on approach, 4.2 putting. There's a tremendous correlation with Brooks actually showing it to us. His last three PGA Championship wins, he all finished top five in the prior start. This one he won.

When he came close at the Masters two years ago, he won in his prior web start. I know that Brooks in the past has kind of contended out of nowhere, but you really do want to see him playing well. And the vast majority of his best performances, he tells you, he does something in the week before. Again, top five in all three of his PGA Championship victories in his prior start. And he's the best U.S. Open and PGA player of the last decade.

Um, he went through a stretch, you know, in 21 us open and PGA championship appearances, Brooks has 16 top 25 finishes. He's got 11 top fives over his career. Brooks has got about a 50% top five rate and us opens and PGA championships.

And he went through a stretch from 2014 to 2019 where he finished top 20 in 12 straight of these tournaments. This, these types of setups favor Brooks more than any other player since maybe Tiger Woods. He's, he's the best us open and PGA player of our era. And the biggest case against Brooks Koepka this week is it's not that easy. Um,

And it feels like every single time Brooks enters a major, there's always one thing that you can say, Oh, here's a reason why he won't win. Right. Like even, you know, coming into Oak Hill, I didn't think he was, he wasn't a play for me at Oak Hill. I thought of multiple reasons why he couldn't win at Oak Hill. And I was wrong. Um,

Some of the past PGA championships, there's always like he'll always give you that seed of doubt because he's just not going to be the dominant weekend and week out player that he was, you know, that he is in majors. And I don't really know what the seed of doubt is with him anymore. You know, we have we have learned and understood that.

Even if he's not showing form on the PGA tour in the past or live on the past, like he raises his baseline on these majors. And when he is showing form on live on the PGA tour, like he almost is a lock to finish top 10 or contend. And right now he is showing form. Like he is, he's playing phenomenal golf on live at the moment. And I guess the biggest anti Brooks argument is that,

I was talking to a friend about this yesterday, and he's like, that's a crazy reason not to bet him. And I agree. It is a crazy reason not to bet him. But the best anti-Brooks reason is like, do we really think that he's going to get to six at 34 years old? Because if Brooks Koepka wins next week, he is a top 15 golfer of all time.

He's a top 15 golfer of all time. If he wins next week at 34 years old, is Brooks really going to get to six majors at 34 years old? Phil Mickelson had one at this age, one major. Okay. Phil, Phil Mickelson basically started winning majors by the time that Brooks is going to get to six. He's got 13 wins in his entire career.

And if he gets 14, almost 50% of his wins would be majors. But now he's in the class of Lee Trevino, six majors, 31 wins. Nick Faldo, 33 wins, six majors. Phil Mickelson, six majors, 47 wins.

And then you get Tom Watson. These are the only other guys with just as many major wins that have gotten to six. Tom Watson, Gene Saracen, Arnold Palmer, Walter Higgins, Sam Snead, Gary Player, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods. Are we going to talk about Brooks in that category? Now, you know, Brooks wins this one and you're no longer having Brooks-Rory debates. You're having...

Brooks-Phil debates. You're having Brooks-Tom Watson debates. You're having Brooks-Nick Faldo debates. You're having Brooks-Lee Trevino debates. You're having Brooks-Jean Saracen debates. Seven majors, geez. So just the concept of Brooks being thought of that way this soon

feels far-fetched. And that's the best I can do. That and it's not that easy. But sometimes it is. Sometimes it is that easy. You think about Rom at Torrey was the last time I can remember, oh, this makes too much sense. And Rom won. Rom won at Torrey. And I certainly didn't bet it. I overthought it. So

I'm not a – I'm pretty neutral on Brooks. I don't – I'm not a Brooks stan by any means. And I watched him up close at the Masters and I said, hey, he doesn't have it this week. This is a big fade for me. And –

you know, pending somebody from the practice rounds, which, you know, we can talk about in the RPS discord, we'll have some boots on the ground pending somebody from the practice rounds is like, yep. Brooks ate it this week. I have total confidence in his game right now. Like I think after the masters, you know, he talked about this on the pod on a pod, but he really was embarrassed by his master's performance. And he got, he got back to the grind big time after Augusta and, and,

Put together some really strong performances on live in the last two starts from a ball striking perspective. So I think there's a decent chance that the card will be Brooks 14, Bryson 35, and one other player that I'm going to talk about right now. And now this may surprise some people, but this was the guy that when I went through my model and I went through my numbers, I said to myself, wait a minute.

Why isn't this guy catching a little more steam? Why aren't we talking a little bit more about this guy? And I can't believe I'm potentially rolling out an all-live card, but I really like Joaquin Neiman this week. And I'm waiting till he's 40 now. I think I could even potentially get a 45 on Neiman. But you look at Joaquin Neiman and...

you know, Bellarive, Oak Hill, Muirfield, Olympia Fields. He's got three top six finishes. He's got a six at the Memorial. He finished third at Olympia Fields when Olympia Fields was playing really firm and hard. He's coming off a seventh in live Singapore where he gained eight strokes on approach. Okay. And in seven live starts this year, Neiman has six top tens. He's got a win at Mayakoba and a win at live Jetta, a third and a seventh on live in his last two starts. So Neiman has been

The best player on live this year. Neiman has been unbelievable on live this year. He's also mixed in a fourth at Dubai, third in Oman, and a 22nd at the Masters. The ball striking has been incredible all year for Neiman. Neiman has hit the ball on live this year better than any other player, both off the tee and approach. He's been hitting the ball as well as anyone on live. And he showed up. He showed up for work at every single tournament.

He's an unbelievable driver of the ball. He's got a ton of power, ninth in driving distance, tenth off the tee on long and difficult golf courses with thick rough. The approach play is a massive strength for him as well. He's coming off a week where, as I mentioned, he gained eight strokes on approach at Live Singapore. He's gained over 1.5 on approach in seven of his last eight starts with multiple performances where he's gained over eight on approach.

Neiman has been the best iron player on live this season and maybe is one of the best iron players in the world. And he's got a good, he's, he's, he's short game has been a lot better than like Neiman short game. Not that I think short game is tremendously important this week, but Neiman short game has been better than Bryson. It's been better than ROM. It's been better than Brooks.

And he's been putting pretty well too. And you look at Neiman's best putting performances, all three of his best putting performance of his career have come on back grass greens. Winged foot, Memorial, Greenbrier, Detroit Golf Club. He's been unbelievable on back grass.

And, you know, the short game has been really strong too. He's gained around the green in seven of eight starts. I think Neiman is like one of the most complete players in the world. Now, the only concern, and he has a perfect skill set for this specific golf course with his power off the tee and long arm play. Now, the only concern is he hasn't been good in US Opens and PGA Championships. He's got zero top 20s in 11 appearances. But...

I think there's some Wyndham Clark shades here. Like you look at Wyndham Clark and Wyndham Clark hadn't done deck in a major before winning the U.S. Open at LACC. He really hadn't. Obviously, Ludwig too. Like he shows up to Augusta on his first appearances and almost wins the thing, finishes second.

I just think we're in a different era with talent. And I believe in Neiman's talent. I believe that Neiman is as good of a player as Wyndham Clark. I really do. And I believe if you look at some of the lead-in stuff with the way that Wyndham Clark was coming in, playing, heading into LACC, it's kind of similar to a lot of the stuff Neiman is doing heading into this major at Valhalla.

and he didn't play great at the masters. He didn't play bad, but I thought there was a lot more pressure on him at the masters. Cause he had been talking a little bit more of a big game. He was, you know, people were talking about this chip on his shoulder and now it's kind of like, ah, you know, more people are talking about Taylor Gooch heading into Valhalla than they are about Neiman. I think Neiman's just kind of like flying in there a little bit under the radar. It's like,

One of the best players in the world on a great golf course for him. And everybody's up in arms about Taylor Gooch where I think Neiman could win this thing. So that's a bet for me. The two bets that I'm just waiting on a better Neiman number. The two bets for me at the PGA, Bryson and Neiman.

Shout out Liv. All the Liv stans are going to love this pod, but just call it like I see it. I think those are the two best bets on the board. I just do. And I really buy into this like, hey, we have this giant sample size of the best that the PGA Tour has to offer, not being able to do it with Scotty, where I still think that there is this element of unknown with

Bryson and Rahm and Brooks and Neiman where they might actually be like closer to Scottie than anyone else. They might be right there and they don't they haven't had the scar tissue of like watching Scottie kick their ass all year. Like if I'm Neiman, I'm like, sweet, dude, like cool, Scottie. Congrats on winning the heritage every week over a bunch of jabronis.

I have very little evidence that I can't go toe-to-toe with you. Bryson, Brooks, Neiman, Rahm, all those guys. Yeah, Scottie beat all of them at the Masters, but he's not kicking their ass every week, week in and week out, the way that's got to be pretty damn demoralizing for guys like Rory and Xander. Neiman and Bryson for me, and then...

If I bet Brooks at 14, that's the card. Brooks, Neiman Bryson. Wow. And if I don't bet Brooks, here's what it's going to be. It's probably going to be a ROM 20 if we get the ROM to 20. Or I'm just going to say fuck it with my priors and bet Cantlay and Hovland in the 30s and just say –

You know, they played well on Sunday, and my priors on them is that this is a perfect golf course for them. And just roll into the line of fire with, like, this Bryson, Neiman, Cantlay, Hovland card and hope that one of those guys just gets hot because they all are great plays on paper, great fits for this golf course.

None of them are Scotty, but I feel pretty confident that one of them will be there or, or I bet Brooks or I bet Brooks. So that will do it. I will be back on this podcast feed tomorrow evening with Kobe DuBose. That episode will be out Tuesday morning. Our draft Kings show. One of my favorites of the year. We're going to extensively break down the draft King slate until then.

Thank you for the support already this week, the Bamford podcast. I'm glad people have really enjoyed that. If this one helps you out any more so, please share it around on Twitter. We have a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. That stuff really helps me out a lot on weeks like this. I really put a lot of time and effort into these podcasts for the majors. And if they are in any way helpful to them, even just a simple –

you know, Hey, this guy knows what he's talking about or sending that to a friend or, or sharing it on Twitter. It, it, it really means a lot to me that that stuff helps more than you guys know. That is like, you know, my currency on, on weeks like this, it's, it's hopefully being able to take advantage of, of the growth on the weeks like this. So, um,

Cannot thank everyone enough for the support already I've received this week on the podcast I've done, and I'm going to keep grinding. This is the first of, or the second, I should say, of a lot more of me throughout the week where I'm sure my opinions will

you know, be even more bolstered as the week progresses. We'll do a Rumpier sport, ton of stuff at Rumpier sports over the week. If you want access to like, ask me questions all week and, and chop it up with me about specific golf stuff all week, Rumpier sports.com join that discord use code Andy for 15% off.

Um, and we'll do some free shows there as well. We'll have the, uh, the Kobe show on the podcast tomorrow and, uh,

bunch of other stuff on Twitter and you know with odds checker and an action network as well so best of luck with your bets the rest of this weekend enjoy the final round of the Wells Fargo go next and we will see you next time cheers drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are

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