2024 Memorial Preview
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This episode of inside golf podcast is brought to you by the rabbit hole on bets, Bert's golf.com. This is where I make my models. This is where I go to aggregate and accumulate all my data. It is a very helpful resource. If you are serious about betting and playing DFS golf, it has been for me, at least I credit it as a crucial piece in any of the success that I've been able to have. So if you want full access to the model that I make every week, uh,

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a massive discount on an already very reasonably priced product. So that's Bert's golf.com code inside golf to get you that 25% off discount, play around with it, check it out for the week. And you can always hit me up if you've got any questions with it as well. We're, we're adding to it by the week. Okay. Memorial. I'm going to get right into it. I've been on the road this weekend. I gotta be honest. I haven't been able to catch much of Hamilton, uh,

I caught a lot on Thursday, a little bit on Friday, not much today. But from all the golf I watched on Thursday, I love this golf course. And it played even better than I could have imagined and would have expected. I was pretty excited. If you listen to the episode of this podcast I did on Hamilton last week about the

a golf course that actually featured some interesting green complexes, right? And some elevation changes and some slope to it. And you see it clear as day about the difference that it makes when you have a golf course with really deep bunkers, both really deep. That was part of the problem with Valhalla too. It's another fairway bunkers felt like hazards, but this golf course has really deep bunkers and,

Both greenside and in the fairway, I love the nice touch of the taller grass surrounding the edges of the fairway bunkers. It gives like a very...

cool, rugged, classical feel to it that I think some of the newer golf courses that are so focused on being hyper manicured have done away with, with those edges and, and that thicker grass around the bunkers and just the difference that it makes in terms of the

testing professional golfers when they have to focus on because bunkers in today's professional game aren't really a hazard for pro golfers unless you make them incredibly deep.

And you create a surround around it where it's even more of a hazard than the bunker, right? And this golf course perfected that to a tee. And just watching players hit golf shots to uphill greens that have multi-tiers and a lot of slope to them and some subtle internal contouring. I mean, you've seen

so many putts missed. It feels like within five to six feet. It feels like three putting on these screens is in play. Anytime you actually have a 30 to 45 footer. And it's just proof again, that the golf course doesn't actually need to be long to test professional golfers. Like I think in terms of

atmosphere, environment, golf course, golf course strategy. I mean, Tommy Fleetwood talked about it a little bit today about how this was such a thinking man's golf course. And he loves these types of golf courses where it's not just turn your brain off golf. Like you actually have to plot your way around this golf course and make decisions. And

Good shots are rewarded and bad shots are penalized. And there's a decision matrix on the tee box. Like you talked about how there's some holes where I actually had to think about and talk about with my caddy, whether it was bomb away with the driver or lay up with the shorter club. So many of these golf courses on the PGA tour and at a major championship that we just realized watched are completely turn your brain off golf. No strategy hit the exact same clubs off the tee. Um,

And Hamilton, I think, proves that a golf course really doesn't actually need to be hyper long to or even hyper firm or even hyper windy. I mean, what I was so impressed with by Hamilton and why I think it's even I loved Colonial as well. Colonial blew me away, too. But.

Part of the major reason why Colonial played so difficult was because it was firm and windy. You had these brand new rock hard greens, and any time that you have brand new greens, they're going to play a lot firmer. And over time, the greens are going to settle, and they're not going to play as firm. So I think Colonial...

In time, that golf course is, we're not going to see it as firm as Wendy and it's going to settle. And we can, we can judge that golf course a little bit more with time and see how that plays in, in five years, seven years, 10 years down the road, because so much of the reason why colonial played so challenging this year was because of the firmness of its greens. What was so wonderful about Hamilton is, you know, it wasn't relying on length.

It wasn't relying on firmness and it wasn't relying on wind. And I know they set it up a little bit easier today, specifically on moving day, but each of the first two days, it played almost a stroke over par, which I think is kind of like exactly what you're looking for on the PGA tour. I think there should be some variety right now. We're way too skewed. We're too many. So many of the golf courses play, you know,

sometimes a couple of strokes under par per day and getting a little bit of a balance in there where we say, okay, Hey, a good benchmark for the average PGA tour of that probably should play around to even par, like a good golf course that plays around to even par is the type of golf course where you're

There's still the ability to separate. You still have a high possibility as well to get a bunched up leaderboard. And there's enough birdies available for guys to shoot low numbers and go low. But there's enough variance on the golf course and high leverage holes where bogey needs to be available on every single hole as well. And I think Hamilton...

played probably slightly on the harder end and then slightly on the easier end. And a lot of these golf courses, you can very much manipulate the scoring based on setup. Hamilton is a type of golf course where if you wanted it to play two strokes over par per day, you could do that. If you wanted it to play two strokes under par in a day, you could do that as well. And each setback,

would provide drama, right? Like an extremely hard version of Hamilton would be incredibly entertaining, incredibly high leverage golf shots to watch. And even an easier setup of Hamilton today, which I didn't get to watch a ton of it today. I just looked more so at the scores at the end of the day and caught a little bit at the very end. Just an incredibly watchable event. And I'm talking you can take out

the fans, which have been awesome as well. I think the Canadians clearly take a tremendous amount of pride in this event and really show out to this tournament every single year.

But just in terms of the golf course itself, the aesthetics of it, I thought it played really well on television. Like I spent some time watching the golf today with my girlfriend's dad and some of her family friends who I would say are very informed golfers and golf watchers, but they're not out there watching golf every single week on the PGA Tour.

Both of them were like, man, this golf course looks really good. Like I'm really engaged by watching these players hit golf shots on this golf course. Cause it plays really well on TV. You can really see the elevation changes, the green, I'm sure in person, it's even far more dramatic, but even through the television, you can really see some of the elevation changes and, and the multi-dimensional nature of some of the green. So, um,

You know, I'm, I'm tough. I'm brutally tough on some golf courses, but I also really take the time to highlight when I think something is awesome. And I would say when it comes to breaking down PGA tour courses, I don't know, 80% of that, 75% of the time, I'm, I'm not a huge fan of the golf course and, and,

I would say 20, 25% of the time. I really do like the golf course and, and Hamilton, in my opinion has been one. I genuinely hope that they go back here for Canadian opens for years to come because it's been a wonderful test of golf, great fan environment out there. Um,

And just architecturally and strategically kind of everything that I want for a PGA tour event. Right. And the players seem to have said the same things. I've talked to a couple of people out there covering the event on the grounds that has say it's been a rousing success and an incredible week. And just hearing some of the players talk as well, they're saying the things that you want PGA tour players to say is

in a competitive golf tournament, right? Which is like, this is not track man golf. I am practicing shots that I am unable to hit on the range. Like I have to navigate ways and be creative to get the ball in the hole. I cannot just, you know, hit track man golf shots and bomb driver on every hole and then figure it out. So a plus on Hamilton. Again, I think Valhalla was like offensively bad, I thought. And it's pretty cool that in the last two weeks, uh,

The golf has made up for it, at least in the criteria of what I look for in watching golf, which I understand I'm in the minority of that, of course. But I think if you're listening to this podcast, you know that already. And probably a lot of you feel similar, at least to the way that I do, about what you're looking for in golf courses and the type of golf courses that you enjoy watching pro golf on. So

Can't say enough good things about Hamilton. And I won't get to watch tomorrow. Unfortunately, I'm off to play a very special golf course tomorrow. Humble brag. Got to leave your phone in the car.

for that one. Um, but then I will be hopping. So I can't take any pictures of it. Um, and then I'll be hopping on the road, driving for six hours, uh, to go back home. But that's what I do. That's what brings me joys. I'm making these traps tracks to play some of the best golf courses in the country. And so this was one of those weekends for me. So I'm, I'm, I'm jazzed up. I'm fired up to talk golf. I've, I've done a fair amount of research on the Memorial, uh,

We have a lot of data on this golf course. I actually am excited to talk about this golf course. It is the best thing that Jack Nicklaus has ever done by a mile. So I hope Sam Burns can go low tomorrow. That would be phenomenal for me, but I'm bummed. I won't be able to get to watch after all the good things I've said about Hamilton, but let's talk about the Memorial. So

This tournament's been hosted at Muirfield Village since the course opened in 1974. Jack Nicklaus, you know, opened the golf course, designed the golf course. He basically wanted to create his own version of the Masters in his home state of Oklahoma.

Ohio all the way down to the way that he designed the golf course. It was modeled after Augusta in many ways. And the whole tournament was inspired by a lot of the traditions that the masters has as well. It has a, a yearly induction ceremony honoring past golfers. They get a plaque near the clubhouse. It's, um, and also similar to the masters. It's, it's always been a smaller tournament this year. It's going to be even smaller. We're getting, um, uh,

71 players in the field this week as of Friday afternoon. I'm sure somebody, whoever wins in Canada will be added to that field, but this is typically a golf tournament that's had around 120 players with a cut. And I'm not the biggest fan of, of the 71 player model. And to be honest with you, like I'll talk about in a second, like,

some of the reasons why I think Muirfield Village is awesome. I actually think that, you know, with Riviera starting to really give way to modern technology, I think this may hold the belt as my favorite PGA Tour event on the schedule. I still think Riviera is just like in a vacuum of a better golf course architecturally, but I don't think Riviera is a better test of pro golf than Riviera.

Muirfield village is right now. I really don't. So one of the things I'm super bummed about is like, you know, this tournament is going to start on Thursday and by Tuesday afternoon, like I'm going to be completely neck deep in Pinehurst research. Like I usually record my podcast, breaking down Pinehurst with Steve Bamford on a, you know, like Wednesday or Thursday of the week prior and,

It stinks because this is a golf tournament that the PGA Tour, and I get the signature vets. You want to build momentum into majors. You do them before. You do them after. I don't agree with it, but I'm sure they have their reasoning for why the schedule is the way it is, although that may be giving the PGA Tour far too much credit.

This is like maybe the best event on the PGA tour schedule. It has maybe the best history, one of the best histories. It has some of the best traditions. It's one of the toughest golf courses on the PGA tour. There's a lot of like historical context with it that they could talk about with Jack Nicklaus.

And this is the type of event that should be like in between the rocket mortgage and the three app. This is the type of event that when we're in the dog days of those brutal, you know, three M's and John Deere classics and rocket mortgage weeks, we should say, Oh wait, we get a break from that. It's Memorial week. Now it's the week before the U S open. And I don't know, I think I'm not necessarily saying it's a look ahead spot, but,

I think a lot of people are like, usually for example, on the podcast the week before major, I like to spend a lot of that podcast with my guest talking about the major, like talking about where odds are going to go, how this tournament relates in context to the upcoming major. And, and,

I think Memorial is a great enough event that it deserves more of a spotlight. Not that it's not getting one this week. I understand. I don't think that most of the golf viewers are thinking about it in the context of it being diminished just the week before it is a major. So maybe that's me. But in terms of somebody that covers the sport extensively, I really wish this tournament...

was in a different sentence than a major. I really think that this should be like the premier PGA tour event of the summer. I really do. I think that this should get...

And I understand the... Listen, it's called the Memorial, so it's supposed to be on Memorial Day weekend. Memorial Day weekend was last weekend. So if you're not going to have the tournament on Memorial Day weekend and the name of the tournament doesn't even matter, then you should just find the perfect spot in the schedule for it. Like, I don't know, between the US Open and the Open Championship, like in that stretch, that sleepy stretch of...

you know, those bank grass birdie fast that, you know, everybody's outside for. So, you know, it's just a great, it's a great golf course. And I've been fairly outspoken about my feelings about Jack Nicklaus's design philosophy. I think a golf course like Valhalla really brings out the worst in Jack Nicklaus's design philosophy, which is, you know, the,

a lot of empty calories and gluttonous excess at the expense of thoughtful strategy. Like when I think of Jack Nicklaus golf courses, I think a lot of a whole like seven at Valhalla or a whole like 13 at Valhalla where the goal of that golf hole was to make the golf hole look cool. And

There was no interest or thought in how the golf hole is going to actually play or if it is going to be an interesting strategic hole situation.

for professionals or even amateurs. The goal at 13 at Valhall was let's just move a bunch of limestone and create a propped up green. Do we care if we're watching players hit the same shot into it over and over again and there's literally zero strategy to this hole? No, we don't because it looks cool. And that has been my problem with Jack Nicklaus as a designer throughout his career is that

he's the type of guy that says, and same thing with Fazio, like let's put a waterfall behind the screen because it's going to be a good picture, but not put actually any thought into the strategy of this golf hole. And if we're going to get to watch players hit interesting golf shots on it, Mirafield village is like a, a lone stroke of brilliance in his career. And maybe Mirafield village is so good because he,

He did his best to copy like a lot of the design features of Augusta National. The Augusta National influence is so clear here, obviously. But and there's still I don't think it's a perfect golf course. There's still there's still a few holes that I don't love, but it's the best thing he's ever done. I mean, it's rated that way.

All the people I've talked to, I've never played it before. I'm dying to play it before. All the people that are in the architectural circles and have spent some time playing Mirafield Village and studying the extensive work of Jack Nicklaus' golf courses, I've played a ton, but far more than I have. There's pretty high consensus on Mirafield Village being his Mona Lisa, and I'm

in terms of viewing it, watching it on the PGA Tour. It certainly is Mona Lisa in terms of watchability and how it tests pro golfers. I think part of the reason why Mirafold Village is so good, first of all, the architecture is better. There's a lot of cool strategy to some of the holes.

But part of the reason why I think Muirfield Village is such a great test of professional golf, like I truly believe when I break down a golf course like Muirfield Village. And like I said, I understand that not all golf courses can be like this. But Jack clearly takes a lot of pride in this being professional.

a challenging golf tournament. And so, for example, like Patrick Cantlay shot 19 under here in 2019 and

and jack was like i gotta tear this place up he shot 19 under here in 2019 which is like a very standard winning score on the pga tour these days and jack was absolutely furious right and and the next year he made it super baked out and firm and rom was one of the only guys in in under par and then he he tore the golf course up and

I got to say, like, I, I really greatly appreciate his commitment and the, the renovation undeniably restored the golf course to its intended challenge. Like he talks about it a lot and,

This is a quote that he gave that I wanted to pull to far too many tournaments have eliminated the rough and firmness of the greens. And that is just not my idea of what the game of golf should be. So I'm going to stick with my old fashioned beliefs about how the game of golf should be played and the way that golf courses should be set up. The whole gamut of all shots is what the game of golf is all about. The game should challenge every facet of every club in the bag. Now,

Normal listeners of this podcast know that I do not think that

thick, rough and narrow fairways is the solution to everything. Right. I think there are some incredibly bad golf courses that just rely on having thick, rough and narrow fairways. I'm not the biggest Torrey Pines fan. I'm not the biggest Bay Hill fan. Uh, but what I think that Muirfield village village does perfectly is with right. And, uh,

That's what makes Miraflode Village so unique is that it's a wide enough golf course where accuracy actually matters. And the players who are really accurate can gain an advantage by hitting a bunch of fairways. And it's not the type of golf course that can be bomb and gouged or really distance obviously helps here because it's such a long golf course. But when you make the fairways so narrow, right? Like,

winged foot or oak hill um or tory pines even or bay hill even big hill to be fair tests a little bit more total driving but particularly a golf course like winged foot when you make the the fairways so narrow then it's just power power power power because even the most accurate players lose their advantage by being able to hit the fairways with any consistency so

But there's enough width at Muirfield Village that not only can you gain an advantage by being long, but you can also gain an advantage by being straight. And I think that a golf course that has some width and some room off the tee, but is also long and tests long iron play and has firm greens is

That is the best version of how you can test these guys. I don't think that Muirfield Village has the best greens in the world. I don't think it has the most fascinating green complexes. But when you have a golf course that is checking all those other boxes in terms of the

The length, it's a really long golf course. It's 7,600 yards. The thick rough and enough room off the tee where...

their strategy and players are actually tempted to hit the fairway and have a, you know, a lot of the time at Muirfield village, a 200 yard shot from the middle of the fairway is better than a 175 yard shot from some really thick Roth. Right. And that's not always the case on a lot of PGA tour golf courses. So I can't say enough good things about this track. I'll,

break down a little bit more of what I think really matters here. And then we'll talk about the players because there's a lot of guys I like this week. And I think this golf tournament, this golf course specifically, I think there's like a very specific way to break it down. I think there is definitely a lot of takes on this golf course. And I have my opinion on what you should look at. Not that any of them are wrong. There are a lot of times where it's one of the golf courses where

Every single year that I break it down and I dive into the numbers, I feel a little bit differently about it in terms of like what I actually think is the perfect pathway to success. But anyway, in terms of the actual renovation process,

Length was added to every single par five. All of the greens were reconstructed with this new back grass. They all now feature a sub air system, which is awesome because the greens are going to be at least pretty firm, even if there is rain in the forecast this week.

Many of the fairways were pinched a little bit and nearly every green complex is brand new. Fairway bunkers got pushed back on one 15 and 17 to account for players hitting the ball longer. So this became, I'll talk about how this, uh, track statistically, but this has become, you know, Mirafield village, uh,

Big time second shot golf course, still a second shot golf course. All Jack Nicklaus golf courses are second shot golf courses, right? Jack Nicklaus likes to make his fairways wide and the golf course to get more challenging the closer that you get to the hole. Typically the second shot on Jack Nicklaus golf courses are much more challenging than the first and

Muirfield Village is like even that out a little bit. Like I said, the fairways are still... They're perfectly wide at this golf course. They're wide enough, like I mentioned, where there's an advantage to being straight, but they're still...

they're still narrow enough now that it's a tough, tough driving course. Um, and since that renovation, you know, I think he's been incredibly successful in what he was trying to accomplish in the three years since the renovation, Mirafield village has played as the fifth, seventh and second most difficult course on tour last year. It was the second most difficult course on tour and that's including majors. Um,

The par fives, which he thought were too easy, played as the fifth toughest set of par fives on tour last year. It featured the toughest set of par threes on tour last year and the third toughest set of par fours and the fifth toughest set of par fives. And like I said, I used to think of Muirfield Village as an irons and short game course, but

But with the pinching in of some of the fairways and the repositioning of the bunkers, and this is some of the thickest rough that players will see all year on the PGA Tour.

Great total driving is now such an essential part of the recipe, and in each of the last three years since the renovation, Muirfield Village has ranked inside the top 15 in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, where in the past it ranked anywhere between 12th and 30th in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Ultimately, I mean, Muirfield Village remains...

A top five tee to green challenge on the PGA tour. It is one of the longest golf courses on tour, but you know, players cannot just aimlessly bomb away. It actually rewards accuracy more than it rewards distance. And it features small firm greens and the ability to flight long irons is, is,

so freaking important at this course. Like the ability to hit long iron shots, high long iron shots is more important at this course than nearly any other course on tour. It also features some of the toughest bunkers and greenside surrounds on the PGA tour. It's, you know, it's rare that the golf course the week before a major actually does an adequate job of prepping players for the upcoming test. But I think Muirfield Village is going to

Show us a lot about who's up for the challenge at Pinehurst. Maybe that's an unintended benefit is that our handicap at Pinehurst might be a lot easier because Mirafield Village and Pinehurst are very different golf courses. Like, you know, there's a lot of thick rough at both surrounding the fairways and around the greens at Mirafield Village and Pinehurst is a lot more sandy waste areas in the fairway and shaved off rough around the greens. Pinehurst is,

way more interesting greens in Mirafield Village and a cooler, wider array of short game shots. But...

Like, if you're telling me what's the number one thing that you have to be good at at Pinehurst, it's long iron play, like most US Opens, right? And controlling high long irons into firm greens. I mean, that is probably the most important thing at Muirfield Village, too. So, like I said, it's very rare that you're going to get a golf course the week before a US Open that all of the best PGA Tour players are playing where...

The things that you have to, there's a lot of nuances involved, like you're going to have to hit very different shots around the green at Pinehurst than you would at Muirfield Village. The chipping technique will be very different at those golf courses, but in terms of like the massive overhanging skill that is the giant cloud over both of these two tournaments of like.

elite long iron play you're you're kind of getting that back to back so um let's take a quick break uh we're about halfway through take a quick break and then run through a couple more things on the golf course and then there are a couple players that i want to talk about as well

We're driven by the search for better. But when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search, match with Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast.

Ditch the busy work. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. Leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day, Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences, so the more you use Indeed, the

better it gets. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed to hire great talent fast. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com slash bluewire.

Just go to Indeed.com slash BlueWire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash BlueWire. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here from Intmobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down.

So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. Mint Mobile, unlimited premium wireless. How did they get 30, 30, how did they get 30, how did they get 20, 20, 20, how did they get 20, 20, how did they get 15, 15, 15, 15, just 15 bucks a month? Sold! Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes in detail. Okay, we are back. So in terms of driving, you know, I've alluded to how...

driving is, is now a really essential part of the equation at, at Mirafield village. And in the three years since the renovation, it's ranked ninth, eighth, 15th and off the T difficulty. Um, and it ranks fifth out of 45 courses last year and miss fairway penalty. And each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top five in missed fairway penalty. We love that. We love golf courses that provide an actual missed fairway penalty. Um,

So particularly in the last three years, there's been a much stronger correlation in off-the-tee play. Like last year, every single player in the top 16 outside of Denny McCarthy, who gained 11 strokes putting, gained strokes off the tee. And this will be a huge week in terms of identifying players,

that keep the ball in play off the tee on courses with a high miss fairway penalty last year, 10 of the top 25 loss to the field and driving distance. You don't need to be a bomber at this golf course, nine of the top 25 lost in driving accuracy, but just four of the top 25 loss to the field and good drive percentage. So,

Same deal prior year, Billy Horschel, not always the best driver of the ball, still ranked fifth and good drive percentage. Two years ago, Patrick Cantlay lapped the field and good drive percentage. He kept the ball and play off the tee, which created a huge correlation in his ability to hit greens and regulation. He led the field in both good drive percentage and greens and regulation percentage and.

ultimately Muirfield village is a total driving golf course, right? Like I would rather have a player be both above average at distance and accuracy than elite at one, but terrible at the other players who are both short and inaccurate face an incredibly difficult path ahead. That's why Denny McCarthy has been so, uh,

shocking and kind of unsustainable in my opinion if that turns out to be you know low 7k or 6k chalk this week and we've seen longer players rank below average in distance hovland or below average in accuracy hovland and still win and very accurate players like horschel rank below average in distance but very above average in accuracy and still win right the safer bet obviously

the ROM and can't lay formula, right? Like why has ROM and can't lay been so good at this golf course? They, they're both ROM is the ultimate example of this, of like when ROM is on his a game, he is so long and he is so straight. And both of those guys are above average in distance and accuracy calling too. I mean, he's,

Definitely more accurate than distant than in than his distance. But whether a player is super long and can hack out shorter clubs out of the rough or a player is hyper accurate and is just going to be hitting a bunch of good long irons from the fairway. It's absolutely essential on this golf course. I cannot emphasize this enough.

to put oneself in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation. There's more of a direct cause and effect between strong driving and the ability to hit greens at Muirfield Village than maybe any other course on the PGA Tour because...

I mean, it's just data, you know, right. Because of the Delta in scoring from the fairway versus the rough and the length of the golf course. Right. So here's a quote from Patrick Catley. I like this golf course a lot. It puts a serious premium on driving the ball on the fairway, which is one of my strengths. I feel comfortable around here. There's a huge premium on driving the ball long and in the fairway. So yeah,

You want to look long and hard at total drivers of the ball, guys who raise their baseline on long golf courses with thick rough, guys who raise their baseline on golf courses with a high miss fairway penalty and are able to keep the ball in play on those golf course. This is a, I mean, this is why this is such a good Scotty Scheffler golf course, but it's a golf course that you can separate off the tee. I still think that iron play hitting long iron shots into these firm greens is a

still a little bit more important than driving, but this is, in my opinion, one of the most important tee to green golf courses on the PGA tour, right? Like you have a really tough driving golf course where players who are short and inaccurate really are behind the eight ball. And you have the statistically toughest approach golf course on the PGA tour. Like these are very, very,

Firm, small greens, 52% greens in regulation percentage last year. That's a little bit lower. Like last year it was super, super firm. And I think, you know, it's probably falls closer historically to like 56, 57%. It's still in the top six toughest greens to hit routinely on the PGA tour. But this combination of small, firm greens with a high plurality of long irons,

exacerbates the challenge so much more and then you get to around the green and this is one of the

and interesting examples of a golf course that, listen, I'm always going to be an advocate for short grass surrounding greens as opposed to thick rough. I just think that you're going to need to require so much more creativity and you're going to get to watch and see cool recovery shots more often than not from short grass and balls running into collection areas as opposed to if the ball just stops in thick rough areas

surrounding the green and guys actually are just able to hit that hack out shot over and over again. Mirafield village is like,

one of the few golf courses that I think can utilize thick rough around the greens. And it's still interesting and tough, right? Because the greens are so firm enough. I guess you saw this a little bit at Oak Hill too, but even Oak Hill felt like it had more runoff areas. And Muirfield Village does have some runoff areas as well. But some of these chips around the green out of the thick rough are

are so difficult like he he he keeps the rough so thick around the greens at merefield village and the bunkers are so deep at merefield village too it's it's features some of the toughest bunkers on the pga tour as well that like if you're if you're telling me that i'm going to have to have thick rough around the greens as opposed to a lot of short grass i'm

So Merrifield Village is the best version of this, in my opinion. And short game is brutal, like incredibly important here. Okay. It's going to be important. Anytime you have a golf course with a 50% greens and regulation percents, you could just do the math on that. Like,

50% of the time guys are going to have to rely on their short game. This is the highest weight that I have on short game at any golf course outside of Augusta, basically in terms of both degree of difficulty and just the volume of the amount of shots that you could be the best iron player in the field. You're still not going to hit, you know, 80, 90% of your greens here. You're still going to have to rely on your short game. And again,

It's tough. It's really tough around the greens here, like judging out of the thick rough. You know, you definitely have seen guys like Hovland, I think has really perfected. I've talked about this a million times before with Hovland, like Hovland has perfected that shot around the greens, the thick rough at Oak Hill and Olympia Fields and Mirafield Village and

He did it again at Valhalla, even though this is a way tougher around the green course than Valhalla. But, um, I think like to break this down to a super, super elementary level, this is like the highest weight that you want to have on just overall T degree and play like recent short game, long iron play and total driving. Um,

And I think it's the putting is, in my opinion, this is like a total team no putt course. Like I think that...

The greens, once you get on the greens are the easiest aspect of Muirfield village. And I just don't really have a lot of room for identifying great elite putters. You're always going to get a Denny McCarthy, any single at any single tournament, any single golf course, any year, but you actually run through the correlation of this leaderboard throughout the years between their T to green scale, their chipping scale, their total driving scale and their long iron play scale. And, um,

It is massive in comparison to putting like you, you listen to some of the quotes. These are probably the best greens that we play on all year. This from Jason Duffner, from the standpoint of consistency on speed from green to green. And then also just the consistency of the role. You feel like you get a really pure role. These screens are an insanely good shape. If you started on your line and your read is right, you're probably going to be holding a lot of pots and

So, and statistically as well, like 30th out of 45 courses in putting difficulty, every single other T to green category at Muirfield village is in the top 10. And in terms of short game, it's in the top three and it's the toughest approach course on the PGA tour. So this is like one of the smallest, if Denny McCarthy beats me, I'm happy to get beaten by that 10 times out of 10. Statistically, this remains the,

Like the toughest, most correlated big boy golf course in terms of tee to green play. And it's total driving. It's long iron play and it's short game scale chipping out of that gruff bunker play overall around the green play. Like this is tee to green top to bottom. Okay. So.

Let's run through the top 20 in my model. It's pretty chalky, as you can imagine, with a signature vet and the way that I just broke down this golf course where the things that I am valuing the most heavily are a

elite tee to green skill, right? Like total driving long iron play and short game. It's going to be a lot of the best players in the world, but there's some diamonds in the rough and some guys are really like, okay, so let's run through the top 20 of my model. Scotty Scheffler, number one, not a huge shock there. And I have talked often about

That whether you want to play Scottie Scheffler or not in DFS, because he's probably getting to the point every single week now where he's going to be 13.3, 13.4 and maybe close to 50 percent ownership. I think it is very golf course dependent with Scottie Scheffler. I think that he is very beatable on golf courses that make it harder to separate golf.

This is like, I may be the only thing about Mirafield village that I would like more for Scotty Scheffler was if there was more short grass around the greens outside of that,

It's pretty freaking perfect for Scotty Scheffler, this golf course. Scotty Scheffler is the best tee to green player in the world by a mile. He has the best short game in the world. He's the best driver of the ball in the world when you combine distance and accuracy, and he is the best long iron player in the world. That is Muirfield Village in a nutshell in terms of this golf course emphasizes those three things more than any other golf

golf course in the world. And I think that Scotty Scheffler is going to win the U S open. So I don't really know what to do this week with Scotty. Like I, when I was breaking down this golf course, I considered betting Scotty at three to one this week, which I never do. But when I ran through Muirfield village, I was like,

This over any golf course on the PGA tour from a statistical course fit standpoint should favor Scotty. Like I said, more than like any other golf course on the PGA tour outside of like, you know, Augusta and kind of Bay Hill and Pinehurst, like I said, coming up the fact that I think he's going to win Pinehurst next week and Memorial is the week before. I just, I still don't know what to do. Like I, I,

Scotty could go back to back. I think, I don't think that's a hot take by any means, but I think it's, I think it's a really tough position to be in as a better, because I don't think betters want, I don't think any better wants to hear like, this is the perfect golf course for Scotty Sheffield. Like no rational better wants to hear that. And we have two weeks in a row now where I think, um,

of all the golf courses that I break down all year, the best two golf courses all season for Scotty Scheffler from a statistical standpoint are Augusta and Pinehurst. I think Mirafield village is probably number three. I think Mirafield village and Bay Hill are probably three a or three a and three B. So don't know what to do. We'll see. Xander Shoffley is number two. Um,

He's the closest guy to Scheffler. He really is. If you really look at the numbers, he has a complete game. He does not have the around the green prowess as Scheffler, but he's got an amazing short game. He's a better putter than Scottie, and he's a little wilder off the tee. He doesn't have the accuracy as Scottie, but this golf course more than any other should separate the men from the boys. So...

And we saw Xander go back to, I don't think Xander's winning this week, but, and I don't think we're going to get like a floodgate situation with Xander necessarily, but we did see him go back to back two years ago. It's harder to go back to back at the PGA championship and Memorial than it is to go back to back at the Scottish open and the travelers or whatever it was for, for Xander. But yeah,

an unbelievable spot. I don't know. I think like if you're in a situation where Xander's 2k cheaper than Scotty and half the ownership, but it's a tough one. I got to see how they price these guys. Number three, Rory McIlroy week before major. I think that Rory makes a lot of sense this week at Memorial in the sense that

This is like the most important PGA tour event and he's outside of the players and he's never won it, but he's been incredible here. He's come really close a lot of times and it would feel pretty sacrilegious if, if Rory went his entire career without winning a Memorial. I think he will win a Memorial and he is the best player in the world the week before majors. So yeah,

It's a, it's an amazing top three this week. It really is like Xander. These are the types of golf courses where, um, the best players in the world really feel like they start on second base. Number four, Victor Hovland. Is he back? Absolutely. I absolutely believe that he's back. I don't know if he's just going to contend at the PGA and then win in his next start. Um, but yeah,

I've thought a lot about as I try and figure out a roadmap of, of like picking somebody else at the U S open to Scotty. I struggle with Hovland with a lot of short grass and creativity around the greens at Pinehurst. Like Valhalla isn't going to tell me that much about you around the green. Uh, Pinehurst will, I don't think that your short game issues are solved because, uh,

you gain strokes around the green at Valhalla. I think if Hovland's going to win, and I think he's going to win soon, I think that he's back. And from everything I've heard, like the Joe Mayo thing, it's real. He's confident. His ball striking numbers at Valhalla were insane. I think Hovland has a way better chance to win this week than the U.S. Open. I know that's not like crazy hot take because the U.S. Open has...

you know, camp Smith and Bryson and Brooks and ROM. But I think this is a better golf course for Hovland than Pinehurst. I just, in my head, I, I want to see like one more week of, of the good there with Hovland five Hideki, great golf course for Hideki, amazing short game six, Colin Markawa, uh,

who seems to be pretty close to back as well, right? Like this has been a phenomenal golf course for more call over the years. He's contended at both of the first two major championships. His short game has been unbelievable recently. So it's a pretty bulletproof case for Colin this week. Like I think a lot of people are going to go in the call and direction and, uh, I don't have an argument against it. Seven, Shane Lowry, eight, Corey Connors. Um,

just really accurate off the tee and his iron Corey Connors like the second best iron player in the world right now it's insane what Corey Connors is doing on approach

Ludwig maybe Ludwig is a little bit of the forgotten man this week although I do think that course history is like pretty important here this is a we haven't seen a newcomer finish top 10 in three years at the Memorial it's another nugget I wanted to add but you know when you finish second on debut at Augusta which is

the most correlated course history course by like two X. I think you got to throw some of those arguments out the window with Ludwig 10, Tony Finau, 11, Siwoo Kim, amazing golf course for Siwoo Kim. I love the way he's playing 12, Russell Henley. He's an amazing Russell Henley spot to 13, Patrick Cantlay, um,

which is like every single bone in my body wants to bet Patrick Cantlay because I think he's really due. And this has been an amazing spot for, for Cantlay. His T degree in level is, is not close right now to like, even it's not close to Scotty and Xander and Rory, but,

it wasn't anything close to like the numbers that a Hovland or a Morikawa were putting up at the PGA championship. So I don't know. There's like something in my bones that always thinks that I can't lay is really close. And he's just too good of a golfer to not win soon. And he may be the direction I ultimately end up going. But from a statistical standpoint, I,

more kawa is like market correcting can't lay in every single way like if you're betting can't lay over more kawa this week it's just because you feel like can't lay is going to beat more kawa this week more kawa market corrects can't lay and everything um zander rory i mean hovland depending on your sample size is market correcting can't lay from a td green standpoint uh

14, Max Homa, kind of a good flop lag spot coming off a disappointing two days at Colonial. Probably won't get there, though. 15, Matt Fitzpatrick. 16, Wills Alatorre. 17, Keegan Bradley. 18, Benny Ahn. 19, Justin Thomas. 20, Cameron Young. So, you know, like I mentioned, I...

it's a tough it's a tough spot for it's a tough spot to know what to do with scotty at the end of the day i'm not gonna bet scotty at three to one to win the memorial so if you're going in the non-scotty direction um and the non-zander and rory direction which i will be doing i i really do think you want to probably anchor with hovland or morikawa i mean those to me make the most sense um

And if you don't want to anchor with Hovland or Morikawa, I think there are a ton of awesome options that you just hope for the best. And my favorite options on this golf course are if I'm going to take some chances farther down the board,

Fitzpatrick, Siwoo, Henley, Benny on like, you kind of can see one of those guys. All those guys are way better golfers than Denny McCarthy, but it's been tougher in recent years, but you know, you have seen some interesting things just happen at the Memorial, right? And it is the week before a major, you know, Rory's obviously dominant the week before a major, but you,

Sometimes you will get the occasional stinker from an elite player the week before a major that will be like three over through their first six holes. The thing that's kind of cool about this event, though, is you got to play all four rounds, right? There's no cut 71 guys. So if I'm not going in the Hovland, Morikawa, or any of the Sheffield or Rory Zander route,

This is a perfect Matt Fitzpatrick spot. He's been driving the ball a lot better than his numbers would suggest. He drives the ball really well at Memorial, so maybe this golf course just fits his eye off the tee. He's still got an amazing short game. He is one of the best scorers.

thick rough around the green players on the PGA tour. Like he is so good at scrambling on thick, rough golf courses. That's why he's been so amazing at Bay Hill. And he won a U S open at the country club, which had a lot of thick rough around the greens. And he's got a ninth and a third at Memorial. Um, he's still a great bank grass putter. He plays well on par fives. He ranks fourth in this field on long and difficult golf courses. Like

this golf course is going to play tough. I think, you know, if you can get to 10 under par, you gotta be feeling Hovland won it last year at seven under par. Right. And I know that he missed the cut at the PGA, but he still gained over a stroke in both ball striking categories. And he just lost a bunch of strokes, putting right. The, the off the tee and approach got better for him. And he's kind of popped his head out a lot of times this week, but hasn't really popped. And he,

I just feel like Fitzpatrick is the type of guy that can go through stretches where he's a average golfer from time to time and he can miss a lot of cuts and be super disappointing. And then,

every six to 12 to 18 months, he's going to win a big tournament. You know, his last two tournaments that he won and he's won six other times in the DP world tour, but you know, a U S open and a signature event. And he's just the type of guy that if you bet, anytime I bet Fitzpatrick at 40 to one, I feel pretty good about that ticket. And I don't know what his odds will be, but I just have a,

I still have a feeling about Fitzpatrick this week at Memorial. The other guy that I wanted to mention, oh, I didn't write this guy down too. I really love Zala Torres here. Such a great driver of the ball, great total driver, still a great long iron player. He's seventh on these long and difficult golf courses, great on golf courses with a high missed fairway penalty.

um he's been great on backgrass like you know there's so many players talk about the these are way easier greens than augusta but you think about some of his best putting performance that are on these smooth perfectly pure backgrass greens at augusta and he's another guy who was coming off like a a ho-hum pga where he finished 43rd but he gained three and a half strokes and approach and i just think there's value there like i i

Again, like I think this is such a perfect golf course for the best players in the world to separate. But if you're trying to have some fun and find value farther down the board, I think Salah, Taurus and Fetch just provide a lot of value. Like those are guys at the thirties and forties and 45s to ones that I feel like if they're around on Sunday, I at least have a chance. And then in terms of like longer shot guys, you know,

I said after watching Benny on at the Masters that he was going to win a tournament this year. I've spoke about this on podcast before. I talk about it a lot more in the RPS Discord. I've gotten pretty close with a friend of Benny's who played junior golf with Benny. They went to IMG Academies together. And so I've kind of gotten like a lot of this Benny pipeline just –

a lot of noise and notes about how confident he's feeling this year and how well he's actually playing. And a lot of those things that I was hearing past the eye test, when I watched him at the masters, like I, again, I've talked about this on podcasts before, but I,

Benny on was one of the biggest blow me away. I test golfers that I've seen in a really long time in terms of the way that he drives the ball. And obviously the stats back that up. He's one of the best drivers of the ball in the field on the PGA tour in golf right now. And, you know, this is a great golf course to emphasize that I've, I've said a bunch of times that Benny's really close and he's going to win this year. And you just got to wait for the right golf course to,

I wish this was a weaker field, but this would be the golf course, right? Like I, I don't know if Benny has what it takes to stare down Scotty or Rory or even Hovland or more. Kawar Zander on a Sunday, but this would be the golf course for Benny. Like emphasizes hitting the ball. Benny hits the ball. So freaking high. Okay.

He emphasizes long and straight driving, emphasizes being able to hit high, long iron approach outs. Benny has a sneaky, really good short game. And the biggest weakness is his putter, which I think is strongly devalued at this golf course, comparatively speaking to the other Tita Green skills. And, you know, again, coming off like an average 43rd at the PGA Championship, to be honest with you,

You know, Benny said, I asked, I said, what do you think the winning score will be at Valhalla this week heading into the PGA? And Benny said 10 to 12 under.

And, you know, he shot a score at Valhalla that, you know, put him kind of right close to 10 to 12, 10 to 12 under if, you know, he would have been right there if you needed 10 to 12 under to win that golf tournament. And it kind of had me thinking like Valhalla turned into so much more of a putting contest than I think a lot of us expected. And, you

maybe this is the golf course, right? Like the, the golf tournament that you have to actually win at 10 to 12 under is the one that Benny's going to win. I don't think you want him in a situation where he needs to make a million putts. So that was a good sell to myself even. So, I mean, I, it's hard to, as you know, as the RPS discord guys know, like Benny has just kind of, I've been riding for him a lot this year and I,

I think this is pretty damn close to a perfect golf course fit for him. Henley and Siwoo too. Like I think both those guys are really, really awesome long shots. Like,

Siwoo is playing so well right now. He has turned into such an awesome long iron player. He's such a straight driver of the ball. He's got four top 20 finishes in a row at the Memorial. And he's gained strokes in all four major tee to green categories in three straight starts here. So this golf course fits his eye off the tee. He keeps the ball in the fairway and is a great long iron player. He's got a great short game and

And the biggest weakness is the putting, right? And great course history. So it's like, there's actually some really amazing farther down the board options that I guess make you feel a little bit better about the fact that this is such a perfect Scheffler golf course, right? Like, I think those are some strong cells to myself, just hearing me talk about them again. Like, I think I may end up

just rolling with Fitz, Zalatoris, Siwu, Benny on hoping for the, and hoping for the best. Russell Henley too. Like, I just want to say one thing about Russell Henley. He's a, he's a statistical darling in terms of like a data, data golf always loves him. I always love Russell Henley. He's the perfect type of player that he just, the statistics love him because he's such a good iron player. And he's,

He tends to have better stats and play better than he scores in some of these tournaments. Like...

If you look at some of the long iron stuff and the way that people create models and the way that data golf utilizes some of their models and their course fit rankings and things, Henley is always going to be an over performer because he does so many things well, but has a difficult time lining them up all in the same tournament to like win a bunch of golf tournaments. But yeah,

God, you look at the way Henley's playing. He's coming off a 23rd at the PGA where he gained 4.5 on approach, 3.5 around the green. Like that's the reason why I think Siwoo, Benny on and Russell Henley are such great long shots this week that actually can win because all three of those guys are

Drive the ball in play. Benny is long and straight. Henley and Siwu are just straight. Are great long iron players and all have a really good short game. Like Henley is the number one player in this field chipping out of thick rough. He's the number two bunker player in this field. Henley has an amazing short game. And you think about the things that kill Henley and kill Siwu and kill Benny and

It's putting. It's putting. They're great tee-to-green players. And Henley's been good at the Memorial as well. So...

That's a fun five-man card to go to battle with, right? Fitz, Zal, Siwu, Henley, Benion. Probably don't have a winner in there, but man, my data loves them. So that will do it for me. Went a little bit longer talking about guys at the end, but I had a ton to talk about with this golf course. It's a really fun golf course to handicap and

break down and and like i said i wish this golf tournament was coming in between a john deere classic and rocket mortgage and i could really give it its proper due instead of like getting myself into a bunker on tuesday and wednesday night deep diving pinehurst but um excited to to have a ton of golf on in the weekend as i research pinehurst this is a awesome awesome event and uh

Enjoy the golf tomorrow again at Hamilton. I'm not jealous because I get to, I'm playing golf myself tomorrow, but I, I'm bummed because it would have been one of the Sundays on the PGA tour that I would have been more excited about in terms of like how they set up the golf course and what players go backwards and forwards. So I think it's going to be fun to watch tomorrow. Enjoy the golf tomorrow.

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