2024 Masters Betting Preview
01:24:38 Share

We're driven by the search for better. But when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search, match with Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast.

Ditch the busy work. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. Leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day, Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences, so the more you use Indeed, the

better it gets. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed to hire great talent fast. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com slash blue wire.

Just go to Indeed.com slash BlueWire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash BlueWire. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. This episode of Inside Golf Podcast is brought to you by The Rabbit Hole. The Rabbit Hole is the most...

comprehensive, accurate, and easiest, most user-friendly, in my opinion, tool model builder out there. Some really shaky data out there. It's important to make sure that you're getting it from the right place, which is why I wanted to partner with Ron and the gang over at Bettsbertsgolf.com

They are incredibly thorough. We are adding to it by the day. There are a number of tools that I think might be very helpful for your master's research, which is, you know, I'm sure I can walk through some of them on this podcast. So I'd recommend signing up for the week right now. This is where you can access my model. It's up on BetSportsGolf.com right now with code INSIDEGOLF. It is great.

$5 for the week. Obviously, the better deal is for a year, but I know there are a lot of casual Masters bettors out there that just want to focus on the big ones. If you're trying to get into this a little bit more seriously about...

upping your DFS and betting success. Uh, I would recommend a longer term commitment just in terms of the deal. Uh, but for master's week, I mean, you could get everything you need masters wise from a statistical and data perspective for $5, uh, which is absolutely crazy. And I found this tool to be one of my biggest edges in terms of being able to look at

and congregate numbers in this way. So head on over to BettsBirdsGolf.com, type in code INSIDEGOLF when you sign up to get a 25% off. A ridiculous discount will not be around forever. So sign up today. That is code INSIDEGOLF. Same name as this podcast. And we would love to have you as part of that squad over with the Betts Birds Golf Team. Okay, one more thing before we get into it. Masters Giveaway.

I'm in Atlanta right now. I've spent the weekend here. I'm recording this on Sunday morning around 11 a.m. Eastern time. Apologies that this was out, not out late on Saturday evening. I needed the extra night of research. I've gotten super in the weeds with live data.

Trying to figure out that stuff because it matters. And we'll do a pretty comprehensive breakdown of some of the live stuff that I'm seeing and how that would affect how you should feel about some of the live players heading into this week. So apologies that this is coming out a little bit later on Sunday morning than the usual midnight Saturday night. But the point is I'm down here in Atlanta.

Great city. A lot of people on Twitter were kind of mixed on it. I don't know. I've had a great experience. And, you know, to be honest, I have spent most of my time here locked up in a hotel room figuring out Jon Rahm's Long Iron versus Short Iron play stuff. But I had a couple of nice meals. I'm enjoying Buckhead, the...

The big Lenox Hill Mall. It's kind of like the Westfield Century City of Atlanta. If you're familiar with Los Angeles, you will understand that reference. But anyway, I'm driving down to Augusta tomorrow morning. So I will be at the Masters Tuesday through Friday. So as a thank you to you guys, because this podcast...

continues to grow beyond what I had ever expected for it. I'm very grateful you guys keep having interest and

What I have to say about these golf courses, these players. So here's what you got to do. Leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. That's it. Just make sure that you leave your Twitter handle or email in the review. I will get in touch with you on Monday or Tuesday, probably Monday. And you just tell me whatever it is that you want from the Master Store. I kind of wanted to personalize it in the sense that

Figure different people would want different things. People are different sizes, but whatever you want up to like, I don't know, 200, 300 bucks, a couple hats, a sweater, picture, some mugs, whatever gear that you may have interest in from the master store. We will communicate though, and I'll get you hooked up. And if you would just rather...

have cash if you win, I will send you that too. When I do giveaways, which is rare once or twice a year, but obviously a special bit of a singular experience this time with me going to the Masters, I always want to give people the option to just select the give me cash instead. But a lot of this Master stuff, that's why I think it's a good week to do it. You can't really get it. It gets marked up like crazy on eBay. People just swindling. I mean,

Kind of tip my cap to those people that just raid the Master Store every single year and then mark it up for 3x the price on eBay. But yeah, all you have to do, just leave a review on Apple Podcasts. Leave your Twitter handle or email in the review. I will be in touch with you on Monday or Tuesday. And yeah, that means a lot to me. Again, weeks like this, this is my Super Bowl weekend.

This is always my most downloaded episode of the year. So the more that you can share around it, it means the world to me. All right. That's it from the top. Let's get into it. So on this episode, it's going to be a little bit, a little bit on the golf course, not a ton on the golf course. If you want more stuff on the golf course, you can check out. I did 90 minutes with Steve Bamford where we did a fairly thorough and comprehensive breakdown on a lot of golf course stuff. This podcast is,

I'm just going to go over the main fundamentals, the things I care about. I've got seven quick things that I think really matter this week in terms of golf course related. And then quickly on the weather, we've got some weather to talk about this week. And then mainly talking through the betting board. This is going to be a betting show. This is not a DFS show. I will cover the DFS side of things later.

Again, my tradition of having Kobe on late on Monday night. We're both going to the Masters. We might do the show in person if I could figure out the tech side of that. Probably not. But this show is going to be a little weather, a little trends and angles, and then talking through the betting board. Going to try and give...

at least an opinion on every player in this field from a betting standpoint. So let's dive right in. Masters, the first major championship of the year. It's held...

annually in the first full week of April, always at the same golf course. You know it well. I know it well, too. Augusta National Golf Club, private golf course in Augusta, Georgia. The field at the Masters is smaller than any of the other three majors because it is an invitational event composed of about 90 to 100 players. I think we've got

92 in the field this week. Again, I'm recording this on Sunday morning, so we'll see. We may have Akshay added to that Masters field later this evening if he could close the deal out in Houston. After 36 holes have played, there is a cut. Top 50 in ties will advance to the weekend. One of the easiest cuts to make all season in golf, particularly when you look at the back end of this field.

uh, still a lot of, you know, your Jose Maria Olathables and your Fred couples. Uh, so the backend of this field gets pretty weak. It's generally pretty easy to make the cut here. Uh, and we'll talk about how that pertains to the DraftKings side of things on the Monday show with Kobe. Uh, but mainly in terms of this golf course, uh,

We have had John Rahm win here last year at minus 12. Rahm was 9-1. We hit that. That was a big win. And the conditions of this golf course over the last couple of years have changed a lot. Now, a lot of that is because we get different weather every year, which I'm going to talk about how that specifically pertains to this year.

But in terms of the big notable changes, I think every year at Augusta National, there's death taxes and there's a few subtle changes to dissect each year at Augusta. So over the last three years, I just want to run through how the golf course has changed over the last three years. In 2022, the 11th hole gets a new tee box.

The par four is now lengthened to a whopping 520 yards. The fairway was re-contoured and widened by up to 15 yards. The trees on the right side of the hole were removed. The first cut was removed and replaced by more short grass, which actually penalizes wayward driving even more. It kind of actually allows balls to roll out to more disadvantaged positions with the extra short grass in there.

We also saw in 2022, the par five 15th was lengthened by 20 yards with some more recontouring to the fairway, more short grass replacing the first cut on nine and 10 new green surface added to the third 13th and 17th. And then last year in 2023, we,

The big notable change was the par five 13th, the famous 13th hole, maybe the most famous par five in golf, at least up there was lengthened with a new tee box, adding 35 yards, making the decision to go for the green and two little bit more difficult with the added 35 yards. The hole did not really play any more challenging than in years past. Although if we get firmer and drier conditions this year,

We could see it play a little bit more challenging. Remember last year it was pretty wet. We had some weather. And then this year, the main notable change is the tee box on the par five second has been extended back into the left by 10 yards in an effort to bring that right fairway bunker more into play. The second hole is,

Played as the easiest on the course last year, and I would imagine the new tee box on number two is a bit of a response to this. And overall, I mean, the golf course is truly magnificent. I could write 10,000 words and talk for two hours on this.

the magic of Alistair McKenzie's greens alone, I do believe he remains the greatest golf course architect to ever live. The course has changed tremendously since McKenzie's original outline, but the tournament organizers, the committee over at Augusta National that set up the golf course every year,

have done a pretty excellent job of keeping pace with modern technology. Obviously, they have the resources to do that and buy up more land, but still much easier said than done with how far players hit the ball these days. And depending on whether the course still generally plays well,

one to two strokes over par every year. I mean, the COVID November masters was the lone exception. Last year we saw a slightly softer golf course would have been less wind than in 2022. And the course played nearly a full stroke easier, uh, than the prior year, but still Augusta held up and produced a 12 under par winner, uh,

Rahm won at 12 under over Phil and Brooks by four strokes. Only 25 players finished the week under par, and it ranked as the sixth toughest course last year on the PGA Tour. And I write every week about the three to four key pillars of every golf course that we see week in and week out on the PGA Tour. And Augusta is somehow simultaneously the easiest course

and also the most complex course to handicap, right? It's the easiest in the sense that it possesses the strongest correlation of course history on the entire PGA Tour by a mile. And it's also complex in the sense that, you know, I could make the argument for 800 different stats that provide value this week. But if I was to oversimplify and rank the seven most important keys to success at Augusta National,

This would be my order. Okay. These would be the seven things that I would focus on more so than anything else this year at the masters. Number one, in order of importance, I think this is the number one most important thing to live and die for, uh, from Augusta national course history slash experience. Um, there's a reason why Fred couples, uh,

can make the cut every year in his 50s. There's a reason why, you know, Ozempic Phil finished T2 last year in no form. There's a reason why we haven't seen a first-time winner since Fuzzy Zeller. I could talk a little bit more thoroughly about this a little bit later, but there is a on-the-course nuance element to this in terms of

how tricky these green complexes are and how, how you have putted at Augusta in the past is far more highly correlated to how good of a putter that you are just in general. Like you think about there's all of these examples of guys, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Will Zalatouris,

Hideki Matsuyama of players that week in and week out on the PGA tour. They're not great putters, but for whatever reason, they've been able to figure out the greens at Augusta national. Right. And that's why I think in terms of like stats and numbers this week, there's some putting stuff that I think is valuable in terms of like performance on fast greens, performance on undulating greens, performance on back grass, um,

But the true indicator of how you're going to putt at Augusta National is how you putt at Augusta National, right? It's not as much one of those golf courses where you want to look at a player's incoming form as much as you want to look at how they've had success on these greens in the past because it's such a unique and singular experience on the greens. And I've talked about this as well in a number of podcasts.

I'm probably going to get a much better sense of this when I'm at the practice rounds, Tuesday, Wednesday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. But you hear players talk about so many times every single year about how this week is so unique and singular and so different from a routine standpoint from every other week on the PGA Tour. You hear players talk about how

In some cases, I don't think Rory still figured out what to do, but it's taken players four, five, six, seven, eight, nine times to figure out their routine heading into the Masters, to figure out what to do. Because as debutantes have talked about in the past too, you get on property for the first time, it's so overwhelming, and you just want to play the golf course, you want to take in the golf course.

You want to play as much golf as you can Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. Guys don't know whether or not they should be playing the par three contest. And then you hear players talk about, you know, after their fourth or fifth or sixth time playing the Masters, they figure out exactly what their sweet spot is. And that's going to differ from player to player. For some guys, it's

It's arriving late on Tuesday night, playing nine holes. For some guys, it's making six different scouting trips in the couple months prior and then not playing a bunch the week of. For some guys, it's playing 18 holes on Monday, nine holes on Tuesday. But the main point is,

And this is why we see data golf has a nice graph of this, of like the sweet spot of when players peak in terms of their performance, uh, at the masters based on how many times they've played the masters. And the sweet spot that you really want is generally you see an uptick in strokes gain between like their fourth and 10th appearance. Um,

It's usually pretty low in the first two or three, and then you get to four through eight appearances, and you kind of hit that sweet spot, and then you get the reverse, the inverse of that as you've played it over ten times. It gets way harder to win.

Because the scar tissue builds up, the bad memories build up as well. And you start maybe getting in your head and overanalyzing what your preparation should be after you've done it so many times and still not had the success. But if you're just telling me what's the number one most important thing in a guest national, it's experience and course history.

Not just because of the nuances of the golf course, because of the unique singularity of this week and what that entails and how overwhelming that can be to first timers. Number two, mid to long iron play. Okay. A whopping 75% of approach outs come from over 150 yards at Augusta National. And the old saying that everyone talks about with Augusta National being a second shot golf course is,

Guess what? It's true. I can talk about on this podcast a number of narratives that I don't think you should put as much stock into as others might suggest. But one that is absolutely true and holds up statistically from a narrative standpoint, from an eye test standpoint, from a statistical standpoint.

This is a mid to long iron golf course. Okay. There are a number of reasons for that. The fairways are incredibly, incredibly wide. You have a 75% driving accuracy percentage at Augusta national. These fairways on average are about 17 yards wider than the average, uh,

fairway on the PGA tour. So what happens when every player is hitting the fairway at a higher rate? The emphasis falls on the second shot, right? Because more guys are playing from similar spots in the fairways. And so how do you separate yourself? You separate yourself with the second shot.

it's harder to separate off the tee on this golf course than it is to separate obviously with the second shot. So mid to long iron play is huge. It's huge. It's the number one stat. It's the number one golf stat in terms of how players are hitting their irons, their long irons coming in. That means the most to me this week. Number three,

creativity around the greens slash scrambling off of short grass. Okay. So Augusta features the number one, most challenging green complexes on the PGA tour, and they are surrounded by closely mown areas. So you get the combination of a lower greens and regulation percentage, and suddenly you're in a situation, particularly if we see a firmer masters this year, uh,

where a dynamic touch around the greens is absolutely, absolutely paramount, right? You are going to hit very different shots. You are going to have to deploy very different shots around these greens and almost similar to putting, you almost want to look more at how players have chipped at Augusta National in the past and

than you do at incoming around the green form, because I can give you a hundred examples of guys that typically don't necessarily have the best short game week in and week out on the PGA tour, but they figured out what to do around these screens, right? So number three, creativity around the green scrambling off of short grass. Number four,

This is one that I think has increased with technology over the last couple of years, but power off the tee slash a high ball flight. We used to talk about Augusta National as a shot makers course where you need to be crafty off the tee. You want to club down on certain holes. You want to work the ball both ways.

Not really true anymore about Augusta National. Patrick Cantlay gave a really good quote on this where he talked about how over the last three years, he sort of noticed that it's driver on every hole now. Okay. And long and straight just works on every single tee. We could talk about how, you know, this, this narrative in the past, like,

You need to be a lefty. You need to work the ball from right to left. No. What you need to do is hit the ball high. Hit the ball high and straight. That's going to work now on every single hole at Augusta National. Some of the stuff, some of the tee shots like on 13...

where you really needed to land the ball in a certain spot to get the right runoff. Now players can bomb it over the trees in certain spots, and you can get pretty much anywhere that you need to get at Augusta National with a high and straight ball. Whatever ball shape works for you, whatever ball shape is most comfortable for you. We've seen in the last couple of years Rahm and Brooks –

you know, those are two players that prefer a fade to a draw and they just hit their fade at Augusta and it works because they hit the ball so high, right? So they can access the spots even with a little bit of left to right spin because they hit the ball so high. Um,

And players can gain a tremendous advantage on their second shot via high carry distance and apex height on long irons. Those approaches into firm greens, I think if you're telling me what is the number one most in-the-weeds skill that I think you need to have at Augusta National, it's do you have the ability to stop a long iron on a firm green and get the ball to land in the right section of

of the green. So I think this, this combination of power off the tee and a high ball flight is number four on my list. It's really important. Okay. Number five, I've alluded to this already lag putting slash prior success at Augusta. Augusta is one of the most challenging putting courses on tour. It's got smooth, smooth,

very fast it's like putting on glass bent grass greens that stimp at 14 you know and figuring out the nuances subtle breaks and the ability to control speed from 25 feet plus remains absolutely essential this week okay um

A lot of guys are going to three putt here because you have so many long irons. The proximity on approach is going to be a lot longer on this golf course than any other golf course that we typically see week in and week out on the PGA Tour. And you are going to gain a tremendous advantage by golfing.

giving yourself tap-ins from 25, 30 feet plus. Again, Augusta is one of the toughest courses inside five feet to hold putts as well because you're going to get some

some very subtle breaks on even the short putts. So you keep leaving yourself five to eight footers all day at Augusta. And this pertains to the importance of short game as well. Over the course of four days, you're just going to start missing them, right? So the players that can consistently lag it up to two, you know, two and a half feet inside two and a half feet and give themselves tap-ins are

a massively, massively correlated skill, right? And yes, I'm looking at long-term lag putting numbers, approach putt performance, bent grass putting, putting on fast greens. But the number one thing that I'm looking at more so than anything else is prior putting performance at Augusta National. Number six.

Par five scoring. The four par fives remain the easiest four holes on the golf course. Separating on these holes is a critical component of nearly every single past champion's prior success. I was looking at this over the last two years.

So last year, every single player in the top 10 gained to the field in par five scoring. And the top two finishers on the leaderboard, Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm, guess what? They finished first and second in this field in par five scoring. The prior year, the leaders in the field in par five scoring, Cameron Smith, Scotty Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Shane Lovett.

Lowry. And guess what? Those guys happen to finish as the top four players on the leaderboard. So quite simply, you have to take advantage of the par fives at Augusta National. Number seven.

guts slash course management. Okay. Now you could argue that this should be number one. It probably should be number one. The only reason why it's not number one is because it's just a lot harder to quantify in a model, but still Augusta is the most strategic golf course on tour that rewards decision-making and playing to the right side of the hole more than any other golf course on tour. And you know, this pretty much goes hand in hand with number one.

Number one and number seven are very correlated and related. But if you think that Scotty Scheffler is going to run away with the 2024 Masters, this should be your number one argument. Okay? His brain...

Strategy course management remains his biggest advantage over other elite ball strikers. And that skill is going to get accentuated at Augusta national more so than any other golf course on tour. The reward that players are going to see for hitting the smart shot again, the

This is why guys in their 50s that understand Augusta and know the golf course have been able to continually make the cut here despite not being able to compete with their skill level on other regular courses. It's because of this. It's because the advantage that you receive at Augusta from playing the right shot is

hitting to the right side of the hole is unparalleled compared to any other golf course on tour. So those are the seven key things. Those are the seven key things. And, you know, there's not, there's not a player in this entire field that checks all seven, in my opinion, which is awesome. There's a lot of guys that check six. There's a lot of guys that you could argue check six and a half. But I would look at,

I would look at how you're handicapping the masters through that prism. And some are more important than other, right? Right. Like, you know, par five scoring is not remotely as close to as important as mid to long iron play. Right. That's why I ranked them in, you know, descending order of importance. Uh,

But that's how I would, you know, very over simplistic approach. Like those are the things that you really want to focus on when you're determining who I should bet, who I should play in DFS. It's a good odd number for you. And you get to be a little subjective with number seven because you

That's what you should be. You should be a little subjective at the Masters in terms of what you think is going to happen and who you trust down the stretch on Sunday. But that's a really good prism to look at it, as I found, because it's easy to get bogged down in a lot of the noise, a lot of the data, start diving into things that at the end of the day really don't matter. Those are the seven things, in my opinion, that do. Okay.

uh quickly on the weather so i will provide a much more updated weather report every single day next week again i i will be driving down i'm staying about 10 minutes away from the golf course so you know in that run pure sports discord i'll be updating every day what i think the weather conditions are going to look like based on what i'm seeing down there and in augusta but

Looking at it right now as it sits on Sunday morning, a couple days out, no rain in the forecast Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday. That's a major positive. And generally, warm temperatures should allow the course to fully dry out despite what has been a fairly wet winter. The main concern is that the course will be getting, I don't want to say dumped on, but you're going to get some rain from what it seems on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

And the problem with that is while Augusta has a state-of-the-art sub-air system, if it rains throughout the night on Wednesday night, the sub-air is not going to have time to operate before the tournament begins on Thursday. And we may even see the rain continue into the morning rounds on Thursday morning. Now, this is way too early to call, but...

I am seeing a fairly significant PM AM advantage as much as there can be one without staggered tee times. And we'll talk about that a lot more on the DFS show on Monday night. But, you know, the Thursday afternoon players will see an extremely soft golf course, albeit some wind. And the Friday afternoon players will see a much drier golf course in just as windy conditions. So,

not to mention the fact that AM, PM might have to play in some rain on Thursday morning and high winds and the driest version of the golf course is going to be on Friday afternoon. So all in all, I'm expecting slightly easier than normal scoring conditions for the week, given the amount of rain that we will see on Thursday night. Fingers crossed that that changes, but yeah,

If we see that type of rain on Thursday night, it's never going to be able to get as firm as we would hope for and love. But then over the weekend, it looks to be phenomenal. You know, Saturday is perfect weather. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a player get to 15 under this week. I think Augusta is a really great separation course in terms of if you're playing well, you can go super low. But if you're not playing well, you can put up a really big number as well.

But I think given these scoring conditions, particularly with the softness that we might see from some rain on Wednesday night and the difficulty that the course is going to have drying out from some Wednesday night showers,

Wouldn't be shocked if we saw a player get to, you know, between 13 and 15 under this week, but that player is probably going to separate. I would say that the guys in the top 10, you could probably lock in a top 10 for yourself if you can get to eight, nine, seven under. Okay. Let's go through some trends and angles. Okay. Now I've drudged through as many masters preview pieces as I could find coupled with a little bit of my own research and I

Here were the trends and angles that I actually found most worthwhile to pay attention to. Now, major shouts to my friend Steve Bamford and Dave Tindall on a number of these. OK, recent form. Ten of the last 11 winners have finished in the top 30. At least one of their last two starts leading into Augusta. One player who did not.

John Rahm last year, remember, we got a decent discount on Rahm last year, both from a DFS perspective and in the betting markets, because he didn't look good in his last two starts and at the players he withdrew from an illness. He did not look good at the API and

We got a bit of a discount on Rom last year because people looked at that trend and saw that you needed to be playing great golf coming in. And historically, that's true. You do need to be playing great golf coming in. But I think when you're as good of a player as Jon Rom, you could, you know, trends are meant to be broken.

Hideki also had zero top 10 finishes in 10 starts prior to his Masters victory, and he is the outlier. Everybody else in the last decade was playing some great golf this season in 2024. So, you know, three of the last four years, Rahm, Scheffler, and DJ. The DJ is a little skewed because he had all year to accumulate these three wins, but

For the COVID Masters, but Rahm, Scheffler, and DJ all had three wins heading into their respective Masters victories. I guess the closest you'd come this year is Scheffler with two wins, depending on how you, you know, some worldwide stuff. I think Neiman, Neiman's won three times this year, I believe as well, across live and maybe some international stuff as well.

But in 2019, even if you haven't won, Tiger had two top tens. Reed had three top tens. Between 2017 and 2014, all four Masters champions had a win that season leading into their victories. And all in all, seven of the last ten champions had won that season coming into the Masters. Okay, so...

winning seeing the ball go through the hoop very highly correlated from winning the masters seven of the last 10 winners had a top 12 in a stroke play event in the same or previous month as well so again have you at least seen the ball go through the hoop once in the uh in the last month okay you

Kind of start to worry about some of the guys that haven't played in a couple of weeks. Some of the guys that in their last two or three starts have not been recording at least a top 12, at least a top 12, top 15, top 10, top 20. How hard is it to go back to back? Well, it's only happened three times. Nicholas 96, uh, Nicholas 65, uh,

66, Faldo 89, 90, Woods 2001, 2002. So in the last 20 years, now for whatever reason this is, you know, you're hosting the Champions Dinner, a lot more media obligations, but only two players have finished in the top five games.

In their title defense, Tiger Woods in 2006 and Jordan Spieth in 2016. Since Spieth in 2016, only two of the seven defending champions have finished in the top 30, which does not spell great for Jon Rahm, who we'll get to later.

Don't peak too early. That's another one. In every major over the last 10 years, only Rory McIlroy in 2014 has won the week prior to the major. Okay. This is accounting for all majors. He backed it up in 2014 with a major victory after winning the week prior, but that's it over the last decade.

the last player to win the week before the masters and the masters Phil Mickelson in 2006. Okay. So Akshay, if he wins in Houston, don't know if that spells the best for his, his ability to win the masters. Nine of the 10 last masters winners had posted a top six in a major in one of the previous two seasons. Okay. So this is another really important one. Have you had any,

Recent major success doesn't have to necessarily just be at the Masters, but in one of the last two seasons, have you been in the mix at a major? That's very highly correlated with winning the Masters.

And then of course experience, right? Eight of the last 10 winners have played in at least three masters. Spieth and Danny Willett won on their second appearance, but the sweet spot is like I mentioned between four and 10 appearances at Augusta, seven of the last 10 winners had previously posted a top five at Augusta. Okay. So really, really high correlation with playing well at Augusta, um,

In the past, and then, you know, kind of a stepping stone before you win. I don't think I'm breaking any news with that one either. Okay, let us take a very quick break. And then we're going to run through the betting board.

We're driven by the search for better. But when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search match with Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast.

Ditch the busy work. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. Leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day, Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences, so the more you use Indeed, the

better it gets. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed to hire great talent fast. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at Indeed.com slash BlueWire.

Just go to Indeed.com slash BlueWire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash BlueWire. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed.

Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much?

I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at midmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. All right, we're back. Scottie Shelford, 4 to 1, is the favorite at the Masters. And...

I've gotten, this is the week where I typically get a lot of texts from some casual bettors that are not following golf week in and week out, asking who they should bet for the Masters, who they should put in their pools. And I would tell you, if you are a casual bettor of the Masters, you're not in the weeds with this stuff and you don't care about

you know, constructing a betting card like most of us do with a, you know, a seven X return week in and week out, at least. I would say that just a single bullet on Scotty, you could do a lot worse. Okay. I've seen as high as six to one before. He's around plus 400 at most major books. And I think with,

I think the thing with Scottie is there's very little doubt in my mind that he's going to be around and relevant in this tournament. Right. He last year at the masters, he finished 10th in his title defense, which is a really, really strong title defense. And he hit the ball incredibly well. Okay. I know he was never really a factor or in contention to win that tournament, but he lost over four strokes putting last year, uh,

and still finish 10th. And I think if you are fading Scottie Scheffler, if you are in the camp that he's not going to win, that's what you're hoping for. But that feels like the floor right now because the ball striking is just as good as it was last year, if not even better. And he finished 10th in his title defense, losing four strokes putting.

Now, you know, if I'm thinking about the counter arguments for Scheffler, the pendulum definitely swung too far on his putter being fixed. And Scheffler is just somebody that you could pencil into putt well every single week now. With that being said, I think the mallet has at least improved.

raised his floor I don't know if we are going to see weeks where Scheffler is you know losing five strict five six strokes on the greens anymore and you know like I just mentioned we saw what the floor is even if he has a disastrous putting performance it's like 10 okay so if you're just showing up for the week this is the only golf tournament that you're gonna bet this year

And you're used to being pretty psyched if a 4-1 parlay hits on a couple of NFL bets that you made. I think with Scheffler 4-1, you're going to at least be in the position on Sunday, I think, where you've got the Scheffler 4-1 ticket going.

He's relevant in the tournament. He gets so much respect on the odds board. So throughout this tournament, if Scheffler is within three, four strokes of the lead, he's not going to get much higher than four to one. And you'll probably be at the very least in a position on Sunday where you can say, okay, I've got this Scheffler four to one. Let me pick from the guys that are around him at four,

similar odds on Saturday night or on Sunday morning or throughout the tournament and add, and you should be able to have a couple of runners that are going to give you a sweat on Sunday. I am very, very confident that Scheffler will be around. I will talk so much more about Scheffler from a DFS perspective, but in terms of

Just in a vacuum, his fit on this golf course. Again, I think the brain and course management advantage that Scheffler has on this golf course compared to any other golf course on the PGA Tour, that advantage is

you know, the Ted Scott of it all, who's won three masters before two with Bubba one was shuffler on the bag. I think that that is going to be accentuated at this golf course more than any other golf course on tour. So, you know, I am not in the camp that I, I am not a chef or denier. Okay. Um,

With Kobe, I will lay out some of the counter arguments that may exist to playing him in daily fantasy. But man, I mean, I think about and this this phenomenon, I was talking about this with Brian Kirshner on over the last couple of weeks about how he had every single player around Scotty at the players. He had Wyndham, he had Brian Harmon, he had Xander Shoffley.

a great betting card, right? And he talked about how watching Scotty down the stretch just totally spooked him and ruined him, right? You have something like that happen where you have the entire board absolutely covered and then Scotty does what Scotty does and

And you're like, I have, I'm not stepping in front of this guy anymore. And I had a somewhat similar experience at the Houston open where I had that board covered both from a betting and DFS perspective. I had the big 50 to one Jaeger outright, uh,

I had a ton of guys. I had Moore everywhere, Akshay everywhere, Tony Finau everywhere, Jaeger everywhere in DFS. I had about as strong as a player pool as I ever could have hoped for and imagined without playing Scottie Scheffler. And I know that worked out for me. It was one of my best DFS weeks of the season, and I had the Jaeger 50-1 outright come through for me.

Not one minute of that was comfortable. Not one minute of that was comfortable. Not one minute of that I felt good about my prospects. That Scheffler wasn't just going to steamroll the field. And, of course, it took a missed five-footer on him for him on Sunday for me to have the amount of success that I had. But I walked away from that week being like, no.

man, do I really want to step in front of this guy again? It's going to take a lot of things going right for other players. I do think that there are, there's a number of other players that could win this tournament. And again, if you are telling me gun to my head, am I taking Scheffler or the field? I'm still taking the field, but,

But I also would not besmirch anyone for just particularly if you're a casual and you don't care about the seven X return. If you bet Scotty four to one, I think there's a very, I will tell you this. I would be shocked if he is not within three or four strokes and four to one or better going into Sunday. I would, I would be fairly shocked. Yeah.

But I'm not betting him at four to one. OK, now we get into this next tier of Rory, Rom, Brooks, Zander, Spieth, Hideki, Neiman, Ludwig, Wyndham, Clark. I want to start with John Rom.

And going into this week, I was a little bit more skeptical of ROM's chances at the 2024 Masters. All the numbers that I just gave you at the top of this podcast, right? It is incredibly difficult to repeat, to go back to back as a Masters champion. It has only happened three times in the history of the Masters. So based on that trend, based on that logic,

ROM should be an easy cross off, right? Well, I started diving into the live data and guess what? Turns out ROM is still really, really good at golf. It's impossible to, uh,

compare the strokes gains based on strength of field really in terms of the numbers that he's putting up on live versus maybe what he would do be doing on the PGA tour. But man, even if you want to take a, a very anti live approach, I would have a, a very, very difficult time arguing based on what I'm seeing in the numbers based on the eye test and,

that Rom is at worst the second or third best driver of the ball in the game. He's first and overall off the tee play on live this season. He's ninth in driving distance. The long iron still are solid. He hasn't been, he hasn't been quite the iron player that he has been the driver. But if you combine long iron play, which we've talked about how important and correlated that is with power off the tee high ball flight,

You know, his experience and success at the Masters. Another thing that Liv's doing really well right now on Liv. He's chipping it really well at Liv right now. His short game, his touch around the greens looks as solid as ever. Last year at Augusta in victory, he gained over 3.5 strokes around the green.

um he's putting really well too he's has a really strong resume on backgrass a really strong resume on fast greens and over the last three years at augusta he's gained over stroke putting as well he even ranks top 20 on live this year in putting which you would think is maybe the biggest detractor for rom is that the putter can come and go at times uh it

It doesn't have quite the consistency that his tee to green play does. He's putting solid on Liv, and he's chipping the ball really well on Liv. And those are two aspects of his game that have been raised at Augusta National. So I think Rahm at 12, I've seen him as high as 13 to 1. As much as I love Rory and as much as I think Rory can win this week,

I think that Rahm should be the second favorite. I really do. And I know that that spits in the face of all the trends of how difficult it is to go back to back at Augusta. I still think Rahm's the second best guy in the world until proven otherwise. And I think he provides some

A fascinating DFS play this week, as I'll talk about on the show with Kobe. But Rom was an early cross off for me. We've uncrossed Rom. I know. Hot take. Okay. Let's talk about Rory. I'm going to bet Rory at the Masters. Now, one thing that I want to separate very clearly, and I will talk about

the difference between objective and subjective, what I think that you should do at the masters this week. Uh, I am betting Rory. I been very transparent about the fact that, uh, my dad and I are going to the masters for the first time. Um, this is something we talked about for a really long time. He, we were supposed to go last year. He got COVID, uh,

It's really special to us. It's just never been able to work from a schedule standpoint. He's finally retired now and getting up there in age. He's in his late 70s now. I hope to return to Augusta many times in the future, but I know that this is the first and the last time that my dad and I are going to do this together.

And Rory's always been our guy. He's always been the guy that we believed in and rooted for. I have such strong and fond memories of him.

a lot of these major championships with my dad cheering on Rory in the mix. And while I do not need a financial investment in Rory to be happy to be overjoyed if Rory does ultimately get it done. I don't.

This is just the guy I want to bet at the Masters subjectively. This is the guy that I want to cheer on. I don't want to have a giant ticket on somebody else and then have my feelings of what I want to have on Sunday be muddled by cheering on what my heart wants and what my wallet wants. And while I will talk about in a second—

who I would bet the betting card that I would make if I was taking subjectivity out of it. And I was just telling you on this podcast, okay, this is what makes the most sense from a numbers perspective.

Um, I will talk about what that card would look like in a second and Rory is not on it. I cannot tell you in good faith that Rory at 12 to one, 11 to one, 13 to one, whatever I'll be able to get him at is a better construction and allocation of your resources than one or two of the guys that I'm about to mention next. Um,

But that's the beauty of the Masters, right? Is that you obviously have a subjective opinion on these and you obviously are going to try and marry what you want your bank account to show, what you want your wallet to do with what your heart wants. And I would not be making this bet on Rory to win the Masters, right?

If I didn't think that it could happen, I am firmly in the camp that Rory can win the Masters. Like I said, I don't think it's the best bet on the board. With that being said, I have watched Rory incredibly closely over the last couple of weeks. I have spoken to a number of people, um,

that are very smart on the data and analytics side. I had one person that I was talking to that actually spoke to Rory ahead of the Valero Texas open that followed Rory inside the ropes at the Valero Texas open. And he, for what it's worth was, was slash is more was after what he's seen from Rory, a bit of a Rory denier, a bit of a Rory skeptic in terms of,

His dispersion pattern at Augusta, his ability to miss pretty big at Augusta, right? His fondness for the giant miss, the double bogey that destroys his momentum and takes him out of the tournament. And he said, when I spoke to Rory this year, when I spoke to Rory at Valero, he seemed like he had far more of a plan in terms of discipline than he has now.

prior years. And I have always maintained, I have always said that the difference between Rory and Scheffler is not their talent. It's not their ability to hit the center of the clubface. It's not their ability to drive the ball 350 yards in the air. It's the way they play golf. It's the type of shots that they choose to hit. And you listen to Rory's press conference at the Valero, and he talked a lot about

he kept using the word discipline, which is really interesting to me because that's not necessarily a word that you hear Rory use a lot in his press conferences. And he kept saying discipline. And it seems like ideally he has kind of realized maybe this is from watching Scheffler's dominance. And maybe this is him looking at, man, like,

How giant of a correlation there is in terms of strokes gained and performance to where I decide to aim and what shots that I decide to hit and how easy it is to, uh,

rack up, give myself a ton of birdie opportunity. I mean, we're always going to sleepwalk into birdie opportunities if he just plays smart golf at Augusta. And it's not a golf course where you need to go out and shoot 62 any day. I mean, if he, if he shoots three under every single day, he will be right there in the mix. And hearing him talk about understanding that

Maybe there's a little bit more to this than just talent level. There's a little bit more to this than just bombing the ball at will off the team. Maybe I need to think about where I miss. Maybe I need to play a little bit more disciplined. That's exactly what I would want to hear coming out of the Rory camp, right? And Valero has looked as good as I would have hoped for, right? Yeah.

he's driving the ball beautifully. Uh, he did the, the bigger mess started to creep in a little bit on Saturday, which worried me, but the irons have looked a lot better. Some of the short iron play, some of the long iron play, he's eradicated a lot of that giant left mess. Um, and it's probably the, the Valero that you could have hoped for out of Rory. He's played great. Hasn't putted great. Um,

and he's probably going to finish somewhere in the top 10 without a serious threat of winning.

So I believe that this can happen. I wouldn't make the bet if I didn't believe that it could. But there's a huge element of emotion and subjectivity and a father-son element to this Rory bet with my dad and I. But that's who I'm betting to win the Masters, 11, 12, 13 to 1, whatever I can get on Rory. And then...

If I'm taking, you know, if I am taking a super objective by the numbers, forget about what I want to happen. Forget about what I think in my mind and my heart is going to happen. This is just the most sensible betting card that I would make. I would tell you Brooks and Hideki. Okay. That's the betting card that I would tell you to make in terms of like the marriage of their form, their course fit.

The numbers, prior success at Augusta, prior success in major championships. From like a logic standpoint, and golf isn't all about logic. I mean, illogical things can happen in golf 24-7. But if you're just telling me what is the most sensible betting card that you could make, I would tell you it's Brooks and Hideki. Now, I don't think that that's going to happen because I have subjectivity to it, but I

Man, like...

Brooks at 20 is too high. It just, it is too high. And I've watched him at Doral. I don't care as much about the poor round that he shot yesterday on Saturday. Again, Doral is a very highly variable golf course like TPC Sawgrass, where a couple of poor mistakes and water balls can skew your performance massively. You look at Brooks's numbers on live this season. I know that he hasn't

really popped in the way that like a Joaquin Neiman has, but he ranks third on live this year in, in long iron approach play. And while I would not say that he's driving the ball as well as Neiman, DJ Bryson, or, or ROM Brooks's iron play has looked really freaking sharp and he's chipping the ball well, and he's putting pretty well this year and he's putted a

He putted unbelievably at Augusta National last year. And he always chips it really well at Augusta National as well. So if you're just telling me what makes the most sense on paper, I think Brooks at 20-1 is wild. I think it's the best bet on the board. Why is Brooks higher odds than Rory? It doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Now, if you are telling me put your feelings into this,

My biggest counter argument for why I don't think Brooks is going to win the 2024 Masters. God, if he gets to six, if Brooks gets to six majors, I know we talk about Rory playing for history and Rory trying to compete the Grand Slam and get to five majors.

What's really more at stake in terms of a golf history argument is Brooks. Really? Brooks getting to six? I mean, we're talking Phil, Tom Watson, Gene Saracen, Arnold Palmer, Walter Hagan, Sam Snead, Gary Player, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods. If Nick Faldo. If Brooks gets to six, he's like almost a top 10 golfer to ever play the sport.

which is wild, wild stuff. And he's done that with 13 total wins, including live, you know, all of these other guys with six majors have won 50 times. So the Brooks career would almost be like if Tom Brady went nine and seven every year in the regular season and put up like middle of the road QB stats, uh,

and then just went on a Super Bowl run as the wild card every single year and got six rings like he did. That's... I just... It'd be so, so odd if Brooks gets to six. I think he will ultimately get to six. I don't think it's happening this week. I think it's... I think it's maybe a little bit too soon for him to get to six, but he's young enough where it feels like a foregone conclusion that he will get to six, seven, maybe eight, but...

God, if Brooks wins this week, he's like a top 12 golfer of all time, which is wild to me. I mean, Rory could get up there too. Rory getting to five puts him with the overall success he has in winning the Grand Slam. Both these guys this week, both Brooks and Rory are essentially playing for becoming a top 12 to 15 golfer ever this week at the Masters, which is pretty damn cool.

I don't think Brooks is going to get to six just yet just because it makes so little sense right

with what we've seen in golf history. But again, that's a ridiculous reason, right? That's just my brain making a ridiculous reason of why it shouldn't happen. Yet, when has Brooks cared whatsoever about what should matter and what shouldn't matter? I think a 20 to one, it's like the best bet on the board. It just, I love the way I would even come in here and tell you like, ah, Brooks doesn't look that good on live. Are we sure his games is,

closest he thinks it is. No, I like what I'm seeing out of Brooks on left. And then Hideki, he's an unbelievable short game. He raises his baseline at Augusta. He's playing incredible golf right now. He had the win at, at Riviera, which is such an important earmark. There is a strong correlation of once you get that green jacket, you,

you typically tend to play a little freer. And we've seen this massive correlation of guys on the Bubba level get the second green jacket in the two, three years following up their Masters. And I think if you're projecting out career, is Hideki...

Hideki and Bubba are in similar generations, but Hideki is the 2020s version of Bubba. Probably right. My main reason for why you wouldn't bet Hideki. It's just as similar as why I'm not paying Hideki. It's just as similar as the silliness of the Brooks reason is that you play Hideki when he doesn't make sense.

Okay. Think about Hideki's masters when nobody was to, I remember that clearly. Quick shout out to my friend Nagels was like the only guy I know that was heavy on Hideki that week, but Hideki broke every masters trend that year. He didn't have a top 10 all season. He hadn't been playing great. Um, like similar to what we saw at Riviera. I mean, I played him in daily fantasy at Riviera. He was like 7,300 at Riviera. Um, uh,

But and there were some great bets on him at 90 to one. I was not one of those guys, but it was not obvious whatsoever. And that's when Hideki comes through when it's not obvious. That's when you want to bet Hideki when he's not going to give you a warning sign necessarily. And then when he makes the most sense on paper as a longtime fan.

you know, somebody who's played Hideki quite a bit over the years and is a big Hideki fan, the times when he makes the most sense on paper, those are the times when he's generally due for a bit of a regression. So that would be the silly subjective reason to not bet Hideki. And then the final two guys that I want to talk about as well are Xander and one of my favorite, he's 50 to one. Do you even call that a long shot?

but I do believe that he can win. But Zander 18, 20 to one. Can I come on here and make the case that that Zander at 18 to 20 is a better bet than Brooks or Hideki? Probably not. I mean, there's some course fit stuff that I Zander rates out better statistically than any other golfer in this field for me outside of Sheffler, but he does that every single week.

And I have spoken extensively about there's a lot of noise and incorrectness in terms of the narrative about Xander struggling on Sunday, Xander struggling in contention. A lot of those things can be statistically disproven pretty quickly. Now, with that being said,

Can he get over the hump, man? It feels a lot like Xander is the safest player to finish top five in this field outside of Scotty Scheffler. And I would imagine that his daily fantasy ownership reflects that. But can I get here, get on here and confidently tell you that with your hard-earned money, a bet on Xander Schauffele at the same number is

as a bet on Brooks is a better bet. I probably can't. I would rather bet Xander, like I said, than Brooks and Hideki. But again, that's all for subjective personal reasons, right? I really want to see Xander do it. I put out a poll, which I thought was very telling, more so on the Rory McIlroy side in terms of like,

How far Rory has fallen in terms of folks' estimation of him being able to win a major. I put out a poll asking who is more likely to win the Masters this year. It's basically 50-50 between Rory and Xander. I think Rory has a better chance to win the Masters this year than Xander. But I understand the Xander argument. I mean, Xander is, bar none...

Outside of Scottie Scheffler on the PGA Tour, playing the best golf this year with Wyndham Clark outside of Scheffler. Okay, it's not particularly close. Those are the three guys on the PGA Tour that have most consistently separated themselves. It's Zander, it's Wyndham Clark, it's obviously Scottie Scheffler. Whereas a lot of PGA Tour players kind of asleep at the wheel this year. Didn't really show up for 2024. Your Cantlays, your Victor Hovland's.

Um, you're calling more call was, I, I would suppose to, I mean, Justin Thomas as well. That's a whole other argument too, but Xander showed up. Xander showed up this year. I know he hasn't won. We had a heartbreaking defeat on him at the players, but he has been an incredibly profitable golfer for me this year from, from a daily fantasy perspective. He checks every box you're looking for. He's probably the most well-rounded player in this entire field and,

including Scheffler, if you factor in some of his longer-term putting stuff. He's been unbelievable at Augusta. He's been unbelievable at Kapalua, at Riviera. He gained strokes in all four major categories last year at Augusta. The short game's been phenomenal for him this season. The driver has been avoiding the big miss pretty well.

So, Zander can win the Masters. I'm very much in that group. I would want to see him win the Masters more so than any other player in this field outside of Rory. It's not a bad bet. 20-1, it's not a bad bet, and I think I would probably...

I don't know if my heart and stomach can take a Rory Zander card for me at the Masters this year. And that's why I would tell you in terms of just like what is just a better golf bet, I would say Brooks and Hideki.

But who knows? I may bet Xander at 20 to one. It's not bad. I like him a lot more at 20 than I do at 16. And then the final guy that I want to talk about, I'm going to talk about a lot more of the players on all of the content that I'm going to do this week. But the final guy that I want to talk about that I am a massive, massive fan of this week is Cameron Young. Now, Cameron Young is.

He's playing some great golf right now. Now, you know, it would be, it's, it's very easy to make cases for the best players in the field that I have already. Your, your Scotties, your, your ROMs, your Brooks's, your Hideki's, even your Xander and Rory's. But the reason why I wanted to highlight Cameron young, I haven't decided what I'm going to do after Rory because I,

it's either Rory and Xander for me, or I can't fit Rory Xander and cam young, but I can fit a Rory and a cam young and, and maybe one or two other guys. Um,

But you look at what Cameron Young's done. Okay. So he finished seventh at the masters last year. He gained over five strokes off the tee and on the greens. Now this was really, really encouraging for two reasons. First of all, young should dominate this golf course off the tee. Like, right. Similar to the way that we've seen younger previous versions of, of Bubba and Rory and Nicholas and tiger gain a significant advantage at Augusta with their distance. Um,

This is what Cam Young should be doing at Augusta. He should be dominating off the tee here. He hits the ball incredibly high, incredibly straight, incredibly long. And if he can keep the ball in play on this golf course, I think he is an absolute lock to finish top 10 in strokes gained off the tee every year at the Masters, given his power and statistical profile. Secondly, you know, even more encouraging is

was to see him adapt so comfortably to the deceptive and undulating greens at Augusta. You know, putting is often Young's biggest bugaboo. So to see that Young gained over five strokes putting in just his second appearance at Augusta was a brilliant sign, to say the least. And who knows, maybe that...

CB McDonald, undulation, bent grass, sleepy hollow has really helped him. But I think that the fact that he was able to figure out the green so quickly in his second appearance, I thought was incredibly encouraging going forward for your Cam Young arguments. And we've seen historically poor putters, like I said, Hideki, Adam Scott, Wills Altora, Sergio Garcia. Those guys all significantly raised their putting baseline at Augusta National, but

Could Cameron Young be next in line? You know, is it a coincidence that we see Cameron Young perform so well at these bigger ballparks with undulating green, such as Southern Hills and St. Andrews? Like you think about Southern Hills, you know, a Perry Maxwell design with a Gil Hance redo.

Perry Maxwell is very close to Alistair McKenzie in terms of the way that he looks at green complexes. Southern Hills was so much about those severe runoff areas and chipping off of short grass. Obviously, St. Andrews, there's a ton of Alistair McKenzie areas.

type undulation and influence and that's why the correlation with St. Andrews is so strong over the years as well with your your Cameron Smith's and your Zach Johnson's and your lag putting and your bomber you know your your power off the tee and the short game skill and creativity and

you know, just looking at how well young has performed at Southern Hills and, and St. Andrews. I know that he's yet to break through on the PGA tour and, you know, but we're still talking about a player who is a mere two strokes away from two majors after all. Um,

And I just, the way that young is playing and hitting the ball right now, he's coming off a runner up at the Valspar where he gained over a stroke and a half and all four major categories, nine starts. This year has made every single cut for top tens, three top fives. And he's now gained over 3.5 strokes, ball striking in seven straight starts. So if you are looking for a player at 45 to one or higher, uh,

that can hang with Scheffler for four days from a ball striking perspective, it's Cameron Young and then everyone else from 45 to one or higher. And who knows, maybe we even catch lightning in a bottle with the putter too. So where this sits for me now on Sunday morning, I can't wait to watch some live Doral and some Valero Texas open and, and start to finalize things. But Rory's a bat Xander may be a bat.

Um, and if not Xander Cameron young and, you know, it just feels like at the masters, like a lot of the, the group of guys who can win the masters is really small. I think a lot of these guys in terms of the DFS conversation is a lot more interesting, right? Like there are some guys like, I think the pendulum has swung too far on Victor. Like I dove into some of the Victor stuff and I think Victor is going to be a low on DFS play, uh,

That is going to surprise some people. And I think you're going to be able to get an opportunity from a leverage standpoint on how far the narrative has swung on Victor. Do you think Victor is sharp enough to win? I feel like it's a little bit of a different conversation, right? So hit the gala. So hit the gala is who I think is going to be like good chalk this week at the masters. So hit makes a tremendous amount of success for me. Do I see so hit raising the trophy?

I mean, maybe I could, but there's not much of a historical precedent for it. You usually see a little bit more. I mean, it would kind of have to be the Danny Willett thing. And Danny was a lot more older and accomplished. You very rarely see a guy win his Masters on his second start.

without as much prior success coming in and historical pedigree. But I think he, from a course fit standpoint, from the way he's playing, is a tremendous top 10 or top 5 bet. I just think when it comes to winning...

the the pool is the pool is pretty damn small i know i didn't get to talk about players like windham and neiman and dustin johnson and bryson and just thomas and call markawa um we can cover them tony finow we can cover them a lot more extensively on the dfs show i i didn't talk about them because i just don't think they're in those pool of guys that can win i think um

It wouldn't shock me at all, but I think my little pool, as I mentioned, is Scheffler, Rahm, Brooks, Hideki, Rory, Zander, and Cameron Young as my surprise candidate. So that will do it for me. Sorry for going a little bit longer on this. I wanted to talk through a lot. I might give you the most in-depth that I could walk through of my thoughts on the top of the betting board.

The course, the trends and angles, what you should focus on. Remember, if this helped you at all, it would mean a lot to me if you could share it around on Twitter. Remember, quick five-star review on Apple Podcasts takes two seconds out of your time and you will be entered into a draw to win

whatever I can get you, whatever you want from that master store, remember to leave your email or Twitter handle in the bio. Enjoy in the review. And I'll get in touch with you on Monday or Tuesday. Once again, I appreciate all the support as well this week. I continue to be humbled by the support that I received on the Steve Bamford podcast that I did. I'm excited to produce a lot more stuff this week after being on the grounds at Augusta. Obviously,

There's going to be a ton of stuff at Rump Your Sports. There's going to be a ton of free stuff, too. After spending all day at the Masters on Tuesday, I'll be going on Brian Kirscher's podcast. I'll be going on Twitter with Steve's podcast. Me and Kobe do one of, if not my favorite episodes of the year, a DFS total breakdown at the Masters. That should come out on Tuesday morning.

And enjoy the week. I feel like golf needs this. I'm more excited for this Masters. I'm more excited to see how Scheffler stacks up against some of the best players on live. Obviously, there's an added element of specialness for me going for the first time. But, you know, this is the most...

This is the most excited I've been for. We have good storylines. We have interesting things happening. This is the most excited I've been for, for a major, maybe since like St. Andrews, I was St. Andrews. I was pretty damn excited for LACC to be fair. Cause I love that golf course so much. I was pretty damn excited for, but I think we're in for a good one. If the, if the weather holds. So,

So best of luck with your bets on Sunday. Enjoy the lead into Masters. And we'll be back on this podcast feed later this week with a full DFS breakdown. Until then, we will see you next time. Cheers.

Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI. Because legal fees and time in court are just the beginning. Getting into a crash is another way that your world can be turned upside down. Your vehicle may not be the only thing that gets damaged in that crash. You can face a life-altering injury or

or even death. But you're not the only one that can face those consequences. Your decision to drink and drive can permanently impact not just your world, but someone else's world as well. Whether you injure them or leave their loved ones grieving. The next time you're out drinking, call a ride share.

a taxi, a sober friend, or a designated sober driver. The only decision that will change your world for the better is the decision to call for a sober ride. Drive sober or get pulled over. Paid for by NHTSA.