2024 Genesis Invitational Preview
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The season-long core four cut streak, it did come to an end this week. How did it come to an end? Luke List, gutless bogey on 18 to miss the cut on the number. You hate to see it. Hopefully JT can win and all will be forgiven. You can join the community at runpeersports.com. Yes, we believe we have the best information, the best community, certainly the best Discord, just the best hang.

The mission has always been we're going to create a community where the information is from people that actually know golf, actually know architecture, really understand the market,

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Use that promo code Andy to get you 15% off. Try it for a week. Let us prove it to you. This is actually certainly a very good week to do it because I love Riviera right in my backyard. And we would love to have you as part of that community. All right. Speaking of ball knowing, I have a big announcement about a partnership that I am incredibly excited about. Probably,

The question that I get asked more so than anything in terms of golf data, betting, DFS is how do you make your models? Where do you make your models? Where do you get all of your information? Where do you get all of your data? And to be honest, my answer is I do it all by hand because I

Some of the other data sites don't always do the best job of providing and laying out all of the information that I want to use. And I know a lot of people have shared some frustrations with those. And I get it. I certainly understand that more than you know, as somebody that is a subscriber to everything. I'm very familiar with everything out there. And I've also...

Luckily, thankful to all of those listening right now, have reached a point in my career where I can be a lot more selective with my partnerships, right? I'm not at a point career-wise and financially anymore where I need to find all these places to sponsor my podcast, have all of these promo codes. Just luckily not something I need to do anymore. So, yeah.

I do a lot of vetting and I like to keep this podcast really tight, right? Particularly on, I don't want to hit you with millions of ads and millions of things you want to sign up for. So it takes a lot for me, particularly on something like this before I enter any form of partnership and put my name behind something. I want that place to align with what

brand, I hate that word, is what my values are in terms of the type of content I create, which is take your information very seriously, but don't take yourself too seriously, right? And every so often something comes along where I'm like, wow, they

They just knocked this one out of the park. They did an incredible job here. I am really impressed by this. This fits perfectly with what I do. This price is incredible. The resources are incredible. The people behind it are smart and care about the right things and are completely committed to making this the best data slash information golf modeling site in the industry. Yeah.

And this place is checking all of those boxes for me. So I am really proud to announce proud and excited to announce that inside golf podcast myself, probably a lot of stuff coming with run peer sports as well as partnering with my good friends over at Betts, Bert's golf, um, specifically to talk about a new tool, the rabbit hole, which I hope you've heard of by now. Uh, I'm going to be talking a lot about it on this podcast, uh,

This is going to be where I make models now. You will be able to see them up there at Betzbert's Golf right now. But this is literally the thing that I have been hoping for, the type of innovation where it's like, oh, wow, the person behind this, the people behind this that conceived of this, Ron Kloss, PJ Splets, all the guys over at Betzbert's, Andy Mulliter, Ryan Noonan, they actually had the foresight to see

Wow, there's real opportunity here to do what other data sites are not doing. Provide way better information. Actually dive into things like...

Missed fairway penalty, rough proximity from the rough versus rough proximity from the fairway. Actually take the time to get the putting surfaces right, not just put DBC River Highlands and Riviera as the same type of putting service because there are strands of POA in both of them and actually categorize courses the right way. Dive into specific types of architecture. All the things that I've been hooting and hollering about for years on this podcast.

They finally did it. This is a new website where you can create models exactly like I have been hand building them for years. It has the most customizable tools and we're just getting started. I am going to work my ass off and continue to help that team over there to provide everything that can be possible to you as a user. I genuinely think this is

a huge innovation and revolution in the data space. I'm actually kind of worried because this site now gives people the opportunity to look at things that I have been building out by hand for years. So a little worried about if my edge is still going to be there. But honestly, this is how it should be. There was a huge opportunity in this space.

Just judging by how people were interpreting data and building their models. They were not generally having all of the tools that they should have available to create like the most accurate data set, not really looking at the right things.

And I'm really proud to be at the forefront of helping build what I believe is going to be the most actionable tool in golf. So here's what we're going to do. I have a code that gives you 25% off. This site is already the cheapest on the market for data. So with my code, it's a joke. For a week, with my code, it's $7.

For a month with my code, it's $15. Well, that's an incredible deal for a year, which is the best deal with my code. It's $150 compared to $200 without the code. So go to BetSportsGolf.com, type in code INSIDEGOLF, okay? INSIDEGOLF for 25% off today.

If you want to commit to only a week, that's fine. Try it out. Play around with it. Hit me up. Shoot me a message. Tell me what you like, what you don't like, what could be added, etc. That's the point, right? Like we actually want to listen, have the time to listen, care, and are completely committed and devoted to making this work.

The best golf database that I think is going to revolutionize the ability to interpret data. So betspertsgolf.com promo code inside golf for 25% off. Play around with it. Shoot me a message. Tell me what you like. We'll have Ron PGA splits on this week on the podcast feed and like two days to talk a lot more about it.

So I can't wait. Like I said, I take a long time now. I've been rewarded the benefit in my career where I get to really think about the places that I want to partner with. And there really hasn't been a place like this that I found where I was just frankly incredibly impressed by the innovation, the minds behind it, what they were trying to build and

Honestly, like how it was going to make my life personally a hundred times easier. Like all of the things I've talked about on this podcast, specifically this Sunday podcast, you can now do all that stuff too, right? There doesn't have to be a mystery around it anymore of like, how do you identify these players that,

have the best good drive percentage on California POA desert courses that I'm making a ridiculous example right now with the lowest Miss Fairway priority, right? Like this actually gives you the most customizable tools in the industry. Um, that, like I said, I think are going to provide an edge, such an edge for people that are using this based on

what other people are looking at and how other people are building models versus what you have with this. So anyway, we'll get Ron on to talk a lot more about it later on this week. Let's talk about Riviera.

All right, Genesis Invitational right in my backyard. I live five minutes away from this golf course. Could probably walk to it. Will probably walk to it this week, all four days. Formerly the LA Open, this tournament's been around since 1926. It's been played at a number of Los Angeles courses over the year, including my home course back in 1927, El Caballero. It's been played at Rancho Park, Fox Hills,

LACC, Hillcrest, Wilshire, all the courses that I love, all the courses that I play golf at here in Los Angeles. But basically since 1973, we have been going to Riviera, which is one of the greatest golf courses in the country. It's one of the greatest golf courses in the world, at least architecturally in terms of its routing and design. I,

have read a lot about it over the years. So I'm excited to share a few takes on it. It is also worth noting that we are for better or worse. I think there's positives and negatives to this. We are going to be getting pretty much the same field, same format that we got at Pebble Beach. Okay. This is going to be a 70, I think 71, 72 man field field is already uploaded as we speak in the rabbit hole.

And no cut signature VAT, a lot of prize money up top. Like I said, incredibly similar field to what we saw at Pebble beach. I think the, the main giant difference is a guy named Tiger woods. I've heard of him before. And,

We'll talk a lot more about Tiger Woods, I suppose, as the week progresses. I could tell you he was not popping for me in the rabbit hole model. I do have some on-course concerns about what Tiger's performance is going to be. But in terms of, hey, just the spectacle of let's get Tiger back on a golf course competing again, PGA Tour has taken some...

some hits recently. Not all of it has been their fault. Weather wise. I still think some of it, they do deserve to be criticized for how they've handled certain weather circumstances. So this is a week that needs a lot of juice, man. And I, I really hope that they're able to find a great leaderboard on Sunday. I hope that Tiger, Tiger,

plays well enough where it's fun right i don't think it's fun for everyone for anyone out there if tiger goes out there and finishes dead last and you know maybe the pghr gets a little bit of momentum this week in in phoenix even though that whole tournament and tv schedule is completely thrown off as i'm recording this right now it is you know like 7 30 p.m eastern now so uh

before I went into this recording, Spieth was in the mix. JT was in the mix. Shafor was in the mix. Zahith was in the mix. Um, that's unfortunately not been the first time where we've had good names in the mix on Saturday. Um, be cool to have those good names in the mix late on Sunday. Um, but Riviera has the makings of, uh,

Ideally, what could produce an incredible leaderboard? And it has done that in the past. We have had some surprising winners here, J.B. Holmes, James Hahn. But you look at the last few leaderboards of Riviera. Okay, last year,

Here's the top five. John Rahm, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Zala Torres, Colin Markawa. Outside of Rahm, which is not available to them anymore, I think they probably signed for that. It's a pretty damn good leaderboard. Every single one of those guys was in the top 12 in data golf at the time. The prior year, Joaquin Neiman, Colin Markawa, Cameron Young, Adam Scott, Victor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Scotty Scheffler.

Only player outside of the top 30 in data golf at the time was Cameron Young. He obviously developed into a guy that, you know, contends in majors every now and then and looks like based on how he's playing in Phoenix, he might be on the upswing a little bit. 2021 Homa, Finau, Burns, Cameron Smith, Matt Fitzpatrick, Hovland, Rom. That's your top five. So this is a golf course that should separate elite players. And hopefully we get some more of that this week. Let's talk about the golf course.

So it's in Pacific Palisades, California, a place I go home, a place I love very much. We got a lot of rain last week, but the weather looks pretty darn good. I will be able to update that and give you an incredibly accurate weather forecast over the next couple of days. So tune into my content over at Rumpier Sports because I'm not...

Uh,

uh, was closed all day yesterday. It just actually opened up. It was actually closed all day Thursday. It opened up for a limited play on Friday. Um, and I didn't go out and check it out there today, but a bunch of my friends did, uh, still pretty soggy and wet. Now give it a couple more days and,

I would expect it to be very playable and good conditions. There's not supposed to be more rain in Los Angeles between now and the start of the tournament. But I have a difficult time imagining that this maybe by Sunday. Okay. So maybe I'll hedge my bets a little bit, but I have a difficult time imagining that we're going to see this.

a super firm and fast Riviera, at least by Thursday start time. I, I'm not talking preferred lies or anything like that, but it's not going to be a, a baked out Riviera, um, that we've seen sometimes in the past. Now, Riviera, uh,

was designed in 1926 by George C. Thomas and William Bell. Thomas is one of the greatest architects of all time. I would highly recommend his book, Golf Course Architecture in America. It's strategy and construction. It is probably one of the best books on architecture you'll ever read. I get questions about where would I get started in terms of diving into architecture. I

I would maybe read this first. Um, I think it's in my top five, maybe the stuff that dokes written spirit of St. Andrews, um,

Jeff Shackelford's book specifically on Riviera. The exact title is escaping me, but that one is quite good too. So Thomas is basically an LA guy. Every great golf course in the greater Los Angeles area, there's a very good chance that George Thomas was involved. He's also designed LACC North, one of my all-time favorite courses, which you recently saw for

the U S open Bel Air country club, Ohai country club, Palos Verdes, Saticoy is, which is a course I really enjoy as well. And most of those were with William belt. Now what's interesting is Thomas was not actually born in Los Angeles. He was a Philadelphia guy and he was good friends with Hugh Wilson who designed Marion George Crump, who designed Pine Valley. And of course Tillinghast. So Thomas was actually part of this group,

Philadelphia School of Golf Course Design along with Crum, Tillinghast, Wilson, William Flynn. And, you know, they were some of the first guys to ever really innovate with more dog legs and risk reward holes. And, you know, when he moved to Los Angeles in 1919, he ended up bringing that Philadelphia school style of architecture to the West Coast. I could do about 45 more minutes on this, but let's get to the actual course. So,

as I mentioned, par 71, 7,300 yards. It's tight off the tee. It's tree lined. It plays in a Canyon. There's some pretty provocative topography at Riviera. So you're not going to get a lot of even lies. Tom Fazio, uh, who should be kept miles and miles away from golf courses like Riviera, uh, did a bit of a redesign in 2008 and thank God he really did not change much. Um,

The bunkers are deep. The rough is Kikuyu, which can get dicey. And we are back to Poa Green. So putting inside 10 feet is always going to be one of the hardest on the PGA Tour, right? You're going to see more...

Three putts here. You're going to want to go back to looking at players that have performed well on POA greens. You can do that on the rabbit hole. I can get into that shortly. And these greens actually are a lot faster and even more difficult than the POA greens at Pebble Beach and at Torrey Pines. Now,

A lot of that has to do with climate. Like I mentioned, Riviera is in the middle of a canyon. So sunlight is completely reflected and bounces off of the surrounding Santa Monica Mountains, which is why you see a lighter green coloring on Riviera's greens than the darker green that you see at Pebble and Torrey, which is on the coast and in a bit of a colder climate, right? And I mentioned the Kikuyu Rough area.

This course in Torrey Pines are the only courses that feature this type of rough. And sometimes you're going to get a really good line. Sometimes it's going to be pretty buried. There is no ton of rhyme or reason to it, but.

Players are going to have to deal with a lot of it this week because the fairways are very difficult to hit. And with the way this course plays now, and I have a theory about the way this course is changing and the type of skill set that this course is beginning to favor more so than not because of the distance problem. Yeah.

You're just going to see a lot more drivers here, um, than we have seen in, in previous years. Right. Um,

Okay. So a couple more notes about Revere before we get into the stats. It's, it's really more of a shot makers golf course, right? Where there are a lot of different ways that you can attack this golf course. You can hit driver on every hole if it suits your eye, which is what I would recommend doing. You can also never hit driver at all and still have success. Right. And that creative aspect of it, where you,

There are just a lot of ways to attack these holes is why Bubba has been so good here. It's why Ben Hogan has been so good here. And the reason why architecture nerds like myself consider this one of the seminal works of the 20th century is because of that very reason, right? There's

Zero homogeneity to the strategy here. It doesn't necessarily favor a draw or a fade consistently the way that a Jack Nicklaus course will just lazily design golf courses where you can hit the same shot over and over again. Riviera actually really rewards players that can work the ball both ways off the tee and think creatively again.

This is why Bubba has been so good here. Augusta is, and we could talk more about that comparison, is very much in that same classical vein where,

It is a much different golf course than Riviera agronomically and has a lot more room off the tee, but both kind of embody this very similar ethos of creativity and shot making because there's so much undulation to this course and the ball actually moves on the ground. It's not just target golf. You actually have to play away from pins, which is wildcard.

why I think Thomas was one of the best to ever do it. They just don't really make golf courses like this anymore, if we're being completely honest. Actually, you know what? I shouldn't say that. They're starting to again. They didn't make golf courses like this for a really long time. And now they're starting to again. So a couple more quotes on Riviera. Adam Scott, who's been awesome here.

I really just like a lot of the holes out here. I'm very comfortable. Somehow I managed to putt generally well here, which is when it's one of those courses that guys really struggle most on tour with. Something about it reminds me of some of the golf in Australia, too.

Shout out Cam Davis week. The Australia comparison is out because, you know, the best thing about golf courses in Australia and their philosophy over there is that they water their golf courses very differently than how we water our golf courses in the United States. In Australia,

They don't use a lot of water on their golf courses, which is why courses in the sand belt play so firm and fast. And usually, although, as I mentioned, I'm a little bit more worried about that this year because we've just gotten so much rain in L.A., Riviera plays firm and fast. So, you know, it's not a shock to see that Australians have played well here over the years. Yeah.

Bubba Watson talked about how you're going to get some weird balances around here, how you have to stay patient on this golf course. He talked about how they do not make golf courses like this anymore and how this golf course is all about angles. Don't tell Lou Stagner. Very well said, Bubba. I agree with you there. Um, and then this quote from Rory McIlroy is the last one I'll throw out there because, uh, this is probably my favorite one. Um,

I quote, we don't play golf courses like this anymore on tour. I would argue you never really have, but that's aside from the point. It's not overly long. You don't have to bomb it off the tee. Again, I would quibble with that now, but this Rory quote is from a couple of years ago, but it's real strategic, right?

You've got to place your ball on the right sides of the fairways. You have to make sure you hit the right side of the greens. You can't really short side yourself here. You can't really get it above the pen. It's a real thinkers golf course, and it's a real treat to play something like this because we don't get to play them that often anymore. He goes on to say, I think I saw a stat the other day where there were more

missed three footers here than they were anywhere on tour that is true inside six feet is going to be really important here because you aren't going to be hitting the amount of greens that you are used to hitting so they will be a lot of those holing out type distances for pars that will be very important

Very well said. In one quote, Rory surmised the challenge of Riviera, right? How this is a golf course highly correlated with short game because putting is so difficult, right? So that places such, we talked about this at Torrey Pines too, places so much more pressure on your short game when your make percentage inside 10 feet is lower. That so much increases the emphasis of being able to chip it

to short range. We actually have a stat on the rabbit hole around the green proximity that we can get into as well. But there's a golf course where you're no matter what going to hit less greens than you're used to. And unless you're chipping everything to two feet, you're going to have a lot of six to eight footers on POA. That is not a winning strategy, but it is worth noting. And I'll use this to transition us into talking a little bit more about what I'm looking for this week.

Riviera is getting a little easier. Okay. And now some of that is it played softer last year too. We got rain last year in LA in January and February too. Both of the last two years, it has played under par. Now each of the last three years, it has played outside the top 10 most difficult golf courses on the PGA tour. Okay.

So it's kind of trending in this direction of playing easier. Now, part of that is that it was softer, a little bit softer the last two years. It's going to be probably a little bit softer this year as well. And the other aspect of it is that this is a golf course that,

uh, has not been benefited by a longer golf ball. Okay. So driving distance here, 295 yards, 3.7 yards above tour average driving accuracy here is super low. 50% basically each of the last five years, it is ranked inside the top five in most difficult fairways to hit on the PGA tour. As many of them are canted in their slope.

Yet it still ranks top 10 in standard deviation of driving distance, which basically explains that players are still bombing away with driver. Now, the reason for that is in the past, Riviera was one of the more difficult driving courses on the PGA Tour because even though there was not much of a missed fairway penalty here, right? Like there's no water at Riviera. Kikuyu is tough, but...

It's not, I mean, I would rather personally as somebody that plays out of Kikuyu a lot, like Bermuda gives me way more challenges than Kikuyu. Um,

But Riviere was always one of the more difficult driving courses on the PGA Tour, both statistically and anecdotally, because the fairways were so difficult to hit and Riviere was long. So what would happen is you'd have these players really struggling to hit fairways and they'd be hitting these long irons out of Kikuyu.

Now Riviera, this iconic venue is statistically becoming one of the easier driving courses on tour because players now figure they're going to miss the fairway no matter what, sort of like Torrey Pines. And they're still going to be able to generate enough speed with their middle irons to not lose any advantage. Right? So this is a golf course with no hazards really. Um,

and really narrow fairways so what do players say to themselves when the fair this is the Rory McIlroy quoted O'Kell right what do players say to themselves when they're not even going to be able to hit the fairway anyway and the course is short enough that if they hit it in the rough they're still going to be able to generate enough speed to get some mid irons and wedges out of there they say let's hit driver all the time right and and I know Riviera doesn't get talk

spoken about as a bomb and gouge course the way that a Torrey Pines does. And I don't want to make it seem like a driver heavy approach, which I would say is beneficial at Riviera this day. These days means that Riviera is even in the same universe of golf course that Torrey Pines is. But, you know,

Times change, technology changes, golf courses, golf courses kind of start to get passed by. And, you know, the only way to restore the architectural identity of some of these American masterpieces is to address driver face technology and roll the ball back. OK, and Riviera is an example of how this works.

problem is manifesting in real time. Like literally statistically every single year, you're seeing more and more golfers just hit driver at Riviera. A lot of the strategy is being lost because they're able to carry these dog legs and now hit middle irons instead of long irons out of Kikuyu. So if you're looking for like a real time cited example of an American architectural masterpiece,

uh, being compromised in real time by driver face technology and a farther traveling golf ball. I'd worry a little bit about Riviera. Um, I still love it. It's still like a top three tournament to watch for me on tour. Uh, it's starting to, it doesn't play the way that it used to. It doesn't even play the way that it used to five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 years ago. Um,

Okay, so off the tee, and the stats bear that out too. Like you look at last year, every single one of the top six gained significantly to the field and driving distance. Okay, and three of the top six, including Rahm, Homan, Zalatorrez, lost fairly significantly in driving accuracy. Okay, so these guys are at the top of the leaderboard, bombing the ball off the tee, not hitting any fairways.

And in 2022, 10 of the top 12 gained in driving distance and only five of the top 12 gained in driving accuracy. Um, Neiman one losing significantly to the field and driving accuracy, Scott and Hovland both finished top five losing significantly to the field and accuracy. So, um,

you know, personally, maybe a way that I would get different from, for people, though. I know once I say this, people are going to run with it. I think this is like a, a massively advantageous distance course. And if you look at the numbers, the numbers are starting to show this year after year. I do not think distance is like the most important thing at Riviera, but I think that it is

way more important than people make it out to be. I think it's almost every bit as important at this golf courses. You know, it is at a golf course like Torrey Pines, right? Which gets talked about by everybody is like a bomb and gouge golf course. And, and Riviera to me is becoming that based on what I'm seeing in the numbers. So this is really every year I favor distance more and more in my model. And I continue to be

Kind of bummed that I saw the same things that I had been having this foreboding sense of doom about over the past couple of years where, man, this is just such a bomber's paradise at this point. Now, it's not driver wedge still. You are getting...

a ton of golf shots from 150 to 200 yards, almost 50%, and still a fair amount of golf shots from 200 yards plus. Okay. So, you know, it's not a wedge course. You actually barely have any shots from 125 to 150. We've just changed, you know, a lot of those shots that used to be coming from 200 yards ish are now coming from,

180 ish. Okay. And that makes a massive difference for these guys. I cannot emphasize the difference of a player being able to hit like an eight iron out of the rough versus a six iron out of the rough. And Riviera is still,

A very low greens and regulation percentage golf course. Okay. 55% greens and regulation, 9.2% below tour average. Each of the last four years, it's ranked inside the top five toughest greens to hit on the PGA tour. Why is that? The greens at Riviera, uh,

Not super big and very sloped, right? And still not a lot of wedges, okay? Just a lot of middle irons. You need to be like great from nine iron to six iron at Revere. And a lot of those nine iron to six irons are going to be hit from the rough. Wow, wouldn't it be great if we had a tool? This is the only database that has this. And I know because I'm familiar with all of them, have used all of them.

Very exclusively and spent a lot of time with all of them. What if we had a tool to identify rough proximity versus fairway proximity, right? This is something again, been hooting and hollering about on data golf for a while. You can't really build models the way that you can use that information and make it actionable the way that you can on the rabbit hole. So again,

It's a good example of like, this is a golf course where be careful with your proximity stuff. Like a lot of these guys are going to be hitting these weird iron shots from a weird Kikuyu rough, weird lies in Kikuyu rough, man. Wouldn't it be cool to be able to see the guys that have hit the best iron shots from Kikuyu rough. Okay. All that stuff. We've got all of it over there. Um, and then around the green, I think that,

Around the green certainly matters at Riviera. I would caution against people saying this is like a very hard course around the green. Statistically, that's actually not true. The degree of difficulty of around the green play at Riviera is actually nothing all that crazy, right? It's just volume. It's just a volume game at Riviera. It's the fact that so many players are going to be missing greens here. Um,

That just in terms of sheer volume, players are going to hit more short game shots on this golf course than they would on other golf courses. And I would say mainly the thing that you're going to want to look at is sand safe percentage. Short game is...

Like I said, incredibly important at Riviera on the sheer basis of volume, but the most difficult part of around the green at Riviera is the bunkers. So each of the last five years it has ranked as inside the top eight most difficult bunkers on tour.

And then in terms of putting, I've talked about this a fair amount when we've gone to other POA courses recently. So you know the drill. This is the same as Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach. It is going to consistently every single year. So get ready to tilt your guys.

Going to rank inside the top 10 in putting difficulty. Last year, Riviera ranked second. Like I mentioned, I would actually make the argument that Riviera is a much more difficult putting course than Torrey Pines. A much more difficult putting course than Pebble Beach because these greens actually have more character and these greens actually...

usually pay faster, right? Because you're kind of in a canyon, so you're getting more sunlight. So they're speedier. They're more undulating. Fourth out of 45 courses in putting difficulty inside 5 feet. Yikes. Second out of 45 courses in putting difficulty from 5 to 15 feet. So statistically, it's the second most difficult course to make putts from 5 to 15 feet. So don't be surprised. If a guy hits it to 7 feet at Riviera,

don't catch your chickens before they hatch. In terms of like scoring stats, I was looking at birdie or better percentage out of the rough rabbit hole stat because we just don't

don't see you it's 50 50 proposition to hit fairways here so who are the type of guys that can score out of the rough you can customize that for riviera specifically you can customize that for kikuyu rough specifically if you want to look at the best scores from the rough just on kikuyu for places like riviera and tory pines one of the things i looked about uh looked at it at

Riviera is scrambling. Now scrambling is a very misleading stat. Okay. A lot of people are going to look at scrambling and it's going to throw out stuff that isn't really actionable or useful at all. But one of the things that I was looking at was, okay, so Riviera features only a 54% greens and regulation percentage, right? So it's a really low greens and regulation percentage, right?

Now, who are the types of players who are the best scramblers on golf courses with a low greens and regulation percentage, right? Because it's like,

Do we really need scrambling stats from whether a guy got up and down on over-seeded Bermuda at the Amex if they missed a green by a yard? Get out of that stuff. I want to see the guys that are the best scramblers on golf courses with a low greens and regulation percent. Who are the guys, who are the types of players that are used to golf courses where it's challenging to hit greens and they still always find a way to score?

The rabbit hole has the ability to do that. No other site does. Okay, so I'll give you the top five in that. Matt Fitzpatrick, number one. Kind of not shocking, right? Kuchar, number two. Good scrambler. Brian Harmon, number three. Sungjae M, number four. Max Homa, five. Fleetwood, six. Rory McIlroy, seven.

Not super surprising because a lot of those guys have been awesome. Brendan Todd, eight Xander, nine speed, 10. First of all, a lot of those guys have been unbelievable at Riviera, right? And second of all, those are probably kind of the types of guys that you think of that are able to really scramble and tougher conditions and raise their baseline and tougher conditions. Now, last thing, let's talk a little bit about course history here. Third out of 38 courses in terms of correlation of course history.

with success, right? Augusta number one by a landslide. Why lie? Red Riviera. Those are the top three. Then you get a Bay Hill and TBC Scottsdale round out the top five. Uh, it is a nuanced course. Adam Scott is the only guy that won on his first appearance over the last two decades. Um,

And the thing about Riviera that is fun too, and the players, the TPC Sawgrass is a little bit like this as well, but just because you've been good at Riviera before, you can still absolutely miss the cut because it's hard. And if you're not in good form, it will expose you. This isn't like Pebble Beach or Colonial with Spieth where you can just show up with no form and content. Like Bubba's won a bunch here.

But he's also missed the cut here a bunch when he's not playing well. DJ has been awesome here. He's also had a couple of stinkers here. JT's had some great weeks here. He's also had some terrible ones. I remember Rory two years ago, Rose, uh, not playing good golf, but he had immaculate course history through like four appearances. He was like top 10 every single time. And he showed up to Riviera despite the course history. And he missed the cup badly because his game just wasn't there. So, uh,

you know, this is a week to look at course history, but I don't think it's the type of course where you can just say, Oh, this guy's played well here before. Um, I don't care about how he's playing now. Um, he always plays well at Riviera. I,

I would just be a little careful about that because this course can expose you pretty quickly. Um, and you still have to, you still have to execute. Right. Um, and Riviera's did extremely unique golf course, right? There's not a lot of comp courses that immediately come to mind. I, um,

frankly find it pretty insulting to Riviera to compare it to a lot of the other PGA Tour courses because it's operating on a much higher level in my opinion. If you want to look at Torrey or Pebble because of the POA, that's okay with me. I would probably just prefer to look at the putting at those courses instead of kind of the general history there. But the only one that I think you could make the best case for is Augusta. And I wouldn't even call Augusta like even a comp. I would describe it more as a

A lot of the same things you have to do well at Augusta. You also have to do well at Riviera, right? Putting inside 10 feet, short game, middle iron play. There's a lot of strategy and nuance involved because they're both golden age designs. I know the agronomy is different. I know the fairways are a hell of a lot wider at Augusta. It's a lot more of a...

Actually, not really anymore, to be honest. Ruby here is just as much of a driver course as Augusta now. And they kind of just do embody the same ethos where the emphasis, second shot, creativity, short game, have to work the ball both ways. You're not going to get a lot of flat wise and

That's why Bubba really likes both these places. DJ has one at both places. Hideki, Rory, Xander, Rom, Phil, Sal Torres, Xander. I said Xander already. Sergio, Adam Scott, all these guys, even like Cam Smith, Mark Leishman, um, top five at both the last two years, right? There's your Aussie connection again that Adam Scott was talking about with these courses in the sand belt, right? It's not a coincidence, right? Cause it's the same, same style of golf. Um,

And then outside of the Augusta connection, the only other comp course that really comes to mind is Southern Hills, host of the 2022 PGA Championship. Both are golden age designs where you're not going to have a ton of flat Ys, really undulating greens and deep bunkers, kind of similar scoring tests and stuff.

Just a ton of crossover on that leaderboard. Okay. Cameron Young finished top five at both Southern Hills and Riviera. Matt Fitzpatrick, top five at both. Justin Thomas. Justin Thomas has won the PGA as immaculate course history here. Willis Altoris, immaculate course history at Riviera. Was in the playoff at Southern Hills. Even Mito Pereira, top 15 in his only appearance at Southern Hills or at Riviera. So...

I threw all this together in my rabbit hole model, which you can check out on the rabbit hole. And here is who it shot out. Let's run through these guys real quick, and then I'll give you one or two early weeds, and then we'll get out of here. Actually, let's take a quick break, and then we'll give you the

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So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. Mint Mobile, unlimited premium wireless. I'm ready to get 30, 30, ready to get 30, ready to get 20, 20, 20, ready to get 20, 20, ready to get 15, 15, 15, 15, just 15 bucks a month. Sold. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes each detail. 20 in my model. Okay, we are back. So...

Top 20 in my model this week. Number one, Xander Shoffley. It's going to be a tough decision, but Xander to me is playing the most statistically complete golf right now. The reason I say statistically complete, he is...

Hitting the ball right now a lot better than Victor Hovland. There are major putting concerns still about Scotty Scheffler, especially anytime he gets onto greens that could send you backwards and allow you to lose confidence so quickly like Riviera. Kind of the same deal with Rory. Rory looked a little bit all out of sorts, both with his irons and kind of on the greens at Pebble Beach as well.

Max Homa questions about his ball striking right now. I watched him very closely. I'm not going to kill him too much for what he looked like in Phoenix. He kind of got a tough break with the draw, but a lot of questions in the way that Max Homa is playing right now, kind of the same deal with Patrick Cantlay in terms of Cantlay's irons have just looked a nudge off all year. Okay. And so Xander to me, even in struggling at Pebble Beach, he's,

You look at the way that he hit the ball, particularly on Sunday at Pebble Beach, and he is a lot more dialed right now from tee to green and on the greens.

than a lot of these other players. He's also Xander Shoffley and hasn't won a golf tournament in 18 months and is going to be priced unfairly. But to me, Xander Shoffley is playing the most statistically complete golf for this golf course. Okay. And you need a really complete game around Riviera. You need all things to be firing. Number two is Victor Hovland.

you know, when Victor Hovland's on, this is an incredible golf course for Victor Hovland. The problem with Rivian, and he's been excellent here. The problem with Victor Hovland right now is that,

He didn't even play Phoenix because he had so much stuff to work on back at home. Is this the golf course where you figure out your short game? It's not necessarily that Riviera around the green is super, super difficult. It's just even an iron player that's as good as Hovland, and his irons haven't been good this year, is going to miss a lot of greens. So you're just going to be relying on your short game a ton this week. Is this...

the spot where I was looking for maybe, you know, I'm not worried about Hovland long-term by any means. Like I still think he has a really good chance to win a major this year, but this isn't really like the soft landing spot that you want for Hovland, um, in terms of like, this is the type of course that is going to expose the things that he was really struggling with coming in. Um,

But if Hovland's hitting his irons well, he's still the best middle iron player in the world long-term along with Scheffler. So that will be an interesting one. He's been unbelievable at Riviera in the past without ever gaining strokes around the green here. Hovland has never gained strokes around the green in three appearances at Riviera. He's finished 4th, 5th, 20th, 3rd, Rory McIlroy, 4th.

Roy's been great here and, um, a good bounce back spot for Rory. Uh, I am a lot less concerned about the state of Rory's game than I am the state of Hovlands right now. Number four, Scotty, um, kind of went all in on Scotty last week in Phoenix, uh, from a draft Kings perspective. And yeah, I don't know how he's going to finish. I'd be shocked if he finished outside of the top eight, but, um,

Uh, the problem with why this is a tougher golf course, uh, for Scotty than Phoenix is, uh, because the POA greens are just not as advantageous to kind of the surface in Phoenix that he's had so much success on. Um, but again, great golf course for Scotty Scheffler. Number five, Max Homa, great golf course for Max Homa. He's obviously had a tremendous amount of success here. Six, Patrick Cantlay, uh,

I like Patrick Cantlay a lot, but I think that there is something's a bit off with the irons right now. And I think that might prevent me from betting him outright. I think he may still carry lower ownership, and we will see. LA guy, he loves this golf course. Seven, Fitzpatrick. I love Fitzpatrick here. Absolutely love Fitzpatrick here.

And he's playing well in Phoenix. Eight, Colin Markawa. Again, great golf course for Markawa. He's played well here in the past. We'll see. Fleetwood, nine. Good golf course for Tommy Fleetwood. Looks like he was in Vegas tightening some things up from a ball striking perspective. I think is a good spot for Fleetwood. Number 10, Cameron Young.

love this golf course for Cameron Young. Like he has the power off the tee and the middle iron play to really dominate here. And, um, he's been excellent here in two appearances, uh, and he's starting to play a lot better in Phoenix, right? So could be a week where we're back in on Cameron Young. Um, good spot for Cameron Young, 11 Wyndham Clark. We love Wendy. We always love Wendy. Wendy continues. I will continue to stand by this. Wendy, uh,

On this iteration of the PGA tour, like he's just a top 20 guy. He just is. He just is. Um, and he's proving it again this week, even coming off a win, uh, 12 Jordan Spieth. Spieth can win at Riviera. Um, he, he's been sneaky. Okay. Here. Uh, don't know if it's my favorite golf course or Spieth. I think it's a good golf course for Spieth. 13, Justin Thomas, uh,

If JT doesn't win this week in Phoenix, I'm certainly hoping he does. JT certainly live again at Riviera. Sahith the Gala, again, another great Sahith the Gala course. If he doesn't win in Phoenix, I think is another perfect spot for him. West Coast guy, Kikuyu, Poa, I mean,

Pepperdine is down the road from Riviera. I'm being a little liberal with down the road. It's in Malibu, but you can just hop on PCH and get from Pepperdine to Riviera in about 20 minutes. So I would imagine Sahith has had some, some good experience at Riviera outside of his professional golf days. And he, his, his,

During his professional golf, he's already finished six here last year as well. So these types of golf courses with Sahith, especially golf courses with a low missed fairway penalty where he doesn't have to worry about a lot of hazards, I think really good spot for Sahith. 16, Lucas Glover, man, that killed me. Did not catch the withdrawal in time to take him out of my lineups.

Lucas Culver is in 25% of my daily fantasy lineups. Probably we'll go right back to him again here, even though he hasn't been that great at Riviera. But his middle iron play is excellent, excellent, excellent. And he continues to pop for me statistically based on that middle iron play. 17, Will Zalatouris. I love Will Zalatouris this week at Riviera. This is a perfect golf course for Will Zalatouris. 18, Adam Scott.

Obviously, Adam Scott's won multiple times here. 19 JT post in, I think a good sneaky bounce back spot for post in. I just think you'll get him at a lot lower ownership than you have been getting JT post at because this doesn't feel as much like a JT post in course, but he's been sneaky good here. Sneaky okay here. 20 Hideki Matsuyama or sorry, 19 Hideki Matsuyama.

Another great Hideki course. I bet him this week. I played him heavily in DFS this week. He was part of my core. It's playing well. It's playing well. We'll see how he does over the weekend, but I think you can go back to Hideki and trust him here.

As much as one can trust a Ducky. 20 Ludwig. Ludwig's really fascinating to me this week. I have never bet on Ludwig. And I think a lot of people are in that predicament with Ludwig where he just got too good too quickly. There was never really a great opportunity to bet Ludwig at big numbers, really, on the golf courses that really favored Ludwig.

But this is a really good Ludwig litmus test because I love Riviera for Ludwig. Okay. I love his power off the tee here. I love his middle to long arm play. Now, he...

has had this really, really strong start to his POA putting career. Okay. Second and ninth at Torrey and pebble without having really any experience on those golf courses or really any professional experience on POA. He's gained, he's been putting really great on POA greens. Okay. And he's obviously been hitting the ball really well too. That's one of the things with Ludwig is,

Part of the reason he's been playing so well, I know he gets thought of as like this dominant driver of the ball, but Ludwig's been playing really well-rounded golf right now. Like his short game's been good. His iron's a bit good. He's been putting really well. So I would say I don't think you're going to get any form of discount on Ludwig right now coming off a runner up at Pebble Beach that, you know, I think there's probably a really good chance he would have won if they played golf on Sunday as much as I love Wyndham.

This is an unbelievable Ludwig golf course. Okay. And it all just comes down to whether or not you think he's ready to win this type of event. The only thing that would be holding me back is it's like, okay, is it, is it Ludwig's time yet to win this type of event? He has no course history here. Okay. Which has he's proven has not been a problem because he's just that good. Okay. But similar to Adam Scott in 2005, it's like,

If the guy's freaking amazing and he fits the skill set for Riviera, he's got a major, major advantage on this golf course due to his middle iron play. Seems like Ludwig looks way more comfortable on Poe right now than like Scottie or a lot of these guys. So...

I think for me, I'm going to continue to hammer off the top of the board at a golf course like Riviera. I don't know what's going to happen in Phoenix this week if we're going to get another surprise winner. Hopefully it's JT for me or Spieth and one and done Sheffler heavy and DFS. Hopefully it's one of those guys, whether it is or isn't, I'm going to attack the top of the board at Riviera still. And yeah,

We'll see what the Zander number is. He is the most statistically complete player for this test, in my opinion. We'll see what the Ludwig number is. And I think like Zander, Ludwig, Cantlay, Morikawa are probably my favorites in terms of the guys I'm looking at below 25 to 1. May just pick two of those guys.

I don't think I have the stones to bat Hovland. Uh, although I may use him in, in daily fantasy, if he's lower owned, uh, or Homa or Sheffler or Rory at their numbers. Um, but Fitzpatrick absolutely in play for me. Cameron young, absolutely in play for me. So hit absolutely in play for me, particularly if he doesn't win this week, JT. Yeah. If he doesn't win this week, certainly as well. Um,

I don't know if Zalator is going to win this type of event this quickly coming back from injury. I don't know. But I will provide far more coherent, well thought out thoughts in terms of where I am actually going.

in betting and daily fantasy on the Monday podcast with Ron Klaus. We are going to talk a lot more about the rabbit hole, how you can utilize the rabbit hole, how we break down Riviera. We're going to talk a lot more about Riviera, get into the betting board at Riviera.

Probably talk a lot about, we'll probably nerd out on data in general and why this is so important, why we're putting our names behind this tool and why we believe that if you're not looking at data this way, you're at a disadvantage. I've been at a huge advantage over the market looking at data this way for years. So is Ron. This just makes our life completely easier. And so you can go to the rabbit hole today,

That's Bert's golf.com use code. Andy, Andy,

For 25% off, okay, that's a lot. 25% off for, you could do it for a week, $7, okay? That's insane. I mean, the best value for a year is insane. Like only $150 to have that for a year. And we are going to add to this significantly over the years, over the next year in terms of what we're adding to it. Don't know if the price is going to stay the same. Don't know if my code's going to give 25% off.

Uh, in general, Ryan, Andy, uh, Ron, all the guys over at Betzberts were just kind enough to give me this huge discount code right off the bat. Cause like me, like they're being very selective with partnerships. Okay. This is about like we fit each other in terms of what I talk about, what Betzberts is trying to do. Like this is,

This is the data site for the ball knowers. Okay. This is the data site for the people that really want to get into the weeds and try and formulate an edge here. This is the data site that I would use. This is the only data site that I would use. So that's Bert's golf. That's Bert's golf.com promo code inside golf. Okay. Inside golf for 25% off on a week, a month,

a year, whatever you want to do, give it a shot. Hit me up with any questions. Would love feedback on it because it's very new. Okay. Love to hear what we could add, how we could make it more user friendly, what you'd like to see. And if you have any questions navigating it as well. I've spent extensive time now reviewing the product as of course I would before I put my name behind anything or talk this much about it on a podcast, entered a partnership like this. So

I'm really excited about this. I'm really fired up. I think it is going to create an edge in terms of the way that people are able to interpret and build models that a lot of people just haven't done before. I mean, this type of model building has been working for me for years. The proof is in the pudding. The results are there. I would not have any form of a career today. Forget...

all of the units I'm up and all that stuff. I just would not have any form of a career if I wasn't building models this way. And this is finally the site that's like, okay, we're going to, we're going to actually start looking at these things. So enjoy the Superbowl go 49ers. I really think the 49ers are going to win. I really do. My confidence level is, it's not like a, it's not like sky high, but,

I feel good about the Niners. I'm really excited for the game. I hope they get it done tomorrow. And hopefully we have some good Sunday, a good Sunday of golf in the lead into the Super Bowl as well. Enjoy the Super Bowl. Enjoy the golf. Enjoy the family time. Eat well. Sleep well tonight. Should be a fun weekend of sports. Fun next 24 hours of sports before we dive into the

Probably my favorite non-major PGA Tour golf tournament of the year that I will be at all four days as well. So if you're in the LA area, come over and stop by. Would love to meet you and enjoy some golf with you. All right, that'll do it for me. Cheers. Best of luck with your bets this weekend again, and we will see you next time.

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