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For their third round of golf, let's go Aaron Rye. We got a long day of golf ahead, so we'll just get this out there to you before the final round starts at the Wyndham to break down the St. Jude's. I've been doing a lot of summer golf travel, so I haven't gotten a chance to do a Sunday solo about the last two weeks, and I
As much as I dislike TPC Southland, and I'm not really a fan of the FedExCup playoffs in general for a number of reasons, I'm really excited for this tournament. Not really to watch it. I'll be traveling again next weekend.
But to bet it, I just feel really good about the players that I'm going to bet this week. Probably a bad thing. But I dove into this golf course pretty extensively the last couple of days. And often when I do this, I come to the conclusion after breaking down a golf course where it's really all just going to be number dependent for me on terms of where I could capitalize on some small edges. But this week I said, man, there are a lot of players where
I feel like I just got to bet them here, regardless of nearly any number. I feel that confident in some of their kind of the combination of their recent form and their course fit. And this is, you know, these are the guys this week. And I think a lot of that is because if you like to play a lot at the 3M, if you like to play a lot at LaGolf National, at even Sedgefield, there are a lot of similarities between
In TPC, to a lot of the golf courses that these guys have been playing for the last month, for the past month, basically dating back to the Open Championship, we've had four golf courses that emphasize accuracy over distance. We've had two of the last four golf courses in La Golf National and TPC Twin Cities be extremely water heavy. And we've had last week in Sedgefield be extremely
Southeast Bermuda, middle iron play, accuracy over distance. So TPC Southwind is kind of this culmination of a lot of courses and a lot of players that have been playing well over the last couple of months at similar golf courses. This golf course in Southwind is going to require a very similar skill set.
to what we've seen the past couple of weeks at TPC Twin Cities, at LaGolf National, at even Sedgefield, where less so Sedgefield, but certainly in the case of TPC Twin Cities and LaGolf National, water is a defining characteristic, accuracy over distance, middle iron play. It's kind of all coming to a head this week at TPC Southland, where it kind of feels like it's now or never, right? If Colin Markawa is going to win a golf tournament in the 2023-2024 season,
It's going to be this week. If Tom Kim is going to win a golf tournament in the 2023-2024 season, it's going to be this week. If Russell Henley is going to win a golf tournament this season, it's going to be this week. If Patrick Cantlay is going to win a golf tournament this season, it's going to be this week. If Corey Conner is going to do it, it's going to be this week. If Hideki is going to do it, it's going to be this week. If Fleetwood is going to do it, it's going to be this week. All these...
Accuracy over distance, middle iron guys, good on water heavy courses that are really close and playing well, but haven't quite come through. This is the final chance, right? Because I think next week we're going back to a 8,000 yard golf course. It's going to be heavily emphasizing power over accuracy. And Castle Pines, I was actually playing with a buddy yesterday who had played Castle Pines last summer.
And I think it's a golf course where, again, we're going to be looking at Rory and Wyndham Clark, right? And then way back skewing power over accuracy. And then you could go back to Eastlake. And based on the way that that tournament is going to be structured with the starting strokes, that one's probably looking like a Scheffler-Zander season finale duel, in my opinion. So there's this...
finality to this week in terms of the culmination of this stretch of accuracy, the tee and middle iron play where it's like with guys like Morikawa, Tom Kim, Corey Connors, Russell Henley, all these guys with this skill set are
It's now or never. So before we dive into the golf course to set the scene, we're heading to TPC Southland, the aforementioned TPC Southland this week for the FedEx St. Jude's championship, the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Beginning last year, the field was shortened to just 70 players, and this event will no longer feature a cut. It has undergone a number of structural changes over the years up until 2018. It was a regular PGA Tour event.
event which kind of attracted a middling field and then from 2018 to 2021 it was a WGC event which yielded a number of strong winners who you know are mostly now competing on the live tour players like Dustin Johnson Abraham Anser Brooks Koepka over the last two years it has been in the first leg of the FedExCup playoffs won by Will Zeltoros and Luke Sklover
who joined a long list of elite iron players to have won at TPC Southland. The 2024 iteration will once again be the FedEx Cup opener, and the top 50 players in the standings at this week's end will advance to the BMW Championship next week in Colorado.
We're headed to TPC Southland in Memphis, Tennessee. Ron Pritchard design. I can't tell you a lot more about Ron Pritchard's work. I dove into it a little bit. This was kind of a bit of a weird one-off for him. They had a PGA Tour redesign in 2004. It's a par 70 measuring 7,233 yards. Water comes into play on 11 holes. Zoysia grass fairway. Same type of fairways that we see at Eastlake.
Valhalla, TPC Craig Ranch, Belle Reve amongst others. 2.5 inch Bermuda grass rough, 4,300 square foot on average greens featuring champion Bermuda grass measuring 11 on the stem. And TPC Southwind is a very standard water heavy green.
TPC style Southeastern Bermuda golf course. It's very much a Bermuda grass version of what we recently saw at the 3M Open in Minnesota. And in my opinion, this is one of the worst examples of 1980s, the dark age of golf course architecture, very Americanized, very penal architecture that sacrifices strategic value in exchange for water hazards and
at every turn. And unfortunately, TPC Southwind is not even an entertaining or engaging version of Target like TPC Sawgrass. I will continue to use my small and in the grand scheme of things, non-influential voice to argue that this course is not fit to host a FedExCup playoff event.
It's even trending in the easier range. Last year, it hit record lows in approach difficulty and around the green difficulty, close to off the tee difficulty. It's becoming more outdated by the year. And one of the largest reasons, in my opinion, why the playoffs lack any form of juice or personality is
is that the venues that the PGA Tour are continuing to choose year after year, right? And at least long overdue, they finally made some changes to Eastlake. I'm cautious and optimistic that Eastlake...
will improve based on the changes that Andrew Green did. He made some changes, you know, some wonderful changes at Oak Hill, um, was very pleased with those. And I, I think he's a very talented restoration architect. Um, so I, I, you know, I'm going to withhold judgment on Eastlake, um,
But TPC Southwind, there's no excuse. At least the BMW Championship rotates amongst a number of interesting and new courses in the Northeast and Midwest.
but there is absolutely zero. I mean, this is a false wind golf course. Okay. Um, the host, the Sanford and farms here, there's absolutely zero reason or logic why the FedEx cup playoffs in August should host two of their three playoff events in the Southeast in fucking August when we already have, uh,
Florida swing when we already have a fall event in the southeast when we already have two more events in the southeast around Masters time going to the Heritage in South Carolina. Then it's completely redundant to go back to the southeast in August of all places. The playoffs should be hosted at Pebble Beach or Winged Foot.
Just to provide a few examples, you know what's beautiful this time of year in August? Southern California. You know, it's, I mean, this is a better, Pebble Beach is going to present better in August than it does in February. You know what else is wonderful this time of year? Northern California. If you wanted to go back to the Olympic Club or even TPC Harding Park, I'm less a fan of Harding Park than the Olympic Club, but
God, take us back to California this time of year. You know what else is wonderful this time of year? Chicago. You know what else is wonderful this time of year? New York. You know what else is wonderful this time of year? Boston. Why did we take a FedEx Cup playoff event out of Boston? Why are we not consistently going to New York? So what? I mean, it makes it's completely nonsensical. At the very least,
One event should rotate around the Midwest. Denver, Chicago, Michigan is phenomenal this time of year. One event should rotate around the Northeast, whether it's New York or Boston or Philly. I would be completely happy with two events in the Northeast. This is the time. This is why I'm in the Northeast at this time of year to play golf. This is the best time of year to play golf in the Northeast.
Golf in Westchester right now, golf in Western New York, at Oak Hill, in Boston. This is the best time to play golf in the Northeast. And we don't have one FedExCup playoff event showcasing the best area of golf in America, which is Long Island and the Northeast for our FedExCup playoffs. So you should have one in the Midwest, one around the Northeast, if not two.
And then one around Southern California, Northern California. This is the time to go back to Southern California and Northern California. You're not getting the marine layer in June that we saw at LACC. Go back to LACC this time of year. It's better. This is a better time to play Riviera in August than it is to play Riviera in February. It's firmer, faster. It's a great time to play golf in Northern California.
Eastlake and TPC Southwind as regular playoff stops in August is beyond nonsensical and redundant. These two southeastern Bermuda golf courses with zero personality is the dumbest fucking aspect of the PGA Tour schedule. And they have no one to blame but themselves for why the FedExCup playoffs lacks juice. No one to blame themselves.
Okay, that was cathartic. I needed to get that up my chest. Let's move on to TPC Southwind. So in terms of the actual golf course, TPC Southwind, standard par 70, four par threes, all measuring under 210 yards, but none of them are easy, all historically play over par.
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Just go to Indeed.com slash BlueWire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash BlueWire. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here from Intmobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down.
So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium Wireless. How did they get 30, 30, how did they get 30, how did they get 20, 20, 20, how did they get 20, 20, how did they get 15, 15, 15, 15, just 15 bucks a month? Sold! Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes each detail. The course features 12 par 4s.
None of them really being overly short or overly long. The shortest par four measures just 395 yards. Eight of the 12 par fours measure between 430 and 490 yards, which explains why nearly 7% of all approach shots come from between 125 and 200 yards. This is a pure middle iron test. It features incredibly...
Benign, banal, uninteresting, flat greens. Really easy greenside surrounds. Really easy bunkers.
Zero intrigue around the greens whatsoever. It is very similar to PGA National or TPC Twin Cities, where players need to keep the ball in play off the tee, avoid that sticky burrito rough and all of the water hazards, and get to work with their irons. This is target golf to a tee. It is a ball striker's paradise. It is a super easy putting course. Okay.
Okay. We saw Justin Thomas win at the golf course, losing strokes, putting, and it should not come as a surprise that these elite middle iron players, right?
Daniel Berger, Brooks Kappa, Justin Thomas, Abraham Anser, Will Zalatouris, Lucas Glover. These are the guys that are dominating TPC Southwind. Okay. And you look at all of the trend lines, right? And the players that are winning at this golf course are
They hit the ball straight off the tee. They're not necessarily bombers by any means. And more importantly, great middle iron players. Players that are hitting their iron well at this current moment. Similar to TPC Sawgrass, right? Zalatoris, awesome approach form heading in, right? Lucas Glover, coming off a win at Sedgefield. Led the field in approach. Gained over seven strokes in approach at Sedgefield.
This guy was coming in to this tournament, hitting his irons the best. What do you know? He won. Southeastern Bermuda. Keep the ball in playoff tee. Let your middle irons do the talking. You do not have to be a great putter. In fact...
You look at some of the commonalities here between Justin Thomas, Will Zaltoris, Lucas Glover, all of these guys, elite middle iron players, none of them particularly great putters, right? And that's why I think Colin Marcos was going to win this week because he fits so well in that Justin Thomas, Will Zaltoris, Lucas Glover mold of elite middle iron players don't have to be a great putter.
but in elite approach form. And I think off the tee is still a solidly important factor in the equation, right? Although it is trending on the easier side in terms of off the tee difficulty, it ranked middle of the pack and off the tee difficulty, 13th out of 45 courses in Miss Fairway penalty. So there is...
a pretty high miss fairway penalty on this golf course, right? It's trending in the easier direction. Now as players lower their dispersion patterns and get more and more accurate, get longer, the golf course play shorter. They don't have to hit as many drivers. Um,
But it still features a high-influence fairway penalty and rough penalty where accuracy off the tee is important. This is an accuracy over a distance golf course. Part of the reason for that is the delta between zoysiagrass and bermudagrass. That delta is really, really stark. It is really easy to...
to score and attack from zoysia grass fairways, play like carpet. And it is very challenging to attack from sticky Bermuda rough. And this is not uncommon at other southeastern Bermuda tracks, such as Eastlake and Sedgefield. Anytime we get to southeastern Bermuda with thicker Bermuda rough, and particularly zoysia fairways, just like Eastlake,
You're not going to bomb gouge those golf courses because, and I talked about this at Sedgefield, it's better to be in the fairway hitting a wedge from you watch it all week at Eastlake this year, where it's just so hard. You can play offense at Sedgefield from the fairways, but from the rough, you can't really play offense, right? You're at mercy to the Bermuda rough. And that's why these type of Southeastern golf courses can't be bombing gouts. And especially when it's really hot and,
um players really struggle to create a predictable outcome out of bermuda um and you saw with the rainfall i mean the golf course is going to play soft because this area as we saw at sedgefield has still gotten a lot of rainfall over the past week or two um but the rough is a little spicier right um and that's going to play in starker contrast to the incredibly pure zoysia fairways and you look at it last year
Of the top 23 players last year, 10 lost to the field in driving distance, 6 lost in driving accuracy. Adam Schenck was the only player to finish top 10 last year losing in driving accuracy because it's just so hard to attack this golf course from the rough. The prior year, 6 of the top 10 lost to the field in driving distance.
Driving distance did not matter here at all, including Sepp Straka, Lucas Glover, Brian Harmon, Andrew Putnam, and Colin Morikawa, while just three lost in driving accuracy. Zalator's broke the mold a little bit in terms of ranking field average in driving accuracy. It was kind of a singular A-plus performance in terms of approach play out of the rough.
And he certainly made the most of his fairway chances. But still, last year, bit of a return to form. All of the top four finishers last year ranked top 15 in driving accuracy, with Fleetwood and Glover both ranking outside the top 60 in driving distance.
So as Zalatoris showed us, you know, it's possible to win here without being incredibly accurate off the tee, but it just makes the path to victory that much more challenging, right? Zalatoris had a nearly perfect approach performance. And part of the reason was because he did such a good job taking advantage of his approach shots from the fairway, really capitalized on those opportunities and
and he hit a ton of greens from the rough last year which is hard to do and probably not sustainable long term at this golf course but step one is to keep the ball and play off the tee this tournament is really one with approach play um i've got a standard weight on total driving 65 and emphasis on accuracy over distance um but that's kind of step one and then this is really just a pure
Middle iron approach golf course. This tournament is all about iron play. 2020, Justin Thomas, best iron player in the world at the time. He won because of lead iron play. Brooks Koepka finished second, gained 8.4 on approach. The only two players in the top 15 that year who didn't hit their irons well, Xander and Matt Fitzpatrick, are
Those guys gained a combined 13.4 strokes putting. 2021, top five players on the leaderboard all gained over four strokes in approach. The only two players in the top 12 who did not hit their irons well, Cameron Smith and Jordan Spieth, both gained over five strokes putting. Two years ago, Zalators gained almost eight strokes on approach, first in the field in approach play.
So as important as it is to keep the ball in play off the tee,
Each of the last five years, winners, top five, top 10, top 20 pitchers have gained double on approach what they have off the tee and more on approach than what they have putting, which is not always the case. And we're talking about 70, 75%.
of approach shots coming between 125 and 200 yards. So this is a pure middle iron test. Step one, keep the ball in play off the tee.
accuracy over distance, but you really, really got to let your irons do the talking here. And I really think you do not need to be some great, some elite putter, right? So it's fairly straightforward this week. It's not an entirely different handicap than LaGolf National or TPT. It's kind of this mix of Sawgrass, LaGolf National, TPC Twin Cities, right?
Honda Classic and PGA National, Innisbrook. Eastlake is a little bit less water heavy, but it's still kind of that same accuracy over distance. Middle iron play, Southeastern Bermuda don't necessarily need to be an elite putter. Eastlake, I guess, features slightly more character driven Donald Ross greens, but still middle iron play, accuracy over distance.
That's it this week. It's fairly straightforward. And I feel, for better or worse, incredibly confident in the players that I'm betting this week. So let's run through the model. And then I want to talk about a lot of these guys because I think some of these players are fairly interesting to talk about. Number one, Scotty Scheffler. It's a little bit surprising that Scotty Scheffler does not have better golf course history here at TPC Southland. This is not...
Scheffler's played here a couple times and he's never finished top 10. This has not been a golf course that Scott Scheffler has historically dominated at. I think there's a very good chance that changes this week. This golf course is right up Scottie Scheffler's alley. In terms of types of golf courses that allow Scottie Scheffler to start on second base,
This has all of the hallmarks of that. Okay. You want Scotty Scheffler on golf courses that have very easy greens. DPC Southwind has very easy greens. You want Scotty Scheffler on golf courses that emphasize accuracy over distance.
His biggest weapon with his driver is more his accuracy than his distance. Okay. That's why he's played so well at these water heavy golf courses with these clearly defined hazards.
like TPC Sawgrass, like Golf National, like Mirafield Village, okay? You want to play Scotty Scheffler on water-heavy golf courses with clearly defined hazards, okay? Scotty Scheffler is really good with predictable outcomes, right? Okay, so golf courses that feature a lot of water where Scotty knows, okay, if I hit it in the water, that's not good, okay?
But if I hit him in the fairway, there's a massive, massive delta, right? And I think that's maybe a little bit why he struggled more so at Pinehurst. It's a bit less of a predictable outcome with the undulations around the greens and kind of the variability out of the hazards. These are the golf courses that you want to play Scottie Scheffler on that emphasize middle iron play, that you don't need to putt well here to win. Those are all the hallmarked.
Of a Scotty Sheffler golf course. Right? And he's coming off an Olympic gold medal where he gained 10.3 strokes on approach. Okay? This is the best ball striking performance of the season for Scotty Sheffler. Okay? He gained more strokes ball striking.
At the Olympics last week, then he did the Memorial. Somehow, Scottie Scheffler gave us his best ball striking performance of the season at the Olympics. Okay, so it's possible. Scottie Scheffler is peaking now. A wild thing to say, but from a ball striking perspective, it's his best ball striking performance of the season. He's gained over 10 strokes ball striking in back-to-back starts.
He has not gained less than six strokes ball striking. Plus six ball striking is an elite ball striking performance. Over the course of a four-day tournament, you're picking up over six strokes to the field just off the Tiana approach. That's an elite ball striking performance. A guy does that once or twice a season. Pretty good. Pretty impressive. Scottie has done it every single week since Riviera. Okay? Okay.
17 starts this year, 16 top 25s, 15 top tens, seven wins. He is hovering around a 40% win percentage. And now he's going to a golf course that emphasizes his skillset perfectly. He's with like a 40% win probability. Um,
My numbers, my true odds on Scottie Scheffler this week are like plus 250. I'm not going to bet him, even if he's 4-1. But in a 70-man field, gosh, my numbers love Scottie Scheffler on this golf course. Hot take. I think the biggest case against Scheffler this week, I think the thing that you can hang your hat on
in not betting Sheffler this week, even, you know, just like the Olympics, right? Like, I don't, I don't know what Scotty's odds were at the Olympics four to one when Scotty's over four to one in a 60 to 70 demand field that shows his value to me now, which is wild. Um, but he's hovering around like a 40% chance to win, uh,
lot of these tournaments based on my numbers but the one thing you're hanging your hat on if you're not being Sheffler which I won't be putter is still now he can win this golf the the easy counter argument to that is he can easily win this golf tournament as a as a negative putter he does not need to putt to field average to win this golf tournament so you're kind of hoping that Scottie Lewis is
six strokes on the greens like he did at Pinehurst, right? Like you probably loses three or four strokes around the greens and he's still in the top 10. But that's kind of what you're hoping for is that this is pure Bermuda. Scottie isn't always great on pure Bermuda. He's had some difficulty putting on these greens in the past.
The last time that he was on pure Bermuda, he had his worst putting performance of the year at Pinehurst. He's also putted well on pure Bermuda this year. He won the Arnold Palmer on pure Bermuda. He putted solidly at Houston on pure Bermuda. But I guess the anti-Shefflor case is that
On pure Bermuda, there's a low floor in terms of what he could lose putting, right? So I think you're kind of maybe saying, well, minus six putting from Scheffler on these greens is in the range of outcomes. And if he loses minus six strokes putting, he won't finish in the top ten. And if he even loses three strokes putting, he probably won't win.
He definitely won't win if he loses three-stroke putting, but he could lose one-stroke putting and win. So that's Scottie. Two in my model is Xander. And I do have a sizable difference between Xander and Scottie based on my numbers. Xander coming off one of his more mediocre performances of the season at the Olympics from a ball striking perspective.
Xander is a lot less accurate off the tee than Scottie. Now it's all relative, right? Xander's a great driver of the ball. He's a great total driver of the ball, but he is not remotely as accurate off the tee as Scottie. He's not as good of a middle iron player as Scottie. He doesn't have as good of a short game as Scottie, but he's a much better putter. He's a much better putter than Scottie. And because of that,
God, it's hard. My numbers still have Xander finishing in the top 10 of this tournament 75-ish, 80% of the time.
You know, he's figured out the Bermuda thing. I think we used to think of Xander as far more of a bent grass guy, and I still love him on bent grass. Xander has totally figured out the Bermuda thing. He put it well at Pinehurst this year. He's been unbelievable at Eastlake. He's become one of the best players in the Southeast. Between Eastlake, he's played well at Valspar before. He's played well at Augusta. He's played well at Pinehurst.
Scheffler scares me way more. But if you start to see any ownership drop on Xander, any opportunity...
Buy. Take it. Because it's very difficult to simulate this tournament 1,000 times and not see him finishing top 10. Again, 75%-ish, 80% of the time. Number three in my model is Rory. And I think Rory, I'm not betting any of these three, but I think from a DFS perspective, assuming that Rory, Scheffler, and Zander are...
will be the three highest-priced players. I think I'm most inclined to play Rory of those three because I think based on price...
Rory will hopefully allow me to play some of the other guys that I love that I'm about to talk about, like Cantlay and Morikawa and some of the guys in the high eights that I believe, like Tom Kim, Corey Connors, and his great by low spot for Victor Hovland. I really like Sam Burns this week. Briefly touch on all of those guys. But
I think with Rory and I don't know how popular that he's going to be this week. Um, but I'm, I'm taking a guess that he'll be still, you know, cheaper than Xander and Sheffler and both, um, cheaper than Xander and Sheffler and also lower on the Xander and Sheffler. And I, I haven't played Rory the, the past couple of weeks. Um,
Did not play him at the Scottish Open. Did not play him at the Open Championship. Did not play him at the Olympics. And I think it's—I'm kind of more of a buy now on Rory after a little bit of a prolonged absence. He hit the ball insanely well at the Olympics. Insanely well. 4.2 off the tee, 6.9 on approach. Lost .8 putting. Yeah.
Rory hits his irons so well at this golf course. And I don't know if it's the Zoysia grass, but Rory, four top 12 finishes and seven appearances at TPC Southwind, third last year, fourth in 2019. I know that it's more of an accuracy over distance golf course for Rory. So I'm sure some folks will be waiting for Castle Pines and
If there is opportunity on Rory this week from an ownership standpoint, I've got a big buy next to his name. Third in the Southeast. Great on Zoysia Grass. Coming off an absolutely elite ball-striking performance at the Olympics. No, my numbers don't like him as much as they like Scotty and Xander. But if you get that price and ownership discount...
I think it's a worthy buy on him, mainly because there's so many players in the 8s and the 9k range, presumably, that I love this week. That I just worry that if I go all in on a Scheffler or Zander, as sound as that case was that I just made for Scheffler,
it's going to completely inhibit the way that I want to build the rest of my lineups, which creates potentially this opportunity on Rory. I'm hoping I'll be able to fit Rory and Colin and Tom Kim in a lineup reasonably, or Rory and Colin and Connors and Henley in a lineup reasonably. We don't know. I don't know what the pricing will be. I have my pricing, but we'll see. And I think the biggest concern that I have with Rory is,
Similar to Scheffler is just from a pure data perspective, I'm not even cycle analyzing how Rory feels. Maybe there's not necessarily a big enough sample size, but we've now had 12 rounds of golf since Rory McIlroy missed two short putts on the last four holes to lose the US Open. And you could tell me that Rory has completely moved on.
The putter is not as in his head. The short putting is not in his head. The stats do not reflect that. Rory has not putted even close to field average since blowing the U.S. Open with short putts. Okay, so I think the thing that Rory could have done coming off the U.S. Open is show us with his putting. Okay, it's a blip in the radar. You don't have to worry about my short putting.
It's kind of been the opposite. It hasn't been an abject disaster, but he has not putted well whatsoever in three rounds since Sunday back nine at Meinhurst. So, you know, again, whatever you want to say about how the U.S. Open is mentally affecting the direct aftermath of that U.S. Open on Rory McIlroy's game is,
He's hitting the ball as well as he has all season. But he's still missing a lot of short putts. He's still not putting well. And I think that would be the strongest. Again, you don't have to putt well at this golf course. Easy putt.
Easy putting course. He's putted well on Champion Bermuda in the past. He's putted well at this golf course in the past. He's putted amazing on Champion Bermuda. Golf courses like Quail Hollow. Played amazing in the Southeast. He's three wins at Eastlake. He's won the Honda Classic. A phenomenal Rory spot. Phenomenal, phenomenal Rory spot. If I wasn't so high on Colin Murakawa and a couple of the other guys, I would bet him.
Number four in the model, Russell Henley. You know what? I'm just going to run through the top 20 and then I'm going to talk about a few guys at the very end that will be on my betting card. Number four, Russell Henley, my guy. Gosh, what a win for data it would be.
If Russell, if this was it for Russell Henley, what a win for data will be more on him later. Number five, Victor Hovland. That's surprising. I think there's a really good by low spot on Hovland. Really, really good by low spot on Hovland. I think if Hovland is going to turn it around this year, it's going to be now because this type of water heavy, uh,
Easy greens, easier around the greens, middle iron play and total driving. This is a very, very, very good Victor Hovland golf course. And I think it's a good buy low spot for him. You're going to be looking to find some leverage in a 70-man field. I got a big buy sign on Hovland.
Six, Tommy Fleetwood. Seven, Ludwig O'Bear. Both phenomenal players and phenomenal fits for this golf course. That will not make my betting card, unfortunately, or potentially even my DFS pool. You just can't play them all. Eight, Colin Markala. More on him later. Nine, Shane Lowry. Ten, my guy, Sepp Strzoka, who largely disappointed us at the Wyndham.
or excuse me, at the Olympics, 11 Patrick Cantlay, who I love this week. Again, I think this is an if-not-now-then-when situation for Patrick Cantlay. I'm quite hot on Patrick Cantlay at this golf course, but I don't think I'll make my betting card. 12 Tony Fina, I'm a little bit lower on him. 13 Sung Jam, sure. 14 JT.
I've got some skepticism there. 15, Brian Harmon, 16, Ben Griffin. That's a good, I don't know how much I'd find him as a sleeper. We bet him at the Wyndham. He's playing well. We'll see how he finishes at the Wyndham. A lot of golf left. 17, Tom Kim.
hugely hugely in on tom kinden this week a little more on him later 18 corey cost 19 benny on 20 hideki matsuyama not a ton of huge surprises here so there's just three guys that i want to touch on briefly uh before we finish up and and this will be my betting card right i i feel pretty confidently that i should be able to fit these three guys on a betting card but
These are players that I've been riding. These are players that I've had a lot of success on from a DFS standpoint. Gosh, I wish I had room for Corey Connors too, because he fits into this category beautifully. But these are phenomenal golf course fits, played well at this golf course before, are very accurate off the tee. Elite middle iron players. Yeah.
playing great golf right now and fit the mold beautifully for what I'm looking for this week. So let's start with your winner of the 2024 FedEx St. Jude's. I picked him to win the Olympics. I'm doubling down. Your winner this week is Colin Morikawa. So
Based on the way that he's played this year, it's hard for me to wrap my head around the concept of him not ending the 2024 season without a trophy. I know he won the Zozo in the fall, but he has played such phenomenally consistent golf this year. And even in a disappointing 24th place finish at the Olympics, he
Morikawa recorded his best iron week of the entire season. Morikawa gained 7.3 strokes on approach at the Olympics. He's now gained over six strokes on approach in back-to-back weeks at the Open Championship and the Olympics. And we are beginning to see something out of Morikawa that is vintage, right? The reason that Morikawa has played such good golf all year is not because he's been
a top three iron player in the world. Morikawa has not remotely been as good on approach as a Scheffler or Zander or even a Corey Connors. He's been a great iron player, not a top five iron player in the world. The reason why he's played so great is because we've gotten his best short game and putting season that we've seen out of him. Over the last two weeks, Morikawa has gotten back to his roots, which is top three iron
top five iron player in the world. Um, and the reason why he significantly raised his four this year to 2024, again, that super well-rounded skillset where you've seen, uh, the around the green play and the putting dramatically improve. And that's why he hasn't finished outside of the top 25 in a tournament since prior to the masters. Um,
But the strongest aspect of Morikawa's game, I think this has held him back from winning, is that his irons have not quite been at their elite, elite levels this year until the last two weeks. And now he's traveling to another golf course that heavily emphasizes distance over accuracy and middle iron play.
It is not a golf course that requires elite putting or short game skill. And you look at Morikawa and these other water heavy golf courses, your Muirfield Villages, your accuracy over distance. And for all the reasons why we loved him at Golf National, another water heavy golf course with clearly defined hazards, pretty easy around the greens, pretty easy putting.
You should love him even more at an Americanized version of this test where he's finished top 15 in his last two appearances. So I know that Mark Callow was a popular bet at LaGolf Nationale, and he let a lot of people down. If you loved him at LaGolf Nationale,
You should love him even more at this golf course. Okay. I know you didn't putt well at LaGolf National, but he had his best iron week of the season. And now he's going to a golf course that requires a very similar skill set to LaGolf National that he has great course history at. Hopefully you get a little bit of a better number. Hang on. Don't, don't drop off before the miracle happens. This is,
This is calling Morikawa to a T, this golf course. And there's a long history of elite approach players, substandard putting, dating back to Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Will Zaltors, Lucas Glover. These are your TPC Southwind winners. Morikawa is the next man in line. The next guy that, do I think he's going to win this tournament? I don't.
But there is no way that I can hop off this guy after I've been banging the drum for him, dating all the way back to last year's Ryder Cup. I think myself and DataGolf...
are the biggest Russell Henley fans in the universe in terms of... Data Golf has him as the seventh best player in the world. And he's obviously not the seventh best player in the world. But if you just look at pure numbers, Russell Henley is so, so, so, so, so good at golf. And we had him at the Open. I really thought he could have won the Open. He hit the ball.
better than every single player in the field at the Open Championship with not the best weather draw outside of Scotty Scheffler. He was the only guy that hit the ball better than Russell Henley at the Open Championship. He gained 11 strokes ball striking at the Open Championship. He is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball. He's one of the best middle iron players in this field.
He's got six top 10 finishes this year, including a seventh at the U.S. Open on Bermuda, where he showed his putting upside on Bermuda. He can gain nine strokes putting on Bermuda any given week and win a golf tournament. Now we get Russell Henley back on Bermuda on an accuracy golf course, where he finished seventh last year. Now he's back in the Southeast, his favorite part of the country.
one of the most accurate drivers of the ball, one of the best short to middle arm players in the field. He's been really good at these types of golf courses in the past. If there's ever going to be a win for data, a win for a player that the data says, no, this guy put some respect on his name. This is the spot. This is the golf course. He's already done it for us. He's finished top 10 in his last two major championships in
At 67 and 6900, a key piece for us in both. Our guy, some respect on Russell Henley's name. I can't hop off now. You can't do it. Is he probably going to regress? Of course. But I could not live with myself.
After what I'm seeing in the numbers, after how much I've rode this guy, if I did not bet Russell Henley this week, this would be the biggest. If Russell Henley, I'm being hyperbolic, okay? If Russell Henley wins the FedEx St. Jude's, it's the biggest win for data since the invention of strokes gained. I'm laying down a marker. Okay, Tom Kim. I love Tom Kim at this golf course.
I think Tom Kim, we're really high on him at the Olympics. I think Tom Kim, the numbers just don't love him as much as Henley. I think he's more likely to win this tournament than Russell Henley because he's done it before. I mean, both of these guys are phenomenal Wyndham guys. So they love this accuracy over distance, southeastern Bermuda, this time of year, this part of the country, this type of agronomy. They know how to control their irons out of sticky Bermuda roughs.
They drive the ball in play. Tom Kim, very accurate driver of the ball. And you look at what he did at the Olympics, the numbers on Tom Kim from the Olympics, man, oh man, gained two off the tee, eight on approach. It was Kim's best ball striking performance of the entire season. Even better than his runner up at the Travelers was the way that Tom Kim hit the ball at the Olympics. He's played great all season.
Even better the last couple of months. He's due for a win. He's played well at this golf course before. He's coming off an elite approach performance. What do we talk about? The guys that win TPC Southwind. What were we seeing from Will Zalatorrez and Lucas Glover?
The last two years, right before they won at TPC Southwind, elite approach performances. That's why I'm playing the two guys not named Scott Scheffler that...
So, I mean, those three guys I just talked about, Henley didn't play in the Olympics. He gained over six strokes on approach. I mean, the three guys on my betting card this week all gained over six strokes on approach in their last start. Tom Kim, Colin Markala had their best iron weeks of the season at the Olympics. They finished second and third in this field in an approach play to Scotty Scheffler at the Olympics. Like, that's how you win at TBC Southland. That is the formula, is win.
who are accurate drivers that are hitting the ball with their irons unbelievably well right now. That is your winner at TBC Southland. That is what has historically happened at this golf course. And the boxes that Tom Kim and Morikawa and Russell Henley took in terms of the history on Southeastern Bermuda, the easy putting course, the recent approach plays, the big thing, the spike approach play,
In your last appearance, I mean, we've seen how important it is. Kuchar's doing it this week at the Wyndham. Again, Kuchar coming off this giant spike approach performance at the 3M Open in contention to win the Wyndham the next week. My three guys are all guys that drive the ball in play, have played well at this golf course before, have played well in the Southeast before.
aren't necessarily the best putters, but have shown putting upside and won on Bermuda in the past, won on Graney Bermuda in the past, and are coming off at bare minimum a plus six approach week in their last start. Tom Kim, Russell Henley, Colin Morikawa. Those are the guys. Those guys check the most boxes. It's going to be frustrating if Sheffield wins this week because, again,
This is like one of those weeks where no idea what the outcome will be, but this is one of those weeks where there's three players for me that make so much sense from a data perspective that like, I just have so much confidence in to be there in a non shuffle or week. And at the end of the day,
None of them are on the level of Scheffler still. So it would be really, it would be a huge bummer because Russell Henley deserves to win this golf tournament based on the way he's played this year and his course fit. Colin Maracalo deserves to win this golf tournament. Tom Kim deserves to win this golf tournament. There are a lot of players that just missed the cut for me that I really like. This is a phenomenal spot for Patrick Cantlie. This is a phenomenal spot for Corey Connors.
It's a phenomenal spot for Sepp Straka, who hit his irons unbelievably well at the Olympics. This is a great Rory spot to bounce back. I think it's a phenomenal buy low on Hovland. But those are my guys. Henley, Morikawa, Tom Kim. In DraftKings, a little bit more of Cantlay, Rory and Hovland, Connors, Burns, Straka. Those are my guys. Henley, Morikawa, Tom Kim.
Let's get it done this week. Feeling good about it. All right. Uh, enjoy the rest of the Wyndham championship. We got a long, fun day of golf. Felt good to get back in the mix with a son. Pop particularly doesn't happen, uh, every single week where I feel so good about, um, my breakdown and the reasoning and the, the, the guys that I would want to bet. Um,
So I'm, I'm pumped for that. I'm not going to get to watch a ton of it. Maybe traveling again next weekend, but I'm super, super excited to bet it. Um,
BetSportsGolf.com to see the full model. RunPureSports.com to hop into Discord with me, sweat golf, and ask me any further questions you have over these next couple of weeks to conclude the summer season. We'll be kicking it fall swing as well. That continues to be a tremendous edge for
Hit three winners last year during the fall swing and a plus 15 unit Ryder Cup, massive Ryder Cup week to this day, my best tournament of the season. Hopefully we can rekindle some of that magic at the President's Cup. So,
We're still going. You know, I've been diving into football, creating my football model a little bit, but there's still plenty, plenty, plenty of money to be made this golf season. Hopefully we get another one home at the window. I'm a nice little six of six in the single entry as well that need my guy Seamus power and sneaky Keegan to start making some moves. But thanks for listening. Enjoy the golf.
uh this afternoon best of luck with your bets and we'll see you next time cheers
