2024 Farmers Insurance Open Preview
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All four of the main core are through to the weekend and in prime position. Another week where every single one of our matchups are leading heading into Sunday. Last week, we went eight and two in the matchups. This week, we are up in all four with the big stands being plus 180 on Cantlay and Shoffley over Scheffler. That was a big thing that we talked about all week is the Disgusting Brothers are under-owned at this golf course compared to Scheffler.

and Sungjae and Tom Kim. So I almost locked both of them. And I know a lot of discord members that did the same and pivoted off of that Sheffler chalk and Sungjae chalk and have themselves a nice little sweat heading into tomorrow with our Norn and windy sea and Smalley and best core. So let's hope for the best tomorrow. I'm recording this on a Saturday. I'm not going to count out the possibility of Scotty shooting minus nine tomorrow and the,

Disgusting brothers pooping down their legs. I've seen that movie before, but it's Saturday night. So I am absolutely liable to look dumb tomorrow, but we got a bunch of nice sweats again, heading into Sunday, which is all you can ask for. Right. So we'd love to have you come join the community. We are talking and sweating golf in there 24 seven. You've got access to all of my info online.

All of my bets, projections, ownership, showdown content, matchup markets, premium shows. It is a golf community breaking down every angle of every tournament 24-7. Me and Wiley tilting our butts off. It's a lot of fun. So runpearsports.com, promo code ANDY.

We would love to have you. Hey, shoot me a message too in the Discord if you join, and I'll introduce you to the gang. Let me know if you have any questions, any way that I can help. So try it out for a week. See how you feel. Okay, let's talk Torrey Pines.

I'm incredibly excited for this tournament, even though I don't like this golf course at all, both from an architectural standpoint and a spectator standpoint. This is a really terrible event to go to as a spectator. The routing of the course based on where the parking lot is and where you enter is very convoluted and inconvenient. And yet I...

still for some crazy reason, I go every single year. I absolutely love going to this tournament. This is my fourth time going, uh, including the U S open. I went to the U S open here in 2021. I know the course really well. Most of the holes are the same. Uh, but I feel like I have a really good beat on this golf course. Uh, I went back and checked my records and

This was actually before I had a podcast or any Twitter presence, but I still have everything recorded. I went back and looked. Did not do... It was List and then Homa. But the prior year, it was that US Open. That was my first...

actual big DraftKings week ever was that US Open here in 2021. Shout out 1% Francesco Molinari. So I think this is a relatively easy tournament to figure out. I don't think this is one of those tournaments like last week, the American Express, where every single player in the field could win. I do think you need to possess a certain skill set here because this is a golf course where

that asks the same question to you over and over again. It's a difficult question to answer, and there are some exceptions to it as well, which I will elaborate on. But it's the same question being asked over and over again, and I'll explain what I mean about that in just a second. Let's talk about some of the basics. So

Torrey Pines in San Diego. It's a 36-hole public golf facility owned by the city of San Diego. I played this golf course about a year and a half ago. I would say if you are a resident of San Diego, absolutely worth it. If you are not a resident of San Diego, probably one of the more overpriced golf experiences I've had in my life.

Torrey Pines Doral, probably like the two most overpriced golf experiences I've had for what the golf course actually is. But it's a wonderful walk, right? It's a beautiful walk. And that's one of the main reasons outside of the fact that I just love San Diego and still have a bunch of friends over there, but it's still a beautiful walk. I think it is a travesty, the misuse of land, right? I think that this is a golf course that is on the,

one of the more beautiful stretches of coastline on the Pacific ocean in the country. And you're not going to see this golf course anywhere near the top 200 of any golf course ranking or ever be mentioned in, in architecture circles everywhere, which is a pretty massive indictment of the architecture because this is a beautiful piece of land and,

And if I had it my way, I would scrap the whole thing, start from scratch and use the land in a completely different way. And that's a whole other podcast, but I'd give my left leg to see what a Gil Hans or Tom Doaker or my friend Jay Blossie could do with this piece of land. Um,

Because it's on a, it's on a great stretch of the Pacific ocean and you actually have coastline here. It's just the way that this golf course is routed. It's such a poorly routed golf course. It doesn't, it really doesn't use the, uh, the coastline, uh,

in half the way that it could. Anyway, I digress. They've got a North course and a South course. The South course is a lot harder. That's a U.S. Open course. And the players are going to split their first 36 holes between the North course and the South courses. And then they're going to play their final 36 holes on the South course. So three rounds at the South course. And for the most part, you want to be looking at the South course, right? The South course is

It's getting 75% of the action this week. And we'll talk a little bit about the North course, but for the most part, with three of the four rounds on the South course, that's where the majority of my stats will be from. So looking at former winners, Homa, List, Reed, Leishman, Rose, Day, Rahm, Snedeker, Day, Stallings. What sticks out here? By the way, every single one of those guys...

between six and 15 under, right? So you're actually going to test pros this week.

which will be a nice departure from what we've seen the first couple of weeks of the season. Here's the thing that is going to illustrate my point about this golf course. And my main point about this golf course of why this is the easiest week of PGA tour handicap. This is such an easy golf course to handicap in my opinion, probably why I've had so much success here. And probably why a lot of people in the golf community have had success here. Like I,

Homa, I was not on Homa last year. I'm pretty sure it was a really popular bet last year at like 21-1. The Luke last year, I remember...

He was 80-1, but still, popular bat. Luke Liss, I remember that year, was number two in my model. And I said, there's no way Luke Liss can win a golf tournament. But everybody saw, I mean, Liss Zalatoris is like the token Torrey Pines skill set. And I'll get into what that means a little bit later. But the main takeaway here from looking through this

These last couple of editions of the tournament, six of the last 10 winners have been under 25 to one. Okay. Which is a, again, a far cry from what we saw last week at the American express where, you know, to start the golf season, I think Chris Kirk, 150 to one Grayson Murray, God knows what 400 to one and Nick Dunlop this week, uh,

Don't know if he's going to end up hanging on, but you have a guy potentially at what? 400, 500 to one and pull position to win. Uh, once again. So why is it the case, however, that now that we go to Torrey Pines and it's a lot more chalk, it's a lot more guys at the top six of the last 10 winners are close to the tournament favorite. Well, lower greens and regulation percentage, less putting variants, more separation created from T green. Um,

A way and all of these factors contribute to make this a way easier tournament to protect. Now, at a bird's eye view, Patrick Reed and the fact that Brant Snedeker also won twice is

Those are really the outliers, right? In terms of guys that don't possess that very specific elite skill set of elite driving and elite long iron play. Every single other player that you start to look at here that continues to pop up here.

Luke Lest, Jason Day at his peak. This is a Tony Finau course. This is a John Rahm course. Victor Hovland showed up his first time here and finished second. It's a Will Zalatouris course. It's a very specific type of skill set. And even if you possess a somewhat diminished version of that skill set, like a Luke Lest, if you're able to drive the ball a long way,

and hit your long irons high and stop them on smaller greens, you have the answers to the test at Torrey Pines. Now...

There's opportunities to fade that narrative too. Both times that Snedeker won, he lost strokes off the tee. Hard to imagine that you can lose strokes off the tee and win at Torrey. But it's possible because he gained a million strokes around the green and putting. And he was awesome on the much easier north course. So if you're not going to possess this skill set that we'll talk about more in depth later,

essentially of elite long iron play and elite driving. The formula is you've got to go low on the easier course because that's more of a middle iron to wedge course and

And you've got to chip and putt your butt off. And there's a lot of putting skill on this golf course too, which we'll, we'll talk about later with the Poe stuff, but the, the year, the two years Snedeker one, he shot 69 on the North course and then 64 on the North course. Um,

which that year he gained like five six strokes on the field on the north course and basically won he got amounts to say won the tournament but he did all of his work he gained the vast majority of his strokes on that north course round and then kind of held serve the other three rounds so there is a formula to win here without being a john rom or jason day off the tee but you have to

You have to gain five, six strokes around the green. You have to hope for harder conditions. So more players are relying on their short game. Like the Patrick Reed year, it played harder than it had the last couple of years. And Reed, I think gained nine strokes putting and around the green and then was a slight positive driving and approach. Right. And, and,

You have to kind of have those conditions where the greens and regulation percentage gets even really low, and then somebody with the skill set of Reed to maybe get it done, right? You've got the Alex Norins finishing second a couple years ago. Mackenzie Hughes led that U.S. Open on the weekend last

So it's possible, right? The one thing that I think is really important that I can't emphasize enough, especially for DraftKings, you know, you're going to hear a lot of this this week. I'm making a content prediction here. You know, people are going to say there are a lot of players that simply cannot win at this golf course.

And I don't think that's true. I think that certain players have a much more difficult path to win at this golf course. There are certain players such as, let's say, I know he's not in the field, but a Bryson DeChambeau skill set, Xander Shoffley skill set, Ludwig O'Bear skill set. Those guys have a much easier path based on their driving and long iron play than

But let's say if Zander is 25%, and I know just for comparison's sake, I know he's not in the field, but let's take a player with maybe Cameron Smith or Jordan Spieth's skill set, right? If that guy's at 5%, you know, do Zander and Ludwig have an easier roadmap than the Spieth-Cameron Smith player here because of their length? Of course not.

But is their roadmap five times easier, right? Than Spieth or Cameron Smith? Are they five times more likely to outform Spieth or Cameron Smith? Probably not, right? So you have to be willing to pivot in DraftKings. It's a different game than handicapping, in my opinion. I know there are a lot of different ways to do it. That's the way I do it. And that's the way I have continued to found some modest success as well. So even on this golf course,

It's a much easier handicap, in my opinion, because the pathway to success and to victory is a lot more narrow. But don't let the pendulum swing too far in the other direction as well, because I can give you a bunch of examples of guys. It happens every single year where...

It's like, how is Alex Norton or Mackenzie Hughes contending, Russell Henley contending at this golf course? Well, we can talk about the importance of short game and putting too, but the importance of short game and putting, this is the hardest golf course on the PGA Tour, right? Like there's going to be a lot of guys that possess that long iron and long driving skill set that because of these POA greens, right?

just put themselves out of the tournament and it doesn't matter how good their long irons are. And it doesn't matter how far they're hitting the ball off the tee. If you get going on the wrong way on wrong side of Polo greens, you're in serious trouble on this golf course and you can put yourself out of this tournament really easy. I've seen it happen a million times. So the one caution that I would throw to the wind is yes, everybody is going to force feed you this, this,

same skill set that I'll outline as well. And it's, it's true, right? But I think a very underrated aspect of this course, a way to differentiate yourself at least a little bit is if you're really able to hone in on the difficulty of putting inside five to 15 feet inside five feet, the difficulty of short game shots at this course, it's

It's another way to win at Torrey Pines that we've seen players accomplish before, and it could be a way to help identify some players that might be flying a little bit more under the radar this week. So let's talk about these golf courses. Last year, I'll talk about this briefly. I don't want to spend a ton of time on the North course, but just it's important for showdown purposes that

The South course, the more difficult one, played a stroke harder than the North course last year. But the prior year, it played almost three strokes harder, right? In 2021, it played 2.5 strokes harder. In 2020, it played almost a stroke harder. So you can generally expect the South course to play between 0.9 and 2.9 strokes harder than the South course, right?

That's a lot. It's a pretty big difference here. The reason why the North course plays a lot easier, very simple concept. It's about 500 yards shorter on the scorecard. And here's the big one. It also features way flatter and way easier greens that are back grass and not pull up. So not only is it shorter, part of the reason why Torrey pine South is such a challenge is

is because it's a really tough putting course because of the challenge of POA. And on the north course, you're getting more of a pure bent grass, a far less intimidating surface to hold putts on, particularly short putts. So not only are you getting way more middle irons and wedges, but you're getting way, way easier greens, right? And the north course...

It's actually pretty short by tour standards for really gettable par fives. None of them are play over 560 yards. They're all reachable by pretty much everyone in the field. There are two driveable par four, seven holes on the course that feature over a 25% birdie rate. The greens are a lot easier to hit than the South. And it's a short enough course that you can take driver a lot here and not be super concerned if you don't hit the fairway, because similar to the Bryson method,

you know, and I'll talk about how this golf course relates to places like Oak Hill and winged foot and how those could be worthy reference points. If you're hitting wedges out of the rough, that's fine. The fairways are pretty narrow here anyway. So most players are already missing them. And, you know, if you want to account for a little more North course stuff in your models and your numbers, par fives are really important at the North course. So take a look at par five storing a really important that you take advantage of the par fives in the North course. And, and

and the South course for that matter, but especially the North course. Now, the South course, a little bit of a different ballgame, right? Each of the last two years, it's played as one of the five toughest courses on the PGA Tour. It's way tougher than the North course. It's got tighter fairways, the pull of greens, and this is your token Reese Jones architecture, okay? Now, here's the thing about Torrey Pines and Reese Jones in general is

And I have played a lot of golf on Reese Jones designs. He designed my home course in Los Angeles that I play four times a week. He just did a massive redesign on that course. I've been on a couple members, zoom calls with Reese. I've gotten to ask him a couple questions, pretty clear on his philosophy as, as an architect. And, and I have a very complicated relationship with, with old Reese and how I feel about his architecture. I think he,

the work that he did on my home course is a lot more interesting than what he's done at a course like Torrey Pines when he is designing it for professional golfers. I think he gets caught up in his own ways and a philosophy that I don't think creates interesting golf shots when he is tasked with designing golf courses for professional golfers, right? And I think he's

you know, lets his hair down a little bit more and does some more interesting things when he doesn't feel the pressure of having to make it so hard for professional golfers. But again, that's a different podcast. Torrey Pines is a very strategically homogenous golf course. This is something I talk about often on the podcast, but Torrey Pines is the token example of this. Now, what do I mean when I say strategically homogenous golf?

Well, and I alluded to this earlier, it asks you to do the same thing pretty much over and over again.

which is why it's a course, again, that you're never going to hear talked about in architecture circles. But I think it serves a really nice purpose on the PGA Tour. It's a terrible US Open venue, but it's a good PGA Tour venue because this type of stuff should get tested on the PGA Tour from time to time, especially as a nice juxtaposition from the lack of test that

that we've seen the first three weeks on the PGA Tour, and particularly last week at the American Express, which is a total joke. But to get more specific, most of the par fours on this course are very similar. They're pretty straight away. Sometimes there's a slight dogleg. For the most part, same strategy. Most of the par threes are very similar.

And what Torrey Pines basically asks you to do over and over and over and over again, you could just turn your brain off at this golf course and hit the repeat button. Can you hit your driver long and straight? Can you hit a four iron and get it to stop on a small green? That is what you have to do on 14 out of 18 holes at Torrey Pines, almost 70 over 70% of the approach shots, uh,

come from over 152 yards, 150 yards. 32% come from over 200 yards. I think that's close to the highest percentage on tour. And seven of the par fours are over 450 yards. All the par threes are over 175 yards. So it's basically asking you, do you have that shot in your arsenal? And guess what? Jon Rahm has that shot in his arsenal now.

Luke list has that shot in his arsenal. Will's out Taurus has that shot in his arsenal. You walk at that us open leaderboard at Torrey Pines and you know, a lot of people say, ah, Torrey Pines is such a great us open venue. Look at that leaderboard. And it's like, well, yeah, I mean, because that leaderboard is every single guy that possesses that specific skillset. Rory Bryson, Xander Brooks,

Jason Day has that shot in his arsenal. Mark Leishman has that shot in his arsenal. Tony Fina has that shot in his arsenal. Hideki, Hovland, right? These are the types of players that can carry at 320. It doesn't really matter how accurate you are, but can you carry at 320 and hit a high four iron? And again, that's the reason why you see good leaderboards at Torrey Pines, right? Because it just so happens that

that the best players in the world possess that skill set. And it just so happens that major championships typically test a somewhat similar skill set. Augusta National is absolutely nothing like Torrey Pines architecturally.

But if you look at the guys who played well at Torrey Pines and you look at the guys who played well at Augusta National, it's a lot of the same things because both golf courses are asking you the same question. It's the same drive the ball a long way, hit your long irons high and get them to stop on greens, right? That is the best players in the world. Those are what makes the best players in the world is that skill set, right? And again, whole other podcast, but

We should be testing that skill set more than just six times a year, right? We should try and find ways to test it in different ways. We should try and find ways to test it in far more interesting ways. Torrey Pines is like the most boring possible way to test it. You don't have that creativity aspect of Augusta, right? That

gives room for the guys like Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith to find their avenue there too. Torrey Pines is more of just the robotic token way of testing it. But this is not like the stadium course or Wiley where those guys, you know, part of the reason I hated Scottie Scheffler this week is, I told you, Scottie Scheffler's, what Scottie Scheffler does best is

is completely mitigated at the stadium course where it is completely accentuated at Torrey Pines. If you are an elite long arm player, if you are long off the tee, you have a massive advantage at Torrey Pines. Doesn't mean Patrick Reed can't win. Doesn't mean Brant Snedeker can't win.

But you better go low on the easier course and you better chip and put your ass off, right? And that goes back to the point about the lower variance nature of this course, why this is an easier golf course to predict. And I'll talk about them, the discord all week as it pertains to DFS. It's such an interesting DFS week. But every single one of the winners the last 10 years outside of Scott Stallings,

In the 10 to 80 range, like again, the Luke list one is your biggest long shot. But even that guy was such a model darling for everyone that week. And even Snedeker's wins, they came at times when Snedeker was out of his mind. It would be the, it would be the equivalent if, I don't know who would, I guess I could like Spieth if, if Spieth wins.

came here and played really well. But even like Snedeker was better back then than Spieth is right now. So I don't know. It'd be like if the year that Cam Smith won the players, if Cam Smith came to Torrey Pines and won, right? Like Snedeker was 20-1 in both his appearances. That was a nice little Snedeker one. And both times Jason Day won, under 22-1. Rose was...

14 to one ROM Leishman read there in the 40 to 60 range, but even so, none of them were total shockers.

And I think this makes a ton of sense with everything we've been talking about, right? If you have a very specific skill set of being a long and accurate driver and an elite long iron player, your path here is a lot easier than everyone else. And the players that populate the top of, you know, the data golf rankings are coincidentally, like I said, the players that tend to possess that skill set, right? So, yeah.

it makes sense that we've seen a lot of favorites, a lot of elite players win here. I would say, and I'll talk about this when we get into the early leans, probably a week where I'm honing in. There's one guy I'm definitely going to bet that I would imagine is in like the 40 range. But other than that, probably going to pick one of Xander, Cantlay, Homura, Morikawa, and...

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Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. For

$45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. Call it a day. And I'll talk about those players a little bit more when we get into the model. Let's talk a little bit more about this golf course, a little bit more about Poa Greens. But let's take a quick break first. Okay, we are back. So off the tee, last year, Torrey Pines South,

Ranked 14th out of 45 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Every year ranks tougher than field average and off the tee difficulty. 12th out of 45 courses in missed fairway penalty, but historically it ranks about middle of the pack in terms of missed fairway penalty. So again, this devalues driving accuracy, right? The fairways are so narrow that very few players are hitting them.

It's about a 50-50 proposition to hit the fairway at Torrey Pines. And big misses are not penalized here either, right? Torrey Pines last year ranked 28th out of 45 courses in non-rough penalty. The prior year, it had the fourth lowest non-rough penalty on the PGA Tour, and it ranked bottom 10 on the PGA Tour in penalty strokes per round.

So forget about hitting the fairway here. The fairways are too narrow. If you don't have Corey Connors, Colin Morikawa elite accuracy, just hit the ball as far as you can. It's the same deal as O'Kill and Wingfoot. Big misses are not penalized here the way they are in other courses. And you miss these 25-yard wide narrow fairways here.

And it's just a sea of rough out there. You can miss them by two yards or you can miss them by 30 yards and you're going to have a similar degree of difficulty on your approach shot coming in. So there's not, there's not a lot of trees out here. So your angles will be intact. And I go to this golf tournament every year, like players know where to miss this rough gets trampled down here all the time. Right? So, um,

Length is a big asset for you off the tee. But again, it's one of those courses like Oak Hill where you can miss the fairway by two yards and you can miss the fairway by 30 yards and you're going to have a pretty similar degree of difficulty in your shot coming in. In terms of approach play, we're looking at close to 70% of approach shots coming from greater than 150 yards. So,

Big middle to long iron course. It's going to skew a little bit more middle iron stuff in that one round at the north course. But on the south course, a lot of middle irons, a lot of middle to longer irons, particularly on the south course. And I was actually looking at... This is the type of stuff I do in the article every week on Rumpier Sports. But I wanted to share this with the podcast listeners too because I thought this was interesting. So...

Torrey Pines is the rare blend of golf course where you've got a low driving accuracy percentage, but a very high plurality of shots coming from over 150 yards. So the ability to control middle to long irons out of the rough is, yeah, it's one of the most challenging skills in golf. So I was looking at over the past years, the best players in the field in terms of gaining strokes on approach from 150 yards plus from the rough is

You can find all this stuff for free on DataGolf if you know how to dig around DataGolf and use DataGolf. I don't think they're going to have numbers like this on any of the paid data sites, but it's on DataGolf if you just know how to look around on DataGolf. It takes a little digging. But anyway, Joseph Bramlett is number one in this. Okay?

I like him a lot this week. Stefan Jaeger's number two. Another interesting guy this week. Xander Schauffele, number three. He always has success at Torrey. I like him a lot this week as well. Sung Jae Im, number four. Number five, Jonathan Vegas, who broke my heart this week at the Amex. Missed the cut on the number at 6.6K.

bogeyed 17 to miss the cut on the number i thought that was a genius play might have to go back to him this week carson young number six aaron rye number seven patrick can't lay number eight gary woodland nine luke less 10 right so this is over a large sample size either these are the guys that are the best middle to long iron players out of the rough um

I try and find nuggets like that every single week for the article, but I thought that was interesting. I think there's a, cause I did this every week in the article, do like a deep dive stat of the week and I'll list these 10 guys. Um, and the past couple of weeks it's worked out really well. Like the one I identified at the century Kirk, Chris Kirk was number one in it. Um,

So who knows? Joseph Bramlett, Jaeger, Vegas, Carson Young, Aaron Rye, Gary Woodland, Luke Less. Those are kind of the longer shot guys. Xander Cantlay, Sung Jae, no surprise there. In terms of short game here, now the reason why you want to look at short game here more so than you would at other courses, it's twofold. First of all, chipping out of Kikuyu is no fun.

And it's eighth in around the green difficulty from the rough. So yeah, the statistics bear it out as well. And you look at last year, 13 of the top 15 players on the later board gain strokes around the green. So it's not just that chipping out of Kikuyu is difficult. And just the fact that this course is a fairly low greens and regulation percentage, which is simply going to increase the,

the sheer volume of short game shots that you're going to have to hit on this course. That's just math. Why short game would matter more here, lower greens and regulation percentage want to look at short game more. But the bigger reason too, why I'm so heavy on short game here, and this will dovetail into our putting conversation, but the,

Torrey Pines is the hardest course on the PGA tour in terms of putting inside five feet. So get ready for the tilt because you're going to have guys miss more short putts at this golf course statistically than any other course on tour. So,

Why does that make short game more important? Well, essentially routinely chipping it to three and a half feet at other courses more than acceptable, right? Yet at Torrey Pines, nothing outside of a tap in is a given that make percentage inside five feet goes down that make percentage from three feet goes down that make percentage from four feet goes down from five feet goes down from six feet goes down.

Nothing outside of the tapping is a gimme, right? So over time, over the course of a dozen, two dozen, three dozen chip shots, four dozen short putts over the course of the week,

The difference in players that can consistently chip it to two feet instead of five feet, just for example, are going to create massive separation over time. Because just from a pure numbers perspective, if a player chips it to five feet on every short game shot,

they're going to miss far more of those putts at Torrey Pines than on any other course on the PGA Tour, thus placing a massive emphasis on those who can consistently chip it to tap-in range. So that's another reason why short game here is incredibly, incredibly important and why you've seen a lot of great short game guys play well here. Now, in terms of the putting,

We can talk about POA. I put, I play a lot of West coast guys. I play a lot of golf on, on POA greens. Um, and the statistics bear out the frustration that I experienced every single time I play on POA as well. It's ranked as inside the top five toughest putting courses on the PGA tour. Each of the last five years, last year, number one, difficulty putting inside five feet, uh,

A year after our last year as well. Number one, a golf course and difficulty putting from five to 15 feet. It's a little bit easier in terms of lag putting just because the greens are flat and small, right? So lag putting is comparatively the easiest part. It's the putting inside 15 feet is the most difficult, right? At Torrey pines. That is,

actually statistically compared to other courses, compared to other skills at Torrey Pines, it's not the length. The putting inside 15 feet is statistically the, actually the most difficult part of Torrey Pines. And another thing that I want to talk about with the Pola, listen, it's a really difficult surface to put on. If you aren't familiar with it, there's a big difference between West coast Pola and East coast Pola. And again,

The POA filter that you're going to click on a very popular stat, uh, stat site is not correct. Okay. Because it's going to give you, it's going to give you golf courses like TPC river Highlands, right. And, and rocket mortgage, which is, which is nothing like West coast POA. Okay. So East coast POA is usually blended with bank grass and you're going to see that. I mean, it just visually, you should be able to tell the difference. Like it's, you're going to see that at

Winged Foot and TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club and Oakmont has that too. I think, I don't know if they changed it, but it's very common in the Northeast. And West Coast Poa, like visually, it's just, it's darker green. It's almost a patchy, splotchy surface that you see at Pebble and Riviera and West

Not just statistically, anecdotally, eye test, common sense. It is a lot harder and different of a surface than a POA bent grass blend. Think about bent grass is like the smoothest surface. So when you mix a POA with a bent grass, often the POA is going to be dormant. They're just...

Mixing it for environment and temperature reasons on a lot of those East Coast bent courses. If you get a little poa in there, it helps the way the sustenance of the grass. But that plays like bent grass. This is pure poa.

Okay. And you're going to see a lot of misses inside five and 10 feet. It is a more inconsistent surface than a pure bent grass and even a grainy Bermuda. That's why you see three pup percentage at Torrey Pines be way higher than tour average, despite the fact that these greens are very flat and not large.

and not very undulating. They're not interesting greens, not a lot of contours to them, but they're still going to give players fits because of the short ones, the short POA putts. And some guys just don't like POA. It's a confident surface, and there are going to be times where

You're going to see players miss a putt and look very surprised and blame it on their putter. And if you lose confidence on POA, you can just feel absolutely lost out there. So I really think you want to look at players that have performed well on POA greens, that are comfortable on POA greens. And now you're probably saying,

Well, Luke list is like the worst putter. How does Luke list, um, when at Torrey pines on what you're saying, the toughest are the toughest greens on tour because there are occasions, right? Um, and this is why you see guys like Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott, um,

when the masters typically and Hideki Matsuyama, when the masters who are historically poor putters is because when it becomes so much of a crapshoot, then it's like, Lukeless is like, you know, I was missing these putts no matter what greens you put me on. Now you tell me the good putters are missing the five footers too. Like here comes my advantage. So that's always in play too. But mainly, um,

you just want to look for guys that have figured it out on these screens before. And these are guys like Snedeker and Jason day and Adam Hadwin and Andrew Putnam and Patrick Rogers and math McNeely. Um, a lot of those guys, I'm looking at a longer term power ranking of one to live like Ron, Phil West coast guys, Homa Xander. Um,

Those are big, big Poe guys. Most of those guys, West Coast guys who grew up on the surface, guys who've been good at Pebble and Riviera. For the putting stuff, you want to just look at guys who've putted well at Torrey, Pebble, and Riviera. You don't want to—the Pebble filters are going to lead you down a wrong path, not the right path this week. And I think about the Snedeker quote a lot. I wrote about this in the article too, but I always come back to the Snedeker quote when I talk about Poe.

Snedeker says, and he's won twice here at Torrey. What I love most about POA is you have to be aggressive and you have to hit a putt almost perfect.

You've got to give it a chance to go in. You've got to get it rolling hard on the green. And I think that's what my stroke does best because I hit them aggressive, get the ball rolling really fast. When you do that, the ball holds its line. If you miss a putt a little bit or hit a weak putt, it's going to bump off. And I love it because it eliminates half the guys like Kevin Kisner.

Kevin Kizer just catching, uh, catching strays from Snedeker because they don't like it and they don't want to be on it. So it makes my putting even better because they don't want to be a part of it and they get a bad bounce. They think the greens are awful, which helps me. Right. And this is true. There's some guys that just tape POA. Um, and a lot of those guys aren't playing this week, but I think the, cause I've been saying for a while now is that,

just wait till Ludwig gets on golf courses that accentuates his skillset. Like it's truly remarkable that Ludwig was able to win at a golf course, like the RSM classic, because that sea Island is a golf course that devalues Ludwig's best skillset. Like that golf course devalues elite driving and being able to hit a four iron high and straight. Um,

Just wait till Ludwig gets to a golf course that accentuates that. And I said, I've been waiting for Torrey Pines. The only reason why I don't think Ludwig is a nuke this week is because he just doesn't have much experience on Pella. He hasn't played on the PGA Tour on Pella. Now, I think he's played a couple college things on the West Coast on Pella, but...

Doesn't mean you can't do it, right? But that would be the only thing holding me back from slamming Ludwig here because course history, it's not as big of a deal at Torrey Pines as you think. It's an execution test. That's what I've said. There's nothing. The only reason why course history matters at Torrey Pines is the POA, is the greens. It's not because there's anything...

nuanced or interesting or tricky to figure out or strategy at this golf course. The strategy is driver on every hole at this golf course. Okay. But the POA thing, that would be the only reason to give a pause to playing first timers. Right. So, so I think, I think Ludwig's going to win at API because API is like the Bermuda version of Torrey Pines. Right.

And Ludwig has obviously had now a bunch of good success on Bermuda. So I'm going to call my shot on early on that one. I think Ludwig's still a really interesting play this week. I don't think he's going to make my betting card just because of that poll concern. But the reason why I believe Torrey Pines is one of the easiest courses to handicap on the PGA Tour is just not a lot of randomness to the leaderboards. If you look at the top 10 players...

an average strokes gain per round at Torrey Pines long-term. Tony Finau, Tiger Woods, Ryan Palmer, Mark Leishman, Gary Woodland, Ricky Fowler, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Luke List, Will Zalatouris. And you're going to notice like, okay, there's a massive correlation between those who play well at Torrey Pines and Augusta. I said that earlier.

And the reason for that is very simple. They've got nothing in common architecturally or agronomically, but they both simply ask a player these four very crucial questions. Can you hit the ball a long way off the tee? Yes. Are you an elite long iron player? Yes. Do you have an elite short game? Yep. Are you a really good putter inside 10 feet? Yep. So these golf courses like Augusta and Torrey are,

are nothing like visually, economically, undulation-wise. But at the end of the day, they ask the same things. Augusta just does it in a more interesting way. But again, you look at Victor Hovland shows up at Torrey Pines, finishes runner-up. Zalatoris finds success here immediately. Even a guy like Aaron Rye or Austin Smotherman or Eric Barnes,

big sleeper I like this week or great long iron players, they can find success at Torrey on their first appearance because it's just about possessing that skillset. And if you have that skillset and have been awesome on POA, then I mean, that's a short list of guys. And I think one of those guys is going to win. Um, the West coast thing's real too. They got a, um,

I'm going, uh, as media this week for golf digest, which is going to be fun. I'll be inside the ropes all four days. Um, which is a really fun experience. I did it last year at Torrey and, um, it's one of my favorite things to do. So I'm really, I'm super excited for that, but they sent over, um,

some media stuff about like all the guys with San Diego ties in the field. So maybe I'll tweet some of that stuff out. But I do think just because of POA, the West Coast thing matters here. I really think it does. I do think that guys who grew up putting on POA greens have a huge advantage. I know it's not just anecdotal because you have the evidence. Like Tiger, Rahm, Morikawa,

Homa, Charlie Hoffman, JJ Spahn, Zander, Phil Mickelson, Saheth. Those are all Pac-12 guys. Those are all Pac-12 and whatever the conference at Pepperdine and San Diego State are in. Those are all Pac-12. Hoffman, Spahn, Shoffley, Michael Kim too. Michael Kim, Phil Mickelson. Those are all San Diego guys who've also had a bunch of success at Torrey.

So I put all this together in a model. And the top four guys to me are very clear. And now the guys who are a little farther behind may get a boost from what I've seen this weekend. But number one, Xander Shoffley. Number two, Patrick Cantlay. We've played three golf tournaments this year with Xander and Cantlay. They've been one and two in all three models. And it's worked out. Like...

I think Xander and Shoffley famous last words before Sunday happens, but especially at that ownership, like they're just better plays on that golf course than Scotty Shuffler. Um, so Xander and can't lay number one and two. And now they're on, I mean, they're still on a golf course for different reasons, but still on a golf course where putting really, really matters. Um,

And now their tee to green advantage is bigger than what it was at the other golf courses.

So, again, I think Xander and Cantlay are always going to be the highest rank for me when I take a look at putting. And Torrey is like, because Poa is so important, and Cantlay and Xander have both. Cantlay is another UCLA guy. And I know Cantlay hasn't played as much at Torrey, but he still finished 15th at the 2021 U.S. Open. Cantlay can play Torrey for sure.

Um, but I think any of these golf courses and Tori is like the rare T to green separation test where I have a lot of POA putting and putting inside 15 feet in there. Xander can't layer always going to be the guys. Cause just of the elite players, like Xander and can't layer the best putters inside 15 feet. Now that ROM's gone, the only guy that's right there with them. Number three in my model, Max Homa.

Can Max Homa go back-to-back here? Absolutely. I'll tell you what, one of these, based on the odds, it's going to be Xander, Cantlay, Homa, or Morikawa for me that I'm going to bet for sure. I don't know if I can fit both of them because there's a guy in the 40s that I like as well. But Xander, Cantlay, Homa, Morikawa, I think those guys are in a tier of their own this week. Number five is Keegan Bradley. Keegan Bradley, great fit for this golf course.

finished second here last year can keegan bradley contend two weeks in a row crazier things have happened i think keegan bradley's really motivated after he didn't get on the rider cup team keegan bradley said like okay turns out i just have to win a bunch of golf tournaments if i'm going to be on the rider cup team i think keegan's going to keep playing good golf it's a great golf course for keegan number six to hit the gala pop going to be a popular bat west coast guy

So hit that Tori that makes a lot of success finished fourth year last year, Justin Rose, number seven. He's won at Tori once. Jason days one twice, but Justin Rose is a guy who always seems to raise his game at Tori's had a lot of success at pebble too. He's a great, great poet putter. Number eight, Justin Thomas, who I watched that 61. I think he shot today on Saturday at the MX. It's the best round of golf. Justin Thomas has played in like two years. Um,

Not breaking any news here because a lot of us were high, thought, saw the Justin Thomas bounce back coming. I'm hoping he can finish it off tomorrow. He's my one and done play. Justin Thomas may be a top three iron player in the world again. He might be back there again.

So we'll see. He's very interesting as well. He may have to be in that consideration with Xander Cantlay, Homa Morikawa for that spot for me. Tony Finau, number nine. This is an excellent golf course for Tony Finau. I played a low-owned Tony Finau at the Amex, and he was fine. Hopefully, shoot plays well tomorrow and made the cut. Great golf course for Tony. Number 10, Harris English, my winner. Tell you about him in a second.

Number 11, Eric Barnes. That's my sneaky one. 12, Gary Woodland. Shook the rust off. Good spot. Good spot for Gary to start playing some better golf this week.

Hideki Matsuyama, 13. Nate Lashley. It's a good sleeper play this week. Nate Lashley. He's been awesome on POA. Good long iron player too. Taylor Pendrith. Great golf course for Taylor Pendrith. Good bounce back spot for Taylor Pendrith at, um, after bad miscut at the MX. Not, not what didn't love that golf course for him. 16. Sungjae. Gonna see, uh, interesting how people respond to Sungjae this week. Sungjae, 16.

Sungjae is going to be demonstrably lower owned because I think people think of Sungjae Bermuda. Sungjae has been awesome at Torrey Pines, six and a fourth here last two years. Sungjae could absolutely contend here. I don't like him statistically as much as I like Finau or JT or Rose or Sahith or even Keegan or Morikawa, home of Cantley Shoffley, but I wouldn't cross off Sungjae here. 17 Ludwig, this is an amazing course fit for Ludwig. I told you like the...

The thing that's the only thing preventing me is we haven't seen him on POA really yet on the PGA tour. And he on paper should be a great fit for these golf courses, but we haven't seen him get to play like hard golf courses on the PGA tour yet. So,

In my mind, he should be better on these golf courses, but we just, he played the API last year. That's it. And finished 24. So solid. And he's a better player now, but we'll see. 18, my guy, Michael Kim. He was, he's been very kind to us the last two weeks. I've said this, I'll say it again. We are going to start thinking of Michael Kim as more than just a Twitter guy. He is also a San Diego guy. He went to Cal last,

One of my buddies, I'm going to play golf with him in San Diego. Went to high school with Michael Kim. Knows Torrey Pines like the back of his hand. Has not played Torrey Pines well in the past, but he's a better golfer right now. So I like Michael Kim a ton. Ton of experience on Poet. 19 Jason Day. Token course history guy, right? Which works out sometimes, right? It didn't work out at Wiley with Kuchar. Did work out at the Amex with Hadwin.

Jason day probably going to be overinflated ownership because of, um, the course history. I'm just never, I'm a little bit, always a little bit lower on day than most, but he's been awesome at Torrey pines. So can't rule them out. Number 20, Joseph Bramwell. Love that play. The reason I say Harris English, I think is going to win. Um,

And I wouldn't put Harris English above that group of high-end guys that I'm going to pick one of or maybe two if I can fit them between Morikawa, Homa, Xander Cantlay. But Harris English has been quietly really good on these types of golf courses. He finished third at Torrey Pines in 2021 at the U.S. Open.

Watch that one in person. He was awesome at that U.S. Open. He finished fourth at Winged Foot, which is like the East Coast version of Torrey in so many ways. It's asking the same types of questions. There's a lot of correlation there with that 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot.

particularly the combination of hit the ball long, be a good long iron player, and how you are as a putter really matters because the greens are tough. That's the best. I know different agronomically, but that 2020 U.S. Open should be your biggest reference point outside of prior success at Torrey. English was fourth at that 2020 U.S. Open. You want them on golf courses where it's really hard from tee to green, and you have to be a good putter.

And English is starting to play some better golf. 10th at the Sony Open, 4th at the Century. Gained 3.1 off the tee, .7 on approach at the Sony Open, 4.5 putting. He's gained over four strokes putting, but he's starting to hit the ball really well too. I trust his putter on Pella maybe more than anyone in this field. He is...

In my ranking, I put it all together second long-term inside 15 feet in this field. Harris English, elite putter, has had success at Torrey in the past, has had a lot of success at these types of golf courses in the past, and the ball striking is starting to come around. He's trending in the right direction. Harris English, that's the play. That's my pick.

All right. That'll do it for me coming up right up against the hour mark. But this was a fun episode for me. I love this event. I go to this event every year. I know this event really well. I know this golf course really well. I feel really, I've, I've done really well in terms of what I've seen the past first couple of weeks of the season. Cause I've just been trying harder. Like I didn't even do these podcasts last year. But you know,

reinvigorated with run pure sports. I'm given, I'm given my all to that. And for all the people that have signed up, thank you. I appreciate that. I'm going to continue to work tirelessly around the clock and give you a lot of updates from the grounds next week. Right. Uh, as well. So if you're, if you're from San Diego, if you're a San Diego guy, if you're going to, if you're going to be there, come say hi, let me know. Um, I, uh,

Have mentioned I don't like the golf course. The only reason why I don't like the golf course is because I think it's one of the most beautiful places in the world. And I love the city and the town of San Diego. Some of the best food underratedly I've had in San Diego. One of my best buddies from high school is there. I'm excited to see him. But I can't wait to get back down there. It's such a fun event to attend. And...

Best of luck with your sweats on Sunday at the Amex. Didn't really get to talk about it, but maybe on the Monday recap podcast that I do with Brian, because remember this event starts on Wednesday. So I'm going to jam, have to jam all my stuff into Monday and Tuesday for this week. It's going to be a busy next 48 hours. But until then,

Good luck with your bats the rest of the weekend. Enjoy the football on Sunday and we will see you next time. Cheers. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are just the beginning. Getting into a crash is another way that your world can be turned upside down. Your vehicle may not be the only thing that gets damaged in that crash. You can face a life altering injury or

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