2024 Charles Schwab Preview, A New Colonial, & The PGA's Identity Problem
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I make my models. This is where I go to aggregate and accumulate all my data. It's a very helpful resource. If you are serious about betting and playing DFS golf, it has been for me, at least I credit DFS.

I credit it as a very crucial piece in any of the success that I've been able to have. So if you want full access to the model that I make, if you want to make your own models, if you want to try and research for yourself who are the best golfers on firm golf courses, short golf courses, who are the best golfers on Zoysia, who are the best golfers on driver-heavy golf courses with a low-miss fairway penalty,

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Okay, I'm recording this podcast Saturday evening of the PGA Championship. This is mainly going to be my usual Colonial Preview podcast, and Colonial just got a nice little restoration by one of my favorite architects, so there's some stuff to talk about there, but...

There are, of course, as I'm sure many would imagine a couple lingering Valhalla thoughts I have heading into this final round. I'm going to try and keep it fairly brief though, because I'm going to do a big PGA championship recap pot on Monday, uh, when the dust has settled and there are a lot of things that can happen tomorrow that I think are going to be worthy of their own discussion. Um,

I'm going to save a lot of the broader context of this tournament until when it's over. I will say, heading into the final round, I'm highly leveraged on Bryson and Victor. Either one of those would be the best outcome for me because of the outright wagers that I have on them. Xander is in a lot of my DFS lineups. Shane Lowry is in DFS.

He's Sanders and 35% of them. Shane Lowry's in 33% of them. Shane Lowry was a core play for me. And so Hith, Victor Dean Burmester were all big DFS positions for me as well. So despite my feelings about the golf course, I'm really excited. Really amongst as excited as I have been to watch golf tomorrow in, in quite some time.

I have zero exposure to Colin Morikawa, so that is probably your winner. I may have to throw a couple bucks on Morikawa because I've had such a good week and Morikawa winning, I guess, is the only outcome that isn't super, super positive for me. But listen, you got a victory lap, the positives, you know the rules at this point because there were definitely some negatives in there for me this week as well. John Rahm,

I've got him wrong at back-to-back majors. 20-1, not my best. Another big surprise for me. I stand by betting Jon Rahm at 20-1, but man, what a whiff. That's a whole other conversation to get into at another time in terms of

You know, I'm not calling it crisis mode for Jon Rahm because he didn't play well at two majors in a row. But I was very surprised about that this week. Chuck Keith Mitchell, also not my best. So if I victory lap, I try and include the mistakes too and give you the full picture. Yeah.

And Rahm and Mitchell in particular were amongst the low points for me this week. But I did a podcast on Valhalla breaking down the golf course in December with my good friend Twitterless Steve of the Golf Gambling Podcast. We do it every December where we do an early look at the majors.

And I dive fairly in deep to the course during that December preview podcast. But you can only say so much because you don't even have the scorecard yet. You don't have the weather conditions. Things change in terms of how you feel about certain golfers. And I said in that December podcast,

This is Victor Hovland and Bryson DeChambeau. This golf course is built for those guys. And in fairness, full disclosure, I was also very high on can't lay in that December podcast, which I should mention. But the week of he was the guy I said, no, he doesn't have it right now. On the other hand, in terms of Bryson and Hovland, I, I doubled down, uh,

Even though there was a hit piece on Victor Hovland's form coming out on Monday of PGA championship week. I'm just kidding. I'm a big KVV fan. But I would say that Hovland entered this week with pretty considerable questions. And I just said to myself, if this dude has any pulse, which he showed in the final round of Wells Fargo, then on this golf course, he should be there. And it was incredible.

It was always Havel and Bryson at the end of the day for me at this golf course. And I'm grateful to have a shot tomorrow. That would be an awesome turnout for me. So like I said, it's probably going to be Morikawa. If there's one major for Zander to win, this is most definitely it. So I don't expect an ejection from him tomorrow. You know, it's funny. Zander gave this quote. This is just a quick sidebar.

Xander gave this quote that was circulating on, on Twitter this evening where he basically said, I'm paraphrasing here, but I, I don't really care about the result. The golf tournament is just a result for me. I, I, it's just another round of golf. I'm way more focused on, on the process. And he got dinged a little bit, you know, by people saying like, well, of course Xander is who he is. Um,

If he's giving quotes like this, it's like, what do you guys want him to say? Would you rather have him give the Rory quote after St. Andrews where he's like, I'm standing outside my hotel room at three in the morning, looking at the Claret jug, picturing my name being etched into golf history and how much that would mean to me and my family and the history of golf. Like, would you rather have Xander said that?

He's going to get killed for whatever he says. Either it's Rory and he thinks too much and wants it too much and has too much between the ears. Any modern golf psychologist would coach you to say exactly what Xander said.

Um, so listen, I don't, like I said, I don't expect an objection from Xander tomorrow. I expect both those guys at the top calling, um, as well to give my guys everything they can handle. Uh, Xander, I would, I would not win as much money as if I, um, as if Bryson or Victor won, but Xander, it's still be quite pleased with that. That'd be a very nice, uh,

narrative breaker. I'd really love for that to happen for him and Austin, but I'm sticking with my guns on Victor and Bryson. Set it in December, set it double down the week of no need to deviate now on Saturday night. There's so much to unpack this week with this tournament and this golf course. And I've been pretty vocally outspoken about my criticisms of

Of the golf course that Valhalla is. And, you know, I might end up doing a podcast later in the upcoming weeks about why I think it's a bad golf course, because I think there's some, I mean, most people have agreed. Like, um, I think the Valhalla defenders are, um,

in the strong minority on this one, which, listen, I understand. I was in the minority when people were coming for LACC's throats. But there's still been some confusion about whether this is like an anti-Kentucky thing or if I'm just being a curmudgeon. Listen, I know my audience at this point, and I think my audience is amongst, if not the smartest golf podcast audience out there.

One of them in the top three, like if you're listening to this podcast right now, this solo preview preview, um, first of all, you are a psychopath and you, you deeply care about gaining a serious edge in betting and DFS. Uh,

But whenever I speak at length about architecture, either on this podcast or on Twitter, particularly whenever I devote podcasts solely to architecture, it just doesn't do that well. Some people love it. The diehards love it, but it doesn't do the numbies. It doesn't do close to the numbies as the podcasts do.

I do where I give pecs. So there are a lot of things that I could say and would love to talk about Valhalla as it specifically pertains to the architecture of it and why I feel the way that I do about it. But that's not for this podcast. If you want to hear a really good summary of a lot of the reasons why Valhalla

I feel the way I do about Valhalla. I got to give a shout out to the fried egg newsletter that they put out on Saturday night this evening, which is really good. I retweeted that because it does a really good job of talking about how bad greens are.

create a trickle-down effect in terms of homogeneity and playing style and shots of consequence and how when a golf course has really flat, very unthought-provoking greens, which is one of the things we talked about all week in terms of why we like guys like Shane Lowry –

There isn't going to be any downside risk for playing aggressively, and everyone's going to hit the same shot over and over again, which is what we've seen this week. So in terms of the nitty-gritty architecture stuff, I'm not going to do that in this podcast. I actually think the bigger reason I have been frustrated with Valhalla this week

And again, let's take architecture out of this because you do not need to have a golf course with architecture, with good architecture to provide this. And I can actually give examples of that, of golf courses that I don't think have the best architecture, but provide what I'm looking for in a major championship.

The main frustration to me about this week, again, it goes way beyond the architecture piece of it, is that to me, majors should be a distinctive mental examination. Okay. And what do I mean by a mental examination? For a lot of the best players now with how optimized technology is, they can just turn their brain off and execute.

And that is one of the phrases I used a lot in the lead-in to this week is that this is a turn-your-brain-off golf course. It is trackman golf. There's very little strategy. There's very little consequence. One of the things I tried to look for this week is like, especially on the ESPN Plus coverage where you get a little more dialed into guys,

How many times is a player on a tee box having a legitimate conversation with their caddy about what to do? Spoiler alert, there was none of that this week. There was no conversation about strategy. There was no thinking. There was no consequence. And to be honest with you,

I'm a huge Xander fan, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the leaderboard is the way that it is. With Xander, who has a reputation of not always dealing with adversity the best, and Colin, who has a reputation of winning these hackneyed majors with no wind and no fans and non-traditional major venues. I say some of that tongue-in-cheek because

to prove a larger point, which is that I think that majors need to be distinctive mentally, strategically from regular PGA Tour events in terms of the questions that they ask. I've been watching a lot of playoff basketball, and because I'm a long-suffering Knicks fan, I watch a lot of regular season Knicks basketball too.

If you watch regular season NBA versus playoff basketball or even regular season hockey, regular season hockey versus playoff hockey is a pretty big distinction too. But it's actually a different game. Like the game slows down, the strategy changes, and it's so distinctive that

in terms of how you need to execute and what you need to do and the strategy side of it and the mental side of it compared to what you see in the regular season. And I think my problem with this week is

was that it just felt so much like one of those BMW championship venues, like Olympia Fields when it was 18-under, Caves Valley, Wilmington Country Club, Crooked Stick at 16-under, Aronomic at 20-under. Valhalla would fit in so well with those longer, bank grass, thicker rough, tree-lined Parklands venues.

BMW championships that are perfectly solid FedEx Cup playoff events. And I enjoy those golf courses as FedEx Cup playoff events plenty. But to me, a major championship needs to have this psychological component to it where you can't just turn your brain off and there's got to be

Really tough decisions and shots of consequence. I talked about this after the masters. This has been a theme for me. I remember I spent a fair amount of time with this in my recap part of the masters where the masters this year, you know, with a firm and fast, but fair golf course, you know, where on Friday and Saturday in the wind, you know,

That was the opposite of track man golf. And you actually really got to see what these guys were made of. You had players that were really stepping outside of their comfort zone and just being like, I need to find a way to get the ball into the hole today.

No matter what. And I'm just going to find a way to do that. And people say I'm, I'm too negative in my critiques of some of these golf courses. Well, listen to my masters podcast. I think the 2024 masters, it's not like this can't be done. I think the 2024 masters, which is firm and fast and windy was one of the best golf events from a viewing perspective of the last decade, maybe the best I've ever seen. And you saw players like,

Really good golfers like Hovland and JT and Spieth on that Friday afternoon just be like, I can't fucking cope. This is too much for me to be able to navigate. I can't hit the shot right now. And it was fucking sick. It was fucking sick. That really showed me that week, okay, who was...

Who showed up for work? Who's ready to win a major golf tournament that we only have four of a year? And I understand the Masters is a unicorn in terms of its architecture. And nothing can be the Masters. But what I'm kind of trying to figure out is what actually is the PGA Championship trying to be? Like what...

What was the PGA championship going for this week? You know, if you go back through the last 10 years of the PGA and some of the last couple PGA's have been absolute bangers. Okay. So it's not like the PGA championship is incapable of doing this. Right. And that's why I talked about. So I mentioned to like, it's not even an architecture thing. I, I, I even think that,

The US Open at Torrey Pines, where I don't love Torrey Pines as a golf course. I actually really dislike Torrey Pines as a golf course. But at least with Torrey Pines for that US Open, there was an element of physicality to it. There was a specific question being answered that week that certain guys...

Couldn't handle and we're going to be able to answer. And you saw just like this week, crazy leaderboard, some crazy ejections. Um, and you actually felt like there was a mental component to it outside of, um,

outside of what we see this week, where it just felt like it's turned your brain off golf. And, you know, I love Southern Hills. I love Kiowa Southern Hills and Kiowa check all the boxes I'm looking for, by the way. But I'm still trying to figure out what the PGA championship is trying to be. Like if you go through the last 10 years of the PGA championship and you asked, you know, a serious golf fan, like,

What is this tournament? Like, what is the identity of this tournament? There's really no through line. There is, there's no current identity to this golf tournament. I mean, you have winners ranging from six under par to 20 under par. You have brand new golf courses. You have classical old golf courses. You have firm and wide open and windy golf courses. You have golf courses with narrow fairway and thick rough that play like a classical us open and,

And, you know, normally I would tell you that variety is good and it is good, but I just legitimately don't understand what this championship is trying to be. And the U S open has also struggled with this a lot where, you know, for a while its identity was, we're just going to go to the hardest golf courses possible. We're going to hire Reese Jones and it's going to be thick, rough, narrow fairways. And the winning score is going to be even par. So,

And now it feels like the U.S. Open is kind of like, okay, we're past that. We're past the Reese Jones era.

We tried a bunch of places. We tried a bunch of new places like Chambers Bay and Aaron Hills, and that didn't really work for us. So we're just going to play the hits. We're just going to go anchor this thing around Pinehurst and Oakmont and Pebble Beach and Shinnecock. And we know that we can't always control the weather perfectly, but—

What's the through line here? These are some of the most iconic venues. And if it's Pebble Beach, it's going to be a little bit easier. And if it's Oakmont and Shinnecock, it's going to be a little bit harder. But what do all of these golf courses have in common? These are all golf courses that

that you know, that you have a relationship to, that you have history at, and we're going to play the hits and go to these classical, iconic golf courses. We tried Chambers Bay. We tried Aaron Hills. It didn't work. Our identity is just going to be we're going to go to the best golf courses in the country, and Pebble might be a little bit easier than Oakmont, but what do they have in common? They are classical golf courses that you know and love and have history with. And

I can get behind that. Like, you know, I maybe wish that Chambers Bay and Aaron Hills would get another chance, but at least the U S open seems like it knows what it is. And that's why I, and, and you can know what you are and, and still take swings. Like that's why I do and have variety. Like that's why I defended LACC because I,

It's like, hey, okay, this isn't going to be as hard of a golf course as Oakmont or Shinnecock. It's going to be closer to Pebble Beach. And LACC actually played harder than Pebble Beach, although no one wants to talk about that. But LACC is a classical golf course designed by one of the great architects of all time in a major metropolitan area.

That many believe to be one of the great American masterpieces in the conversation with Oakmont and Shinnecock and Marion is like the foundational pieces of American architecture and history.

Maybe that was a mess because LACC is a bad sports town and they have a grumpy membership. That's fine. I'm fine with them not going back to LACC. But at least I understood what they were going for. That is one of the American architectural masterpieces, the way that Shinnecock and Oakmont and Marion were so important.

I get what they were trying to do, like build that type of classical rotation there. And I don't understand what the plan was this week for Valhalla. You know, I hate to be cynical about it, but it just kind of felt like a money grab, you know, to be honest, like,

The PGA, it's an organization that cares a lot about their bottom line, obviously. What organization doesn't? And they sold a ton of tickets this week, from what I've heard. Maybe they, you know, getting everybody into this major and selling as many tickets as possible felt like their ethos this week felt like their guiding light. It felt like they...

They cared more about, about that than, than maybe some other things that may have gone to the wayside. And, you know, maybe that's all that matters to them at, at the end of the day, I would hope not because they've also gone to better golf courses and in less metropolitan areas, but yeah,

This was such a deeply unserious championship. It was such a deeply unserious championship on so many levels, a deeply, deeply unserious test on a deeply, deeply unserious golf course to roll out there after you've put out some bangers with Southern Hills and Kiowa and Oak Hill. And, you know, I have some criticisms of Oak Hill, but I mean, it's in a completely different league, right?

than Valhalla. So I guess my question is, I just don't understand what this championship is trying to be. They're going to Quail Hollow next year, which is a very standard PGA Tour golf course. And they'll probably sell a lot of tickets there too. But then they're building this giant PGA Frisco, which is...

firm and fast and Gilhance and maybe they're leaning into we're going to be modern. If the US Open is going classical, we're going to be modern and we're going to embrace modern architecture and go to new golf courses.

That's interesting. But then they've also got a Ron and make in there, which is tight and, and short and narrow and, and back to thick rough. And, and I think scoring might be a problem there too. Like it's a great golf course, but it's short Keegan shot one there at 20 under, it's not a big ballpark. And, you know, then you've got some, some narrow classical old school, thick, rough,

Golf courses that we do have history at like, Oh, kill in there. And it just feels like they're throwing a bunch of shit at the wall and, and hoping it sticks. And, and I am all for variety when it's good variety. And, but, but this didn't feel like a, Hey, we're going to, the identity this year is going to be a shootout. Like we're, we're going to market this as a, as an easier shootout. This is,

This felt like very unserious and unprepared for. I mean, you're selling t-shirts in the pro shop that say, fear the post. You know, a laughable signature hole, the first hole, which is playing under par all week. Why are you selling t-shirts that say, fear the post? You're setting this golf course up to be a birdie fest. I don't understand what the...

there's so many incongruencies between how this tournament gets marketed and what actually happens on the golf course. And it was so unserious and so out of place with some of the bangers that they had in the last couple of years. And, you know, I've spoken to a lot of people on the grounds, you know, the unseriousness and mismanagement of this tournament this week extends like far beyond the lack of,

architectural intrigue of this golf course. But I was just confused about this one. And listen, I know we got a great leaderboard. I'm so excited to watch golf tomorrow. And

I just got to throw a challenge flag on the good leaderboard thing as being a justification for good leaderboard equals good golf course because I went back and looked. With the parity, the way that it is in the game, and the depth of great players, I mean –

I looked at all the majors in the last five to seven years. They all have amazing leaderboards. Like it's really hard over four days of golf to put all the best players in the world together and not have some combination of many of the best players there after four days. And listen, every single major venue, whether it's like one of my favorite golf courses in the world, like Shinnecock or Marion or Oakmont, or whether it's a bad golf course, like it's,

It's going to have a great leaderboard. There's going to be some guys that don't make sense. I know Justin Rose is a name. Justin Rose going out there and shooting 13 under par. You look at some of Justin Rose's ball striking numbers this year. The guy couldn't hit the front side of a barn. Okay, off the tee.

The guy's like out there losing four strokes on approach every single week. So, you know, maybe you feel like it's a better leaderboard because that guy's name is Justin Rose instead of, I don't know, Mackenzie Hughes, but their statistical profile is the same. Okay. And yeah,

I just think majors need to rise above like what we see week to week on the PGA tour and live, especially because in a fractured golf world, right? Where most casuals don't care about the week to week on, on the PGA tour live. So the majors are now in this position where they really need to and are able to elevate and, and feel different and, and,

This week felt like the BMW championship. And honestly, it got really bailed out by what happened with Scotty Scheffler. It got really bailed out with what happened with Scotty Scheffler. Like this week did feel different, but not because of the golf shots. The golf shots felt like the BMW championship. But from a narrative perspective, this entire week got completely bailed out by Scotty Scheffler.

And I mean that unintentionally, that this week, very unintentionally, finally made Scottie Scheffler a star.

You know, like it wasn't him going on maybe the best stretch of golf we've seen since tiger. It wasn't him winning the masters again. It wasn't him winning four out of his last five tournaments. Like that is not what made Scotty Scheffler a star to, to regular golf fans and allowed him to permeate into the larger culture. It was him getting arrested this week. Uh,

And, uh, and that is all that, that we will remember from Valhalla. So anyway, let's take a quick break and then talk some colonial. We're driven by the search for better, but when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search match with indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to indeed data and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast.

Ditch the busy work. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. Leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day, Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences, so the more you use Indeed, the

better it gets. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed to hire great talent fast. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at Indeed.com slash BlueWire. Just go to Indeed.com slash BlueWire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash BlueWire.

Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. For

$45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. All right, we are back. Let's talk some colonial. Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas. This golf course was designed by Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus in 1936. And a big Gilhance restoration just took place in the last year. It's a par 70 that now measures 7,160 yards.

Water comes into play on six holes, Bermuda grass fairways, measuring 27 yards wide Bermuda grass, rough three inches, uh, a four back grass greens measuring 5,000 square feet on average and running 12 on the stamp. Uh, and we have a decent field calling more callback, not who I should start with. Scotty shufflers playing this week, which is interesting to me. Um,

He doesn't really have to play this one, but he lives in, you know, it's not a signature event or anything. He lives in Dallas. I don't know how close he is to the Fort Worth area where the golf course actually is. I would imagine it's pretty close. I'd imagine this is a home bed week for him. But he is in the field as of now. Don't know if any court proceedings would prevent him from that, but

Scotty Shuffler's playing Colonial right after the baby and right after the PGA Championship and all that's happened with Scotty Shuffler. He's in the field this week at Colonial. Colin Markawa, if he wins the PGA Championship, will he withdraw from Colonial? I don't know. Who can say? Probably going to be one of those mornings where you'll have to monitor. You might have to act quickly on odds on Monday morning because there are a couple of names in here where I'm like, hmm.

Hovland is probably the next guy that I would mention where Hovland likes to randomly withdraw at some points. And I think he has a really good chance, hopefully, to win the PGA Championship tomorrow as well. So Hovland, Morikawa, Scheffler, Tony Finau. God, I never get that guy right. And he rates out really well for me at Colonial as well. Hovland, Scheffler, Morikawa, Tony Finau.

It's kind of it, to be honest with you. Justin Rose, Siwoo Kim, Keegan Bradley, Denny, Brian Harmon, Max Homa. I forgot about Max Homa. Max Homa also in the field for Colonial. Those are probably the four biggest names. Scheffler, Morikawa, Homa, Hovland. Spieth. Jordan Spieth, of course. How could I forget? Jordan Spieth will also be in the field. Showed some signs of life this week at the PGA.

And I think the main thing to talk about here is the restoration, right? So this is this golf course is getting a pretty new look. It's colonial is, you know, one of the most historic iconic venues on, on the PGA tour. And it got this major facelift this year. Like as soon as the final putt dropped in the 2023 tournament won by Emiliano Griot, they started tearing this place up and, you know,

That's going to play an impact on how we handicap the golf course going forward. Much of our data from prior years, I wouldn't say take with a complete grain of salt, although, you know, we can truly speculate how much the changes will impact the character of the golf course. I'm

Gil Hance, who completed the restoration, is the master of subtlety. His intention was not to create a new colonial, but rather restore the venue to play closer to Perry Maxwell's original intent. And I'm a little dubious about this because Hance was essentially given 11 months to complete a restoration project that would normally take...

two years. With that being said, there may not be a better man for the job in the design industry right now over the last decade. Hans's resume of restorations, just purely restorations. So what a restoration means, I imagine most listeners of this pod know at this point, but restoration is not the same thing as a renovation. Restoration is just

essentially restoring the golf course to the original designer's intent. So Hans's viewpoint on this golf course is not like, Hey, how can I make this golf course better? That's not the determining ethos that Hans is trying for this week. It's how can I make this golf course more like it played in 1936? But yeah,

The golf courses that he's restored in the last couple of years, LACC, which I maintain is a top five golf course in the country, the Olympic Club, Brookline, which hosted the US Open, was a great US Open venue, Oakland Hills, Baltusrol, Fisher's Island, Sleepy Hollow, Winged Foot, Southern Hills, Yale, like...

These are amongst the best golf courses in America. And every single one of his restorations have been received with glowing reviews. So Colonial's in good hands. I've played two Gilhance courses in the last couple of weeks, and I was overwhelmed by the variety and the subtle complexities of the green contouring. It feels a very safe bet.

that Colonial will only improve. And what has been wonderful about Colonial is that it has stood the test of time to modern technology when it comes to scoring, despite the fact that it barely measures over 7,000 yards. And in the restoration, hands actually shortened the golf course. It's now going to play 7,160 yards more.

It's shortened by 40 yards, but that's something you rarely ever see in a restoration. But this speaks to the bones of the golf course and the challenge and intrigue that Colonial presents. You know, the biggest changes are going to be to holes eight and 13, which are both par threes.

Number eight will be brought back to its former self with the green shifted to the left to bring the creek into play. Number 13 will also receive a makeover. Hans called the changes on those holes dramatic.

The fairway on number five will also be level to the left side. Trees will be removed on the right side. So by 2024, you're going to get a better view of the Trinity River, and it's just going to be a better –

a better viewing experience, more playable for, for amateurs and also a strong test for pros. You know, he removed some trees and bunkers, which opened up the golf course and that's going to create more playing options. My premonition, like in terms of the handicap is that colonial is going to emphasize the second shot even further than it already does. And this is already like one of the premier second shot golf courses on the PGA tour. So,

But the corridors off the T are going to be a little wider, but you're going to get more challenging green complexes. So I think if there are a couple of skills that we haven't seen heavily emphasized at Colonial in the past,

I would maybe give less of a bump to anything off the tee related and more of a bump to recent approach play, just like the Players' Championship where I said to myself at the beginning of the players, the defining characteristic of this golf course that you need to focus on is if you just want to throw everything out

Just take the guys that are hitting their irons the best. I think that's such a safe bet, and it was this year as well. Just take the guys that are hitting their irons the best. That's going to be a really good pool of players for you. And if you're trying to make decisions at the bottom of the board in terms of 6K guys, just go off recent approach for them. And I think Colonial has a lot of that where, again, even this week,

Like, especially on a little bit of a newer golf course where course history is still going to be really important. It's a pretty sticky course history golf course, but I would maybe give even more of a slight bump, which feels like the safest bet on this type of golf course, particularly with a hands restoration, which is going to probably open it up a little bit off the tee with the playing quarters. And again, with the greens, like,

It's not a golf course with big greens at all. So I'm not going to sit here and say wag putting is important because the greens are so small, but these greens are definitely going to be more interesting and challenging and have some more subtle breaks and contours to them. Perry Maxwell, you know, is one of the best architects of green complexes to ever do it. And what happens to these golf courses over the years is you,

Because of weather and because of guys hitting bunker shots and sand building up on the edges of greens, what happens is the sand builds up on the edges of greens and they lose a little bit of their natural – this is really in the weeds, but they lose a little bit of their natural shape and they become a little bit more dome, like an inverted dome. And so what Hans did was he restored –

the greens back to a lot of the original contouring of them. And I would imagine that makes putting kind of the opposite of what, I mean, Colonial is not a super tough putting course. These, these greens aren't like anything wild or crazy. There's not like Augusta greens or anything like that. Although Perry Maxwell did play a hand in Augusta. If you want to make that connection, Southern Hills, by the way, is the other Perry Maxwell one. If you want to look at that at all.

Also, if you want to look at what is a Perry Maxwell, Gil Hans restoration, Southern Hills. And there's actually a big correlation of just off the top of my head, Chris Kirk finished fifth at Southern Hills. He's a winner at Colonial. I could deep dive that a little bit further in terms of that Southern Hills-Colonial connection that we may see even a little bit further this week now that Gil Hans has restored Colonial.

But like I said, I think the greens are going to get a little more interesting, probably going to be a little bit of a tougher putting course and a little bit more emphasis on approach play. But as previously mentioned,

Hans is the master of subtlety. And like I said, his intent was not necessarily to make the golf course any easier or harder. I don't know if this is going to make the golf course play way easier, way harder. I don't think it's going to make it play any easier or any harder. It just depends on the weather. Like,

the thing I should mention with colonial too, what makes it so great. And I made the joke of like, just get me to colonial because this is a really firm golf course that you hit some really interesting shots on and test golfers in a really distinctive and, and unique way. Like Emiliano Griot won last year at eight under par Burns was nine under par. Kokrak was 14 under par. Berger was 15 under,

Kevin Na was 13 Kisner 10 Spieth 9 you've got 117 and 20 in there from Justin Rose but Adam Scott 9 Boo Weakley 14 under and I mean I

It's really the perfect just to see Colonial and Valhalla. And I don't know how firm this golf course is going to play. I haven't really dove deep into the weather yet. For all I know, you know, Texas got a ton of rain and this is going to be another 20 under tournament. I'll talk about that way more in, you know, the Monday show with Wiley and in my content this week over at Rumpier Sports. But yeah,

If Colonial plays anything like it has played in the last couple of years and this bit of a drier time in Texas and the golf course is going to play really firm and fast. And it's going to be a golf course that is 500 yards shorter than Valhalla. And you may get half the winning score, right? Like the last two years, uh,

um, Colonial has been one at eight and nine under Valhalla's this week's going to be one at at least 16 under, and that golf course is 500 yards longer. So I don't know how anyone can look at these two golf courses in a vacuum and be like, okay, firm and fast is the answer going forward. If we want to test golfers, we just need firm and fast. Um,

And in terms of what we already know about Colonial, it welcomes numerous styles of play, right? Like Kevin Na discussed, the golf course, you play your own game. Another former champion, Chris Kirk, talked about this golf course appeals to more of a field player. If you can flight your shots and work the ball with the wind here and there, you're going to have a big advantage out here because there's a ton of crosswinds. It's windy, it's

uh, that you'll play in this course. So yeah, I would think that a field player and being able to judge those distances and judge the wind is just crucial here. And you've actually had like a nice, a nice speed type, you know, um, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Sheffler's obviously played well. Um,

So kind of a lot of those, like, doesn't really matter as much what you do off the tee. This is such a club down golf course where, you know, hitting the fairway is, is very important at colonial. Cause it does have a fairly high missed rough penalty, but a lot of the time at colonial, like,

so many of the players are clubbing down off the tee and doing whatever they can to find the fairway. It's all about positioning with your second shot. And what is so great about Colonial is that

All of the approach shots on this golf course are essentially coming from between 100 and 175 yards. It's got one of the lowest percentages on tour of long iron shots, and yet the greens and regulation percentage is still 57.5, and that's because the greens are so small and they're so firm. So at the end of the day, the major thing that I'm focused on this week before we get into – because I want to talk a little bit about the players in my model –

Recent approach form, bank grass putting, still course history. It's a golf, people like, players like this golf course, but it's really, I'm pretty, I know that the greens and regulation percentage is low enough this week where short game matters just based on pure volume. I actually don't think the surrounding green complexes are very challenging whatsoever. I think that, you know, the best iron player generally wins at Colonial.

And you run through this list of players and it's like, okay, what is Griot's defining skill? Approach play. Such a Berger course, such a Morikawa course, such a Justin Rose course, such a Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott. When they're on their games, approach play, right? Approach play. And so to me, it's about recent approach form, right?

I think driving accuracy matters a little bit. Like I I'm doing a, I'm looking, this is why the rabbit hole is so great. It's like, you do not want to look at off the tee performance on like driver heavy, big ballparks this week. That is not important. You want to look at how players perform on driving accuracy, you know, less than driver courses, strokes gain off the tee on short courses with difficult to hit fairways. You know, what are the types of golf courses that are short? But,

but kind of ask some questions off the tee, have a higher fairway, miss fairway penalty, all of these things you can do at the rabbit hole. So I threw all that stuff, you know, I'm looking at short, firm golf courses and windy conditions, short courses with smaller greens, right? Like you can't just throw this into the bucket with,

all short courses. This is a lot more challenging, a lot more distinctive than some of the other like very easy, short birdie fat fest courses on tour. This is a real test. Um,

And I expect it to be that one this year. And like, I will, I totally liable to change my entire opinion on how this plays. If it becomes like a, a dart throwing contest, if you know that area of Texas gets a lot of rain, but at least in the past three to four years, uh,

This has really been a tough, firm, strategic, windy golf course where it's really about controlling spin with your wedges, which is kind of cool because you don't – certainly didn't see any of that this week. It's not something that you see all the time on the PGA Tour. You don't see guys trying to have to hit wedges into small, firm greens, which is really cool. It's really unique and different. So –

Running through the top 20 of my model real quick, and then I don't really have strong early leans because there's too much that can happen. I want to run through the final PGA numbers. I do feel really good about Hovland going forward. I really think it's fixed. I think he has a very good chance to win the U.S. Open, Victor Hovland. And I think he's just going to go now. I think we're going to get Hovland back.

And point being, there's a perfect Colin Moore-Kala golf course. A perfect, perfect Colin Moore-Kala golf course. So with some of these, and Tony Finau is a statistical darling for me as well. So some of these guys that are playing their Sundays at Valhalla, I just want to see how the leaderboard shakes out. But here's the top 20 in my model. Okay, number one.

Scotty Scheffler, big shocker there. Yeah. Still a great golf course for Scotty Scheffler anytime he's in Texas. Firm, fast, windy, small greens, recent approach play. Scotty, number one. Number two, Tony Finau, who...

has had a lot of success in Texas. He was a huge key piece for us at the Houston open. I've also gotten Tony Fina wrong. It's in the times as well, including at, uh, the Wells Fargo a couple of weeks ago, abandoned him after the Wells Fargo and, uh, Valhalla ended up being the spot to utilize him. Cannot get too upset about not playing, uh, Fina at Valhalla when the guys around him that I chose, uh, in the eight low eights were, uh, Sahith and Shane Lowry. But, uh,

I don't know. Tony Finau is starting to get into that Hideki category for me where when it makes all the sense in the world, don't play him. It's probably your warning sign. And when it seems like he's cooked and doesn't make a lot of sense, that's when you play him again. Number three, a player that I really like this week coming off a miscut.

at the PGA, which I'm not going to read too deeply into because I didn't love that golf course for him, is Christian Bezadenhout. I think I'm going to bet Bezadenhout to win. Number four, Chris Kirk. Talked about he's a former Colonial winner. He's got the Southern Hills connection as well.

He's played great this season. Again, miscut at the PGA Championship. Not going to put too much stock into that. This is a way better golf course for him. Number five is Austin Eckro. My guy who was huge for me this week at the PGA, 5.7K. Hopefully he has a good Sunday. He's in a big lineup for me. So a lot on the line for Eckro for me tomorrow. And

I don't know if he's the type of guy that's going to win twice in a PGA Tour season, but the guy's really good. The guy should be good on these types of golf courses. He's actually really accurate off the tee, Eckrod is. That's actually his biggest strength is he's such an accurate driver of the ball. And so he should start playing well at these types of golf courses. Oklahoma guy, you know, I've

The golf course, Karsten Creek, that he, him and Hovland played at at Oklahoma State. And I haven't done the requisite research on past Eckrode and Hovland to think about if there's more Oklahoma State guys that also happen to play well at Colonial. But that Karsten Creek, I played it a couple of years ago with one of my buddies in Oklahoma State.

They're very similar. Like it's, it's backgrass greens. It's really firm. It's a little bit more of a driver heavy golf course for sure. But in terms of the agronomy, the firmness, the Miss Fairway penalty, I like this spot for Eckrod a lot. Number six, Colin Morikawa.

Seems like he's starting to play some really, really good golf again, at least in the major championships. Um, but we, you know, we're on him at the heritage and this is the type of golf course that I would expect Colin Morikawa to win at, you know, a couple of times throughout the course of his career. Number seven, Denny McCarthy. It's an interesting flop black candidate. I declared that boldly the worst play on the slate. And, um,

You know, there's been times where I've declared the worst play on the slate has ended up doing well, but I did not get that one from the jump. 10% Denny McCarthy at that golf course. I think this is a way better spot for Denny. I like this spot for Denny coming off the miscut. I mean, it was ugly at the PGA. Like it wasn't even close, but I think this is going to be a much softer landing for him. Number eight, Lucas Glover.

keep playing Lucas Glover. He keeps making cuts. Number nine, Brian Harmon. I actually really like this. I like this spot this week for Brian Harmon. I think that this is a

a good week to kind of buy back on Brian Harmon. Hey, maybe it's time for him to win another one of these things. So I like Harmon a lot this week at Colonial. He's played great at Colonial. Number 10, Brendan Todd. Not a huge shocker there. Brendan Todd should play pretty well at this type of golf course. And he even made the cut at the PGA, which he had no business doing. 11, Hovland.

It's just great to have him back playing again, playing great again. I mean, all things, if you look at through three rounds, I have no, who knows, maybe he shoots 75 on Sunday, but the short games look pretty good. And I talked about a while ago, like the reason why I like Hovland on Sunday,

golf course like Valhalla is because it's so easy around the greens. There's a lot of thick rough around the greens. Now, Colonial, I think it's going to be a little bit harder around the greens than Valhalla just because the greens are firmer. So if you short side yourself, you're actually going to pay a penalty. But in terms of like the actual short game shots, I

It's not an overly undulating golf course, and there is a decent amount of thicker rough around these screens in some spots. So I know Hans has made some more runoffs, but Hovland has three top 25 finishes in three appearances at Colonial. So I would expect him to keep playing well at this golf course. I'm heavily, heavily interested in him as well. Number 12, Keegan Bradley.

Core play for me at the PGA Championship. Hopefully he has a solid Sunday and no reason to not like Keegan again. I think this is a golf course he can play great at. 13, Justin Rose. My model is not using any Valhalla data. So maybe I'm a week late on Rosie here. But let me see what that is. Oh, he's one here.

He's got a great backgrass putter. He's got a ton of history on these types of golf courses, and he raises his baseline. This mitigates a lot of what he struggles with off the tee, and he's a much better wedge player. So, yeah, interesting. The golf course this week should be way better for Rose than the one he's playing well on at Valhalla. But maybe he keeps it going. 14, Siwoo Kim.

Kind of just a heat check performance at the PGA. Like I'm not going to kill him too much for missing the cut. He basically finished like top 25 every single start this year. He's terrible in US Opens and PGAs. I don't like that one one bit. So I think Siwoo bounces back this week, although he's been weirdly bad at Colonial. 15, Aaron Rye. Another made cut for us at the PGA. Loved Aaron Rye last week. I

No reason to not keep riding this ride this week. 16 Max Homa.

I just haven't gotten a feel for Homa all year, to be honest. I was looking back and I just haven't played Homa all year. I don't know what it is. He never rates out as well as some of the other guys that he's priced around. I like the guy. I think he's actually statistically one of the better in contention players over the last five years. I got a lot of respect for his game. My numbers just never...

Never seemed to like him as much as they like some of the other guys. He's still not... Even his best... The best version of Max Homa from a ball striking perspective is not as good as the best version of Victor Hovland or Colin Markawar or even Tony Finau from a ball striking perspective. So maybe that's it. But you think about the Fortinet, which is...

kind of firmer the last couple of years. Narrow, short, tree-lined, bent grass, thicker rough. He's won there twice. He's played well at Colonial last year, finished ninth, not a bad spot. 17, Andrew Putnam. 18, Billy Horschel. 19, Ryan Moore. 20, Keith Mitchell. That last week was way better of a golf course for Keith Mitchell at Valhalla, but this is still...

his approach play just in general, he's just hitting his irons really well. And this golf course might mitigate a little bit of his advantage off the tee, but I just trust his ball striking in general right now. So maybe a good bounce back spot for Keith, although I don't traditionally think that this would be the type of golf course that he would win at. So the major early leans that I have thus far is really Bizayden out. And then...

I don't want to think about it this way because this is the backwards way of thinking about it. But almost out of the Hovland-Morikawa category, the guy that we see less of on Sunday, the guy that I don't want anyone coming off like a giant win or a heartbreaking defeat, the guy that maybe plays fine and

I don't think either of these guys are going to do this. I don't think either of these guys are going to eject tomorrow. And I don't know if I have the stomach for Finau. But the guys that make the most sense, maybe I could see Spieth starting to find some life as well. He was 22 in the model for what it's worth, so not totally far off. But I think I'm swimming in that Hovland or Morikawa line.

pool this week or i guess or finauer speed and if i go if i fade all those guys at the top it's going to be a lot of bazayden how kerr glover harman um i like siwu bounce back aaron rye guys like billy horschel and andrew putnam so that will do for me we've got an hour um

I will do a lot more on the PGA Championship tomorrow, speaking to somebody that was there all week, reporting on the tournament all week. That should be fun.

And thanks for all the support this week. It was another great major. Thanks for all the folks that participated in the giveaways. The guy that I gave away the 5-5-5 to, Ted Janky, he's got a pretty good shot tomorrow. Like, he's got a 6-6 that's currently cashing, which would be awesome to see him hit big on, you know, that giveaway. And let's go Bryson. Let's go Victor, right? I mean, I...

for all that I've said about what this golf course lacks and watchability and architectural intrigue and strategic value and shots of consequence, I still think that like this, the amount of conflicting narratives going on right now at this PGA, I mean, Scotty's kind of out of it now, but like

I haven't even done the what happens if Morikawa gets to three before the age of 28 yet. That's a whole other conversation. But Bryson winning is massive for golf. Whatever you think about Bryson or Liv, like...

Guys, my mom works at Snapchat. I was talking to her about this the other day. She works on the corporate team at Snapchat. They know who Bryson is. He's kind of a big deal. He's a more impactful winner for the future of the sport than a lot of these guys. He's more engaging. He's more enigmatic. He's got more star potential. And that was a lot of my frustration about the coverage this week is like,

Listen, the Tiger thing's done, okay? In terms of him being a competitive golfer in major championships, I don't think that's happening anymore. You can obviously clip that if I'm wrong, but I'm very comfortable saying that Tiger's pretty much done as a competitive golfer in major championships. And so...

You have this opportunity to usher in a new era. And I don't know why you're not like leaning into, no one's going to be able to replace Tiger, but I don't know why you're not leaning into trying to, I mean, you know, the younger generation is already cognizant of Bryson and, and seems pretty pumped about him as YouTube stuff, his TikTok stuff, his Snapchat stuff, but,

does amazing numbers. So I don't know why you wouldn't try and make him more of a massive story. And I know he, they started showing him a little bit more, but like I would have had a camera on this guy, like pretty much every shot went in contention. And so I'm just so excited to watch tomorrow, not just because I've got some DFS and outright sweats, but

You know, Xander, sorry, this is my side to end the podcast. I'm getting the hiccups. Xander has a chance to break some major narratives. And if Xander does not win this tomorrow or he loses in heartbreaking fashion, it is going to be brutal for the guy. I really feel for him because...

He has just kicked Cantlay's ass all season. And somehow it's the thing I go back to with the college football playoff. It's better to beat a worse school in a bowl game than lose 60-0 to Alabama. God, if Zander doesn't win this, I feel for the guy. But the converging narratives of us having to have a conversation about Morikawa's greatness if he gets to 3...

Hovland's coming off a hit piece, a broken golfer. Where has he been?

Bryson, you know, there's just – Sahith is incredible. Like Sahith is a great young star for the PGA Tour to lead into. I haven't even mentioned Sahith, but he would be an incredible PGA champion and an incredible deserving PGA champion. So enjoy the golf tomorrow. I think probably many – I'm releasing this late on Saturday night. Many of the people listening to this are listening to this after the golf game.

But I hope you enjoy the golf on Sunday, and we will see you back on this podcast feed on Tuesday morning. Cheers.

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