2024 British Open DraftKings Picks with Coby DuBose
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I'm answering all of my questions and providing all of the updates based on weather, what we're seeing from the grounds in that discord. All right, coming up on this podcast, our final major DK breakdown of the year. It is myself. It is Kobe DuBose. We are talking all things Royal Troon, the entire DraftKings slate and everything in between. So without further ado, let's bring on Kobe.

All right. Kobe DuBose is here. It's the final major of the year. It's the Open Championship. I think it's your favorite major. Is this your favorite major? It's my favorite sporting event overall. Yeah. You've got a nice little tradition, right? You head off to Vegas on Wednesday night, stay up all night, get it going on the West Coast over there.

Yeah, there's two options for the open. You can either go far east and just match the time in Scotland or you can just go further west and then it starts when you're still awake. So I like to spend it in Vegas. I go out and get a nice place at the Wynn and set up. It lasts, you know, I have to bring like extension cords and shit because they're not, you know, prepared to show me Peacock or wherever this thing's going to start. But get it all set up, eat some nice steak, make some bets, stay up all night, play some craps. You know, it's the same same story.

How's LA? You're just in Los Angeles a week or two ago, right? You like my hotel recommendation? Awesome. Yeah. We recommended shutters on the beach. No free ads, but pretty good. Yeah. The view was great. Weather was unbelievable. LA, you probably know this. I guess they love fireworks and it was the 4th of July.

So we got a lot of them, which wasn't great for the baby, but that's okay. We enjoyed it. It's cool. LA loves anything that brings attention to them. Fair enough. Don't we all? But yeah, I mean, I can't believe it's gone this quickly, man. I was thinking about this. I was talking to a buddy about this this morning and he,

I know that it's been a couple of years since the PGA has moved from August, but just based on the way that the calendar was spread out this year, this is actually the least amount of number of days between all of the majors this year. And I'm starting to really not like it. Not that I'm not ready or not prepared for another major championship, but I just...

I find myself in the position where we are at a place in the majors right now where if you are playing good golf leading into college,

ball hollow leading into pioneers. Chances are that you're still playing good golf outside of a few outliers. And I think this major championship schedule that we currently have really sets up for a player that's able to peak in a little two to three months stretch to really reel some off and play some really good golf at a bunch of majors back to back.

And I kind of disliked that. I kind of liked when each major had a bit more competitive starvation, a bit more space, a bit more storylines where some of the guys that it felt like were off the planet at the PGA are, are different guys that are kind of peaking at the right time for the open. And I just, this year more than ever, it, it felt cramped to me. Yeah, I could see that. You know, I remember, um,

I think it was last time they were at Troon was when they had the back-to-back PGA and Open Championship like two weeks apart. And that was the ultimate, you know, sort of claustrophobia. And this is not quite that bad, but it has kind of flown up on us. I think part of the issue is that, you know, the 4th of July just like sits right there between these two majors and it feels like, you know, everything gets kind of condensed around that. So,

So we're here. I mean, I'm always happy for the open to come because it's awesome, but I'm sorry to, you know, to see it go. And then we have to wait another nine months to watch our hours of coverage of the masters next April. So, yeah. So I, I genuinely have not,

heard one opinion from you out of true. I mean, we haven't even talked about Rory at Pinehurst yet, which, which we'll get to. I'm, I'm, I'm saving that for once we get into the, once we, once we get into the players, but yeah,

Give me your impressions on Troon. Give me some overreaching stuff. How do you feel about the golf course? Yeah, I haven't been to Troon. Obviously, I've been to Scotland, but didn't make it over to the west coast of Scotland. But, you know, pretty good feel for me for these, you know, open courses. I'm kind of an open junkie. You know, I've watched and studied a lot of the Scottish links just in trying to plan our own trips. And I really have come to understand them. I think Troon...

has always felt kind of like this little sort of rugged nugget sitting out there on the west coast of Scotland. And I think its reputation until, you know, last time we were there was kind of as the place where you're going to get harsh weather and it was, it's going to play harder than it should because the weather is,

On the west coast of Scotland is unpredictable. And I think that's still true. That's like the side of Scotland. You know, the east coast of Scotland is the Gulf Coast, right, where they advertise come over here and you're going to get sunny weather and play until 11 o'clock at North Berwick and all that. The west coast of Scotland is more unpredictable.

come over here and just get your ass beat with weather. So I still think it's erratic. It's the kind of place we're looking at weather predictions, you know, a week out is maybe not as good as looking at it, you know, the morning of. So that's something to think about. I think Troon is going to be interesting because I think it's going to end up being pretty windy, but it's also going to be not soft because, you know, they never let those courses get too soft, but I think the greens are going to be soft and the fairways are going to play a little bit faster than the greens. I think it's going to be,

narrowish fairways, particularly if you've got faster fairways and all these big giant, well, they're not big bunkers, but they play big. So it's going to be a strange test with, I think, thicker rough this year. I saw Jeff Shackelford

um, in his email or his little newsletter last night said thick rough that maybe doesn't play as thick as it looks. I mean, how true that is. He watched, you know, 20 golfers play practice round and we're not at the tournament day yet, but his, his judgment was this looks a lot gnarlier than it's going to play. Uh, but I still think pretty penal off the tee. The only thing we did talk about was like, this is a total driving place. I think, yeah,

If you really want to take advantage of some of these holes, being long helps, but you definitely are going to have to hit some really just proper tee shots on tough holes. And you're going to have to be able to visualize those tee shots where Troon makes it kind of hard because they don't really give you the roadmap. It doesn't show you where to hit the ball. You're just going to have to kind of plot your way around there and be smart about it. So an interesting place for sure.

Yeah, I spoke, I'd spoken to a couple folks that are there today, both, you know, people that like to bet on golf and play daily fantasy like us, some people that are just kind of there on the media side about some overarching ideas about the championship. And then one or two guys I know is just there as a fan. Right. And, you know, I, I'm pretty pleased to report that, uh,

what I thought true and was going to be in, in my pre-course breakdowns I'm hearing is, is what is playing out, which, you know, if you remember is, is not, was not really the case at Pinehurst. Like I, I went through an identity crisis between Monday and Wednesday at Pinehurst. And a lot of the fears that I ended up having about Scotty Scheffler, not being able to separate on approach. And this really,

really just being a golf course that you could not be aggressive at, had a super low greens and regulation percentage. You couldn't hit close approach shots, and it just turns into a short game and lag putting contest where power off the tee is a lot more important than accuracy. Troon kind of is to me

what I thought it was. And, and heading into the week, I said, I think, I think that this is a real, like very, very important driving course, both, both from a distance and an accuracy standpoint, more so accuracy, in my opinion, um, from what I've heard players, I'm, I always reserved the right to, you know, at this point in modern pro golf, I just, um,

If I'm in the middle about something, I always expect players to play more aggressively. I've learned that they have in the past, but from what I'm hearing from practice rounds, you're seeing a lot of less than driver off the tee, particularly on the front nine. I think you got to hit a bunch more drivers on the back nine. And there's a real, real miss fairway penalty, right? And I think that falls in line outside of St. Andrews, Kobe, with...

What the modern open championship is. And that is a golf tournament that, uh,

allows a lot more players to compete. You know, sometimes we step up to these U S open courses and modern PGA championship courses where it's like, okay, if you're not an elite long iron player and a very long driver of the ball, you don't really have a chance to compete here. And I think if you are like an incredibly accurate driver of the ball with average to plus distance, you're

I think there are a tremendous amount of players that are live in this tournament. Yeah. I don't necessarily disagree with you. I think it is this golf course to me is going to require players that are able to sort of put the pedal down and then take the pedal off like as needed. It's a very, I think it's going to be a hard golf course for some people because mentally you got to go get it on some holes and then you've got to white knuckle it on other holes. And I don't,

That seems easy, but that's kind of hard for golfers. It's one thing if golfers go into a round saying, all right, I'm going to play a conservative strategy in this round and so forth. But when you kind of have to make sure that you go out and get your birdies on a certain number of holes and be uber aggressive, and then all of a sudden kind of pull back a little bit on some other holes. And I think Troon throws a number of kind of changeups and curveballs at you. But I do think it's a place that

It has less long irons than I think we see in some open venues, as you say, which can change things a little bit. I think it's a golf course, though, with some of the changes, and you spoke to this, some of the changes that they've made.

has created kind of some high leverage shots. I think that's what I'm going to enjoy about this tournament. A little bit like the Masters, there are shots that you know that if a guy pulls off, he's gained a shot and a half on the field. And if he doesn't pull off, he's lost that. And I think Troon's going to have that, like the drive on 11. That's a place where people are going to make eight and then other people are going to make three and four based upon a single tee shot. And then on these par fives, which have been lengthened,

You know, there are going to be some guys from 288, 290 who can do pull a Bob McIntyre and hit it to six feet, right, or give themselves a chance at eagle. And there's going to be other guys who can't pull that shot off, end up in the rough, and now they're making six. So I think there's some high leverage spots where distance is going to be very important. You know, with the lengthening, it's going to make at least one of the par fives on the front longer.

be a place that maybe only the longest guys can get to, which I think, you know, is different. St. Andrews, everybody can get to every par five, right? So that's a kind of a different, a little bit of twist that's going to add to the importance of length. But I do think accuracy off the tee. And the thing that we have to think about with any open is sort of the strokes gained, you

kind of strokes gained putting up with bullshit, I guess, is an easy... Like, the open just throws weird stuff at you, weird lies, weird weather, you know, scrambling, not in a traditional sense, but it's just...

Sort of strokes gain moxie. Brian Harmon, sure, he hits lots of fairways, but he also can get it up and down from weird places. Mark Callagy did the same thing at Royal St. George's where he had a couple up and downs on that Sunday just from sort of scruffy, strange places. And it's hard to quantify that because we don't have much of a sample size of how these guys really play links courses that throw weird conditions at you. So it's a little bit of guesswork that goes into the open. And I think that's why it sometimes can feel a little bit random.

Yeah, I, I agree with a lot of what you're saying. I think that the big numbers on this golf course are all basically a result of wayward driving. Like, I think if you are playing from the, and this is going to lead into my next question about what you're seeing with the weather, the wind, and what you think you're, what you think the winning score is, because I think

People just want to know what the winning score is. And I think that shapes a lot of the types of players that we're looking at, whether we think it's going to be one at five under par or 15 under par. I talked about this in my Sunday podcast. I actually think this is a rare example of a golf course that made changes.

that are actually going to have like a, a very positive impact on scoring. And when I say positive, I mean, the changes are actually going to do something right. Like this isn't going to be like, I don't necessarily, I don't think that the changes that they made between 2016 and,

And this year are going to make this Carnoustie in the wind and, or, or Muirfield in the wind. But this golf course on paper is certainly harder than the golf course that it was in 2016. Now have players gotten better? Has technology gotten better? Has driver faces gotten even better, bigger? Absolutely. But I think like what I'm seeing on this golf course is that, uh,

Man, if you're not hitting fairways at a consistent rate, I still think that you can make some really large numbers on this golf course. I think the postage stamp is good. Like, I think it's a really great short par three that you could, it's a really high leverage hole where the difference between two and five is

is slim on that particular short par four, which is very rare when you give players a hole where they have a wedge in their hand, which creates such a low dispersion pattern.

But what are you seeing wind wise in terms of like the, the, how you think this golf course is going to play and, and kind of a winning score estimate for you before we dive into the players? Yeah. So, you know, obviously when we get over to the UK, we start looking at different weather sources. Like the Met is their big sort of weather service, national weather service. That's usually the most accurate, um,

And they give kind of in the perfect British way, they give you like a written summary and they'll tell you what their confidence levels are in their forecast. Right. And they they have low confidence in general for a few of these days, which is kind of something that I talked about. It's hard to have high confidence in anything. It's almost like when we go to Bandon and they laugh at you for looking at the weather a week out. Hard to predict. But, you know, it looks like we're going to see.

I don't know, 25 mile an hour gusts potentially on Thursday. You know, we're going to see some kind of 15...

15, 16, 18 sustained, which is not as much on a lakes course as it would be if we're in the US, but 20, 25 on our gusts on this golf course, as tight as it is, can wreak some habit. And I think we're going to kind of have periods of intermittent sort of rain blowing in and windy at times, okay at times. And I do think the weather may end up getting a little bit better over the weekend. So

You know, the weather to me, I think, is going to be harsher than people expect because that's just Scotland and it can kind of come out of nowhere. Particularly Thursday and Friday. Yeah, Thursday and Friday. I think it's going to be a little bit better on the weekends. But I think the winning score probably gets to the

14, 15, 16, 17 type of range, depending on just how bad the bad weather is. I mean, would it shock me? If this thing totally laid down, does this get to 20? Sure. But the weather's not going to totally lay down in my opinion. And I think, you know, I think it's more likely to be 15 than it is 20, but I think it's much more likely to be, you know, 17 than it is 12, right? So that's where my mind lives on this. I'd be shocked if it were eight or nine, that would shock me.

Yeah, I agree with you. And I think the Henrik Phil 2016 was a little bit of a misnomer, right? Because, you know, third place was minus six, right? And those guys, I mean, yeah, Phil Mickelson, who finished second, played well enough to win like 97 of the last 100 majors with that performance. So I think that

is a little bit of a misnomer in terms of the ability that, that guys have to get to 20 under on this golf course, particularly with the changes that they've made, beefing up the golf course in some certain spots a little bit. 17, right. I was just one more thing is we can talk about a little bit earlier. These sort of, they've taken distance in the right places at the margins to make certain shots that,

really hard and potentially unmanageable like 17s a par three coming home playing 240 240 on a flat hole with no downhill help with no wind helping i mean the what that does is okay sure can rory mcelroy or bryson or you know can those guys hit a two iron in there yes

But other guys can't. Other guys are pulling head covers off, which really creates a big difference. Now, I'm not saying that Brian Harmon can't hit a three wood onto that green. Certainly he can. But there's a pretty, you know, it kind of distances at those places where it makes a huge difference, whether you're hitting your four iron or you're hitting a three wood, particularly with a small green that's not really meant to receive a wood, because that's what 17 is. And I think those kind of holes, even though there's gonna be a lot of birdies, you know, there'll be fours and fives made there.

Yeah, they also made the par fives a lot harder. So they took the easiest holes on the course and they made them a hell of a lot tougher. Like they moved the tee back on 16, which is the home par five, which is what players are going to feel like their last true birdie opportunity. They moved the tee back to a point where players...

I mean, it's going to take a massive drive to carry that burn in the correct win. And from what I've heard from practice rounds today, a lot of players were hitting three wood off the tee. And then your only chance of hitting that green in two shots is if you hit an incredible three wood or two iron from 250 to 270 yards out. Like that is how you make plays.

par fives difficult for the modern player is you don't allow them to get in a position where they can hit driver six iron into a par five, like some of these other par fives on the PGA tour do. So I'm with you. I'm kind of, I'm kind of swimming in the, uh,

13 to 17 under range, I think. And, and that 13 to 17 under range also could mean that somebody shoots 15 under, and we don't have another player above double digits. Like, I think that's very likely at Liverpool. We saw Brian Harmon shoot 13 under and a second place was seven under and

I wouldn't be surprised if we got some more scoring. I think maybe it's a little bit easier than Liverpool in terms of the wind forecast that we're getting, at least on the weekend. But that sounds about right to me. Final question before we get into the players. I think a lot of people have the question about stacking at Open Championships.

How much are you going to value this? Because I think that you could probably make the argument that, hey, well, we don't know what the weather is going to be. We don't know what wave is actually going to definitively receive the advantage. But what we can probably definitively say in Scotland is that

Some wave well, right? So do you see that? I think I did this last year and it worked out pretty well, but do you see value in some stacks in either direction? There's some value in stacks because as you say, even though it's hard to predict which, you know, if you have stacks sort of everywhere, there's correlation there.

to getting, you know, getting through clean. And I think we saw that at Shroom last time, which is that the guys, you know, Mickelson and Stinson kind of got the best of it. And other guys too, that, you know, they, they snuck out there and, and kind of had soft greens after the other guys had gotten beaten up by sideways rain and wind. So, you know, there's some folly in thinking that you're going to predict it exactly. And then over going over weight on one side versus the other. But if you're,

you know, willing to take some stacks on sort of different weather windows, because it's not always like, oh, the early late had a great draw this time. It's sometimes like the guys in the middle in a certain little hour and a half, you know, kind of window where the guys, they got to play the hard holes in light wind, right? It's stuff like that. So if I'm going to be doing any stacking, it's going to be kind of a very,

sort of narrow strategy of taking little hour and a half or two hour tea time blocks. Because again, you know, this is a, one of the majors that just starts early and rolls you through the day, right? We don't have a traditional early late finish. It's just rolling tea times from six in the morning until four in the afternoon. Right. So that's what I'm going to do. Well, two hour chunks. Yeah. I think that's well said. Okay. Let's talk about the 10K range. Scottish Shelfers, 12.8.

Bryson DeChambeau is 11-5. Roy McIlroy is 11-4. Xander Schauffele is 11-2. Jon Rahm, 10-4. Ludwig O'Bear, 10-1. We're recording this a little bit earlier than we usually do on Monday evening. It's 8 p.m. Eastern time. I have a

I would say that we're both pretty good at predicting ownership, but there's not really any sites with projections out right now. If they do have them, probably a lot is going to settle within the next 24 to 48 hours. But how would you assess this 10K range? We always do favorite play, guy you're absolutely not playing, and any more wide-reaching thoughts on maybe roster construction.

Yeah, I think Xander's going to get squeezed a little, which is great because I think he's playing good. And I think a golf course where you need to drive it in the driving has been a little bit scruffy from Xander. He's doing he does everything well, but he's not necessarily been himself off the tee. But that's a pretty short range form idea. We've got a huge, massive, long range sample that Xander Shoffley is a.

Not just a good driver of the ball, but a great driver of the ball. Long, straight, all that. Fairly hardy. I know we talked about him being a house cat, but he's sort of predictable off the tee. I think he's going to get squeezed a little bit. I think Rahm will be super low on, but I think Xander will be lower on than he probably should be just because...

you know, everybody's going to play Rory. I think Scotty's going to draw a lot of ownership. Obviously, Lydvig and Morikawa are going to draw ownership down below. So at 11-2, Xander feels like just expensive enough that people might be off of him more than they should. Obviously, Rory's an interesting question because he's underpriced, in my opinion, for this venue with as straight as he's hitting it this year. He's kind of turned...

He's not a different player, but his profile is a little bit different here recently. He's turned into a more accurate guy than he has been in the past. The big foul ball misses that might have killed him here are kind of not really in his repertoire right now. I mean, they could always pop their head up. So I think he should be more like 11-8, 11-9. And I think with the 5K range being in play this week, he's a pretty easy click. So I think he's going to climb in ownership.

And Scotty's an interesting question. I think you can fit him, and I think he's going to be a little bit undervalued compared to what we normally see. So, you know, I'll have Rory. I'll have some Rory. I think I'll have some Scotty and some Xander, and I'm probably going to leave the rest of the range alone. Yeah. I'll start with Scheffler because Scheffler's my favorite in this range, and I'm currently leaning towards...

playing Scheffler in 50% of my lineups and fading every single other player in this range, including Rory, which would be the first time that I faded Rory in DFS in a major championship in as long as I can remember. I can provide the case for why I'm considering doing that, but I'm a little... I shouldn't say confused because I understand how people's brains work when something bad happens in DFS, but I'm a little...

Still a little confused about why myself included kind of penciled him in as the U.S. Open winner. And there isn't any of that collective industry fear on Sheffield this week when particularly after what I figured out about Pinehurst later in the week, this is at minimum as good of a golf course for Sheffield as Pinehurst. Like you think about the I mean, I heard.

Some of the guys I've spoken to today were throwing out like all of these golf courses with a high miss fairway penalty. So the golf courses with a high miss fairway penalty on the PGA tour, uh,

DBC Zagras, Mirafield Village, Bay Hill to a certain extent. One of the easiest ways for Scottie Scheffler to separate is with the accuracy, the combination of accuracy and length, right? Like he's not the longest driver in the field. He's not as long as Bryson or Rory, but typically week in and week out, he's more accurate than Bryson and Rory. And the way that I'm breaking down this golf course is that basically

Off the tee, total driving accuracy is going to be a massive skill separator this week. And I think one of the other reasons, again, I talked about this briefly on the Sunday pod. I think one of the reasons why I've been like, I've,

My sense on Scotty's been up and down this year. He's been responsible for really good weeks for me. And I've had some misses on him too, to the weeks that I had misses on him where I didn't play him at all. We're heritage and travelers. And I think one of the reasons why I didn't play him because I said to myself, eyes are wedge fast putting contests. You actually dive into it. Like Sheffler is the best wedge player in the world. Like,

inside 125 yards sheffler is the best at hitting it within seven feet consistently and like i said i think there's going to be a lot of high leverage uh wet shots on the front nine where you need to make birdie so i guess i'll kick it back to you i love this week yeah i kind of came to that realization and i i sort of talked to you a little bit about in the u.s open i i bet scotty at uh

um, at the travelers. And, you know, you would, you would kind of indicated that you thought, and he is still a great long iron mid iron player. That's still true. Um, and I, the more you watch him, the more you realize, how does he get back into that round at the players? He holds out a wedge on the hard hole that everybody else is making five on. He makes a two and he's so consistently good at being in the fairway and sticking it to four and a half feet. When other guys are sticking it to nine feet on some of those holes, um,

And so that makes a lot of sense to me. What I said in our U.S. Open pod, and I was kind of famously been out on Scotty a lot. And sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm not. I was fairly out on him at Pinehurst for one reason. And I think what I said was when things get weird, Scotty gets a little off. And then, of course, there were all the

about how he didn't like the unpredictability of the waist areas and whatnot, which, you know, he ended up kind of saying that too. Oh, I didn't like when my ball went off the fairway and I didn't really know what it was going to be. I told you that I like him best, the greener the courses get. I mean, and you said, well, what about the masters, right? That's the one outlier. And I said, yeah, it's hard to explain that. He kind of likes predictable golf. Yeah.

And so the case against him is there's no place in the world less predictable than the West Coast of Scotland and the rough and the gorse. And there's all these pot bunkers and, you know, balls rolling in weird places. And it's possible that he's this Dallas kid who's uncomfortable in a strange place. He hasn't played well there.

I've watched him slump his shoulders worse at the St. Andrews Open. So that's the case against him. The case for him is –

This might be a sort of a Scottish version of the, not of the travelers. I don't want to besmirch Troon in that way, but, you know, kind of a more plotting green. Sawgrass, right? Like that's the, that's kind of what, which is what we talked about with Liverpool last year too. That's exactly right. So, and if that's the case, then the question is, can he keep his head down?

There's also reason to maybe question his sort of prep. I mean, the way ordinarily he's a guy who plays a lot. Yeah. I did shoot 63 at Turnberry yesterday. Allegedly. That's an open question, whether that's a real round. But, you know, what's more legit, Scheffler 63 at Turnberry or the club championship trophy from Trump hanging at the clubhouse? Yeah.

You know, I just worry a little bit about – I don't love the prep. I don't love that he's taking the family to Colorado over the fourth and coming in late to Scotland and not playing. So there's reasons to kind of – if you wanted to talk yourself into fading him, my issue with it this week is, you know, normally the reason to fade Scheffler is that he's 48% owned. Like this isn't – that's not going to happen this week. And you're right that people –

It's kind of out of sight, out of mind. Like they forget that he didn't win his last start. Yeah. I don't think Shuffler is like sneaking up on anybody, but you remember what content was like us open week. Like, why aren't, why aren't we at least closer to that? Yeah, that's a, it's a good question. I think it's out of sight, out of mind. He's, you know, just hadn't played in a minute. He's kind of well, and people were, they'd gone too far to one side and then, you know, like tweeted out. He,

he's not a man he's a machine you know he's not a machine he's a man like the rocky meme you know people and then so when when he got taken off the pedestal he fell very hard and of course then he bounces back and wins his next event right which is like you would think this week he would still be very popular and it's easier to fit him in you know given the options that you have down low so i don't know i mean scotty could be the guy that ends up being the

sneaky chalk that nobody really talks about and everybody realizes, oh my God, let's play Scotty. I worry about that a little bit. I think I'm going to have some this week though. After talking all that shit about him, I think this is a good week to play. Yeah, well, I think what happened at Pinehurst, the result on people's psychology is that was the first time where people realized that P40 is in the range of outcomes. And I got to give you props for

Talking about how we shouldn't be so sure that the putter was completely fixed. I mean, he didn't drive the ball great at Pinehurst, but I know he complained about, you know, getting some bad lies out of the waste area and not love that loving that like that.

The reason why Scotty Scheffler finished 40th at Piners, he lost six strokes putting like he put it absolutely horrendously. He still hit his irons incredibly well, and he still drove the ball well enough to at least finish top 10. But I think when you have a player that everybody thought in the

in their heads was this auto walking free square top 10 that they could just set in their lineup and they'd get the top 10 out of him on the low end and a win on the high end and then figure the rest of their lineup out later. I think when people realize that

T40, him losing six strokes putting is in the range of outcomes. I think that does something to people's psychology with him. And I think he will be lower owned than Rory. I do. I do think he will be lower owned than Rory. I think he will be around 24, 25%. And I think Rory will probably be in that zone as well. A little bit higher.

I could see Scottie coming in a little bit lower than that and Rory coming in a little bit higher. I could see it more like 30-20 versus 24-28. That's at least the way it's shaping up right now. But there's a long way to go in the week. There's a lot to be said for the narratives that sort of can develop over the course of a Tuesday and a Wednesday in an open week.

Can I give you actually, you know what? Cause I, I'm curious if you're betting Rory. So we'll save the rest of the Rory stuff at the end, but I was going to give you like the anti Rory case, like the reason why I'm thinking about fading Rory for the first time in a major, but we can save that till the end. Cause I know people, people get unjustifiably upset when we spend too much time at Rory. So we'll do that at the end. The last question I want to ask you about this range is,

Rank these guys in terms of preference and in terms of highest to lowest ownership. Bryson, Rom, Ludwig. Reference? God. Rom, Ludwig, Bryson? I agree with you, Rom. I'd switch Ludwig and Bryson. I'm not a huge Ludwig guy this week. I've heard Rom was...

hitting the ball really well at Truin today. Well, I'm not a big Ludwig guy this week either, but I'm pretty low on Bryson just for kind of, I don't know, a number of reasons that I can explain. So those two, it's kind of a Rom and then I don't really like the other two. I think in terms of ownership, I think Rom will be the lowest owned. I think Ludwig is probably the highest owned of those. And I think, well, I don't know. I think Rom and Bryson will both be

fairly low, Leon, just given what we know about Rory and Xander eating up ownership. I can see Bryson coming in pretty low. For me this week, Bryson

It's almost like the Heisman Trophy theory. Anybody that's a college football fan for years and years and years, some quarterback wins the Heisman and he goes on the New York morning show tour and eats all the banquet food and gets a little bit fat on his own supply and then he fucks off in the bowl game. That's kind of what we saw with Bryson. There's been a lot of weird stuff that's happened in the last month with him. I don't know about the levels of focus. Of course, there's huge questions about him

in a place where, you know, he's not going to be able to get away with some of the misses. The only open he's played well at is St. Andrews. And I don't think that's not an open that we'll see this week. And Trune is like the,

Trune is a place I think I could say some sort of overthinking himself into the like weird spots and turn. It's a little bit like we talked about earlier. It's a place where you, you kind of have to vary your strategy according to the changing conditions. And that's not what he's great at. I think he's pretty good at coming up with a plan for a golf course on Monday and trying to execute it. But Trune, like any Scottish golf course,

is different depending on the conditions that you see it in. It can play one way in the morning, a different way in the afternoon. It can change. I mean, I've had...

Some of my rounds that I played in different courses in Scotland were, you know, hole to hole. It's just a totally different golf course. So I don't know. I don't trust Bryson's ability to adjust to that. But I do like Rom this week. I think he's in another world where Rom is playing great, which, you know, it'd be nice to see at some point this year. I think Shroon is sort of this gritty kind of,

a place where a big burly John Rahm can kind of cut a figure through the dunes. But whether or not he's mentally prepared to do that is a question. We're driven by the search for better. But when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search, match with Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast.

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Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much?

I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at midmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. I think that ROM is, again, not a super hot take by any means. I'd be pretty...

And it's just, it's tough to figure out whether I could fit him in and in draft Kings because you know, you can't play them all. And currently as it stands now, I'm only playing three guys above nine K, but I gotta say, man, I I'd be pretty surprised if Ron, if this isn't ROMs best major finish of the year, I understand low bar to clear. I don't think he's sharp enough to like win the golf tournament. Like you think about Kobe, uh,

When's the last time that John Roms hit a golf shot with consequence? The Ryder Cup? Like a real golf shot that had consequence. Sure. Probably the Ryder Cup, right? He was out of the Masters so quickly that, you know, I mean, maybe his tee shot on two in his first round of the Masters. I mean...

And he's not been relevant. I mean, obviously he didn't play the U S open, but it was awful. Yeah. It really probably is the Ryder cup and, you know, you watch and you watch all the videos. He's just growing more and more frustrated and he grumpy. John is grumpier, but you know, it golf's a funny game. The talent is still there. The long form talent. This is also a golf course where I think the ability to hit a cut can be pretty helpful in some of these golf holes, particularly on the,

We had a hard cut. I'm not talking about Morikawa's little poofy slice that he hits. Well, yeah. I was going to talk about that too, because I'm very worried about the right mess on this golf course. Well, the tight, what I'm talking about with John Rahm is this just sort of tight bowling ball sort of cut that he starts at those left bunkers and peels, you know, in a way that other guys don't. Other cutters of the ball have the spinning one, and he doesn't really have the spinning one. Like his miss is when he gets it going bowling ball left.

Right. You know, you very rarely see him come out of one and hit a little high hoover. So I think it gives him, you know, at least some edge in that regard. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I think he's going to top 20 this week. I really do. And I don't know if that's going to be enough to make my draft Kings pull at 10, four, but let's talk about the, let's talk about the nine K range.

Favorite, least favorite, any ownership takes? I think Morikawa has a chance to be the highest owned on the slate. I think he's going to be. I've heard it from all kinds of angles, from people that we respect, from people that I don't respect, from national funders to everybody is kind of in on Colin. And I've said this, I don't...

Mark Howell won a fake open with no fans at the fakest of all the open venues, you know, the South of England, good weather, no wind open. In terms of Scottish ethos, in terms of like what lengths golf is, I agree with you. I think that skillset wise, Royal St. George's is still more similar to this golf course than St. George's because St. George's was accuracy off the tee and approach play.

And St. Andrews was bomber punter. Sure. I agree with that. What I'm getting at is sort of the spirit of what makes the open hard and what is a challenge, right? Which is the unpredictability of the conditions and sort of the, I'm not one for mysticism, but kind of the magic stuff that happens the norther you get in the British Isles. But I worry a little bit about him in a venue like this where

I don't know, man. Hard wind and hard rain. To me, that ownership, he has miscut equity out the wazoo that other guys maybe don't have, particularly if he's going to come in 30% or whatever he's going to come in. Down here, I like Terrell Hatton a lot on this ballpark. I think him and Fleetwood will obviously both be pretty highly owned. I'm hoping that

Because Hatton's $200 more, he isn't going to be the forgotten one out of those two, but I'm hoping he comes in a little bit lower and Fleetwood eats up more of that ownership. So I do like him at that percentage. Sorry, that price. I'm going to keep my eye on ownership because I'm not going to play him if his ownership looks like it's going to be super elevated. But I think he's kind of got the skill set and game for this golf course, and

And, you know, it's possible that he gets squeezed a little bit between Fleetwood and Morikawa. I think I'm a little bit higher on like Morikawa's course fit here and just the way, and just the way that he's playing in terms of he's chipping and putting so well right now. And, and I've been so impressed by the well-rounded nature of his game and the fact that

If he's not driving the ball perfectly, his irons can pick up the slack. If he doesn't have one of those plus six, seven approach weeks, his short game and putting has been able to pick up the slack as well. I think my biggest concern with Morikawa is...

you alluded this, you alluded to this a little bit. I think we may, after what I saw him do and in pretty tough wind conditions and just a very firm golf course at the masters, I do think that he can play well, uh, in tougher windy conditions. I think the problem is just some of the holes, like you take 11, for example, uh,

All of the trouble is right. And the wind is blowing, right. And Morikawa hits the ball with the left to right spin. Like what is Morikawa do on 11? If you have that left to right, when like, do you know, do you know, do you know how hard he has to overcompensate to like find the fairway?

Well, there's a chance he does a little of what he did yesterday at the Scottish Open, which is on some of these holes where he's getting hard left or right wins. He's trying to do something that's not really his game and do something other than that. And then he started getting the pulls, started getting the sort of weird double-crossy stuff going on. That's my worry about him is that he recognizes the sort of, not deficiency, but the limitations in his ball flight and

starts trying to do things that are outside of his character. But I don't know what he does on that hole. I think he, you know, he's got to aim it, aim it at the course on the left and, you know, hope that, hope that he doesn't peel one off a little bit too hard. It's a, it creates, honestly, for me with Morikawa, I think there's just a few spots on this golf course where he could blow up because of that. Which for me, if he's going to come in at very high ownership, creates an opportunity for him to kind of eject himself.

And this is the same reason why I really dislike Wyndham Clark at this golf course. It's the same reason why I really like Tommy Fleetwood at this golf course. And I really like Corey Connors at this golf course. I think that low tight draw pricing kind of has a little bit of that too, um, is going to play really well here. Like even on the front nine, Kobe, uh,

So much of the trouble is right. The only way to get yourself in real trouble a lot of the times on the front nine is the big right mess. And that really can get exasperated on holes like 10 and 11 too. And I think if you're building an anti-Morikawa case, I'm giving you example of the tee shot on 11. This just could get super, super uncomfortable for him. To give you the

guy that I would be most high on in this range is I really do like Tommy Fleetwood on this golf course. And, and I, I understand the, the embarrassment of, of what it is like to, to tout Tommy Fleetwood to, to win major championships. Like I get all of that. I think because of his skillset, uh, the way that he pots on these slower greens, his ability to keep the ball in play off the tee, uh,

his overall approach play. I really do believe he possesses one of the highest floors in this field. And then if you're giving me the fade, I think it's just a first time dad year for Brooks. I, I, I he'll be back. I'm not sticking a fork in him. I think that I think he'll be awesome at like Oakmont next year, but I,

I don't think it's his year. I don't think it's his year. Maybe I should be more scared of him than I am. He's actually a much better open player than he gets credit for. He's been putting horrendously. He's going through putter changes. I get he'll be probably maybe too low-owned for what he should be, but no Brooks for me this week. He's another guy who I'm not sure loves being...

In weird, bad conditions. I know we've seen examples of him being a mutter, but at this point in his career, I'm not calling him a house cat, but I think there's... Brooks is your ultimate sort of checkout of the tournament guy when he's not feeling okay these days. In the past, he wouldn't. He won the US Open to Shinnecock from...

from the rear, but, um, you know, that's, that's not really him these days. And I think there's a ton of miscut equity in Brooks too, uh, just at a place like this where he almost miscut last year at Liverpool, um, when he was on better form, in my opinion. So I don't know. I'm with you on Brooks. I don't think I'll have any Brooks, even though his price is getting so inflated in the betting markets that it's, you know, it's tempting just to have a little bit of a nibble just in case he finds some old form. Yeah. Uh, 8k range, uh,

I worry that Finau, I mean, I bet Tony Finau 50 to one. I think he's playing some phenomenal golf at the moment. The rumblings that I've heard, I worry that he is in big time consideration for at least the highest owned player in this range and one of the highest owned players on the slate. So give me your assessment of the 8K range, maybe your favorite play and

Big time fade for you. Yeah, I like I like Finau's profile on this golf course, but I do think he's going to be massively owned. I think he's not he's not as cheap as he, you know, 8700 is a lot different from 82 or 800 or sorry, 8000. So Finau for me is going to be just kind of a purely ownership type fade with the hope that, you know, he finishes well.

a cut or finishes T48 or whatever. I don't mind Hideki. I think obviously he's going to be sort of under-owned. I'm not playing Tom Kim over Hideki. I think Hideki obviously missed the cut last week, but the form has not really been bad. He played great at Liverpool last year. I mean, he's coming off a US Open where he was high

Highly competitive. The around the green stuff has been awesome from him. Driver still looks pretty good. He's drove it well. He's played well at the Memorial. He's a guy, if you want to look at TBC Sawgrass type stuff, he gained what?

11 strokes ball striking at TPC Sawgrass. He's kind of a, I don't know, I think he's got the pedigree to sort of surprise and end up in the top five at reduced ownership. And I think he's got a pretty high floor too, assuming he's not hurt. So I think Hideki is interesting at his price and his ownership.

Like I said, I'm not in on Tom Kim. I'm way all the way out on Wyndham Clark for all the reasons that you said. I'm so out on Wyndham Clark. And he was a huge piece for me last week at the Scottish. He was a core play for me at the Scottish, which is a super unserious length scores. I'm going to need to see it on. I think there's holes where.

With a left to right win, he could hit a ball that ends up in another county of Scotland. Yeah, I think he's a major, major contestant in the will somebody hit the train contest this week. Or land a ball on the beach, or both. And I don't know that he's the kind of guy either that does a good job of adjusting strategy hole by hole, being aggressive, not being aggressive. That doesn't strike me as his...

And I think there's, he's got the potential to finish a hundredth here. And his ownership's not that low. It's not like he's going to- Made a huge Sunday charge. Yeah. Sure. And that's great. If I get 12% of the field on him, then sure. Pay the rate. Yeah. I just don't, I don't love high spin players with a giant goofy cut in the wind. I think that exasperates some of the problems with-

with playing with higher spin. I'll give a quick shout out to Shane Lowry. Sure, yeah. Big fan of his this week. I just, I trust his accuracy off the tee. He's sneakily one of the more accurate drivers of the ball, and that's really how he won the open at Port Rush, which I don't think is a super terrible comparison to what we'll see this week. I definitely think it's in the top three to five most similar opens to what we'll see this week in terms of required skill set performance

I just think it's a good spot for him crunched in between the Tom Kim who'll get a lot of ownership, Finau who'll get a lot of ownership, Wyndham Clark who'll get a lot of ownership as well. Let's do sevens. Bigger range. Lead us off here in the sevens.

Seven is a lot of interesting stuff. I know a lot of people are going to play Aaron Ryan, Corey Connors. I don't I would not play Aaron Ryan ever. I'm just kidding. I wouldn't play him here. Those ownership rise getting a lot of buzz as the and I love Corey Connors this week. Like, I think Corey Connors is the way more likely player.

brian harman candidate this year i think there's really something in the water with the way that connor's is trying is starting to figure out short game and putting and how he performs on slow greens but rye is getting i mean every rye is just getting the the brian harman treatment big time yeah the court connor's floor is interesting and he's made a gazillion cuts in a row i think for drafting's purposes you're

you're swallowing a lot of chalk for a pretty high floor and a pretty high ceiling. Whether, you know, if Aaron Rye weren't sitting right there beside him, he'd probably be pushing 20%, right? So you kind of, it's almost a Tyrell Hatton Fleetwood situation where you might get a little bit of a ownership discount on Connors because Rye-

I think so, Kobe, just because I think so many people are going to place a Heth too, and Noren, and Akshay, and Sungjae. So like not all these guys can be 10%, right? I think it's going to be one of those where Corey Connors-

You think he comes in at 12 and he comes in at 8, right? Yeah. Nice discount. And I think Norrin's going to end up being more popular than he probably should be. There's a lot of guys in this range that are going to be popular. I'm with you on Connors and I'm not normally a Connors guy, but I just love the floor play.

You know, just in general in this range, I don't know. I mean, Spieth interests me if the ownership's low enough. Me too, but I got to throw a hand up on just like Spieth and Hovland are the two players this year that I've been most consistently incorrect on. Well, I'll say this. The reason why Spieth interests me this week, if it is a place where driving is going to be emphasized, then

That's what he's somehow become a good driver. Pretty much all he's got. Right. And that interests me here. If that's going to give you an edge on the field and you can kind of figure it out after you get it in play, you know, I don't hate him at this. It's finally, we've gotten to the point where his price is low enough that you're not,

Previously, if you're going to take a shot on Spieth, he's your third man in, but he can be your fourth man in at this price, depending on your build, if you're going heavy in the eights and nines. He's low enough price that he gives you some flexibility. Other stuff in this range, I think a lot of people are going to be on Sepp Strzoka, which I don't mind. He hits it super straight. I've got some interest there. Obviously, last year's performance

Gives you some indication that he can kind of gut out some conditions. Interested to see what people do with Minwoo Lee. I'm not really a Minwoo Lee guy. Generally speaking, the approach play was just so god-awful. We're two starts removed from him nearly winning the tournament, and he's got how many tournaments in a row of good driving? I mean...

It's really good stuff off the tee from him. So don't hate him. A guy who has obviously shown that he can play. And, you know, talk about Miss Fairway, the penalty, you know, the Honda, right? Or excuse me, the classic. Yeah. Right there. So I think there's some, and the players, you know, it's the guy who was what, in the final group of the players last year. It was last year. Man with a leg.

Yeah. Yeah. He was up there. He was up there. Well, I know he putted his face off and he finished sixth of the players last year. So, you know, this is somebody who, um, ordinarily, I think the case against men will leave is I don't want 18% memory, but I think you're going to see him, um, a little bit under on this week. So, um,

Might have a little bit of that. Cameron Young's interesting. Yeah. I think Cameron Young kind of market corrects Minwood Lee for me. Like, I think you get everything you're looking for off the tee with Cameron Young with better approach play. Sure. And, and less better open form. Yeah. Less of a head case. Well, that's maybe that's, that's a good point. Those two guys are, those are very interesting. I,

Cameron Young to me has the upside to win this golf tournament, which you don't see a lot in the low seven thousands. I mean, I'm not saying he's going to win this golf tournament, but he obviously has the sort of pedigree that he can do it. So he's interesting to me. I don't know. This is a range where there's, I don't really like the popular guys. Like I'm not playing Batia at 14%. You know, I'm not going to be on Aaron Rye. I'm not playing Brian Harmon. Um,

I just think there's a lot of upside and fading. Brian Harmon this week kind of with... Bobby Mack feels like a pretty easy fade. He may still be drunk by the time Thursday rolls around. 100%. He's like one of the only guys in the field who's just open and honest about...

He makes no bones about it. I think he's somebody that I can check off the list pretty easily. I also think Saheth has a very decent chance to be the highest owned player in this range. I think there's somewhat of a chance that Saheth rivals...

I think Zahid will be higher on than Connors. I think that he'll rival Rye. I mean, Zahid is a guy that is chalk in the high sevens at major championships and is now 7.2 coming off a fifth place finish. The one thing that I will say, you know, Brian Harmon last year was 12% 7.2. And I faded him on ownership. And I do think that

There are a lot of guys in this range that fit this course profile very well that are in great form that are just objectively good plays. The one thing I would say is

I don't think it's wise to play all of them because you have every single one of them in your field and you're playing five guys in the low sevens and high sixes that are in the 10% zone. What you're just going to try and get double the field on every single one of them. So like, I think of this group of Aaron Rye, Corey Connors, Sahith Tagala, Akshay Bhatia, Sung J.M., who could be 15%, Russell Henley, and Adam Scott, uh,

Those are seven guys that are probably going to be between 15 and 7%, give or take. And I think two out of the seven are going to smash, right? Maybe three out of the seven. I think it's the right number. I think you pick your two. I mean, depending on how aggressive you want to go. If it's for me, it's you pick your one or two and you try, you try to land those. And then you're, cause this is where,

the carnage to your cut line comes from right here. $7,000 player who has miscut equity out the ass, who's 15% on. And this is, this is the range that people love. Like we haven't talked a lot about lineup construction, but I think there's a lot of mistrust in the low sixes. There's not one guy in the fives that everybody agrees is super mispriced. I think you are going to see, uh,

six between 6.7 and 7.3 people are going to live i mean a very common build might be shaffler female and then four guys between 7.3 and 6.9 sure i think louis even going down to 6.8 louis and davis thompson are both going to be popular and yeah you say and i mean that is the range i

where I'm going to spend a lot of time figuring out my game theory strategy just because there's so much opportunity there if half those guys miss the cut, right? So the question that I want to

answer for myself is, do I fade that entire range, but hoping that none of the seven plays so well that they kill me, right? I think some of those guys have like win equity. Like I bet Conor's a hundred to one to win. I bet Henley won 70 to one to win. I get it. Do they have win equity? Sure. I don't disagree that out of that group that you've named, you know, there's some percentage of the time that one of them wins. The question is,

you know, this, this is where I think you could in a week where those guys don't play to any kind of ceiling and they're either just okay, or they're missing cuts or things of that nature. This is where your six to six percentage plummets. And if you're away from that range, or if you go very light in that range and happen to pick the one or two guys that do play well, you are cruising versus all the builds that just sort of overloaded on them, particularly because those builds are then going to,

you know, end up on Rory and end up on Scotty Scheffler. So if you're going to be on Rory and Scotty, we're just Scotty or one of those guys at the top, then figuring out what you're going to do down here in this very popular range, I think is, is paramount. Yeah. And I think that I would, of that seven, my two favorites are Connors and Henley. Like I, I bet those players and I I'm just tremendously high on Connors and Henley this week. Um,

I think I'm going to full-fade Sungjae and Sehith. I get their misprice, but I would rather... The problem with Sehith particularly, and Sungjae fits this mold to a certain extent, but he doesn't have, I think, maybe the Lynx resume that a guy like Aaron Rye does. I also like Siwoo Kim a lot to a certain extent, but...

I really do think that if you start looking at what Brian Harmon was doing prior to winning and what Zach Johnson was doing prior to winning and what, you know, Sepp Straka was doing prior to finishing second here, there's a tremendous correlation between guys that hit the ball straight off the tee and are just playing good right now. Like that works perfectly.

Very well at the open. That is a very safe bet at the open of like, does he hit ball straight off the tee? Yes. Is he in good recent form? Yes. And I actually think those guys are live.

Look, it's the Open. Anything could happen. I think sometimes we get a little bit. We see a winner like Brian Harmon. Yeah, I'm trying not to be a prisoner of the moment. There is a stronger historical precedent of it, though. Like, if you go back, it's not just Harmon. No, and I don't disagree with you. I think it's a good formula for finding guys who have an opportunity to be there on Sunday. I do think the Open—well, the Open's been won by—

Guys in good form in general, I think good players in good form have had a tendency to sort of go gangbusters at the open. It's not a place where you find your game. I think that's true if you're good or if you're bad. It's not a place where you show up and find it. I heard, I was listening to No Laying Up today, and they said,

You know, talking about, oh, Max Homa. Oh, maybe he gets out in the links and it engages his brain and he finds it. Okay, maybe. I heard that take. I disagreed with that. Yeah, that's fine. You know, they're talking about Max Homa. That's their friend. They're trying to, you know, pump him up. But I think it's a... Not a place where you find your game. And I think any of us...

who've played sort of links golf, understand that like you get out there in that wind and those conditions. And if you don't have it, you are, you would rather be anywhere else on the planet than having to fight that wind without your, your best stuff. So I think the, uh, if we're talking like lower owned place in that range that I'm a huge fan of,

Jason Day was a tremendous... I'll flex this one because I bet Scotty Scheffler at the Open last year at Liverpool. But Jason Day knows how to play these golf courses. And I understand he'd maybe have a better finish this week if he was able to throw the ball onto the green instead of hit an iron. But his Open track record is really, really strong. And I

And I think his floor is higher. Like if,

if Jason day's first round leader this week and like a animal mall bond fit, I don't think anyone's surprised. And that's kind of what happened, uh, at Liverpool where it was like, we did Sunday afternoon and Jason day still T2. Um, and I was, you know, I, I had a ton of him that week and, uh, I'm going back. So I think like of the, uh,

of the guys in this range that'll be lower. And I don't think, do you think Louie's going to be popular? Cause I, I'm a big Louie fan this week too. I was hoping that he wouldn't be super popular. I think Louie's going to be popular. I think he played sort of well enough last week. Yeah. The links form. I've seen some buzz on Twitter about Louie from, you know, folks. And he played well last year at the open. Just kind of, you know, what? And third and 2021. I mean, it's kind of,

discounting the non open. I mean, St. Andrews, I love St. Andrews, my favorite place in the world, but it's not an open course in the same way that other courses are. We've discussed that. So yeah, I think the links form, I think when people type in Louis, Louis stays in the, the open and they see 23rd, third, 20th, 28th, second, you know, at that price coming off pretty good form, um,

I think he will have a tendency to sneak up and there's a lot of price savings at 68 too. Yeah. I mean, just based on the way the math works, one of these guys is going to have to be lower than we think though. I agree with that. Maybe it's Akshay. I don't know. I like Sep Straka a decent amount and I don't think he'll be super highly owned. I like Siwoo Kim a lot as like a,

This is everything that you're asking for in Aaron Rye. You're getting with Siwoo Kim in terms of his accuracy off the tee shot, the lowest round on the golf course at the Renaissance club on Sunday. And the only difference is like Siwoo Kim has showed you that he could win a massive golf tournament. Oh, by the way, the players, a golf course with a very high miss fairway penalty. So any bombs you want to throw out there? Any, I, I,

Gosh, I tell you, I have like two guys at six and six too, but I'm not really dumpster diving this week too much. I love Ernie Els. I love Ernie Els this week. Coming off the senior PGA win, I mean, the guy's been playing phenomenal golf on the senior tour. He's played well at Troon in the past.

I think this is a guy, I'm not saying he's going to win this golf tournament or anything like that, but I think he can make the cut down there at what, $5,100? The form of the senior tour has been awesome. Not that it necessarily matters, but we like Ernie Els. I'll tell you who else I like.

And I'm not the first person to throw his name around, so I'm not going to claim this. But I'm hearing a lot of buzz about $5,400 Dominic Clemens. I don't know who that is. It's an amateur. It's an amateur from the UK, and he plays in the US. But really, really, really good player. I like Dominic Clemens. And maybe if you're into betting, I like him to potentially win the –

what is it, the silver medal? Sure. Yeah, we like Dominic Clemens, and I think maybe even take a shot on Dominic Clemens if you fancy. What did he win? He won something at Muirfield. Here, let me tell you. He won the Scottish Open Amateur at Muirfield at 21 this year in June. He shot 68, 65, 65, 62, and he won by...

Oh, and he's transferring now to Alabama. So that tells you a little bit about what we're talking about in terms of the talent. Like I think he was somewhere in Georgia, some small college. And now, of course, he's entered the transfer portal and he plays for Alabama now. He won by 17 shots at the Scottish men's, sorry, not the Scottish amateur, the Scottish men's open championship. So look, if you can win the Scottish men's open championship, then you can win the open championship. All you got to do is just cut out the first two words.

But he won it by 17. So we're talking about a guy who can play. I think we have to like Dominic Clemens a little bit. I hope he comes in at 10% now. That'd be funny. But yeah, put a little bit of time on Dominic Clemens. And when you see him, when he's doing the Christo Lampric and he's leading like midway through Thursday morning at four in the morning, like tweet at me. Let me know about your Dominic Clemens bets at 1,000 to 1.

Sure. I'm going to, yeah, I guess I'll have to spend more time on him. I'm pretty hesitant to, uh, to throw out too many crazy bombs that are like kind of a bit kind of, I believe in because, um,

I took the Stu Hagestad bit like way too far at the US Open where people and I know this is a testament to the money that I've helped many people make this year. But like people actually played Stu Hagestad when I didn't play Stu Hagestad. I just like talking about Stu Hagestad.

And I actually felt tremendously guilty about that because Stu Hagestant was one under through three. And then I think proceeded to four putt from three feet and shoot like 79, 79 for a very uncompetitive miscut. There's some names down here. Tom McKibbin's a real guy. I probably like him on more driver heavy golf courses because I think power is his biggest asset there.

Emiliano Griot plays really well at opens. Emiliano Griot finished sixth last year and is a really accurate driver of the ball, a good wind player, and has some very solid open track record success. He finished top 20 at Troon as well in 2016, as well as sixth at Liverpool. I played Vic Perez last week at 6.2 in Scotland, and he played quite well. He shot up the leaderboard on Sunday and finished T10, I believe.

But those are really the only names that I would throw out there, sir. Can I tell you something else about our friend Dominic Clements? Sure. Second, the amateur, you know, the British Open AM is called the amateur, kind of like it's the Open. And only as you win the Scottish Men's Open Championship...

uh shooting 24 under in your field in may he then goes and finishes second in you know their equivalent of the usam at valley lytham so we've got a guy coming off you're talking about i mean we are kind of talking about it right like form sure is this amateur form yes but look at what the neil shipley's of the world guys who've been able to compete at a pretty high level and the you know

Luke Clanton's and whatever I've been able to do. And I think this is a guy next year who we'll be talking about in a similar vein. So, you know, not the worst pick. If you can find him in some markets, I'm not saying pick him to win the Open, but if you can find him in some sort of top amateur markets at, you know, 21, things like that, you may want to think about it.

Sweet. Well, let's finish with Rory, man. Where are we at? I mean, we've talked off air since what happened at Pinehurst, but certainly not on a podcast. And I'm sure folks are waiting on on bated breath to hear an official remark on where you're at with Rory and major championships going forward. Is he your pick to win this week? Well, I was on an airplane, so I didn't get to watch the last episode.

I don't know, six holes with the US Open?

Jesus Christ, you should have seen the way I got sucked back in on that front nine. I was sitting there. I was like, this is it. It's time. We've been waiting for this Rory putting around for 10 years. And then when it didn't happen, I was every bit as crushed as I was sitting there. At St. Andrews and at LACC, it hurt, man.

Well, here's how I was following the open. The only thing I could get because I had Wi-Fi on United, but I didn't have streaming. So I was following it on a delayed shot tracker. But the thing that was updating live was the DraftKings app. So I was not the DFS app, but the betting app. So I'm watching the changes in the odds.

which told me everything I needed to know about Rory missing two footers. You know, when he goes from minus 600 to plus 110, I'm watching and knowing exactly what happened by seeing the change in the odds, which is an excruciating way to watch him lose, by the way, because you just see it go. And this is what happened with the Bryson. So Rory goes to like minus 120 when Bryson hits it in the bunker, even after the missed putt. And I was like, oh, we're golden. Bryson must be fucked.

immediately Bryson goes to, after he hits the shot, he goes to like minus 1600. And I was like, Oh, what, what happened? You know, I'm just like, Oh, got it. You know, the only good thing we got to quote today, I love Rory taking a shot at Riggs Barstool's Pinehurst saying basically, no, I didn't cry over Pinehurst. He basically just said, this is a stupid resort in North Carolina. Why would I cry over that? I cry over the open. I knew you would love that.

I mean, it's just so good because he's right. Like in the big scheme of things, he's like, no, that one hurt way worse because this is a dumb U.S. Open with dumb Bryson and his dumb trophy and this dumb people screaming USA at me. It hurts way more to lose the Open at St. Andrews. Yeah, because that's true. Big picture?

Like love the fight. Like he was three down and he got some bad breaks on that front nine, like balls rolling off of par five greens, making bogeys when he within two feet of making birdies and fights back. And he's got a two shot lead on the back nine starting three down, like took the tournament by the throat.

Obviously, short putting misses kill you. Bad strategic decisions. Just all of it. I mean, everybody's seen it. Just hard to watch. Hard to watch the replays. Was glad he took some time off. Thought about flying down to the Bears Club myself and just giving him a big, giant bear hug. He needed the Bears Club hug. But...

you know, if you believe he's going to win another one at some point, then that awful thing that happened becomes like another data point on the road to redemption. And maybe, maybe the place that he can win, and I'm not saying he's going to win at Troon, but it obviously would make much more poetic sense for him to win in the aisles. And I think he's going to have wonderful crowd support. Um, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles it. Um,

I think he plays well this week. As I said, I think his new profile as a golfer is a little bit more cerebral. He's they saw it with a change in his driver. He's like he's hitting 10 percent more fairways this year. Yeah. And, you know, Stinson hit three woods around there. And what did we see from Rory at Pinehurst that made him so effective? He was hitting a lot of three woods. He said, yeah, I think that's going to help him here. I think he is the kind of golfer.

as we talked about, that can put the pedal down on the holes where you've got to go get birdies. So I think it suits him. I do think it de-emphasizes long irons, as I've heard you say, which does not allow him to shine as much as it would. But I do think there's enough chances on high leverage shots, like those long par 3s,

And then the par fives where now he might be the only guy along with five other guys hitting a long iron into those greens where he's going to have some chances to separate. And the question is with 10 of those chances in this tournament,

Can he take advantage of eight of them? Right. It really is going to come down to a small number of shots, which is why I think the drama is going to be excellent. Whether I bet him or not depends on whether he continues to slide up near that nine. Yeah. Plus he's eight and a half now at circa. I don't like him at seven and I haven't made futures bets on him to juice him up. He slides closer to nine. I'm probably in if he slides back down to seven.

I'm probably also in, I just won't tell anybody about it. Um, so, you know, we'll see. Yeah. So, I mean, it seems like you're kind of reaching the stance that I have gotten to recently with Roy, where I'm not betting him to win these majors at short numbers. I'm not necessarily expecting him to win majors at, at these short numbers, but he's definitely a draft Kings play for you. And probably one of the more likely players to, to be there on Sunday. Um,

I got to say, as a fan, I thought that was, I know Rory said the St. Andrews one was the worst, but this was a major, for me, of the three big ones recently, Pinehurst, LACC, and St. Andrews.

This was the one where I stood to gain the least financially. He was heavily invested in my DraftKings lineups, but I still played enough Sheffler where whether he won or finished T2, it wouldn't have made a huge financial impact for me. This was kind of the major where I felt like

Like heading into it, I had kind of just emotionally let go in terms of like how I would feel if it happened. And God, just as a fan, that...

I was devastated for him, man. I was devastated. I was watching with my girlfriend. She was like, are you going to speak? Can you form a sentence right now? It took me at least 20 minutes to snap back into it because I just think that

These opportunities are so, so, so fleeting, man. And this is why whenever I do a major over-unders pod with LeMond, you're a porter, you just hammer the unders because you don't realize how little of these opportunities to really win a major championship on the back nine really happen. I mean, how many majors in the next five years are,

Is Scottie Sheff are going to lose six strokes putting how many majors in the next five years is Ludwig Aber Obear going to make two triples over the weekend? It just how many majors in the next five years is John Rom going to be going through an identity crisis, right? I just...

It is so fleeting. And I think the way that I feel about it this week is probably the stance that I'm at is I like the course fit less than I did at Pinehurst. And I think I don't even know if I'm going to end up playing him on DraftKings, but

Man, if he gets close on Sunday, I just know my ability to compartmentalize and tell myself it doesn't matter. You could just throw that right out the window. Once again, financial impact, non-financial impact. He's the one guy. It doesn't fucking matter for me. Well, I'm with you on that. And I will say, you know what we talked about? Guys who hit it straight and they were playing good.

And he's playing good. He's playing real good. And he's playing good at tough places. And he's hitting the ball straight. And I think he's an underrated scrambler. And his short game recently sort of on links, I mean, he's putting the ball in the right spots. There's a lot to like here this week. I don't just think the one question that, you know, I want to know, I want to see him get contention on the back nine just because he's a sports fan. How are you handling four runs?

four footers coming down the stretch in your next major. Like it's a fascinating question to see how he handles that, whether you like Rory or not, that's, that's good drama. Love to see him stand over a five footer with a chance to tire when the open, I mean, just. Well, that was kind of, that was kind of my red flag that I'm kind of leaning more towards having him be on the outside, looking in for me and draft Kings is, you know,

I thought Rory had a really good opportunity at the Scottish Open to silence. I mean, he's never really going to silence people until he does it at a major. But I don't know how closely you watched Rory at it at Genesis. Dude, Rory missed a ton of short putts. Like he putted horrendously at Genesis, particularly inside five feet.

Kobe, he missed a pot the same length of the pot on 16 at Piners, right? At the Genesis again. And I don't know whether that's a focus thing and let's not do the whole Harry Diamond thing. That one's gone way too far in the other direction. Or if it's a scar tissue thing that maybe has gone too far in the direction. But the one thing that Rory could have done at the Scottish Open to make

Make me feel a little bit better. Maybe make betters feel a little bit better. It's like make every single three foot putt. And he didn't do that. He missed a fair amount of short putts. He did not putt well at the Scottish open. And that's a bit of a concern to me. And then I also think Kobe, like the wedges thing with Rory gets overblown. If Rory's even through three, like he's got to hit, he's, he's got to hit a couple wedges this week.

to five feet. He's got to do it. And he's got to stand up there on the first three holes and go one under through three. And those first three holes, Kobe are nothing more than four iron sandwich for him. That's it. And those can not be pars. They can not be pars. And I think that's the reason why I'm a little bit less high on his course fit here than I am at other majors. But

God, who knows? Even at even, even saying that he's what the, probably the second or third most likely player at worst to be relevant in the golf tournament. I think that's right. I trust his ability. The reason I like him here, really, I trust his ability to sort of big boy handle the tough holes coming home into the wind. If there's one thing you saw that

The thing that he did that was so impressive at Pinehurst and the reason he probably should have won that tournament is he was making hard into the wind holes look easy. Like I think number two was such a hard hole at Pinehurst and he's stepping up and hitting bombs and having seven iron in while other guys are hitting four iron. And he's given himself, he gave himself 25 feet for birdie on that Sunday, which, you know, like 30% of the field hit the green and he had a 20 footer for birdie.

And I think he's going to turn some of those potholes into reasonable chances or outside chances at birdie. And if you do, that's where he puts himself ahead of. It's like he did at fine hearse. Then he stands a great chance of winning the tournament. All right, my friend, um, we, I'm sure we'll, um, have many conversations before next April. Um, but, uh,

Final major of the year. Who's your winner? One name. Oh, oh man. Everybody would expect me to say Rory here. So I'm going to say Rory here. You know, I'm brand going to be right. One of these days, Andy. Yeah. I'll say, yeah, I'll say, oh gosh. I mean, the, the,

The guy that we didn't talk about that I bet. No, I'm not going Fleetwood. I think he has a really, really high floor, and I bet him because I didn't know what else to do. I could see Cantlay winning this. I bet that's what this week already is. Yeah, I know we didn't talk about it. I thought the 45-1 was a damn good number. Disrespect. And I bet Cantlay this week.

And I think I'll probably play him in DFS, but I bet Fleetwood and Cantlay at the top. Sneaky form. He's got some sneaky Brian Harmon form coming into this thing.

Right. Well, it's just like, God, how long have we been waiting for Cantlay to hit shots of consequence in a major? And he finally did that, and he held up pretty well. Cantlay was smart, and he didn't. Yeah, Cantlay did not eject at Pyters. He got beat, but he did not excuse himself when the pressure got tight. He didn't go out and win the thing, but...

Pretty good to get, you know, his first real shots of consequence in a major. Maybe he parlays that into bigger things. So, all right, my friend, I will talk to you soon, buddy. Have a great rest of the summer.

You too, buddy. Bye-bye. All right. That's it for the podcast. Special thanks to Kobe. Special thanks to Rumpier Sports. Special thanks to the Rabbit Hole. And we will be back on this podcast next week, recapping the Open Championship at Royal Troon. If this podcast helped you at all, please feel free to leave a review on Apple Podcasts or share the show around. That helps far more than you know on weeks like these.

Thanks for hanging with me for these major championships. It's been a really fun year. Extremely proud of the work we've been able to do, and hopefully we can finish it off with a bang. So until then, best of luck with your bets this week. Enjoy the golf, and we will see you back here on this podcast feed next week. Cheers. ♪ If I ventured in the slipstream ♪

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