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Bringing on an old friend in Kenny Kim, who I've not podcasted with for a while. It's a great one. We dive pretty deep into our thoughts about Castle Pines, break down the DraftKings slate, talk some Xander, talk some Rory, talk some leverage plays down at the bottom, talk some building strategy this week, talk some GPP strategy this week. Just a good...
classic old school no frills give you a bunch of information on the DraftKings slate and the golf course so without further ado let's bring on Kenny all right Kenny Kim is here it's been a while we're just catching up before we hit record how we doing my friend
It's good, man. Always good to be on this show. I have to say there's only two shows that I listen to religiously. One is Pat and Jeff. The second one is this one. Now, you know, the information you give out, especially during that research pod, is unbelievable. The stuff you do with Steve during the majors. So I'm really glad to be on the show. I think it's the second or third time I've been on. Honored to be on. Really, really happy to be on.
be on a show that I actually listen to. I will say, I did not listen to your research show on Sunday because I didn't want to say the same stuff you said. That might be a good thing. Yeah. I wanted to see if the way I'm thinking about the course...
is in line with you because i would tend to sway your direction if if i'm mistaken well well i'm i'm excited to hear like let's get right into it we have a a pretty new golf course this week in castle pines i mean we're talking bmw on the pod uh which people will know from the title but
We haven't seen this golf course since 2006. It hosted the international, you know, we, it's not really relevant because all the guys from the international are, are in this field and it was stable for scoring anyway. And they added a bunch of yardage to the golf course, but any big overhanging thoughts on, on castle pines? Have you read about the golf course a little bit and watch some videos on it? What are kind of your preliminary thoughts?
So I think off the tee play is going to be super important. I think there's going to be a couple of ways. And this is just based on me. Once again, I didn't read, I didn't listen to your stuff. So if I'm mistaken, you know, don't be afraid to show me the right way, but just looking at the course and the way it plays, I think off the tee play is going to be important. I think you either need to be supremely accurate or you've got to be able to hit the ball a long ways.
I think you could be a shorter hitter like Brian Harmon did at the Open Championship where he constantly used driver more than anyone else because he was comfortable with it, because he could hit it down the middle of the fairway more often than not. I think that would be helpful. And I think if you can hit it pounded a ways away, there are some hazards around the 315, 330, around that marker that some of these guys with the outsuit is going to be able to hit over.
And I think the guys I want to avoid are the ones who are with middling distance and not too accurate. Those are the ones I want to avoid. I either want the guys to be super long or super accurate. That's basically the way I'd like it. And if they're long, I'd like their 150 to be pretty good. Good iron play is also going to be important here.
And, you know, I think avoid the big number. I think similar to what we saw at like 3M, Twin Cities and stuff like that. You're going to be, you're going to see some places where, you know, you can get a triple. You know, there's going to be some train wrecks with the stuff that they have around there. But if you're playing well, I think you could score low, especially if it's going to be playing as soft as maybe we think it is with the rain that's in the forecast coming up.
So basically, you know, ball striking off the tee, basically your typical stuff when it comes down to it. How worried are you about like the caddies and stuff like that? I feel like they're going to have a way more to do this week, right? I mean, like you don't want like a stupid caddy. You don't want like DJ's brother out there like doing the yardage and shit like that, right? I mean, are you looking at caddies at all? As much as one can, you know, I'm heavily data baked. So I struggle when like I don't know how to put
a caddy metric into my model. But I, I, first of all, I agree with everything you said. I have a couple of things I would add and piggyback off of, but first I'll dive into the caddy point. I talked about this on the Sunday podcast, so I I'll try not to repeat myself too heavily, but there was a good, are you familiar with the good, good guys on YouTube?
I know of them. I've never seen any of their stuff, which is kind of my relationship to them too. Like I know who they are, but I'm not a consumer of their content. I just kind of, I missed the whole YouTube golf thing.
thing. You know, it just, I never, I never really got into it, but anyway, they posted, I got a recommendation from somebody that they posted this two and a half hour long video with Wyndham Clark playing Castle Pines. Um, I think they posted the video like a week or two ago. I think they played the golf course in July or August. The conditions might be a little bit different, but hopefully not too different because I, I based a lot of my breakdown on that golf course. I'll check in with some folks on the grounds tomorrow, uh,
that are there just to confirm what I was thinking. But one of the big takeaways I had was the calculations that players have to make with the altitude
was tripping some guys up, right? And Wyndham Clark included. Like, all the good, good guys are really good players, like scratch golfers to plus handicap. Not at the PGA Tour level, but like, they hit the ball as far as PGA Tour players, at least some of the lower-rung PGA Tour players. And obviously, Wyndham is one of the longest drivers on the PGA Tour. So it's kind of like studying the clubs that they were hitting off the tee and the approach shots that they were having in. And
the yardages are just a total crapshoot because these guys are fricking on 550 yard par fours have driver pitching wedge in. Right. So I don't think that this is going to play as long as remotely, as long as a scorecard suggests. I think it's like an average length for us. Totally agree. Average length for par 72, like the equivalent to like 7,200, 7,300 yards. 72, 73. The other thing about altitude and, and,
Like the lack of air density, you're going to get some more roll out there too. There's some dramatically downhill tee shots where the ball just stays in the air for a while. But to go back to your caddy point, you know, there were a couple of shots where even Wyndham and particularly the good, good guys would hit like a good golf shot and
And they'd come up 15 yards short and they'd be like, Oh, what the fuck's going on there? Like I hit a really good shot. I didn't, I thought that was going to be a nine hour. And it's like, no, you got to hit a pitching wedge. A hundred year pitching wedge is going to go 180 yards. Yeah. So I don't know how to, I don't know how to quantify that. Maybe the easiest way would be the bump up stroke scan around the green.
Yeah. And also I do think that like, just off the top of my head, there are a couple of caddies anecdotally. And then, and this probably isn't going to help you because the caddies that I'm about to mention are players that we would love at this golf course anyway, but like,
Austin is super fricking underrated. Uh, Austin Kaiser, Xander's caddy, like that dude goes out to these golf courses and maps these fricking things out for hours. So you're not interested in Xander this week? No, I am interested. I'm saying, I'm saying Austin, I'm saying Austin is dialed on
on this stuff. Like I crossed Austin and you see it, right? Like when's the last time, when's the last time you've really seen Xander make a course management error? Yeah, you're right. I mean, when does he come up 25 yards short when it's not a missing Xander or even just make a bad decision? Like when's the last time that you've been watching golf and you've been like kind of the way that we feel about Rory where we're like, dude, why are you doing that, man? Yeah. I think that has a lot to do with the caddy, right?
right exactly exactly i mean either either the guy's not putting his foot forward be like yo you sure you know what i'm saying like like i don't i don't think harry's telling roy you sure buddy he's like you're just giving him the club you know what i'm saying basically no no so i i'm with you entirely and on the golf course too like i think a lot of people are going to
look at the scorecard yardage and say that this is bombs away, a bomb away with reckless. And it certainly helps, but, but that was not my experience breaking down the golf course. I got, I think there's a, the rough is going to be pretty thick. And I mean, it's still pretty tree-lined. Like you hit a wayward drive. You're going to be punching out from under the trees. Water comes into play on 10 different holes. Like to me,
As you said, this is far more of a total driving golf course than it is just a pure power golf course. And I also do think that because it's not going to play remotely as long as people think, like I mapped out the golf course and I had like guys are hitting wedges on like up to seven holes. Um, so I mapped it out. Tell me if this tracks for you. And to me,
It reminded me, and a lot of this is because of the architecture of Jack Nicklaus, but it reminded me a lot. And I'll ask you what players come to mind when I give you this or what skill set comes to mind when I give you this.
It reminds me a lot of Valhalla with Augusta's land, right? So like Valhalla with Augusta's terrain and hilliness. Like if you put Valhalla on an awesome piece of property with a shit ton of elevation changes and hills, you would get Castle Pines.
I mean, Xander? My head was going too, man. That's the easiest one. He's one of my cash game cornerstones. He's in DFS. He's one of my favorite plays. I think you have to play one of the top two, Scheffler or Xander, at this point, if you're playing DFS. You have to pick one.
Right. And, and, and, and I, I prefer Xander over this week. I prefer, I know I just did a show with Byron. He prefers Scotty. You think Scotty has it. And I can understand that just because of, you know, when it comes to length and accuracy and stuff like that, he has it all. Uh, but I, I think it personally Xander is more course proof than Scotty. Um, because of, because of his floor with the putter. And I do think there's a golf course where you're going to need to make some pots. Like I, I,
have you thought about winning score a little bit at all it just depends like if it plays from a fast i could see 15 or under 15 or higher under if it's firm if it's fast but i don't think it's going to be that way i think it's going to play sort of soft uh because of the rain they're going to get and stuff like that so i'm thinking 15 to 20 under i'm with you yeah i agree with you i know the one thing i do want to ask you about though is reading about the course i know they want to
hold majors at this event, right? Yeah, they do. Like, do you think that they're going to put the course in a way? I mean, do they have any control? The course? Do they have any control of the setup? Yeah, they do. They do. Not only do they, but the superintendent, his name's like Jack,
or something. I could pull it up and find his actual name. I don't want to butcher the name, but he came from Muirfield Village, another Jack Nicklaus course. So the guy that's very much in charge of course setup and course maintenance, and obviously the PGA Tour has some say in this too, but the superintendent still plays a massive role on how thick the rough is and how fast the greens roll. He came from Muirfield Village. So he has experience setting up
what is generally the hardest golf tournament on the PGA tour that's not a major.
Okay. Mirafield village is one every year, like eight under. I would think that, you know, of course that wants to hold majors. They can't show up and have a giggle hit and giggle fest and have a 24 under par and be, be, you know, people will laugh. They're like, Oh, we want a major. You're like, dude shot 26 under par. The one you're event. No, we're not having a major there. Right. Do you think that's going to affect the setup? I think it can. I do too. Can I give you the weird counter argument? Because whenever that I have,
golf course. I have the same way to think too. Well, I'll tell you because this is a market that's been incredibly successful for me. I think I've hit this correctly at one major. I didn't bet it, but two of the, you know, two of the three majors, I hit it really well with, um, true and Valhalla, but the winning score prop is
is a very exploitable market for me because I generally am really good at figuring out these courses and I talk to people that are on the ground, so it helps too. The winning score prop this week, Kenny, and I'm going to give you to score under par because I think that's easier to talk about, minus 23.5%.
Which is like, that's so high that it's like, what do they know? They must know something. That's what I'm saying. It's like, okay, like if it was like minus 20, I'd be like, okay, I see value on the under. Like, I think it's going to be minus 18. But the fact that it's so high. Yeah, it's worrisome. Right? Yeah. Yeah. And that could get that like.
I still slam the under. I still bet the under. That number moves sometimes throughout the week, so I haven't checked in a couple hours. We could wake up tomorrow morning and minus 23.5 could be minus 21.5 to minus 19.5. The players haven't even gotten to the golf course yet.
The pro-am is Wednesday. They're playing practice rounds tomorrow, so we're recording this Monday night. I'll have a much better sense of it once I talk to some folks in Caddy's tomorrow. But minus 23.5, I don't see that at all, man. This golf course is harder than Valhalla on paper. And Valhalla was minus 18, minus 19. This is just...
Valhalla with massive elevation changes. It's harder than Valhalla, and Valhalla was a major championship. I mean, here's the thing. One thing that usually happens when you get a new course on tour, for the most part, I would say the one...
tournament that where we see new courses where it's not always like this is actually the BMW. But usually when you see new courses on tour, they play on the easier end because the players have a lot of set, right? Um, you know, if they play a course and it's too difficult, they're like, I don't want to play this thing anymore. Right. And I'm,
I feel like personally, when a new course comes into town, they set it up easier for the players. That's just how I feel about it. Now, for this event, I'm not sure. Because again, like they said, they've been talking about they want this to hold a major, maybe a PGA Championship at some point in time. You can't go out there and shoot
25 under and close to major. So they have to find that balance. I think when it comes down to where it's not like insanely difficult where the guys never want to come back and it's not too easy where it's never going to be a major, you sort of have to find that in between. And I think that 15 or 20 ranges is perfect. They set it up the right way. Yeah. Because you think about like they had a BMW championship at aeronautic.
Uh, in 2016 or 17, that was like one, he can want it 20 under. Okay. So I think maybe, and then aeronomic got rewarded a PGA. So, uh,
I think they like the BMW doesn't have typically a problem getting to 20 under. I just kind of had it capped at like, I think a guy could go out and shoot 20 under maybe, but like, I just like, I map out these golf courses every week. Like this golf course is just too hard in my opinion to be like, you compare it to caves Valley, which is like the ultimate BMW birdie fest, the easiest golf course ever been to, uh,
Keys Valley was shorter, even with the altitude, even if you take out the altitude, like soaking wet. And I'm looking at the weather, maybe wet, but not anything like that, anything like that. And didn't even remotely have the terrain and the added variable of rain.
of adding calculation to it that this course does. So like, I'm still with you. Like I'm pretty comfortable in that 18 under number would be my prediction on Monday night. And I, I suppose if I get new information from folks that are there tomorrow morning, I'll, I'll adjust. But yeah, if anyone's listening to this pod right now, like by my numbers, 23 under feels steep.
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Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Yeah, it does. I mean, just thinking about it, though, no wind. I don't really see that much wind in the forecast. So, I mean, the conditions should be ripe for scoring. It's just we just don't know what to expect from the course. Yeah. I found with like Vegas is really sharp on a lot of golf stuff, but.
They are, I have found they're not like the only reason why I have a career is because I've been able to beat Vegas on course breakdown stuff. Like,
They may just have gotten this wrong. It's not necessarily always because no player's been to the course. So I, a lot of the time, am going to be able to get better info on the golf course than the Vegas oddsmakers can based on speaking to caddies and speaking to people there. So it may just be a bad number that we murder, just like we did at Valhalla. I think Valhalla was like
minus 14.5 that we freaking slammed. So who knows? We'll see. I also could wake up tomorrow morning and hear that it's a freaking joke and change my opinion too. But anyway, you mentioned Xander. I think we're both kind of on the same page that we prefer Xander to Scotty this week. And this is actually the first week in a couple that
Xander was higher in my model than Scotty this week, mainly because he's so much better of a backgrass putter. And he actually has higher ball speed than Scotty too, and hits the ball a little bit longer than Scotty now. But I kind of am at the same thought process with you where I think it's still very close between them. But if you give me a $1,200 discount on Xander, I'm taking that seven days a week.
He definitely, like I said, I'm rostering on these. One of my cash game cornerstones. I'm going to start all my cash lineups with him. I only use one for a double ups and stuff like that. And I usually play about half my bankroll on that type of stuff when it comes to DFS. And he's going to, it's going to be one lineup and he's going to be in it.
So second man in, so talk me through, like, talk me through that early 10 K and nine K range. Like there are a lot of ways if you're ham, if you're happy on Xander at top, up top, which I think I may be as well. There are a lot of ways that you can play this, right? Like you could, your second man then could be in the eight K range, you know, or, you know, you, you could make a lineup work with Xander and Hoffman. Right. So I have three guys to my other two guys in my cash lineup are over nine K.
I'm actually going Billy Horschel again, who's had success in this area with Cherry Hills. Yeah. He's had, he's, you know, again, a lot of the times when you come to this type time of year, you just ride the hot hand.
A lot of the time guys just get hot and stay hot during this time of year. We've seen it with Billy Horschel, with Glover, with Keegan, with Ryan Moore, with Chris Kirk, right? Guys like that. Honestly, even with Hovland last year. Yeah, Hovland last year. You can't let, right? You can't let too. A couple of years back, people get hot at the right time. And Billy Horschel, what, three top tens in his last five events? Yeah.
He's had success at Elevation, has won this event in Colorado before in the past. I'll go ahead and go him second. And then I like Wyndham Clark. I'll take the home field course narrative with Wendy C. Now, the issue about that is it can go both ways. We've seen it with EVR at the 3M. We've seen it with Charlie Hoffman in Vegas, where they just can't get the job done on their
Ryan Palmer and colonial. Yeah. Like, you know, they have too much to do. They have to get tickets. They have to get everyone in blah, blah, blah. And so it sort of fucks up the game, but there's also, you know, Webb Simpson at the Wyndham. There's also John wrong at, at, in Scottsdale, you know, basically their home courses when they were playing there and they did well, they can go both ways. So I'm hoping when them goes in the, in, in the ROM, Webb Simpson type of,
type of narrative when it comes down to the course and he knows the course so well. He plays the course a bunch. He's used to the altitude. Hopefully he can figure out the distances better than he did in that good, good video. So I'm going to go with those two guys because, again, the form has been excellent. I know people have been giving Wyndham a real hard time here recently with the Olympics, but four top tens in his last five events. It's not like the guy slouched. Right?
Right? No. It's not like the guy's been slouched. No. So those are the two guys that I like in cash. Now for GPPs in this range,
I like Fleetwood. Interesting. I assume. And you're looking at those Memphis ball striking numbers. They're so good. Yeah. So good. And he's been playing again. Another guy who's been playing exceptional golf. And the putter was just one of the worst weeks with this putter. He's had in recent memory last week. He puts average. He's in the top 10. Right. Last week. And again, super accurate off the tee is going to hit.
a shit ton of fairways and you can go both ways when it comes to this either fairways or long and he's going to hit a bunch of fairways out there I think in the last three four months he's like been one of the most accurate guys off the team in this field so I like him so again you know you
diverging games, different types of games, but I think they could both work in this situation. You know, I like him. I mean, Finau's a play that I'm looking at, of course, but he's going to be super popular. I'm looking for the unpopular GPP play. Yeah. I think that's going to be Fleetwood.
So I have takes on all those guys, but just real quick, as we make our way down, seems like you're kind of skipping the Rory Hideki, Hovland, Morikawa, Ludwig can't lay range. I can't in cash because I already have. Yeah, it's going to be tough. It's a listen. Listen,
I wish there were more podcasts that were just like, yeah, listen, like I don't like everybody. I'm not playing them all. You can't play them all. My pool is not going to have every single player. No. So, you know, obviously with these guys, there's fricking 15 guys above nine K this week. And I'm probably at the end of the day, going to play four of them.
I'm probably going to play 6-7 is the way I usually go. Now, I was talking to Byron. Usually, when you're doing lineup constructions and stuff like that, you tend to go heavy on these top guys. What he was thinking of doing is finally making a stance in the 7-8K range.
going with the high-owned guy there, and then sort of delving out this top range of 20% and 30% each. I agree with that. I'll tell you why I agree with that, because... You're going to get a bunch of these guys in the same lineup, first off. Right, and it's also not that they made a mistake with the pricing this week, but the way that they did it is they put so many guys above 9K that there's actually going to be...
like decent ownership in the 9k plus range like there's going to be guys in the 9k range that are going to be pretty low owned even in a 50 man field but they didn't really they didn't you know there's just because they're 50 guys in the field a lot of ownership is going to congregate around the popular guys in the sixes and sevens so like for example you know like
If you love Will Zalatouris this week, just using an example of a guy that's going to be popular in the low sixes, and you also love, I don't know, let's say Morikawa this week, a guy in the tens that I don't think is going to be super popular this week because he let a lot of people down last week, including myself. If you're playing like 100, 150 lineups,
And Zalatouris has this inflated, crazy 20%, 30% ownership because there's just not that many options versus Morikawa, who, because there are so many good options at the top, sneaks in at around 10% to 12%.
Well, you know, to get overweight on Zalatoris, you're going to have to play a lot more Zalatoris and where you could spread it out with some of the low on guys at the top, if that makes sense. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's I thought that made a lot of sense. I mean, I literally just finished a pod with them, so I can't really I'm trying to think of a guy that I would do that with around here. That would be in the 7, 8, 8K range. You have a big.
opinion on yes i and it's tough i mean i love taylor penderith i really like shane lowry um i like aaron rye but i don't know if i have the balls to go 50 on those guys yeah you know that's the thing um
I might have to, if I want to do what Byron's saying, which I think makes a lot of sense. Because if you go 50%, 60% standard, you're, you're, you're cutting yourself at the arms using other guys and being, being over being, being able to have leverage. So either you go with the big boys and you have, you're super adamant about a guy and hope you're right.
um, or, you know, pick a couple of guys in the middle range, go high on them and then sort of spread your ownership around where you're still overweight, but you're not like double, triple, like you would be. Um, and you could still be able to field six, seven guys in that nine K and up range. And a lot of the times you'll have overlapping lineups with a lot of those guys in the same, in the same lineup, you know? And so you can have a chance with
three 9K guys or something like that in your lineup and be able to go that even a 10K and two 9Ks, which I did. I had an 11K and two 9Ks in my cash line. And I got to go down to Grazer Man at 6,300 just to fill it out. But I feel comfortable with the other two that I have. Yeah. And it's actually...
It's, it's a generally uncomfortable thing to do for me because the way that I like to kind of do it like a pyramid essentially. So like I generally pay, you know, for 20 to 50 lineups, I keep my pull out like 16 to 20 guys. And like, you know, my four guys above nine K, uh, they'll be in between 40 to 70% of my lineup. So I'm significantly overweight. And then my guys in the eights and the sevens will be in, you know,
25 to maybe 40, 35% of my lineups. And then I'll play like of that 18 man pool, 10 of those guys will be below 7.5 K where I'm just throwing a bunch of darts on like cheap, low owned guys. That's usually how I do it. Right. I'm overweight on every single one of them. And this is kind of almost like the inverse of that.
But and kind of our strategy makes more sense because in theory, the guys that you're going to feel more confident in, there's a reason why they're high priced. Right. So it's like Xander's range of outcomes this week. You're always going to feel better about compared to I don't know who's the guy in the sevens that I really like. Bobby Mac. I really like Bobby Mac this week.
But do I also acknowledge that Bobby Mac can freaking finish DFL in this field? Like Bobby Max missed 10 cuts this year. Right. So it's like you just you play 50 percent Bobby Mac and you get bad Bobby Mac. And it's like you're fucked. And it wasn't. Don't get me wrong. It could happen. Like I played Rory last week.
And, you know, you get back, you know, you get a bad, you get a bad week for, from anyone, but it, you know, the range of outcomes still feel, you feel a lot better with, uh, playing some of the higher guys. So anyway, um,
Sorry. No, you're good, buddy. What were you grabbing there? Some Astra. I need a cigarette. I'm trying to quit. It's been too hard. How's that going for you, man? Because I'm in the same boat. I don't smoke cigs, but I do the Zen and the vape. Okay. So I almost quit. But when I was quitting, cigarettes was when I was the heaviest I've ever been in my life. Like almost 270.
Well, also, you know, when you quit tobacco, it's just going to make you want to eat more. Exactly. And I was down like one or two cigarettes a day. And my doctor was like, yo, you got to lose the weight. And I was like, so I made a decision. It was too hard to quit smoking and lose weight. That makes complete sense to me. Yeah. So I decided to lose weight first. And so now I'm down to like 240 now. I've lost like 30 pounds from then. But I've also...
I was down like one or two a day and now I'm back at a half a pack. Yeah. So, so that's the problem that I'm having. But I think once I reach like 220 or something like that, I've been, I'd be doing it for so long and I'd be better at it. You know, watching my weight, watching what I eat. I've been a lot better at that here recently that then maybe I can,
Get rid of this next because I'm embarrassed to still be a smoker. Me too. Like when I, when I walk outside and I'm smoking a cigarette, I like cuff the cigarette. Yeah. So people don't know that I'm like blatantly smoking. Of course you'll smell it and they might see the smoke come out, but I like cuff cigarettes and like,
It's embarrassing to be a smoker nowadays. I agree. Even vaping. Like, I don't think vaping is what that any better. I think there's enough science now that people are like, yeah, vaping is kind of vaping is kind of just as bad for you. And I'm still young enough where I have a shit ton of friends who vape. But there's also a lot of people that are like, I'm about to turn 30 in November. And I'm like, all right, I'm going to cut that out when I turn 30. And I'm like, dangerously close to 30. And I don't feel anywhere near vaping.
Well, I've had a couple like half-ass. I've had a couple half-ass fail. Dude, I've had a couple half-ass attempts where I'm like, oh, I can, I could say, you know, go on a trip for a weekend and leave the vape at home and you don't need it. That's fucking hard, man. It's, it's sneak, it sneaks up on you. Yeah. I mean, I've been smoking since I was cigarettes since I was 13. So it's 30 years. I need to stop. I'm 40. I turned 44 this year. Oh, actually like next week.
I turned 44. Have you tried the nicotine patches or anything like that? Yeah. Well, I mean, I've tried. So when I, I know Pat had a anti-smoking thing as a sponsor. Yeah. Lucy, I think it was, they were called Lucy's. And he sent me and that's how I got down to like,
to a day uh one day it worked um it's like gum and then it's like pouches and then it's like uh some other stuff uh like multiple different like oral fixation things because i mean that's a big thing about smoking right i mean yeah uh that fixation of just constantly uh doing
And routine, right? Like first thing after meals, after meals, when your first coffee. And that's why the vape is fucking even more deadly because what happens to you with the vape is it's like you're sitting in, you know, you're sitting in your room working on your computer and,
And it's not the effort of going, you know, smoking a full cigarette. You just kind of sneakily hit it and hit it. I'm like, I fucking, you know, now I have to take a piss in the middle of the fucking night. And the first thing that I subconsciously do when I take a piss is reach over my bed for my vape while I take the piss.
I got a buddy who does that also. He actually just told me how to say the exact story when he wakes up. I don't have to do that when I wake up. But I mean, my favorite cigarette's the one where I'm
on the phone taking my first shit of the day. I smoke in my house. I own my house. I'll never sell this home because of the interest rate I got. So, so, so there's, I'm going to be here for life. So it's my house. I will smoke it. I only smoke it in the basement though. So, but yeah, I got to stop. Yeah.
I know I have to stop. It's embarrassing. Yeah. Well, the way things good. I mean, it says, you know, one thing at a time, man, you know, you try and you try and throw too many variables into the mix here and it's just going to, it's going to screw up everything.
Yeah. No, I mean, I got to quit both, but the weight was, I was a shock when I stepped on the scale and I was 268 pounds. I was like, what the fuck? So I had to, I had to change a little bit of that. Yeah. Well, speaking of weight, I actually worry about how like Shane Lowry is going to do it. I know. I've been worried about that too. I hear the walk is horrible. Yeah. Well, they were, they were out of breath. That was another one of my takeaways on the video.
They were huffing and puffing. The good guys in Wyndham Clark, they're all in really good shape. Those guys were huffing and puffing up to all the tee boxes. I think that's an altitude thing too because I've had that. I went to Colorado a couple of years ago and I remember I got really nasally and nosebleeds and out of breath. I think it fucks a little bit with your...
very far from like doing a science corner here. Um, but there's, I, there's definitely something with your breathing and respiratory system that altitude has a shortness of breath. You don't get as much air in. Right. I mean, that's the thing, right? Yeah. So, okay. So anyway, um,
Anyone else in the top range that you want to talk about before we get a little bit farther down? Put your balls on the table. Do you have a big fade this week? A big fade above 9.5 that you're like, no chance. I mean, the first one that comes to mind is Rory, but that might be too easy, right? Let me ask you this. Pick out the cash game part of your brain for a second.
As a GPP player, you walk over and you have
35% Xander and 35% shuffle. And Rory sitting there at like 12%. Yeah. Where's your mind go? Because I mean, I think like that also, but I mean, you have to, I thought like that last week and it fricking backfired on me. Rory was, I think the gap is going to be either even greater this week, but last week in my GPP build, uh,
I played a shit ton of Rory at 14% and faded Xander and Scotty and walking away from that week. I was like, Oh, the gap between these guys is like way bigger than the pricing was. Well, I mean, Scotty and Xander, I think are their own people. I don't even think you can like, you can't compare. Well, but Rory was still even kind of in that, like he's priced within, you know,
Rory's $300 cheaper than Xander this week. That's not what it should be. No, no. Xander should be closer, though, to 12, I think. I think if they had like 12-1 and 12,000 for them, and then the rest would be the same, then maybe. But it would be so difficult to make lineups that way with one of those two. I think everyone's going to lean towards Xander, too. What do you think Scottie's ownership would be?
I think Scotty will be... I think Scotty will be... I think Xander actually has a chance to be higher on than Scotty this week because... I think so too. He's too cheap in terms of like the difference between Scotty and Xander. Scotty should still absolutely be higher priced than Xander, but the difference should be $500 at most in my opinion personally on this golf course. There are certain golf courses where I think Scotty actually does have a bigger advantage over Xander. Like, you know...
Paris, for example, some of these like super high Miss Fairway courses. This isn't one of them. This is one where I think it's a little bit more neutralized. I think if I had to guess right now, I haven't looked at any ownership or recording this on Monday night. I'm going to say Xander 38, Scotty 33. I would not shock me at all. And then Rory would be like nine.
nine right nine to eleven i mean who's gearing up who's gearing up to play rory after i mean there are there are bad weeks and i never overreacted but last week was just different right different it was different right it felt like like i don't even know like how do you play that poorly well the theory that i've had on it too is
We love to psychoanalyze Rory, right? We love to be like, you know, this is what's going through Rory's head at major championships. This is what his relationship with his caddy looks like, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, you know, whatever. The thing that is different with Rory, in my opinion, that
The reason for this, I don't freaking know. Whether it is mechanical, whether it is a coincidence, or whether it is completely mental, or whether it is he's just going through a bad stretch right now. To be honest with you, it's probably a combination of all five of those things. But since Rory lost the US Open by missing...
Uh, two short putts on the final four holes. He's been a really bad putter. Like he has not been field average once. So if you want to say that's just a coincidence, sure. Maybe it is. If you want to say that since he missed two short putts to lose the U S open, uh,
He's kind of in his head about his putter, which is like a very normal and natural thing for golfers to do when you miss really highly important short putts. Whatever it is, I don't know the direct answer. Rory is this is the worst putting stretch that we've seen out of Rory in quite some time years. Well, mentally, he seems sort of lost, right? I mean, like to say what he said after the Open Championship was just dumb.
I mean, I was Roy doesn't say stupid shit like that too often. He's sort of more thoughtful in his words, sometimes, in my opinion, back in the day, fake, but manufactured, right, or something like that.
But, like, I know lately he's sort of come out of his shell a little bit ever since he's left the board and stuff like that. And I've sort of come around and liked him a little bit more, but it seems like he's being more true to himself. But what he said there is saying, you know, he just gave up. I mean, like, who says that? Yeah, not only that. Maybe you did do it. Yeah. Why would you say that out loud? Like, it seems like... Like, it doesn't seem like he's...
as sharp. I don't know. Like something is off. Right. Because I mean, like, and again, again, we're psychoanalyzing more because we'd love to do it. But that was like really a moment where I was like, what's wrong with him? Because that is not something that I would expect for him to say or make a faux pas that large. And the other weird, I agree completely. And the other weird thing about it is, is that
historically hasn't really been one to like mail in PGA tour events. Like he hasn't had that relationship to the PGA tour that like maybe a Brooks Koepka has in the past where it's like, Oh, it's very clear that like Brooks doesn't give a shit about this. Yeah. Rory's,
Rory hasn't, he's definitely had bad. That's why he's the king of backdoor. Right. Right. Exactly. Yeah. The king of backdoors. Right. Exactly. And Kenny, particularly the fricking FedEx cup playoffs. Like that's the other thing that was concerning. Baby. That's the other, that's the other thing that was concerning about it is like, okay, you know, I get it in some, you know, if Rory's playing the Honda classic and you want to tell me the difference between BFL and T27, um,
He doesn't give a shit about like this is the one tournament where like the difference between T-68 and T-27 like actually makes a huge difference, like thousands of dollars, tens and tens of thousands of dollars. And, you know, hundreds of FedEx Cup points to to position yourself to win a fuck ton of money.
I'm with you. It's, it's a, it's a, it's a stay away for me. Right. It is for me too. Even I was, I was like you last week. I was like, okay, he's going to be like 12%. Let me go in and put 30 on him. Right. I put, so I, so I have personal ownership 30% so I could be double the field. And I was thinking the same way you thought. And,
even if I'm triple the field quadruple the field with him this week, I don't, I don't think I could do it. And of course, but the thing is, you know, as if you're a true GPP, you know, whatever type of mind, you know, when you're not really a golfer, a golf fan, you're just playing DFS. Right. And you're playing it in a game theory perspective. I mean, he seems like he should be the play, which I will not touch, but. And, and Kenny, like I,
I do play DFS that way. Like I am a very contrarian player that heavily favors game theory. The reason why I just don't think it's worth the risk is I think there's going to be other great players that are going to be low owned also. Like, yeah, I really like Ludwig this week. I don't think Ludwig is going to be super high on. I was going to be my next pick for a guy where to worry about.
Well, can I give you, all right, let me, let's start, let's start with you then. What's, what worries you about Ludwig? Hit in the wall. Recent form. So much golf played in a year, more than he's ever played. You know, he went from college golf to basically the tour last year. Right. I mean, in college, you're not playing.
you know, these many events. This is his first year where he's played 20 plus events, right? Throughout the whole season. My worry is sort of a rookie wall that we're seeing at the end of the year. Now, he had that good finish in the Scottish quarter,
But, I mean, you know, three of his last four events haven't been great. Now, the thing is, this is a total narrative. Because, like I said, you can't play all these guys. You have to pick a reason why you're not going to play someone, right? I mean, sometimes it is just total narrative in your mind about him. That's what it is with Ludwig. Because, you know, honestly, the game should suit him. I mean, if he's long and straight, like he's always been...
long and straight throws career, he's going to have a tremendous advantage off the tee here. But that is my worry of him. And so you're going to have to come, you're going to have to figure out why you don't like guys and why you do, and you're going to have to pick and choose. And sometimes you're going to come up with reasons that could be silly after the week is over. I mean, no, no. And I don't think that reason is silly. I at all, because I think that what you're saying with blood big is, um,
Both valid and certainly in the range of outcomes. There's a reason why his betting number is higher than it has been. I bet him at 22 to 1 this week. People were betting him at 16 to 1 to win majors. I view it as a bit of a buy low, but
you know, also course vet. I mean, you touched on the course vet. I've always felt that Ludwig was going to win on this type of golf course. I haven't bet Ludwig a ton. When I first saw the course three weeks ago, when I texted you, yeah, he was my first, he was the first person that popped up. Yup. And, and, uh,
The other theory that I have with Ludwig that I like about him is that I kind of like Ludwig on golf courses that nobody has seen before. Because I think that at a lot of these PGA Tour courses, he's just immediately behind the eight ball because he's the only freaking great player that hasn't played any of them before. Yeah.
And so this actually neutralizes any experience factor and makes it far more about talent than experience. And I think on talent, I I'm still taking Ludwig over most guys in the field. So I agree with you. The, the larger point that I was making is I think Ludwig will be 15 max. And like, if you're telling me, would I rather play a 10% Rory or a 14% Ludwig or,
I just, I'll take the Wadvig. I'll take, I'll take the Wadvig. I would too in that situation, no doubt. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. I'll take the Wadvig shares. So, all right. Um, let's go further down. Give me some, give me some guys in the, you know, anyone you want to mention in the eights and into the sevens and we'll, we'll finish up with some, some dumpster diving.
I like Aaron Ryan again, man. I mean, like when you hit like 85% of greens and fairways, it doesn't matter what the course is like. I mean, like if you're literally hitting 85% of your greens and fairways for like two weeks straight, three weeks straight,
I mean, the guy has been just a ball-striking machine. Last week, he was unbelievable once again. He just couldn't make a putt. You know, he knows what it feels like to make a putt and win. Now, again, people get hot at this time of year. He is, of course, you know, supremely accurate off the tee. He'll be hitting his driver 330.
325 consistently, you know, probably more down the middle than the other guys out there in the field. So I like Aaron Ryan a lot in the AK range. What do you take? I feel like you don't like him this week. I don't mind him. I think that his advantage is a little bit greater at like Wyndham or even Memphis last week that were these like
very pure accuracy over distance short to middle iron play tests. And I still think accuracy is, is going to be quite important here. Um,
But I do think that like the technical colonial Harbor town, Wyndham, I think those courses, I think benefit him a little bit more than this. I think they do also. Yeah. It doesn't mean, but the thing I will say is, you know, like I said, we've seen golfers of this ilk succeed this time of year out of nowhere. And he is on one of those runs.
Right. It's kind of like the belly of a couple of years ago. Like it has it has that same sort of energy of like a guy who's clearly a good player. And we know he's been a good player. We've been playing Aaron Rye all year. But then you get those you get that first win and it's like a little bit of a floodgate situation for at least a month.
Right. Yeah. So it's not like he's a 20 year old guy going out partying after his win. The guy's going out there grinding again, focusing again. I mean, this is, you could tell by the level, the way he grew up, you know, I mean, this is, it was never easy for him. So I would not expect him to take it easy even after one win. And the thing about this is this course and this event, there's so many unknowns that I would like to go with what is known. And what is known is the guy's been playing exceptional golf.
hitting a shit ton of fairways and a shit ton of greens. And he's been having top finishes out there against really good competition as well. I will go with what I know. And I like Ryan. I like the way he's playing. And I think he can replicate that on a course with so many unknowns. I'm going to go with the no. Yeah. Not to mention the fact that the AK range is just tough. Like I think a lot of guys in here over price. I think Corey Conner, Conner's at 8.9.
I thought he was going to be in the mid eights. I don't know what Cameron Young has to do at this point to get himself into the high sevens, but I think him at 8.5, zero price. I thought Akshay, I did not expect Akshay to be 8.4. I did not expect Jason Day to be 8.2. I did not expect Bazayden Hout to be 8K flat. I kind of like JT. And I know there was a little JT buzz last week and I, I didn't play him last week, but some friends of mine did and,
And he was fine, but his irons did look pretty solid. He kind of came out of the gates hot and faded as one typically does. I just think like I know JT's played well in Memphis before, but I don't think he's driving the ball well enough to like
this version of justin thomas be a mega threat in memphis with that sticky bermuda rough with how many fairways that he misses i think he'll have a little bit more room and a little bit more space off the tee historically he's played really well this time of year and it's a gpp play like what do you if i gave you jt's ownership what do you what do you think he's
Maybe 10. Yeah, I would say around there. Yeah, maybe 10. I don't even know. Do you think anyone's going to be chalk in the AK range? I don't see anything. Anyone really popping out. Usually I'm the chalk man. I mean, like I wasn't like I said, I was interested in day as well. 8200 seems sort of wild.
I really like Shane Lowry, but I'm worried about the fitness, the fitness. Again, I'm going to have to play him in one of my one and don'ts because like one of the guys I have left. Yeah, I'm really worried about that.
But yeah, like even the high 7K range, I'm not even a big fan of many of these guys. Now the funny thing is like the low 7K and the 6K, I got a lot of guys. So it's sort of weird. I bet you, Kenny, people build that way. Like I bet you, you know, some lineups start with, let's say,
Let's say, you know, I'm just going to give you what I expect to be a popular build. Let's do Xander Wyndham. Okay. Xander Wyndham gives you 7.425. So like you could even throw Xander Wyndham Finau in there.
And, you know, your last three slots are 6.7. And I think that's pretty workable. I think people will do that. I think people will feel fine. That's basically what my cast lineup looks like. Right. Very similar. Because then, listen, you throw...
Griserman in there at 6.3. You throw a Zalatorris in there at 6.8 and you've got 6.9 left. So basically I had 7.3 left in my, right. With Horschel and Clark. Right. Exactly. So, you know, I, I think that's pretty workable and yeah, I'm with you. I, they're,
I guess we have to find plays there because that's going to be the dead zone, right? There's going to be someone who comes out. Well, I like the 75. Yeah, I like Bobby Mac. I like Bobby Mac. If I could sell you on him at all. I don't know how popular he'll be. I don't think he'll be crazy popular, but the dude finished seventh in Memphis last week. He's won twice this year, one on back grass this year, murders the ball off the tee and is a sneaky great putter.
He's not like a phenomenal iron player, but he's a great long iron player. Right. So on some of those par fives, I think Bobby Mack, you know, is a golf course with four par fives. And I think on some of the par fives, you're going to be able to have like a middle iron and some of them are going to be three shot holes. Still, one of them is like 650 yards. I like Bobby Mack this week at seven point six.
Yeah. I mean, if we're going into seven K, my favorite is Pendrith down here. Again, another guy with similar, similar skill set. Yeah. Eight top 25s in his last 11 events played. I mean, that's a pretty good floor, right? And again, there's no cut here. He's pretty long off the T. His iron game has been really strong for the last two months. Um, I had someone that I like, he's probably my favorite in that seven K. What about, uh,
What do you make of Dunlop-Zalatoris? Because both those guys played really well last week. Dunlop more so than Zalatoris. Do you think... And I was surprised that they were this price compared to some of the other guys that were higher price. Like, I was...
I don't know why there is a $1,000 or a $1,400 price gap right now between Dunlop and Christian Bizet and Hout. I don't understand that at all.
They're going to be, here's the thing. Like usually when it comes down to the 6k range, like I'm fading the highest zone, this is like sort of automatic, right? That's just sort of like something you do as a GBP player, right? You see that 6k guy, you see his highest zone. You're like, I'm not playing him. Yeah. Can you, can you do that with these two?
In a 50 man field? Because it's not like you have, it's not like you have like 90 other options like you normally would. No. Right? You have like 15 and those options don't really sound great. Not yet. They don't sound great. And like a lot of these guys I played last week and still have a pretty bad taste. Like,
I was big on Siwoo Kim last week. No top fives this year. Yeah, that did not work out well for me one bit. I still may end up going back to Siwoo for a lack of better options, but I don't even like Siwoo on this golf course as much as I liked him on the last golf course. Hoagie, I guess Eric Cole charged a little bit on Sunday. Homa feels not playable at the moment. I don't know what's wrong with him. I played Brian Harmon last week.
And Keegan Bradley. I didn't play Straka, but look at the three guys ahead of them. Harmon, Straka, Keegan Bradley. Not a single one of those guys could crack the top 50 last week. So if you think about it, Dunlap and Zalatoris, I got to imagine both are 15% at least. At least. At least.
Because some the ownership's going there somewhat like it's got to be Dunlap and Zalator's. And then I think at the bottom, you like Gracerman a little bit more than I do. I may like Eckrod a little bit more than you do, but I think I like to. OK, so I think so. I think Eckrod and Gracerman are going to get a fair amount of the love down there as well.
So, I mean, do you do game theory? Because this is a place for game theory in the 6K range where it's not like the elite guys, right? I mean, this is the place, right? And who do you do it with? I think Hadwin is playable. Chris Kirk had a good showing last week for a while. Before a while. I played him last week and he...
He tore my heart out over the weekend. It was just a, he was horrendous over the weekend. Now I had, when I always, I always play had when kind of randomly sometimes, because I do think he has a lot of top five, like had one finished third at the Memorial this year. Now I think the Memorial is going to be harder than this golf course, but listen, it's the same. It's the same architect.
It's the same superintendent. It's the same aesthetics. There's been a lot of Muirfield Village in Castle Pines. Hadwin finished third there this year. I think you can go there as a pivot to some of the chalk and the sexes. Yeah, I mean, it's tough sledding. I mean, yeah, that makes sense. I mean, maybe Pavon. I don't know, man. Cameron Davis is a flop lag after being popular last week. Yeah.
Yeah, it's tough. All right, Kenny, one name. Who's your winner? Xander. Yeah. Did you bet Xander? No. I have one spot open, and I might be able to cash out. I think my card right now is Hovland, Clark, and Orson. Yeah. All right. I don't know if having those three might be better than just having Xander. I don't know. I do placements, too. Yeah, I do placements, too, and I do some matchups, too. I have...
I have Ludwig can't lay fee now. And the other direction I would have gone is I, I was very close to Hovland and there was like 24 hours and I missed the 24. So, you know, now it's down to 18. So Hovland just ended up being the last man out. But if I, it was always going to be three out of the four of Hovland, female Ludwig can't lay or, uh,
Xander single bullet. Yeah. If I can get like a boost on Xander and get them like the 10 to one or something, even eight or nine to one. Yeah. Yeah. And then I'd have to drop a couple of my other guys, cash them out.
Yeah. Because I like to stay within my budget. So we'll see. We'll see. Well, it's not Wednesday yet. So the final call is on it. We got some time. Anything you got to plug this week? What should people check out? What should the listeners check it out? They want some more Kenny Kim in their life. You can find me on X at Kendo VT. You can find me, of course, on Mayo Media Network, on the Fantasy Golf Generates podcast. It's on iTunes, all that good stuff. You can find my stuff on gupscorner.com. Also, I'm wearing the Kickback Golf T-shirt.
Gear here, they've become one of the sponsors of the podcast. So go to kickbackgolf.com, use promo code FGD15. They got these cool golf player jerseys.
Right. They're pretty cool. Like they got like I got a Sungjae basketball jersey with a Korea on the front of the flag and on the back. It has his name on it. You know, they got like Tiger Woods, Stanford Cardinal baseball jersey, DJ's Coastal Carolina basketball jerseys. They got a bunch of golfers. So go check it out. Kickback golf dot com. FGD 15 is the promo code.
Awesome, Kenny. This is a blast. We'll do it again soon, my man. Thanks for joining me. Yeah, man. Always a blast. Appreciate it, brother. All right. That's it for the podcast. Special thanks to Kenny. Special thanks to Betzbert. Special thanks to Rumpier Sports. And we will be back on this podcast feed next week. I'm not sure if I'm going to do a Sunday podcast.
solo pod about uh east lake east lake has undergone a pretty massive restoration that i am definitely excited to dive into and talk to but it's another another week on the road for me um member guest season a big member guest next week so wish me luck in that i'll do my best to uh
to record an Eastlake Sunday preview pod. And if not, we'll be back on this podcast feed for the final event of the season on Tuesday night. Until then.
Best of luck with your BMW championship bets and picks. Enjoy the golf this weekend. Enjoy one of those last great weekends of August. I know I certainly will be, and we will see you next time. Cheers.
And the dead send the back road stop.