2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview & Anthony Kim's Return
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I have a few Anthony Kim thoughts that I wanted to touch on quickly. I wrote down a few Anthony Kim notes because the discourse on Anthony Kim, this four-day span of discourse on Anthony Kim has been pretty fascinating to me. And I was very interested in this story because –

I know a decent amount of people that have spent some time with Anthony Kim over the last decade. I was actually playing golf with one of them today. And while I did not stay up in the middle of the night to watch him play, I watched a lot of the replay of his first two rounds. I've been following him.

the discourse on Twitter closely. I'm recording this on Saturday evening. So he hasn't played his third round yet. He shot 76, 76 in the first two rounds, which I know is dead last. Honestly, not that bad. Okay. For the amount of time that he took off, just so people know during that 12 year absence from competitive golf, he spent long periods of time, not touching a club. Okay. He got back into it.

in the last, I mean, really back into it, I don't know, two, three years, but there were stretches over this past decade where golf was not remotely a facet of Anthony Kim's life. And, um,

While I think this was a no-brainer for Liv, if you're Liv, you do this. You take a chance on this guy seven days a week and twice on Sunday, even if he finishes dead last every week. I still think you do it because while I think that people are going to stop caring about this pretty quickly if it doesn't play well, even the difference in terms of

The discourse after round one and round two was massive in terms of the amount of people on Twitter that after round one were talking about this, like it was the biggest thing that has ever happened in golf. And then after round two,

They just stopped talking about it. Okay. After he shot the same score in round two, I still, right. I still think so many people, so many more people checked out Jetta way more than they would have without AK. It got a lot of discourse. It got a lot of coverage. It got a lot of social media attention. And, you know, you never know if he's got some more competitive reps or

starts playing better, there's always that chance, right? I think it is highly unlikely that he plays well on live this year, but crazier things have happened. And while if he continues to finish dead last every week, of course, people are going to stop caring. But on the off chance that he starts playing better and you actually have him

I know this sounds like a pipe dream, but if you're Liv, you still take that chance. If you're the PGA Tour, you take that chance. You give him a sponsor's exception. The problem is it works both ways in terms of a decision to give him a spot, which is, I think, again, a smart move, but it works both ways in terms of the legitimization of Liv in terms of

Is this a meritocracy? Right. So I know that live people are really upset about the O.W.G.R. But if you are signing people off the street that haven't played professional golf in 10 years, this is like this is why you aren't getting O.W.G.R. points. OK, can you imagine if the PGA Tour? I mean, people are.

uproar and uproar because the PGA Tour gave Adam Scott a sponsor's exemption to Bay Hill. Can you imagine if the PGA Tour gave Anthony Kim a sponsor's exception to any tournament and Anthony Kim happened to play well? Okay, because right, that is...

That has to be the goal if you're a live in the range of outcomes that maybe he plays well. Okay, so what happens if he took a sponsor's exception from the PGA Tour and played well and then he jumped a shit ton of live guys in the OWGR just because he played well in this PGA Tour event that he had no business being in because he has been out of the competitive golf ecosystem in a decade. Live people would be furious. They would lose their fucking minds, right?

If this guy that hadn't played pro golf in a decade somehow got into a tour event and got O WGR points, the same O G WGR points that live wants to have themselves, you know, so it's tricky because the basis of why he's there is very anti everything that live is trying to be via the O WGR. But at the same time,

I think they should just stop worrying about the OJJR and just lean into being different and being fun and being interesting. This is interesting. This is an interesting story. I don't know if the shelf life on it is as long lasting as,

Maybe people think it is in terms of it being able to hold our interest if he doesn't start playing good golf, but it's still interesting. And just stop getting so angry if people don't take them seriously, right? Be this spectacle, right? Be something different than the PGA Tour, which I spoke a ton this weekend on Twitter about this.

All of the mistakes that the PGA tour is making right now in terms of how they set up their courses in terms of their reluctance to look at technology, right? The doors completely open to do something cool and different and maybe get fans eyeballs, um, that are tired of watching driver wedge on the PGA tour over to you. Um, and like I said, I think if you're a web at this point, um,

Who cares if people don't take you seriously? They weren't going to take you seriously before you gave a spot to Anthony Kim. So like I said, at least lean into being something new. But I just want to say this Anthony Kim, the redemptive story, the aura and the mystery, I don't think there is as much meat on that bone as there

They may think there is. And I have said this. This story is out there. I'm not reporting anything crazy. You can ask around and find this stuff out. Okay. Anthony Kim cashed an insurance settlement. Everyone I know that is close to Anthony Kim.

People have spent time with this. He's not living in a bomb shelter, okay? He's been living in Dallas. He's spent some time in Austin. And then most recently, he's been playing a lot of golf in Palm Springs, okay? But everyone that I've talked to that has crossed paths with him over the last decade of time has said...

This is not somebody that was obsessed with golf. Even before he stopped competing on the PGA Tour, he had other interests. He had other things he cared about. But he was also uber talented. So when he made a lot of money off of an insurance settlement, he stopped playing golf.

And he had some fun. He drank a lot of tequila. I'm not going to talk about the drug stuff here. You can do your own deductive reasoning on that one. He played a lot of blackjack and poker. He loved cards. And he liked partying. And he had enough money to chill and do his own thing. And, you know, then as so happens when...

You start to get older. That act gets a little bit old. It starts to wear thin and your body can't take it as much anymore. And you start to get tired of it. And I believe he met a girl and he fell in love and he had a child shortly after and he got sober.

And I also think the money started running out too. And, you know, when you have a child, your financial responsibilities change. And also when you get sober, speaking from personal experience here, you start to care about the things that you didn't care about when you were in your addiction. And I don't even...

I don't even want to say that Anthony Kim was in addiction. I'm not going to classify him as an addict. That's up to him. But when you stop drinking and partying and living a certain lifestyle, when you stop that, you start to care about the things that you used to care about. I haven't drank in seven years, and I remember...

I was obsessed with golf my whole life. Okay. As soon as I could walk, I played junior golf my whole childhood. My whole childhood was junior competitive golf and traveling to play these junior tournaments and doing golf stuff with my dad and my granddad. Golf was my whole life. It was my whole life, my whole entire life. And then when

I got to high school and college and I went through my partying phase. I didn't play golf at all. This thing that was my entire life, I completely stopped caring about when I was in my active addiction. I just didn't matter to me anymore. Didn't matter to me anymore at all. And then I got my shit together and almost immediately I

I fell completely back in love with golf again. And that is my understanding of what happened with Anthony Kim, right? He cashed a check, partied hard, figured out he was getting older, right? You can only live like that for so long. Got his shit together, met a girl, got married, had a kid, and picked up a golf club again.

after a very long time of not caring about it and having different priorities. And he's been playing a lot of golf at the Madison club the past two years I've heard. And, um, my understanding is he picked up the phone and said, thought to himself, you know, I've got a kid probably don't have as much money as I did a decade ago. Uh,

I'm, I'm feeling better physically. I'm, I'm thinking more clearly. Like I said, my priorities have changed. Let's give this a shot. And of course, Liv said yes. Trust me, Liv asked him a long time before he said yes this time. Um, so I'm not sure if Anthony Kim wants to do some podcasts and like tell war stories about his late night poker games and the drinking and drugs. I, I,

I think people would be interested in that, but I'm not sure if he's going to do that. Like I said, he's got a young child and a wife now. I think he's trying to put that aspect of his life behind him. But if Anthony Kim wants to tell his story of overcoming, again, I'm not going to say addiction, whatever he overcame, then

overcoming a different destructive lifestyle, I'm very pro him doing that. And I've talked about this before with Tiger. When a person in the public eye with a lot of influence overcomes addiction or overcomes anything for that matter, when they are open about it,

And they talk about it and they share that journey of recovery and

That could do a lot of good. That can do a lot of good in the recovery community. I think Grayson Murray and Chris Kirk being open about their struggles has been very positive for everyone. The PGA Tour has been able to market it a little bit. And I think for them individually, again, speaking from personal experience here, it can be

very gratifying to be honest about what you went through and it can help a lot of people and give a lot of people hope and inspiration. And, you know, maybe with it, it seems Greg Norman is already onto this a little bit. Sees Anthony Kim as a,

you know, we can tell this redemptive story and, and I don't even want to make it seem like that's bad. I think, I think if Anthony Kim partied as hard as I understood that he did and is now playing competitive golf again, that's fucking cool. Um, but it's also really up to him if he wants to tell that story. I mean, tiger wanted no part of it. Okay. Tiger obviously had a very big drug problem and, um,

I think you just place in context, like he's tiger appears to be better now than he was in the past. Right. He,

seemingly overcame something okay he certainly looks a lot better now than he did that weekend when he went on the riviera broadcast high and crashed a car um so there's some sort of redemptive recovery journey that that took place with tiger woods um

Or he's hiding it better. I don't know. But he has had no interest in opening up about getting through that and cutting that stuff out of his life. And while, yes, that story would maybe help some people, definitely help some people and give some people hope, you know, it is really no one's business. It's really up to him. So with Anthony Kim, again,

I don't know what the plan is. This happened, from my understanding, pretty quickly in terms of Anthony Kim changing his mind on coming back into professional golf and the public spotlight. And he either becomes this guy where...

It didn't really work, but it's still really cool to have him part of the pro golf ecosystem again, kind of the Willie Wilcox road, right? Where he shares his story and then kind of just clearly not good enough to compete at the pro level, but he just kind of hangs around the pro golf ecosystem as a caddy or a broadcaster or whatever. And it's just...

it's good to have him back. Everyone's happy that he's back. Right. I think that was the case with Willie Wilcox. Everyone was happy for him to be honest about that and tell his story and, and glad to have him back in the game of golf. Maybe that's what this looks like with Anthony Kim, where he doesn't, maybe he can't get back to competing at the highest level, but he,

He's sober now and has different priorities and he wants golf to be a part of his life. As a caddy, a broadcaster, a media personality, whatever, that's great. That's awesome. But if he wants to take the Tiger Woods approach of like, I'm going to let the clubs do the talking and I'm kind of going to shut myself off to like,

talking about myself and being this personality and kind of not do what guys like Willie Wilcox have done, then Anthony Kim has got to play better golf because people are going to stop caring if he just finishes last on live every week. And I'm not even sticking a fork in his competitive chances because he was bad in his first tournament. Okay. And yeah,

While I think it's unlikely that he ever wins a live tournament or maybe even contends, I'm not going to rule it out. This guy has a God given gift. And when people get sober, um, I don't know what that road looked like for him. Uh, I have some details, not all of them. My understanding is that he has been sober for at least a year. Um, and,

I won't count him out because I completely became the optimal best version of myself when I stopped drinking and have been able to accomplish things and have a life that I only could have dreamed about. So who knows? He's talented as hell. And when you take a substance out of your life...

A lot of the people that struggle with addiction are really passionate, determined people that can replace a substance and fill that void with a really strong passion for something else. And hopefully in Anthony Kim's case, that's golf. But if it's not, and he just wanted to sign with Liv for more money and

try it out. And if it doesn't work, go down a different route. Like that's okay too. Um, maybe it's fatherhood. Okay. That fulfills them. So whatever. Right. Um, I'm very curious to see how this plays out. Uh, and I think there are a lot of, uh, a lot of different ways that, that this can go. Like I mentioned, I think that, um,

There's a universe where he starts playing better. I think that's probably the most unlikely outcome and returns in a real way competitively. And I think a very more likely outcome is Anthony Kim is in a better spot in his life now. And because of that, he's ready to be a part of golf again. And maybe even if that's not...

at the highest level of competition. That's awesome. That's, that's, that's really great. Um, so I, I, I wish him the best, uh, from everything I've heard from this, this story I've heard. I, I, I relate a lot to him and have a ton of compassion for, for a bunch of the stuff that he's gone through. And I wouldn't have cared if he shot 86 this week. Um,

Like I said, I think for the mass public to care, if he's just going to go the, I'm going to let the clubs do the talking. He needs to play good, but I don't give a shit. And, and, and I'm just happy that this is a priority again in his life. Okay. So let's take a quick break and then talk about the API.

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Ryan Reynolds here from Intmobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices back.

down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. All right, Arnold Palmer Invitational.

For the second year in a row, the API will be a signature event. But like all signature events this year, it will only feature 69 players, which is even a smaller field than the 70 to 80 that we kind of had at Riviera and Pebble Beach with a whopping purse of $20 million. So big one and done week out there. There will be a cut, my understanding is,

there is a 69 man field and, uh, after Friday, they will cut, uh, the top 50 and ties will make it through. So, you know, we could be looking at a situation where of that 69 man field, maybe 10 to 12, 15 guys miss the cut. Um,

Which is interesting. I don't, at that point, I don't know why you just keep them all around, but I think it creates a little bit of a, maybe a different angle for DFS where, uh, people maybe are a little bit, uh, more gun shy to take some chances on guys. We will see. Um,

In terms of former winners of this event, Kurt Kitayama was a surprise winner last year at nine under. Uh, then you had Scotty Scheffler at five under par, uh, Bryson at 11 under God, I miss Bryson back in these, uh, in, on golf courses like this. Uh,

Tyrell Hatton, four under par, Francesco Molinari, 12 under par in 2019, Rory, uh, 18 under, uh, in 2018. But we'll talk about how this golf course changed a lot between 2018 and 2019. Leishman day, Matt, every back-to-back years. Um, so Bay Hill, uh,

Bay Hill Club and Lodge. I have a complicated relationship to this golf course. I'm kind of workshopping a take that I actually think it's kind of good. I architecturally, I don't think it's great architecturally or scenically, but I actually think for testing pro golf.

It's pretty damn awesome. And I'll explain why. But it was designed by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee in 1961. And it had a Arnold Palmer redesign in 2009. It is a par 72 measuring 7,466 yards on the scorecard. So it's pretty long, although we do have four par fives. There are nine holes with water hazards. So it's

Not as much water as the Honda, but there's still a lot of trouble on this golf course. Bermuda fairways measuring 32 yards wide, three inch Bermuda rough. The three inches, uh, is crucial here. They really let the rough grow out here. And we've already, um, you know, we have seen pictures often in the days leading up of how sticky this rough is. This is the longest rough, uh,

that they have seen all year it is longer than the rough at tory it's longer than the rough at riviera it's longer than the rough at honda it's not quite u.s open rough but the rough is a big issue here more on that later 7 500 square foot bermuda greens on average that run 12 on the stem so medium-sized greens that are really firm and fast even firmer and faster than what we saw last week at

And, you know, in theory, this is a harder golf course than PGA National. It plays faster. It plays firmer. The rough is thicker. You know, just the fact that it's a par 72 when you give pros four par fives.

Um, like just on average par 72s are going to play a lot easier than par seventies because you get those extra two par fives. Um, but this is absolutely probably the hardest par 72 on the schedule. Um, and even despite being a par 72, it annually ranks as one of the hardest courses on the PGA tour. Uh, in 2020, it was the hardest course that they saw all season, including majors, uh,

where Terrell Hatton won at four under par, uh, when it was incredibly rent windy and the greens were rock hard that year. Uh, I don't expect it to play that difficult again. Uh, like last year, the winning score was minus nine. I think that's probably the ballpark minus eight to 11 is a more likely outcome, but it is still very difficult. Um, and this is very important in 2019, um,

We got a new superintendent, Chris Flynn. And since Chris Flynn took over as a superintendent-

It has played a lot harder the past couple of years. The winning score since Chris Flynn took over as superintendent has been minus 12, minus four, minus 11, minus five and minus nine. And even the minus 11 year, they got a softer course and left clean in place in the final round. So again,

Since Chris Finch took over in 2019, it has played inside the top seven in difficulty each of the last five years. So, you know, be careful with looking at Rory McIlroy winning at 1800 in 2018 or Matt every winning at 1900 in 2015. It's a bit of a different golf course now. And basically the reason that it got harder is because

you know, they actually widened the fairways a bit. Um, Bay Hill has pretty standard 33 yard wide fairways, but what they did was they removed a lot of the rough around the hazards, uh, and the bunkers. So it makes it a lot easier now to hit it into the water, um, and the bunkers because those areas are a lot more shaved off now. Um,

when the rough kind of used to act as this backstop. Now there is a much higher

higher chance of the ball rolling into the hazards and also around the greens into collection areas, tight Bermuda farther away from the pins. Plus the rough that they do have, they made a lot longer as well. So that's why this course has played a lot harder the last couple of years, longer rough hazards, more prominently in play. And we can probably continue to see this trend of

the winning score be a lot closer to eight, nine, 10 under, as opposed to 15, 16, 17 under. So long as Chris Flynn is in charge, by the way, shout out Chris Flynn. We need more guys. Can Chris Flynn drive over to PGA national the week prior and set up PGA national for us and then make the short trip to Orlando. We need more guys like Chris Flynn in positions of power that are

willing to rock the boat and make the best players just a little bit uncomfortable every once in a while. There aren't many courses that you're going to find outside of

the U S open venues that feature three inch rough and greens that run 12 on the stamp. Um, so personally I'm, I'm very excited for this week and, uh, the par threes at Bay Hill are a beast. Uh, they all measure above 200 yards and rank as the third, fourth, ninth, and 11th hardest holes on the course, uh, outside of last year, which is a little, uh,

Bit of an anomaly. It ranks top six most difficult set of par threes on the PGA Tour. A couple really challenging long par fours. Each of the last six years, its rank is the toughest. Par fours on the schedule. The finishing hole is...

Rinks is the hardest hole in the course, playing to a historic stroke average of 4.3 and a bogey rate of 22.1%. In fact, all five of the par fours that measure over 450 yards all feature over a 20% bogey rate. But the par fives, the fact that you have four par fives...

Those are where it's truly essential to take advantage of the course. They rank as the four easiest holes on the course, all reachable into by most of the field nowadays. And they all kind of feature a birdie rate north of 32%. The 16th hole has...

turned into a bit of a joke. That one measures only 511 yards on the scorecard, scoring average of 4.45, a birdie rate of 52%. But last year, all of them combined, they still ranked as the sixth hardest set of par fives on the PGA Tour, which should put into perspective how difficult this course is. And talking about why...

have been workshopping this, I think Bay Hill is kind of growing on me. And maybe it's just this golf course placed in the context of how bad the tests have been on the PGA tour to start the year. When I was diving into the research and thinking about the player profile that I wanted here, and this is why I think it actually does produce a more interesting tournament than even a place like Torrey Pines. Um,

I actually think you need a way more balanced skill set here. And if you look at the guys who have been the best here, okay, this is minimum eight rounds last 15 years. True strokes gained at Bay Hill. It's a lot of good players. Okay. Spieth, Scheffler, Rory, Tiger, Bryson, Cam Young, Sungjae, Hatton, Homa, Sergio, Francesco Molinari, Stenson.

You get a little bit of everything in there. So of those 12 guys, five of them, really long drivers of the ball. Three of them, really accurate drivers of the ball. Nine of them, really elite long iron players. Four of them have short games. None of them are really known as elite putters. So this is...

a total driving and long irons course for sure. And I'll talk about in the off the T section in a second, why this is much more of a total driving course than it is just a, a bomb and gouge course. Um, but it's a long irons course, number one, total driving number two, and also a bit of a scrambling course and a grinder course, right? Like,

Sungjae Hatton and you go a little bit farther down and you run into guys like Lucas Herbert and Matt Fitzpatrick, Bazayden Howe. So I would say at Bay Hill, the number one thing that you want to look at is long iron play, long iron play out of the rough, recent approach play, approach play and firm greens. That should be number one. Okay. Number two,

Total driving, right? And like I said, I'll get more specifically into why this is a total driving course more than it is a pure distance course, but recent off the tee form, how players perform off the tee on dry or heavy courses with thick rough and

Then, you know, if you don't have either of those two things, if you're not a good total driver of the ball and a great long iron player, man, you better be an elite, elite scrambler, an elite tough conditions guy, an elite Florida guy, a Spieth, a Bazaydenhout, a Herbert, a Fitzpatrick, a Fleetwood, I suppose. And, you know, I think what all PGA Tour courses should be striving for

is I talked about this a little bit with, with a bunch of people this week as it pertains to PGA national are the questions that your golf course is posing. Do they reward skill? Okay. Do they benefit the best players on tour, the most skilled players on tour, or do they level out skill and increase randomness and variance? Um,

And I think Bay Hill does a really good job of decreasing randomness and variance and asking questions that can only be answered with a skill that happens to be possessed by the best players in the world, which is long-errant play and total driving. Those are typically the questions that major championships ask as well. Okay, so off the tee,

Bay Hill ranked fifth in off the tee difficulty, and each of the last five years it has ranked inside the top 10 in off the tee difficulty. Driving distance at Bay Hill is just 287.2 yards, 4.3 yards below tour average. It actually has some of the lower driving distance on tour, which is

mainly because it's pretty tough to hit the fairways here. And since the rough is so thick, the ball sits down and stops. So this is definitely a week that you want to look at carry distance. Driving accuracy at Bay Hill is only 55%, 3.9% below the tour average. And if you want a perfect exemplification of how the course has changed since Finch took over in 2019,

Between 2015 and 2018, it featured some of the easiest fairways to hit on tour. And between 2019 and last year, it is ranked inside the top 15 and toughest fairways to hit, right? You want firmer. Okay. Well, less watering of the golf course. And last year, Bay Hill ranked ninth in Miss fairway penalty. And each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top 15 in Miss fairway penalty. Um,

but never inside the top five, I believe. So Bay Hill is not a pure bombing gouge course. The rough is so thick here that compared to bluegrass rough at, you know, winged foot and no kill just being in the rough is a penalty in itself. Um,

So this is really a course where you want a combination of, of distance and accuracy. And it actually reminds me a lot of Marco Simone off the tee, um, where you want to be above average and, uh, in boat and thinking of Marco Simone, we'll, we'll get there a little bit later. Cause I think your winner or winners are a couple of Ryder cup guys. Um,

But you want to be above, I talked about this at the Ryder Cup, you want to be above average in both distance and accuracy. Okay. And if you're not, I'd rather have you be above average in both distance and accuracy. And if you're not, you better be a lead at one of the two, right? You either better be Bryson distance, Cam Young distance off the tee or Henrik Stenson, Corey Connors accuracy, right? Okay.

Um, each of the last 10 years, it is ranked top 15 and rough penalty. And each of the last 10 years, it's ranked top 12 and miss fairways that result in a penalty stroke. Like, you know, this is not a golf course like Torrey Pines or Oak Hill or winged foot, where if you miss the fairway by 30 yards, you are going to get penalized in the same way that if you miss the fairway by two yards, um,

there's a fair amount of water on this course off in, in play off the tee. Um, each of the last five years, Bay Hill has ranked inside the top eight in penalty strokes per round four out of the last five years, it is ranked, um, top five in penalty strokes per round. So this is a golf course, um, that,

That rewards total driving, being a good driver, long and straight. That rewards being long and straight. And I'm not, this is statistically, but I'm not, statistically I can back this up, but I'm not breaking any news here if you look at a lot of the winners. Maybe more so than any other course on tour, and I'm not necessarily saying that

It rewards distance over any other course on tour or accuracy over any other course on tour. I think it, I think it rewards. And I think I, I know it rewards the combination of those two more than any other course on tour. And you look at it like last year,

Eight of the top 10 gained in driving distance, 22 of the top 30, six of the top 10 gained in accuracy, 18 of the top 30, seven of the top 10 gained in distance, 20 of the top 30 gained in distance in 2022. Conversely, six of the top 10 gained in accuracy, 17 of the top 30 gained in driving or in accuracy. So again, it's a bit of a lean to like, if I'm having to choose, okay.

I would choose distance over accuracy here in terms of correlation. But like I said, I think you want both. So I'm looking at a combination of carry distance, total driving, recent off the tee form, strokes gained off the tee on driver heavy courses with thick rough, right? You know, how do you perform off the tee?

Winged Foot and Oak Hill and Bay Hill, Beth Page, golf courses like that off the tee with thicker, rough, driver-heavy, longer golf courses. I want those guys. And then I think you could make the case that Bay Hill is the toughest –

course on the PGA tour. If the greens are playing firm, because not only do you have some of the firmest greens on the PGA tour, but also 32% of your shots are coming from 200 yards plus. Okay. That's the only proximity bucket that ranks above average. Um, because, uh, you've got 50,

Five longer par fours. All of the par threes measure over 200 yards. And the four par fives, at least three of the four. Okay. I won't say all four for every player, but reachable in two, especially if you hit a good drive. So you're suddenly looking at, yeah, you could have up to 10, 11 long irons during your round at Bay Hill. And yeah,

It is ranked inside the top five toughest greens to hit on tour each of the last five years. It's ranked inside the top six and approach difficulty greater than 150 yards. It's ranked inside the top six less than 150 yards. So yes, you need to drive the ball well to succeed at Bay Hill, but long iron play, long iron play out of the rough approach play on firm greens is

That is still number one to me. Um, because Kitty Yama, actually you look at like Kitty Yama and chef or at least each of the two guys that won the last two years, they drove the ball. Great. But their long irons were even better. Right? So you add all this up and it's like, man, and this is why I'm optimistic about this week producing an awesome event. Um,

Total driving and long iron play is more important here than maybe any other course on tour. You haven't, if you are good at those two things, particularly the long irons out of thick rough, you have an advantage at this course more than any other course on tour. And, and,

The best players in the world happen to be the best at those two things. That's how the best players in the world tend to separate themselves from very good players is being able to hit a long iron high and stopping it on a green. That's how the best players in the world separate themselves at US Opens.

That's how the best players in the world, to a certain extent, separate themselves at the Masters. Bay Hill's obviously a different test than the Masters. It doesn't emphasize total driving as much, but it certainly emphasizes the long-term play, right? So I'm very optimistic that if there's any golf course that can produce...

a, a great leaderboard of the best players in the world, uh, on the PGA tour. We're missing some great ones still, unfortunately, that I would love to see play here. But if there's ever a place, uh, that you would think some of the best guys in the world, the best guys in the field are starting on second base because of what they are good at. It's at Bay Hill. Um,

So, you know, I know this golf course is going to get talked about as a short game course too. Um,

But, and I know it has a low greens and regulation percentage. So based on sheer volume, short game certainly matters here. But in terms of statistically, it ranks 31st out of 45 courses in around the green play from the fairway, 23rd from the rough, 30th from the bunkers, 28th overall. I think chipping is probably the easiest aspect of Bay Hill, comparatively speaking, because these greens are still pretty flat.

Right. And there wasn't really the short game correlation that you would expect on this course. Last year, two of the top four actually lost strokes around the green. The year prior, no players in the top five finished top 20 in around the green play. But like I said, due to the low greens and regulation percentage, the challenge of chipping out of thick rough, I still think you want to look.

very closely at players that raise their baseline around the green and putting on Bermuda courses. Same thing with putting, right? These are very firm and fast Bermuda greens. Um, so, uh,

grainy right um firm fast grainy you want to look at players that putt and chip well on firm and fast bermuda greens but at the end of the day and i kind of exemplified this and looking at the guys that have played the best here it's ball striking um it's total driving it's long-term play out of the rough it's all of these things that you can look at on the rabbit hole right um

Strokes gain T to green on courses with thick, rough and firm greens ball striking on Bermuda courses, ball striking on Florida courses, right? Um, par five scoring that plays a role as well. Um, and it also, by the way, Bay Hill has the third highest correlation of course history on the PGA tour. Um, it goes Augusta, big gap, Riviera,

Bay Hill, then TPC Scottsdale, then YLI. So we're actually now through all of the PGA Tour courses where history really matters. Now they're going to be

outside of Augusta. They're going to be outliers to that. Of course, Kurt Kitayama won last year on his first appearance and Patrick Cantlay finished fourth on his first appearance. Sung Jae finished third on his first appearance, but this is a very specific style of golf. This is Florida golf at its hardest. This is firm greens, long irons, thick, rough, fast Bermuda, like

They're just going to be guys that know how to do that and guys that don't. And this golf course does a really good job of separating elite players from lesser players. So, you know, it's not that this golf course is necessarily strategically nuanced or difficult to figure out. It just does a good job of separating the best players from the worst players. You look at

The top four guys in strokes gain total at Bay Hill. Spieth, Scheffler, Rory, Tiger. Those are what? Four of the eight best players of the last 20 years? Yeah. Spieth, Scheffler, Tiger, Rory. I would add, yeah, I'd say those are four of the eight best players of the last 20 years. I'd add DJ, Phil, Rom, Brooks.

Right. Those are the eight best players of the last 20 years. DJ, Phil, Ron, Brooke, Shuffler, Rory, Tiger, Spieth. It gets pretty unassailable, right? Who's nine JT. That'd be a fun podcast to do best players of the 21st century. So from 2000 on, I actually think you're catching some VJ and Ernie L's in there. Um, you get the point. The best player should play well here. If the conditions are what they have been, um,

Can we trust the PGA tour to deliver that? I don't know. The Honda had this unique identity, the bear trap. It was very Florida and water heavy and tough and just a change of pace from the driver wedge thing. And then the PGA tour made active efforts to make that golf course less challenging. And that's why I talked about on Twitter. The reason why we have had so many long shot winners on the PGA tour is

It's not just because a lot of good players have gone to live. That's part of it, but that's not remotely all of it. It's because due to technological advances and the PGA Tour's reluctance to acknowledge those technological advances, curb those technological advances, and change their setups to cater to those technological advances...

It has never been harder for an elite golfer to separate themselves from a very good golfer. And therein lies the massive discrepancy and disconnect between what you would think the PGA Tour's intent is and what their actions are. The PGA Tour has never needed its stars more, and yet they are actively...

uh, in their power, uh, doing everything in their power with the way that they set up courses and the way that they refuse to regulate technology. Um, they're doing everything in their power to make it harder for their stars to succeed. It's, it's literally never been harder for the best players in the world to be able to separate themselves on an average PGA tour setup than it is right now. Um,

So that's a whole other podcast. But the way Bay Hill has been historically set up, it generally allows the best players to come back year after year and be able to separate themselves from the lesser players. All right. Let us talk about let's let's run through the top 20 in my model real quick and then do some quick early leads. I have two quick opinions on players that I really, really like this week.

Okay, so throw all this together in the model. You can check it out on the rabbit hole, betsportsgolf.com, code INSIDEGOLF to get 25% off, and you can view every player in the field. But I'm just going to give you the top 20 real quick. Number one, Rory McIlroy. Got to be honest, I have not watched a ton of The Cognizant. I have Shane Lowry outright, and yet...

I still have a golf commitment tomorrow, so I'm not going to be able to watch that. Hopefully, Lowry gets home. I don't really know how Rory's played, but Bay Hill is a perfect, perfect golf course for him. So he's number one. Scottie Scheffler's number two, not far behind. It's basically just the putter that's holding him back right now. Rory's a little bit better of a putter right now.

Incredible golf course for Scotty Scheffler. And I just want to say, I don't think it's the route that I'm going to go down because I think I'm going to bet two other guys. But if there was ever a week to talk yourself into single bulleting Rory or Scotty, you'd want to do it on this golf course. Okay. Because this is the golf course where those guys start on second base and are going to have the easiest time separating themselves from the rest of the field.

Number three, Patrick Cantlay. Number four, Xander Shoffley. The Disgusting Brothers. The Disgusting Brothers won me a lot of money in DFS at Riviera, and I have no idea what the ownership is going to come down on them this week. I had a lot of concerns about those guys in Florida and on Bermuda. They've done a really good job of quelling that. I dug into the stuff.

Cantlay finished fourth here last year. Zander and Zander's moving to Florida. Okay. And he's been like incredible at Eastlake, another golf course with narrower fairways and thicker Bermuda rough and fast, firm Bermuda greens. So I don't think that Zander and Cantlay can't succeed in Florida, even though neither of them have ever won in Florida. Not betting them this week.

Not betting the disgusting brothers. They're kind of less sexy names compared to... And despite the fact that they finished fourth, both at Riviera, I think they lowered themselves in the estimation of a lot of golf bettors. Probably not DFS players because they're so damn consistent, but golf bettors because they...

Really weren't that great on Sunday, particularly Cantlay, who was kind of in pole position to win that tournament. But I'll consider them in DFS, of course, if the ownership is low. You've been getting pretty good ownership on the Disgusting Brothers this year. I've been playing them every week just because they've been lower owned than I think they should have been statistically on these golf courses. So we'll see.

Number five, Victor Hovland. Great golf course for Victor Hovland. Number six, Cameron Young. Amazing golf course for Cameron Young. Number seven, Corey Connors. Amazing golf course for Corey Connors. Number eight, Keegan Bradley. I love this golf course for Keegan Bradley. Number nine, Ludwig Aubert.

if I was building a golf course, uh, if I was building a golf course, like designed perfectly for love. And I've been talking about this all year that Ludwig's going to win the API. Um,

This is a pretty perfect spot for Ludwig from a statistical standpoint. 10, Tom Kim, which is a little surprising. But again, I don't think this is like the bombing gouge course that a lot of people may think it is. And I believe I played him in DFS at Cognizant. I haven't really paid attention to him after he made the cut today.

11, Zalatoris. Great Zalatoris course. 12, Max Homa. Stefan Jaeger, 13. Man, he killed me this week, but probably a good flop lag opportunity. 14, Luke Liss. 15, Adam Scott. 16, Matt Fitzpatrick. 17, Kurt Kitayama. 18, Colin Markawa. 19, Adam Svensson. Whoa, talk about killing me.

Talk about killing me. All is forgiven at the Cognizant Classic if Shane Lowry gets the outright. And we even thought for a second, he's five back of Lowry now, so I don't think it's going to happen. Parker Cootie, 500-1. What a strong effort, okay? He was three strokes back in this tournament, like midway through Saturday's round.

Talk about getting your money's worth. Okay. 500 to one Parker Cootie. But anyway, Adam Svensson, in terms of like my expectations for a player, how confident I was in a player and the discrepancy of what happened with that player.

I don't know if there's been a bigger whiff for me this year than my confidence in Adam Svensson to play well and potentially win the Cognizant Classic versus the outcome of what actually happened with Adam Svensson this week at the Cognizant Classic. But I'll play him again at the API because I do not hold grudges. Okay. So, like I said, when I first ran through the numbers...

said to myself, man, you know what? This feels like the week that Rory or Scotty gets it done. And I think that's a valiant, valiant strategy if you want to just bet one of those guys. And who knows? Maybe I lock one of them in DFS and I'm very heavy in them that way because I'm not going to end up betting them. But then I started diving into the Victor Hovland stuff. Okay? Started digging into Victor Hovland. And

Now, Victor Hovland, I thought was going to win Pebble Beach. Spoiler alert, Victor Hovland, not only did he not win Pebble Beach, he looked really bad at Pebble Beach too. Okay. And then he withdrew from the Phoenix Open to work on his game. And he came back at Riviera and he looked pretty good. He had a very quiet T19 at Riviera.

We'll get back to the reset form in a second. Let me just weigh out the case for Hovland's course fit. Okay. He's got a runner up here and a 10th in his last two appearances. The last two years, he's gained over nine strokes, ball striking and a stroke putting. So he's hit the ball unbelievably here and he's putted very well here as well. Hovland. Now I think the,

Three best drivers of the ball for the question that Bay Hill is posing off the tee are Cameron Young, Ludwig, and Rory. I think right now those are the three best drivers on the PGA Tour. I'm not going to say the world because I think when Bryson's at his best and Rahm's at his best, they're

they're very much in that conversation as well. But in this field, I think the three best drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour for Bay Hill that will have the most advantage off the tee are Cameron Young, Rory, and Ludwig in terms of the way that they combine carry distance and total driving and have performed off the tee on golf courses like this. Hovland's like right below them. Hovland and Scheffler,

And Zalatoris, when he's playing his best, too. There are a couple other guys that you could maybe throw into that second tier. But really, right below them is Hovland and Scheffler, in my opinion. And same with the approach play, right? In terms of long irons, approach play on firm greens, there's very few players that you trust more than Hovland. To hit a long iron high and get it to stop on a firm green.

Remember, he finished second in that super, super firm year that Scheffler ended up winning. Now, he's fifth ball striking on Bermuda T to green golf courses and second strokes gain total in Florida over the last three years. So Hovland has sneakily been this incredible Bermuda and Florida guy. And he's played well here. He's played well at the players. Third at Valspar. Fifth at Eastlake.

Played really well at the concession too. So he's never won yet in Florida, but he does play really, really well here. And he's won the Memorial. Now we get it. Let's talk more. We talked about how he dominates on these Florida Bermuda golf courses, Eastlake players, Arnold Palmer, Votational, Valspar. Let's talk about, you know, firm, thick, rough golf courses. Okay.

He's won the Memorial Memorial on the PGA tour might have the second thickest rough outside of Bay Hill. Okay. He won the Memorial. Now the other golf course that's up there in terms of thick rough Olympia fields, Hoffman won there too. Torrey Pines,

Very thick rough in that conversation. Very thick rough for a PGA Tour course. Not the same level technically maybe as Bay Hill or even Memorial or Olympia Fields, but up there. Second at Torrey Pines. Then certainly in the conversation for thick or rough, Oak Hill. Victor Hovland finishes second at Oak Hill. So he finishes 19th at the Genesis. I did not play him at the Genesis because...

I thought how he looked at Pebble Beach was so abhorrent to me. I couldn't do it. And he gained... At the Genesis, he was fine. Finishing 19th, 2.1 off the tee, 1.6 on approach, lost 1.8 around the green, gained .3 putting. Now...

The ball striking got better for him at the Genesis in both categories from Pebble Beach. He hit the ball well at gain almost four strokes ball striking, which is better than it seems in a, you know, a shorter field and the short game with Hovland. That's the, that's the one key thing here that I couldn't do at Riviera. Riviera is a much trickier short game course than Bay Hill in my opinion, but

The short game with Hovland, I was watching, I dug into this closely at Riviera. So at the beginning of Riviera, it looked really bad. Okay. It's like, God, this is not fixed at all. And then something happened in rounds three and four Riviera. And he actually gained strokes around the green and both round three and four, but by a, a much larger, but like it was his rounds three and four Riviera around the green.

It's the best he's chipped this year. Okay. So I don't know what happened on Friday night in Los Angeles, but, and now he's had an extra week at home to practice even more. But I think there's something to the thick, rough Memorial Oak Hill. I know he chipped badly at Bay Hill last year, so I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, but

But I think there's something to the thick rough thing with Victor Hovland, right? You look at the best short game performances of his career. I'm going to give you the best short game performances of Victor Hovland's career. LACC, Bermuda, thick rough around the greens in LACC, really thick rough around the greens there. It's the best short game performance of his career on a firm golf course like LACC with thick rough around the greens. Number two,

Best short game performance of Victor Hovland's career. Oak Hill. That's a golf course I'm very familiar with. Played Oak Hill a dozen times now. Very thick rough around the greens at Oak Hill. CJ Cup at Congaree. Firm Bermuda. Not as thick rough, but firm Bermuda. TPC Southwinds. Bermuda again. Some thicker rough there too. Not as thick, but Bermuda. Tight lies off Bermuda. Grainy. Eastlake.

Bermuda, thicker rough. Memorial, thicker rough. Very thick rough around the greens at Memorial. So those are the six best short game performances of his entire career. It's either thick rough or Bermuda or both.

And Bay Hill is actually not that hard around the—I mean, he's chipped well at way tougher courses around the greens. So I know that Bay Hill, you know, people talk about short game because the greens and regulation percentage is so low. But Hovland's, you know, one of the best iron players in the world, too. So if you're betting Victor, you're expecting the irons to be top-notch, but—

A week off, way better ball striking performance at RIF. Short game started to come around over the weekend. He's played really well here. He's amazing on thick, rough, firm greens. Olympia Fields, Oak Hill, Memorial. I talked myself into it. I don't know how good that sell was. In my head, it was an amazing sell. But I'm betting Victor Hovland at Bay.

And I'm going to pair him with his Scandinavian Scandinavian brethren in Ludwig Ludwig and Victor at Bay Hill. I'm kind of pot committed to this Ludwig thing at Bay Hill already. But that's that's a two man duo. That's a two man duo. You feel good about. I mean, as somebody that's rolled into to golf tournaments before, I usually don't bet bet them, especially together.

But as somebody that's rolled into golf tournaments before, at least from a DFS perspective, like, all right, I'm going to battle with Xander and Cantlay this week. Got to say, going to battle this week with Ludwig and Hovland, I need a name for them. You know, I just want to say I was the first guy to ever call Cantlay and Xander the disgusting brothers. Don't know if that's taken hold, if anyone else calls him that.

Somebody let me know. DM me if you could think of a good name for, of course, the Disgusting Brothers as a reference to Succession, the show, Greg and Tom on the show Succession. Let me know if you can think of a name for Ludwig and Hofflett. Yeah.

I was thinking about it could be something with Goji if we want to stick with the Succession theme. The Skarsgård character in Succession Season 3 reminds me of the same type of energy as Ludwig and Hovland. But real quick on Hovland, he played Bay Hill before and finished 24th.

He it's tough, man. Rory's right there. Ludwig might be the best overall driver of the ball in this field. And this golf course is going to accentuate that more than maybe any other golf course on tour. Second in total driving fourth and carry distance seventh off the T on driver heavy courses with thick rough. We saw what he just did at Torrey Pines. His irons continue to improve. He's top 20 now in both fairway proximity, 200 yards plus and,

and rough proximity, 200 yards plus. He's actually had a ton of success on Bermuda, ranking 24th around the green on Bermuda courses, 10th on fast Bermuda greens, dominates par fives. I know his only experience on these type of thicker rough courses are a ninth at Torrey Pines and 24th at Bay Hill, which is very good debut at Bay Hill, and he's a much better player now.

But he was runner-up at Sanderson Farms, Bermuda, 14th at Wyndham, won the RSM Classic on Bermuda. And he's coming off a 19th at the Genesis, kind of quiet 19th at the Genesis. But he's putting well. Obviously, the ball striking is always going to be there with Ludwig, but he's gained over 0.9 strokes putting in four straight starts. Ludwig might be a pretty good putter.

And he might have a pretty good short game. And the approach play is really starting to come around as well. And we know what he's capable of, too. So like I said, if I was designing a golf course for Ludwig, it would look a lot like Bay Hill. It would be this golf course that heavily emphasizes long and straight. Because I think if you're making the case for why Ludwig is the best driver of the ball in the world,

What you would say is on average, he's straighter than Rory and Cameron Young. And I think at Bay Hill specifically, that matters. So Victor Ludwig, maybe this is a cop out, but I think Rory and Sheffield are really good picks too. You know, it's not good content to just pick them all. I'm more down on the disgusting, but I've been kind of down on JT this week. I'm down on,

Maybe a little, a little more down on, uh, Morikawa. Um, but you know, that's why, uh, join the run pure sports community and talk it through with me because, uh, I don't play the guys in DFS necessarily that I talk about on the podcast. I can't tell you that I will bet Victor and Ludwig, but, uh,

Stats, model, Sunday night are a very small percentage of who I end up rolling with in Daily Fantasy. We'll see what the prices are and the ownership is. It'll be fun to do this week. Very, very excited for this one. All right, that's it. We went very long. I don't feel awful about this one going long because I spent about 25 minutes on Anthony Kim and we've gone an hour 15.

So I still stuck in my 50 minutes of course, core stuff. Best of luck with your bets this weekend, especially if you're rooting for Shane Lowry. Okay. That would be wonderful if Shane Lowry won. Who knows? I don't know. I haven't watched much of this tournament, but I hope Shane Lowry wins. That would be great for my bank account. All right. Until then.

Rumpieresports.com, code Andy for 15% off. If you want to join the community, if you want to talk golf with me, if you want to talk DFS with me, get all my DFS plays, pick my brain on that. Join that community. It's the best community for tilting and fun and just general hangout. I'm in there 24-7 talking golf with guys, answering questions. If you want to be a part of it, rumpieresports.com, code Andy for 15% off.

We have a golf only option if you're a golf only guy. So find the golf only option, type in code Andy and join us in that community. Shoot me a message in the discord over there. And if you want all the stats, the model,

the rabbit hole. If you want to make your own model, if you want access to all of the data and information that I'm looking at, that's birch golf.com code inside golf for 15% off. Enjoy the rest of the weekend. Best of luck with your bets. Enjoy the golf on Sunday and we will see you next time. Cheers. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same. If you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are

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