2024 3M Open Preview
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resource if you are serious about betting and playing DFS golf. It has been for me at least. I credit it as a crucial piece in any of the success that I have been able to have, including this week at the Open Championship. So if you want full access to the model that I make, BetSportsGolf is where you want to go. And as always, the discount that you want is insidegolf, coming off BetSportsGolf.

potentially another huge week at the open. Nice little end of the summer charge here. This tool is absolutely essential to have if you are serious about making money in golf betting and DFS. Betspertsgolf.com code INSIDEGOLF for a whopping 25% off discount. All right, I'm recording this at 9 a.m. Eastern, Sunday morning of the Open Championship. I have some fun sweats this afternoon. I'm going to be

We got the Corey Connors bounce back that we needed today. Need a big day from Sepp Straka. Need a big day from Jason Day. And hopefully a win from either Scottie Schiff or our guy Russell Henley. I'm as excited to walk in and watch as I have been for any Sunday of a professional golf tournament. And as long as I can remember, I think outside of the catastrophe at Valhalla,

This has been one of the best major years in recent memory. I think Troon exceeded expectations. I think that the general consensus on Troon heading into the week was certainly not the worst open venue, but certainly not the best either. And we really need the weather to cooperate for this place to deliver and deliver.

Boy, God did it. I think the weather cooperated in ways that I didn't expect. I did not expect it to play this hard. Luckily, it

Still played enough in line that the guys I chose heading into the week in terms of my course breakdown, it really worked out. But I did not expect us to get a single-digit par under winner. And I think that's really just a testament to...

the fact that it's pretty damn still hard to, to predict, uh, the weather in the British Isles, which is something we talked about a lot heading in, um, which has been my experience playing golf and traveling to the British Isles is that, uh, the forecast seven days out, the forecast 10 days out the forecast, even 24 hours out. Um,

Can change, can change. And in this case, it changed so much for the better, in my opinion, getting to watch guys on the back nine yesterday hit driver into driving rain and wind on a par three.

You're just not going to get that at any other tournament on the PGA Tour, at any other tournament in professional golf in general. And I can't wait to do a full extensive recap on Monday of everything that we saw this week at Troon. But today we're going to do a quick little breakdown of the 3M Open. I think the juxtaposition of the golf that we are going to see at Troon

TPC Twin Cities next week compared to what we got to watch this week at Troon. It's going to be like having lunch at a Michelin star restaurant and then dinner at, I don't know, 7-Eleven pizza. I could not think of a more different, contrasting style of golf. One being golf.

What's everything that that's right with architecture and how to test the modern pro golfer and the latter being the most banal point and shoot strategically homogenous target golf in TPC Twin Cities. But hey, the money still spends the same money.

I still have no problem getting up for your standard run-of-the-mill PGA Tour event and still always an edge to be had. So let's dive in. Let's talk about TPC Twin Cities. The golf course is in Blaine, Minnesota. It was designed...

by Arnold Palmer with a Tim Herron and Tom Lehman renovation in 2018. It's a par 71 measuring a hair over 7,400 yards. It doesn't always play that long because you've got some altitude. Water comes into play at a whopping 15 holes. Back grass fairways measuring 35 yards wide on average. Blue grass rough measuring three inches. Back grass greens measuring 6,500 square feet running average.

12 on the Stimp last year. I don't remember this tournament at all last year. I think it was on a golf trip, um,

when Lee Hodges was just absolutely lifting and separating and running away from the field. He shot 24 under last year, a tournament scoring record over Martin Laird, JT Poston. Oh, he did have Poston that year. Now I remember. Kevin Strailman, who all shot 17 under. Hodges was 85 to 1. Great shout if you were on Lee Hodges that week.

Twenty-two, 2022, Tony Finau 17-under over Emiliano Grillo and Sung Jae Im at 14-under. 2021, Cameron Champ, I do remember this one, over Luis Thaising, Charles Wurzel, Jonathan Vegas at 13-under par. Champ was confined to his highest, 201 that week, I believe.

2020, Michael Thompson, 19 under. And 2019, the first year that the tournament was in place, was Matthew Wolfe at 21 under over Bryson DeChambeau and Colin Murakawa at 20 under. This is one of Wolfe's first PGA Tour events. He won at 130 to 1. Kind of miss Wolfe playing some good golf. But anyway, TPC 20, Twin Cities, TPC.

Very standard, run-of-the-mill, very vanilla PGA Tour course. There's room off the tee, but I would say how this golf course is truly defined, the ethos of this golf course, is that there are a lot of water, right? Large misses will be penalized by water hazards. It very much rewards aggressive play. There's a lot of risk-reward holes, but...

Water, again, is the entire ethos of this golf course. The greens are large and incredibly flat and incredibly benign. The golf course is by no means short, and it still features a fair amount of long irons. Three of the four par threes measure over 200 yards, and all three of the par fives measure between 590 and 600 yards, yet short.

Many of the longer hitters can still easily reach these holes in two shots. For the amount of water that's featured, TPC Twin Cities is amazing.

An incredibly driver-heavy golf course. And it is by no means a club-down positional golf course, despite the fact that big misses are penalized. Players are still going to take their chances and rip driver. The fairways are pretty wide. There's enough of a benefit to take on a lot of these holes. And it's just very similar to...

a Florida golf course in the way that water is utilized as a defining characteristic. Like I, I know that TPC twin cities gets lumped into rocket mortgage, um,

John Deere Classic, Keen Trace, some of these backgrass birdie fests. And it is in many ways Traveler's TPC River Highlands. But at the end of the day, this is far more similar to a PGA National than it is a Rocket Mortgage because there's so much water there.

in play off the tee. Last year, it ranked six out of 40 courses and penalty strokes per round, and it has ranked inside the top five all five years that it has been hosted at TPC Twin Cities in penalty strokes per round. While water generally diminishes strategic value, there's still some

Pretty fun drama down the stretch here. I would imagine that most folks are outside with the family playing golf on a beautiful end of July weekend like this. But if you happen to get by a TV on Sunday last year notwithstanding, there's generally some good stuff happening. I'm not sure if it's good stuff architecturally, but it's certainly some...

There's high leverage shots, right, which is what you want. All six of the final holes feature over a 10% birdie rate and a 10% bogey rate. I think one of my problems with TPC Deer Run and TPC Rocket Mortar, sorry,

uh, Detroit golf club is that you can only go forwards. There's no real way to go backwards. Right. And I think one of the cool things about TPC twin cities that makes it a better test of pro golf than, uh,

TPC Dia run and Detroit Golf Club is that you can also go backwards here. The par four 16th hole features a 28% birdie rate, but it also features a 12% bogey rate. The par five 18th hole features a 36% birdie rate, but also a 14% bogey rate, as well as a whopping 6% double bogey rate, which is astronomically high for a three shotter. So the golf course finishes with

This par five is,

lined by water all down the right where obviously it's par five. You can make birdie there, but you could also make some, some pretty massive numbers as well. And, and, you know, because of the amount of water, I would not call TPC twin cities, a pure birdie fast, given the amount of blow up potential on this golf course. And despite players having absolutely the ability to shoot 64 in any given round, I,

we still see some huge numbers too, you know, in its first year, uh, TPC twin cities ranked as the fifth easiest course on tour. Um, and it ranked as the fourth easiest course on tour and its second year. Uh,

Tournament organizers kind of started to do a better job was set up in 2021 and 2022. The golf course got a little bit harder. There was less lead in rain. It played a little bit firmer. We got a little bit more win. And in 2021, it ranked middle of the pack in terms of difficulty. Right. And you saw Cameron Champ win at a very modest 15 under par on the modern PGA Tour tournament.

Winning a golf tournament at 15 under par is by no means a birdie fest, right? And, you know, in 2022, it ranked...

16th out of 38 courses in difficulty. So it was certainly progressing in the tougher direction in 2021 and 2022. And then last year, we kind of saw it regress to the 11th easiest golf course on tour with Lee Hodges breaking the tournament scoring record at 24 under par. So despite the fact that it features three longer par threes,

It has the easiest set of one-shotters on the PGA Tour last year, the par threes. Basically, the only aspect that's tough about them is that they're on the longer side. These greens are so freaking flat.

at TPC Twin Cities. Like I could not, I could not think of an easier and flatter and more banal set of green complexes on the entire PGA tour than TPC Twin Cities. There's barely any movement on the greens. There's barely any slope on the greens. And the par fours and fives,

played barely any tougher despite their over-imposing length. So again, at the end of the day, this golf course is really about keeping the ball in play off the tee and avoiding the water hazards, right? Like you could really get hot on this golf course on the putting surface. It's a very easy golf tournament to win by spiking on approach. I mean, I would be sure to monitor and wind and weather conditions this week, but

Because under very soft and non-windy conditions, this can play as the 10th easiest golf course on tour. And I would say under a little bit tougher conditions, basically what we saw the Cameron Champ year in 2021, the Tony Finau year in 2022,

It could play as middle of the pack in terms of scoring difficulty. It is not a pure birdie fest a la TPC Deer Run or Detroit Golf Club due to the amount of waters, but it's not as challenging as TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southland, PGA National, these other

water heavy, uh, Southern golf courses where water is, is the clear defining character trade of, of that golf course. It's, it's kind of somewhere in the middle, right? It's, it's harder than your typical bank grass birdie fast where it's impossible to blow up, but it's, uh, it's not, you know, it's not quite, it's a little bit easier than like your, uh,

avoiding landmines everywhere in terms of sawgrass, Southland, PGA National. The fairways are a little bit wider. The greens are flatter. The greens play a little bit softer. So again, depending on wind and firmness, it plays somewhere between the 10th and the 20th easiest way

golf course on tour and the name of the game this week is keeping the ball in play off the tee that is step one and then spiking either on approach or with the flat stick let's talk about a couple more things pertaining to the golf course in terms of our breakdown and then we'll dive into the model and talk some early leans but first let's take a quick break

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Just go to Indeed.com slash BlueWire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash BlueWire. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here from Intmobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down.

So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. Mint Mobile, unlimited premium wireless. How did they get 30, 30, how did they get 30, how did they get 20, 20, 20, how did they get 20, 20, how did they get 15, 15, 15, 15, just 15 bucks a month? Sold! Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes each detail. Okay, we are back. So as I mentioned with TPC Twin Cities,

The number one objective is keeping the ball in play off the tee, right? And it ranks 17th out of 45 courses and missed fairway penalty.

Each of the last five years, it has ranked in the top half in this category, which is mainly all due to the amount of water on this golf course. The rough is not much of an issue at all at TPC Twin Cities. It ranks well below average and rough penalty, but it does rank ninth out of 45 courses in non-rough penalty and sixth out of 45 courses in non-rough penalty.

Out of 45 courses, infraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. You don't need to be deadly accurate here, but it's just paramount to avoid disaster off the tee at TPC in Twin Cities. And one of the reasons why I love the rabbit hole so much is because you can actually filter out

golf courses that have a high missed fairway penalty that have a ton of water hazard. So you can filter out. We have a filter on the rabbit hole that can look at all of these water heavy golf courses like TPC Twin Cities, obviously like TPC Southwind, like PGA National, like TPC Sawgrass. So one of the things that I looked at pretty closely this week is how

how players performed off the tee, how players performed from a ball striking perspective on these golf courses with a ton of water, right? So for example, like I'll run through here, the top 10 players in terms of ball striking on water heavy golf courses, right? So your Sawgrass is your Southwinds, your PGA Nationals, your Bay Hills, your TPC Twin Cities in this field.

Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Luke Lest, Keith Mitchell, number one in my model this week, Doug Gimm, Austin Eckroth, Tom Hoagie, Vincent Norman, Emiliano Griot, Carson Young, right? So those are the players that are consistently the strongest off the tee and on approach on these golf courses where they're

There's water pretty much everywhere, right? And I think if you can just tread water off the tee and keep the ball in play, again, I know that there have been some bombers that have had a ton of success at this golf course, right? Your Matthew Wolfe's, your Cameron Champs, your Keith Mitchell's, your Jonathan Vegas's, your Tony Finau's, like all of those guys are big hitters that have performed very admirably at TPC Twin Cities. But I think if you can just tread water off the tee and keep the ball in play,

There's not some tremendous correlation of power off the tee and success, right? There's enough trouble in play that you cannot just bomb away aimlessly here. You do need to be able to control your golf ball off the tee. And that's why I think it's such a great and important week to look at good drive percentage, right? Because if you go back and

you know, look at the correlation between distance and accuracy. Finding the fairway has proven to be over the years just as important, if not more important than hitting the ball a long way here in 2022, only eight of the top 15 players gained to the field and distance 10 of the top 15 gained in accuracy in 2021. It was pretty split between distance and accuracy.

You have your outliers where Cameron Champ won the event, ranking toward the top of the field in distance and below average in accuracy. But then if you go down the leaderboard a little bit farther, 11 of the top 25 actually lost to the field in driving distance. And the only through line that we can draw across the last three years is

is really good drive percentage, right? Uh, which basically is measuring, uh, can you drive the ball either in the fairway or in a position that allows you to hit the green and regulation, right? So that's going to filter out a lot of those players that are not necessarily deadly accurate, but avoid the big mess, right? Because, uh,

If you miss big here, you're not hitting the green and regulation. And that's really what it comes down to. It's a golf course with a very high greens and regulation percentage, and you need to put yourself in position off the tee to be able to hit that green and regulation. And the only way to do that is to,

to consistently not hit the ball in the water, right? And if we look at the last three years, 28 of the top 30, top 10 finishers gained to the field in good drive percentage. And good drive percentage is going to, again, help us identify those players that are not necessarily the most accurate drivers in the world, but rather those who consistently keep the ball and play off the tee. And again, put them in position to attack this golf course on approach, because that's really...

how you win the tournament, right? You're not going to win this tournament with the way that you drive the ball. You're only going to lose this tournament with the way that you drive the ball. You've got to put yourself in position off the tee. And then to win this tournament is to spike on approach or spike with, with the putter, right? Last year, the greens and regulation percentage was almost 75%, which is 9.2% above tour average. It featured the third easiest greens to hit on the PGA tour average.

Uh, it's one of the most generous approach courses on the PGA tour. Again, I mentioned you can really go at and attack these pens. If you're playing from the fairway, there's not a lot of slope and undulation whatsoever to these greens. Like there's, there's very little instances where you have to play to certain points in the green to feed the ball closer to the pen. You're not really going to get your hand caught in the cookie jar if you're, uh,

aggressively attacking flags. Like the greens are generally soft enough where if you miss a green on the short side, it's very, very easy to get up and down and save parts. One of the easier short game golf courses on the PGA tour. Again, not a week at all where I think that you want to look at short game too much with such a high greens and regulation percentage. Um,

Each of the top 15 players on the leaderboard in 2019 gained strokes on approach. Each of the top 12 in 2020 gained strokes on approach. In 2021, 13 of the top 15 gained to the field on approach. In 2022, every single one of the top five players on the leaderboard gained over five strokes on approach.

And you look at the way that Lee Hodges won this golf tournament last year, he absolutely lapped the field in approach play. So, you know, again, depending on whether this golf course plays as, you know, the 20th easiest golf course on the PGA tour or the 10th easiest golf course on the PGA tour, it really just comes down to approach and putting. Lee Hodges, the

spiked last year on approach we've seen players spike with the putter and win this tournament like the Cameron champ here but that's what you got to do you have to spike and you either have to gain like four in both of those categories or spike in one of those categories last year we saw Lee Hodges do it with his approach play he lifted and separated and ran away from the field with his approach play and

That's really what it comes down to, is that approach play and putting. Once you get on the greens, it's a very easy putting golf course, so you don't necessarily need to be some elite putter. It's not necessarily a golf course where poor putters play.

Um, we'll lose their confidence or, or get exposed by any means. Last year, it ranked 41st out of 45 courses and putting difficulty, uh, inside five feet 33rd in putting from five to 15 feet and 41st out of 45 courses and putting difficulty from 15 feet plus. Um,

It is absolutely a golf course where players will need to make putts, but it's not a golf course where the putting features any form of a high degree of difficulty. It played far more like a putting contest last year than previous years under easier scoring conditions. And I think,

based on the weather that we're seeing this week, whether it looks like it's playing on the firmer and faster, windier side, I would give an added weight to approach play. If it looks like it's playing on the softer, easier, less windy side, I would give an added weight to putting. But at the end of the day,

Step one, keep the ball and play off the tee. Step two, either win this golf tournament with your putter or with your approach play. So let's dive into the model. Fun model this week. I should mention at the top, I haven't talked at all about the field model.

It's a really bad field this week. We got Tony Finau, Sahith Tagala, Sam Burns, who very impressive performance at the Open Championship. We'll see what he does on Sunday. If he hangs around the lead on Sunday, Sam Burns, we could be looking at him and Tony Finau, the co-favorites. God, what a disappointing performance.

open for Tony Finau I know that he got caught on the wrong side of the weather draw a little bit having to play in those Friday afternoon tough conditions but like so did Russell Henley there were so many guys I know like that that really hurt Rory McIlroy Tommy Fleetwood Tony Finau another one of those guys that was on the quote-unquote wrong side of the draw but I

Cash had 81 on Friday afternoon. I do think he bounces back this week in a big way at the three. I'm open. This is just the type of golf course that seems to always fit Tony Finau's game from T to green, but essentially at the top of the board,

We're looking at Tony Finau, Sahith Tagala, another disappointing miscut for Sahith Tagala. We were able to avoid that shock at the Open Championship. Again, I think he'll have a little bit of a different task at hand this week. I wouldn't be overly concerned, particularly in terms of the players that got the wrong side of the weather draw.

in terms of like how their play will translate to a golf course like TPC Twin Cities, even if they struggled pretty immensely at Troon. So the top 20 in my model, here we go. Number one, Keith Mitchell, who has just been hitting the ball incredibly well at the moment. He's got back-to-back top five finishes overall.

at TPC Twin Cities. He's developed into one of the best long iron players in this field. We already knew that he was a phenomenal driver of the ball. He raises his baseline on these water-heavy golf courses where you need to be long and

and straight. He's won before at the Honda Classic. He's, again, like, he rates out very highly in good drive percentage as well as distance. So he's long, he's straight, he's a great long iron player. Can he make enough putts to win this golf tournament? Because there are very few players in this field, by my numbers, basically Tony Finau,

is the only consistently better ball striker in this field right now than Keith Mitchell. It just comes down to whether you trust him to make some putts because you got to do at least...

At least what Tony Finau did in 2022, which Tony Finau ranked like 40th in putting. You've got to gain one to two and a half strokes putting at least. You can win this tournament without being an elite putter, but you've got to dominate from a ball striking perspective, which is what Tony Finau did and what Keith Mitchell absolutely has the potential to do. It's just...

Number two, Ben Griffin, who kind of gets it done in the opposite way that Keith Mitchell. He actually is a good ball striker. Ben Griffin has been hitting his irons particularly well at the moment. He's not even remotely out of the game.

as strong as a driver of the golf ball as a Keith Mitchell or a Tony Finau, but the way that Ben Griffin is hitting his irons and the way that he's putting right now, I think it's a good spot for him to keep playing well. He just makes a ton of birdies.

Number three, Tony Finau. Again, obviously for the same reasons that we liked Keith Mitchell, Tony Finau is going to check that box as well. Phenomenal course history. Again, I wouldn't read too much into him struggling at Royal Troon on the wrong side of the weather draw. I think Tony Finau is going to bounce back. I think he is absolutely live to...

to win this golf tournament in two out of the last three years. I like him just in a vacuum, like I like Tony Finau at this golf course more than I like Saheth and Sam Burns. I think that Tony Finau's elite approach play, he is putting the ball better. He is chipping and putting the ball better than he has in the past over the past couple of months. I think

I would, I I'm far more, uh, favorable to his course fit, uh, at this golf course than I would be to hit the gall or Sam Burns where, you know, if it was Sam Burns, more of a, a pure putting contest, I think this is just as much of a spike on approach as it is a spike with your putter. And I, I kind of have, you know, so half and Burns, they both rate out still highly for me. Like so half rates out fifth in my model, uh,

Sam Burns ranks out 12th in my model. We still see with Sahith, there's a lot of volatility there. And he has really struggled at this golf course. He's played here three times. He still failed to miss a cut. And we have still seen that Sahith can get going in the very wrong direction on some of these more demanding golf courses off the tee. He really struggled.

and got exposed from a ball striking perspective at Royal true. And again, very different tests this week, but we still have these large sample size, many instances where, yeah, sometimes a hit can play great on these golf courses with a high miss fairway penalty. And sometimes it could get going in the wrong direction as well. The guy who's number four, who, who,

I want to talk about a little bit because I think he is absolutely live to win this golf tournament. And he might just end up being really, really good. The kid out of Florida State, Luke Clanton, second at the John Deere Classic. If you look at Luke Clanton's

off the tee stats. I know you can't really win this golf tournament with your driver, but you could absolutely gain a significant advantage with your driver. Luke Clanton has been driving the ball beautifully at the moment. He's fourth in recent off the tee play. He's first in good drive percentage. So he is consistently putting himself in a position via his distance and his accuracy to hit the greens and green and regulation and attack this golf course. He's gained over three and a half points.

strokes off the tee in all four of his starts this year. That's very, very impressive stuff. He's quickly emerging as one of the best drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour in what we've seen out of him this summer. He's a great approach player as well, 13th in recent approach play.

He's putting okay too. Like he's, I definitely think his strength is far more with his ball striking, particularly his driver and long iron play than it is with his putter, but he's actually putted. Okay. So far on the PGA tour to start his career second in this field in birdie or better percentage. He just finished runner up at the John Deere classes, which again, I think is more of an easier golf course. It's less of a demanding T to green golf course, but,

I think the fact that this one's a little bit harder in place is a little bit more emphasis on ball striking and overall approach play and being able to drive the ball well.

I think that plays right into Clinton's hands, right? He's coming off a 37th at the ISCO where he gained a whopping 6.4 off the tee. He's neutral on approach, lost 2.3 around the green, lost .9 putting. So in the four starts this year, Clinton's gone 41st at Pinehurst, 10th at the Rocket Mortgage, 2nd at the John Deere, 37th at the ISCO. Backgrass birdie fest. He's gained over 5.5 strokes, ball striking in all four starts this

He's a flusher, and he has the complete and total ball-striking profile to go out and win this tournament. I guess the biggest concern is that he's never played this golf course before, but this is a very...

un-nuanced track. I don't think that you need a great deal of experience at this golf course to figure it out pretty quickly, particularly on the greens. So Luke Clinton, absolutely in the mix for me in terms of an early lean. I tend to wait a little bit longer instead of buying early on some of these younger, unproven guys. But depending on the number here,

This is just a perfect marriage of course fit and recent form for Luke Clinton. And I, I think he's going to show up this week and keep playing some really, really good golf.

Number five, Sahit the goal we talked about. Still a great opportunity for a bounce-back spot for him. I just prefer Finau at the top if we're going in that direction. Number six, Keegan Bradley. Solid golf course for Keegan, right? Still a flusher of the ball. I think he will be pretty motivated to keep playing some pretty solid, strong golf over the summer and potentially try and –

qualify himself for his Ryder Cup team, although I'd be fairly surprised if he does that, to be honest with you. Maverick McNeely, number seven. Again, he's far more of the Ben Griffin mold where he is more likely to win this golf tournament with his putter than he is the ball striking, but I think you always want to give Maverick McNeely a look on some of these TPC-style golf courses he's

played well at TPC deer run in the past, you know, rocket mortgage, a lot of these bent grass golf courses over the summer. I'd absolutely think that he can get hot and win this tournament with his putter. Number eight, Jonathan Vegas, who I think will be a bet for me. And it's kind of the same concerns about Keith Mitchell, right? Is can he make enough putts to compete in this golf tournament? But I think you're getting,

in Jonathan Vegas, a very poor man's Tony Finau and Keith Mitchell, where he's just flushing the ball right now. And he's got a second already at the 3M Open. He's played well at this golf course in the past. I bet him that year that he finished runner-up at the 3M Open, and I see no reason to not keep betting Johnny Vegas. I love him at this golf course. You play Johnny Vegas on water-heavy pitches.

TPC golf courses. He ranks fifth off the tee in recent off the tee play third and good drive percentage. So I know that Vegas is thought of as a pure bomber. He's pretty damn straight for as long as he hits the golf ball 13th off the tee on golf courses with a ton of water danger. He's a wonderful approach player as well. 18th and recent approach play third in proximity from one 75 to 200 yards off

uh, 39th and proximity, 200 yards plus top 30 and birdie or better percentage top 30 on water, heavy golf courses, top 30 on TPC style golf courses. Um,

He's got some strong finishes at the John Deere Classic as well. He's got some strong finishes at PGA National as well as coming off a 20th at the John Deere Classic where he gained 4.9 off the tee, 2.8 on approach, 2.1 around the green. So he gained 10 strokes from tee to green. The off the tee got better for him. He's now gained over seven strokes, ball striking and back-to-back starts overall.

Great course fit, playing great right now, hitting the ball tremendously off the tee. Same deal with Keith Mitchell. Can he make enough putts to win this golf tournament? He actually spiked with the putter pretty recently at the Canadian Open, so I think that he is absolutely live to do so. Johnny Vegas, Keith Mitchell, Tony Finau, I think you can kind of get a

a very similar profile at, at all differing prices. And I'm, I'm far more likely to take the bargain version of that as a bet in, in Johnny Vegas, nine Austin Eckroad is another really good golf course for Austin Eckroad. He won at PGA national 10, Michael Thorpe, George, and, um,

Pretty much, he hasn't been striking the ball quite as well as Luke Clanton. I would be just as excited as Michael Thorpe-Jordson as I am about Luke Clanton. He's every bit as good, could be better. He was actually even better at Stanford. Another guy that he's playing right now at the Barracuda. He's playing okay so far at the Barracuda, but another look for me. I think that both those guys...

Clanton and Thorpe-Jordson, I think these are the golf courses to play them on. These are the golf courses that are far more similar to college golf. I just think that the learning curve on the PGA Tour right now is not what it used to be. I think these guys can go out and win pretty quickly. Number 11, Andrew Novak.

who I really like this week in terms of a guy that's played some phenomenal golf this year. He's played great at PGA National this year. He's played great at TBC Deer Run this year. He's got five top 15 finishes already this year. And what does Andrew Novak do? Well, he keeps the ball in play off the tee, and he spikes both with his approach play and his putter. I think Andrew Novak is a wonderful look this week as well. 12, Sam Burns. I think he'll be pretty popular coming off the Open Championship. Wouldn't even be shocked

to see a WD if he goes out and wins the thing or even contends. You know, Wade in the day on Sunday. 13, Tom Hoagie, great approach player. He can spike with that aspect of his game. 14, Sam Ryder, going to do more of the spiking with his putter. 15, Doug Gimm. 16, Kevin Yu, who again, kind of a bargain bin player.

Kevin Mitchell type, right? Where he is just absolutely flushing the ball. He's played great at these types of golf courses. His two best finishes of the year are at TPCD or run and PGA national. That's exactly what I'm looking for. Can he make enough putts to keep up in this golf tournament? That will be the age old question for him. Number 17, Daniel Berger, who I just don't know. Like he's

played so well at these types of golf courses in the past. He's been great at TPC Deer Run. He's got a 15th at TPC Twin Cities.

Um, he's played great at PGA national, right? He's played great at TPC Southland, these water heavy golf courses where you got to keep the ball and play off the tee spike with your approach spike with your putter. That's Daniel burgers jam, but the guy just withdrew at the Barracuda. So I'm not sure. I love the golf course fit for burger. I feel like it is going to come for him at some point this year, but he just hasn't given us enough concrete evidence to,

that he's back to being anything close to the player that he once was. I do love this golf course fit for him. Maybe worth taking a flyer. 18 Carson Young, 19 Dylan Wu, 20 Billy Horschel. So again, I think the early leans for me, probably not going to end up betting Tony Fina, although I do like him as a DFS play far more than a, a Thagala or a Sam Burns at the top.

Keith Mitchell, Luke Clanton, Johnny Vegas, Andrew Novak. I think those are the guys I'm likely swimming around when odds drop on Monday morning. So that will do it for our 3M Open Preview.

Enjoy the golf today. I think this has the potential to be a wildly entertaining and fun round. When I checked on the scores this morning before I went to go record the podcast, it looks like it was a pretty tough wind direction. Some of the early morning guys were struggling out there in the wind. We'll see if it dies down later, but I think regardless of whether it plays, you know,

a little bit easier in the afternoon than a place in the morning. It is still this golf course, just the way that it's playing right now in the wind. Uh, it's going to provide, I think an awesome arena for some major championship golf this afternoon.

Hopefully Russell Henley can be that guy for us. You can't ask for much more for a 170 to one golfer heading into the final round of a major with a 10% win probability. Is he going to do it? Probably not. It's still Russell Henley at the end of the day. Do I believe that he has a legitimate shot? Is it in the range of outcomes?

I think so. I think it's in the range of outcomes. But Russell Henley, Scotty Scheffler, John Rahm, Sepp Strzoka, Shane Lowry, those are the guys we'll be cheering on if you have any rooting interest in my DraftKings lineups this week. We've got some fun ones to watch this afternoon. So again, enjoy the golf this Sunday, and we will be back on this podcast feed with a very fun podcast.

Got a couple great guest lines up. A very fun, rousing Open Championship recap. I'm sure we'll have a lot to talk about. We'll do some final year-end major championship grades, react to what we saw on Sunday, and everything in between. So again, enjoy the golf this weekend. Thanks for all the support this week. I know that I got a lot of kind messages from people

a lot of the RPS subscribers and a lot of the folks that consumed all the free content that we got some runners this week, the player pool, the player pool did quite well for us. And so hopefully we can finish it off with a bang, have one of those good Sundays for us. And if not,

hopefully at least get some entertaining golf. So until then, best of luck with your bets this afternoon. Enjoy the final round of the Open Championship, our last round of major championship golf in nine months. Enjoy it, cherish it, and we will see you back on this podcast feed tomorrow.

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