2022 WM Phoenix Open with Joe Idone
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Okay. Inside golf podcast, Andy Lack, um, waste management, Phoenix open with Joey Doney. I am slightly under the weather this week, but we were able to power through. I love talking to Joe. One of the best guys you will ever meet can confirm.

Want to give a quick shout out to Steve C at DFS NASCAR guy who won a ton of money playing DraftKings this week. Listener of the show. Want to get better at giving shout outs to all the listeners that win money going forward. We want some money to shout out Tom Hoagie, just a straight flusher. And obviously the reason why myself and many others are

bet him was because the stats were showing that. But you really saw on Sunday, I was so blown away by how good his ball striking was, how consistent it was. Center of the clubface every time, three-yard draw. So shout out all the hoagie backers. That one was fun. We did go back-to-back at Pebble. So let's try and go back-to-back at Phoenix. Without further ado, let's bring in Joe.

Okay, Joey Doni is here. Torpex on Twitter. Co-host of the Preferred Lines podcast. My colleague over at Odds Checker. Great golfer. I can attest to this. Even better person. Joe, my man. How are we today, buddy?

I'm great, man. My favorite part of the info was great golfer because you were with me for my second best round ever. You clearly haven't been checking my scores on the gin app lately as I've struggled to break like 88. But I'm thrilled to be here and talk about one of my favorite events of the year with you, my friend.

I didn't think about this until this afternoon, but I assume you were like me and hit Brooks last year because I know you're a Brooks guy.

Yeah, was one of my more. So my favorite Brooks ticket ever was Aaron Hills. This was my second favorite. So yeah, I think there were a lot of people on him. It was a fun community win. The way that he won was super exciting. And we see theatrics and electric finishes quite often here at the waste management. So yeah.

Yes, it was thrilling. I've actually had a really good run here. I had Hideki, I had Ricky, I had Webb, I had Brooks. So I think I've got four out of the last five winners at this event. So I feel like I've got a pretty good, pretty good pulse on it. How do you feel?

Yeah, you know, it's funny. I actually, I wasn't part of the community yet. I was a guy with like 100 Twitter followers just listening to Pat Mayo every week. I think my first podcast episode was like a month later at the match play. But I do remember it was one of my first months being on Twitter. And I do remember that it was...

a popular pick. Of course, I was bummed about the Xander Shoffley of it all. It was a great week. It was a great Sunday. I feel like this tournament, and we'll talk about the course in a second, but I feel like this course does such a good job of producing

Sunday finishes because there's so many great risk award holes and the course really seems to firm up over the weekend. So it almost seems like on Thursday and Friday, the course plays pretty easy. And then we get to Sunday and it's like guys are ejecting left and right. Yes. So there's water, there is risk reward. There are

awkward situations off the tee where you can spray one and be 100% fine and you can spray one and be 100% fucked, which obviously leads to a lot more fun. And like the factor that like,

you got to throw into this thing right is the atmosphere because we see people melt and i think that's why a lot of times um i have here i'm looking right now on my other screen at my tournament notes that i have like from every year and every year i'm putting chasers guys can chase look for people to come from behind on sunday like three straight years because

It's hard to hold a lead and you throw in the atmosphere and the risk reward and a ton of people like, you know, the added pressure of the stadium on 16 and then you get to 17. So it is an awesome event. Really like this course, really like where the scoring typically winning score ends up in that 15 to 20 range, which I love. So really looking forward to this event and just getting out of the course rotation mess that we've been in.

Oh, yeah. Me too. I'm so glad that we're done with that. We got a great stretch coming up because we go here and then Riviera and then I think it's Honda players. And before you know it, we'll be at the Masters. So this seems like this is the last football week. I hope that we'll get some diehard football guys coming over to play.

to golf lands going forward after, after football season is done. So I I'm super excited for this week. I've talked about the course a bunch, Joe, you already talked about it a little bit, but before we get into the odds board, anything else that you want to touch on in terms of the course and things you're looking at this week, uh, before we get to talking about some of the guys.

Yeah, it's one of those spots where I think, and I'm a course history guy, but it's one of those spots where I think it sticks a little bit more. I'm not sure who said it, but I think it's third on the list. I'm not sure how they exactly derive these stats, but in terms of sticky course history, it was like Augusta, it was Sony, I believe, and then this place. So we see guys repeatedly come back here with a good bit of success.

It's an approach course, which to me isn't like all that surprising. I know you mentioned sort of around the green not being all that important, but around the green can lose it for you like it did for Xander last year, right? So it always plays a factor when you're not spot on.

I mentioned it's a chaser's place, ton of risk reward. You've got to play those par fives on the back, at least two under par, you know, a little bit of luck of the draw with, with sort of desert golf. And the biggest X factor for me is guys who can really handle and are comfortable in that environment. You know, we'll, we'll talk, we'll talk a little bit about guys that we like. I'm interested to see if any of the guys who've played well, the last couple of weeks come up.

All right. I don't really have a ton to add, so let's dive right in, man. I'm looking at the guys who are 25 and under on DraftKings, but feel free to throw out any numbers that you want, Joe. And I would encourage everyone to check out the Odds Checker Golf Grid, which does the best job at making that process very easy to navigate when shopping numbers.

but DraftKings has Jon Rahm at 6-1, and I pulled these up from this morning, so some of these might have moved just a little bit, but I had Jon Rahm at 6-1, Justin Thomas at 10-1, Hideki at 14, Hovland at 16, and I had

Patrick Canley at 16, Jordan Spieth at 16, Xander at 20, Scotty Scheffler at 22, Berger at 25. And then there's a little bit of a drop off after that. So let's kind of talk about those 30 and under guys. Who has your attention? A couple of guys. I like a little bit of Justin Thomas this week. I have not bet him yet, but I do like the way that he sort of trends. Look, I can't

man, this is probably going to burn me, but I cannot justify John Rahm at seven to one. I think Patrick Cantlay is, is also overvalued right now. I think he's 16 to one here. I think it was 12 to one on the book that I was looking at earlier. I,

They just aren't. They're not winning at a Tiger Woods-esque clip for you to sort of go at those low numbers. I think Thomas at double the number of Rahm makes a lot of sense. You look at a guy who was, you know, let's take two weeks ago at Torrey, for example. They were basically both tied after two days and the favorites to win. And they were just about even odds. Like Rahm was a slight favorite over Thomas after Friday at Torrey.

But he wasn't double, you know, it's not like Justin Thomas was double the price of Rahm at that point. So I have interest in him. I kind of wanted your take on Spieth, right? Because I listened actually to your podcast.

take a little bit on your inside golf podcast that came out yesterday or the day before on the tournament preview. And he's the new swing, right? It's neurotic. It's always neurotic. It's unsettling to sort of watch on TV. I kind of got the feeling that, so I was watching when he was on the eighth hole and he was like over the cliff. It's something about that shot to me, like,

Cause it put it. All right. So he was thinking so much before every shot and something about that shot with it, just being hit, hit the ball on one end of the shoulder. And on the other end was like death, right?

that I think it may have like mentally like freed him of like some evil spirits. I'm hoping where he just stepped behind the ball, did it to his routine and like hit it, ended up making par. And then he kind of went on a run right after that. So I don't know, you know, he's a, he's a shot maker versus like trying to make shots, I think. So I'd love to see him get away from that. I think a little bit of confidence last week where he played great on approach and

Number two on approach at this course behind only Hideki, whose numbers are otherworldly at TPC Phoenix. So where do you sit on Spieth? I agree with you. I thought watching Spieth yesterday was...

was one of the weirder experiences I've ever had because you watch him next to Tom Hoagie, who Tom Hoagie hits it in the center of the club face every single time. It is a three-yard draw on command, right? Tom Hoagie is a straight flusher. This is the first time I've ever sat down and locked into Tom Hoagie. Man, he hits the ball so well, and he makes it look so easy. And then you have Spieth over here,

who nothing looks right. He doesn't look comfortable. He's arguing with Greller. He's doing these weird, deliberate pre-shot routines that aren't always consistent. Like sometimes he'll have a pre-shot routine for one tee shot and then it'll change a little bit on the next tee shot. And yet he had one of the best approach rounds on Saturday, uh,

of anyone of the season, like of the entire year. He gained almost six strokes on approach. So where I kind of net out with Spieth, not for me from a betting perspective. I mean, he is 16 to one right now in a really good field. He was 23 to one last week in a field of

really no one. I like a couple guys a little bit better, but I would go to him in DraftKings, I think, if the price and ownership is right, because I just think that I probably have to do a better job

at throwing the eye test out the window with this one guy, because this is what happened to him last year. Like I talked about in my preview, the one thing that you can't do at TPC Scottsdale is hit the ball in the desert. That is the one thing that you can't do. And what did Jordan Spieth do last year? He hit the ball in the desert. And

And he almost won. I know. Even at yesterday at Pebble, Andy, which was like an ugly round, like he was missing left. He was flaring it off the tee, right? He was duck hooking it. He was basically chunking it like a number of times, but he still ends up with like,

eight really good looks for birdie in a round and he like he made five of them and he missed three others right on the lip so he's still somehow by basically not seemingly striking it well ends up giving himself a lot of opportunities to score and he just plays well here it was nice to see him kind of get it back going this seems to be a spot where he's he's had a little bit of comfort I know there's two missed cuts in there but there's also three top tens in the last five years so

I saw a 20s, him sitting right there next to Xander. I'm sure you would prefer Xander in that case. I have some question marks around him and just liked what I saw to Spieth.

I have some question marks around Xander too. I'll be, I'm not betting Xander this week, but I love how little chatter it seems there is around Xander. Watch out because he's at the best in those situation. Maybe there is, I haven't listened to anything or spent a ton of time on Twitter today. I'm just speaking through the echo chamber of my various golf group chats, but he may have a little forgotten elite potential this week. My issue is Xander,

I feel like people see a two next to Xander and they think that is now a fair number. As the biggest Xander fan there is, I still don't think that's a great number on him based on his resume. I really don't in this field. And I love Xander more than anyone else. I don't understand why he is lower than guys like Sam Burns.

Yeah, there's I would put a big question mark around basically betting any guy at any event sub like 16 to one unless they're on an incredible run at a course that they love. It's all hard to justify. The one guy that I've seen numbers got to go anywhere from 14 and I even saw 20 earlier.

is Hovland like to me Vic is playing much better than Justin Thomas right now I think you could argue that he's playing equally well if not better than Patrick Cantlay and maybe just as good as Rom right now I mean he's on an absolute tear and no no real course history here to speak of except I believe he played it when he was an amateur and played pretty well but

Yeah, I mean, he's coming over. I expect him to do what he always does and be a great driver of the ball, which is going to put him in a lot of positions to make a lot of birdies.

Do you think you'd be able to get there sub 20 with him? I could do 18. I would prefer him at 18 over Spieth or Xander. Okay. And DraftKings, you'd probably say, are you skipping Rom and JT and starting with that Hovland? Are you starting with that Hovland or are you going to play Rom and JT and DraftKings?

I will not be playing Rahm. I will probably play some Justin Thomas just because I think Rahm and Cantlay eat up most of it there. But I don't mind going to Hovland there as well and then kind of going up. I do really like Sam Burns. You mentioned him earlier. I think that he sets up great for you. I think you look at the comps and maybe he's a little bit forgotten about this week, but there was a 35-1 this morning and that was the first bet I made.

Okay, so you are not, I'm berating you with questions right now. You are not parlaying John Rahm or Justin Thomas with Rams or Bengals money line. No chance. No chance. Okay, me neither. The one guy we didn't talk about before we got into Burns that I want to talk about who's in this range is, I bet Scotty Scheffler at 29 to 1. Now,

He's 22 on DraftKings. I think you can shop around. There was a 33 that I missed. I'm fine with him at 29. I think there's some 28s and some 29s and maybe some 30s out there. Statistically, it's a fine case. It's not an incredible case. It's a good case. I just have such...

vivid memories, Joe, of following him at the Ryder Cup. And we touched on this a little bit at the top. You touched on it. And I talked about a little in my Sunday preview too. But just seeing how much he thrived in that atmosphere, the way that he just kicked Rom's ass in that Sunday's single match that Europe absolutely needed does not get talked about enough.

And my takeaway from watching him, I was like, this guy is not afraid. He's taking a ton of aggressive lines off the tee. And I

I think this is a course that benefits that I've heard players say before, like this is a really, really easy course to shoot par on. Like you can take a bunch of irons off the sea. It's a really, really easy 71. But if you want to shoot 64 or 65 here, you really have to take some chances. You really have to go for it. And I just think Scheffler, uh,

I think Scheffler plays aggressively. I don't really know how to quantify that, but just watching him, he hits a lot of drivers off the tee, maybe when he shouldn't. And I just, I think it's a good number for him, a good course. He finished seventh here last year. So I'm in on Scheffler. Yeah, I don't mind it at all. 29 to 30, I think is a great number there on Scottie. I didn't personally take it. So

You're right. Total driving. He's going to excel on a course like this where, where the driving distance times accuracy is going to present you more opportunities for birdie. I worry that he's still seemingly over the course of four days has that one round that's like even or plus one that tends to kill him because he can go out there and shoot eight, nine under and around, I guess the one, you know, in the, in the interest of sort of playing the opposite side of the coin, the Ryder cup, right?

That situation, as much as the crowd and the environment was ruckus, it was really, I think at that point, a nothing to lose and very stress-free. And let's go out here and let's see if David can slay Goliath type of deal. There was no expectations. There was no weight on his shoulder. He was able to feed off of the home crowd who was all rooting for him and sort of step on the gas when he had a little bit of momentum.

When he steps back onto the PGA Tour, there is a little bit of pressure on him, right? Almost as much as anybody at this point. Everybody's kind of waiting for this breakthrough. So I don't think there's as much of a...

I don't have anything to lose mentality when it comes to this. I don't know if that's going to be a negative or a positive for him, but definitely I think the fan environment is something that can help them. I just worry that, you know, we've seen sort of the monkey grow bigger and bigger on players back who tend to struggle with closing the deal on Sundays. And I'd like to see him get it done to sort of get that, get over the hump there. But I have some concerns about him in that regard.

That's a really good rebuttal. I think you're right about that in the sense that, and it's not like Scheffler has been a Sunday killer, right? He'll go out and shoot 59 at TPC Boston on Friday when DJ's already 10 strokes ahead of him, right? And when he's gotten into the mix before at the Houston Open, I remember, he hasn't been

great on Sundays, right? Now, I'm always willing to forgive that in a young player. We saw Sam Burns have four or five Sundays and Saturdays in a row where he was really bad, and then he just figured it out. But I agree with you. I think with Scheffler, like,

he is, I don't know, would you give him the title right now? It's him or Zala Torres, right? His best player. I guess you could throw Cam Tringali into that mix, but best player on tour without a win in terms of talent. I think it's definitely Scotty. I think his, his talent level in his career will, will exceed a little bit as Alatorre. I think already being on the Ryder cup, it's just going to accelerate that for him.

And it's a weird, like, it's a weird thing, man. Like, like pressure and sort of coming through in the clutch is, I don't know if it's a trait that you just have or it's learned or there's a little bit of luck involved, but I just always draw back on like my days of like playing sports and like you, you draw up a basketball play and you have the last shot. Right.

That goes in. You don't know what's going to happen the first time you take it, right? You're on the free throw line that goes in the first time you do it all of a sudden. Now, every game you have this confidence, every, all your teammates are looking at you like you're the guy that's going to close this game, but you miss the first one or two and you start to internally question yourself. And you're like, maybe let's let him take the final shot. You know what I mean? So it's, it's, you just, the, the,

In a clutch like that, it's sort of a weird thing that can, you just need a breakthrough. Like you said with Burns, once you get that monkey off your back, you learn how it's done. The next one seems to come a lot easier. Well, let's go right into Burns because I want to hear your case for Burns because I don't, I haven't made a move yet. I've never really been like part of that gang with Burns. I've never, I think he's really good.

I think him and Hovland are maybe a little bit overvalued right now based on what people think of them versus who they are. But at the same time, it's hard to say that because Burns is 30 plus. And I think that is definitely a fair number on him. So I understand it. Are you, have you made that move?

Yes. I bet him. It was the first number I bet. I thought that the number was just a little bit of inflated. So it was really before I did a whole lot of digging, to be honest with you, Andy, it was just a number that stuck out to me there at 35. So I took it and it looks like it has gone down a little bit since the miscut at the farmers is a little bit concerning. He lost strokes at the century before that, which isn't good on approach. Uh, but he was on such a fat and tastic run coming into that. I like a lot of the, um,

I guess you could say course comparisons here. I think Craig ranch, he finished second, which is also a wise cough TPC course. I like how he played at the summit club. I like how he's played at Innisbrook really fast greens, really demanding off the tee where he can sort of, you know, step on the gas in terms of his approach and his iron play, which was really good. And I think his confidence has, has come a long way since then. So yeah,

I just think it's a good number at a good spot that sets up nicely for him. I believe he was first round leader here last year as well. So coming back to a spot where he has had a little bit of success now that he's got a couple of trophies on the mantle should should set him up better.

You know, it's a, it's an interesting range because you have Brooks right here who I want to talk to you about. We have female right here. We have a Louie. We have web. We have guys like Seamus power and Bubba Watson making an appearance who is great at Saudi last week and has been awesome at this course. I think we should probably start with Brooks though. I, I want to hear your take because I, I have a little bit of a take too, but I, I let you go first.

I'm still formulating this take on Brooks, so I'm not totally set on it yet. I have a lot of bias with Brooks, as anyone who follows me knows, is from a rooting interest standpoint. I have a lot of concerns right now with his game.

I don't love the equipment move to Strix on. I don't think that that's benefited him from a strokes game perspective yet. Now that said, he was terrible coming into this event last year, but it's a lot easier to stomach. I believe I had 54 to one than it is a 30 to one.

Yeah. Look what he did last year was incredible. He was six back after the front nine, six back. He erased that deficit. And the fact that he got to stand next to James Hahn and basically melt him, who was the leader, uh,

was huge for him. And a guy like Brooks who, like, I feel like he fuels the gas tank with intimidation. And the fact that I think he felt that working sort of gassed him up, right? As soon as he felt Han sort of sliding, he stepped on it further and was like, I'm going for the jugular here. And then they obviously had that moment on 15 where Han hooked it in the water. Well,

Brooks ripped a three iron to 20 feet. And that was pretty much ball game, but it's still all this said, it took a pretty miraculous chip in on 17 that he may go there and hit a hundred balls and make one of them from that spot. Like that was a pretty crazy, um,

the fact that that went in, it also took Xander sort of not coming through down the stretch and getting up and down there as well. So there were a lot of factors that are going to be tough to repeat, but the ball striking numbers right now are very concerning for me with Brooks. Yeah. I have kind of a working theory with Brooks and I talked about this a little bit on the Sunday show, but I do think that when,

The reason why this is one of the only tournaments that he's been really good at outside of the majors is because this is the one tournament where it is pure atmosphere and energy, and it keeps him engaged. And he's talked about this a little bit before, where I think he gets bored with some of the PGA Tour setups and some of the tournaments that aren't major champions.

And I think he goes to a place like this and he's able to feed off the atmosphere to me with Brooks. And it's always been a little bit less about the motivation and more about, as you kind of mentioned, I think he's just struggling with his swing right now.

Yeah.

you know, I, I, I watched him, I test wise and it just didn't look good. And I said, I don't care. It's Brooks 30. He's so much talented than half the guys below him. And you know, it's kind of, we're in this predicament now this year, because it's like the reason I didn't play Jordan Spieth last week at a course that Jordan Spieth loves is because I don't care about the

course history, my eyes are telling me that Jordan Spieth is not comfortable over the golf ball right now. And that's all my eyes have told me dating back to the match where I thought he looked terrible and I have no idea how he won that thing. So it's tough because I don't think he's fully comfortable with this swing right now, but of course, can he go out and win in Phoenix with no form? He did it last year. He did it, but-

I think there were more signs to last year coming in. Plus just the bigger number, right? Look one top 25 in his last 10 starts. I'm looking at here. The approach numbers. I'm not sure when exactly the switch over on equipment and ball happened for him, but I, you know, he took the break after the BMW where he didn't make the next leg of the FedEx cup playoffs and he's gained on a stroke.

on approach once since then. It hasn't been good. And that was at the Century, which is wide open, which gave him the forgiveness off the tee to, I think, help on that approach numbers a little bit. So

It hasn't been good. He's in a really bad stretch right now. I think it was a mistake going to Strixen. I'm not sure what the check was, but he was always a guy that was very forthright and saying that he always had this take that guys who get locked into these equipment deals are making big mistakes, and I'd rather be independent, and I'd rather play my Nike 3-iron and my tailor-made driver.

and my, I forget, I think he did have Strix and Irons, but he had all different clubs, right? His entire bag was totally different. So yeah, I think that that move is going to take some time for him to kind of work it out. And I don't know that we've seen any positive results yet that would get me real fired up about a 30 to one. So who's the pivot in this range then? Like who, who's the guy in this, I guess, 30 to we can open it up to like the sixties and seventies. Like

where are you going instead? Okay. So I have some interest in Louie. Obviously a lot of question marks there, but I think that that number right now at 40 to one is a nice number. I also think I kind of like Corey Connors here. So we've seen guys who have really struggled with putting on occasion and

breakthrough here we've seen guys play well um often here hideki brooks kyle stanley a lot of guys have have sort of won here even webb when he was not a good putter sure um was doing well here fee now had the run before the ultimate collapse here so i think this could be a really good spot for him to kind of lean on his ball striking which what do all those other guys do really well right fee now

Stanley, Brooks, Hideki, they're all really good ball strikers. So I think that this could be a spot that we potentially see him pop. But yeah, the other names there, I really wanted to bet Bubba here. So when I went on with Rick and we did sort of the breakthrough players, I had this weird take that I wasn't going to talk about like new players. I was going to go through like, who are the old guys that are going to re-breakthrough? And like Bubba was one of the guys that I was really excited about.

And I'm kind of shocked to see the number at 40 to one. His DraftKings price is outrageous this week, but I do expect him to play well. I don't think that he'll win. I would love to be there if it was like a 65. Yeah, that makes sense to me. I think the second place finish in Saudi just screws everything because if he doesn't play well in Saudi,

then you have the narrative of, Oh, we haven't seen Bubba on the PGA tour since I think like the Northern trust. Right. So then you get the questions about rust. I forgot to ask, I'm going to backtrack for one second because I forgot to ask you a question of about a guy that was kind of in the high twenties, mid thirties. What's your buy number on burger. Assuming that we get zero, I think it's a safe assumption that we are going to get zero information back.

until tournament starts about his injury. If we get information, I view it as a bonus. But if there's anything I've learned about the way the PGA tour is covered, sometimes I'm not expecting any information. I'm curious as like, what's the number for you that you would buy an hamburger?

North of 30, just north of 30. I'm laughing because how can we not get accurate information on this? Like it's, it's astounding to me that we can't have someone there who would understand that he was dealing with an injury leading into the week and just ask the question, is he going to give you an honest answer? I don't know, Andy, but you, you gotta ask. Yeah.

It's incredible. Like if Cam Tringale was in the field this week after sort of what his situation was last week with the inability to lay down, you've got to ask the question. It's, it's, I hope that he will get in the interview room and someone will speak to him about it. And he'll answer kind of candidly on what is going on. But the fact that we don't have a single reporter in that room is,

that can, they can pose a relative question that everyone wants to know is, is still wild to me. Yeah. What's your by number on him? I was going to say 35. I think, and also like in DraftKings, if he's sub 8%, like I'm there. I, I, I,

I think he's already... I think you probably find 33s right now. But yeah, I think 35 plus. My cards, I'm kind of like already at my exposure. But yeah, I think 35 and above, I would probably buy in on Berger. I want to loop back to Connors because I bet Corey Connors at... I found a 66 to 1 on him. Yeah, I do endorse him at 50 though. But 17th last year, as you said...

He's just so damn accurate off the tee, such a good driver of the ball. And I think this is like the perfect length course for him. He's going to have a ton of mid to short irons. Um, he finished top five at the players last year, another risk reward TPC course with very similar greens and, um,

you know, he's coming off to miss cuts in a row. So he's kind of drifted a little bit. The spotlight is off him and I don't really care that he missed the cut at Torrey Pines. I thought that was always kind of going to be an uphill battle for him and he still hit the ball. Well, just couldn't putt. So Connors is somebody that's I love this week, both in DraftKings and betting. The only other guy that I was thinking about is,

I thought Abe at 55-1 was a little interesting to me. And Matt Fitzpatrick played... As somebody who bet Matt Fitzpatrick last week, he was really good. He played really well, and he was sneaking up that leaderboard as the week went on. I know, and he was just parring. He was going on nine whole stretches where it was all pars, and I was hoping to see some birdies in there. But yeah, it was nice to see him. Fitzpatrick is always...

He's always a conundrum when you're going to run sort of stat models and stuff like that, because not all of his really good finishes are factored in there. You know, coming off the European tour, I think he's won once or twice and has a couple of seconds as well. So all that data is not available, which would obviously, if he's finishing second is going to inflate those numbers quite a bit. I like what you said about Connors is there. So I had this theory that, um,

And I don't know if this is true and you're a really, really good golfer and you understand golf courses as much as anybody. So when the greens are really lightning fast, which I think they typically are here, these are some of the faster ones that you will see, especially like 17, like you'll can see guys nearly put it off.

off the green and into the water when it's in that back left corner there. I feel like when they're really, really fast rolling it like a 13, it helps worse putters. And that doesn't really make a whole lot of sense, but when they're slow, you can get guys like that are just kind of point and shoot and

And when they're really fast, it's just more about touch and sort of lagging it up there close. And they're less focused on maybe hitting the putt and they're more focused on getting the speed right. So I feel like it kind of tends to help guys like Bubba is never really a good putter, but would always have great putting at Augusta when he played there because he was able to just kind of be creative and get the speed right.

but you put them on a place that where greens are rolling at like a 10 and it's, you know, you've got to make every 10 footer and he struggles with that. Do you have any, where do you stand there?

Oh, Joe, this is a whole separate podcast. I've gone back and forth on this like a hundred times. But yeah, I agree with you for the most part. There are examples of both, right? Like there are, you know, you could say stuff. I mean, I look at what is the opposite of fast and true greens, POA greens, right? And POA have...

a ton of variance on them. It's more of an inconsistent surface, right? And so you could say about Poe Green, someone like Kevin Kisner hates Poe because he's like, well, I lose a little bit of my advantage because I'm really good at green.

reading greens and I'm really good at getting the speed right. And on POA, it just feels like I'm putting on Mars a little bit sometimes, but you put me on true Bermuda greens and that's where I have my biggest advantage. Then there's the other side of that coin too, where you have guys like Brant Snedeker say, hey, well, I think about

poa differently i'm a really confident poer so i'm good on the surface when guys who aren't confident aren't and it's like the same thing with with fast greens too like there's so many examples of hideki matsuyama winning the masters not as a great putter and then you talk to someone like ben crenshaw and he's like this is the place where i have the biggest advantage it is a rabbit hole that i don't know if you have time for right now but we can do it we can do it yeah we could do it i have

tons of takes on this. It's a fascinating thing to think about. And I think you're right for the most part. I think these greens are really, really fast. They're true and they're not a per Bermuda. They're overseed exactly like we see at PGA West. We see similar ones at TBC Sawgrass and we do as well at Innisbrook. Yeah.

Sorry. That was all I had on the greens. I guess we'll just go to this kind of like, now we get into Hoagie, Aaron Wise, Fowler, Homa, Woodlands. Who else are we not talking about in this range as we move upward before we get to some of the long shots?

I like a little Aaron Wise this week. I do see a 90-1, which I think is a very valid number. I'm sort of going to be out on Hoagie and List. Interesting, though, that I haven't taken in a lot. Obviously, we're at Monday in the week. But Taylor Gooch is 66-1, and he was basically up there in a field like –

the century, the tournament of champions at 30 to one, you know, and all these guys were there. Granted the field, there wasn't nearly as many guys, but I feel like he could be a little forgotten about after just a horrible stretch there at the Amex where you just play terrible at a spot that he should have played well. So, you know, Fowler's obviously in here, he's around like 80 to one, he's going to garner some guys, but

um my next bet sort of on the board and i don't know if i'm skipping too far here but i love gary woodland and i think you do too i was always going to bet woodland here so i'm not going to shy away from triple digits yeah he he he basically did just enough for me at tory pines to kind of reel me back in he gained 2.8 on approach

in two rounds at the South course. He's won at the Valspar on these overseeded greens. Ninth at the CJ Cup. He's won here, good at TPC Summerlin. So he's got that kind of desert altitude TPC risk reward course resume. Awesome on par fives. Yeah, you don't have to twist my arm with Woodland. I bet Wise too. I bet Wise at 100 to 1.

And I haven't done the best job so far of describing where I went this week with my card. I kind of zagged a little bit. And Scheffler is the only guy I have below 50 to one. And then we'll get to some of these long shots. I have like five guys over 100. And I know that sounds very strange in an event that is typically won by good players. But

I think there are some really good options down here at some really good odds that I legitimately believe can win. And I do think Aaron Wise is one of them. He great at TPC Summerlin, contended at the Summit Club. There's going to be weeks coming up. Trust me on this one, Joe. They've already happened where Aaron Wise is 35 to 1 and people are all over it.

I'd rather take a chance on him on the 100 to one weeks because I actually think his game sets up better for some of the courses that attract really good fields. Like you look at what he's done, top 10 at Wells Fargo, top 10 at Memorial, top five at CJ Cup, 17th at the PGA Championship. Like these are all really, really good fields. So I do actually think he's good enough to win in a field like this, believe it or not.

Yeah. You know what? I kind of like that strategy this week. Look, it's not what I think you probably last week you would have thought that you would end up with that type of card, but it's the numbers that we're presented with. Like, I'm looking at these guys in the hundreds, and they make a lot more sense. Like, these guys 110 to 115 to 1, K.H. Lee is there. Mito Pereira is there. Lucas Herbert I have some interest in this week. Like, these guys, are they –

Is Justin Thomas 10X more likely to win than one of these guys? Siwoo Kim, who's 130 to 1. Right.

I don't think he is. So the way that they've all kind of released these numbers and structured this this week, I think the books have an understanding that the majority of these winners the past couple of years have come from the lower numbers. And they are the predominant players that are going to be in this field and the names that everyone knows and recognizes. And it's Super Bowl Sunday. I don't know that has anything to do with it, but maybe they see an influx of tickets coming in and just people betting.

But there's a lot more value, I would think, on this board at 100 plus than I see in just sort of stacking guys in the 20s and 30s.

You mentioned Mito. I love Mito this week. I'm not sure I see him winning, but I'm absolutely there in DFS. I'm not super concerned about Pebble last week. He just, he had a ton of bad juju around him and I knew this would happen. And shout out to my boy, Luke, who I was talking about this with, where there was this craze with Mito in the fall where he was

35 to one. And that was never going to be for me, but we were always like, we will eat when he stops getting talked about and drops, uh, and the shine gets off him a little bit and he's fairly priced. And I think he is fairly priced now. I think, uh,

ball striking run that he had in the fall. I think it was obvious that he was going to regress a little bit, but I still think that he's a very good ball striker. And it also seems like he's really started to figure out the putter as well. So Mito, I love this week. Don't know if I haven't placed a ticket yet. I've seen some things as high as like 120, but I'll be there and draft Kings. And then Joe, I've got like

eight guys I could talk about. So however, however you want to do this, we can go like back and forth. I don't want to spoil too much of lunchtime long shots. That's one of my favorite videos of the week. So you just tell me however you want to do this, because I've got like six guys in here that I just think are, are the gold. I haven't even made up my mind yet on a lot of them, but there's a lot of guys that I really like as well. I was on Matt Neesmith last week, probably

Probably going to be on him again. I think he was first round leader here last year. I just take his games in a really good place. He, I believe he missed the cut on an MDF last week after one sort of poor round, but the guy's been playing really good golf. There's other guys that you just look from a course history standpoint that are not in good form, but you wonder if this is a get right spot for him. I'll tell you a few Emiliano Griot, maybe,

Maybe this is a get right spot for him. Brendan Steele has great course history here. Maybe this is a get right spot for him. I don't know. There's just so many names, I think, in this range that I think it's worthy this week to sort of take some long shots. Hudson Swofford just won.

At the Amex, which you mentioned is a good spot, he's 201. Saheeth is here, who I loved last week, is at 201. Cam Davis is another guy that I like big numbers. I mean, I'm just kind of chucking out names here, but I could really sit here and make a case for, I feel like, all of them, statistically in one way or another, setting up well for Phoenix. And at the price point, over 125 to 1, the investment you have to put into them is so little.

five, 10, 15 bucks that it could give you a fun Sunday sweat here before Superbowl Sunday.

All right. We're going to play some trivia, Joe. So I mentioned that these greens at TPC Scottsdale have the same overseed as PGA West and a very similar overseed at TPC Sawgrass and Innisbrook. I'm not going to say it's the exact same because as you know, there's a little bit of a different climate in Florida, but it's very similar. You and I probably most players probably

like wouldn't be able to tell the difference between those ones. So I put all of the putting metrics together from these courses and I tried to figure out, okay, who is the best on these types of greens on average, based on all the rounds that we have. Do you want to make a guess at who is number one? I'll give you one more hit actually, before you guess. We mentioned PGA West and TPC Summerlin

as potential good comp courses to look at because they both have risk reward TPC courses that play in a desert climate. So this player who is the number one putter on these greens over a pretty large sample size is also the number two player in this entire field in average strokes gained per round at TPC Summerlin and PGA West right behind Patrick Cantlay. And he's 130 to one. Oh my God. Um,

Is it Chez? No. Who do you got? It's Adam Hadwin, who's my... Adam Hadwin is like my favorite play on the board at 131. I think he's like 6.... I forgot he won Innisbrook. Yeah. Yeah, he's like 6.9 in DraftKings. I think he is such a good play this week. He's probably one of the most confident I've been in a 6K golfer in a long time, which probably means he misses the cut by 10. But...

He gained 5.5 ball striking at Pebble, finished T16, just good enough that you're really encouraged, but he wasn't on coverage. He didn't get a giant price bump or anything like that. And as I mentioned with the putting on all these courses, I don't think that's a reason to go

on or off someone, but you add that up with how good he's been at some of these other courses, and he's been good here too. He's made a bunch of cuts here and has a couple of top 20. So Adam Hadwin, 130 to one. Throw five bucks on him, Joe. I forgot he slayed down Cantlay at Innisbrook, didn't he? Yeah. Before we knew, before he was 14 to one, Patrick Cantlay. Yeah. Hadwin can play, man. So he was...

He was a guy I bat at 130. Keith Mitchell, pretty buzzy this week. I got the 130 on Keith Mitchell pretty early. Almost cashed out when I heard all the buzz, but it's a small bat. I would say maybe proceed with caution in DraftKings, but there's a really good case for him. Like I said, off the tee really matters this week.

And in my opinion, and Keith Mitchell is one of the best drivers of the ball on tour. He's long, he's accurate. He's actually starting to hit his irons really well too. The fact that he finished,

12th at Pebble Beach last week, a course, in my opinion, that really takes driver out of your hands and you don't really gain a huge advantage at Pebble Beach by being an elite driver of the ball. The fact that he finished 12th there, that's really encouraging to me because now he goes to a course where I do think his driver can be used as a weapon everywhere.

And I like that he almost won at the Summit Club too. He's kind of percolating. He's 12th at the RSM, 7th at the Sony, 12th at Pebble. And this is a better fit for him than all those courses, but he's probably going to be that 7K guy that is like 13%. So I would proceed with caution in that sense, but I think he's a good outright bet.

Yeah, I think around that number two, another guy that kind of fits the mold as I'm flipping through here. Good off the tee player. Good driver of the ball. Good on approach. Bad putter. Keegan. Yeah, I had a circle to one.

Yeah. And he, I mean, he's very fairly priced in DraftKings. 10 appearances here. He's made eight cuts, five top 25 finishes. So he's finishing top 25 here. 50% of the time he plays again. Like I don't think he'll be very popular because the 7k range is just loaded with guys that people are playing, but he still remains one of the best ball strikers in this entire field. So I'm with you on that. I have a couple more like

super crazy guys that are more DraftKings plays and top 40 guys. But anyone else that you are betting here? No, no one else that I've had bets on right now. Let's hear who you got in terms of DraftKings darts.

Well, oh, I forgot. I did bet Martin Laird at 150 to one. Desert Fox. Yeah, right? Like he's got four top tens here, two top fives. He's won at TPC Summerlin. He's putted really well on these overseeded Bermuda greens. Just gained 2.5 on approach at the Farmers. Really good mid-iron player, really accurate off the tee. And I just, I think he's a good play this week. And then

Oh man. Like were you on Akro last week too? Did you like, because I, I, he did something that was very frustrating to many people on Friday. I had Akro and draft Kings. I did not bet him though, but yeah, it was a little bit of a tough scene there. So he lost 4.2 strokes putting and missed the cut on the number on his one round at Pebble beach on Friday.

So he, or it was Saturday cause it was a, it was a 54 hole cut, but he missed the cut on the number and he lost 4.2 strokes putting and missed a five footer, um, on the second to last hole to miss the cut. So I think he probably let a lot of people down last week.

I'm going right back at 6,200. Awesome ball striker. Really like that he finished 16th at TPC Twin Cities, which is one of the only events he's played on the PGA Tour, but he popped there and that's another TPC risk reward course with a lot of water. So I will certainly have some ecro.

Yeah. He's a really cheap price. What's the deal with Han? Because he's there at 6,200. I mentioned that he feels low, right? Yeah. He got melted by Brooks. It feels like he's sort of got as a guy that kind of has his spots and the ability, you know, it's hard to get at 6,200. You're kind of just looking for a guy to make a cut, but Han feels like a guy that just will randomly top 10 as well. So you get a guy at 6,200 in your lineup who gets like finishes 14th and you've got a lot of

room there if you're in one of these sort of large format GPPs to kind of boom. Was it a COVID situation at the farm? Or something happened with a withdrawal recently, right? I think he withdrew from Pebble Beach. He played Farmers and missed the cut, but he hit the ball...

hit the ball really well at farmers. And I would be excited about that because again, I don't think Tori's the best course for him. This is a much better course for him. Yeah. I'll be there at, at 6.2. And then the other, the, the last guy that I'm just such a sucker for is like, I'm never not going to play a 6.5 K Matt Wallace, because I think Matt Wallace is just very good. Um, he's so much better than a lot of the players he's probably

price around. And I know it's his first appearance here, but he did finish 14th at TPC Summerlin this fall on his debut. And I just think he's way too cheap. Yeah. So I'm looking it up now. It was COVID withdrawal last Wednesday, tested positive for James Hahn. So I think that that, I don't know how the PGA Tour rules are, but if he's in the field this week, I would imagine that he's gotten clearance.

Yeah. I mean, I could talk about Duffner. I could talk about more, but I think that's probably it for me. Is there anyone we missed? Is there anyone else you want to throw out there before we wrap up, buddy? No, just one. I mean, I guess I would just kind of harp on going back through my stuff to keep an eye on live odds.

This is a course with a ton of volatility down the stretch. And like you mentioned, risk reward where chasers can come back and erase deficits rather quickly on this back nine. That's the way that they set this course up. That's what they wanted.

They wanted excitement. They wanted drama. That's what we seemingly get every year. Don't be afraid of guys who do not start hot the way that I remember the year that Webb won and that I had him. He was extremely popular that week. And I think he was won over after the first day and everyone was cursing him like,

why all this web chalk, blah, blah, blah. He just slowly chipped away. Finau faltered late. He got himself into a playoff and won. So you don't have to necessarily start hot. You need to finish hot. So pay attention to that. The crowd can play a big role. And guys, when you're sitting on a two, three stroke lead, the crowd feels a little bit different when they boo you on the tee, when you hit a bad shot than it does when you're chasing from three down, they can really sort of fire you up and

So that would be one thing that I would kind of know to pay attention to have those live odds pulled up. Enjoy your Super Bowl Sunday. And if you see an opportunity to catch a guy three or four back on Sunday heading into the back nine, we know that we've seen a history of it happening before. OK, before we get out of here, do you have do you have a take on the Super Bowl? Do you have do you have a strong opinion?

So I've been very, this is hard for me because this is very biased coming from a Browns fan, but I have been anti-Bengals all year. I took their under six and a half wins this year. Oh, you did? Yeah. Yeah.

I don't know how they're doing it. I mean, the NFL is a quarterback league, so I get it, but I do not, I do not trust their coach one bit with decision-making. I think that their offensive line is horrible. It's shaky. And I don't know how they're going to stand up to Vaughn Miller and Aaron Donald. I think the Rams are so much more talented than them. Um,

I'm going to bet the Rams. I hope to get a number around four or lower. I may do some props as well that have a little bit of fun, but yeah,

yeah, I'm not going to be on Cincinnati. But they scare me, man. Burroughs, he scares, like, he's done this, like, as a guy who comes from Ohio, right, all my friends are scorned now because he was at Ohio State. They're all huge Ohio State fans, and they let him leave, and then he beat them in the national championship. So, and now he's at Cincinnati. We're all Browns fans. Luckily, we're 4-0 somehow against Joe Burroughs, the Browns are, since he's been a starting quarterback. But

um yeah he scares me man so good i'm going ram so i am in the same boat as you joe where i have just been so wrong on this team i bet them i bet the raiders against them in the wildcard rounds i bet the titans against them in in the in the wildcard round yeah i loved the titans this week so i

I'm speculatively on the Rams. I don't love the side or total. There's some, uh, there's some fun props that I'll definitely be involved in and tweet out. I got like an anthem guy apparently. So I'll be in touch. Yeah. I'll be, I got like a rehearsal, a rehearsal anthem guy. Um, so I'll, yeah, I'll be, I'll be in touch about maybe, maybe we can exploit some of those props because I think it's a

It's a tough line. I think the over-under is a fair line. All the really smart football people that I talk to talk about how the side and the total are the sharpest lines of the year, but you can expunge tons and tons and tons of value. And I'm sure all these numbers have probably been hit already before by looking at the prop. So I'll definitely be involved in some of that.

If you got an anthem guy, if he may have a little insight into halftime show props as well. There's also some fun stuff where books offer like parlays basically between the golf and football this week, which are always fun to get into too. So we'll see what the offerings all sort of level out at, but I'm excited for it.

Joe, Joni, everyone, Joe, can you let everyone know where they can find you this week? You're a busy guy these days. Yeah, absolutely. Basically everything that I do is posted for free on my Twitter account. So it's at TorPix.

Check that out. I will put out a little lunchtime long shots video. I do a show on Wednesdays with Rick Gaiman for jock market power hour in tomorrow night. I will do the preferred lines podcast where we'll kind of re go over the board again and, and give some takes on Phoenix and kind of finalize our card out there. But that's where you can find me. I appreciate you having me on as always, Andy, you're a good friend. We got to play a little golf together. So this felt very natural and smooth. I hope it worked out well for you.

Anytime, of course, buddy, you are firmly entrenched in the rotation. So we will be doing this again very soon. And I'm inviting, we did preferred lines for the hero, but I told you, I said, I feel like I got gypped out of Chad because I love Chad. Chad's my guy. And so I, I didn't get the full preferred lines experience because I wanted Chad there too.

Well, listen, I will get him on. So we are doing, we haven't done too many guests lately. So we started out doing a lot of guest stuff. Maybe we need to get back to that a little bit. Maybe the Florida swing will bring you through here. Um, any plans to come out here for that swing? Yeah. You know, you mentioned the players to me, um,

I'm thinking about it. Yeah, that, that works. I am thinking about that. I'm definitely the thing that's tough for me is one of my best friends, uh, actually lives in Oklahoma. So I'm going to the PGA championship and doing like a big week there where I spend the entire week in Oklahoma with him at Southern Hills. I'm also going to the U S open in Boston. So I am, I, I,

I'm like, I'm just going to run out of money with these golf trips at some point. But yeah, do you ever go north?

I would love to go north. Do you ever grace us in New York? I would love to check out US Open or something like that up in that area. I think it would be very fun. We'll talk about it. We'll get something together. But yeah, I was thinking about the players. Obviously, I go to the Honda every year. I was thinking about API as well. So maybe I'll make it to a couple of events as we come down here. It'll be nice to...

wake up to, you know, your guys, the early morning, like wake up tilt. I'm looking forward to that where you wake up and your guys are three over through two holes. So, um, it'll be fun to get back on East coast schedule. All right, Joe, thanks so much for joining me, my friend. Good to see you, buddy. Yeah. Later dude. All right. That is it for this week's episode. Thank you to Joey Doni for joining me. You can catch me on the scramble 12 PM Eastern 9 AM Pacific. Um,

on the Rick Run Good YouTube channel, Tuesdays and Fridays. Odds Checker round one matchups will be out either Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. And then Midway Report for Odds Checker, where we gave out Troy Merritt at like 45 to one on Friday night. He gave it a really nice run. So love writing those Odds Checker articles.

Best of luck to everyone this week. I will do my absolute best to put out a Sunday show for Riviera. The reason why I say I will do my absolute best but not making any promises is that on Saturday, I am making a solo pilgrimage to Pasatiempo.

which is an Alistair McKenzie semi-public golf course in Santa Cruz. So 11 hours in the car, round trip for me on Saturday. It's about five and a half hours away from Los Angeles. So waking up at 5 a.m.,

to do this and will not be back till very late that night. But I'm crazy and Positiempo has been on my bucket list for a while. So I might be a little behind on Sunday, but we will do our best. All right. Good luck this week and we'll catch you next time. Cheers.

Between the viaducts of your dream Where mobile steel rims crack And the Dutch and the back road stop

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