2022 Waste Management Open Betting & DFS Preview
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Okay. Welcome in inside golf podcast. My name is Andy Lack, Waste Management, Phoenix Open, Betting, and DFS Preview. Welcome to any new listeners. In this episode, we will be breaking down absolutely everything you need to know about the golf tournament this coming week in Phoenix. I'm recording this late on Saturday evening.

Before the final rounds at Pebble Beach tomorrow, shout out Tom Hoagie. Shout out Andrew Putnam, who looks exactly like Aaron Rodgers. Those are good picks. To have two guys above 70-1 tied for the lead heading into Sunday, we will take that. We will always take that. But, spoiler alert, they are not going to win. I think Spieth or Cantlay is going to win.

That would probably make more sense than Tom Hoagie or Andrew Putnam. But hey, we've got a shot. That's all we can ask for. I'm not a huge recap the previous week guy, even on the good ones. And we have been having a lot of those lately. But I want to call myself out.

on Spieth because I did not expect this at all out of him. I even told my friend Nagels, I thought it was a bad play. I do not like what he's doing with his pre-shot routine, or I did not like what he was doing with his pre-shot routine. It looks different than what he was doing last year when he was playing well.

It's way more rehearsed. It's way more deliberate. It's not always consistent. Sometimes he does different things. Sometimes he takes it back a little. Sometimes he takes it all the way back. And it looks like he's doing everything he can to fight that pull hook, which plagued him during that slump before he got hot last year around this time of year.

And I think the way he's trying to overcorrect that is by exaggerating this over the top move, which is like nightmare fuel for golf swing people. And for this reason, it was a total stay away. Had nothing to do with the baby. I don't care about that stuff. It was just pure eye test.

He's tinkering with his golf swing. He doesn't look comfortable. And for the record, he still didn't look comfortable on Saturday at Pebble Beach. And yet he had his best iron round in eight months. And I think the part I underestimated was it never looks the way it should with Spieth, right? It's always a roller coaster, right?

But there's no one better at manufacturing rounds and getting the most out of his game, even when his game is not there. I remember at the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage that Brooks won. Spieth could not find the center of the club face, and he finished in third place. So even though it still looks like he's putting a Band-Aid on a bullet wound,

That's kind of how it always looks, right? Is he the same player right now that he was in 2015 when he won two majors? No, not currently. He looks a little shakier right now and a little shakier than when he was during last summer, during that really hot run. But the fact that he can still contend at tournaments without the golf swing totally being there yet,

Really good sign. Really, really good sign because he always does figure it out. He's just one of those players that goes through cycles with a swing, right? Where he loses it sometimes. I was a little worried that he was about to have one of those cycles where it was just lost again. That's what my eyes were telling me. And that's what the numbers were telling me as well. But I think he's going to be fine, which is really great to see because I am on the record about how much I love him

This year at the major venues, by the way, check out new podcasts. I did with Rick breaking down the major venues. That's on the 300 yards to unknown podcast feed. I think it came out last week. So check that out and you can hear more of my thoughts on speed in the major venues and the masters is two months away. So I'm really, really glad to see speed starting to get back on track. There's just something about him that,

and Pebble Beach that I totally underestimated. And that makes me think he's going to win today. But I don't know. Maybe my guys, Hoagie or Putnam, can make it interesting. Or Cantlay shoots 62 and wins by five. Who knows? We shall see. All right, let's move on. Waste Management Phoenix Open. One of the more fun events on the PGA Tour schedule, in my opinion.

Actually, I think everyone loves this one. It has been on the PGA Tour schedule since 1939. This is 1939, formerly known as the Phoenix Open, and it was held at Phoenix Country Club. And then starting in 1987, it moved to its current home, TPC Scottsdale.

which is a little outside downtown Phoenix. So we've been coming to this course for almost 40 years. So we do have a lot of data on TPC Scottsdale. Last year, Brooks Koepka won at 19 under par over KH Lee and Xander Shoffley. 2020 Webb Simpson won in a playoff over Tony Finau. 2019 Ricky Fowler over Brandon Grace. 2018

Gary Woodland over Chez Ruby. Watch out for the repeat from Woodland this week. 2017 Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff over Webb Simpson. 2016 Hideki Matsuyama over Ricky Fowler in a playoff. 2015 Brooks for the first time over Hideki. Ryan Palmer, Bubba Watson. 2014 Kevin Stadler over Graham DeLette and Bubba Watson. 2013 Phil Mickelson over

Brant Snedeker, 2012 Kyle Stanley over Ben Crate. So just looking at the guys who played really well here, I think iron play is probably the easiest through line that comes to mind. When is it not? And the fact that you don't necessarily have to be a great putter.

A lot of Hideki, a lot of Brooks, and any time you have Kyle Stanley win, you have to assume you can get away with a shaky putter. And for the most part, I probably should include off the tee as well. This is a place where Zander, Brooks, Finau, Woodland, Hideki, Bubba have all played well. Those guys drive the ball really well. Those are the type of guys who play well at major championships and at places like Torrey Pines and Augusta and Riviera.

But that's what's kind of cool about TPC Scottsdale. You've obviously got those guys, but Webb Simpson can win too. Brant Snedeker's been pretty good here. Jez Reavy. Kuchar's been really good here. All those guys aren't very good off the tee, but they're really good wedge players. And I will explain why I think those guys have been able to find some success too as we get into the course. So let's talk about TPC Scottsdale.

Par 71, 7,266 yards. It plays shorter than that, though, because we are at altitude. Keep that in mind. It was designed in 1986 by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Marish, two guys that have done a lot of solid work in Arizona. It plays at an approximate elevation of 1,530 feet above sea level.

which we'll touch on a bit soon. Wisecoff did some redesign work in 2014. Didn't change it a ton, just made it a little bit longer and more difficult. And as you've seen since then, the winning score has been somewhere in between 14 and 19 under par every year.

Um, it's a course that generally plays more difficult as the week goes on. I talk about this a ton, but the more sunlight it gets, um, the more it's going to bake out and play firmer and faster. And that's what makes it play more difficult, right? Which is really cool in my opinion. And I wish more courses stopped watering in between rounds so much. Um, but it always feels like at this tournament, um,

There are super easy scoring conditions over the first two days. And then on Sunday, it always feels like there's just madness and guys ejecting left and right. And I think that's because it bakes out over the week. And there's legitimate trouble on this course. And you can make some big numbers, especially when it firms up over the weekend. So I'm not a TPC guy at all. I do not like these types of courses at all.

I think they serve a purpose on the PGA Tour, but architecturally, they're a little gimmicky in my opinion. And there's basically just a couple design templates that just get copied over and over again. But of the TPC courses, I actually think TPC Scottsdale is really underrated as a golf course. I really do. I think for the purpose it serves, it's really good. And it makes for really fun viewing.

I think if they wanted to really bake this course out, it would actually be an amazing Ryder Cup venue or President's Cup venue. I really feel that way. There are just some really fun risk reward holes that actually involve strategy. It's not just about homogenous execution, right? There's some legitimate shot values and decisions you have to make down the stretch. The drivable par 4 17th,

That's just a really good golf hole. That's a really good template for a drivable par four. So I know people think I'm tough on a lot of these PG tour courses, but I really enjoy TBC Scott scale. I think they got this one, right? It's a pretty damn good golf course and it's good on TV too. The greens are quite large here, which I love 7,100 square feet on average. It's double what we saw at pebble beach this weekend.

Bermuda grass fairways and rough with rye and fescue only two and a half inches. The rough is not penal at all here, but you obviously don't want to get too wild or you're in a cactus. The greens are Tiff Eagle Bermuda grass. So they're Bermuda grass based greens, but they're overseeded every single year with a velvet bent grass Poetra vialis. So they aren't really Bermuda grass greens.

And I will not be looking at Bermuda grass putting as part of my hashtag model this week. Now, last year, they overseeded them a little differently. I know this is like nightmare fuel talking about this stuff for some people, but a lot of people are going to get this wrong this week. So I want to just spend 30 more seconds on it. Last year, they didn't overseed with that velvet bank grass, but they kept the Poetrivialis and the ryegrass.

which actually makes them a little bit grainier and a little bit more like Bermuda grass. So PGA West, where we just had the American Express, same deal here. TPC Sawgrass does a similar type of thing with their greens as well. Innisbrook has very similar greens where there's Bermuda, but there's also an overseed. So

How I would handle putting this week. I don't think you should look at just purely Bermuda because that's going to account for courses like Kapalua and these greens are nothing like those. If you want to get really nerdy, you can look at how guys have put it at Innisbrook, the players, the American Express, especially because that's even more similar to this being on the West Coast and did this type of climate. Yeah.

And I will, of course, do a little bit of that because I can't help myself. But for the most part, I don't think you need to get super in the weeds trying to figure out these greens. In terms of putting, I'm just looking at guys who are rolling it well right now and coming in with some confidence because I do think these are much easier greens to putt on than the POA ones we've seen at Pebble and Torrey. And in general, I'm not really looking at putting a ton. I think despite the fact that

This isn't the most difficult course. It definitely falls closer to a shot makers and ball strikers course than it does a piece of shit putting contest. Okay, what else stood out to me? So I was looking at the path to victory for some of these guys. And I was looking at what players did well on the leaderboard. It's very balanced, right? Like average winner in driving distance, 18th. Driving accuracy, 21st.

proximity to the hole, 11th. Scrambling, 18th. Putting, 15th. The one that probably jumps out the most is iron play. Winners have ranked 5th in approach and 4th in greens and regulation. But I wouldn't call this just a pure iron fest. I think you need more of a well-rounded skill set here. Now, last year, it really was irons and putting. Brooks gained 9.1 irons and putting. Only three short game and off the tee. Spieth gained...

12 strokes irons and putting lost 1.7 off the tee in short game. Steve Stricker lost off the tee and short game gained 8.5 irons and putting and finished fourth. Nine out of the top 10 guys last year gained over three strokes putting. So I wonder if that had anything to do with the new over seed. Who can say? Too small of a sample size. And 2020 was somewhat similar, right? Irons and putting. Webb gained 12.

irons and putting, Finau gains over 10. Year before Fowler, 12.4 irons and putting, JT almost 11. But the reason I think despite that you need more of a complete game here is I always say this, stop looking at what just the winners did, right? Look at the whole story. Often the guy who actually wins the tournament

has a ridiculous outlier performance at something, usually with their irons or their putter, right? So looking at just what the guy who won did is like picking up a book and saying, I'm just going to read one chapter of this and tell you all about this story based on one chapter. So for example, here, if you look at the average strokes gained of guys who finished top 10 in

Off the tee is like 70% of approach and putting. And you aren't going to see that at the Sony Open or Pebble Beach or Colonial, right? And you look at driving distance here, 294 on average compared to 282. So this is a course where you can hit driver.

you can hit driver and take advantage of this course off the tee. And I think that's why Brooks has been so good, why Xander's been so good. Woodland, Rahm has played here like six times and never finished outside the top 20. So while it's not like Torrey Pines where if you can't drive the ball long and straight, you are at a massive disadvantage and it's tough. It's really tough to win. It's not like that. But I actually think...

Off the tee. I really like it as something to look at this week and specifically good drives gained, which is also an approach stat and can help me filter out guys who can put themselves in position off the tee, hit greens and regulation because you don't necessarily need to be super accurate here. But the one thing, the one thing that you cannot do on this course, the most important thing on this course, you cannot go into the desert unless you're Jordan Spieth.

and pull a rabbit out of your ass. I just think you need to drive the ball well here. I don't have off the tee weighted like I did at Torrey Pines, but you look at the leaderboard, every single one of these guys in the top 10 plus one in good drives gained. Now they're also over plus one in greens and regulation gained, but you don't always see that every week, right? Like last week with Pebble for context,

I didn't look at off the tee at all because super wide fairways. I know pebble really well. I played there a bunch. So I know there's very little benefit to hitting driver. Um, there's a lot of layup holes and the ones where you can hit driver. It's a wide fairway. And that worked out really well for me with my guys at pebble knock on wood with 18 holes to go. Um,

At TPC Scottsdale, however, and I've never played TPC Scottsdale, I think there is a big advantage to getting yourself in the right position off the tee. The second shot is still more important, but there are so many holes where you are in such deep shit if you don't drive the ball and play. So I think you want to take a look at off the tee this week. Don't need to be super accurate, but the one thing you can't do on this course, say it one more time, is hit it in the desert. Okay, what else? Around the green.

I don't want to say it's irrelevant because I watched Xander chip himself out of that tournament last year. But greens and regulation percentage higher than tour average. Remember, these are big greens. Scrambling percentage higher than tour average. There are some delicate little shots around the green here. There are some collection areas and tight lies off that Bermuda. So I will have a small weight on it.

And yes, iron play, of course, is important here. We talked about last week how Pebble Beach is a wedge course and the week before how Torrey Pines is a long irons course. Scottsdale is kind of right in the middle. You're going to have a lot of approach shots between 125 and 200 yards. So a lot of pitching wedges to seven irons.

Um, so basically outside of the drivable par four 17th, all of the par fours are between 400 and 500 yards. So not a lot of super long ones, not a lot of super short ones. So the proximity bucket you want to be looking at is that nine iron, eight iron range, seven iron range, pitching wedge range, 60% of approach shots come from that range of one 25 to 200. That's well above tour average. Now don't go crazy on this stuff.

Again, this is a different podcast, but I think proximity is a very flawed statistic. If you're looking at it, look for trends over a large sample size at least, okay? Because short-term proximity stats...

are really wonky. So when I look at proximity, I don't ever go big on it, but I look at it over a large sample size because it can help you identify some good big picture stuff. Like, okay, this guy's clearly a better wedge player than he is a long iron player or vice versa. In terms of scoring stats, only three par fives on this course instead of four, but top 10 finishers have gained a ton of strokes on the par fives. All three of them are reachable.

They're basically around 550 yards, all of them. And all three of them feature nearly a 40% birdie rate. So I'll be looking a bit at par five scoring and like all TPC courses, I'm

you're going to need to make some birdies. There's obviously a pretty strong correlation between players who rated out highly in birdies or better gains and the top of the leaderboard. Now that's very often the case at most tournaments, but even more pronounced here than other places there, there are a lot of birdie holes on this course, despite it not being one at 25 under par. And the reason why it's not one at 25 under par is,

is because there are a lot of big numbers out there as well. And you have to be good at staying out of trouble and avoiding bogeys. So I took a bit of a look at those scoring stats. Par fives, birdies are better gained, bogey avoidance. Those are really only the ancillary stats that I found a strong correlation with. And that's it.

Basically, it comes down to, can you keep the ball in play off the tee? Are you good with those short to middle irons? Are you able to take advantage of the par fives and avoid big numbers? That's basically it. It's a course that we go to every single year. The weather's always perfect. There's rarely any winds. So it's basically like playing golf in a dome. And you know this if you've ever played golf in Palm Springs or Arizona before.

And a lot of the same guys seem to always have success here. So I'm looking a little bit at course history, but I don't think it's as predictive as we saw last week with pebble. Um, I don't think that TPC Scottsdale is that nuanced of a course where you can't just show up here and,

and figure it out pretty quickly. Like Brooks won on his first appearance here. Kyle Stanley won on his debut. Rahm almost won on his first appearance. Hideki almost won on his first appearance here. Brandon Grace almost won on his first appearance here. So yeah, look at guys that have played well here. There are certain guys that have just always been awesome here, like Xander,

Hideki, Rahm, Brooks, Bubba's been really good here. Speed's been really good here. JT's been really good here. Webb's been awesome. It's another course where Kuchar and Snedeker have also been consistently pretty good too. But I wouldn't rule out a guy just because it's their first appearance here because we've seen a lot of guys have a ton of success on their debut. As far as comps go,

Um, there are a lot of similarities between a lot of these TPC courses. I think the most obvious one that comes to mind is TPC Summerlin because it's also a desert TPC course at elevation where it's really scorable, but you have to keep the ball in play off the tee. TPC Boston makes some sense to me. Um, the summit club where they had the CJ cup this year.

Makes some sense to me. That's a little bit easier, but it's another desert risk reward course with some elevation. I think sawgrass is a little more positional. I don't think you can hit as many drivers at sawgrass, but it does have a lot of that same risk reward aspect to it where a lot of the holes are templated in a similar fashion and you can birdie almost every hole, but you can also make double in an instant.

Plus they have similar greens. So I'll look a little at TPC Summerlin and the Summit Club. If you want to do like a strokes game TPC thing, be my guest. I'm not going to do that just because some of these courses are, some of the TPC courses rather, are totally wide open birdie fest. You don't really need to focus on keeping the ball in play off the tee. The grass is different, different part of the country, different time of year, not at altitude.

But from an architectural standpoint, the TPC network has designed the courses with a very specific goal in mind to provide a course for professional tournaments where the winning score is somewhere between 14 and 25 under par. And many of the par threes are over water and all the par fives have a risk reward element. So low numbers are available and guys can make a charge. Um,

but there's also enough trouble that you can also eject. And if that is your goal for designing a golf course, I actually think TPC Scottsdale succeeds massively. I don't even think a lot of the other TPC courses we see do the best job of doing what they were set out to do, but TPC Scottsdale really delivers.

Really does. Okay. A couple of quotes that stood out to me before we get to the model and early leans. Brooks basically talked about how he loves the atmosphere here. The fans get him going. There's an energy here that you just don't see at other events. And I think that's why this has been one of the very few courses outside of major championships that Brooks has had a lot of success at.

This is obviously not a major, but there's enough juice and excitement here to hold his attention where certain non-majors at boring courses, and he's talked about this before, maybe they feel a little dull to him and it's harder for him to get engaged and feed off the atmosphere. I don't know. It's a working theory, but like I mentioned, there are certain players that just absolutely love it here. They love the atmosphere. They're,

They feed off it and they always seem to play well. So that's why course history is a tricky one this week. There's tons of instances. I already gave you a few of them where you can show up here on your first appearance and win or finish top five. But there's also a group of players who I mentioned who are just always, always, always going to be really good here.

And I think that maybe has a little bit less to do with how they actually fit the course and maybe a little bit more to do with the fact that they probably just like playing in a much more engaging atmosphere. Maybe you heard players talk about this a bunch when golf first came back from the pandemic. A lot of players really relish the fans and the atmosphere.

It can feel like a practice route to some of them without fans. Rory has talked about this a bunch before. So I think the merit in looking at course history, there's just some players that play well here and feed off the atmosphere year in and year out. And again, that has not as much maybe to do with the course fit, some to do with the course fit, but also the fact that this unique singular tournament where there's a little more energy in the air.

And then the last thing, I don't really know how to quantify this. Maybe going for the green percentage, even that shaky. But one thing that really stood out to me from looking at all the quotes over the years is that guys kept talking about how you have to be aggressive here.

There are a lot of risk reward holes and you got to be willing to go out and score like it is. It's really easy to play this course conservatively and shoot par and play it safe. But to shoot a good score, you have to take some chances, which is the sign of a very well-designed golf course. The players keep using the word attack quote. I got to play aggressive off the tee and attack offensively.

That's from my guy Gary Woodland, former champion, potential two-time champion after this week. So again, I'm not sure the best way to quantify this. I mean, I'm looking at par fives and birdies, but anecdotally, I think you want to look for players that play aggressively. Phil has been very good here. Brooks is a very aggressive player. He fires at a lot of pins, especially if it's not a major.

Hideki, really aggressive player too. You saw his style firsthand in that playoff where he dummied Russell Henley. And I don't think it's a coincidence that these guys have been good here. Again, I don't think you can really quantify what I'm talking about, but this is like a Nagel stat. He'll appreciate what I'm trying to say. There are other ways to find players that will be good fits here outside of strokes gained. Might be nothing, might be something.

I'm going to try and think about it this week. Okay. Speaking of strokes gained, here is the hashtag model about to use this bad boy to dole out some units. All right. This is a good model. I've really, really stepped it up this year.

Off the tee, weighted average of off the tee and good drives gained 20%. That's kind of high for me. Approach, 32%, which is a weighted average of approach proximity from 125 to 200, right? So I have it correlated to what top 10 finishers have done here, where I have off the tee around 70% of what I have approach. Around the green, 6%.

Putting, 15%. So putting at PGA West, 2%. Innsbruck, 2%. Putting at TBC Sawgrass, 2%. And then recent four putting, 9%. Scoring stats. Par 5 scoring birdies or better gains, bogey avoidance. Those all make up 14%. And then course history slash comp course is 13%. Course history, 7%.

And then I have a weighted average of how they've done it. TBC Summerlin and Summit Club as well. So a couple of surprises this week. John Rahm, number one, Patrick Cantlie, number two. That's not a surprise, but here's where it gets interesting. Russell Henley, number three, Russell Henley, Luke Liss vibes last week where he's surrounded by,

John, Ron, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger. Right. So we'll see about Henley. Louie is making his return. Louie's number six. I think there's a great course for Louie who stays in. Then number seven, Amito Pereira is back. He was a little cursed last week. I don't think we want to put a ton of stock into that miscut.

I think this is a great course for me to Pereira. Okay. Victor Hovland, number eight, Sam Burns, number nine, Webb Simpson, 10 Hideki, 11. None of these are surprising, right? Luke list, 12, Harold Varner, 13, Taylor Gooch, 14,

My boy, Matt Wallace, 15. Tom Hoagie, 16. Aaron Wise, 17. Xander Shoffley, 18. Scotty Scheffler, 19. Tony Finau, 19. A little low for Xander based on what he usually is. And okay, so before I talk about early leads, everyone's favorite segment. I want to precursor this by saying that the guys that are playing Pebble

and the guys that are playing in Saudi Arabia that haven't finished that tournament, I'm waiting to deep dive those guys until those tournaments are over. I just want the complete picture. I want to see what happens on Sunday. So guys like Abraham Anser, Zander, Finau, Spieth, Fitzpatrick, Cantlay, Mav McNeely, Seamus Power, Bubba Watson, Tom Hoagie,

Joel Dahman, Russell Knox. These are some of the jabroni guys I have circled. But Adam Hadwin, Keith Mitchell, Putnam, Varner, Neesmith, Ryan Moore. I haven't looked at any of those guys yet. I've only looked at guys that weren't playing in Saudi or at Pebble or missed the cut at Pebble, which is the majority of the field, vast majority of the field. So I've looked at a lot of guys. You know, listen,

I feel like there's already a little buzz around a John Rahm single bolt week. He, I get that. I get that. He, he's going to probably get, I'll get out in front of this. He's probably going to get one before the masters. I don't know if it's going to be this week or rev. I actually probably prefer him here than at rev, if I'm being honest. Um, but it, it's less than fifth, 16th, 11th, 10th, ninth, 13th. Um,

He's number one player off the tee. His irons aren't far behind. Incredibly accurate for how long he is. You don't ever worry about him making a big number. Ton of great success putting at PGA West. Number one par five player in this field. Makes a ton of birdies. Number one player in this field, bogey avoidance. Right? So I understand that. I'm not going to do that, but I understand that this week. If that's the road that you want to go down. Instead,

I think this is the week Scottie Scheffler can win. Now, no idea how popular he's going to be. Two appearances here. Scheffler's gone miscut seventh. Rates out pretty well. Not anything crazy, but well enough. Solid off the tee. Keeps the ball in play for the most part. Really good iron player. Solid with those short to mid irons. Decent short game. Hasn't been putting that well.

but he did gain 5.1 strokes putting on these greens last year. He's coming off a 20th at the farmers where he was neutral off the tee and gained 5.7 on approach, gained 0.2 around the green and lost 0.7 putting. And he had those two contending performances at the Mayakoba and the Houston open where he was really close.

And then he cooled down a bit with a 57th at the RSM and a 25th at the Amex. But it feels like it's starting to get going again with him. I love the way he hit the ball at the Farmers. I love this type of course for him. He's finished third before at the Amex. I watched him a lot at Whistling Straits. He goes for it. He likes to hit driver a lot.

He goes for par fives. I just think this is a course where he'll be able to be aggressive, and it's going to work for him here. I see him winning this type of event. I think there's a real benefit for playing aggressively, and I just think this is the type of course that's going to suit Scheffler's eye. So we've got to see where the wind blows with the odds. He can get overpriced sometimes. But Scheffler is my favorite play.

that I wanted to mention first. Now, let's talk about Russell Henley a little bit. Nine appearances at TBC Scottsdale. He's made the cut five times with two top 20 finishes. So he hasn't been very good here. He's been okay. Not terrible, but okay. So why does he sort of break my model this week? He's right behind Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay and right above Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger, which is a little strange to me

Because this isn't one of those Russell Henley courses. I mean, it is in theory, right? And we talked about this last time with Luke List. But in practice, he's been fine here, right? Now, the reason why he rates out so well, super, super accurate off the tee. And I think that's important this week. Hits a ton of fairways. And you don't really need to worry about him going into the desert here. The irons are elite.

He's one of the best in the field with those short to middle irons where you're going to be hitting a lot of approach shots from. Remember, a lot of par fours from 400 to 500, a lot of like seven, eight, nine irons. Henley is so good with those clubs, so good with those clubs. Over a large sample size, he's the number one player on the entire PGA Tour in proximity from 150 to 175. He's had some really decent success putting on these overseeded surfaces.

Really good desert resume outside of his lack of success here. He's been really good at the Shriners. You saw it at the Summit Club. Makes a ton of birdies. So that's why he is where he is, right? Yeah, it's similar to Luke List. Do I trust it? I'm not sure.

I always say, I am not a tout whatsoever. I'm a data and information guy. My data information, very good. I'm very proud of it. My decision-making based on that data and information, not always the best. Sometimes I like to

go rogue with my picks and not use all the data and information that I've accounted for. So I always say, listen to the information I'm providing and make your own picks. With Russell Henley, I'm not sure. I had him that week at the Sony too. I had him that week at the Wyndham too. I'm not going to lie and say that.

That doesn't have an effect on you after a while, after being on him twice when both of those things happened. But I will say this about Russell Henley. He actually rebounded pretty well after that crushing loss at the Sony with a 14th at the Amex, where through two rounds, he hit the ball really, really well. And I did not love that spot for him coming off such an emotional letdown.

but he ended up being a really, really good play. And last four starts, he's gone 7th, 22nd, 2nd, 14th. And he has that Luke list thing going on right now where he's so overwhelmingly high for me statistically. So at the very least, I'm going to have some exposure to him. Play him top 40, whatever. Not sure that he can win. A lot of people probably think he can never win.

I'm not one of those people. I think he can win. I don't know if it's going to be this week, but I think he's a good play this week. And again, this isn't really quantifiable, but I feel like the perception on him is a little skewed based on how uncharacteristically conservative he played on the back nine at Sony.

Take it from somebody that plays him and watches him a ton. Henley fires at Pence. He plays really aggressively, sometimes to a fault. And that's why the back nine at Sony was so jarring because it was such an obvious departure from what got him the five stroke lead in the first place. So he is a really aggressive player. That's kind of his MO. He fires at Pence, um,

You just, you get him in a situation where he's leading the tournament on the back nine and maybe he changes that strategy just a bit, but he can get so damn unconscious with those middle, middle islands. And, and I'm playing those guys this week. Okay. Want to wrap up here pretty soon. One more guy I want to talk about. This is a guy that probably will be popular. So we'll have to see where the wind blows. Very popular selection to play well this year.

And that's Aaron Wise. Aaron Wise rates out really, really well here. Really good iron player. Well above average with those middle to short irons. Good off the tee. Keeps the ball in play for the most part. Short game. Really underrated short game. Makes a ton of birdies. Dominates on par fives. And the putter has vastly improved. He's even had some pretty good success putting on these over-seeded Bermuda greens before at the Valspar.

Doesn't make a ton of bogeys. He's got a great history at TPC Summerlin too. And he contended also at the Summit Club. So he's got a nice little desert golf resume. Now, my hope is that he let a lot of people down at the Farmers. I think he bogeyed the last hole to miss the cut. And he did not hit the ball well in his one round at Torrey. So I hope people look at that. I'm not overly concerned with that, as you can probably imagine.

Because he actually had a really good round at the north course and missed the cut on the number and a good field. And we're not getting those ball striking numbers. But like I said, he was one of those MVPs of the fall. So he went 26th, 8th, 5th, 15th, 26th, 4th starts. No finish worse than 26. The ball striking has been really solid. The putting has been getting a lot better. And he's just playing really, he's playing a really well-rounded quarterback.

brand of golf right now where he's above average in pretty much everything. Similar to Siwoo, another player I really like this week. I really like Siwoo. I think you'll get a good break on Siwoo because he hasn't been good here either. I don't really care about the fact that he hasn't been good here. He's gone miscut 66. All of my numbers suggest it's a really good spot for him. So he's definitely, definitely on my short list and I think he can win.

I mean, he top 10 at Wells Fargo. That's a really good field. Top 10 at Memorial. That's a really good field. Top five at the CJ Cup. That was a really good field. 17th at the PGA Championship. So I don't think he's scared. And I think he's going to win soon. And I actually do think he could do it here. And there's a good spot for him. Okay. I mean, there are a lot of

uh jabronis i have circled that i'm not going to go super deep on but just a primer of the other guys that checked a lot of boxes for me that will be the dfs gold um hopefully martin laird i will play martin laird i may bet martin laird love martin laird duffner we're going right back to duffner

We're sticking with Gary Woodland, and I don't want to hear shit about Gary Woodland because he cashed me a big top 40 bet at the Farmers. Finished 39th. No big deal from Gary. Mito, who I mentioned. I like Mito a lot. Matt Wallace, I like a lot. I'll take a shot with Matt Wallace. Griot. We're going to get Griot back in the mix here. James Hahn, I like a lot. I will...

Go right back to Austin Necro, who broke my heart this week with a terrible, terrible, terrible round today to miss the cut on the number. Missed a five-foot birdie putt on 17. Lost almost four strokes putting in that round, in his final round, to miss the cut on the number. But...

short-term memory loss. He's a good play. He's a good golfer. I'll probably go right back to him. And I like Lebiota a little bit too. That'll do it for me. I think that's it. Yeah, that's everyone I wanted to talk about. We're coming in right at the 45-minute mark. So you can find me on The Scramble Tuesday, Tuesday morning, 12 p.m. Eastern.

Back on this podcast feed with my good buddy Joe Edoni doing a far more not necessarily in depth, but I will have more of my plays fleshed out and we'll have the odds and the DK pricing. So that'll come out on Tuesday morning.

And that will do it. I hope everyone has a great Sunday. Good luck with your bats. Go Putnam. Go Hoagie. And I will talk to you guys soon. Cheers.

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