2022 Valspar Championship with Bradley Todd
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If I ventured in the slipstream...

if you're not familiar with has probably the most absurd golf betting record. I think I've ever seen. He's really smart, dude. I was very excited to be able to pick his brain about a tournament that I actually really like. We kind of just got squeezed here because of the Monday finish. So,

This is going to be out a little bit later than normal. I apologize for that. The combo of recording with somebody in a different time zone by eight hours plus a short week was not doing us any favors this week, but I think you'll really enjoy this conversation with Brad.

he's somebody I've wanted to talk to for quite a bit, and he will definitely be back on in the future. Before we bring him in, though, this podcast is presented by RickRungGood.com. All of the stats that I use, all of the tools, you can find them all at RickRungGood.com-Andy. Plus, what I'm probably most proud of is the addition of the written content to the site there, too. So I do this Monday course breakdown, which...

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I laid it all out last week and we got the stacking part right. I stand by that decision. Unfortunately, I stacked far more what ends up being the wrong side. But what I try and do in the article is I'm never going to tell you what to do. I don't sell picks. I don't believe in doing that. That's not really what I'm ever trying to do. What I would rather do is just lay out the case and say, okay, here's what's going on.

here's what the weather is doing. Here's what it could do. Here's what I'm going to do. Here's what other people are probably going to do. But you can go about this in a bunch of different ways and do whatever you want. And I know from talking to a bunch of people in the Slack, a lot of people ended up doing big stacks in either direction. And so even if your AM PM stacks were dead, even just having a few good AM PMs

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access to all the written content, all the tools, ownership projections, a giant database of information, and a really great community. There's some really smart people in that Slack channel, and it's very active. And you can reach out to me for questions in there anytime as well. All right, let's bring in Brad.

All right. Bradley Todd is here. First time on the podcast. We've been circling this for a while. I think you have to be the most profitable golf better I think I've ever seen. It's an honor to have you. And thanks for making this time work, man. I just realized I was telling you, I've had three British guests in a row, which was not intentional. But thanks for waking up a little bit early, man. I know it's been a crazy enough week to begin with.

Yo Andy, thank you so much for having me and yeah, it's the fact that you keep waking up and putting yourself through a bit of pain to have us British guys on is brilliant man and I can't wait to chat the basketball with her.

Well, I think you guys have a lot of talent, man. I always learn something new when I talk to you guys, whether it's Bamford or you or Tom. I think you guys just approach it from a little bit of a different lens that, I don't know, I don't want to group all Americans into one bracket here, but I always feel like, oh man, I didn't really think of that angle there.

I think we're very, I don't know how I say that, but I think I'm pretty old school with the way in which I approach golf events. You know, I feel like I find with Americans, they're very, a lot of them are very model based. You know, I've never used a model. And so whenever I see people use a model, I find it like really interesting to just even compare against my own thoughts and stuff as well.

But yeah, there's so many different ways you can go about betting, especially on golf. There's no right or wrong way. Everyone's got a different opinion. And what matters is obviously getting the results. Well, speaking of which, and speaking of results, you made a pretty recent move to Patreon, which we were talking about a little bit off air. But I just, first of all, congratulations. And second of all, I wanted to give you a minute to kind of

plug what you're doing over there and kind of explain why you made that move before we get into the Valspar.

oh thank you man and uh yeah it was a big move something i was a little bit nervous and apprehensive about doing to be honest because obviously i've been putting up tips and my selections golf bets for on twitter for about two and a half three years and you know i've never thought of even having to charge or even anything like that but i got to the point where i'm just because i've been on so many tours it takes a lot of my time off in the week researching and stuff and

I was just like stupidly antisocial and not really, all this time I was going with my work on top as well, like my normal job. It was just crazy. So I thought, you know what, sod it, stop there, stop the work and just full send, full send this, you know, and try and put loads of, put it all into it and just see and,

if it would be a success or not. And I've just been overwhelmed by the response so far. So, yeah. And all that for everyone is, that's all linked in your Twitter, correct? Yeah, sorry. I really didn't advertise it very well there, but yeah, it's all on my Twitter. Yeah, Bradley Todd. And yeah, all the information's there.

And if you don't want to give the goods away on the podcast, in terms of, in terms of who you're betting, we can, we can kind of dance. We can kind of dance around the conversation. I've definitely got, I definitely got a few. I can, I'm going to share. Okay. All right. Wonderful. I won't pull you for, for the Asian tours or any of those. I know that's like, that's probably, that is probably more my bread and butter. If I'm absolutely completely honest, like there's only so much time I can sort of dedicate to certain events. So, uh,

I like to try and deep dive into everything I can. Obviously the PGA tour is a lot more to look at and a lot more available. But yeah, I'm so like, especially with what's listening to your content, mate. And I see like the level of detail that you go into, it blows my mind and I just, it's so impressive. And I just,

think that there's definitely stuff I don't look at which other people do and it's really interesting. Well, thanks, man. Maybe we can help each other this week and I want to get you back one time to, I'm so curious, I want to pick your brain about some of these other tours because I just, I'm sure those are markets that are really easily exploitable. Yeah.

So one other time, some other time, I'll have you back, maybe on like an off week or in December sometime or something like that. I would love that. I want to pick your brain about some of these other tours. But for now, let's stick to Valspar, man. So I already did a breakdown of my thoughts already on the Sunday show and in the Rick Run Good article. So I'll kind of just kick it to you, man. What are some of the things that you're looking for this week before we get into the odds? I think...

par five scoring over the years you know we've seen with the winners it's absolutely crucial to score well on the par fives long iron approach play it's huge uh bermuda putting bogey avoidance but i try not to get too stat crazy but they're the ones i sort of had a glance at and sort of took notes on certain golfers on um and yeah they're probably the four that we looked at

Are you a lot, unfortunately? This is where we completely meet in the middle. I don't want to bore listeners anymore with my super in-depth breakdown of these things. I wanted to ask you more about a non-quantifiable thing that I've been struggling with a little bit this week. One of the narratives I've noticed coming around is

People are tired from the players. That was a long week. What are your thoughts on that? Are you buying that? I'm also feeling pretty hungover from the players, to be fair. But yeah, I kind of like... Tom was going on, Tom Jacobs, about this narrative to me. And I think it makes a little bit of sense in some aspects. You know, the people that were in contention going into Monday. Whether you can put much stock into it, I don't know. But then if you start...

saying, yeah, they're all tired, then you think you're wiping out a lot of people on that board, aren't you? And I just don't know if that's the right thing to do from the off. So if you are maybe thinking about that, maybe try and get a bit of variance in your, I'd say, lineup for DraftKings. I'm a bit of a noob in that. But as in even in your betting card, you know, so you're not just fully stacked with people that have been playing

at the players on Monday. Yeah, I like that. I'm kind of lukewarm on it too. The other one that I was thinking about is I think a lot of people thought that a lot of the bigger name players were going to withdraw this week. Yeah, definitely. The reason why I actually didn't think that was going to happen was because these guys are so...

These guys are so damn meticulous about their schedule and they plan everything out like a year in advance. And I think a lot of these guys, their entire calendar is all about people's

peaking for that second week in April. Correct. Exactly. Peaking for that second week in April. So I said, no, these are valuable, valuable reps for JT and Xander and Morikawa and DJ. Like they're revving up right now. Do you think, are you maybe, and we can use this as a transition to get into kind of the favorites, but are,

Do you see a big name winning here or do you have that similar concern with me that maybe some of the bigger names might be kind of heading into masters mode? Yeah, I think I'm in the same mode as you. I say the same thinking of you, mate, because I just, as you said, I think that obviously looking ahead and thinking that the masters is obviously the priority. So they might not even be in like top gear, you know, coming into this and, and,

instead they might just focus on just playing some decent golf and whether it's that important to win or not but then saying that their win is at heart if they get a sniff of the contention and you know there are a few off the lead going into the final day they can't they won't be able to i would just say hey let's just play easy you know they'll they'll go after it you know because that's what they're like you know likes of dj morikawa hov and justin you know they they need they need to win as well they love it so

So they won't, they'll go for it. I don't know how to put my stock into the fact that they actually won't show up, but they'll definitely have the masters in mind. I like the fact I've taken them on, got to take them on.

I actually don't think this is like a terrible comp for the masters. I think if you look at some of the guys who have, who have succeeded, like I'm a big quotes guy. So I was, I was looking at some of the stuff that Paul Casey said, and Paul Casey talks about how these greens reminded him of Augusta. And you look at some of the guys like Spieth and, and Schwartzel and,

Zach Johnson's played well here too, I believe. So I can see it, right? I can understand why this is on their schedule. And of course, I don't... That's not just... If Justin Thomas kind of brings his A game, he's... Motivation be damned, he's going to win, right? So of this kind of top group...

JT, Hovland, Murakawa. I guess we'll lump DJ in there, even though his odds have kind of... I think DJ just... Odds just got smashed after his final round, right? I think he's going to get a little bit more popular this week than what he would have been if he didn't shoot that 63. Oh, yeah.

Oh yeah. So, so kind of of that group. And I guess we can throw like all the guys that I'm looking at. I'm using FanDuel right now, but I'm, I'm looking at those guys plus Sam Burns, Xander and Louie and Hatton are all the guys under 25 to one.

Who kind of interests you the most in that tier? I'm kind of skipping it completely, but I think there are a couple of interesting conversations around. Yeah, I'm skipping it. I think Tyrell Hatton is playing some smashing golf at the minute. And I think the only reason he sort of fell out of contention last week was

was because he just was going for it and fair play to him. I think he went on the 17th, he tried to go pin hunting and it didn't work out for him, but fair play to him. He was like a few shots back and he thought, you know, if I birdie this hole, I'll birdie the next. I mean, I'll post a score, I might have a chance, but I think Tyrell, he'd definitely come into my thoughts quite a lot this week and he's got pretty good form in...

in Florida, good location for him. I just like where his game is at the moment and he's definitely someone, out of the names you mentioned, without going as far down as the likes of Hovland, Morikawa and JT who definitely have the skill sets of course to win here. At the mod, I'd rather look a little bit further down and if I was, I'd say Hatem definitely appeals

You know, I kind of feel that way about Louis. I didn't end up, I know, I know. I shouldn't laugh. I absolutely, he was like one of my favorite golfers, like when I was getting into golf, so like growing up, so I shouldn't really laugh, but it's just,

It's become a bit of a joke now, hasn't it? That you just cannot win the life of him in the States. It's just sad to see because he so deserves it. And part of me buys that and part of me is like, all right, are we sure? Like, I don't know. So both at the Honda and at this tournament, he ended up as the number one guy there.

by all of the metrics that I looked at. I think this is a pretty near perfect course for him. If he was at 28, I think I'd probably have a little more interest. But seeing him at 20 and 24, I think I could live without him this week. The guy who's a little bit farther down who I did end up going to is Fitzpatrick, actually. There we go. Well, we're both on him then, man. I was very keen on Fitzpatrick this week. Very keen. Yeah.

Make the case. And then I want to tell you why I like him a little bit. Yeah, no, I've backed him. I've backed him through the roof this year. Me too. Yeah, I really have. And especially when you defeat, I feel like the win, he's a prolific winner in Europe. So obviously I've seen a lot of that.

But I'm just not prepared to quit. And I feel like a lot of people will give up, like maybe betting him. I haven't said that he seems pretty popular, surprisingly, but I thought a lot of people would be like, I've had enough of this guy now. He's just not winning and he's not even contending. I just feel like out of all of the courses on the Florida swing, I actually think this is probably one of the best fits for him because he's,

he's not he's a tactician you know Fitz he takes his time he can get creative and I think that's definitely something that is very important here you know I think to have that patience and to be able to make different shots and it was just the putter last week and the wind was just made it impossible to put in and you know with Fitzpatrick that putting is one of his best attributes so

Seriously, that's going to improve this week. There's no worry about that. And yeah, plenty of promise this year. Top 10 free occasions. Missed cut last week. Wrong side of the draw. So yeah, I just think he ticks a lot of boxes for this course. Par 5 scoring, of course.

He's been really good. Just wasn't last week, but I don't think it was for many people. And I just love the fact that his younger brother is in the field. Alex, I just feel like it could be written in the stars that he wins while his brother is in the same field. We have a narrative there. And I think it's going to spur Alex on as well, who's a very talented young player who might be worth the top 40 even this week. A lot of times we've seen amateurs lose.

show up like Ludwig Berg in Houston I think it was the Houston Open and I think even in this event a few years ago there was I can't think of his name I remember seeing it there was an amateur that finished sixth so who knows like he could be a good like play spec this week I've gone off on one there but yeah Alex Fitzpatrick could be as well as his brother a good play this week that could just both spur on a good performance

I may take you up on that Alex thing. I was actually, for some reason, I was looking at him a little bit too. He's a really good player in his own right. He's not his older brother yet, who I do, I think, you know, I like him for a lot of the same reasons that you do. He got the wrong side of the draw last week. He still almost grinded to make the cut. And the only reason that he didn't make the cut was because he didn't putt well at all. But I look at other courses like

tbc southwind and and even the players um has some of this too and harbortown as well and he's been good at all those places i feel like i use this comp with fitzpatrick every single time there's a hard course but there's there's probably some valderrama in here too right no oh yeah 100 yeah i mean valderrama riviera you know masters uh harbortown as you mentioned like they're all sort of

You can't really bomb and gouge them and you got to be a bit of a, you got to try and outsmart the course, you know, like have a little bit of patience around there and play the right shots. So yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense. It makes a lot of sense. I want to ask you about this kind of next group that includes, um,

Lowry and Brooks and Abe answer and co crack. And then I guess we can include like bizayden and Fleetwood in there too, but kind of after Fitzpatrick, I was, I was kind of having a tricky time deciphering through this group. I landed on two guys in this range, but, but you go first, who are some of the guys in this next range that have your attention? Um,

Honestly, I hated that he got my attention. But yeah, Keegan Bradley did get my attention. How can he not? Yeah. I know. Yeah. How can he not? But I've come to the conclusion it's probably just betting first round leader, which I think a lot of people just end up doing. And he's got a ridiculously, Tom, remarkably obvious record here. Off the bat, first round. So yeah, that might be actually just a play. Instead, Abraham Anser.

What a great record here and he's got a good record at Southwind obviously where he won, St Jude. It kind of tells in there. I just feel like he could be a good bet this week. I don't think there's anyone in the field who's played the course with a score average lower than him in starts.

So he's obviously taken a real fancy to this course and it makes quite a lot of sense given his skill set. And yeah, I quite like him. Jason Kograk, you know, doesn't need any form at all to just go well. He wasn't that great last week. I think he finished what he finished like.

middle of the pack. It's like T52 or something like that. Yeah, so that's absolutely fine. And I thought actually we might get a bit of a bigger drift on his price, but what is he? 33s, 35s? I've seen some rogue 40s, but mostly in that mid-30s range, yeah. So honestly, as we know with Kroger, he's a prolific winner now. He just doesn't need any form coming into something. And he said in the past, I was looking back at past interviews saying that

this is a course that he really admires and um obviously it's that you look at his results and he's played speaks for itself like and he's he's gone well at other um comp courses as well um which i have not got written down right now yeah riviera that's it yeah so i think that kokrak and um

Abraham answer were the two for me in that range. We worried about the fact that Friday of this tournament is St. Patrick's day for Shane Lowry. Yeah. I'm going to be celebrating that as well as we, he, he opened in the odds. I'm very sure. I think I saw like 20 to one 18 to one. And I was thinking, what on earth, like in what world is,

is no disrespect to Shane Lowry I absolutely love the guy I love Lowry too yeah I absolutely love the guy but in what world is he ever 18-20-1 in this level of field you know

So, yeah, he's drifted and I can see 25 now and that's not so bad. But still, for me, that's a bit skinny. I agree. Yeah, no, I agree. I was looking at Lowry, but I didn't love the number. I'm going to join you with with answer. I found a I found a 38.

Oh, juicy. Pretty good, right? Yeah. What were you looking at him like 30, 35? I still like him. Yeah, that range. Yeah, I still like him all the way down to 30. And I'm not the biggest answer fan, but I thought that 38 to one was a little bit high here for a guy that has already been really good at this course and is starting to really trend in the right direction. He had a very...

He had a very quiet start to the season, but the ball striking, it kind of started to come back last week. And this is actually the first time that he gained strokes in all four categories since his win at Southwind, which is another course that I think we both like a lot for a comp. So I like the number for him and the spot. I got to ask you about Tommy, who I feel like my British friends always have a better beat

on Tommy than I do. I love him this week, but I could be talked out of it as well. See, look, I've been really wanting Fleetwood to break through on the PGA Tour. I think a lot of people have for such a long time now. And even when I looked at that player's leaderboard after round one, I was thinking,

geez man this is it like what more do you want you're on the right side of the draw you've got a nice healthy lead as I was saying even if my bets come to nothing I was like Tommy come on I can't help but cheer him on but putter it's just the flat stick that is the issue with him and

I'm not sure if it was last week. I think he started to putt better. It was. What was interesting last week is he basically finished 20 at both the API and the players. And at the API, he did not hit the ball well at all. And the only reason why he finished top 20 is because he chipped and putted his ass off. Then at the players, he actually hit the ball really well and couldn't chip or putt.

see that's that's more tom the last uh performance yeah that's more of what he's been doing for his story yeah yeah exactly and um i know that he's been experimenting experimenting quite a lot with with putters that was when i last checked so i don't know if he's actually settled on one but if he started to get some joy i'm sure maybe

maybe he's settled. That's definitely the problem with him. Other than that, why not again? He loves Florida. Fantastic ball striker. When he's on song, he's really dialed in with the irons. So

It could be a good one. It could be a good one to take this week, possibly. But I couldn't, not even as a massive fan, I couldn't be on him at that price. Well, I'm starting to see 60s. Could that entice you? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Maybe there's a bit of British tax going on here with the...

Do you think that exists, by the way? I think it does. Yeah, honestly, I think it does because there's a lot of people that were just like, oh, yeah, Tommy, English guy, let's get behind him, you know, and maybe it was short. I think it does to a certain degree. Is Tommy like the...

I'm trying to think what the American, do people love Tommy? Like, is he like, is he the guy that people love betting on? Yeah. He's the guy that everyone roots for because he's just got a heart of gold, you know, it's just, uh, it's just a sweetheart. Yeah.

I don't think there's, and how can, I don't think anyone I've ever heard anyone say a bad word about Tommy Fleetwood. So yeah, I'd say he's probably the one that might. And I think Hatton, like a lot of people are like so 50-50 on. I absolutely love Hatton. I love that he just says it how it is. And he, you know, he just lets it all out. Absolutely. I love that. And I think it makes him the player that he is. If you took that out of it, I remember, I,

who was it who said it might have been Molinari might have been someone else it's like if you if you stopped him doing that he wouldn't be the golfer that he is you know um that's just has to be like that it gets him focused it gets him because you notice some people they throw their toys out the pram they fall to they fall to you know but with Hatton it's just natural for him you know he'll just get up next hole and even after like

looking like he's going to snap a club. It's just, so yeah, Tommy's definitely the nation's sweetheart that most people get behind, but I'm definitely a massive fan of Hatton as well. And Fitzpatrick, of course. Them three are just the guys that you just, I love to get behind, even if I'm not on them, like betting-wise. I don't know,

I became, and I've told this story, I think a couple of times on the podcast before. So forgive me for repeating myself, but to this day, the greatest round of in-person golf I've ever seen. And I go to a lot of golf tournaments. I've been going to golf tournaments with my dad since I was like six and I probably still go to four or five a year.

The greatest round of golf I've ever seen in my entire life was Tommy's. I think it was a 63 in the final round of the 2019 U S open at Shinnecock in windy conditions. It was the best round of golf I've ever seen in my life. I've never, I've never seen anything better. And I've watched everyone, you know, I've seen Xander shoot 60, but all tiger all the time. I've never seen somebody, uh,

because the wind was insane and obviously brooks fantastic wind player brooks had too much of a lead for him to for him to get it but i will never from that round it's it's burned me a lot of money over the years betting tommy fleetwood on hard courses and i i do think that

I do like him the best at majors, and I don't think his game's there quite yet. But I do think if you could get a situation where you can get him on a harder golf course in not a major field, I think that's probably the best scenario to bet Fleetwood at this stage of the game. Yeah, and I mean, even this week, if you're getting 60, if you can see 60s,

That's actually, I'd probably jump on board. I'm not even kidding like this. I don't want to make you too jealous here. I got a 66, Brad. Oh, shit. Yeah. Yeah. I'd be sold on that. I would be. That's enough to entice me to jump on the Tommy wagon again. Well, the other guy, and shout out Valderrama again, but I was looking at Bez a little bit too. Bez. Yeah. Yeah. I was looking at Bez.

I got a meal. I went with someone else that we'll get to at some point. Between those two, and I was just like, Bez, it suits Bez. But do I trust him if he gets in contention? Probably not is my answer. No. So do I want to bet him outright? And I'm not to say that he won't win eventually on the PGA. I'm definitely not ruling him out. And South Africans have got a pretty good record here.

and he's got the game he has got the game 100 for this test um but i've i've fought that quite a lot um across the florida swing and it's not that he's played bad but he's just been a

possibly a little bit underwhelming. Whereas he generates a lot of interest across the community. He has his backers and rightly so, but I don't think he's really rewarding them as much. And to see him at 66 is what I've got. I don't know what you've got, your side.

Somewhere in between like 46 and 66. He's kind of varying. Yeah. Okay. So I'll tell you who I was tossing up Bez with, and it was at the same price. And it's a bit of a funny one because it's not the approach numbers are awful. It's Kevin Kisner at 66 to 1.

And it was just... I was crapping myself last week, man. As a Smith backer, I was thinking, this is the kind of guy that's just going to come out of the pack, just go on an insane birdie run and get himself in the mix. He's a winner and he's...

he does it he does it his own way doesn't he uh if you don't get too sucked in with the stats like he was you can't with him yeah you can't with him you can't because he'll just find his own way of winning and like obviously last week he was first around the greens um what was he uh putting it was another great seven yeah it looked like he wasn't missing a bit like camera well not like cameron literally wasn't missing anything but yeah his parting performance was brilliant

I just feel like this is awesome. I was so surprised to see that he hasn't done well here in the past. I feel like it's his kind of course. Would you agree? Yes and no. I'll say the one concern that I have with him is you have to hit a lot of long irons on this course because they've got those five par threes. I think it's the long irons that he probably struggles with if I had to make a guess. It's a lot like Harbortown, but it's

It's a lot longer than Harbortown. So it kind of has the same character as Harbortown, except you just have longer approach shots here. So that would probably be the reason why he hasn't performed as well, would be my guess. But as we said, he can find a way. And he was playing stupidly well last week. And I think I probably got sucked in by that.

performance and like being actually terrified of him coming down the stretch that he was the guy.

And yeah, I just think he's obviously a shot maker, but you make a good point that maybe that will be the downfall is obviously the long par threes and the brush shots. It could be. Well, Spieth is probably of the elite players. Spieth is probably over a large sample size, the worst long arm player, and he's won here. So it's definitely not always a bridge too far. No. And I mean, if he's...

first around the greens as long as he's getting it up there around the greens and he's getting up and down and scoring but the problem is i don't know if i trust him enough to score well on the par fives i've just talked myself out of him well i thought you were gonna go since we were in such lockstep with fitzpatrick and answer i thought you were gonna go norrin

I have. I have got Noren. Let's do it. Let's do it. Yeah. Let's go back there. Yeah, I think it's because you went on Bez. And then I know in my head that I was toying with either Kisner or Bez. So I sort of went off on one on Kisner. But yeah, we've missed out Alex Noren. And yeah, I was on him last week and I'm going back again. And it's just similar reasons. He's just absolutely flushing it with the irons, isn't he? And it's not usually something...

he sort of struggled with in the past but he's eighth on approach last week and that's the second event in a row he's inside the top 10 and it's just that's just good consistency and obviously that's going to be very useful when tackling the the par 3s and stuff so yeah

It's just a flat stick, wasn't it last week? And, but that started to improve in the, in round four, I think he started to gain two stripes. He had a nice round four and that's, that's always like, that's always a thing. And this is kind of my argument for Billy at Billy Horschel at the API is when you, when you got guys like Noren and Horschel that are great long-term putters and great long-term short game guys. And,

And suddenly they find something with the irons. Not saying it's going to last forever, right? But they get on these little runs where they're gaining five on approach. I'm just going to bet them because I think it's a lot easier to flip the putter than it is to flip the ball striking. So when good...

when good putters flip their ball striking i think it's an easier bridge for them to climb so i'm with i'm i'm with noren too i'm sticking on for this i was on him at the honda and the players and and i i see no reason to hop off would you i got him at 75 i think that got hit though i think he got hit to like 55 yeah that's such a nice number i got him at 50 to 1 so just uh

I still like him at that though. I still like him at 50 to 1 and he was good on his debut at Copperhead last year. He opened with a 73 and went 68, 70, 68. So it's very encouraging as well. So he sort of worked out the course.

The final three rounds. Well, you guys have the each ways too, right? Yeah. That's very much part of my betting. It's the each way. It gets me out of jail. So with the each ways, because they don't have them where I'm at yet, but basically it's like top eight, right? Yeah. A lot of the time. Sometimes there'll be a top six as well, but you...

Yeah, it varies with different books, but top eight is very common for the PGA Tour. That's normally what we get, which is fine, which is just enough on Lauren. I could see him finishing in the top eight. You know, I wish that because we're going to talk about some – there's actually a ton of guys over 100 to 1 that I like this week, and that's when I really wish that I had –

that I had that too, because I'm sure, I mean, if you, if you, and that's why I see, I feel like a lot of, a lot of the people that have access to each ways, I see them taking more chances down the board. Oh, yeah. Yeah. A hundred percent. I actually haven't gone over, uh,

anyone over 100 to one this week, which is unlike me. I got some good sales for you, man. I can't wait to hear it. Honestly, though, that is exactly that. I've had some massive places in the past. Someone places at 150 to one, fifth of the odds. It's like a 30 to one winner, isn't it? What can we get on Alex Fitzpatrick this week?

I was thinking top 40. I think I saw a 7-1 top 40 I looked at yesterday. And that is something I might hear.

Let's have a look. You can get 1,000 to 1, eight places with Coral, Alex Fitzpatrick over here. I think you can even boost that as well. That's pretty good. I'm seeing 650 to 1. Yeah, that's pretty good. Finally, I've got a better price than you. I mentioned there are some guys above 100 that I want to talk about, but

Who else should we mention in this range getting up to 100? I know I've seen a lot of Gary Woodland love. There's the Webb Simpson conversation. He's down to 70 to 1 now. Who in this range do you think we're not giving enough attention to? I think there's a couple. I haven't backed them, but...

I mean, I find it really tough to back Tringale. But at the same time, I find it really tough. I think I could count on one hand how much I have in the past. But he's definitely, with some of his comp course form, he's one to consider. Russell Knox is playing some great stuff. Patton Kazir, again. Kevin Stroman, both of those come into my thoughts.

But yeah, I couldn't land on any of them. I couldn't, but they're definitely worth probably talking about and come. Yeah. What about Aaron Wise? I was looking at Aaron Wise. I mean, he got, so I got him at, he was at 130 and then it got hit really hard. So now he's kind of in this like,

80 and 90 range, which I don't really love as much. But I think it's a good time to buy on Wise. I mean, I think he's pretty fairly priced in this field, and he gained 8.2 ball striking at the putter.

at the players. Now the putter, the putter was absolutely all classic. The classic putter is not working, isn't it? Exactly. And it was absolutely awful. But in the, in the false swing, he kind of had the putter figured out a little bit. And now as soon as the putter, and now as soon as the ball striking really came back for him, the putter has kind of left him a little bit. I kind of like that a little bit. Sometimes when I see that in players, when I see that,

They have all things right now. They're not really always matching them up in the correct week. But Wise's putter over the past couple months has improved, and now the ball striking has come back. So I think it's a good time to buy on Wise. He was like – I don't know if you remember this, but he was –

I mean, he was like 40 to one at a couple, at a couple events later in the fall swing. And he was like kind of everyone's darling there for a little bit. Yeah, it was. And I, again, I'm seeing the best price 70 to one 50 to one is low. It's the lowest, but,

But, I mean, again, I like the fact that he's also played here in the past as well. Like, Ben, he's got a 67 in there in one of his rounds. So that's also very encouraging. And as you said, it could be a good time to buy on him. Yeah, I like it, mate. Yeah.

I feel like me and you are, so you're not doing Woodland because Woodland's maybe the most popular bet I've seen this week. I was really put off. I know he's been, he's had three top tens this season. Yeah. His game's definitely looking like a bet, but I got put off. I don't think he was wrong side of the draw. Was he? No, he wasn't. That's what I was saying too. And he shot 70, he shot 78. Um, uh,

And that put me off. I'm going to be honest. That was what put me off. That's a good reason to be put off, though. That's a good reason to be put off because I looked at that. And then I also thought about, and I'm a huge woodland guy. I'm the biggest woodland guy. That was my first bet I learned, like the US Open.

Oh, yeah. I was there in person. He's the best. And he's a good guy, too. He's got a good head on his shoulder. Oh, yeah. He's a lovely guy. He's one of the best you'll meet. But not only did he have that bad round, but he pretty much chipped and putted about as well as he was going to chip and putt.

at the Honda and API and he still didn't hit it well enough to win and this is his fourth week in a row now I look at that sometimes I don't always love guys that are playing like four or five weeks in a row especially when they're a little bit closer to 40 I think he kind of had his chances and I think I think you missed it a little bit I think you're chasing a little bit with this one

Yeah, I can agree with that. Yeah, for sure. 100%. Well, I mean, I'm trying to think if there's anyone else in this ring. You think Webb's kind of unbettable right now? I think so. Yeah. I need to see something a bit more from Webb. Yeah, I can't. Obviously, it makes a ton of sense on paper, but I don't think his game is nearly ready to contend. Yeah.

What about Hadwin? Hadwin's another popular guy that I've seen this week. I can definitely understand the love for Hadwin. He's a previous winner here, and he finished with a nice five-under par in the last week, which I think might have slaughtered his price a little bit. He might have got him at 90 to one, 80 to one possibly, but he was as short as 66 is here.

But yeah, he's got some fun. I don't know, weirdly, I kept on seeing like 3M. I kept on seeing like similar names pop up and it's not really a good comp at all. But weirdly, like names are just popping up on the leaderboards from both events.

I think Strillman as well. And yeah. Keegan's been good at both, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I remember looking at it last night. It was just blew my mind a little bit because I don't think anyone's,

mentioned it and rightly so it probably isn't too much stuck into it but yeah there's a few a few other places he's shown up and then which makes a lot of sense but i think he screams is it obvious hadwin you know is it a trap possibly because he's got such a good record here in the past hasn't he he's not only one i think he's had a 12th place is yeah yeah

He's looked good this year. Second top ten of the season last week.

Yeah, signs are good. So I can understand why people might take a chance on Hadwin this week. I think it's easy to do the course history thing with Hadwin and Keegan and Bubba and Woodland. And I get it. I like all those guys. But I think that's so baked into their price. And I look at these guys' odds from week to week. And these guys like Hadwin and Keegan and Knox, like...

you're betting them at double the price a month ago and you're going to bet them at double the price a month from now too. These books will bake this course history into the price. You look at these guys' odds from week to week, they'll move them like crazy and get people to bite. My concern with Hadwin is I just think if you're buying Hadwin, just know you're probably buying Hadwin at

his all time peak price when he just finished top 10 at the players and is going to a course he's won before at is probably the thing that I would advise against.

That's 100% right, yeah. Go ahead, sorry. No, no, I was just saying that it's just so, like, that is the case on so many occasions, isn't it? Like, someone finishes well at an event and you probably don't, I didn't expect Hadwin to show up last week. Honestly, I didn't. No disrespect to him and it's just classic that he has and I reckon a lot of people probably had him in mind for this despite his performance at the players because he's shown enough this year that his game is in good shape, so yeah.

Yeah, but hey, as you said, you've got to buy into that.

Let's talk about some of these longer guys. So I know that you haven't, and we could talk about them also in like a top 20 or top 40 or DraftKings. Do you guys have DraftKings over there? I've just started playing this year. It's so much fun. I'm really getting into it. It's a blast, right? Yeah, it's so much fun. And I suck. I really suck. But I cashed my first lineup at the Honda. And I just actually stuck my six outrights in defensively.

Didn't get too creative and yeah, it did really well. And that was a nice little buzz, you know, like from losing a shit ton the last previous week. So yeah, so now I'm hooked. I'm properly hooked on it and give it some time, try to give it some time every week. I'm a bit behind this week. Well, I'm going to give you, I'm going to give you a couple of guys that I like. I want to start with, and I bet this guy outright too. I think my favorite play on the board this week is Alex Smalley at 181. Nice.

Now, he's a Duke guy, and I guess we missed each other by a year, but I've got some mutual friends with him who say he's really legit. And the first thought that I had when I was going through all of my Innisbrook stuff is, oh, damn, this really reminds me of the course that we played at Duke.

And I think Strelman's played well here too. And Hadwin's a Duke guy too. So maybe there's something to that. And he just finished 38th at the API.

gained five strokes, ball striking, lost three putting. I like him on harder courses. 15th at the Houston Open. He keeps making the cut at Riviera and Honda and Bay Hill and Torrey. He made the cut at all those places. Good fields on hard golf courses. Can he win? Probably not, but I think I'm onto something here with him in DraftKings. Yeah.

Yeah, definitely. And even when he came, he's been a player I've been following for quite a while, like from the Canadian tour, McKenzie tour. And even when it was in the lockdown, yeah, they were doing like some local, like the Q series, likewise Q series. And there was a few events and he was just popping up on leaderboards. I was tracking them. I was like, he's good, man. I was like, who is this guy? And then, and then I saw him get a start.

on the PGA Tour this is before he even had his card and yeah what was it I'm trying just looking now um yeah a Thai full team at the Corrales Punta Cana Resort and Club which is massive you know for someone that hasn't got status on the tour to just rock up and just

get a top 20 like that it sort of says it all and not surprisingly he got his card at the corn fairy tour championship you know at the finals he's just a great addition and he hasn't looked out of place at all like with his performances this year and this this season in general um so i i am i'm big on alex smalley like like you i think he's going to be um a winner at some point

Before I, do you want to kind of go back and forth on some of these guys? Do you have any guys, I know you didn't bet anyone above 100 to one, but who probably down here before I give you some just absolutely gross ones, maybe has your attention for top 20s or DraftKings or anything of that nature? I think Martin Laird. Yeah, I bet Martin Laird.

I love Martin Laird. I love Martin Laird. Such a solid player. You know, you know, he's good. Yeah. Yeah. He's not going to throw away any cheap shots. He's nice. Good. Scores well on par fives and we're just going to be huge here, but just general, just a very well-rounded player. And I think he could be a good one for a top 20 this week. Possibly Troy Merrick. Yeah. He's,

sneakily good year so far. Has a good record at this course. So he's, there are two players that did come into my mind. Yeah. You know who, all right. So the next guy I'm about to give you,

This guy led the entire field in the Players' Championship in stroke-scan approach through 34 holes because he withdrew with two holes to play in his second round. But this guy is 200-1. Do you have any guesses on who that is? Jesus Christ. You probably won't. I actually don't think that his numbers will go up on most stat sites because I think a lot of sites will count it as a withdrawal.

I have no clue, man. I'll be honest with you. Danny Lee. Oh, Danny Lee. Yeah, Danny Lee. First round leader. Yes. So Danny Lee got the wrong side of the draw.

And he led the entire players championship in approach. The issue was that he lost 12 strokes putting and three strokes off the tee. So he was, he wasn't even near the, is the craziest stat line I've ever seen it. And I look at this stuff all day, but yeah, he was, he was plus nine on approach and,

plus minus 12 putting. And then he withdrew with two holes to play. I've never seen anything like that. And I just, I said, there's, I think there's upside there. Like 95% of this field is incapable of hitting their irons like that. And he was kind of on my radar in the fall. Like, remember he almost won the Bermuda and he, he picked up a lot of distance too. And, and he actually plays this course really well too. So, um,

He's gone seventh and 21st in his last two appearances. And I didn't, you know, I saw him. I woke up this morning.

And he was 280 to one. And I was like, that's Danny Lee. There's no like no one else is thinking Danny Lee besides me. And then I went back to bet him earlier this afternoon and he went to like he went to like 175. So there's there's clearly someone crazy enough for me that's also betting Danny. I got him at 200. I think down to 175 is like fine with him, too.

100% I can't believe how well he's played it actually it's crazy I just looked over it completely but yeah he's someone also Keegan Bradley sort of right there are two people that can just come out hot you know so they might be he might also be worth sprinkling a bit on the first round leader

Is there a bit of a Mito obsession where you guys are at all? I think there is. I mean, if Mito Pereira's name was like Adam Smith or something like that, I doubt it'd be nearly as popular. But I absolutely love Mito because- I love him this week. Yeah. Yeah. For this week, 100%. Yeah. Makes a lot of sense.

just in general because I had a lot of success I bet him twice on the corn throw tour where he's won 100 to 1 33 to 1 so I was very much on the bandwagon when he come on the PGA tour with everyone else you know we're all betting him together each week and expecting him to do wonders and but the

He's there. The talent is there. He's 160 to one now. How are you going to bet if you were one of the guys that bet him at 40 and 50 and 60? Can't hop off now. This is when I'm hopping on. Yeah, no, exactly. Yeah. You hop on on the dip. He's a really nice price. 125 is the best.

This end, um, uh, still just, I think anything in the triple digits is a nice little, nice little bomb. Nice little bomb play this week. Yeah. I think to answer your question, I think, I think I figured it out. It's like 33.3%. The people that were betting the corn fairy tour and hit on him, uh,

33% the name and 33% the numbers. Because if you look at the numbers, he's going to pop in all of the models that people are running. He shows as the best value on the board for me by far. So again, I saw him at 160. I was like, I'm fine on Mito this week. This isn't a buzzy Mito week.

Got hit, too. I ended up getting him at 125. So, you know, I'm still fine with that. I think anything in the triple digits is pretty good with me here. I have a couple more guys I could throw out. They're pretty gross. Oh, I love them. I love the gross ones, yeah. What about Luke Donald? 430 to 1? No? No.

no why not absolutely like lives in lives in florida location form is there he's won here one here yeah there you go that's enough for a bomb isn't it and he's been playing he's been showing some good signs as luke so at that price might be worth a sprinkle yeah the irons are pretty good i i think at 6.4 in draft kings i think he's a good good top 40 play and

He's, like I said, he's won at this course. He's played here 12 times. He's only missed the cut once. And this is even like, even since I went back to look, because sometimes the course history can be misleading. Like I don't want to, I don't, I know Luke Donald was world number one. Luke Donald's not world number one. So I don't want to look at the stuff that he did when he was world number one. He makes the cut here, even when he's kind of lost it a little bit too. So I think Donald, I think Donald's in play here.

Wesley Bryan is 550-1. Sell me on him. So he's won the Heritage, and he's finished seventh here before. And he's 550-1 and 6.3 in DraftKings, and he gained over three strokes on approach in his last start. It's good enough for me. Hits his long irons really well. Yeah.

What about Hayden Buckley? I don't know what price he's... Has he drifted to a nice price? Yeah, that's another guy. He kind of had a moment there. I think it was the Sanderson's where...

He played really well at the Sanderson. He went into like Mito Pereira territory, didn't he? Where everyone was sort of... I know. And then it just... And then it just... Like Chad Ramey too. Like these guys... I think people are like right on them a lot of the time. But I think... I think they give up really quickly. And then the price just fluctuates like crazy when they don't have a good week. Yeah, definitely. I can see 350 to one on Buckley. That's good. That's just... That's huge. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, I can kind of see this bit, Buckley having some success. He obviously hasn't been nowhere near putting in the performances as he was earlier on in the year.

But it could be a good time buying the dip. It's a funny one this week, isn't it? There's so many ways in which you could tackle it. I haven't gone anywhere in the triple digits, but now I'm looking. There's a few that might just tickle my fancy. There's some good ones, man. Yeah, there are. I'm normally very much the kind of guy to have at least two or three

on my betting card, but yeah, not this week. But actually now I've gone through with you, it's sort of, I'm getting a bit of an appetite. Yeah. Vaughn Taylor is 430 to one. Yeah. I was on him in his last start. Puerto Rico? Puerto Rico. Yeah. He'd just come up short of the places for me, but he's playing well. And I think he was gaining on every stroke game metric and just game was in good shape.

So yeah, he could show up here. Maybe it could be a top 40 player. Yeah. He was good here last year too. I think I've covered everyone that I wanted to talk about. I love, I went pretty crazy down. I didn't,

I didn't like any of the top guys that much this week. So I ended up rolling with Smalley, Mito, Danny Lee, and Laird all down here, but all above 125 to one. Oh, and I got wise at one 32. That's ridiculous. That might be the best number I've heard. I don't know. Norrin Norrin as well. What did you get? Yeah. Outrageous. I'm just, I gotta say I wake up. I'm on the West coast. So I,

My friends, most of the people that I talk golf betting with are on the East Coast. So what I'll do is I'll tell them, I'll be like,

I think these are going to move a lot of the times, like these books, when they first open, some of these numbers get hit really hard. So I'll be like, you have my, here's the money. You have my blessing to hammer this guy. If you see the number and the number doesn't check out for you. So I got, I got my, my friends that, that really helped me out with that. Shout out, shout out to all my friends. You know who you are. It's good to have them and friends in the community, isn't it? They can do you a favor like that. It's good.

I was just going to ask, it's pretty legal where you guys are. It's pretty easy because I need to go through, I need to jump through all these hoops to get my bets in still. Yeah, no, it is. And I

I do. I feel sorry sometimes, you know, because obviously I've got a lot of Americans who follow me and they always wonder the best way to go about betting because obviously they can't follow the same methods in what I have. So I normally just say bet the outright and bet the top 10 and split the stake, like the same stake either side. But also the fact that you have to drive places to

to uh have a bet it just blows my mind you know why should it why is it that difficult and why is it legal in some states and not others and it's just it's crazy it just it blows my mind a little bit but i love the fact that you put in the effort you know i i love the grind that you some of the stories that oh yeah i'm just gonna drive uh two hours into the other state and just

put the bet on for the week. I love that. I absolutely love that. Preston Pysh : Have you ever been to the States? Last question, then we'll get you out of there. It's weird time for both of us. Jason Lowery : Yeah. I've got family in North Carolina. I went a lot when I was a kid. Preston Pysh : Where? I went to school down there. Jason Lowery : I'm not sure. I've never visited there. But I visited my uncle who lived in a Thousand Oaks

which is fucking gorgeous. So I stayed with him in California for two weeks. That's right. That's right next to me too. That's like 15 minutes. What's the golf course called again? Oh,

Which one? There's a lot. No, I know the one which is target wise. It's got, uh, Wayne Gretzky lives above it. Sherwood. Sherwood. That's it. Thank you. Yeah. So they had, his house was on that. Yeah. His, uh, the garden was overlooking the course, but it was just some of the best two weeks of my life. I remember, um, staying there when I was about 11 years old. Um, so yeah, I've been, uh,

New York as well. I've traveled America a little bit, but not since I've been older. More when I was a kid, so I'd love to get back out there. And there's so many golf courses I want to play in America as well. Do you play at all? I do, yeah. I played a lot when I was a kid, but I haven't because I lived in China for four years. Recently, I came back last July. So basically, I haven't played for four years. So since I've come back, I'm just getting on the grind again. I've got a lot to fix.

I'm a fucking really strong right-hand grip at the moment, which I'm trying to get rid of. I'm not hitting my driver well at all. I'm hitting my iron as well. But I'm just getting there. I'm just hitting the range. I'm hitting the range as much as I can. My brother's a very good golfer, so he's sort of helping me out.

I'm dying to play some of the courses out there. I've never played in Ireland or Scotland or England or any of those places. And me and my buddies have a... Yeah, we've got an Ireland trip planned for September and I'm just counting down the days already. Nice. I haven't even played in Ireland. But yeah, like you, it just has to be done. It's just some absolute corkers.

some corkers out there. Yeah. Totally buckle his stuff. I can't wait. Well, Brad, it's been an absolute pleasure, man. Thank you again for waking up early for me. We're, I'm going to take you up on a deep dive on some of those other tours at some point. And I'm sure we'll, we'll do this again many times in the future, man. I'm, I'm super excited for you with the Patreon stuff. And, and before we get out of here one more time, give, give a very proper plug to,

to all of the listeners that should be checking out all of your stuff going forward on your Patreon. Oh, thanks again, Andy. Yeah. If you want to check out my Patreon or just me in general, then you can find me on Twitter, Bradley Todd. And basically I'm just working my nuts off each week, trying to get the best bets across all the tours. If you're interested, then yeah, by all means jump on board. But yeah,

Thank you so much, Andy, again for having me on. It's been so cool to chat with you. And I know that it's early where I am and late where you are. And I feel like maybe I haven't been at my...

You know, utmost best, highest spirits this morning. I feel, you know, it's been a long week, hasn't it? I've been really, really enjoyed speaking golf with you, man. I really hope to do it again in the near future. No, you've been, you've been awesome, man. I imagine because we got the, we got the time wrong.

as well. I screwed up the time. So like you literally just hopped out of bed. Exactly. You literally just hopped out of bed and did this. And the first time you always talk to someone on a podcast, you don't ever know the other person's cadence. And I don't, I can't see you either because you're, you don't have a camera. So I can't even see like your voice, your crappy Chinese laptop, which is my next investment.

which is super hard to do a podcast with because you can't really see when the other person's about to speak or not about to speak. So I would say considering all of the time difference stuff, the short week...

We handled ourselves pretty well, man. We're absolutely going to have to do it again. Definitely. And I just want to say, keep continuing to smash it, man, because just honestly, your podcast is so informative and I couldn't recommend anyone more to check it out. Yeah. I love it, man. Just keep doing what you're doing. I appreciate it, man. It was great to see you and we'll do it again soon. Thanks for joining me, buddy. Oh, take care, dude.

All right. That's it for the show. Special thanks to Brad. You can find me later this week on the scramble odds checker articles, Wednesdays and Saturday mornings, plus the premium articles on Rick run good.com. And then back on this podcast feed.

Next week, we've got the match play, which is the one year anniversary of this podcast. So of course, we're bringing back my first ever podcast guest to do the second annual bracket show. I'll probably do a solo Sunday one too, although we'll see. It's kind of a weird tournament to handicap, obviously, but exciting stuff coming up. Masters is less than three weeks away and best of luck with your bets this week. Cheers.

If I ventured in the slipstream Between the viaducts of your dream Where mobile steel rims crack And the dead send a back road stop

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