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All right, welcome in Inside Golf Podcast. Special bonus episode today. It's Tuesday afternoon. PGA Championship Week has been an absolute cesspool of content.
But I've wanted to have this person on for a while. Kobe is somebody that I've developed a friendship with over the past couple of months. He's somebody that I really trust and value the opinion of, that I talk golf with pretty much every day. And I've buried the lead a little bit, but he's been on the craziest DraftKings run I've ever witnessed in my life. Multiple GPP takedowns.
hundreds of thousands of dollars already this season. And I think you'll understand why he's had so much success after listening to this episode. Before we get to Kobe, this podcast is presented as always by RickRungGood.com. You can find all of the stats and tools, ownership projections that we talk about on this podcast, plus all my written work, Wednesday DraftKings article, full course breakdown, all that good stuff. So head on over to RickRungGood.com.
Promo code Andy. Major championship weeks are a great time to sign up. You can hop in the Slack channel with people like me and Kobe. Make your own models. Tell me why I'm wrong. It's all a very fun time. Really quickly also, last thing, want to give a shout out to the betting show that I put out with Jeff Feinberg this morning. That's a fun one. If you are a
betting guy and DFS is not your thing. We're only talking DFS on this show. Jeff and I break down the entire betting board. That show's already out, plus some NFL futures, and I reveal my early Super Bowl pick. So please be sure to check that one out as well. And one more reminder, leave a review on Apple Podcasts. It takes approximately 27 seconds to
I work really hard on these weeks to try and put out a lot of good information and do it all for free. And when you guys leave a review, it helps me out so much more than you know. Plus, you'll be entered into a draw to win $200. So it's free money for 30 seconds of your time. Just make sure to leave your email or Twitter handle so I know how to get in touch with you if you win. All right. Let's talk to Kobe. All right. Kobe DuBose is here.
in the United lounge, you're on a flight headed to Dallas in a few hours, and you were already in court this morning. My biggest question to you is how do you have time? How do you find the time to be checking on this Tulsa wind every five minutes, like everyone else? Yeah.
That's a good question. I've become a very good multitasker. Between my career with my 40 or 50 clients and then conversations with 10 people and following the golf, I don't know is the answer. It feels like I need 30 hours a day.
Well, give us a little background. I mean, you're not the typical content provider that I have on my show, but you're here for a reason. And I would imagine that most people that are listening to my show, considering the fact that I reference you a good amount at this point, are probably familiar a little bit with your background. But for those who aren't, just give a little background on your DraftKings history. I thought you did an excellent job on, what was the name of that podcast that you went on?
Yeah. The Emotional Bankroll podcast with Brian Chester. I think he interviews people and gives their stories. Pretty cool. Yeah. That was good. So give like the five-minute abridged version before we get started on Southern Hills. Yeah, sure. So I'm a criminal defense lawyer by day. I guess pretty much exclusively a PGA DFS player by night. Don't really do any other sports. I guess I got out of law school in 2013. I
a lot of interest in baseball initially, but you know, since then it's really been golf, golf, golf. Um, I guess I came to some prominence, uh, starting in November, just had a series of, um, I don't know, great weeks. I won a GPP at the RSM for $70,000 and, um,
I took third in the Sony for 25 grand. I won the big, the $3,100 contest at the Phoenix open for another hundred. And then the masters just took podium finishes. A lot of big contests for about one 80 turned around the next week and won $360,000 at the heritage. And,
So it's been nuts. Honestly, about $700,000 in GPP winnings in the last- I undersold it. I feel bad now. I think in the tweet, I was like, he's won 500K. I undersold it. That was just in one week, right? That Sunday to Sunday for the Masters of Inheritance was nuts. I don't know. Life changed a little bit in that seven days. So it's been an interesting run. People kind of ask me like,
You're kind of weird. You're not the typical DFS guy behind a computer screen. You're going to court in the morning and then you're doing golf at night. So I guess people have been interested in my story. Has your life changed a lot? I mean, I think that's probably we got kind of a question. We'll get to some of the questions that we got on Twitter at the very end. But, you know, I would imagine that it's probably hard to go to your day job the next day after winning 300K, right?
Yeah. So I actually took a case pro bono the next Monday and got given my office and did not have the money to hire me for the kind of case he had, you know, kind of tugged at my heartstrings. And I, uh, I thought, well, you know, this would be a really, really good time to do this one for free. And it ended up working out because it didn't take that much work to get the case resolved. Um, I don't know. Life's pretty much the same, right? I'd just go home and hang with my wife and do my research and watch golf. Um,
you know, just a slightly nicer brand of bottled water. And I guess we're looking at nicer houses. So that's, you know, the future is, I think I put some money in the bank to make for a better future, but my day-to-day life, not too much different. You're just like Scotty Scheffler. He got asked what he's going to do after he wins the masters. And he's like, I don't know. I'm probably just going to watch the office with my wife.
Yeah, pretty much. She's been pretty pumped about the, I don't know, it's kind of life changing money. That's the nice thing about the GPP. That's why we do this, right? If you can get it right in the right spot, you can put some money in the bank that makes life easier 20 years from now. So I think we all are looking for that. Last question and then we'll get into the slate here. Did you book, how long ago, I know you're going to abandon, how long ago did you book that trip?
Hmm. God, uh, probably had to be February of last year. Like it's before, before any of your big wins. Yeah. So I, you can ask my, my wife, she's like, you can't make band in an annual trip. I'm like, well, why not? Um, so I try to keep one of those trips on the books, you know, I've been a few times the last few years. So obviously if you want to go there, you, you gotta be out ahead of it. So I had that one booked a while ago.
That one, first time? This was my fourth. Okay, wow. I went by myself right when COVID. I left, I was in Vegas when the players got canceled and my wife was staying there for a bachelorette and I was supposed to go to LA for a golf tournament and everything got canceled. And I called a band and I'm like, hey, I know people probably cancel because of this weirdness. You got any spots? And they're like, yeah, come on. So I went by myself literally as the world was crashing and then this will be the fourth time there. It's awesome.
That's also the one more thing that you guys don't know about Kobe. He's also what you shot your scratch golfer to.
On a good day. I'm about a two. I played really well the other day. I hit the ball a long way, so if I could ever dial in the wedges, I can play pretty well. Some of us, I guess. Well, you're locked to come back for the Memorial Park episode because you play that course a lot. I guess we'll start getting into this. Is there any weight in that comp? I mentioned it earlier. I wanted to ask you about that too because I know you play that course all the time.
Yeah, I probably play it once every two or three weeks. Hard to get on these days. It's a really good golf course for $38. Dope. Come on. Yeah. Unbelievable. So, you know, I think it is the uneven Bermuda rough, I think is so important, probably a little bit underrated, uh,
And at Memorial Park, you just get these really weird lies. I think you see in the tournament there, you'll see guys that they think they're covering the water from 170. And then, you know, I watched Mark Leishman there last year just come up and Terrell Hatton too, same group that came up like 25 yards short. And it was just the rough just eats them up. I think the green surrounds there.
difficult the greens are about medium size they're not huge they've got you know lots of different areas where they where they pin them and if you miss by five yards off some of these pins you're just getting ejected that's what we deal with every day out there and i think this course has some similarities and i know you know gilhous and tom doe they worship maxwell yeah you know they have their different styles we both played their golf courses but i think uh and
And of course, like Memorial where Dope was a little more reserved than he might be elsewhere. I think their styles when they're designing courses for the tour and for majors to play, I think their styles kind of coalesce a little bit. So I don't think that's a bad comp. You know, it's interesting. We were talking about this a little bit too.
And you probably consume more content than I do. I'm trying to get there because you were one of the people that really helped me understand how important it is to try and figure out the narrative that people are forming.
I'm either going to lose like every single last dollar this week or get a hit bid because some of the takes that I've heard about Southern Hills, some of the directions that it seems like people are going, I could be completely off. I mean, I hope not because I've played that golf course before and I've been talking to caddies all week, but I've been pretty shocked with some of the breakdowns I've heard thus far about Southern Hills.
I've seen it compared to everything from Beth Page Black to, I mean, just some very short courses. It has zoysia. It has zoysia grass rough too, Kobe. You know, they must have been doing some serious planning in the last couple of weeks. I did hear today they resided the greens a little bit. So maybe they put zoysia on the greens too. Somebody down there. It's hard with a course that we don't see a lot, right? People just get, I don't know, they begin to...
they begin to really form their own narratives and without really looking at it, then you get something in your mind. It's hard as the week goes along. Once you've committed yourself to some idea of what this course is, you know, a lot of people don't know how to backtrack off of that when they gain new information. And they're used to it, right? We all know how heritage is going to play and whatnot. When you get a new course, people seem to be really in the weeds this week, which is good. If you can figure it out, that's good.
One narrative that I mean, nothing, nothing would surprise me at this point because I continue to be shocked about some of the things I've heard about this golf course thus far. But I think the big thing that's kind of starting to formulate on Tuesday afternoon is the weather.
And this is obviously something that we were going to talk about and we talk about every single week. But I'm very interested to see where people go with this one, because as it stands now, I'm looking at Richard Lloyd Jones Airport Wind Tower, which is the tower that I've been instructed to use.
It's a pretty significant advantage just like in a vacuum on the surface, right? Like I look at Thursday morning, we've got, you know, between 8 and 14, 15 miles per hour in the morning with 23 to 17 mile per hour gusts. But then you look starting at 1 p.m., it kind of goes 15 to 18 with 17 to 39 miles per hour gusts. They're probably going to finish their tee times around 5, 6 p.m.,
And then again, on Friday, 50 mile per hour gusts at 7 a.m., 35 mile per hour gusts at 10 a.m. But then you look at 1 p.m., it goes all the way down to 21. And 4 p.m. is like playing in a dome. 4 p.m. is like 7 mile per hour gusts, 7 mile per hour consistent wind speeds, 8 mile per hour gusts.
I have a lot of friends in Oklahoma. You're from Texas. The running joke in Oklahoma is predicting the weather a day before as a fool's errand. This is also like pretty hard to look past. Do you have a lean here? Like let's, let's dive into it. Yeah. So, I mean, if I look around a golf in Houston and Houston is not North and West Texas and Oklahoma, right. We're, we're more Gulf coast, a lot of wind in Texas, but when you get up in the panhandle toward Oklahoma, uh,
I mean, you're in the Dust Bowl. It's a different world. This is more Kansas and Nebraska style, just windswept than you're going to get even in Dallas. Dallas doesn't get up into that Dust Bowl. But when I look around, even here, it's so windy that I usually wait till noon to book my three o'clock rounds because you never know when you wake up. They get that in Oklahoma. But anytime I see a graph
on wind finder with it all coming up in the middle right thursday going up right anytime i see that i i know you have to take notice i i remember this happened a little bit at the valspar where there was a pretty significant wind advantage and it was right after the players so i think everybody had been a little bit um i don't know i guess they've been most people got weathered out yeah yeah burnout on weather and there was a real wind advantage the valspar and i went 100 percent
I don't remember what wave it was, but I did 100% of my player pool. I finished third in one of the big GPPs doing that. And I didn't, it just felt a 10 mile an hour. And that wasn't like this, right? I mean, here we're getting, when I start seeing 30s and 40s on a golf course like this, I mean, you have to take notice. I don't,
I don't know. It's hard to commit to this, right? Because then you get in your mind, you start to fall in love with players and all of a sudden Wednesday, there's a forecast change. And now what do you do? But I think you're a fool if you don't take this book out. Right. And then what do you do? The thing that I always struggle with the most, and I've gotten burned on this in both directions. I've had situations where I've taken...
out a play that I thought was an excellent play and replaced him for somebody on the better side of the draw and got, I got, I got burned. Right. Like, so are you the type of person I know? Like I talked to James a lot too, who is an Oklahoma guy. He did the DraftKings Strategy Podcast with me and he'll go a hundred percent. Like he'll fully stack it and like
Me and you will probably do stuff like that too from time to time, but I think it's important for people to understand we're also completely comfortable losing all our money in a given week. If we're wrong and we miss, it's like the same thing we talked about with fading wrong. It's like we're going to take that chance and if we miss, that's fine. We can live with that. Do you see yourself potentially, if this holds, going a full stack or are there certain guys on the other side of the draw that
Prince of Shinnecock that we just, we can't get off them. You know, I think it depends on how aggressive you want to be. Right. I've been described as uber aggressive. I'll fade anyone, anytime. I think what I want the heritage, I avoided the 15 highest players, which was, you know, someone wrote a review of that. So when you do that though, right. The chalk hits, you're done. You're toast. You're
You're going to put in, you know, for me, you're going to put in $30,000 in a week and you're going to log in on Sunday and it's going to say winning 220. Right. And you're just just put the phone away. But there's some guys I don't I can see a strategy where I would just go full fade because there's enough guys on both sides of the draw that I like in a tournament like this with such a deep field.
But at the same time, you know, we know that it's not just going to be 70 guys from one side making the cut, right? There's going to be, there's going to be guys, there's going to be 15 or 20 guys, even out of the bad draw that,
that play well and that find themselves there. And the wind can shift a little bit. All of a sudden, some guy's playing in a window where he's got at least 9, 10, 11 holes where, sure, he gets windblown on eight of them, but now he's got the rest of the course to play without a ton of wind. So that kind of stuff can happen, which makes me feel better about if I really like a guy, he's probably going to be in my pool, but maybe I'm reducing my exposure to him a little bit.
just in case, right? Right. Yeah. Even at the players when there was, I think it might've ended up like maybe two shots. I'm not sure, but even, you know, there were a lot of guys from the other side that still made the cut too. You know, what's the last question I want to ask you before we kind of start talking about some of the guys is, you know, I remember the masters for me is a good contrast because you had an incredible masters. I had a terrible masters and I remember walking away from the masters and
saying, man, I felt like I did a lot of pivoting for the sake of pivoting. And I start looking at all this stuff later. And it's like, you start looking at the lineups from the past couple of years. And it's like,
Oh man, like turns out chalk at the masters, like has this pretty, pretty solid, like history over a pretty large sample size. I forgot who put it out on Twitter too, but you look at the lineups from the last couple of PGA's too. And it is a little bit more chalky than I'm usually comfortable going. I mean, my lineups tend to be max 75% combined ownership. I tend to play pretty aggressive in that sense. And I'm kind of struggling this week with, uh,
Do I need to think about ownership a little bit less at majors? Do you have a take on that at all? Yeah. A lot of times, if you look at my, particularly my 150 builds, right, I'll play different contests and the higher stakes I'm playing four or five contests. That's a little different, but in my sort of $20 builds for the 150 lineups, um,
50 or 60 of those lineups will have like a combined 40% ownership. You know, I'm like, right. It's like 7% on 5% on high price guys. And then the other four guys are 1.7%. And I'm like, okay. I mean, if I'm winning this week at this lineup, that's right. It's not even about being unique. It's like I have leverage everywhere. However, and I've had some of those lineups come through and do really well.
But I think when I go back and analyze my play, at least some of my best weeks had been where I've had a little more chalk, not a ton. I'm never going to be taking the three chalkiest guys ever. But like at the RSM at Cam Smith, it was 31%, right? I had Rory and Morikawa at the Masters who were not chalk by any means. And you had Scheffler too, right? I had no Scheffler at the Masters, which was pretty amazing, actually. Well, Morikawa was under-owned at the Masters.
was but rory was kind of right there in that mid-range he wasn't over owned he wasn't under on but ordinarily like if you're just fading everybody up top you probably wouldn't have been on rory
And I had a lot of guys in that 8% to 10% to 12% range where I didn't worry about trying to get the 5% guy over the 8% Fleetwood or whatever. So Fleetwood ends up on the team. He scores a lot of points. And I've seen that in other tournaments too. I had Cantlay in one of the lineups at Heritage. He wasn't the super chalk, but he also wasn't low on. So I think trying to get too cute with that, I love leverage. I love it more than probably anybody who plays it would say.
I mean, I do think... Why we became friends, Kobe. Yeah. You know, I'm here to just kind of be comfortable on GPPs. If you want to win the big scores, you have to be comfortable losing. And that's part of that. But I think at some points we're getting too cute with the distinctions between...
you know, 3.8% Sergio and, you know, 6.6% someone you actually like. What are you really doing for yourself? I mean, obviously you're gaining a little bit of leverage, but at what cost? We're not talking about fading the 37%, you know, Luke list that comes in on some of these weeks. So I think you have to be smart about it and not fall totally in love with just fading ownership because that, you know, that's just as dumb as playing, you know,
you know, all the chalkiest guys, the play the best plays lineup, as you might want to call it. Those two things are equally nonsensical to me at least. Well, and I think the thing that's kind of different about this week from the Masters too, is I think maybe the reason why I've heard this theory before, and I think it makes a lot of sense to me logically as well, that the reason why chalk tends to perform a little bit better at the Masters because everyone actually does know this course really well. So for example, we had a guy,
like Corey Connors, who everyone understood was underpriced at the Masters, right? And Corey Connors is like 25% in most contests. And I'm sitting there saying, I'm never going to play 25% Corey Connors. It's just against my DNA. I'm going to play 2% Abraham Anser right next to him, right? And of course, Connors ends up smashing and doing well for a lot of people. And I'm sitting there kind of like,
God, what the fuck? Like, yeah, he looked good in my model too. The interesting thing about this week is that most of the takes I've heard on this course, like I'm kind of on the other side of a lot of them too. And I don't, I don't see anyone really emerging as crazy. Uh, you know, I think we get a, I think it's in play here, Kobe. And my guess would be Spieth.
But I think it's as the highest owned guy on the slate because I think Spieth checks the box of the numbers like him and the casuals like him too. And I think even with a guy like Cameron Young, I still think there are a lot of people that don't know who Cameron Young is. But with Spieth, you get the casuals and you also get the numbers guys. But even so, like...
23, 24%. There's so many good players in his range. Do you kind of see that too? I know you kind of make your own projections too, but it seems kind of flat to me this week. Yeah, I think it'll depend on what contest you're in. And some of the higher stakes, once you get up into the 888s and above that, but even the $200 single entry, I think you're going to see, typically in those contests, chalk becomes more chalk, right? 25% raw becomes 40%.
36% error wise becomes 58% error wise. It's crazy because people don't think about leverage as much, even though I think maybe they should. And at the level that most people would be playing the $25, you know, in the Millie maker,
I think there's so many good cases to be made for everybody at the top. I do think Spieth is going to be chalk. I think he'll be, I think you're a hundred percent right. It's kind of all coalescing, right? We've got recent form. We've got sort of longer term form going back a month. If you discount the masters, we've got narrative. Yeah.
We've got Texas. We've got, you know, just people wanting him to win the PGA. People who have bet on him, who want to also have some exposure to him in DraftKings. Right side of the draw for people who care about that. 100%.
100% right. They're going to be watching it. They know they're going to be watching it. He's a tiger. He's going to TV all the time. So there's a lot of that that goes into it. And I think in his price too, I mean, he's not bad. I mean, that's the bigger thing here. If he was priced up at 10, four, like where Morikawa is, maybe not.
He's so easy to click. People will start their lineups there. He's a pretty easy second man in if you're going to play Justin Thomas. He's a second man in if you want to get crazy. Yeah. Right. And with so many people that I think are going to go down to your Hadley, 6,300, things like that, it gets real easy to work speed then. So all of that he has going for him, whereas normally when you get the super chalk guy, he is going to be priced up more, which is going to at least keep some people off of.
And then I'll say also, I think Cameron Smith and DJ are,
being sandwiching him a little, and even going up with Hovland and Xander, he's got four people sandwiching in him that are on some level. I'm not saying the shine is off those guys. Obviously Xander played great the weekend, but DJ is looking like people are going to neglect him a bit. Yes. I haven't seen in a while. Hovland has the chipping problems. So the big sandwich around him, isn't, those aren't the most appetizing guys in that top of the board. So all of that combined stuff, I think we see 25, 30% speak maybe, um,
But I think everywhere else, I think it's going to be pretty even, at least from what I can tell. Right. Let's talk about the guys above 10. So you have Rory, Colin, JT, Rom, and Scheffler. Right now, the way that I have it, every single one of those guys is between 15 and 20. And I wouldn't be...
I wouldn't be shocked if that's how it ends up playing out. You know, more call would probably would be my guest to be the lowest of that bunch. But even so, you know, Mayo's all in on him this week. Um,
And he's had so much success at these majors. I think after a certain point, people are starting to understand it with him. Rom is the interesting one to me, man, because, you know, not the warm welcome for the Mexico Open champion I was expecting. I really, so funny how recency bias, and I texted you this too. It's like after Rory's second place finish at the Masters, uh,
I'm telling you right now, I fully believe that he would be the guy this week. I really did. I mean, that round was, you know, Kyle Porter was going nuts about it. And it was just like, it was crazy to use that. He holds that bunker shot.
It's yesterday's news. Rom wins the Mexico open. It's like Rom's back. Rom looks amazing. He's the best player in the world again. God, Rom could be like 14, 15%, right? And you have all these guys that are shooting 60s at the Byron Nelson, like Hideki and JT and Spieth and all these guys. And now I think we have this situation at the top. And then there's Scheffler too, who I still think people still doubt. So now I think you have this situation at the top where
I think you can kind of play who you want, right? Like I don't, I don't really see a guy emerging there. Yeah, I think that's right. I do think Thomas JT will end up garnering the most ownership. And I think that's more, I mean, obviously the form coming off the buyer Nelson, but I think the price again is with JT, you can get your speed and you want your speed, right? So I think the price and that big discount off the shuffler is going to put people on Thomas, but yeah,
There are cases to be made for all the guys, but I don't sense a ton of excitement around the top of the board. I think a lot of that is because people are a little unsure how this is going to play with all the information and misinformation that's out there. I think more people are interested in taking a more balanced approach, and it's pretty easy. The pricing is fairly soft, but I do think you can play who you want. It's going to be one of those weeks where...
you're not going to gain a whole lot of an edge by taking a... You think, oh, ROM is... Man, I'm getting a discount on him. He's at 15% compared to 17% JT. Well, you didn't really like ROM. You just wanted to save 2%, right? So I think this is interesting this week. I don't see a lot of opportunity to gain leverage up top. I think it's more in the mid-ranges that you can do that. Yeah, and even in the low nines, like...
Like I'm telling you right now, Kobe Zanders one shot away from being like 6% this week. And I still don't think that he's going to be crazy just because I think there are too many good players around him. And I think the Hideki Colt is pretty strong this week, but how do you see that bottom tier of the nines shaking out? Because, um,
Hideki is a thing this week, but the interesting thing with Hideki, and you've done such a great job of talking to me about this before, is there are certain players that always come in lower than you think. Always. Whether it's Patrick Reed, Hideki kind of falls into that category where it always feels like Hideki is under-owned.
And then Cantlay is an interesting one too, because there people are betting Cantlay. People are talking about Cantlay. He's not sneaking up on anyone, you know, at the same time, he hasn't played golf in a month. So he's not, you're not freshly looking at him shooting a 60 way and firing at every pen and getting 10 strokes on approach like a decade or making 25 birdies and 50 holes like Xander. How do you see that kind of lower tier shaking out? And do you believe that,
that Hideki will actually be Jock? Because part of me is like, I still feel like he's a good candidate to come in a little bit lower. Does have the good side of the draw, though. This is a hard range to figure out. I think one of the questions that you have to answer before you can understand this range is what will people do with Brooks, right? I mean, people are looking at a 5% Brooks. There's so many questions, right? But now I've noticed on Twitter and elsewhere, people
We're getting sort of, we've bounced back the other way. We had some anti-Brooks content and now I see people, well, God, look at his press conference where he's talking about it all. I'm steady as to no one's betting it, right? Oh my God, that's the Brooks I want. I saw one tweet that was like, Brooks has said he's, I think it was Chris Powers, he's
Nice guy like Chris. He's like, I see he's going back watching videos of himself putting to try to figure it out. That's what I want to see. I'm like, that's not what I want to see. I don't want to see a guy who feels so bad about his putting coming into a major week that he feels the need to go back and watch. It's like Xander with the computers on the putting crease. This isn't football. Studying tape and golf of your putting stroke doesn't seem like the best sign, but I do think we're going to see some of that like,
oh, well, shit, Brooke's at five. Oh, well, let's all take him. And then he comes in at nine or 10, starts eating a little bit of Cantlay, starts eating a little bit of Hideki. And Hideki, I think he, I've told you this before, like you mentioned, I think Hideki has a nice floor. There's people who will back Hideki almost anywhere and always. I'm usually one of them. I love taking Hideki. I think he also has a ceiling. There's people who don't trust Hideki.
He's burned people with withdrawals. He's burned people just with those flaky weeks. So there's people who don't want Hideki and they don't want chalky Hideki. So when he hits a certain number, people go, Oh, well I could just hop off and take Brooks and Oh, I'll get cute with it. And then it brings him down to a place where he's not so chalky anymore. Um,
But I do think it's going to be balanced here. I think Brooks is going to be low on those still after all I've said. I think DJ is sort of in the mid-range, probably figures to be less on than he should be. And then those other three guys, Xander, Hideki, and Cantlay, just probably spread out the ownership and they end up all in that 15, 12, 13, 14, 15% range. That's at least how I see it. I think you have to play Cameron Smith. Yeah.
I think so too. I told you that this is one of the ones I've been, you know, we're letting people in on our little, our little process that we have the week. We're putting it in digital form now. 35 minutes into the show and we haven't given one peck. People are going to be angry. I said, I said, Cam Smith a while ago here. I mean, I,
I do think people have gotten a little bit crazy with the, well, this is just going to be a shipping contest thing, right? Because you know, this is still a major and it still comes down to who can, who can hit the ball in the middle of the fairway a long way and who can pepper greens and have opportunities. Um,
And the reason to play Cam Smith is not because he's going to win a chipping contest, but because he's got the spike weeks with the irons. That's when he wins. It's not when he's chipping and getting up and down for pars. It's when he's making the 10-footers, and then he saves the par to win the tournament. So I don't know. It's going to be hard for me to get away from Cam. And somehow he's coming in a little less home than he should, probably because of speed.
A hundred percent because of speed. And I think the thing that people underrate with cam a little bit is, you know, his iron play over the last six months, you know, the reason he's won the tournaments is because of spike putting weeks. The reason he's been in the position to win tournaments is because he's turned from like an okay iron player to honestly, one of the best players in the world from 150 yards and then, which is a staff that I seem to be on an Island this week, but I really like, um,
And, you know, I think this is the first range where you're starting to see
okay, what do things look like if I start Cam DJ? What do things look like if I start DJ Brooks? I will always give a look to somebody at super low ownership. I mean, I'll take a look at Bryson this week. I'll take a look at Louie. I will mention this. I got a DM from one of the guys that was on the range today. I don't know if you saw this. I posted this on Twitter under one of the comments, but I asked him, I said,
Anything sticking out to you? And he was like, Brooks is hitting some bad golf shots. I'm just like, you know what? If you're playing 150 lineups, should Brooks be in five or 10 of them? Yes. But if you're not, if you're a single entry guy, I think the way that you want to get weird is eights and sevens.
Yeah, I think so too. I heard you mention that with Twitterless Steve and Boston Capper, and it gave me some pause. You know, I love qualitative data. You know, the numbers are great, but when I get some good qualitative data, I watched Brooks a little bit yesterday just hitting shots on live from, and it didn't look quite right. My wife said he's gotten a little bit fat, so maybe there's something to that. I don't know. I don't know.
She usually thinks he's that handsome. It's silly, Kobe. I've heard that take for why you shouldn't play Lowry this week. There's no guy I hate more when I don't have him, Shane Lowry. I scream so many times. I'm canceled whenever it comes to Shane Lowry. I am fat-shaving him all up and down the back nine heritage. Well, that was brutal at heritage, too. I know he broke a lot of hearts at heritage. I'm seeing him pretty high, though, no?
Yeah, I think, and I told someone this in a little group text that we had, I feel like Shane Lowry plays pretty well everywhere Cam Smith plays well. The games are similar-ish. I don't know that Lowry's got the high-end iron play that you're going to see from Smith, but I think he can get up and down from pretty much anywhere. He's got the sort of get it around type thing. He's a little loose off the tee, kind of like Smith. They're
i don't they're fairly similar so but i see him pretty highly owned i think that the nice price discount there and for some reason people don't love
you know, and then some J withdraws. The thing with Lowry is you go down, right? Nobody likes bottom mates. The bottom mates is empty. Well, it's a wasteland right now. You've got some J withdraw Bryson. Nobody wants him. Everybody feel like it's become cute to hate on tiger this week. Um, you know, for, for better or worse Hatton, there's so many issues there. Well,
Louis, like where do you, you don't find a name at the bottom of the, maybe Fitzpatrick is kind of finally hit and Finau. Connors. I think you probably start with. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, that's why I think you're going to get Lowry. Cause when you're building lineups, I mean, people are comfortable leaving some money on the table, but you're going to need somebody in the eight thousands, right? That there's just not a lot there. Of, of that little mini low eights range of Bryson, Tiger,
I don't want to throw Hatton in there because I don't think Hatton has as much of a risk. I actually really like Hatton this week. But of like the Bryce and Tiger-Louis group who all come in with some serious concerns, if you're playing 150, who's the most likely to be in 10 of yours? Louis.
Yeah, I think so too. I think that's the answer. I played a ton of Tiger at the Masters. Did you really? Yeah, I had him not in my... He wasn't in any of my 4-4-4s, and I didn't play...
At the $20 level of the masters I had, I had the 888s and the 444s. So I was in mostly high stakes, which I had in a lot of the 888 lineups, which turned out was probably a mistake. I had some really good lineups that Tiger just kind of was a weight on, but I felt like I was going to get low ownership on it. And I did. And it was, it was just nostalgic. I shouldn't have done it. I was very emotional about Tiger. I love him, but yeah,
at the end of the day, I think he's better here and I don't hate him, particularly on a tougher golf course where maybe positional points are going to matter more. He's got the good draw too. He was a lock for that too because you got to get him in the Friday afternoon TV schedule. Exactly right. Yeah, I like Hatton though. I think he's got to be the answer there. I think people are going to
take the Augusta comparisons to a weird place with him, right? I mean, he hates Augusta. He's got the bad vibes there just because this course is similar to Augusta. It doesn't mean he's got the bad vibes here, right? And I, he also finished six at Shinnecock, which is the only other course where you get a lot of weird bounces and variable wins and short grass everywhere. And he figured that one out fine.
That's right. And I think he's good. You know, anytime you get him in tough conditions, I think you're going to like him more and people just, for some reason they don't like playing at, and I don't know. And I've had a lot of success with him. So I, I think he's a good play here at that price, but Louie, you know, $8,000 is so cheap. The upside is there. He's a birdie maker. You know, he's going to reel off streaks. I don't think anybody's make a lot of Eagles this week, but he, I think he's going to score. He'll outscore his position. Um,
but you're taking a risk always with Louis, right? A lot of people can't stomach that. They want the late withdrawal slash just head to the jet after one round thing that happens with Louis. So I can see why you wouldn't play him if you were just doing single entry or you had five entries or whatever. Preston Pysh : You know what's interesting too is you have this pocket of Connors, Finau and Fitzpatrick
And it's dead above them and it's dead below them too. No, one's going to play web. No, one's going to play answer. No, one's going to play Leishman. No, one's going to play Scott listeners of my content. We'll play Fleetwood. And then you get to, and then you get to Cameron young. So first question for you, Corey Connors, Finau Fitzpatrick. I think I like Finau the most. I'm also a sucker for the Shinnecock thing. He's been awesome at colonial as well. Um,
Augusta as well. I think he's been okay at Memorial Park too. But I think all those guys, I think Connors, Finau, Fitzpatrick, probably all between 10 and 15. I think so, yeah. I don't think there's too much of an ownership difference there. I do think people love Fitzpatrick. Yeah, which I understand, by the way. Yeah, I do too. I get it. I don't play him a ton. I'm not playing him this week. He probably won't be in any of my lineups. Finau,
It's been a while since he's been super relevant. I mean, I know he made a run at the Mexico. People – there's been a little bit of the shine off of him. So I feel like Finau could come in a little under-owned out of this degree, but there's not going to be a ton of difference.
Connors too. I mean, do you think Fitz, I think probably Fitzpatrick is the highest of that three. Uh, Connors tends to deliver for a lot of people. Most of the time, like even at the Wells Fargo where he was so crazy over owned and both of us were hoping for that miscut. We finally got it the next week with Zala Taurus and Burns. Uh, but you know, he,
kind of ended up not killing you if you played Corey Connors at 30% and he finished T20. You know what's interesting to me about Connors, the reason why I haven't ruled him out yet, even though I think he's on the wrong side of the draw, he gained 4.5 around the green at the Masters. And one thing that I always like doing is
Some of these narratives start to like pop up. Like Corey Connors is terrible around the greens. Rory is a terrible wedge player. And a lot of them aren't actually based in fact, they're based on one shot that a player hits on TV. Like I remember with Rory, he airmailed a couple of greens at the Valero Texas open. It's like now Rory's the worst wedge player in the world. It's like, well, I'm going to actually like look and go through and try and figure out context and stuff like that and really see if that's true. Same thing with Corey Connors. It's like,
Corey Connors has this terrible short game because you've seen him leave a chip in a bunker in contention. Well, it's like, are we totally sure about that? So Connors is interesting to me here.
Yeah, I think so too. There's been enough times where I've been fading Connors and he's missed a green and I've gone, Oh, here it is. Here's where he makes that bogey. And then he hits it in four feet. And I'm like, wait, you know, I was told Corey Connors can't ship. And I see it over and over. And I'm like you, I want to know. And these things take on a life of their own, you know, with all these players. And I think it's because in golf,
We have so many players that you need an easy way to sort them. Your brain can't process 150 full player profiles, right? So you need Bryson, long, really good at narrow and long rough. That's all your brain can process before you can move on to the next guy. So it's tough. And those things take on a life of their own because you really get stuck in there. And then, oh,
Oh my God, maybe it's not true. And that's where I think you can pick up an edge. I like Connors. I mean, I don't mind him in this spot, particularly if he's going to be playing from the fairway where a lot of guys are not and he hits it. He's not the longest guy in the world, but I think he's long enough to play well here. So you're really rooting for the spike week with him though. You know, if he's playing well, he's not going to have to chip all that much. No, we know how we both feel about Fleetwood. I really like Adam Scott too. I think this range, like,
Cam Young, between 13 and 18, right? What do you think with him? 20? Really? Yeah, I think it's going to get there. The higher the stakes you go, the more he's going to be played. But I think you can see it. Not only in some of the projection sites, I see him trending up. I've told you before, one of the things I look at, more than just the pure numbers, where's the trend line? From Monday to Tuesday, I've seen everything increase dramatically.
And again, it's more of just like, what else is there to play? I don't think that people love the guys that we love. Leishman's been- Do people like Keegan this week? I feel like people like Keegan. People do. People do like Keegan. He's the other guy. But like, who's really playing Jason Day? There's some momentum for Horschel, but not really. Casey's a withdrawal. Gooch burned everybody last week, although I do think he'll be somewhat popular. Bubba's getting no ownership. I mean, so we're- He falls in that range where if you're not going to be smart and play Fleetwood-
you're going to land on Cam Young. And you're going to need him for those Spieth-Hedecky builds or whatever. 76 is what you're going to need. When we have a situation like Cam Young, and another pretty decent example of this a little bit farther down the board is Mito. But when you have a situation where
These guys are clearly talented, right? Like, I don't think anyone's trying to argue that. Like, yes, I understand that they've never had any experience in a major championship. And I think if you really do the legwork in terms of listening to what players say about these major championships and not been to a bunch of majors, it's just, it's a really different vibe.
Like when you're on the grounds that week, especially if you've never, you hear guys all the time talk about the first time they go to Augusta, they want to play the whole course on Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday. And the guys that have been playing the masters for years, you're like, what are you guys doing? Like, that's not how you go about your master's week. Right. One thing I struggle a lot with is do you look at a guy like Cam Young or Mito Pereira who is,
is gaining like eight strokes, ball striking pretty consistently, you know, just finishing, you know, second at courses like Riviera and say, you know what? It's not like those stats are nothing, right? Like they're starting to get into a range where there's fewer and fewer people in this range that have actually shown they are capable of doing that in a professional golf tournament over the last year versus like, you know what?
Justin Rose has played in like 50 fucking majors, you know, but like, but I've seen Bubba do it, you know, or Matthew Wolf even just finished runner up in a U S open. Right. Like, how do you kind of weigh that? Well, the way I think about it, um,
When we know that Cam Young will compete in majors, he will. And Mito as well. The question is when, right? And when you're playing with fire a little bit, because, you know, if you continue to fade him into majors, eventually it's going to be the first time he plays well and you're going to be on the wrong side.
To me, I think it's a little early. And I look at it, I'm a big college football guy, and you see the teams that come into the college football playoff, and they've played well in the Cincinnati's of the world. I'm not saying he's Cincinnati necessarily, but they're not, they've never been there. And then they get just woodshedded by Clemson or Ohio State. And their eyes, it's like, oh shit, of course they got woodshedded here. And even when
The Iowa State team comes in there not looking great, and they're 11-1, and they just lost to somebody, but then they still wipe the floor of them. I think on some level that major – I don't know how to quantify it, but it's certainly a thing. These guys – it happens a lot of times with the sort of dudes who play well in the PGA Tour and can play well at the Balspar, and then they just can't translate it, and I don't know what it is. Some of it's the course. Southern Hills is not – but he's played well at Riviera, right? Riviera is a –
a major type of test. But there's something about it, something about the week, something about the pressure. These guys are still human and there's just a difference stepping up to the tee at a major, you know, with all everything that goes into that. And I think it's going to take them some time, but at some point they're going to do it. So,
Do you want to be early or do you want to be late? That's the question you have to ask yourself with these guys. And then you get down here, Kobe, and it's like there's this giant range between... I actually really like Russell Henley this week, and I would probably imagine that he's maybe closer to 8%. But
Pretty much down to Norrin. It feels like Norrin is the first guy, the first potential we have to crack double digits down here.
I think that's right. There's a lot of guys in there that I don't, the guys who would ordinarily be popular have kind of struggled. I think that's what's interesting about this player. Like Si Wu, I've been on him. Yeah. I play a lot of Si Wu. Bad last week. Pretty bad, frankly, at the Wells Fargo. Been fairly disappointing for a while. Luke Liss, same thing. I don't think there's a lot of excitement over him. Even Hoagie's cool. So Hoagie and Straka have started to cool big time too.
That's right. McNeely, you know, he's got sort of the Cam Young problem, which is, but without the high end finishes and the big events, can he do it here? Peter's fucking took a nuke to everyone at the masters. I like that. Yeah. Yeah. I like Peters. I'm going to be on it, but nobody wants Thomas Peters at this moment. Same thing with that Roy. And so you're right. You get all the way down to Norrin. Maybe Brian Harmon picks up a little more ownership, but not to get to 10%. Um,
So that's a dead, there's so many dead ranges in this player pool. That's what's got me fascinated with it. I like Reed and Sergio. Yeah, I do too. Well, they're in all my player pools always. So, and it's generally because no one else is playing Reed. I'll take my chances. Sergio, it's such a weird year though, right? He's all of a sudden putting the lights out. I don't know what you're going to get out of Sergio, but that's part of, that's why he's 7,200. If he was good Sergio, he'd be 8,200.
Right. And I think the thing with Sergio is he has this public snafu at the Wells Fargo. Um, you know, it's interesting. I played him at the Wells Fargo. He's, I mean, he easily could have checked out of that tournament. He was really good the rest of the week and he finished, he finished top 20, I believe. Um,
The Liv thing is interesting to me as well. It's such an unquantifiable narrative. But I'm just trying to get inside these guys' heads. And I know we talked about Kokrak a little bit too, who I think Kokrak is...
a very good candidate to be the, like you said, I'm sneaky playing Jason Kokrak. Oh wait, Jason Kokrak's 13%. But like with some of these guys like Kokrak, Sergio, Rose, do you think people are actually starting to think like, all right, these guys are going to play the Centurion Club in a week for $4 million. Like, are they really going to try and beat fucking Hovland this week? And these guys that are 20 years younger and vomit, you know, 30 yards past them now.
Yeah, I think people are taking that into account, even if it's just a little bit in their subconscious. Although, I don't know, every time I hear that about someone, like, Kokrat goes and finishes 13th at the Masters, and Sergio played pretty well here recently at the Wells. Yeah.
If you're paying attention, you kind of see that Lee Westwood is not playing bad because of Liv. He's playing bad because he can't turn his body. But I do think people look for narratives. Same thing I talked about earlier. It makes it simple. They look for a heuristic where they can sort out all the names because otherwise this is overwhelming. And that's an easy one. It's a really easy thing to talk yourself into.
Would you of this group, uh, we'll say Wolf Rose. We already talked about Reed and Sergio, how we both liked them. Wolf Rose Fowler rank those guys. Can they all be a zero? Um, uh, Rose Wolf Fowler. Yeah. Rose Rose. Um,
Rose is another one of those guys that is like, I found this weird thing where all of the same guys play well at Shinnecock colonial and, and aeronomic and Rose, Rose and web were the two guys that always play well at those two courses, but are in terrible form that I keep going back and forth on.
Yeah, you know with Rose, he's got that plus seven strokes game putting T19 in him. The one where he makes every 14-footer per par that he looks at. He did it at the US Open at Pebble where he was pretty much playing horrible, but he made everything he looked at. I think he fell down the leaderboard. He's got that in him where as a Ricky Fowler or maybe a Matt Wolfe doesn't. It's one of those things where it's like, God, if that's your upside, why am I on you? Yeah.
There might be a 1.5% bump on Wolfe and Fowler because people still think that Southern Hills is Oklahoma State's practice course. I heard Taylor Gush talk about it. Well, I heard Hovland, too, talk about how they play. Hovland plays a lot of his golf at Carson Creek, and he was talking about some of the differences with just the soft greens there. I played Carson, too. Yeah, it's a fuzz. Yeah.
Yeah. It's just a different, different challenge. Beautiful. Never played it, but you know, I know a lot about it. Oak tree is obviously penal or at least it was before the redo. As shit, man. That's a Pete die golf course, 7,400 yards. That is a, that's a bear thicker rough. Yeah. Good, good golf course. At one point they had talked about that being the hardest course in America when they had it really charged up, but just different, a different world. And I think again, people like to cling to those narratives. I heard,
Taylor Goose, I think he said today he's played this course 12 times in his life, but then he was, it was really six or seven. He didn't even come here whenever the PGA Championship was here. He was like, oh yeah, I watched it on TV. You know, so did every other
player in this field who was a kid. But people are going to, they'll get a boost for that reason. It will. It happens all the time. You go to South Carolina at the Heritage and all of a sudden, Doc Redman and Bill Haas are- Right, because they went to Clemson. Right. Even though they grew up four hours away in Greenville. Meanwhile, you won't play the guys who come from Seattle and Georgia, which is an hour down the road. So people get really weird about it. And that'll certainly happen this week. The one guy
How low do you think people are going to go this week? Because it seems like people are doing the Mito thing at 6,700. They're going to Mito. I think people are going to go to Hadwin. Really? Yeah, they like him. 20% miss a cup by like six strokes is the one concern. Yeah, me too. I mean, I was never going to play Hadwin, so it's a completely irrelevant discussion for me. Yeah.
Yeah. I think people have a hard time, particularly the PGA. They have a hard time getting off the sort of PGA tour player has been playing good at the scrub events. Like let's take a shot later in the year. Whenever Hadwin doesn't show up at Memorial and hasn't played well in the majors, they're not playing him at, you know, St. Andrews, but it's early enough in the year that I think you'll see it. Lanto, I think we'll get some, I think that's as low as people will go. Um,
Which is pretty low, 6,300. Mitchell, maybe. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's, there's some of that. I think you're going to see, just looking at the 6,500s, I think it, there'll be some stuff spread out. I think I've heard some buzz on Matt Jones. I think Mito is going to be popular. He's a fairly easy click in kind of a wasteland of,
you know, just guys that you don't want in your lineup. Aaron Wise, I think will be popular. Although I kind of like him this week. I'd never play him, but I think he's, he's got, I've been, he's been on every lineup of everyone I've been trying to beat. So I've watched him a lot and it's just been constantly hitting things to six and seven feet. Um, I think he's got the game to play here, but I think there's not a lot down here. I think McIntyre will be fairly popular. Um, you know, I, I,
This is why I think when I look down at the 6,000s, I don't think it's quite as enticing as it sometimes is. Yeah. Which is why I think there's going to be a lot of lineups that are starting with speed so that they can just hit speed, can't lay Zalat Taurus and just live right there in that $7,000 zone. Yeah.
When I first saw the pricing, I thought Bobby Mack would be mega, mega chalk. And I like Bobby Mack, but you look at the guys around him, there's not a lot of stats on him, I guess is the thing maybe that'll keep people off. I don't think he's going to be a model guy, but the dude's played in eight majors and never missed a cut with two top 10s at the Open and two top 25s at the Masters. I think he is one of the mistakes that I made at
the masters is there were a couple guys in the mid to low sevens that were like,
10 ish percent that were the, it was kind of the number where you started to say, okay, this maybe starts to smell a little bit like bad news. And I would pivot off them. Like, I think I would play Bobby Mac at like 10% here. Yeah, I think so too. I think the upsides of there, I think as a lefty, I think, you know, it's obviously draw bias for the righties, but I think he can kind of cut it around this place and, uh,
have some success. Obviously, I like him at Augusta. He's been so good there. We believe in that comp. He's got sort of the tough course pedigree. We talk about Cam Young, right? It's a mindset. I think we're going to see eventually that Cam Young could be that junkyard dog type guy that goes out in tough conditions and plays, but McIntyre has shown it already. Not that he can necessarily win here, but he can compete.
And I think it's a, he's young. I mean, we think, I think in my mind is a little bit older because it's been around so long, but I think that experience matters. And I don't know why my brain, maybe that's a bias I need to work through, but no, it's worked eight times that I ate. If you play them in these things. Do you have any other guys down here that you want to mention? I think we're fine down here. I don't think, you know, I don't know. There's nothing down. I'm just looking through who I have starred on fantasy national. I'm just trying to, I have nothing starred on,
below 6600 and i have fern weisberger starred for reasons i don't know just because i he always ends up in my lineups and i have cam davis starred even though i don't think i'm going to end up there i've heard a little horse field buzz yeah i haven't well it's coming off a win of course and right good he was pretty good at the zurich as well i had a little piece of him there i've got three guys in the six thousand start it's just not
I don't know. I don't know where you go here, which I think a lot of people are going to agree. And I don't, like I said, I don't see a lot of ownership coalescing other than Aaron Wise. And then I think Hadwin will be pretty popular because 6,300 and Mito, 6,300 gives you so much salary relief.
um, going up that I think a lot of people will end up getting there so that they can jam in all the guys they love in the nine thousands. But you know, that's not for me. I think I feel comfortable talking about him because I think even if I campaign, people are still going to have zero interest. I love Kevin Nall here. Yeah. Let me see. I want to pull his fantasy national or his Rick run. Good. He's a, he's so good at, um,
He's like so weirdly good at the masters and he's so good inside 150 yards. And he's like, has one of the best short games in the world. What more do you want? He's won at colonial. Like he's, he just finished T 14 at the masters. If you're like, can Kevin not finish top 20 on this course? Yeah. And do I trust him to finish top 20 on this course? Honestly, more than I trust Kevin,
I think he's better Kevin Kisner. Like I think he is Kevin Kisner without the bar. So he's just better. Yeah. That's an open question. Why Kevin Kisner is how much is he this week? 68. He's 68. He's right there. Yeah. And I, Riley might be a guy too. People love Davis Riley.
They do. They do. There's some of these guys that are going to project at 3% down low who just end up in a ton of lineups. Yeah. Cause they're comfortable clicks. People see Riley as having sort of the high end skillset. I don't know if that's necessarily true. It's really going to play itself out longterm, but certainly recently he's been on TV a lot, which matters when it comes to these things. But I like having a nod with you on that. I, I could end up there. I,
I don't, again, with these majors, you're kind of trying to quantify something that is just like out there. Like, is this guy, is this guy capable of not wilting? Because you see so many times that you play a guy and all of a sudden you look at your leaderboard on Thursday morning and he's plus five through seven. And you're like, how did this happen? He's not bad enough to be doing that, but he gets on the bogey train and it's just gone. You know, I need guys who I trust to sort of manage their game well.
in the right way. I think a lot of it's mental, but Kevin Na is one of those guys for sure. Swartzel, you have a thought? He's been playing so good. Yeah. Masters. Yeah. I mean, I don't, I think the numbers of Nelson were good. I think what I'm going to do this week is, I mean, just talking about like pool construction, usually I have like, you know, three or four guys above nine, um,
six-ish guys between 7.5 and nine and like 10 guys below 7.5 that I kind of mix and match with I think you could do that this week and I may even go a little bit more I mean what do you think the what do you think do you think there's gonna be a high six of six percentage this week
It's top 70 in ties here, right? Yeah, it's top 70 in ties and you've got a big field, a strong field. You've got, you can probably kind of knock out 20 of them with the PGA professionals. Yeah, so we're at 135. I don't think it's going to be a high 6%. Yeah, me neither. I think somewhere in the,
10% range, you know, eight, 10%. And I mean, if some of this chalk gets bounced, you never know what these things are. And we're going to see guys shooting 80 over the weekend too. That's exactly right. It's going to be a weird, it'll be a pretty weird week. I remember the old us opens like at, uh, at chambers Bay, you know, you had six of six is going backwards and four or six is going forwards. And it just made your play out a little bit like that. But I do think, I think you're going to see it somewhere in that eight to 10% range, uh,
unless, you know, let's say speed misses the cut or whatever, which can happen. That stuff obviously is in the range of outcomes and some chalk is going to absolutely bomb. We know that. Who's it going to be? You know, if you have that crystal ball, you win all the money. But I think having a six of six though,
You're going to have to have it obviously to win these things. And if we get the calm day that we're probably looking at on Sunday, it looks like we might get calm ish conditions. I guess if wind finder is right, I think you're going to see a little more scoring on Sunday, but Saturday could just be carnage all day, all day carnage. Yeah. Sunday looks like the Sunday looks like the most calm day for sure. And it's Saturday. You're right. I mean, all right. Yeah.
Kobe DuBose, one last question. Actually, two-parter. Give me one guy above 9K that's going to miss the cut, and it can't be Brooks. And who wins? Oh, boy. One guy above 9K that misses the cut. The easy answer is Hovland, but I think he's going to hit enough greens. Hideki. And who's going to win this golf tournament? Rory McIlroy is going to win the golf tournament. Oh, I mean...
We didn't do the whole Rory piece too. I'm with you, man. I've completely talked myself into it. I know he's kind of your guy because he's won you a lot of money. It's just one of those things where some of the times at the majors I try and... It's such an information overload. This has got to be my...
seventh show of the week already. And I just get to a point, I'm just like, all right, you know what? Close your eyes. Who do you really see? I'm not one of those guys that I'm just going to necessarily bet who I want to win. I do bend the knee to the numbers and really try and win money at this long term. But sometimes I'm just like, all right, just block all this shit out. Who's...
Like, who do you envision? I keep going back to Rory. I just see him raising that trophy. I like the noise around Spieth. I like the noise around Tiger. I just...
I like the draw. I think his short game is so freaking underrated. I think people are wrong about the inside 150 stuff. I just kind of see it. And it's like, oh yeah, his last major round, he shot freaking 62, but we were all crazy. He did it at Augusta and all the other guys that you took did it at Bunny Ranch. I tell people to do this all the time if you're trying to pick a winner. Because I think back last year to the British Open. I had a
a big ticket on workout. I had 500 bucks on him at 38 to one, right? I won 20 grand. And part of why that happened is I was, I just visualized like, how is he, we got this course with these little small quirky greens and these dog legs and these sort of weird ridgy fairways. And I just imagined him hitting that three wood just right there in the right spot and just pepper in these tiny greens. And then, oh my God, I'm watching Saturday and it's like, oh, he's doing it. That's exactly how he's winning the tournament. Right.
And I thought to myself, why don't I do this more? Like picture the guy's pad. Like what do you see on number 13 on Saturday afternoon when he's one back? What shots he hit? Is he going to get it done? It's hard to do that with like a Mark Leishman because I have no idea where the ball is going to be. But with Rory, I can see the bat. It's blasting the ball a long way in the fairway, giving himself more nine irons and wedges than anybody else in the field.
And then, you know, catching a little bit of a hot putter. I don't think it has to be a super hot putter, but you know, a little bit of a hot putter and he's there. So, you know, I'm, I'm with you on that. The first hole is this beautiful downhill dogleg left long par four with an elevated tee where you're kind of right behind
right below the clubhouse. If you're playing there, it's a really intimidating shot because you have all of the members who are eating in the snack bars right there kind of watching you. It's almost kind of like the first tee at Riviera. I don't know if you remember how it is at Riviera where it's this elevated tee and the clubhouse is right there. That's such a good hole for a draw. If Rory hits that first tee shot and it's just that booming high draw around the corner, I can see it.
Off he goes. I can see it. Kobe, do you have anything to like plug, you know, plug your law practice? I mean, Twitter. Absolutely. If you get caught with methamphetamine in the state of Texas or heroin, or, you know, if you,
You happen to throw your kid into the pool and they charge you with injury to a child. Why don't you call me? I'm just kidding. No, I'm not really promoting things. I'm not a tout. I just like to talk golf. I appreciate the chance to be on with you. You've been an important part of my process, as I've told you, and I really appreciate what you're doing, trying to add some value.
I don't know, some intelligence to this space that doesn't, it's not always there. But you can follow me on Twitter at Dubose Defense. You're going to get like a lot of golf takes and then maybe some of my weird takes about criminal defense. And then if one of your family members gets pulled over on I-10, I'm your guy. Kobe, it was a blast, man. We're going to do this again. Maybe every major will do it again in time for me, but it was good to see you, buddy. Yeah, you too, man.
All right. That is it for the show. Special thanks to Kobe. Special thanks to RickRunggood.com. You can find me later this week on The Scramble. Please remember to leave a review on Apple Podcasts as well for a chance to win $200. Make sure to leave your name and Twitter handle so I know how to get in touch with you and send you your money. And one more reminder, no Sunday show next week on Colonial. No Tuesday show either.
So no colonial content for me on this podcast feed. I will still do my Rick article, both my Rick articles, actually. I won't be on the Scramble Tuesday, though. My brother's graduating college, so I've got a ton of family shit that week, Monday and Tuesday. I did record an extremely fun show with Twitterless Steve that I will probably drop soon.
Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday of next week in relief of any colonial content. We basically took the 15 best players in the world right now and argued about how many majors they would end their career with. It's really good. Where else are you going to find a full breakdown of PGA Frisco, the host of the 2027 PGA Championship, a course that hasn't even been completed yet? So one more time, thanks so much for supporting all my stuff this week.
And good luck with your picks at the PGA Championship. We'll see you next time. Cheers.
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