2022 Genesis Invitational Betting & DFS Preview
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Okay, welcome in Inside Golf Podcast, Genesis Invitational Betting and DFS Preview. My name is Andy Lack. I'm recording this early on Sunday morning, 9 a.m. Pacific time, before any of the top guys have teed off. And I'll put this out at some point during the final rounds. I know it's a very busy day because of the Super Bowl, and I'm a little exhausted myself because I spent...

11 hours in the car yesterday, but this is an unbelievable tournament that we have coming up this week. So I really want to make sure that I was able to dive in and do a good preview. And this one was very easy to do because I could talk about Riviera ad nauseum. The one bummer is that many of the good players in the field next week

are either in contention or have at least made the cut.

And as you guys know, I really don't like making a decision on any of those players until we have the full and completed strokes gain data. And we see how Sunday completely plays out. I thought about waiting, but we have the Super Bowl and I want to make sure that I get this out in a timely fashion because I know a lot of people do like listening before even the odds come out. So, yeah.

I'm not going to spend a ton of time on Xander or Cantlay or Rom or JT or Hideki. I mean, I have opinions about those players, regardless of what happens today. But tune into this Tuesday show to hear my fully formulated opinions on some of the players that are in the mix in Phoenix. Speaking of Phoenix, I did not get to watch a second of yesterday's action.

From the people tweeting at me and DMing me, I'm very glad that I did not get to watch. Sounds like Xander was a little all over the place, but I'm very pleased with how this tournament is shaping out so far. I want to give a quick shout out to my good friend Degenerate75 on Twitter, who's a professional DFS player.

Great guy. I've met him in person before as well. We hung out last year at the Northern Trust. He's been listening since the beginning. And he texted me on Wednesday night and said, listen, stack PM AM. I think we have an edge there.

because of the wins and he was correct there was about a stroke and a quarter difference between p.m. and a.m. and a.m. p.m. which may not sound like a ton but it's little edges like that over the course of a season that are going to make you a much better player and I

There's reasons. It's reasons like this, actually, why he was able to quit his job and play DFS professionally, right? Because he is looking at stuff like that. So we've got some sweats this afternoon. Unfortunately, I still played way too much Fowler for me to be really in the mix for a massive week.

I don't know what the hell I'm doing playing that much Fowler in 2022, but here we are again. And the lower end players that I was able to identify, Hadwin, Laird, Mitchell, Ryan Moore, even Eckroth, they've been really good. So as is tradition, I'm

I've got the bottom of the board figured out really well, but I pretty much locked John Rahm this week. And at the top, it was Rahm and Thomas for me. I played them almost exclusively, often in the same lineup, and faded basically everyone else above 9K. Yeah.

And I don't know if they're going to be good enough. They need to play really well today because the guys who played can't lay and to decky and Xander and Brooks, like those guys were better plays. So as of this moment, so we'll see. So Heath was a bummer. Yeah.

Obviously, if you're listening to this, you are aware of how much I have been talking about this guy, how much I've been banging the drum for this guy. And he missed the cut on the number at Pebble Beach. So did Eckrot, by the way. And I looked at the numbers and thought, okay, Eckrot's the guy we need to keep buying because Saheeth hit it really poorly at Pebble Beach, actually.

But I mean, how many times do we talk about this? And I'm just the worst at it often where I see something in the numbers very early with a guy like Taylor Gooch, a guy like Eckrod, a guy like Saheeth. And if he is really cheap, like all of those guys were at the time, unless you think this is a terrible course fit, you should play him every week.

And just buy on a macro level. But point being, Saheeth is very good. And even though I want this one for Xander badly, and I would stand to win a lot of money if Sheffler or Hadwin were able to do it.

I'm still super, super happy for Saheeth. In my season preview, I didn't have the balls to pick him over Mito for Rookie of the Year because Mito was playing so well at the time. But I think I should have stuck with my guns because I think Saheeth is a pretty special talent. I think he's going to be...

I don't know if I want to use the word star, but I definitely think he has top 10 player in the world potential. Um, I really do believe that. Uh, but that's probably all I have to say about Phoenix. I could talk a ton about Xander. Um, if Xander wins on the off chances, Xander actually wins. Nagels will come on anyway, and we'll do 15 minutes on him at the start of the Tuesday pot, but let's see what happened. Uh,

There's a lot of good players in the mix. I could also talk a ton about my trip to Pasatiempo with my great buddy Luke Sweated Out on Twitter. First podcast guest ever. We had an absolute blast, completely worth the 11 hours in the car. But I will save...

the Pasatiempo stuff and maybe a deeper dive on Xander for another time because there's a lot that I want to be able to get to with Riviera. So let's dive right in. Okay, Genesis Invitational, right in my backyard.

Um, formally the LA open, this tournament has been around since 1926 and it has been played at a number of Los Angeles courses over the year, including my home course back in 1927, El Caballero. It's been played at Rancho park, Fox Hills, LACC, Hillcrest, Wilshire, all courses that I love. Uh, but basically since 1973, uh,

We've been going to Riviera, which is one of the greatest golf courses in the country. Maybe one of the greatest golf courses in the world, at least architecturally in terms of its routing and design. And I have read a lot about it over the years. So I'm excited to share a few takes on it. It's also worth noting that.

along with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the RBC Heritage, and the Charles Schwab Challenge and Memorial, this tournament, which is organized by the Tiger Woods Foundation, is an invitational. So there is a reduced field of only 120 players as opposed to most full field tournaments with a field of 156 players.

And this field is awesome. Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Bryson, Rom, Xander, Brooks, Finau, Scheffler, Rory, Colin, Cantlay, who loves this golf course. Big architecture guy, Patrick Cantlay. Zalatoris, Burns, Hideki, Spieth, Cam Smith.

um sung jay it's pretty damn loaded um hovland too i don't even think i mentioned hovland um which it should be because this is probably the best golf course that we get all year outside of the major venues um and it's put on by tiger of course okay so former winners max homa last year in a playoff over tony finow i had tony finow

Um, he won at 12 under par 2020, Adam Scott, 11 under par over Scott Brown, Sung Kang and Matt Kuchar 2019, JB Holmes, 14 under par over Justin Thomas, 2018 Bubba 12 under par over Kevin Na and Tony Finau 2017, Dustin Johnson, 17 under par over Scott Brown and Thomas Peters, 2016,

Bubba Watson, 15 under par over Jason Kokrak, Adam Scott. 2015, when it was very windy, James Hahn, six under par. He was 200 to one that week.

over Paul Casey and Dustin Johnson. 2014, we have Bubba again. He won 14, 16, and an 18, 15 over par over Dustin Johnson, who we'll talk about a little bit later. He's probably, him and Bubba are probably the number one course history guys here. And then 2013, he,

John Merrick, 250-1 over Charlie Belgin. 2012, Bill Haas in really difficult condition, 700-par over Keegan Bradley and Phil Mickelson. So the one thing that stood out to me was only two guys...

below 30 to 1 have won here in the last 10 years. Now, part of that has to do with the fact that this is a really good field, but you can still get your surprises at Riviera. This is actually a course, in my opinion, where

A lot of different skill sets can compete and you can get a bomber like J.B. Holmes at 150 to one or James Hahn at 200 to one or John Merrick at 250 to one who doesn't hit the ball anywhere. So there are so many elite players in this field that it's just really hard sometimes to envision a

a middle tier or a lower tier player winning this event, but it actually happens more than you would think. Okay, Riviera, let's do it. So Riviera was designed in 1926 by George C. Thomas and William Bell.

Thomas is one of the greatest architects of all time. I would highly recommend his book, Golf Course Architecture in America, its strategy and construction. Probably one of the best books on architecture you'll ever read. It's up there with Doak's Confidential and The Spirit of St. Andrews for me personally. Also, Jeff Shackelford's book,

specifically on Riviera, the exact title is escaping me, but that one is quite good too. So Thomas, he's basically the LA guy, right? Like every great golf course in the greater Los Angeles area, there's a very good chance that George Thomas was involved. He also designed the

LA Country Club North, one of my all-time favorite golf courses, Bel Air Country Club, Ojai Country Club, Palos Verdes, and Sataquay, which I really enjoy as well. And most of these were with William Bell. Now, what's interesting, Thomas is actually a Philadelphia guy. And he was good friends with Hugh Wilson, who designed Marion, George Crump, who designed Pine Valley, and of course, Tillinghast.

So Thomas was actually part of what we would call the Philadelphia School of Golf Course Design, along with Crump, Tillinghast, Wilson, and William Flynn. And they were some of the first guys ever to really innovate with more doglegs and risk reward holes. You'll see that a lot at Riviera. And when he moved to Los Angeles in 1919, he ended up bringing that Philadelphia School system

style of architecture to the West Coast. I could do about 45 more minutes on this, but let's get into the actual course. So Riviera, it's a par 71, 7,322 yards, nicknamed Hogan's Alley.

Ben Hogan, one of the many to love this place. It is a classic golf course, as I mentioned, from the Philadelphia school in the golden age of golf course design. The best era, in my opinion. It's not close. It's tight off the tee. It's tree-lined. It plays in a canyon. Really provocative topography at Riviera. So you're not going to get a lot of even lies there.

Tom Fazio, who in my opinion should be kept miles and miles away from golf courses like Riviera, did a bit of a redesign in 2008. And thank God he did not change much. The biggest thing to keep in mind about Riviera, it annually ranks as one of the hardest to hit fairways on tour. Only 55% driving accuracy there.

compared to the tour average of 62%. That is well below average. It's also really hard to hit greens here. Only 57% compared to the tour average of 66%. Even more below tour average. So really hard to hit fairways, really hard to hit greens here.

The bunkers are deep. The rough is Kikuyu, which can get dicey. And we are back to Poa Greens. So putting inside 10 feet is always going to be below tour average with Poa.

Three putt avoidance here is higher than tour average, right? So we're going to be, we're going to want to be looking at players that have performed well on POA greens. And these greens are a lot faster actually, and even more difficult than the POA greens at Pebble Beach. Now, a lot of that has to do with the climate. Like I mentioned, Riviera is in the middle of a Canyon. It's smack dab in the middle of the Santa Monica mountains.

So sunlight is completely reflective and bounces off the surrounding Santa Monica mountains into this like canyon area, which is why you see a lighter green coloring on Riviera screens. And then the darker that you see at Pebble Beach, again, nightmare fuel, I know for some, but I think it's worth mentioning because Pebbles on the coast and it's in a bit of a colder climate.

Now, as I mentioned, the Kikuyu rough, this course and Torrey Pines are the only courses that feature this type of rough. And sometimes...

You are able to get really good lies in Kikuyu. And sometimes it's going to be completely buried. There isn't a ton of rhyme or reason to it in my experience playing Kikuyu. And the players will tell you the same thing. But, you know, players are going to have to deal with it a lot this week because these fairways are very difficult to hit.

On the surface, they measure 33 yards wide on average from the 250 mark, which isn't anything super small. But because they play so firm and fast, and because nearly none of the holes on this golf course are straight, a lot of them are curving around bunkers, it makes the fairways play a lot more narrow than they actually are.

And they get even more narrow the farther you hit it. So around the 300-yard mark and the 325- and 350-yard mark, they're only 26 yards wide, which is incredibly narrow.

And not all courses have that cascading effect. But that is why you see players often take less than driver here. It's not an overly long course. It's only 7,300 yards, but it plays longer than that because this course does take driver out of your hand sometimes. Now you can still hit driver, but

driving distances right around tour average. And I wouldn't necessarily call this a less than driver, you know, positional course. Um, but it's more of a shot makers course, right? There are a lot of different ways that you can attack. You can hit driver on every hole. If it suits your eye, you can also never hit driver at all and still find success. And, um,

That creative aspect of it where there are just a lot of ways to attack these holes. That's why Bubba has been so good here. That's why Hogan has been so good here and loves it so much. And that's the reason why architecture nerds like myself consider this one of the seminal works of the 20th century, because it.

it doesn't have there's zero homogeny to the strategy here right it doesn't necessarily favor a draw or fade consistently the way that a jack nicholas course where he will just lazily design courses where you can just hit a fade all day um riviera actually rewards players that can work the ball both ways off the tee and think creatively again this is why bubba has been so good here uh a

Augusta is very much in that same classical vein where it is a much it's a much different golf course in Riviera. Augusta has a lot more room off the tee, but both, I would say, embody a very similar ethos of creativity and shot making because.

There's so much undulation to this course and the ball actually moves on the ground. It's not just target golf. You actually have to play away from the pins, which is why I think Thomas, uh, George Thomas, that is not Justin, um, was one of the best there is. Um,

And they don't they just they don't really make golf courses like this anymore, if we're being completely honest. But let's move on to what matters. Right. So what am I what am I actually looking for this week at Riviera? Actually, I want to jump around the order here and do some quotes first, because I think these are important. So Adam Scott.

who's been awesome here, love Adam Scott, said, I really just like a lot of the holes out here. I'm very comfortable, and somehow I managed to putt generally well here when it's one of those courses that most people tend to struggle on the greens with.

Something about it reminds me a lot of golf in Australia too. The Australia comparison is apt because the best thing about golf courses in Australia, this is me talking. I finished the Adam Scott quote, but the reason why I agree with him about the Australia thing is their philosophy over there in Australia is very different than

than it is here. And their philosophy with how they water their courses is very differently than how we water our courses generally in the United States. In Australia,

They barely water their courses at all, which is why the courses in the sand belt play so firm and fast and Riviera plays firm and fast. So it's not a shock to see that Australians have played well here over the years. Scott also talks about the importance of scrambling and getting up and down. Obviously, that makes sense because you are inevitably going to miss some greens here. J.B. Holmes says,

Talked a little bit about the wind. If it gets windy at Riviera, it becomes absolutely brutal. And you've seen that some years where James Hahn won at six under par. Bill Haas won at seven under par. If it gets windy, it will play as hard, if not harder than most major championships. So keep an eye on the weather forecast as the week goes on. And I will talk more about that on my Tuesday show as well.

Bubba Watson talks about how you are going to get some weird balances around here and you have to stay patient on this golf course. He talks about how they do not make golf courses like this anymore and how this golf course is all about angles. Very well said, Bubba. I would agree with you there.

And Spieth talks about how this poem is a little different than the poem we see at Pebble, something I touched on earlier. Spieth also talks about the importance of

Playing creatively on this course and you have to hit a lot of different types of shots. There's there's your Augusta comparison again, right? I actually really like Jordan Spieth on this golf course. He's been pretty good here, but he's definitely in play for me this week. And then Rory McIlroy talks about and this is my favorite quote of them all. I quote.

We don't play golf courses like this anymore on tour. It's not overly long. You don't have to really bomb it off the tee, but it's real strategic. You've got to place your ball on the right sides of the fairways. You have to make sure you hit it to the right side of the greens. You can't really short sides yourself here.

You can't really get it above the pin. It's a real thinkers golf course. And it's a real treat to play something like this because we don't get to play them that often that anymore. He goes on to say, uh,

I think I saw a stat the other day where there were more three footers missed here than there were anywhere last year. And inside six feet is going to be really important here because you aren't going to be hitting the amount of greens that you are used to hitting, right? So there will be a lot of those holing out type distances for pars that will be really important.

I think that was very well said by Rory. I think that's a very important quote in terms of understanding Riviera. This is a course where

No matter what, you are probably going to hit less greens than you are used to. And unless you're chipping everything to two feet, you're going to have a lot of six to eight footers on POA. So putting inside 10 feet is something I'm definitely taking a look at this week. Okay, let's move on to what I think you should be looking at statistically. Let's start with off the seat.

and work our way through the categories. Now, I mentioned that it's really difficult to hit these fairways. And a lot of times players are hitting less than driver because the course gets very narrow in the 300 to 350 landing area. For these reasons, I'm a little lukewarm on off the tee this week. I wasn't able to find this

Large correlation in terms of guys hitting a ton of fairways translating to success here, because I think everyone's going to miss fairways. I couldn't, I couldn't find much of a correlation with fairways gained or driving accuracy or any of those ancillary driving stats.

Winners have actually ranked 40th in driving accuracy here. J.B. Holmes won, hitting about 50% of his fairways. Adam Scott won, hitting 40% of his fairways. Aaron Baddeley won, hitting 50% of his fairways. And top 10 finishers on average here have only gained 0.33 strokes off the tee per round. That is less than what they have gained short game. It's almost...

Less than three times what they have gained on approach. It's about 40% of what they have gained on approach. Whereas last week I mentioned top 10 finishers have gained almost 70%.

off the tee as they have on approach. So statistically that backs up my theory. And I think the reason why I'm not that big on off the tee here, yes, positioning off the tee always matters at Riviera, of course, but you don't have to hit driver. And if you do hit driver,

You can't really bomb and gouge this place either because the Kikuyu is just troublesome enough and the course is so well designed that you don't gain this massive leg up by hitting driver on every hole. Now you can do that. You can go down that route and have success.

J.B. Holmes, for example. But I don't necessarily think that the reason that Bubba has had so much success here really has anything to do with the fact that he's long off the tee. I think he's just really good on golf courses that you have to work the ball both ways, just like he's good at Augusta, just like he's good at the Travelers. Right now, if you are long off the tee,

Of course, at still a little bit of an advantage because these fairways are so narrow anyway that everyone is going to miss the fairways here. Um, so you'd rather be obviously closer to the green in that scenario. So I'm not saying it's like pebble beach where I'm just straight up not looking at off the tee at all. Um,

But I'm looking at it a lot less than I was last week. And I'm not really looking at any ancillary distance or accuracy stats. I think everyone's going to miss fairways. And this course is all about mid to long iron play, getting up and down and putting inside 10 feet. So I'd rather just be overweight on those categories.

Okay, iron play, yes. Despite this course not being super long, you are still going to have a lot of mid-to-long irons here. It is not a wedge course at all. So 27% of approach shots come from 150 to 175 yards. That is well above tour average. 23% of approach shots come from 175 to 200 yards.

also well above tour average and 23% come from over 200 yards right around tour average. So that is 70% of all approach shots coming from over 150 yards. And the reason for that is some players aren't always going to hit a ton of drivers here. And even if you do hit more,

more drivers, there are going to be a lot of longish par fours and narrow fairways. So you're not really going to get any rollout. If you miss these narrow fairways, leaving a lot of approaches in that 150 to 200 range. Um,

There is one drivable par four, the 10th, which I think is one of the greatest golf holes that exists. But other than that, you've got nine par fours in between 430 and 490 yards. And that's,

You know how I feel about whole distance stats. It's nails on a chalkboard to me, so we're not going to go down that route. But I'm not going overly crazy on iron play that much more than any other week because I do think Riviera has that element of...

Even the best iron players are going to miss greens. And I want to save room to give credence to stuff like short game, sand saves, putting inside 10 feet, bogey avoidance, difficult scoring conditions, stuff like that, that I think is all really important to look at. Again, this course requires a really well-rounded game. There are a lot of different ways to get it done here. I'm not overly heavy on any one main thing.

or severely underweight on any one thing either. I guess, I guess I'm a little bit underweight on off the tee, but not by a ton. Um, I'm pretty much at my average with iron play and I'm a little bit overweight on a short game. Um,

But nothing crazy. And I'm right around where I always am with putting. So you kind of need to be firing on all cylinders here. Looking at the strokes gain leaderboards for the last couple of years, it's not a lot of guys with just absolute crazy spike iron or putting weeks. It's actually a lot of guys gaining strokes across the board in all four categories. So short game, as I mentioned,

I'm a little overweight on short game this week. 12 of the top 13 last year gained strokes around the green year before 14 of the last 15. Also, I'm looking a little bit at sand saves and scrambling just anecdotal anecdotally. Um, I know these bunkers are very difficult and very deep. I have a, I have a lot of friends that play Riviera often and I,

Obviously, with a very, very low greens and regulation percentage, short game really matters and scrambling really matters.

putting another week where I have a pretty heavy weight on POA and guys who have putted well specifically at Riviera in the past. These greens are really firm and fast, not exactly like the slower POA greens that we get at Pebble. These run like

12, 12.5 on the stimp pebble runs like 10.5. So definitely looking at poet putting, but even more specifically,

putting at this course and then over a large sample size putting inside 10 feet, I think really matters because you heard Rory talk about this. And this is always the same thing at major championships, too. This is just a course where you are going to have a lot of four to seven footers for par.

because you're going to short side yourself. You're not always going to be able to chip everything to tap in range and lag putting is pretty difficult as well here. So this is a tournament that is really going to come down a lot to who can make the most five to 10 footers for par. As far as scoring stats go,

I'm not really looking at prolific birdie makers. I'm not really looking at long or short courses. I'm not really looking at par fives. Remember it's a par 71. So we only have three par fives and the first hole number one basically just plays like a long par four. It's barely over 500 yards and it's scoring average at 4.29. Um, is,

is essentially the same as the 12th and 15th holes, which are both par fours. So it's basically just like a par four and a half. Um, and what I am choosing to look at instead is difficult scoring conditions, right? And bogey avoidance. How can we identify the players that are good on those weeks where the tournament is one at 12 under par or nine under par or 14 under par?

And then as far as comps go, I really find it insulting to Riviera to compare it to any other PGA Tour courses because it's just operating on a much higher level, in my opinion. Now, if you want to look at Tori or Pebble because of the POA, that's okay with me. I would prefer to just look at putting at those courses instead of general course history because

But the only one I will have a little bit of is Augusta. And I wouldn't even call Augusta a comp. I would describe it more as a lot of the same things you have to do well at Augusta. You also have to do really well at Riviera. Putting inside 10 feet, short game, mid to long iron play.

There's a lot of strategy and nuance involved because they are both golden age designs. I know the agronomy is different. And I know the fairways are held a lot wider at Augusta. It's more of a, more of a driver course in Riviera, but they do both embody the same ethos where the emphasis is on the second shot. You have to be creative. You have to work the ball both ways. You're not going to get a lot of flat wise. And again,

That's why Bubba really likes both places. DJ really likes both places. Hideki, Rory, Xander, Rom, Sergio.

All these guys, Adam Scott, Mark Leishman, Cam Smith, top five at both in the last two years. There's your Aussie connection that Adam Scott was talking about with the courses in the sand belt. And, you know, I don't think it's a coincidence because it's it's the exact same style of golf. Now, you know what I actually do think is a solid comp here.

Southern Hills where we are going for the PGA in a few months. You have to do a lot of the same things at Southern Hills that you have to do at Riviera. So keep that in the back of your mind for the PGA. I think guys that typically play well at Riviera are also going to enjoy Southern Hills.

But since we don't have any real data on that yet, I basically just have a small weight on Augusta and a pretty decent weight on course history here at Riviera. Because as I mentioned, it is a very nuanced course. Um, Adam Scott won on his first appearance in 2005, but that is the only first time winner of the last two decades. Um,

The thing about Riviera that is fun, too, and the players is kind of like this as well. But just because I think this is important to like just because you've been good at Riviera before.

You can still absolutely miss the cut, like just because it's very it's a very difficult course. And if you're not in good form, it will expose you. I don't think it's like pebble with speed where you can show up with no form and contend.

Like Bubba's won here a bunch. He's also missed the cut a bunch. DJ's been awesome here. He's also had a couple of stinkers here. JT has had some great weeks here. He's also had some terrible ones. Rory had immaculate course history through like four appearances. Missed the cut badly last year because his game just wasn't there. So yes, I am looking at course history, but I don't think...

It's the type of course where you can say, oh, just because this guy has played well here before, I don't really care how he's playing right now. He always plays well at Riviera. I would just be a little bit careful about that because this course can really expose you pretty quickly and you still have to execute. Okay, let's talk about the model.

We've been on fire with these. So I'm feeling good about this one as well. So off the tee, I have only at 8% this week. Now approach, I have at 35%, which is right around my average. And that is a weighted combination, very heavy on strokes, gain approach, 18%. And a weighted combination of proximity from 150 yards plus, 17%.

Strokes gain around the green, short gain. So a weighted combination of strokes gain around the green, sand saves and scrambling, 14%. Putting, a weighted combination, putting on POA, 16%. Putting inside 10 feet, 4% for 20%. And then scoring stats, a weighted combo of difficult scoring conditions and bogey avoidance for 11%.

And then course history slash comp courses, weighted combination of 10% Riviera, 2% Augusta for 12%. So here are the guys that spit out and mostly what I would expect with a few surprises, but not a whole lot of surprises here. Number one, Jon Rahm, as expected.

Number two, Justin Thomas. Number three, Taylor Gooch. I think this is a great course for Taylor Gooch. We're going to have to see how Taylor Gooch performs on Sunday in Phoenix. Number four, Rory McIlroy. Makes sense. Patrick Cantlay, number five. Patrick Cantlay loves this golf course. Number six, Cameron Smith. Also makes sense. Cam Smith's played well here. He's played well at Augusta. Irons are improving. Great shortcut. Number seven.

Xander Shoffley. I think this makes a lot of sense for Xander Shoffley too. Good course for Xander Shoffley. Number eight. And then this was a surprise to me, Kevin Na. And I want to talk about Kevin Na a little bit later, but Kevin Na was number eight for me. Luke List, number nine. Hideki Matsuyama, number 10. That checks out. Sam Burns, number 11. Also checks out. Russell Henley, number 12. Hard to escape Russell Henley.

Um, 13, Will's Alatorre's makes a lot of sense. I love this course for Will's Alatorre's 14, Victor Hovland, um,

Makes a lot of sense as well. 15, Colin Morikawa. 16, Thomas Peters, which we can talk about because you kind of need to take that with a grain of salt with some of his statistics recently because he does a lot of the work on one of his work on the European tour. Adam Scott, 17, Mark Leishman, 18, Paul Casey, 19, Mito Pereira, 20. All makes sense, right?

So a guy that wasn't in the top 20 of that model, he was actually 22 that I would like to start with is Dustin Johnson. Now, Dustin Johnson has played Riviera 14 times. He's made the cut 12 times with 10 top tens, six top fives, two runner ups and a win in 2017. He has by far won.

I guess Bubba's one more. The best, but DJ's been consistently better. The best course history out of any player in this field. Now,

He still rates out pretty well here right now for me, despite not having his best stuff for a couple months now. Ball striking has still been solid. Still a good long iron player. Short game and bunker play hasn't been great. And he hasn't been making a ton of putts inside 10 feet. But I have zero concerns with him on these greens at Riviera. I love him in difficult scoring conditions.

And this course just fits his eye. He literally never loses strokes on approach here. It does not happen. And he finished eighth here last year while losing strokes putt. So he's coming off a T8 in Saudi. Pretty good.

And prior to that, his ball striking looked really good at the farmers. He gained 3.3 off the tee, 3.8 on approach, 1.3 ARG, and lost 2.2 putting through three rounds at the South course. That was vintage DJ ball striking.

So he gained 7.1 strikes ball striking for context. The last time that DJ did that, that was last November at the Houston open, right when he was on that run where he won the travelers and Northern trust, a tour championship and the masters. So peak DJ, uh,

I think he's back and he's returning to his favorite course on tour. He is DJ is very close to a lock for me this week.

I expect him to be expensive. I expect him to be popular. But I almost locked Rom last week in Phoenix, who was pushing like 26% and 11.6%. And this field is just so damn good. And I'm always going to find guys at the bottom that no one else is playing. So I like DJ a lot, and I don't think he'll be 11.6% and 30%.

Um, he will be expensive, um, because of the course history and how well he hit it at Torrey. Um, and he will garner ownership, not 30%, um, but I will be very heavy on him. And the odds is tough, man. I could see them opening DJ out like 12 to one. Um, but if he's like 18 to one,

I'd bet him to. In fact, I may just have a two-man card of him and the next guy that I'm about to talk to. We shall see. But I think it sets up so perfectly for DJ, right? He's the king of this course. He's hitting it well again. He's really due for a win. I mean, he's kind of fallen out of... He hasn't won on the PGA Tour in over a year. I mean, most people...

Most people don't really think it's a conversation who the best player in the world is right now. Most people think it's John Rahm by miles and miles. But if there is anyone else that does get mentioned, which I'm the probably only person mentioning any other player than John Rahm, which feels sacrilegious at this point, it's Colin. And I think most people would tell you that after Colin, um,

it's probably Cantlay right now or Hovland. And then maybe you kind of got to throw Hideki in there with how much he's been winning and Rory. But I don't...

I don't think DJ is ready to roll over quite yet. I think him or the other guy that I'm about to talk to is going to win this week. I think DJ might win a major this year. I talked about him in my majors preview about how Southern Hills, which I think is just perfect for him. And I think he's revving up. So I think it's time for a statement from DJ. And I think that this happens this week. Okay.

The next guy that I want to talk about, and I'm only going to talk about three guys this week because there's been a lot of pick stealing scandals going along lately. So I have to keep things kind of under wraps. And this guy is ripe for the picking, right? I imagine this guy will be very popular this week. And that is Will Zalator's. So two appearances at Riviera, uh,

Will Zaltorce has gotten miscut 15th.

Now, Zalatoris rates out very, very well for the most part. He's great off the tee, great iron player. He's one of the best in the entire field from 175 yards plus. These are the types of courses that you want to play Zalatoris on. Harder courses where you don't need to make a million putts and you have to hit a lot of five and six irons. There obviously are some concerns.

He's not a very good bunker player. He's not good inside 10 feet, but he is very good at avoiding bogeys because he hits a ton of greens. Um, he hasn't been great on POA, but historically it's actually been his best surface. And I think anytime you're on a course where everybody's going to miss some putts because of the POA, um, I think that's where Zalatoris is going to shine. And, um,

I think this is one of those courses. I think we're going to get into a situation where you're going to want to always play Zalatoris at this time of year because of...

The fact that Torrey's more difficult, that Riviera's more difficult, that they're both on POA. Wills Alatorre is great in difficult scoring conditions. He will tell you that himself. He prefers these types of courses than he does birdie fest. And I think he has way more of an advantage on these types of courses than he does birdie fest. And, you know, it is worth noting also that he gained 4.9 strokes putting at Riviera last year.

So he's done it before on these greens. He's also coming off a second place finish at the farmers. Obviously a playoff loss where he gained through three rounds, 2.8 off the tee, 7.9 on approach, 1.7 around the green and lost 1.3 putting. You are going to be pretty, you're going to be buying at what I assume is a pretty high point.

because he is coming off a high profile playoff loss. So if the price and ownership is crazy, I'll pivot, right? Um, I wouldn't bet him at under 25 to one. If I could get something in the 28 range with Sal Torres, I would take that though. Um, because I just think the way that he's hitting the ball right now is at such a high level. Um,

He's very he's very aware of his putting to write like I know that that's a concern, but I think he's very aware of it. And now that doesn't mean that he's fixed it. He had to withdraw from Pebble for covid. Right. And, you know, that's probably one thing that you can do a lot of when you have covid when you're a little under the weather. Maybe it's just hit a million putts.

And I like that now he's had a little bit of distance from the farmers. I still think he'll be very popular. But if he's in the 25 to 30 range, I will probably bet Zalatoris this week and have a two-man card of him and Dustin Johnson, depending on what DJ's odds are. Very different strategy from what I did last week, where I had five guys above 100, which

I just really like Zalatoris and DJ this week. I think the way that he's hitting it, I love this course for him. He putted well here last year. I just hope that he doesn't get crazy steamy because if we are getting a situation where he's priced next to, I don't know, Hovland coming off a miscut and getting double the ownership as Hovland or Burns maybe, then

Like, I think you should pivot and play the other guys. I've had DMs before. Like, why did you talk about this guy? And you ended up fading him. Like, yeah, that's kind of the point. I'm recording this on Sunday morning, sometimes Saturday night. It is the first golf podcast that comes out every week along with Mayo. Mayo does one too at the same time.

I don't know what price and ownership is going to be, right? I have my guesses, but I don't know. So yes, I do pivot. If you do not pivot off of the guys that may be popped in your handicapping process, once you get more information regarding price and ownership, I can tell you right now, you are going to lose playing DFS. I can say that from experience definitively.

If you just play the guys that check the most boxes from a handicapping standpoint, and that is what you are primarily looking at, you are going to lose. So I love Zala Torres from a handicapping standpoint. I love this spot for him.

But we shall see what the ownership is. We shall see what the number is, right? We shall see how popular he is. We have to guard against the collusion, against the pick stealing scandal that we have been entrenched in over the past couple of weeks. Brian Kirshner. So I like Salators a lot.

We will have to see where the wind blows with him, though. But he would be an early lean for me. Right. That is why the segment is called early leans. Right. OK, the last guy I want to talk about because we're coming up on. I don't like this going over an hour. Once it's over an hour, it's like, all right, you're just I'm rambling too much. So last guy that I want to talk about is Kevin Na.

Now, I love Kevin Na this week. I cannot like I love Kevin Na the way that I loved Hadwin the week before. I love this guy and he somewhat breaks my model, right? Like the irons have been really good. He's got the best short game in the entire field. He's unreal from 150 to 175 yards. And while he's not great, once you put him a little bit farther back, he's

He doesn't kill you either. And he's actually had some really good iron weeks at Riviera too. Top five bunker player in this field over a large sample size. I think Riviera is going to be hard this year. And I think that short game is going to matter a lot. And I think like...

87% of what you're going to be able to get from Cam Smith, who's going to be way more expensive. Um, Kevin Na is going to get you all of that, right? Like everything that you get with Fitzpatrick, who will also be more expensive. I think Kevin Na can get you all that too. So I love Kevin Na on this course. I do think it's a great course for him. Um,

He's always going to miss some cuts. Guess what? Kevin Nam misses the cut sometimes at the Sony and the Shriners too, but he's had four top tens here, three top five here. What's funny is he never gained strokes off the tee. I mean, never here at Riviera. It literally has never happened, and he still always manages to play well here.

He hits his irons really, really well here. And he's so good around the green and out of these bunkers. And Riviera is a thinking man's course. And Kevin Na is a smart player. He likes strategic golf. He tends to get the most out of his game. He'll never be mistaken for the most talented guy ever.

That you'll ever see. But he's a grinder. A term that I hate. But it's true. He finds a way to win golf tournaments. And even get in the Ryder Cup conversation. Regrettably. And finish fucking third in the FedEx Cup. Because he always is hovering. And he doesn't ever really go through prolonged slumps. Plus, he is hitting the ball really, really well right now. He was...

T28 in Saudi, but prior to that, T13 at the century gained 2.5 on approach. Then T20 at the Sony where he gained 0.4 off the tee, 5.4 on approach, gained 0.6 strokes around the green and lost 1.8 strokes putting. I do not think we can expect him to lose strokes putting again. And the irons are just really firing right now. So I don't think he's going to win.

because I think DJ or will Z will win. And I might end up doing a very top heavy card where I just bet those two guys. Right. But not is currently my favorite DFS play price and ownership dependent, obviously. And if I choose to take more of a balanced approach with my betting, nah, we'll absolutely be on it. Yeah.

but that's it. I mean, I, I had a, I'll run through a couple of the other guys that I think are good draft Kings place. Um,

I think it's a decent buy low spot on Finau, who I think you're going to get a pretty decent price and ownership on. He's not been playing well. I'll probably roll the dice with Finau. Leishman makes a lot of sense here. I like Neiman. I'm going to play some Neiman this week. Paul Casey, I'm always a sucker for Paul Casey. I think he's probably good for like a

a T 22 this week. Um, I like Maverick McNeely. Like he, everybody loved Maverick McNeely at Pebble beach. He was fine. Like he's going to be, uh,

He's going to be 7.5 this week, I think. Right. And all he does is finish in the top 40 and play well on Pola and on the West Coast. And he's not going to it's not going to be a math McNeely thing this week at all because he's only played here once and miss a cut. So I like math McNeely. I think Thomas Peters like I think Thomas Peters is going to be a guy that gets talked about a lot this week.

in our kind of Twitter echo chamber fantasy community. But I still think that the broader public is not, and the broader public will get involved in this golf tournament in terms of draftings. This is, I think we have Millie maker this week, and this is the first week without football.

So broader public will get involved in drafting. So I'm going to be looking to play a lot more of the bigger contests as well, because you're, you're just getting to play against less knowledgeable players. And I don't think the general public is going to do a lot of Thomas Peters clicking. So I think he's a guy that you'll hear a lot of,

in our community, um, you know, based, you know, from the guys that follow the European tour more closely than I do know how good he's been on the European tour lately. Um, but I still think you'll get decent ownership on, on Peters, even if he seems buzzy on Twitter. Um,

And then I had a very difficult time like finding guys at the bottom. I need to do some more digging at the bottom. I like Lanto, but I don't know how at the bottom Lanto is going to be. I think Lanto makes like too much sense this week. I could honestly see Lanto being kind of a chalky 7k guy.

similar to Aaron Wise last week because I think Lanto makes a lot of sense and this field is really top heavy. Usually I can find a million guys at the bottom that I want to play. This week I found like a million guys in the middle tier and towards the top and I think the bottom is a little bit more difficult to parse through. So Patrick Rogers was a guy that I liked but

I'll have to get back to you on the bottom. I have to do a little more digging on the bottom. Uh, and I will talk about more and all of those guys on my Tuesday show, because that will do it from us. So, uh,

schedule for this week, Tuesday scramble with Rick Gaiman, um, nine and Pacific me and Rick will both be at sorry pines together again, both Thursday and Friday, I think. So our Friday scan scramble will happen on Saturday morning. Um,

Next time on this podcast feed Tuesday, my good friend Ryan Baroff will be on to discuss Riviera. We're going to talk a little John Rom too, because, um,

I've been having good conversations with him in DMs about Jon Rahm. And we were having a very friendly argument. And it got to a point where I was like, we should just do more on a podcast about this. So we're going to do some Riviera and then we're going to do some bonus stuff at the end that I'm very excited for as well. Odds Checker articles Wednesday and Saturday morning. And I think that's it.

Enjoy the Super Bowl. Go Xander. Go Scotty, I guess, too, and Hadwin. But mainly go Xander. And have a great rest of your weekend this Sunday. Be safe.

and we'll talk soon cheers drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are just the beginning getting into a crash is another way that your world can be turned upside down your vehicle may not be the only thing that gets damaged in that crash you can face a life-altering injury or

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