cover of episode How President-Elect Trump Pulled Off The Most Miraculous Of Comebacks

How President-Elect Trump Pulled Off The Most Miraculous Of Comebacks

2024/11/6
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Ben Domenech: 2024年美国总统大选结果出人意料,特朗普成功击败哈里斯,不仅赢得了选举人票,还赢得了普选票。这标志着共和党联盟的重大转变,吸引了大量黑人和西班牙裔选民的支持。哈里斯的竞选表现令人失望,未能有效争取选民,甚至在任何地区或选区都没有超过拜登的表现。民主党在竞选后期关注错误的问题,例如对喜剧演员在麦迪逊广场花园的玩笑过度反应,而忽略了经济和移民等关键议题。哈里斯在2019年竞选期间采取的激进立场也损害了她的形象,例如她支持对非法移民进行变性手术的纳税人资助。她选择蒂姆·沃尔斯作为竞选搭档也是一个错误的决定。此外,民主党过于关注堕胎问题,而忽视了经济、犯罪、边境和安全等其他重要议题。哈里斯在处理国际事务方面也表现出无能,这使得选民对特朗普更有信心。丽兹·切尼对民主党的支持是一个巨大的错误,这损害了新保守主义的复兴。硅谷科技行业比好莱坞更了解美国民众的意愿。美国主流媒体在报道此次选举时表现糟糕,缺乏对特朗普支持者的理解。特朗普的第二个总统任期将面临诸多挑战,包括经济、外交和中东问题。他需要一个优秀的团队来应对这些挑战,并希望他的第二个任期能促进跨党派合作。特朗普的胜利是决定性的,这标志着他政治生涯的重大回归。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Donald Trump win the 2024 election despite concerns about his campaign choices?

Donald Trump won due to a strong coalition of black and Hispanic voters, particularly black men, and a shift in Hispanic demographics favoring Republicans. His appeal extended beyond traditional Republican bases, while Kamala Harris failed to outperform Joe Biden in any demographic or district, despite significant media and celebrity backing.

What were the key weaknesses in Kamala Harris's campaign?

Kamala Harris's campaign struggled due to her inability to connect with key demographics, poor performance in interviews, and failure to address critical issues like the economy, crime, and immigration. Her radical positions from 2019, such as taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries for illegal migrants, alienated moderate voters, and her running mate choice, Tim Walls, reinforced perceptions of a hidden progressive agenda.

How did Hispanic voters influence the 2024 election?

Hispanic voters significantly shifted toward Republicans, with Ted Cruz winning Hispanics by 6 points in Texas, a 35-point swing from 2018. This change reflects broader trends of Hispanic voters moving away from Democrats, driven by policy priorities and dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's focus on cultural issues over economic concerns.

What role did the media play in the 2024 election outcome?

The media's overwhelming support for Kamala Harris, including endorsements from celebrities and cultural figures like Taylor Swift, failed to sway voters. Legacy media outlets like CBS News were criticized for being out of touch with Trump voters, while tech industry figures like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg backed Trump, reflecting a broader cultural shift away from Hollywood's influence.

What challenges does Donald Trump face in his second term?

Trump must address high inflation, energy costs, and foreign policy challenges, including an exit strategy from Ukraine and managing relations with Iran. He will need a strong team to implement policies that deliver economic relief and maintain global stability, while balancing the expectations of his diverse coalition.

How did Kamala Harris's running mate choice impact her campaign?

Choosing Tim Walls as her running mate reinforced perceptions of a hidden progressive agenda, alienating moderate and swing-state voters. Walls's lack of alignment with key demographics, compared to alternatives like Josh Shapiro, contributed to Harris's inability to build a broad coalition.

Shownotes Transcript

Almost, four years ago, President Trump's political career looked dead in the water. Now he is the first President since Grover Cleveland to return to the White House after losing his reelection bid. 

Ben pontificates on how President Trump pulled it off, and how despite some of the nervousness among Republicans during the last week of the campaign after comedian Tony Hinchcliffes's Puerto Rico joke and Ann Selzer's Iowa poll, the fundamentals of this election were always in favor of 45, now 47.

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