cover of episode Within the Polls at Pew Research

Within the Polls at Pew Research

2024/7/18
logo of podcast Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
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Henry
活跃在房地产投资和分析领域的专业人士，参与多个房地产市场预测和分析讨论。
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Michael Dimock
Topics
Henry: 特朗普遇刺未遂事件可能导致其支持者投票意愿增强，同时给民主党竞选活动带来困难，难以对特朗普进行强烈攻击。特朗普或可借此机会转向更团结统一的竞选信息。J.D. Vance 的副总统提名，可能有助于特朗普赢得更多选民，特别是那些对现有政治家不满的选民。尽管近期事件影响巨大，但特朗普的领先优势依然存在，大选结果仍难以预测。 Michael Dimock: 皮尤研究中心致力于提供客观事实和信息，其民调方法注重样本量和代表性，以呈现美国公众意见的复杂性和多样性。皮尤研究中心采用邮寄问卷和在线调查相结合的方式，以应对传统电话调查响应率下降的挑战。在处理语言障碍方面，会根据具体情况采取不同的策略，例如在针对特定少数族裔群体进行调查时，会进行多语言翻译。皮尤研究中心关注美国选民对选举制度的信任度，以及社会文化议题对党派分歧的影响，致力于深入了解美国公众的真实想法和担忧。

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Henry Olsen discusses the impact of the recent assassination attempt on Trump and the selection of J.D. Vance as the VP candidate on the political landscape and public opinion polls.

Shownotes Transcript

It’s been a wicked googly of a week in American politics! To start, Henry appraises how the polls might be affected by both the attempt on Trump’s life and the announcement of an all-outsider ticket, with J.D. Vance in the VP slot. Next, he and Michael Dimock (president of the Pew Research Center) delve into the process of crafting public opinion polls that pin down the perplexing array of citizen sentiments. Lastly, he takes a look at another ad of the week — this time from a problem-solving newcomer running in Wisconsin’s 8th.