cover of episode Into the Final Turn
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Craig Gilbert
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Henry Olsen
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Karlyn Bowman
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Karlyn Bowman: 总统的民调支持率长期维持在低40%左右，不足以赢得大选。全国民调波动较大，最好取平均值。拜登在民调中保持着大约7个百分点的稳定领先优势。辩论后，部分民调可能存在党派回应偏差，特朗普的支持者可能因为不满其表现而拒绝参与民调。副总统辩论很少会显著改变总统选举民调结果。自7月1日以来，335次全国民调显示特朗普的支持率稳定在45%以上，这体现了民调的稳定性。大多数美国人很早就对特朗普的性格做出了判断，这使得最后的辩论可能对他来说是致命一击。民调机构已经开始将提前投票者与选举日投票者区分开来。许多共和党参议员候选人落后很多，与总统的民调结果相似。应该关注接近选举日的民调，以及民调机构对“可能投票者”样本的调整。目前来看，最好关注民调的平均值，因为各个民调结果差异很大。 Henry Olsen: 就民调结果、提前投票、以及选举日投票等方面与Karlyn Bowman进行了深入探讨，并就这些问题提出了自己的见解。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Karlyn Bowman discusses the stability of the presidential polls, highlighting that President Trump's approval ratings have remained steady in the low 40s, but notes fluctuations in individual polls. She emphasizes the importance of averaging polls due to their variability and discusses potential biases like partisan response bias.

Shownotes Transcript

The race has entered its last full month with twists and turns galore. Karlyn Bowman sorts the polling out for us this week while the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert gives us the state of play in the key swing state of Wisconsin. All this and three ads of the week, only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen! Source)