cover of episode An Unconventional Convention

An Unconventional Convention

2024/7/31
logo of podcast Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
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Elaine Kamarck
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Henry
活跃在房地产投资和分析领域的专业人士，参与多个房地产市场预测和分析讨论。
Topics
Henry分析了"双讨厌者"（同时不喜欢拜登和特朗普）这一群体在2024年美国总统大选中的作用。最初民调显示该群体比例很高，对选举结果至关重要。但卡马拉·哈里斯参选后，这一群体比例大幅下降，其重要性也随之降低。Henry结合民调数据，讨论了选民对候选人的好感度与其投票行为之间的关系，并指出追踪好感度是预测投票结果的有效方法。尽管一些民调显示"双讨厌者"群体几乎消失，但Henry认为该群体仍然存在且比例可观，对选举结果仍有影响。他强调，哈里斯需要争取那些对两位候选人都没有明确意见的选民，才能在与特朗普的竞争中胜出。

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Chapters
The discussion explores the impact of the 'double haters' demographic, who dislike both Trump and Biden, on the election. With Harris's entry, the group's significance is reassessed, and the importance of favorability ratings in predicting voter behavior is emphasized.

Shownotes Transcript

With Joe Biden's decision to drop out from the presidential race, the Democratic Party has been forced to improvise. But there's a method to what looks like madness! Joining Henry today is the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck — author of *Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates). *Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the process that will straighten out the party's predicament.Plus, Henry considers how Kamala Harris's placement on the ticket affects the "double haters" that have simultaneously fascinated and flummoxed pollsters; and he takes us through Wesley Bell's latest ad to get the attention of Cori Bush's base.