cover of episode A Snowball's Chance and a Path Through Heck

A Snowball's Chance and a Path Through Heck

2023/12/14
logo of podcast Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
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Henry Olson认为，尽管民调显示特朗普领先，德桑蒂斯和哈雷仍然存在赢得共和党提名的理论路径，但他们的策略和目标选民群体截然不同。德桑蒂斯的策略是争取特朗普的支持者，但他未能同时争取到那些不喜欢特朗普的共和党人和那些可能转向其他候选人的特朗普支持者。哈雷的策略是团结保守派和温和派，但她面临的挑战是，大部分共和党选民都不支持她。德桑蒂斯需要在爱荷华州赢得至少20%的特朗普支持者，并在随后的州份保持竞争力，最终目标是在超级星期二之前削弱特朗普的优势。哈雷需要在爱荷华州获得强劲的排名，并在新罕布什尔州获得第二名，才能在德桑蒂斯退出后获得优势，并在随后的州份赢得胜利。Olson认为，虽然这些路径存在可能性，但实现的概率较低。

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Henry Olsen discusses the slim chances of Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley winning the Republican nomination, outlining their different strategies and the segments of the Republican electorate they appeal to.

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While it would probably be unwise to bet on Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley winning the Republican nomination, Henry's back to remind you that it ain't impossible. This week's rant will get you up to speed on what to look out for. David Wasserman joins to break down a number of key tossups in the House and Senate, and to discuss whether last midterm’s resurgence of emphasis on regional candidate quality will hold up in congressional races during this presidential cycle.